马克·安德森谈创业时机

这并不是说每个初创公司都应该成为AI公司或其他什么，但确实存在这种令人难以置信的新工具可供使用。一个普遍的事实是，大型企业、行业巨头很难应对这些平台变革。有时他们能成功应对，但很多时候他们确实举步维艰。因此，当这类变革发生时，正是初创企业挑战行业巨头的最佳机会。

This is not saying that every startup should be an AI startup or whatever, but there is this incredible new tool that can be used. And it's just sort of general fact that big companies, big incumbents have a very hard time reacting to these platform changes. Sometimes they pull it off, but a lot of times they really struggle. And so it's sort of the the best possible opportunity for a start up going up against an incumbent is when there's this kind of shift happening.

如果现在正是几十年来创办公司的最佳时机呢？在本期节目中，取自Speedrun——一个由a16z支持的为期三个月的加速器项目，旨在帮助创始人快速行动——马克·安德森与Games的普通合伙人乔纳森·赖一起，论证我们正进入一个一代人难得一遇的创业窗口期。从AI的爆炸性崛起到全球政策的转变，马克剖析了为何未来四年为创始人提供了罕见而紧迫的机遇，以及抓住时机的企业家与错失良机者之间的区别。让我们深入探讨。提醒一下，此处内容仅供信息参考，不应视为法律、商业、税务或投资建议，也不应用于评估任何投资或证券，且不针对任何a16z基金的现有或潜在投资者。

What if right now is the best time in decades to start a company? In this episode, taken from Speedrun, a three month accelerator powered by a 16 z designed to help founders move fast, Marc Andreessen joins Games general partner Jonathan Lai to make the case that we're entering a once in a generation window for builders. From the explosive rise of AI to shifting global policies, Marc breaks down why the next four years presents a rare and urgent opportunity for founders and what separates the entrepreneurs who seize the moment from those who miss it. Let's get into it. As a reminder, the content here is for informational purposes only, should not be taken as legal business, tax, or investment advice, or be used to evaluate any investment or security, and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a sixteen z fund.

请注意，a16z及其关联公司可能在本播客讨论的公司中持有投资。更多详情，包括我们的投资链接，请参见a16z.com/disclosures。

Please note that a sixteen z and its affiliates may also maintain investments in the companies discussed in this podcast. For more details, including a link to our investments, please see a 16z.com forward slash disclosures.

你认为像史蒂夫·乔布斯那样，创始人具备多少争议性或者说敢于公开对抗和异议的特质是必要的？

How much do you think disagreeability or just the ability to sort of fight and sort of disagree publicly is a necessary trait for founders as exemplified by Steve Jobs?

是的。先从史蒂夫说起，我认识他。史蒂夫可以说是人类历史上最具争议性的人物之一。他会为了你面前杯子的形状跟你争论不休，几乎什么事都要争辩。

Yeah. So start with Steve, who I knew. So Steve is one of the most disagreeable people in the history of humankind. You know, Steve would disagree with you over the shape of the glass on the table in front of you. Like, he was gonna argue about everything.

这正是他许多天才想法的来源——他绝不轻易接受现状。埃隆·马斯克称之为'第一性原理思维'，史蒂夫也深谙此道。这其中蕴含了许多天才之处。但如果你读过关于史蒂夫的书籍或听过相关故事，基本上会听到两种版本：一种说他是个圣人，各方面都完美无缺，这某种程度上是事实。

So it's where a lot of the genius came from, which is he was just not going to take the status quo for granted under any circumstances. Elon uses the term first principles thinking, and Steve had a lot of that as well. So there's a lot of genius in there. But if you read the books on Steve or you hear the stories, there's basically two stories about Steve you hear. One is that he was a saint and he was perfect in all regards, which is somewhat true.

