第11集：PayPal

对吧？

Right?

他们靠窃取你整个通讯录并给所有人发邮件发展起来的。

They they grew on the the back of stealing your entire address book and emailing everyone.

是的。

Yep.

几年后他们为此只付出了大约1亿美元，当时因为这事还闹出了大规模集体诉讼。

And it only cost them like, what, a $100,000,000 or something a few years later when there was a gigantic class action suit for doing that.

而且你知道，他们现在是一家真正成功的公司，正是因为他们利用了现成的社交网络。

And, you know, they're a real and successful company because they they piggybacked off that existing network.

或者想想爱彼迎。

Or or think about Airbnb.

要知道，虽然爱彼迎不太提这事，但网上有很多相关文章。

Know, there there are a bunch of articles out there and Airbnb doesn't talk about it that that much.

但在早期，他们确实通过自动发布到Craigslist，从那里挖走了大量供需双方到自己的平台。

But definitely in the early days, you know, they were auto posting to Craigslist and pulling a whole lot of both supply and demand out of out of Craigslist and onto their platform.

是的。

Yep.

但话说回来，我认为关键在于你必须设法将用户引流出来，然后将其牢牢锁定在你自己的生态系统中。

But again, I think the key is you have to you have to kinda exfiltrate the users and then and then keep them captive within your own ecosystem.

没错。

Right.

我当时还年轻，但印象中PayPal对我来说，仅仅是在eBay上交易时使用的工具——那时我靠卖豆豆娃和童子军徽章赚钱。

And I, you know, I was young at the time, but I don't necessarily remember ever like, PayPal only existed to me when I was, again, selling Beanie Babies and then Boy Scout patches on eBay as my way of transacting on eBay.

它似乎从来就不是为了

Never really seemed like the purpose of it was to

其他任何用途而存在的。

Anything else.

对。

Yeah.

是啊。

Yeah.

是啊。

Yeah.

有意思。

Interesting.

那么如果eBay当时没有收购PayPal的话...嗯哼。

So had eBay not acquired PayPal when it did Mhmm.

要知道，PayPal当时是家上市公司。

You know, PayPal was a public company.

两家公司的命运会怎样呢？

What would have happened to both companies?

所以可能...哦，对。

You know, so maybe oh, yeah.

我们刚才一直在讨论PayPal。

We've just been talking about PayPal.

或许情况会很艰难...要知道，eBay本可以给他们制造很多麻烦的。

Perhaps would have been hard for the you know, eBay could have made life really hard for them.

那么eBay呢？

What about what about eBay?

你之前提到PayPal为eBay市场带来了什么价值？

You were talking earlier about what's the value that PayPal brought to the eBay marketplace?

嗯。

Mhmm.

同样地，PayPal是否也能让eBay的日子不好过？

Well, similarly, could PayPal have made life hard for eBay?

PayPal是否有可能采取某些措施，

Could PayPal have done something where

他们本可以创建一个与PayPal关联的自家市场吗？

Could they have started their own marketplace attached to to PayPal?

哦，哇。

Oh, wow.

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是，这看起来几乎有点牵强。

That I mean, that seems like almost seems far fetched.

这就像是，这是一个如此不同且庞大的业务。

It's like it's it's such a such a different and large business.

是啊。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

我是说，不认为PayPal对eBay有多大影响力。

I mean, don't think PayPal had a whole lot of power over eBay.

除非PayPal退出，否则人们可能对eBay提供的电子平台会感到不太放心，因为那时它还不够安全。

Other than if they went away, maybe people would have been kind of uncomfortable with the electronic platform that eBay was providing because it wasn't as secure yet.

嗯。

But Mhmm.

但我打赌eBay很快就能解决这个问题。

I bet eBay would have figured that out pretty quick.

是啊。

Yeah.

我是说，想象一下——虽然我觉得这种可能性很小——但你可以设想PayPal找到了除eBay之外的另一片市场？

I mean, imagine you you can I I think this is a slim scenario, but you can imagine a scenario where PayPal finds a different market besides eBay?

嗯。

Mhmm.

就是他们如今发展壮大的资金转账业务，要知道人们最终对此非常适应，尽管最初并不习惯。

The money transfer one that they've grown into today, which, you know, people eventually did become very comfortable with, but were uncomfortable at the time.

是的。

Yep.

如果他们当时离开了eBay，可能就得熬过一段艰难时期。

So they probably would have had to ride out some tough times for a while if they had moved away from eBay.

而eBay或许没能解决这个问题，也没能完善欺诈检测机制。

And eBay maybe doesn't figure it out and figure out the fraud detection.

这样一来，人们在eBay上交易会感到不安，他们永远无法让所有人都使用自己的支付平台，人们也不喜欢用eBay，因为他们还得用传统系统，然后有人出现并重新构建了整个体系——这么一想确实觉得有点牵强。

And then people are uncomfortable transacting on eBay, and they never get everyone onboarded to their own payment platform, and people don't like using eBay because they still have to use an analog system, and then someone comes along and builds it it all feels farfetched, actually.

我越说越觉得他们本可以解决这个问题。

More I talk about it, it's like they would have figured it out.

实际上在此之前，PayPal根本不会选择离开。

Actually, before that, PayPal just never would have moved away.

我的意思是，那就像是他们的摇钱树。

I mean, was like, that was the the cash cow.

那是他们终于找到了产品市场契合点，是的。

That was their their finally, they had found product market fit in this Yep.

本质上就像是作为...的供应商，对。

In being effectively like a vendor or a supplier for yeah.

很可能就是eBay的供应商。

Probably a vendor for for eBay.

那么eBay会面临什么情况？

So what would have happened to eBay?

我实在想象不出eBay不占上风的情形。

I can't I can't imagine a scenario where eBay doesn't win here.

我认为唯一——不，不是唯一，但一个可能对eBay不利的情景是，想想收购与分拆之间的十三年间，PayPal发展得如此迅猛，以至于占据了公司整体价值的约65%。

I think the only well, not the only, but one potentially negative picture you could paint for eBay here is, you know, if you think about over the subsequent thirteen years between the acquisition and the spin off, PayPal grows so much that it is, you know, call it 65% of the entire value of the company.

甚至可能达到70%。

Maybe even 70%.

嗯。

Mhmm.

而且毫无疑问是公司全部的增长引擎。

And certainly all of the growth engine of the company.

如果eBay没有这个极具吸引力的增长业务作为依托，它还能招募、吸引并留住顶尖人才吗？

Would eBay have been able to recruit and attract and retain top quality talent if it didn't have this really sexy growth business attached to it?

eBay会不会因此更早陷入停滞？

Know, would eBay have stagnated a lot earlier?

这个观点很有道理。

That's a great point.

确实。

Yeah.

我是说，这种观点基于一个假设，即这种状态或局面实际上可以持续多年。

I mean, think that's predicated on the idea that, like, it was it it could actually that status or that state could actually persist for many years.

