迪士尼，Plus

我尊重你们作为创作者的身份。

I respect you all as creators.

我想向你们学习。

I want to learn from you.

让我们思考一下，比如，我们行业中有哪些既定规范可能并不正确，我们应该考虑挑战。

And let's think about, like, what are some, like, just given norms in our industry that maybe aren't right that, like, we should we should consider challenging.

所以《双峰镇》就是个很好的例子。

So Twin Peaks is a great example of that.

他推出了《纽约重案组》。

NYPD Blue, he launches.

《罗珊娜》是另一个绝佳范例。

Roseanne is another great example of that.

《罗珊娜》节目变得非常成功。

The Roseanne show becomes very successful.

后来在重启时引发了争议，就是最近的事。

There would be controversy with the reboot later, more recently.

但这一切进展得非常顺利。

But that all goes really well.

1992年，鲍勃被汤姆和丹提拔，成为ABC电视台的总裁。

And in 1992, Bob gets promoted by Tom and Dan, to become president of all of ABC.

因此体育、新闻、娱乐等部门都向鲍勃汇报工作。

So sports, news, entertainment, all reporting up to Bob.

而其他首府城市则设有各自的经理负责。

And the rest of capital cities, have their own managers for it.

正如我们所说，1994年丹·伯克退休时，汤姆表示——要知道鲍勃两年前刚当上ABC总裁。

And then, like we said, in 1994, Dan Burke retires and Tom says, Bob Bob had just recently two years before become president of ABC.

鲍勃说：'我不确定自己是否准备好来和你一起管理首府城市公司。'

Bob says, I don't know that I'm ready to come in and and run capital cities with you.

汤姆直接说：'不行。'

And and Tom says, nope.

'你没有选择权。'

You don't have a choice.

你必须过来。

You gotta come in.

你是我的首席运营官。

You're my COO.

你要和我一起管理整个首都城市公司。

You're running all of capital cities with me.

而此时的ESPN，就像我们在那期节目里讲过的，很明显这不仅会成为十亿美元级别的业务，未来更会是价值数百亿美元的业务。

And ESPN at this point in time is, you know, again, really like we covered in that episode, it's clear that this is gonna be a multi, not just billion dollar business, but tens of billions of dollars business in the future.

这时迪士尼入场了。

So enter Disney.

就在鲍勃成为首都城市公司首席运营官之后。

Right after Bob becomes COO of Capital Cities.

给我们详细讲讲。

And take us through.

这是1995年。

This is '95.

我们现在是在1995年。

We're at 1995 right now.

鲍勃成为首席运营官是在94年。

It's '94 when Bob becomes COO.

在爱达荷州著名的太阳谷会议——艾伦公司举办的太阳谷会议上。

At the Sun Valley Conference, the Allen and Company, famous Sun Valley Conference in in Idaho.

迈克尔·艾斯纳——我们将重点讨论的人物，时任迪士尼CEO，与汤姆·墨菲和沃伦·巴菲特会面，他们共同策划了迪士尼收购Capital Cities、ABC和ESPN的计划。

Michael Eisner, the who we're gonna talk a lot about, the CEO of Disney, then CEO of Disney, gets together with Tom Murphy and Warren Buffett, and they cook up a plan for Disney to acquire Capital Cities and ABC and ESPN.

这算是为后续我们讨论迪士尼+做个铺垫。

This is to preview a little bit when we talk about Disney plus and get into this.

迈克尔·艾斯纳这个动作——他是在鲍勃之前同样传奇的迪士尼CEO。

This move Michael Eisner was an equally legendary CEO of Disney before Bob.

这原本是他的巅峰之作，可惜的是艾斯纳在巅峰期后停留得过久了，我们后续会看到。

This was his capstone was unfortunately, Eisner stuck around a little bit too long after the capstone as we'll see.

他头十年的表现堪称惊艳。

His first ten years were incredible.

他最初的十年确实令人难以置信。

His first ten years were absolutely incredible.

而这次收购就是巅峰之作——最终让ABC（当然极其重要）和ESPN都成为了迪士尼的一部分。

And then this was the capstone that ended up in really, you know, ABC, of course, super super important, but ESPN becoming part of Disney.

多年来，我记得我们在节目中也讨论过这一点。

And for many years, I mean, again, I remember we talked about this on the episode.

当我刚大学毕业在纽约做媒体投资银行家时，负责迪士尼业务，人们基本上把迪士尼其他所有业务——动画、乐园、影业等等——的价值都归零看待。

When I was a media investment banker right out of college in New York, you know, covering Disney, people just, like, basically discounted everything else within Disney, the animation, the parks, the studios, everything to basically zero.

这家公司就是ESPN。

And it was just like, this company is ESPN.

它的影响力如此巨大。

It is that powerful.

它是全美利润最高、遥遥领先的有线电视网络和内容提供商。

It is the most profitable by a million miles cable network and content provider in all of America.

是啊。

Yeah.

为了让听众更清楚这一点，美国每个支付有线电视费用并收看ESPN、ESPN二台以及其他附带体育内容的用户，无论套餐价格是40.5美元还是多少，其中大约有9美元是直接支付给ESPN的。

And to to contextualize that for for listeners, every single person who is paying for cable in The United States and is getting ESPN, ESPN two, and the, you know, the rest of the stuff that comes with it, the sports stuff, is paying about $9 directly to ESPN of whatever the bundle price is, $40.50 bucks.

想想看这很疯狂，假设套餐是50美元。

It's crazy when you think about let's say it's $50.

这意味着他们可能将频道实际成本的COGS（销售成本）翻了两倍。

That's and let's say they're making a they're two x ing the COGS or their cost of goods sold of the the actual channels.

所以，比如所有那些频道的25美元中，有9美元都流向了ESPN。

So, like, nine of the $25 for all of those channels are just going to ESPN.

是啊。

Yeah.

而对比之下，Disney+每月只要6.99美元对吧？

And contrast that with $6.99 a month for Disney plus Right?

现在迪士尼直接面向消费者，每月7美元就能获得他们所有内容，而有线电视套餐中仅ESPN就能拿到9美元。

So now Disney's going direct to consumers, $7 a month for all of their content versus they're getting $9 from the cable bundle just for ESPN.

没错。

Yep.

对。

Yeah.

哇。

Wow.

好的。

Okay.

于是这笔交易达成了。

So this deal happens.

190亿美元。

$19,000,000,000.

迪士尼收购了这家公司。

Disney acquires the company.

实际上这笔交易的一个关键点，对迪士尼和迈克尔·艾斯纳来说是个棘手问题，除非鲍勃承诺在收购后至少继续运营ABC五年，否则他不会推进这笔交易。

And actually a super key part of the deal, like a a sticking point for Disney and for Michael Eisner was he was not gonna go through with the deal unless Bob committed to running ABC for at least five years after the acquisition.

他担心鲍勃会离开，这就像是一个不可谈判的条件，实际上还推迟了交易的完成，这有点令人惊讶。

He was worried about Bob leaving, and it was like it was like a nonnegotiable point and actually held up the closing of the deal, which is kind of amazing.

