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我认为这是有史以来的新高走势。
My take is that this is the new all time high run.
只要你稳住不动，很可能在接下来的六周内能以12.5万美元的价格卖出。
That if you just hold on to your seat, that you're probably gonna be able to sell a 125 k at some point in the next six weeks.
今天的节目由Kraken Pro赞助。
Today's episode is brought to you by Kraken Pro.
你将在本期节目的后面听到更多关于他们的内容。
You'll hear more about them later in today's episode.
和往常一样，对区块链技术的投资涉及风险，条款和条件适用。
As always, investments in blockchain technology involve risk, terms, and conditions apply.
天啊，乔纳。
Oh man, Jonah.
不得不说，今年开局非常不错。
This has been a great start to the year, have to say.
一切进展都很顺利，除了我之前预测2026年模因币不会反弹。
Everything is going really well except my prediction that meme coins were not going to stage a recovery in 2026.
不过，当我这么说的时候，你不同意我的观点，我得承认你说得对。
However, when I said that, you disagreed with me to give you credit where credit is due.
你说过，你不会在新年伊始就做空。
You said, I wouldn't just short it going into the new year.
你会等它反弹后再
Would wait for a pop and then
做空，我完全不同意你的观点，主要是因为我对比特币极度看涨。
short I disagreed with you wholeheartedly, mainly because I was super bullish on Bitcoin.
我知道，当山寨币出现大幅回撤时，如果你看多市场，就绝不能做空，因为你总会遇到这种荒谬的反弹，而这正是发生的情况。
And I just know that when you get this massive drawdown in altcoins that you can never short if you're bullish the market because you're going to get these ridiculous rallies, which is kind of what happened.
但我认为，核心观点仍然成立，即在2026年，我认为山寨币整体上可能不会表现得很好。
But I think the point still stands, which is that in 2026, I think that meme coins will probably not do particularly well in aggregate.
当然，这意味着它们会有一些表现非常出色的时期，比如Pepe上涨了70%，这正是我担心的，所以我才对乔纳说：我不知道。
Obviously that means that there will be periods of time where they do really well, like Pepe going up 70%, which is what I was scared of, which is why I said, Hey, Jonah, I don't know.
也许你该等反弹后再对山寨币彻底看空。
Maybe you want to wait for the pot before you get all bearish on meme coins.
我的意思是，唯一的
I mean, the only
说句公道话，我回应说，你很可能对这一点。
to my credit, I I responded, yeah, you're probably right to that.
所以我没有做空，因为我太懒了。
So and I didn't short any because I was too lazy.
那么我们现在要不要做空这些东西？
So now do we get short these things?
它们简直疯涨。
They just freaking roost.
我还没准备好，因为我还不打算认定这一波行情已经结束。
I'm I'm not I'm not ready yet just because I'm not ready to call the end of this move.
我觉得我们已经在85到90这个区间盘整了太久太久。
I think that we've consolidated in this 85 to 90 area for such a long time now.
这看起来非常类似于比特币之前见底时的情形。
And this looks very similar to the previous bottoms that Bitcoin held.
我觉得我们要经历一场大波动了。
I think that we're in for a ride.
我觉得股票市场即将经历一场大波动。
I think that the equity markets are in for a ride.
黄金也要经历一场大波动。
Gold is in for a ride.
今年我们开局非常好，非常好，非常好。
We are off to a really, really, really great start this year.
你唯一不应该做的就是袖手旁观。
And the only thing that you probably shouldn't be is sidelined.
我认为这波行情才刚刚开始，这就是为什么上周我谈到买入这些1月100K看涨期权，因为我非常确信我们会迎来一个强劲的开局，而现在看来确实如此。
And I think that the move has just started, which is why last week I talked about buying these January 100 ks calls because I was pretty convicted that we were going to get a good start to the new year and it seems to be what's happening.
所以我大量买入了这些看涨期权。
And so kind of loaded up on those calls.
它们到目前为止已经翻了一倍，但我认为还有更大的上涨空间。
Basically they've doubled so far, but I think that there's more to go.
我认为比特币很容易触及10万、10万5千，届时我会适当减仓。
I think that Bitcoin could easily tag 100, 100 and 5, at which point I'd be reducing a little bit.
我不确定，但过去七天市场的结构和所有发生的事情都表明，未平仓合约——也就是系统中杠杆交易者的数量——并没有疯狂涌入，目前也没有过度杠杆。
I I don't know, the structure of the market and everything that's happened over the last seven days, it's very good to see that open interest, which basically means the number of leveraged traders in the system, they're not banging the drum and getting in, they're not getting over their skis right now.
资金费率相对温和。
Funding rates are reasonably muted.
而且，整体风险偏好似乎也回来了。
And then also just broader risk appetite seems to be back.
黄金继续上涨。
Gold continues to rise.
而且，这是第一次我们与整个市场同步上涨，这告诉我，那些我们曾极度害怕的卖家——那些疯狂抛售我们的比特币、想把它砸到零的人——似乎已经耗尽了力量。
And for the first time, sort of we're going up together with the rest of the market, which tells me that the sellers that we were so scared of, those angry, aggressive, mean people that kept selling our beautiful Bitcoin to zero, they seem to have run out.
我相当确定，在价格突破10万美元之前，我们不会看到更多的供应释放。
And I'm pretty, I don't think we get more supply activation until you get above at least a 100.
这就是我的总体看法。
So that's my general take.
我知道这并不遥远。
And I know that's not that far away.
事实上，我的看法是，这是一轮新的历史新高行情。
Really, like my take is that this is the new all time high run.
如果你只是稳住不动，很可能在接下来的六周内能以12.5万美元的价格卖出。
That if you just hold on to your seat, that you're probably going to be able to sell 125 ks at some point in the next six weeks.
是的，我也这么认为。
Yeah, think so too.
我的意思是，我们俩在《1000倍》播客中都预测过，比特币会在一月份迎来一波暴涨，因为抛压已经结束，人们重新参与进来，坐下来投资。
I mean, that's something that both of us did predict on the 1000x podcast, that Bitcoin would have a rip roar in January because the selling's done, people reengage, they sit down, they invest.
今年年初以来，比特币已经上涨了8%。
Bitcoin's up 8% since the start of the year.
差不多已经过去了四天半。
It's been four and a half days ish.
这是一个很大的涨幅。
And that's a big move.
我同意你的观点。
And I agree with you.
我认为这仅仅是开始。
I think it's just the beginning.
我认为这将是冲击新高点的行情。
I think this is the run to fresh all time highs.
就比特币而言，我已全部投入。
I'm fully invested as far as Bitcoin is concerned.
在我的整个加密货币投资组合中，我保持一小部分其他加密资产，大部分是比特币，然后我保留一小部分用于交易。
Maintain a small crypto of my total crypto portfolio, it's mostly Bitcoin, and then I maintain a small allocation to trade.
去年，尽管在Hyperliquid上盈利，但我的交易部分还是亏损了。
Last year, despite winning on Hyperliquid, that trading allocation was down.
但今年，如果我们进入我喜欢的山寨币行情，我打算扩大我的交易仓位。
But this year, I think I'm going to start expanding that trading allocation if we end up in some kind of alt season for the alts that I like.
我不喜欢膜币。
I do not like memes.
我认为它们在全年范围内普遍不会超越比特币。
I think they're not going to outperform Bitcoin over the course of the year in general.
我仍然想在这个反弹中卖出。
I still want to sell this pop.
我只是不知道该怎么做或何时做。
I just don't know how or when.
所以我会密切监控它。
So I'm going be monitoring it closely.
我认为，如果我们看到比特币涨至历史新高，它可能会像往常一样传导至以太坊和部分山寨币，但并非大多数。
And I think that if we do get a rally in Bitcoin to the all time highs, it'll probably just cascade through to ETH and then some alts, but not most, the way that it usually does.
在这一轮上涨中，你将有机会做空高FTV、低流通量的VC解锁代币对冲比特币。
And on that rally, you'll have fantastic opportunities to short high FTV, low float VC unlocked coins versus Bitcoin.
这些对冲组合会表现良好。
Those pairs will look good.
所以我认为这个策略会奏效。
So I think that playbook will work.
在我们深入之前，也要注意到并不是所有的模因币都表现良好。
Before we get too deep it's also like not all meme coins have performed.
好吧，没错，我最不喜欢的币种已经上涨了40%。
Okay, yes, with my least favorite coin ever is up 40 percent.
你问1000x终端这个问题，能得到比ChatGPT更好的答案，因为它连接了所有信息源，而且是原生加密货币的。
You get a better answer asking the 1000x terminal this question than ChatGPT because it's connected to all the sources and it's crypto native.
Pepe是最重要的那个。
Pepe's the big one.
它已经上涨了70%。
It's up 70%.
SHIB上涨了30%。
SHIB is up 30%.
你只需要问：这些币种今年至今的回报率是多少？
You just ask, Hey, what's the year to date return on these things?
Fartcoin上涨了33%。
Fartcoin is up 33%.
基本上，在从特朗普币时刻到年底这段时间里，如果你做多 meme 币而做空 BTC，你可能会亏损 90% 或 80%。
It's basically like after you would have lost 90% or 80% being long meme versus BTC from probably the Trump coin moment until the end of the year.
它们的表现比比特币高出 20%。
They've outperformed Bitcoin by 20%.
如果你全部押注 Pepe，当然，你可能会赚 70%。
If you'd just gone all in on Pepe, sure, you would have made 70%.
但平均而言，
But like on average, the
再次， meme 币在低点时达到峰值。
memes Again, at the peak of low.
但即便如此，我认为你操作的方式应该是：好吧，你看，当比特币处于低位盘整时，你通常不应该做空任何资产，对吧？
But still, I think the way that you run this is you basically say, okay, look, you never want to get short anything generally when Bitcoin's consolidating at lows, right?
如果你看多比特币，你实际上是在说：涨潮时，所有船只都会被抬高。
Like if you're bullish on Bitcoin, you're kind of saying, Hey, a rising tide lifts all boats.
