第202集：我们的方法

这里是十分钟逆向思维播客，我是VP。我们是一档以解决方案为核心的播客节目，深入探讨逆向投资与另类金融领域。您可以在No Nonsense Forex的YouTube频道、nononsenseforex.com网站以及各大播客平台收听我们。第202期节目由Blueberry Markets赞助播出。

This is the ten minute contrarian podcast. This is VP. We are solutions based podcast, diving into the world of contrarian investing and alternative finance. You can find us hosted on the no nonsense forex YouTube channel, nononsenseforex.com, and podcast players everywhere. Episode two zero two is brought to us by Blueberry Markets.

我要重申上周的观点：他们正在赠送三个月的TradingView高级会员。无论您目前是否是Blueberry Markets的用户都无关紧要。具体细节我会放在节目说明里，但您真的应该考虑选择这家经纪商。现在您可以通过MT4、MT5和TradingView平台交易所有品种。

I'll reiterate what I said last week. They are giving away three free months of trading view premium. Even if you're a member of Blueberry Markets currently or not, it doesn't matter. I'll have all the details down below in the show notes, but you should really consider this broker anyway. You can trade everything off of m t four, m t five, and TradingView now.

外汇、加密货币、股票、指数、金属——所有交易品种都配备全球顶尖的客户服务。您还在等什么？那些在美国境外与其他经纪商交易的人，赶快加入吧。领取您的免费TradingView高级会员。

Forex, crypto, stocks, indices, metals, all of it with the best customer service in the world. What are you doing? Trading with any other broker outside of The United States. Get on board. Get your free trading view premium.

选择Blueberry Markets交易，绝不后悔。遗憾的是，Blueberry Markets不面向美国交易者。别责怪Blueberry，要怪就怪你们的政府。这里是十分钟逆向思维播客。

Trade with Blueberry Markets, and never look back. Blueberry Markets, unfortunately, is not for American traders. Do not blame Blueberry. Blame your government. It is the ten minute contrarian podcast.

在继续之前，有件事我必须说出来，因为YouTube的做法真的让我非常恼火——让我们创作者恼火的事太多了。他们根本不顾及我们的利益，明知我们依赖他们。但最近一年到一年半里，有件事频繁得令人不安：当我处理大量垃圾评论时，会先通过审核再回复。

And one thing I wanna get out of the way before we move forward, because this really, really irritates me, about YouTube. Many many things do. They don't do anything in our best interest at all as creators. They know we depend on them. But one of the things they do sometimes, and this has happened a disturbing amount of times in the past year, year and a half maybe, is that I go in and moderate comments because I get a lot of spam.

可每隔一段时间，大约3%到5%已通过的评论会莫名消失。之后有人会来询问为何评论不见了，或质疑我为何不回复。这非常不公平。上周的节目我们收到了极好的反馈，

And so I approve the comment and then I'll go back and sometimes respond to it. What happens every once in a while is I would say maybe three to 5% of all these comments that I approve completely disappear. And then somebody might come back and wonder why their comment has disappeared or wonder why I have not responded to them. And that's really unfair. We got such a great response from last week's episode.

特别是有两条写得非常用心的评论，这些听众确实采取了行动，这太棒了。我本打算认真跟进，结果偏偏就是这两条评论被删除了，让我无法回复。现在我要回应那位准备移居越南的朋友：这个决定太正确了，你很快就会后悔没早点行动。

And there were two comments in particular, that were really well, drawn out, and these people were taking action, which was awesome. And I seem to really, really be going through with it. And then these are the comments two of the comments that got deleted, and I never got to respond. So, I will respond now and say to the guy who, was moving to Vietnam, great move. You're gonna wonder why you didn't do it sooner.

未来难免会遇到挫折，但请坚信你正在做百分之百正确的事。那位来自荷兰的年轻人，我十分欣赏你的一切行动。你刚才问到此刻的情绪感受，作为一个四十多岁的人，我要告诉你这些情绪完全正常，而且在你二十多岁时会不断变化。所以如果对当前情绪感到不适，别担心，它们终会改变——不过也要准备好迎接新的情绪挑战。

There are going to be frustrations, but just know that you are 100% doing the right thing. And the guy from The Netherlands, young guy, I love everything you're doing. Your question was about the emotions you're feeling right now. I'm here to tell you as somebody who's in their forties, those emotions are completely normal and they will change a lot throughout your 20s. So if you don't like the emotions you're feeling right now, don't worry, they will change, but get ready for those new ones too.