稍微回顾一下艾斯纳这个人，他是个相当有趣的角色。

Eisner, to rewind back to him a little bit, he's quite an interesting character.

他最初其实是在ABC开始职业生涯的，但1984年成为了迪士尼的CEO。

So he had actually started his career at ABC, but he had become CEO of Disney in 1984.

他接手时，迪士尼自1966年沃尔特·迪士尼去世后就一直走下坡路。

And he had turned around Disney from Walt Disney had died in 1966.

在艾斯纳接管前的近二十年里，迪士尼完全在挣扎求生，没有产出任何知名IP，也没有新电影问世。

And for that almost twenty years before Eisner took over, Disney was completely floundering, producing no notable IP, no new movies.

我的意思是他们确实拍了新电影，但质量都很糟糕。

I mean, they were producing new movies, but they weren't any good.

他们勉强躲过了一系列收购企图。

They narrowly survived a series of takeover attempts.

主题乐园经营困难。

The parks were struggling.

公司当时毫无远见可言。

There was no vision.

要知道，那确实是一段非常艰难的时期。

You know, it was it was a really rough period.

你想想看，迪士尼动画在早期是什么样子的。

And you think about, like, what Disney animation was in those earlier days.

那时有《白雪公主》。

It was Snow White.

有《睡美人》。

It was Sleeping Beauty.

我是说，这些都是经典永流传的作品。米老鼠被创造出来，经受住了时间的考验。

I mean, it was these, like, classic enduring I mean, you have Mickey Mouse being created, and that lasting the test of time.

不过确实，我是说...还有乐园

But yeah, mean, And I Parks

也同样极具创新性。

too, which are incredibly innovative.

是啊。

Yeah.

想想与迪士尼相关的一切，基本上都集中在五六十年代，而八十年代初对迪士尼来说几乎是一片空白，我想这和八十年代初的音乐界情况很相似。

You think about everything you associate with Disney, it's all sort of in this fifties and sixties era, and then there's, like, very little the early eighties for Disney, I guess, I think that's this, right, is is pretty akin to, like, the early eighties for music.

某种程度上，那段时期最好被遗忘。

Like, it's kind of best forgotten.

好吧。

Okay.

虽然有些不错的作品，但迪士尼那时期确实没什么好作品。

There was some good stuff, but no good stuff out of Disney.

不过迪士尼董事会当时招募了艾斯纳和他的搭档弗兰克·威尔斯（担任首席运营官）来扭转局面，他们做了几件非常重要的事。

But the Disney board had recruited Eisner and his partner really in turning around Disney, Frank Wells, who was his COO, and they, did a couple really important things.

最重要的是，他们请来杰弗里·卡森伯格担任迪士尼动画部和影业的负责人。

Most importantly, they brought in Jeffrey Katzenberg to be head of Disney Animation and head of the studio.

杰弗里彻底扭转了局面。

And Jeffrey completely turned things around.

所以你会熟悉这些电影——无论你生活在世界哪个角落：《小美人鱼》《美女与野兽》《阿拉丁》《狮子王》，这些作品一部接一部地大获成功。

So, you know, some movies that you might be familiar with, you probably are no matter where you live in the world, The Little Mermaid, Beauty and the Beast, Aladdin, The Lion King, these are all Hit after hit.

电影

Movies

是啊。

Yeah.

在迪士尼八十年代末至九十年代中期的黄金岁月里。

In these golden years of the the late eighties through the mid nineties at Disney.

艾斯纳和威尔斯为扭转迪士尼局面所做的其他举措，还包括大举进军VHS家庭录像市场，随后是DVD业务。

The other things that Eisner and Wells do to really turn around Disney are they get big time into the VHS, the home video business, VHS and then DVDs.

他们在这方面非常精明。

And they're really smart about this.

比如推出限量版。

They do like limited edition.

我记得小时候，他们还会推出限时发售的版本。

I remember this growing up, like windowed releases of limited time only.

你可以买到《白雪公主》。

You can get, you know, Snow White.

把它拉出来

Pull it

从迪士尼宝库中取出

out of the Disney Vault.

VHS录像带，从宝库里拿出来，懂吗？

VHS, pull it out of the vault, you know?

我虽未深入研究，但我认为迪士尼当时很可能是这种窗口期概念的创新者，这种后来在媒体行业盛行的模式，通过剧场发行、家庭录像发行、电视发行等多渠道，最大限度地从IP和内容中榨取利润，并围绕所有环节营造期待感。

I haven't done enough research to really know, but I I I think they they probably, and Disney at this time, probably are big innovators in this concept of windowing that became so prevalent in the media industry of really milking as much profits out of a set of IP and content as possible with you got the theatrical release, you've got the home video release, you've got the TV release, like, and building excitement around all of it.

迪士尼宝库的概念变得如此深入人心，以至于《周六夜现场》还做了个恶搞短剧，想象宝库里的角色们被困在里面喊救命。

The concept of the Disney vault became so prevalent that SNL did a parody of, like, looking inside the Disney vault, and it's all these characters, like, trapped in there being like, help.

没错。

Yes.

绝对值得一看。

It's definitely worth looking at.

天啊。

Oh, man.

正如我们之前所说，这一切的巅峰就是与Capital Cities的交易，他们将ABC和ESPN纳入了公司。

Then, like we said, the capstone of all this is the Capital Cities deal, where they bring ABC and ESPN into the company.

然而非常不幸的是，就在与Capital Cities交易前夕，弗兰克·威尔斯于1994年在一场直升机坠毁事故中丧生。

Very, very sadly though, right before the Capital Cities deal, Frank Wells is killed in a helicopter crash in 1994.

所以，你知道，如果这件事没有发生，我认为迪士尼、艾斯纳的历史，甚至可能对鲍勃和艾格的历史都会大不相同。

So, you know, had this not happened, I think history would have been really different for Disney, for Eisner, and probably for Bob and Eiger too.

这确实让一切都陷入了混乱。

And this really throws everything for a loop.

因此当Capital Cities交易发生时，艾斯纳正在寻找一位二把手作为搭档来协助管理公司，因为天啊，这可是个巨头企业。

So when the capital cities deal happens, Eisner is looking for a number two to be his partner to help run the company because, man, this is a massive company.

要知道，在这个阶段，没有一个人——即便是鲍勃·艾格——能真正独自运营这家公司。

You know, no one person can, even Bob Iger can really run this by himself or herself at this point in time.

所以艾斯纳正在物色他的副手。

And so Eisner is looking for a number two.

而当交易达成时，鲍勃变得至关重要，收购条款中有一项规定他必须留任五年继续担任ABC的负责人。

And when the deal happens, you know, Bob is so important and there's this clause in the in the acquisition that he has to stay on for five years as head of head of ABC.

要知道，包括鲍勃在内的人们开始认为，或许他最终能成为迪士尼二把手的合适人选。

You know, people start thinking, including Bob, that, you know, maybe he's a good candidate eventually for this number two role at all of Disney.

