第227集：2025-26白银挤兑

这里是十分钟逆向思维播客。我是VP。我们是一档以解决方案为核心的播客，深入探讨逆向投资和另类金融的世界。您可以在'No Nonsense Forex'的YouTube频道、nononsenseforex.com网站以及各大播客平台收听我们。第227期节目由蓝莓市场赞助播出。

This is the ten minute contrarian podcast. This is VP. We are solutions based podcast diving into the world of contrarian investing and alternative finance. You can find us hosted on the No Nonsense Forex YouTube channel, nononsenseforex.com, and podcast players everywhere. Episode two twenty seven is brought to us by blueberry markets.

蓝莓市场已经发展壮大。他们正在扩张，规模越来越大，看到这一切真是再好不过了。我刚开始为蓝莓做推广时，他们还只是中小规模。如今已今非昔比。

Blueberry markets is all growed up. They are expanding. They are getting bigger and it is the best thing in the world to see. When I first started affiliating for blueberry, they were kind of small to medium. Now they're much bigger.

他们现在新加坡、马来西亚、迪拜都设有办公室，支持MT4、MT5和TradingView交易平台，最近还新增了C trader。您可以直接在首选平台上交易外汇、金属、美股50强、加密货币等，同时享受全球顶尖的客户服务——特别是通过我的专属链接注册时。操作流程与Bybit完全一致：下拉查看节目备注，点击蓝莓市场博客，注册链接就在其中，立即获取永久保障支持。

They have offices now in Singapore, Malaysia, Dubai along with MT4, MT5 and TradingView. They have now added C trader to the mix. So you can trade Forex, metals, the top 50 traded American stocks, crypto, all right there on the platform of your choice along with the world's best customer service especially if you click my link and the protocol here is exactly the same as it is with Bybit. Go down to the show notes, click the blueberry markets blog. The link will be in that blog and get yourself signed up and have that protection and that backing now and forever.

这里是十分钟逆向思维播客。虽然我还没正式向所有黄金白银投资者宣布——但恭喜你们！耐心终于得到回报，这完美诠释了我们的投资理念：有时等待比预期更久，但回报绝对值得。期间难免有人说'当初投资别的早就赚翻了'，但记住：这些人往往自己根本不投资。

This is the ten minute contrarian podcast and I don't know I officially said it to all my gold and silver people out there but congratulations you. Patience has paid off here and it's a great metaphor for what we do here because sometimes you just have to wait longer than you want to wait but the payoff is 100% worth it. And during that time you're going to have to endure people saying well you could have put your money here and made a lot more. But those people one, typically don't even invest. Just remember that.

其次，这些人要么只持有0.0001个比特币就敢指点江山，要么第三——直白地说——就是比我们差远了。当你看准贵金属这种必然升值的资产，剩下的只是时间问题。价格长期横盘反而是好事，让我们能积累更多筹码。

Two, have like 0.0001 Bitcoin and think they now have a platform to tell other people how to invest. Or three, they just suck compared to us. There is no other way to put it. Because when you have something as inevitable as precious metals are, it's just a matter of freaking time. And if anything, if price isn't moving for long periods of time, that's a good thing because it allows us to accumulate more.

说到积累，今年有件事让我这个主播特别惊讶：新听众可能不知道，每年一月我会做四个年度展望专题——宏观分析、贵金属、能源和加密货币，因为这正是节目主要探讨的四大领域。往年宏观专题点击量总是最高，但2025年却出现了转折。

And accumulate more I think a lot of you did because what was really surprising to me this year as a podcaster was if you guys don't know if you're fairly new at in January, I do outlook episodes for the rest of the year. I do four. I do macro, that's the first one and then I do precious metals and then we do energy and then we do crypto. Crypto because these are the four things we predominantly tackle the most here on the show and every year macro gets the most views. Anytime I do a macro episode seems to do really really well here but not in 2025.

神奇的是，通常全年收视垫底的黄金白银专题，今年竟成为最热门的一期——恰恰就在金银启动真正行情（至少是第一波行情）之年。这太令人欣慰了，毕竟金银（尤其是矿业股）横盘了那么久，唱衰者总爱拿来说事。但你可以这样回应：听着，我们投资的是未来，不是过去或现在。

Somehow, the stars aligned to where the Gold and Silver episode, typically one of the least watched episodes of the year, just happened to be the most. The very year where gold and silver made their real move, at least the first one. We'll talk about that. But it was so great to see because again, gold and silver had been moving sideways, the mining stocks especially had been moving sideways for such a long time and the naysayers love to point that out. But what they don't understand and what you can always tell them if they start giving you a hard time is look guy, we invest for the future, not the past, not the present.

