安卓

我们现在需要和iPhone竞争。

We now need to compete with the iPhone.

所以那年晚些时候，也就是十一月，谷歌——这里的时间点很有意思。

So later that year in November, Google and and it's interesting the timing here.

我们不知道他们原本打算什么时候做这件事，但最终他们是在十一月做的。

We don't know when they were originally planning to do this, but they ended up doing it in November.

所以在iPhone发布之后，他们举办了一场大型活动，宣布了安卓操作系统。

So after the the iPhone had launched, they have a big event and they announce and the Android operating system.

同样重要的是，他们还宣布了开放手机联盟。

And they also announce equally importantly, the Open Handset Alliance.

开放手机联盟的成员包括HTC、索尼、三星、Sprint、T-Mobile和高通。

And so the Open Handset Alliance, they have HTC, Sony, Samsung, Sprint, T Mobile, and Qualcomm.

所以，整个手机生态系统，整个产业链都包括在内。

So, like, the whole It's like the phone ecosystem, the whole stack.

制造商、操作系统，还有运营商。

Manufacturer, they're the operating system, they have the carriers.

对。

Yep.

这对生态系统里的所有参与者来说都是如此。

And this is this is for all of these these players in the ecosystem.

你知道，如果他们还没意识到的话，这就是他们唯一能对抗苹果的方式——大家必须团结合作，需要一个开放的操作系统把所有东西串联起来，那就是安卓。

You know, if they don't realize already, this comes to be this is the only way they're gonna stand up to Apple is they all need to work together, and there needs to be this open operating system tying it all together, which becomes Android.

所以他们同时宣布了这两件事。

So they announced both at the same time.

特别有意思的是，在宣布的同时，他们还推出了1000万美元的安卓挑战赛。

And what's super interesting is, as part of the announcement, they also have the $10,000,000 Android challenge.

谷歌非常明确地表示，安卓是一个开放的操作系统，这意味着两件事。

So they make it super clear, Google does, that Android is an open operating system, and that means two things.

第一，它是开源的。对。

One, it's open source Mhmm.

所以任何人都可以使用它。

So anybody can use it.

后来，这导致了安卓的分支，比如Cyanogen，比如Kindle Fire。

And later on, this leads to forks of Android like Cyanogen, like the Kindle Fire

小米就是一个例子。

Xiaomi as an example.

这在后来变得非常重要。

Becomes super important later.

但它是完全免费的。

But that's it's completely free.

任何人都可以拿安卓软件做任何他们想做的事。

Anybody can take the Android software and do whatever they want with it.

对。

Mhmm.

谷歌强调的开放的另一部分是，开发者可以为这个平台开发应用。

The other part of Open that Google really focuses on is developers can develop for the platform.

这是在iPhone之前，iOS还没有向开发者开放。

So this was before the iPhone iOS was not yet open to developers.

2008年6月或7月的WWDC上，苹果才回头宣布了这件事。

WWDC in July or in June 2008 is when Apple gonna walked back there.

你可以制作网页应用，并宣布了App Store。

You can make web apps and announce the App Store.

对。

Yep.

而且乔布斯最初的态度，你知道的，就是摆出那种姿态，说我们不需要开发者。

And and Steve Jobs initially was you know, his posturing was we did you know, we don't want developers.

我们想掌控整个软件栈的一切。

We wanna control everything of the software stack.

很难想象，如果没有第三方开发者，今天的iPhone会是什么样子。

And hard to imagine what the iPhone would be like today if there were not third party developers.

不会成功。

Not successful.

嗯，这很有意思。

Well, it's interesting.

我的意思是，谷歌推出安卓并开放系统，这在一定程度上推动了苹果。开发者开始意识到，虽然全球有那么多电脑和网页浏览器，但手机的数量要多得多，覆盖面更广。

I mean, Google kinda pushes them towards this with when they make Android open and developers start to realize the massive reach with, know, there are however many computers there are PCs there are in the world and web browsers, but there's a lot more phones.

对。

Yeah.

而且他们能触达庞大的消费者群体。

And they can reach this huge consumer base.

所以这真的有点像谷歌在宣示立场。

So this really is sort of like Google's kinda putting a flag in the ground Mhmm.

就是说，我们是开放的。

And saying, hey, we're open.

这有两层意思。

That means two things.

我们对整个硬件和供应链生态系统开放，但从长远来看，更重要的是，我们对开发者开放。

We're open to the entire hardware and supply chain ecosystem, but much more importantly in the long term, we're open to developers.

那是在2007年11月。

So that was that was November 2007.

但你要记得，他们意识到自己没法跟iPhone竞争。

But remember, realized like they couldn't compete with the iPhone.

所以他们直到差不多一年后，也就是2008年10月，才推出了第一款安卓手机。

So they end up not shipping the first Android phone until almost a year later in October 2008.

那时候就是HTC Dream，在美国叫T-Mobile G1。

And that's when the, the HTC Dream, slash in The US, the T Mobile g one

没错。

That's right.

那是第一款安卓手机，就是那个备受期待的谷歌手机，但还是出来了。

Is the first Android phone, the the much vaunted anticipated Google phone And that's still comes out.

那款还是有键盘的。

That's still at a keyboard.

对吧？

Right?

还是有键盘。

Still at keyboard.

所以它是触屏的。

So it was a touch screen.

对。

Mhmm.

而且它上面还有一个滚轮。

And it had a it had a scroll wheel on it.

没错。

That's right.

还有实体硬件按键，这些按键在安卓上存在了很长时间。

And physical hardware buttons, which were part of Android for a long time.

然后它还有一个滑出的全键盘，很像Sidekick那样，从设备侧面水平滑出来。

And then it had a slide out full QWERTY keyboard, much like much like the Sidekick that slid out, horizontally from the device.

非常有意思。

Super interesting.

所以它看起来跟iPhone完全不一样。

So it doesn't really look anything like the iPhone.

它算是自成一派，但这就是第一款真正上市的安卓手机。

It's kinda its own thing, but this is this is the first, the first Android phone that finally comes to market.

由HTC为T-Mobile制造，正好赶在2008年假期前推出。

So with T Mobile made by h t HTC, and it comes out sort of just in time for the holidays of 2008.

它并没有引起多大的轰动。

It doesn't really make much of a splash.

要知道，那时候iPhone的出货量增长按今天的标准来看算慢的，但在当时，简直是飞速发展。

Know, at this point, the iPhone, you know, the growth in iPhone shipments by today's standards are slow, but at the time, it was, like, completely taking off.

对。

Yeah.

很明显，iPhone大获成功。

Clear that this was a hit.

我记得史蒂夫·乔布斯在台上说，他们的目标——我想是iPhone第一年的目标——是占据手机市场的1%。

And I remember Steve Jobs on stage saying that their goal for the I think it was their goal for the first year of the iPhone was to capture 1% of phones.

我不记得他说的是智能手机市场。

I I don't think he said smartphones.

我觉得他是故意的。

I think he intentionally

我觉得，我相信他确实是故意的。

I think he I believe it was intentionally

因为他们不想承认智能手机是一个品类，就像他们从来不承认上网本一样，或者……

because they they didn't want to acknowledge that smartphones were a category, much like they never acknowledged netbooks or

对。

Right.

我觉得，回头看真的很惊人，他们当时的期望只是拿到1%的份额。

I think, like, it's it's amazing looking back, like, their their hope was to get 1%.