很难想象比特币涨到 12.5 万美元，而其他所有资产却表现糟糕的情景。
It's very difficult to imagine a scenario where Bitcoin is going to rip up to 125 ks and the rest of the market is going to do poorly.
实际上，你思考这些问题的方式，以及我在上一期播客中试图表达的是，你必须等待行情启动。
Really, the way that you think about these things and what I was trying to articulate on the last podcast is you have to wait for the move.
你必须等待行情爆发，因为在2026年全年，我认为你不太可能会看到旧版模因币出现疯狂、疯狂、疯狂的热潮。
You have to wait for the pop to play out because over the course of 2026, what I think you're probably not going to see is you're not going to see like a crazy, crazy, crazy meme coin mania with the old meme coins.
最终表现良好的很可能是所有新的模因币。
It's probably all the new meme coins that end up doing well.
这正是我在上一期播客中想表达的重点：现在我认为你可以专注于你的大盘币。
That was really the point of what I was trying to say on the last podcast is that right now I think you can focus on your large caps.
你可以专注于你的比特币。
I think you can focus on your BTC.
而且说实话，对我来说命中率最高的交易就是，当我们交易在87附近时，我们一直在强调：强劲的行情即将到来，而且会很快到来。
And I think honestly, highest hit rate trade for me is just that we're getting like, you know, when we were trading 87, like banging the drum on we're going to get a strong move and we're going to get it quickly.
而现在正在发生的就是，比特币——你看，我们刚刚突破了94。
And that's what's happening right now, is that Bitcoin Look, we're just breaking above 94 here.
基本上，如果你想在2026年赚取最大利润，那就关注比特币看涨期权、黄金看涨期权，还有钯金，这简直疯狂。
Basically, think if you're trying to make maximum money in 2026, know, Bitcoin calls, gold calls, know, palladium, it's crazy.
我们在上一期播客中讨论过这个。
We were talking about it on the last podcast.
我们就这样得到了。
We got like that.
我们确实得到了。
We got that.
这就像一次比特币式的行情。
It was like a Bitcoin like move.
这是一次在三天内完成的山寨币式行情。
It was an altcoin like move in three days.
太糟糕了。
Nasty.
这东西从高点下跌了25%。
This thing drops down 25% off the highs.
猜猜怎么着？
And guess what?
它立刻反弹了14%。
It bounces right back up 14%.
我的意思是，这恰恰说明了正在发生的事情：今天早上雷·达利奥发表了一篇非常出色的文章，我认为每个人都应该读一读。
I mean, I think that's just telling you what's going on, which is that Ray Dalio put out a great piece this morning, which I think everyone should read.
这篇文章的核心观点是我们一直讨论的问题，即美元正在被彻底摧毁。
And basically the core premise of this is something that we've been talking about for a while, which is that the dollar is just getting destroyed.
从各个角度来看，美元都在被摧毁，硬通货和大宗商品的表现远超一切。
From basically every angle, the dollar is getting destroyed, that hard currencies, commodities are outperforming everything.
别提美国股市了。
Forget even The US stock market.
达利奥提出的一个观点我认为非常正确：大家都在谈论人工智能正在吞噬世界，人工智能表现得非常好。
One point that Dalio makes, which I think is very true, that everyone's talking about how AI is eating the world and how AI is doing really well.
但与此同时，标普500指数却远远落后于黄金。
And yet somehow the S and P is massively underperforming gold.
所以问题来了，真正驱动市场的因素究竟是什么？那是一个
And so the question is, what's really driving, what is the real That's a
这是一个红鲱鱼，这个论点。
red herring, that argument.
这是一个红鲱鱼。
That's a red herring.
等一下。
Hold on.
我想说的是，当今世界真正的驱动力是什么？
What I'm trying to say is that what's the real driving force in today's world?
真正的驱动力是货币的贬值。
The real driving force is devaluation of currencies.
是的，人工智能是一个巨大的驱动力，但更大的泡沫才是当前真正发生的事情——这就是为什么去年黄金上涨了60%，而股市只上涨了20%，无论人工智能如何发展，这才是核心问题：全球范围内正在发生大规模的货币贬值。
And yes, AI is a huge driving force, but the bigger bubble, which is why gold was up 60% last year and equity markets were up 20%, regardless of whatever AI is doing is the real thing that's happening right now, is that there's a massive devaluation of currencies around the world.
这可能将持续到2026年。
And this is probably going to continue throughout 2026.
这对比特币非常有利。
And that's really good for Bitcoin.
这对黄金非常有利。
That's really good for gold.
这对白银也非常有利。
It's really good for silver.
这对钯金也非常有利。
It's really good for palladium.
这对铀非常有利，我之前已经为此鼓吹了一段时间。
It's really great for uranium, which I've been beating the drum on for a bit.
我准备重新进入铀市场。
I'm ready to get back into uranium.
我之前卖出了少许，但现在准备重新入场。
I'd sold out a little bit, but now I'm ready to get back in.
我觉得我可能卖得太早了，但我现在准备重新投入这个市场。
I think it might maybe I sold out too early, but I'm ready to get back in this thing.
是的。
Yeah.
我觉得你对任何东西都不算晚，除了黄金。
I don't you're too late on anything except gold.
你有一张白纸，但我要说的是，你刚才提到的资产中，黄金可能是最不安全的买入选择。
You had a clean slate, the only thing that I would say is probably not the safest buy here of what you just mentioned is gold.
我觉得比特币即将暴涨。
I think Bitcoin's about to go ballistic.
我觉得股市将继续飙升。
I think that the stock market's going to continue going ballistic.
我之所以说这是个烟幕弹，你关于股市涨幅不如黄金的论点，是因为去美元化同时影响黄金和股市。
The reason why I said it's a red herring, your argument about the stock market rallying less than gold, is that de dollarization impacts both gold and the stock market.
它们都是以美元计价的。
They're both USD denominated.
推动股市的不仅仅是人工智能。
AI is not the only thing driving the stock market.
当你谈论股市时，你指的是标普500指数。
When you talk about the stock market, you're talking about the S and P 500.
AI对大多数这些公司的影响是次要或三次的，非常间接。
AI has secondary or tertiary, very indirect effects on most of those companies.
也许其中四百五十家公司最多只是因为ChatGPT，公司内部的人变得聪明了一点，也许一些中层管理者被解雇了。
Maybe four fifty of them are just, at best, the people inside of those companies are a little smarter because of ChatGPT and maybe a few middle managers get fired.
但大多数AI带来的收益实际上都集中在英伟达、谷歌这些去年涨幅甚至超过黄金的公司身上。
But most of the AI gains really aggregate to NVIDIA, Google, the companies that rallied even more than gold did last year.
所以我认为，把AI和黄金做比较，你需要找一个比整个股市更纯粹的标的，才能做到真正的公平对比。
So I think the whole AI thing versus gold, you'd need to look at a more pure play than the entire stock market to make that comparison apples to apples.
不过，我知道我同意你的总体观点，我觉得你提出的观点并不是无效的或什么的。
However, you know, I do agree with your general premise, and I I don't think the point you're you're making is, like, invalid or anything.
我只是想澄清一下。
I just wanted to clarify it.
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Plus, you get real time risk tools and Kraken signature deep liquidity all in one trusted platform.
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Crypto trading involves risk of loss, and margin is not for everyone.
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Margin services are offered to US customers through Payword Interactive Inc.
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For full disclosures, visit kraken.com/legal/disclosures and review Kraken's margin disclosure statement.
一如既往，投资区块链技术存在风险，条款和条件适用。
As always, investments in blockchain technology involve risk, terms, and conditions apply.
关于模因币，我最后再补充一点看法。
As far as meme coins, one final thought on that.
你说话的时候，我生成了一张图片。
While you were talking, I generated an image.
由于尼古拉斯·马杜罗现在住在布鲁克林，这还挺酷的，我生成了
Since Nicolas Maduro lives in Brooklyn now, which is pretty cool, I generated
是啊，也许我该去拜访他。
Yeah, maybe I should go visit him.
我生成了一张AI图像，描绘了布鲁克林hipster威廉斯堡的尼古拉斯·马杜罗。
I generated an AI image of hipster Williamsburg, Nicholas Maduro.
什么
What
你正在用你的
are you It doing with your
花不了多少时间。
doesn't take much time.
现在生成这种垃圾还不到一秒钟。
It takes less than one second to create this slop now.
我在想，如果这是2024年，我可以用这张图制作一个hipster马杜罗表情包，然后通过播客发给一千万到两千万人。
What I was thinking is if this were 2024, I could create a hipster Maduro meme out of this image and probably send it to 10,000,000 or 20,000,000 with a podcast.
但这种事情再也不会发生了。
But that's just not happening anymore.
这正是我说 meme 币市场有点烂的意思。
That's kind of what I mean when I say that the meme coin space is a little bit fucked.
我
I
是啊，说实话，我不确定，因为我根本没去查，这本来应该是我去做的。
Yeah, mean, to be fair, like, I don't know because I didn't actually check, which probably should have.
因为有一段时间，乔纳，我不知道你还记不记得，
Because there's a period of time, Jonah, I don't know if you remember this
根本不存在了，
at all,
但确实曾经有一段真实的时间，你可以监控世界事件，一旦有什么大事发生，就立刻去 Dex Screener 查找与之相关的代币，你总会找到某种因为人人都在赌这玩意儿而暴涨到五千万的币。
but there was like a real genuine period of time where you could just monitor world events, and then if anything happened, you would immediately go to Dex screener and you would look for tickers related to that thing and you would inevitably find some sort of coin that had run to 50,000,000 because everyone and their mother was gambling on this shit.
我的意思是，老兄，像
I mean, dude, like the
所以这事结束了。
So that's done.
就像花生松鼠，对吧？
Like Peanut the Squirrel, right?
你还记得那事儿吗？
You remember that shit?
哦，花生太棒了。
Oh, peanut was amazing.
Slurf，有各种各样的东西。
Slurf, there are all sorts of things.