另一种说法则是他像个咆哮的疯子，会在电梯里对人吼叫，在会议上解雇员工，做出各种令人发指的行为——就像天使与魔鬼的结合体。在我看来，根据我的观察以及与他长期共事者的描述，真相介于两者之间：他对任何非一流的工作成果完全零容忍。如果你能提供顶尖水准的工作，在自己的领域出类拔萃、极度勤奋、掌控所有细节、清楚自己在做什么且表现卓越，那么他会是你遇到过的最佳经理人和CEO。与他密切合作过的人常说：'在他手下工作期间，我做出了职业生涯中最出色的成果。'

But the other story that you hear is basically he was like a screaming lunatic, and he would just run around and yell at people in elevators and fire people in meetings and just was like, you know, off you know, some people have all kinda awful horrible things. It's like angel devil kind of thing. And I think on this, I think the reality was somewhere in the middle, at least what I saw and what I heard from people who worked with him for a very long time, was basically he was just like absolutely intolerant of anything less than first class work. If you brought him first class work and if you were top in your field and super diligent and on top of everything and had all the details figured out and knew what you were doing and were really good, he was like the best manager you were ever gonna work with and the best CEO you were ever gonna work with. And the thing that comes up when people talk about who worked with him closely is I did the best work of my life working for him.

对吧？部分原因在于他真正欣赏并理解卓越工作的品质，且绝不接受低于此标准的表现，这意味着周围每个人也必须达到这一高度。这就是他在绩效管理上的态度——每个人都必须做出顶尖成果，否则就得离开。正因如此，世界上最优秀的人才都热爱这里，因为他们与全球顶尖者共事。

Right? And part of that is because he really appreciated, understood the quality of great work, and he didn't tolerate anything less than that, which meant that everybody around you also hit that bar. That's sort of his approach with performance management is everybody's going to be doing top end work. If not, they're not gonna be here. As a consequence, the best people in the world are going to love being here because they're surrounded by the best people in the world.

顺带一提，这也是埃隆共有的特质。那些关于他在会议上咆哮或当场开除人的传闻，其实都是因为工作未达一流水平。要么是原本有能力却不够努力的人，要么是根本不胜任需要另谋出路的人。但核心在于——这也是人们如此敬爱他的原因——关键在于：为他工作期间，我做出了职业生涯中最出色的成果。

And by the way, that's also something, of course, that Elon shares. And so the stories that you hear about the screaming or firing people in meetings or whatever, it was always a side effect of it's not first class work. And it's either somebody who really should have been able to do it, who didn't, but who didn't work hard enough, or it's somebody who was just not capable of doing it, right, who needed to go find something else. But the result, the core thing always and this is why there was so much love for him, Right? Is the core thing was I do the best work of my life working for him.

话虽如此，史蒂夫本人也在成长。他的职业生涯仿佛经历了时间膨胀效应。人们总认为他一手打造了今天众所周知的苹果公司，但事实上这经历了漫长过程，期间充满曲折。

Having said that, also, Steve himself matured. Right? And his career kind of got time dilation kinda happens. And so you kinda think, well, Steve built Apple, the company that we all know and love today. And it's like, well, yes, but it took a very long time, and there were twists and turns along the way.

其中最大的转折点莫过于他被解雇。1976年他与沃兹尼亚克创立公司，开发了Apple I、Apple II，还推出了Lisa电脑——这个项目最终失败了。

And the big twist and turn, of course, is he got fired. Right? So he started the company in '76 with Steve Wozniak. You know, he built Apple one, Apple two. He built a lease up actually, which which failed.

顺便说，并非所有乔布斯的项目都成功。他从失败中学到很多，只是如今这些失败已被遗忘（维基百科仍有记载）。Lisa电脑先于麦金塔问世，却彻底失败。

That was the other thing, by the way, not every Steve Jobs project succeeded. Right? And he learned a lot from the failures. And now everybody's forgotten the failures, but you can read about them on Wikipedia. The Lisa was before the Macintosh and was a complete failure.

后来麦金塔开始崭露头角，但在真正腾飞前，他错误地任命了CEO，导致公司内部叛乱而被驱逐。随后十年他离开苹果——正是在这期间我结识了他，当时他经营NeXT公司。NeXT堪称彻底溃败，经历了多年煎熬。

But then the Macintosh started to work. But before the Macintosh really took off, he brought in the wrong CEO, and then there was a revolt inside the company, and he got fired. And then he spent ten years out of the company, right, which is actually when I got to know him is when he was off doing Next. Next was like a complete wipeout. Like, it was years of real pain and agony.