而且我觉得，实际上第一年他们就是按这个目标来追踪的。

And I think that's that's kinda what they tracked actually that that first year.

但之后的爆发，真是谁都没想到。

But then the explosion after that, never could have predicted.

然后市场就彻底爆发了。

And then and then the market just completely exploded.

所以实际上，直到2009年假日季前后，谷歌——谁知道谷歌在背后推动了多少——但基本上，除了苹果之外，整个无线电话行业生态系统才意识到他们面临一个大问题。

So so it wasn't actually then until around the holiday season of 2009 that Google, you know, who who knows how much Google drove this, but essentially the rest of the wireless phone industry ecosystem except for Apple realized they have a big problem.

是的。

Yep.

一个非常非常大的问题，因为iPhone就要来了。

A big, big problem because the iPhone is on its way.

你知道，那时候3G已经推出了。

You know, at this point, three g has been launched.

所以，那是初代iPhone的一大亮点。

So, that was one of the big things with the original iPhone.

哦，就像，它很棒，但是，有点慢。

Oh, like, it's great, but, like, it's slow.

而且3G已经出来了，但苹果的情况是，他们研发iPhone太久了，以至于到2007年7月他们能推向市场的只有一款Edge手机。

And three g was out, but Apple it was one of those things where Apple had been working on the iPhone for so long that the only thing they could get to market by July 2007 was an an Edge phone.

Edge。

Edge.

对。

Yep.

然后呢？

And then what?

08年就是3G了。

O eight was three g.

3.5G。

Point five g.

没错。

That's right.

记得吧，Ben。

Remember, Ben.

没错。

That's right.

到了2009年，苹果又向开发者开放了iOS，所以那也不再是优势了。

And by 2009, Apple then opened up iOS to developers, so that wasn't even an an advantage of anymore.

而且，记得那时候iPhone在美国还是AT&T独家销售的。

And and the amount of so remember, iPhone was still exclusive to AT and T at this point in The US.

对。

Mhmm.

而且AT&T那时候用户数量猛增，其实在iPhone之前，我记得它就已经是美国最大的电话网络了。

And AT and T is just raking in subscribers at this point becoming it was already I believe it was already the largest phone network before the iPhone.

而这时候，Verizon、Sprint、T-Mobile都面临巨大的问题。

And at this point, you know, Verizon, Sprint, T Mobile, have huge, huge issues.

是的。

Yeah.

那绝对是美国企业史上最成功的合作或独家协议之一，AT&T就像绑在iPhone这枚火箭上一样。

That's gotta be one of the best partnership or exclusivity agreements in the history of the American corporation is is AT and T strapping itself to the the iPhone as a rocket.

对。

Yep.

我觉得，这件事有多重要，从反面就能看出来——就是如果没拿到这个独家协议，后果有多严重。

I mean, the the thing that paints it in my mind for how, like, how big a deal that was is how big a deal the opposite was.

比如，大家当时对Verizon版iPhone的期待有多高。

Like, how widely anticipated the Verizon iPhone was.

当Verizon版iPhone发布时，我那些不是AT&T的朋友们有多疯狂，那种积压已久的渴望简直了。

And when the Verizon iPhone came out, how crazy all my friends went that were non AT and T with all this incredible pent up demand

有趣的是，到了2009年假期，产品周期里终于有了足够的时间，Verizon、谷歌和其他所有手机制造商都意识到他们得采取行动了。

for Which, which is, interesting that by holiday two thousand nine, there's finally been enough time in the product cycle that Verizon, Google, everybody else, all the handset makers realized they gotta do something.

于是Verizon在2009年推出了Droid。

And so Verizon launches the droid in 2009.

而且他们每次提到“Droid”这个词都要给卢卡斯影业付钱。

And they paid Lucasfilm every single time the word droid was mentioned.

是不是很厉害？

Isn't that amazing?

每本杂志广告的底部都有。

Bottom of every magazine ad.

他们当时居然同意了，真是太棒了。

It's it's so awesome that they were like, yeah.

算了。

Screw it.

值得的。

It's worth it.

这确实值得，而且，说实话，在很多方面，这款手机是超前的。

It's total it's worth and and, I mean, this was in a lot of ways, this was a phone ahead of its time.

对。

Yep.

但整个定位就是针对iPhone的。

But the whole positioning was against the iPhone here.

这个广告系列叫“Droid能做到”。

It was the the campaign was called droid does.

这就像，你知道，老版的Mac和PC广告反过来了一样。

And, this was like the, you know, the old Mac and PC campaigns been in reverse.

就像在说，你的iPhone做不到这个，但Droid能做到。

It was like, well, your iPhone doesn't do x, but droid does.

没错。

That's right.

而且这就像是智能手机大战全面升温的时候，现在我们基本上已经稳定下来了，你知道，安卓大概占了80%的用户，iPhone占了20%，但是用iPhone的人花钱买应用什么的，比安卓用户多得多。

And that that this is like the full swing of the the smartphone wars heating up, where now we sort of settled into this place where, you know, Android's got about 80% of the people, iPhone's got about 20% of the people, but iPhone people pay, you know, for apps and and much more so than Android people.

有意思的是，这几乎达到了一个，怎么说呢，不是和平条约，而是，我们原本以为智能手机大战会有一个赢家，会是一场疯狂的五年之争，然后某个人

And it's interesting how it's reached this almost, like like, not a peace treaty, but, like, it's it's, like, we thought there was gonna be one winner in this smartphone wars, and it was gonna be a crazy five year thing, and one person

中了彩票。

won lottery.

会像微软和苹果那样重演。

Gonna be Microsoft and Apple all over again.

对。

Right.

对。

Right.

有意思的是，我们达到了这种平衡状态，世界以多平台的方式存在，而且至少在这些年里是可持续的。

And it's interesting how we've reached this equilibrium where, like, the the world exists in a a multi platform way, kind of sustainably for at least this this set of years.

就是现在这个时刻。

This this moment in time.

对。

Yep.

而且在那最初的“Droid Does”广告里，他们故意让人困惑，你可以买到安卓手机，但它不是谷歌出的，也不叫安卓。

And and then the the in that initial Droid Does thing, they they intentionally like, it it was confusing to people that you could get an Android, but it wasn't from Google, and it wasn't called an Android.

对。

Yep.

所以我觉得他们是有意为之，想说，你知道吗？

And so I think it was like an intentional move to say, you know what?

我们就干脆顺着这个来。

We're just gonna, like, just, like, lean into that.

这款手机就叫Droid。

The phone's gonna be called a droid.

这是我们主打宣传的那款。

It's the main one we're gonna market.

我们不会让安卓成为面向消费者的品牌。

We're not gonna Android be a consumer brand.

对。

Yep.

而且令人惊讶的是，

And it was amazing how how

还有一点很重要，别忘了，那款Droid是谁做的？

many and important to remember too, who made the the droid?

是摩托罗拉，我们一会儿会讲到。

It was Motorola, which we'll get to in a sec.

哦，对。

Oh, yeah.

是的。

Yeah.

但我想说的是，令人惊讶的是，大多数人都会问，你用的是iPhone还是Droid？

But as guess my point is, like, it's amazing how it was in most people's lexicon to ask, do you have an iPhone or a droid?

对。

Yep.

不是安卓。

It wasn't Android.

