第230集：比特币超级看涨

这里是Tim和逆向思维播客。

This is the Tim and the contrarian podcast.

这里是VP。

This is VP.

我们是一档以解决方案为核心的播客，深入探讨逆向投资和另类金融的世界。

We are solutions based podcast, diving into the world of contrarian investing and alternative finance.

您可以在'无废话外汇'YouTube频道、nononsenseforex.com网站以及各大播客平台收听我们的节目。

You can find us hosted on the No Nonsense Forex YouTube channel, nononsenseforex.com, and podcast players everywhere.

第230期节目由Bybit赞助播出。

Episode two thirty is brought to us by Bybit.

我要再说一遍，我知道你们听烦了，但我不在乎。

I'm gonna say it again and I know you guys are sick of me saying it, but I don't care.

恭喜各位交易员又度过了精彩的一周。

Congratulations traders on what had to have been another amazing week for you.

但今天我想特别提一下Bybit卡，我在拉丁美洲看到越来越多人使用它。

But what I wanted to mention today was the Bybit card which I'm seeing more and more of out here in Latin America.

最酷的是你们都知道Tether是Bybit生态系统的重要组成部分。

What's really cool now is you guys know Tether is a big part of the Bybit ecosystem.

现在每次消费不仅能赚回Tether，由于Tether推出的黄金xaut产品，每次消费还能赚回黄金。

You can earn Tether back with every purchase but now because of what Tether is doing with gold and their x a u t product, you can earn gold back on every purchase.

我正绞尽脑汁想找到每次消费都能赚回黄金或比特币的方法。

I'm over here dying to find a way to get either gold or Bitcoin back with every purchase I make.

现在在这里你就能实现这个愿望。

You can do that right here, right now.

如果你通过我的链接注册，除了Bybit已经提供的优惠外，还能获得更多额外奖励。

And if you sign up through my link, get so many more bonuses on top of everything by bit already gives you.

前往节目备注，点击购买Bybit博客链接，阅读后点击博客最底部的我的链接进行注册，加入这个生态系统。

Go to the show notes, click on the buy bit blog, read it, click my link at the very bottom of that blog and get yourself signed up, get yourself into this ecosystem.

这绝对物超所值，因为Bybit会员资格自带丰厚回报。

It is so worth it so many times over because with Bybit membership has its rewards.

这里是十分钟逆向思维播客，提前告知各位，这期节目其实早在几周前比特币还稳定在10万美元以上时就已排期。

It is the ten minute contrarian podcast and just so you all know I had this episode slated for this week for the last few weeks actually back when Bitcoin was comfortably over a 100,000.

现在比特币跌至95,000美元区间，正如里克·鲁尔等人士喜欢用算术指出的那样，我反而更看好它了。

Now that it is in the $95,000 range as guys like Rick Rule famously like to point out arithmetically I'd like it even more now.

你们都知道我对比特币的立场和长期看涨态度，但请务必完整收听本期内容，因为我认为你们的看涨程度还远远不够——现在2025年已过半，我们需要指出一些事实，我认为没有比此刻更适合全面审视这些问题的时机了。

You guys already know my stance on Bitcoin and how bullish I am on it long term, but you really need to listen to this episode start to finish because I personally don't think you are bullish enough and we need to point out some facts now that we're halfway through 2025, because I really really feel the need to put all of this into perspective and I think there is no better time than right now.

那么让我们先从坏消息说起。

So let's start with the bad.

过去几周我们见证了比特币大幅抛售，这主要是由巨鲸出货引发的。

We have seen a pretty big dump in Bitcoin these last couple weeks and this is mainly been triggered by whales dumping.

有家优秀公司叫Santiment，他们专门追踪这类市场动向，尤其是巨鲸行为。

There's a great company out there called Santiment and they have their fingers on the pulse of these movements especially from whales.

虽然不清楚这些巨鲸的具体身份或掌握的内幕。

Now, don't know who these whales are so much or or what they know.

巨鲸通常是在极低价位购入比特币的群体，因此当他们选择操作时——特别是做空方向，毕竟如果你早在2013年就囤积了大量比特币，现在这个价位就没太大加仓需求了。

Whales are normally people who bought Bitcoin at a very very low price and so when they decide to move especially to the downside because a lot of whales if you know if you already bought a bunch of Bitcoin back in 2013, you don't have as much of a need to buy now at these prices.

他们确实还会买入，但当他们像这样协同行动时，总让我怀疑：他们是否在互通消息？

They still do but typically when they move they are selling and when they move in coordination like this it always makes me wonder why you know are they talking to each other?

知道他们在做什么吗？

Know what are they doing?

我想永远无法真正知道。

I guess never really know.

所以，没有理由去猜测。

So, there's no reason to speculate.

但我们确实知道，他们协调一致的抛售行为是导致最近这波下跌的催化剂。

But we do know that their coordinated selling efforts has been the catalyst for this last move down.

那么，这些鲸鱼都是比特币极端主义者吗？

Now, are these whales, are they all Bitcoin Maxis?