好的，感谢各位耐心听完。现在进入正题，接下来是第202期节目。如果你还没听第201期，建议立即暂停本集，先去听完《一幅画》那期。我们不会离开，会一直在这里等你。

Okay, thank you for sitting through that everybody. Now that's out of the way. On to episode two zero two, and if you did not hear episode two zero one, you're gonna wanna pause this right now and go back and listen to a picture. Now we're not going anywhere. We'll still be right here for you.

这毫无疑问是个上下集系列。第201期已经充分说明了这种逆向思维的必要性，尤其在财务领域。因为这个世界根本不希望你财务独立——他们甚至不愿让你具备财务能力，上期我们详细讨论过这点。

But this is a two part series without a doubt. And episode two zero one illustrated the need for this type of contrarian thinking, especially in our financial lives. Because the world does not want you financially independent. They don't even want you financially capable. We spoke about that last episode.

比如学校教育会教你辨认各类恐龙——这他妈完全没用，却从不教你理财技能，而这恰恰影响着每个成年人的日常生活。这是精心设计的陷阱。三十年来人们不断抱怨，但体制毫无改变。至少美国如此，西方世界多数地区也差不多。

For example, in schools, they they teach you how to identify different types of dinosaurs, for example, which is 100% fucking useless, but they never teach you how to do anything with your money, which affects every adult on a day to day basis. This is by design. They've been complaining about this for thirty years, and they have done nothing about it. This is at least the case in The United States. I'm sure this is very similar in most parts of the Western world.

但我敢说在座各位都不愿被困在社会编程的牢笼里，而是渴望财务自由，实现人生自主。这档播客存在的全部意义就在于此，我们涵盖这个目标的每个维度。找找看还有哪个节目能做到我们这种程度？别人可能涉及局部，但只有我们覆盖全局。

But I would wager to say that most people here do not wanna be caught in a prison of social programming and would like to be financially independent and be able to do whatever they want. And this entire podcast exists for that very purpose. And we cover every aspect of this. Show me another podcast that does what we do here. And they might attack portions of this, but nobody covers the whole thing.

正如上期所说，我们新增了很多听众。此刻这期内容很像之前《我们的信念》那期，老听众会发现框架相似，只是新增了些补充说明。但对新听众而言，有必要让你们了解节目定位——上周我们讨论过这种必要性。

So, like I said, last episode, we have a lot of new people as well. This episode that's happening right now is very similar to an episode we did called what we believe. So if you guys remember that episode, this will be similar with a few new add ons and clarifications. But for anybody who is new or semi new, it's only fair you understand what you're getting into. We spoke about the need last week.

现在要谈我们的具体方法论了。不过不会深入技术细节——那些内容会在专题单集里展开。如果你对技术分析感兴趣，我们会略微提及，因为多数听众都知道我的外汇课程。这里主要分享《十分钟逆向思维》播客的独特操作方式。

Now we're gonna talk about our actual approach. Now it won't be a a deep nuts and bolts approach to exactly how we do things. That is what we do in more individual specialized episodes. If you're interested in the more technical analysis aspect of things, we briefly touch on that because the majority of people who have found this podcast are also aware of my forex material, which is a complete course on how to do this. So we just touch on a few things that are unique to the way we do things here at the Ten Minute Contrarian podcast.

所以寻找像月度图表这样的内容，比如止损和止盈，这些应该能让你基本掌握要领。如果你在寻找可用的指标，我再强调一遍，我在YouTube频道上有完整课程你该去看看。如果你去那里搜索'指标档案系列'，现阶段我已经为大家提供了许多优质指标可供选择，你会看到海量选项。如需进一步帮助，我们还有完整的Discord社群，链接在nononsenseforex.com/faqs。

So look for episodes like the monthly monthly chart, like stop loss and take profit, and that should be able to get you most of the way there. Now if you're looking for an indicator to use, I'll say it again, I have an entire course that you should probably take on my YouTube channel. But if you go there and you type in indicator profile series, at this stage I have just handed people really great indicators they can use and you will have many, many to choose from. And if you need further help, we have an entire Discord. The link is going to be at nononsenseforex.com/faqs.

当我说你已获得全方位保障时，你就是获得了全方位保障。现在言归正传——我们Tenet Conchurion播客团队理解非对称回报的重要性，即偏向正收益的不均衡回报。仅靠股市可能无法让我们致富，尽管它历史表现优异。

So when I say that you're covered from every angle, you are covered from every angle. Now let's get to it. We here at the Tenet Conchurion podcast understand the need for asymmetrical returns. That is lopsided returns to the upside. We probably don't have enough money to simply get rich off the stock market as well as it has done historically well.

