比特币

那么我们需要什么样的基础设施来实现这一点？这实际上与散户基础设施大不相同。故事在这里又出现了惊人的转折。

Well, what what kind of infrastructure do we need to make that happen? And that looks actually pretty different than just retail infrastructure. So here is where the story takes another just incredible turn.

我不知道你接下来要说什么。

I don't know where you're going with this.

记得我说过社交网络会卷土重来吧

Remember I said the social network would come back

噢，确实记得。

Oh yes I do.

现在该说到温克莱沃斯兄弟了。研究这段历史特别有趣，我查阅了资料还看了几部他们的视频。通过这次调研，我的看法彻底改变了。众所周知，温克莱沃斯兄弟的故事是Facebook起源的一部分，这对双胞胎比马克·扎克伯格早几年进入哈佛，他们提出了后来成为Facebook的创意，并雇佣马克作为开发人员来协助实现。

Into play here. The Winklevoss twins. It's been so fun to like read about this and I've gone and watched a few videos with them. My opinion has completely changed from doing this research. So of course, people probably know the story of the Winklevoss' as part of the origin of Facebook and the social network and that their two twins who were a few years ahead of Mark Zuckerberg at Harvard, and they had had the idea for what became Facebook and hired Mark to be a developer for them to help build it.

据称，马克当时说：'嘿，这真是个绝妙的主意，我要自己单干。'随后引发了重大诉讼，他们在2004年2月起诉了马克。

And then allegedly, Mark had said, hey. This is actually a really good idea. I'm just gonna go do it myself. There was a big lawsuit about this. They sued Mark in 02/2004.

最终在2008年以马克支付6500万美元和解金告终。

It was eventually settled in 2008 for $65,000,000 settlement payment from Mark.

这笔钱买比特币都能付个不错的首付了。

That's a nice down payment on some Bitcoin.

接下来才是故事最精彩的部分。当时所有人都觉得不可思议，就像《社交网络》里的台词说的：'如果你能发明Facebook，那你早就发明了'，创意本身不值钱。

Well, here's where the story gets really interesting. So at the time, everybody thought this is crazy. Like, you know, it's the line from The Social Network. If you'd invented Facebook, you would have invented Facebook. Ideas are cheap.

执行力决定一切。这些人疯了，他们根本不知道自己在说什么。也许确实如此，但这些家伙也确实非常聪明。

Execution is everything. These guys are crazy. They don't know what they're talking about. Maybe that's true. But these guys are also really smart.

所以当和解达成时，2000万美元的和解金用于支付律师费。哇哦。于是他们税前拿到了4500万美元。所有人都觉得这太棒了，说你们这辈子都不用愁了等等。

So when the settlement happened, $20,000,000 of the settlement went to legal fees. Woah. So they got $45,000,000 before taxes. And everybody's like, this is great. You're gonna be set up for life, etcetera.

他们是赛艇运动员，实际上参加了2012年奥运会。有人建议他们直接去当运动员。他们说：不，我们不要现金。

They were rowers. They actually participated in the twenty twelve Olympics. You guys can just go be athletes. They said, no. We don't want the money in cash.

我们要拿Facebook的股票。哦，当时没意识到...于是他们在2008年把所有4500万美元都换成了Facebook股票。这事有个经典语录：卡梅伦在《纽约时报》文章里说，律师觉得我们拿股票疯了，我们觉得他们拿2000万现金才疯了。

We're gonna take the money in Facebook stock. Oh, didn't realize So they took all $45,000,000 in 2008 Facebook There's this great quote on this. Cameron says in a in a New York Times article. The lawyers thought we were crazy for taking the money in Facebook stock. We thought they were crazy for taking their 20,000,000 in cash.

等到2012年Facebook上市时，他们持有的股票价值约3亿美元。在此期间的前四年，他们搬到了英国，因为2012年奥运会在伦敦举办。2012年他们回来时，Facebook已上市，他们身价3亿美元。

The stock that they get by the time Facebook goes public in 2012 is worth around $300,000,000. And in the interim, in the previous four years, they moved to The UK because the two thousand twelve Olympics were in London. So they come back in 2012. Facebook's gone public. They're worth $300,000,000.

故事是这样的：奥运会后他们在西班牙度假时，遇到一个美国人向他们介绍比特币——那时还非常早期，Coinbase当时刚进入YC孵化器。卡梅伦和泰勒开始研究后意识到：天啊，这是具有网络效应的货币。于是他们全力投入比特币。

And the story is that they're on vacation in Spain after the Olympics, and they meet a guy there from The US who starts telling them about Bitcoin, still really early. Coinbase was just going through YC at this point in time. And Cameron and Tyler, as they start to learn about it and think about it, they realize, like, holy crap. This is money with network effects. So they go all in on Bitcoin.

他们没有把3亿美元全投进去——那在当时几乎是比特币的全部市值。但从2012年夏天开始，他们以每个10美元的价格买入比特币，最终积累了超过10万枚比特币，花费不到1000万美元，占当时比特币流通总量的1%。哇。

They don't put the whole 300,000,000 in. That would have been like the whole market cap of Bitcoin itself at the time. But they start buying Bitcoin in summer twenty twelve at about $10 a Bitcoin. They end up accumulating well over a 100,000 Bitcoins that cost them under $10,000,000, and it was 1% of all Bitcoin outstanding at the time. Wow.

简直难以置信。他们设想，为何不专门为机构建立一个交易所，就像Coinbase服务零售客户那样？于是他们创立并资助了名为Gemini的交易所，至今仍在运营，其核心目标就是获得监管机构认证以服务金融机构。最终他们获得了纽约州监管机构颁发的牌照，成为当时唯一一家能为受监管的资产管理公司和银行提供托管服务的交易所。几年后的2017年，当芝加哥期权交易所（CBOE）推出比特币期货时——这是比特币在2017年大幅上涨的重要里程碑——实际上正是Gemini负责结算交易所的所有期货合约。

Totally incredible. They say, what if we build an exchange specifically for institutions like Coinbase have retail? So they start and fund an exchange called Gemini, which still exists today with the whole target of being certified by regulators for institutions. They end up getting a license from New York State regulators that allows them to be a custodian for regulated asset managers and banks that no other exchange at the time had. And then a few years later in 2017 when the Chicago Board of Exchange launched Bitcoin futures on the CBOE, which was a huge moment, a big part of the run up of Bitcoin in 2017, it was actually Gemini that was settling all the futures on the exchange.

太疯狂了，超级有趣。我是说，谢天谢地，像Coinbase、Gemini这样的平台，还有其他一些人也意识到：如果我们能建立真正合规的、与监管机构合作的、值得信赖且合法的机构，比特币的未来将一片光明。否则所有努力都会随着门头沟（Mt. Gox）事件付之一炬。

Crazy. So super interesting. I mean, thank God that like Coinbase, Gemini, there were others out there as well who saw like, hey, The future is bright for Bitcoin if we can start to build some real institutions with that work with regulators that people can trust and are gonna be legal. Otherwise, everything's gonna go down in flames with Mt. Gox.

在整个过程中，比特币作为一种资产持续增长，当然伴随着惊人的波动性，这种波动至今仍在延续。

So through all this, Bitcoin as a asset keeps growing with an insane amount of volatility, of course, which still continues to this day.

泡沫一个接一个，然后你

Bubble after bubble after bubble and, you

知道的，砰、砰、砰。没错。但每个泡沫过后，价格都会攀升到更高水平，新的底部价格也随之抬高。2012年2月，比特币价格从5.27美元起步，到年底已涨至13.30美元。

know, pop, pop, pop. Yep. But with each bubble, it keeps going higher and then the new floor price resets higher. 02/2012, the price started at $5.27 per Bitcoin. By the end of the year, it's at $13.30.

接着到了2013年2月，这是比特币爆发式增长的一年。尽管门头沟事件和丝绸之路网站等负面事件接连发生，年初价格刚超过13美元——如我们所说——到2014年1月1日时，比特币汇率已达770美元/枚。短短一年内就实现了惊人的增值。

And then 02/2013, this was the huge breakout year. So even despite Mt. Gox and Silk Road and everything going down the tubes, started the year at just over $13, as we said. By the 2013, 01/01/2014, Bitcoin is at $770 per Bitcoin exchange rate. That is some serious appreciation in just one year.

是的。我记得之后价格又跌到了200美元左右。那是

Yep. And then I think even after that, then fell down to, like, 200 or something. That was the

接下来四年。当门头沟交易所最终倒闭，那75万枚比特币消失时，对系统造成了巨大冲击。价格跌至约300美元，2015年基本维持在300到500美元区间。但到了2016年，所有基础设施开始陆续上线。

next four. Then when Mt. Gox finally disappeared and those three quarters of a million plus Bitcoins disappeared, that was a huge hit to the system. Price fell down to about $300 and then 2015 mostly stayed in that sort of $3.04 or $500 range. By 2016 though, all this infrastructure is starting to come online.

Coinbase筹集了大量资金，账户注册量激增。他们见证了极高的交易量，双子星等其他交易所也是如此。2016年比特币价格达到998美元，距离千元大关仅一步之遥。想想2017年时——也就是六年前——一万枚比特币连个披萨都买不到？

Coinbase has raised a lot of money, lots of accounts being created. They're seeing very high trading and exchange volumes, same with Gemini, same with other exchanges. By the 2016, the price hits $998 per Bitcoin. So just a hair under a thousand dollars a Bitcoin. I mean, this is now the 2017, what was this, six years earlier, you could barely buy a pizza for 10,000 Bitcoin?

确实。想想就觉得不可思议。我一直在提这个300万倍的涨幅，我们讨论过的数字。最初3.5万倍涨幅发生在头五年，2015年达到350美元。而此后五年实际上只有85倍。复利计算就是这么奇妙——如果你能在极低成本（比如1美分甚至更低）时入场，大部分倍数增长都发生在早期，远未达到千元价位之前。

Yeah. It's it's totally fascinating to think about, you know, I I I keep referencing this 3,000,000 x, the number that we've talked about. The initial 30 five thousand x was in the first five years, making it to $350 in 2015. And in the five years since, it's actually only, only, only been an 85x. So it's like compounding math is funny that way, where if you can buy in at that incredibly low cost basis where they started at 1¢ or sub 1¢, a lot of that sort of multiple happens in those early years, well before it even hits a thousand dollars a Bitcoin.

最妙的是，这完全符合风险资本市场的运作规律。早期投资能带来巨额回报倍数，但早期可投入的资金量有限。就像红杉资本等大机构发现的：早期投入获得高倍数回报，随着公司成长、市场验证和TAM扩大，后续轮次继续加码——你不仅要追求初始资金的300万倍回报。

Well, what's so cool is that like, this is exactly how the venture capital markets work, right? Like, it's the early stage investments that you can generate those huge, huge multiple returns, but you can't put that many dollars to work in the early stage investments. So like, you'll generate, you know, Sequoia has figured this out and, you know, so many other of the big firms. You put dollars to work early, you get huge multiples on those dollars, but then you keep putting dollars to work in subsequent rounds as companies grow, get proven more, and the TAM expands and the market for you be to be able to put those dollars to work expands. And so, like, it's not just that you wanna get the 3,000,000 on your first dollars.

还希望在后期更大资金基数上获得85倍收益。

You also wanna get the 85 on a lot bigger base that you're putting in later.

没错。特别有意思的是——待会儿分析时会看到这有多疯狂——把这些公司资产与货币资产对比很奇特，因为这类投资本就不是苹果对苹果的比较。

Yeah. It's interesting. I mean, it's also it's it's just especially interesting. It's it's a little bit of like, as we'll get into the analysis later, I think we'll we'll see how crazy this is, but it's strange comparing all these companies, all these corporate assets to a monetary asset. Because it's not apples to apples in the way that we normally think about these types of investments.

比特币本质是货币，最终将成为价值存储和转移的工具。有趣的是，我们至今讨论的全是如何提升比特币网络中每个最小单位——一枚比特币的价值。

Like this is a currency. The idea is that it's eventually going to be just a way that we store and transfer value. It's just funny that like everything we've talked about so far is about growing the value of each fraction of the Bitcoin network, a Bitcoin.

是的。但此刻正是转折点。2017年的比特币狂热。天啊。2017年1月1日，比特币价格是998美元一枚。

Yep. But this is the moment where, things kind of tip. Bitcoin mania In 2017. Holy crap. 01/01/2017, we're at $998 a share.

人们觉得，一千美元的比特币？这可是真金白银。这会吸引什么？招来了骗子。之前六七年里，已经有人推出了其他加密货币项目。

People are like, a thousand dollars of Bitcoin? There's some real money here. And what does that attract? That attracts grifters. So people had already launched other crypto projects over the previous, you know, six, seven years.

以太坊在2015年推出。当然还有其他项目，我们提到过的各种山寨币和恶搞币。

Ethereum launched in 2015. There were others that were, of course, we referenced all the altcoins and parody coins.

关于以太坊、DeFi以及区块链或加密货币在本集范围之外的现代应用，有太多可说的，显然这些都很有意思。

So much to say about Ethereum here, about DeFi, about a lot of the more modern takes using the the blockchain or using cryptocurrency outside the scope of this episode, but, obviously those things are interesting.

没错，我们以后肯定会讨论这些。但在2017年，人们意识到这简直是印钞机。五月时，可能有人知道或用过Brave浏览器——这是个真实的公司项目，默认保护隐私、不追踪用户的浏览器。他们没走常规风投路线，而是搞了个叫'首次代币发行'的东西，以太坊也这么干过。凡是基于区块链的新项目启动时，都需要像中本聪挖出前50个比特币来启动网络那样的操作。

Yep, we will definitely talk about those in the future. But in 2017 people realized like, man, this is a money machine. So in May, folks may know, folks may use, it's a real company, real project, the Brave web browser, which is a privacy by default, you know, non tracking web browser. They launch instead of raising venture capital in a normal route, they do this thing that they call an initial coin offering, which is the same thing that Ethereum did. You know, anytime you're starting a new blockchain based project, you have a launch just like Satoshi mined the first 50 Bitcoins to bootstrap up the Bitcoin network.

Brave出售初始代币，做营销，发布白皮书等等，人们疯狂抢购。他们的ICO在30秒内筹集了3500万美元。

Well, Brave sells the initial tokens and they market it and they have white paper and all this stuff and people go nuts. They raised $35,000,000 from this ICO in thirty seconds.

完全非稀释性资本。

In fully non dilutive capital.

完全非稀释性资本。人们开始讨论，这是筹集资金的新方式，这是创办公司的新途径。风投们自己都疯狂了，他们说，哇，从现在起我们只投资ICO。

Fully non dilutive capital. People start talking about like, this is the new way to raise money. This is the new way to start companies. VCs themselves go gaga. They're like, oh, wow, we're just gonna invest in ICOs from now on.

这就像众筹，你从用户那里筹钱，所以所有激励机制都一致，因为随着产品价值增长，它也会增长，等等等等。

It's like crowdfunding, you're raising money from users so all the incentives are aligned because as it increases, it's gonna increase with the value of the product, blah blah blah.

这完全不受监管。所以2017年每个人都跟风搞ICO，真的是每个人。就像2017年的SPAC热潮。DJ Khaled搞了ICO，帕丽斯·希尔顿也搞了ICO。

It's totally unregulated. So everybody and their mother, literally everybody and their mother has ICO in 2017. It's like the SPAC of 2017. DJ Khaled has an ICO. Paris Hilton has an ICO.

弗洛伊德·梅威瑟也搞了ICO。问题是，这些项目到底是做什么的都不清楚

Floyd Mayweather has an ICO. Like, unclear what any of these projects

我可以说原因，因为创建自己代币的逻辑是——我想他们做的是dApp对吧？分布式应用，或rDApp。我在创建一个分布式应用，它会形成网络效应，会有很多人使用。所以平台上使用的伪虚拟货币价值会随着用户增多而上涨。抽象来看，这很合理。

I could say what because the rationale for creating your own coin is that I'm creating I think they were dApps, right? Distributed applications, or rDApps. But I'm creating a distributed application and it's gonna have a network effect and there's gonna be a bunch of people that use it. So like literally the value of the pseudo virtual currency that you use on the platform will increase in value with more people using the platform. Like in the abstract, makes sense.

就像比特币在抽象层面也很合理一样，区别主要在于实际发生的情况。对，完全正确。那么是谁在炒作这些东西？比特币年初

In the same way that in the abstract Bitcoin made sense, the difference is largely just in what actually then happened. Yeah. Totally. So and who was pumping up these things? So, you know, Bitcoin starts

才1000美元。有很多人仅仅通过持有（或者叫hodl）就赚了大钱，我们应该hodl...

the year at a thousand dollars. There are a lot of people out there who made a lot of money just holding or hodling, which we should hoddle h

o d 是拼写错误吗

o d it a misspelling

是hold还是别的什么

of hold or is it

坚持住别放弃？

hold on for dear life?

人们两种说法都有，但我记得最初是论坛上有个人在比特币价格泡沫破裂时鼓励大家坚持持有不要抛售。结果打字太快打成了hodl。

People have said both, but I think the original it was a guy on a forum who during one of the bubble crashes for Bitcoin price was encouraging everybody to hold and not sell. And so just type too fast and said hodl.

这就成了网络梗，就像'轰地一声炸药爆炸'之类的。

It just becomes an internet meme like boom goes the dynamite or any other.

哇，好久没听过这个梗了。所以有很多人看起来一夜之间就在比特币上赚了大钱。他们觉得这些ICO项目很酷，就把钱都投进去了。

Oh, I haven't heard that in so long. So good. So like there are a lot of people that have just made all this money seemingly overnight to themselves in Bitcoin. They're like, okay cool these ICOs, great we'll pump the money into the ICOs. Yeah.