嗯，其中一些可能是，但我知道不可能全都是，有些可能只是优秀的投资者，或者多年来学会了投资技巧——这在接触比特币的人中很常见，还有些人可能发现了黄金的价值。所以我敢说，最近几个月的下跌，部分原因是黄金领域知识的普及，以及人们认识到它和比特币一样都是极佳的价值储存手段。

Well, some of them might be but I know all of them cannot possibly be and some of them are just probably good investors or have learned about investing over the years which tends to happen when you get into Bitcoin and some of them have probably discovered gold and so I'll bet that some of this moved down especially over the last few months has been due to the rise of knowledge in the gold space and how great of a store of wealth it is along with Bitcoin.

所以这些鲸鱼的抛售，加上比特币领域很多人转向黄金进行多元化投资。

So the combination of some of these whales selling off and just a lot of people in the Bitcoin space diversifying in to gold.

这导致了我们现在的处境。

This has led to where we are right now.

如果我曾在节目里讨论技术分析，通常都会留到最后，但这次我们就先从这个话题开始吧，因为比特币兑美元的月线图现在看起来有点糟糕。

And if I ever do talk about technical analysis on the show, I typically save it towards the end, but let's go ahead and kind of start with it this episode because the monthly price chart for Bitcoin against the United States dollar, looks a bit rough right now.

我是说，你现在就打开你的图表，告诉我你看到了什么。

I mean, go pull yours up right now and tell me what you see.

你知道，你现在看到的是看跌信号吗？

You know, are you currently getting a bearish signal?

你是否可能即将看到看跌信号？

Might you be getting close to a bearish signal?

还是说情况是你还没收到信号，但除非下个月表现惊人，否则12月很可能会出现看跌信号。

Or is the situation to where you haven't gotten one yet, but unless next month is just amazing, you're probably going to end up getting a bearish signal in December.

我不知道你的算法是怎样的，但我敢打赌其中一种情况很可能是真的。

I don't know what your algorithm looks like, but I would be willing to bet that one of those scenarios is likely true.

如果你想进一步查看，调出MSTR（微策略公司）的图表，会发现那里的情况更糟。

And then if you want to go ahead and go further and pull up a chart of MSTR, Strategy Incorporated, known as MicroStrategy, you will see that the situation there is even worse.

奇怪的是，这只是题外话。

Now oddly enough is just an aside.

这通常会让山寨币跌得更惨，但这次没有。

This typically brings altcoins down even more, but not this time.

我不知道该如何解读这一点。

I don't know what to make of that.

这是一次非常比特币专属的行情。

This has been a very Bitcoin specific move.

但如果你想进一步探讨我们上周讨论的内容，要知道，经济衰退是否可能即将到来？

But if you want to go even further in terms of what we talked about last week, know, could a recession be on the menu?

不妨调出标普500指数，然后切换到周线图。

Maybe pull up S and P 500 and then go to the weekly.

要知道，那里可能也会出现看跌信号，而通常这对比特币也不利。

You know we might be getting bearish signals there as well and generally that has not been good for Bitcoin either.

过去几个月我们终于看到比特币与三倍做多纳斯达克ETF（代码TQQQ）出现了一些分化，但我个人在等待市场真正下跌，看看这种相关性是否依然成立。

We finally did in the last few months we've seen some divergence between Bitcoin and the triple Nasdaq ETF ticker symbol TQQQ, but I am personally waiting for a real downturn in the market to see if that correlation still holds.

就经济衰退而言，通常需要真正的催化剂，比如房地产危机、互联网泡沫破裂或新冠疫情。

Now as far as recession goes you normally have like a real catalyst for that you know like the housing crisis or the dot com crash or COVID.

我们目前似乎确实没有类似的东西。

We don't seem to really have anything like that currently.

一场迫在眉睫的信贷危机将在某个时刻拖垮我们。

There is a looming credit crisis which will take us down at some point.

所以，这不禁让人想问：如果我们真的看到下跌，会更像2022年还是更像2008年？

So, kind of begs the question if we do see a move down is it going to be more like 2022 or is it going to be more like 2008?

要让情况像2008年那样，你需要一个重大理由。

Well you would need a major reason for it to be something like 2008.

不过无论如何，这都是题外话了。

But anyway that's neither here nor there.

我们无法预测经济衰退，就像我们上周讨论的那样，你根本无法预测，何必费心。

We can't predict recessions like we like we talked about last week you simply can't so why bother.

但技术面展望并不乐观。

But the technical outlook is not very rosy.

众所周知图表并非总是准确，但它们至少能让我们清楚了解当前情况——目前比特币年内仅微幅上涨。

Now charts are not always right as we know, but they do give us a pretty good idea of what's going on at least and as of right now we are only slightly up on Bitcoin for the year.

今年初的价格是93,700，就在这个区间。

Now the price at the beginning of the year was 93,700 right in that range.

可以说比特币今年基本持平，考虑到2024年我们对比特币的所有期待，我们原本预期2025年会有更大成果，但显然未能实现。

So you can almost say we've we've more or less broken even for the year in Bitcoin and with all the excitement we had about Bitcoin in 2024, we certainly expected bigger results in 2025 and we just simply have not gotten them.

不仅如此，技术面展望也令人担忧。

And not only that, the technical outlook is not looking good.