是啊，你看，马杜罗，你去查一下，这就是前线的真实状况。
Yeah, like look, I mean, Maduro, like you go, this is the state of the trenches, man.
你去搜马杜罗，我能找到最好的结果也就几百万美元的市值。
You go look up Maduro and the best thing that I can find is like couple million market cap.
我的意思是，这太无聊了。
I mean, that's pretty boring.
你们在外面干什么呢？
What are you guys doing out there?
对，这就是我的意思。
Yeah, that's what I mean.
基本上，如果WIF上涨了38%，而比特币只上涨了8%，那就是算法对算法的暴力行为。
Basically, like if WIF is up 38% with Bitcoin up 8%, that's just algo on algo violence.
这基本上意味着WIF已经建立了足够大的市值，以至于某个相关性机器人可能会想：好吧，它应该大致是比特币的4.5倍贝塔值，所以当它的涨幅低于这个贝塔值时我就买入，高于时就卖出。
That's basically like WIF has established itself with a big enough market cap that some correlation bot is probably like, Okay, it should be roughly 4.5x beta to Bitcoin, so let me just bid it when it's up less than that beta and offer it when it's up more.
但这种状况只在非常短暂、流动性差的时期内能持续。
But that's only sustainable for very short, illiquid periods of time.
从长远来看，所有这些资产的持有者都会在价格上涨时试图套现。
Over the long run, all of this stuff, bag holders will try to get their liquidity when it goes up.
这就是我仍然喜欢做空这些东西的原因。
That's why I still like shorting this stuff.
但显然，这比我想象的要难多了。
It's just apparently it's not as easy as I thought it would be.
这中间有点技巧。
There's a little bit of technique to it.
我们该谈谈不，
Should we talk No,
有，而且我们以前讨论过这个。
there's And we've talked about this before.
还记得我以前讲过如何做空吗？那是很久以前的一期节目了，但当时讲的是，你该怎么总体上思考做空呢？
Remember when I was talking about how to, this was an episode a long time ago, but it was really like, how do you think about shorting things in general?
你做空时必须非常有策略。
You always have to be very tactical with it.
通常来说，你希望在这些资产从某个水平开始出现显著的推动性上涨后才开始做空，因为这种走势会吸引那些早期的卖方，对吧？
And generally what you want to do is you want to start shorting these things after they've made some sort of significant, an impulse driven move off of some level, because that type of move is what draws in the old sellers, right?
而那些可能不想在低位抛售的人，如果某资产从低点上涨了70%，现在他们就非常愿意入场了，他们会想：好吧，现在终于轮到我退出这个资产了。
And what draws in the people that maybe they don't want to sell off the lows, but if something's up 70% off the lows, now people are really willing to get in and they're like saying, okay, well, now this is my chance to finally exit this asset.
我认为这很可能就是即将发生的事情。
And that I think is probably what's going to happen.
我的意思是，去看看WorldCoin吧。
I mean, like, go, go, go, go, go look at WorldCoin.
我不认为，无论萨姆·阿尔特曼怎么推这个项目，如果看看之前从低点反弹的行情，WorldCoin曾经从低点上涨了200%，又另一次上涨了160%。
I don't think that no matter how much Sam Altman tries to pump that thing, like if this gets, you know, let's look at previous rallies off lows, Worldcoin up 200% off the lows once, goes up 160% off the lows another time.
现在我们才从低点上涨了大约30%。
Right now we're about 30% off the lows.
所以也许你该等到它回升到125%左右再行动。
So maybe you want to wait until it gets back up to like 125.
那时候，那将是这辈子最棒的做空机会。
And then that's looking greatest short of a lifetime.
然后你拿它对冲比特币，就能坐享其成。
And then you short that thing against Bitcoin and you're sitting very pretty.
我的意思是，别以为那之后价格还会大幅上涨，对吧？
I mean, don't think that things moving particularly hard after that, right?
归根结底，做空的关键就在于当前的入场时机。
It's all about like shorting at the end of the day, it's all about setups now.
而做多的关键在于，交易中的一切归根结底都在于入场点。
And getting long is all about everything in trading at the end of the day is about the entry.
你到底该在哪里持有这个仓位？
It's where you actually hold this thing?
你真正能持有这笔交易的位置在哪里？
Where can you actually hold this trade?
这就是为什么我认为，如果你目前在比特币上持观望态度，最好尽快行动，而不是拖延，因为我觉得当前的市场结构非常有利，它告诉我，行情可能会迅速启动。
That's why I think you should probably move faster rather than slower if you're sidelined on Bitcoin right now, just because I think we're The market structure here looks very good and it tells me, Hey, things might be moving pretty quickly.
十年后，这看起来将是一次世代级别的入场机会。
This is going to look like a generational entry in ten years.
我真心相信比特币会涨到一百万美元。
I really believe Bitcoin's going to a million dollars.
十年后？当然，乔纳。
In ten years, yeah, of course, Jonah.
我的意思是，
Well, mean,
我们大约一个月了。
we're about one month.
这将是一个为期一个月的入场机会。
This is going be an entry for one month.
我认为这将在一个月内成为全垒打，并在十年的时间框架内创造代际财富。
I think it's going to be a grand slam in a month and a generational wealth creation event over a ten year time frame.
我这么表达吧。
Let me put it that way.
我非常看多。
I'm very bullish.
我真的这么认为。
I really am.
我不明白为什么这会下跌。
I do not understand why this would go down.
有趣的是，我们大概应该抽出一点时间谈谈委内瑞拉和伊朗，因为正在发生重大的地缘政治变化。
Interestingly enough, we should probably carve out a bit of time to talk about Venezuela and Iran because there are big geopolitical shifts happening.
这对数字资产以及其他可能有交易机会的商品也将产生影响。
And it's going to matter for digital assets as well as other commodities that potentially there's a trading opportunity on.
我要说，这只是传闻，并非事实。
Will say, this is rumor, not fact.
据称委内瑞拉囤积了相当数量的比特币。
Apparently Venezuela had stockpiled quite a stack of BTC.
我知道特拉菲加据称在规避制裁的情况下运输委内瑞拉的货物，或者至少我听说过这类传闻。
I knew that Trafigura allegedly was moving cargoes of Venezuelan around sanctions with or at least I'd heard rumors.
谁知道他们是否真的这么做了？
Who knows if they've actually done it?
并以泰达币或比特币收款。
And taking payment in Tether or Bitcoin.
如果我知道马杜罗拥有大量黄金，我一点也不惊讶。
I would not be surprised if I know Maduro has a lot of gold.
这可是众所周知的。
That's famous.
这背后有一段长达百年的历史，涉及二十世纪美国对委内瑞拉的干预。
There's a whole history behind that that goes back one hundred years with The United States' involvements in Venezuela during the twentieth century.
但对于比特币，我认为他们一直在囤积。
But for Bitcoin, I think they've been stacking it.
现在美国可能已经掌握了这些储备，或者通过逼供来获取密钥和助记词。
And now The US probably has access to that reserve or torturing people to get it and to get the seed phrase.
基本上，有些问题比如：这些比特币会被出售吗？
And basically, there are some questions like, will it get sold?
它们会被纳入美国的战略比特币储备吗？
Will it get rolled into The US strategic Bitcoin reserve?
它们会被托管起来吗？
Will it get put into escrow?
如果他们没有用没收的比特币作为战略储备（SBR）的基础，我会感到震惊。
I think I would be shocked if they didn't just create the foundation of the SBR with seized Bitcoin.
所以我认为我们可能会看到——
And so I think we could see-
这不正是关键所在吗？
That's sort of the whole point, right?
战略比特币储备（SBR）的整个目的就是，在这种情况下，你能积累比特币并把它藏起来。
The whole point of the SBR, the strategic Bitcoin reserve is so that in situations like this, you are able to accumulate that Bitcoin and put it kind of like, shove it away.
我认为委内瑞拉的可能性非常、非常、非常高。
I think Venezuela, it's very, very, very likely.
再说一遍，是的，这还是传闻，但我认为有相当充分的证据表明，他们曾长期大量参与比特币挖矿。
Again, yes, this is rumor, but I think this is pretty well substantiated that they were heavy in the Bitcoin mining space for a decent amount of time.
显然，他们能获得极其廉价的能源。
Obviously they have access to extremely cheap energy.
他们可以以近乎零成本的方式挖矿比特币。
They can mine Bitcoin at effectively zero cost.
因此，作为一个受制裁的国家，这显然是他们要做的事。
And so obviously I think that as a sanctioned country, that's what they're going to be doing.
而这些传闻，很可能就是他们一直在做的事，对吧？
And the rumors, that's probably what they have been doing, right?
他们不仅在公开市场上积累了大量的比特币，而且很可能通过低成本的能源进行比特币挖矿。
Is they've been accumulating substantial amounts of Bitcoin, not only on the open market, but most likely through Bitcoin mining with their low cost of energy.
这告诉我，我认为这可能是比特币价格上涨的原因之一：当你削弱像这样的毒品国家时，你可能会消除一部分供应来源，对吧？
And so what that tells me, and I think this is actually perhaps one of the reasons for Bitcoin rallying is that when you take down a narco state like that, you probably remove some source of supply, right?
这些国家很可能将比特币挖矿作为资助其运作的手段。
These states are very likely using their Bitcoin mining as ways to fund their operations.
我猜测，他们更可能是比特币的净卖家，而不是净买家。
They're probably a net seller, not a net buyer of Bitcoin would be my guess.
因此，推翻委内瑞拉和马杜罗政权，并将其整个运营纳入一个不出售比特币、也不需要比特币来资助其运作的国家，很可能对比特币有利。
And so taking down Venezuela and taking down Maduro and sort of subsuming their entire operations into a country that does not sell any Bitcoin and that does not need Bitcoin to fund their operations, it's probably net beneficial for BTC.
如果伊朗发生政权更迭，我个人认为这种情况会加倍成立。
This would be doubly true if Iran goes through regime change, in my personal opinion.
如果伊朗发生政权更迭，你可能应该开始大量买入比特币看涨期权。
If Iran goes through regime change, you probably want to start buying a ton of Bitcoin calls.
