691: A Menlo Phase

Quran J 提到，那 Studio 呢？

Quran j writes, what about Studio?

既然 Mac Studio 和 Studio Display 已经成为各自产品线的顶级型号，而新款 OLED Max 说不定会叫 MacBook Studio、iMac Studio 之类的。

Given that the Mac Studio and Studio Display are now the top of their respective lines and the new OLED Max could be the MacBook Studio, iMac Studio, etcetera.

另外还有 Creator Studio 这个名字。

See also Creator Studio.

对。

Yeah.

Studio 确实常被用作产品名的后缀，但传闻根本不是关于 Studio 的。

Studio is in the mix as a name suffix, but the rumors aren't about Studio.

所有传闻都集中在 Ultra 上，而且手表也不叫 Apple Watch Studio。

The rumors are all about Ultra, and the the watch is not called the Apple Watch Studio.

我也不太确定。

I I, you know, I I don't know.

但我总觉得，尽管他们最贵的显示器确实叫 Studio，但 Studio 作为高端命名似乎不够格。

I I do feel like Studio is not as good a high end name despite the fact that as he says that, like, their most expensive monitor is called Studio.

他们之前最贵的显示器是Pro Display XDR。

Their previous most expensive monitor was Pro Display XDR.

XDR在显示器领域就像是顶级的存在。

XDR seems to be the ultra of the monitor world.

Mac Studio目前是苹果最高端的电脑。

The Mac Studio is the current top end Mac.

他们不会推出什么Mac Ultra。

They're not gonna make a Mac Ultra.

我不确定。

I don't know.

我只是觉得，相比Ultra，Studio听起来没那么高端。

I just I just don't feel like studio studio seems to me to not be as high end as ultra.

是的。

Yeah.

我同意。

I agree.

然后

And then

有人提到关于iMac Neo，如果你把M系列芯片换成A系列芯片，那不就是Studio Display吗？

writes, regarding an iMac Neo, if you swap out the m series for an a series SOC, isn't that just the studio display?

而且，其实从之前的讨论来看，Studio Display本质上就是一个配了更小、更便宜屏幕的iMac Neo。

And and, actually, also from earlier adds, a studio display would be an easy iMac Neo with a smaller cheaper display panel, of course.

这正是问题所在。

That's the problem.

Studio Display比普通iMac贵太多了，更别说iMac Neo了。

The studio display is so much more expensive than a regular iMac, let alone an iMac Neo.

所以，没错，它本来就用了A系列芯片，价格却大概是普通iMac的三倍。

So, yeah, it does already have an a class SOC and it costs like what, three times as much as a regular iMac.

所以，真要把这个做成Neo版本，难度挺大的。

So really kinda hard to neo that particular one.

顺便说一下，它里面用的A系列芯片，呃，我一时想不起它配了多少内存。

And by the way, the, the a series SOC it has in it just like I'm gonna I forgot how much RAM it has.

我们查了一下，但说实话，这台设备的性能刚好卡在你对Mac的期望边缘。

We looked it up, but like, it it it's it's on the ragged edge of what you would want in a Mac.

所以，要是真把A系列芯片和Studio Display那种昂贵的铝合金机身——哪怕只是普通版的——搭在一起，那也太离谱了。

So it would it would be wild to have an a series SOC and like a, you know, a super expensive, machined aluminum case from the studio display, even the regular studio display.

没错。

Yeah.

这正好说明了问题有多复杂。

That's that shows how tricky it is.

它确实用了A系列芯片，但屏幕、机壳和支架占了大部分成本，价格反而比普通iMac还高。

Like, it does have an a series SOC, but the screen and the case and the stand dominate the price and make it more expensive than an iMac.

本集由Squarespace赞助，这是一站式建站平台，专为帮助你在线脱颖而出、取得成功而设计。

We are sponsored this episode by Squarespace, the all in one website platform designed to help you stand out and succeed online.

无论你是刚起步还是正在扩张业务，Squarespace都能让你在一个平台上完成域名注册、打造专业网站、塑造品牌并实现收款。

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And it's so easy, you don't have to be a nerd, and you don't have to really spend a lot of time, honestly, running your website.

你直接动手做就行。

You can just do it.

如果你不懂技术，有人找你帮忙建网站，你直接推荐他们去用 Squarespace 就行。

So if you aren't a nerd, if somebody comes to you who isn't a nerd and wants you to make a website for them, you can just send them to Squarespace.

这样他们就不用麻烦你了。

And then they don't have to go through you.

你也不用把这事当成门槛卡着。

You don't have to gatekeep it.

他们自己就能搞定。

They can be empowered.

这系统真的太棒了。

It's an amazing system.

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So they support everything that your business might need from things like analytics and email campaigns, all the way up to getting paid, having all the most advanced checkout options, payment methods, etcetera, all supported.

如果你卖实体商品，他们还提供销售税自动计算、物流对接等功能。

If you have physical goods, they have things like sales tax integration and shipping integrations and things like that.

真的很棒。

It's amazing.

你可以直接在 Squarespace 上注册域名。

You can start with a domain there with Squarespace domain.

从头到尾，他们都能帮你搞定。

So really from start to finish, they have you covered.

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The design is super easy to use.

所有操作都是可视化完成的。

Everything is visual.

他们集成了人工智能来辅助你，但最终呈现的还是你自己的风格。

They have AI integrated where it helps, but it's still your voice at the end of the day.

这是一个非常适合任何人打造优质企业网站的平台。

It's a great platform for anybody to make a great business website.

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Now, you can see for yourself by doing their free trial.

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看看它到底有多适合你。

See how well it works for you.

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When you're ready to launch, use offer code ATP to save 10% off your first purchase of a website or domain.

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So once again, squarespace.com/atp for that free trial.

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非常感谢 Squarespace 对我们节目的赞助。

Thank you so much to Squarespace for sponsoring our show.

好吧。

Alright.

咱们聊聊时间机器吧。

Let's talk Time Machine.

上周约翰发了个留言，说你的时间机器备份里有大量小文件，主要是因为 node 的东西。

We had some a one off comment from John last week about how you have a ton of small files in your Time Machine backup, mostly because of node stuff.

约翰提到 node 模块、文件夹这些让时间机器备份变慢，这让我挺意外的。

And John Wilson writes, John's comments about node modules, directories, and so on making Time Machine backups hard raised an eyebrow with me.

你为啥就不排除这类文件夹呢？

Why on earth did you not or would you not exclude fold folders like that?

代码仓库里的 .git 文件夹也是一样。

The same goes for the dot git directory in a repo.

对。

Yeah.

其实把东西从时间机器里排除掉很简单。

So it's pretty easy to exclude things from Time Machine.

我设了个命令行别名来搞定这个。

I've got a command line alias to do it.

我觉得用 TMUtil 就够了。

I think the TMUtil thing will do.

你只要给它加个扩展属性就行。

You just add an extended attribute to it.

根本不用打开时间机器设置，拖来拖去的。

You don't have to, like, open the Time Machine settings and drag it into the thing or whatever.

但我发现，手动操作根本靠不住。

But what I found is doing that manually just it just doesn't happen.

我估计是拉的仓库太多了，随便就克隆一堆东西，反正我这儿有好多，全都被排除了。

Like, I I guess I check out too many repos, casually clone too many things, just it you know, I I have a bunch of them, and they are excluded.

如果你是固定环境，就做两三个项目，每个项目就一个 node_modules 文件夹，都提前排除了，那自然没问题。

If you have if you have, like, a fixed setup where I'm only working on these two projects, and they have two node modules directories, and they're excluded, so everything's fine.

没问题。

Fine.

但这种方式根本不是我平时做事的习惯。

But that's just not the way I tend to work.

更别说现在那些代码助手在后台干的那些事了，到处克隆项目，也不知道扔哪儿了。

Never mind these days what all, like, the coding agents are doing behind the scenes and cloning things to god knows where or whatever.

