第二十六集：漫威

克里斯托弗·里夫，谁能忘了他？

Christopher Reeve, who can forget?

我们其实早就不算新人了，但你想想，像2009年《钢铁侠》上映时，漫威工作室就狂揽了五亿八千万美元，这规模在当时可没谁敢想。

It's it's not like we were new to this, but, you know, like, in in the world today of, like, you know, the or even 2009, Iron Man grossed $580,000,000 within Marvel Studios.

那时候还没到这种程度呢。

Like, with it wasn't that scale yet.

那时候可不是每个卖座大片都非得是超级英雄片。

It wasn't like every single blockbuster at the at the box office is going to be a a a superhero film.

挺有意思的是，到底是什么变了，让超级英雄电影一下子成了片方稳赚不赔的香饽饽？

So it's interesting to think about, like, what what changed that that, like, all of a sudden caused these, superhero movies to become more and more of a sure thing for the studios to make.

是啊。

Yeah.

我也不太清楚。

I don't know.

而且我觉得，这事儿也正好跟超人和蝙蝠侠电影的时期对上了——我小时候就一直这么觉得。

And it also kinda coincided well, I think the the Superman and the Batman movies were always at least I remember kinda growing up thinking about it.

对的

Oh, yeah.

我还记得那时候的蝙蝠侠系列电影，

Like, I remember the Batman movies when

我

I

我还小着呢。

was a kid.

不过我记得那时候也就只有这两大IP是DC旗下的头部系列了

But I think it was just those two were, like, the big franchises, the DC franchises.

而且这么多年来，华纳时代一直握有DC的版权，现在也还是，虽说不是所有时期都这样，但过去几十年确实是

And and DC, I believe not always, but for certainly through all of these decades was owned by Time Warner and still is.

所以背靠这么大的传媒巨头，他们有足够的资源去支撑拍这些高成本的大片

So they were part of a big major media company and had the resources to make these, you know, big budget movies.

而漫威之前从来没有过这个条件，一直到这个超级英雄的新时代来临才翻身

Whereas Marvel, don't think ever did until, until until this era.

所以你看到这些超级英雄系列，虽然一直有大量粉丝，但还没像超人和蝙蝠侠那样真正 mainstream。

And so you see these superhero franchises that had been obviously had huge followings, but weren't like the mainstream, you know, to the extent that Superman and Batman were.

对。

Right.

现在它们都搞起了大片阵容。

Now get these big film slates.

我觉得另一件事也在发生，这算是某种开端吧——我不确定这两者之间有多少因果关系。

I I think the other thing that was happening is this is sort of the dawn and and I don't know how much one led to the other.

差不多就是好莱坞‘续集成灾’的开端。

Sort of the dawn of, like, the sequelitis in in Hollywood.

而超级英雄电影，天然就特别适合拍续集。

And and superhero movies, of course, franchises lend themselves so well to sequels.

没错。

Yep.

没错。

Yep.

确实如此。

Very true.

我的意思是，从1939年到现在，这些漫画IP每一本都出了一集又一集，没完没了。

I mean, as as ever since, you know, 1939, every single one of these these comic book franchises has issue after issue after issue.

这本来就是连续剧嘛。

They're serials.

对啊。

Yep.

所以在好莱坞特别需要稳当的IP来拍续集的年代，还有什么比漫画更合适的素材呢？

So it's perfect for, you know, in a world where Hollywood needs dependable franchises to make sequels, you know, what better place to look to than comic books?

没错。

Yep.

对啊。

Yep.

所以2005年，当几家制片厂已经靠漫威IP拍出几部大卖电影后，漫威自己干脆搞了个漫威影业，打算亲自下场拍电影。

So in 2005, after, you know, a few of these, huge successful movies based on Marvel IP have come out from other studios, Marvel actually takes a really ambitious step to start Marvel Studios to make movies themselves.

于是他们从美林证券获得了5.25亿美元的债务融资。

And so they raise 525,000,000 in in debt in a credit facility from Merrill Lynch.

讽刺的是，就在美林证券在金融危机中破产前不久。

Ironically, like, right before Merrill Lynch went bankrupt in the in the in the recession.

但他们从美林搞到了电影融资平台，打造了自梦工厂时代以来首个真正意义上的大型独立好莱坞制片公司。

But they they get a film financing vehicle from from Merrill and create the really the first kind of major independent Hollywood studio since kind of the DreamWorks era.

这可是个了不起的大事。

This was a this was a pretty big deal.