假设本月的价格走势能够维持。

Assuming that the price action holds for this month.

现在这个月才过了一半。

Now the month is only half over.

我们都知道在加密货币领域，从现在到十五天后可能会发生很多事。

And as we know with crypto, a lot can happen between now and fifteen days from now.

但这就是我们目前的处境，而且情况本可能糟糕得多。

But that's where we are and it could certainly be a lot worse.

毕竟，这就是加密货币的特性。

I mean, is crypto after all.

但我们确实预期2025年的情况会比现在好得多。

But it we certainly expect it to be a lot better than this for the year 2025.

不过让我们来看看好的一面，逆势者总能发现很多积极因素。

But moving on to the good and there is so much good contrarians.

请继续关注。

Stay tuned for this.

我们来谈谈2025年。

Let's talk about the year 2025.

就在2025年这一年里发生了什么？

What has gone on just in this year 2025?

太多事情了。

So much.

我们可能在比特币实际价格上没取得胜利，但我们获得了具有终局意义的重大成就。

We may have not gotten a w on the actual price of Bitcoin, but we have scored monumental endgame type.

我要再说一遍，2025年在比特币和加密货币领域，我们取得了终局决战级别的胜利。

I'm gonna say this again endgame final boss type wins for the year 2025 in the Bitcoin and crypto space.

说到底，我根本不在乎比特币的价格是多少。

When it's all said and done, I don't care what the price of Bitcoin is.

2025年已成为加密货币领域有史以来最大的胜利，而且优势悬殊。

2025 has been the biggest W for the crypto space in recorded history and it is not even close.

我甚至无法强调2025年的这场胜利有多么压倒性。

I can't even emphasize how not even close this W has been for 2025.

那么让我们开始吧。

So let's begin.

别忘了，美国史上最支持加密货币的政府于2025年初就职，这与前任政府形成了180度大转弯。

Let's not forget that the most pro crypto administration in The United States got sworn in early twenty twenty five which was a complete 180 from the administration we had before.

单就这一点，从我们长期关注的角度来看，2025年对加密领域已是巨大胜利。

Now, this alone would make 2025 huge win for us here in the crypto space if you're looking long term which we do here.

但这届政府上台带来的连锁反应才是今年真正令人瞠目的。

But the knock on effects from this administration coming into power is what has really been eye popping for this year.

那么我们正式开始。

So let's get started.

首先，根据我最喜欢的网站etf.com今日（或昨日）报道，2025年美国比特币ETF资金净流入已达240亿美元。

For starters, as of today from one of my favorite websites out there etf.com, they reported either yesterday or today that ETFs in The United States, Bitcoin ETFs have had $24,000,000,000 in inflows in 2025.

所以价格见鬼去吧。

So price be damned.

本年度资金净流入增加240亿美元，而且ETF持有者整体比链上持币者坚定得多。

Inflows are up $24 bn in this calendar year and ETFs in general are much stronger hands than people who hold it on the blockchain.

你知道，这完全是代际认知差异——ETF背后不仅是散户，更是机构资金。

You know, it's merely an age generational experience thing and with these ETFs it's not just individuals holding, it's institutions.

因为这些机构并非偶然致富，他们深谙长期博弈之道，且比普通投资者拥有强大得多的实力。

And because these institutions are not rich by accident, they understand the long term game and they have much much stronger hands than your average investor.

那么VP，你可能会问这些大型银行和机构究竟是哪些。

Now VP, who are these large banks and institutions you might ask.

很高兴你提出这个问题，让我们来谈谈那些现在涉足比特币并将提供服务的银行——如果他们尚未开始的话——以及那些在2025年新加入的银行和机构。

Well I'm so glad you asked that question because let's talk about the banks who are now in on Bitcoin and are going to be offering services if they don't already but banks and institutions who entered the game in 2025 who were not in the game before.

重申一下，这些全新参与者今年入场，主要归功于美国当前支持加密货币的政府。

Again, brand new entrants this year primarily as a result of the pro crypto administration we have in The United States right now.

请记住，这些机构可能多年来一直看好比特币和加密货币，但他们也对客户负有受托责任。如果不得不持续对抗美国政府，那点收益根本不值得他们劳心费力。

Again, remember these institutions may have been bullish on Bitcoin and crypto for years but they also have a fiduciary duty to their clients and the juice just isn't worth the squeeze if they're constantly having to fight the United States government.

我理解这种状况，但2025年闸门已经打开，让我们看看有哪些新玩家入场。

You know I get it but the floodgates opened up in 2025 and let's see who came in.

再说一次，哪怕我们只争取到其中一家机构加入，都将是2025年最重大的胜利。

Again, if we could have just got one of these institutions on board it would have been the biggest win of 2025.

但事实远不止一家！而且请记住，我常说关键不在于有多少个人接纳比特币，而在于机构和银行的参与。

Oh, but it wasn't just one and remember too I always said it's not about how many individuals get on board with Bitcoin, it's the institutions and the banks.

这才是真正决定胜负的战场。

This is where the game is actually won.