所以，当其他市场上涨而我们的市场横盘时反而是好事。这说明价值就在我们市场。我经常对山寨币说这话，因为比特币极端主义者令人难以忍受，更别提他们愚蠢又激进，根本不懂投资却自以为是。我也对那些认为金银是老人游戏、别处机会更好的人说这话。我认为尤其在风险回报比方面，没有比这更好的选择。

So, if other things are going up while our market is moving sideways then good. That means our market is where the value is. I say this with altcoins a lot because Bitcoin Maxis are insufferable, not to mention aggressively stupid and they do not investing even though they think they do. And I say it to people who think gold and silver is an old man's game and there are better opportunities elsewhere. I don't think there is especially in terms of upside versus downside.

持有实物金属让你更擅长防守而非进攻，而投资矿业股票则让你更擅长进攻而非防守。市场上仍有大量机会，这正是我想在第227期节目中探讨的。黄金已进入价格发现阶段创下新高，白银也曾触及新高后回落。那些媒体和推特上预测糟糕却粉丝众多的人声称金银已见顶，但正如我之前推文所说，他们这种论断缺乏依据，只是轻率地断言见顶，却不说能持续多久？

And your ability to play defense more than offense by holding the metal and your ability to play offense more than defense by going into the mining stocks. And there is still so much opportunity out there which is what I want to talk about in episode two twenty seven. Now we had our run up, gold has been in price discovery, it's been at new highs. Silver hit a new high and then came back down and what people out there in the media and on Twitter who somehow amass big followings even though their predictions are awful are saying that gold and silver have topped but as I tweeted out before, when they say that they don't give us enough detail. It's a very kind of flippant, kind of hand wavy thing, to say, okay it's topped but for how long?

你这些判断从何而来？凭什么说见顶？只是你的感觉吗？因为我们不靠感觉投资交易。难道你这个外行是在看RSI指标吗？

And where are you getting this information from? What is making you say that it's topping? Does it just feel that way to you? Because we don't invest by feel, we don't trade by feel. Are you maybe looking at the RSI, you amateur?

因为真正的外汇交易者都知道，RSI指标可以在超买区维持很长时间。你究竟参考什么指标？看的是什么时间周期？我承认价格走势确实呈现曲棍球棒形态，而这种抛物线上升后往往会急剧回落。但你这里讨论的可不是股票。

Because as no nonsense Forex traders know, the RSI can stay in overbought territory for a very long time. Regardless of what metric you're looking at, what timeframe are you even talking about? Now I will admit price action wise you do have kind of this hockey stick thing going on and what often happens with hockey sticks going up is they it's parabolic. A parabola goes up and then it goes right back down. But you're not dealing with stocks here.

你面对的不是外汇货币对，而是有限资源。金银作为有限资源的事实终于被主流逆向投资者意识到——我们总是如此。我们领先华尔街，领先大机构，更领先普罗大众多年。在这些迟钝的恐龙和愚蠢大众察觉前，我们已持续积累多年。

You're not dealing with a forex pair. You're dealing with finite resources. And the reality of gold and silver being finite resources has finally hit the mainstream contrarians, as we always do. We front run Wall Street, we front run the big institutions, and we absolutely front run the general public for years. We get to accumulate these things for years before the slow moving dinosaurs and the dumbass public even catches wind of it.

但即便在当前价位，即便亚洲出现抢购恐慌，我认为现在入场仍为时过早——信不信由你。记住这是长期游戏。要想在这个领域生存，想继续听这档节目，就必须遵守这个规则。做不到就请离开。下面我们重点聊聊白银市场。

But again, even at these levels and even now that there's a bit of a panic in the buying market, especially in Asia, I think it is still pretty early, believe it or not. Long term, don't forget that. This this is the game you must play if you're going to exist in this space and if you're going to listen to this podcast. If you cannot do this, please leave. But let's get into the silver side of things especially.

这才是本期重点。不知道你是否关注最近的「白银轧空」事件，我简直看不够这场大戏。必须紧盯每个动向，最难的是既要深入剖析又不能让节目过于专业晦涩。现在让我们进入正题：全球白银市场主要由两家大型贵金属银行主导。

That's what this episode is really about because, I don't know if you've been following the latest SilverSqueeze, but I cannot get enough of it. This is must see TV. I've been watching it like a hawk, and the toughest thing to do is actually kinda distill it down into a palatable episode without getting too in the weeds and getting too nerdy about it. But let's go ahead and get into that portion of the show now. So there are two major bullion banks in the world when it comes to silver.