是啊。

Yeah.

挺有意思的是，他们当初只是随便试试，没想到很快就成了公司最核心的业务。

And it's interesting to to think that, you know, that this was something they just sort of started and ultimately became, like, very quickly the largest part of their business.

没错。

Absolutely.

对。

Yeah.

所以，有意思的是，他们2005到2006年宣布这个计划的时候，

So the and and also interesting, you know, they sort of when they announced this, this was in 2005, 2006 when they were getting this set up.

他们说打算先推出单部电影，打造独立的系列，比如《钢铁侠》和《绿巨人》，这两部正好是他们最先上映的，然后把所有这些系列串联成一部跨界大片，

They announced that the plan was that they were gonna release individual films of gonna individual franchises, Iron Man and The Hulk, which were the first two movies that they end up releasing, create these franchises, and then they were gonna tie them all together into a crossover film.

当然，他们后来真的这么做了，

So which obviously they did For

复仇者联盟的影子，

Shadow of the Avengers.

没错，

Yes.

就是这么回事，

Exactly.

但这个计划从一开始就是这么定的，有意思的是，迪士尼一直没插手，任由他们自己运作这个布局，

But but that was the plan all along and interesting that Disney really, you know, has been hands off and let them let them operate that plan.

是的。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

而且你想啊，他们当初做这个决定、成立工作室的时候，早就把好多角色的电影版权授权给其他公司了。

And thinking about so, in in making this move and starting the studio, they'd already licensed out so many of their characters to to other studios for, to make films and distribute.

所以当你想想，

And so when you think about And

他们最核心的角色啊。

they're they're really their top tier characters.

没错。

Right.

对啊。

Right.

我来列一下那些 Marvel 已经没法自己拍电影的角色吧。

So let I'll I'll I'll list the, the characters that were no longer eligible for Marvel to make their own films around.

蜘蛛侠、神奇四侠、银影侠、金刚狼，还有整个X战警。

Spider Man, The Fantastic Four, Silver Surfer, Wolverine, the rest of the X Men

对。

Yep.

死侍。

Deadpool.

没错。

Yeah.

还有别的角色。

The there there's others.

但你想想，真没想到啊。

But when you think about, like, wow.

好吧。

Okay.

所以那些角色都不能用，当时他们剩下的都算是二流角色了。

So all those are off limits, and what they've got is sort of, like, the second tier at the time.

现在回头看，这些角色早就火了，对吧。

Like, we don't think of them now because they're huge, you know Right.

那些都是超级大片，比如雷神、浩克，

Gigantic, blockbuster wins, but, like, Thor, Hulk,

钢铁侠。

Iron Man.

对。

Yep.

他们只能拿这些角色来搭班子，整个工作室就这么建起来了。

Like, that like, that's who they're left to work with, and then that's what they create the the studio around.

对。

Yep.

完全没错。

Totally.

钢铁侠其实已经是他们当时能拿到的最好的资源了。

And, and Iron Man was really, that was really the best that they had available.

而且第一部电影就是它，2008年初就上映了。

And that was the first film, that they made, and it came out in early two thousand eight.

结果成了小罗伯特·唐尼的个人秀，太精彩了。

And it ended up being I mean, Robert tour de force from Robert Downey Junior.

我还记得当年在影院看这部电影。

I remember seeing it in theaters.

《钢铁侠》第一部真是经典中的经典。

Such a great movie, the original Iron Man.

没错。

Absolutely.

其实前一年，我记得应该是2009年。

And, actually, the year before, I think that was o nine.

但2008年他们还出了《绿巨人》，票房才勉强达到《钢铁侠》的一半。

And and in 2008, they had The Hulk, which which was about half of of what that film gross.

但那部电影是……

But that was a

其实这两部都是2008年上映的。

They actually both came out in 2008.

呃。

And Ah.

他们其实是同时拍的。

They came out, like they they made them concurrently.

《钢铁侠》其实比《绿巨人》早几个月上映，哦。

Iron Man actually came out a couple months before Hulk Oh.

我记得维基上是这么写的，而维基从来都对。

I believe, at least according to Wikipedia, and which is always right.

《钢铁侠》那年五月上映，票房快六亿美元，跟《复仇者联盟》《钢铁侠3》《冰雪奇缘》这些迪士尼大片，还有《原力觉醒》这种动不动就十亿、快二十亿的片子比，听起来真不算啥。

And, yeah, Iron Man made, May, at the box office, so almost 600,000,000, which is, compared to films like the Avengers and, well, Iron Man three, and Frozen and other Disney movies and, certainly, The Force Awakens that make a billion or even close to 2,000,000,000, that doesn't sound like a lot.

