第231集：当前最令人心动的超值之选

这里是《十分钟逆向思维》播客。

This is the Ten Minute Contrarian podcast.

我是VP。

This is VP.

我们是一档以解决方案为核心的播客，深入探讨逆向投资与另类金融的世界。

We are solutions based podcast, diving into the world of contrarian investing and alternative finance.

您可以在No Nonsense Forex的YouTube频道、nononsenseforex.com网站以及各大播客平台收听我们的节目。

You can find us hosted on the No Nonsense Forex YouTube channel, nononsenseforex.com, and podcast players everywhere.

今天我们迎来新赞助商——第231期节目由我的新Substack专栏《逆向投资者博客》冠名播出。

And we have a new sponsor today, Episode two thirty one is brought to us by my new Substack, it's called the Contrarian Investor Blog.

多么富有创意的名字啊，节目简介中会附上链接。

So creative, there will be a link down below in the show notes.

我建议您点击链接订阅专栏。

I suggest you click on it and get your self subscribed.

这里将是我今后持续更新的博客阵地。

This is where I will be blogging from now on.

我计划每周至少发布一篇，通过Substack，当博文发布时你会收到邮件通知，这与我之前的博客不同，而且我会在那里发布一些可能不会在本节目中透露的额外独家见解，或者可能要晚得多才会在这里提及。

I plan on putting out one a week minimum and with Substack you will get notified via email when that blog post comes out unlike my old blog and I will be dropping additional alpha there that I may not end up dropping here on the show or it might be much much later.

所以你会想要在发布时第一时间获取，请点击那个链接。

So you're going to want to get it when it comes out, so click that link.

如果你还没有订阅，现在就订阅吧。

If you're not subscribed already, subscribe.

当前金融世界正在发生太多事情。

There's so much going on in the financial world right now.

我不可能在这里全部讨论。

I can't possibly talk about all of it here.

我提供的链接会带你看到我的第一篇博文，也就是我的介绍性文章。

The link I give you will take you to my very first blog post, my introductory post.

如果你已经认识我，可以不用阅读，但那是第一篇文章。

If you already know me, you don't have to read it, but that is post number one.

无论如何，我希望能在那里见到大家。

And either way, I hope to see you all there.

别错过。

Don't miss out.

这里是Timid Conchurion播客，比特币价格在短短一个月内从峰值下跌了三分之一，人们至今仍困惑不解为何如此——这确实情有可原。

It is the Timid Conchurion podcast and the price of Bitcoin had dropped from its peak by one third in as little as one month and people are still scratching their heads as to why and rightfully so.

要知道我们并没有遭遇任何重大崩盘事件。

You know we didn't have a big collapse of anything.

目前比特币市场的流动性比以往任何时候都要充沛。

There's more liquidity in Bitcoin now than there has ever been.

那这种情况怎么可能发生呢？

So how is something like this even possible?

整个下跌过程仿佛是在众目睽睽之下发生的。

This whole decline seemed to happen on air.

现在有报告开始披露内情，当然你可以整天争论这个观点或阴谋论的可信度。

Well reports are coming out now and you can debate the validity of this idea or conspiracy all day.

到2025年，你就不该再用五年前的老眼光看待'阴谋'这个词了。

2025 you should not be looking at the word conspiracy the same way you did even five years ago.

要知道有些阴谋论是错误的，但正如查理·芒格所说：给我看动机，我就能告诉你结果。

You know some conspiracies are wrong, but as Charlie Munger said show me the incentive, I will show you the outcome.

看起来大银行们是逆向操作者——容我第一个指出，如果你是大银行，这么做有着非常非常充分的理由。

And it looks like the big banks were contrarians allow me to be the first one to say, it was done for very, very good reason if you are the big banks.

请允许我解释。

Allow me to explain.

这次攻击是针对Strategy Inc.公司发起的。

So the attack was done on Strategy Inc.

该公司前身为MicroStrategy，股票代码MSTR。

Formerly known as MicroStrategy ticker symbol MSTR.

你只需要记住Strategy Inc.就行。

Just really think of Strategy Inc.

就当它是家持有海量比特币的公司。

As a company that just holds a ton of Bitcoin.

他们现在打算怎么处理这些比特币呢？

Now what do they plan on doing with that?