这种状态指的是它们作为独立业务存在，彼此需要对方，形成共生关系。

The state of them being separate businesses and both of them needing each other, that symbiotic relationship.

这似乎很难。

It seems hard.

我的意思是，我们受到历史和实际发生事件的偏见，但确实很难想象这两家公司能独立存在。

I mean, we're biased by history and what actually happened here, but it does seem hard to imagine these two companies existing separately.

是啊。

Yeah.

直到

Until

发展到如今PayPal已成为真正庞大且可行的业务，而eBay仅占其一小部分时。

you get to the point where you are now where PayPal is really a large and viable business with with eBay only being a minority of it.

没错。

Yeah.

在我看来，情况是这样的。

I mean, in my opinion, if it's like here's here's what happens.

如果eBay没有在2002年7月收购PayPal，那么eBay会在不同时间以不同价格收购PayPal。

If eBay doesn't acquire PayPal in, you know, July 2002, eBay acquires PayPal for a different price at a different time.

没错。

Yep.

我...我不认为

I I don't think that

有意思的是思考价格会更高还是更低。

it's interesting think whether that would be higher or lower.

是啊。

Yeah.

确实。

Yeah.

两种可能性都存在。

Could go either way.

确实如此。

That's true.

好的，听众朋友们。

Alright, listeners.

首先，

Well, first off,

节日快乐。

happy holidays.

节日快乐。

Happy holidays.

本，也祝你节日快乐。

And happy holidays to you, Ben, as well.

谢谢。

Thank you.

趁着休息、旅行和享受精彩播客的时机，我们与Odd Lots播客的朋友们聊了聊，他们提议说，嘿。

Well, in the spirit of downtime and travel and enjoying great podcasts, we were talking with our friends over at the Odd Lots podcast, and they suggested, hey.

二月份我们在Odd Lots上合作的那期节目真是太棒了。

That episode we did together on Odd Lots back in February, it was so great.

如果我们能在年底时在双方的节目中共同重点推荐呢？

What if we highlight on both of our shows at the end of

今年？

the year?

我们当时就答应了。

And we said, yes.

这还用想。

No brainer.

好主意。

Great idea.

我们讨论了所有热门话题：台积电、爱马仕、火星、英伟达，以及成就一家伟大公司所需的一切要素。

We talked about all the hits on it, TSMC, Hermes, Mars, NVIDIA, and everything that goes into making a great company.

后来我们继续交流时，意识到今年我们双方的节目都迎来了十周年，这太不可思议了。

And then we were talking with them some more, and we realized that both of our shows turned 10 years old this year, which is crazy.

所以这是命中注定的。

So it was fate.

我们必须这么做。

We gotta do it.

Odd Lots这个节目太棒了。

So Odd Lots is awesome.

它是我最喜欢的节目之一，也是我获取研究资料的首选来源。

It's one of my favorite shows and always a go to source for acquired research.

没错。

Yep.

他们关于台积电的那几期节目实际上是我们研究的主要参考资料之一。

Their episodes on TSMC were actually some of our main sources for that one.

是啊。

Yeah.

Joe和Tracy配合得非常好，他们之间有种神奇的默契，让整个节目听起来特别有趣。

Joe and Tracy do an awesome job, and they have that sort of magical, great cohost dynamic together that makes listening just really fun.

如果你在假期旅行中想找更多音频内容，快去听听《Odd Lots》吧。

So if you're looking for more audio content for your holiday travel, go check out Odd Lots.

你可以从我们与他们合作的那期节目开始听，我们会在节目说明里附上链接。

You can start with our episode with them, which we'll link to in the show notes.

不过说实话，他们的任何作品都不会让你失望。

But, honestly, you can't go wrong with any of their work.

完全同意。

Totally.

祝贺他们成立十周年，祝大家节日快乐。

Congratulations to them on ten years, and happy holidays, everyone.

节日快乐。

Happy holidays.

现在回到节目。

Now back to the show.

好的。

Alright.

我们该转向科技主题了吗？

Should we move on to tech themes?

好的。

Yeah.

没错。

Yeah.

我觉得这挺有意思的。

I think that's interesting.

应该这么做。

Should do that.

我准备充分了，真的很想深入探讨这个话题。

I've got well, I really wanna dive in here.

虽然这和收购案有些关联，但我觉得如果不谈谈这个就太疏忽了——对我来说，这就是PayPal黑帮的故事。

And this is somewhat related to the acquisition, but I think we would just be remiss if we didn't really talk about I mean, for me, this is the PayPal mafia.

你知道的，我认为这个论点完全站得住脚。

You know, I mean, I think you could make a very valid argument.

甚至很难反驳这样一个观点：eBay收购PayPal这一单一事件，成为了催生我们现在所熟知的硅谷和科技创业生态系统的催化剂。

It might even be hard to argue against a thesis that this single event, this acquisition of PayPal by eBay was the catalyst to create everything that we now know of as Silicon Valley and the technology startup ecosystem.

我们会详细分析这一点，但仅就这次收购引发的一系列事件链而言，确实令人难以置信。

We'll unpack this, but just the the chain of events set in motion by this acquisition is really incredible.

想想那些曾在PayPal工作的人，Tech Republic上有篇很棒的文章——我们会在节目说明里附上链接——标题大概是《PayPal黑帮如何重新定义硅谷的成功》。

You think about the people that were at PayPal, and there's there's a great, there's a great article on, the tech republic, we'll link to it in the show notes, about, it's titled, I believe, how the PayPal mafia redefined success in Silicon Valley.

许多PayPal的创始成员都谈到，他们当时都是非常年轻的群体，刚经历了PayPal那段超级艰难却又令人振奋的岁月，在那里他们解决了一堆前人从未涉足的问题。

And many of the many of the founders of of PayPal talk about how, you know, they were all these incredibly young, people and they've they've just been through this, you know, super difficult but exhilarating experience at PayPal where they'd figure out a whole bunch of stuff that had never been done before.

就像我们说的，那段日子确实很艰难。

Like we were saying, it was really hard.

后来他们赚了大钱进入eBay，结果遭遇了彻底的文化冲突。

And then they made a bunch of money and then they showed up at eBay and it was like complete culture clash.

他们讨厌那里的环境，很快就都离职了。

And they hated it there and they all left quickly.

但当时他们都还很年轻，充满野心，渴望证明自己。

But they were all still really young and ambitious and wanted to prove themselves.

所以，就像，你只要顺着公司名单往下看——我这里主要讲两类公司。

And so, like, you just go down the list of company so I'm gonna talk about just I'm gonna talk about two sets of companies here.

第一类是PayPal校友创立的公司：领英、Yammer、Yelp、YouTube、Palantir、SpaceX、特斯拉。

The first are companies founded by PayPal alums, LinkedIn, Yammer, Yelp, YouTube, Palantir, SpaceX, Tesla.

而Reddit并非YouTube校友创立，但其CEO曾由PayPal校友担任过一段时间。

And then Reddit was not founded by YouTube alums but was the CEO of Reddit for a while.