他还有个无人理解的小副业——那家名为皮克斯的图形公司。关键点在于：当他1997年重返苹果时（约离开十二年后），据更了解他的人说，他真正学会如何成为伟大CEO不是在苹果，而是在NeXT。那十二年艰难岁月里，没有鲜花掌声，没有点石成金的神话，产品也始终未能打开市场。

And he had this little side project nobody understood, which is this little graphics company, Pixar, it turned out. Anyway, the point is by the time he came back into Apple in, like, '97, I think maybe been out for, like, twelve years. And, again, what people who knew him better than I did said, he learned how to actually be a great CEO, not at Apple, but at Next because he spent twelve years actually doing it the hard way where he wasn't being showered with praise. He didn't have the magic touch. The product fundamentally didn't take.

他不得不，就像我们说的，现在转向。这很好，因为我们有了这个新术语‘转向’。我们其实应该说搞砸了。你知道，接下来你必须转向。顺便说一句，我在92年89年上大学的时候。

He had to, like, as we say, now pivot. It's good because we have this great new term pivot. We should just say fuck up. You have to you know, pivot in next. By the way, when I was in college in '92 '89.

89年我进入伊利诺伊大学时，我们是NeXT电脑的早期使用者之一。NEXT是公司名。那台电脑叫NeXTcube，算是麦金塔的后继产品。实际上就是一台价值1.5万美元的麦金塔。它非常现代，不仅是图形界面，还完整搭载Unix系统，这在当时的台式机中极为罕见。

When I got '89, I got Illinois in '89, we were one of the early adopters of the NeXT computer. NEXT was the name of the company. It was called the NeXTcube, was the computer, and it was sort of the post Macintosh. And so it was, literally, was, a $15,000 Macintosh. And it was, like, fully modern, not only graphical, but it was, like, full Unix at a time when that was really unusual for a desktop computer.

它拥有当时最先进的技术，配备了第一台CD-ROM驱动器。还有个经典故事——它是个完美的立方体，精确的12英寸立方体，12×12×12。NeXT的设计师们在设计时有个著名轶事。

It had this incredible state of the art. It had the first CD ROM drive. Then, And right, one of great stories is it was a perfect cube. It was a perfect 12 inch cube, 12 by 12 by 12. And there's a famous story of his designers at NeXT when they were designing it.

他们最初提交的是基于制造成本优化的帕累托最优硬件设计，尺寸是12×12×13英寸。乔布斯说：你们回去重做，必须做成完美立方体。设计师们表示：史蒂夫，这会令成本翻倍。而他回答：我他妈不在乎。

They came in with a sort of optimal Pareto optimal hardware design built for manufacturing cost optimization, which was 12 inches by 12 inches by 13 inches. And he said, you. Go back and make it a perfect cube. And they're like, Steve, that's gonna double the cost. And he's like, I don't fucking care.

必须做成立方体。于是最终产品就是个完美立方体。不过它运行缓慢，操作起来像在糖浆里行走般迟滞。

Make it a cube. And so it was like a perfect cube. It was slowish. Like, it took forever. It was like walking through molasses to use the thing.

产品彻底失败，无人问津。公司转向软件领域，软件同样无人青睐。关键是，那段时期极其艰难，他必须让公司的每个环节都运转起来。

Completely flopped. Nobody wanted it. Pivoted the company to software. Nobody wanted the software. Anyway, the point is, like, that was really hard, and he had to make every part of the company work.

他不得不通过艰难的方式寻求优化方案，在长达十二年的失败中维持团队。但人们说，正是苹果第一阶段积累的惊人增长与创新能力，加上荒野岁月磨练出的管理才能，使得97年回归苹果时他已兼具两者。那时的他已是卓越CEO，但若未经历艰难时期，或许永远不会成为我们所知的史蒂夫·乔布斯。

He had to try to figure out how to optimize it the hard way. He had to retain a team through twelve years of basically failure. But basically, people say is he had this incredible growth and innovation skill set from Apple phase one, then he had an incredible management skill set from the sort of wilderness years. So by the time he came back to Apple in '97, he was both. And he was also at that point a great CEO, but he maybe not would have ever become the Steve Jobs that we know had he not gone through the hard period.