我认为接下来可能还有一步，就是比特币开始进入养老基金和401k计划的时候——虽然距离那一步可能还有些时日，但说到闸门大开...

Now I do think there's probably one step after this and that's when Bitcoin starts going into pension funds and 401ks but we're probably a little ways away from that but man you want to talk about floodgates.

让我们先盘点2025年进入该领域的十大银行，从摩根大通开始。

Let's just talk the top 10 banks that came into the space this year in 2025 and let's start with JPMorgan Morgan Chase.

今年若能争取到摩根大通加入就已经是里程碑式的胜利——但它当然不是唯一的银行。

If we just got Chase this year it would be a monumental win but it's certainly not the only bank.

但如果你们听杰米·戴蒙的话，千万别听他说什么，只看他做什么。

But if you guys ever listen to Jamie Dimon never listen to what Jamie Dimon says only pay attention to what he does.

我之前告诉过你们，他诋毁比特币，诋毁以太坊，诋毁所有加密货币，不是因为他真这么想，而是在拖延时间。

I told you before he was bad mouthing Bitcoin, was bad mouthing Ethereum, he's bad mouthing all of crypto not because he actually felt that way about it but because he was buying time.

他当时在拖延，因为他最终会入场。今年摩根大通和英国渣打银行都进来了。

He was stalling because he was eventually coming in and this year JPMorgan Chase is in along with Standard Chartered in The UK.

摩根士丹利和高盛——天啊，如果你们看过《颠倒乾坤》这部电影，我能想到的最大型、最像莫蒂默·温索普式的金融机构现在都入局了。

Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs, my god, if you ever seen the movie Trading Places the biggest Mortimer Winthorpe type financial institutions out there that I can think of are both in the game now.

我觉得你们可能不了解高盛有多大，摩根士丹利有多大。

I don't think you guys understand how large Goldman Sachs is, how large Morgan Stanley is.

我们继续往下说。

Let's keep going.

美。

U.

国。

S.

银行，绝对是美国前十大的银行之一，他们也入场了。

Bank, definitely in the top 10 of banks in The United States they're in.

纽约梅隆银行，人们不了解这家银行的规模有多大。

BNY Mellon, people don't understand how large this bank is.

他们可能比摩根大通还要大。

They might actually be bigger than Chase.

这就是像我这样的人永远不可能在这里开户的原因——他们只服务大型企业和机构，但这绝对是全球最大的银行之一，他们也入场了。

This is this is where like people like me will never have an account because they only handle like large businesses and institutions but it is absolutely one of the largest banks in the entire world they are in.

花旗银行是美国前五大银行之一。

Citibank is in a top five American bank.

新加坡最大银行之一星展银行已入场，还有西班牙两大银行BBVA和桑坦德银行——告诉你，它们在拉丁美洲有着巨大的影响力。

DBS Bank, one of the largest banks in Singapore is in and then you have the two largest banks in Spain BBVA and Santander which let me tell you have gigantic presences in Latin America.

所以基本上全球绝大多数顶级银行都在2025年刚刚进入这个领域。

So pretty much all of the biggest banks in the world or the vast majority of them just now came into the space in 2025.

请花点时间好好消化这个信息。

Please allow time for this to sink in.

我现在就可以直接结束节目了。

Like I could just end the show now.

我们并不疯狂。

We're not crazy.

我们只是先行一步。

We're just early.

大家再见。

Goodbye everybody.

下周见。

See you next week.

我今年剩下的时间都可以不用再做节目了。

I could stop making episodes for the rest of the year.

就像我们逆向投资者已经赢了，这是我所能想到的最大胜利。

Like we've won contrarians and this is this is the biggest w I can possibly think of.

要是能争取到摩根大通和花旗银行入场——都不用说今年，哪怕是明年——我都会欣喜若狂。

I would have been so thrilled just to get Chase and Citibank in not even this year, next year maybe.

但我们今年不仅争取到了他们，还成功让其他几乎同等规模的银行也加入了进来。

But not only did we get them this year, got all of these other almost equally as big banks in as well.

下次有人试图贬低比特币时，请记住这一点。

Please remember this next time somebody tries to poo poo Bitcoin.

我是说，看看摩根大通、摩根士丹利、高盛、渣打银行、花旗银行、纽约梅隆银行——如果他们都错了，而内布拉斯加的泰勒是对的。

I mean look if JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Standard Chartered, Citibank, BNY Mellon, if they're all wrong but Tyler from Nebraska is right.

好吧，这次我认输。

Okay, I'll take the L here.

没问题，但我真的真的不会像我们这里这样逆向而行。

No problem, but I wouldn't I really really is as contrarian as we are here.

看到对手是谁后，我可不想站在这个赌局的反方。

I would not want to take the opposite side of this bet seeing who is on the other side.

我们谈论的可是数万亿计的管理资产规模。

I mean we're talking trillions on trillions of assets under management here.

然而，让所有这些银行加入甚至不是2025年最大的胜利。

However, getting all of these banks on board was not even the biggest win of 2025.

噢，差得远呢，逆向投资者们。

Oh, not by a long shot contrarians.

在座的有人知道我要说什么吗？

Does anybody out there know what I'm about to say?