这对我们来说远远不够。我们初始资金不足，入场时机也不够早。要想真正达到目标，我们需要更可观的超额收益。因此非对称收益正是本频道重点追求的方向。

That's probably not enough for us. We didn't start with enough money. We didn't get in this game early enough to really matter. So in order to really get where we want to get to, we are going to need more outsized gains. So asymmetry is one of the main things we look for and go after on this channel.

初次听到这个观点时，人们可能会觉得这非常冒险。确实，如果操作不当就会很危险——再次强调，世界上超过99%的人都用错了方法。但若以理性成熟的姿态正确操作，这与其他投资并无二致，唯一的区别在于：收益会大得多。那么VP，该如何以成人思维应对？

Now, what when people hear this for the first time, they might be saying, well that sounds really risky and really dangerous. It is if you do it incorrectly and most people, put this number out there again, over ninety nine percent of people out there in this world, I can guarantee you, do this incorrectly. If you do this correctly and take an intelligent adult approach, it's no different than anything else. With one exception, The gains are much bigger. And so VP, how do we approach this like adults?

我不太明白你的意思。首先，我们要拥抱长线思维——我说的是真正的长期主义。你要明白这些收益可能瞬间实现，也可能需要五到七年时间。你必须接受并适应这个时间跨度。

I don't really get what you're saying. Well, for one, we embrace the long game. When I say long game, I mean the very long game. You have to understand that these gains could happen instantly or they could happen five to seven years down the road. And that's the time frame you really have to look at and be comfortable with.

正如许多听众可以证明的，这绝对值得。虽然仍会遭遇亏损，但都无足轻重，因为收益足以弥补。心理上你要做好准备：我们的投资周期非常长，只用闲钱投资。若动用必需资金，或可能需要的资金，就会彻底打乱计划——你会忍不住过早撤资。

As a lot of people who listen to this podcast can tell you, it is absolutely worth it. You will still take losses, but it won't won't matter, because the gains more than make up for it. So psychologically you have to prepare yourself for this by understanding that our time horizon is very long, and we only invest money that we don't need. When you invest money that you rely on, or you think you may have to rely on it, it completely messes up what you're trying to do. You will be tempted to pull that money out way too early.

与其坐等遗忘，当然你可以每月查看电子表格记录，但关键点在于：你担忧的那些紧急状况和极端情况如果真的发生，只需将投资资金转回银行账户即可。投资不是消费，只是资金的重新配置。

Rather than just sitting back and forgetting about it. I mean, sure you have it on a spreadsheet, you check the spreadsheet every month or so, but that's about it. But here's the thing, this emergency situation, this worst case scenario that you keep fritzing out about, if it ever happened, you just simply move the money from the investments back over to your bank account. When you invest in something, you're not spending that money. You are simply relocating it.

这听起来非常明显，但对大多数人来说却很难理解。但一旦你弄明白了这些事，恭喜你。你现在可以投资那些回报极高的项目，真正成为少数以正确方式行事的人之一。当你把这两件事结合起来时，会发生惊人的变化，简直就像炼金术。

And this sounds really obvious, but it's very hard for most people to understand. But once you have figured these things out, congratulations. You can now invest in things that pay you very, very well and actually be one of the selected few people who do it the right way. It's amazing what happens when you put these two things together. It's like alchemy.

现在你可能还在说，VP，你谈到的许多不对称投资最终会归零。没错，确实如此。但这里还有另一面：这其中也有方法可循。我们试图寻找那些必然会发生的事情，那些未来不可能不出现的事物。

Now you still might be saying, VP, a lot of these asymmetrical investments that you're talking about go to zero. Well, yes, they do. And here's the other part of it. There's a method to this as well. We attempt to find the things which are inevitable, things that can't not happen in the future.

以加密货币为例，我们几乎可以确定这就是支付、计算以及许多领域的未来。既然如此，我们如何避免像许多人那样，即便投资了必然趋势却仍血本无归？首先，我们不做我刚才说的那些事，而是坚持长期策略——尤其是在全新行业里必须这样做。众所周知，这些事物需要很长时间来创造、完善和实施。但你不能等到它们完全成熟，因为那时价格通常已大幅上涨。

So things like crypto, for example, we pretty much know that this is the future of payments and computing and a lot of different things. So that being said, how do we not end up like a lot of people and lose our shirt anyway even though we're putting money down on something that's inevitable? Well, one, we don't do what I just said and play the long game, which you have to do, especially in a brand new industry. You know, we all know by now these things take a very long time to create, perfect and then implement. But you can't just wait until they're done because then the price is usually going to be a lot higher.

