MLB球队老板兼慈善家大卫·鲁宾斯坦 | 梅杰·加勒特的《政要访谈》

你好，六十分钟播客的听众们。我是梅杰·加勒特，CBS新闻首席华盛顿记者，也是《与梅杰·加勒特一起打包》节目的主持人，该节目每周工作日晚在我们的流媒体新闻网络CBS新闻24/7播出。今天，我很高兴在六十分钟播客频道分享一期《打包》节目的特别版，内容是我对商人兼慈善家大卫·鲁宾斯坦的深度访谈。上周末，我与鲁宾斯坦——私募股权基金凯雷集团的联合创始人及巴尔的摩金莺队的主要所有者——进行了一场广泛对话。想收听更多此类访谈，请关注并收听《与梅杰·加勒特一起打包》，在您获取播客的任何平台均可收听。

Hello, sixty minutes podcast listeners. It's Major Garrett, CBS News chief Washington correspondent and host of the takeout with Major Garrett, which airs weeknights on our streaming news network, CBS News twenty four seven. Today, I am thrilled to share a special presentation of the takeout here on the sixty minutes podcast feed, featuring my extended interview with businessman and philanthropist David Rubenstein. Last weekend, I sat down with Rubenstein, cofounder of the private equity fund, The Carlyle Group, and principal owner of the Baltimore Orioles for a wide ranging conversation. To hear more interviews like this, follow and listen to the takeout with major Garrett wherever you get your podcasts.

大卫，见到你总是很愉快。我想和你谈谈美国的体育以及美国的凝聚力，因为在我看来，体育是如今少数几个无论政治立场如何我们都能和睦相处的地方之一。

David, it's always great to see you. I wanna talk to you about sports in America and cohesion in America because it strikes me that sports is one of the few places anymore where we can all get along regardless of our political attitudes.

嗯，我们都可以认同体育可能比以往任何时候都更受欢迎——人们观看更多体育赛事、直播更多体育内容、参加更多体育赛事、对体育赛事的投注也前所未有地增多。这是少数几件大家都能达成共识的事情之一，即体育是件好事。当然，人们有不同的球队 rivalry 等等，但我一直惊讶于球队价值的上升、电视转播权价值的增长，我们从未见过如此盛况。

Well, can all agree that sports is really probably more popular than they've ever been in terms of people watch more sports, live stream more sports, attend more sports events, bet on more sports events than ever before. And it's one of the few things that people all agree on, that sports is a good thing. Now, people have different team rivals and so forth, but I've been amazed at how the value of teams have gone up, the value of TV rights have gone up, and we've never seen anything quite like this.

你并不是过度感性的人，我也不是。我们不想变得模糊不清，假装认为体育可以解决美国的所有问题。但在我看来，它确实是一个汇聚点，可能在恢复公民联系感方面具有一定价值。

Now, you are not overly sentimental. I am not overly sentimental. And we don't want to get gauzy and pretend that we can think of sports as the way to solve all of America's problems. But it does seem to me to be a convening place that could have some value in restoring a sense of civic connectedness.

毫无疑问，人们觉得如果你与体育相连，你就与美国人民相连。所以，政客们经常做什么？他们去参加体育赛事。你会看到美国总统们——其中许多人——去看橄榄球比赛，今天他们可能去看一场网球赛。我认为总统和高级政府官员觉得，如果你与体育赛事和体育团队建立联系，这不会损害你的受欢迎程度。

There's no doubt that people feel if you're connected to sports, you're connected to the American people. So, what do politicians often do? They go to sporting events. You'll see presidents of The United States, many of them, go to football games, they'll go to a tennis match today, perhaps. And I think presidents and senior government officials feel if you get connected to a sports event and a sports team, it doesn't hurt your popularity.

因此政客们希望受欢迎。参加体育赛事能让你与美国人民联系起来。

And so politicians want to be popular. Going to a sporting event connects you with the American people.

我最近看到一些民意调查数据表明，关注体育的人更积极参与公民事务。他们更参与政治活动。他们投票更频繁。他们只是更连接到美国及其实验的核心本质。

And I've come across some recent polling data that indicates that people who follow sports are more civically engaged. They're more politically engaged. They vote more often. They're just more connected to the fundamentals of what America and its experiment is all about.

嗯，作为一支球队的所有者，也许我们应该要求更多人参加体育赛事，因为这会使他们成为更好的公民。也许这是个好主意。我以前没想过这一点，但这主意不错。我会着手推进这件事。

Well, as an owner of a team, maybe we should require more people to attend sporting events because it would make them a better citizen. Maybe that's a good idea. I hadn't thought of that before, but that's a good idea. I'm going work on that.

好的。很好。你对巴尔的摩金莺队每晚的成功与艰辛有多情绪投入？你的情绪反应让你自己感到惊讶吗？

Okay. Good. How emotionally involved do you get in to the night to night successes and travails of the Baltimore Orioles? And has that been a surprise to you, your emotional reaction?

是的，我可能不是世界上最情绪化的人，人们可能会这么说。所以在我和一些合作伙伴买下金莺队之前，我会看比赛数据统计，然后说，好吧，这支球队输了，那支赢了，某人表现得不错。现在，我痴迷地关注我们的表现。当我们输球时我确实会沮丧，赢球时我真的很开心。我想也许这让我活得更久，因为我们赢球时我更快乐。

Yeah, I'm not the most emotional person in the world, people would probably say. And so I didn't before I bought the Orioles with some partners, I would watch this box scores and say, Okay, this team lost, this team won, the person did pretty well. Now, I watch it obsessively to see how we're doing. And I do get upset when we're losing, when I really am happy when we win. I guess maybe it makes me live longer because I'm happier when we win.

而幸福是人生中难以捉摸的东西。但我非常关注团队的表现等等。就在我们谈话的此刻，我们昨晚刚刚取得了一场历史性的胜利——金莺队在只剩一个出局数时即将输掉一场无安打比赛。我们的一位年轻球员在第九局两人出局时击出本垒打，随后我们又拿下三分，以再见安打获胜。这在棒球史上是从未发生过的。

And happiness is a elusive thing in life. But I am very engaged with the team in terms of how they perform and so forth. As we talk now, we just came off an historic win last night where the Orioles were, with one out to go, they were gonna lose a no hitter. One of our young players hit a home run with two outs in the ninth, and then we scored three more runs and a walk off win. And in the history of baseball, they never happened before.

我们破坏了对方的无安打比赛，然后以再见安打逆转获胜。所以情绪真的很高涨，我到现在还没从那种兴奋中恢复过来。真是太棒了。

We were foiled a no hitter and then came back to win in a walk off win. So it's really high, and I'm still recovering from the excitement of it. It was great.

这就像一剂灵丹妙药，不是吗？这类事情？

It is an elixir, isn't it? Things like that?