到5月份Brave项目ICO时，比特币价格已翻倍至2000美元（按当时汇率）。9月涨到4000美元，10月6000美元，11月1万美元，到2017年12月18日达到当时众人认为的历史最高点19783.06美元/枚。太疯狂了，2万美元一枚比特币。

So by May when the brave ICO happens, price of Bitcoin has doubled to $2,000 by the prevailing exchange rates USD. By September, it's $4,000. By the next month in October it's $6,000 by November it's $10,000 and by 12/18/2017 we hit what many then later over the coming two years would believe would be the all time high $19,783.06 per Bitcoin. Unreal. $20,000 per Bitcoin.

是的，所以这就像

Yeah. And so this is like

我要声明，当时我完全站在那个阵营——那时已经套现退出了。我当时想，我受够这种狂热了。全是ICO项目，全是骗子和山寨币。谁知道接下来会怎样？

I for for the record, I I was very much in the camp at that point being at that point, was cashed out. I was like, I'm I'm done with this mania. There's all ICOs. There's all these scammers, altcoins. Who knows what's going on?

骗子太多了。

So many scammers.

我当时非常确信这完全是泡沫膨胀，价格已经到顶了。我清楚地记得自己这么想过。

And I definitely was like, this is totally inflated and the highest it will ever go. I definitively remember thinking that.

我是说，我记得当时在比特币上涨过程中套现了一小部分——虽然我过去和现在都没多少比特币，只是早期实验性买过几个。所以在上涨时我取出了部分资金，但2018年崩盘后，我就想，无所谓了，反正不缺这笔钱。就当是个期权，看看会发生什么。

I mean, was, I remember I don't think I had taken a little money off the table during the run up from not that I had or have many Bitcoins, but from my experimentations buying a few in the early days. So I'd taken some money off the table in the run up, but then after the crash, which happens in the 2018, I was like, I don't know. I don't need the money, whatever. It's an option. Let's see what happens.

我就放着不管

I'll just let it

哦，你就让它继续持有啊。

Oh, you let it ride.

我放任自流。我蜷缩着。我蜷缩着。

I let it ride. I huddled. I huddled.

好的。给我们讲讲近况。2018年1月，我们看到价格飙升至接近2万。然后下跌。显然，现在又涨回来了。

All right. So catch us up. This January 2018, we see this run up to near 20. It falls. Clearly, it has risen again.

过去几年发生了什么？

What's happened in the last couple of years?

好的。2018年期间，价格从2万美元一路跌至4千美元以下。到2019年1月，比特币交易价略高于3700美元，全年下跌72%，较2017年12月高点下跌81%。但在这一切背后，我认为随着炒作退潮、骗局消失——谢天谢地那些ICO终于成为过去式。

Okay. So over the course of 2018, it falls from 20 k all the way down to under 4 k. So at the 2018, by January 2019, Bitcoin is trading at just over $3,700, down 72% for all of 2018 and down 81% from the high in December 2017. But underneath all of that, and I think this is what as the hype as the tide went out and the hype cycle disappeared and all of these scammers, thank god, disappeared and ICOs became, thank god, a thing of the past.

其中很多人因欺诈被起诉。

And many of them prosecuted for fraud.

是的。很多人。监管机构当然介入了。风投公司也恢复理智，开始投资正常企业，包括那些正经开展加密货币和区块链业务的公司。

Yeah. Many of them. The regulators got involved, of course. And VC firms regained their sanity and started investing in normal companies as well as normal companies doing things with crypto and on and Bitcoin and blockchain.

有些甚至直接投资加密货币本身，但通常比ICO要主流得多。

And some in act actually into cryptocurrencies themselves, but often a little bit more mainstream than into the ICOs.

DJ Khaled币。对，就是山寨币。这一切的背景是，Gemini、Coinbase等公司在2018、2019年打下的基础。2018年，Square在其现金应用中新增了托管加密货币的原生买卖交易功能。Robinhood也在2018年推出类似功能，到2019年已覆盖全部用户。

DJ Khaled coins. Yeah, Altcoins. So in the background, all of this, the groundwork that Gemini and Coinbase and others started laying that kept getting built over 2018, 2019. So in 2018, Square added the ability to buy, sell, trade, and hold as a custodian crypto natively within the Square Cash App. Robinhood did the same within Robinhood in 2018 and then rolled that out, I think by 2019 to their entire user base.

时间来到2019年，比特币——虽然它曾为许多ICO项目提供资金支持（主要来自比特币持有者的获利），但两者其实毫无关联——价格回升至每枚1.3万美元左右，并保持这一趋势。直到2020年3月，世界天翻地覆。

And so you get to the 2019 and Bitcoin, which again had financed a lot of this ICO boom, but, from profits that people had made in Bitcoin but Mhmm. Was totally unrelated. The prices recovered to about $13,000 per Bitcoin by summer twenty nineteen and things continue roughly in that trajectory. And then we get to March 2020 and, the world changes.

过去五年多来，总有人高喊'这是种非关联性资产'——天啊，要是能持有非主权货币该多好！当黑天鹅事件发生、世界分崩离析时，谁都不想与特定政府挂钩，只想拥有无法被操控的货币...现在终于有机会证明他们是对的了。

All the people who have been screaming for the last five plus years that this is an uncorrelated asset and boy, oh boy, would it be nice to own some currency that's not fiat, that's not connected to a single government if we head into a, you know, if we have a black swan event that happens and the world is falling apart, you don't want to be associated with any specific government and you want to have currency that is uncontrollable, blah, blah. Like, boy, is there an opportunity to prove you are right.

没错。但疯狂的是：2020年3月新冠疫情席卷全球，市场恐慌性抛售时，比特币同样暴跌。记得3月13日比特币报价还是131.4万美元，结果...

Yes. Now, here's what's crazy. So obviously COVID hits the broader world in March 2020. And when there's that initial dip in the markets and panic selling and everybody thinks the crash is happening and the equity markets sell off, actually crypto and Bitcoin sells off too. So the price of Bitcoin crashes And on 03/13/2020, remember, it had been trading around $1,314,000 dollars per Bitcoin.

直接跌破4000美元，太荒谬了！这完全违背了你的预期——人们总说'世界末日时该持有比特币'。

It crashes down below 4,000, which is crazy. So it's the exact opposite of Ben what you were saying, what you would think like, hey, I wanna own Bitcoin when the world's falling apart.

老兄，我当时盯着标普500和比特币价格走势图对比，简直就像在看关联资产。

Dude, I remember watching that and, like, looking at, the S and P 500 overlaid with the price of Bitcoin. And I was like, it's a pretty correlated asset class.

现在回想起来，当时发生了流动性挤兑。比特币持有者往往同时持有其他资产，当所有市场崩盘时，他们需要变现来履行义务。这解释了当时的抛售潮。但和股市一样，比特币很快反弹并飙升。就像你说的，美联储为应对疫情疯狂印钞——这在美国史无前例，2020年流通的美元有22%都是当年新印的。

And of course now we know with hindsight what was actually going on was there was a liquidity run and people who were holding Bitcoin were also holding other things. They had obligations and then as all the markets crashed they needed liquidity to be able to pay off other things and so I think that's what triggered a lot of selling at that moment. But since just like the equity markets it recovers quickly and just starts taking off. And then, Ben, like you're saying, so the Fed and the US government in response to COVID just starts printing money like crazily because it's never been done in our country ever before, like World War two, any other time. So during 2020, literally 22% of all of the US dollars in circulation all around the world are created in 2020.

我记得美国的债务与GDP比率从大约70%上升至2020年间的135%。这当然是为了资助所有刺激计划和政府在没有相应收入支持下的开支。

The debt to GDP ratio of The US goes from I think it was I don't remember exactly, somewhere like 70% to a 135% over the course of 2020. And this is, of course, financing all the stimulus packages and all the spending that the government is doing without the revenue to back it up.

与此同时，我们正处于零利率环境中。是的。为了实现经济刺激，主要有两件事在发生：一是政府用税收资金向经济注资，比如支付款项和实施...

And, of course, we're meanwhile, we're in a zero interest rate environment. Yeah. So there's sort of two things that are happening in order to do the economic stimulus. One, the government is using tax dollars to pump money back into the economy, you know, paying people and implementing

项目...他们在创造美元，虽然...但他们在...

programs They're be creating dollars Well, to do but they're

双管齐下。既有税收资金的分配，又有美联储印钞。他们正大幅增加流通货币量。我花了很多时间思考如何最好地理解这个问题——因为我觉得如果我懂了，听众们大概也能理解。我的理解是（虽然可能不完全准确）：就像私人公司股东增资时通常会承受15-30%的股权稀释，因为要为新股东发行新股。

doing both. It's tax dollar allocations and the Fed is printing more money. And so they're putting more dramatically more money into circulation, which, one way to think about this for I spent a bunch of time trying to figure out, like, what's the best way for me to understand this? Because I always feel like if I can understand it, then it's a pretty good proxy for everyone listening. And my sort of notion of it, and I'm sure this is not exactly right, is if you're a shareholder in a private company and you go raise more money, well you take a bunch of dilution usually 15 to 30% dilution because you're creating new shares for the shareholders.

这实际上等于在说：'所有持有美元的人，你们2020年将承受20%的稀释。你们的美元购买力会下降，因为现在流通中的美元变多了——只是为了让更多人能分到钱。当然...'

We were effectively saying, hey, everyone with dollars, you're gonna go take 20% dilution in 2020. Your your dollar is gonna buy you you're just gonna have less purchasing power because there's more dollars in circulation right now just so that so that there's more dollars to go around. Of course It is

这种效应需要时间在整个体系中渗透，你最终会看到价格上涨20%，但终究会显现出来。

takes a while for that to percolate through the system that you actually see 20% higher prices, but eventually that will come home to roost.

是的。所以我觉得大卫和我都不够格当宏观经济学家来解读：我们处于零利率环境，政府向货币供应注入大量资金，取消了银行必须保留10%资本准备金的要求，他们在大量放贷...有很多复杂因素，但我觉得你我都不该在这儿讨论这个。

Yeah. So I don't think either David or I are, smart enough macro economist type people to be able to interpret we're in a zero interest rate environment, the government printed a bunch of money into the money supply, we did away with the requirement that banks hold 10% of of capital in reserve, they're loaning out. Yeah like there's a lot of side but I don't think you or I should be here.

不，但我认为我们或许不够聪明，但足以感受到——这确实影响了许多投资者和世界各地人们的行动，可能也包括你——那就是利率降至零的影响。所以我存在银行账户里的钱，任何人存在银行账户里赚取利息的钱，利息已经很低了，自2008年2月以来一直如此。现在直接归零。我每两周就会收到银行的邮件说：我们又下调了你的利率。就是这样。

No but I think what we are maybe not smart enough but what we're enough to feel that we feel certainly influenced my actions of many investors and people all around the world probably yours too is the effects of this which is interest rates go to zero. So all the money that I was holding in my bank account that anyone was holding in their bank account earning interest on it was already really low and had been since 02/2008. Now it's zero. I was getting emails every two weeks from my bank being like, we've your interest rate again. Exactly.

那么这创造了什么激励？它激励人们不要持有现金，如果你愿意的话，也不要持有债券。任何传统上相对保守的投资，无论是个人还是机构，你原本期望能获得3%、4%或5%回报的，现在都得不到，你得到的是零，而通胀还在发生，所以你实际得到的是负收益。这就像挤压气球的一端，只会迫使人们去投资能获得回报的地方。那会是哪里呢？

And so what incentive does that create? That creates an incentive to just not hold cash if you want and not hold bonds either. Like anything that's traditionally relatively conservative investments that as an individual or an institution you would hold and expect to get three, four or 5% return on you're not getting it, you're getting zero and inflation's happening so you're getting less than zero. Well so what does It's that like a balloon, you're squeezing one end, you're just gonna push people to go invest in places where they can get return. And where's that gonna be?

那将是股票和比特币。

That's gonna be equities and Bitcoin.

具体来说是科技股，尤其是早期阶段的科技股，人们希望它们有一天能像亚马逊那样。这就是股票市场正在发生的情况，当然还有比特币这样的另类资产。所以你看到的是资本在拼命寻求回报的结合。因此，有比以往更多的资本开始关注并认真对待加密货币这类事物。同时人们也越来越相信这个故事——等等，再给我讲讲比特币系统运作的基本原理。

And specifically tech equities and specifically, specifically early stage tech equities that people hope are gonna look one day like Amazon. So that's like what's happening in the equity markets and of course alternative assets like Bitcoin. And so you sort of have the coupling of people, you know, capital desperately seeking returns. So it's there's more capital ever that's looking into and taking things like cryptocurrencies seriously. And also people really buying the story of, wait, tell me about the fundamentals of how the Bitcoin system works again.

这实际上看起来越来越合理，而且所有这些其他人都在参与。好吧。哦，而且很多正经人已经投入了大量资金。好吧。因此，这一资产类别正变得越来越合法化，基础设施也在不断建立。

That actually does seem more and more reasonable and all these other people are are into it. Okay. Oh, and and a lot of legit people have have parked a lot of cap. Okay. And so there's more and more legitimization of the asset class happening, more infrastructure being built up.

在我们所处的环境中——有人可能会说已经开始显示出量化宽松、零利率环境以及没有硬性要求的部分准备金银行制度的问题——你实际上开始看到比特币系统的设计初衷就是要解决所有这些问题。比如，嘿，我们不能增加货币供应量，它将固定在2100万。而且，嘿，这里没有美联储，没有一个你需要信任的中央机构来有效管理它。很多这些理念在更多资本寻求更高回报的同时变得更具吸引力。

And in the environment that we're in, which one could argue is starting to show the cracks of what happens in quantitative easing, what happens in zero interest rate environments, what happens in, you know, not having hard requirements about fractional reserve banking. Like you actually start to see the way that the Bitcoin system was designed to fix all of that. Like, hey, we can't increase the money supply, is what it's gonna be at 21,000,000. And you know, hey, there there is no Fed, like there is no centralized, you know, place that you have to have trust in that they're gonna effectively manage it. A lot of these ideas just become more appealing at the same time as there's more capital seeking more returns.

所以这就像一场完美风暴，这些条件促使人们涌入加密货币市场。

So it's this like perfect storm of, the conditions created people rushing into cryptocurrencies.

具体来说，比特币。确切地讲是比特币，但这次特别针对机构投资者。与过去所有泡沫时期不同，那时主要是个人投资者、散户，或许还有些风投公司，比如Winklevoss兄弟在购买比特币。但现在，通过灰度等交易所交易基金、比特币期货，以及Gemini和Coinbase Pro等托管机构，已经建立了足够的基础设施，使得对冲基金、银行、捐赠基金或企业财务部门都能实际接触比特币。2020年5月，著名投资人保罗·都铎·琼斯（管理着约2.223万亿美元对冲基金）在CNBC上公开表示，他基金资产的12%已配置为比特币。

And And specifically Bitcoin. Well, specifically Bitcoin, but also specifically institutions this time. So like all the bubbles in the past, it was individuals, it was retail, maybe it was some venture firms, maybe it was the Winklevai who were buying Bitcoin. But now enough infrastructure has been laid through exchange traded funds which now exists like Grayscale, through Bitcoin futures, through custodians like Gemini and Coinbase Pro that if you're a hedge fund or if you're a bank or if you're an endowment or if you're a company treasury, you actually maybe can access Bitcoin. So in May 2020 Paul Tudor Jones, the famous investor who runs I think a $2,223,000,000,000 dollar hedge fund, He goes on CNBC and he says, hey, I actually have, between 12% of my fund's assets in Bitcoin.

对于一个220亿美元的基金来说，这意味着2亿至4亿美元的比特币投资——而且这些是机构资金，并非他个人资产。随后2020年8月，上市公司MicroStrategy披露持有2.5亿美元比特币，更关键的是他们将比特币列为资产负债表上的国库储备资产。

And at a $22,000,000,000 fund, that's 2 to $400,000,000 worth of Bitcoin that had just Investor come money too. Yeah. Not his money, it's fund money that has just come into Bitcoin. Then in August 2020, MicroStrategy which is a publicly traded investment firm, they reveal that they have $250,000,000 in Bitcoin. Not just that they've invested in Bitcoin but they're classifying it as a treasury reserve asset on their balance sheet.

这不同于股权投机者，而是将其视为现金及现金等价物。同月，长期参与加密领域的Square公司宣布，将资产负债表上1%的现金及等价物（约5000万美元）配置为比特币。

So not like an equity speculative investor. This is like, no, like we're Cash and cash equivalents. A cash yeah. Like in our treasury. Then in August Square, which of course has been part of the crypto and Bitcoin community for a long time, They put about 1% of their cash and cash equivalents on their balance sheet on their treasury into Bitcoin, about 50,000,000.

他们成为首家公开宣布将部分国库现金持有为比特币的运营企业。

So they're the first, like, operating company that is now saying we're gonna have part of our cash in our treasury that we're gonna hold in Bitcoin.

他们的决策逻辑和交易执行过程都有详细记录，我们会在资料来源中附上链接。那篇文章很值得一读，我认为很有启发性。

Also their rationale for why they did that and how they executed the trade is really well documented. They wrote it up, we'll link to it in our sources. It's worth reading that post. I think it's interested.