我们稍后会讨论这个问题，但实际上它始终更像是对比特币本身的杠杆操作。由于目前在美国，据我所知还没有2倍杠杆的比特币ETF，所以这是市场上唯一的杠杆玩法。

We'll talk about that in a moment but it really is and has always been more of a leveraged play on Bitcoin itself and since there are no 2X leveraged Bitcoin ETFs at least in The States that I know of this is the only leveraged play in the game.

但就目前而言，如果他们仅此而已，那么至少在2025年7月之前，他们对美国大型银行和金融机构并不构成重大威胁，或者说至少不是直接威胁。

But as it stands if that's all they ever did they were really no major threat or at least not a direct threat to the large banking and financial institutions in The United States until July 2025 that is.

7月份，摩根大通提高了客户购买MSTR的保证金要求，并从此一直在散布恐慌情绪。

In July, JPMorgan raised the margin requirements for its customers to buy MSTR and has been FUD ing it ever since.

他们为什么要这么做呢？

Now why would they do such a thing?

他们终于开始支持比特币了。

They're finally on board with Bitcoin.

这看起来并不太合理。

Now this doesn't make a whole lot of sense.

在当前的游戏阶段，这几乎显得有悖常理。

It almost seems counterintuitive at this stage of the game.

请允许我解释原因，因为在7月份，MicroStrategy（现在称为Strategy Inc.）...

Well allow me to explain why because also in July MicroStrategy calling MicroStrategy, Strategy Inc.

推出了四只优先股基金，其中特别值得一提的是四只中唯一的一只——现在我想应该是有五只了——我们今天要讨论的这只基金代码是STRC。

Came out with four preferred stock funds and one of them in particular, the only one of the four, I think there's five now, which we'll talk about today is ticker symbol STRC.

目前这只基金提供10.5%的年化收益率，他们保留随时提高收益率的权利，但按规定不能比整体SOFR利率下降幅度多降低超过25个基点。

Now what this fund currently does is give out a 10.5% annual yield which they reserve the right to raise at any time but by rule cannot lower any more than 25 basis points beyond any decline in the overall SOFR rate.

所以当你听到SOFR利率时，实际上可以把它看作——因为它们高度相关——美元的实际利率。

So when you hear SOFR rate just really think because it's so correlated, think of the actual interest rate on the USD.

那么这为什么重要呢？

And now why is this significant?

哦伙计，这简直重要得不得了。

Oh buddy, is this tremendously significant.

真的，我甚至不是在夸张，这完全有可能长期彻底改变金融格局。

Really, if I'm not even being hyperbolic here, poised to change the financial game completely long term.

所以请理解在全球范围内，能提供稳定高收益的金融工具是多么稀缺。

So please understand how worldwide, how coveted instruments are that provide good yield and don't move a lot are.

如果你能给我接近10%的收益且风险极低的产品，市面上几乎没有这样的产品存在。

If you can give me something close to 10% with very little risk, there's just not products out there that really do that.

所以你现在可能在脑海中想到一些例子，让我进一步解释一下。

So you might be thinking of some in your head right now, let me explain a bit further.

就拿收益型ETF来说，有些产品的价格几乎完全不动。

So when it comes to yield bearing ETFs for example, there are some that just don't move at all.

它们可能会小幅上涨或下跌，或者两者都有，但始终围绕一个价格点波动。

They might move a little bit up or a little bit down or a little bit in both ways, but they stay very close to one price.

比如像SGOV或JAAA这样的产品，后者风险稍高，但仍能很好地维持在极窄的波动区间内。

So think about instruments like SGOV or JAAA, which has a little more risk, but still does a good job of staying in a very very narrow range.

目前SGOV能提供约4%的收益率，而JAAA的收益率略高于5%。

SGOV currently gives you about a 4% yield and JAAA gives you a bit over five right now.

除此之外，还有些基金虽然波动区间稍大，但仍能很好地保持稳定。

Now beyond this there are funds that move in a bit wider of a range but still manage to do a really good job staying there.

我说的区间稍大其实也没大多少，大概就1到2美元的范围。

When I say wider it's not even that much wider, it's like 1 or $2.

这里我想到一个ETF，说来有趣，是摩根大通旗下的JPIE，目前能提供约5.75%的收益率。

One of the ETFs I can think of here is oddly enough JP Morgan's ticker symbol JPIE and that one gives you right around 5.75% yield.