鲍勃在书中写道，汤姆·墨菲当时曾告诉他：听着，只要你策略得当，

Bob writes about in the book that Tom Murphy actually told him around this time, hey, you know, look, you play your cards right.

有朝一日你可能会成为整个迪士尼公司的CEO。

You might be CEO of this company, this whole Disney company one day.

而事实确实如此。

And indeed, that would be true.

不过通往这个位置的道路并非一帆风顺。

The path is not quite straight to get there though.

迈克尔·艾斯纳当时考虑的二号人选并不是鲍勃。

Michael Eisner was thinking about bringing on a number two, but it was not Bob.

这就像是WeWork那种情况。

So this is like a WeWork type situation.

九十年代中期的迪士尼就是当时的WeWork。

This is the WeWork of the mid nineties, Disney was.

确实如此。

It honestly was.

并非要在Acquired节目上一直贬低WeWork，但这确实曾是美国各大新闻的头条。

Not to just totally keep dunking on WeWork here on acquired, but this was all over the news and all over America.

这简直是场灾难。

What a disaster this was.

艾斯纳引进了超级经纪人迈克尔·奥维茨担任他的副手。

Eisner brings in super agent Michael Ovitz to become his number two.

显然的首席运营官人选。

A clear COO candidate.

你知道的，明确的选择。

You know, the clear choice.

你想要什么样的人来协助管理一家刚合并的大型企业？当然是运营能力极强的人。

What do you what do you want in a really operationally strong person to help you run a large recently combined business?

一个基本上从未管理过团队的人。

Someone who's basically never managed people.

是啊。

Yeah.

没管过人的也是个创始人。

Never managed people is a founder too.

迈克尔·奥维茨这个人，简直不可思议。

Like, Michael Ovitz is, like, was incredible.

他创办了创新艺人经纪公司CAA。

I mean, he started CAA, creative artist agency.

史上最伟大的经纪人。

Greatest agent of all time.

没错。

Yeah.

如果你看过《甜心先生》这部电影，就知道那是讲体育经纪人的。

And, you know, if you've seen, the movie Jerry Maguire, you know that's about sports agents.

但那个世界的原型就是迈克尔·奥维茨。

But, like, you know, that whole world is Michael Ovitz.

或者《明星伙伴》，哦，该死。

Or Entourage, the oh, shoot.

《明星伙伴》里的那个经纪人。

The agent in Entourage.

戈尔德。

Gold.

是啊。

Yeah.

你知道，那就是迈克尔·奥维茨。

You know, that's Michael Ovitz.

所以他进入迪士尼后，简直是一场灾难。

So he comes in into Disney and it is just just a disaster.

难以置信的文化冲突。

Incredible culture clash.

鲍勃现在归迈克尔·奥维茨管。

Bob is now under Michael Ovitz.

记住，鲍勃属于沃伦·巴菲特、汤姆·墨菲、丹·伯克那一派的管理学派。

Remember, Bob is like Warren Buffett, Tom Murphy, Dan Burke School of Manager.

他现在要向超级经纪人迈克尔·奥维茨汇报工作。

He's now reporting to super agent Michael Ovitz.

艾斯纳在这里真是脚踏两条船。

Eisner really has a foot in both worlds here.

他本人也是个了不起的人物，但迪士尼毕竟是迪士尼。

He's an incredible guy himself, but Disney is Disney.

这不是一家经纪公司。

It is not an agency.

当你说脚踏两个世界时，意思是艾斯纳拥有和沃尔特一样的创意天赋。

And when you say a foot in both worlds, mean, Eisner had that creative gift that that Walt had.

鲍勃谈到艾斯纳会巡视乐园，能够发现视线问题等影响魔法体验的细节。

I mean, Bob talks about how Eisner would go through parks and be able to spot issues with line of sight and things like that that are are taking away from the experience being magical.

你可以想象这也会导致微观管理，事实也确实如此。

You could imagine that that also leads to micromanagement, which was true.

另一方面，你知道，这与资本世界的核心理念相去不远——找出企业的核心，使其真正精简，运营真正稳健。

On the other hand, you know, isn't so far from the capital city's world of figure out what's core to a business, make it really lean, make it really operationally sound.

我认为艾格在这方面比艾斯纳做得更多，但奥维德显然完全没有这种概念。

You know, I think Eiger did a little bit more of that than than Eisner did, but Ovid certainly had had no notion of of that.

是的。

Yeah.

说到脚踏两条船，试着站在艾斯纳当时的立场想想——杰弗里·卡森伯格才华横溢，但更偏向迈克尔·奥维茨那种类型的天才，而非沃伦·巴菲特式的运营风格。

Well, and to the foot in both words, know, Eisner, to maybe try and put ourselves in his mindset at this time a little bit, Jeffrey Katzenberg, very much, you know, extremely, extremely talented, but more of the Michael Ovitz, you know, type of personality and creative, you know, genius than the, you know, Warren Buffett operational style.

艾斯纳的天赋在于他能识别人才，他在卡森伯格身上看到了这种天赋，这为公司带来了辉煌的繁荣期。

Eisner's gift was he recognized that talent out there, and he recognized it in Katzenberg, and it led to this great, great flourishing within the company.

你明白吗？

You know?

我想他可能希望奥维茨能为迪士尼重新注入这种活力。

And I think he probably hoped that Ovitz would be able to bring that back, bring that spirit back to Disney.

不过最终并未如愿。

It didn't work out though.

所以奥维茨只在公司待了十四个月就离职了。

So Ovitz only lasts fourteen months at the company and leaves after fourteen months.

这是在九十年代末期，他带着1.4亿美元的黄金降落伞离开。

This is in the late nineties, mid to late nineties, leaves with a $140,000,000 golden parachute.

这相当于当时的17亿美元亚当·诺伊曼式巨额补偿，给公司留下了一地鸡毛。

This is the $1,700,000,000 Adam Neumann payout of its day and leaves the company kinda in shambles behind him.

而艾斯纳的声誉也从重振这家美国标志性企业、与卡岑伯格合作推出《狮子王》《阿拉丁》等经典电影，跌落至此时迪士尼成为商界的笑柄。

And Eisner's reputation having gone from turned around this iconic American company and produced, you know, with with Katzenberg, The Lion King, Aladdin, you know, all of these great movies to this Disney is the laughing stock of, you know, the business world at this point in time.

此后艾斯纳重新掌权。

Heisner goes back after this.

可以说他在多方面都遭受了重创。

You know, he's wounded in more ways than one.

他回归后独自运营公司，将所有权力和责任都集中在自己手中。

And he goes back to running the company solo and consolidating all authority and responsibility with himself.

他任命鲍勃这一决定后来被证明极具先见之明。

He assigns Bob this actually becomes really prescient.

他将鲍勃派往一个看似——我本想说是西伯利亚前哨的职位。

He assigns Bob to what seems like a, a I was gonna use a Siberian outpost.

实际上，他确实被派往西伯利亚前哨般的岗位，负责公司的国际业务。

Actually, he's a Siberian outpost, to go run international for the company.