当你年纪渐长，会对生活变得更加厌倦，你会想：有什么能让我感觉更好又不会损害健康？酒精能让一些人快乐，但不会让我快乐。我不喝酒。毒品能让一些人快乐，但我不吸毒。那么，我能做什么既让自己开心又不会惹上麻烦呢？

When you get older, you get more jaded about life, and you kind of say, what is it that can make me feel better that isn't going to make me unhealthy? Alcohol makes some people happy, but it doesn't make me happy. I don't drink. Drugs can make some people happy, but I don't take drugs. So, what can I do that's going to make me happy and not get me in trouble?

观看体育赛事并期待他们获胜是最好的选择之一。所以随着年纪增长——我刚满76岁——我的理论是：当你55岁时，你已经活过的岁月比未来要活的更多，开始担心我所说的长寿问题，想要活得更久。虽然有很多方法可以延长寿命，但其中之一就是拥有真正在乎的事物。当你关心一支运动队而它表现出色时，你可能会活得更久。所以我要让越来越多人说：来看体育赛事吧，来看金莺队的比赛吧，如果我们打得好，你说不定能活得更久。

And watching a sporting event hoping they're going to win is one of the best things to do. So, as you get older and I am now I just turned 76 when you turn 55, it's my theory that you've lived more than you're going to live, and you begin to worry about what I call longevity, and you want to live longer. And so there are many ways you can live longer, but one of the things is to have something that you really care about. And when you care about a sports team and it does well, you might live longer. So I'm going get more and more people to kind of say, come to sporting events, come to the Orioles events, and maybe you'll live longer if we do well.

俗话说，信仰是免费的。没错。所以如果你要信仰某件事，体育赛事的积极面是个不错的起点。

And as the saying goes, faith is free. Correct. So if you're going to be faithful in something and the upside of a sporting event, it's not a bad place to start.

体育赛事很有趣。人们最喜欢哪种活动？这些年来我一直在思考：当你参加婚礼时，很多人会说这段婚姻维持不下去。你经常听到这种话。这段婚姻是涂黄油

Sporting events, it's interesting. What kind of events do people enjoy the most? I have thought over the years, when you go to a wedding, a lot of people are saying this marriage isn't going make it. You hear that all the time. This marriage is The buttering

在背后

in the back

你知道，没人喜欢参加葬礼。但人们热爱毕业典礼，因为在毕业典礼上每个人都觉得这很棒，人们在毕业等等。但人们也热爱体育赛事。当你去观看体育比赛时，你希望自己的队伍获胜，期待看到精彩的体育表现。当这一切发生时，你会为之兴奋。所以我总是很惊讶有那么多人来对我说：鲁宾斯坦先生

You cues, know, nobody's happy going to funerals, But people love commencements, because everybody is thinking at a commencement, this is great, people are graduating, and so forth. But people love sporting events, too. When you go to a sporting event, you're you're hoping your team is going to win, and you're going see some great athletic performances. And when you do, you get excited about it. And so I'm amazed at how many people come to me and say, Mr.

谢谢您买下这支球队，但您要知道我持有季票已经四十五年了。四十五年。我的意思是难以置信，但确实如此。还有人出现在业主包厢——他们持有季票已经五十年了。

Rubenstein, thank you for buying the team, but you should know I've been a season ticket holder for forty five years. Forty five years. I mean, I I can't believe it, but they are. And some people have shown up in the owner's box. They've owned, had season tickets for fifty years.

所以有些人痴迷于体育，他们看起来很快乐。因此我正在努力，你知道，创造更多快乐。幸福无疑是人生中最难以捉摸的东西。托马斯·杰斐逊在《独立宣言》中谈到过幸福，但从未真正定义什么是幸福。而且幸福因人而异，不同的人对什么能让他们快乐有不同的看法。

So some people are obsessed with sports, and they seem to be happy. And so I'm trying to, you know, produce more happiness. Happiness is the most elusive thing in life, for sure. Thomas Jefferson talked about it in the Declaration of Independence, but never actually defined what happiness is. And happiness varies from people to people about what makes them happy.

但显然，体育赛事能让人快乐，尤其是当他们支持的队伍表现出色时。

But clearly, sporting events make people happy, particularly when their team does well.

作为这支棒球队的老板，你是否经历过或曾经经历过价格冲击？

Did you experience, or have you experienced, sticker shock as an owner of this ball club?

嗯，当金莺队1954年来到巴尔的摩时，收购价格是220万美元，220万美元，他们当时很难筹集到这笔钱。后来以大约1200万美元的价格卖给了爱德华·贝内特·威廉姆斯。他的遗产以大约7500万美元的价格出售。我的前任老板大约在三十年前支付了1.55亿美元，所以三十年前的1.55亿美元变成了17亿美元。但17亿美元，有些人对我说，你捡了个便宜。而一些老板说，你付得不够多。你应该付更高的价格，因为我们希望球队价值更高。但是，你知道，看看现在体育界发生了什么。

Well, when the Orioles came to Baltimore in 1954, the purchase price was $2,200,000 $2,200,000 and they had a hard time raising it. It was later sold to Edward Bennett Williams for about I think it was $12,000,000 His estate sold it for around $75,000,000 My predecessor owner paid about $155,000,000 thirty years ago, and so $155,000,000 thirty years ago became $1,700,000,000 But $1,700,000,000 some people said to me, You've got a bargain. And some of the owners said, you didn't pay enough. You should have paid a higher price because we want the team values to be higher. But, you know, look at this, what's happened now in sports.

洛杉矶湖人队最近被某人以100亿美元的估值买下。波士顿凯尔特人队最近的估值是60亿美元。有人以大约100亿美元的估值购买或即将购买纽约巨人橄榄球队的股份。有人以大约100亿美元的估值购买了迈阿密海豚橄榄球队的股份，金额惊人。因此，价值的增长反映了人们热爱体育，尤其是棒球、篮球和橄榄球，电视转播权如此宝贵，人们关注这些体育项目，以至于有人认为花100亿美元估值购买一支篮球队是值得的。

The LA Lakers were recently valued by somebody that bought them at $10,000,000,000 valuation. The Boston Celtics were recently valued at $6,000,000,000 valuation. Somebody bought a stake in or was about to buy a stake in the New York Giants football team at roughly a $10,000,000,000 valuation. Somebody bought a stake in the Miami Dolphins football team at roughly a $10,000,000,000 valuation staggering amounts of money. So, the increase in value is reflected in the fact that people love sports, particularly baseball and basketball and football, and the TV rights have been so valuable and that people are paying attention to these sports such that people think it's worthwhile to pay $10,000,000,000 valuation for a basketball team.

但当你看到自由球员的价格或类似的东西，并且知道资金分配、资金保障的不确定性以及缺乏对实际会发生什么的清晰度时，你会发现自己犹豫吗？

But do you find yourself hesitating when you see the price of a free agent or something and know the unpredictability of money allocated, money guaranteed, and lack of clarity about what's actually going to happen?

嗯，这与我曾经生活的私募股权世界不同。人们一年做得好，你给他们奖金，然后看他们下一年表现如何。下一年。年复一年。

Well, it's different than the private equity world in which I've lived. People do well in a year. You give them a bonus, and you see how they're going to do the next year. Next year. Year to year.