这正是这个播客的主旨所在：我们坐在这里彼此交谈，试图通过逻辑推理，找出在未来可能采取的具体交易策略，对吧？
That's kind of like the whole point of this podcast is us sitting here talking to each other, trying to like logic our way to specific trades that we might want to take given the future, right?
所以现在你知道了，嘿，委内瑞拉被关停后，比特币表现得非常好。
So now you know, Hey, Bitcoin did really well after Venezuela got taken offline.
这可能与他们进行比特币挖矿、供应被切断有关。
Could have something to do with the fact that they were Bitcoin mining and supplies being taken offline.
伊朗在这一点上实际上是一个更大的玩家。
Iran's actually an even bigger player when it comes to this.
他们很清楚自己用比特币来资助其运作。
They would know that they use Bitcoin to finance their operations.
这就是哈马斯拥有数十亿美元的部分原因——是因为币安，是因为伊朗对比特币的热爱。
It's, that's why it's half the reason that Hamas had billions of dollars is Binance, is, is, is because of Iran's love for, love for Bitcoin.
所以我的看法是，如果你看到伊朗发生政权更迭，比特币可能会有延迟反应。
So my take on this is that if you, if you do see regime change in Iran, there'll probably be a delayed reaction from Bitcoin.
这给了你作为听众的时间，去实际积累一些看涨期权，甚至可能是短期的，对吧？
And that gives you the listener the time to actually probably go accumulate some calls, possibly even short dated stuff, right?
比如一周或两周后，你可能会看到比特币上涨6%。
Like a week, two weeks out, maybe you get a 6% pop in BTC.
所以，你知道，我希望伊朗垮台，原因有很多，但这一点就很好。
So, you know, I want Iran to fall for a variety of reasons, but this one would be good.
这一点也很重要，你知道吗？
This one's up there, you know?
这一点，任何人都会高兴。
This one, anybody can be happy.
即使你是阿亚图拉的拥护者和什叶派原教旨主义者，你也会因为比特币上涨而兴奋，因为阿亚图拉正在倒台。
Even if you're a lover of the Ayatollah and a Shia fundamentalist, you can get excited about being long Bitcoin and the Ayatollah is falling because Bitcoin will rally.
但没错，我同意你的看法。
But yes, I agree with you.
我们再回到你之前谈委内瑞拉的话题，委内瑞拉的电力供应主要来自水电。
Think Well, just going back to your conversation about Venezuela, The power generation in Venezuela is mostly hydro.
其余部分则依赖于这种——你知道的，水电是发电的好方式，但最高效的发电方式其实是通过燃气轮机燃烧天然气。
And then the rest of it is covered by this, like, very you know, basically, hydro is a good way to generate power, but the most efficient way to generate electricity is through gas, just burning gas in a turbine, natural gas.
最低效的发电方式之一就是燃烧原油或燃料油。
One of the least efficient ways to do it is to burn crude oil or fuel oil.
这是一种对生态造成灾难性破坏、极度低效的发电方式。
This is an ecologically catastrophic, ultra inefficient way to make electricity.
你会在原油过剩的地方看到这种情况，比如沙特阿拉伯，那里正在逐步淘汰这种做法，因为他们很聪明。
And you'll see it in places with way too much crude, like Saudi Arabia, where it's getting phased out because they're smart.
但在委内瑞拉，他们正是用这种方式来填补电力缺口。
But in Venezuela, that's what they do to cover the gap.
委内瑞拉曾经长期面临轮流停电，电力管理混乱。
And Venezuela was still a place where they were, like, rolling blackouts and power was mismanaged.
但毫无疑问，比特币挖矿在当地确有发生，一些人利用廉价的政府补贴水电，在家中挖矿，用比特币来支付生活开销，因为委内瑞拉的货币——玻利瓦尔——已经严重超发，变得一文不值。
But absolutely, Bitcoin mining was going on both by individuals who are getting cheap government subsidized hydropower, probably just, mining it at their homes and using it to pay for their lives because the Venezuelan, what's their currency unit, the peso, just totally hyperinflated into worthlessness.
而政府很可能也利用比特币来购买武器、资助毒品交易，以及从事其他种种恶劣可耻的活动。
And then the government was also probably using it to buy weapons and finance drug trade and do all sorts of other heinous, reprehensible stuff.
如果委内瑞拉走向正常经济，这种挖矿行为将停止。
So that selling is going to stop if Venezuela becomes a normal economy.
因此，这很可能对比特币构成利好。
So that's probably bullish Bitcoin.
此外，他们可能还从战略比特币储备中出售比特币，以资助各种贿赂、付款，只是为了防止这个纸牌屋倒塌。
Also, they were probably selling Bitcoin out of their strategic Bitcoin reserve to fund whatever it is that they needed to bribes, pay offs, just to keep the house of cards from falling.
现在，这一切也将停止。
That's all going to stop now, too.
因此，市场上出售压力减少了，而美国可能会将这些比特币藏起来，永不出售。
So there's just less selling pressure on the market, and The United States is probably going to tuck away that Bitcoin and never sell it.
所以我认为，没有了以比特币资助毒品恐怖主义的动机性卖方，这对市场来说是一个非常看涨的因素。
So I think that that's a very bullish feature to the market, just not having a motivated seller funding narcoterrorism with Bitcoin.
现在，我们该谈谈那里的石油状况，以及它对原油意味着什么，然后转向伊朗吗？
Now, should we talk about the oil situation there and what it means for crude oil and then go to Iran next?
我认为很多人对这里发生的事情有诸多矛盾的看法，因为显然有一种观点认为，好吧，也许美国进入委内瑞拉会导致石油短期上涨，因为产量会下降。
I think a lot of people had a lot of conflicting opinions on what was happening here because obviously there was the idea that, okay, well maybe The U.
S.
S.
美国进入委内瑞拉会导致石油短期上涨，因为产量会下降。
Comes into Venezuela and that leads to a short term spike in oil because production's going to go down.
另一种看法是，如果美国进入委内瑞拉，并随着时间推移真正促成开放，让美国公司进入，那么由于缺乏开采重油的专业技术，委内瑞拉的产量已下降了约60%，或许我们能回到以前的水平，油价就会大幅下跌。
The other way of thinking about it is that if The US comes into Venezuela and over time actually manages to open it up and US companies come in, then production, which has collapsed by like 60% of Venezuela because of lack of expertise in extracting this heavy crude, then maybe we go back to what it looked like before and then oil prices go down a ton.
但你对X有一个非常精彩的见解，我想我们可以详细聊聊。
But you had a really good take on X, which I think maybe can walk through.
是的。
Yeah.
随时可以提问，因为石油市场非常复杂混乱，人们根本不懂它。
And feel free to ask any any questions because oil is very confusing and complicated, people just don't understand it.
我看到很多关于委内瑞拉对石油影响的极其愚蠢的假设。
I saw a lot of, like, really, really dumb suppositions about what Venezuela means for oil.
我说过油价会在周一上涨，人们却说：‘你疯了。’
I said that oil would rally on Monday, and people were like, you're crazy.
这简直是史上最看跌的观点。
This is the most bearish thing ever.
想象一下你跟乔纳一样愚蠢。
Imagine being as stupid as Jonah.
我可能是加密货币的扮演者，但在石油方面，我确实非常在行。
I may be a crypto LARPer, but I really know my stuff when it comes to oil.
所以我一定会尽力为大家解释清楚。
So I will definitely try to walk people through this.
这并不直观。
It's not intuitive.
委内瑞拉拥有全球最大的已探明石油储量。
So Venezuela has the world's largest proven oil reserves.
这意味着什么？
What does that mean?
这意味着在委内瑞拉地下储存的石油比地球上任何其他国家都多，这简直难以想象。
It means that under Venezuela, there is more oil than than there is in under any other country on Earth, which is crazy to think about.
以当前价格计算，他们地下躺着的石油价值高达数万亿美元。
They have, like, something like tens of trillions of dollar dollars worth of oil at today's prices sitting underground.
所以人们会说：天哪。
So people are like, oh my god.
现在一切都暴露了。
Now it's all coming out.
这些石油将变得一文不值。
This oil is going to zero.
答案是否定的。
The answer is no.
并不是这样。
It's not.
原因如下。
And here's why.
地下埋着的石油是毫无价值的。
There are a couple so oil under the ground is worthless.
只有地面上的石油才可能有价值，但即便如此，它也必须经过提炼，变成我们真正能用的东西，比如喷气燃料或石油产品。
It's just it's only the only even oil above ground is worthless until it gets refined into something that we can actually use like jet fuel or petroleum.
即使如此，汽油和喷气燃料仍然毫无用处，直到它们被内燃机——另一种移动式炼油装置——进一步转化为一种有用的东西，即动力。
And even then, gasoline and jet fuel are still useless until an internal combustion engine, which is another kind of, like, mobile refinery, refines it into something useful called locomotion.
对吧？
Right?
或者在委内瑞拉效率极低的发电厂的情况下，是电力。
Or power in the case of Venezuela's super inefficient power plant.
所以，基本上，地下原油要变得有价值，必须经过多个阶段。
So basically, there are like a number of stages that have to be passed through in order for this under the ground oil to become valuable.
因此，委内瑞拉，全球每天消耗约1.05亿桶石油。
And so basically, Venezuela the world consumes about 105,000,000 barrels of oil per day.
一桶等于42加仑。
A barrel holds 42 gallons.
差不多到腰部那么高。
It's like a little more than waist high.
就是个桶，你知道的。
It's, you know, it's a barrel.
所以，全球的炼油厂每天要消耗掉1.05亿个这样的桶。
So 105,000,000 of those get slurped up by refineries around the world every day.
委内瑞拉目前每天生产约100万桶石油，不到全球消费量的1%。
And Venezuela currently produces about 1,000,000 barrels a day, so less than 1% of the world's consumption.
那么他们的国内经济，你就得问自己，什么决定了价格？
Their domestic economy so then you have to ask yourself, what matters for the price?