当时迪士尼在国际上并不算强大。

And Disney was not huge internationally at this time.

而鲍勃通过实际运营迪士尼业务学到了很多。

And Bob actually learns a lot by going and operating Disney's business.

这一时期正值——你知道的——欧洲迪士尼乐园筹建阶段，最初是个著名的失败案例，直到他们意识到欧洲父母需要午餐时喝点红酒来应对到处乱跑的孩子们。

So this is when, you know, Euro Disney was getting set up on the theme park side, which was a disaster at first famously until they figured out that European parents want wine at lunch to deal with their toddlers running around.

我认为这个决策扭转了局面。

And I think that turned it around.

不同国家有不同的文化。

Different countries are different.

我觉得美国父母可能也想午餐时喝点红酒来应付孩子们。

I American think parents probably also want wine at lunch to be able to deal with their kids.

我最近如此关注迪士尼的原因之一是三个月前我第一次去了迪士尼乐园，没错，我确实看到了星球大战主题区，而且它确实非常棒。

One of the reasons that that I've been so keyed into Disney recently is I went to Disneyland for the first time three months ago, and yes, did see Galaxy's Edge, and yes, it was awesome.

那里有个酒吧

And there's a bar in

确实有，但那是唯一的地方，而且你必须提前预约。

There is, and it is the only place, but you have to get these reservations.

几乎不可能进去。

It's almost impossible to get in.

你必须提前做好详细规划。

You have to, like, very preplan it.

但这是整个园区唯一能买到酒的地方，至少在迪士尼乐园是这样。

But it's the only place in the entire park to get alcohol, and at least in Disneyland.

我想在加州冒险乐园是可以的。

I think California Adventure, you can.

我记得在迪士尼乐园曾经可以，但他们突然转变政策全面禁酒了。

I think in Disneyland, you used to be able to, and they took a hard pivot and got rid of it all.

所以这很有趣。

So it's interesting.

我想他们在迪士尼乐园有过一些不太愉快的相关经历。

I think they have a little bit of a some experience with that going poorly at Disneyland.

有意思。

Interesting.

有意思。

Interesting.

但是

But

但重要的是，国际运营在这里是上海迪士尼最初的核心。

but importantly, running international here was the very beginning of Shanghai Disney.

是啊。

Yeah.

这后来成为鲍勃的标志性项目之一——虽然这期我们不会过多讨论，但在他整个公司职业生涯和CEO任期内，另一个重要项目就是为迪士尼打开中国市场，不仅是在内容方面，还包括主题乐园。

Which would become one of Bob's we're not gonna talk about as much on this episode, but another marquee project for him over his whole career at the company and his tenure as CEO was opening up China to Disney from, you know, content obviously, but also theme parks.

没错。

Right.

疯狂的是想想这个时间线。

And the crazy thing is thinking about the timeline of that.

所以那是在鲍勃去负责国际业务时开始的，就在我们讨论的这个时间段里。

That so that started when Bob went to run international here in this time frame we're talking In

九十年代末。

the late nineties.

它在过去几年才开业。

It opened in the last few years.

是啊。

Yeah.

是2018年吗？

Was it 2018?

2017年左右。

2017, somewhere

2017年或2018年上海迪士尼乐园开业的时候。

2017 or 2018 when Disneyland Shanghai opened.

一个耗时极长的项目。

An incredibly long project.

所以鲍勃在国际业务上表现非常出色。

So Bob does very well running internationally.

此外，他同时还在负责ABC电视台的运营。

And in addition, he's still running ABC as well.

最终在2000年1月，艾斯纳提拔鲍勃担任首席运营官。

And so finally, in January 2000, Eisner does promote Bob to COO.

到这个阶段他不得不这么做了。

He kinda has to at this point in time.

这个

The

董事会某种程度上对他保持若即若离的态度。

board is sort of like keeping him at arm's length.

你算是我的二把手，但实际上又不是。

You're sort of my number two, but you're not actually my number two.

董事会此刻对迈克尔已经非常不满，鉴于他做的那些事。

And the board is really starting to get really upset with Michael at this point in time after all his things.

继任计划。

Succession planning.

哥们，到底有什么计划？

Like, what's the plan, dude?

你做得并不出色，就算你做得不错，我们也想知道你之后会由谁接任。

Like, you're not doing that great, even if you were, it would be nice to know where we're going after you.

是啊。

Yeah.

你在这里已经很久了。

Like, you've been here a long time.

总之，鲍勃最终确实当上了首席运营官，但整体情况依然非常糟糕。

Anyway, so Bob finally does become COO, but still, all is really, really not well.

而目前迪士尼面临的最大问题，所有这些戏剧性事件和人事纷争，都集中在动画部门。

And the the biggest problem that's going on at Disney at this point in time, all this drama and personnel stuff, is animation.

要知道，迪士尼内部有句名言——我们接下来会多次提到这句话，我认为可以一直追溯到华特时代——'动画兴则公司兴'。

You know, and there's a saying within Disney that we're gonna talk about a number of times over this next bit here, which I think goes all the way back to to Walt of as animation goes, so goes the company.

动画及其真正意义在于...要知道，必须记住此时迪士尼还没有收购星球大战。

Animation and what animation really means you know, gotta remember at this point in time, Disney doesn't have Star Wars.

也没有漫威。

It doesn't have Marvel.

它只有...一些真人电影。

It it has, you know, some live action.

另一个非常明智的决策是

One of the other really smart things

降落

Touched down

电影。

pictures.

雷，艾斯纳和威尔斯做的另一件非常明智的事就是收购了米拉麦克斯。

Well, Ray, one of the other really smart things that Eisner and Wells did was they acquired Miramax.

这让迪士尼具备了面向成人而不仅仅是儿童的电影制作能力——不是那种成人电影，而是一个电影工作室。

That gave Disney an adult film not not an adult film, a film studio, capability targeted at grown ups, not just kids.

我是说，虽然迪士尼电影也适合成年人观看，这正是它们的魅力所在。

I mean, although Disney movies are for grown ups too, which is the beauty of them.

但无论如何，动画是IP创造的核心，它驱动着华特迪士尼那个我们曾在多期节目中讨论过的美妙飞轮。

But anyway, animation was the core of the IP generation that flowed through Walt Disney's beautiful flywheel that we've talked about on a few episodes here.

我们会在节目笔记中再次附上链接。

We'll link to again in the show notes.

回到华特迪士尼公司早期，华特曾绘制过这个飞轮模型。

Back in the early days of the Walt Disney Company, Walt illustrated this flywheel.

你知道，就像亚马逊的飞轮理论那样。

You know, it's like an Amazon flywheel.

这是迪士尼商业模式如何运作的最初版本。

It's the original one of how Disney's business model works.

而这一切的核心是动画。

And at the core of it all is animation.

动画意味着知识产权和内容角色的创造。

And animation means the generation of intellectual property and content characters.

这些会流入电影、电视、出版物、主题公园、角色互动、消费品等所有领域。

And that flows into movies, television, publications, theme parks, characters, visits, consumer products, all of this.