王雨山（Yushan Wang）是YouTube还是PayPal的校友来着？

Yushan Wang was a YouTube alum or a PayPal alum.

以上就是这群人实际创立的公司。

And then and then so that's companies actually founded by this group of people.

然后是硅谷及周边地区其他公司，PayPal黑帮成员在其中担任早期投资人、顾问或对公司创立起到关键作用。

And then companies other companies in Silicon Valley and related environs where PayPal, Mafia alumni were very early investors or advisers or instrumental in in in starting the company.

包括Facebook、Uber、爱彼迎、Square、Pinterest、Stripe等等，这份名单可以一直列下去。

Facebook, Uber, Airbnb, Square, Pinterest, Stripe, and it just goes on and on and on.

没错。

Yeah.

我是说，实际上几乎硅谷自那次收购后诞生的每一家重要公司，其历史都能直接或间接追溯到PayPal黑手党。

I mean, you're talking practically practically every company, every major company that Silicon Valley has produced since that acquisition can trace its history either directly or indirectly to to the PayPal mafia.

是啊。

Yeah.

我在节目开始前跟David开了个玩笑。

I mean, made a joke to David before this show.

我查阅资料时就在想，我们本可以请个嘉宾，但当时在场的人都富得离谱，他们怎么可能愿意上播客呢？

Was reading up and I was like, We we could get a guest for this, but all the people that were there are so insanely rich that why would they ever bother to go on a podcast?

我觉得有趣的是，这些财富并非来自他们在PayPal赚的钱。

And I think the funny thing is, like, it's it's not from it's not from the money they made from PayPal.

不是。

No.

虽然有人确实发财了。

I mean, people got rich.

有人成了亿万富翁，至少也是身价近亿那种。

Like people got 100 millionaire rich, but or at least like high tens.

别忘了PayPal经历过多次股权稀释。

Well, don't forget there've been a lot of dilution at PayPal.

我是说，他们融资了大概1.8亿美元。

I mean, they'd raised, believe, a $180,000,000.

这应该包括了IPO时募集的资金。

I think that includes the capital they'd raised in the IPO.

嗯。

Mhmm.

之前还有过公司合并。

There'd been a merger of companies.

创始团队人数众多。

There are lots of founders.

我的意思是，收购后这些人里不可能有谁单靠这次交易就暴富。

I mean, there's no way that individually any of those people became hugely filthy rich after that acquisition.

是啊。

Yeah.

这更多是关于一群真正聪明的人在那之后所认识到和做的事情，以及他们因为PayPal的成长方式所看到的机会。

It was it was more about what a whole bunch of really smart people recognized and did after that, and opportunities that they saw because of the way that they grew PayPal.

实际上，这正好引出了我一直在思考的问题。

I mean, actually, this is this is a good segue into what I was thinking about.

PayPal某种程度上开创了许多我们今天在初创企业中看到的模式。

PayPal sort of invented a lot of the paradigms that we see in startups today.

确实如此。

Absolutely.

我

I

首先，他们是第一个实施'邀请朋友得免费资金'这种商业模式的。

mean, first one they they were the first business to do the whole if you invite a friend, you get free money thing.

现在这种'免费资金'很常见，比如邀请朋友用Uber就能在账户里得到15美元。

And it's it's like sort of free money now, like, oh cool, if I invite a friend to Uber, I get $15 in my Uber account.

而PayPal当时真的会直接给你一美元。

Like PayPal literally gave you a dollar.

是啊。

Yeah.

一美元，五美元。

Dollar, $5.

他们真的直接给你钱。

They literally gave you money.

就像他们会发邮件给朋友说，恭喜你，你有免费的钱了。

Was like if you they would email their friends and like, congratulations, you have free dollars.

他们发明了病毒式获客。

They invented viral acquisition.

对。

Yeah.

是的，我是说，我们刚才在聊公司创立和投资的部分。

So yeah, I mean, we were talk I was just talking about the company founding and investing part.

现在我们来谈谈那些如今已司空见惯的实际策略或战术吧。

Let's talk now about the the actual strategy or tactics that are just now commonplace.

要知道，他们基本上发明了增长黑客。

You know, they basically invented growth hacking.

所以病毒式用户获取的嵌入式方案。

So viral user acquisition embeds.

嗯。

Mhmm.

PayPal是最早的——如果不是第一个——可以嵌入其他网页应用的应用。

You could embed PayPal was one of the first, if not the first app that you could embed in other web apps.

要知道，想想PayPal的直接公司成果后代就是YouTube。

And know, think and then think about, you know, a direct company outcome progeny of of PayPal was YouTube.

YouTube是怎么成功的？

And how did YouTube succeed?

要知道，就是靠嵌入式。

You know, it was embeds.

真有意思。

So funny.

我这儿有个有趣的故事。

I have I have a good story here.

我给朋友尼尔斯建了个网站。

I built a website, for my buddy Nils.

尼尔斯，如果你在听的话，得提下你名字，当时我们在卖T恤。

Nils, if you're out there listening, gotta name you, where we were selling t shirts.

那时我还是个非常早期的网页开发者，不太懂搭建在线商店的最佳方式。

And I was a super early web developer, and I didn't know a lot of the best ways to do an online storefront.

我们做这个T恤网站的方式，是为每个SKU生成独特的PayPal按钮，直接把小小的PayPal表单嵌入每个T恤页面。

And the way that we built out this t shirt website was by generating a unique PayPal button for every SKU, and I just literally embedded the little PayPal form on every single t shirt page.

是个子目录，但确实能用。

Was a subdirectory And on our it worked.

我是说，完全没问题。

I mean, just completely worked.

而且我没有用专门的店面系统，比如库存管理那些功能。

And I didn't have a storefront, like, weren't using that for inventory management.

没关系，因为我们卖的T恤并不多。

It's fine because we didn't sell that many t shirts.

但说到底，我们通过嵌入一堆PayPal按钮就有了一个可运作的网站。

But at the end of the day, like, we had a working website by a bunch of PayPal button embeds.

这就是很多小商店长期以来运作的方式。

And that's how a lot of little storefronts worked for a long time.

而且我认为，它们之所以能成功，显然主要是因为它们曾是PayPal的重要组成部分。

And I think, you know, they they obviously succeeded primarily because they were such a huge part of PayPal.

但即便在那之后，当它们逐渐脱离PayPal发展业务时，我想很多人也是这么做的。

But, like, even after that, as they were growing their business off PayPal for a long time, I think that's what a lot of people did.

我们接受PayPal支付。

We accept PayPal.

脱离eBay后。

Off eBay.

或者说，是的。

Or yeah.

抱歉。

Sorry.

在eBay之外。

Off eBay.

是的。

Yep.

它们对我来说已经合二为一了

They're so one and the same to

现在。

me now.

我知道。

I know.

确实很难在脑海中将它们区分开来。

It's it is hard to untangle them in your mind.

我还有另一件事要说。

I have one other thing too.

这个

The

我也是。

Me too.

请继续说吧。

Like, go ahead.