他们出口多少？
How much do they export?
对吧？
Right?
你知道，因为他们完全可以全部在国内消费，那样的话委内瑞拉就无关紧要了。
You know, because they could consume all of it internally, and then Venezuela wouldn't matter.
但不幸的是，委内瑞拉管理得一团糟，几乎不消费自己的石油，而是出口大部分。
But, unfortunately, Venezuela is such a mismanaged disaster that they consume almost none of their oil and they export most of it.
所以接下来会发生什么呢？
So then what happens is okay.
所以他们出口这些石油。
So they export this oil.
假设他们每天出口约一百万桶，为简化计算，我们就说略低于一百万桶。
It's like about a mill let's just say slightly under a million barrels a day of exports to keep the math simple.
他们历史上的最高产量是每天三到四百万桶。
Their historical maximum production was three to 4,000,000 barrels a day.
所以我们假设他们能恢复到那个水平。
So let's just say that they get back there.
他们恢复到那个水平的情况，是最看跌的可能情景——即委内瑞拉成为美国的第51个州。
The situation where they get back there is like the most bearish possible scenario is where Venezuela becomes the fifty first state of The United States.
我不是说这会真的发生，但为了理解边界条件，想象一下特朗普把委内瑞拉变成美国的第51个州。
Not saying this is going to happen, but, like, for the sake of understanding the boundary condition, imagine Trump makes Venezuela the fifty first state.
你就会有美国的爱
You have American love
非常非常非常怀疑。
Highly high high highly doubt.
那简直太他妈好笑了。
Highly That would be that would fucking hilarious.
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这简直难以想象。
It would be imagine.
所以我们必须去探索它们。
So we have to explore them.
是的。
Yeah.
这就像是阿拉斯加、夏威夷、委内瑞拉，再加上美国本土48州。
It's like Alaska, Hawaii, and Venezuela, and then the Lower 48.
这基本上是最悲观的情形。
Basically, would be the most bearish.
你知道，委内瑞拉的地质结构非常复杂。
You have it would you know, the geology of Venezuela is very complex.
其中一些石油在室温下是固态的。
The oil, some of it's a solid at room temperature.
你必须将其与稀释剂混合，才能让炼油厂能够处理。
You have to mix it with diluent just to make it, like, consumable by a refinery.
过去，大量的委内瑞拉石油，你知道的，都运往墨西哥湾沿岸的炼油中心，比如德克萨斯州和路易斯安那州，因为那时那是很容易获取的石油来源。
The a lot of Venezuelan and, you know, oil used to go to the Gulf Coast Refining Center, Texas, Louisiana, back in the day when that was just an easy source of oil.
因此，所有炼油厂都设计为处理重质含硫原油，也就是含硫复杂的石油。
So all refineries, they were configured to consume heavy sour, which means sulfuric complex oil.
但现在，显然由于二叠纪盆地页岩油的爆发式增长，这种油几乎是超轻质的甜油，甚至接近一种叫凝析油的东西，它几乎都不算真正的石油。
But now, obviously, because of the explosion of shale in the Permian Basin, that's like ultralight sweet oil, almost something called condensate, which is like, it's like not even oil.
它不会产生任何沥青或燃料油。
Doesn't generate any tar or fuel oil.
它非常非常轻。
It's like really, really light.
因此，在过去十五到二十年里，炼油系统已经从原本为处理委内瑞拉这类石油而优化，转变为优化为处理完全相反类型的石油——轻质甜油。
So basically, the refining system over the course of the last fifteen, twenty years has reconfigured from being optimized to consume Venezuela like oil to being optimized to consume, like, the opposite type of oil, light sweet.
所以，你不能简单地把大量委内瑞拉原油扔进美国墨西哥湾沿岸的炼油系统，指望它能正常运行。
So you couldn't just throw a bunch of Venezuelan into the, you know, Gulf Coast refining system in America and expect it to work well.
这会导致所有炼油厂爆炸，引发各种问题、事故和停产。
It would blow up every refinery, and they would have all kinds of explosions and problems and outages.
所以，人们不理解的是，基础设施不像加密货币那样，代币和资金可以轻松流动，一切几乎都是可替代的，而实物商品市场则截然不同。
So it's it's like infrastructure people people don't understand is is that unlike crypto where tokens and money just move around easily and everything's kind of quasi fungible, the the physical commodities market is very different.
与沙特阿拉伯不同，你在那儿插根牙签油就自己冒出来；而委内瑞拉要想从目前每天一百万桶的产量恢复到几十年前的历史峰值——三到四百万桶，需要好几年时间。
And unlike Saudi Arabia where you stick a a fucking toothpick in the ground and oil comes out, like, Venezuela, in order to restore production from its current million barrel a day threshold to, you know, the maximum historical from decades ago, three to 4,000,000, that would require years.
就像埃克森公司花了五到十年才勘探开发附近的圭亚那巨型油田。
Like, it took Exxon, like, five to ten years to explore the Guyana mega field nearby.
委内瑞拉要想重新实现每天三到四百万桶的产量，至少需要两年，最多可能需要五年。
It would probably take Venezuela a minimum of two, a maximum of five years to get them pumping three to 4,000,000 again ish.
在这种情况下，如果委内瑞拉成为美国第51个州，其经济每天将消耗两千多万桶石油，因为那里有三千万以上的人口。
And in that scenario, Venezuela's economy, in the fifty first state scenario, Venezuela's economy is like consuming 2,000,000 barrels a day because there's 30 plus million people living there.
因此，其出口量将从目前每天一百万桶增加到每天两百万桶。
So then you exports basically go from 1,000,000 a day currently to 2,000,000 a day there.
这相当于每天增加一百万桶的出口量。
That's That's an increase of 1,000,000 a day.
如果真能实现，可能会使油价每桶下跌几美元。
If it moved the needle, it's probably worth a couple bucks lower in flat price.
但这其实没那么严重，人们就是不理解这一点。
But, like, it's not that big a deal, and people just don't understand this.
他们看到世界上最大的已探明石油储量，就认为你是个傻瓜。
They see the the world's biggest proven oil reserves and think you're an idiot.
他们以为石油会神奇地涌出地面并进入市场。
They they think it just magically comes above ground and hits the market.
人们应该更把这想象成在月球上发现了大量石油。
People should more think of this like a bunch of oil is getting discovered on the moon.
这是一个更有说明性的例子，因为问题是：你怎么把它运到地球上的炼油厂？
That's a more illustrative example because it's like, how do you get it to the refineries on Earth?
对吧？
Right?
它简直就像在月球上一样。
It may as well be on the moon.
地下好几英里深。
Miles underground.
对吧？
Right?
而且这并不是容易开采的石油。
And it's it's not easy oil.
所以，基本上，我的牢骚就说完了。
So basically, that's the end of my rant.
而这一问题的最后一点是，从长期来看，这有点看跌，短期嘛，无所谓。
And the the the final piece of this is, you know, so it's a bit bearish long term, meh short term.
但关于政权更迭这件事，我认为更重要的是，这在地缘政治上意味着什么。
But the regime change thing, I think what's more important is, like, what this means geopolitically.
特朗普这么做是为了对中国施加压力，因为中国大量进口委内瑞拉石油，且供应有保障。
So Trump did this to exact leverage over China because China consumes a lot of Venezuela, and it's guaranteed supply.
中国能以低价获得这些石油，因为委内瑞拉因制裁无法将石油卖给其他任何地方。
China gets it at cheap prices because Venezuela couldn't sell it anywhere else because of sanctions.
现在，如果委内瑞拉石油进入公开市场，那就为特朗普提供了更多手段来制裁石油，以此作为遏制中国的棋局——防止他们威胁台湾，因为中国将失去更多石油供应，而石油对他们至关重要。
Now those you know, if that if Venezuelan oil hits the open market, then that's more ways for Trump to be able to sanction oil if to prevent China as a chess move to prevent them from threatening Taiwan because they'll lose more access to oil, which is critical for them.
他们生产的量远远不够。
They don't produce enough, nearly enough.
中国是世界上最大的石油进口国。
They're China's the world's biggest oil importer.
他们需要大量的石油。
They have a lot of oil they have to get.
如果更多石油被美国控制，就可以更多地切断中国的供应。
And so if more of it is controlled by The United States, more of it can be taken away from China.
如果中国做了美国不喜欢的事，就能切断更多他们的生命线。
More of their lifeline can be taken away if they do something The United States doesn't like.
这还破坏了俄罗斯的炼油套利，因为委内瑞拉管理不善，其炼油厂全都瘫痪了。
It also screws up the Russian refining arbitrage because Venezuela is so mismanaged their refineries all went to shit.
所以，委内瑞拉基本上是向俄罗斯出口原油。
So, basically, Venezuela was exporting crude to Russia.
俄罗斯将其炼化，然后将成品油返销给委内瑞拉和其他地区。
Russia was refining it and then sending refined products back to Venezuela and other pieces.
这削弱了俄罗斯对这一局势的影响力。
This screws up Russia's leverage over that.
这使得俄罗斯、中国和伊朗更难在西半球和美国家门口部署武器。
It makes it harder for Russia, China, and Iran to place weapons in the Western Hemisphere and America's doorstep.
最后一点是，如果特朗普现在已经证明他愿意真的派出三角洲部队，去绑架一个国家的领导人，这简直太酷了。
And the final piece is, like, if Trump has now proven that he's willing to literally just, like, send in the Delta Force Commandos, which is so freaking badass to, like, kidnap kidnap a guy who's leader of a country.
这也可能发生在霍梅尼大阿亚图拉身上，而那样的话，油价将大跌。
That can happen to Ayatollah Khomeini too, and now that would be bearish oil.
伊朗的石油情况与委内瑞拉截然不同。
Iran is a very different oil equation than Venezuela.
这将导致油价暴跌，但可能使比特币大幅上涨。
That would be crazy bearish oil and probably pretty bullish Bitcoin.
我有很多想法，但我们先插播广告，一会儿回来。
I've got I've got a lot of thoughts, but let's hit the ad break and come back.