最后是11月的大新闻：资产管理巨头古根海姆（管理总规模约203.1万亿美元）旗下某50亿美元基金向SEC申请，拟通过交易所交易基金配置最高10%资金（即5亿美元）到比特币。综合来看，仅这些公开披露的交易——肯定还有更多未公开的机构持仓——就已为这个资产类别带来近10亿美元资金流入。

And then the last big announcement in November, Guggenheim which is a very large asset manager, I think they have about $203,100,000,000,000 in total across all of their vehicles. One of their funds, is a $5,000,000,000 fund, they register with the SEC to be able to invest up to 10% of the funds. So up to $500,000,000 in Bitcoin via exchange traded funds by doing that. So what's the net of this? So you've got even just across those those transactions which we mentioned, which are ones that are public, there's plenty more I'm sure that we don't even know about where managers haven't disclosed their holdings.

比特币并非交易量特别庞大的资产类别。正如我们所见，整个比特币的市值正在...

You've got close to a billion dollars of inflows flowing in to this asset class. It's not a super thickly traded asset class, right? Like the market cap for all of Bitcoin as we're running up here is in the

6500亿美元。

$650,000,000,000.

对，这是按当前价格计算的。但这些交易发生时，金额可能在1到3000亿美元之间波动。

Right, that's at today's prices. But as these transactions are happening, you know, it was probably ranging from 1 to 300,000,000,000.

没错。记住，在总共210亿枚币中，只有约30亿枚流通。目前大约已挖出1600万枚，可能稍多一些。

Right. And keep in mind only only 3 ish billion of the 21,000,000,000 coins that ever will be, So there's 20 1,000,000 total. There's something like 16,000,000 have been mined so far, maybe a little bit more.

我觉得还要再多一点。

A little more, I think.

但其中实际参与交易的只有300万枚。其余都是长期持有、遗失或其他情况。

But only 3,000,000 of those are actually ones that are traded. The rest are held long term, lost, whatever.

丝绸之路的币、门头沟的币、中本聪的币...有数百万枚就这样消失了无法交易。还有很多人根本不想交易，他们坚持持有，就像在说'我才不会卖这些'。

The Silk Road coins, the Mt. Gox coins, the Satoshi coins, you know, there's a whole swath of millions of coins that are just gone. They can't trade. Then you've got all the coins like that people don't wanna trade, you know, that they're holding like, yeah, I'm not gonna sell those.

当它增值这么快的时候，谁会现在把它当货币用？你必须理解HODLer的心态——当然我们还没讨论这个，稍后会分析——你现在根本没法在零售商那里花比特币，当然不能，因为现在谁舍得花这些？毕竟，价格是什么概念？

Why would you use this thing as currency right now when it's inflating so much? Like when it's appreciating so much? It's like you'd have to be out of your you understand the HODLer mindset, which of course also which we haven't talked about yet and I think we'll get into an analysis you can't really spend your Bitcoin at any retailers, but of course you can't because who is gonna spend these things right now? Right. Because so as you know, what is price?

这是

It's the

供需关系的交汇点。你看到这些前所未见的大规模需求涌入资产类别，比如单笔1亿、2亿美元的资金想要进场买入。而愿意出售的供应却很少。价格自然就会飙升。这就是正在发生的情况。

intersection of supply and demand. You've got these huge new chunks of demand, like blocks of demand sizes that have never been seen before in the asset class, you know, a 100,000,000, $200,000,000 at a time that wanna come in and buy. You've got not a lot of supply willing to sell. Of course, the price is gonna go through the roof. So that's what happens.

现在是个绝佳时机来感谢我们节目的好朋友ServiceNow。我们曾向听众讲述过ServiceNow惊人的创业故事，以及他们如何成为过去十年表现最出色的公司之一。但有些听众询问ServiceNow实际是做什么的。今天我们就来解答这个问题。

Now is a great time to thank good friend of the show, ServiceNow. We have talked to listeners about ServiceNow's amazing origin story and how they've been one of the best performing companies the last decade, but we've gotten some questions from listeners about what ServiceNow actually does. So today, we are gonna answer that question.

首先，最近媒体经常用一句话形容ServiceNow——它是企业的'AI操作系统'。具体来说，22年前ServiceNow创立时专注于自动化，将纸质流程转化为软件工作流，最初服务于企业内部的IT部门。随着时间推移，他们在这个平台上构建了更强大复杂的功能。

Well, to start, a phrase that has been used often here recently in the press is that ServiceNow is the, quote, unquote, AI operating system for the enterprise. But to make that more concrete, ServiceNow started twenty two years ago focused simply on automation. They turned physical paperwork into software workflows, initially for the IT department within enterprises. That was it. And over time, they built on this platform going to more powerful and complex tasks.

他们的服务从IT部门扩展到HR、财务、客户服务、现场运营等其他部门。在过去二十年里，ServiceNow完成了连接企业各个角落所需的繁琐基础工作，为实现自动化铺平了道路。

They were expanding from serving just IT to other departments like HR, finance, customer service, field operations, and more. And in the process over the last two decades, ServiceNow has laid all the tedious groundwork necessary to connect every corner of the enterprise and enable automation to happen.

当AI时代来临，本质上AI就是高度复杂的任务自动化。而谁已经搭建好了支持这种自动化的企业级平台和连接网络？正是ServiceNow。所以回答'ServiceNow如今做什么'这个问题时，他们说'连接并赋能每个部门'绝非虚言。

So when AI arrived well, AI kinda just by definition is massively sophisticated task automation. And who had already built the platform and the connective tissue with enterprises to enable that automation? ServiceNow. So to answer the question, what does ServiceNow do today? We mean it when they say they connect and power every department.

IT和HR用它管理全公司的人员、设备和软件许可；客户服务部门用它检测支付失败并路由到内部正确的处理团队；供应链部门用它进行产能规划，整合各部门数据确保协同一致。不再需要在不同系统间反复录入相同数据。最近ServiceNow还推出了AI助手，任何岗位的员工都能创建AI代理处理繁琐事务，让人力专注于更具战略性的工作。

IT and HR use it to manage people, devices, software licenses across the company. Customer service uses ServiceNow for things like detecting payment failures and routing to the right team or process internally to solve it. Or the supply chain org uses it for capacity planning, integrating with data and plans from other departments to ensure that everybody's on the same page. No more swivel chairing between apps to enter the same data multiple times in different places. And just recently, ServiceNow launched AI agents so that anyone working in any job can spin up an AI agent to handle the tedious stuff, freeing up humans for bigger picture work.

ServiceNow去年入选了《财富》全球最受赞赏公司榜单和《快公司》最佳创新者工作场所，这都源于其愿景。若想在企业各处充分利用ServiceNow的规模与速度，请访问servicenow.com/acquired，并告知是Ben和David推荐来的。

ServiceNow was named to Fortune's world's most admired companies list last year and Fast Company's best workplace for innovators last year, and it's because of this vision. If you wanna take advantage of the scale and speed of ServiceNow in every corner of your business, go to servicenow.com/acquired and just tell them that Ben and David sent you.

感谢ServiceNow。David，今天我们叙旧时我想指出，有一家机构Paradigm是由Fred Ersham和Matt Huang联合创立的。Matt曾是红杉合伙人，Fred则是Coinbase联合创始人，确实...

Thanks, ServiceNow. Well, David, as we catch up today, I wanna point out there's one institutional firm, Paradigm, that that is cofounded by, I think it's Fred Ersham and Matt Huang. Matt, of course, is former Sequoia partner, Fred of Coinbase co founder, definitely the Yeah.

他是Brian的联合创始人，他们两人

He was Brian's co founder, the two of them

共同创立了它。Matt提出了一个极佳的观点：若要我建议后续事项，其一是必读逻辑严密的比特币白皮书，其二就是阅读Matt对比特币的总结文章，可在paradigm平台找到。

co founded it. And so, Matt had made this really great point. If I could tell you to do things to follow-up, one is obviously the Bitcoin white paper remarkably cogent. The other is actually reading Matt's piece about sort of his summary of Bitcoin. It's at paradigm.

xyz上还有关于我们行动初衷、价值判断、潜在风险与机遇的精辟分析。他指出比特币虽经历泡沫，但正如David所言，每次泡沫破灭后都会在比前次更高的位置企稳。由于比特币需要网络效应来实现价值——这在很多方面是自我实现的预言——它实际上将泡沫作为市场进入策略：每次价格上涨都会吸引更多正规机构与资本入场，基础设施随之完善。当泡沫破裂时，虽然迟来的投机者难免亏损，

Xyz, and sort of like why we're doing what we're doing, why we think it's interesting, what the trade offs are, what the the where it could go wrong, where it could go right, really cogent analysis. But one of the things he points out is, of course, Bitcoin has these bubbles. But as David mentioned, every time they pop, sort it of plateaus at a higher level than the previous bubble. And because Bitcoin requires this network effect to be valuable for it is a self fulfilling prophecy in a lot of ways, it actually uses bubbles as a go to market strategy, where every time there's a run up, there's more and more legitimate players and more and more institutional capital that sort of pile in, more infrastructure gets built up. And then when the bubble pops and you sort of have a lot of the the sort of late coming speculators that of course lose money.

但狂热过后留存下来的正是这些基础设施与技术进步。这种市场策略确实耐人寻味。

What is left there is all that infrastructure and all that advancement that was made from the mania and the hype. And it's just really interesting to see that really is a go to market strategy.

这次最独特的是——过去几周价格涨跌后企稳的走势已显现——以往泡沫主要由散户推动，他们受心理因素影响容易恐慌抛售。而本次推高价格的需求方是Square的资产负债表和MicroStrategy的国债储备配置，这些机构投资者不会轻易抛售。

Well, and what's so interesting about this time and unique and we're already seeing this play out in how the price has risen, fallen and then stabilized over the past couple of weeks is in previous bubbles it was mostly individuals who are doing this, who are subject of course to individual psychological behaviors and like price crashes, like lots of people are gonna sell. Lots of people will huddle, lots of people will sell too. This time the demand, the big chunks of demand that's driving up the price, like this is Square's balance sheet. This is MicroStrategy holding this as a treasury reserve. They're not gonna sell.

他们正有意识地作为国库储备和多元化投资进行配置。即便价格暴跌50%或70%，这些机构投资者也不会抛售。关键在于我们正进入比特币的新阶段——机构参与阶段，这将带来更高的稳定性。那么过去一个月左右的价格走势如何？

Like they're investing purposefully as treasury and as diversification. The price crashes 50%, 70%, like what they're not gonna sell. They're institutions. And so part of the thinking here is that as we now shift into this new phase of Bitcoin where institutions are playing within it, there's gonna be a lot more stability. So what's happened with the price over the last month or so?

从3月份新冠疫情流动性危机时的3700美元，到11月比特币突破2017年12月的历史高点19860美元。再到2020年除夕时，比特币已飙升至29000美元，这简直疯狂。一个月内又涨了1万美元，涨势不止。就在上周（感觉像上个月）的1月第一周，价格突破4万美元。

So went from 3,700 in March during the COVID liquidity crash to by the November, Bitcoin surpasses that all time high of December 2017, It's $19,860 in November. And then by the December, by the 2020 on on New Year's Eve, we're sitting at $29,000 for a Bitcoin, which is insane. Another $10,000 in a month. It doesn't stop. The first week in January, which was last week, even though it feels like last month, it hits 40 k, $4.00.

最终比特币价格最高触及42000美元，随后在上周末（感觉像一个月前）回落至30000美元低点。所谓的'暴跌'之后可能还会出现类似情况，但这次回调后的价格仍比前高超出1万美元。

Ultimately, price goes all the way up to $42,000 per Bitcoin before coming back down again several days ago over the last weekend, even though it feels like a month ago, coming back down to a low of about $30,000. So the crash, quote unquote, we could have another crash like we don't know, but this crash is still $10,000 above the previous high.

目前价格在35000美元左右波动。

And is now trading right around 35,000.

没错，过去几天一直维持在这个水平。按照加密货币（至少是比特币）的时间尺度来看，价格在343.5万美元这个区间快速企稳。这与以往泡沫...

Right, which it has for the last several days. So by crypto timelines at least, by Bitcoin timelines, it's stabilized super quickly at this sort of $3,435,000 dollar price. This is very different than the way these bubbles

在我们发布这期节目时，市场可能已经经历了暴涨暴跌，谁知道呢

By and crunches played out the time we release this episode Yeah, who knows

会怎样

what it'll

比特币价格可能在1.5万美元，但是

be at Bitcoin 15 k but

没错。可能跌到3千，也可能涨到10万，谁知道呢，我们可能显得很蠢。但我觉得这次有趣的是，有大笔资金入场背后的动机各不相同。

Right. Could be at 3 ks, could be at 100 ks, you know, we don't know, we may look stupid. But I do think it's really interesting that you have different motivations this time of large blocks of capital that are coming in.

确实如此。好的。在进入分析前，我想分享几个今天的数据对比很有意思——因为我一直热衷于将比特币与公司、货币、资产管理规模进行比较。目前3.5万美元的单价意味着6500亿美元市值。让我们看看这个6500亿的参照系：美国最大银行摩根大通的总合并资产是3万亿美元，也就是说仅这一家银行托管的客户资产就是所有比特币市值的五倍。

Yep, for sure. Okay. Before we transition to analysis, there's like a couple of like today's stats that I think are just sort of interesting because I continue to be interested in comparing Bitcoin to a company, to a currency, to, like, assets under management. So this $35,000, a coin price implies a market cap of $650,000,000,000 Well, let's contextualize that $650,000,000,000 So the total consolidated assets of JPMorgan Chase, the largest bank in The United States is 3,000,000,000,000. So that's about five times all the Bitcoin out there is like at JPMorgan alone from people who have who bank with them is five times bigger.

这个对比数字值得记住。比特币其实挺有意思——如果你去美联储官网查看各特许银行的托管资金量，会发现...

Sort of an interesting number to keep in mind. I think Bitcoin, if you were to if you it's actually pretty interesting. You go to the Federal Reserve's website and just look at like, what's what are all the settled accounts? Like, within each bank, but at each bank, how much money do each does each bank in The US with a bank charter have on hand or or, in under their custodian? Interesting.

实际上不是现金持有量，而是托管规模。按这个标准，比特币若作为受美联储监管的银行，其规模能排进前五六名。另一个有趣的对比：苹果市值2.2万亿美元，约是比特币的四倍——可以衡量它与全球最具价值公司的差距。

Actually not on hand, specifically like how much do they are they a custodian for? So I think Bitcoin would be like the fifth or sixth largest institution on that list if it were a bank that was regulated by the Fed, is kind of interesting. It's also interesting just to compare it to like the market cap of Apple is 2,200,000,000,000.0. So four ish times, as big as Bitcoin is. If you want to think about it sort of like how valuable is it versus the most valuable company in the world.

另一个值得思考的数字是：当我们后续讨论比特币的总可触达市场机会（TAM）时——不是单个币价，而是整个比特币网络未来可能代表的全球价值。鉴于总量锁定在2100万枚，我们可以推算届时单币价值。目前美元总供应量约20万亿...

Another sort of interesting number to think about it, especially as later we will start thinking about what is what is the TAM for for Bitcoin? What's its total addressable opportunity? Not necessarily for a coin individually, but like for what could all of Bitcoin represent to the world at some point in total. And then because we know it caps out at 21,000,000, you actually can kind of do the math and be like, alright, what would the coin value be at that point? So the total money supply of US dollars is about 20,000,000,000,000.

正如David提到的，2020年1月时美元供应量约15万亿，近期增长显著。但比特币市值才刚突破5000亿，相比美国20万亿的货币供应量。另一个关键数字：全球货币总供应量约70万亿（可能已略有上涨）。

David, as you mentioned, it was about 15,000,000,000,000 in January 2020. So it's it's gone up quite a bit recently. But, but again, like Bitcoin about halfway to 1,000,000,000,000 compared to The US money supply over 20,000,000,000,000. Another interesting number to know is that the total money supply of all global currency, is about 70,000,000,000,000. So there's this interesting or was, I think it's gone up a little bit.

这么想还挺有意思的，你看，如果你相信它会取代所有货币，那你可以看看那个700亿的数字。如果你觉得它只是一种被持有的资产，就像投资组合的一部分，很多人把它比作黄金。

So it's sort of interesting to think about like, you know, if you're someone who believes that it's going to overtake all currencies, then you can sort of look at that 70,000,000,000 number. If you think it's just gonna be a sort of asset that gets held, in compare like it's a part of a portfolio, you know, a lot of people are likening it to gold. It's

有趣，大约是9万亿美元对吧？

interesting Which is about $9,000,000,000,000 is that right?

9万亿美元，实际上约有一半是以珠宝形式存在的。所以你不会完全取代它，没人会...实际上这里有个问题

$9,000,000,000,000 About half of it actually is in jewelry. So, you're not going to replace like no one's going to have actually there is something

跟CoinDaddy说去吧，老兄。

Tell that to CoinDaddy, man.

是啊。但有意思的是，你看，全球大约有4.5万亿美元的黄金不是用于珠宝的。它某种程度上可以取代这部分。它就像是数字黄金，我们接下来分析时会详细讨论。但了解一下它在当今世界的规模还是挺有意思的。

Yeah. But it is interesting to look at like, okay, there's about 4 and a half trillion dollars of gold out there not used in jewelry. It could sort of usurp that. It's kind of digital gold, which, you know, we'll get into all this as as we transition to analysis here. But sort of interesting to understand the scale of it in today's world.

是啊，太疯狂了。我是说，从白皮书一路走到现在。这段旅程简直不可思议，从白皮书到Papa John's，到丝绸之路，再到The Gathering，再到Winklevoss双胞胎，古根海姆投资它，对吧？

Yeah. Crazy. I mean, it's come a long way from the white paper. Like, this is such an improbable journey, you know, white paper to Papa John's to Silk Road to The Gathering to the Winklevoss twins, Guggenheim investing in it, right? Yeah.