好的。

Alright.

我来处理这个。

I'll take this one.

支付的有趣之处在于我们今天在广告中看到的现象，我要在这两者之间做个类比。

The interesting thing about payments are something that we see in advertising today, a parallel I'm gonna make between the two.

过去10期节目我们一直在讨论Facebook和Google作为广告平台的崛起，它们抢走了大量原本属于非社交广告（比如展示广告）的广告预算。

We've been talking a lot over the past 10 episodes about, you know, the rise of Facebook and and Google as ad platforms and stealing a lot of the ad advertising spend away from non social ads, so so display ads.

嗯。

Mhmm.

要理解品牌广告尤其是整个在线广告市场属于赢家通吃的类型，现在你必须具备足够规模才能与巨头抗衡，因为他们的定向投放能力极其精准——你甚至能定位到华盛顿24岁名叫Ben的踢踏舞爱好者，当然也可能不叫Ben...

And understanding that brand advertising in particular, and online advertising as a whole, is a winner take all type market, where you really need scale before you can rival the big guys now, because there's such excellent targeting that you have to be able to choose any bucket that could be incredibly narrow, you know, tap dancing, you know, 24 year olds in Washington named Ben, and not named Ben, but that that

但Facebook能找到这些人。

But Facebook could find those people.

对。

Right.

没错。

Right.

而且要有足够深的用户池。

And have a deep enough well.

所以这类业务具有相对较高的固定成本，需要巨大规模才能使商业模式真正运转。

And so so those are businesses that have a relatively high fixed cost and require massive scale to make the business actually work.

支付业务也是类似情况。

Payments are sort of the same thing.

嗯。

Mhmm.

我是说，PayPal确实需要达到巨大的交易量才能实现广泛普及，他们拥有一个惊人的飞轮效应——每个拥有PayPal账户的人既可以是资金的发送方也可以是接收方，从而逐渐习惯使用这个平台。

I mean, PayPal really needed massive volume before they could have wide adoption, and they have an incredible flywheel where every person that has a PayPal account can be a sender or a receiver of money and becomes comfortable using the platform.

所以当他们首次让某人完成一次发送或接收资金的操作后，就使得平台上其他所有人的使用体验都变得更有价值。

So the first time they get someone to send or receive money once, they make everyone else's experience more valuable.

这是一个规模化的平台，支付业务的利润率极其微薄，固定成本却非常高昂，尤其是在他们需要自建数据中心的年代，必须依靠庞大的交易量才能维持运营。

So it's a scale platform where, you know, it has razor thin margins, right, on on payments, and really large fixed costs, especially in those days where they were building data centers, and they'd need huge volumes to make it work.

这正是他们在eBay身上看到的模式，并且执行得非常成功。

That's something that they saw with eBay, and they they did really well.

而这种信念——虽然可能在当时看来完全疯狂，就像我们之前讨论的，如果PayPal保持独立运营可能根本无法实现——

And that that belief, which may have been completely crazy and and as we were talking about perhaps wouldn't have worked had PayPal remained an independent company.

但正是这种对达到规模效应以实现愿景的信念...没错。

But that belief that you can get to that scale to make that vision a reality Yeah.

你肯定是疯了。

You'd be insane.

你绝对得是个彻头彻尾的疯子。

You'd have to be completely insane.

再想想那些初创公司，我们刚刚列举了PayPal之后涌现的一批企业，真正做大的都是那些押注同样模式并最终胜出的。

And and you think about the startups again that we were just rattling off a bunch of names in sort of the generations that followed PayPal, the ones that became really really big are ones that made that same bet, you know, and won.

比如Uber。

You know, Uber.

对吧？

Right?

想象一下，在Uber之前，如果有人描绘这样一幅图景：你的平台上会有足够多的司机和乘客，在任何地理区域——不仅是旧金山，甚至是美国境外某个偏远小地方——只需按个按钮，附近就有司机在一分钟后出现，人们肯定会觉得你疯了。

Like imagine before Uber if you had painted a picture of a world where there are gonna be enough drivers in cars that are members of your platform and enough users, consumers of transportation on your platform in any given geographical area, not just San Francisco but like, you know, the middle of nowhere in, you know, some non you know, a country not in The US, that you could push a button and that driver would be right around the block and show up, you know, a minute later, you would've gotten laughed out of the room.

是啊。

Yeah.

是啊。

Yeah.

这其实是同样的道理。

And and it's the same thing.

就像PayPal早期向用户推销时说的：这是让任何人都能向他人转账的方式。

I mean, you could imagine pre users pitching PayPal, and it's like, well, it's the way for anybody to send anybody money.

然后有人问，你这是什么意思？

And someone says, what do you mean?

你就说，当每个人都用PayPal的时候。

And you're like, well, when everyone has PayPal.

就像，每个人都想超级方便。

Like, everyone wants to be super comfortable.

这是个递归论证。

It's recursive argument.

是啊。

Yeah.

要知道，正是这个同样的递归论证让很多人彻底栽了跟头。

And you know, it's the same recursive argument that lots of people completely fail at.

对吧？

Right?

你在每个初创企业首次活动上都能听到这种说法，对吧？

You hear this at every first time startup event, right?

就像有些人，他们唯一能想象的世界就是他们的服务无处不在的世界。

Like someone who goes, and the only world they imagine is the one where their service is pervasive.

然后他们会说，为什么它还不存在呢？

And they talk about like, why doesn't it just exist?

你知道，你可能听过——我不确定是否有人曾经推销过Uber——但就像，你可能听过十年前在创业周末有人推销Uber，他们会说，嗯，是的，这就像是，为什么它还不存在？

You know, you you could hear I don't know if somebody ever pitched Uber, but like, you could hear someone pitching Uber, you know, at ten years ago at a startup weekend, and they say, well, yeah, it's it's like, why doesn't it exist?

任何人都可以随时接你，因为你看到每个人车里都有这个，可以互相搭车。

Where anybody can just pick you up at any given time because you just see every single person has this in their car and can give each other a ride.

然后你会想，你到底要怎么实现这个目标？

And you're like, how on earth are you gonna get there?

而PayPal的神奇之处就在于他们找到了实现的方法。

And the magic of PayPal is they figured out how to get there.

嗯，我认为这很好地过渡到了我想讨论的另一件事——关于PayPal黑手党。

Well, I think this is this is a great segue into the other thing I wanted to talk about here about the PayPal mafia.

我认为这可能是他们对创业生态系统做出的最具影响力的事情，甚至超过我们之前讨论的所有其他事情。

That I think might, again you can make an argument might be the most impactful thing that they've contributed to the startup ecosystem even over and above all the other things we've talked about.

YouTube上有一段非常精彩的视频，主角是红杉资本合伙人Jim Goetz，这位杰出的风险投资家在斯坦福商学院发表演讲——这个地方在我心中有着特殊地位。

There's a really really great video on YouTube, of course, of Jim Goetz who's a partner at Sequoia, great great venture capitalist talking, speaking at at the business school at Stanford, which has has a fond place in my heart.