要知道，对于几乎不怎么波动的产品来说，这回报率简直太棒了。

You know excellent, excellent return for something that barely moves.

但一旦收益率突破10%区间——如果各位还记得我们节目专门做过的'72法则'特辑——当收益率每攀升一个百分点，它们对最终复利回报的影响就会变得极其显著。

But once you start getting up into the 10% range, and if you guys remember the rule of 72 that we had a whole dedicated episode to on this show, once you start climbing percentage points, they start to really make a huge difference in your overall compounded return.

所以当收益率达到10%时，要想获得这种回报，某些牺牲就绝对不可避免。

So when you get to 10, certain sacrifices absolutely have to be made here for anything to squeeze out that type of return.

正如我所说，这类产品确实存在。

So like I said these things do exist.

就像我之前提到的——如果你们还记得那期封闭式基金专题，那可能是我们做过最重要的节目之一。

I went over to you know if you remember the closed end fund episode, one of the most important episodes I think we've ever done here.

市面上有些封闭式基金能提供超过10%的收益。

There are closed end funds out there that that can give you over 10%.

我刚在CEF Connect上搜索，目前就有120多只，但任何了解封闭式基金历史表现的人都知道，其中大多数基金的价格会随时间下跌。

I just ran a search on CEF Connect, there are currently over 120 of them, but as anybody who understands CEFs and has tracked them in the past knows, the price of most of them do go down over time.

投资这些基金时，你必须对买入时机——尤其是卖出时机——保持高度敏锐。虽然可以做到，但要记住普通投资者和大多数机构都达不到我们在买卖时机的把握水平。

You have to be really sharp with your entries and especially your exits when it comes to these, which can be done, but remember your average investor for sure and most of your average firms out there aren't able to do what we do when it comes to entries and exits.

大多数参与其中的人只是硬扛下跌，这在我看来很疯狂，因为你其实不必这么做——但我们讨论的是一般投资者的情况。

Most people who are in this thing just ride out the drops, which is crazy to me considering you don't actually have to do that, but we're not, again, we're looking at your average investor here.

你知道为什么封闭式基金没有应有的那么受欢迎吗？就是因为普通投资者不愿承受这些下跌。

You know the reason why CEFs aren't as popular as they could be is because of these drops that your average investor doesn't want to absorb.

那么还能从哪里获得收益呢？

So where else can you get yield?

贝莱德有个很受欢迎的基金，代码HYT，HY代表高收益。

Well, BlackRock has a very popular fund, ticker symbol HYT, but HY stands for high yield.

所以你投资的是评级BB或更低的债券，这本身没问题。

So you're dealing with bonds here that have a BB rating or lower, which again is fine.

我认为这些债券的风险普遍被高估了，但要想获得这样的收益，你必须承担更高风险。因为一旦你追求10%左右的收益，就不可能找到波动区间小又能持续提供这种收益的产品——至少在STRC出现前是这样。

I think the risks on a lot of these bonds are generally overrated, but still you have to really go up the risk curve to get something like this because once you start dancing in that 10% range, it's just not possible to have something that moves in a small range that just always gives you this type of yield, or at least there wasn't, until STRC.

STRC的目标是维持在95至100美元区间，同时提供接近10%或更高的收益率。

STRC's goal is to stay within a range of $95 to $100 USD, while still giving you close to a 10 percent yield or more.

我之前说过，当美国整体利率下降时它也会下跌，但关键是——其他所有投资品都会同步下跌。

Now, I said before, it will drop when the overall interest rates in The United States drop, percent but here's the thing, so will everything else.

因此相对而言，它总能提供比其他所有选择更高的收益，这一点至关重要——尤其是因为这些银行和机构（比如摩根大通、贝莱德、先锋集团这样的巨头）根本无法应对这种产品的潜在威胁。

So relatively speaking, it's always going to be able to give you more than literally everything else is and that is a very, very big deal especially because there's just no way for these banks and institutions like okay, we're talking JP Morgan, we're talking BlackRock, we're talking Vanguard like behemoths who are instantly threatened by the possibility of what something like this can become.

别忘了迈克尔·塞勒同时推出的另外三只优先股基金（STRC旗下），它们提供的收益率与STRC现有产品旗鼓相当。

And remember at the same time Michael Saylor released three other preferred stock funds with STRC that give you a very comparable yields to what STRC already gives you.