但如果没有不断创造新IP和更新旧IP的生命周期，这一切就会开始崩溃。

But without the life cycle of constantly inventing new and refreshing old IP, that all starts to break down.

戴夫和我一直推崇迪士尼的飞轮图，我想我们在多期节目中都详细讨论过它。

Dave and I have revered the Disney flywheel diagram and talked about it, I think, at length on many episodes.

实际上我前几天为了准备这次讨论又看了一遍，并开始更深入地思考。

And I actually looked at it the other day to prep for this and started thinking about it more.

我想到的一点是：当然，电影IP为乐园提供动力，而乐园又让人想购买周边商品。

And one thing that I thought about was, sure, the film IP powers the parks, and the parks make people wanna buy merch.

拥有周边商品会让你想重温电影并去看续集。

And owning the merch makes you wanna watch the movies again and go see the sequels.

但实际上，它在财务上是怎么运作的呢？

But, like, how does it actually shake out financially?

看看迪士尼的损益表，如果你考虑去年九月底结束的财年，结果相当反直觉。

And looking at the income statement for Disney that that, if you think about the year that ended this last September, this is pretty counterintuitive.

影视娱乐部门营收约110亿美元，但乐园体验、商品授权等业务收入超过260亿美元。

So studio entertainment did about $11,000,000,000 in revenue, but Parks experiences, products, licensing, that sort of thing, did over 26,000,000,000.

这个数字与媒体网络部门（主要是ESPN）的业绩相当接近。

And and that's pretty similar to what the media networks division did that's largely ESPN.

所以当你仔细想想，电影本身确实是一门庞大而优秀的生意。

And so when you think about it, like, sure, the movies are a big great business on their own.

当然，这包括卢卡斯影业和《星球大战》系列，总价值110亿美元。

And, of course, this includes Lucasfilm and Star Wars and all that at $11,000,000,000.

但更重要的是，他们通过向下漏斗的方式将这些植入观众心中的种子货币化，规模是电影业务的两倍多——比如引导观众通过其他方式与他们互动。

But more than twice as big is how they sort of monetize in a down funnel way of that that seed that they've planted with the audience of, hey, you should you should engage with us in these other ways.

这正是迪士尼真正特别之处，是它的护城河，也是我们在节目中频繁讨论它的原因。

That is what really makes Disney special and is Disney's moat and is the reason why we talk about it so much on this show.

市面上还有很多其他媒体公司。

There are lots of other media companies out there.

比如二十一世纪福克斯，我们稍后会讨论它。

There's twenty first Century Fox, which we'll talk about.

还有时代华纳。

There's Time Warner.

你知道的，还有很多其他公司。

There's, you know, plenty of others.

但没有其他公司能做到将110亿美元的电影收入转化为围绕它产生的260亿美元飞轮收入。

But nobody else has this ability to take $11,000,000,000 in film revenue and add an additional $26,000,000,000 in flywheel revenue around it.

让你感受下情况有多糟糕，天啊。

To give you a sense of how bad things were oh, man.

我记得这个。

I remember this.

那真是黑暗时期。

This was dark.

以下是这一时期迪士尼推出的动画电影代表作。

Here's a sampling of Disney animation movies that come out during this time.

准备好了吗，本？

You ready for this, Ben?

是啊。

Yeah.

幸好你是坐着的。

I'm glad you're sitting down.

《泰山》、《恐龙》、《失落的帝国》、《星银岛》。

Tarzan, dinosaur, Atlantis, treasure planet.

还记得《星银岛》吗？

Remember treasure planet?

哦，记得。

Oh, yeah.

不记得。

No.

是的

Yeah.

或者说对

Or Yes.

我是说，记得听说过《星银岛》

I mean, remember hearing of treasure planet.

比如这些是

Like, these were

嗯

yeah.

《熊的传说》

Brother bear.

这是不是《变身国王》？

Is this the the emperor's new groove?

是的

Yeah.

《变身国王》。

The Emperor's New Groove.

那段时间这可能是比较成功的作品之一。

That was probably one of the more successful ones during this time.

情况很糟糕。

Things are dark.

于是这个飞轮真的开始崩溃了。

So the flywheel really starts breaking down.

比如，乐园业绩下滑。

Like, parks are down.

就像，所有事情都很糟糕。

Like, everything's bad.

不过这段时期有个救星，而且是个大救星——迪士尼与湾区一家叫皮克斯的小公司保持着非常紧密的合作关系。

There's one saving grace though during this time period, and it's a big one, which is that Disney has a very close collaboration with a little company up here in the Bay Area called Pixar.

而皮克斯是一家独立的上市公司。

And Pixar is an independent public company.

我们之前遗憾地提到过，那是我们的第一期节目。

We've talked about sadly, it was our first episode.

关于皮克斯的历史和事实，我们会稍微讨论一下

Our history and facts on Pixar, we're gonna talk about it a little

更多内容。

more here.

句子。

Sentence.

大概一句话带过，但我们真的需要重新回顾整期节目。

It's about a sentence, and we really need to revisit the whole episode.

但皮克斯为了获得发行权和额外收入所做的努力。

But Pixar had done to get, distribution and then additional revenue.

他们与迪士尼达成了一项重大协议，迪士尼负责发行皮克斯电影，并共同授权所有角色用于主题公园和周边商品，让皮克斯角色通过迪士尼的飞轮效应运作。

They'd done a big deal with Disney where Disney distributed the Pixar films and co licensed with them all their characters for theme parks and merch and, you know, ran the Pixar characters through the Disney flywheel.

而皮克斯一贯制作——尤其在这个时期推出的——正是那些经典作品，比如《玩具总动员》。

And the movies and the content that Pixar, you know, has always produced, but was producing during this time was, you know, Toy Story.

第一部

Very first

就是《玩具总动员》。

one was Toy Story.

第一部是《玩具总动员》。

The first one was Toy Story.

《玩具总动员》、《玩具总动员2》、《虫虫特工队》、《怪兽电力公司》、《超人总动员》

Toy Story, Toy Story two, A Bug's Life, Monsters Inc, The Incredibles.

对比一下《泰山》。

Compare that to Tarzan.

所以真正维持迪士尼商业飞轮运转的，正是来自皮克斯的这些第三方IP资源。

And so this was this was really keeping the Disney flywheel afloat was this second party, IP that was flowing through it from from Pixar.

就连《海底总动员》也是收购前制作的。

Even Finding Nemo was pre acquisition.

我不太确定是不是。

I don't don't recall if it was or wasn't.

是啊。

Yeah.

好的。

Okay.

好的。

Okay.

对。

Yeah.

绝对是在收购之前。

Definitely was pre acquisition.

没错。

Yeah.

收购发生在2006年。

The acquisition was 2006.

所以很不幸，这成为了艾斯纳的最后一根稻草。

So unfortunately, and this was the last straw for Eisner.

艾斯纳与史蒂夫·乔布斯公开爆发冲突，导致交易破裂。

Eisner and Steve Jobs get into a very public clash and the deal goes sour.