纽约有COMEX，伦敦有LBMA。人们高度怀疑——其实这甚至称不上怀疑，我们很清楚他们在做什么。这两家银行都在以远超实际持有量的倍数出借白银（顺便说一句，这本来是不被允许的，按理说应该严格遵循1:1的比例），但这就是他们的操作方式。现在几乎所有商业银行对法币都是这么干的。但白银不同于法币，你无法凭空印出更多白银。

There's the COMEX in New York City and the LBMA in London. There is high suspicion and it's not even really suspicion, we know exactly what they're doing. Both banks are lending out their silver at multiples of what they actually have, which you're not supposed to do by the way, this should be one to one across the board, but that's not how they operate. Now this is exactly what pretty much every, commercial bank does with Fiat. But unlike Fiat, you can't print more silver.

所以这整个操作愚蠢至极，迟早会反噬他们。我们要确保当那一刻来临时，我们已经全力押注。问题在于何时会发生？因为理论上可以用新开采的白银来补充。但正如我上期节目提到的（也可能没提，那期是加密货币主题，但我们早期讨论过白银问题）——

So this whole endeavor is stupid and is going to catch up to them at some point. And we want to make sure we are fully invested when this time comes. The question is when will it happen? Because you can replace the silver with mined silver. But as I mentioned last episode, or not, is a crypto episode we talked about silver early on.

全球真正开采白银的矿业公司只有13家左右，产量根本不够。你既不能要求这些公司提供超出库存的银，也不能要求他们加大开采力度——因为如果今年透支开采，明年怎么办？他们不会答应，也不应该答应。所以当出现白银挤兑时（比如2022年白银散户逼空事件），其实是好事，这会持续缓慢抽干这些贵金属银行的库存，最终让他们无计可施——毕竟我们面对的是有限资源。

There are only about 13 real silver mining companies in the world who are who have mines that are actually producing silver and that's not enough. You can't ask these companies to give you more than they have. You also can't ask them to mine more aggressively because if they do that this year, what's next year gonna look like? They won't comply nor should they. So when these silver squeezes happen like, the Silver Apes squeeze we saw in 2022, they're good things because they continue to slowly drain these bullion banks to where there's really nothing the banks can do about it because again, we're dealing with a finite resource here.

但这能提高公众认知，非常有益。正如我之前所说，这种挤兑会慢慢耗尽银行库存，直到他们无法补充，最终彻底暴露裸泳。不过历史表明，通常不是单次挤兑就能抽干这些银行，而是连续多次挤兑的累积效应。

But it raises awareness which is really good because the more people who know about this the better. And like I said before, it also slowly drains these banks to where they can't replace enough of it and they will eventually have nothing left and get caught with their pants down. And when that happens, oh buddy. But it's never, it usually hasn't at least been the squeeze itself that completely drains these bullion banks. Every time we have a squeeze, it plays a major part, but it's a series of squeezes that will take these banks down to nothing.

LBMA首当其冲，因为在这两家机构中，他们在无实物白银支撑的借贷方面最为肆无忌惮。这种把戏可以玩一时，但当人们开始要求实物交割（这种情况已经发生），谁在裸泳就一目了然。COMEX和LBMA已经裸泳太久，这个局面根本无解。这是场缓慢的死亡行军，而当我们触底时，你必须以任何可能的方式参与这个市场。即便出现震荡期（我认为很有可能，但这只是推测）——

And the LBMA is first on the list because are out of the two, they were certainly the most egregious when it comes to lending out silver they don't really have. Which, again, you can do for a while, but when people start to stand for delivery, which they have done, that's when we really start to see who is swimming naked. And COMEX and LBMA have been swimming naked for a very, very long time and there is simply no way to repair this. It is a slow death march to bottom and again, once they reach that bottom, you want to be participating in this market any way you can. And if we do range for a while, which is something I can see happening, I'm not making a prediction because I don't want to be like those people, But we we might be raging for a while.

务必把握这个时机。我要特别指出：由于主权国家暗中囤积白银，整个进程已进入新阶段。这种现象过去并不普遍。中俄早就在这么做，因为他们足够聪明，而西方却愚不可及。多年前我就在节目里说过：如果玩一场世界霸权战略游戏，你更想选谁当队友？

Take advantage of this time because I will say this, we have entered a new stage in this whole process because of what's going behind the scenes with sovereign countries hoarding silver as well. This was not a thing worldwide. China and Russia were doing it for a long time because they were smart while the West was being dumb. I said it years ago, if anybody remembers I said it on this show. I'm like, let's be honest, if you were playing a world domination strategy game, who would you rather have on your team?