这些产品波动性更大，所以今天我们不会重点讨论。但如果这类产品能站稳脚跟，且STRC能保持目标区间并兑现承诺的收益率，固定收益领域的其他所有产品都将黯然失色。

Now these things move a lot more, so we're not going to really focus on them today but if something like this were to stick and STRC can stay in that range and give investors the yield they promise to give, literally everything else out there in the fixed income world becomes a lot less appealing.

所以大银行们最好现在就采取行动，想办法消灭竞争对手。

So if you are the big banks, you better get ahead of this now and you better find some way to eliminate your competition.

这就是为什么自7月这些产品推出以来，他们一直处于攻势状态。

And so this is why they have gone on the offensive ever since July when these products were released.

先是摩根大通提高了保证金要求，最近又通过针对Strategy Inc的网络负面舆论加速了攻势。

It began with the margin requirements going up on JP Morgan side and it really accelerated lately with a lot of the online FUD that's been happening against Strategy Inc.

如果你能解释为什么比特币价格在一个月内暴跌三分之一——我洗耳恭听。

Now if you can tell me a better reason why the price of Bitcoin has dropped by a third in as little as a month.

但我怀疑你找不到更合理的解释。

I am willing to listen but I doubt you could.

你或许能想出一些理由，但绝找不到任何能对一种本不该如此暴跌的资产价格造成这般冲击的解释。

You could come up with some reasons but not any type of reason that could hit with this type of magnitude on the price of something that should dropping like this at all anymore.

这需要全球金融巨鳄的协同攻击才能实现，而在我看来这正是当前发生的事。

It would take a coordinated attack by the world's behemoth financial institutions to make something like this happen and to me that is exactly what's going on right now.

要知道，如果从大银行的立场来看，他们这样做确实有充分的理由。

And you know if I'm looking at it from their perspective, the big banks, it's for very good reason.

这是个实实在在的威胁。

This is a legitimate threat.

问题是之前就有人试图做空迈克尔·塞勒，但都失败了。

Now the problem is people have tried to liquidate Michael Saylor before and they just can't.

只因他持有的比特币实在太多了。

Just he holds too much Bitcoin.

他在这件事上领先太多，而且深谙此道——我几周前也在推特上说过：你们要明白长期来看，比特币和法币孰优孰劣？

He got way too far ahead of this and he knows what he's doing And I tweeted this out a couple weeks ago too, I mean you have to understand, you know, what's better long term, Bitcoin or Fiat currency?

虽然现在比特币下跌可能让你有点沮丧，但逆向投资者们，别因此迷失方向。

You know you might feel a little poopy about Bitcoin right now because of the drop, but don't lose the plot here contrarians.

是比特币。

It's Bitcoin.

说到美国所有基金一直以来不得不或选择使用的计价单位，那是什么？

Now when it comes to the denominator of what all of the funds in The United States have had to or have chosen to use this entire time, what is it?

是美元。

It's the United States dollar.

这是一种正在衰落的法定货币。

It is a failing fiat currency.

而迈克尔·塞勒产品的计价单位是比特币。

The denominator with Michael Saylor's products is Bitcoin.

远远优越得多。

Far, far superior.

大银行永远无法追赶，因为塞勒已经在金融界锁定了比特币有限供应量的大部分。

And the big banks will never be able to catch up because of the limited supply of Bitcoin that Saylor has already locked down the majority of in the financial world.

他们完蛋了。

Like they're fucked.

你知道他们在这里唯一的对策就是彻底摧毁比特币财政公司的整个概念。

You know their only recourse here is just to completely annihilate the entire idea of Bitcoin treasury companies.

因为这个领域太新了，而且很多机构试图进入这个游戏都失败了，现在正是可以指指点点嘲笑说'看吧，这些想法太蠢了'的完美时机。

And because it's such a new space, and so many of them have tried to enter the game and failed, this is the perfect time to point and laugh and say, see, these things were a stupid idea.

看看比特币波动多大啊。

Look how volatile Bitcoin is.

你们可不想掺和这些。

You don't wanna be in these.

你们应该跟我们合作。

You wanna be with us.

你们需要稳定性，尤其是在固定收益领域。

You want stability, especially in the fixed income world.

是啊，你们想要稳定性，还有我们提供的那些低于平均水平的收益率。

Yeah, you want stability and all the subpar yields that we give you.