就连我以前没用AI工具的时候，也经常搞一堆临时文件夹。

Even just my own use before the age of coding, models and stuff like that.

我老是新建一些一次性目录，拉取Git仓库，随便折腾一下，跑个npm install，搞一堆文件夹。

I just found myself making lots of these one off directories, cloning Git repos, playing around with them, you know, doing NPM install and directories.

但说实话，我真希望这些能自动处理，后来我们也收到了一些其他反馈。

But, like, it was just you know, I needed it to be automated into that, and we got some more feedback.

安德鲁·哈撒韦说，他用Asimov来阻止node_modules目录被纳入Time Machine备份。

And then Andrew Hathaway writes, I use Asimov to prevent node modules directories from being included in Time Machine backups.

这是一个开源工具，它自己介绍说，Asimov会扫描你的文件系统，识别常见的依赖目录，比如node_modules，然后自动把它们从Time Machine备份中排除。

This is an open source thing, and it self describes as Asimov scans your file system for known dependency directories, for example, node modules, and excludes them from Time Machine backups.

对。

Yeah.

我觉得得手动运行，不过要搞个自动系统确实挺难的，得实时监控文件系统事件，盯着每一次变动，看有没有出现 node_modules 这样的文件夹。

I think you have to run it manually, but, yeah, an automated system that would just like it's tricky because it would have to drink from, like, the FS events fire hose and, like, see every time something happens and see if there's a node modules in there.

这就是难点所在，尤其是像 .git 这种用来克隆项目的文件夹，还有 node_modules，太容易漏掉了。

Like, that's that's why it's tricky because these are especially like dot git directors for cloning things and node modules.

要一直管好它，全靠自律。

Like, it just to stay on top of it requires, discipline.

就算你努力盯着，不管是手动处理，还是隔一阵子跑个扫描，只要时间机器一启动，发现有个 node_modules 文件夹，它立马就想备份，那之前设好的自动排除就全白搭了。

And even if you do try to stay on top of it, if you're trying to do it like manually or even if you have a scan running every once in while, if a time machine backup starts and it notices your node modules directory, and it's like, now I have to back that up, then over the the automatic excluding thing goes and excludes it.

来不及了。

Too late.

时间机器已经把备份任务启动了，现在正吭哧吭哧地处理两百万个额外文件。

Time Machine's already got its clause into it, now it's grinding away 2,000,000 additional files.

我还真希望 Dropbox 也能这么干。

And then I wish I could do this in Dropbox too.

我觉得不行，至少在非文件提供者版本的 Dropbox 里，好像没这功能。

I don't think there's a way at least not in the in the non file provider version of Dropbox.

我真希望 Dropbox 能忽略我的 node modules 文件夹，但我不确定除了选择性同步之外，有没有办法让 Dropbox 不同步某个子文件夹——选择性同步的意思是，告诉它‘这个文件夹在 Dropbox 里存在，但别同步到这儿来’。

I would love Dropbox to ignore my node modules directories, but I don't know if there's a way to tell Dropbox to not sync an individual subdirectory other than selective sync, which is telling it, oh, this exists in Dropbox, know, but don't put it here.

可这根本不是我想表达的意思。

It's like, no, that's not what I want.

我是希望它留在本地，但希望 Dropbox 别去管它。

I want it to be here, but I want you to ignore Dropbox.

所以我现在还不知道该怎么实现这一点。

So I'm not quite sure how to do that.

我不是说会把 node module 的东西存在 Dropbox 里，但我确实有些 .git 文件夹在里面。

Not that I keep stuff, node module stuff in in Dropbox, but I do have some dot git directories in there.

总之，这事儿挺麻烦的。

Anyway, it's tricky.

而且，能快速生成大量小文件、频繁修改、用完就删的工具，越来越多，而不是越来越少。

And the number of things that create a bunch of small files very quickly and change them rapidly, and remove them when I'm done, is increasing over time, not decreasing.

关于使用机械硬盘做 Time Machine 备份，本·麦迪逊说：我直到最近还在用机械硬盘做 Time Machine 备份。

With regard to Time Machine on spinning disks, Ben Madison writes, I used a spinning disk for Time Machine until fairly recently.

我当时在给一台 MacBook Pro 做备份，这台电脑我经常得拔了去开会。

I was backing up a MacBook Pro, which I needed to unplug and take to meetings fairly regularly.

要是备份正好在关键时刻进行，等它结束、硬盘弹出，得花上老半天，结果我经常开会迟到。

If the backup happened to be running at the wrong moment, it took forever for the backup to end and the drive to eject, and I was frequently late to meetings as a result.

我一直以为这就是 Time Machine 的常态，直到我换了 SSD，才发现再也不用特意留出时间等断开连接了，简直太爽了。

I assume this was just the nature of Time Machine until I got an SSD and was thrilled to discover that I no longer needed to budget extra time for disconnecting my laptop.

这确实是个问题，但你为啥不干脆晚上插着让它备份，而不是整天连着呢？

This is a reasonable complaint, but why wouldn't you just, like, plug it in overnight or something rather than having it plugged in all all the time?

是啊。

Yeah.

你得记得去插，或者干脆把硬盘贴在笔记本盖子背面。

You gotta remember to do it or do the thing where you tape it to the back of your laptop lid.

对吧？

Right?

找个 2.5 英寸的机械硬盘，USB 供电的，直接贴在笔记本上就行。

You get a a 2.5 inch spinning disk that's bus powered, and you just tape it to your laptop.

是的。

Yeah.

便携设备就是麻烦，你知道吗？就算用SSD，Time Machine一让你取消备份，它就慢悠悠的，拖半天都不完。

It's just with with portable stuff, it is tricky because, you know, Time Machine even with SSDs, Time Machine takes its sweet time when you say cancel this backup.

对吧？

You know?

你可能想着直接拔掉电源，强制卸载，觉得应该没问题。

You could just yank the machine and unmount it, and you think, oh, it'll handle it.

反正不会出事。

It'll be fine.

但Time Machine就算在理想情况下都容易出错，我可不敢拿这个去冒险。

But given how frequently Time Machine corrupts itself under ideal circumstances, I wouldn't want to test that.

然后卡洛斯·佩雷拉说，他用Time Machine给MacBook Air的512GB固态硬盘备份到一个2TB的机械硬盘上，备份一次要十几个小时。

Then Carlos Pereira writes, when using Time Machine to backup my MacBook Air's 512 gig SSD to a two terabyte spinning discs, backups were taking more than twelve hours.

后来不知怎么，数据出问题了，外接硬盘里的备份全没了。

And at some point, something got corrupted and backups just vanished from the external drive.

我把 MacBook Pro 的一太字节 SSD 备份到四太字节的外接 SSD，十分钟就搞定，一点问题都没有。

Backing up my MacBook Pro's one terabyte SSD to a four terabyte external SSD takes ten minutes with no issues.

另外，大卫提到，自从 Mac OS 26 Tahoe 之后，我的时间机器备份盘和源盘一样大，这个月已经两次没能完成备份了。

Additionally, David writes, since Mac OS 26 Tahoe, surprise, my Time Machine drive that's same size as my source volume has failed to complete a backup twice in a single month.

我现在换了个容量是源盘两倍的新盘，但从去年秋天以来，已经重置格式、重新开始备份五到六次了。

I now have a new drive that's twice the size of my source volume, and I have needed to reformat it and start a new Time Machine backup five or six times since last fall.

我目前最老的备份是四月二十八号的，而且时间机器又在出问题了。

My current oldest backup is April 28, and, again, Time Machine is misbehaving.

它现在正在备份，进度已经到 30% 了，已经拷了 250 吉字节。

It's doing a backup right now, and progress is at 30% with 250 gigs copied so far.