他谈到红杉会投资什么样的伟大公司时，提到了PayPal黑手党。他说PayPal校友群体最与众不同的特质是：他们在PayPal培养出了这种快速迭代产品的意愿和能力。

He's he's talking about what makes great companies that Sequoia would invest in and, he talks about the PayPal mafia and he says, you know, the one thing to him that really sets PayPal alumni apart from other people in the ecosystem is they learned at PayPal this ability, the willing both willingness and ability to iterate really quickly with a product.

敢于推出远未完成的产品，然后根据真实市场反馈疯狂迭代。

To put a product out there that is very far from finished and iterate like mad on it based on true market feedback.

他还特别强调，他们从不自欺欺人地曲解市场的真实反馈信号。

And he says, you know, not BS ing themselves about, like, what the actual signals from the market are.

这就是你如何能创建一个递归的，你知道的，平台，一个像那样的递归命题，就是你无法从一开始就设定好最终状态。

And that's how you can create a recursive, you know, platform, a recursive thesis like that, you know, is you can't start with, like, the end state.

你必须从一个非常非常小的想法开始，然后根据市场反馈一点一点地推进它。

You gotta start with a very very small idea, and then work on it bit by bit by bit based on market feedback.

是啊。

Yeah.

天啊，那个市场反馈的事情太难了，你写的每一行代码，或者你做的每一小块产品思考，一旦以任何形式固化下来，无论是实物、设计还是代码，都像是你背负的负担。是啊。

And God, that market feedback thing is is so hard where every line of code that you write, or every little piece of product thinking that you do that then gets solidified in any form, be it physical or design or code, it's like a burden you carry Yeah.

从那一刻起，你创造得越多，负担就越重，行动就越发不灵活。

From that point forward, where the more you've created, the heavier it is, and the less you feel agile to move away from it.

是啊。

And so Yep.

我对这类公司里的人充满敬意，他们能快速写出东西并推向市场，迅速理解市场信号，几天内就能判断‘这其实不对’，然后删掉一半内容，加入新部分，又说‘这也不对’，就这样不断调整定位。

I just have tremendous respect for people at companies like this that can write something, and put it out there and understand market signals quickly, and within days say, that's actually not the thing, and rip half of it out and put a new piece in and say, that's not the thing either, and then just keep repositioning.

因为我觉得，我们总会对自己创造的东西产生情感依赖，人们会对自己的愿景投入深厚感情。

Because I think that, you know, we just get emotionally attached to what we make and people will get really emotionally attached to their vision.

如果你能持续做出响应，这确实是种非常了不起且珍贵的技能。

And if you if you can just keep responding, it's a it's a really incredible and really valuable skill.

而我

And I

我认为这种能力就是——借用我妻子喜欢的一句话——同时把握住这两件事。

think that's the the skill is is holding both of those things to borrow a phrase from my wife, she loves this phrase.

同时将这两件事都记在心上。

Holding both of those things in your head at the same time.

一是对你所见的未来愿景的绝对奉献与承诺。

One is absolute dedication and commitment to a vision of the future that you see.

你知道的，你对未来的递归式愿景。

You know, your recursive vision about the future.

二是完全不带偏见，或者说，对如何实现目标没有任何先入为主的观念。

And two, an utter lack of bias or you know, predetermined thought on how you're gonna get there.

嗯。

Mhmm.

并且愿意接受产品与市场匹配探索过程中所需的随机路径。

And be willing to take, you know, the random walk, that, that you need to take of of product and product market fit discovery to get there.

是的。

Yeah.

这是个挑战。

That's a challenge.

确实如此。

It is.

现在正是感谢我们节目的好朋友ServiceNow的好时机。

Now is a great time to thank good friend of the show, ServiceNow.

我们曾向听众介绍过ServiceNow令人惊叹的创业故事，以及他们如何成为过去十年表现最佳的公司之一，但听众们对ServiceNow具体做什么提出了一些疑问。

We have talked to listeners about ServiceNow's amazing origin story and how they've been one of the best performing companies the last decade, but we've gotten some questions from listeners about what ServiceNow actually does.

所以今天，我们就来解答这个问题。

So today, we are gonna answer that question.

首先，最近媒体经常用到一个说法，称ServiceNow是企业的'AI操作系统'（带引号）。

Well, to start, a phrase that has been used often here recently in the press is that ServiceNow is the, quote, unquote, AI operating system for the enterprise.

但具体来说，ServiceNow二十二年前创立时只专注于自动化。

But to make that more concrete, ServiceNow started twenty two years ago focused simply on automation.

他们将实体文书工作转化为软件流程，最初是为企业内部的IT部门服务。

They turned physical paperwork into software workflows, initially for the IT department within enterprises.

仅此而已。

That was it.

随着时间的推移，他们在这个平台上不断扩展，开始处理更强大、更复杂的任务。

And over time, they built on this platform going to more powerful and complex tasks.

他们将服务范围从单纯的IT部门扩展到人力资源、财务、客户服务、现场运营等多个部门。

They were expanding from serving just IT to other departments like HR, finance, customer service, field operations, and more.

在过去二十年的发展过程中，ServiceNow已经完成了连接企业各个角落所需的繁琐基础工作，为实现自动化铺平了道路。

And in the process over the last two decades, ServiceNow has laid all the tedious groundwork necessary to connect every corner of the enterprise and enable automation to happen.

所以当人工智能时代来临时，从定义上来说AI本质上就是高度复杂的任务自动化。

So when AI arrived, well, AI kinda just by definition is massively sophisticated task automation.

那么是谁已经搭建好了支持这种自动化的企业级平台和连接体系呢？

And who had already built the platform and the connective tissue with enterprises to enable that automation?

ServiceNow。

ServiceNow.

那么回答这个问题：如今的ServiceNow是做什么的？

So to answer the question, what does ServiceNow do today?

他们说连接并赋能每个部门时，我们是认真的。

We mean it when they say they connect and power every department.

IT和人力资源部门用它来管理全公司的人员、设备和软件许可证。

IT and HR use it to manage people, devices, software licenses across the company.

客户服务部门使用ServiceNow来处理诸如检测支付失败，并将其内部路由至正确的团队或流程以解决问题。

Customer service uses ServiceNow for things like detecting payment failures and routing to the right team or process internally to solve it.

供应链组织则利用它进行产能规划，整合其他部门的数据和计划，确保所有人步调一致。

Or the supply chain org uses it for capacity planning, integrating with data and plans from other departments to ensure that everybody's on the same page.

无需再在不同应用间来回切换，重复输入相同数据。

No more swivel chairing between apps to enter the same data multiple times in different places.

就在最近，ServiceNow推出了AI助手，任何岗位的员工都能创建AI助手来处理繁琐事务，让人力得以专注于更高层次的工作。

And just recently, ServiceNow launched AI agents so that anyone working in any job can spin up an AI agent to handle the tedious stuff, freeing up humans for bigger picture work.