但那时候，这已经是天文数字了，哪怕才过了几年。

But at the time, that was a huge amount even though it was only a few years ago.

这是个新时代的开端。

That's the beginning of an era.

真正意义上的超级英雄大片时代的起点。

Beginning really beginning of the superhero blockbuster era.

没错，说得对。

That's right.

这也相当于给所有有意收购漫威股票的买家释放了一个信号：这家公司有了全新的估值逻辑，全都靠这些票房数据，和他们之前的其他业务完全没关系了。

And and it sort of signals to, like, any potential, buyer of, of Marvel stock, like, there's a new way to value this company, and it's based on these numbers and has nothing to do with any of the other lines of business they're in.

对的。

Yep.

所以就像你刚才说的，绿巨人的电影没过多久就上映了，虽然没达到钢铁侠那样的爆火程度，但整体票房成绩也相当不错了。

So as as you mentioned, The Hulk comes out shortly thereafter and isn't the huge success that Iron Man is, but it's it's a pretty pretty successful movie.

《绿巨人》全球票房不到3亿，成绩也相当不错，这其实证明了只要片子拍得好，哪怕不是顶级IP的超级英雄电影，观众也愿意买单，大家真的对这类内容买账。

Makes, just under 300,000,000, and is very successful and kinda proves that audiences are interested in this kind of content and will come out even for, you know, non top tier characters if you can make good movies.

所以说

So

之后到了2009年，其实最早漫威和美银美林合作的时候，计划是要拍五部超级英雄电影的。

the next year in 2009, before I believe there were I believe they were intended to be five films on the slate that, that Marvel did with Merrill Lynch.

可还没等到后续的片子推出，迪士尼那边就出了个大新闻：2009年8月31号，迪士尼CEO鲍勃·伊格宣布，迪士尼要以42亿美元的价格收购漫威。现在回头看，当初珀尔马特收购漫威的价格，和这个数字比起来反差特别大。

But before any of the following ones can come out, 08/31/2009, blockbuster deal, Bob Iger and Walt and Walt Disney Company announced that they're gonna acquire Marvel for $4,200,000,000, which is quite a lot when you think back to the to when Pearlman bought Disney.

没错，那是八十年代末，不过那时候——

Granted, it was in in the late eighties, but it

已经破产了。

was bankruptcy court.

不是的。

No.

根本不是。

No.

珀尔曼是在八十年代末从新世界娱乐公司手里买下漫威的。

Pearlman bought it Pearlman bought it from, in the late eighties from, New World Entertainment.

价格还不到一亿美元。

It was less than 100,000,000.

所以你看，二十年后，我们谈的却是四十二亿美元。

So, you know, here we are sorta twenty years later, and we're talking 4,200,000,000.

对。

Yep.

是的

Yep.

有趣的是，那段时间根本没出过什么真正重要的新IP。

And it's interesting that, like, it's there's there was not a single new piece of intellectual property that mattered between those years.

对

Yeah.

那些角色早就存在了，真正让价值翻了四十多倍的，是找到了全新的方式来运营这些老IP。

Like, all of those characters had already been created, and it was really all about a new way to leverage that same intellectual property that made it, what, 40 times 40 plus times more valuable over that span of time.

没错

Yeah.

太有意思了

Super interesting.

说到底，还是靠那些电影。

I mean, it really was it really was the films.

是的

Yeah.

是的。

Yeah.

为了让大家有个概念，当时迪士尼收购漫威时，支付的价格比它当时的股价高出29%。

And to put to place a, to kinda, like, for listeners out there, a a 29% premium, was what was paid for, for Marvel above what it was, currently trading at.

虽然当时有人质疑，天啊，42.4亿美元，这收购价也太高了吧，但其实跟当时股市对漫威的估值差不了多少，甚至跟咱们这档节目之前聊过的其他上市公司收购案相比，也还算合理。

So while there was some scrutiny, like, oh my god, that's a huge, you know, 4,240,000,000, that's a huge ridiculous acquisition, it's it's not that much more than what the public markets were valuing it at, and it actually is pretty much in line with other public company acquisitions that we've covered on this show.

对。

Mhmm.

还有个容易被忽略的关键点，现在很多人讨论这笔交易时，反而把背景给漏了。

And, another thing that's important to think about about this deal, that, I think other folks who've written about it now and talked about it, it kinda lose context of a little bit.