然后我们再讨论地缘政治、石油和比特币的未来会是什么样子。
And then we'll talk about what the future of geopolitics and oil and Bitcoin look like.
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哦，天哪。
Oh, man.
老实说，我觉得你把这里的所有不同角度都阐述得非常好。
Like, it's honestly, I think you did a really great job outlining all of the different angles here.
你最后提到的部分，就是如果我们派三角洲部队去推翻那个我们称其为非合法领导人、但实际上是该国事实上的领导人的家伙，
The last part that you said, which is that if we can send in Delta Force to go remove what, yes, we say is not the legitimate leader, but in reality is very much so the de facto leader of a country.
这对我们与世界其他国家的关系意味着什么？
Does that leave us when it comes to the rest of the world?
那么，世界其他国家会怎么做呢？
Like what is the rest of the world going to do here?
我的意思是，我不认为伊朗爆发大规模抗议活动、要求推翻阿亚图拉，同时雷扎·沙阿首次在推特和其他媒体上大力发声，这纯粹是巧合。
Mean, I don't think, I really don't think it's a coincidence here that there are mass protests going on in Iran to remove Ayatollah at the same time that Reza Shah is now for the first time, like really going hard on Twitter and other media sources.
雷扎·沙阿是伊朗过渡政府的预定领导人。
Reza Shah is the presumed leader of Iran in a transitionary government.
他是儿子，他
He's the son He
这家伙没戏。
has no Riz, that guy.
这哥们确实没戏，遗憾。
The guy has no Riz unfortunately.
实际上，我私下跟乔纳说过这个。
Actually, I said this to Jonah in a private chat.
我觉得如果雷扎·沙赫再高三英寸，长得再帅点，伊朗昨天就沦陷了。
I think if Reza Shah was like three inches taller and better looking, like it would be over like Iran would have fallen yesterday.
但不知为什么，他没什么魅力，也不善言辞。
But like, you know, for whatever reason he's got no risk, he's got no way with words.
他有点无聊又无趣。
He's kind of like boring and lame.
我们爱他。
We love him.
我们希望他重新掌权。
We want him to be in charge again.
他比阿亚图拉强多了。
He's way better than the Ayatollah.
他不是伊斯兰恐惧症患者。
He's not an Islamic Islamophascist.
所以我们喜欢这个人。
So we like the guy.
让他回来。
Get him back in.
让这个毫无风险的人重新掌权。
Get the riskless guy back in charge.
但我不认为他被排挤出去是巧合。
But I don't think it's a coincidence that he's out there.
在过去一年左右的时间里，伊朗曾出现过几次不同的抗议时期，但都没什么太大成效。
There have been a couple of different periods of time over the last year or so where there have been protests in Iran and they haven't really amounted to much.
这次似乎有点不一样。
This time seems to be a little bit different.
这件事发生在伊朗这些事件的同时，绝非巧合，因为它实际上是火上浇油，让阿亚图拉极度恐慌。
And it's no coincidence that this operation happened at the same time that these events are going on in Iran, because really what it does is it pours fuel on the fire and it freaks out the Ayatollah a ton.
我想明确一点，伊朗的地缘政治局势与委内瑞拉的地缘政治局势非常不同，因为阿亚图拉已经86岁了。
I do want to make clear that the geopolitical situation in Iran is very different than the geopolitical situation in Venezuela in the sense that the Ayatollah is 86.
他平时实际上并不做什么具体事务。
He doesn't really do much day to day anyway.
伊斯兰政权是一个根深蒂固的政治体系。
The Islamic regime is an entrenched political apparatus.
虽然委内瑞拉也是如此，但马杜罗比阿亚图拉更像是一个真正的领导者。
And while that's true in Venezuela, Maduro was a little bit more of an actual leader than the Ayatollah is.
阿亚图拉更多只是一个象征性人物。
The Ayatollah is more of a figurehead.
因此，要真正推翻伊朗政权，需要人民真正地站起来反抗。
And so to actually take down the Iranian regime would require like a true rising up of the people.
阿萨德在街头提供帮助，当然无伤大雅，但真正需要的是人民的全面觉醒。
And Assad helping out on the streets, you know, can't hurt, but it would require a true rising up of the people.
如果这种情况发生，如果你看到任何这样的迹象，我认为你应该大量买入黄金和比特币，因为当地缘政治风向转变时，非主权货币往往表现良好。
Now, if that happened, if you see any inkling of that going down, I think you're buying a ton of gold, you're buying a ton of BTC because when the geopolitical winds shift, non sovereign currencies tend to do well.
一般来说，风险会增加，因为如果你推翻了伊朗和委内瑞拉，你之前关于中国的一切说法就都变成了生死存亡的问题，对吧？
Just general risk, I think goes up because if you take down Iran and you take down Venezuela, everything that you said about China becomes existential, right?
这对中国的生存构成了威胁。
It becomes existential for China.
如果他们再也无法获得所需的全部石油，他们会怎么做？
If they no longer have access to all the oil that they need, what do they do?
他们会如何应对？
How do they act?
你把他们逼到墙角，他们就会安静下来吗？
Have you them into a wall and they quiet down?
还是他们会变得好战和愤怒？
Or do they get belligerent and angry?
他们确实拥有全部的通道。
They do have all the access.
我再补充一点。
I'll just add a quick asterisk.
他们仍然能获得所需的全部石油。
They would have access to all the oil they need.
但他们不再能独家拥有这些石油。
They just wouldn't have exclusive access to it.
如果他们做了极其恶劣的事情，比如在台湾发动战争，扰乱了所有人的供应链，那么他们就无法获得所需的石油。
And if they did something horrendous like started a war in Taiwan that messed up everybody's supply chain, then they wouldn't have access to oil they need.
是的，我同意你的观点。
Yes, I agree with you.
是的，这正是为了澄清当他们的石油被理论上的对手控制而非盟友控制时会发生什么，对吧？
Yes, that was to clarify what happens when their oil is controlled by theoretical adversaries as opposed to allies, right?
归根结底，其实就是这么回事。
That's really what it is at the end of the day.
这就像德国，你知道的，当特朗普说‘你们不能过度依赖俄罗斯石油’时，德国人还嘲笑他，因为他们没有意识到，也许俄罗斯有一天真的会变成对手。
It's kind of like the, you know, it's the same way that Germany, you know, Germany was laughing at Trump when he said, Hey, you can't rely too much on Russian oil, because they weren't aware enough about, you know, well, maybe Russia could actually turn into an adversary one day.
他们根本就没相信这一点。
They just didn't even believe it.
而现在，你知道，如果从2018年快进四年，他们突然就陷入了大麻烦。
And now, you know, if you fast, I think that was 2018, you fast forward four years and then suddenly they're in big trouble.
那个冬天爆发了能源危机，因为他们慌乱地试图满足需求，心想：天啊，我们不能再用俄罗斯的石油了。
And there was an energy crisis that winter because they were scrambling to cover their needs because they're like, Oh wait, fuck, we can't use Russian oil anymore.
我认为中国非常清楚，如果石油由西方控制，他们马上就会被切断供应。
And I think China very much so knows that if oil is controlled by the West, that they're getting that spigot turned off immediately.
对吧？
Right?
所以我觉得这是个大问题。
So I think that's a big thing.
现在，对我来说，这表明我书中目前的所有投资都集中于极其流动的资产，因为我认为世界正在急剧变化，你真的不希望持有那些难以迅速脱手的资产。
Now, to me, what this says is that all of my investments in my book right now are concentrated solely around very, very, very liquid assets, because I think that the world is changing extremely quickly and you don't really want to be sitting in assets that you can't offload particularly easily.
比如，我觉得房地产现在很难搞。
Like I actually think real estate's tough right now.
我的意思是，如果你从事风投或私募股权，我觉得这会非常艰难。
I mean, you're in VC or if you're in PE, I think that can be very tough.
我个人认为私募股权将迎来一场血洗。
I think PE is in for bloodbath personally.
我也是。
Me too.
简直就是一场彻底的血洗，因为世界正在迅速变化。
Just, just, just absolute bloodbath because the world, the world is changing very quickly.
而且，流动性市场正让人们赚取巨额利润。
Also the liquid markets are making people a lot of fucking money.
所以人们会想重返这些市场，参与这些市场的交易。
And so people are going to want to come back into these markets and going to want to trade these markets.
我的意思是，新兴市场首次表现得非常好。
I mean, emerging markets for the first time are trading extremely well.
今年它们的实际表现超过了标普500。
They actually outperformed the S and P this year.
所以总的来说，我对明年持非常非常非常看好的态度。
So I think in aggregate, like I'm just very, very, very bullish looking forward to the next year.
我认为这将是一个赚大钱的机会。
I think that this is going to be an opportunity to make a ton of money.
对于那些足够勇敢、愿意稍微冒险的人来说，这是一次代际财富机遇，这是一条推文。
There is a generational wealth opportunity for those brave enough to be a little, that's a tweet.
是的，我刚刚转发了你的推文。
Yeah, I just shared your tweet.
我有两个问题想问你。
I have two questions for you.
如果巨石强森是个伊斯兰波斯人，政权会多久后垮台？
If Dwayne The Rock Johnson were an Islamic Persian guy, how soon would the regime have fallen?
会不会是五年前就垮台了？
Would it have been like five years ago?
第二个问题，你这条推文是什么意思？
Second question, what did you mean by this tweet?
很多人说：给我股票代码。
A lot of people are like, give me the ticker.
你能稍微详细说一下吗？
Can you just elaborate a little bit?
我觉得这里有三件事。
I think well, there's sort of three things here.
第一，这句话有点开玩笑的成分，源于我和朋友的一次对话，他 basically 说：‘我订了去委内瑞拉的机票。’
Number one, this was a little bit tongue in cheek based on a conversation that I had with my friend who basically said, Hey, I'm booking flights to Venezuela.
我要去那里考察一下委内瑞拉的房地产。
I'm going to go down there and scope out specifically Venezuelan real estate.