对。但在这里，由于棒球以及其他体育项目的设置方式，你有更长期的合同。我们刚刚与一位刚满21岁的年轻人达成了一项长期安排。我们给了他一份长期合同。他将在这里待相当长一段时间。

Right. But here, because of the way baseball is set up and other sports as well, you have longer term contracts. And we just entered into a longer term arrangement with a young man who's just turned 21, I believe it is. And we gave him a long term contract. He's going to be here for quite some time.

而且，当时对我来说，这个价格对于一个这样的人来说似乎很高。他只打过四场美国职业棒球大联盟的比赛。但他做得非常出色。前几天晚上他打出了一记再见全垒打，我们对这个安排非常满意。我们也希望能做其他类似的事情。

And, the price was seemed high to me for a person at the time. He'd only played four Major League Baseball games. But he did a great job. He had a walk off home run the other night, and we're very happy with the arrangement. And we hope we can do other things like that as well.

你刚才提到，博彩是体育受欢迎的一部分。你对博彩和体育最终将走向何方有任何焦虑吗？

You mentioned a moment ago, betting is part of the popularity of sport. Do you have any anxiety about where betting and sports is ultimately going to land?

我不知道。当我还是个高中男生时，我曾对一场体育赛事下注，结果输了。别人告诉我肯定不会输，但我还是输了。于是我发誓这辈子再也不赌博，我也确实再没赌过。我不赌博，从不下注。

I don't know. When I was a young boy in high school, I bet on a sporting event and I lost. I was told I couldn't lose and I lost. And I swore I would never bet again in my life and I never have. I don't gamble, never bet at all.

但毫无疑问，其他人确实对赌博有特殊偏好。人们总以为自己会赢，每个去拉斯维加斯的人都觉得自己会赢。通常他们并不会赢。但我觉得赌博是个复杂的话题，不仅因为你要赌输赢，人们还会赌投球是好球还是坏球、是不是曲线球、比分多少，他们针对这么多琐碎的人为细节下注，使得这些行为很难真正监管。这确实是个挑战。

But there's no doubt that other people have a real affinity for betting. And so people, you know, think they're going to win and everybody goes to Las Vegas thinks they're going to win. Usually they don't. But I think betting is a complicated subject, not just because you bet on who's going to win or who's going to lose, but people are betting on whether a pitch is going to be a strike, whether it's going to be a curveball, what the score is, and they're betting on so many of the little picky human things that it's hard to really police those things. So it's a challenge for sure.

我读过一些报道，关于玩家因赌博失利而产生失望甚至怨恨，进而对球员进行骚扰。

And I've read stories about harassment of players derived entirely from disappointment, if not bitterness, over betting.

我也读过相关报道。显然，我们意识到许多参与赌博的球员被抓并受到处罚。但非球员的赌徒们，也经常做出一些不当行为。

I have read that. And obviously, we recognize that many people have been caught betting who are players, and they've been penalized for that. But people who are not players who are betting, they're often doing some things that aren't appropriate.

比如通过社交媒体等渠道。在他们账号下叫嚣，涌入私信栏，用非常私人的方式骚扰他们。球员们表示这成了他们生活中的新困扰。

That's social media and things like that. Barking at them, getting into their direct message feeds, and hassling them in deeply personal ways. And this is something that players say is a new dimension to their lives.

这很不幸，因为球员应该全力比赛，而不应该试图操纵比赛或做出有利于赌徒的行为。我对此没有解决方案。这个问题存在已久，我无法解决。但我希望有人能想办法确保比赛尽可能公正。

It's unfortunate because players should be playing to the best of their abilities and shouldn't be trying to shade things or do certain things that are help betters. I don't have an answer for it. It's been going on for quite some time. I'm not going to solve that problem. But I hope somebody can deal with how we can make certain that the games are as honest as possible.

棒球运动健康吗？很健康。每年有超过7000万人观看美国职业棒球大联盟比赛，这个数字很庞大。当然我们总是希望吸引更多观众，很乐意看到更多人参与。

Is baseball healthy? Baseball is healthy. We have more than 70,000,000 people a year going to Major League Baseball games, which is a lot of people. Baseball could always have more people going. Sure, we're happy to have more people come.

棒球运动是健康的。人们热爱棒球，但情况有所变化。我小时候，非裔美国运动员更愿意选择棒球。现在他们更倾向于选择美式足球和篮球。所以现在大联盟中非裔球员的比例相比过去要小得多。

Baseball is healthy. People love baseball, But it has changed a bit. When I was a boy, young African American athletes would want to go into baseball. Now they tend to go more into football and basketball. So the major league percentage of African American players is now relatively small compared to what it used to be.

所有大联盟球队都在通过多种方式努力解决这个问题。是的。

All of the major leagues are working on that in a lot of different Yes.

他们确实在努力。我们正在尽最大努力吸引更多城市居民来到球场，因为如果父母来看球，可能会激发孩子成为棒球运动员的兴趣。所以我们需要继续努力。但棒球运动相当健康。别忘了我们有30支球队，这30支球队的上座率都相当不错。

And they are trying to do that. We are now doing the best we can to get more people from urban areas to come to the stadiums because, you know, if you come, maybe you'll induce your children who want to be baseball players and so forth. So, we've got to work on that. But baseball is pretty healthy. Remember, you've got 30 teams, and 30 teams are really doing pretty well in attendance.

我们有很多人来看比赛，虽然没有NFL比赛那么多，因为NFL比赛确实更少。但我认为棒球运动发展得相当健康，不过总还有提升空间。总可以变得更好。我们有一位非常出色的总裁正在努力改进这项运动，球队老板们也决心让它变得更好。

We get a lot of people coming to the games, not as many as, let's say, an NFL game, because there are fewer NFL games, for sure. But, I think baseball is pretty healthy, but can always be better. Can always be better. And we have a very good commissioner working on making it better, and the owners are determined to make it a better sport.

您最近刚庆祝了卡尔·瑞普肯打破卢·格里克连续出场纪录三十周年。当时很多人都感谢卡尔·瑞普肯拯救了棒球运动。部分原因是兴奋剂问题，但劳资纠纷也是因素之一。展望未来，您如何看待劳资纠纷的潜在风险？这永远无法预测，

You recently celebrated the thirtieth anniversary of Cal Ripken breaking Lou Gehrig's consecutive games played streak. At the time, many people thanked Cal Ripken for saving baseball. Part of that was performance enhancing drugs, but also part of it was labor strife. Looking forward, how do you perceive the potential dangers of labor strife? You never can predict,

局势会如何发展。我们与球员协会签订的合同将持续到2026赛季结束。通常棒球界的做法是等到合同到期再开始谈判。也许之前会有一些讨论，我不确定。我不参与棒球的这部分事务。

where the situation is going to go. We have a contract with the Players Association such that through the end of the twenty sixth season, have a contract. And so generally, the way baseball works is you don't tend to negotiate until the contract is up. Maybe there'll be some discussion before I don't know. I'm not involved in that part of baseball.