那时候正好是经济衰退期。

This was in the middle of the recession.

所以伊格尔和迪士尼这时候收购漫威，时机简直完美，因为当时大家普遍很焦虑。

And so this was, like, perfect timing by by Iger and Disney to buy Marvel, because people were worried at this point.

就像我们刚才还在聊票房数据那样。

Like, you know, our and we were talking about box office numbers a minute ago.

当时大家确实很沮丧，因为正处于经济衰退期，人们手头的可支配收入比十年前少了很多。

They were certainly depressed by the fact that we're in the middle of the recession and, like, people didn't have nearly as much disposable income as they were used to having earlier in the decade.

没错。

That's right.

更别说，这个价格还不到三年前收购皮克斯时的一半。

And for even more perspective, it was just over half the price that they paid three years before for Pixar.

如果从这个趋势来看，他们当时还没收购卢卡斯影业，但我们可以把迪士尼简单看作一家内容和发行公司，他们本质上就是在不断买内容。

So when if you kind of look at this trend, they hadn't yet acquired Lucasfilm, but let's let's simplify Disney to a, a content and distribution company, and they're basically out buying content.

你知道，他们这次的第二个大动作，其实早有预兆。

You know, the the part part two of their, the the second big pickup that they made here, you know, they signaled that they were gonna do this before.

这完全是艾格的策略。

This was Eiger's strategy.

对。

Mhmm.

而且，用皮克斯的例子来看，这招明显很管用。

And, it it clearly had been working with Pixar.

是的。

Yeah.

而且，你知道，皮克斯这件事， famously，伊格尔刚当上CEO时的第一次董事会，我记得是他上任第二天。

And, I mean, the the Pixar you know, famously, Bob Iger's first board meeting as CEO, which was, I think, his, like, second day on the job.

他向董事会提出想收购皮克斯，这明显是他掌舵后定下的基调，而且他在收购这三家公司上的执行，确实无可挑剔。

He proposed to the board that he wanted to wanted to buy Pixar, and this was clearly how he kinda set the tone for his his tenure as CEO, and he's, you know, certainly hard to argue with his execution across, the three of these companies.

对。

Right.

没错。

Right.

如果你是迪士尼，站在2005年回头看，你手上没掌握的优质内容，一部分在环球，其他零零散散在各处，但真正三大巨头就三个：卢卡斯影业、皮克斯和漫威。

And it's it's it's if you're Disney and you're looking around and it's, you know, 2005, like, all the valuable content that you don't own, that's like, some of it's in Universal, and some of it's like, there's little pieces and pockets elsewhere, but the three other big powerhouses are Lucasfilm, Pixar, and, and Marvel.

对。

And Yeah.

你想想，这事儿跨度到底有多少年？

You know, when when in in over, what, how many years?

2006年或者2012年。

2006 or 2012.

所以六年里，他们把这三家全吞了。

So over six years rolled them all up.

而且，说到咱们这节目的主题——至少是现在这一半的主题——收购，伊格尔接任迪士尼CEO的时候，正好赶上有人恶意收购迪士尼，就是康卡斯特，就在伊格尔上任前，搞了个恶意收购想把迪士尼买走。

Well and, you know, also, know, in keeping with the theme of the show or half of the theme of the show now in in acquisitions, you know, Iger took over as CEO of Disney, right after there had been this, this hostile takeover attempt of Disney that actually Comcast, right before Iger became CEO, launched a hostile takeover attempt to try and buy Disney.

当然，后来五六年后，他们自己就把NBC给收购了。

And, of course, later, you know, five or six years later, they would end up acquiring NBC.

但你可以想象，经历过这事之后，迪士尼董事会和鲍勃·伊格尔刚上任时，肯定心里清楚：媒体行业合并潮就要来了，这事儿板上钉钉。

But this was like I have to imagine that living through that, the Disney board and Bob Iger and kinda entering his tenure, thinking about seeing consolidation in the media industry coming Absolutely.

于是他们主动选择当那个收购方，而不是被收购的那个，四处找能买下的目标。

And decided very actively deciding to be a consolidator as opposed to a consolidatee and looking around to see what they could buy.

是啊。

Yeah.

你看看这种激进策略帮他们干成了啥。

And you look at the, what that aggressive strategy helped them do.

我是说，2005年的时候谁还能跟迪士尼抗衡？现在还有谁勉强能跟他们比？

I mean, who was competing with Disney in in 2005 and who's even close to competing with them now?