是普京和习主席？还是拜登、特鲁多、马克龙、约翰逊、莫里森和阿德恩？如果让你二选一，哪队能稳赢？一边是深知国家面临多重危机必须全力求存的领袖，另一边是平庸的NGO傀儡。答案不言自明。幸运的是，美国至少已经摆脱了这类领导人。

Vladimir Putin and Chairman Xi or Joe Biden, Justin Trudeau, Emmanuel Macron, Boris Johnson, Scott Morrison, and Jacinda Ahern. If those were your two teams, who do you think would win every single time? Two people who understand that their countries are completely fucked in a lot of ways and need to do whatever they can to survive or a bunch of midwit NGO puppets. I think the choice is very simple. But luckily, at least in The United States, we don't have one of those in office anymore.

本届政府深谙此道，竞赛已然开始，这只会让我们这样的投资者受益。但更重要的是——逆向投资者们请听好——未来白银市场上，库存的大部分将不再惠及散户买家，而主要是维持存在。主权国家将优先获取，ETF其次。细想之下，这完全合理。

This administration gets it and the race is on and that does nothing but benefit investors like us. But what this also does, and this is a key takeaway from this episode, contrarians, is, believe you me, when it comes to silver going forward, most of what is stored is not going to benefit the retail buyers anymore. It is mainly going to exist. So, sovereign countries can have access to it first and then the ETFs second. And if you think about it, it makes sense.

白银需要先流向这两个渠道，然后才轮到我们这样的平民。因为首先，供应确实日趋紧张。传言已获部分证实（尽管仍是传言）：这次为补充LBMA库存——由于我们成功抽走的数量——动用了500多架满载银条的飞机才勉强补仓，而库存水平仍远低于此前。这种操作能重复几次？没几次了。但你们看到了抽空的原因，单是亚洲地区就...

It kind of needs to go to those two places first before it goes to you know plebs like us because for starters, supply is really getting tight. Rumor has it confirmed at least, but still a rumor that this time to fill the LBMA because of the amount that we have successfully drained it, it took over 500 planes filled with silver bars just to fill that sucker up again to levels that were much lower than they were before. How many times can you do that? Not many. But you saw the reason why it was drained, I mean, just in Asia alone.

印度和中国曾对白银疯狂抢购。土耳其作为主权国家代表也大举买入。散户则支付着惊人的溢价。稍后节目解决方案环节我们会详谈。但请先认清现状：特别是在亚洲，对贵金属的抢购浪潮从未停歇。

In India and China, they were going mad for silver. Turkey, as far as sovereign nations go, just bought a bunch. And retail buyers were paying incredible premiums for these things. We're gonna talk about that in a moment when we get to the solutions portion of the show. But just understand what's going on right now and how especially in Asia, these runs on precious metals don't stop.

或许会暂缓片刻，但这些文化深知货币本质及其重要性。当人们看到邻居持有而自己短缺时，就会持续增持。现在整个国家终于意识到逆向投资者五六年前就明白的事：白银这玩意儿既稀缺又极其实用——哦对了，还比法币更靠谱。所有因素交织下，全球突然某天惊醒：妈的，白银太重要了，而世界储量根本不够，以后也不会够。等等，AI也需要大量白银？

They might pause for a little bit, but those cultures understand what money is and how important is that you have it and when they see their neighbors have it and they don't have any or they're deficient in it or they feel like they're deficient in it, they're just going to continue to buy more and now you have entire countries finally figuring out what contrarians have known for the better part of five or six years. When it comes to silver, this shit is scarce and extremely useful. Oh and also better money than fiat currency is. So you have all these things swirling together and the whole world all of a sudden woke up one day and is like, shit, silver kind of matters a lot and the world doesn't have enough of it Nor will it ever. Oh crap, an AI needs a bunch of it too?

糟了。我们得赶紧找替代品。什么？不存在？完蛋。非正式财务建议啊逆向者们——能搞到更多白银就赶紧动手，或是通过矿业股（顺便说，那里永远有最便宜的白银）获取渠道，动作要快。

Uh-oh. We better hurry up and come up with replacements for it. Oh, they don't exist? Well shit. Not official financial advice contrarians but damn if I could give it to you, you better get your hands on more silver or more access to silver via mining stocks which is where the cheapest silver lies by the way, it always has and do it soon.

因为我觉得可能会暂缓，但不知会缓多久。这些金库银行并未按意愿补货，库存始终无法恢复正常水平。情况持续恶化，这让我想起最爱的老梗——Mike Maloney首创的'白银即将变成不可得矿和负担不起矿'，虽是角膜笑话但每次都能逗笑我。

Because I do think we might arrange for a little bit but I don't know how long a little bit is and these bullion banks are not replenishing the supply they want. They're not getting back to normal levels. It just keeps getting worse here and then it's my favorite old man joke. I think Mike Maloney said it first you know to where silver really is going to become unobtainium and unaffordium. It's the corneas joke but I laugh at it every time.