作为资历较浅的老板，我还没有资格参与其中。但总裁和执行委员会、劳资委员会的许多老板们在这方面花费的时间比我多得多。我还在初级委员会。我确实认为棒球是美国人民真正想看到的运动，他们希望比赛继续。我相信美国人民、球队老板和球员都希望棒球运动持续发展，不要有任何中断。

I'm too junior an owner to be involved in it. But the commissioner and a lot of the owners that are on the executive committee and on the labor committee are spending more time on it than I am. I'm on the junior committees. So, I do think that baseball is something the American people really want to see, and they want to see it played. And I think the American people and and the owners and the players want to continue baseball and not have any interruptions.

我希望能实现这个目标。

I'm hopeful that'll happen.

大卫，我们上次交谈时，特朗普总统即将就职。您当时对他第二任期的前景相对乐观。您现在仍然保持乐观吗？

Last time we talked, David, president Trump was about to be inaugurated. And you were relatively sanguine about how the second iteration of President Trump's presidency would go. Are you still sanguine?

嗯，他现在和第一任期时不同了。第一任期时他从未担任过公职，身边有很多有政府经验的人。他当时需要比他自己更懂政府运作的人，因为那时他了解得不多。

Well, he's different than he was the first term. The first term he had never been in office before. He had a lot of people who had been in government before around him. He wanted people who knew more about government than he did. He didn't know much at that time.

现在他已经当过四年总统了。进入第二任期后，他带来了不同类型的人，那些他感觉更自在的人。所以第二任期肯定与第一任期在很多方面都不同。

He's now been president for four years before. Now he's in his second term, and he's bringing different kinds of people, people who he feels more comfortable with. So the second term is different than the first term for sure, many ways.

是往坏的方向不同？还是好的方向不同？

Different bad? Different good?

我不会用贬义或褒义来分类评价。我会说就是不同。不同之处在于他现在更加自信，对自己的判断更有信心，并且清楚自己想要做什么，而不像第一次那样摸索前行。他在第一任期做了一些好事，也有一些我不一定同意的事情。

I won't categorize it or say it pejoratively or positively. I would say it's different. It's different because he's much more self assured, much more confident of his judgment, and he knows what he wants to do, as opposed to the first time around. I think he was feeling his way. He did some good things in the first term, some things I wouldn't agree with necessarily.

在第二任期，他知道自己想要做什么，并且正在着手去做。有些人喜欢这样，有些人不喜欢。

In the second term, he knows what he wants to do, and he's proceeding to do it. And some people like it, some people don't.

你如何评估当前的经济状况？

How would you assess where the economy is right now?

经济？经济是一个，你知道，一个30万亿美元的经济体，每年30万亿美元的经济规模。所以，很难说一个30万亿美元的经济体会走向何方。事物变化相对缓慢。但我想说，目前我没有看到经济衰退即将来临。

The economy? The economy is something where it's, you know, it's a $30,000,000,000,000 economy, dollars 30,000,000,000,000 annual economy. So, it's hard to say where a $30,000,000,000,000 economy is going to go. Things move relatively slowly. But I'd say right now, I don't see a recession imminently in front of us.

我们已经有一段时间没有经历经济衰退了。通常，每七年会有一次衰退，但我们确实还没有遇到。在新冠疫情期间我们有过技术性衰退，但不是真正的衰退。所以，我认为当经济这么久没有衰退时，总是会面临衰退的风险，但我没有看到衰退的迹象。目前，虽然就业数据比大家期望的要疲软一些，但我认为通胀情况比几年前要好。

We haven't had a recession for a while. Normally, you have recessions every seven years, and we really haven't had one. We had a technical recession during COVID, but not a real recession. So, I think the economy is always due for a recession when you've gone this long without one, but I don't see one on the horizon. Right now, while the jobs numbers are softer and softer than everybody would like, I think inflation is not as bad as it was a couple years ago.

通胀正在下降，还可以再好一些。但总的来说，我认为美国的技术世界非常强大。我们在技术上主导世界，这正在推动美国经济和全球经济。随着人工智能变得越来越强大，我认为它将真正帮助进一步推动美国经济增长。

It's coming down, still could be a little bit better. But generally, I think the American technology world is so strong. We dominate the world in technology, and that's fueling the economy and fueling the global economy too. And as artificial intelligence becomes more and more powerful, I think it's going to really help fuel American growth even more.

不过，在技术和特别是人工智能方面存在推拉效应。我读过一些公司的分析，它们预测由于生产力提升将带来更高的增长和盈利能力，但人员几乎不会增加。所以，这意味着公司会更富有，但不会创造更多就业机会。

There's push and pull on that, though, with technology and particularly artificial intelligence. I've read analysis of companies that are projecting much higher growth and profitability but almost zero increase in personnel because of productivity gains they are going So to assume from that makes them wealthier, but it doesn't create more jobs.

这里确实存在推拉效应。当19世纪末工业革命来临时，人们说工作岗位将被取代，人们会失业。是的，确实有转型期。但任何时候出现新事物时，不幸的是有些人会被替代，有些人会获得新工作，所以人们可能会从事不同的工作。目前，我们的失业率相对较低，略高于4%，相对于我们这样规模的经济体来说并不算差。而且我们现在有更多的职位空缺，比能填补这些职位的人还要多。

There's a push and pull there. When the Industrial Revolution came along in the late 1800s, people said jobs are going to be taken away and people are going to lose their jobs. And yes, there was transition. But any time something comes along that's new, some people are displaced, unfortunately, and some people get new jobs, and so people may get different jobs. Right now, we have a relatively low unemployment rate, relatively low, a little bit more than 4%, which is not that bad relative to an economy of our size, And we now have more people, you know, more job openings than we have people to fill these jobs.

所以，我认为经济将经历一个转型期。人工智能最终会做到人们可能认为它会做的事情，即稍微改变就业结构。但最终，人们将接受人工智能相关工作的培训。随着时间的推移，我怀疑这对经济将是有益的。

So, I think the economy is going to go through a transition. AI will ultimately do what people probably think it will do, which is to change the job mix a bit. But ultimately, you're going to have people train for AI kind of jobs. And ultimately, over a period of time, I suspect it will be good for the economy.

那么当反对者说这是一个根本性转变，不像工业革命，也不像以前的任何技术，因为它是全方位的，并且取代了如此多的人类任务时，你说，一切都会好起来的？

So when the naysayers say this is a fundamental shift, it's not like the Industrial Revolution, it's not like any other technology before, Because it's all encompassing and because it takes so many human tasks out, you say, it's going be all right?

嗯，正如有人曾经说过——我想是坦普尔顿勋爵——英语中最危险的话是'这次不一样'。所以说这次不一样真的很危险，因为我不认为这与我们经历过的其他改变经济的事物有那么大的不同。记得互联网出现时，人们说，哦，人们现在要失业了。我们不再需要以前需要的某些东西。但互联网催生了很多工作岗位。

Well, as one person once said I think it was Lord Templeton the most dangerous words in the English language are this time is different. And so, to say this time is different is really dangerous, because I don't think it's that different than other things we've had that have changed the economy. Remember, when the internet came along, people said, uh-oh, people are going lose their jobs now. We won't have the needs for certain things that we had before. The internet has fueled a lot of jobs.