这一切都发生在短短十二年内。

This is all within twelve years.

是的，我是说，这是个不太可能的故事，但你需要所有这些不同的派系、既得利益者、真正的信徒与机会主义者共同推动，才能达到今天的局面。

Yeah, I mean, it's an improbable story, but you sort of needed all these different factions and all these different vested interests and all these different true believers versus opportunists to sort of push it forward to where it is today.

好的，权力？对，我们开始吧。

All right, power? Yeah, let's do it.

对于新听众来说，这是我们根据最喜爱的书籍《七种力量》设置的环节，研究企业如何实现持续差异化回报，或者说如何长期比最接近的竞争对手更盈利。这里所说的力量，通常是指企业——在这里是货币或一种

And listeners for anyone new to the show, this is a section that we put in based on one of our favorite books called Seven Powers, which is a study of how businesses can achieve persistent differential returns, or put another way to be more profitable than their closest competitor on a sustainable basis. And so what we mean by power here is what what is the thing normally of a business in this case of a currency or a

或一个新的体系。

or a new A system.

货币体系，基本上能让它们超越最接近的竞争对手，赋予企业——姑且称之为——力量。

Money system, that that basically allows them to outcompete their closest competitors and gives the business for lack of a better word power.

没错。这会很有趣，因为我认为比特币拥有一大堆力量。最明显也是我们整期节目反复强调的，可能最强大的就是网络效应。

Yep. And this is gonna be so fun because I think they're a bunch that Bitcoin has, like a whole bunch. The obvious one that we've been banging the drum on through the whole episode and is probably the most powerful is is network economies, I think.

尤其是相对于其他加密货币。以太坊是唯一有机会的，但它更像是围绕智能合约和内置计算的不同用例。但可以肯定的是，你现在无法创建任何类似比特币的东西并有机会超越它。就像Facebook当初超越所有其他消费者社交网络和娱乐类应用，并聪明地收购那些达到规模的竞争者一样，比特币在这个范式初期就遥遥领先了。

In in particular versus other cryptocurrencies. Like, nothing Ethereum is the only one that stands a chance, and it just kind of has a different use case that that's really more around, the the smart contracts and compute that's sort of built into it. But for for sure, like, you can't start anything that looks like Bitcoin now and have any chance of beating it. Like it's in the same way that Facebook just outran any other consumer social network, consumer social entertainment type app, and then was obviously very smart in acquiring those who did get scale. Like, Bitcoin just leapt ahead at the beginning of this paradigm.

我认为很酷的一点是，这个概念在技术层面同样适用——随着时间的推移，投入比特币网络维护和强化的计算能力本身就是一个复合资产，对吧？因为投入的算力越多，破解难度就越大。

And I think what's cool is it even applies at the technical level too with this idea of like the amount of computing power going into that has gone into maintaining and making robust the Bitcoin network over time is itself a compounding asset, right? Like because the more power that goes in over time, the harder it is to crack.

比如，撤销。

Like, undo.

没错。只要比特币经济持续运转、矿工持续工作，就不可能存在任何理论上能造出的超级计算机能够回溯重做所有交易。而且这个优势差距只会越来越大。

Yeah. You can't there is no supercomputer that could conceivably ever be created that is going to as long as the Bitcoin economy, like, a miner's keep working, that is going to be able to go back and, like, redo everything and that that lead just keeps getting wider and wider and wider.

当然区块链上非常早期的记录基本不可能被篡改，但较新的记录——比如仅落后两三个区块的交易——确实存在风险。除非出现范式转变，比如量子计算突然实现，使得单核算力比过去提升千万倍之类的情况。

Certainly not really old things in the in the blockchain, but, you know, there there's always the risk on the newer ones, thing things that are only two or three blocks behind. And unless there's a paradigm change, like unless quantum computing arrives and suddenly you have, you know, 10,000,000 x more compute, than we did in the past on a single core or something like that.

这正是网络效应发挥作用的地方，中本聪在白皮书中也提到过这点。假设这种情况发生，只要当时网络足够庞大稳固，维护系统合法性的价值就体现出来了——比如你已持有比特币时。这是个绝妙的观点：既然你已持有比特币，你的利益诉求就是不要破坏系统。因为攻击系统会导致人们失去信任，进而使你持有的比特币贬值（作为矿工你肯定已经挖了不少）。所以即使你能伪造更多比特币，随着更多人加入系统，这种行为的负向激励会越来越强。

Well this is also where network economies come into play and Satoshi actually makes this point in the original white paper. Like let's say that happens as long though as the network is big enough and robust enough at that point, the value of legitimate, keeping the system legitimate, like say you already own Bitcoin. That's a great point. If you already own Bitcoin, then your incentivized interest is not to break the system because if you hack it, then people lose trust and then the value of the Bitcoins that you already hold which presumably if you're a miner you've already been mining, they go down. And so even if you could create more fake Bitcoins for yourself, you have this massive disincentive to do that as more people join the system.

确实精辟。系统设计的另一重机制是提供充足激励（当然会动态调整），确保矿工在作恶与诚实挖矿之间做选择时，后者能获得足够回报。如果你拥有量子计算机，系统会通过软件调整使得挖矿比攻击更划算。当然要说明的是，我和David对量子计算一窍不通，只知道它可能会带来单位算力的巨大飞跃——不管是每平方英寸还是每瓦特...（虽然'平方瓦特'显然不是标准单位）总之是单位算力。

Yeah, it's a great point. And if the other thing that the system is designed to do is to provide enough incentive and of course they rebalance this over time, but it provide enough incentive to the miners that if they were to make a call between being a malicious actor and mining, they should make it worth your time to to mine, to be white hat. And so if you had access to a quantum computer, they would adjust the software such that it would make more sense for you to mine than it would to attack. Of course caveats are bound here that David and I don't know Jack about quantum computing except that maybe it'll be a big leap forward in the amount of compute per square inch or per square watt or whatever. Square watts, a thing obviously, but you know, per unit.

网络效应绝对关键。我想补充一个有趣的对抗定位案例——不是针对其他加密货币，而是针对美元。对抗定位的定义（当然带有我的主观解读）就是做那些现有巨头无法效仿的事，否则会破坏他们的体系。美元就是最典型的例子。

So network economies, absolutely. One that I wanted to bring up that I think is interesting is it's counter positioned, but not against other cryptocurrencies. It's counter positioned versus the US dollar where, the definition of counter positioning, you know, of course with my editorial here is doing something that your, that incumbents basically can't because they would Break their system? Yes. And like there is no better example than the US dollar.

比如，如果美联储说比特币是个好主意，并认为那确实是未来。他们做不到，美联储的集中化基础设施和美国银行体系，比如中央联邦银行或联邦储备的概念，与比特币所代表的一切完全对立。我们的货币供应和整个银行体系与政府紧密耦合，这是有意为之的。所以美国政府不可能认为‘你是对的，去中心化才是出路’，因为这实际上会削弱美国政府乃至美国作为一个国家的权力。

Like if, the Fed was like Bitcoin's a really good idea. And they felt like actually that's the future. They cannot, the Fed's centralized infrastructure and The US banking system like the notion of the central federal bank or the Federal Reserve like it is completely antithetical to everything that Bitcoin stands for. Like our monetary supply and our entire banking system exists in a coupled, very intentionally coupled manner with our government. And so it's not like it would ever be in the US government's interest to be like, you're right, a decentralized thing would be the way to go because it removes so much of the power of US government, frankly The US as a nation.

是的，就像网络经济一样，我认为反定位还有另一层应用，不仅针对美元，而是针对整个金融体系本身。我们这期节目开始时谈到银行、信用卡公司和传统金融机构的运作方式，都基于账号、信用卡号这套系统。他们无法回头将其改成公私钥体系。他们最多能做到的...

Yep, well, and just like network economies, I think there's another level that counter positioning applies at too, which isn't just the US dollar, it's at the financial system itself. Like we started the episode with the way banks work and the way credit card companies work, way traditional financial institutions work is based on this, you know, number, bank account number, credit card number system. They can't go back and change that and make it into a public private key thing. Like the best that they can do Well,

某种程度上我觉得他们可以。

I sort of I think they could.

我是说，他们可以，但那些ACH系统呢？你要怎么协调所有银行之间突然...

Mean Well, they could, but all those like ACH are you gonna have how are you gonna coordinate every bank out there in that talks to every other bank to now all of a

通过联邦法令强制推行，就像...

sudden Federal mandate in the same way

我们当初过渡到...

that we moved

芯片密码卡那样。确实。确实。好吧。如果有足够动力，他们可以采用更先进安全的技术，但无法改变其中心化与去中心化的战略。是的。

to chip and pin. That's true. True. Okay. They could adopt a superior and more secure technology if there was enough of an incentive to do so, but they could not change their centralization versus decentralization strategy because Yep.

我想引入另一种思维模式，美国政府以及所有拥有法定货币的政府，都将国家的安全、稳定和正常状态与货币捆绑在一起。当人们说美元是由美国政府的全部信用背书时，这确实是字面意义上的事实。它是法定货币。某种程度上，如果你进行大规模商业活动而政府要求你接受美元，你若拒绝——要知道他们可是有军队的。

Like to bring in another sort of mental model, the US government has and all governments who have fiat currency have bundled the sort of like safety, security, and like amount of normalcy or normality of the nation with money. And like when people say the US dollar is backed with the full faith of the US government, like that that is literally true. It is legal tender. Like at some point if you're like conducting business on a large scale and the government's like, you accept US dollars please? And you're like, no, like they do have an army.

因此它们是刻意交织在一起的，这种战略安排确保我们的经济体系运行在政府货币之上。这个策略长期以来运作得非常成功。我不认为作为世界最强国的现有政府会采取相反立场——那简直是自我定位的矛盾。转向其他体系将吞噬他们建立的一切。

So they are intertwined intentionally and it is strategic to be able to make it so that our economy runs on our government's currency. And that's been a strategy that's worked really well for a long time And I don't think an existing government who is the strongest nation in the world can like there it's literally a definition of counter positioning. They would cannibalize everything they've built by switching to it.

我指的是这对传统银行体系来说可能难以实施，但并不违背它们的利益。而这样做完全与美元的利益背道而驰。

What I'm talking about is more like this would be hard for the traditional banking system to do, but it's not against their interest to do it. Whereas it's actually against Totally. The US dollar's interest to refashion itself like this.

没错。有趣的是，顺着这个思路，我之前提到的货币稀释概念——将新增货币比作公司股份稀释。我确信绝大多数美元实际上由境外持有者掌握，他们将其视为全球价值计量的标准。那个专业术语我一时想不起来了...

Yep. It's funny, in this vein, one thing that dilution idea I was talking about earlier where I was comparing, adding new money to the money supply to the sort of dilution of your shares in a company. I'm pretty sure that the vast majority of US Dollars are actually held by non held outside The US by people that are using it as, hey, this is the way that the world denominates value. It is the I can't remember what the phrase is

像是储备货币的概念。

but like Like a reserve currency, think.

对对。比例大概是70%——别直接引用这个数据——但超过半数是在美国境外持有的。所以我们增发货币时，对其他国家造成的伤害其实比对我们更大。这种做法在某种程度上是可行的，当然过度操作会导致恶性通胀，最终动摇其全球储备货币的地位。

Yeah, yeah. And it's something like 70%, don't quote me on that, but it's more than half is held outside The US. And so when we do things like print more money, it actually hurts everyone else more than it hurts us. And you can kind of do that to a certain extent. Obviously, you do it too much, you create a huge problem and then you create the sort of hyperinflationary thing and people don't trust it as the global reserve currency anymore.

但如果你决定稀释全球持有者10%的价值，他们承受的冲击将远超过我们。这实际上...

But like, if you're like, you know what, gonna basically dilute everyone by 10% and they're gonna take the hit a lot more than we are. That's actually

我们正在做的事情。这确实是个很好的观点，通胀不仅伤害本国公民，也伤害那些央行持有美元储备的其他国家。对于本国公民来说，除了移民几乎无计可施；但对于其他国家央行而言，它们最终可能会决定改用其他资产作为储备货币——这是它们可以做出的选择。

what we're doing. That's actually a really good point where yes you're hurting your own citizens with inflation but you're also hurting these other countries whose central banks are holding your paper, your dollars. That's something that like your own citizens there's kind of nothing you can do short of like moving to another country if you're a citizen and you don't like this But if you're another country's central bank at a certain point, you're gonna be like, screw it. I'm gonna use a different asset as my reserve currency. Like you can make that choice.

没错。就像早期Facebook那个例子，扎克伯格对爱德华多·萨维林进行股权稀释时，给除了爱德华多之外所有人增发大量新股。你不能像印钞那样凭空创造大量新货币——虽然联邦刺激计划某种程度上就是这么干的：我们印新钱却只发给美国公民。

Yeah. And unlike what to to roll back to that early Facebook example, when Zuckerberg did the Eduardo Saverin dilution move where he issued a crap ton of new shares to everyone except for Eduardo. They don't you can't do that where like you create a whole bunch of new money. I guess actually that's sort of what we're doing with the federal stimulus. Like we create a bunch of new money and then we only give it to US citizens.

但实际上这种把戏玩不了太多次，就像一匹小马驹经不起反复折腾。

Actually But like you can only trot Yeah, that pony can only trot that pony out so many times.

是的。好吧，我觉得这里还有更多内容。

Yep. Okay. I think there's some more in here.

这绝对是百分之百的垄断资源。这些东西的总量是固定的，软件代码里就写死了永远不会增发货币。所以严格来说这就是一种被垄断的资源。

It is a thousand percent a cornered resource. Like, there's a finite number of these things available. So, like, it is written into the software and that it's you're never gonna increase the money supply. So like, it's it is quite literally a cornered resource.

嗯，对持有者来说是垄断资源，但对整个系统而言...

Well, it's cornered resource for people who own it. For the system itself

噢，这个观点很好。关键取决于你在这里考虑的是哪个行为主体。

Oh, that's a good point. It depends who the actor is that you're considering here.

当然，对于任何持有比特币的人来说，绝对如此。关键在于，其程序设计确保了长期来看通胀率极低甚至为零，这本身就是一种难以置信的价值源泉。

Certainly though for anybody who holds Bitcoin, absolutely. This is, the fact that there is programmed in, you know, minimal to, you know, no inflation in the long term is an incredible, source of value.

更不用说它是有史以来最安全的系统。这种公私钥对的设计。想想中本聪。你有150万这样的东西，安全到人们甚至因为丢失密钥而无法登录查看。它被超级严密地保护着。

Not to mention it's like the most secure system to ever exist. This public private key pair thing. Think about Satoshi. You got a million and a half of these things and it's so secure that like people can't even log in to view their because they're losing it. You got it super cornered.

它不会逃到任何地方去。

It's not fleeing anywhere.

那么我们来谈谈规模经济。我认为这里存在规模经济效应，让我们深入探讨一下。规模经济就像Netflix那样，因为它拥有大量订阅用户，每月能产生巨额收入，所以可以斥资1亿美元购买内容版权，并通过海量用户分摊成本，而像Peacock这样的小型平台就无法盈利地支付同等费用。我认为这可能也适用于矿池资源。比如人们可以选择挖任何加密货币。

So let's talk about, I wanna explore scale economies. So I think there's scale economies here but let's talk about it. So scale economies of course being Netflix like because Netflix has so many subscribers that they make so much monthly revenue from they can go pay a $100,000,000 for a piece of content and amortize over it over all those subscribers that a smaller service say like Peacock or whatever can't afford to pay the same amount for that content profitably. In this case, I think it might apply to the mining pool resources. So like if people are gonna mine, you could mine any cryptocurrency.

对吧？但比特币确实具有吸引力，不是吗？

Right? But yeah, there's gravity to Bitcoin, right?

如果人们认为某种币最具未来增值潜力和持久力，他们就会选择挖它。

People are gonna mine yours if they think it has the most potential future upside and staying power.

没错，而且因为大量其他人在挖矿和交易，这就形成了...或许这又回到了网络效应而非规模经济。不过挖矿行业本身确实存在规模经济。虽然这与比特币系统是分开的，但如果你想成为矿工...

Right, and because lots and lots of other people are mining and transacting that's creating Well maybe this is back to just network economies instead of scale economies. Certainly there is for Let's look at the mining industry itself. Certainly that is a scale economies industry. Now that's separate from the Bitcoin system, but if you wanna be a miner

没错。现阶段唯一可行的方式就是使用专用硬件，并在特殊地理位置的数据中心进行操作。

Right. Like, the only way you're doing it at this point is with dedicated hardware and a data center in a very special location.

正是如此。你不可能用一台笔记本电脑就能搞定。

Exactly. Like, you're you're not doing it with a laptop.

对。这是因为太多人参与其中，大部分价值已被套利行为榨取，而且一旦发现区块就是一场竞赛。所以你必须拥有最低成本结构才能成为矿工。

Right. And and it's because like so many people have like a lot of the value has gotten arbitrage out of doing it by lots of other people trying to do it and it's a race once you find a block. So you have to have the lowest cost structure in order to be a miner.

这完全就像Netflix这类公司的情况。好，转换成本。我们对转换成本怎么看？你可以自由兑换其他货币。

Which is exactly like Netflix and the like. Okay. Switching costs. What do we think about switching costs? You can exchange in and out of other currencies.

所以我认为转换成本其实相当低。是的，即使是矿工也可能将挖矿设备转用于其他币种。

So I think switching costs are actually pretty low. Yeah. Even as a miner you can probably repurpose your mining gear to other currencies.