没错，我知道这些收益率勉强跑赢通胀，但至少很稳定对吧？

Yeah, I know those yields barely outpace inflation but at least they're consistent, right?

你们这些平民，能得到什么全看我们施舍。

You peons, you get what we give you.

你们无权要求更多。

You are not entitled to anything more than that.

反对者们，我看你们还是不明白这种事物带来的威胁有多大。

Contrarians, I don't think you still understand what a threat something like this is.

你们的产品波动区间小，却能提供更高收益，而且计价基准货币比所有人的都优越。

You have a product that moves in a small range that can give superior yield with a denominator that is superior to everybody else's denominator.

这对大银行构成真正严重的威胁，他们心知肚明。

This is a real serious threat to the big banks, and they are aware of it.

你们在整个拜登执政期间都看到了，他们为了扼杀美国境内任何威胁能有多不择手段。

And you saw during the entire Biden administration just how far they are willing to go to shut down anything that is a threat to them in The US.

各州。

States.

要我说他们简直就是伊丽莎白·沃伦的翻版。

I mean they pretty much are Elizabeth Warren.

他们是加里·詹斯勒。

They were Gary Gensler.

这两个人不过是大银行的传声筒罢了。

Those two people were nothing more than mouthpieces for the big banks.

这将是一场战斗，而且会是血雨腥风的战斗，但你们根本无法阻挡先进技术的脚步。

This will be a fight and these fights will be bloody but you simply cannot stop superior technology.

在人类有记载的历史上，你们从未成功过。

You've never been able to do this in recorded history.

你们可以拖延它，但它终将接管一切——就像比特币彻底颠覆了整个金融体系，带给我们人类历史上前所未有的东西一样，凭什么固定收益领域就不能改变游戏规则？

You can delay it, but it will take over at some point and just like Bitcoin has completely upended the entire financial system and given us something we have never seen before in human history, why would they not change the game when it comes to fixed income?

这显而易见，只是时间问题。目前甚至没有人能接近实现这种变革，真正成为下一个贝莱德——难道你们以为塞勒止步于这些基金ETF就完了？

That's obvious, it's just a matter of time before it does and nobody is even close to being in the position to do something like this and really become the next black rock, like you think Sailor stopping here just with these fund ETFs?

这太荒谬了，但没有人比迈克尔·塞勒更有条件做到这一点，这就是他被重点针对的原因。

That's absurd, but nobody is better positioned than Michael Sailor is to do something like this and that's why he is targeted so heavily.

但归根结底，他们对此无计可施。

But again, at the end of the day there's nothing they can do about it.

他们可以尝试清算Sailor，但历史表明，无论你如何用胶水和手工纸拼凑出什么论点，就是做不到。

They can try liquidating Sailor, but history has shown no matter what type of argument you try to piece together with glue and construction paper, like it just, you can't do it.

即使在比特币曾跌至16,500美元时，我认为他也远未到被清算的地步。

Even in the past when Bitcoin dropped all the way down to 16,500, I don't think he was that close to being liquidated.

虽然谣言满天飞，但他似乎毫不动摇，因为他清楚自己拥有什么。

There's a bunch of rumors, but he didn't seem phased, you know, because he knows what he has.

这对银行来说确实是个非常严峻的问题。

And this is a real, real problem for banks going forward.

那么我们现在该怎么办？

Now what do we do about this?

好吧，我们还没到讨论解决方案的部分。

Well, we are not to the solutions part of the episode yet.

我想谈谈另一家比特币储备公司，它在不同领域运作，但也完全有能力做出很多——我不总说破坏性——但对服务对象非常积极的事情。

I want to talk about one other Bitcoin treasury company out there because it operates in a different space but is also very much poised to do a lot of you know I don't always say damage but you know some very positive things for the people it serves.

他们账上也有大量比特币，部分由一位自金融领域起步就持续成功的人士管理，这家公司就是MetaPlanet。

They also have a lot of Bitcoin on their books and they are partly managed by somebody who has been nothing but successful since day one in the financial space and this company I'm referring to is MetaPlanet.

在美国，这家公司的股票代码是MTPLF，我提到的这位担任MetaPlanet独立董事的人，是马克·哈斯科，至少在过去几个月里我多次表达过对他的赞赏。

In The United States this is ticker MTPLF and the person I am referring to, he is an independent director at MetaPlanet, is Mark Husko, who I have given a lot of love to over the last couple months at least.