所以你们讨论的一大潜流是关于市场时机的概念。对吧？比如，何时才是进入某个市场的合适时机？这项技术是否真的准备好面向消费者或企业版本？回想九十年代，你不想成为pets.com，但TUI最终做到了，对吧？

So a big undercurrent to what you've been discussing is the concept of like market timing. Right? Like, what's the right time to sort of enter a market? Is the technology truly ready for sort of the consumer or the enterprise version of that technology? And so thinking back to like the nineties, you wanted to be not pets.com, but TUI eventually did around, right?

就像那些后来在十月出现的公司。如果你现在是个建设者，正在选择当前要开发的市场，你会如何判断什么是合适的时机？某些市场是否还为时过早，诸如此类的问题？

Like, some of these companies that came October later. If you're a builder right now and you're selecting, like, markets right now to build in, how would you think about what the right time is? Is it too early for certain markets and so on and so forth?

是的。我的一个观察可能听起来疯狂，但我认为可能是真的，那就是实际上所有的想法都可能是好的。那些知道自己在做什么的合格创始人，我认为通常对他们追求的机会判断是正确的。如果你是一个合格的创始人，做你正在做的事，你应该对这个领域有深入的理解，当你思考‘现在这项技术使得这个用例成为可能，我们可以打造一个实现它的产品，人们会需要它’时，我认为这种判断的准确率几乎是100%。

Yeah. So one of my observations, it sounds crazy, but I think might be true, is I think actually all the ideas might be good. Qualified founders who know what they're doing, I think, generally are right about the opportunity that they're going after and that it's just okay. If you're like a qualified founder doing what you're doing, you should be so deep in the domain that when you think about, okay, this technology now makes this use case possible, and we can build a product that does that, people are gonna want that. I think the accuracy rate on that is almost a 100%.

问题在于时机，在实践中，过早等同于错误，对吧？你在模式中可以看到这一点，基本上就是每当有一个一夜成名的成功案例，比如一家科技公司突然大放异彩，做得非常好，你会发现基本上有一系列公司试图在五年前做同样的事情但失败了，再五年前又失败了，再五年前又失败了。我提到电子商务和手机的例子，第一部真正的智能手机实际上是在1987年推出的。

The problem is the timing, and early is the same as being wrong, right, in practice. Right? And you see this in the pattern, which is basically is anytime there's an overnight success, like a technology company that just, like, lights the world on fire is doing great, what you find is basically there were a set of companies that try to do that same thing five years earlier and failed, five years before that and failed, five years before that and failed, I before that and failed. Often goes back by the way, I mentioned the ecommerce and the phone thing. The first actual smartphone came out in 1987.

哇，对吧？所以在iPhone之前，有整整二十年的智能手机尝试都失败了。你知道，二十年。对吧？

Wow. Right? And so there were literally twenty years of failed attempts to do smartphones until the iPhone. You know, twenty years. Right?

所以我认识很多在iPhone之前尝试做智能手机的创始人，他们都是非常、非常聪明能干的人。许多人在其他领域非常成功或后来非常成功。只是时机太早了。技术还没有准备好。那么为什么这很难？

And so I knew many of the founders trying to do smartphones before the iPhone, they were very, very smart capable people. Many of them very successful in other domains or very successful later on. It was just too early. The technology wasn't ready yet. And then why is this hard?

基本上有两个原因。一是因为要成为一个成功的创始人，从定义上讲，你必须生活在未来。对吧？所以你必须设想一个尚未存在的世界，在那里你正在构建的东西是每个人都会使用的。而你周围的人还看不到这一点，因为它还不存在。

It's hard for basically two reasons. One is because to be a successful founder, by definition, you have to live in the future. Right? So you have to envision a world that doesn't exist yet in which the thing that you're building is something that everybody 's going to use. And, like, people around you can't see that yet because it doesn't exist yet.

于是，你仿佛看到了一个尚未存在的世界图景，它可能是对的也可能不对，可能现在发生也可能不会。另一关键在于世界也有发言权。我认为一个非常有趣的概念性问题是：一方面是你试图在世界上实现某事，让世界理解、愿意行动或购买；但另一方面存在某种社会学现象——世界何时真正准备好接受新想法？这里还有件令人惊叹的事。

And so, like, you see a vision of the world that doesn't yet exist, and that may be right and may not be right, or it may happen now and it may not happen now. And then the other thing about it is the world gets a vote. And, you know, I think one of the really interesting kind of conceptual questions is there's, like, the push side of you trying to make something happen in the world and trying to get the world to understand something and wanna do something and buy something. But then there's, like, some sociological thing on the other side, which is, okay, when is the world actually ready for the new idea? Here's another just, like, really amazing thing.

