气候科学家如何做出预测？

是不是快考试了？

Got an exam coming up?

练习听力和阅读，然后用我们网站上的考试风格题目来测试自己。

Practice your listening and reading and test yourself with exam style questions on our website.

试试阅读室，那里有分级英语的杂志风格文章，或者去听力室听音频新闻故事。

Try the Reading Room for magazine style articles in graded English or head to the Listening Room for audio news stories.

还有免费的练习册、词汇表和定义，都在bbclearningenglish.com上。

There's also free worksheets, vocabulary lists, and definitions all available at bbclearningenglish.com.

这里是BBC Learning English的六分钟英语。

Six Minute English from bbclearningenglish.com.

你好。

Hello.

这里是BBC Learning English的六分钟英语。

This is six Minute English from BBC Learning English.

我是Phil。

I'm Phil.

我是皮帕。

And I'm Pippa.

今年夏天正成为有史以来最热的夏天之一，欧洲各地都出现了热浪。

This summer is becoming one of the hottest ever, with heat waves across Europe.

在英国，六月份的最高气温纪录被刷新，达到了令人难耐的37.7摄氏度。

Here in The UK, a new record for the highest June temperature was set at a sweltering 37.7 degrees Celsius.

看来气温一年比一年高。

It seems that year after year, temperatures are going up.

2015年的COP21峰会同意将全球变暖限制在1.5摄氏度以内，但自那以后的研究显示气温已经超过了这个限度，导致对地球生命支持系统造成灾难性破坏的警告。

In 2015, the COP21 summit agreed to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, but since then research shows temperatures exceeding that, leading to warnings of catastrophic damage to Earth's life support systems.

在本期节目中，我们将讨论地球可能会变得多热，并学习一些有用的新词汇。

In this episode, we'll be discussing how hot the planet could get using some useful new vocabulary.

记住，你可以在我们的网站bbclearningenglish.com上找到免费的文本，跟着一起读。

And remember, you'll find a free transcript to read along with on our website bbclearningenglish.com.

但首先，菲尔，我有一个问题要问你。

But first, I have a question for you, Phil.

科学家通过地球的能量失衡来监测气候变化。

Scientists monitor climate change using the Earth's energy imbalance.

也就是进入地球大气层的太阳能与返回太空的辐射之间的差异。

The difference between the solar energy entering the Earth's atmosphere and the radiation going back out into space.

但科学家用什么单位来衡量这个呢？

But which unit do scientists use for this?

是华氏度、瓦特每平方米，还是焦耳？

Is it a) Fahrenheit b) watts per square metre or c) joules.

哦，我知道焦耳和能量有关，所以我选C。

Oh, know joules is something to do with energy, so I'm going to go with c.

好的，我们会在节目结束时揭晓答案，不过细心的听众可能会更早听到答案。

Well, we'll find out the answer at the end of the programme, although careful listeners might hear the answer sooner.

哦。

Oh.

是的，真令人兴奋。

Yes, exciting.

那么，科学家最初是怎么计算气候变化带来的影响的呢？

So how do scientists calculate the effects of climate change in the first place?

答案是用模型。

The answer is with models.

大量的物理和化学数据被输入超级计算机，然后它们就能描绘出地球未来的各种可能性。

Huge amounts of physical and chemical data are fed into supercomputers, which then paint pictures of possible futures on Earth.

不过，正如NASA气候科学家凯特·马维尔向BBC世界服务节目《气候问题》栏目解释的那样，没有任何事情是确定的。

But as NASA climate scientist Kate Marvell explained to BBC World Service program, the climate question, nothing is certain.

气候模型不做预测，而是做推演。

Climate models don't make predictions, they make projections.

预测是说事情一定会这样发生。

Predictions are saying this is what will happen.

而推演是有条件的。

And a projection is conditional.

推演的意思是，如果我们这样做，那么结果就会是这样。

A projection is if we do this, then this will happen.

气候模型并不做预测。

Climate models don't make predictions.

它们只是对可能发生的情况做出评估。

Those are statements about what's likely to happen.

相反，它们会对不同的未来情景进行推演，而这些推演取决于许多因素。

Instead, they make projections about different possible futures, and these depend on many things.

换句话说，气候模型是有条件的，也就是说它们依赖于其他变量。

In other words, climate models are conditional, meaning that they depend on other factors.

当然，气候变化的主要因素是人类活动，尤其是温室气体的排放。

The main factor in climate change, of course, is human activity, especially greenhouse gas emissions.

影响气候模型的另一个因素是云。

Another influence on climate models is clouds.

我们通常把炎热的夏天和万里无云的蓝天联系在一起，但实际上，正如凯特·马维尔向BBC世界服务频道解释的那样，云在气候中扮演着重要角色。

We usually associate hot summers with cloudless blue skies, But in fact, clouds play a big part in the climate as Kate Marvel explained to the BBC World Service.