ServiceNow去年入选了《财富》全球最受赞赏公司榜单和《快公司》最佳创新者职场，正是源于这一愿景。

ServiceNow was named to Fortune's world's most admired companies list last year and Fast Company's best workplace for innovators last year, and it's because of this vision.

若您希望在业务各个环节都能利用ServiceNow的规模与速度优势，请访问servicenow.com/acquired，只需告知是Ben和David推荐即可。

If you wanna take advantage of the scale and speed of ServiceNow in every corner of your business, go to servicenow.com/acquired and just tell them that Ben and David sent you.

感谢ServiceNow。

Thanks, ServiceNow.

该给它打分了？

Time to grade it?

嗯。

Yeah.

我想我们可以给它评分了。

I think we can grade it.

这个案例评分起来很有意思，因为我们节目贯穿始终的一个主题是：那些获得最高评分的收购案例，收购方都遵循了'让团队保持独立'的原则。

So this is a really interesting one, to grade because, you know, one of the themes that I think has been pretty pervasive throughout the show that we've done is that the best acquisitions, that we've given the highest grades to have been ones where, you know, the the acquirer follows the mantra of, you know, leave the team alone.

核心在于人。

It's all about the people.

让他们放手去做。

Let them do their thing.

记住，不要破坏原有的魔力。

Know, don't don't mess with the magic.

就像皮克斯案例是反过来的——皮克斯入主后反而让迪士尼团队重拾创作魔力。

You know, we heard that with Pixar, where it was it was the reverse.

类似案例还有Instagram，以及Ed Fries提到的Bungie。

It was like Pixar coming in and and and leaving the Disney people, you know, or getting letting the Disney get back to feeling the creative magic, you know, with Instagram, with Bungie that Ed Fries was talking about.

这完全是相反的。

This is a total opposite.

就像eBay进来后一通瞎搞，结果人都走光了。

Like, eBay comes in and really mucks around and everybody leaves.

我在想这是否是那个时代的特征。

And and I wonder if that's just characteristic of the time period.

我是说，我们拆解过的其他收购案例也有那个时代的特征，一切都是关于整合，'我们喜欢你们的产品，现在该按我们的节奏来了'。

I mean, other acquisitions that we've, like, ripped apart have that characteristic too from that time period, where the it's it's all about integration, it's all about great, we like your product, now it's time to, you know, beat move to the beat of our drum.

我觉得直到最近企业才真正明白'别去干预'这个道理。

And I think it's really only recently that companies have figured out that leave it alone thing.

是的。

Yep.

所谓的'Facebook式收购'。

The the quote unquote Facebook style acquisition.

Tech Republic文章里David Sachs还有句名言，他谈到收购后的第一次会议，就是那个整合会议。

There's another great quote from from David Sachs in the Tech Republic article where he's talking about the the first meeting that happened after the acquisition, the, you know, integration meeting.

eBay团队把PayPal所有关键人物召集到一个房间，预订了三小时的会议，还带着一份137页的PPT演示文稿。

And the eBay team, you know, gets all the key people from PayPal together in a room and they book a three hour meeting and they show up with, like, a 137 page PowerPoint deck.

PayPal团队的反应是：第一，我们这辈子从没开过三小时的会议；

And the PayPal guys are like, a, we've never had a three hour meeting in our lives.

第二，PPT是什么东西？

B, what is PowerPoint?

懂吗？

You know?

在会议结束时，David Sacks说，天啊，如果我们留在这里，我们得专门成立一个部门来做PPT，就为了能和这些人沟通。

And at the end of it, David Sacks says, man, we're gonna have to if we stay here, we're gonna have to create a whole new department just to do PowerPoint just so that we can communicate with these guys.

哦，天哪。

Oh, man.

我提到他们需要的一个产品，以及一个与他们文化完全不合拍的团队。

I talk about a product that they needed and a team that was just completely incompatible with their culture.

所以评估这次收购的有趣之处在于，它打破了所有规则，却为eBay、eBay股东乃至整个硅谷初创企业生态系统创造了巨大的价值。

And so what's what's interesting about grading this one is like breaks all the rules and yet creates huge huge amount of value for eBay, eBay shareholders, for the entire you know Silicon Valley startup ecosystem as a whole.

考虑到所有这些因素，我几乎要给eBay这次收购打个B+的评分。

You know, I think taking all of this into account, it's almost like, you know, I think I'm gonna net out at like a b plus for eBay on the acquisition.

可以说相当不错了。

You know, like pretty great.

我是说，这创造了价值数百亿的股东价值。

I mean, created a huge billions and billions of dollars worth of shareholder value.

但如果他们处理方式不同，本可以实现更大价值吗？

But, you know, had they handled it differently, could they have realized much more value?

当然可以。

Yes.

但若真那样做了，我们所有人都会因此损失惨重。

But also if they'd done that, we all would be so much poorer for it, you know.

正是因为那次出走，因为PayPal黑帮，我们才在生态系统中获得了这么多其他东西。

Because of the the exodus that happened, because of the PayPal mafia, we have so much else in the ecosystem.

是啊。

Yeah.

我的意思是，为什么要这样看呢，比如，当我们讨论这些时，我理解你的观点，我很感激这些事，我听到了。

I mean, why look at it this way, like, when we're talking about so I see you, I appreciate those things, I hear you.

我现在感到非常受重视。

I feel very appreciated right now.

是的。

Yeah.

好的。

Okay.

让我们从eBay作为一家公司的角度来审视这个问题。

Let's look at this from the the lens of eBay as a company.

对吧？

Right?

比如，对eBay公司而言，进行这次收购是件好事吗？

Like, was this good for eBay as a company to make this acquisition?

通常我会尝试这样构建框架：比如我们看看苹果收购Authenteq后，能够以这种方式整合Touch ID传感器，这对其现有产品形成了增值，其价值远超Authenteq独立所能实现的。

Normally, would try and frame this in terms of like, well, let's look at, you know, Apple acquiring Authenteq and being able to do Touch ID sensors in this way that is additive to their existing product in a way that is a of a much greater value than anything Authenteq could do on their own.

对吧？

Right?

就像某种整合进产品并创造协同效应的方式，让核心产品通过收购实现数倍提升。

Like something where it's it's integrating into the product and creating, you know, synergies between the two products such that they can take their core product and make it, you know, a multiple of the acquisition better.

就这次收购而言，我不认为它给eBay市场带来了巨大增值。

In this case, like, I don't know that it added tremendously to eBay's marketplace.

实际上Keith Rebois指出了一个关键点：他们当时能预见eBay的增长将趋于平缓，因此不得不进行出售，因为他们还没有其他增长策略。

And actually, there's a a point that Keith Rebois points out where they had visibility into eBay's growth, and they predicted that eBay's growth was gonna plateau, and that they actually needed needed to make the sale because they were like, we don't have a different growth strategy yet.

作为上市公司，人们会担心我们如果...

And people are gonna be concerned, we're a public company, people are gonna be concerned about us if our

我们完全依赖eBay。

We're solely dependent on eBay.