是Droid。

It was a droid.

是的。

Yeah.

所以，Ben，你说的这些，我的意思是，这就像是移动领域的圣战，从Droid开始打响的。

So, yeah, everything you're you're saying, Ben, I mean, this was like, these were the holy wars of mobile that that got kicked off with the droid.

所以基本上从2010年到差不多2012年，就是一场竞赛，所有不是苹果的生态都在竞相模仿苹果，然后尽量超越，哪怕只是达到同等水平。

And and so basically from 2010 to kinda two thousand twelve ish, there's just this race where everybody who's not Apple in the ecosystem is racing to copy Apple and then try and surpass if they can, but even just get to parity.

嗯。

Mhmm.

而到了那段时间的尾声，你就看到三星真正崛起了。

And that's you know, towards the end of that time, that's when you see Samsung really emerging.

我是说，他们真是最不要脸的，直接把iPhone的东西整个抄过来，但居然成功了。

I mean, they were the most shameless, just literally ripped wholesale everything from the iPhone, but it worked.

而且速度特别快。

And so fast.

苹果刚发布什么，两个月后三星的团队就熬夜赶工，然后赶紧推向市场，接着就宣布这东西有了。

Like, two months after Apple would announce something, like, some team at at Samsung would get to it work all night, and then they'd rush it to market, and then they'd announce that it exists.

然后呢，你知道，可能你能从供应链拿到货，也可能拿不到。

And then, like, you know, there'd be maybe you could get them from the supply chain, maybe you couldn't.

但他们就是先立个标杆，表示三星也有这个功能。

But, like, they put a stake in the ground that, like, yes, Samsung has this too.

你从头到尾都能看到，比如Touch ID。

And you see it all the way through, like, Touch ID.

他们还有那个

Like, they had the

滑动解锁。

Slide to unlock.

关于这个，当时可是闹得挺大的。

Like, there was a big fight about that.

你知道吗？

You know?

对。

Yep.

对。

Yep.

而且这里面还牵扯到很多恩怨情仇。

And and and to the to the bitterness involved here.

所以，你知道，那时候乔布斯已经快走到生命尽头了，后来沃尔特·艾萨克森写的那本传记，真是本了不起的书，里面就有他的一段话。

So, you know, Steve Jobs is towards the end of his life at this point, and, and the Walter Isaacson, you know, biography that comes out, which is this incredible book, he has this quote in there.

他说，如果需要的话，我愿意用尽最后一口气，也要花光苹果银行里那400亿美元。

He says, I will spend my last dying breath if I need to, and I will spend every penny of Apple's 40,000,000,000 in the bank.

有意思的是，当时苹果银行里还真就只有400亿美元。

Funny that at the time, Apple only had 40,000,000,000 in the bank.

这还挺可爱的。

Like, that's cute.

对吧？

Right?

为了纠正这个错误，我要毁掉安卓，因为它是个偷来的产品。

To right this wrong, I'm going to destroy Android because it's a stolen product.

我甚至愿意为此发动核战争。

I'm willing to go thermonuclear war on this.

这太不可思议了。

This is incredible.

是的。

Yeah.

但这正是最激烈的时候，你知道的，然后那本书出版了，接着就是维克和冈纳。

But but this was this was the height, you know, and and so, you know, that comes out and and then, and then Vic and Gunnar.

那个人啊。

That guy.

太厉害了。

Incredible.

真不可思议，想想他活着的时候，世界跟现在差别有多大。

It's amazing, like, how much the world has changed though from his vision, you know, when he was alive, and how different things are now.

你知道，那句名言，乔布斯说过，如果你看到手写笔，那我们就搞砸了。

You know, like, the famous quote, like, if you see that Steve said, if you see a stylist, we blew it.

几个星期前，我确实听了蒂姆·库克的采访，他们问了他，我忘了是谁做的，但在苹果最近那波公关热潮中，他们问库克关于那件事，想逼他承认，你们是不是搞砸了？

Did hear the interview with Tim Cook a couple weeks ago that that they asked they, I forget who did it, but the in in Apple's recent little PR rush, they asked Tim Cook about that exact thing, and they're trying to push him on the point that, like, are you guys blowing it?

然后蒂姆开始说，首先，那叫笔，不叫手写笔。

And and Tim starts with, well, first of all, it's a pencil, not a stylus.

太喜欢了。

Love it.

我太喜欢苹果的营销了。

I love Apple marketing.

乔布斯会怎么说呢？

What would Steve have said?

但蒂姆不是史蒂夫，这才是关键。

But Tim isn't Steve, which is the point.

苹果也不是当年的苹果了。

And Apple is not.

蒂姆最近几年确实把安卓生态系统称为“有毒的地狱炖菜”。

Tim did recently, you know, in the last couple of years, refer to the Android ecosystem as a toxic hell stew.

我记得他提到那是从某个作家那里引用的一句话，他们把它放到了苹果的舞台上。

I think he pointed out it was like a quote ripped from a writer that they put up on the stage at Apple.

所以，谷歌不会就这么忍气吞声。

So, you you know, Google doesn't just, like, take this lying down.

他们会反击的。

They, you know, they strike back.

于是，维克·冈多特拉，一位长期高管，对。

And, and so Vic Gundotra, who is a longtime exec Mhmm.

在谷歌，而且我记得他曾经是Google Plus的创始人或负责人。

At, at Google and, I believe founder of or in charge of Google Plus at one point.

那是他在那里的一个低谷。

That was that was a low mark on on his, his time there.

但在2010年谷歌的IO大会上，维克被问及此事，以及史蒂夫对苹果感受的评论。

But, at at IO, Google's big conference in 2010, Vicks, you know, asked about this and, Steve's, you know, quote in Apple's feelings about it.

然后他说，如果谷歌真的行动了，这是他的原话，如果谷歌真的行动了，我们就会面临一个严酷的未来。

And and he says, if Google did act, this is a quote, if Google did act, we faced a draconian future.

一个只有一个人、一家公司、一台设备、一个运营商可供选择的未来。

A future where one man, one company, one device, one carrier would be our only choice.

那样的未来我们不想要。

That's a future we don't want.

对。

Yeah.

这是一种非常高尚的应对方式。

It's a very, like, noble way to approach

就像苹果那个著名的1984广告一样。

It's like the the the famous Apple 1984 commercial.

就像苹果现在成了屏幕上那个大人物，而

It's like Apple is now the, you know, the man talking on the screen and

对。

Yep.

你知道，谷歌和安卓正朝它扔锤子。

You know, Google and Android is throwing the hammer at it.

是的。

Yeah.

如果你能找到一种把自己定位成弱势者的方式，即使你在搜索领域拥有垄断地位，并且是世界上最大的科技公司之一，天哪，你也应该这么做。

If you can find a way to position yourself as an underdog, even if you have a monopoly in search and are one of the largest technology companies in the world, by god, you should do it.

完全正确。

Absolutely.

我是说，他们简直比苹果还苹果。

I mean, they're literally out appling Apple Yep.

在苹果自己的游戏里。

At Apple's own game here.

所以，你知道，那真的是一场战争。

And and and so, you know, it it was a a war.

当时，你知道，媒体上每个人，科技界的每个人都在问，安卓会赢吗？

And at the time, you know, so many everybody in the press, everybody in the tech world was, you know, is it Android gonna win?

iOS会赢吗？

Is iOS gonna win?