记住，我们以前没有，比如说，优步之所以成为可能是因为互联网，这创造了很多就业机会。所以我认为对人类来说，要预测五年、十年后经济会发生什么，作为一般经验法则太过困难。鉴于我们目前的处境，我宁愿拥有我们的人工智能地位，而不是其他国家的人工智能地位。其他国家，我认为，对我们迄今为止在人工智能领域的成就非常羡慕，而我们真的还处于人工智能的第一局刚开始的阶段。我们只是还不知道它将如何运作。

Remember, we didn't have, let's say, Uber is possible because of the internet, and that's created a lot of jobs. And so I think it's too difficult for humans to say what's going to happen five years, ten years down the road in the economy as a general rule of thumb. Given where we are today, I'd much rather have our AI position than the AI positions of other countries. Other countries, I think, are really envious of what we've done in AI so far, and we're really at the beginning of the first inning, really, I would say in AI. We just don't really know yet how it's going to work.

但我，你知道，很高兴我投资组合中一些人工智能公司的估值，因为它们表现相当不错，而且我认为它们会继续表现良好。你和我

But I, you know, be happy to have the valuations of some of the AI companies in my portfolio because they have done quite well, and I think they're going to continue to do well. You and I

都是有一定年纪的绅士了。嗯，你比我年轻，所以你很客气。只是稍微年轻一点。我们记得自动取款机出现时，有一大堆关于自动取款机会淘汰银行工作的讨论。而实际发生的是，是的，出纳员做的事情确实变少了。

are gentlemen of a certain age. Well, you're younger than me, so you're being polite. Just by a smidge. We remember when ATMs came in, and there was a tremendous set of conversations going on about ATMs eliminating bank jobs. And what happened is, yes, tellers did fewer things.

但随后银行提供了更多服务，因为交易现在电子化了。而且雇佣了更多的人。嗯，这只是我认为你所指观点的一个小例子。

But then banks provided more services because that transaction was now electronic. And more people got hired. Well That's just one small example of what I think you're driving at.

是的。看，当自动取款机出现时，人们说我们不再需要银行分行了。但我们有很多银行分行。现在人们说自动取款机过时了，因为一切都可以电子化完成。你甚至根本不需要取现金。

Yes. Look, when ATMs came along, people said we're not going need branch banks anymore. We have plenty of branch banks. Now people are saying ATMs are dated because everything is done electronically. You don't even need to get cash at all.

所以，我的很多朋友对我说，为什么我时不时还要带现金？你可以把所有东西都放在电子设备上。而我太老派了，不知道怎么那样做，所以我仍然去银行取款机取一些现金。

So, a lot of my friends say to me, why do I actually show up with cash from time to time? You can just put everything on an electronic device. And I'm too old fashioned how to do that, so I still go to the bank machine to get some cash.

我也是。

Me too.

但我惊讶于有多少人根本不取现金，也完全不用现金。

But I'm amazed at how many people don't get any cash, and they don't use cash at all.

大卫，我坐飞机还用纸质机票呢，所以你知道

David, I get on planes with paper tickets, so just so you know

我是多么固守自己的方式。你是说他们除了纸质机票还有其他东西？我不知道。

how rooted in my ways I am. You mean they have something other than paper tickets? I don't know.

词语联想：关税。

Word association tariffs.

关税在我国建国之初就已存在。通常，当你想保护本国经济时会征收关税。就我们而言，我国经济状况相当不错。但我们现在的困境是，由于那份宏大美好的法案以特定方式构建，它假设未来十年将会有大量关税收入。据国会预算官员的最新数据，未来十年预计会有约3到4万亿美元的收入。

Tariffs are something that's been around since the beginning of our country. Normally, have tariffs when you're trying to protect your economy. In our case, our economy is in pretty good shape. But the dilemma we now have is that because the big beautiful bill was structured in a certain way, it assumes there's gonna be a lot of tariff revenue coming in over the next ten years. I think the latest numbers from the congressional budget officer are somewhere between 3 and $4,000,000,000,000 are gonna come in over the next ten years.

因此，如果取消关税且没有这笔收入，我们的预算赤字将会大得多。所以我们把自己置于可能需要关税的境地，因为预算收入是必需的。如你所知，我国存在严重的预算赤字问题，目前总负债约为36.37万亿美元，这是个重大问题。

So if you were to eliminate the tariffs and we don't have this revenue, we're going to have much bigger budget deficits. So we've locked ourselves in the position we probably need the tariffs because the budget revenue is necessary. We have a big budget deficit problem, as you know, in this country, and we have now about 36,000,000,000,037 trillion dollars of total indebtedness, and that's a big problem.

最高法院将不得不裁定这些关税的合法性，因为它们是根据1970年代紧急经济法下历任总统都未曾主张的权力实施的。如果最高法院认为此举越权，并强调根据宪法明确规定，关税必须经由国会批准，那么特朗普可能会遭遇挫败，整个局面可能被颠覆。

And the Supreme Court's going to have to decide about the legality of these tariffs because they are imposed under authorities that no previous president has claimed under a 1970s emergency economic law. If the Supreme Court says, wait a minute, you've exceeded your authority and Congress is the one, and the Constitution is very clear about this, if there are going to be tariffs, they need to go through Congress, Trump could suffer a defeat and all this could be turned upside down.

我认为他们是用1977年的紧急关税立法来证明其合理性。但还有其他可用的立法，很可能也会被采用。他们可能会动用其他赋予总统比77年立法更多权力的法律。最高法院不是一个试图做出大胆裁决、声称要解决世界上所有问题的法院。他们会尝试以狭隘的方式审理此案，可能基于具体理由作出判决。

Well, I think what happened was they used the 1977 emergency, tariff legislation to justify it. But there is other legislation that could have been used and may well be used. So they may use that other legislation, which does give the president more rights than that 'seventy seven legislation. The Supreme Court, is a court that doesn't try to make bold decisions and say, we're going to solve all problems in the world when a case comes to us. They try to look at the narrow way that they can decide this case, and they might decide it on narrow grounds.

我只是不确定。解决这个问题需要时间。但我不认为关税会被完全取消，因为还有其他立法可能通过。当前主要由总统控制的国会可以通过立法赋予他想要的权力。所以我不确定这个案件能解决所有关税问题。

I just don't know. It's gonna take a while before it's resolved. But I I I don't think that the tariffs are likely to be completely eliminated because there's other legislation that could pass. And the current Congress, which is controlled by the president largely, could pass legislation that might give him the authority he might want anyway. So I'm not sure that this case is going to resolve all these tariff issues.

肯尼迪中心现在情况如何？我曾担任其主席十四年，为此深感自豪。那时我们举办了一些盛大的活动，就娱乐界而言，一些最激动人心的活动如肯尼迪中心荣誉奖都在那里举行。特朗普总统决定他想担任主席。

Kennedy Center, what's going on there? I served as the chairman of it for fourteen years. I was very proud to be chairman of it. And we had some great events there at the time, and some of the most exciting events I've ever been to in terms of the entertainment world were at the Kennedy Center, the Kennedy Center Honors. President Trump decided he wanted to be the chairman.