我们来看看美国三大银行的管理资产规模。

Let's just take the assets under management of the top three banks in The United States.

摩根大通约有3.79万亿美元。

So you have JPMorgan Chase with about 3,790,000,000,000.00.

然后还有美国银行，我们之前没提到。

Then you have Bank of America which we did not mention.

我甚至不知道他们是否已经参与，也许很快会带着2.66万亿美元加入，然后是花旗集团的1.83万亿美元。

I don't even know if they're on board yet, maybe they will be soon with 2,660,000,000,000.00 and then Citigroup with 1,830,000,000,000.

所以，如果我们把这些加起来大约是4.06万亿左右，管理资产约8万亿美元。

So, if we add that up it's around up to $4.06 and a half, about $8,000,000,000,000 in assets under management.

单位是万亿（T开头）。

Trillion with a T.

有一家机构管理的资产比这三家银行加起来还多。

There is an institution out there who holds more assets under management than these three banks combined.

再问一次，现在有人能告诉我是谁吗？

Again, can anybody now tell me who it is?

给个提示。

Here's a hint.

他们今年早些时候（2025年）曾表示永远不会涉足比特币，结果不到十二个月就改口说会参与了。

They said earlier this year 2025 that they were never going to do anything with Bitcoin and in less than twelve months they have already flipped and now said that they will.

还是猜不到吗？

You still don't know?

是先锋集团，管理资产达11万亿美元。

It's Vanguard with $11,000,000,000,000 in assets under management.

他们现在已经入场，比赛结束。抱歉了，极端派。

They are now in game set match Sorry maxi's.

我知道你们不喜欢传统金融机构参与，但没有他们我们永远达不到目标。

I know you don't like trad Fi in the game, but we were never going to get to where we wanted to get to without without them.

我们需要他们加入，而现在不仅他们加入了，世界上最大的机构也都参与其中。

We needed them in and now they're not only in like the largest institutions in the world are now in.

先锋集团是整个事件中的皇冠明珠。

Vanguard was the crown jewel in all of this.

先锋集团拥有该领域众多顶级ETF。

Vanguard Guard has so many of the top ETFs in the space.

仅他们主要的标普500代码VOO就管理着1.5万亿美元的资产，一个股票代码而已。我查了前五名，本以为知道其中几个，比如我关注的VOOG、VTV这些庞然大物。

Their main S and P 500 ticker VOO alone has $1,500,000,000,000 in assets under management one stock ticker and I pulled up the top five thinking that I knew what some of them were gonna be like there's some gigantic ones that I follow like VOOG, VTV.

我是说这两个都是巨无霸，但它们甚至没进前五名。

I mean those two are behemoths, but they weren't even in the top five.

如果有人关心的话，前五名依次是：VOO（他们的标普500ETF）、VTI（全股票市场ETF）、BND（债券基金ETF，我们做过一整期节目，排名第三）、VUG和VEA。

If anybody cares the top five are in order VOO, VTI which is their total stock market ETF, BND which is their bond fund ETF which we did an entire episode on that's number three, VUG and then VEA.

所以是成长型ETF和发达市场ETF，就连第五名管理资产也达到1850-2000亿美元。前五名之后他们还有很多其他产品，不止我提到的那两个，还有更多你可能听说过的大型产品。

So the growth ETF and their developed markets ETF and even number five is around 185 to $200,000,000,000 assets under management and they have many more past the top five not just the other two that I named but a lot of them I'm not even thinking about that you have probably heard of and they are quite large.

就在你以为摩根大通和花旗银行已经是终局时，突然出现一家让这些银行相形见绌的机构，而且他们现在全都投资比特币了，如果还没投其他加密货币，未来也很可能会投，不过这是另一个话题了。

Like just when you thought getting JPMorgan Chase and Citibank was kind of the endgame, along comes an institution that makes these banks look almost small by comparison and they're all in Bitcoin now and likely other cryptos too if they're not already they likely will be down the line but that is another topic for another episode.

如果你想看2025年更利好的消息，还有各国央行也在买入。

Now if you want more bullishness for 2025 you had central banks also buying.

除了萨尔瓦多和不丹这些常客继续增持外，就在上周捷克共和国也加入了。可以说美国和英国也增加了持有量，不过他们主要是没收了犯罪分子的比特币并未出售，严格来说不算买入，但持币量确实大幅增加了。其实2025年这些国家或机构具体增持多少并不重要。

You had the usual suspects who also buy more like El Salvador and Bhutan but just this past week The Czech Republic got on board and you could say that The United States and UK added to theirs but they more or less just confiscated Bitcoin from criminals and they they're not selling it they are keeping it which isn't technically a buy but they have added more to their holdings by quite a bit and again it almost doesn't matter how much these countries or these institutions have added in 2025.

真正重要的是他们已经打开了这扇门，并且在门缝里钉入了一个楔子。

It's really just the fact that they have opened the door and they have stuck a wedge inside of that door.

说到这个楔子，我能想到的最佳例子就是2024年贝莱德的做法。

You know, as far as this wedge goes, the best example I can think of is when BlackRock did this back in 2024.