但逆向者们，我们首要任务是自我保护，而现在这就是最佳方式。进入解决方案环节前，需要回顾下获取途径及其现状——如我所言，如今世道不同了。预期要与过去划清界限。你们现在听到的'货币贬值交易'概念，再次证明这些人醒悟得多晚。全世界都突然发现：法币就是垃圾，永远在贬值。

But contrarians, the number one thing we do here is protect ourselves and this is one of the best ways to do it. Now let's as we move into the solutions portion of the show, we need to review a bit the ways we can obtain it and what's going on with some of those methods because as I said it's a different world now. Expect things now to be different than they were before. You are hearing now about this thing called the debasement trade which again just shows how freaking late these people are to the party. Everybody's like, fiat currency sucks and it always loses value.

好吧，说得不错啊伙计们。你们年薪多少才能想出这种主意？但全世界都开始明白了。就像我说的，亚洲早就知道这点，现在西方也开始醒悟。第三世界和发展中国家的人们一生都清楚这个道理。

Well, yeah, great call guys. How much do you make a year to come up with things like this? But the whole world is catching on. Like I said, Asia always knew about this, but the West is catching on now too. Third world and developing world countries also have known about this their entire lives.

但当西方跟上时，确实意味着什么，因为西方也有钱。而且他们不再像过去那样风光。我早就说过，西方正在因多种原因崩溃，但他们的货币——长期以来相比之下表现优异的货币——仍然是法定货币。这个十年，正如我一直说的，将是一个彻底混乱的十年。人们第一次真正感受到并意识到这点，聪明人已经开始行动。而愚钝的人也会行动，只是会更晚些。

But when the West catches up, that does mean something because there is money in the West too. And they no longer have it as good as they once did. I've said it before, the West is collapsing for many reasons, but their currency, which was just great by comparison for so long is still fiat currency and this decade, as I always said this decade is going be a decade of absolute chaos. People for the first time are finally feeling it and realizing it and smart ones are taking action. And the dumb ones will take action too, they'll just do it later.

但这种货币贬值的把戏现在已成事实，依然荒谬得可笑。惊讶他们居然敢公开说出来，但他们确实说了，现在人尽皆知。就像我们在节目里讨论的，情况永远不会好转。法定货币唯一表现好的时候是经济衰退初期，当所有人都恐慌性持有现金时。除此之外就是垃圾。所以现在这种情况已经发生，因此人们开始涌向贵金属。

But this whole debasement trade is now a thing, it's still it's just so hilarious. Surprised that they would even say it out loud but they did and now it's out there and as we talk about here on the show it's never going to get better. The only time fiat currency does well is when is the the early stages of a recession when everybody panics in the cash. Apart from that it's shit. So you already have that going on and because of this there is a run into precious metals.

说到贵金属，目前金银比率是84，仍然严重偏向黄金。所以我认为白银存在很多机会。那么你喜欢在哪里购买白银？如果像往常一样从本地钱币店购买，那可不是明智之举。我理解'不亲手持有就不算拥有'的心态。

Now as far as precious metals go, the gold silver ratio is currently at 84 which is very tilted towards gold still. So I think there's a lot of opportunity in silver there. Now where do you like to buy your silver? If you like to buy it from local coin shops, as usual, you're not in a really great place. I understand the if you don't hold it, you don't own it mentality.

我完全明白，有些人觉得从实体店购买比网上更私密，这确实没错，但你会在这个过程中吃尽苦头。要知道这些钱币店经常缺货，你想要的东西大多数时候可能都没有，而且溢价总是很高，白银的溢价尤其严重。所以我一直认为最佳选择是在线购买，无论你是自己储存还是委托他们保管。

I totally get it and people feel like if you there's people out there who feel like if you buy from coin shops, there's more privacy than if you would do it online, which is true but you are going to suffer every single step of the way. Just know that. These coin shops are going to be out a lot. The selection of what you might want is probably not going to be there most of the time and your premiums are always going to be higher and silver premiums tend to be pretty high. So I've always thought your best move is online whether you were storing this metal yourself or whether you are having them do it for you.

长期关注我的人都知道，我的贵金属存放在新加坡的离岸仓库。这对我来说有很多好处。不知道为什么这么做的人不多，其实谁都可以这样做。我没有固定居所，经常四处奔波。所以随身携带贵金属——特别是体积更大的白银——毫无意义。

Now if anybody has followed me for any amount of time, you know that my precious metals are held offshore in Singapore. Now this works great for me for so many reasons too. I don't know why more people don't do this, anybody can do this. I am not rooted to one place, I move around lot. So carrying precious metals on my person makes absolutely no sense especially silver, because it's bigger and bulkier.