他们的增长正在停滞。

Their growth is plateauing.

我们看到的事实是，eBay确实是一家大公司。

What we've seen, eBay is indeed a major company.

2004年时，他们的净收入是32亿美元。

From 2004, they were doing $3,200,000,000 in net revenue.

如今，他们的收入达到了179亿。

Today, they're doing 17.9.

他们确实实现了增长。

Like, they they've grown.

他们现在发展得非常好。

They're they're they're doing great.

但他们并非超级巨头，我不认为其增长可归功于PayPal。

But they aren't a a mega behemoth, and I don't think that their growth can be attributed to PayPal.

不过，我们是从当时持有PayPal或eBay股票的人的视角来看待这个问题。

However, we're looking at this through the lens of a person who owned PayPal or eBay stock at the time of the acquisition.

作为一家企业，eBay这样做是否明智？

Like, was it good for eBay as a corporation to do this?

天啊。

Holy crap.

绝对如此。

Absolutely.

毫无疑问。

Absolutely.

eBay像野草般疯长，最终规模甚至超过了他们原有的业务。

EBay eBay grew like a weed, and and grew to be larger than their existing business.

所以从公司角度看，这是个绝佳赌注——他们实质上收购了一个能为他们开辟全新第二业务线的产品。

So, you know, as a company, it was a killer bet because effectively, they acquired a product that gave them an entire second business line when their Yep.

他们最初的业务线本不会成为主流。

Their initial business line wasn't gonna be the thing.

没错。

Yep.

这绝对是加分项。

This is this is an a plus.

就像这样

Like this is

是的。

Yeah.

这很有趣，就像，如果按照我们的预测，假设当时的eBay高管们并没有将其视为一条业务线，而是看作一项功能技术收购。

It's interest it's like, you know, if you were to if if our projection, let's assume it's correct that eBay executives at the time weren't thinking about this as a business line, were thinking about it as a, you know, feature technology acquisition.

那么，也许我的B+评级还能成立。

Then yeah, maybe my my you know, b plus rating would hold.

但就实际财务结果而言，对吧？

But in terms of like, you know, this is the actual financial outcome Right.

绝对是大获全胜。

Massive home run.

更不用说我们一直在讨论的整个生态系统带来的所有附加好处了。

Not to mention all the ancillary benefits to the whole ecosystem as we've been talking about.

没错。

Yeah.

确实。

Yeah.

我是说，eBay的收购对世界总体来说是有益的。

I mean, eBay acquisition was generally good for the world.

对吧？

Right?

就GDP而言，这对美国总体来说是有利的。

It's generally good for The United States in terms of GDP What's

对通用汽车有利的就是对美国有利的。

good for General Motors is good for America.

难道不是这样吗？

Ain't that the truth?

Cruise的收购将在未来剧集中到来。

Cruise acquisition coming in future episodes.

哦，天哪。

Oh, man.

也许吧。

Perhaps.

希望如此。

I hope so.

是啊。

Yeah.

没错。

Yeah.

我是说，我在试着想其他例子，就是...

I mean, I I'm trying to think of other examples where yeah.

这几乎就像我们评价皮克斯那样。

It's it's almost like like how we rated the the Pixar.

呃，不对。

Well, no.

因为我确实反馈到迪士尼业务中，让它重焕生机，再次伟大起来。

Because I actually did feed back into the the the Disney business to to reinvigorate that and make it great again.

你还能想到哪些例子？就是公司当时如日中天，做了收购，结果发现那家公司的核心产品其实...你知道的...不会成为重点，然后他们收购了个巨头。

What other examples can you think of of a company that was flying high at the time, made an acquisition, and then it turned out that company's core product was like, you know, not gonna be the thing for that company, and then they acquired like a mega giant.

是啊。

Yeah.

或者说一个即将成为巨头的公司，他们确实...

Or a to be mega giant that they yeah.

而且他们确实推动了这一点。

And they they certainly propelled it there.

我不认为eBay或PayPal能靠自己做到这样。

I don't think eBay or I don't think PayPal would have done this on their own.

我觉得就像我们之前说的，他们迟早会被收购。

I think that at some point, like we talked about, they were gonna get acquired.

没错。

Yeah.

这很有趣。

It's interesting.

我是说，天哪，可能是Instagram吧。

I mean, gosh, maybe Instagram.

我是说，杰瑞对那件事还持观望态度。

I mean, Jerry's still out on that.

是啊。

Yeah.

不过，回顾我们之前的数据，我想这又是另一份分析师报告。

Although, to to check-in on our previous numbers on that, they I think it's yet another analyst report.

虽然我们没有确切的数字，但预计今年收入能达到30亿美元？

I don't think we have hard numbers on this, but it's it's predicted to do $3,000,000,000 in is it revenue this year?

我刚看到一条消息。

I I just saw a thing.

你知道，几年后以十亿美元收购的案例。

You know, on a billion dollar acquisition a couple years later.

相当不错。

Not too shabby.

那真是笔划算的买卖。

That was a great buy.

是啊。

Yeah.

不过也并非一帆风顺。

Not without its challenges though.

我是说，你知道的，不。

I mean, you know No.

有意思的是，我们以后可以做一期关于Snapchat的节目，讲讲收购Snapchat失败的故事。

It's interesting that we could do an episode at some point on Snapchat, on the failed acquisition of Snapchat.

对。

Yeah.

我们应该

We should

做一期。

do that.

那会很有趣的。

That would be that would be a fun one.

是啊。

Yeah.

我们可以比较一下Instagram和Snapchat的异同。

And we could compare and contrast Instagram and Snapchat.

我们可以。

We could.

我们可以。

We could.

但在那之前，你想先处理专项部分吗？

But until then, do you wanna do the carve out?

哦，好啊。

Oh, yeah.

专项部分。

Carve out.

开始吧。

Let's do it.

好的。

Alright.

太棒了。

Sweet.

你想先来吗？

You wanna go first?

我来。

I do.

我来。

I do.

既然我们知道你们喜欢听播客，我觉得我应该选一个播客节目。

So since we know you guys like listening to podcasts, I felt like I should pick a podcast.

这周比尔·西蒙斯的播客有一期精彩节目，正好接续我上次推荐大家阅读《The Ringer》的建议。

And this week was an incredible episode of the Bill Simmons podcast to follow-up my my recommendation to to read the ringer.

他邀请了克里斯·萨卡做客。

He had Chris Saka on.

哦，不错。

Oh, nice.

哦，是《世界碰撞》那期吧。

Oh, was World's colliding.

那期太棒了。

It was so great.

是啊。

Yeah.

因为比尔简直就是顶尖记者。

Because Bill's just like killer journalist.

我是说，他写过奥巴马的专访，我记得登在GQ上，简直精彩绝伦。

I mean, like, he has a written interview with Obama, I think he was in GQ, that's just awesome.