他们确实为很多事情打开了大门，在新政府上台之前。

They really opened the door for a lot of this, before the new administration came into power.

你知道，就像把门打开然后塞个楔子进去，这样门就关不上了。

You know, it's like just open the door and stick a wedge in there so the door is not going to close.

从那时起，各种可能性都打开了，而我们作为比特币投资者长期受到束缚，因为这些门就是打不开。

From there, so many different possibilities open up and we as Bitcoin investors were really hamstrung for the longest time because these doors just simply wouldn't open.

但特别是在2025年，这些门几乎全都打开了。

But in 2025 especially, they almost all opened.

真正巨大、像《权力的游戏》风格的大门从关闭、上闩、上锁变成了解锁和敞开。

Really big, gigantic, Game of Thrones style doors went from closed and barred and locked to unlocked and open.

你难道要告诉我你不看好，就因为最近价格下跌了？

And you're gonna tell me you're not bullish because price has gone down recently?

别最后变成那个表情包：人人都排队等12.5万美元的比特币，却没人排队等9.5万美元的比特币。

Don't end up like the meme where everybody lines up for $125,000 Bitcoin but then nobody lines up for $95,000 Bitcoin.

我昨天在X上提到过（顺便说下你可以在X上关注我，链接在节目说明里），我引用了比上帝还有钱的马克·尤斯科的话，他说得很有道理——就是我们常说的观点，只是表达得更好——他说：'投资是唯一一个当商品打折时人们反而跑出商店的地方'。这多蠢啊，但大多数投资者就是这样。所以我们才与众不同。

I mentioned yesterday on X, you can follow me on X by the way, links down below in the show notes if you don't already but I took a quote from Mark Yusko who has more money than God and he made a great point you know it just same point we make here it's just a better way of articulating it and he said investing is the only place where when things go on sale Everybody runs out of the store Like like how stupid is that right and it's so true to most investors are like this That's why we're different.

这就是为什么我们是逆向投资者。你干嘛要在任何方面像他们一样？

That's why we are contrarians Because why would you want to be like them in any way?

我是说你们都可以坐在这里说我们和他们不一样。但如果你行动像他们、行为像他们、投资像他们，那你就是他们。

I mean you can all sit here and say that we're not them But if you're acting like them and behaving like them and investing like them, then you are them.

结合我刚才解释的所有看涨理由，再加上我们在2025年基本已经实现盈亏平衡。

With all the bull cases I just explained coupled with the fact that we have more or less broken even so far for the year 2025.

这简直就是超级版的甜蜜背离。

This is the very definition on steroids of sweet divergence.

收下这份礼物吧，我的上帝。

Take the gift, my God.

说到这里，让我们进入本期播客的解决方案部分。

On that note, let's move into the solutions portion of this podcast episode.

我是说，节目一开始就谈到，短期或中短期价格前景可能不太乐观，但谁在乎呢？

I mean, talked about at the top of the show how the short term outlook or short to mid term outlook for price maybe doesn't look too rosy but who cares?

只管囤积就好。

Just stack.

你需要调整心态，不去担心物品的价格。

You need to condition your mind to not worry about what the price of the thing is.

你只是想要更多这种东西，懂吧。

You just want more of the thing, you know.

这就是比特币极端主义者真正做对的地方。

This is where Bitcoin Maxi's really get it right.

比如说，这就是白银囤积者真正做对的地方。

This is where Silverstackers for example really get it right.

他们并不真正担心自己为物品支付的价格。

They don't really worry about the price they paid for the thing.

他们只想要更多这种东西。

They just want a lot more of the thing.

这才是最重要的。

That's all that matters.

我根本不在乎他们为此支付了什么价格。

I don't don't care what price they paid for it.

你知道，也许是为了炫耀和显摆，那时候价格可能就变得重要了。

You know maybe for bragging rights and to flex maybe then maybe at that point price becomes important.

我不知道，但他们就是想要更多，因为他们知道我们所知道的——这些东西能保护我们免受法定货币贬值的影响，所以长期持有越多越好。

I don't know but you know they just want more of the thing because they know what we know and that is the fact that these things are what protects us from our own failing fiat currencies and so the more you have of them long term the better.

就是这样。

That's it.

你们知道我在很久没买比特币后，最近又以12万的价格买入了更多，对此我非常满意。

You guys know that I bought more Bitcoin for the first time in a very long time back when price was at a 120,000 and I'm perfectly fine with that.

实际上我兴奋极了。

I'm thrilled actually.

我只是想要比特币。

I just wanted the Bitcoin.

我想囤积更多比特币，所以我这么做了。那些现在说'你本可以等价格更低再买'的人，完全没理解我过去两分钟阐述的观点。

I wanted to secure more Bitcoin and that's what I did And for anybody out there saying, you could have had it at a cheaper price now VP, you are completely missing the point I just laid out these past two minutes.

你不是我们的一员。

You are not one of us.

我们是囤积者。

We are stackers.

我们是黄金囤积者。

We are gold stackers.

我们是白银囤积者。

We are silver stackers.

我们是比特币囤积者，我们只想要更多。

We are Bitcoin stackers and we just want more of it.