即使我有固定住所，可能还是会选择这种方式。实际上我绝对会这么做，毫无疑问。因为这样就不会被抢劫。除非你独居且从未向任何人透露过你的金银，否则总有人会知道。有句老话说得好：三个人能保守秘密的前提是其中两个已经死了。如果情况真的恶化，而人们知道你随身带着金银，我可不想成为那个倒霉鬼。我得再次提出这个观点，因为似乎很久没强调了：持有白银的人分两类——囤积者和生存主义者。生存主义者这么做主要是因为他们认为终有一天会出现后末日社会，那时我们将回归以物易物，而金银将成为主要交易媒介。

Even if I was rooted to one place, I would probably still do it this way. I would absolutely do it this way, actually without a doubt, simply because you can't rob me now. Unless you live all by yourself and you've told nobody about your gold and silver, there's a chance that somebody's gonna know and there's that whole saying you know three people can keep a secret if two of them are dead. Like if things get really bad and people know you have gold and silver on you, I wouldn't want that to be me and I have to bring this argument up again, because I guess I just haven't done in a while but people who are holding silver, there's stackers and then there's preppers. The preppers are doing it, mainly for because they think there's going to be a day where we have this post apocalyptic society to where we have to go back to bartering and gold and silver is going to be the main vehicle through which we do that.

正如我指出的，当我这么说时会让很多生存主义者不满，因为这违背了他们长期以来的信念——我一直强调这不是正确的方式。如果你仔细推敲就会发现行不通：当你用金银交换物资时，首先买家如何验证你的金银真伪？你可能掌握鉴定方法，但他们未必懂，甚至可能根本不信任你。其次，即便你使用小额银币（在后末日社会里可能价值800美元），但如果你只需要价值200美元的东西，对方如何找零？这引出了那个备受诟病却至关重要的东西——在这种社会形态下（虽然我认为永远不会发生），你我所有人都能理解且必须大量储备的唯一交易媒介就是现金。虽然人们讨厌听我这么说，但事实就是如此。

Which I have pointed out and I have said a lot of preppers when I say this because it goes against, what they've believed for a long time and I've always said that this is not the way. It's not if you really walk me through it, it doesn't work because there has to be a buyer if you're selling your gold and silver for goods and one, how is that buyer going to know that your gold and silver is real? You might know how to test for it, but they might not know how to test for it and they simply may not trust you. Two, even if you go down to silver coin denominations that might be a lot more especially if we come to a time where we're in a post apocalyptic society to where silver coin could be worth like $800 You know maybe you only need $200 worth of stuff and how is somebody going to give you change? That leads me to the one thing, that is going to be so demonized but is still, remember in a society like this, which I don't think is ever going to happen but if it does, the only medium of exchange you, me, and everybody else all understands and is the one thing you're actually going to have to have a lot of is cash and people hate when I say it but it's so true.

子弹和香烟爱好者也会暴跳如雷——当这种交易真正实施时，假设我有食物而你需要食物，但我手头只有大量子弹和香烟且并不需要它们。想过这点吗？‘我总得有你需要的物资吧？’不，老兄，我什么都不缺。

You know the bullets and cigarettes crowd gets really mad too because you know when you put this practice into reality, maybe I got food and you want food, but I also have plenty of bullets and cigarettes and I don't need them. Ever think of that? Well, I've gotta have something you need. Nope. I'm I'm good man.

我应有尽有。‘那你愿意收什么？这些金银币行吗？’兄弟，我他妈哪知道这玩意是真是假。

I got everything. Well, what will you take? Will you take these gold and silver coins? I I don't know if that shit's real, man. I don't know.

‘不，我只是个农夫，手里有你需要的粮食。’‘好吧农夫先生，那你要什么？’‘我要现金。虽然这破纸不值钱，但至少我知道它的确切价值。’

No. I'm just a farmer, and I got the food you need. Oh, well, well, what will you take, farmer VP? Well, I'll take cash. I know how much that's worth even though it's shit and it's not worth a lot.

至少我清楚现金的价值，也明白我的东西该卖多少钱。现实有时很残酷，但这就是现实。我的建议是寻找更实际的解决方案，最终选择对你最有利的方式。我认为根据个人情况将贵金属存放在海外或境内都是明智之举。不过要记住：这些店铺虽然货源更充足、溢价更低，但同样会售罄。

At least I know what it is worth and I know what my things cost in cash. Like reality can be a bitch sometimes, but it's still reality, you know? So I'm just saying maybe look for more practical ways here and just at the end of the day do what makes sense to you. And I honestly think holding your precious metals offshore or even at an onshore place depending on who you are and where you are is the better move. Just know too, these shops will have much better availability, they're going to have better premiums, but they can run out as well.