而且他西班牙语说得很好，来自一个西班牙语国家，所以他跟我说：‘我就想去那儿看看，能不能开拓市场。’
And I'm gonna try to like, he speaks Spanish pretty fluently, from a Hispanic country, and so he's like, Hey, I'm just gonna go down there and try to see if I can open up markets.
我觉得这正是正在发生的事，对吧？
And I think that's kind of what's happening, right?
这里主要有三个机会。
Is there are sort of three main opportunities here.
看看上世纪90年代苏联解体时发生了什么。
Look at, like, study what happened in the 90s when the Soviet Union collapsed.
研究南斯拉夫解体时发生了什么。
Study what happened when Yugoslavia collapsed.
研究任何当前政权开始瓦解时发生的情况，当我们西方国家获得这些市场准入时。
Study what happened when basically any current regime starts to melt away, and we in the West gain access to those markets.
如果你有点胆识，并且发挥你内心19世纪英国探险家的精神，如果伊朗政权垮台，就去学波斯语吧。
If you have a little bit of gumption and you channel your inner nineteenth century British explorer, if the Iranian regime falls, go learn go learn some Farsi.
如果你才22岁左右，也许你真想去伊朗。
If you're if you're like 22 years old, maybe you wanna just go to maybe you wanna go to Iran.
我不是在开玩笑。
Not even kidding.
你知道的。
You know?
也许你真想去委内瑞拉。
If maybe you wanna go to Venezuela.
一旦俄罗斯战争结束，维特科夫家族开始向俄罗斯投资数十亿美元，如果你会任何俄语，这将是你的一大机遇。
The moment, the moment the war in Russia ends and the Witkoff's start investing billions of dollars into Russia, if you speak any Russian, that's going be a great opportunity for you.
这有点半开玩笑，但也带点严肃意味——如果你年轻、没有牵绊，就去那些政治格局正在变化的国家，实地了解情况，寻找机会。
So this was a little bit a tongue in cheek, but also kind of serious statement where there is edge to be had here as if you're young, if you don't have any ties, to go try to figure out, get the lay of the land in countries where the political landscape is shifting.
试着想想，你能不能在俄罗斯开展进出口业务？
Try to figure out like, can you start an import export business into Russia?
你能开始在……开展进出口业务吗？
Can you start an import export business into
我给你讲个趣闻。
I an anecdote for you.
你有没有想过向委内瑞拉人销售什么东西？
Are there things that maybe you want to go sell to the Venezuelans?
可能有很多东西他们没有……别轻易放弃
Potentially, there's a lot out there that they don't Don't put
我的垂直起降伙伴们。
my VTOL buddies.
实际上想要什么。
What actually want.
在VTOL莫斯科办公室工作、领取微薄基本工资和极少奖金的人，以及一些我们称之为‘斯坦’的周边人员。
People who are earning very modest base salaries and de minimis bonuses working in the Moscow office at VTOL, as well as some of the peripheral, we call them the stans.
乌克兰战争爆发后，这些群体中的一些年轻人，凭借在各个‘独联体’（前苏联国家）业务中的关系，
A couple of the young guys from those groups after the Ukraine war kicked off with the relationships, like the number two guy on the origination book in various, we call it FSU, the former Soviet Union.
他们离开后成立了自己的独立经纪公司，主要是将俄罗斯石油通过西方炼油系统进行洗白。
They left to go form their own independent bucket shop brokerages to basically get Russian oil laundered in the Western Hemisphere refining system.
这些人都在二十七八岁到三十岁出头。
These guys are in their late twenties, early thirties.
他们现在都是亿万富翁。
They're now billionaires.
去年夏天我在法国时，曾在圣让卡佩弗拉特他的庄园里和其中一人待过。
I hung out with one of them at his compound in Saint Jean Cap Ferrat when I was in France that summer last year.
荒谬至极。
Ridiculous.
就像你说的，正在发生的事情。
Like are, what you're saying is happening.
告诉我他们具体做了什么。
Tell me what exactly they did.
他们是怎么从FSB的最低工资员工变成亿万富翁的？
Like what, how did they go from being minimum wage workers at the FSB to becoming billionaires?
他们并不是FSB的最低工资员工。
They weren't minimum wage workers at the FSB.
他们是国际石油公司里从事企业职能、企业职员级别的收入群体。
They were like corporate function, corporate functionary level income earners at an international oil company.
他们做了维托尔法律部门不会批准的事情。
They did things that Vitol's legal department wouldn't have approved.
他们灵活如初创公司，拥有从供需两端建立的关系——如果你想要进入一个发生巨大变化的经济体，无论是封闭还是开放，你都需要我们在商品界称为‘腋下’的资源。
They were nimble and start up y and they had the relationships both on the supply Basically what you need if you want to go into an economy that's just changed massively, either closed off or opened up, is you need to have what we in the commodities world called the armpits.
你需要同时拥有这两个‘腋下’，对吧？
Need to have you have two both armpits, right?
你需要同时掌握供应端和需求端。
You need to have both the supply side and some demand kind of under your arms captured.
你需要掌控交易的双方。
You need to have both sides of the trade.
因此，拥有廉价的供应是有帮助的。
So it helps to have cheap supply.
正如你之前在播客中提到的加密货币交易，入场价格至关重要。
To your point earlier in the podcast about crypto trading, entry price is everything.
在这种情况下，这些人从俄罗斯获得了廉价的原油，因为乌拉尔原油的价格不是通常的布伦特原油加一美元，而是布伦特原油减38美元，他们就掌握了这个优势。
So in this case, these guys were getting cheap supply from Russia because Urals, Russian oil, was trading at instead of its normal price of Brent plus a dollar, it was Brent minus $38 So they had that.
对吧？
Right?
然后他们可能通过混合将其转化为其他类型的原油。
And then they could probably turn it into some other kind of oil by mixing it.
他们大概认识某个地方有闲置储油罐的人。
They probably knew somebody with a storage tank somewhere random.
你不需要认识下游的首席官员，我。
And then you don't need to know the chief downstream, I.
E。
E.
你不需要认识埃克森美孚的炼油主管就能卖出这些石油。
Refining officer of ExxonMobil to sell that oil.
你只需要认识一个认识他的人，这种人有一千个之多。
You just need to know somebody who knows him, which is like a thousand people.
所以，你把最后几个百分点的利润留给你的承购方，这个人通过卖给埃克森、BP、壳牌或任何其他公司，就能轻松赚取几个百分点的风险收益。
So you leave the last few percentage points of profit to your off take valve and that guy captures a few riskless points selling it to Exxon or BP or Shell or whoever.
所以，本质上你需要廉价的供应、合理的入场价格，而你的离场价格只需是你拥有一个大家想要的商品。
So basically you need the cheap supply, you need the entry price, and then your exit price can just be you have a commodity that people want.
因此，离场价格就是，你只需要获得该商品的流动性渠道。
So then the exit price is like, you just need access to liquidity for that.
反过来，从一个普通的流动性池中买入，再以一个愚蠢的价格卖给不知情的买家，要困难得多。
It's much harder to go the opposite way to buy from a general pool of liquidity and then sell at some dumb price to an unknowing buyer.
这是一个更难维持的商业模式，因为最终买家会醒悟，不再支付溢价。
That's a much less defensible business model because eventually the buyer wises up and stops overpaying.
但廉价的供应，你是在为他们解决问题。
But the cheap supply, you're solving a problem for them.
对吧？
Right?
引用著名的马克·里奇的话，我会说他是有史以来最伟大的交易员，现代石油交易之父。
To quote the famous Mark Rich, I would say he's the best trader of all time, the father of modern oil trading.
他说：法律是唯一的客观标准，对吧？
He said, The law is the only objective standard, right?
所以，如果这些人在摩纳哥管辖地、巴基斯坦或他们设立业务的任何地方，只要他们没有违法，他们就在做维托尔公司和摩根大通无法做到的事情。
So if these guys were in their Monegasque jurisdiction or Pakistan or wherever the hell they set up shop, if they weren't breaking the law, they were doing something that Vitol couldn't do and that JPMorgan couldn't do.
而且，市场确实需要这种做法。
And fine, the market needed that.
正确。
Correct.
其实，我发那条推文时想到的是《石油之王》这本书。
You know, was actually thinking of the book, The King of Oil, when I wrote that tweet.
没错。
Yep.
我想，如果你愿意大胆一点、富有创业精神，就能发现一些这样的机会。
I was thinking, you know, if you're willing to be a little bit daring and entrepreneurial, you can find some of these opportunities.
而且，当然，如果你已经身处这个体系之中，会容易很多，但你并不一定非得如此才能
And you know, it's a lot easier obviously if you're already embedded in the system, but you don't necessarily have to be in order to
在你行动之前，最好先稍微融入其中。
figure It to be a little bit embedded before It you go
融入其中会有帮助。
helps to be embedded.
因为你需要
Because you need
供应。
the supply.
你需要供应。
You need the supply.
但这就是你开始的地方，对吧？
But that's where you start, right?
就像我试图解释的那样，如果你现在一无所有，就想想怎么融入进去。
Like that's what I'm trying to explain is that if you're sitting here with nothing right now, figure out how to get embedded.
给乔纳打个电话。
Call up Jonah.
我有一些想法。
Have a few ideas.
我现在正做一些与此相关的副业。
I've got some side hustles going right now along those lines.
我认为地缘政治格局将被彻底改写。
I think the geopolitical map is gonna get re rewritten drastically.
这对加密货币很重要。
It matters for crypto.
这对任何商品都很重要。
It matters for any commodity.
我认为，伊朗的局势发展基本上意味着伊朗是下一个。
I think, basically, the way Iran falls I think Iran's next.
我不完全明白为什么他们现在会爆发抗议。
I don't fully understand why they're having protests now.
我非常想听听你的看法，但我觉得这本质上是……
I I'd be eager to get your take, but I think what it basically
嗯，我的观点非常简单。
Well, I mean, the the the take the take is very simple.
