一个人，一个计划，一条运河——火星！

这是《99% 隐形》。

This is 99% Invisible.

我是罗曼·马尔斯。

I'm Roman Mars.

几个世纪以来，人类仰望夜空，不禁疑惑：我们在宇宙中是孤独的吗？

For centuries, humans have looked up into the night sky and wondered, are we alone in the universe?

宇宙中是否存在智慧生命，这一可能性仍是伟大的谜团之一，而我并不指望在我有生之年能看到它被解开。

The possibility of intelligent life elsewhere in the cosmos remains one of the great mysteries and one that I don't expect to see resolved in my lifetime.

但在十九世纪末、二十世纪初的一段短暂时期里，整个西方世界都相信，‘我们是否孤独’这个问题终于有了答案，因为我们发现了火星上存在先进外星文明的证据。

But for a brief period heading into the twentieth century, much of the Western world believed that this question, are we alone, had finally been answered because we had discovered evidence of an advanced alien civilization living on Mars.

亚历山大·格拉汉姆·贝尔曾写道，他认为火星上存在智慧生命是毫无疑问的。

Alexander Graham Bell wrote that he thought there was no question that there was intelligent life on Mars.

你知道，哈佛、耶鲁和布朗大学的教授们——这些常春藤盟校的学者们——都完全认同这一观点，以至于到了1907年底，《华尔街日报》称，当年最大的新闻就是发现了火星上存在智慧生命的证据。

There were, you know, professors at Harvard and Yale and Brown, Ivy League institutions who were totally on board with this to the point where in the end of nineteen o seven, The Wall Street Journal said the biggest news of the year was proof of intelligent life on Mars.

这是大卫·巴伦，一位科学记者，也是新书《火星人：一场席卷世纪之交美国的外星热潮的真实故事》的作者。

This is David Barron, a science journalist and author of a new book called The Martians, The True Story of an Alien Craze That Captured Turn of the Century America.

大卫说，当时关于地外生命的新闻渗透到了整个文化中。

David says that news of extraterrestrial life at that time permeated the culture.

火星人无处不在。

Martians were everywhere.

你能在百老汇戏剧和滑稽表演中看到火星人的形象。

You'd see Martians depicted in Broadway plays and vaudeville skits.

在汀潘巷的音乐中，也有许多关于火星人的歌曲。

There were songs about the Martians in Tin Pan Alley music.

广告中也有火星人的身影。

There were Martians in advertising.

漫画里也有一个火星人，名叫来自火星的斯凯加克先生，他的形象出现在全国的报纸上。

There was a Martian in the comics, a guy named mister Skygack from Mars who was in newspapers across the country.

我最近与大卫聊了聊他的这本书，书中许多内容至今仍与我们今天关于科学、专业性和真相的讨论产生共鸣。

I recently spoke with David about his book, and so much of it still resonates with debates that we're having today about science, expertise, and truth.

他讲述的故事是一个关于大众妄想的寓言，揭示了无节制的推测如何渗透进公共话语，而这场闹剧的核心，是一位富有的业余天文学家，他让全世界相信火星人真实存在。

The story he tells is one of mass delusion about the dangers of unchecked speculation seeping into public discourse, and it's a drama that centers around the misplaced ambitions of one wealthy amateur astronomer who convinced the world Martians were real.

这是我和大卫·巴伦的对话。

Here's my chat with David Barron.

你的书围绕着一个叫珀西瓦尔·洛厄尔的人物展开，他是推动火星存在生命这一想法的核心动力。

So your book centers on a character named Percival Lowell, and he's sort of the engine powering this idea of life on Mars.

你能谈谈珀西瓦尔·洛厄尔是谁吗？

Could you talk about who Percival Lowell was?

嗯，洛厄尔这个人从心理上来说很有趣。

Well, so Lowell was an interesting man psychologically.

我当然没有见过他，也不是心理分析师，但很明显他自尊心很强，同时又很脆弱。

Now I obviously, I never met him, and I'm not a psychoanalyst but you know he clearly had a big ego and a fragile ego.

珀西瓦尔·洛厄尔来自新英格兰最显赫的家庭之一。

So Percival Lowell came from one of the most prominent families in New England.

马萨诸塞州的洛厄尔家族极其富有，是重要的慈善家，在马萨诸塞州和美国的文化中地位显赫。

The Lowells of Massachusetts were incredibly wealthy, were big philanthropists, were big in the culture of Massachusetts and The United States.

珀西瓦尔像家族中的所有男性一样，从哈佛大学毕业。

Percival graduated from Harvard like all the men in the family did.

他是长子，肩上扛着巨大的压力。

He was the eldest son and he had a lot a lot of weight on his shoulders.

他是个失败者。

He was a lull.

他的父亲曾告诉他和弟弟，他们必须在人生中做些重要的事情。

His father had told him and his brother that they had to do something important with their lives.

于是他一度四处旅行，当过作家，是最早前往朝鲜的美国人之一，并为此写了一本书，因此他确实以一位游历四方的人类学家身份声名鹊起。

And so for a while he traveled, he was a writer, he was one of the very first Americans to go to Korea, he wrote a book about it, so he really made quite a name for himself as this kind of roving anthropologist.

但当他接近四十岁时，他决定成为一名天文学家，并且他有足够的财富来大展身手。

But as he approached the age of 40 he decided he wanted to become an astronomer and he had the wealth to do it in a big way.

他实际上成为了当时美国最著名的天文学家。

And he really, he became, in essence, the most famous astronomer of that time in America.

那么当洛厄尔投身天文学时，当时的天文学界情况如何？

And so when Lowell takes up astronomy, like, what is going on in the field?

更具体地说，当时火星方面又有什么动态？

And and maybe more specifically, what was going on with Mars?

十九世纪天文学取得了重大进展。

So there were big advances in astronomy in the nineteenth century.