我担心结果还是老样子：整个备份盘被占满，除了上星期五的那次备份，其他全被删掉腾空间，可新的备份还是完不成。

I fear the result will be, again, that the entire backup drive fills up with all previous backups except the last one from last Friday will be removed to free up space, and still the new backup cannot be completed.

到时候我又得重格式化，从头再来一遍。

Again, I will have to reformat the drive and start over.

两倍容量的盘，怎么会搞成这样？

How can this even happen with a two x drive?

我不知道。

I don't know.

我没怎么听说有人遇到过这种问题，但真是快把我逼疯了。

I don't see a lot of people experiencing this exact issue, but it's driving me batty.

我不清楚是什么原因引起的。

I'm not sure what triggers it.

还有系统更新，我又得把硬盘清空重来一次。

And then updates, I had to nuke my drive again and start over.

设备空间已满。

No space left on device.

我本人没遇到过，但听起来真够糟的。

I have not personally seen this, but, I mean, that stinks.

我遇到过。

I've seen it.

根本问题在于，苹果对时间机器的维护简直差强人意。

And and the the basic issue is that Apple's maintenance of Time Machine has been mediocre at best.

这个功能刚推出的时候特别棒，他们也不是没更新过。

It's the type of feature that when it was introduced, it was amazing, and they it's not like they haven't updated it.

如果你看底层代码，这些年他们其实改了不少，想让它变得更好。

If you look in the underpinnings, they've changed it a lot over the years to try to improve it.

但它就是一直缺一样东西，举个例子——可见性。

But it just has never really like, to give an example, visibility.

说白了，这其实是咱们对很多苹果产品共同的抱怨：你根本不知道它到底在干什么。

I mean, this is a complaint we have about a lot of Apple stuff, but, like, visibility into what is going on.

对吧？

Right?

网上很多人说，嘿，Time Machine 备份完成了。

And many people are you'll see online, they're saying, hey, Time Machine backup completed.

我坐在电脑前，刚写完一封邮件，就发现 Time Machine 又开始备份了，可我明明记得一小时前它才刚做完。

I sat down on my computer.

我坐在电脑前，刚写完一封邮件，就发现 Time Machine 又开始备份了，可我明明记得一小时前它才刚做完。

I I wrote an email, and then I noticed Time Machine had started again because an hour in the past.

我会去看一下。

I'd read it.

我花了一个小时写邮件、上网浏览，结果发现Time Machine又开始备份了。

I'd read spent an hour writing an email and browsing the web, and and then I see Time Machine started again.

这备份也太慢了吧。

And it's taking forever.

我这一个小时在Mac上做了什么，居然要花这么长时间来备份？

What happened on my Mac in that last hour that's taking so long to back up?

从用户的角度看，我只是发了一封邮件，顺便上了会儿网。

Because from your perspective as a user, it's like I sent one email and I browse the web.

到底有多少文件被备份了？

What what you know, what how many files is it backing up?

它到底在忙什么？

What is it doing?

为什么这么慢？

Why is it taking so long?

这种情况如果能更清楚地看到系统在做什么，就会好很多。

That's the type of thing where more visibility into the system would be beneficial.

比如你能看到，Time Machine 花这么长时间，是因为它在某个文件夹里备份了七百万个新文件。

So you could see Time Machine's taking a long time because it's backing up 7,000,000 new files in this particular directory.

说到底，它到底在忙什么？

You know, like, what is it doing?

为什么这么慢？

Why is it taking a long time?

它到底在备份哪些文件？

What is it backing up?

也许我该把这个文件夹排除掉，反正我不在乎这些文件。

Maybe I should exclude that directory because I don't care about those files.

说不定那是个缓存文件夹，本来就不该被 Time Machine 备份。

Maybe that's a cache directory that somehow Time Machine isn't backing up.

另外一点，抛开可见性不说，像 SSD 这样的设备，做增量备份时，同样的数据量，难道不应该越来越快吗？

And the second part is setting aside visibility is for simple tasks, especially with SSDs and so on, shouldn't it be getting faster over time to do an incremental backup the same amount of data?

难道它不应该随着时间越来越可靠吗？

Shouldn't it be getting more reliable over time?

难道我们不该好好优化一下，让它更高效、更快、更好吗？

Shouldn't it be, you know, shouldn't we be polishing this so that it is efficient, faster, better?

他们确实加了一些更高效的功能，比如用 API 快照，利用文件系统的特性来判断哪些内容变了——这其实才是最难的部分。

Like and they have added, you know, more efficient things where you will use the API snapshots and tries to use the features of the file system to, you know, has different strategies of figuring out what has changed since the last time, which is the tricky bit here.

我不是说一点进步都没有，但进步远远不够。

Like, I'm not saying it hasn't improved, but it hasn't improved enough.

它的可见性跟以前比一点都没提升。

It it doesn't have any better visibility than it did before.

像这种时候，你根本搞不清到底发生了什么。

And these type of where you're like, I don't understand what's going on.

我有个 Time Machine 硬盘。

I have a Time Machine drive.

它容量特别大。

It's huge.

它告诉我空间不够了。

It it tells me there's not enough space.

它要么删掉其他所有文件，要么卡在某个文件上，可我又不知道是哪个文件卡住了。

It deletes everything else or gets stuck on a file, and I don't know what file it's stuck on.

你上网一搜就能找到一堆办法，比如用 lsof 查看哪些文件被占用了，还有用 MDLS 看 spotlight 索引时也会遇到类似问题。

Like, you'll find so much stuff in web searches of, like, use lsof, you know, to figure out what files are open and figure out you see this with MDLS with the spotlight indexing as well.

大家都在想办法排查问题。

Just everyone trying to diagnose.

去看看日志吧。

Look at the logs.

看看这些行的内容。

Look at these lines.

如果出现这种情况，就这么做。

If this happens, do this.

把磁盘格式化重做一遍。

Erase your disking format it in this way.

就这么做。

Do this thing.

这根本不该是这么个情况。

It shouldn't be this fraud.

Time Machine 的核心价值，就是为那些不懂怎么备份的人提供一个简单的备份方案。

The whole point of Time Machine, the promise of it is that it's for backup for people who don't know how to deal with backup.

就是这么简单。

It's just simple.

把硬盘插上就行。

Plug in a drive.

你想备份到它上面。

You wanna back up to it.

好的。

Okay.

剩下的都交给我来处理。

I'll take care of everything for you.

但结果却变成了一场没完没了的 babysitting 恶梦，而且这还不是在机械硬盘上。

But instead, it becomes this babysitting nightmare where and again, this is not on spinning disks.

也不是因为文件太多太小。

This is not with lots of small files.

这纯粹就是正常使用 Time Machine 时遇到的问题。

This is just regular use of Time Machine.

说实话，我觉得这属于 macOS 另一个被放任自流的方面，我不确定是不是已经恶化了，但至少肯定没变好。

And, you know, I would file this under another aspect of macOS that has been allowed to I don't if it's been on to deteriorate, but it certainly hasn't improved.

你想想，那些已经存在多年、被频繁使用的功能，不该只是得到最低限度的维护，然后慢慢堆出新 bug。

You know, you would think features that exist for many, many years that are used frequently wouldn't just get the bare minimum of maintenance and slowly accumulate new bugs.

相反，它们应该每回更新都把已知问题一一解决，变得越来越好。

Instead, they would be, you know, knocking down every one of the bugs and getting better and better.

比如，我希望每隔几年在 WWDC 上，苹果能说：‘这次我们把 Time Machine 优化了。’

Like, I would wanna see every few years at WWC say, oh, and the new version of Mac OS.

我们让 Time Machine 变得更可靠了。

So we made Time Machine better.

它备份速度快了百分之二十，我们做了这个，也做了那个。

It it backs up 20% faster, we did this and we did that.

可现在，他们再也不提这些了。

And, like, they just don't say that anymore.

就连他们真做了一些改进，也从来不宣传。

Even the improvements they do make, they don't tout.