这现在是中央情报局和摩萨德协同进行的一项行动。
It's a coordinated it's a coordinated effort right now to the CIA and Mossad to get this thing done.
没错。
Yep.
现在正是合适的时机。
And it's it's it's it's the right time.
我们一直在推动，我说的我们。
And we've been pushing the I say we.
他们已经为此推动了很久。
They have been pushing this for a long time.
我们美国人，是的，
We Americans, yeah,
我们美国人一直在推动这件事。
hear We Americans have been pushing it.
我认为它之所以重要的原因是——但
I think the reason why it matters- But
关键是时机。
it's the timing.
我确实想说，这当然不是100%肯定会发生，但有很多迹象表明，目前可能正在进行一些行动，这些行动在过去十到十五年里从未发生过，这些行动可能导致政权更迭。
And I do want to, yeah, I do want to say it's definitely not a 100% that it's going to happen, but there are a lot of signs that there are operations potentially going on right now that be that have not happened in the last ten to fifteen years, and that would lead to a regime change.
所以，好吧。
So, okay.
所以，这之所以重要，是因为它关系到石油和比特币。
So basically why this one matters for oil and Bitcoin.
伊朗不像委内瑞拉。
Like Iran is not like Venezuela.
伊朗更像沙特阿拉伯。
Iran's more like Saudi Arabia.
你往地上插根牙签，油就冒出来了。
You stick a toothpick in the ground, the oil comes out.
如果伊朗成为西方盟友，我估计很快就能每天多产出一百万到两百万桶石油。
So you could bring on, I would guess, another million or 2,000,000 barrels a day pretty quickly if it became a western aligned nation.
这确实会对石油市场构成利空。
That would indeed be bearish oil.
另一点是，伊朗的石油将按市场价格出售，而不是以折扣价卖给中国。
The other thing is that it would align with market prices instead of getting sold to China at discounted prices.
还有就是伊朗国家油轮公司，它旗下有一支庞大的油轮舰队，满载着石油漂在海上，根本卖不出去。
Another thing is the NITC, which is the National Iranian Tanker Corporation, has basically an armada of tankers floating full of oil at sea that can't be sold at all.
它们都装满了。
They're all full.
所有这些都会被倾销到市场上。
That would all just get dumped on the market.
如果你来一次类似马杜罗风格的三角洲部队突袭，你知道的，查克·诺里斯，老兄。
That that you know, if if you get if if a Maduro style Delta Force raid, again, so Chuck Norris, man.
我喜欢这种事。
I love that shit.
如果真发生了，一旦释放，油价会立刻下跌。
If that were to happen, yes, oil goes down the moment that it's released.
另一件事是，即使阿亚图拉不亲自处理日常事务，他仍然是唯一能维系这个国家团结的受尊敬的象征人物。
The other thing is the Ayatollah, even if he's not day to day, he is the only respectable figurehead who can keep that country together.
他的儿子和其他那些随机冒出来的潜在第三任阿亚图拉接班人都不够格。
His son and the other random like runner ups for Ayatollah number three are not going to cut it.
他们没有威望。
They don't have the respect.
派系太多了。
There are too many factions.
只有霍梅尼能维持局面。
Only Khomeini can keep the thing together.
所以即使他什么也不做，只要他存在于这个国家，如果他逃往莫斯科，这个国家就会变成——我甚至不会说它是西方的附庸国。
So even if he's not doing anything, his existence in the country, if he flees to Moscow, the country just becomes a, I wouldn't even say a client state of the West.
会说像
Would say like
好的。
Okay.
所以我觉得需要更多条件。
So I think it would take a lot more.
显然需要让礼萨掌权。
Would take the, obviously it would take the installation of Reza in charge.
需要彻底 dismantling 整个体系。
It would take the dismantling of the entire apparatus.
想想看。
Mean, think about it.
这个政府中有数以万计的人，他们显然有继任计划，而且还有一位不在霍梅尼之下的总统在实际管理国家。
There are tens of thousands of people in this government and they clearly have a succession plan and they also have a president outside of the Ayatollah that does run the country.
但总的来说，我认为我们都同意这样一个观点：有很多非常有趣的事情可以做。
But all in, I think we agree on the statement that there are a lot of really interesting things that you can do.
这里还有一个我想讨论的次要观点，那就是自新冠疫情以来，我第一次感受到，政府以及世界的发展方向，正被这些无法抗拒的宏观趋势所主导，这让我个人觉得，进行大规模投资变得更加安全。
There's also a secondary point here that I wanted to talk about, which is that sort of for the first time, like for the first time since COVID, I've felt that the government the way that the world is heading, it's comprised of these mega trends that you can't really fight, which make it a lot safer to make big bets, in my personal opinion.
例如，到2035年，所有北约国家都将一致表示：我们必须将国防支出提高到GDP的5%。
So for example, you have NATO countries by the end of two thousand thirty five all saying together, We must hit 5% of GDP when it comes to defense spending.
美国目前是3.4%。
The US is at 3.4.
其他所有欧洲国家都低于这个水平。
Every other European country is below that.
因此，你可以确信，国防支出必将增加。
And so you just know for a fact that there's going to be increased defense spending.
而且我不确定这些因素是否已经反映在价格中，也没有人注意到美国涌现出大量国防初创企业。
And I don't necessarily think this has worked its way into prices yet, nor, has it been noted that there are a lot of defense upstarts in The United States.
所以你或许应该开始投资国防科技公司。
So maybe you want to start investing in defense tech companies.
我的意思是，帕尔默·拉基创立这家名为埃雷博的银行（据推测是一家加密货币银行）的全部原因。
I mean, the whole reason that Palmer Lucky started this bank called Erebor, which presumably is a crypto bank.
其中很大一部分是因为他现在正在向国防科技初创企业提供贷款。
A large part of it is because he's now lending to defense tech startups.
他之所以想通过Airborne做这件事，是因为他看到未来五到十年内，政府将向国防科技投入大量资金，你打算抓住这个机会吗？
That's what he wants to do with Airborne because he sees the opportunity of there is a lot of money that's going to come from the government into defense tech over the next five to ten years, are you going to take advantage of that?
你该如何确保自己在这几大趋势中占据有利位置，以实现最大收益？这些趋势包括人工智能、货币贬值，还有日益碎片化的国际格局——我讨厌伊恩·布雷默，但他有一点说对了：我们正处在一个G0世界，或者如果你非要把美国放在顶端，也可以称之为G1。
Like how you going to make sure that you're positioned to make as much money as possible based off of these megatrends, based off the megatrends of AI, based off the megatrends of debasement of our currencies, based off of the fractured I hate Ian Bremmer, but he has one thing that he's right about, and it's that we are in a G Zero world, or I guess maybe G One if you want to put The United States on top.
每个国家都只顾自身利益，这必然会导致国防支出增加，我们将更加专注于此。
It's every country out for the interests of itself, and that by necessity is going to We're going to have increased defense spending, we're going to have increased We're going to be really focused here.
因此，显然我认为，我们现在正处在一个充满诸多难以逆转且不可阻挡的大趋势的世界中，你可以紧紧抓住这些趋势，利用它们来获利。
So obviously, I think that right now we're in a world where there are all these sort of intractable and unbeatable megatrends, and that you can really latch onto them and take advantage of them and make yourself money.
事实上，地球上绝大多数人并不会这么做。
The reality is that the vast majority of people on this planet are not going to do that.
他们既不会注意到这些趋势，也不会押注于这些趋势——我可以肯定地告诉你，他们不会这么做。所以，如果你能成为那个注意到并押注这些趋势的人，这确实是自新冠疫情以来我第一次看到如此清晰的局面。
They're not to A, notice the trends, B, they're hell, hell, I can tell you that they're not going to bet on the trends, and so if you can be somebody that notices and bets on these trends, I mean, is really the first time since COVID that I've seen where it's clear, right?
在新冠疫情时，我们会印钱。
In COVID it was, we're going to print money.
我们会印尽可能多的钱，不惜一切代价摆脱困境。
We're going print as much fucking money as it possibly takes us to get out of this, to get out of this.
这真的，我甚至都不想称之为宏观趋势。
And that's really, that was like, I don't even want to call it a megatrend.
那是我们明确知道政府会采取的行动。
That was an action that we knew that the government was going take.
我强烈建议每个人都去读一读《第四次转折》，因为这本书很好地描绘了我们当前所处的这段时期。
Now, I highly encourage everybody to pick up the book Fourth Turning because I think it outlines the period of time that we're going through very well.
我们正进入一个地缘政治动荡的时期，这些变化是你无法逃避的。
We're entering into a period of geopolitical upheaval where these, you can't really escape what's going to happen.
所以你只需要确保自己站在正确的一边。
And so you just have to make sure that you're on the right side.
这就是我的看法。
That's my take.
所以我发布了这个，而且我觉得这可能是个不错的结束点。
That's why I put out that to And I feel like this is actually probably a good place to end it.
是的，确实是个很好的结束点。
Yeah, very good place to end it.
所以保持警惕，赚点钱，敬请期待。
So keep your eyes open, make some money and stay tuned.
下周再来，我们会为你带来更多想法。
Come in next week and we'll have some more ideas for you.
太棒了，阿维。
Love it, Avi.
和你聊天总是很愉快。
Great talking with you as always.
持有比特币，保持创意并保持流动性。
Own Bitcoin, be creative and stay liquid.
保持流动性。
Stay liquid.
回头再聊，乔诺。
Talk to you later, Jono.
在1000x播客中提到的任何内容均不构成购买或出售任何投资或产品的建议。
Nothing said on the 1000x podcast is a recommendation to buy or sell any investments or products.
本播客仅用于信息目的，节目中任何人的观点均为其个人意见，而非财务建议，也不一定代表Blockworks的观点。
This podcast is for informational purposes only, and the views expressed by anyone on the show are solely their opinions, not financial advice or necessarily the views of Blockworks.
我们的主持人、嘉宾以及Blockworks团队可能持有节目中讨论的公司或项目的头寸。
Our hosts, guests, the Blockworks team may hold positions in the company's funds or projects discussed.
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