此时皮克斯已上市，史蒂夫·乔布斯持有皮克斯49%的股份。

And Pixar and Steve Steve owns 49% of Pixar at this point and Pixar is a public company.

皮克斯宣布将在最初三部电影合约期满后终止与迪士尼的合作。

Pixar announces that they're gonna walk from the Disney deal at the end of their original three movie contract.

史蒂夫·乔布斯此时已重返苹果公司。

Steve Jobs publicly he's already come back to Apple at this point.

他开始了他的东山再起。

He started his reascendancy.

要知道，iPad、iMac和iPod都是那个时期的产物。

You know, the iPad the iMac, the iPod have happened.

他已成为备受尊重的商界领袖。

He is incredibly well respected business person.

别忘了当时舆论对迪士尼的评价——就像WeWork一样，他公开指责迪士尼管理彻底混乱，基本上是个垂死的公司。

And remember, the narrative around Disney has been this is this is WeWork, and he calls Disney completely mismanaged and, like, you know, basically a dead company.

不过这里真正有趣的是回归技术层面——要知道，迪士尼+、迪士尼的内容和创意部门一团糟，技术部门同样混乱不堪。

The really interesting thing here though to come back to technology and this will you know, to bring back Disney plus, Disney, the content and the creative side of the house was a mess, but also the technology side of the house was a mess.

要知道，新技术一直是推动迪士尼动画发展的动力，但他们已经完全停滞不前，而皮克斯在这方面占据了领先地位。

You know, again, like, it was always new technology that was driving Disney animation and they had just completely stagnated, and Pixar was the one that had taken the lead here.

是啊。

Yeah.

我是说，他们当时在做的事情，直到现在都堪称尖端。

And I mean, what they were doing was, and still is so cutting edge.

我是说，如果你回顾《玩具总动员》并想想它制作的年份，那是哪年来着？

I mean, if you look back at Toy Story and think about the year that that was produced, what was it?

9095年。

9095.

95年。

'5.

虽然远不如今天那种照片级的真实感，或是水、天空这些效果，但绝对是开创性的，与业内其他公司所做的任何作品都截然不同。

I mean, by no means the photorealistic stuff that it is today or the water or the sky or this, you know, but it is absolutely pioneering, and so unlike anything that anybody else in the industry was doing.

是啊。

Yeah.

我是说，我甚至试着回忆1995年我用的是哪种电脑。

I mean, about like, I'm trying to even remember what kind of computer I had in 1995.

如果那时我真的有电脑的话。

If I even had a computer.

我想家里是有台电脑，但我自己没有个人电脑。

I mean, I think my family had a computer, but I did not have my own computer.

我家有台Power Mac 8500。

My family had a Power Mac 8,500.

用的是摩托罗拉芯片，Max系统运行过一阵子。

It was the Motorola chip that Max ran on for a while.

我都不知道该怎么用兆赫兹来比较性能。

I know how to compare that in megahertz or anything.

而皮克斯那时已经在制作《玩具总动员》了。

It was so And here's Pixar making Toy Story.

渲染农场简直不可思议。

Incredible with the render farm.

正如诺兰·布什内尔告诉我们的，他研究出了如何用巨型服务器机房进行并行计算的渲染农场。

As Nolan Bushnell told us, he figured out how to do render farms with gigantic server rooms of of parallel computing.

是啊。

Yeah.

当迪士尼董事会与皮克斯的交易破裂后，他们已经受够了。

The Disney board, once the Pixar deal falls apart, they've had enough.

所以在2003年底，华特的侄子罗伊·迪士尼——他是董事会中代表迪士尼家族利益的监管者，以及长期担任迪士尼家族律师的斯坦利·戈尔德（也是董事会成员）——他们辞去了董事会职务并发动了

So in late two thousand three, Roy Disney, who is the nephew of Walt and the sort of steward of the Disney family's involvement on the board and with the company, and longtime Disney family lawyer Stanley Gold, who's also on the board, they resigned from the board and they launch

同一天，迪士尼

the same day Disney.

拯救迪士尼运动。

The save Disney campaign.

情况糟透了。

It's so bad.

所以现在你有迪士尼家族成员、前董事会成员发起运动，而‘拯救迪士尼’运动的目标就是罢免迈克尔·艾斯纳的CEO职位。

So here you have Disney family members, former board members campaigning, and the the the goal of the save Disney campaign is oust Michael Eisner as CEO.

是啊。

Yeah.

我们直说吧，‘拯救迪士尼’意味着什么。

Let's let's not mince words about what Save Disney means.

没错。

Yeah.

‘拯救迪士尼’就是要把艾斯纳赶下台。

Save Disney means get rid of Eisner.

于是他们决定通过发起一场代理权争夺战来推进这场运动，瞄准2004年3月的迪士尼股东会议，届时他们将鼓动所有股东参与。

And so they decide that how they're gonna run this campaign is they're gonna wage a proxy battle for the March 2004 shareholder meeting of Disney, where they're going to encourage all the shareholders.

要知道，上市公司的年度股东大会上都会进行代理投票。

You know, the proxy vote is at the annual shareholder meeting of every public company.

就是所有股东根据投票权，对董事会成员和公司管理层进行投票表决。

There's a, vote, like the all the shareholders vote according to their voting rights on the board of directors and the management of the company.

他们正在鼓励股东投票将艾斯纳赶出公司并撤出董事会。

And they're encouraging shareholders to vote Eisner out of the company and off the board.

不信任投票或投反对票。

No vote or no confidence.

非常有趣的是，就在这个时候，我记得发生了这件事，康卡斯特当时还只是一家有线电视公司。

Very interestingly, right at this time, and I remember this happening, Comcast, which at this point in time, you know, Comcast is just a cable company.

他们实际上只是一家有线电视分销公司。

Like, they they are literally just a cable distribution company.

我想他们那时拥有76人队和费城飞人队，总部设在费城。

I think they own the 76ers and the Philadelphia Flyers at this point in They're based in Philadelphia.

而且他们远没有像今天这样招人讨厌。

And they're nowhere near hated as badly as they are today.

互联网还没兴起。

The Internet hasn't launched.

你看不到任何推文。

You can't see any tweets.

是啊。

Yeah.

完全同意。

Totally.

我是说，他们依然招人恨。

I mean, they're still hated.

只是每个人都以为只有自己讨厌他们。

It's just everybody thinks they're the only person who hates them.

没错。

Yeah.

他们发起了对迪士尼的恶意收购要约。

They launch a hostile takeover bid for Disney.

他们提出以640亿美元的康卡斯特股票收购这家公司，因为他们觉得，嘿，这是个受损的资产。

They offer $64,000,000,000 in Comcast stock to take over the company because they see like, hey, this is damaged goods.

我们想玩这一手。

We wanna make this play.

我们想涉足内容与发行领域。

We wanna get into content and distribution.

我们要在这里建立一个帝国。

We're gonna build an empire here.

某种程度上说它没成功反而像个奇迹。

And it's kind of a miracle it doesn't work.

几乎就要成功了。

Like, almost works.