望远镜现在已经变得相当大且精密。

Telescopes were now getting quite large and sophisticated.

因此，到十九世纪末，天文学家们已经能够清晰地观测火星表面。

And so astronomers by the late nineteenth century were getting a really good view of the surface of Mars.

当然，火星在轨道上离我们非常近。

Now Mars, of course, is right next to us in terms of its orbit.

但地球和火星每26个月才接近一次。

But Earth and Mars only come close together once every twenty six months.

是的。

Mhmm.

大约每15年，地球和火星会特别接近。

And about every fifteen years, Earth and Mars come especially close together.

这时你才能通过望远镜相对清晰地看到火星。

And that's the time when you can really get up through your telescope see Mars in relatively good detail.

1877年正是这样一个年份，米兰有一位名叫乔瓦尼·斯基亚帕雷利的天文学家，决定绘制一张新的火星地图。他夜复一夜地观测这颗行星，并精确地画下所见景象。

Well 1877 was one of those years and there was an astronomer in Milan named Giovanni Schiaparelli who decided he was going to create a new map of Mars And night after night he studied the planet and he he drew what he saw with precision.

当他公布这张地图时，火星首先看起来非常像地球。

And when he came out with this map, Mars first of all looked very earth like.

它有深色区域，很快被认定为海洋；还有浅色区域，被认为是大陆。

It had dark areas that were soon to be oceans and light areas that were thought to be continents.

但斯基亚帕雷利还看到了纵横交错于浅色区域的细线，他推测这些是某种水道。

But Schiaparelli also saw these fine lines crisscrossing the light areas, and he imagined that they were waterways of some sort.

于是他称它们为‘cannoli’，在意大利语中意为‘渠道’。

So he called them cannoli, which in Italian means channels.

它们是某种水道。

They were water channels of some sort.

‘cannoli’一词被翻译或误译为英语中的‘canals’，而这个词的含义却大不相同。

Well, cannoli was translated or mistranslated into English as canals, which has a very different meaning.

是的。

Yeah.

比如，渠道或水道是自然形成的，但运河则是由某种生物或人类建造的。

Like, a channel or waterway is naturally occurring in the landscape, but a canal, like, that's made by something or someone.

对。

Right.

它们是个谜。

They were a mystery.

没人知道这些看起来笔直、似乎非自然的线条究竟是什么。

No one knew what these these lines that looked so straight that they seemed artificial might be.

1894年，帕西瓦尔·洛厄尔决定将自己余生的精力投入到研究火星上，成为一名天文学家，并决心解开运河之谜。

And it was Percival Lowell when he decided in 1894 to dedicate the next stage of his life to studying Mars, to becoming an astronomer, and he was going to solve the mystery of the canals.

对。

Right.

洛厄尔最终提出了一个宏大的理论。

And Lowell ultimately comes up with this grand theory.

他说，这些运河不仅真实存在，而且是一个由生活在火星上的先进外星文明建造的、覆盖整个星球的巨大系统，这简直太疯狂了。

He says, not only are the canals real, but in fact, they're a massive planet wide system created by an advanced alien civilization living on Mars, which is, like, crazy.

但你能解释一下他当时的想法吗？

But could you explain his thinking at the time?

对。

Right.

我知道，以今天的标准来看，这听起来很荒谬。

So I know that today it sounds ridiculous.

谁会认真对待这个说法呢？

How could anyone take this seriously?

但我确实要给他一些肯定。

But it was I actually give him credit.

那是一个前后一致的理论，符合当时关于火星的许多观点，至少值得研究。

It was a coherent theory that fit with a lot of ideas about Mars at the time that at least was worth investigating.

所以，这就是他的理论。

So here was the theory.

火星普遍被认为比地球更古老。

Mars, it was widely believed, was an older planet than Earth.

所以火星比地球更早冷却并变得宜居。

So Mars hardened and became habitable before Earth did.

因此你可以想象，火星上的生命比地球上的生命更早出现，火星上的生命甚至比地球上的生命更早变得智慧。

So you might imagine that there was life on Mars before on Earth, that life on Mars became intelligent before life on Earth.

因此，当时人们认为火星正处于其衰亡阶段。

So now Mars it was thought was in its dying phases.

而且人们已知火星拥有极地冰盖。

And it was known that Mars had polar ice caps.

嗯。

Mhmm.

所以如果火星上确实存在智慧生命，而水源正在枯竭，那么你需要做的就是开采冰盖的融水，把水引到你的城市和农田所在地。

So if in fact there was intelligent life on Mars and the water was running out, Well, the the what you would need to do was tap the melt water from the ice cap and bring the water down to where your cities and your farms are.

他就是认为那些运河是这么回事。

That's what he thought the canals were.

这是一张全球性的灌溉网络，让火星人能够依靠冰盖的水源生存下去。

This this was a worldwide irrigation network that allowed the Martians to survive off the water from the ice caps.

所以这是一个连贯的理论，但你知道，他一开始就只想证明自己是对的，这在科学上是个错误。

So it was a coherent theory, but, you know, he went into it wanting to prove himself right, which was is kind of a mistake in science.

是的。

Yeah.

而洛厄尔当然有充足的时间和资金来证明自己是对的。

And Lowell, of course, has a lot of time and money at his disposal to prove himself right.

所以他做的第一件事就是在亚利桑那州的弗拉格斯塔夫建造了一座最先进的天文台。

So one of the first things he does is build this state of the art observatory out in Flagstaff, Arizona.

他开始用自己那台昂贵的大型望远镜观测火星，然后画下他看到的东西。

And he starts looking at Mars through his big expensive telescope and then drawing what he sees.

但对于洛厄尔来说，你能描述一下在19世纪观测火星表面有哪些困难吗？

But for Lowell, could you could you describe what are the obstacles of trying to look at the surface of Mars back in the eighteen hundreds?