不仅因为它给予我们的保护，更作为额外红利，我们坚信这些因素为未来带来的非凡看涨势头。若你尚未察觉，现在应当明了，2025年看涨之门已豁然洞开。

Not just from the protection it gives us but as a nice little side bonus from the extraordinary bullishness that we also believe these things give us for the future and if you didn't already know it should be obvious now that the doors of bullishness have swung wide open in 2025.

作为比特币投资者，我们期待已久的几乎所有事情都在2025年实现了。

Almost everything we have been waiting for as Bitcoin investors happened in 2025.

哦，我是否提到过它的供应量是有限的？

And oh did I also mention that it's a finite supply?

我想我做过一整期节目来讨论这个问题。

I think I did a whole episode on that.

是的，这一点从未改变。

Yeah, that hasn't changed.

虽然遇到当前这种低迷时期时，时间线可能会稍有延迟——因为更多比特币进入流通——但我们终将面临它的耗尽。

The timeline might be delayed a bit when you have downturns like this because more Bitcoin comes online, but we're still going to run out of it.

那将会是个有趣的时刻。

That's going to be a fun time.

所以，第一步（如果你尚未具备这种心态）就是要培养囤币者的思维模式。

So, step one if you aren't in this headspace already is to have a stackers mindset.

不要说什么'技术面显示价格可能下跌，或许我应该等待'这样的话。

Instead of saying well the technicals look like you know price is gonna go down so maybe I should wait.

如果你还记得——取决于你收听这档播客的时长——我在比特币价格16,500美元时就曾这样做过。

If you recall, depending on how long you've been with this podcast, I did that back when Bitcoin was at 16,500.

我当时设定了10,000美元的目标价位，这本是种良好纪律。我说过若价格触及该目标，我会果断清仓。但价格从未到达，结果我彻底错过了那些价位。

I had a $10,000 price target and that's a generally a good thing, that's discipline and I said okay, if price hits this target, I am absolutely unloading and price never got there and I essentially missed out on those prices.

就是那时我们看到的那些诱人的低价位。

Those those really nice low prices we saw back then.

但如果你还记得，那时候我对比特币的看法与现在不同。

But if you remember too, back then I had a different outlook on Bitcoin than I do now.

当时我并不认为比特币是一种价值储存手段。

My outlook on Bitcoin back then was not as a store of value.

伊万说过，我当时觉得价值储存物不会在一年内暴跌80%，我认为当时我这么说没错，但现在我完全相信它就是价值储存手段。

Ivan said, I was like look stores of value don't drop 80% in one year and I think back then I was correct to say that but now I believe it absolutely is a store of value.

它占我净资产的25%。

It is 25% of my entire net worth.

它是并将继续是对抗我贬值的法定美元的保护，尽管存在短期和中期的波动。

It is and will be protection against my falling fiat United States dollar, even with its short and mid term volatility.

所以，我现在对待它的方式不同了。

So, I'm treating it differently.

我不再说，哦我要等它跌到某个特定价格再买入。

I'm no longer saying, oh I'm going to wait for it to hit this particular price and then I will buy some.

那是我对股票的做法。

That's what I do with stocks.

那是我有时对山寨币的做法。

That's what I sometimes do with altcoins.

这不是同一类东西。

This is not the same category.

你知道，我告诉人们，当涉及到黄金、白银、比特币时，如果你想要，就直接买，现在就买。

You know, I tell people when it comes to gold, silver, bitcoin, if you want it, just get it, just get it now.

囤积起来，别玩那种'我觉得我知道价格会怎么走'的游戏，即使你很擅长这个。

Stack, don't play this oh I think I know where price is going game, even if you're good at that.

这就是为什么我将资产配置设为25%黄金和25%比特币，因为这始终迫使我当现金比例超过25%时继续增持。

This is why I've set my allocation to 25 percent gold and 25% Bitcoin because at all times it forces me to buy more if my ratio of 25% cash is getting too high.

现在，如果你想采用这种方式，我们上期节目讨论过月线图上的黄金对比特币比率。

Now, will say if you want to play it this way, we talked last episode about the gold to Bitcoin ratio on the monthly chart.

顺带一提，这个指标非常实用。

Very helpful by the way.

我认为这是当前配置方向的良好指南，就像许多人参考金银比率那样。

I think it's a good guide in terms of what to be stacking right now just like a lot of people do with the gold silver ratio.

所以如果你在犹豫现在该配置哪种资产——这不是财务建议——但根据那张图表，目前黄金或许是更好的选择，等图表出现反转信号时再考虑比特币，这取决于你的判断。

So, you're wondering you know which one to stack now you know not financial advice but maybe according to that chart gold would actually be a better idea right now and then when that chart decides to turn over maybe then it's time to buy Bitcoin that that's up to you.

关键是要确保你的投资组合覆盖所有这些资产类别。

You know the important thing at the end of the day is that you're diversified across all of these asset categories.

我敢打赌你们很多人还没做到这点。

I would be willing to bet a lot of you still aren't.

你们对某一类资产配置过重了。

You know you're too heavy into one camp.

我甚至在YouTube评论区也看到这种现象。

You know I would even see it on in the comment section on YouTube.