兑换其他货币确实存在交易成本，但相比拆除企业级SaaS解决方案——按照汉密尔顿式的定义来说——转换成本算是相当低了。

There's transaction costs to switching in and out of other currencies but like as compared to like ripping out an enterprise SaaS solution in sort of the Hamiltonian definition of it, it's pretty low switching costs.

我认为这里根本不存在什么流程权力。不。我觉得最后一个问题是品牌效应。如果你有一千美元投资，你会选择比特币吗？因为你了解和信任比特币胜过其他选择？

I don't think there's process power in any sense here. No. I think the last question is branding. Would you rather say you had a thousand dollars to invest. Would you rather do you put that in Bitcoin because you know and trust Bitcoin versus something else?

我是说，会这样，但这是因为网络效应。因为我觉得，如果二十年后有一种主导的加密货币在全球经济中占据重要地位，那将会是比特币。这不是因为品牌效应。不是因为，嗯，是的。

I mean, would, but it's because it's it's it's it's because of the network economies. It's because like, I I I feel like it if there's gonna be a dominant cryptocurrency that is a huge part of our global economy twenty years from now, it's going to be Bitcoin. And it's not because of the brand. Like, it's not because it's ins yeah.

如果其他东西具备相同的属性、动态和系统背后的网络，但名称不同，是的，我不认为那里有任何品牌力量。

If something else had the same properties and dynamics and network behind its system and it were called something else, yeah, don't think I don't think there's any brand power there.

是的。我认为关于权力的最后一点，我在你谈论网络经济时应该提到的，就是再次回到与美元的对比。政府支持的货币在网络经济力量方面相比其他任何东西都有着绝对巨大的先发优势。政府规定你必须用美元缴税，所以自动意味着这个国家的每个人都必须持有一定数量的美元来缴税。或者至少他们必须，

Yeah. I think the last thing the last thing to talk about in power that that I I should have talked about when you were talking about network economies is, again, going back to this comparison to the US dollar, government backed currency has an absolutely enormous head start on their network economy's power versus anything else. Like, the government mandates that you pay your taxes in USD. So automatically it means that like every single person in the country must own some amount of USD in order to pay their taxes in it. Or at least they have to,

他们必须使用它？

They have to use it?

或者他们可能接受工资以美元支付。所以资金实际上以该货币从每个人至少一个方向流动。这样就激活了网络上的许多节点。另一方面，政府用该货币支付债务或账单。所以它被支付给其他国家，支付给每个承包商。

Or maybe they're like accepting their wages in it. So money is flowing from literally every person in least one direction in that currency. So like that lights up a bunch of nodes on the network. On the other hand, the government pays its debts or its bills in that currency. So like it's getting paid out to every other country, it's getting paid out to every contractor.

而且政府承包商行业实际上在美国经济中占很大一部分。我不认为

And like the government contractor industry is actually like a it's a large part of The US economy. I don't think

哦，完全同意。我妈妈听到政府合同律师这个词会很高兴的。

Oh, totally. My mom's gonna be so happy listening to the government contractor lawyer government contracts lawyer.

哦，不错。虽然不知道它是否真的友好，但确实是我们经济中一个巨大的组成部分。政府就是客户。所以你看，考虑到网络上有多少节点默认都在使用政府支持的货币，任何事物想要与之竞争都显得不可思议。

Oh, nice. Yeah, like it is don't know it's being nice. But yeah, it is a huge segment of our economy. The government is the customer. And so you like, it's incredible anything can ever compete with government backed currency given how many nodes on the network are already by default dealing in government backed currency.

这或许是个很好的过渡，让我们进入下一部分。

That might be a good transition out of power into our next section.

是的，听众朋友们，否则我们下一部分要讨论的就是可能发生的情况。很多时候我们喜欢审视某个特定事件，想象如果它朝不同方向发展会怎样。这次我们可能也会这么做，但我们要调整这部分内容，基本上就是说，让我们做个比较。让我们把比特币运作的各种奇特方式与正常的法定货币体系、美元进行对比，分析其中的异同点。我想从这个问题开始：什么是货币？

Yeah, so listeners what would have happened otherwise is our next section. A lot of times we like to look at a specific event and wonder if it had gone in a different direction. We may do that here, but we want to adapt this section to basically say like, let's compare this. Let's compare all the weird ways that Bitcoin works to the normal fiat currency system to USD, and and sort of compare and contrast some of the elements. And the the way that I sort of wanna start is, like what is money?

货币的目的是什么？现在我们要稍微学术一点了，但货币有三个功能。它是记账单位，是我们用来衡量某物价值的方式。比如当你看到一加仑牛奶时，脑海中会浮现它的价格，那就是记账单位——你用来计量世界的方式。

Like what is the purpose of money? And now we're getting a little bit, I suppose, academic, but it is three things. It's a unit of accounts, so it's the way that we basically say this thing is worth that much. Like when you look at a gallon of milk and you in your head it sort of occurs to you how much it costs, that's the unit of account. It's the way that you account for the world.

它是价值储存手段。比如我赚了些钱存进储蓄账户，就是以现金形式储存，将来可以取出来使用。它还是交换媒介——我在市场上买苹果时使用的方式。

It's a store of value. So I made some money, put it in a savings account, that's denominated in cash. I'm gonna come back and use that in the future. And it's a medium of exchange. It's the way that I buy apples at the market.

当然，从某些方面来说，通货是货币的子集。它实际上就是以各种支付形式存在的货币，通常是政府发行的纸币或硬币等。我提到这个是因为想讨论比特币圈里常说的一个短语，也是我们节目讨论过的。如果有人对我说比特币是泡沫，我会毫不犹豫地同意。

And of course then currency is sort of in some ways a subset of that. It is literally like money in the form of however you pay for it. So in the form of paper or coins generally issued by government, things like that. And I bring this up because I wanna talk about this phrase that people throw around in Bitcoin bubble, and that we've talked about on this show. So if someone were to say to me Bitcoin is a bubble, I would say for sure, like no doubt it's a bubble.

同样地，美元也是泡沫。只不过是个持续时间很长的泡沫。你会如何定义泡沫呢？我要再次引用Matt Huang在他备忘录中的话，因为我觉得说得特别好。他的观点是：我们可以把货币视为永不破裂（或至少至今未破）的泡沫。

Also, so is USD. Just a really long bubble. Like, how would you define bubble? And I, again, I'm gonna quote Matt Huang here from his, his memo because I think it's super good. His comment is we can think of money as a bubble that never pops or at least hasn't popped yet.

无论是法定货币、黄金还是比特币，其价值都依赖于集体信念。政府的权力、黄金的工业用途或比特币代码基础的稳健性等因素可以强化这种信念，但信念本身才是关键。当我们思考货币时，有个非常有趣的现象——它不像股票那样可以基于特斯拉当前或未来可能产生的正向现金流来评判其估值是否过高。作为股东，你或许会认为股价远超其实际效用或内在价值。但货币从定义上讲就没有内在价值。

And the value of fiat currency gold or Bitcoin is relying on collective belief. Other factors like a government's power, the industrial utility of gold, or the robustness of Bitcoin's code base can help reinforce this belief, but this belief is critical. And I think there's something really interesting as we think about money or currency here, It's not like a stock where sure you could say like, oh, Tesla is a bubble because it's, you know, relative to, its current positive cash flows or any reasonable future positive cash flows that it could have. Like you could argue like, it's trading way way too high above the sort of utility or intrinsic value of what you're entitled to as a shareholder of that company, know, and you're entitled to the future profits of it. Currency definitionally has no intrinsic value.

没错。

Right.

字面意义上，赋予货币价值的唯一因素就是集体信念——人们相信未来其他人仍会认可它的价值。

Like it literally, the only thing that gives it value is the collective belief that other people will continue to value it in the future.

确实。不过你现在讨论的内容已经快速超出了我们在宏观经济学、学术和历史方面的深度了。但没错，这个论点就像1971年之前关于美元与黄金挂钩的争论——当时你用一美元兑换的黄金量少于用一美元能买到的黄金量，但毕竟还能换到些黄金。而1971年尼克松废除金本位后，美元本质上就和比特币没区别了。

Right. Well, is, you know, where you're getting to exceed our macroeconomic, academic and history depth here quickly. But yeah, this is the argument like before 1971, there was some argument about the US dollar that it was pegged to gold and that you, you know, you couldn't get as much gold as you could buy for a dollar if you turned in a dollar, but you could get some gold. Like, there was something. But then after 1971 when Nixon, signed that away and The US went off the gold standard, yeah, it's just it's no different than Bitcoin.

本质上，支撑这一切的除了你对美国政府体系稳健性的信念外别无他物。而通过本期节目我们要阐明的是：比特币也是如此——你相信的是比特币作为系统的稳健性。嗯。

Like, it's just the the there is no tangible thing underneath it all other than your belief in the robustness of US government as a system. And hopefully, I think what we've laid out on this episode is that with Bitcoin, it is the same. You are believing in the robustness of Bitcoin as a system. Mhmm.

是的，这非常有趣。货币可以是任何我们习惯用于实现三大功能的东西：记账单位、价值储存和交换媒介。实际上大多数东西都是糟糕的货币形式——如果美元太容易被撕成两半，或者没有序列号谁都能复制的话...我要继续引用Matt的话，因为他说得太精辟了。

Yeah. It's a it's really interesting. Like, you know, currency is anything that we're comfortable sort of using as this way of, again, the the three points are a unit of account, a store of value, a medium exchange. So, like, most things actually are a pretty crappy form of currency. If you can rip a dollar in half too easily, or, you know, if anybody could copy it and they didn't have serial numbers, there's a I'm gonna I'm gonna keep quoting Matt here because it's just so good.

他指出：'与所有货币资产一样，比特币必须具备稀缺性、便携性、可替代性、可分性、持久性和广泛接受度才能发挥作用。比特币在多数维度表现优异，唯独缺乏广泛接受度——这正是我们讨论网络效应时提到的。相比之下，美元在稀缺性方面只能说勉强合格，但问题在于货币供应量正在...'

But he says, as with any monetary asset, Bitcoin must be scarce, portable, fungible, divisible, durable, and broadly accepted in order for it to be useful. Bitcoin rates strongly across most of these dimension dimensions except for broad acceptability, which of course we've sort of talked about with the network effect. So like the dollar is that if I had to sort of score it scarce, it's like it's reasonably scarce. The issue is monetary Getting less

稀缺性确实如此。

scarce though.

便携性当然有，但不如比特币。比如要携带一百万美元的现金，箱子会相当笨重。可替代性方面，美元确实具备——任何一美元本质上都相同。我认为比特币在可替代性上完全不占优势。可分性上两者都有最小单位——

Portable certainly, again not as portable as Bitcoin because like if you want to carry a suitcase for a million dollars it's kind of hard. Fungible, it certainly is that. Mean any dollar is kind of the same thing as any other dollar. I don't think Bitcoin wins at all on fungibility. Divisible, they both have a tiny little unit.

美元有美分作为最小价值单位，比特币则有聪（Satoshi），大约是比特币的千分之一还是万分之一？

There's cents, which, you know, represent the smallest amount that anything could really be worth or there's Satoshis, which is one so one one thousandth of a Bitcoin, one ten thousandth?

不不不，比那更小——我记得是10的负8次方，10的负7次方还是负8次方。

No, no, no. It's less than it's one I think it's 10 to the eighth, 10 to the seventh or 10 to the eighth, negative negative seventh or negative eighth.

如果比特币继续升值，我们可能得设计比聪更小的单位。

So we may have to come up with something smaller than that if Bitcoin continues to sort of rise.

耐久性方面...这话题说来话长啊。

Durable You have to go a long way from here.

完全同意。耐久性上比特币远超美元——美元纸币用旧了还会被回收销毁，而比特币在冷钱包硬盘里根本不会损耗。所以除了广泛接受度这点，比特币在其他方面都完胜。

Totally. Durability, I mean the Bitcoin is like way, way more durable than US dollars. Like we rotate dollars out of the system every once in a while because they just get too ratty. And like that's your Bitcoins are not going to degrade on a hard driver in cold storage somewhere. So there's this interesting, you know, basically in everything except for broadly accepted, Bitcoin sort of wins.

现在，再次谈到我们之前讨论的美元在网络效应上具有压倒性优势的问题，就像TBD所说，尽管比特币在各方面都更优，但它真能与之抗衡吗？我认为一个开放的问题是：它是否需要对抗，还是可以作为补充共存？但比特币还有三个美元不具备的特性——实际上有四个，回到Matt Huang的观点：它是数字化的、可编程的、去中心化的、抗审查且全球通用。这正是让人开始幻想一种真正属于互联网的货币的地方。比如智能合约，虽然比特币上只能有限度地实现。

Now, again, that thing we talked about earlier with the US dollar having this overwhelming unbelievable head start on the network effect, Like TBD, if if if Bitcoin can actually, even though it's better in all these ways, can it actually fight that? And I think an open question is does it need to or can it sort of exist as a complement alongside? But there's three more features that Bitcoin has that USD doesn't, which and again, going back to Matt Huang here, it is digital, programmable, there's actually four decentralized and censorship resistant and universal. And I think that's where you start to get into this like daydreaming about finally a currency for the internet. Things like smart contracts, you can do on a very limited basis with Bitcoin.

要知道它是原生的数字资产，不是那种'我转你点钱'但实际是赊账、事后兑现的把戏。你是实实在在地在瞬间或三十分钟内将资金从一个账户转移到另一个账户。去中心化和抗审查的特性非常有趣。五到十年前，我可能不会认为这对货币至关重要。但最近的事件动摇了每个人的信心，或许我确实需要一些对冲。

You know that it's digital first where you're not saying like I'm transferring you some money but like wink wink it's on credit and I'll make good on it later. Like you're literally instantly or within thirty minutes moving money from one place, know, from one account to another. The decentralized and censorship resistant, it's very interesting. Five, ten years ago I would not have been a person that's like, oh, that's super important in money. But like I think everyone's confidence has been a little bit shaken by recent events and like, it actually maybe I do want to hedge.

或许我确实需要一定比例的对冲以防万一

Like maybe I do want some amount of hedge in case

需要明确的是，不仅是美国近期的事件（比如国会山骚乱），还有中国乃至全球各地的情况。除了新西兰——我觉得新西兰正在崛起——很难想到

And to be clear, certainly recent events in The US like the capital happening but also recent events in China and all over the world. Like it's hard to think of maybe except New Zealand. I think New Zealand's doing on the rise But it's hard to

还有哪个国家政府当前在全球范围内的公信力没有下降。如果你来自阿根廷、希腊或过去几十年经历过货币危机的任何地方，此刻恐怕会跳起来大喊：你们这些愚蠢的美国人，快醒醒吧！这种事就是会发生。仅仅因为你们还没经历过，不代表永远不会发生。

think of other governments where like trust isn't going down around the world right now. And if you're from Argentina or Greece or anywhere that's had sort of a currency crisis in the last few decades, you're probably jumping out of your seat right now going you stupid Americans like get this through your head, like this stuff happens. Like just because you guys haven't had it happen yet, like it doesn't mean it's not gonna happen.

确实如此。我在历史事实中跳过了这一点，但比特币的重大时刻是在2013年塞浦路斯破产违约时，政府直接国有化了公民的部分银行存款。说清楚点：当时塞浦路斯的情况是，如果你在银行账户持有超过10万美元等值资金，政府违约时就会像我在纳税噩梦场景中描述的那样，直接拿走你超过10万美元的全部存款。

That's true. I skipped over it in history and facts but a huge moment for Bitcoin was in 2013 when Cyprus went bankrupt and defaulted and nationalized parts of like bank accounts of citizens. So like, let's get this clear. Here's what happened in Cyprus. If you held over the equivalent of like a $100,000 in a bank account in Cyprus, When the Cyprus government defaulted, they reached into your bank accounts like I was saying in my nightmare scenario when paying my taxes, and they just took all your money over a $100,000.

他们直接国有化了这些钱。天啊！这种事确实在世界上发生了。于是当时很多人——包括世界各地的人——都震惊地意识到：现在我终于明白为什么需要比特币了。

They just nationalized it. Holy crap. And that happens in the world. And so, like, a bunch of those people, like and around the world were like, holy crap. Like, I see now why I want Bitcoin.

确实，这很疯狂。这就是我想进行对比的方式，我们常做的这种比较，以及如果没有比特币会发生什么。这有点像我把比特币与美元对比，可能不太公平。随着讨论深入，大卫，你比我更了解背景，或许正确的比较对象应该是黄金而非美元。

Yeah. That's wild. So that that's sort of how I wanted to go about, you know, in in this comparison that we often make and what would have happened otherwise, this is sort of my Bitcoin to USD, comparison. And that might not be fair. Like, I think as we as we move forward here, I think, David, you have a little bit more context here than I do, the right comparison may actually be to gold, not to USD.

至少在比特币当前发展阶段，重点可能不在于能否用于零售场景，而更多在于它是否能成为可靠的价值储存手段。

And and at least in this point at this point in Bitcoin's development, it might be less about can I use it at at retail opportunities and more about, hey, like, can I at least count on it being a good store of value?

没错。我想这正是关键。我们稍后会在评分环节详细讨论它在不同维度的表现，但大多数人——尤其是现在入场比特币的机构——他们并非将其视为美元的替代品，而是补充。他们认为这是一种良好的价值储存方式。

Yeah. I mean, that's the thing I think. Well we'll get into this in grading and how it's performed across different dimensions but I think most people certainly all the institutions that are coming into Bitcoin right now they're not thinking about it as versus USD. It's not an or it's an and. Like, this is a good store of value.