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是，我们必须把今天所有关于火星的知识都抛在脑后，因为我们所有人都看过火星表面的高分辨率照片和视频。

I mean, we have to put out of our minds everything we know about Mars today because we've all seen high resolution photos and videos of the surface of Mars.

我们知道它长什么样。

We know what it looks like.

但请把自己代入到十九世纪末。

But cast yourself back into the late nineteenth century.

当时我们对火星的全部了解，就是通过地球上的望远镜看到的景象，而火星最近时也距离我们三千五百万英里；更别说你还得透过地球的大气层观测，这就像从海底仰望天空。

All we knew about Mars was what you could see through an earth bound telescope of a planet that at its closest is 35,000,000 miles away but more than that you're looking through the Earth's atmosphere, it's like looking at the sky from the bottom of the ocean.

这层厚厚的大气会扭曲进入的光线，因此即使通过精密的望远镜观测火星，图像也会时而清晰时而模糊，不断晃动，你往往只有短短一瞬的清晰视野。

This ocean of air distorts the light as it comes in and so looking at Mars even through a fine telescope it tends to go in and out of focus, it wobbles, so you only have often just split second glimpses of clarity.

所以你必须长时间凝视这颗行星，才能捕捉到这些清晰的瞬间，然后记住你看到的东西。

So you have to stare at the planet over long long periods to get these moments of clarity and then remember what you saw.

那些运河并不是你盯着火星就能一眼看到的整片网络。

And so those canals, it's not like you could stare at the planet and you would just see this whole array of canals.

不是的。

No.

你只会看到望远镜里一个模糊的橙红色圆球，嗯。

You would see this fuzzy orange red orb in your telescope Mhmm.

它晃来晃去，突然间你看到一小部分变得清晰了，哦，我看到了一些线条，于是你就把它们画下来。

Wobbling around and then suddenly you'd see, oh, a little bit came into focus, and oh, I saw some lines, and you draw those.

然后你继续凝视，又看到了更多的这些线条。

And then you stare some more, and you see see more of these lines.

所以要真正弄清楚那里到底有什么，是非常非常困难的。

So it was very, very difficult to to really get a sense of what was there.

在书里，你确实写到了自己亲自去了洛厄尔天文台。

And in the book, you actually write about going to Lowell's Observatory yourself.

是的，我去过。

I did actually.

所以2018年，我去了位于弗拉格斯塔夫的洛厄尔天文台，通过洛厄尔当年使用的望远镜观测火星，那时火星和地球异常接近。

So in in 2018, I went to the Lowell Observatory in Flagstaff to look through Lowell's very telescope at a time when Mars and Earth were exceptionally close.

只是凝视着望远镜里这个杏黄色的光球，真的有种催眠般的感觉。

And just staring at this apricot colored orb in the telescope, it really sort of hypnotic.

你不停地看啊看啊看，有时候很难分清你究竟看到了什么，以为自己看到了什么，或者只是想象出来的。

You just you stare and you stare and you stare and it's it's sometimes hard to know what you've seen and what you thought you saw, what you imagined you saw.

他有没有和其他人合作，来支持他的主张？还是说他在这一领域是孤军奋战？

And is he is he working with other folks that are sort of buttressing his claims, or what what is how is he alone in this field?

嗯，他在建立洛厄尔天文台时，确实挖走了几位哈佛的天文学家来协助他。

Well, he so he had when he established the Lowell Observatory, he actually hired away a couple of Harvard astronomers to help him.

他先建立了天文台，然后一直留着一位助手在团队里。

First, found the observatory, and then he he kept one on his staff.

他的助手是一位优秀的天文学家，名叫安德鲁·埃利科特·道格拉斯，简称A.E.道格拉斯，他一直追随他的上司。

And so this assistant of his who was a fine astronomer named Andrew Ellicott Douglas, AE Douglas, you know, he went along with his boss.

他也看到了那些线条。

He saw the lines too.

他还绘制了这些线条的分布图。

He mapped the lines.

但随着时间推移，他开始怀疑这些线条是否真实存在，还是只是幻觉。

But over time, he started to question whether the lines were real or if they were illusory.

一旦他表达出任何疑虑，洛厄尔就立刻解雇了他，这充分说明洛厄尔非常反感别人质疑他。

And as soon as he expressed any doubt about it, Lowell summarily fired him, which says a lot about Lowell that he did not like to be questioned.

是的

Yeah.

所以当珀西瓦尔·洛厄尔看到这些通道时，他假设它们是运河，这些在科学界立即被接受了吗？还是对此存在争议？

So when Percival Lowell sees these channels, which he posits are canals, are they immediately accepted as a thing in the scientific community, or is there a debate about them?

哦，当时争论非常激烈。

Oh, there was huge debate.

这些火星上的线条，这些火星上的运河，非常难以观测。

So these these lines on Mars, these canals on Mars were very hard to see.

你知道，其他拥有优质望远镜的天文学家根本看不到这些线条。

You know, there were astronomers at other observatories with excellent telescopes who didn't see the lines.

甚至斯基亚帕雷利也说，它们并不总是出现。

And even Schiaparelli said they're not always there.

你并不总能看见它们。

You don't always see them.

你需要有合适的观测条件。

You have to have the right viewing conditions.

更复杂的是，这些线条时有时无。

And to make it even more complicated, the lines came and went.

因此，它们似乎随着火星的季节变化而出现和消失。

So it seemed that they came and went with the seasons on Mars.

这一切都非常神秘。

It was all very mysterious.

但你知道，当一位天文学家说他看不到，而另一位却说他看到了的时候。

But, you know, when you have one astronomer saying, I don't see them and another who says I do.