这让我特别沮丧，因为时间机器是我用过最棒的macOS功能之一，看着它越来越没起色，真让人难受。

And it's, like, frustrating to me because Time Machine is one of my favorite features of Mac OS ever added, and watching it watching it not thrive is, not fun.

本集由Zapier赞助。

We are sponsored this episode by Zapier.

Zapier才是你真正落实AI战略的工具，而不是光说不练。

Zapier is how you actually deliver on your AI strategy, not just talk about it.

现在AI无处不在。

So AI is everywhere these days.

这我们都清楚。

We all know that.

说实话，我觉得AI在很多方面都很有用。

And honestly, I find a lot of great uses for AI.

但有时候很难想清楚怎么把AI用在实际要做的任务上，或者怎么把它和我已有的工具或需要使用的服务整合起来。

But sometimes it can be hard to figure out how to harness that power with actual tasks I need to do, or integrating it with the tools or the services that I already use or that I needed to access.

这时候Zapier就派上用场了。

This is where Zapier really comes in.

Zapier是一个非常出色的编排和自动化平台，而且它出现的时间比AI早多了，已经存在很多年了。

Zapier is this amazing orchestration and automation platform that actually predates AI by they've been around for many, many years.

他们的平台早就内置了海量的集成和自动化功能。

They already have so many integrations and automations built into their platform.

他们干这行已经很久了。

They've been doing it forever.

他们是这方面的专家。

They're the experts.

现在AI出现了，Zapier反而让一切变得更强大了。

When AI has come around now, Zapier made things even better.

这简直就是火上浇油。

It's like pouring gasoline on the fire.

他们借助AI大幅提升了平台能力。

They have amazingly ramped up their capabilities with AI.

现在你可以通过Zapier的AI编排平台，把AI的强大功能应用到任何工作流程中。

You can now bring the power of AI to any workflow using Zapier's AI Orchestration platform.

他们给了我一个试用版，我试了试，短短三十秒就 setup 好了这些自动化流程。

They gave me a trial of it, I tried it out, and I set up these automations in just like thirty seconds.

太惊人了，现在AI能帮你构建Zapier的工作流和自动化任务，样样都行。

It was amazing because you can have AI now help you construct the Zapier workflows and automations and everything.

你只要用平常的话告诉它你想做什么就行。

So you just kind of ask it in plain language what you want.

它会给你提供选项，一步步引导你，自动生成整个流程。

It offers you options, it guides you through it, it creates the whole thing.

之后你可以自己修改，也可以让AI帮你修改。

You can then go and edit it or you can have the AI edit it.

这太棒了，省下大量时间。

It's amazing and it saves so much time.

你可以完成很多任务，还能连上各种工具。

You you can or you can accomplish so much, you can tie it into so many tools.

Zapier 就是把 AI 能力带入任何工作流程的关键。

Zapier is how you bring the power of AI to any workflow.

这样你就能更专注于真正重要的事。

So you can focus on more of what matters.

你可以整合所有不同的模型，比如 ChatGPT、Claude，你想用哪个都行。

You can integrate all the different models, ChatGPT, Claude, whatever you wanna use.

全都整合在一起了。

It's all integrated.

所有这些都能通过 Zapier 来协调管理。

You can orchestrate it all with Zapier.

不管你是不是技术专家，都没关系。

Whether you're a tech expert or not, doesn't matter.

已经有无数人使用过Zapier了。

So many people have used Zapier.

团队们已经通过它自动化了超过三亿个AI任务。

Teams have already automated over 300,000,000 AI tasks with them.

加入数百万正在用Zapier和AI重塑工作方式的企业吧。

So join the millions of businesses transforming how they work with Zapier and AI.

访问 zapier.com/atp 免费开始使用。

Get started for free by visiting zapier.com/atp.

就是 zapier.com/atp。

That's zapier.com/atp.

感谢Zapier对我们的节目赞助。

Thank you to Zapier for sponsoring our show.

《The Verge》的艾玛·罗斯报道，苹果公司已同意支付两亿五千万美元，以解决一项集体诉讼，该诉讼指控苹果在宣传其Apple Intelligence功能的可用性时误导了消费者。

Emma Roth at The Verge writes, Apple has agreed to pay $250,000,000 to settle a class action lawsuit that accused it of misleading customers about the availability of its Apple intelligence features.

这项和解方案适用于2024年6月10日至2025年3月29日期间购买了所有型号iPhone 16和iPhone 15 Pro的美国用户。

The proposed settlement would apply to people in The US who purchased all models of the iPhone 16 iPhone 15 Pro between 06/10/2024 and 03/29/2025.

根据代表这起集体诉讼的克拉克森律师事务所，符合条件的用户每台合格设备可获得25美元赔偿，具体金额可能根据索赔数量和其他因素在25到95美元之间浮动。

People who submit qualifying claims can receive $25 for each eligible device, which may increase or decrease up to $95 per device depending on claim volume and other factors, according to Clarkson Law Firm, the legal team behind the class action lawsuit.

苹果公司否认有任何不当行为。

Apple denied any wrongdoing.

这是苹果公司的完整声明。

Here's Apple's full statement.

自苹果智能推出以来，我们已在多个语言中上线了数十项功能，这些功能贯穿苹果各平台，紧密贴合用户的日常使用，并在每个环节都内置了隐私保护机制。

Since the launch of Apple Intelligence, we have introduced dozens of features across many languages that are integrated across Apple's platforms relevant to what users do every day and built with privacy protections at every step.

包括视觉智能、实时翻译、写作工具、Genmoji、内容清理，还有更多功能。

These include visual intelligence, live translation, writing tools, Genmoji, cleanup, and many, many more.

苹果已达成和解，以解决有关另外两项功能可用性的相关指控。

Apple has reached a settlement to resolve claims related to the availability of two additional features.

我们选择和解，是为了继续专注于我们最擅长的事——为用户提供最具创新性的产品和服务。

We resolved this matter to stay focused on what we do best, delivering the most innovative products and services to our users.

我很喜欢这种法律体系，他们一边说没做错什么，一边又承认广告里宣传的东西根本没上线。

I love the legal system where they can claim no wrongdoing, but it's like, but you didn't ship those things in the ad.

对吧？

Right?

没错。

Right.

一边说我们没做错什么，一边又付一亿五千万，这事儿也太明显了。

We're gonna claim no wrongdoing for this thing that was obviously the case, and also is we're gonna pay $150,000,000.

对。

Right.

没做错事，却还要赔钱。

Mean, there's no wrongdoing and paying.

有时候，就是得花钱让官司赶紧了结。

Sometimes you do just make a lawsuit go away.

但就连他们自己的声明里，也等于承认了其实做了不少其他事情。

But even in their own statement, they basically said, well, we did a bunch of other stuff.

对吧？

Right?

这事儿有点儿沾边儿。

It's kind of vaguely related.

我们这次和解，是针对那两个额外功能的可用性问题。

And we're resolving this thing with, you know, claims related to the availability of two additional features.

对，就是你没推出的那两个功能。

Like, yeah, those are the ones you didn't ship.

人家告你，就是因为这个。

That's what they're suing you about.

不如在电视上打个广告，宣传一下这些功能。

Better put ads on TV about those things.

大家看了广告，就会想：我得换部新iPhone，因为能用上这些功能。

And people would see the ads on TV and say, I'm gonna get a new iPhone because it's gonna have those things.

可你想想，到今天为止，这些功能根本就没上线。

And you know, you literally today, they're not shipping.

到现在还是没上线。

They're still not shipping.

我觉得这个案子稳赢无疑。

So I feel like this is a slam dunk case.

他们说我们不承认有任何过错，但明摆着，他们宣传了根本没推出的功能。

And for them to say we admit no wrongdoing, but we obviously they I mean, they advertise things that they didn't ship.

没错。

So yeah.

我买了16 Pro，所以能拿到25到95美元的补偿，挺期待的。

And I I bought I have a 16 Pro, so I will be getting my 25 to $95 for that, and I'm excited about that.