他现在是主席了。所以我不再参与其中，转而专注于其他事务。我祝愿肯尼迪中心一切顺利，我认为它是一个伟大的机构。

He's now the chairman of it. So, I'm not involved any longer in it. And so, I've been focusing on other things. So, I wish the Kennedy Center the best. I think it's a great organization.

我希望去肯尼迪中心的人对那里的演出满意，但我已不再参与。总统暗示说建筑破旧，娱乐选择变得过于‘觉醒’。

And I hope people who go to the Kennedy Center are pleased with the performances there, but I'm just not involved any longer in it. By inference, the president has said that the building is dilapidated and the entertainment selections had become overtly woke.

你想回应其中任何一点吗？因为这涉及到你的主席任期。

Do you want to address either one of those? Because they reflect on your chairmanship.

嗯，我为自己担任主席期间的作为感到自豪。我自掏腰包向肯尼迪中心捐赠了超过1亿美元，用于建设某些设施、支持项目等等。所以我对担任肯尼迪中心主席期间的作为感到骄傲，我不会回应那些认为肯尼迪中心不如我想象中那么好的评论。你知道，每个组织的负责人都认为自己做得不错。我认为自己做得很好，但也许别人会评判说我做得不好。

Well, I'm proud of what I did as chairman. I gave the Kennedy Center more than $100,000,000 of my own money to try to build certain things there and help programs and so forth. So I'm proud of what I did when I was chairman of the Kennedy Center, and I'm not going to respond to comments that say the Kennedy Center is not as good as I thought it was. You know, everybody who's a chair of an organization thinks they do a good job. I thought I did a good job, but maybe other people can judge that I didn't do a good job.

但我对我们所做的工作感到满意，我们经历了共和党和民主党总统的任期。我就，你知道，我们就说到这里吧。

But I was happy with the job we had, and we had it through Republican and Democratic presidents, And I'm just, you know, we'll leave it at there.

您深入思考并经常撰写关于美国历史进程、其故事、抱负和缺陷的文章。大卫，我不需要提醒您。当前正进行着一场相当激烈的讨论：我们的制度优势何在？国家走向何方？我们曾经珍视并认为永恒的事物是否正在我们眼前分崩离析。您如何评估这一点？

You think deeply and write frequently about the arc of America's history, its story, its ambitions, its faults. David, I don't need to tell you. There is a pretty intense conversation going on right now about what is the strength of our institutions, what is the direction of our country, are things that we've once valued and assumed were permanent or falling apart before our very eyes. How would you assess that?

在历史的任何时期，人们总说世界正在崩溃。这种情况屡见不鲜。我认为如今美国整体状况相当不错。我们在许多领域（并非所有领域）都是世界羡慕的对象。我认为我们的许多大学是世界上最好的。

At any given time in history, people are always saying the world is falling apart. This happens lots of times. I would say today, The United States is in reasonably good shape. We are the envy of the world in many areas, not every area. I think many of our universities are the best in the world.

我认为我们的科技公司是世界一流的。我认为当前美国的年轻人受教育程度越来越高，并且在创办新公司方面雄心勃勃。我不会说国家面临任何危险。我会说总可以做得更好，如果我是美国总统，我会改变某些事情，但我不可能成为美国总统。我太年轻了。

I think our technology companies are the best in the world. I think right now American young people, I think increasingly, are well educated, and I think are ambitious in building new companies. I wouldn't say the country's in any peril. I would say you can always do better, and certain things I would change if I was president of The United States, but I'm not going to be president of The United States. I'm too young.

我才76岁。你需要更年长一些。

I'm only 76 years old. You need to be older.

确实，看起来是这样。那您不认为我们的制度正面临比过去更大的威胁吗？

Certainly, it appears that way. And you don't feel that our institutions are under any greater threat than they have been in the past?

嗯，有些制度确实面临一些挑战。但我认为说制度即将崩溃还为时过早。我们这个国家具有强大的韧性，虽然不时面临挑战，但我认为国家和人民的韧性将帮助这些制度度过当前面临的困难。记住，我们以前多次见过这种情况。制度受到挑战，它们存活下来，然后变得更强大。

Well, some institutions have some challenges for sure. But I think it's too early to say that the institutions are going to be falling apart. We have a great resilience in this country, and while there are challenges from time to time, I think that the resilience of the country and the American people will help these institutions get through the challenges that they have at this time. And remember, we've seen this kind of thing before many times. Institutions are challenged, they survive, they come back stronger.

而且我认为许多目前看似受到挑战的制度，一段时间后会变得更加强大。

And I think many of the institutions we're now, seeing as being somewhat challenged will come back stronger after a while.

如您所知，特朗普总统的支持者说：看，他赢了，他是美国政坛独特的人物，因为这就是国家想要的。它希望有些东西被撼动，希望这些制度即使不被推翻，至少也要用更怀疑的眼光看待。

And as you know, those who love president Trump say, look, he won, and he is a unique figure in American politics because that's what the country wants. It wants something shaken up, and it wants these institutions, if not toppled, certainly viewed with a more skeptical eye.

你看，美国总统赢得了两次总统大选，我第一次并不认为他会赢，因为他没有政府经验，但他赢了。我很惊讶。这次他获胜也让我意外，但他确实做到了。我认为选举会产生后果，我们现在面对的现实就是他掌管着联邦政府。我觉得他做的事情很多人喜欢，也有很多人不喜欢，我无法对他所有的行为都做出评论。

Look, the president of The United States won two presidential elections, and I didn't think he would win the first time he ran because he had no government experience, but he won. My surprise. I was surprised that he won this time, but he did. I think elections have consequences, and we are dealing with the fact that he's now in charge of the federal government. I think he's doing things that many people like and many people don't like, and I'm not really able to really comment on all the things he's doing.

但总的来说，我会说，他正在成为他心目中理想的那个自己。

But generally, I would say, he's fulfilling the man that he thinks he has.

他是我们历史上一个独特的人物，对吧？

He is a unique figure in our history, is he

他独特之处在于，确实没有哪位总统在就任前毫无政府经验。而且他现在做的许多事情是前任总统没做过的，但也许是其他总统曾经想做的。时间会证明这一切是否行得通。显然，存在一些挑战。

not? He's unique because no president had ever served before not having had government experience, for sure. And he's now, doing things that many presidents didn't do, but maybe other presidents wanted to do. Time will tell whether it's going to work out or not. Clearly, there are some challenges.

显然，华盛顿存在一些紧张局势。我认为自己没有能力解决这类问题。我确实尝试时不时以两党合作、无党派的方式邀请国会议员共进晚餐等，但我无法解决所有这些问题。这也是我从未竞选任何职位的一个很好理由，因为我在那个领域并不擅长。

Clearly, there are some tensions in Washington. I don't think I have the ability to resolve those kind of things. I do try to bring members of Congress together from time to time at dinners and so forth in a kind of bipartisan, nonpartisan way, But I don't have the ability to resolve all these problems. And there's a good reason why I haven't run for anything, because I'm not skilled in that area.

quickly back to baseball. 你比棒球更爱的运动有吗？

Back to baseball real quick. Is there any sport you love more than baseball?