那些看不到的人会说，你的视力不够好，你的望远镜不够好，你的天文台所在位置大气条件差，根本看不清火星。

Well, the one who doesn't see them, can say, your eyesight isn't good enough, your telescope isn't good enough, your observatory is located in a place with bad air over overhead that you can't really get a clear view of Mars.

所以，那些看到线条的人在某种程度上占据了上风，没错。

So those who saw them kinda had the upper hand Right.

相对于那些看不到的人。

Against those who didn't see them.

那么，洛厄尔最终是如何向公众推广他的宏大理论的呢？

And so how does Lowell ultimately start pushing his grand theory out to the public?

因此，洛厄尔非常善于表达。

So Lowell Lowell was incredibly articulate.

他被认为是一位出色的演讲者。

He was considered an excellent speaker.

他出身于一个显赫的家庭。

He came from a prominent family.

人们愿意听他讲话。

People would listen to him.

他拥有多种传播自己观点的途径。

He had all sorts of means of conveying his ideas.

首先，在当时的波士顿，有一个名为洛厄尔研究所的知名组织，它邀请知名人士为公众免费举办讲座。

So first of all, in Boston at the time, there was a popular organization called the Lowell Institute, which brought in prominent speakers to give free lectures to the public.

而这个机构当然是由他一位已故的表亲创立的。

And, of course, this was founded by one of his late cousins.

事实上，它由洛厄尔的父亲亲自监管。

In fact it was overseen by Lowell's very father.

洛厄尔受邀为洛厄尔研究所就火星发表演讲，该研究所的讲座实际上是在麻省理工学院的一个大型礼堂举行。

Lowell was invited to speak about Mars to the Lowell Institute which actually had its lectures in a room, big auditorium at MIT.

因此，他通过这种方式触及了广大听众。

So he reached audiences that way.

随后，洛厄尔将他的演讲内容发表在《大西洋月刊》上。

Lowell then published the the text of his talks in the Atlantic Monthly.

《大西洋月刊》的创始主编是詹姆斯·拉塞尔·洛厄尔，也是他的亲戚。

The founding editor of the Atlantic Monthly was James Russell Lowell, also a relative.

因此，他非常擅长向公众传达自己的观点。

And so he was very good at presenting his ideas to the public.

是的。

Mhmm.

而且没过多久，你就有几场讲座、几篇发表在《大西洋月刊》上的文章，新闻界立刻对此产生兴趣，并对这些想法感到兴奋。

And it doesn't take long before you have a few lectures, you have a few, you know, articles in the Atlantic that journalism, he's not connected to just, like, takes this up and is very excited by these ideas.

你能谈谈当时报纸的情况吗？它们是如何利用火星热潮来吸引读者的？

Could you talk about what the papers were like at this time and how they kinda used the Mars craze to sell papers?

那时，美国的报纸正经历一场革命。

So this was a time when there was a revolution underway in America's newspapers.

著名的出版商约瑟夫·普利策和威廉·伦道夫·赫斯特基本上发明了小报新闻，当时被称为‘黄色新闻’，他们抓住一切耸人听闻的题材。

So the famous publishers Joseph Pulitzer and William Randolph Hearst were basically inventing the tabloid press which at the time was called the yellow press and they latched on to anything that was sensationalistic.

火星上有生命这个想法正好契合了这一点。

Well, the idea of life on Mars fit right in.

因此，当人们谈论火星人时，普利策和赫斯特的报纸大力向公众传播这一消息。

And so the Pulitzer and Hearst newspapers, when there was talk of the Martians, they really pushed it out onto the public.

他们抓住了洛厄尔的说法。

And they latched on to what Lowell was saying.

这帮助了这一观点在大众中传播开来。

And so that helped to propel this idea out into the general populace.

是的。

Yeah.

除了媒体之外，其他著名的科学家和学者也在大力推动洛厄尔的理论，包括尼古拉·特斯拉。

And beyond the press, other prominent scientists and academics are really pushing Lowell's theory too, including Nikola Tesla.

那么他是如何融入这一切的呢？

So how does he fit into all this?

尼古拉·特斯拉是一位改变世界的天才。

So Nicola Tesla was a genius who changed the world.

他也是一个性格古怪的人。

He also was an eccentric guy.

在1899年，完成所有关于有线电力传输的工作后，他开始对所谓的无线技术产生兴趣，也就是今天我们所说的无线电。

And in 1899, after having done all this work with the distribution of electricity by wires, he was getting interested in what was called wireless, what today we would call radio.

因此，他在1899年于科罗拉多州建立了一个实验实验室，研究电波如何通过大气传播。

And so he set up an experimental laboratory in Colorado in 1899 to study how electrical waves were transmitted through the atmosphere.

那时还没有任何无线电设备。

This was before there was anything.

当时没有广播电台，但你可以听到自然的电磁辐射，比如闪电产生的信号。

There were no radio stations, but you could listen to the to natural electromagnetic radiation like from lightning.

有一天晚上，特斯拉独自在实验室里聆听远处闪电和其他声音时，他的接收器里传出了最奇怪的声音。

And Tesla one night alone in the lab was listening to the sounds of of distant lightning and other things, and he heard the weirdest thing in his receiver.

这是一种以三连音重复的信号。

It was this signal that repeated in triplets.

它是一种咔哒、咔哒、咔哒，不断重复的声音。

It was sort of a click click click click over and over again.

他思索了良久，想知道这究竟是什么造成的。

And he pondered for a while what could possibly be causing it.

最终，特斯拉认为这不可能是自然现象。

And Tesla eventually decided there was no natural explanation.

最合理的解释是，这是珀西瓦尔·洛厄尔所描述的火星人正在向地球发送信号。

The most logical explanation was this was Percival Lowell's Martians sending a signal to the Earth.