有人成功让Lomma的小型版本在Windows 98上运行了。他们启动了一台1998年的戴尔台式机，装了全新的Windows 98系统，居然跑起了Lomma。这意味着那些老古董电脑本可以一直很智能的，真的可以。要知道我们早就有神经网络技术了。

Somebody got one of the small versions of Lomma to run on Windows 98. They booted up, like, a literally a Dell desktop computer from, I think, 1998 with a fresh copy of Windows '90 eight, and they got Lomma running on it. And so, like, all of those old literally could have been smart this whole time. They really could have been. And, like, we had neural networks.

对吧？当时很多人研究AI。但理论上，过去近三十年我们本可以用英语和电脑对话的，现在才明白。

Right? I mean, there were lots of people working on AI. Yeah. But, like, we could have been talking to our computers in English for the last, basically, almost thirty years. We now know.

疯狂

Crazy

平行历史。

alternate history.

疯狂的平行历史。可我们没做到。八十年代有过AI创业潮，那时很多聪明人认为时机已到。五十年代也有人这么想。

Crazy alternate history. And, like, we didn't. There was an AI startup boom in the eighties. There were a lot of really smart people in the eighties who thought this was all gonna happen then. There were people in the fifties who thought it was gonna happen then.

所以时机判断极其困难。从创业实践来说，你只有有限时间来验证成败，基本上就是五年左右。如果初创公司前五年没起色，成功率就会很低，因为这本来就非常艰难。

And so this timing thing is just, incredibly difficult. And then just practically speaking, as a startup, you only have so long to either prove it, right, or not. And basically, you know, give or take five years total. Right? If you don't get traction in the startup in the first five years, your odds of success are very low just because it's very hard

维系团队的凝聚力。你正在与时间赛跑。

to hold the team together. You're in a race against time.

是啊。你正在与时间赛跑。最终你会陷入这种令人沮丧的境地——我有很多朋友就是这样，他们在2010年2月创办公司，以为时机成熟，结果公司在2014年2月倒闭。而2015年创立的某家公司却一炮而红。你只能干瞪眼，真他妈糟心。

Yeah. You're in a race against time. Then you end up in this frustrating you know, I have a lot of friends who've ended up in this frustrating circumstance where you started a company in 02/2010. You thought now was the time your company failed in 02/2014, and then a company started in 2015 that just hit it and went. And you're just, fuck.

对吧？所以时机把握特别难。我认为除了所谓的'创业判断力'这个关键因素外，时机问题根本没有标准答案。这是创始人必须认真思考和努力把握的重要课题。说到底，这就像是在做某种调和。

Right? And so the timing part of it is very hard. I don't think there's an actual answer to the timing thing other than I think that's a really key part of what they call entrepreneurial judgment. Like, I think that's a big thing that the founder has to really work hard about and think hard about. And again, it's this thing of, like, reconciling.

我生活在未来，能预见趋势，但真能把它变成符合用户期待的产品吗？世界是否具备了足够的前提条件让人们接受它？说实话，我现在甚至不再试图预测这些了——比如开会时，我就默认创始人比我们更可能正确。顺便说，另一个必然推论是：如果某件事能成，你总会觉得自己入场太晚。作为创始人，你总会想'要是早两年创业就好了'。

I live in the future, and I can see it happening, but, like, can I actually deliver it in the form of a product that actually works the way people expect? And then is there enough precondition in the world such that they're gonna want to actually do this thing? And I just, like well, I mean, these these also have tell you, like, I don't I don't even I don't even try to forecast these things myself anymore, like, meetings. I I just I just figured, like, let's just assume the founder is more likely to be right than we are just because, like, By the way, the the other corollary to this is, if if if if it's going to work, it almost always feels like you're too late. So as a founder, almost always feels like, I wish I I should have started this company.

要是早两年创办这家公司就好了。对吧？因为最终你会陷入这种境地：天啊，风口就要来了，市场即将爆发，可我的产品还没完全准备好。真见鬼。

If I if only I started this company two years earlier. Right? Because because it's like you you're end up in this situation where you're like, oh my god. Like, it's gonna happen, and the market's coming, and it's gonna happen, but, like, my product's not quite ready yet. And, like, oh, shit.