所以关于云的一点是，它们具有双重效应。

So the thing about clouds is that they have this dual effect.

它们既能通过遮挡阳光来给地球降温，又因为自身的温室效应而使地球变暖。

They both cool the planet by blocking sunlight and they warm the planet because they have their own greenhouse effect.

目前，科学家用来衡量地球能量失衡程度的单位是瓦特每平方米，就像灯泡的功率单位一样。

Right now, the unit that scientists use to measure the energy imbalance of the planet, how much it's out of whack, is watts like in a light bulb per square meter.

凯特一开始说“关于云的事情”，她用了“the thing about”这个表达来引出某事物最重要的细节。

Kate starts by saying, the thing about clouds is she uses the expression the thing about to introduce the most important detail about something.

在这里，这个细节就是云既能通过遮挡阳光给地球降温，又能通过捕获热量使地球变暖。

Here, that detail is that clouds both cool the planet by blocking sunlight, but also warm it by trapping heat.

所以气候模型监测云层，是为了准确测量地球失衡的程度。

So climate models monitor clouds to accurately measure how much the earth is out of whack.

如果某事物“out of whack”，意思就是它失去了平衡，不能正常运作。

If something is out of whack, it's out of balance and not working properly.

皮帕，气候模型听起来非常复杂。

Climate models sound very complicated to me, Pippa.

首先，云层一直在移动和变化，你怎么可能监测它们呢？

For one thing, how can you monitor clouds which are constantly moving and changing?

对，而且超级计算机需要从世界各地获取多少信息才能做出准确的预测呢？

Yeah, and how much information from around the world would the supercomputers need to make accurate projections?

这是BBC主持人格里尔·杰克逊在BBC国际频道的节目《气候问题》中向凯特·马维尔提出的一个担忧。

It's a concern that BBC presenter, Greer Jackson, raised with Kate Marvel for BBC World's service programme, The Climate Question.

当然，我们需要知道我们正在走向的轨迹，以便适应。

Surely we need to know the trajectory we're heading in in order to adapt.

哦，绝对需要。

Oh, absolutely.

你知道，我非常支持科学。

You know, I am I am very pro science.

我非常支持做科学研究，因为不幸的是，气候变化问题没有其他选择。

I am very pro doing science because no climate change is unfortunately not on the table.

凯特非常支持科学。

Kate is very pro science.

如果你支持某事物，意思就是你赞成它。

If you're pro something, it means you're in favour of it.

模型很复杂，但它们是必要的，因为不幸的是，完全没有气候变化是不可能的。

Models are complex, but they're necessary because unfortunately, no climate change at all is not on the table.

这是一个习语，意思是这不是一个选项。

And that's an idiom meaning it's not an option.

如果这一切听起来有点令人沮丧，凯特的最后一条信息则更有希望。

If all this sounds a bit depressing, Kate's final message is more hopeful.

气候模型毫无疑问地证明了全球变暖的问题是由人类造成的。

Climate models prove beyond doubt that the problem of global warming is created by humans.

所以我们毫无疑问地知道，解决方案也掌握在我们自己手中。

So we know beyond doubt that the solution is also in our hands.

皮帕，细心的听众可能已经知道了，但请继续，揭晓你那个问题的正确答案吧。

Now Pippa, careful listeners might already know, but go ahead and reveal the correct answer to your question.

是的，我问过你，科学家用什么单位来测量地球的能量失衡，答案是瓦特每平方米，菲尔，我之前不知道这个。

Yes, I asked you which unit do scientists use to measure the Earth's energy imbalance, and the answer was watts per square metre, and I didn't know that Phil.

好了，是时候回顾一下本期节目中听到的词汇了。

Right, it's time to recap the vocabulary we heard during this programme.

预测就是你对未来会发生什么的判断。

A prediction is a statement about what you think will happen in the future.

形容词 conditional 的意思是取决于其他因素。

The adjective conditional means depending on other factors.

你可以用非正式表达 the thing about 来引出某事最重要的特点或细节。

You can use the informal expression the thing about to introduce the most important feature or detail of something.

短语 out of whack 意思是失去平衡，运转不正常。

The phrase out of whack means out of balance and not working properly.

如果你支持某件事，意思就是你是赞成它的。

If you're pro something, you're in favour of it.

如果某件事不在考虑范围内，那就意味着它不是一个可行的选择。

And if something is not on the table, it's not an option.

这对我们来说是不可行的。

It's not available to us.

本期六分钟英语就到这里。

That's the end of this episode of six Minute English.

在我们的网站上找到一份练习册和测验，来检验你学到的内容。

Find a worksheet and quiz on our website to test what you've learned.

我们下周会带着新一期节目回来，所以请确保不要错过。

We'll be back next week with another episode, so make sure you don't miss it.

现在再见。

Bye for now.

再见。

Bye.

六分钟英语。

Six Minute English.

来自bbclearningenglish.com。

From bbclearningenglish.com.