当特斯拉向全世界宣布这一发现时，整个社会瞬间陷入狂热。

And when Tesla announced this to the world, the craze just completely took off.

你在书中有一部分是把自己代入那个时代，并直言不讳地说，你很可能也会被这场关于火星的狂热裹挟。

And one of the things that you do in the book is sort of cast yourself back to this time period, and you flat out say that you probably would have gotten wrapped up in this craze around Mars too.

所以你能谈谈这一点吗？

So can you can you talk a little bit about that?

那么，在世纪之交，究竟是什么让火星上存在生命显得如此合理呢？

Like, what is happening around the turn of the century that made life on Mars feel like it made complete sense?

嗯，这个时期今天我们称之为镀金时代，听起来像是一个辉煌美好的时代。

Well, so this was the period that today we remember as the Gilded Age, which makes it sound like it was this glittering wonderful time.

但对于很多人来说，事实并非如此。

It really wasn't for many many people.

对吧？

Right?

我们知道，当时极少数极其富裕的人与绝大多数极度贫困的人之间存在着巨大的鸿沟。

We we know that there was this tremendous divide between the the few exceptionally rich and the many who were desperately poor.

那是一个暴力劳工动荡频发、无政府主义盛行的时代。

This was a time when there was violent labor unrest, when there was anarchism.

美国总统威廉·麦金莱被一名无政府主义者刺杀。

William McKinley, President William McKinley was assassinated by an anarchist in The United States.

因此，人们有一种世界正在崩溃的感觉。

So there was a sense that the world was falling apart.

地球上的情况并不太好。

That things were not going so well on earth.

珀西瓦尔·洛厄尔理论的一部分是，火星人不仅在智力和技术上超越了我们，而且在道德上也比我们更优越。

And part of of Percival Lowell's theory was that the Martians were not only in advance of us intellectually and in terms of their technology, but they were better than us morally.

嗯哼。

Mhmm.

毕竟，如果这颗星球建成了全球性的灌溉网络，那就意味着每个人都在通力合作。

After all, if the planet has developed this global irrigation network that means everyone everywhere is working together.

北极的火星人正与赤道地区的火星人合作。

The Martians up in the Arctic are working together with those in the Equator.

那里一定没有互相征战的国家。

That there must not be warring nations.

这是一个整个星球团结一致的景象，对当时的人来说，这种想法非常吸引人——也许确实有可能创造一个更少暴力、人们彼此协作的世界。

This is an entire planet that's pulled together as one And that was a very appealing notion to people at that time to think that well maybe there maybe it's possible to create a world where there's less violence, where people are where beings are working together.

更重要的是，如果我们能与火星人取得联系，也许他们能帮我们解决地球上的问题。

And more than that, if we could just get in touch with the Martians, maybe they could solve our problems here on Earth.

你知道，我觉得

You know, I think

如果你告诉人们今天，宇宙中存在智慧生命的证据。

if you were to tell people today that there was evidence of intelligent life in the universe.

我认为人们会认为，如果我们有这种证据，那将会彻底颠覆我们的一切信仰。

And I think people think about it as like, well, if we had evidence of that, it would be so, like, earth shaking to everything we believe.

它会颠覆神学。

It would upend theology.

它会颠覆我们对自身在宇宙中位置的认知，以及我们对科学的理解。

It would upend our sense of self in the in the universe, our sense of science.

但实际上，我们已经经历过这种情况，大多数人相信这一点，而它似乎并没有产生那种颠覆一切的影响。

And we actually went through this where people mostly believe this, and it seems like it didn't have that type of effect where it upended everything.

它只是很好地融入了人们对上帝、宗教和科学的既有观念中。

It really just sort of, like, it kinda fit in nicely with everyone's view of God and religion and science.

你能谈谈这个吗？

Could you talk about that?

就像它多么顺利地融入了我们的世界观。

Like, how much it was so kind of nicely metabolized into our into our worldview.

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是，这真的让我很惊讶，因为你会以为当时有人会推测这会导致传统宗教崩溃。

I mean, that that really surprised me because you would think that and there were people at the time speculating that that this would cause traditional religion to crumble.

我的意思是，如果基督来到地球是为了拯救我们的灵魂，那基督也去火星了吗？

I mean, it you know, if if if Christ came to Earth to save our souls, did Christ go to Mars too?

我的意思是，这似乎有点牵强。

I mean, that seems to be stretching things.

但事实上，神学家和牧师们能够接纳这些观点，并没有觉得它们削弱了自己的信仰。

But actually, no, theologians and clergy were able to incorporate these ideas and not really fit they didn't feel that it undermined their beliefs.

而且，恰恰相反，他们找到了方法让这些观点强化了自己的信仰。

And any if anything, they they found ways for it to amplify their beliefs.

这不过是多了更多世界、更多生灵，由上帝来掌管罢了。

This was just even more worlds, more beings for God to oversee.

这恰恰展现了上帝的荣耀，比我们想象的还要伟大。

And it just it just showed the glory of God to be even greater than we imagined.

是的。

Yeah.

这不仅仅只是关于火星生命令人惊叹的方面。

So it isn't just like the gee whiz aspect of Martian life.

它真正关乎希望，关乎我们希望世界成为的样子。

It really is about hope and how we want our, you know, the world to be.

这是我研究那个时期时所发现的几个重大而深刻的洞见之一。

Well, that that that was one of the the big deep discoveries I felt that I made in studying that period.

因为我最初进入这个主题时，以为这只是一个精彩有趣的故事。

Because I first went into it and think this is just this is a rollicking good tale.

你能相信吗？当时的人们真的相信他们是火星人。

Can you believe it that at that time people really believed that they were Martians?

但后来我意识到，这反映了我们所有人内心深处一些普遍的渴望。

But then I came to see that it spoke to some very deep universal desires of all of us.