就连我那几乎从不缺货的店铺——现在有银条，但两周前就断货了。当时你仍可下单锁定价格，因为他们确认会补货，这种模式很有意思。即便没现货我也愿意购买，毕竟第一我知道会到货，第二我又不打算一周后就转手。

Even my shop which almost never runs out. They have silver now but a couple weeks ago they didn't. Like you could still buy it and lock in a price because they knew they were getting it, but they didn't actually have it which I thought was interesting. And I'm perfectly fine buying it if they don't have it because I, one, I know it's coming. Two, it's not like I'm going to sell it a week later.

我是长期持有者。但影响我和所有人的关键因素就是溢价——现在溢价已翻倍，恐怕很难回到四五个月前那种低位了。虽然仍比本地店铺便宜：看到亚洲那些排长队的人群（印度、中国、新加坡、印尼），我简直想问‘你们没通网吗？’明明有更好的购买渠道。

I'm a long term holder here. But the one thing that does affect me and everybody else, especially in this world is the premiums. The premiums have doubled and I don't know if we're ever going to go to back to a world like we were in four or five months ago where these premiums were still nice and low. They're still going to be lower than your local shop and you know I saw in Asia all these people standing in these huge lines in India, in China, in Singapore, in Indonesia and I'm like do you guys not have internet? There's a much better way.

你无需排队，还能支付更低的溢价，但即便在网上，溢价也已翻倍。我只是不确定我们是否终于进入了一个新时代，这些东西不再像以前那样充足，溢价将反映这一点。溢价是游戏的一部分，我明白，但想到这些东西未来可能会更贵，甚至再也回不到原来的价格，真是让人沮丧。谁知道呢？但另一种选择是，我们之前讨论过白银时提到的区块链选项其实并不存在。我认为没有像黄金那样的好选择，但有纸白银。我要首次对逆向投资者说，我认为现在终于到了对纸白银保持谨慎的时候了。

You won't have to stand in line and you'll pay lower premiums but even online the premiums have doubled and I just don't know if we have finally entered a new age where this stuff just isn't as abundant as it was before and the premiums are going to reflect this. Premiums are a part of the game, I get it but it's just a kick in the pants knowing there's a possibility that these things are going to be higher going forward and they may never go back to where they were. Who knows? But another way you can go here and we've talked about this you know with silver the blockchain option is not really there. I don't think there's great options like there is with gold but there is paper and I will say for the first time ever contrarians, I think it's finally time to be a bit careful when it comes to your paper silver.

我们一直讨论的PSLV，我认为是目前为止最佳选择。他们不像这些银行或某些ETF那样出借白银，我相信在所有ETF中，他们比任何人都更确定拥有实物白银。里克·鲁尔谈到过这点，他仍在斯普罗特任职，而斯普罗特拥有PSLV ETF或ETN（严格来说）。他说他们不得不从所有小型贵金属银行抽调白银，几乎耗尽这些银行的库存，才能满足PSLV的需求——这就是我们当前的处境。但如果你必须持有纸白银，这可能是最佳方式。如果你持有其他产品，务必确保它们有真实审计，确实拥有所声称的白银。

We have always talked about PSLV which which I think is by far your best option. They don't lend it out like these banks do and like some of these ETFs do and I believe out of all the ETFs out there, they more than anybody definitely have the silver. Rick Rule has talked about this. Rick Rule still has a role with Sprott and Sprott is who owns the PSLV ETF or ETN I should say if want to be technical but he said that they had to go to all of these smaller bullion banks and completely drain them to nothing just to get PSLV the silver it needs like this is the situation we are in now but I think if you must hold paper silver this is going to be your best way. If you hold something different just make sure they have real audits by real auditing firms and they actually have the silver they say.

持有纸白银有明显优势，但如果它们像LBMA那样操作，一切就毫无意义，因为它们迟早也会被曝光。确保你的白银ETF确实持有白银，而不是像SLV那样主要用作交易工具。为了安全起见，你可能需要考虑卖出并转向实物白银，无论是自己持有还是存放在他人金库中。因为即使是PSLV也存在某种对手方风险，它们的白银存放在加拿大皇家铸币厂。加拿大本身并无金银储备，说不定哪天他们会以某种方式要求归还，谁知道呢？

Now there are clear advantages to having paper silver but it's all for naught if they are doing the same things the LBMA is doing because there will come a time where they get caught as well. Make sure your silver ETF has the silver. Make sure your silver ETF is not primarily used for a trading vehicle like SLV is. You know just to be safe you may want to consider selling and move into the real thing whether it's in your hand or whether it's in somebody else's vault because even the PSLV there is some type of counterparty risk there as well because their silver is being held at the Royal Canadian Mint. Canada really themselves have no gold or silver and there may come a day where they want to repatriate it somehow, never know.