会发生什么？

What's gonna happen?

我们该怎么办？初创公司，你知道，当时我们的投资组合公司，还有我们在谈新投资的时候，都会问，你们打算为哪个平台开发？

What should I and startups, you know, at the time, we our portfolio companies, and as we we were talking to new investments, it's like, well, what are you gonna develop for?

那时候这是个很大的问题，因为同时为两个平台开发真的很难。

Like, it was a big question then because it was really hard to develop for both.

对。

Right.

我想现在是个好时机，对新听众说几句。

I guess it's probably a good time to say for new listeners.

大卫是麦德罗纳创投集团的风险投资人。

David's a VC here at, at Madrona Venture Group.

这个周末我们在其他办公室录制。

We're we're recording at other offices this weekend.

我在街那头的先锋广场实验室，我们是一家创业工作室。

And, I'm over at Pioneer Square Labs just down the street, and we're a we're a startup studio.

所以了解一下我们的背景和正在做的事情，可能会对大家有帮助。

So that's probably helpful to have some some context on, like, who who we are and what we're doing this.

对。

Yeah.

还有几个额外的趣闻，其中一个算是历史的小巧合，但实在太有趣了，不在这里提一下不行。

And a couple other side notes that, one that is more a quirk of history, but it's just too fun not to talk about here.

2010年8月，HTC收购了Beats Audio的多数股权。

In August 2010, HTC acquires a majority stake in Beats, Beats Audio.

因此，从2011年到2012年，大概到2013年左右，你还能在亚马逊上买到这些东西，这真的很神奇。

And as a result of that from kinda, you know, 2011 to 2012, 2013 ish, you can still go buy these things on Amazon, which is amazing.

我们会在节目说明里放上链接。

We will link to this in the show notes.

市面上确实有Beats品牌的安卓手机，就是HTC的手机。

There are Beats branded Android phones out there on the market, HTC phones.

我有点想买一部，然后带去苹果的下一次会议，假装那是我的手机，看看会发生什么。

I kinda wanna buy one and, like, bring it to my next meeting at Apple, like, pretending it's, like, my phone and see what happens.

那太棒了。

That would be amazing.

完全是历史上的一个趣事。

Total, like, quirk of history.

我是说，HTC有一段时间卖安卓手机时，会捆绑Beats耳机。

I mean, there were, HTC was was bundling Beats headphones with their Android phones for a while when they were selling them.

很难想象在今天，Beats已经是苹果的一部分了。

Hard to imagine that in today's world of, you know, Beats being part of Apple.

我知道。

I know.

这也让我意识到科技圈其实有多小。

Also makes me realize just like just how small the technology world is.

我觉得我们在节目里经常聊到这个，但不管是马克·劳里，他在亚马逊工作过，亚马逊收购了他上一家公司，然后他发誓要搞垮他们，还是从PayPal出来的那些公司，或者是从卢卡斯影业出来的Photoshop和皮克斯。

I feel like we talk about this a lot on the show, but like whether it's, you know, Mark Laurie, you know, had worked at Amazon and Amazon had acquired his last company and then he's vowing to destroy them or, all the companies that came out of PayPal, or Photoshop and Pixar that came out of Lucasfilm.

真的，在这个经济领域里，世界真的很小。

Like, it's really a it's a small world in this corner of the economy here.

确实。

It is.

而且，还有件挺有意思的事。

And and the other it's funny.

这些大概算是科技主题吧，就是节目的主题。

These are like not I guess they're sort of tech themes, like themes of the show.

有意思的是，有些事情在我们心里感觉持续了很久，但实际上也就几年而已。

It it's funny how long things seem in our mind and how short they were a number of years.

比如，苹果在2007年推出iPhone的时候，安卓还没发布，他们之间也还没有开战。

Like, when Apple launched the iPhone in 2007, Android had not been announced yet, and they they were not at war.

他们关系好到，比如埃里克·施密特

They were so friendly that, like, Eric Schmidt

都在苹果的董事会里。

was on Apple's board.

在iPhone发布的时候，他还上台讲了谷歌会成为iPhone的重要组成部分。

Stage in, in at the launch of the iPhone and talked about how Google was gonna be an integral part of the iPhone.

确实如此。

And it was.

我是说，谷歌地图当时可是个重磅功能，

I mean, Google Maps was a huge like, that was a tent pole feature of

更别提谷歌搜索了，这个我们一会儿再聊。

Not to mention Google Search, which we will get into in a minute.

没错。

Indeed.

但令人难以置信的是，这些公司这么快就反目成仇，彻底分道扬镳了。

But it's incredible how fast these companies became at each other's throats and completely separated.

我是说，如果看看这些公司之间的直接竞争关系，比如回到二十年前，苹果和微软是直接竞争对手，互相恨之入骨，而谷歌就像一个仁慈的、不插手、服务所有人的团体。

I mean, if if you the the way that companies are direct competitors, like, if you go back twenty years, Apple and Microsoft are direct competitors and hate each other, and Google's like like, this benevolent, you know, hands off, we serve all group.

而且很快，从2007年到2009年，苹果和谷歌就变成了针锋相对的关系，再快进到今天，微软的服务到处都是，遍布各个平台。

And in a very in very short order, from 2007 to 2009, it became Apple and Google at each other's throats, and fast forward to today, where, like, Microsoft services are all over all these platforms.

而且苹果在很多事情上都在和微软合作。

And and, like, Apple's partnering with Microsoft on a lot of things.

还有，对，另一个疯狂的例子，苹果和IBM建立了大型企业合作，世界变化真快啊。

And and, yeah, another crazy example, like, Apple launching this big enterprise partnership with IBM, like how fast the world changes.

是的。

Yep.

而你正好身处其中。

And and you were in the middle of this.

我是说，你是Office for iPad最初的团队成员之一。

I mean, you were one of the original folks on Office for iPad.

确实如此。

It was.

是的，确实如此。

It was yeah.

那真是一个了不起的项目。

That was a it was a heck of a project.

我们稍后会详细讨论这个。

So we'll get more into this in a minute.

但我觉得，对我来说，这有点像提前展望科技主题。

But but I think it was I mean, is a little flash forward to tech themes for me.

但我认为，之所以会发生这一切，是因为所有这些大型科技公司突然意识到，这标志着一个新领域和新市场的开启，那就是移动市场，它将成为科技领域乃至全世界有史以来最大的市场。

But, I think the reason this was happening was like all these big tech companies realized all of a sudden that this was the opening of a new frontier and a new market, the mobile market that was gonna be literally the biggest market that technology and maybe the world had ever seen.

对。

Yeah.

我的意思是，因为苹果在这段时间里成为了世界上最有价值的公司。

Mean, because Apple becomes the world's most valuable company during this time period.

所以所有这些公司都意识到，首先会有几亿人在美国，然后是全世界十亿人，接着是几十亿人，最终是地球上的每一个人。

So all these companies are realizing that you're gonna have, you know, first a couple 100,000,000 people in The United States, and then a billion people around the world, and and and then and then multiple billions of people, and ultimately every person in the world Mhmm.

等到最终状态，你知道，还要再过几年，人们才会开始上网、买智能手机、第一次接触科技。

When we get to the end state, you know, still a couple years hence from now, is gonna be coming online, buying a smartphone, having access to technology for the first time.