你看，十五年后康卡斯特已成为市值2000亿美元的公司。

You know, here we are fifteen years later, Comcast is a $200,000,000,000 company.

他们收购了NBC环球，确实获得了内容板块的业务。

They've acquired NBCUniversal, so they have gotten their content side of the house.

但迪士尼现在是市值2500亿美元的独立上市公司，当年差点被康卡斯特收购。

But Disney is a $250,000,000,000 standalone public company that once was almost acquired by Comcast.

是50亿还是640亿来着？

For 50 or for 64,000,000,000.

是啊。

Yeah.

幸好没发生。

Pretty good that didn't happen.

手段还挺狡猾的，对吧，就在财报电话会议前夜那会儿。

In a sneaky move too, like, right, you know, that night before the earnings call.

对。

Yeah.

没错。

Yeah.

嗯，而且这救了迪士尼一命，当时代理权争夺战正激烈。

Well and while this saved Disney, proxy war was going on.

有趣的是，媒体圈就像我们节目常聊的科技圈一样，也是个很小的世界。

So interestingly, the media world is a small world too just as is the technology world as we talk about on this show.

康卡斯特的二把手，我不清楚他的头衔是首席运营官还是总裁什么的，CEO是布莱恩·罗伯茨。

Comcast number two, I don't know if his title was COO or president or just what, the CEO is Brian Roberts.

二号人物是史蒂夫·伯克，他是丹·伯克的儿子，曾在ABC为鲍勃短暂工作过，那是在与Capital Cities合并之前。

The number two person is Steve Burke, son of Dan Burke, who had worked for Bob briefly at ABC before the Capital Cities merger.

所以这里有很多个人历史渊源。

So there's a lot of personal history, here.

幸运的是，至少对迪士尼来说，康卡斯特的收购报价最终告吹，因为迪士尼股价在收购消息公布后飙升，即使采用股票置换方式，康卡斯特也负担不起了。

Fortunately, for Disney, at least, Comcast bid eventually collapses because Disney stock runs up in price on the announcement of this takeover bid, and Comcast just can't afford it even with a even with a share deal.

当时是什么因素导致股价暴涨的？

And what was it that made the stock pop there?

我记得好像是有几部电影表现不错，财报中某个数据点让市场兴奋了起来。

I think it was like there was a couple of movies that did well, and there was like one data point in earnings that got everyone excited.

在那段相当低迷的时期，这就像是一线微弱的希望曙光，推动股价飙升，使得这笔收购无法达成。

It was like a a small sort of like glimmer of hope in this otherwise pretty destitute time that made the stock pop and and made this bid impossible to go through.

是啊。

Yeah.

说真的，我已经很久没提这件事了。

I mean, really was, I haven't said this in a while.

历史就在这千钧一发之际发生了转折。

It was history turning on a knife point.

收购要约虽然失败了，但三月份的股东会议仍如期举行，令人震惊的是43%的迪士尼股东在会议上对艾斯纳投了不信任票。

The bid collapses, but the shareholder meeting still has to happen in March, and an astounding 43% of Disney shareholders vote no confidence in Eisner, at the shareholder meeting.

这简直太疯狂了。

Like, that's insane.

这种事前所未有。

That never, never happens.

是啊。

Yeah.

每次收到这类邮件我都觉得，我能对决策产生什么影响呢？

Whenever I get those things in the mail, I'm always like, Like, I could have anything to do with this decision.

确实。

Yeah.

就在当晚，迪士尼董事会立即召开会议，剥夺了艾斯纳的董事长头衔。

So in the immediate aftermath, literally that night, the Disney board meets and they strip Eisner of his chairman title.

所以他当时身兼董事长和CEO。

So he was chairman and CEO.

因此他不再担任董事会主席。

So he's no longer chairman of the board.

并且他宣布将在合同到期时离职，即2006年合约期满时。

And he announces that he's going to step down from the company at the end of his contract, which expires in 2006.

他最终提前离任，但这确实是个有点不光彩的、可悲的结局，这就是一个在位过久的典型案例。

He would end up leaving earlier, but that's really a sad kinda ignominious, you know, end for it's an example of somebody staying too long.

他在公司的前十年表现卓越，但后十年却糟糕透顶。

Again, his first ten years within the company were amazing, but the second ten were were terrible.

于是董事会开始物色新CEO，鲍勃·艾格是唯一内部候选人，但这是一场极其艰难的战斗。

So the board runs a search for a new CEO, and Bob Iger is the only internal candidate, but it's a super uphill battle.

要知道，他作为首席运营官，全程经历了 Eisner 的所有灾难。

Like, he's the COO to Michael Eisner through all of these disasters.

所以没人相信他能真正获得这份工作。

So nobody believes he's actually gonna get the job.

他们正在考虑各种外部候选人。

They're looking at all sorts of external candidates.

有趣的是，最被看好的外部候选人是梅格·惠特曼，她的事业起步于迪士尼。

Interestingly, the front runner external candidate is Meg Whitman, who started her career within Disney.

这是我在这次调研中发现最不可思议的事情。

Which is the craziest thing I learned in this research.

当然，我们都知道梅格·惠特曼是因为'惠特曼竞选美国'或eBay的梅格·惠特曼。

Of course, we know Meg Whitman as Meg Whitman for America or Meg Whitman of eBay.

她现在担任哪家公司的CEO？

What's she CEO of now?

惠普。

HP.

对吧？

Right?

她曾担任惠普的CEO。

She was CEO of HP.

她现在担任Quibi的CEO。

Now she's CEO of, Quibi.

把这一切

Bring it all

画上圆满句号。

full circle.

是啊。

Yeah.

但她职业生涯的起点是在迪士尼的战略规划部门。

But she started her freaking career in Disney's strategic planning.

没错。

Yep.

对。

Yep.

很多人都是这样起步的。

As did so many people.

杰夫·乔丹后来成为OpenTable的CEO，现在呢，多年来一直是普通合伙人，最近刚晋升为安德森·霍洛维茨基金的联合管理合伙人，同时也是Airbnb等多家优秀公司的董事会成员。迈克尔·迪尔林是我们Wave非常敬仰的优秀种子期投资人。

Jeff Jordan, went on to become CEO of, OpenTable and now is, well, was general partner for many years and, now is just promoted to co managing partner of Andreessen Horowitz, board member of many great companies including Airbnb, Michael Dearing, great seed stage investor that we look up to a lot here at Wave.

迪士尼战略规划部门培养出了非常多优秀人才。

Many, many great folks have come out of Disney strap planning.

太疯狂了。

Crazy.

所以你们这里有伊格尔，这个当COO时放任所有坏事发生的家伙。

So you got Iger here, this guy that let all the bad things happen as COO.

拜托，这可是在你任期内发生的。

Come on, this was on your watch.

是啊。

Yeah.

比如，凭什么你能当CEO？

Like, why are you CEO?

为什么是

Why is

鲍勃，你应该

Bob should you

提出了这个计划。

comes up with the plan.

我们现在处于2004、2005年。

So we're now in 2004, 2005.