他是这个领域中稳定人心的声音，凡是他经手的事情都取得了巨大成功，他的做法和我们如出一辙。

He's a stabilizing voice in the space and this guy just everything this guy touches has turned to gold and he does what we do.

他采取的是非常长期的策略。

He takes a very long term approach.

他极富耐心，明白当事情注定要发生时，有时只是需要时间开花结果。

He's extremely patient and he understands when things are inevitable, sometimes they just take time to blossom.

他过去曾与迈克·伊波利托在Blockworks Network上主持一档播客，我每周都会收听。

He used to have a podcast with Mike Ippolito on the Blockworks Network that I used to listen to every week.

要知道，这家伙确实很有本事，而且MetaPlanet背后的整体构想非常了不起。

You know, the guys just got it and the whole idea behind MetaPlanet is tremendous.

MetaPlanet总部设在日本。

So MetaPlanet is based in Japan.

外汇交易者们应该都知道，如果你想投资日元固定收益产品，其实选择非常有限。

Now Forex traders, you should all know this but when you talk about fixed income if you want to invest in the Japanese yen there's just not much there for you.

利率简直糟糕透顶，而且这种情况已经持续了非常非常长的时间。

Interest rates are absolute dog shit and they have been for a very very long time.

而且日本是一个非常封闭的金融生态系统。

And Japan is a very closed financial ecosystem.

你知道，基本上没什么选择空间，最多只能拿到1%的收益。

Know there's not many places to go you know so you're getting 1% at best.

日本确实有更高收益的产品，但很多背后都是日本国债支撑——如果你了解这些，就知道那绝对不是你该碰的东西。

Now Japan does have higher yielding products but a lot of those have JGBs behind them and if you know anything about those that is absolutely not where you want to be.

当谈到任何固定收益产品时，整个日本社会都被坑惨了。我不知道你对日本人口结构了解多少，但大多数日本人都是老年人。在美国，固定收入人群还能找到收益率从2%到5%的安全产品，但在日本根本不可能。

This entire society has just been screwed when it comes to any type of fixed income product and I don't know how much you know about Japan and their demographics but most people in Japan are old and while most people on fixed income in The United States have the opportunity to have products which can yield anywhere from 2% all the way up to 5% pretty safely, Japan can't.

他们最多只能拿到1%甚至更低的收益。

The best they can do is 1% or lower.

这太可怕了。

That's horrible.

不过现在情况不同了。

Well until now.

MetaPlanet有一款产品能提供4.9%的固定收益。

So MetaPlanet has a product which gives 4.9% fixed income.

不错啊，虽然比不上MicroStrategy给你的10%。

Nice thing, well that's not the 10% MicroStrategy gives you.

各位，相比市面上的其他选择，这已经是美国普通投资者通过MicroStrategy能获得收益的几倍了。

Guys, relative to what's out there, this is a multiple on what MicroStrategy can give your average investor in The United States.

通过MicroStrategy你能获得约2倍收益——这已经很惊人了，但这款产品能带来约5倍收益，而且价格波动很小。

With MicroStrategy MicroStrategy you're looking at about a 2X which is extraordinary, don't get me wrong, but you're looking at more of a 5X here with a product that is not poised to move very much in price.

MetaPlan也讨论过提供7%到12%的高收益产品，但我想这肯定不会是固定收益。考虑到日本人口老龄化，老一辈可能不感兴趣，但年轻一代肯定会关注。

MetaPlan has also talked about higher yielding products anywhere from 7% to 12% but I would imagine that's certainly not going to be fixed in any way and again when most of your country is old they might not be as interested in that but the younger generations certainly might.

现在他们至少有机会选择了。

And now at least they have the opportunity to do so.

我们这里讨论的可是全球第四大经济体。

We're talking about the fourth largest economy in the world here.

我们这里讨论的是全球最大的金融市场。

We're talking about the largest financial market in the world here.

我指的是固定收益。

By that I mean fixed income.

再说一遍，在竞争方面要记住，我们谈论的是比特币的有限供应。

And again, when it comes to competition, remember this, we're talking about a finite supply of Bitcoin.