嗯，棒球是我最爱的运动。我小时候是个棒球手，在小联盟打球。我打得不是特别好，但入选了全明星，不过我觉得那时候好像人人都能当全明星，人人都能拿奖杯。我尝试加入了高中校队，自认为表现还不错之后，教练过来对我说：'你知道，我真的很喜欢你。'

Well, baseball is my favorite sport. I was a baseball player when I was a little boy. It was a little league. I wasn't that great at it, but I was an all star, but it was only I think everybody was an all star, and I think everybody got a trophy. I tried out for my junior varsity high school team, and after I thought I did a pretty good job, the coach came to me and said, You know, I really like you a lot.

'我希望你当球队的经理。'我说：'经理？天啊，我不知道。我还没准备好当经理呢。'然后我才意识到经理就是负责管理器材等等的人。

I'd like you to be the manager of the team. I said, Well, the manager? Geez, I don't know. I'm not really ready to be a manager. And realized the manager was the person who takes care of the equipment and so forth.

于是我说：'让我跟我父母商量一下。不知道他们是否真的想让我当经理。'我父母向我解释了经理是做什么的。

So I said, let me talk to my parents. I don't know if they really want me to be the manager. And my parents explained to me what being the manager was.

基本上就是器材管理员。

The equipment manager basically.

是的，那就是我。所以我决定不那么做。我希望自己当时能更高一些，更强壮一些。那样我本可以成为一名更好的运动员。

Yes, that's what I was. So I decided not to do that. I wish I had been taller. I wish I had been stronger. I would have been a better athlete.

但生活对我来说还算顺利。

But life worked out Okay for me.

体育中的失败与商业中的失败有哪些相似之处？

What are the parallels between failure in sports and failure in business?

嗯，体育中的失败，如果你是一名运动员，你的职业生涯相对较短。作为老板，你可以继续当老板，即使不那么成功，不那么盈利，你的球迷也不会那么开心。

Well, failure in sports, if you're an athlete, you're going to have a relatively short career. As an owner, you can continue being an owner and not be that successful, not be that profitable, and your fans won't be that happy.

但你仍然可以赚钱。

But you can still make money.

在体育中，你仍然可以通过多种方式赚钱。并非所有球队表现不好都能赚钱。在商业中，判断你成功与否的方式多种多样。体育更具挑战性，因为在商业中，你可以投入更多资金，投入更多钱通常可能做得更好，但并非总是如此。在体育中，投入最多资金的球队并不总是能赢。

You can still make money in sports many different ways. Not all teams make money if they don't do well. In business, there are many different ways to judge your success in business and so forth. It's more challenging in sports because you don't, In business, you can you can put more money into things, and you put more money that you'll probably do better, not always. In sports, it's not always the case that the team that puts in the most money will always win.

在某些情况下，资金较少或来自较小城市的球队仍然能赢。比如现在，美国职业棒球大联盟中战绩最好的球队是密尔沃基酿酒人队。他们是

In some cases, teams that have smaller amounts of money or come from smaller cities still win. Right now, we talk, the team with the best record in Major League Baseball is Milwaukee Brewers. They're One

最小的市场之一，薪资总额最低的球队之一。

of the smallest markets, of the smallest paid payrolls.

是的。所以，并非投入最多薪资的球队就一定能赢。这是一件非常复杂的事情，像我这样来自商界的人习惯于解决问题，投入资金进行思考、投入商业事务，认为投入更多资金就能让事情变得更好，但到了棒球领域，你会发现这有点超出你的控制。你知道，我无法让26名球员完全按照我的意愿行事。这是完全不同的事情，这是一种与我以往经历不同的生活体验方式。

Yes. So, it doesn't always happen that whoever puts in the biggest payroll is going to win. So, it's a very complicated thing, and people who are like me who are in the business world are used to solving problems, putting money into thinking, into business things, and make the things better if you put more money in, realize when you get to baseball, it's beyond your control a bit. You know, I can't get, you know, 26 players to do exactly what I want them to do. It's just a different thing, and it's just a way to experience life that's different than what I've been before.

这很令人享受，但无疑也充满挑战。

It's enjoyable, but it has its challenges for sure.

你是私募股权最激进的倡导者之一。你坚信私募股权的价值。有些美国人看待私募股权时说，他们不过是剥离资产的艺术家，进来掠夺一家公司，将其拆分出售，为股东或私募机构的购买者带来巨大收益，但离开后却让公司状况变得更糟。我想给你一个机会来颂扬私募股权的优点。

You are one of the most aggressive advocates for private equity. You believe in private equity. There are some Americans who look at private equity and say they're just stripped down artists that come in, ravage a company, sell it off, do great for stockholders or shareholders or purchasers into a private equity institution, but leave things in worse condition after they arrive. I want to give you an opportunity to extol the virtues of private equity.

私募股权始于几十年前。在私募股权的早期，我认为有些人过度杠杆化了公司。记得在收购的早期阶段，公司的杠杆率高达99比1。如果不是99比1，就是95比5。所以这些交易杠杆率极高，其中一些交易并未成功。

Well, private equity was started many decades ago. In the early days of private equity, I think some people over leveraged companies. Remember, in the early days of buyouts, companies were levered 99 to one. And if it wasn't 99 to one, it was 95 to five. So, these things were highly levered, and some of those deals didn't work out.

如今，私募股权的世界完全不同了。这是一个完全不同的世界。名称相同，但本质完全不同。例如，如今收购交易的平均股权成分可能达到50%。违约的可能性大大降低了。

Today, the private equity world is completely different. It's a completely different world. It has the same name, but completely different. For example, today, an average equity component of a buyout deal might be 50%. The chance of default is much, much reduced.

如今，私募股权公司拥有大量首席运营官，他们在公司内部工作，以帮助我们投资的企业。所以这不仅仅是出售资产、剥离资产的问题，那是三四十年前的做法。如今，我们真正在创造价值。因此与多年前大不相同。而且，当你仔细想想，每年在美国破产的公司中，更多是与私募股权毫无关联的企业。

Today, the private equity firms have enormous amounts of chief operating officers who work in the private equity firm to help the companies we invest in. So it's not just a matter of selling off assets, stripping down assets, which was done thirty, forty years ago. Today, we're really adding value. So it's much different than it was many years ago. And also, when you think about it, more companies go bankrupt every year in The United States that have no affiliation with private equity.

破产的公司往往是那些存在许多其他问题，但与私募股权无关的企业。私募股权公司状况相当良好。实际上，私募股权代表了许多捐赠基金、大学捐赠基金和养老基金的利益，我们为他们赚取收益。当我们获得良好回报时，他们也会受益，因为养老金领取者将从中获益。所以，并不完全是我们独吞利润。

The companies that go bankrupt tend to be companies that have lots of other problems, but they had no private equity connections. Private equity firms are in pretty good shape. And actually, what happens is private equity, we represent a lot of endowments, college endowments, and university endowments, and pension funds, and we represent their best interests, and we make money for them. And when we get good returns, they do better because their pensioners are going to benefit from it. So, it's not exactly we're putting money only in our pocket.