所以你必须及早布局，但也不能太早。关键在于：你可以等待加密货币市场经历阶段性调整（这种情况经常发生），然后冷静观察你看好的细分领域或整个行业，找出其中的佼佼者。在这个阶段，哪些是显而易见的赢家？

So you have to speculate early, but not too early. Here's the rub. You can wait for a bit of a washout in the crypto market because they happen all the time. Then you sit back, take a look at the sectors that you are very bullish on or just the sector as a whole and find out who the best of breed companies are. Who are the obvious winners at this stage of the game?

哪些企业经历过高峰与低谷，证明自己不仅不是来坑人的，而是打算长期立足？你就要聚焦这些标的，并随时间推移逐步加仓。不要像小孩般天真地说'我在Avalanche上能赚15倍，但在Thunder Monkey上能赚2000倍'——首先你根本不知道未来实际回报会怎样。

Who have been through the highs, been through the lows, and shown that they are not only not here to screw people, but they are here to stay. And you focus on those. And you add on to those positions as time passes. You don't approach this like a small child and say, well, I can get a 15 to one return on Avalanche, but I can get a 2,000 to one return over here on Thunder Monkey. First of all, you have no idea what these returns are gonna be in the future.

完全可能是零回报。其次，这跟买彩票几乎没区别。而众所周知，彩票是对穷人的征税，因为穷人不了解金钱的运作规律。政府总会确保他们的钱被慢慢收走——你确定想掉进这个陷阱吗？

Absolutely zero. Two, this is almost no different than playing the lottery. And as we all know, the lottery is a tax on poor people because poor people don't know anything about money. And as usual, governments will make sure that their money is taken away from them over time. You know, is that the bucket you wanna be in?

因为你正在主动跳进去。多数人不懂的是：在那些更有可能成真的大趋势里，你依然能获得惊人的超额回报。做个逆向思考者并不难——只要反其道而行，别像那些22岁就渴望兰博基尼的毛头小子那样鲁莽，结果反而会很好，你很快就能迎头赶上。

Because that's where you're putting yourself. You know, what most people don't understand is you can still get crazy outsized returns in the larger plays. The plays that have a much higher probability of actually becoming something later on. I mean, it's not that tough contrarians. You just simply do the opposite of what a dumb little kid would do who's desperate to get a Lamborghini when they're 22, and things are probably going to work out pretty well for you, and you can catch up in a very short amount of time.

现在转到下一条内容，我刚讲完加密货币，因为它完美体现了这个市场中我们可以充分利用的非对称必然性。但我们这里要确保，必须确保分散投资。我们不会对任何事物盲目狂热，无论多么相信它。因为我们知道许多其他领域也存在非对称必然性。自金价1600美元/盎司时，我就在频道里持续讨论贵金属。

Now on to the next line I have here, and I just got done talking about crypto because that's a really perfect example of the asymmetrical inevitabilities that we have in this market that we can have taken great advantage of. But, we here make sure, we make damn sure, that we spread our investments out. We are not pie eyed, cultish maxis in anything, no matter how much believe in it. Because we know there are asymmetric inevitabilities in a lot of other areas too. I've been talking about precious metals on my channel since gold was at $1,600 an ounce.

就像加密货币一样，你可以通过操作矿业股并坚持选择优质标的来撬动收益。它们可能会让你沮丧，但一旦启动就会势如破竹。能源是必然需求。供应可能起伏，但长期来看需求只增不减。这里蕴藏着大量我们已把握住的重大机遇。

And just like crypto, you can leverage this by playing mining stocks and sticking to a lot of the better ones. They are going to frustrate you, but when they run, they run. Energy is inevitable. The supply may go up and down, but the demand does nothing but grow, at least long term. And there are so many huge opportunities here, opportunities we have already taken advantage of here.

正因这种必然性，在能源领域投资进展较慢的标的也无妨。因为能源是万物根基。这本质上是在押注赛道而非单匹赛马——这正是我们推崇的。你仍能获得可观回报，尤其在能源领域——这也引出我的下个观点：我们认为分红简直是作弊码。顺便说句，很多能源股会因你的投资而持续派息。

And because of this inevitability, it's okay, especially in the energy sector to go ahead and invest in things that move a bit slower. Because energy, for example, is at the root of so many things. You know, you're more or less betting on the race and not the individual horse, which we love here. Because you can still get nice returns, especially on energy because, and this moves me on to my next point, we also believe that dividends are an absolute cheat code. And a lot of energy stocks, by the way, will pay you over and over simply for investing in them.