如果你已经持有大量比特币，未来任何竞争对手都很难追赶上来。而我们十分钟逆向思维播客非常看好行业龙头公司，MicroStrategy和MetaPlanet可能就是这样的龙头，甚至雷达上都看不到竞争对手，未来可能也不会有。

If you already have a lot of it, it's going to be really tough for any competitors in the future to come in and catch up to And we here at the ten minute contrarian podcast really like banking on best of breed companies and Strategy Inc and MetaPlanet might be so best of breed there's not even a competitor on the radar and may not ever be.

考虑到固定收益和高收益产品的未来潜力，加上大银行永远无法追赶、竞争对手落后光年的现状，你会以为在这种股票环境下这些公司会因为潜力而估值很高，但事实并非如此。

So with the potential future of fixed income and high yielding products which the big banks will never be able to catch up to with any competition being light years behind, would think that in this stock environment that these companies would be quite expensive given their potential, but no they are not.

很明显，它们在大银行的协同攻击下已经大幅下跌。

They have obviously moved down a lot with this coordinated attack from the big banks.

我提到的两家公司都是如此。

Both companies I mentioned have.

要知道，现在所有数字资产国库券的交易价格都非常低迷。

You know all digital asset treasuries right now are going at very depressed prices.

还有件有趣的事，如果你查看MSTR或MetaPlanet的走势图，会发现一个小现象——这正是我们十分钟逆向思维播客团队每个人都心驰神往的。

What's interesting too, if you want to pull up a chart of MSTR or of MetaPlanet, you will see a little phenomenon that is very near and dear to the hearts and minds of everybody here at the ten minute contrarian podcast.

你看到了什么？

What do you see?

暂停一下，去看看图表，告诉我你看到了什么，你可以看月线或周线，这没什么区别。

Pause, go look at the charts, tell me what you see on and you can go the monthly or the weekly makes no difference.

在两种图表上你都能看得很清楚。

You can see it pretty well on both.

你现在会看到一个非常清晰且明显的繁荣-萧条回声场景正在形成。

You will see a very clear and very apparent boom bust echo scenario lining up right now.

欢迎来到第231期节目的解决方案部分。

Welcome to the solutions portion of episode two thirty one.

目前我们仍处于两者的萧条阶段。

Now we are currently still in the bust phases of both.

如果你还记得我们上周节目中谈到的，BTC在月线图上的价格现在很可能正在给你一个熊市信号，或者非常接近的信号。

If you remember what we spoke about in last week's episode, the price of BTC on the monthly chart is likely giving you a bear signal right now or something very close to it.

所以我不知道未来几个月这一切会是什么样子。

So I don't know what all this is going to look like in the months ahead.

关于MSTR的FUD（恐惧、不确定性和怀疑）部分在于它可能被纳斯达克摘牌，这实际上不可能发生。但如果你熟悉MSCI，你可能在很多ETF中都见过这种情况。

Now part of the FUD with MSTR is that it's going to get delisted from the NASDAQ which cannot happen but if you're familiar with MSCI, you probably see this in a lot of ETFs.

MSCI是美国决定哪些公司能在哪些交易所上市的公司。至于未来在其他地方上市的可能性，他们计划取消MSTR在其他任何地方上市的资格，这个决定是最近才做出的。你认为他们为何会做出这样的决定？

MSCI is the company in The United States that decides what goes where and as far as being listed anywhere else in the future, they plan on disqualifying MSTR from being listed anywhere else and they just made decision recently and why do you think they would have made a decision like that?

你觉得他们是否可能受到了大银行、贝莱德和先锋集团那些朋友的些许影响？

Do you think they might have been influenced a little bit by their buddies at the large banks and BlackRock and Vanguard?

哦，我得说这种可能性相当大。

Oh, I would say there's a pretty good chance of that.

这一切都将在明年一月份真正显现出来，所以我很有兴趣先看看那时会发生什么。

So this is all going to really kind of hit home in January, so I'm interested to see what happens there first.

要知道，我们可能会以更优惠的价格入手，但你也明白加密货币此刻的走势。

You know we may get even better prices on this but you know how crypto goes at this point.

如果这个回响期持续时间不长，也千万别太惊讶。

Don't be super surprised if the echo period does not last very long.

所以如果你对其中任何一点感兴趣，我建议你不要袖手旁观。

So if you are interested in any of this, I don't recommend sitting on your hands.