而且，你知道，尽管苹果和谷歌之前关系很好，但突然间，这变成了一场争夺市场的竞赛。

And, you know, as friendly as Apple and Google were before this, all of a sudden it's a race to go capture this market.

但我认为他们犯的错误，或者至少我不知道是不是错误，但他们最初打的仗不是正确的仗。

But I think the mistake that they made is, or at least that I don't know, there was a mistake, but the fight that they were fighting at first wasn't the right fight.

他们争夺的是硬件层面。

They were fighting for the, like, hardware layer.

对。

Right.

而且，嗯，问题是，谷歌一开始是这样做的吗？

And Well, was the question is, was Google doing that at first?

比如，为什么谷歌会这样做？这算是我们从历史和事实部分过渡到我们的分析部分了。

Like, why why did Google so this is this is sort of as we transition from the the the the history and facts into more of, like, our analysis portion.

就我们今天的情况来看，很明显，安卓存在的理由是为了防止苹果成为用户使用谷歌服务的入口。

Where we are today, it's very clear that the reason that Android needs to exist is to prevent Apple from being the front door for users to use Google services.

谷歌不能放弃这种控制权，首先，万一人们会使用其他服务而不是谷歌的服务，尤其是谷歌搜索，那可是他们所有收入的来源。

Like, Google can't afford to give up that control, number one, in case, you know, people are going to use other services instead of Google services, namely Google Search where all their money comes from or all their revenue comes from.

对。

Yep.

其次，和那些给谷歌带来流量的人签有协议，我现在就直接把这个数字说出来吧。

And secondarily, there is an agreement that gets signed with people who are sending traffic to Google, and I may as well just come out and and and start with this number right now.

谷歌搜索收入的34%来自他们的AdSense。

34% of Google search revenue from their their AdSense.

对吧？

Right?

嗯，是AdWords。

Well, AdWords.

所以，Ben提到的，对于我们的新听众来说，我们节目喜欢的一件事就是诉讼。

So, what Ben's referring to, one of the for our new listeners, one of the things that we love on this show is lawsuits.

不是针对我们的，而是我们报道的公司之间的，因为诉讼中会爆出各种有趣的事情。

Not not not targeted at us, but, between the the companies that we cover because all sorts of really interesting things come out in lawsuits.

在过去几年里，甲骨文一直在起诉谷歌，因为谷歌和安卓使用了Java以及Java的API来开发安卓系统。

And in, over the last few years, Oracle has been, waging a lawsuit against Google for Google's and Android's use of Java in creating and Java's APIs in creating Android.

在那场诉讼中，有一件事被曝光了，那就是谷歌为了把谷歌搜索设为iPhone的默认搜索引擎，付给了苹果多少钱。

And, one of the things that came out in that lawsuit is how much money Google pays Apple for for having Google search as the default search on the iPhone.

这真的很惊人。

And it's pretty incredible.

对。

Yeah.

戴夫和我仔细研究了那份诉讼文件，然后想到了一件很惊人的事情，那就是这可不是一笔固定的费用。

The the amazing thing that Dave and I were were were, like, looking pouring over the lawsuit and thinking about this, it's not a a flat fee.

苹果能从他们平台上产生的所有搜索收入中分到34%。

Like, Apple gets 34% of of all the search revenue that comes from their platform.

所以，是的。

So Yeah.

大概就是34%左右。

Somewhere in the neighborhood of 34%.

当时差不多就是这个数。

It was at one time around that.

这部分诉讼内容让谷歌很紧张，所以被保密了，但有一段时间是公开的，说明了这到底是怎么运作的。

It's a lot of this part of the lawsuit Google freaked out about and had sealed, but for a moment, was public how how this worked.

所以，根据高盛2015年的估计，谷歌从移动搜索中获得了大约150亿美元的收入。

So in in 2015, estimates from Goldman Sachs are that Google did, about $15,000,000,000 of revenue from their their mobile search.

而苹果在全球市场份额中占了大约18%。

And so Apple, has about 18% of the global market share.

所以如果你算一下，按这个比例，大约是9.18亿美元，或者根据这些文件披露的数据，谷歌付给苹果大约10亿美元，让苹果引导用户使用谷歌搜索。

So if you kinda figure out what that comes to, it's about 918,000,000 by that calculation, or as released in the these documents, about a billion dollars that, that Google paid to Apple for Apple to be using or directing people to Google search.

然后你开始思考，现在的安卓策略很明显就是基本上免费获取客户。

So then you start thinking about, okay, the strategy for Android as it is today is very clearly to basically get free customers.

基本上，就是让已经是谷歌客户的人直接使用谷歌进行搜索。

Basically, people that are already Google's customers to directly interface with Google and and search.

这样，谷歌就不需要为了获取这些用户而向任何人支付收入分成。

And that way, Google doesn't have to pay that that revenue split to anybody else for access to those users.

有件事我直到开始为这期节目做调研才真正意识到，但想想还挺让人震惊的。

Something that I didn't really realize until we started doing the research for this episode, but is kinda mind blowing if you think about it.

比如，苹果从iPhone上产生的谷歌AdWords广告收入中抽成。

Like, a, Apple is getting a percentage of AdWord Google AdWords revenue that happens on the iPhone.

这太疯狂了，第一。

Like, that's crazy, one.

但第二，现在对谷歌来说一切都说得通了。

But two, like, it all makes sense for Google now.

比如，只要人们用安卓手机，对。

Like, to the extent that people use Android phones Mhmm.

或者在iPhone上用Chrome浏览器而不是Safari，对。

Or use the Chrome browser on the iPhone instead of Safari Mhmm.

或者通过其他各种方式，在谷歌拥有或至少控制下的平台上搜索，而不是在那些需要分成收入的平台上。

Or any one of a number of ways that people are searching on platforms that are owned by Google versus or at least controlled by Google versus other platforms where they have to pay out, you know, revenue shares.

这简直就是不用动脑子的事。

Like, it's it's just a it's a no brainer.

对。

Yeah.

基本上，谷歌就是靠人们搜索然后点击广告来赚钱的公司。

Like, the case for like, basically, Google is a company that makes money when people search and then click on ads.

就是这样，没错。

Like, that is that is Yep.

他们做了很多

They do all

其他事情，比如在非谷歌的平台上搜索。

these other things search on butter.

甚至间接地，不在谷歌的平台上。

Properties that are not Google, even indirectly.

比如，他们用谷歌搜索，但用的是Safari浏览器。

Like, they're searching on Google, but they're doing it in the Safari browser.

没错。

Yep.

每次发生这种情况，谷歌都得交一笔税。

Google has to pay a tax every time that happens.

对。

Yeah.

所以基本上，安卓存在的全部原因就是让谷歌不用再为自己已有的客户付费。

And so there Google basically is is, the entire reason that Android exists is so that Google doesn't need to pay for access to their own existing customers.

而移动设备做的事情是，它插入了这个新的楔子，你知道，谷歌本来就已经和用户建立了这种关系，每个人打开电脑，谷歌就是他们的主页，他们会在上面搜索，或者通过他们签的各种协议，谷歌被内置到浏览器里。

And what mobile did was it inserted this new wedge into you know, Google already had this relationship where everybody, you know, opened up their computer and Google was their their homepage and they would search, or it was built into browsers through all these agreements they had cut.