你已经报名参加了吗？

Did have you actually signed up for it yet?

他们还没开放申请通道。

They don't have they have a

我觉得现在还没法报名。

I don't think there's a way to sign up for it yet.

明白了。

Okay.

我也是这么想的。

That's what thought.

但我猜他们会发邮件通知我，或者在节目里提到，总之会有办法的。

But, I'm assuming they'll send me an email or, you know, we'll cover it in the show or whatever.

我总是会报名参加这些活动。

But I always sign up for these things.

每次都领，反正金额也不多，顺手的事。

Always, you know, take the money from the usually, it's got a piddling amount.

不过有时候，家里好几台设备都能算上。

But, hey, sometimes it's like a multiple devices in the family.

我两个孩子每人能拿30块，我也有30块。

So, you know, both my kids get $30, I get $30.

当然了，白给的钱为什么不拿？

You know, sure.

有钱拿，我当然要。

I'll take the money.

但我觉得，这大概是苹果能想到的最糟糕的结局了。他们被允许和解，承认没有过错，并支付了一笔对他们来说就像零花钱、微不足道的罚款，以此换取解决这个可能是过去几十年里最大的失误——也就是WWDC 2024上展示了一堆功能，然后请《最后生还者》和《权力的游戏》里的知名明星在电视上打广告宣传这些功能，结果直到我们录制这期节目时，这些功能都还没上线。

But I just this is, this is probably the least bad ending Apple could have hoped for that they'll they were allowed to settle and admit no wrongdoing and pay to what to them is like, you know, pocket change, nothing, in exchange for probably one of the biggest screw ups in the past couple of decades, biggest public screw ups in the past couple of decades, which is at WWC twenty twenty four showing a bunch of features and then putting ads on TV with a famous star from the last of us slash game of thrones advertising those features, and then to just literally never ship them up till the day we're recording this.

按理说，在27个操作系统版本里，他们宣传的那些功能或者类似的功能应该会发布，但他们到现在还没做。

Presumably, in all the 27 OS's, the features they advertise or something similar like them, we'll ship, but they still haven't done it.

如果我们当初在WWDC 2024的时候说，嘿，我们这期节目是在WWDC 2026之前录制的，而广告里的那些功能一个都没上线。

And if we had back at WWE 2024, five said, hey, we're gonna be recording right before WWE 2026, and none of those features in the ad will have shipped.

那将是一个非常悲观、灰暗的看法，但这正是我们目前的现实。

That would be a pretty grim, pessimistic view, but that's the reality we're in right now.

不过说实话，当时要是听到这个消息，你会觉得意外吗？

Although, to be honest, like, would you have been surprised to hear that at the time?

我不确定我会不会惊讶。因为即便在当时，这听起来也挺有野心的，概念上也很超前，而且我们还没见过AI能可靠地做到这些。

Like, I don't know that I necessarily because even at the time, it seemed pretty ambitious and pretty, like, concept y, and we had not yet seen AI do pretty much any of those things with any level of reliability.

你看，苹果总是众矢之的，因为他们名气大、有钱，所以各种指控都往他们身上扣，有人想告他们或者敲诈他们，大多数都是瞎扯，也都不公平。

Normally, look, Apple has a big target on its back because they're big and famous and rich, and so they get all sorts of things levied at them, people attempting to sue them or shake them down, and most of them are BS, and most of them are undeserved.

但这次这个案子，我觉得不是瞎扯，苹果确实该为此负责，这是他们应得的。

This particular one, I think is not BS, and is exactly what Apple deserved for what it actually did.

直到今天，我还是很惊讶，他们居然敢这么明目张胆、如此草率地宣传那些功能，不管是在WWC上，还是在电视广告里，这简直太不负责任了。

I still to this day am surprised that they were so brazen and careless with the way that they advertised those features, both at the BBC and then in the TV commercials, like that that was incredibly negligent and reckless of them to do that.

所以他们现在遭的报应，完全是自找的。

So they deserve what happened here.

这件事，他们百分百脱不了干系。

This one is a 100% on them.

回头来看，说实话，我敢肯定将来总有一天会知道真相，但两年都过去了，他们居然还放出了那些广告，这实在说不通——他们总不至于真觉得，随便在WWC上展示一下就没事吧？毕竟那只是开发者圈子。

And in hindsight, like, really does I mean, I'm sure the story will tell someday, but it really does seem like because given the two years, two whole years have passed, they were just, like there's no way that they would have aired an average I mean, what they showed WWC fine because that's like a developer community.

在开发者大会上随便秀点东西，也许还能理解。

Maybe you show whatever.

但问题是，

But like

就连在WWC上展示，我觉得也不该这么干。

Even that, though, I don't think that's fine.

嗯，我知道那也不算对，但至少跟电视广告比起来，性质还不一样。

Well, I mean, it's not it's not fine, but but at least it's not like here's the thing.

他们在WWC上展示的东西，有时候还没发布就改了，或者干脆不推出了，这很正常。

They they show stuff in WWC, and sometimes things don't ship or change before shipping because it's it's the nature of a thing.

你看到的是未发布的产品，你又是开发者，这种事你懂的。

You're seeing a prerelease product, you're a developer, like, you get it.

但一旦把东西放到电视上给大众看，就说明他们真觉得这些功能迟早能实现。

But once you put things on television for the public to see, that shows me that they really thought that they would eventually get to these things.

要说最糟糕的情况，我想起的就是那个白色iPhone，他们也在电视上打过广告。

Like, I mean, the only other worst case thing I can think of is, the the white iPhone, which they also advertise in television.

我猜他们当时真觉得，白色iPhone 4的生产有困难，但总能解决的。

And I believe they really thought, well, we're having trouble with the white one, the iPhone white iPhone four.

白色版有麻烦，不过没关系，迟早能推出。

We're having trouble with the white one, but, you know, we'll get it out eventually.

他们最后是推出了，但我记不清具体是什么时候了。

And they did get it out eventually, but it was I forget what it was.

格鲁伯最近又发帖提到这事。

Gruber was just posting about it again.

好像是

Was, like,

大概十八个月左右吧。

eighteen months or something.

差不多就是这个时间。

Something like that.

对吧？

Right?

苹果一贯的做法是，好吧，

So I the usual Apple thing is like, okay.

就算还没准备好，我们也相信它迟早会推出。

Even if it's not ready, we all believe that it will be ready in a reasonable time frame.

我们通常会想，

We're like,

是啊。

oh, yeah.

当然。

Sure.

不。

No.

肯定能搞定。

It'll totally be ready.

虽然现在有点困难，但我们一定会按时发布。

Like, we're having difficulty, but we'll get it out the door.

就是说，算了。

It's like, okay.

行吧。

Fine.

然后我们就上线广告。

Then we're gonna run the ads.

因为我觉得，如果苹果内部真觉得这些功能两年都弄不出来，他们根本不会拍这个广告。

Because I I I think if they if Apple actually internally believed that they weren't gonna have these features for two years, they would not have aired the ad.

他们以为，我们现在没有这些功能，但大家都说迟早能搞定。

What they thought was we don't have them now, but everyone says that we'll probably get them eventually.

所以先别停广告。

So chip the ad.

趁热打铁很重要。

It's important to strike while the iron's hot.

这些功能确实会比原计划晚一点上线，不过也没关系。

The the features will come a little bit later than we wanted, but it's fine.

说到底，他们还没意识到，自己根本做不到这一点。

But they they they what it comes down to is they did not realize yet that they were not gonna be able to do this.

不是今年，也不是明年。

Not that year, not the next year.

他们就是对情况判断错了，我也希望当时真有大变动——当然，肯定是有的。

Like, they and they're just mistaken about what they're you know, and I hope there was a big I mean, obviously, there was.

公司大换血，管理层调整，各种变动，现在新CEO上任了。

There's big shakeup, leadership changes, all sorts of stuff, and now they got a new CEO.