我常说要先获得非对称收益后再投资分红股——我们多数人已实现这点。但你完全可以（我认为绝对应该）在现有非对称投资同时进行分红投资。虽然分红有时需要权衡取舍，我理解双方观点。但在我看来，分红投资在各方面都优于标准投资。

I often talk about investing in dividend stocks after you have made asymmetrical gains, which a lot of us already have. But you can, and I think you absolutely should, do this alongside the asymmetrical investments you already have. Because in many ways, I know there's trade offs with dividends sometimes. I understand both sides. But in my opinion, this dividend investing is superior to standard investing in every way.

年末时，盈利者能在原有收益上获得额外分红；亏损者也可能因分红完全抵消损失。资深交易者都明白这有多重要甚至不公平。你根本不该（也不应）全仓那些可能暴涨暴跌的标的。我们投资的标的归零概率微乎其微——你懂我意思。

After the end of the year, you get a bonus on top of what you already made if you have a gain. And if you have a loss, that entire loss might be completely mitigated because of the dividends that you got paid. You know, people who've been in the trading game for a while understand just how significant and almost unfair this is. Like, you absolutely don't and probably shouldn't have an entire portfolio of things that are so volatile that could either go to the moon or damn near go to zero. Now the things we invest in have microscopic chance of going to zero, but you understand what I'm saying.

这一切都回归到不要成为绝望的投资者。孤注一掷会毁了你。用赢家的姿态下注，以富人的思维投资。通过投资那些终将以某种方式厚报你的标的来实现这点。

And, you know, this all goes back to not being a desperate investor. Desperation will kill you. Bet it like you got it. Invest the way somebody who's already rich would invest and carry that mind set forward. And you can do this by investing in things that will likely pay you very well one way or another.

我刚阐述完进攻策略——如何获得远超常规股市投资的超额收益。如果我们还没充分展现差异化，那么最大区别在于：我们同样精通防守。妙处在于，你既能防守避险，应对市场或世界的任何危机，同时还能从中盈利。关键是要攻守兼备。

Now I just got done talking about offense and all the ways that we can play offense and get outsized returns compared to somebody who just invests in the regular stock market. One of the biggest things that separates us from them, if we weren't already separating ourselves out as much as we possibly could, is that we also understand defense as well. And you know what's great? You can play defense and cover your ass from pretty much any horrible situation that may arise in the market or in the world and still make money off of that defense. But the important part is that you play both.

我们有几个方法。首先是技术分析方面。我们相信月度图表。你想讨论作弊代码？天啊。

Now there's a couple ways we do this. Number one is on the technical analysis side. We believe in the monthly chart here. You wanna talk about cheat codes? My god.

节目一播出你们就看到了。你们回头查看了自己喜欢品种的月度图表，完全印证了我的观点，对吧？关键在于——我不明白为什么人们不全力关注这点——但事实就是没人关注。只有我们懂。你要做的就是不沦为普通投资者，每次市场下跌都被坑得血本无归。

As soon as that episode came out, you guys saw it. You went back and looked at the monthly chart on some of the things you like, and you saw exactly what I was talking about, didn't you? Now what this does, and I don't know why everybody isn't just completely tuned into this, but they're not at all. It's just it's kinda just us. What you can do is you cannot be like your average investor and absolutely take it in the b hole every time there is a downturn in the market.

交易员都懂这个。想想看，如果能消除70%的亏损，你的账户会怎样？简直完美。但可悲的是，那些长期持有派根本不懂这套。

Traders understand this. You know, what would happen if we just eliminated, like, 70% of your losses? What would your account look like then? It would look amazing. But unfortunately, you know, your buy and hold forever people don't know how to do this.

说真的，上帝保佑他们的耐心。这部分我认可。但老兄，没必要死守一两年，为这种理念硬扛亏损。你完全可以锁定盈利。

And, you know, it god love their patients. You know, you have to have that. I'll give them this part. But, man, you don't have to sit there for a year or two years and just take losses because of this ideology. You know, you can bank some wins.

当月度图表显示'嘿，这波行情可能持续'时，就把资金撤出来等风暴过去。然后坐着看别人被做空收割，而你套现的股票/黄金等资产却在不断增值——其他资产都在贬值。告诉我这难道不是更优策略？当然有时会判断错误。

And then when the monthly chart says, hey, we might be in for it for a while, pull that money off the table and wait for the storm to pass. And then sit there and watch everybody else take in the shorts while the new found cash that you just cashed your stocks out for or gold or whatever is doing nothing but gaining value as everything else gets cheaper. Explain to me how this is not a superior approach. Are you going to be wrong sometimes? Well, sure.