移动设备打开了一个机会，突然之间，出现了一个全新的平台，所有那些已经转向这个平台的人，以及所有那些正在……

Mobile opens this opportunity for all of a sudden, there's this whole new platform with with all these people that have switched over to it and all these people that are

第一次上网的人。

Coming online for the first time.

第一次。

For the first time.

对。

Yeah.

而且谷歌不仅要确保这些地方不用竞争对手的产品，哪怕它们再小，还得付钱，你知道，从收入里分一杯羹，才能获得在那里作为默认搜索引擎的特权。

And not only does Google have to make sure that those places don't use their competitors, small smaller as they may be, but they actually have to pay to get the you know, pay a cut of their revenue for the the privilege of being the the default search there.

所以当你退一步看，安卓的策略，Chrome存在的理由，这些其实都是一回事，就是为了确保没有人插在搜索广告点击产生的收入和他们的客户之间。

So when when you kinda take a step back, like, the the strategy for Android, the strategy for the the reason Chrome exists, These things are are all the same, and it's to make sure that no one else is inserted between the revenue generated by clicking on ads from search and their customers.

这挺有意思的。

And it's interesting.

对吧？

Right?

就像华尔街和很多其他分析谷歌的人，他们总是挑谷歌的毛病，说，哎呀，这家公司除了AdWords什么都做不好。

Like, Wall Street and plenty of other analysts that are looking at Google, they always throw stones at Google and they say like, oh, come on, like this company can't succeed at anything except AdWords.

他们的产品都不赚钱。

Like none of their products make any money.

安卓也不赚钱。

Android doesn't make any money.

嗯。

Mhmm.

就像我们之前聊到的，YouTube也不赚钱，虽然我对我们给YouTube的评分还是很有信心的，但Chrome也不赚钱。

YouTube doesn't make any money as we talked about, which I I still feel good about our grade on YouTube, but, Chrome doesn't make any money.

但顺便说一句，你给的是C。

But you have a c for the record.

对。

Yep.

但事实是，像Android和Chrome这样的东西，对谷歌来说有巨大的经济价值。

But, but the reality is things like Android, things like Chrome are huge economic value to to Google.

对。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

我是说，这为谷歌的业务提供了防御性。

It's I mean, it's, it's providing defensibility to Google's business.

没错。

Yep.

所以我来稍微算一下这笔账。

And so I to to to carry out that calculation a little a little bit.

那么反过来看，既然谷歌有80%的市场份额，你看那80%在手机上搜索的人，每年给谷歌带来150亿美元的搜索收入。如果把这34%不用付给别人的部分算进去，安卓实际上每年帮他们省下40亿美元，因为谷歌不用为这部分流量付费。

So then if you run the flip side of that, since Google has 80% market share, so you look at the 80% of people that are searching on phones and generating that that $15,000,000,000 of of Google search revenue a year right now, If you take that 34% that they don't have to pay out to other people, Android is effectively saving them $4,000,000,000 a year just on that because Google doesn't have to pay for that traffic.

这确实很了不起。

Which is pretty incredible.

好了，听众朋友们。

Alright, listeners.

现在是时候感谢我们的老朋友，ServiceNow了。

Now is a great time to thank our longtime friend of the show, ServiceNow.

如果你在运营一家大型企业，AI代理可能已经遍布每个团队，部署它们已经不再是难事了。

If you are running a large enterprise, AI agents are likely spread across every team, and deploying them is, no longer the hard part.

对。

Yeah.

难的是知道它们有什么权限，员工用它们来做什么，或者AI在做什么决定。

The hard part is knowing what permissions they have, what employees are using them for, or what decisions AI is making.

企业大规模使用AI，安全问题可不是小事。

AI security for an enterprise at scale is not a small concern.

比如，风险

Like, the risks

是真实存在的。

are real.

没错。

Exactly.

而AI的挑战在于治理、安全、衡量，以及确保它真正带来价值。

And the challenge with AI is governing it, securing it, measuring it, and making sure that it actually delivers value.

这就是ServiceNow打造AI控制塔的原因。

That is why ServiceNow built the AI control tower.

对。

Yep.

AI控制塔为企业提供了一个统一平台，可以查看、管理、治理和优化整个业务中的AI应用。

AI control tower gives enterprises a single place to see, manage, govern, and optimize AI across the entire business.

而且它适用于任何AI，不只是他们自己的。

And it works with any AI, not just theirs.

你网络上的每个设备，每个系统的每个权限，每个AI代理，都能在一个地方看到并确保安全。

Every device on your network, every permission across every system, every AI agent visible and secure in one place.

ServiceNow能做到这一点，是因为他们花了二十多年构建企业的运营骨干，包括工作流程、治理、审批、安全控制以及机构知识，这些支撑着IT、人力资源、客户服务、财务和安全等领域的实际工作方式。

And ServiceNow can do this because they've spent more than twenty years building the operational backbone of the enterprise, the workflows, governance, approval, security controls, and institutional knowledge that power how work actually gets done across IT, HR, customer service, finance, and security.

ServiceNow每年已经运行超过1000亿个工作流程，并为财富500强中超过85%的企业处理数万亿笔交易。

ServiceNow already runs more than a 100,000,000,000 workflows annually and trillions of transactions for more than 85% of the Fortune 500.

所以当公司需要在一个地方治理企业规模的AI时，他们是在一个已经处于其业务运营核心的平台上进行构建。

So when companies need a place to govern AI at enterprise scale, they're building on a platform at the center of how their business already operates.

而且未来的情况不会是只有一个AI，而是会有成千上万的AI代理在公司各个职能部门中工作。

And in a future that isn't going to be one AI, it's going to be thousands of AI agents working across every function of the company.

但问题是，谁来管理所有这些AI呢？

But the question is, who's managing them all?

所以，如果你想将AI的雄心转化为实际的业务成果，并确保其安全、可靠地大规模运行，就去看看servicenow.com/acquired，告诉他们Ben和David推荐你来的。

So if you're trying to turn AI ambition into real business outcomes and make it work safely, securely at scale, go check out servicenow.com/acquired and tell them that Ben and David sent you.

好的。

Alright.

快速说两件事，把历史和事实收个尾，然后我们进入收购类别。

Two things real quick to wrap up history and facts, and then we'll move on to, the acquisition category.

第一，我之前提到过摩托罗拉。

One, I mentioned Motorola earlier.

谷歌做了一个决定，这个决定在某些方面非常聪明，但在另一些方面又非常愚蠢，他们在2011年8月以125亿美元收购了摩托罗拉。

So Google makes, this move that is in some ways completely brilliant and in other ways completely boneheaded, where they buy Motorola in August 2011 for $12,500,000,000.

他们当时说，这么做的主要原因是摩托罗拉的专利组合。

And they say at the time that, you know, the primary driver of this was Motorola's patent portfolio.

这就是聪明的地方。

And and this is the brilliant part of it.

你知道，苹果、甲骨文，我们之前已经谈过，还有微软，以及其他很多公司，还有手机厂商。

You know, Apple, Oracle, as we've already talked about, Microsoft, many others, the phone companies.

这个领域开始出现大量诉讼，大家都在执行专利、捍卫专利，而谷歌比这些公司年轻得多，没有他们那样的专利储备实力。

There starts to be a lot of litigation happening in this space and people are enforcing patents and defending patents and Google being a much younger company than these other these other firms didn't have the kind of patent bench strength that they did.