我们只有在投资者从与我们合作的投资中获得公平回报后，才会将利润放入自己的口袋。大卫，

We put money in our pocket only after the investors get a fair amount of return on their investment that they've made with us. David,

你是否对明年将举行中期选举以及特朗普总统在本任期结束后不会寻求第三任期有任何怀疑？

is there any doubt in your mind that we'll have a midterm election next year and that after this term is over, President Trump will not seek a third term?

自宪法诞生以来，真正始于1788年，我们每次都有中期选举。如果没有中期选举，我会非常惊讶。我没有理由相信我们不会举行中期选举。我100%确定我们会举行，而且我没有看到任何相反的证据。你知道，我们现在有200多年的中期选举传统。

Since the Constitution has started, we really started in 1788, we've had midterm elections every time. I'd be very surprised if we didn't have midterm elections. There's no reason for me to believe we won't have midterm elections. I'm 100% certain that we will, and I see no evidence that we will not. And, you know, we have a tradition now of two hundred plus years of midterm elections.

预测会发生什么非常困难。中期选举往往对现任总统的政党不利。当巴拉克·奥巴马担任总统时，他在第一次中期选举中失去了62个席位。我认为比尔·克林顿失去了54个席位。近期唯一在中期选举中表现良好的总统是乔治·W·

Predicting what's going to happen is very difficult. Midterm elections often go against the incumbent president power. When Barack Obama was president, he lost 62 seats his first midterm. I think Bill Clinton lost 54 seats. The only president in recent time who's actually done well in a midterm was George W.

布什，因为9/11事件。他增加了一个席位。我认为特朗普总统在他的第一个任期和第一次中期选举中失去了41个席位。所以通常来说，你可以认为总统的政党会失去一些席位，但你不知道真正会发生什么。当然，这只是众议院的情况，参议院另当别论。

Bush because of nineeleven. He picked up one seat. I think president Trump in his first midterm and his first term, I think he lost 41 seats. So generally, you can think the president power is gonna lose some seats, but you don't know what's really gonna happen. And of course, that's only talk about the house, know about the senate.

就特朗普总统而言，他现在79岁了，要知道，到了79岁这个年纪，我认为他不会想在83、84、85岁期间再次担任总统。所以如果他之后还有兴趣当总统，我会非常惊讶。很多时候，拥有权力的人不愿意放弃它，但有时他们会找到他们认为的门徒，能够继续推行他们的政策，而他有很多人选。所以，不，如果总统说他想要再连任一届，我会非常惊讶。我非常惊讶。他看起来怎么样？

In terms of President Trump, he is now, 79 years old, and, you know, at 79 years old, you know, I don't think he wants to be president again when he's in his eighty three, eighty four, eighty five year period of time, so I'd be very surprised if he were be interested in being president after that. Many time people times people who have power don't like to give it up, but sometimes they find people they think are their acolytes and who are gonna be able to continue their policies, and he has a lot of people to pick from. So, no, I'd be very surprised if the president said he wanted to be president for another term. I'd be very surprised. How does he look to you?

嗯，我最近没见过他。我在电视上看到过他，但最近没有亲自见过他。他看起来像70多岁的人。作为一个70多岁的人，每次照镜子我都会说，嘿，那条皱纹是哪来的？

Well, I haven't seen him lately. I've seen him on television. I haven't seen him in person lately. He looks like somebody who is in his 70s. And as somebody in my 70s, every time I look in the mirror, I say, hey, where did that wrinkle come from?

而且我还多了些白头发。所以，每个人都希望看起来比实际年龄年轻。我觉得他看起来还行。我有一阵子没亲自见过他了。但据我所知，我觉得他还不错。

And I got extra gray hair. So, everybody wants to be younger looking than they really are. I think he looks okay. I haven't seen him personally, for a while. So, but I think he's doing okay based on what I know.

有一个

There's a

关于对从政人员，尤其是达到一定年龄后，进行某种心智敏锐度测试的讨论。我们需要这个吗？

conversation about having some sort of mental acuity test for people who run for politics, especially after a certain age. Do we need that?

你知道，应该对想从政的人进行心智敏锐度测试。你为什么想从政？你知道这有多糟糕吗？也许他们还应该对想当体育球队老板的人也进行心智敏锐度测试。我不知道。

You know, it should be a mental acuity test for people who want to get into politics. Why do you want to get into politics? You know how terrible this is? Maybe they should have mental acuity tests for people who want be sports owners as well. I don't know.

也许他们也该这么做。但是，我认为这太复杂了，因为心智敏锐度测试并不像听起来那么科学。而且我认为还有其他方法可以判断一个人是否有能力胜任。我们确实有第二十五修正案可用。所以我认为这真的行不通。

Maybe they should do that too. But, I think it's too complicated because mental acuity tests are not as scientific as they might sound. And I think there are other ways you can judge whether a person has the ability to do it or not. We And do have the twenty fifth Amendment, which is available. So I don't think it would really work.

而且我认为，任何被测试的人，如果结果不利，反正很可能也不会接受。所以我认为我们不太可能这么做。我不知道有哪个国家真的这么做。

And I think whoever were tested wouldn't probably accept the results if they were unfavorable anyway. So I don't think we're likely to do that. I don't know of any country that really does that.

您今年会参加肯尼迪中心荣誉奖颁奖典礼吗？

Will you be attending the Kennedy Center Honors this year?

嗯，我今年没有被邀请参加肯尼迪中心荣誉奖颁奖典礼，但是，我不知道。实际上我有点害怕，因为当我卸任主席时，我在那段时间前后接了几个海外的演讲邀约，所以我可能不在国内。

Well, I haven't been invited to attend the Kennedy Center Honors this year, but, I don't know. I actually have scared because I when I stepped down as chair, I took a couple overseas speaking engagements around that time, so I probably won't be in the country.

戴维·鲁宾斯坦 永远是我的荣幸。

David Rubinstein always My pleasure.

现已在Paramount+平台播出。2020年，一个对口型的无名小卒席卷了互联网。大家好！新人请加入我们，我是你们的老白。

Now streaming on Paramount plus. In 2020, a lip syncing nobody took over the Internet. What's up, guys? For new, join us. It's your boy, Whitey.

还有你妈妈也是。

And also, your mom.

我一直迷恋着威廉·怀特，他比我儿子还年轻。

I've been lusting after William White who's younger than my son.

我觉得我的很多粉丝需要重拾年轻的感觉，重新点燃激情。

I feel like a lot of my fans needed to feel young again, like, gain a spark back.

我大概给了他10万到20万美元。

I've probably given him anywhere from 100 to $200,000.

欲望陷阱、名声、幻想与后果。现已在Paramount+平台播出。

Thirst trap, the fame, the fantasy, the fallout. Now streaming on Paramount plus.