当我找到一篇刊登在全国各地报纸上的文章时，这一点变得尤为清晰——那是1909年，当时人们正在认真讨论如何与火星取得联系。

And this really this really became clear when I found this newspaper article that ran across the country, many newspapers in nineteen o nine, at a time when there was serious discussion of coming up with a way to communicate with Mars.

这篇文章的标题是《火星可能回答的问题》。

And so this article, the headline was questions Mars might answer.

它列出了当我们最终与火星人取得联系时，应该向他们提出的问题。

So it was a list of what we should ask the Martians when we finally get in touch with them.

你可能会以为我们会问一些实际的问题，比如如何建造运河，或者如何改进莱特兄弟的飞机。

Well, you would think we would ask them practical questions about building canals or or maybe how to improve on the airplane of the Wright brothers.

因为毫无疑问，火星人在机动飞行方面远超我们。

Cause surely the Martians are far in advance of us when it comes to motorized flight.

不。

No.

我们被建议向火星人提出的，是最具存在主义意义的问题。

The questions we that were suggested for us to ask Morris were the most existential questions.

生命的意义是什么？

What is the meaning of life?

人死后灵魂会怎样？

What happens to the soul when you die?

是的。

Mhmm.

我们如何防止人类的苦难？

How can we prevent human suffering?

这些就是我们想向火星人提出的问题。

These were the questions we had for the Martians.

广告后，火星热潮消退，以及这个故事为何至今仍引起共鸣。

After the break, the Mars fever breaks and why this story still resonates today.

请继续关注。

Stick around.

我们回来了，与大卫·巴伦在一起。

We are back with David Barron.

所以在世纪之交，博尔关于火星的设想达到了顶峰。

So at the turn of the century, Boll's ideas about Mars are at the peak of their powers.

但很快，更传统的天文学家注意到了这种流行趋势，决定是时候彻底终结这一切疯狂了。

But pretty soon, more traditional astronomers see this popularity, and they just decide it's time to finally put an end to all of this craziness.

是的。

Yeah.

因此，在安蒂卡纳勒斯群体中，有些人认为火星上的这些线条不过是光学幻觉。

So among the Anticanalus, there were those who said these lines on Mars are nothing more than optical illusions.

这是因为我们观察的行星正处于我们视觉感知的极限。

It's the fact that we're looking at a planet at the very limit of our perception.

人眼将一些点连接起来，看到了实际上并不存在的线条。

The eye is connecting up dots and seeing lines where there aren't any.

其中最著名的安蒂卡纳勒斯之一是爱德华·沃尔特·毛恩德，他是伦敦格林尼治天文台的天文学家。

And so one of the most prominent of these Anticanalis was Edward Walter Maunder who was an astronomer at the Greenwich Observatory in London.

他设计了一个非常有趣的实验来验证这种可能性。

And he came up with a really interesting experiment to see if this could be true.

他实际上招募了天文台附近一所男校的青少年学生参与一项实验：他拿了一张火星地图，把其中的运河线条全部擦除，替换成蜿蜒的河流，或只是点状和阴影处理——这些更符合自然形态，而不是笔直的人工灌溉渠。

He actually recruited these children, these young teens at a boys school right near the observatory to take part in an experiment where he took a map of Mars and where there were canals, he erased the canals, so he erased the straight lines and replaced them with meandering rivers or just stippling and shading, things that would would be natural, not just a straight irrigation canal.

他把这些图挂在教室前面，要求学生们坐在座位上。

And he had these depictions hung at the front of the classroom, And the boys were instructed to stay in their seats.

他们不能靠近去看，只能从自己坐的位置画出前方黑板上的内容。

They couldn't go any closer for a better look from where they were to draw what they saw at the front of the room.

他们不知道那是一张火星地图。

They didn't know it was a map of Mars.

他们完全不知道自己在画什么。

They had no idea what they were doing.

他们只是被要求尽可能忠实地画出来。

They were just asked to draw it as faithfully as possible.

结果非常有趣。

Well, was really interesting.

坐在前排、能清楚看到图画的学生准确地画出了蜿蜒的河流和点状阴影。

Those in the front of the room who could see the drawing very clearly drew it accurately with meandering rivers and stippling.

而坐在后排、距离太远而看不清任何细节的学生，则完全省略了这些特征。

Those in the very back of the room who were so far away, they really couldn't make out any of the details at all, left those features out entirely.

教室中间的学生能看到一些细微的特征，但不知道那是什么，于是画出了笔直的线条。

The boys in the middle of the room where they could see that there were some fine features but didn't know what they were drew straight lines.

他们看到的正是那些幻觉。

They were seeing those very illusions.

因此，洛厄尔嘲讽地称这种现象为‘火星线条的小男孩理论’，他说：‘你怎么能相信这些格林威治学校的孩子，而忽视像我这样有成就的天文学家呢？’

And so this then became, Lowell called it derisively, the small boy theory of the lines on Mars, which he said, well, how, you know, how can you trust these these Greenwich schoolboys over an accomplished astronomer like me?

我能分辨出幻觉和真实事物的区别。

I can tell the difference between an illusion and what's real.

是的。

Yeah.

他刚好有足够的放大倍数能看到一些东西，于是便自己把点连起来，画出了运河。

He had just enough magnification to see something, and therefore, he started connecting the dots himself and drawing canals.

对。

Right.

事实上，进行这项研究的天文学家蒙德赫认为，直到十九世纪末才有人看到火星上的运河，是因为当时的望远镜还不够大、不够好。

And the so in fact and what what Mondher, the astronomer who did the the the study, said was he thought that the reason no one had seen the canals on Mars until the late nineteenth century was because the telescopes weren't big enough and good enough.