顺便说一下，这个播客也会发布在YouTube上。

This podcast does go to YouTube by the way.

如果想留言，欢迎去YouTube评论区交流，记得顺手点个赞。

If you ever want to leave a comment feel free to go there and leave a comment and give us a thumbs up while you're there.

比如2024年我们的金银投资基本持平，但加密货币带来了超额收益。

But for example back in 2024 we more or less broke even on things like gold and silver but did extremely well because of crypto.

那时我常听到人们说，既然比特币一直在涨，我为什么还要投资那些停滞不前的金银呢？

And back then I would get comments from people say, would I invest in gold and silver when it doesn't go anywhere when I can just invest in the Bitcoin?

因为比特币只会一路飙升。

Because all that does is go up.

因为我们是对的，而你们错了。

Well, because we were right and you were wrong.

你需要分散投资。

You need to be diversified.

就像我说的，2024年因为加密货币对我们来说是辉煌的一年，尽管其他资产表现平平。而2025年又因黄金、白银和铀单枪匹马地让我们在逆向投资领域再创佳绩，虽然我们的加密货币仓位最终只是持平。

Like I said, 2024 is a great year for us because of crypto, even though a lot of our other stuff didn't move to where this year 2025 has been another amazing year for us in contrarian land simply because of gold, silver and uranium alone, whilst we ended up breaking even on a lot of our crypto positions.

你们明白这个逻辑了吗？

You know, you guys see how this works?

很好。

Good.

我个人实际在做什么？

What am I actually doing personally?

你知道我一向喜欢开诚布公。

You know I always try to be pretty upfront about this.

我现在什么都没买——因为这是我很久以来第一次现金见底。这很糟糕，因为我真的很想加仓黄金和比特币，但现实不允许。我得当个乖孩子先重建现金储备，这就是生活。

I'm not buying anything because for the first time in a while I am pretty damn low on cash and that sucks because I really want to buy more gold and Bitcoin, but unfortunately I just can't and I need to be a good boy and get those cash reserves back up, but that's just life.

我现在南美出差创业，前期投入很大，还在处理一些架构调整。关注我X账号的朋友知道，我最近买了银条——这些都需要现金支撑。

I'm in South America right now on business and this business has cost me money to start it and I'm doing some other structuring stuff and if you guys followed me on X, I've recently bought silver bars and all of these things require cash.

以上就是我们的现状。

So, that's where we are.

要知道如果这些东西上涨，现金就得贬值，但我对此完全没意见。

Know if these things go up cash has to go down, but I'm very very much okay with that.

我有个性格特点，我觉得这是个非常棒的特点。

I have this character trait about me that I think is a really great character trait.

我几乎总是把钱花在能让我赚更多钱的东西上，你知道我一直都是这样。

I almost always spend money on things that make me more money, you know I've always been this way.

不记得有没有在节目里说过，可能在别的播客里提过，我小时候——可以追溯到二年级——第一次知道股票市场时，我从不羡慕那些开豪车、住豪宅或穿名牌的人。

I don't know if I've ever said it on this show I might have said it on one of the other podcasts but when I was a kid like all the way back to second grade that when I first learned about what the stock market was, know, I was never envious of any ever of people who had like nice cars or a nice home or really nice clothes.

如果有人拥有我渴望的东西，那一定是那些拥有出色投资组合的人——持有股票和黄金的人。

If anybody had something that I wanted it was always you know the people who had a really great investment portfolio had like stocks and had gold.

我就会想，哦我也要那个。

I'm like, oh I want that.

为什么我不能拥有那个？

Why can't I have that?

这种心态一直延续到我成年后乃至中年，老兄这真是个极好的性格特质，因为当你把钱花在这类东西上时，无论盈亏你基本都不会后悔。

And this carried forward into adulthood and into middle age and man that's a really great character trait to have because when you spend cash on things you tend to not ever really regret doing that you know win or lose.

我告诉过你们，我实现财务自由已经很久了，这很大程度上源于我热衷于购买能带来回报或长期保值的东西。

I've told you guys I've been financially free for a long time now and much of this is due to my desire to buy things that pay me back and or protect my money over time.

所以哪怕只能让你们稍微接受这种思维方式，我觉得也算尽到责任了，因为这确实会随时间带来回报。

So if I can get you guys over to this way of thinking even a little bit then I feel like I've done my job because man it really does pay off over time.

但别让这种心态模糊了本期节目的核心话题。

But let's not let this mentality take away from what we're really talking about this episode.

我刚说完2025年比特币将迎来的所有惊人利好，而你现在能以2024年的价格买入它。

I just got done telling you all the amazing ly bullish things that happened to Bitcoin in 2025 and you now get the opportunity to buy it for the same price as you could have bought it in 2024.

我不知道现在还能告诉你什么，但即便未来比特币看跌的预测成真也无所谓。

I don't know what else I can really tell you at this point, but even if you see a bearish forecast for Bitcoin in the future it doesn't matter.

这不是理财建议，但以当前价格买入完全不是疯狂之举。

You know not financial advice but buying at these prices right now is the complete opposite of crazy.

你仍然处于非常早期的阶段。

You're still just very early.