但最后我想讨论的方式是我最喜欢的白银投资方式。我现在持有实物白银。我在这点上反复过，但我一直持有矿企股票，就像我们在加密货币领域持有主流代币一样。我喜欢坚持选择大型生产商，因为正如我们现在所学到的，生产商至关重要。我的投资组合中大部分是生产商，与许多初级矿企不同，这些高市值生产商表现极为出色。

But the last way here I want to talk about is my favorite way as far as silver goes. I do have physical now. I've gone back and forth with this, but I've always had miners and just like we do with altcoins in the crypto world. I like to stick to the big boys. I like to stick to the real producers because as we if we've learned anything right now producers really matter and the majority of my portfolio is producers and unlike a lot of juniors, these higher cap producers have done extremely well.

现在如果有人了解矿业股票，资金通常会随时间流向小型矿业公司。我也有几家这样的公司，其中一家表现很好，另一家毫无起色。但我仍然看好它，打算继续持有。但请记住我刚才说的，市面上有些优质公司表现平平，尽管白银价格坚挺且我们正处于白银的'哎呀'阶段，人们会看着这些股票问为什么它们不动。其实有两个可能的原因。

Now if anybody knows anything about mining stocks over time the money generally flows downstream into the juniors. I have a couple of those as well, one of them is doing great, one of them is doing nothing. But I still like it, I'm going to keep it. But just know, remember what I just said, there are companies out there, good companies that really are going a bit sideways even though silver has not and even though we're in that uh-oh phase for silver, people are going to look at some of these stocks and say well why aren't they moving? Well there's two reasons why this could be.

第一，这支股票完全是垃圾。第二，它即将启动，只是时间问题，这时了解矿业公司就派上用场了。虽然我懂得不多，但我追随行业专家。之前说过唐·杜雷是业内翘楚。他的服务年费200美元，简直是整个领域最超值的交易。

One, the stock is complete shit. Two, it's going to move, it's just a matter of time and this is where knowing your mining companies comes into play. Now I don't know a whole lot but I follow people who do. I've told you before Don Duret is the best in the business. His service is $200 a year which is the most screaming bargain in the entire space.

这服务本该值1.5万美元/年，人们会争相购买。但你也可以在推特和油管上关注他，他会分享最佳投资选择和研究报告。他推荐的某些股票尚未大幅上涨，还有所谓的'期权性投资'——在金银等矿业领域，有些公司可能钻探结果不佳或矿石品位较低，在金银价格处于特定水平时（比如白银20多美元时）缺乏吸引力。但现在银价48美元，这些矿场其实盈利不错，只是投资界还没意识到这一点。

It should be worth like $15,000 a year, people would pay for it. But what he also does is you can just follow him on Twitter and on YouTube, he releases his best plays and he shows you his research and some of the stocks he's recommended have not moved up a whole lot yet and you also have things called optionality plays too, be unaware for these in the gold and silver space and really any mining space where the companies may not have the best drill holes or they may have fairly low grades on their ore and this has made them unappealing at certain price levels when it comes to gold and silver and when it comes to silver I'm talking like silver in the 20s. In the 20s these mines weren't making a ton of money but at '48 where we are now, they're making money. They're making pretty good money actually. Investing world just hasn't caught up to that yet.

因此那里确实存在机会。我在黄金领域就持有一个这样的机会，你能在此发现真正的价值。所以总体而言，逆向投资者们要明白：白银领域的形势正变得非常糟糕，而这对我们有利。同时只需记住两点：第一，现在正是你真正需要开始自我保护的时候；第二，信不信由你，这里依然蕴藏着大量价值。原因一是价值本身就存在，你只需知道去哪里寻找；原因二是我认为我们仍有很长的路要走。

So there are certainly opportunities there. I have one of these in the gold space and you can find some real value here. So overall just understand contrarians that it's getting really bad in the silver space and that benefits us and also just know two things. One, this is where you really need to start protecting yourself and two, believe it or not there's still a lot of value to be had. One, because it just simply exists and you have to know where to go look for it and two, I think we still have a long way to go.

这意味着尽管价格已经大幅上涨，现在采取行动看似有些疯狂，但我依然认为你此刻入场仍算非常早期。

Which means that making moves now as much as prices ran, it seems a bit crazy, but I still think you're going to be really early here.