这就好像我们一直站在房间后面，看不到火星上的任何细节，而那些望远镜把我们带到了房间中央，让我们看到有一些细节，但我们看得并不清楚。

It was as if we had been in the back of the room and couldn't see any details on Mars, And then those telescopes brought us to the middle of the room where we could see there were some details, but we weren't seeing them clearly.

嗯。

Mhmm.

他说，当我们拥有更先进的天文台时，我们就会走到房间前面，真正了解那里到底是什么。

And he said, when we get even better observatories, then we will move to the front of the room and know what's really there.

所以，这个‘小男孩理论’本质上是对洛厄尔的第一次公开质疑。

So the small boy theory is basically the first shot across the bow at Lowell.

但他是怎么最终被推翻的呢？

But how did he ultimately end up being taken down?

嗯，我的意思是，这件事迟早会崩溃，但有趣的是，推翻它的是另一位和他非常相似的天文学家。

Well, so I I mean, at some point, the whole thing would have crumbled, but it was another astronomer very much like him interestingly.

另一位富有的业余天文学家，曾经一度相信火星上有运河，但后来醒悟过来，意识到那些运河根本不存在。

Another wealthy amateur who had for a time believed in the canals of Mars who then woke up to the fact that they weren't really there.

他的名字叫欧仁·米歇尔·安东尼亚里。

So his name was Eugene Michel Antoniari.

他最初来自希腊。

He was originally from from Greece.

安东尼阿里制作了这些布满运河的火星地图。

And Antoniari had made these maps of Mars crisscrossed by the canals.

所以他确实看到过这些运河。

So he had seen them.

嗯。

Mhmm.

他曾经相信它们的存在。

He believed in them.

但随着时间推移，他开始怀疑自己的眼睛是否在欺骗他。

But over time, he started to wonder if in fact his eyes were playing tricks on him.

因此，在1909年，当火星和地球特别接近时，安东尼奥蒂获得了欧洲除巴黎外最大的望远镜的使用权限，在火星最接近地球的几天里对火星进行了观测。

And so in nineteen o nine, when Mars and Earth came especially close together, Antoniotti gained access to the largest telescope in Europe outside Paris to examine Mars on some of the days when it's at its very closest approach.

我们再也不会有这样好的机会了，至少十五年内不会。

We're not gonna have another good chance like this for fifteen years.

他运气好得出奇。

And he got incredibly lucky.

其中一个夜晚，当他凝视火星时，巴黎上空的空气异常平静。

One of those nights, he was staring at Mars when the air over Paris was dead still.

这是观测火星的完美条件。

It was perfect conditions for observing the planet.

而火星在望远镜中几乎总是晃动不定，时而清晰时而模糊，

And whereas Mars almost always is this wobbly object in the telescope comes in and out of focus.

但这次火星却纹丝不动。

Mars was sitting dead still.

他能以惊人的清晰度看到火星表面。

He could see the planet's surface with incredible clarity.

这位男子清楚地知道运河应该在哪里，

And here's this man who knew where the canals were supposed to be.

他曾经画过它们。

He had drawn them.

他相信它们的存在。

He believed in them.

它们并不存在，本该看到运河的地方，他却看到了非常自然的地形特征。

They weren't there where he was supposed to see canals instead he saw very natural looking features.

所以对安蒂戈纳蒂来说，这简直是一次启示，他决心要告诉世人真相，并要驳倒洛厄尔。

So Antigoniati, for him it really was like this vision he saw that he was now going to tell the world what was true, and he decided he was going to take Lowell down.

从那以后，洛厄尔的情况开始急剧恶化。

And things begin to really unravel for Lowell after that.

就连曾经支持他的人也迅速疏远了他，包括首次描述火星运河的斯基亚帕雷利。

Even people who supported him began to just drop off very quickly, including Schiaparelli, who was the first person to describe canals on Mars.

没错。

Exactly.

所以，在1910年去世前不久，斯基亚帕雷利说：这些线条可能完全是自然形成的，我认为我们该停止称它们为运河了。

So Schiaparelli, shortly before he died in 1910, he said, you know, these lines may be perfectly natural, and I think we should stop calling them canals.

真惊人。

Wow.

卡米耶·弗拉马里翁，这位启发了洛威尔的法国天文学家，一直相信火星上存在生命，但现在也开始退缩，认为这些线条不过是某种自然特征或幻觉。

Camille Flammerian, the French astronomer who had inspired Lowell and who who continued to believe there was life on Mars was backing away from the idea that these lines were anything more than natural lines of some sort or illusions.

因此，到这个时候，洛威尔几乎是唯一坚持这一观点的人了。

And so Lowell was really kind of the last one holding the back at this point.

他确实是，但他更加固执己见，这正体现了他的固执和自负。

He was, but he, you know, he just dug in his heels even more and which speaks to his stubbornness, to his ego.

我认为，人们有时会认为，你越聪明，就越能接受现实，但实际上，聪明反而可能让你极其擅长自我欺骗。

And I think sometimes there's a sense that the more intelligent you are the more you should be able to accept what's real but in fact intelligence can make you incredibly smart at deluding yourself.

所以，在安东尼奥蒂公布说，通过更先进的望远镜，这些运河消失了之后。

So after Antoniotti came out and said that the canals disappeared through this superior telescope.

洛威尔的一个论点是，这台望远镜太好了。

One of Lowell's arguments was the telescope was too good.

它太强大了，以至于自身的强大反而制造了幻觉。

It was too powerful and that its its own power was creating illusions.

所以，我想我不算剧透地说：火星上根本不存在火星人。

So I I don't think I'm giving anything away to say there are no Martians.

火星上从来就没有运河。

There never were canals on Mars.

但随着这个观点在洛威尔晚年逐渐获得一些认可，他却从未退让一步。

But as that idea started to gain some traction toward the the end of Lowell's life, he never gave an inch.

是的。

Yeah.