要知道一旦回音阶段真正开始，下行风险虽然存在但会变得相当有限，因为在回音阶段——如果这里确实发生这种情况——通常会形成筑底形态。

You know once the echo phase really takes place, downside potential is still there but it becomes fairly limited because in the echo phase, if that's what does happen here, will generally form a basing pattern.

我当然无法告诉你何时该出手，但如果你理解这些事物可能成为比黑石更高级版本的潜力，就别被当下散布的恐慌信息所迷惑——即便你完全清楚这些信息的来源——然后坐视机会流逝。

So I certainly can't tell you when to pull the trigger on these but if you understand the potential these things have to possibly come a superior version of black rock, then you know dismiss them, fall for the FUD that's being thrown out there right now, even though you fully know where it's coming from and sit on your hands and just let price pass you by.

但就我个人而言（非财务建议），我绝对会把这两支标的列入重点关注名单，同时密切关注该领域即将出现的其他机会。

But what I'm doing, not financial advice, I am absolutely putting these two in particular on my radar, being very conscious of what else is coming up into the space.

希望未来能把类似STRC这样的标的纳入我的股息组合，能获得全天候近乎固定的10%或接近这个水平的收益该是多么美妙。

Hopefully, I will be able to put something like STRC in my dividend portfolio, what a joy that would be to get a virtually fixed 10% or something close to it all day.

这对退休版VP来说简直是梦想成真，但我真正想展示的是这类公司的潜力——尤其是在价格低迷、市场情绪低落、人们对此类想法嗤之以鼻的当下。我对这些人的回应始终如一，就像我们在节目中讨论所有话题时一样。

Be a dream come true for retirement version VP, but I really wanted to illustrate the potential of companies like this, especially now when prices are depressed and sentiment is low and people are LOL ing at the entire idea of something like this and my response to those people is the same as it's always been with everything we talk about here on the show.

那么，你认为世界的未来会更模拟化还是更数字化？

You know, do you think the future of the world is more analog or more digital?

顺便说下这个问题是从马克·尤斯卡那里借来的，但它确实是个绝妙的问题。

I stole that from Mark Yuska by the way, but it's a perfect question.

如果你认为未来会更模拟化，好吧...我不明白你为何会在这里，但你可以钻回你的末日地堡摆弄业余无线电自得其乐。显然答案是数字化，那么接下来的问题是：任何事物的未来、技术的未来，是更Web2还是更Web3？

If you think it's more analog somehow then okay, I don't know why you're here, but you can crawl back under your little doomsday bunker and crank up your ham radio and have a good time, but the answer is obviously digital and then from there is the future of anything, the future of technology, is it more Web two or is it more Web three?

你很难说服我未来更偏向Web2。

You're gonna have a hard time convincing me it's more Web two.

那么货币的未来是法币（如法定货币），还是更倾向于硬资产和比特币这类无法被印刷和贬值的东西？

And then is the future of money fiat, like fiat currencies, or is it more hard assets and things like Bitcoin, things you can't print and devalue?

基于我们现在对法币的了解。

Based on what we know now about fiat currencies.

各位，如果这三个问题你们不选B选项，那真是疯了。

Guys, you would have to be out of your minds to not answer B on all three of those questions.

而我们足够幸运地生活在这场数字复兴中。

And we are fortunate enough to live through this digital renaissance.

当全世界都在指着这些公司嘲笑，仅仅因为价格大跌时——哦，我还得提一句，MSTR已经从今年高点跌去了三分之二。

So while the world is sitting there pointing and laughing at these companies just because the price is going down a lot and oh, I should mention this as well, MSTR is already three times off of their high that they achieved this year.

至于MetaPlanet，天啊，他们现在什么情况？

And MetaPlanet, my god, what are they?

比五月份达到的高点跌去了七成多。

More than seven times off the high they achieved back in May.

大多数人，甚至金融界人士，尤其是金融界的，认为你在这些公司价格莫名其妙暴跌时买入简直是疯了。

Most people, even in the financial world, especially in the financial world, think that you buying these companies at severely depressed out of nowhere prices is somehow crazy.

而我们却能坐在这里意识到这份礼物——至少是潜在的礼物——就摆在眼前，它们即将进入存在周期的回响阶段。

When we get to sit here and realize the gift, the potential gift at least sitting right in front of us, which will soon be entering the echo phase of their existence.

事实上我们有机会成为早期参与者。

And we actually have the opportunity to be early.