技术分析并非完美。市场没有确定性，只有概率性。但这正是妙处——我们的方法让概率站在我们这边。

Technical analysis is not perfect. You know, markets are not deterministic. Are probabilistic. But that's what's great. Because of our approach, we have those probabilities on our side.

回到防守话题。如果你不理解也不接受防守策略，那真不适合听这档播客。没有什么比知道自己能抵御任何风险更让人安心了。就像上期说的，我们被灌输'坏事永远不会发生'的信念。在西方世界，八十年代、九十年代、二月和2010年代大部分时间确实如此（除了少数例外）。

But back to defense. If you don't understand and embrace the defensive game, then you are really not made for this podcast. Because there is no better peace of mind than knowing that you are protected from anything that can come your way. Again, like I was talking about last episode, we have been programmed to be assured that nothing bad will ever happen. And in the Western world, during the eighties, nineties, February, and most of the twenty tens, that was pretty much the case with a few exceptions.

但在这个十年里，正如我们经常讨论的，表面的光鲜已出现裂痕。我们见证了前所未见的事物，目睹了西方社会每个领域、每项指标首次在我们有生之年全面下滑，且看不到尽头。我们也看到当危机发生时，政府往往手足无措。这已成为某种必然——只要他们能做，就一定会做。那些我们曾认为绝不可能发生的事。

But this decade, as we've been talking about a lot, you know, it's there's cracks in that veneer. We we we have seen things we have never seen before, and we have seen everything, every metric, everywhere in western society at least, trend downwards for the first time in our lives with very little end in sight. And we have also seen when certain things happen that our governments are generally not very good at handling it. And it's come to be one of those things that if they can do it, they will do it. Things that we never thought they would do.

但当灾难降临——愿上帝保佑不要发生——我们如今深知他们不仅可能，而且必定会出手。看看2020年，看看加拿大的卡车司机抗议，看看英国数百万被银行封杀的人，美国同样如此。看看他们如今把你的税款用在了什么地方。

But when things go wrong, god forbid anything goes wrong, but when they do, we now know that not only can they, but they absolutely will. Look at 2020. Look at the trucker protest in Canada. Look at the millions of people debanked in The UK, and The US has done this too. Look at where they put your tax dollars nowadays.

这让你愤怒吗？令你恼火吗？其实不必。是的，这正是我们节目要探讨的。

Does it make you mad? Does it aggravate you? It actually shouldn't. Yeah. That that's what we talk about on this show.

我们不是那种终日对空咆哮的庸众——那是农民的把戏。如果你做好防守，守住那些对手无法染指的东西——正如上期节目所言，他们总在某种程度上与你为敌，无论是短线操作还是长线布局。他们从不是你的盟友，从不为你谋利。

We're not one of these people screaming into the sun every day. That's what peasants do. If you play proper defense and hold on to things that those who are working against you can't fuck with, because as we explained last episode, they are always working against you in some way, whether they're playing the short game or the long game. They are never on your side. They are never working in your best interest.

这正是防守艺术的精妙所在。拥有财富固然美好，但确保财富安全无虞才是至高境界。普通富豪往往过度集中于单一领域和地域，生活通常一团糟。正如我常说的，我认识这类人。你会听到他们的血泪史。

And this is where defense really becomes the beautiful game. Having money is great, but having money and making sure nobody can fuck with you and being bulletproof is unmatched. Your average rich person is so overleveraged into one thing and one place that their life's usually a mess. Like I said before, I know people like this. And you'll hear people tell stories.

是啊，我在上次金融危机中输得精光。为什么？怎么可能？你说的仿佛是外星语言。

Yeah. I got completely wiped out during the last financial crisis. Why? How? Like, you're speaking a language I don't understand.

你怎么不做分散投资？怎么不做好防守？这就是我要说的重点。持有黄金、比特币、外汇等资产，运用我们的知识将现金兑换成更优质的货币，再适时换回——这足够做一整期节目了。

How were you not spread out? How were you not playing defense? You know, so that kinda gets into what I'm talking about here. Holding things like gold, like Bitcoin, like other foreign currencies, and using what we know to actually trade your cash for better cash and then back again. That was a whole episode.