时间所剩无几了。对吧？至少我的经验是，当下感觉糟透了，好像你在辜负这个时代，但这其实是积极的信号。

Like, I'm running out of time. Right? And and, like, my experience at least is that that's a very it feels terrible in the moment because it feels like you're not rising to the occasion, but that's the that's actually the positive sign.

当思考AI及其在叙事创作和整个娱乐产业的潜力时，最令你兴奋的是什么？

What excites you the most when you think about AI and sort of what it can be to create a storytelling and just the entertainment industry at large?

从理想层面来说，你知道，有机会对整个流程进行彻底革新。它会学习你的习惯，适应你，为你打造最佳体验，在易用性与学习难度之间取得完美平衡，同时提供最具娱乐性的场景——那些人们愿意投入数千小时游玩的顶级游戏。而且，底层商业模式也会非常出色，因为你无需承担人工内容创作的全部成本。构建这样的引擎后，它就能永久运转，这实在令人振奋。此外，还能创建充满超级智能体的虚拟世界，这些由非凡人格填充的虚拟世界。

So aspirationally, the you know, there's opportunity for, like, a complete reinvention of the entire process of It's gonna learn from you, adapt to you, and make you the best possible experience, you know, with the best possible, you know, the trade off between, you know, the ease and difficulty learning curve and and the most possible entertaining scenario for you and, you know, the best games people will play for, you know, many thousands of hours. And and then by the way, the the businesses can be really amazing underneath this because they don't you you don't bear all the cost of of of manual content creation. And so, you know, you you build an engine like this and it it runs, you know, it it runs forever. And so, like, that that's super exciting. And then, you know, being able to have virtual worlds with, like, you know, super smart, you know, lots of, you know, populated by, you know, these incredible personalities.

这完全是种全新的惊人叙事方式。虽然我们正在探索阶段，但我们对此深信不疑。我认为这一切终将实现，而且会变得无比精彩。不过我要说，我正通过我九岁孩子的视角观察这一切。

You know, it's just a whole new amazing kind of storytelling. So, like, I know we're and we're big believers in all this. Like, I I think that's all gonna happen. It's gonna be it's gonna be it's gonna be fantastic. I will say I am also seeing this through the eyes of my nine year old.

所以我正通过我九岁孩子重新经历了解游戏的过程，以玩家身份跟上时代。有几个关键发现：其一，《我的世界》显然具有不朽魅力——他爱这款游戏胜过生命本身。

So I'm regoing through the, you know, the process of learning about gaming and coming up to speed as a gamer through my my nine year old. And so couple couple key lessons. One is, well, Warcraft apparently is or not work. Minecraft is immortal. So, like, he like, he loves Minecraft more than, like, life itself.

这说明开发者做对了某些事。有趣的是，至少九岁孩子根本不在意画面精度，他对画质毫不在乎。《我的世界》《罗布乐思》这类画风的游戏对他们来说就很棒。他刚发现IO游戏（不知道大家是否听说过），还接触了人生第一款第一人称射击游戏，这让我兴奋不已。

And so that like, whatever what whatever those guys did is just has worked. And and by the way, really interesting thing, like, the nine year olds, at least the nine year olds, they don't care at all about visual fidelity visual quality. Like, he could not give a And so Minecraft Minecraft and Roblox and games that look like that are are fantastic. And he just discovered his I just learned about IO games, if people have heard of those. And so he just discovered he he just discovered his first first person shooter, which just thrills thrills me to no end.

游戏名叫《蛋壳 shock》，本质上是《反恐精英》的变体，但角色是拟人化的鸡蛋。想象一下：全套军事装备，击中玩家时对方会爆裂成蛋花四溅。

It's it's called, Shellshockers. And it's basically, it's Counter Strike but with anthropomorphic eggs. Oh, wow. So it's like full military hardware. And then when you shoot another player, he explodes in a shower of yolk.

这完全是款浏览器游戏，支持多人联机，却能穿透所有学校防火墙，在Chromebook上运行流畅。他现在非常沮丧——

And it's it's a completely browser based game. Right? It's multiplayer, but it's all browser based, and so it punches through all the school firewalls. And so the and it runs it runs great on Chromebooks. He's he's very frustrated.