我担心美元和其他相对安全资产会出现通胀。比特币虽然波动剧烈，但它有上涨潜力且不会经历通胀。很好，我会像看待黄金那样看待它。

I'm worried about inflation in USD and other relatively secure assets. Now Bitcoin has tons of volatility, but it's got upside and it's not gonna experience inflation. Great. Like I'm gonna view it like I view gold.

顺便说一句，你知道黄金的货币供应量在增加吗？每年新开采的黄金大约增加1.5%——没错，就是字面意义上的挖矿。当然不像美元那样可以随意大规模增发。比特币支持者会指出，即便比特币才诞生十二...或者说九到十一年，其年货币供应增长率已经低于黄金了。有趣，我之前不知道这个数据——大约1%对比黄金的1.5%或6%。

And by the way did you know gold's money supply increases? I think it's like from finding new gold every year but like it's Like 1.5 it's literally from mining, you know they're adding to the gold money supply. Obviously not at the whim and and in such great volume as as USD is, but, one one thing that Bitcoin proponents would espouse is that already even with, you know, we're only twelve years into this or ten nine, eleven years into this, already the money supply increases by less per year than gold does. Oh, interesting. I didn't It's see like one ish percent versus 1.5 or 6%.

好吧，在'如果没有比特币会发生什么'这个话题里还有什么其他角度？我是说...

All right. What else in what would have happened otherwise? I mean,

我们可以讨论些有趣的假设：如果丝绸之路网站还在运营？如果DPR没被捕？如果没出现Coinbase和Gemini这类平台，我们还在用门头沟交易所？不过这些可能没那么有意思，就像任何企业故事都充满偶然因素。

we could talk about interesting things like what if Silk Road, what if DPR hadn't gotten arrested and it were still operating? What if Coinbase and Gemini and the like hadn't been built and we were still all running on Mt. Gox? I don't know that those are that interesting. Like, I think those are you know, they're kinda like any company story we tell where, like, takes a lot of luck along the way.

你必须获得幸运的突破才能继续前进，比特币无疑做到了这一点。我们何不继续讨论操作手册？因为我认为实际上很多内容都指向我操作手册中的一个重要主题。

You gotta get the lucky breaks to keep going and Bitcoin certainly had that. Why don't we move on to on the playbook? Because I think I think actually a lot of those for me feed into one of my big playbook themes.

酷。我最大的主题绝对是这种将泡沫作为市场进入策略的概念。我的第二大主题是，再次强调，我完全被阅读白皮书的美感和简洁性所吸引。比特币中发生了一些罕见的事情，我认为并不常见，那就是一小套非常聪明、非常简单的发明协同工作，释放出巨大的新价值。它们建立在过去巨人的肩膀上，如公钥加密和单向函数。

Cool. Well, my my biggest one is definitely this notion of bubbles as a go to market strategy. My second biggest one is, again, I'm just like so entranced by the beauty and simplicity of reading the white paper. There's something rare that happened in Bitcoin that I don't think happens often, is that just a small set of very clever, very simple inventions working together, unlocking a tremendous amount of new value. And they built on shoulders of giants past like public key encryption and one way functions.

当然还包括来自Hashcash和其他前人的工作量证明。但我的意思是，区块链整合了之前各种元素的理念，形成一个紧凑且近乎完美的系统，这确实是一个奇迹。无论你对比特币及其引发的一切有何看法，它都是一个美丽的系统。

And, and certainly the proof of work from Hashcash and other people that had come before. But I mean, the notion of a blockchain incorporating elements of of, of the things that came before in sort of a a a tight and near perfect system is really a marvel. No matter how you feel about Bitcoin and everything that's happened because of it, it is a beautiful system.

确实如此，我们在开始录音前就讨论过。我重读白皮书时的第一反应是，肯定还有更多内容。它只有九页。我当时想，肯定有一堆他们没有描述的小细节、技巧和需要做的事情才能使这个系统运作，比如这个情况怎么办？那个情况怎么处理？

It is, I mean, we were talking about this before we started recording. My first reaction in rereading the white paper for this was like, there's gotta be more. It's only nine pages. I was like, oh, well there's gotta be a bunch of stuff that they're not describing that other little things and hacks and stuff you need to do to make this work and like, well what about this case? What about that case?

然后仔细想想。

And then but then think about it.

比如增加区块大小以及已经发生的这些分叉

There is with like increasing the block size and like these forks that have happened

在分叉中确实有。是的。所有这些事情都如此微小，相对而言非常少。过去十年里，你可能一只手就能数出需要对系统进行的额外修改，而这些在这九页文件中都未提及。这真是不可思议。

There's in the forks. Yeah. All this stuff that like so small, like so relatively few things. Like you can probably count on one hand the number of like additional modifications to the system that have had to be made over the last ten years that weren't captured in this nine page document. It's incredible.

是的。我认为中本聪未能预见的最大变革，就是比特币最初被设计用来替代互联网支付层、首要目标是创建一个低交易成本且无欺诈的支付系统。但随着深入探究，你会意识到...

Yeah. It is. I think it's it's I think the biggest change that Satoshi did not foresee that is that will need to happen is the one that's going on now and the one that hasn't really been implemented yet where Bitcoin was initially kind of created to replace the payments layer on the internet and and first and foremost and and create a low transaction cost payment system with no fraud. And as as you sort of dive deeper and deeper and deeper, it you realize Yeah.

实际上它在这方面并不出色。

It's actually not great at that.

没错。以它目前的形式，因为有太多人想使用它，它更像是存在于技术栈的不同层级。比如看货币栈结构：底层是美元，之上是美联储，再往上是中央银行体系，然后才是你在银行的账户。

Right. Like what it is in it in its current form, because there's so many people who wanna use it, it's it's kind of like it's kind of existing at a different level of the stack. Like if you look at the like money stack, there's kind of like, well, there is the US dollar. And then on top of that, there's the Federal Reserve. And on top of that, there's the And central banking then there's your account at the bank.

再往上才是信用卡。比特币其实不适合做信用卡，但它可以是个不错的银行账户，或者更深一层——就像中央银行间运作的清算系统。我认为当前比特币区块链更适合低频次大额安全价值转移，而需要构建的其实是比特币的'信用卡'层，这点在社区内会有很多争论。

And then there's credit cards and Credit cards, yeah. And like, it's actually not a great credit card, but it is a pretty good either bank account or like one level deeper where it's like the rails that like the central banks all work on together. And I think like what we're seeing is that, and this is where I think there's going be a lot of debate within the community. And I've only dipped my toe in to really understand this, but it's very clear that like the blockchain, the Bitcoin blockchain as it exists today is going to be for like moving large amounts of secure value around infrequently. And what needs to be built is still sort of like Bitcoin's credit card.

完全正确。很有趣，这几周研究时我也在想同样的事。虽然我们开场时提到比特币最初目标是成为互联网原生货币、修复支付轨道等，但现实是——比特币更像是银行体系。

Exactly. It's so funny. I was thinking the exact same thing over the past couple of weeks researching, which even though with how we started the episode, like you said, the the original goal was, like, make native money for the Internet and fix payment rails and whatnot. Like, yep. This this is not the realization to me was, like, yeah, Bitcoin is like the bank.

它就像中央银行加上商业银行的复合体。它不适合做信用卡也没关系，其他互联网原生系统可以充当信用卡层。基于以太坊等DeFi项目就能覆盖这方面——不过这个我们改天在《Acquired》节目里再详谈。支付层与账户层分离完全可行，没必要追求大一统解决方案。

It's like the central bank plus like your bank. It's not gonna be good as credit card and that's okay because other Internet native systems can be the credit card on top of it. Stuff based on, you know, DeFi projects based on ether and the like, well, they will cover all this on another time on acquired. But, like, that's okay if the the credit card, like, the rapid transaction layer in Internet native crypto currencies is different than the bank account layer. Like one, you don't need one ring to roll them all here.

说得太对了。

Yep. That's a great point.

只要你能自由进出，就像，你知道的，我缴税时是从银行账户扣款。但在商店购物时，我希望有朝一日能再去餐厅用餐，或者通过DoorDash点餐时就用信用卡支付。这完全没问题。我会参与基于以太坊的DeFi项目进行快速交易，并根据需要从比特币钱包中存取资金。

As long as you can port in and out, just like, you know, when I pay my taxes, I pay them out of my bank account. But when I buy something at the store I go hopefully someday again out to eat at a restaurant or I order on DoorDash I pay with a credit card. That's totally fine. I'll do stuff with an Ethereum based DeFi project for rapid transactions and I'll move money in and out of that as needed from a Bitcoin wallet.

随着我们录制这些节目，我越来越常思考一件事，就是尝试将更多'为何是现在'的因素纳入我们的行动框架。比如，为什么这件事会在此时发生？关于比特币，我想探讨尼克·萨博提出的观点——他和纳瓦尔曾在蒂姆·费里斯的播客中讨论过（我们会在资料来源里附上链接），这个想法一直萦绕在我脑海中。

One thing that I've been increasingly thinking about as we've done these episodes, is is trying to factor in more of my why now to our playbook. Like, why did this happen when it is happening? And, for Bitcoin, I wanna talk about this idea that Nick Zabo brought up. He and Naval were on an episode of the Tim Ferriss podcast that, we'll include in the sources here. And, I haven't been able to shake this idea from my head.

过去几十年来我们一直痴迷于提升计算效率。坦白说这是必要的，因为我们总能找到需要更多算力的理由。应用场景的发展速度总是远超硬件能力。而比特币是我们首次故意创造并实现了一个极度低效的计算系统——想想看，它需要大量计算机重复执行相同缓慢的操作来互相验证，让区块链网络在全球范围内周而复始地传播。这就像多台计算机通过'工作量投票'达成共识，这种模式带来的环境影响我们稍后会讨论。

So we've been obsessed with making computing more efficient over the last several decades. And frankly, we've needed to because, we could clearly come up with reasons why we needed more compute than we had. The use cases definitely outpaced what the hardware was capable of. And Bitcoin is one of the first times that we deliberately want to and have done something that is computationally extremely inefficient. And when you think about it, Bitcoin requires tons of computers to do the same slow actions to check each other's work, to propagate this blockchain all over the globe over and over and over again by like, it's the many computers doing the same work because they're sort of voting by doing the work, which will have environmental consequences that we're gonna talk about, just before grading.

从计算资源角度看这确实昂贵，但如果真能为人类解锁新价值，你可以把它看作是利用现有海量算力实现人类根本性突破的巧妙方式。试着用这个视角思考很有趣：还有哪些曾被认为不可能的系统级目标，可以通过这种极度低效的超大规模计算来实现？就像纳瓦尔说的——我们大脑的算力没有进化，但人造计算机突飞猛进。那么我们能否把人类几千年来无法解决的问题，交给计算机以非高效但系统创新的方式完成？这想法可能有点天马行空，但我觉得...

So it's it's expensive from a computing resources perspective, but if it really does unlock new value for humanity, you can think of it as like a clever way to take advantage of the orders of magnitude more compute power that we have now to do something that is potentially a fundamental breakthrough for humanity. And it's interesting to try and apply this lens and think, well, what else could you accomplish that was previously thought to be impossible from a system perspective by leveraging this incredible scale of computing in a very inefficient way? Where we're basically like, I think the way that Naval put it was like, our our brains haven't gotten or haven't become any better computers, but we've developed way better computers. So how can we like take things that our brain currently, you know, or hasn't been able to do for all these millennia and figure out a different way for the computers to take on the work, not in a super efficient way, but in a system wide new use case way. So like, it's a little out there, but I Well, think that's

这很像以太坊的理念。等我们将来讲以太坊时再详谈。

a lot of like Ethereum. We'll talk about that when we do Ethereum someday.

这个话题先记下来。

Put the pin in that.

必须先把这个问题记下来。

Put the pin in that for sure.

好的，大卫，我还有一个问题，但你先说。

All right, David, I have one more, but you go first.

好的，太棒了。我有两个重要的策略主题想强调。第一，我不想含糊其辞而是要具体说明。我认为这个故事完美诠释了当你追求网络效应时——那种基于网络经济的商业模式，比如Facebook、大多数社交网络，还有Airbnb这种双边网络效应。初期最重要的是吸引节点和用户使用网络启动，具体做什么反而不那么重要，关键是让人们加入，让价值按照梅特卡夫定律增长。随着规模扩大，更多用户群体和使用场景会自然加入，整个网络就会不断进化。

Okay, cool. I had one big, well, had two playbook themes that I wanna highlight. One, I wanna be not careful here but specific. I think this whole story really illustrates for me when you are pursuing a network effect, a network economy based power business, you know, like this is, like Facebook is, like most social networks and the like Airbnb, two sided network effect. In the beginning what matters is getting nodes and usage on the network to start and so it matters less what they are doing and more just that people come on board and that your value grows according to Metcalfe's law and then as it grows more sets of users and use cases will come on board and it will evolve.

所以比特币的情况也是如此，这就是为什么我说要具体而非谨慎——我绝不是要替丝绸之路事件辩护，不是说那件事没问题或应该发生。但从网络价值构建的角度看，那个事件确实促使交易开始发生，节点开始为用户和矿工加入网络，丝绸之路充当了启动的初始用例。之后就像连锁反应，发展到今天完全不同于丝绸之路的局面。但对底层网络和协议来说，这些其实无关紧要。

And so, like, in Bitcoin's case, this is why I said I wanna be not careful but specific, I am not in any way condoning what happened with Silk Road or that that's okay or that that should happen or anything. But just from the perspective of value building of the network, the fact that it happened, like transactions needed to start happening, nodes needed to come on the network for users and for miners and Silk Road provided that as the bootstrap, the the first use case. And then there were, you know, more after that and one thing led to another and now here we are. Here we are is so radically different than what Silk Road was, you know? But for the underlying network and the protocol, it doesn't really matter.

真正重要的是提升用户增长速度和交易量。看看Facebook和Airbnb的发展历程，本质上是同样的故事。早期Facebook是什么？就是大学生在校园网上浏览新生的照片找对象，对吧？

What matters is increasing your velocity and growth of users and transactions. And so then when I look at Facebook, when I look at Airbnb, it's actually the same story. Like what was Facebook in the early days as we've alluded to? It was like undergraduates at colleges looking for attractive photos of, you know, other incoming undergraduates at their colleges. Right?

这和今天的Instagram、WhatsApp简直天壤之别。但没关系，Airbnb也是同理。早期的Airbnb是什么样？

Like that is so different from Instagram and WhatsApp today. Right. But that's okay. That's, similarly with Airbnb. Like, what was Airbnb in the early days?

就是人们在彼此公寓里睡充气床垫。现在呢？已经完全不一样了。但核心在于网络的扩张。

It was like people sleeping on air mattresses in each other's apartments. Yeah. What is it today? It's something wholly different. But the point is growing the network.

有趣的是，一方面我完全同意你的观点，但另一方面我在想——这不是建议只是观察——就像我们很多策略主题说的：如果你要创业，大卫，跑来跟我说'我最终要做成某件事，但前期先搞一堆乱七八糟的东西，人们却会疯狂使用'

It's funny like on the one hand, yes, you are totally right. On the other hand, I'm like sitting here thinking, and this is not really advice. It's just an observation. I think like many of our playbook themes, if you were starting a startup, David, and you came to me and said, I'm gonna eventually do this thing. And before that, I'm just gonna do a bunch of random crap, but people are totally gonna use it a lot.

最终，一旦他们都在使用它，我就会让他们做另一件事。我会说，不。那种情况极不可能发生。所以这就像是

And eventually, once they're all using it, then I'm gonna make them do this other thing. I'm gonna be like, no. Like, that's extremely unlikely. So it's like

那么，你认为这里是否有某种适用性，比如

Well, do think there's some applicability here of like

是的，完全正确。这并不完全是风马牛不相及的事。

Yeah, totally. It's not totally apples and oranges.

你可以逐步推进。我记得本·汤普森曾写过一篇关于Snap和阶梯式发展的旧文。就像你从消失的短信功能逐步扩展到更广泛的社交网络。因此我认为在这方面可以非常有策略性。这对投资者也很重要——当你看到像网络效应这样的情况时，很容易因为丝绸之路事件就否定比特币。

You stair step up. I think Ben Thompson had an old article about this with Snap and laddering. Like you ladder up from like, oh, disappearing text messages to like a broader social network. And so I do think you can be very strategic about this. I think it also matters for investors who when you see something like this that's a network effect, like, it's so easy to write off Bitcoin because of Silk Road.

但是，如果你退一步想想，等一下，有没有可能这只是这个网络上的第一批应用？有没有可能其他部门里睡充气床垫的现象只是这个网络的初始用例，而这些会吸引下一批用户？

But, like, if you step back for a minute and you're like, wait a minute, is there a chance that this is just the first set of applications on this network? Is there a chance that people sleeping on air mattresses in these other departments is just the first set of use cases on this network and that that'll bring in and attract the next set?

是的，这个观点非常引人深思。

Yeah, Fascinating point.

然后我想强调的第二个主题虽然规模较小，也因ICO事件有些失色，但我认为这是加密货币和新加密项目的创新之处：如果你能通过系统内部的价值来奖励和激励系统的使用，比如挖矿机制中，挖矿奖励就是比特币。比特币就是通过挖矿产生的工作量证明。这非常非常强大。现在，人们有内在动力来使用你的网络。

And then the second theme I wanted to highlight which is smaller and also sort of tarnished just because of the ICO thing, but is I think brilliant and new about crypto and new crypto projects is if you can reward and incentivize usage of your system by value within the system itself, like, with the mining setup of, like, the rewards for mining are Bitcoin. Bitcoin is the work done by mining. That's super, super powerful. Like, now there's an incentive in and of itself for people to come in and use your network.