这不仅是一种分散自身风险的方式，更是抵御法定货币贬值的护盾——这种贬值实实在在地伤害着每个人。试想若所有人都深受其害唯独你幸免。我们已探讨过至少六种自我保护的策略，你不仅应当践行，更要多元化实施——为何进攻时分散投资，防守时却要集中所有？这引出了我们节目反复强调的主题：打破地域编程。我们总把自己禁锢在成长之地，甘愿终生纳税并承受当地政府的一切决策，而这正是他们乐见的。

This is one way you not only spread yourself out, but guard yourself against fiat debasement, which affects literally everybody in a negative way. Imagine if it affected almost everybody in a negative way except for you. And we have probably gone over at least a half dozen different ways you can protect yourself here. And not only should you, you should do multiple different types because why would you spread your investments out when it comes to offense and not spread everything out when it comes to defense, which leads me into something we talk about more and more on this show as time goes on. And that is spreading out where your programming that we have rooted ourselves down to the place we grew up and have just decided to pay taxes there and be affected by everything that those governments do for the rest of our lives because this is exactly what they want.

他们最忌惮的，就是看透这套把戏且与出生地羁绊极浅的人——这类人你无法控制，因为他们本就不受控制。实现这点需要全面分散，包括你自身。资金外散方面：持有黄金是绝佳选择，加密货币也是脱离银行体系的好方法。但银行仍是必要之恶，若运用得当，也能带来巨大收益。

The last thing they want is somebody who gets it and somebody who has minimal ties to the place where they were born, and therefore, somebody who you cannot control because they are uncontrollable. And you accomplish this by spreading everything out including yourself. On the spreading your money outside, having money in gold is a great way. Having money in crypto is a great way outside of the banking system. But banks are still very necessary, and if you do it right, can be very, very beneficial too.

至少...至少你不会被单一机构束缚。这听起来很疯狂，但普通人确实甘之如饴。尽情享受吧——我是说，享受被银行随意摆布的滋味：第一，分行金库甚至没有足够现金兑付你的存款；第二，他们以10倍甚至更高杠杆将你的钱贷给别人。

But at the very least, at least, you know, you won't be tied to one. That is bananas, but that's what your average person does. Have fun with that. I mean, have fun being controlled by the whims of a bank, which one, at the bank branch, they don't even have enough cash to back up your money. Two, they have lent your money out to other people at a rate of 10 to one or even more.

商业银行层面的操作大多与你的利益背道而驰，但它们仍是必要的恶。最佳应对方案是把自身分散到多个国家的多家银行。即便同国内部分散也好过不做。若你不愿受制于某家银行的任意决策和失误，又何必接受被单一国家束缚？这些国家早已证明它们不在乎你的利益。

Like, nothing they do on the commercial level is in your best interest most of the time, but they are still a necessary evil. So the best way to combat this is to spread yourself out across multiple banks in multiple countries. Spreading yourself out across multiple banks in the same country is better than nothing. But if you don't like the idea of being tied to one bank and the whims of what they do and the mistakes that they make, why are you okay with doing that in one country? Countries who have already shown that they don't do anything in your best interest.

当世界陷入危机时，它们会不择手段——历史已证明这点。所以你至少需要把钱分散到不同银行，这没想象中困难。即使作为美国人，虽然难度稍大但仍可实现，还能远程操作。若想更进一步，可以叠加我们常谈的另个要素：获取他国居留权。

And if the world ever goes south in any way, they've shown that if they can, they will. So you need to spread your money out across several different banks at least, and this is not as hard to do as you think it is. Even if you're American. If you're American, it will be a bit harder, but still very possible, and you can do this remotely if you want to. But if you really wanna get the best of it, you can add on the other part we talk about all the time here, and that is residency somewhere else.

几乎无需居住要求就能办到，实在不行甚至不必移居。但你很可能想住过去——特别是非西方国家。正如我们常说的：穷人总是最先遭殃，中产紧随其后，唯有富人能绝缘于多数危机。

You can do this with almost no presence requirements, so you don't even have to live there if you can't do it. But you will probably want to live there, especially if it is a country outside of the Western world. Because what we said before here too, the poor always get screwed. The middle class, what's left of them, gets screwed next. And the only people who are really insulated from a lot of this are the rich.

即便采用不对称投资策略——毕竟这是场持久战，我们无法预判这些措施何时完全生效——除非做两件大事，否则致富仍需时日：第一，利用外籍居留许可的附加优势，选择免税/低税/穿透税制辖区，大幅降低年缴税款。归根结底，关键不是你赚多少，而是能留住多少。但主流教育从不教我们这样思考——他们怎么会呢？

Now even with asymmetrical investing, because we you know, you have to play the long game here, we don't know how long it's gonna take for these things to completely do what they are supposed to do, it's going to take you a while to become rich unless you do two very major things. One, leverage the extra ability a foreign residence permit gives you by getting one in a tax free or very low tax or pass through tax jurisdiction and making the taxes you pay every year go way down. At the end of the day, it's not what you make, it's what you keep. But we are not trained to see things this way. Why would we?