因为我们收走笔记本电脑（他目前被禁止使用），他就拼命尝试在Kindle的网页浏览器上运行游戏。这是他现阶段的人生主要挫折。我们告诉他这是好事，因为如果真能运行，我们就得没收Kindle了。观察他这些行为时，当ChatGPT问世那刻，我突然有种顿悟：哇...

He can't get it. When we take away his laptop he's currently on a laptop break. When we take away his laptop, he tries very hard to get it working on the Kindle on the web browser on his Kindle. That's his main form of frustration in his life right now is that is that and we tell him it's good that it's good that Shellshakras doesn't run on the web browser on the Kindle because if it did, we'd have to take away the Kindle. So but anyway, I I watched him doing this, and then and then, you know, and then I I had this moment when Chad GPT came out, where I was like, wow.

这太不可思议了。你知道吗，我迫不及待想给我孩子看这个，感觉就像普罗米修斯把火种从天上带给我家小孩。就像我在带给他人工智能，它将成为一个导师和教练，永远陪伴他，和他对话，他可以提问，AI会教他所有感兴趣的东西。我把它装在他笔记本上演示给他看——你输入问题，它就会回答。我觉得这大概是我能为孩子做的最棒的事，就是赋予他这种能力。

This is amazing. And, you know, I I can't wait to show this to my kid, I'm gonna you know, felt like that felt like Prometheus bringing fire down from the heavens to my to my kid. It's like I'm bringing him, you know, AI, and it's gonna be this tutor and coach, and it's gonna be with him forever, it's gonna talk to him, and he can ask you questions, and it'll teach him about all these things he's interested in. And I I I install it on his laptop and show him. You type in a question, it'll it'll answer question, you know, and and I'm I'm like, this is, like, the best thing I could ever possibly do for my kid is give him this capability.

结果你知道他看着我，一脸'所以呢？'的表情。我当时就...不是啊！这可是花了八十年神经网络、训练数据各种技术才实现的，它能创造内容啊！结果他说：'丹尼斯，这就是台电脑。要是它答不上问题，还能干嘛？'

And, you know, he looks at me and he's like, so? And I was like, no. It's like, it took eighty years with the neural networks and the this and the training data and the whole thing, and it, like, does the thing and it makes up. And he's like, Dennis, it's a computer. Like, if it doesn't answer your questions, like, what would it do?

你懂这种感觉吧？

You know?

在这样的背景下，新政府、新政策、新技术，还有潜在的新文化运动，我们确实处在某个历史节点。听你之前提过，这可能是个黄金时代的开端，对美国乃至世界都是。2025年的初创公司该如何把握这个时机？

Against this this backdrop, right, like, we've got new administration, new policies, new technologies, sort of new sort of cultural movement potentially. It feels like we're very much at a moment in time. I've heard you described it before. It's like we could be in the precipice of literally a golden age, right, for America and for the world. What are some ways that startups today, like in 2025, could be thinking about capitalizing just on on this moment.

对吧？

Right?

没错。我认为至少未来四年都是大好时机。现在绝对是创业的最佳时刻——就像我之前说的，我们的核心理念是：平台变革期就是创业的黄金窗口。当然不是所有创业都要做AI，但这个强大的新工具确实能带来无限可能。

Yeah. So look, I think for at least the next four years, I think it's, you know, basically blue skies. And so I think that, you know, now now is definitely the time to build. You know, the you know, we as I said earlier, like our our whole theory of all this is that the prime time for startups is when there's a platform change. By the way, this is not saying that every startup should be an AI startup or whatever, but like there is this incredible new tool, you know, that can be used.

再说个普遍规律：行业巨头很难适应平台变革。偶尔有成功转型的，但多数都举步维艰。所以当这种变革发生时，正是初创企业挑战巨头的最佳机会。而现在，我们正处在这样的变革中。

And it's just, again, it's just sort of general fact that big companies, big incumbents have a very hard time reacting to these platform changes. Sometimes they pull it off, but a lot of times they really struggle. And so it's sort of the best possible opportunity for a startup is going up against an incumbent is when there's this kind of shift happening. So I think that's happening. Yeah.