所以希望这家公司别再犯同样的错误了。

So hopefully, the company will not make that mistake.

说白了，就是不了解自己。

It's basically not knowing yourself.

你要对自己诚实一点。

Like, be honest with yourself.

我们到底发不发布这个产品？

Are we gonna ship this or are we not?

公司内部有一种文化，大家其实都在骗自己，假装能完成那些事。

And internally, you have a culture where you're essentially all lying to yourselves about what you're gonna do.

我觉得这种做法，苹果以前靠它挺多年了。

And, like, I think that has served Apple well for years.

他们一直说，我们会定下很激进的目标。

They've always said, you know, we'll set these aggressive targets.

我们会告诉团队去完成不可能的任务。

We'll tell the team to do the impossible.

即使稍微晚一点，他们最终还是能做到。

And even if they're a little bit late, they'll eventually do it.

但就像我当时抱怨的那样，这次情况完全不同，根本没什么办法能促成这件事——结果也确实如此。

But as I think I complained about at the time, it's like this one is different and that there's nothing they can really do to make this happen, and that turned out to be the case.

这不是简单地找找bug、修一修就能解决的问题。

Like, it's not like it's just a simple matter of finding the bugs and fixing them or whatever.

这性质根本不一样，而且特别不一样的是，他们内部研发的那些大模型，连竞争对手的水平都达不到。

It's it's of a different nature, and it was especially of a different nature because as it turns out, their, you know, their LLMs that they were working on internally weren't even up to the their competitors' standards.

就像马尔科刚说的，那时候连他们的竞争对手都没这么做。

And as Marco just said, even their competitors weren't doing this at the time.

所以，他们居然相信自己能做出连别人都没做到的事，而他们的技术还比别人差，却还要在那么短的时间内发布，甚至为此拍了广告——这简直是公开地彻底失去了对自身能力的清醒判断。

So to believe that they were going to do something that no one else had ever done, even though their internal technology to do that was worse than everybody else's, And they were gonna ship it in a time frame that justified airing the ad to shows a complete breakdown of accurate self assessment, in a very public way.

我们以前也批评过他们在开发者情绪等问题上的自我误判，但这次是苹果多年来最公开、最明显的自我欺骗了。

We've seen we've complained about their inaccurate self assessment in terms of developer sentiment or all sorts of other things, but this was, like, the most public display of self delusions, corporate self delusion that Apple has experienced in a long time.

对。

Yeah.

我是说，刚才马可好像提过这一点。

I mean, I generally I think it was Marco that said this a minute ago.

我觉得集体诉讼有点荒唐，但就像约翰说的，反正签了也没损失。

I generally think the class action lawsuits are kind of silly, but it like John said, you might as well sign up for them.

我以前在节目里简单讲过这个事，但在我把宝马卖了好久之后，有个关于水泵的集体诉讼，只要你能证明自己修过N55发动机的水泵，就能从宝马拿一千美元赔偿。

I think I've told this story briefly on the show before, but, long after I got rid of my BMW, there was a water pump related class action lawsuit where if you could prove that you paid for a repair to your water pump in your n 55, then you could get I think it was like a thousand bucks from BMW.

因为我一向喜欢把这类事情的单据都保存得清清楚楚，所以拿出了好几年前在里士满宝马店花一千多美元换水泵的发票，结果真收到了宝马寄来的一千美元支票。

And because I'm me and I keep copious notes on these sorts of things, I was able to produce the receipt from several years prior when I paid Richmond BMW a thousand plus dollars in order to replace my water pump, and I got a check from BMW for a thousand bucks.

这事儿简直太神奇了。

It was incredible.

不过我当时确实领了。

But I yeah.

我觉得说到广告这事，你讲得对，他们真以为自己能按时发布。

I think that with regard to the advertising, I do think it's like you were saying that they thought they were gonna ship.

他们是真这么想的。

They really did.

嗯，确实有点自大了。

Like, yes, there was a bit of of hubris.

我差点就说‘自大’了。

I almost said hubris.

居然觉得这事儿肯定能成，未免太自信了。

A bit of hubris to to to think that, oh, we'll definitely ship this.

毫无疑问。

No question.

结果呢，没成。

And then not.

但我真不觉得他们是存心骗人。

But I I don't think it was ill intentioned.

我感觉他们是真心相信自己能交付的，结果根本没做到。

I I really do think and get the vibe that they believed that they were going to ship, and then it turns out they very much didn't.

希望他们这次真的吸取了教训。

And I think they hopefully have learned a lesson.

看起来他们除非真的马上要发布或者已经发布了，否则就不该去宣传这些东西。

It sure seems like they have that they shouldn't be advertising these things unless they are really truly about to launch or already launched.

明白了。

Alright.

我们有几个关于苹果、英特尔和三星的消息。

We have a couple of stories with regard to Apple and Intel and Samsung.

从5月4日开始，马克·古尔曼报道，苹果公司。

So starting on May 4, Mark Gurman writes, Apple Inc.

曾与英特尔和三星展开初步讨论，考虑让这两家公司在美国为其设备生产主处理器。

Has held exploratory discussions about using Intel Corp and Samsung Electronics Co to produce the main processors for its device in The US.

苹果公司已与英特尔就其芯片制造服务进行早期接触。

Apple has had early stage talks with Intel about enlisting the company's chip making services.

苹果高管还访问了三星在德克萨斯州正在建设的先进芯片工厂。

Apple executives have made visits to a Samsung plant under development in Texas that will also make advanced chips.

与这两家公司的讨论早在最近的芯片短缺加剧之前就开始了。

Discussions with both companies started before the latest shortest shortages took hold.

苹果之前说过，三星已经在为iPhone和其他产品生产更多外围组件，比如电源管理相关的零件。

Samsung is already working on building more peripheral components for the iPhone and other products, including ones for managing device power, said Apple or Apple had said earlier.

另外，我们推荐你去看看苹果官网新闻稿，里面提到他们将美国地区的投资增加到了6000亿美元。

Additionally, we will point you to a link in Apple's newsroom wherein they are increased or they announced they were increasing their US commitment to $600,000,000,000.

当古尔曼说苹果之前提过这事的时候，我一听就觉得不对劲。

That's where they said that they were you know, when and when Gurman said Apple said earlier, I'm like, wait a second.

这事儿真是苹果官方确认的吗？

Is this an officially confirmed Apple thing?

但那篇新闻稿确实这么写的。

But it was the press release.

新闻稿里明确说三星正在为苹果手机生产零部件。

Like, that's that's where they said that their Samsung is building stuff for Apple phones.

不是主芯片，但我记不清具体是啥了。

Not the main SoCs, but I forget what it is.

就像古尔曼说的，是一些外围组件。

Peripheral components as Gurman describes it.

这一点在那份新闻稿里确实提到了。

That is apparently in this press release.

继续说格曼的观点，苹果倾向于为任何重要部件至少保留两家供应商，这样在价格谈判上有主动权，也能避免供应链中断的风险。

Continuing from Gurman, Apple prefers to have at least two suppliers for any major component, giving it leverage in pricing negotiations and protection from supplier disruptions.

早在2022年，库克在全员会议上就对员工说过，呃——

As far back as 2022, Cook told employees in an all hands meeting that and I hi.

这是凯西。

This is Casey.

我之前真没在哪儿听过这句话，这次是第一次看到。

I didn't remember hearing this particular quote anywhere, so this was new to me.

而且，我想是约翰在我们内部的节目笔记里特意加粗了这一段。

And, certainly, I think it was John that bolded it in our internal show notes.

我来念一下库克在2022年的这段话。

Let me read this quote from Cook from 2022.

不管你个人怎么想，60%的芯片产能都集中在台湾，这肯定不是个明智的战略布局。

Regardless of what you may feel and think, 60% coming out of anywhere is probably not a strategic position, referring to chip production concentrated in Taiwan.