他们想让你缴纳尽可能多的税款，好让他们窃取这些钱去挥霍在毫无意义的事情上。这些事情绝对不符合你的最佳利益。我就这么直说吧。虽然我不愿称之为第一步，但这确实是关键一步。因为你能立即做的就是获取那些居留许可，那些临时或有时是永久的签证，然后直接搬去一个对你更优待的地方生活。

They want you to pay as much tax as possible so they can steal it and go spend it on stupid shit. Things that things that are certainly not in your best interest. Let's put it that way. So that is, I'm not gonna say step one, but that's a major step. Because what you can do instantly is get those residency permits, those temporary and sometimes permanent visas, And just simply live somewhere else that treats you a lot better.

所谓更优待，我指的是你会成为富人。如果你能找到在网上赚取西方货币的方法——再说一次这并不难。有人会说，我可不想降薪。好吧，如果你降薪20%，但税率从40%降到更低，实际收入会怎样？简单算笔账就明白了。

And by a lot better, I mean, you become a rich person. If you can find a way to make Western money online, which again is not hard to do. People are like, well, I don't wanna take pay cut. Well, yeah, if you take a 20% pay cut, but you're paying 40¢ on the dollar, what does that give you? Like do the simple math here guys.

但当你踏足某些国家的那一刻，你就自动成为前5%的富裕阶层。在某些地方甚至是前1%。作为富人在这些国家能享受的生活品质，其价值远超在超市买不到最爱麦片这种小事。这就像同时点燃蜡烛两端般高效。用聪明的方式发起绝佳攻势。

But the moment you step foot in some of these countries, you become a top five percenter. And in some cases, a top one percenter. And the type of life you can lead in countries like this, as a rich individual, are worth 10,000 times over no longer being able to find your favorite cereal at the supermarket. So really like working the candle at both ends. Crazy good offense done in an intelligent way.

再加上常识性防御——确保无论发生什么，你都有完善的绝缘保护和防弹措施。不仅要拥有不可触碰的资产，更要让自己变得不可触及：不过度依赖单一地点，并在现有位置实现财富自由。相信我，这个话题我们会深入探讨。我们在此涵盖所有方面，因为反对者们，更好的生活确实存在。只需要做到两点：第一，思维转换。

And common sense defense, making sure that no matter what happens to you, you are well insulated and bulletproof, not only by having things that can't be touched, but also by being untouchable, by not being over leveraged to one place, and becoming rich in the place where you do exist. And believe you me, we're gonna be talking a lot more about this part as time goes on. We cover all of those bases here because there's a better life out there contrarians. And all it takes there are two things. One, a mindset shift.

要知道，摆脱长期以来的思维定式并不容易。但就像某些事——一旦顿悟就再也回不去了。真正需要的是付诸实践的勇气。

You know, getting away from the way we were programmed all this time. And I know that's difficult. But it's it's like one of those things like once you're there, you're there. Once you see it, you can't unsee it. And then actually having the balls to execute on it.

你究竟还愿意承受多少痛苦？在崩溃之前还能忍耐多少折磨？其实你现在就可以未雨绸缪，朝着更好的生活努力。因为更好的生活就在那里——不必像其他人那样逆来顺受。就像桶里的螃蟹，他们只想拉你一起沉沦。

I mean, much more pain are you willing to take? How much more misery are you willing to take before it gets too much? You you can get ahead of it now and work towards a better life because there's a better life out there. You don't just have to sit there and accept it like everybody else does. And like crabs in a bucket, they want you to experience the same with them.

那是他们的选择，他们的人生。而你的命运掌握在自己手中。既然如此，未来会怎样？我想这部分完全取决于你。

That's their decision. That's their life. You get to be in control of yours. So that being said, what will it look like? I guess that part's really up to you.

正如我们所知，有些事情确实比其他事更耗时，但你必须全部完成，尤其是那些需要时间的事情。正因如此，越早开始行动越好，等待的时间就越少。就让那些困在自己建造的牢笼里的人袖手旁观，称你为疯子吧——当你知道自己正在打造真正想要的生活时，你只是先行一步罢了。

And as we already know, some things are quicker than others, but you have to do them all, especially the things that take time. And because they do take time, the sooner you execute on them, the better, the less you have to wait. But let those people who are stuck in their own self made prisons sit back and call you crazy when you know that you're crafting the life that you actually want and that You're just early.