我认为美国将迎来四年风平浪静的发展期。要知道，世界其他地区正处于一种奇怪的状态。欧盟几乎已经将人工智能定为非法，这真是令人匪夷所思——他们的高级官员一年前公开宣称，'既然我们意识到无法成为AI创新领域的全球领导者，那么我们就将成为AI监管的全球领导者'。这种话恐怕只有脱离民选的官僚才说得出口，完全活在自己的幻想中。

There's gonna be four years clear clear sailing, I think, The US. You know, the rest of the world's in a funny state. You know, the EU has all but made AI illegal at this point. They they literally this is the amazing stuff. They literally say public they their senior officials literally said publicly a year ago.

他们通过了这项极其严苛的AI法案，导致现在连大型AI实验室都不敢在欧盟推出新产品，因为根本找不到合法合规的途径。英国在这方面反而倒退了——本该成为开放包容的避风港，却基本照搬了欧盟那套糟糕的监管体系，看起来正在这条歧路上越走越远。

They're like, well, we've realized that you cannot be the world's leader in AI innovation, and so, therefore, we will be the world's leader in AI regulation, which is one of those things that I think you only say if you're an unelected bureaucrat, Completely lost in your own thoughts. But, you know, they they passed this very draconian AI law. As a consequence, even the big AI labs now are not launching new AI products in in the EU, because they can't figure out how to do it legally. The UK actually backslid on this. They they they should UK should be a haven for for openness, and instead, they they basically have matched the EU, on on on bad bad regulations and seem like they're going sideways on that.

这个问题至关重要，因为美国的主要贸易伙伴实际上是中国，而欧洲又是中国的主要贸易伙伴。西方世界的全球化基础本质上是建立在美欧经济关系之上的。放眼全球，如今每个角落都在开放——世界各地的年轻人都在上网，他们能接触到所有这些技术。

So so and and this is important because, like, the the main US trading partners are actually our main our main trading partners at China, main trading partner is Europe. Like, the the the the the the globalization is sort of based fundamentally, you know, in the West is based on the economic relationship between The US and Europe. And then, yeah, I mean, look, you know, the entire world is is opening up. I mean, you know, kids everywhere are now online. They have access to all this.

他们渴望运用这些技术，想要参与建设，希望加入这些科技公司。虽然部分人才通过移民实现流动，但更多是通过网络连接——现在人人都在线，全球各地都蕴藏着人才。

They they want to use all this technology. They wanna build it. You know, they wanna be part of these companies. Some of that obviously happens through, you know, migration, but a lot of that happens through just like everybody's online now. And so there's, you know, talent all over the world.

但愿互联网本身以及总体经济秩序能保持足够开放，让世界各地的人们能够携手共创。当然。

And, you know, hopefully, the the the Internet itself, you know, and general economic arrangements stay free enough where people all over the world can come together and build things. Sure.

这确实令人振奋，我们正处在独一无二的创业时代。看来这是个完美的收尾时刻。谢谢迈克和杰森，请大家给他们掌声。

That's very exciting. Definitely feels like we're at a unique moment in time to be building. So I think it's a great note to wrap it on. So thank you, Mike and Jason. Let's give them a hand.

很好，很好。谢谢各位。这种事真能把人逼疯。

Good. Good. Good. Thanks, everybody. Like, it just drives you nuts.

对吧？顺便问一下，如果这是成人观众可以吗？我能说脏话吗？在场的各位都超过18岁了吗？这很难判断。

Right? And by the way, is it okay if this is an adult audience? Is it can I can I swear? Is this everybody is everybody over the age of 18? It's hard to tell.

如果你不到15岁，新事物对你来说就是理所当然的，世界本就这样运转，完全正常。如果你在15到35岁之间，新事物会让人非常兴奋，甚至可能成为职业方向。如果你超过35岁，新事物就显得亵渎神明，违背社会秩序，会摧毁文明。

If you're below the age of 15, it's just whatever the new thing is. It's just the way the world has always worked. It's totally normal. If you're between the ages of 15 to 35, you know, the new thing is very exciting, and you might be able to make a career out of it. If you're above the age of 35, the new thing is unholy, and against the social order, and it's going to destroy civilization.

谢谢

Thanks

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