是的。

Yeah.

所以这个是我，没错。

So this is I yeah.

我之前也没听过这句话。

I also had not heard this quote.

如果以前听过，我也早就忘了。

If I did hear it back then, I had forgotten about it.

这还是2022年的事，当时是蒂姆·库克对员工说的。

Again, this is back in 2022, and this is Tim Cook talking to employees.

如果你觉得他对员工比对公众更坦率，我觉得并不是这样。

And if you think he's more candid with employees than he is with the public, I don't think he is.

因为第一，他知道所有话迟早都会泄露。

Because, a, he knows everything's gonna leak.

第二，我觉得他从没对任何人这么坦白过。

And, b, I don't think he's candid with anybody like that.

但他这里明明白白地说，我们不喜欢从台积电拿这么多东西。

But here he is stating plainly, we don't like that we get so much stuff from TSMC.

他说的比例大概是百分之六十。

And his thing was like 60%.

你懂的。

You know?

百分之六十。

60%.

如果我们从单一来源拿到任何东西的百分之六十，那都太危险了。

If we're getting 60% of anything from a single place, that's bad.

我得告诉你个坏消息，蒂姆。

It's like, well, I have bad news, Tim.

这情况不会好转的。

That's not gonna get better.

台积电现在可是为你所有手机芯片代工的唯一厂家。

That's like, TSMC is making all your chips for the phones.

这说明库克根本不是不知道，而且类似的情况在中国和其他地方也一再发生。

It is just, you know so it shows that it's not as if Cook was unaware, and and, you know, repeat for China and other things.

库克当然清楚，供应链过于集中有多危险。

Not as a Cook was unaware that a nondiversified supply chain is bad.

只是想把这艘大船转个方向太难了，比如最近一批新iPhone，有一半是在印度生产的，诸如此类。

It just seems like the process of trying to, you know, turn that ship and, you know, whatever it was, like, half of new iPhones were created in India, in the recent batch or something like that.

要真正实现制造多元化，到底需要多长时间？

Like, how long does it take to start to diversify your manufacturing to the extent that you can?

答案是，得好几年，甚至更久。

And the answer is many, many years.

现在都2026年了，他们还在努力，而TSMC依然是个巨大的瓶颈——这正是整个故事的核心：苹果正指望英特尔和三星来帮一把。

Here we are in 2026, and they're still working on it, and TSMC is still a massive bottleneck, which is what the story is about is like the Apple looking to Intel and Samsung to help them out here.

三星其实已经在生产iPhone和其他产品的部分外围元件了，但总比没有强。

And, you know, Samsung is already making whatever peripheral components for the iPhone and other products are, but, hey, you know, something is better than nothing.

制造多元化也是一样，多在美国本土，还有TSMC在亚利桑那的工厂多生产一些，总归是好事。

Same thing with diversifying manufacturing and doing more manufacturing in The US and the various TSMC Arizona plants.

没错，现在还是TSMC，但至少是在亚利桑那，而不是台湾。

Yes, it's still TSMC, but at least it's in Arizona and not Taiwan.

这算是向多元化迈出的一小步，但我喜欢这句话，因为它清楚表明，早在2022年，蒂姆·库克就已经意识到这种局面很危险。

So baby steps towards diversification, but I I like this quote because it it really if you if you're looking for proof that, you know, Tim Cook understands that this is a bad situation, at least as far back as 2022, he knew that it's not a good place to be.

只不过接下来的四年里，他没能真正改变多少。

It's just that in the in the subsequent four years, he was not able to change that appreciably.

继续讲德国的情况。

Continuing from German.

自那以后，苹果与台积电紧密合作，帮助其在亚利桑那扩大产能，目前这家工厂已为苹果生产部分芯片。

Since then, Apple has worked closely with TSMC to help expand operations in Arizona where the supplier now produces a limited number of chips for Apple from a single plant.

苹果在亚利桑那的产能正在快速提升，公司表示，到2026年，将从那里获得一亿颗芯片。

It's ramping up work quickly for Apple, which it which said it will get a 100,000,000 chips from Arizona in 2026.

苹果目前还面临内存芯片短缺的问题，但库克表示，眼下更大的挑战是主处理器——也就是SoC芯片的供应。

Apple also is contending with shortages of memory chips, but Cook said that finding enough main processors, the SoCs, or systems on a chip, is a bigger challenge right now.

库克在财报电话会上说：‘目前最主要的瓶颈是先进制程节点的产能，而不是内存。'

Quote, the primary constraint is the availability of, the advanced nodes our SoCs are produced on, not memory, Cook said during the earnings call.

这使得苹果更难满足像 Mac Mini 和 Mac Studio 这类产品的市场需求。

That's making it harder for Apple to satisfy demand for products like the Mac Mini and Mac Studio.

他说，我认为要达到供需平衡还需要几个月的时间。

He said, quote, I believe it will take several months to reach supply demand balance.

这挺有意思的。

So that's interesting.

这番话是在财报电话会上说的吧？

This was on the earnings call, I think.

他等于直接承认了，内存不是我们最大的问题。

Him basically confirming it's like, RAM is not our main problem.

内存确实有困难，但不是最头疼的。

RAM is a problem, but it's not our main problem.

这倒也合理，毕竟做内存芯片的厂家有三家，不像先进制程芯片就一家能做。

And that makes some sense because, you know, instead of there being one company in the world that can make the best, chips, there's three for RAM.

真没想到。

Wow.

真是多得用不完啊。

An embarrassment of riches.

我觉得是三家。

I think it's three.

对吧？

Right?

是美光、海力士、三星吧？

Isn't it Micron, highness, s

海力士、三星。

k highness, Samsung.

是的。

Yeah.

没错。

Yeah.

不过，比只有一家强多了。

Anyway, that's better than one.

对吧？

Right?

但问题是，这其实说明Mac Studio那些大内存配置根本买不到，真正的问题不在内存本身，而在SoC上。

But, like, what this is arguing for is that, like, you know, the the Mac Studio with the big RAM configs, the fact that you can't get that, the SoCs are more of a problem than the RAM.

这挺奇怪的。

Like, that's weird.

不过也说得通，因为现在的内存基本都被AI数据中心用光了。

But, you know, it's plausible because, the RAM is all being used by, you know, AI data centers.

但AI数据中心不也是在用这些内存吗？

But, you know, it's also being used by a data set AI data centers?

NVIDIA在大量生产他们的GPU，用来跑所有的推理和训练任务，最近不是有消息说，NVIDIA已经取代苹果，成了台积电最大的客户吗？

NVIDIA fabbing their GPU things to run all the inference and training, that well, whatever the story was that went by recently that, like, essentially NVIDIA is now TSMC's biggest customer, ousting Apple.

以前台积电最大的客户是苹果，现在换成NVIDIA了。

Apple used to be, TSMC's biggest customer, and now it's NVIDIA.

所以，当他们要那批18 Pro的芯片时，说不定是把NVIDIA的GPU订单往后推了，还加钱插了队。

So, yeah, I guess when they asked for that hot lot of of a 18 pros, maybe they bump some NVIDIA GPUs off the line and paid some money to get the fast pass in there.

不过，这确实是最近的财报电话会内容。

But, yeah, this is the most recent earning calls.

估计得花上好几个月才能让供需恢复平衡。

Believe it will take several months to reach supply demand balance.

这对等着买iMac Studio的我来说，又是坏消息。

This is also, more bad news for me waiting for iMac Studio.

如果蒂姆·库克都说拿不到SoC芯片，那对Mac Mini和Mac Studio这类产品来说可真不妙。

If Tim Cook is saying we can't get the SoCs, and that's really bad for products like the Mac Mini and the Mac Studio.

所有这些都发生在5月4日。

So all of that was May 4.

再往前推四天，到5月8日。

Fast forward four days to May 8.