他声称，直到临终那天，他都是一个被世人怀疑的受难天才，但终有一天会被证明是正确的。

He claimed to to his dying day that he was this suffering genius who people might doubt, but he would someday be proven right.

我的意思是，很容易把他看作一个怪人和固执的人。

I mean, it's pretty easy to see him as a kook and a stubborn man.

但你知道，从你的书里我了解到，你对洛威尔及其遗产持有一些善意的看法。

But, you know, I gather from your book, you do have charitable opinions of of Lowell and his legacy.

你能描述一下，你对他整体上是怎么看的吗？

Could you describe, like, what what you think of him in the totality?

嗯，说实话，这其实非常有趣。

Well, mean, it's actually it's really interesting.

当我开始写这本书时，我以为自己在写一个警示故事，因为事实上，如今人们提到火星运河时，通常都把它视为科学史上的一大错误。

When I went into writing this book, I thought that I was writing a cautionary tale because, in fact, to the extent people know about the canals of Mars today, it's generally remembered as one of the great blunders of science.

嗯。

Mhmm.

确实如此。

And it was.

这是一个关于我们如何因渴望真相而欺骗自己的故事。

It's a story about how we can fool ourselves into believing things that aren't true because we wish they were true.

但它实际上也是一个非常鼓舞人心的故事，因为洛厄尔确实做了很多好事。

But it actually is also a very inspiring tale because Lowell did a lot of good.

想象力很重要，而洛厄尔在这方面极为丰富。

Imagination is important, and Lowell had that in spades.

他确实推动了人们去探索火星上究竟发生了什么。

And he really did push people to try to answer the question about what's going on on Mars.

他确实做到了。

And he really did.

他激励了那个时代的孩子们对太空产生兴趣。

He inspired the children of that era to get excited about outer space.

我的意思是，即使在今天，科学家之间也存在某种分歧。

I mean, it's actually it's a kind of a divide among scientists even today.

一类人非常保守，认为自己的职责是以客观的方式收集数据。

You've got those who are very conservative, feel their job is to collect data in a very objective way.

另一类人则希望利用这些数据，想象它们如何共同构成一个宏大的理论。

And then you've got those who wanna take the data and imagine how it all fits together into some grand theory.

这两种方式在科学中都非常重要。

And both are really important in science.

你需要收集者，也需要梦想家——那些想象真相的人。

You need the collectors and you need the dreamers, the those who imagine what's true.

所以我认为，科学中的想象力与畅想可能存在的事物、并对之感到兴奋之间，有一条微妙的界限，但关键是要知道何时该退后，当证据根本不支持时。

So I think there's a there's a fine line between imagination in science and dreaming of what might be and getting excited about it, but knowing when to pull back when the evidence just doesn't support that.

而洛厄尔最大的错误就在于，他从来不知道何时该退让。

And that was Lowell's great fault, is that he never knew when to back down.

是的。

Yeah.

我认为，今天的人们回望火星热潮时，可能会觉得当时的人们太过天真和轻信。

I think people today might look back at the Martian craze and think everyone was so naive and gullible.

但当我读你的书时，我不禁想到我们当今的世界，以及我们与科学和真相之间复杂的关系。

But when I read your book, I found myself thinking about our world today and our fraught relationship with science and truth.

那么，洛威尔的故事让你对当今社会有什么思考？

And so what does Lowell's story make you think of in the present day?

太多了。

So much.

《新共和》杂志上有一位哈佛法学学者卡斯·桑斯坦，他写了一篇关于我这本书的精彩文章。

So, it was a very interesting essay written, about my book in the New Republic by the Harvard legal scholar Cass Sunstein.

他在文章中提到了R.F.K. Jr.的名字。

And he brought up the name of RFK Jr.

我认为这两者之间存在有趣的相似之处。

And I think there are interesting parallels there.

你面前这个人来自马萨诸塞州最著名的家族之一，却如今以对疫苗的怀疑态度建立了自己的声誉。

Here you have someone from one of the most famous families in Massachusetts who has now built a reputation around skepticism on vaccines.

科学界大多数人认为这纯属胡说八道。

Most in the scientific community think this is bunk.

引发这一切的研究——声称疫苗与自闭症有关——已被证实是欺诈性的。

The study that started this all, that said there was a link between vaccines and autism has been shown to have been fraudulent.

然而，RFK Jr. 却将自己的身份建立在这一观点之上。

And yet, RFK Jr.

他让许多人觉得他非常有口才、有魅力，而且，我无法揣测他内心的真实想法，但我认为可以将他与佩西瓦尔·洛厄尔相提并论：洛厄尔出身于马萨诸塞州显赫家族，迫切需要证明自己是个重要人物，他的方式就是提出火星上存在生命的理论；即使人们不断质疑，他也不肯退让半步，因为那会彻底摧毁他的自尊。

Has built his identity around this idea.

他让许多人觉得他非常有口才、有魅力，而且，我无法揣测他内心的真实想法，但我认为可以将他与佩西瓦尔·洛厄尔相提并论：洛厄尔出身于马萨诸塞州显赫家族，迫切需要证明自己是个重要人物，他的方式就是提出火星上存在生命的理论；即使人们不断质疑，他也不肯退让半步，因为那会彻底摧毁他的自尊。

And he's a lot of people find him very articulate, charismatic, and again, I can't speak for what's going on inside his head but I think one can see parallels to Percival Lowell from a prominent Massachusetts family, had a lot needed to prove that he was an important person, His way of doing it was this theory about life on Mars, and even as people tried to chip away at it, he was unwilling to give an inch because it would have just crushed his ego.

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是，还有一种强迫性的行为：这些最富有、最特权的内部人士，却把自己塑造成反叛正统的局外人。

I mean, there's also this compulsion of having these ultimate wealthy privileged insiders casting themselves as renegade outsiders to orthodoxy.