所以谷歌收购了摩托罗拉，这是一家非常老的公司，得到了他们所有的专利组合，这有助于保护谷歌，比如在甲骨文案中。

So Google buys Motorola, very old company, gets all of their patent portfolio and that helps defend Google and things like the Oracle case.

对。

Mhmm.

但交易的第二部分是，哦，好吧，现在我们会在谷歌内部有一个统一的，你知道的，从操作系统到硬件的完整体系。

And but the second part of the deal was, oh, well, now we're gonna have a unified, you know, stack within Google from, you know, operating system up through the hardware.

我们会做出这些了不起的手机。

We're gonna make these incredible phones.

结果没成。

Didn't happen.

进展不太顺利。

Didn't go so well.

没成。

Didn't happen.

所以他们最后把摩托罗拉的资产卖给了联想，卖了29亿美元，比125亿少多了。

So they end up selling the assets of Motorola to Lenovo, for $2,900,000,000, a lot less than 12.5.

不过，如果他们能避免好几笔数十亿美元的赔偿判决，那可能算是成功了。

But to the extent they save themselves from multiple billion dollar judgments against them, may have been successful.

另一个有趣的事情，在我们做分析时会变得非常相关，那就是2010年，中国成立了一家公司叫小米。

The other interesting thing that's gonna become very relevant as we do the analysis here, in 2010, a company in China is founded called Xiaomi Mhmm.

我想我们很多听众应该都听说过。

Which, I presume a lot of our listeners are familiar with.

但如果你没听说过，这家公司被大家称为“中国的苹果”。

But for those who aren't, this is you know, people refer to this as the quote unquote apple of China.

如果你看到过这个名字的写法，就是X-I-A-O-M-I。

And if you've seen that written, that's x I a o m I.

对。

Yep.

所以现在，在2016年9月这个时间点，我相信优步是全球估值最高的私营科技公司。

And and so at this point, sitting here in September 2016, Uber, I believe, is the most val highly valued private company technology company in the world.

小米，我相信是第二，估值大概在400到500亿美元之间，根据他们上一轮融资来看。

Xiaomi, I believe, is the second, valued at somewhere, I believe, between 40 and $50,000,000,000, in their last financing.

小米很有意思。

And Xiaomi is interesting.

他们跟三星和其他公司一样，被指责只是抄袭iPhone。

Like, they, much like Samsung and others, you know, have been accused of just copying the iPhone.

对。

Right.

但小米做的事情，三星是完全依赖谷歌的。

But what Xiaomi did has done, Samsung was completely reliant on Google.

你知道，他们只做硬件，然后有一些软件，所谓的皮肤，放在安卓系统上面。

You know, they just made the hardware, and then they had some software, you know, skins, quote unquote, that they would put on top of Android.

但运行的是谷歌的安卓系统。

But it's running Google Android.

小米，就像我们说的，完全分叉了安卓，有了自己的安卓分支，完全由他们控制。

Xiaomi, as we talked about, completely forked Android, have taken over have their own branch of Android that they fully control.

有一家叫Cyanogen的初创公司，也做了同样的事情，但只发布操作系统。

There's a startup called Cyanogen, that has also done the same thing that only distributes the operating system.

小米的Kindle Fire也是这么做的。

And Xiaomi Kindle Fire does the same thing.

亚马逊在Kindle Fire上也是这么做的。

Amazon does this with Kindle Fire.

小米基本上是利用开源的安卓系统来跟苹果竞争。

And Xiaomi basically leveraged open source Android to, compete with Apple.

所以他们做出漂亮又相对便宜的设备，在中国销售。

And so they make beautiful relatively low cost devices, sell them in China.

这些设备非常受欢迎。

They're wildly popular.

他们运行的安卓版本，小米已经完全掌控并锁定了。

And they run a version of Android that Xiaomi has completely locked down and controls.

现在是个好时机，来区分一下什么是安卓开源项目，什么是谷歌授权的安卓。

And this is a good time to, to draw the line between what is the Android open source project and what is Android as licensed from Google.

所以，你可以从谷歌免费获得安卓，它自带所有谷歌服务，比如谷歌地图、Gmail，

So, you can get, Android absolutely for free from Google, and it comes with all the services that that, Google does, Google Maps, Gmail,

现在谷歌的大部分服务。

Most of Google now.

包括应用商店和里面的所有应用。

Access to the Play Store and all the apps in there.

或者你可以自己去拿源代码，然后分叉它。

Or you can go get the source code yourself, and you can fork it.

你可以直接用安卓的源代码。

And you can, you can just use Android source code.

但最大的缺点是，你的平台上没有应用商店，也访问不了这些服务。

But the the major disadvantage there is you don't have access on your platform to the Play Store, and you don't have access to all these services.

所以你真的得自己去构建这些，或者找其他合作伙伴来提供邮件等服务。

So you really have to not only go and build that yourself, all those, you know, a mail Or plug in other partners.

对。

Right.

对。

Right.

但实际上你得建立一个全新的开发者生态系统。

But you actually have to build an entire new developer ecosystem.

比如，亚马逊得去到处说服每个开发者把应用提交到亚马逊应用商店。对。

Like, Amazon has to go around and convince everyone to submit to the Amazon App Store Yep.

还有谷歌应用商店。

And the Google Play Store.

这呢，确实需要每个开发者花点功夫。

And that, you know, requires a little bit of work from from each developer.

通常来说值得，但你会遇到这种新的冷启动问题。

Generally worth it, but you you kinda have this new cold start problem.

所以谷歌在这里的优势是，对于那些在乎能访问应用商店里所有应用和所有服务的制造商来说，他们就直接用原版安卓，然后谷歌就能确保你不会把任何搜索或服务换成别的。

And so what what Google sorta has an advantage here is for people who care about, for manufacturers that care about having access to all the apps in the Play Store and all the services, they're just gonna roll with stock Android, and then Google gets to make sure that you don't change any of the search or services away from them.

对。

Yep.

好的。

Alright.

抱歉，刚才那段有点长。

Sorry that was a long one.

关于安卓，确实有太多内容要聊了。

There is so much to cover here with Android.

对。

Yeah.

大卫，你觉得我们之前好像聊过安卓现在的定位是什么。

David, do you think that, so we've we've kinda talked about, like, what the point of Android is right now.

你觉得他们在收购它、刚开始涉足移动领域时，就是抱着这个策略去的吗？

Do you think that was the strategy when they acquired it and when they started getting into the mobile game?

比如，为什么在2005年的时候，移动业务对谷歌来说会那么重要呢？

Like, why was mobile gonna be important to Google in 2005?

我不太清楚，但我认为当时根本没人能预见到这个市场后来会发生什么。

I don't I don't know, but I I don't think there was any way anyone could have foretold what was gonna happen, you know, in this market.

我觉得这是谷歌的一笔好买卖，他们买下了一个非常有才华的团队，正在开发一些潜力巨大的酷技术。

I think this was a, great buy by Google of a really talented team working on some really cool technology that had a lot of potential.

但是，嗯。

But Mhmm.

我是说，谷歌可能知道iPhone的存在，因为埃里克·施密特在苹果公司史蒂夫·乔布斯的董事会里。

I mean, well, Google probably knew about the iPhone because Eric Schmidt was on Steve Jobs' board at Apple.

嗯。

Mhmm.

但我认为没有人能真正预料到事情会如何发展。

But I don't think anybody really could have figured out exactly how this was gonna play out.