苹果和英特尔可能又走到一起了。

Apple and Intel are perhaps together again.

罗比·韦兰和罗尔夫·温克勒在《华尔街日报》上撰文提到。

So Robbie Whelan and Rolf Winkler write in the Wall Street Journal.

据知情人士透露，苹果和英特尔已达成初步协议，由英特尔为苹果的部分设备制造芯片。

Apple and Intel have reached a preliminary agreement for Intel to manufacture some of the chips that power Apple devices according to people familiar with the matter.

《华尔街日报》称，目前尚不清楚哪些苹果产品会采用英特尔芯片。

The Wall Street Journal says that it's, quote, still unclear, quote, what Apple products will get Intel chips.

是的。

Yeah.

我觉得目前还没有更多细节，但你看，亚利桑那那家工厂计划年产一亿颗芯片，而台积电在亚利桑那的工厂并不属于最先进制程，比如两纳米。

I don't think there's any been any more detail on this, but, like, the right before the 100,000,000 chips from Arizona, like, the TSMC Arizona plants are not on the cutting edge, like, two nanometer.

也不是三纳米。

They're also not three nanometer.

我觉得是五纳米，或者可能是七纳米。

I think they're five or maybe seven.

我有点记不清了。

I forget.

但关键是，最顶尖的芯片还是得靠台湾的台积电。

But, like, the whole idea is, like, we can't you know, the best chips still come from TSMC in Taiwan.

但如果我们能把其中一部分产能分出来，生产像 Mouse Rock 这样的老款芯片，也就是数字较小的 A 系列芯片，这些芯片现在还用在一些设备里，比如 Apple TV 之类的，它们根本不需要三纳米工艺。

But if we can take some chips off of that line and manufacture like the Mouse Rock, the older chips, the the a chips with lower numbers, the chips that we're still putting in some devices, maybe we put them in our Apple TVs or whatever, those aren't three nanometer.

我们能不能把这些芯片拿到别处生产，好让台积电那边腾出产能？

Can we make them somewhere else to free up some capacity in TSMC in Taiwan?

然后就能让他们把 M5 Ultra 这类芯片留在台湾生产，你知道的，反正就是那些必须在台湾做的。

And then we can get them to fab the m five ultra for us there, you know, whatever.

就是那些只能在台湾生产的芯片，别占着资源了。

Like, what whatever s o c that they can only be done in Taiwan.

要是他们能从台湾以外的地方搞定那批热门的 A18 Pro 芯片，说不定他们已经这么做了，那再好不过，毕竟不能让台积电卡在那儿，对吧？

Let's not clog them up with like, if they could have asked for that hot lot of a 18 pros from somewhere other than Taiwan, and maybe they did for all we know, that would be great because you don't want to bottleneck that and you know?

我真想知道 Intel 到底在给他们生产什么。

So I would love to know what the Intel is making for them.

也许只是些外围芯片或者辅助芯片，但不管怎样，这都是供应链多元化的一部分。

Maybe they're making just peripheral, like, support chips or something, but this is all part of the diversification effort.

我觉得这事儿吧，也不好说有多大的意义，不过《苹果与中国》那本书里提到过，苹果当年往中国砸了海量资金，帮着把中国打造成今天的制造巨头。

And I guess it's kind of I mean, don't know how much to read into this, but, like, know, the Apple and China book talks so much about how Apple just dumped buckets and buckets and buckets of money into China to help turn them into the, manufacturing, you know, colossus that they are today.

这是一种互利共赢的关系。

It was a symbiotic relationship.

我们会投很多钱，你们帮我们生产，我们付钱买。

We will dump in lots of money, and you will make the things for us, and we will pay for them.

我们越成功，你们也就越成功。

And we'll just, you know, as as we succeed, you'll succeed.

但当时确实投入了巨额资金。

And we'll but, like, there was a huge investment there.

苹果的新闻稿总说，哦，是的。

And, you know, Apple's press releases say, oh, yeah.

我们正在加大对美国制造的投入，之类的。

We're investing more in US manufacturing or whatever.

转向三星和英特尔，本质上就是苹果在给TSMC的竞争对手注资，毕竟，你们要是没人买，根本没法跟TSMC竞争。

And going to Samsung and Intel is essentially Apple investing in competitors to TSMC because, hey, you're not gonna be able to compete with TSMC unless people buy stuff from you.

我们希望TSMC有健康的竞争对手，所以给你们投资是明智的——英特尔，你们到底能做点什么？

We want there to be healthy competition for TSMC, so it behooves us to give you money to what what can you do, Intele?

说白了，我们知道你们造不出顶尖的芯片，但你们到底能做什么？

Like, it's like it's kinda like a like, we know you can't make the good chips, but what can you do?

因为我们想给你们投钱。

Because we wanna give you money.

我们希望你们能成功，因为TSMC必须有竞争对手。

We want you to succeed because we need TSMC to have competition.

这情况不好。

It's not good.

先不谈台湾那些地缘政治问题。

Setting aside the whole Taiwan and, you know, geopolitical thing.

就算他们不在台湾，全世界就一家供应商，这也不靠谱。

Just even if they were regardless of where they are in the world, having one source, you know, is not great.

就像他说的，六成芯片都来自同一个地方，这肯定不行。

As he said, 60% coming out of one place is not great.

我觉得iPhone芯片的占比肯定远超六成。

And I think they're way over 60% for, like, the iPhone chips at least.

所以我觉得他们会去找英特尔、三星，还有任何有可能为苹果产品生产芯片的公司，问他们：你们能提供什么？

So I think they're going to Intele, Samsung, and anyone else who has any chance of manufacturing anything that could be used in any Apple product and saying saying to them, what can you give us?

只要你们能拿出东西，我们就愿意付钱。

We will pay you if you can give us anything.

我们手头有不少产品需要代工制造。

You know, we have a bunch of things that need to be fab.

有些是老款芯片，还有一些小产品。

We got some old chips and small products.

我们不希望你们倒闭。

We want you to not go out of business.

实际上，我们希望你们能做得好，所以拿去这笔钱吧。

In fact, we want you to do well, so take this money.

我只是不太确定，读了这些之后，我到底该作何感想。

I just but I don't but I don't know if reading this is.

这笔钱只是用来应付美国政治上的那些花架子，还是说，这标志着苹果开始像中国那样，把更多资金投向其他公司，以平衡半导体制造过于集中的局面？

Is this just like a piddling amount of money to satisfy US political BS things or whatever, or is this the beginning of a China style investment where Apple's gonna start funneling more and more of its cash to other companies to try to balance out the lopsided arrangement of, silicon manufacturing?

这期节目由Quince赞助。

We are sponsored this week by Quince.

为了尊重我们的听众，如果你跟我一样，也在听《偶然技术播客》，那你可能确实需要一点帮助来改善自己的衣橱。

So with love and respect to our listeners, if you're anything like me and if you're listening to the Accidental Tech Podcast, you probably are, you maybe could stand to have a little bit of help with your wardrobe.

我本人就特别需要。

I know I certainly can.

尤其是现在北半球进入春夏季，我这十三年来录制ATP的夏日穿搭，基本就是一件ATPT恤加短裤。

And especially now that we're entering warmer weather in spring and summer here in the Northern Hemisphere, my wardrobe for the warm weather thirteen years into recording ATP is basically an ATP t shirt and shorts.

对我来说，夏天就这身行头，但其实没必要这样。

That's the whole summer for me, and it doesn't have to be that way.

完全不必如此，而Quince能帮你改善这一点。

It doesn't have to be that way, and Quince can help make it better.

不只是帮我，也能帮Aaron和我们的孩子，因为Quince的产品线挺全面的。

And not just for me, but for Aaron and for our kids because Quince does a little bit of everything.

不过他们最拿手的还是服装，当然他们也不只做这个，但服装确实是他们的核心。

But their bread and butter is clothing, and that's not all they do, of course, but that's their bread and butter.