鲍勃提出的这个计划最终成就了迪士尼+。

Bob comes up with the plan that that ends in Disney plus.

他表示意识到，要获得CEO职位，必须与迈克尔划清界限，并通过制定关于迪士尼未来的计划来实现。

And he says he realizes that both to get the job as CEO, he has to distance himself from Michael, and he has to do that by making his plan about the future of Disney.

就像，忘记过去。

Like, forget the past.

过去已成定局。

Like, the past is done.

我们必须展望未来。

We have to look to the future.

这对迪士尼来说也是正确的选择。

And it's also the right thing for Disney.

就像迪士尼，你知道的，不创新就会灭亡。

Like, Disney, you know, it's innovate or die.

他们已经很久没有创新了，正在走向衰亡。

Like, they have not innovated in a long time, and they are dying.

他们需要改变对待消费者、市场、技术以及周围一切事物的方式。

Like, they need to change their approach to consumers, to the market, to technology, to everything that's happening around them.

于是他提出了三个关键支柱，认为这将改变并拯救迪士尼。

So he comes up with three key pillars of what he thinks is going to transform Disney and save it.

第一，制作高质量内容。

One, make high quality content.

重要的是，这些内容要涵盖所有类型，不仅仅是动画，但必须保持极高的质量。

And importantly, that's content of all types, not just animation, but it has to be extremely high quality.

我们将引用他在书中关于这三点的话，因为我觉得他阐述得既精辟又雄辩。

And we're gonna quote from him in the book on on his three points here because I think they're just super cogently and eloquently laid out.

再次提醒，这是他十五年前提出的观点。

And again, remember, this is fifteen years ago he laid these out.

而且重要的是，品牌化内容。

And importantly, branded content.

我们拥有的内容可以成为持久特许经营权，这将推动迪士尼整个业务飞轮运转。

Content that we own that can be enduring franchises that that that will enable the rest of the Disney flywheel to spin.

是的。

Yeah.

他说，我们需要将大部分时间和资金投入到高质量品牌内容的创作中，正如他所说，在越来越多所谓的'内容'被创作和传播的时代，我们需要押注于'质量将越来越重要'这一事实。

So he says, we needed to devote most of our time and capital to the creation of high quality branded content, as he said, In an age where more and more, quote unquote, content was being created and distributed, we needed to bet on the fact that quality will matter more and more.

仅仅创作大量内容是不够的。

It wasn't enough to create lots of content.

有很多人都在创作大量内容，包括YouTube和用户生成内容，他们创作了海量内容，其中有些确实很棒。

There are lots of people creating lots of content, including, like, YouTube and UGC, just creating, like, tons and tons of content, some of which is great.

甚至创作大量优质内容也是不够的。

It wasn't even enough to create lots of good content.

面对选择的爆炸式增长，消费者需要有能力决定如何分配他们的时间和金钱。

With an explosion of choice, consumers needed an ability to make decisions about how to spend their time and money.

他们认为，强大的品牌将成为引导消费者行为更有力的工具。

Great brands would become even more powerful tools for guiding consumer behavior, they believed.

这一观点在当时既精准又非显而易见。

And that was just like so spot on and not obvious at the time.

要知道，YouTube那时才刚刚起步。

Like, YouTube is about to get started here.

Web2.0时代正在到来。

You know, web2.o is happening.

Flickr已经出现了。

Flickr is out there.

用户生成内容（UGC）被所有人挂在嘴边。

Like UGC, everybody's like UGC, UGC, UGC.

当时人们并未意识到，未来其实会加倍押注专业级的超高质量内容。

It's not obvious that the future is actually doubling down on professional super high quality content.

这非常有趣。

It's very interesting.

我认为我们在很多方面都看到了这种趋势，随着长尾效应的出现，实际上，我想正是在《长尾理论》这本书出版的那个时期，存在着两种不同的策略和玩法。

And I think we see this trend in a lot of ways where you sort of are as the long tail starts to exist, and actually, I think this is right around that time that the long tail book came out, there's two different strategies and two different playbooks to run.

一种是激活长尾市场，这意味着你要围绕非常小众但深入的主题创建小型兴趣群体，比如全球范围内的Acquired播客和现有的70万个播客。

One is enable the the long tail, which means that you create these smaller affinity groups around really niche things that go super deep, like the Acquireds of the world and the 700,000 podcasts that are out there.

而在曲线的顶端，如果你想成为少数赢家之一，就需要采取截然不同的策略，比如说：

And then at the head of the curve, if you're gonna be one of the few that wins there, you need to run a very different strategy to say, hey.

这些是支柱。

This is the pillars.

就像，这些是美国民众将会团结关注的事物。

Like, these are the things that America is gonna galvanize around.

是的。

Yeah.

不仅仅是美国，全世界都是如此，我们稍后会详细讨论这一点。

Not just America, but the world, which we'll get into in a sec.

你知道，这是终局之战。

You know, it's Endgame.

我认为鲍勃和迪士尼他们认可用户生成内容，认可所有科技公司的创新以及过去十五年发生的一切。

I think Bob and Disney I think they appreciate UGC, they appreciate all the technology companies and innovation and everything that's happened over the ensuing fifteen years.

但这是个'而且'，你懂吗？

But it's an and, you know?

就像有YouTube也有Netflix。

It's like there's YouTube and there's Netflix.

对。

Right.

但它们本质上不是那样的。

But they're they're inherently not that.

比如迪士尼，某种程度上这就是推特交易失败的原因。

Like, Disney, it's partially why the Twitter deal fell apart.

我是说，当他们真正审视时就会觉得，天啊，所有这些用户创造内容固然存在各种风险，因为人们会发各种推文，但这真的不是我们的业务本质。

I mean, I think when they really looked at it, were like, boy, all this, like, user creates granted there's all these risks and stuff involved in it because people are tweeting all the stuff that they're tweeting, but, like, it's just not it's not actually what we do.

我们创作内容。

We create content.

是啊。

Yeah.

没错。

Yeah.

好了，各位听众。

Alright, listeners.

是时候聊聊我们另一家心仪的公司Statsig了。

It's time to talk about another one of our favorite companies, Statsig.

自上次我们讨论Statsig以来，他们有了一个非常令人振奋的更新。

Since you last heard from us about Statsig, they have a very exciting update.

他们完成了C轮融资，估值达到11亿美元。

They raised their series c, valuing them at $1,100,000,000.

是啊。

Yeah.

重大里程碑。

Huge milestone.

祝贺团队。

Congrats to the team.

时机很有趣，因为实验领域正变得异常火热。

And timing is interesting because the experimentation space is, really heating up.

是的。

Yes.

那么为什么投资者对Statsig的估值超过10亿美元？

So why do investors value STAT SEG at over $1,000,000,000?

因为实验已成为全球顶尖产品团队产品栈中的关键部分。

It's because experimentation has become a critical part of the product stack for the world's best product teams.

没错。

Yep.

这一趋势始于Web2.0公司，如Facebook、Netflix和Airbnb。

This trend started with web two dot o companies like Facebook and Netflix and Airbnb.