但是，你知道，谷歌在Android上做得非常出色，引导它经历了市场极其复杂的波动，这些波动顺便彻底摧毁了黑莓。

But but major, you know, Google has done an amazing job with Android in terms of shepherding it through this wildly complex, you know, gyrations in the market that by the way completely killed BlackBerry.

所以，像一家价值数十亿美元、在智能手机领域领先的公司就这样被摧毁了，消失了。

So, like, a company that was many multibillion dollar company that was the leader in smartphones just decimated, gone.

对。

Yeah.

你知道吗？

You know?

而且微软在很多方面也是。

And and Microsoft in a lot of ways too.

你知道，显然微软现在正在复苏，没有被摧毁，但他们曾经是领先的移动操作系统提供商之一，现在这个地位已经没了。

You know, obviously, Microsoft is having a resurgence now and didn't wasn't destroyed, but they were the, like, one of the leading mobile operating system providers, and now that's gone.

谷歌在引导这方面确实做得很好。

Google really has done a great job shepherding this.

对。

Yeah.

说得好。

It's a great point.

好的。

Alright.

你想继续聊收购类别吗？

Do you wanna move on to, acquisition category?

当然。

Absolutely.

太好了。

Awesome.

我这边选技术。

I am going to go with technology here.

其他选项有人员、产品、业务线、资产，或者其他。

Other choices, people, product, business line, asset, or other.

我一开始想的不是产品，但这次收购发生得太早，他们买到的并不是一个完整的产品，也不是能直接推向市场的东西，而且它也没有自己独立完整的战略。

I don't think my initial inclination was product, but this was so early that what they were acquiring was not a complete product and not something they could go to market with, and something that didn't have its own independent fully fleshed out strategy.

对。

Yep.

他们真正买到的其实是某种核心技术，而且实际上没有其他人真的去尝试做这个东西。

And what they were really buying was kind of this core core technology that, has actually no one else really went out and tried to build that.

很明显，这是一项很难构建的技术，因为令人惊讶的是——

Like, it clearly is a difficult piece of technology to build because Surprising

不过话说回来，虽然它显然很难，但它本身是基于Linux的。

though too because it, like, clearly, it's difficult, but it it was it itself was based on Linux.

别人其实也可以拿Linux来做。

Somebody else could have also taken Linux.

而且你知道，安卓团队在被谷歌收购之前是个特别小的团队，都没融过资。

And, you know, the Android team was a super small team when hadn't raised any VC when Google bought it.

对。

Yeah.

而且现在也没动力再去搞别的东西了，因为如果你要做别的，那些服务上你都得面对冷启动的问题。

And now there's no incentive to go out and build anything else because, like, if if you were gonna build anything else, you'd have the cold start problem on all those services anyway.

在iOS和安卓上都已经有了。

Already on iOS and Android.

所以

So

没错。

Right.

有意思的是，谷歌拥有这项核心技术，还提供它授权的服务，而且，我猜是免费授权的，但这一切的核心，还是他们收购来的这项技术。

It it is interesting how, you know, Google has this core technology and access to services that it licenses out, and the the I guess, it's a free license, but at the very core of that is this technology that they acquired.

是的。

Yep.

我之前基本上已经回答过这个问题了，这里就不重复了，但我完全同意这是一次技术收购。

I basically gave my answer to this earlier, which which I won't repeat all of it, but I completely agree this was a technology acquisition when they bought it.

而且谷歌在推动这件事上做得非常出色。

And then Google has done just this incredible job of shepherding it through.

你知道吗，我其实记下来了，他们收购的时候，这既是一次技术收购，也带来了一些优秀的人才。

You know, I actually wrote down that it was a technology acquisition with a little bit of some great talent when they bought it.

但随着时间的推移，这已经从一项技术发展成一个产品，再到一个业务线，现在成了谷歌的一项资产。

But over time, this has gone from a technology to a product to a business line and now an asset at Google.

这确实是在整个公司的管理下实现的。

And that's really been under the under the stewardship of the whole company.

而且令人惊叹的是，这是一个防御性的资产。

And it's amazing how it's an it's a asset of defensibility.

我的意思是，他们从安卓那里得到的核心东西，在我看来，就是确保他们不会失去那些搜索用户的访问权。

I mean, really, the the core thing they get from from Android, my opinion, is making sure they don't lose access to all of those people searching.

而且，尽管谷歌在搞这么多有趣的登月计划，自动驾驶汽车确实可能成为他们一个非常不一样的业务，而且规模很大、利润很高，甚至能和搜索业务一较高下。

And for as many of these interesting moonshots as Google is working on, and and self driving cars truly could be, a a very different business for them and a very, big and profitable one that actually rivals search.

比如，谷歌靠搜索时展示广告赚钱，有时候也在其他网站上展示广告。

Like, Google makes money from having a marketplace of ads when you search and, you know, sometimes on other websites.

我觉得说到底，他们买的是防御性。

And I think that when you boil it down, they they bought defensibility.

更重要的是，这笔收购很便宜。

And and more importantly, like, it was a cheap buy.

他们做的事情就是花了十年时间，打造了公司的一个完整部门，来提供这种防御性。

What they did was invest ten years into building a entire, you know, arm of their business to provide defensibility.

完全同意。

Totally agree.

我们是不是该聊聊，如果当初没买会怎么样？

Should we move on to what would have happened otherwise?

对。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

所以我之前就在想这个问题，我的核心问题，我觉得其实有两个。

So I was thinking about this one earlier, and my core question is, I guess it's two.

如果谷歌没有收购安卓，他们还能不能靠自己发展到今天这个位置？

Could and would Google have built themselves into the position that they're in today if they had not made the Android acquisition?

有意思。

Interesting.

我们通常是从初创公司的角度来想，如果没被收购会怎么样。

We usually think about what would have happened otherwise from the start ups perspective.

那家公司会落到什么地步？

Where is that company gonna land?

但在这里，我觉得这个问题其实很好回答，因为在这个市场发展过程中，竞争格局太大了，根本不可能。

Which here I think is an inter is a easy question to answer because there's no way the playing field was so massive here as this market evolved.

一家独立的小公司根本不可能产生这么大的影响力。

There's no way a small independent company could have had the scale of impact.

所以我觉得安卓，它可能要么被其他人收购，要么就自己失败了。

So I don't think Android, it probably would have been bought by somebody else or failed, on its own.

但是，但是，对谷歌来说，他们不买安卓能做到吗？

But, but, yeah, for Google, could they have done this without buying Android?

比如说，假设他们当时有远见，知道世界会变成今天这样。

Like, did they in in, let's say, hypothetically, they had the foresight to know that the world would be the way it is today.

而且，他们也知道苹果在搞什么。

And Which, again, they knew what Apple was up to.

对。

Yep.

他们也知道自己需要一个有竞争力的移动操作系统，甚至可能是实际的手机，来确保他们拥有那个客户关系，把人们引向搜索。

And and they they knew they would need, a competitive mobile operating system or maybe even actual phones to make sure that they own that customer relationship to funnel people to search.

那你就面临一个自建还是收购的决策。

Then you have a build or buy decision.

而且5000万美元，你知道，假设他们要组建一个团队，基本上自己内部开发安卓。

And 50,000,000 is a is like, you know, let's say they were gonna staff a team to go and build basically Android in house.