比尔既能聊体育，又能谈政治，还能讨论科技，他采访克里斯·萨卡的那期真是精彩纷呈。

Like, Bill can talk about sports, he can talk about politics, he can talk about technology, and him interviewing Chris Saka is just spectacular.

我才听了几分钟就完全被吸引住了。

I think I was a few minutes in and I was just completely, completely roped in.

他们无所不谈，比如克里斯与科比·布莱恩特的会面，科比正在投资初创企业，而克里斯让他经历了严苛考验，这里没有双关的意思。

They talk about everything from like Chris's meetings with Kobe Bryant, where Kobe is investing in startups, and like Chris put him through the ringer, like, No pun intended.

克里斯真的，他当时的态度是，好吧，一个想涉足投资的明星运动员，挺酷的。

Chris really, he was like, okay, cool, celebrity athlete who wants to get into investing.

而且揭示了很多有趣的内容。

And there's so much interesting stuff revealed.

我得去深入研究一下，但科比其实不怎么睡觉。

I have to go do more research on this, but Kobe actually doesn't sleep.

他们透露科比是个——我确定他可能每天只睡几小时——但根据描述，这家伙白天正常生活，整晚都在熬夜阅读，努力学习和完成克里斯给他的所有练习。

Kobe, they reveal, is a dude that I'm sure he maybe sleeps like in a few hours or something, but like the way they describe it is like the dude, you know, he's his his day life and then all night he was staying up reading and and trying to like learn and go through the exercises that have everything that Chris gave him.

所以有这段关于科比的片段。

So there's this Kobe segment.

他们聊到优步创立时的即兴讨论会，以及这一切是如何成型的。

They talk about the founding of Uber and the jam sessions when they're sitting around and how all that fell into place.

谈到推特早期岁月，关于克里斯下的赌注，当他穷困潦倒时开始日内交易股票，赚了400万美元又全部赔光，还背上了巨额债务。

Talk about early days at Twitter about bets that Chris made about when Chris was dirt poor and then started day trading and made $4,000,000 day trading stocks and then lost it all and then went into massive debt.

总之，这期节目真的太棒了。

Then the whole it's just like, it's an awesome episode.

我会在节目备注里放上链接，比尔·西蒙斯播客那期邀请克里斯·萨卡的节目非常精彩。

So I'll link it in the show notes, but the the Bill Simmons podcast featuring Chris Saka is excellent.

精彩。

Excellent.

我得去听听看。

Gonna have to give that a listen.

是啊。

Yeah.

我这周的推荐有个前提——我才读了大概三分之一，这是本几年前出版的书，一直在我待读清单上。

So my carve out for the week, caveat that I'm only about a third of the way through it, but is a book that came out a couple of years ago that had been on my reading list.

多亏了有声书的便利，我终于开始读了。

And I finally got around to, thanks to the magic of audio books.

书名叫《反脆弱》，作者是纳西姆·塔勒布。

A book called Anti Fragile by Nassim Tlaib.

我刚读完《黑天鹅》。

I just finished The Black Swan.

哦，不错。

Oh, nice.

这是我读的第一本纳西姆·塔勒布的书，之后我想把他的其他作品也读完。

So this is my first Nassim Tlaib book and I wanna I wanna read the rest of them after this.

这本书非常出色。

It is excellent.

你觉得《黑天鹅》怎么样？

What do think of The Black Swan?

挺好的。

It's good.

像这类书一样，我觉得前半部分已经把观点讲透了。

Like a lot of books like that, I felt like the first half covered it.

是啊。

Yeah.

但确实非常有趣。

But like really interesting.

我也强烈推荐这本书。

I highly recommend it also.

嗯，虽然我还没读过《黑天鹅》，但关于《反脆弱》有几点很有趣。

Well, what's interesting, not having read the Black Swan yet, but a couple things about antifragile.

第一，纳西姆就像个超级明星。

One, Nassim is like he's like a baller.

他特别搞笑。

Like, he's hilarious.

我的意思是，他非常聪明，但他写作风格就像...这人有着巨大的自我，写得好像完全不在乎任何事。

I mean, he's incredibly smart, but he writes like, he's also got like a giant ego and writes like, this is a guy who just like does not give a crap about anything.

他的自负在《黑天鹅》里也表现得相当明显。

His ego shows through quite a bit in Black Swan too.

是啊。

Yeah.

但有趣的是，他实际上——整本《反脆弱》的核心论点就是存在这样一种观点，这让我强烈联想到《从0到1》以及本期节目中Peter Thiel关于'秘密'的理念。

But what's interesting is he actually, so so the whole thesis of antifragile is that there's this, know, it reminded me a lot of Zero to One and fittingly for this episode of Peter Thiel idea about, you know, the idea of secrets.

世界上存在一些如同基本法则般支配着一切的事物，而人们却未能理解或意识到它们。

That there are these things about the world that are like fundamental laws that govern it that just like people don't understand or realize.

因此，Nassim提出了'反脆弱'的概念——几千年来人们认为脆弱的对立面是坚固，

And so Nassim talks about this concept of anti fragility that like we know about things that are fragile and for millennia people thought the opposite of fragile was robust.

那些你知道的、在压力下不会损坏的耐用物品。

Things that you know are durable and don't break when exposed to stress.

但事实证明那只是中性状态。

But it turns out that's just like a neutral thing.

脆弱的对立面应该是那些在压力下反而变得更强大的事物。

Like the opposite of fragile is something that gets stronger when exposed to stress.

举例来说，在某种程度上人体就是如此——

And so like an example would be the human body to a certain extent.

你知道，通过锻炼你会变得更强壮。

You know, you exercise and you get stronger.

例如，另一个例子也存在于生物学中，疫苗的概念就是如此——接触少量毒素、毒药或病毒会让你对病毒产生更强的抵抗力。

Example, another example would be also within biology, you know, the concept of vaccines, where being exposed to a small amount a toxin or a poison or a virus will then make you stronger against the virus.

总之，如果你开始以这种方式观察世界，就会发现到处都是这样的例子。

Anyway, and if you start looking at the world this way, there are all these examples of this.

再举一个与纳西姆的自我相关的例子，他说实际上信息是具有反脆弱性的，如果你仔细想想。

Then yet another example bringing back to Nassim's ego, he says actually information is anti fragile if you think about it.

他提出：要让尽可能多的人听到你的信息，最好的方法是什么？

And he's like what's the best way to get your message heard by as many people as possible?

你应该告诉所有人这是个秘密。

You should tell everybody it's a secret.

然后你应该尽量让它充满争议，尽量让更多人攻击你，因为这样人们就会听说它，觉得非常有趣，并想要了解相关内容。

And and then you should try and make it as controversial as possible and you should try and get as many people as possible to hate on you because then people are gonna hear about it and it's gonna be really interesting and people are gonna wanna read about it.

这就是让你的信息传播开来的方法。

And that's how you get disseminated.

如果你想确保信息确实能传播，你就要表现得非常随和，并告诉所有人这非常重要。

And if you wanna make sure your information does disseminated, you wanna be like really agreeable and and tell everybody it's really important.