好的，听众朋友们。现在正是感谢我们Acquired新合作伙伴Sentry的好时机。拼写是S-E-N-T-R-Y，就像站岗的哨兵。没错。

Alright, listeners. This is a great time to thank a new partner of ours here at Acquired, Sentry. That's s e n t r y, like someone standing guard. Yes.

Sentry帮助开发者调试错误和延迟问题，几乎涵盖所有软件问题，并在用户发怒前修复它们。正如其官网所言，被超过400万软件开发者认为'相当不错'。

Sentry helps developers debug errors and latency issues, pretty much any software problem, and fix them before users get mad. As their homepage puts it, it's considered, quote unquote, not bad by over 4,000,000 software developers.

今天我们讨论Sentry如何与Acquired生态中的另一家公司Anthropic合作。Anthropic曾使用过时的基础设施监控方案，但在其庞大的规模和复杂度下，他们转而采用Sentry来更快发现和解决问题。

So today we're talking about the way that Sentry works with another company in the acquired universe, Anthropic. Anthropic used to have some older infrastructure monitoring that was in place, but at their massive scale and complexity, they instead adopted Sentry to help them find and fix issues faster.

确实。在AI领域崩溃可能造成巨大影响。当你运行像模型训练这样的大型计算任务时，一个节点故障可能波及数百甚至数千台服务器。Sentry帮助他们检测故障硬件，从而在引发连锁问题前快速淘汰。Sentry让他们能在数小时而非数天内解决重大问题，尽快恢复训练任务。

Yep. Crashes can be a massive problem in AI. If you're running a huge compute job like training a model and one node fails, it can affect hundreds or thousands of servers. Sentry helped them detect bad hardware so they could quickly reject it before causing a cascading problem. Sentry enabled them to debug massive issues in hours instead of days so they could get back to their training runs.

如今Anthropic依赖Sentry实时追踪异常、分配错误并分析故障，覆盖其研究团队使用的所有主要语言，包括Python、Rust和C++。据Anthropic团队表示：'Sentry为开发者提供了调试问题所需全部信息的统一平台'。

And today, Anthropic relies on Sentry to track exceptions, assign errors, and analyze failures in real time across all the primary languages used by Anthropic's research teams, including Python, Rust, and c plus plus According to the Anthropic team, Sentry gives our developers one place where they have all the information they need to debug an issue.

Sentry还有个有趣的更新：本月起推出了名为SEER的AI调试器。这个AI代理能利用Sentry的问题上下文和代码库，不仅能猜测问题根源，还能针对具体应用提供可直接合并的修复方案。

And one other fun update in the world of Sentry is that as of this month, Sentry now has an AI debugger called SEER. SEER is an AI agent that taps into all the issue context from Sentry and your code base to not just guess, but root cause gnarly issues and propose merge ready fixes specific to your application.

我们非常兴奋能与Sentry合作。他们拥有令人惊叹的客户名单，不仅包括Anthropic，还有Cursor、Vercel、Linear等。如果你想像全球13万多家组织那样快速修复故障代码——从独立开发者到世界顶级企业——可以访问sentry.io/acquired了解更多。Sentry为所有Acquired听众提供两个月免费试用，只需告诉他们是本和大卫推荐即可。

We are pumped to be working with Sentry. They've got an incredible customer list, including not only Anthropic, but Cursor, Vercel, Linear, and more. If you wanna fix broken code like the over 130,000 organizations using Sentry from indie hobbyists to some of the biggest companies in the world to find and fix broken code fast. You can check out sentry.i0/acquired to learn more, and they are offering two free months to all Acquired listeners. That's Sentry, s e n t r y, dot I o slash Acquired, and just tell them that Ben and David sent you.

好的。大卫，如果有一期节目我们需要讨论价值创造与价值捕获的区别，那就是这一期了。通常这部分会分成两节。我打算忽略‘他们是否捕获了足够的创造价值’这个问题，因为我认为应该留给听众根据本期讨论内容自行思考。

Alright. Well, David, if there ever was an episode that we need to discuss the difference between value creation and value capture, it is this one. This is normally a two part section. I'm going to ignore the one about do they capture enough of the value that they create? Because I think we'll leave that to sort of listeners to ponder on based on everything we've already talked about in this episode.

我非常想探讨的是：比特币为世界创造的价值（不仅限于股东或持币者）与其存在可能造成的价值破坏之间的对比。当然，我们已经讨论过比特币的各种非法用途，这部分也留给听众进一步思考。但我想重点谈谈环境影响的程度——因为我问过一些朋友‘想了解比特币吗？’

I absolutely want to talk about the comparison between how does the value created for the world, not just shareholders or potentially coin holders, compare to any value destruction that they have created by existing. And of course, we've already talked about all the sort of illicit uses of Bitcoin. Again, I'll leave that to further ponderance by the listeners. But I want to talk about the scale of the environmental impact. Because I surveyed some friends like, do want to know about Bitcoin?

有位朋友发短信问我：‘它对环境有害吗？’这是个好问题。答案其实是‘看和什么相比？’因为毫无疑问它确实消耗算力。

And one friend texted me and said, well, is it bad for the environment or no? And it's a good question. The answer is kind of like, well, relative to what? Because sure, does it use computing power? Absolutely.

具体消耗多少？其他事物又消耗多少？这里有个估算：2019年麻省理工学院通过专项研究指出，比特币挖矿约占全球电力消耗的0.2%，其二氧化碳排放量相当于堪萨斯城全年的排放量——差不多是整座城市的水平。另有估算认为实际接近0.4%，几乎达到全球能源产量的0.5%。所以对了解...

Like how much and what do other things use? So here's at least some estimation of an answer. In 2019 MIT tried to answer this question by commissioning a study, and they basically said that Bitcoin mining specifically accounts for about two tenths of a percent, 0.2% of global electricity consumption, And it produces about as much CO2 into our atmosphere as Kansas City does, as just like a ballpark, so like a whole city per year. And some estimates actually put it even closer to 0.4%, so almost half a percent of the, of the world's energy production. So on an absolute basis for anybody who actually knows

这能耗可真不小。

That's a lot of energy.

确实。了解气候变化的人会知道：这意味着比特币每年向大气排放2300万吨二氧化碳。如果比特币是个国家，其能源消耗产生的温室气体污染量约在约旦和斯里兰卡之间。若加上其他加密货币（主要是以太坊），这个数字还会翻倍——由此可以估算能源消耗的规模。所以答案是：非常巨大。

Totally. Who knows their climate? This means 23 megatons of CO2, are are put out into the atmosphere per year because of Bitcoin, which that another comparison is between if Bitcoin were a country using energy, it would be right between Jordan and Sri Lanka in terms of their greenhouse gas pollution. If you include the other cryptocurrencies, mostly Ethereum, that actually doubles, help you estimate how much energy is being used. So I think the answer is a lot.

还有其他研究表明，矿场主要使用可再生能源。所以不一定是消耗煤炭或石油...

I think there there's a, there was other studies that have been done that shows that mostly their mining facilities are using renewable energy. So it's not like it's necessarily consuming coal Right. Or oil

就像华盛顿的中央盆地。

like the Central Basin in Washington.

这一点不会改变。我是说

That doesn't change. I mean

这仍然意味着大量能源。没错，非常多。

It's still like that's a lot of energy. Right. A lot.

能源是可替代的，虽不及货币那样高度可替代，但其可替代性如同货币一般。如果这些数据中心正在使用可再生能源，那么其他地区可能就会转向煤炭或石油。因此，这确实对我们的温室气体排放产生了影响，而在颂扬这一体系时，必须讨论它是否值得。听众们，你们可以自行判断这个新货币体系带来的所有效用，是否值得我们可能在十年或二十年内将全球气温推高1到2摄氏度？我不知道。

Energy is fungible, not as fungible as money, but as fun of fungible like money is. So if like these data centers are using that renewable energy, then it means that other places are likely to look toward coal or to oil. And so yes, it's making an impact in our greenhouse emissions and, that glorifying this system should not come without the discussion of is it worth it? And I think listeners, you make the call of whether you think that all this utility that that this new monetary system has brought, is it worth it if we, you know, race toward raising the global temperature by, you know, one or two degrees Celsius over the next ten or twenty years? I don't know.

而且...我认为尚无定论。我不确定我们对此能采取多少措施。毕竟这是去中心化的体系。那么还能

And and and I think the the jury's out. I'm not sure there's really much we can do about it. Again, it's a decentralized thing. So what are

怎么办呢？告诉人们...另外还有个问题，我确实没做过相关研究，不知道你是否了解传统金融体系会产生多少能源消耗和排放？肯定也很多，我打赌比这多得多。

you gonna do? Tell people. Well, there's also a question I certainly haven't done the work to know, I don't know if you have of how much energy does and emissions does the traditional finance system produce? For sure, it's also a lot. I bet it's a lot more.

是的。这里有个有趣的数据：现在单笔比特币交易（记得我们讨论过这些交易真正适合的是大型安全交易，而非信用卡交易）消耗的能源超过10万笔Visa交易。

Yeah. So here's an interesting stat on that. A single Bitcoin transaction now remember we talked about these these are really ideal for, like, big secure transactions, not credit card transactions. But in some way, there's a lot of smaller transactions that are being used for today. A single Bitcoin transaction consumes more energy than 100,000 Visa transactions.

有意思。

Interesting.

我是说，想想所有那些计算机必须去验证工作量证明，然后在区块链的下一层级堆叠并传播出去。这确实有道理。从能源消耗的角度来看，中心化系统效率要高得多。

I mean, you think about all the computers that then have to go and verify that proof of work and stack it at the next level on the blockchain and propagate it out. It makes sense. A centralized system is way more efficient from an energy consumption perspective.

是的，这个观点很好。另外我觉得这个问题的另一个维度不在于我们是否有能力或选择讨论某一方，而是其政治层面的影响。货币和政府绑定在一起已有四五百年的历史，这背后很可能有其原因。而现在要将它们分离，这会产生什么样的后果呢？

Yeah, that's a good point. Then there's also like, I think the other dimension to this question is not that we're gonna be capable of or choose to talk about a certain side here, but it's just the political side of this. Like, this is there's probably a reason why currencies and governments have been tied together for like four or five hundred years. This is separating that out. Like what's what's what are the consequences of that gonna be?

影响会很大。

They're large.

这是对政府为确保社会稳定所提供服务中关键组成部分的解构。问题是，如果政府不再拥有法币控制权，那些你认为当前稳定的社会还能保持同样的稳定吗？

It's an unbundling of one of the major components of the services that a government provides in order to ensure a stable society. And like, will societies that you currently think are stable stay as stable if they don't also have control over being the, you know, if they don't own the fiat currency?

没错，完全同意。这确实是个问题。再比如塞浦路斯人和塞浦路斯居民的情况。如果那些人持有的是比特币而非银行存款，资产就不会被国有化。或者如果你生活在某些行为被非法化的国家（无论这种非法化是否合理），现在可以通过比特币进行交易，而这是其他方式无法实现的。当然，比特币也有很多缺点。

Yep, totally. So that's a question. Then there's stuff like the Cypriots and residents of Cyprus. Like if those people had owned Bitcoin instead of had their deposits in a bank wouldn't have been able to be nationalized or if you live in a country where certain things are illegal that may or may not be right to be illegal you can now have a vehicle to transact with them via Bitcoin that you couldn't otherwise. But yeah, there are also a lot of downsides too.

真是些棘手的问题啊。

So thorny, thorny questions.

我会的

I will

我想说的是，关键点就在这里。事情已经明朗化了。这些都是哲学问题。真正的问题将是，未来几年历史将如何展开？

I think say like the point though is right there. Like the cat is out of the bag here. These are philosophical questions. The real questions are gonna be just like what, how will history play out in the coming years?

是的。这种与政府脱钩的现象很有趣，因为对普通人来说，生活在一个稳定的社会远比不稳定的社会要好得多。政府在我们的生活中提供了巨大价值，确保你至少知道自己所处的体系。这样你通常不用担心安全问题，或者有人以某种方式欺骗你，它提供了合理的护栏，让你能进行更高层次的生活活动。而另一方面，稳定也意味着千篇一律。

Yeah. And this decoupling from government is interesting because for the average person, it is way, way, way, way better to live in a stable society versus an unstable society. Like government provides an enormous amount of value in our lives ensuring you at least know what system you're operating within. So you generally don't have concerns about safety or about someone screwing you over in one way or another, or, you know, just provides like reasonable guardrails so that you can do higher level functions in life. And like, if you wanted, the flip side of that is with stability comes sameness.

所以，如果你是一个被政府压迫的群体成员，可能这种情况在你的国家已经持续了几百年，那么你将继续受到系统性压迫。如果你生活在一个更具活力的国家会更好，在那里你可以做更多事情来打破体制、崛起并获得权力。但我认为这是一枚硬币的两面。如果你看到政府对社会核心组成部分的控制越来越少，首先是货币，你既会看到不稳定，这对受益于稳定的人来说更糟；但同时，你也会看到被压迫者获得解放的更大机会。

So if you're part of a group that's been oppressed by a government, and maybe that's been the case for hundreds of years in your country, then like, you're gonna keep being oppressed systemically. And it would be better if you lived in a more dynamic nation where you could do more things to break the system and rise up and get power. But I think these are sort of two sides of the same coin. And if you see government owning less and less of the sort of core components of a society, the first of them being money, you will both see the destabilization, which is worse for the person who benefits from the stability. But also you will see greater opportunity for those who are oppressed to be unoppressed.

最后一点

One last

实际上还有一点值得单独提出来。我们稍后会在评分环节讨论这个。如果你要从风险投资的角度来分类比特币，这可能是史上最佳的风险投资。300万倍的回报，简直无与伦比。

thing that actually is worth calling out here on a separate topic. This is we're gonna talk about this in Grading in a minute. This is probably the best if you were to categorize Bitcoin, look at it through the lens of like an acquired lens of like a venture investment. This is probably the best venture investment of all time. Like a 3,000,000 x, like what there's nothing that's even close.

这简直是毫无疑问的。历史上其他类似的投资可能都仅限于机构领域。你可以创办一家公司。

Like this is just just, like, hands down. Okay? Every other investment like that probably in history has just solely been the realm of institutions. Right? Like, you could found a company.

你可能是马克·扎克伯格，也可能是早期投资轮次的Excel和Founders Fund。作为机构，你我确实无法做到这一点。比特币啊。

You could be Mark Zuckerberg, or you could be Excel and Founders Fund that invested in the early rounds. And as an institution, like, you and I couldn't do that. Bitcoin Yeah.

完全同意。任何人

Totally. Anybody

都能参与其中。没错。事实上，机构直到现在还被排除在外，因为规模不够大，他们无法参与。

can participate in this. Yeah. And in fact, the institutions have been locked out until now because the scale wasn't big enough for them to participate.

是的。换个说法，不对称的上行机会通常只对富人开放。比如风险投资家、投资风投基金的合格投资者、能早期押中下一个亚马逊的人。很少有上市公司还能保留这种上涨空间——当然亚马逊是个例外。

Yeah. Put another way, asymmetric upside opportunities are typically only available to frankly wealthy people. Like venture capitalists, those who invest in venture capital funds, accredited investors, people who are able to get in early on these companies that could be the next Amazon. And very rarely is there a public company that has that kind of upside left in it. Of course, Amazon is the example where there actually was that much upside left in it.

你知道，人们现在觉得特斯拉也有这种潜力。但我想你说的重点是：天啊快看，这是面向普通消费者的零售投资，任何规模都能参与，而且

You know, people are perceiving that to be the case with Tesla. So, but I think the point you're making is that like, oh my gosh, look at this. This was a retail investment available to consumers at any scale and

他们渴望

they wanted

这种不对称的上行机会。对。我说的不对称上行是指——当然你投资股票时涨10倍就很惊人，但几乎不可能像红杉投资爱彼迎那样获得1000倍回报。具体数字我记不清，但大概是这个量级。

to this type of asymmetric upside. Yep. And when I say asymmetric upside, mean like, sure, you're gonna invest in a stock and oh my god, if that stock 10x's, would be amazing. But almost never are you gonna buy a stock and it's gonna 1000x the way that Sequoia did with Airbnb. And I don't know, have the number off the top my head, but you know, in that sort of order of magnitude.

是的。

Yep.

所以我觉得这挺有意思的。

So I think that's like interesting.

确实。对于在2013年前就参与的人来说，比特币极具创造价值。没错。好了，评分问题。

For sure. Value creative for those who did so in the pre 2013 era. Yeah. All right, grading.

对。

Right.

大卫，我们到底该怎么给这个打分？

David, how on earth are we gonna grade this one?

天啊。好吧，除非你不同意本，我认为我们已经解决了第一个问题——如何评价对比特币的投资？这是迄今为止

Oh boy. Okay, well I think we already Unless you disagree Ben, I think we knocked out number one which is like how would you grade an investment in Bitcoin? This is It's by far

人类历史上最伟大的投资机会。

the greatest investment opportunity of all time in humanity.

过去十年确实如此。好吧，这很简单。这并不那么有趣。根据白皮书中提出的初衷，即成为互联网原生货币和交易媒介，你会如何评价比特币的表现？我认为相对于最初的目标，它的成绩实际上相当糟糕。

Over the past ten years for sure. Okay, that's easy. That's not that interesting. There's how would you grade Bitcoin in its sort of original purpose as laid out in the white paper of becoming a native internet currency medium for transaction for the internet. I think the grade is actually pretty poor here relative to the initial intentions.

话虽如此，如果用二十年的视角来看，假设我们现在是2028年，距离白皮书最初撰写已过去二十年，如果比特币能解决其他层级的问题，弄清楚它们如何互动，以及如何以低成本实现更高频次、更低价值的交易，那么它可能表现得非常好。也许最终结果会很棒。但到目前为止，并非如此。在这方面它表现得很差。

Now that said, could prove with the twenty year lens, let's say we're sitting here in what would that be 2028 from the white papers initial sort of initial beginning of the authoring, that it actually works really well if they can figure out this other layers of Bitcoin and how they sort of interact and how you can do much more higher velocity, lower value transactions in a cheap way. Like, it it may be the case that it ends up great. But, like, so far, no. It's been pretty poor for that.

至于比特币本身，我认为很可能不会。如果没有比特币，就不会有以太坊。而以太坊及其衍生品目前在我看来最有可能构建那一层。所以比特币或许起到了推动作用，但比特币本身不会，也永远不可能成为那样的存在。

And Bitcoin itself. Now I think very likely no if there's no Bitcoin there, you know, there wouldn't have been any Ethereum. And Ethereum and its derivatives probably in my view right now stand the best chance of, like, building that layer. So maybe it's responsible but like Bitcoin itself, no and probably never gonna be that. I

你可以在overstock.com上查看，但差不多就是这样了。

can check out on overstock.com but that's a like it's kind of about it.

是的，有趣的是Stripe曾一度支持比特币，但当发现它速度太慢、操作不便且高频交易成本过高时，他们在2018年停止了对它的支持。

Yeah, interestingly so Stripe supported Bitcoin for a while but then once it became clear that it was too slow and too unwieldy and transaction costs were too high for high velocity transactions they dropped it, in 2018. They stopped supporting it.

有意思。这很明确。就最初目的而言，它目前只能得D或F，但它确实刺激了该领域的创新。

Interesting. Well, that's definitive. Like it's a D or an F for its initial purpose so far it stimulate innovation in that area.

好的。接下来，哦，我本来想说我们接下来讨论价值存储功能。这可能与作为投资工具有关。

Okay. Next, oh, was gonna say we do store a value next. That's probably related to being an investment.

我是说，这是对一种高度波动的价值储存手段的绝佳投资。

I mean, it's been an amazing investment in a highly volatile store of value.

价值储存，对吧？所以它不像这里的任何东西，投资价值取决于你的时间框架。如果你有多年的时间跨度，那太棒了。有史以来最好的投资。但如果你需要它像美元那样运作，比如'嘿，我下个季度需要缴税'。

Store of value, right? So it's not a, it just like anything here, like investing in value depends on your timeframe. Like if you have a multi year timeframe, amazing. Best investment of all time. If you need this to function as something like a US dollar where like, hey, I need to pay my taxes next quarter.

我想确保我把这笔钱存好，这样我就知道下个季度有钱缴税。这样就不太合适。

I wanna make sure that I put this money away so that like I know I'm gonna have that money to pay my taxes next quarter. Not good.

是啊，是啊。这很有趣。从价值储存的角度来看，它是一个很好的对冲工具。但仍有概率在短期内损失60%、70%甚至80%的价值。

Yeah. Yeah. It's interesting. Like, to me from a store of value perspective, you it's a great hedge. Like, there still is the probability that it loses 80 there still is the a reasonable possibility that it loses sixty, seventy, 80% of its value in a short period of time.

所以，我会打电话告诉父母应该把退休金投进去吗？不会。但应该把它纳入投资组合吗？也许吧。黄金可能仍然是最好的参照物。

So like, am I calling my parents and telling them you should put your retirement in there? Not. Should you be building it into your portfolio? Maybe. Like, again, gold continues to probably be the best comp.

它就像带有巨大上涨潜力的黄金，当然也有下跌风险。

It's like gold with a bunch of upside feels like Well, a downside.

不过黄金的波动性要低得多。如果你把钱投入黄金，我下个季度大概率还能通过兑换来缴税。

Way higher volatility there though. If you put money into gold, I'm probably gonna be able to pay my taxes next quarter by converting that back out.

这个观点很中肯。是的，这是超高波动性的黄金。而且...再说一次，我不确定它是否...我不确定这里是否存在超额收益。它的上涨空间和下跌风险几乎一样大。

That's a fair point. Yeah, it's super high volatility gold. And and and again has don't know that it's like, I don't know if there's alpha there. Like there's just as much upside as there is downside.

没错，没错。但我确实认为，从长期来看，极有可能存在巨大的上涨空间，特别是——正如我们即将用最后一个评估视角来分析的那样——尤其是与现金相比。在零利率环境下叠加通胀环境，长期持有现金实际上是在亏钱。

Yep. Yep. But I do think, you know, over the long arc, there's a lot of upside very likely and especially and as we'll get into our last grading lens here especially compared to cash which and zero interest rate in a zero interest rate environment plus an inflationary environment where you are losing money in the long term

更不用说货币供应量增加导致的稀释效应了。

Not to mention dilutive from the money supply increasing this You

除非发生极其剧烈的变化，否则在可预见的未来，长期持有现金必然会让你丧失购买力。相比之下，比特币在这方面表现极为出色。

will unless something drastically drastically changes, you will assuredly lose purchasing power by keeping money in cash over any extended period, for the foreseeable future. Bitcoin knocks it out of the park relative to that.

确实。这个观点很棒。相对于现金确实存在高波动性，但...没错。这真是个绝佳的观点，就像那句老话说的'留着现金等抄底'，但实际上现金贬值的速度比以往任何时候都快。虽然我们没到恶性通胀的程度，但相比正常时期，现在不承担重大风险就很难让现金有效增值。

Yeah. That's a great point. High volatility relative to that that cash, but yeah. Yeah, it's it's a really good point that like the the, you know, old aphorism of like, I'm gonna keep cash around in case, you know, there's a recession and I have the opportunity to buy up like that cash is just losing value faster than it ever has. Like we're not in a hyperinflationary environment, but like relative to where we normally are, it's not you certainly can't put it to work in a great way without taking meaningful risk.

我要说明的是，我们没经历过八十年代美国利率高达两位数的时代——那种通胀水平简直疯狂。每年损失15%的购买力，太可怕了。虽然缺乏这种切身经历，但理性思考的话：对于长期闲置资金，我找不到任何理由要持有现金。这根本就是个必输的选择。

Now I will say, we don't have the lived context of the eighties in America where interest rates were in the teens and like that talk about inflation, that's insane. You're losing 15% purchasing power every year. That's crazy. So we don't have that context of lived experience but it's just like there's just no rational way that I can think of to look at why in like long term holdings that I don't need this cash right now and I can afford to be long term focused with it, I should have it in cash. That just seems like there's no way to win there.

最后我想从风险投资角度分析：这个投资是否仍有巨大上涨空间？我在思考这个问题时想到：前五年我们见证了35000倍涨幅，随后五年又涨了85倍。即便未来要实现20倍涨幅，单个比特币的估值也必须超过50万美元。不过...

Well, last way I wanna sort of analyze this is through the venture investment lens of is there still enormous upside, in this investment? And I was kind of thinking about this like, so we saw a 35,000 x in the first five years, then we saw an 85 x in the five years after that. And even to get a 20 x in the future, that means a single Bitcoin would have to be valued at over half a million dollars. But

温克莱沃斯兄弟公开表示，他们认为比特币的目标价位是50万美元，这将使其市值与地上黄金持平。也就是说，如果比特币的市值达到...

Which the Winklevoss twins are on record saying that that's their essentially price target for Bitcoin is 500 k, which would be parity market cap with the above ground gold. Like if Bitcoin had the same market cap as

对，这正是我想说的。讨论比特币可能值多少钱其实有点傻，因为这完全是主观臆测。

Right. That's what I was gonna yeah. That's where I was gonna go here. It's like, it's sort of silly to like think about like, what could I imagine a Bitcoin being? Because you can't it's arbitrary.

有趣的是，如果我持有全球比特币总量中我的份额（这是可以计算的），而比特币市值达到...我在用风险投资的视角分析：这东西是否有20倍增长潜力？答案很可能是肯定的。

The interesting thing is if I owned the share that I would own of all the Bitcoin in the world, which you can calculate, and and Bitcoin's market cap was, like, this is what what I'm saying, I'm analyzing like a venture investment. Do I think this thing has a chance of sort of being a 20 x here? And the answer is probably. Like, if if like, I I probably think that. Or the answer is yes, I do think that.

因为如今它已有5000亿美元市值，而类似产品如美元的全球流通量是200亿张，价值7万亿美元。黄金市值约5万亿——这是最接近的参照物。我认为它能抢占更多黄金市场份额吗？当然可以。仅黄金市场（不算珠宝）就比比特币当前市值大十倍。

Because if it's got this half a a trillion dollar market cap today, and the market cap of of what people are doing with similar products like the US dollar is, you know, there's there's 20,000,000,000 of those, there's $70,000,000,000 worth of that globally. You know, there's 5 ish billion dollars of gold and that's its sort of closest comp. Like, do I at least think it can get steal more of the gold market? Yeah, totally. And that gold market is even without jewelry ten ten times bigger than its current market cap.

所以我认为它有20倍增长空间吗？有可能。风险投资从来不是赌'这事必然发生'，而是赌'若发生，规模是否足够大'。

So do I think it has a 20 x in it? It could. It has a possibility of that. And in a venture return, you're never underwriting to, yeah, I think this is going to happen. You're underwriting to, if it happened, would it be sufficiently large enough?

我是否愿意构建一个投资组合，确保其中一两个巨大成功的项目就能让整个组合回本？是的，我认为比特币前方仍有足够跑道。

And am I willing to put together a portfolio of those if it happens? Just make sure that all of them clear the hurdle of, if the one or two that are enormously successful are successful, will it be big enough in order to make the whole portfolio worth it? And yes, I do think this has enough running room in front of it.

好，让我们为《Acquired》节目做个总结：2011年前是比特币的科学实验阶段，2011-2013年像是种子轮投资期。那时投资比特币，就像早期投资谷歌或Facebook。

All right, I'm gonna bring it full circle for acquired here. The pre 2011 era for Bitcoin was science project phase. The twenty eleven to twenty thirteen era was like seed investment phase for Bitcoin. You invest in Bitcoin during that phase. It's like being a seed investor in Google or Facebook or whatnot.

2013至2017年间是A轮B轮融资阶段。比如，特别是后期阶段，就像Greylock以6000万美元的投后估值投资Airbnb的A轮，当时看来高得离谱。但结果他们赚得盆满钵满。

The twenty thirteen to twenty seventeen period was the series a series b stage investment. You're like, you know, especially if you go later in that spectrum, you're like Greylock coming in and doing the series a of Airbnb at a $60,000,000 post. Super high at the time. That seems crazy. Well, yeah, they made a lot of money there.

我们现在正处于比特币的增长轮阶段。

We are now in the growth round phase of Bitcoin.

哦，你不认为我们已经进入上市后阶段了？

Oh, you don't think we're in the post public?

不。你说IPO后？因为还有很大上涨空间。你现在投资的是成长期公司对吧？比如正在进行的C轮融资？

No. Post IPO? Because there's still all this upside. Like, will they there's still like you're investing in a growth stage company, right? Like you're doing a Series C in?

没错。你现在投资Stripe就是这种情况。合理的对标是——哦不，我认为还没到那步。2020年的Stripe阶段。

Yeah. You're investing in Stripe right now. Like that's actually the reasonable comp is like Oh, no. Don't think we're there yet. 2020 Stripe.

好吧，那么我来说说原因

Well, so so here's why I

我认为你们处在2017年Stripe的发展阶段。

think you're in 2017 Stripe.

我认为2020年的Stripe之所以如此，是因为比特币在我们这个小领域上市后。它仍然具有巨大的市场潜力，就像亚马逊那样，即便已成为主流并被潜在投资者广泛接受，仍拥有巨大的增长空间。而且它不是一家公司，其规模远超于此。

Here's why I think you were in twenty twenty Stripe. Because Bitcoin after it in our little playground here would go public. It still has, like, the because the TAM is so big, it's Amazon like in that way, where, like, it still has a ton a ton a ton of growth potential in front of it after it's sort of like mainstream and accepted by, you know, all the people that would be interested in buying a a, you know, robust IPO. And also, it's not a company. It's way bigger than that.

对，对，对。

Yep. Yep. Yep.

我想这大概就是我的观点所在。

I guess that's sort of where I would take

你的分析很棒。我们的看法一致，但对阶段划分有分歧。我认为它相当于2017年的Stripe，像是公司的C轮融资阶段。你描述的黄金之路虽存在执行风险，但成功后的回报巨大——我认为那就是IPO阶段。

This your is great. I think we're viewing it the same way but we're gonna disagree on what stage. I think it's Stripe in 2017 because I think this is like a series C ish in a company. The path that you laid out of the path to gold, high execution risk, whatnot, but like that's the upside like it accomplishes that great. I think that's the IPO.

这是具有更多实用价值的黄金，不难想象他们为何能实现这一目标。

It's gold with more utility so like it's not hard to imagine why they would be able to pull off.

但以亚马逊为例，我认为（我们可以对当前阶段有不同看法）黄金仍有上升空间。虽然概率可能较低，但就像亚马逊上市时只是图书销售商，如今却发展成AWS和亚马逊综合体。

But here's the Amazon, the case you I think in my mind, and we can disagree about where we are in this. There's still upside to gold. Like, it may be low likelihood, but it's like Amazon went public, it was a bookseller. Amazon today is AWS and Amazon. Right?

没错。其上升空间在于超越黄金属性，开始侵蚀储备货币地位等等。因此我认为还存在后续助推阶段。能否实现虽不确定，但这里显然还存在着两个层级的上升潜力。

Like Right. The upside is it becomes more than gold and starts to eat into reserve currency, you know, etcetera etcetera. So I think there's still another after booster stage on this. Whether it'll happen or not, I don't know. But I think you could view two tiers of upside left here.

一是实现黄金理论。二是超越黄金。

Is realize the gold thesis. Two is expand beyond gold.

因为实现黄金理论只是另一个10倍的增长。

Well because realizing the gold thesis is only another 10x.

对，差不多是15倍。

Right, it's like a 15x.

嗯，我没把用于珠宝的那部分黄金计算在内。

Well, I'm not counting the part of gold that's dedicated to jewelry.

哦，明白了。

Oh, got it.

是的。人们把黄金作为价值储存手段。虽然珠宝也是价值储存手段。只是因为它更漂亮所以价格虚高。好吧。

Yeah. People holding gold as a store of value. Although jewelry is a store of value too. It's just inflated because it's prettier. All right.

我真的很喜欢这个分析。我觉得，这是个很好的结束点。我还没看时间。我猜这会是Acquired史上最长的一期节目。所以听众们，感谢你们和我们一起踏上这段旅程。

I I really like that analysis. I think, I think that's a great place to leave it. I haven't checked the time. I have to imagine this is gonna be the longest acquired episode in history. So listeners, thank you for going on this journey with us.

你知道，大卫，说实话，回顾历史、战略拆解和技术细节，我没想到我们能探讨这么多内容。希望听众们喜欢这三部分内容。我们非常欢迎反馈，特别是如果你是一位经济学家、身处这个生态系统，或者知道我们尚未了解的行业动态。我们喜欢公开持续学习，所以请务必联系我们。

You know, David, I didn't expect, frankly us to do as much as we did looking both at the history and sort of this like strategy pull apart and some of the technical aspects. So, I hope listeners you enjoyed all three. We'd love feedback, particularly if you are, an economist or in this ecosystem, or if you know about moves that have been made in this ecosystem that we don't know about yet. I think we we like to continue learning in public. So please, please please reach out.

对于不了解的朋友们，我们已开始将每期节目的要点整理成文字版。本期也不例外。我们会在每期节目发布后通过邮件发送这些要点。如果你想获取，可以在acquired.fm上订阅。加入Acquired社区Slack（acquired.fmslack）也会自动为你订阅这些内容。

Well, folks who don't know, we have started codifying the playbook from each episode in some written bullet points. We did that for this episode as well. And we email those out after posting each episode. So if this is something you want, you can sign up to receive the playbooks at acquired.fm. And if you join the Acquired community Slack at acquired.fmslack, you will automatically be signed up for them there as well.

一如既往，如果你热爱Acquired并想更深入参与，欢迎成为我们的有限合伙人。你将获得超过50期公司建设主题的访谈和深度分析库、每月Zoom会议，以及我们新增的福利——实时收听我们录制重大活动（如紧急特别节目和与作者的书评讨论）。若你尚未成为LP，点击节目说明中的链接或访问acquired.fmlpwe，期待与你相见。如果你是首次收听且未订阅，可在你喜欢的播客平台订阅。若有朋友可能喜欢本期内容——无论是加密熊市派还是牛市派，或是你常讨论此类话题的人——请务必分享给他们。

As always, if you love Acquired and you want to be a deeper part of what we do here, you should become a limited partner. You'll get access to our library of over 50 interviews and deep dives on company building topics, monthly Zoom calls, and the new thing we've added, live access to listen in while we record big events like emergency pods and our book club discussions with authors. So if you are not already an Acquired LP, click the link in the show notes or go to acquired.fmlpwe and can't wait to see you there. If this is your first time listening to an episode and you're not subscribed, you can do that from your favorite podcast player. And if you have a friend that you think would enjoy this episode, maybe someone who's a crypto bear or crypto bull, someone you like to talk about this with, you should definitely share it with them.

欢迎在社交媒体分享。但我们更珍视你直接推荐给可能真正感兴趣的人。听众朋友们，感谢收听，我们下次见。

Feel free to share it on social media. But again, we love that one to one touch when you share it with someone that you think would really like it. With that listeners, thank you and we will see you next time.

我们下次见。

We'll see you next time.