我的意思是，这招简直太成功了。

I mean, I think that that that just totally worked.

对。

Yeah.

而且说真的，我同意。

And, interestingly, you know, I agree.

当年在收购漫威的时候，他就说过，漫威的品牌和海量内容，现在能借助我们强大的渠道获得更多价值。

I actually said in kind of the the press quote at, at the time of the Marvel deal, you know, he said Marvel's brand and its treasure trove of content will now benefit from our extraordinary reach.

我们付的价格，反映了他们创造的价值，也反映了我们合并后能创造的新价值。

We paid a price that reflects the value they've created and the value we can create as one company.

价格不低，但很公道。

It's a full price, but a fair price.

当然，我们之前在皮克斯和卢卡斯影业那几期也聊过，你知道吗，迪士尼的核心优势，别的媒体公司根本比不了，就是那个飞轮效应。

And absolutely, you we talked about this in the Pixar episode and especially in the Lucasfilm episode, but, you know, Disney's core competency and what they have that the other media companies don't have is that flywheel that Yep.

你知道吗？沃尔特·迪士尼当年刚创业时就奠定了这种能力——能把《星球大战》、皮克斯、漫威这种顶级IP放进他们的循环系统里，榨出远超它们独立运作的价值。

You know, that Walt Disney drew, you know, back in the early days of the company, which is the ability to take great IP franchises like Star Wars, you know, like Pixar, like, like Marvel, and and pump them through the flywheel and realize much more value out of it than they could on their own.

没错。

That's right.

老派迪士尼是自己原创内容，但新派迪士尼特别擅长把外部内容也无缝接入这个飞轮。

And old school Disney was creating it, but new school Disney has has pretty efficiently figured out how to bring in content they don't create into that flywheel too.

对。

Yep.

还有一块我们还没聊到，因为不是收购来的，就是ESPN在迪士尼内部的惊人增长。

And I think the the the fourth piece of this stool that we haven't talked about yet, because it wasn't an acquisition, is the tremendous growth of of the ESPN business inside of Disney.

这四大块加起来，才是过去这些年迪士尼股价暴涨的真正原因。

And I think the the the four of those businesses together really, really account for a lot of the, the the growth and the dramatic change in share price between then and today.

是啊。

Yeah.

而且有意思的是——

And it's interesting too.

说实话，我之前还真没把ESPN和这个飞轮模式联系起来，你这么一提，倒是有道理。

I mean, I hadn't thought about, ESPN in this context, but you bringing it up in in, in the context of the flywheel.

其实，迪士尼本身也是被收购的。

Well, I guess, actually, Disney was an acquisition.

只不过那是很久以前的事了。

It was just a long time ago.

对啊。

Or yes.

没错。

Yeah.

ESPN。

ESPN.

是啊。

Yep.

它的来头还挺复杂的。

It was through a pretty complicated history.

这节目以后真可以做个一期，挺有意思的。

That might be a fun show to do sometime.

对啊。

Yeah.

ESPN的企业发展史特别有意思。

ESPN is a super interesting corporate history.

不过ESPN的核心业务，我觉得在很多年里简直就是迪士尼的金矿，但如今受流媒体和线性电视衰落的影响，处境比几年前难多了。

But, the core ESPN business, I think in a lot of way I mean, it was totally the golden egg for many, many years for Disney, but, I think is much more challenged today than it was a few years ago with cord cutting, and, you know, linear television watching being much less of a thing.

当然，SportsCenter还是有很多人喜欢，但我以前每天都要看好多遍，现在好几年都没看了，虽然我还是会在Snapchat上看一些片段。

And, obviously, SportsCenter is still popular among many people, but I used to watch SportsCenter every day, probably multiple times a day, and I haven't watched it in years now, even though I still watch clips on Snapchat.

但是——

But

你看他们现在的策略，尤其是在影视方面，比如ESPN2和《30对30》系列，还有他们在这块做的投资。

but you see this this strategy and especially around film with ESPN two now with 30 for 30 and some of the investments they're making there.

没错。

Yeah.

想想那个OJ的纪录片，多出色、多有野心啊。

Think about the OJ documentary and how great and ambitious that was.

对啊，确实。

Oh, yeah.

你这完全说到我关心的科技话题上了。

You're you're totally getting into my tech themes.

行吧。

Alright.

那咱们今天就到这里。

Well, we'll stop now.

各位听众朋友们，

Alright, listeners.

现在要特别感谢我们节目的新赞助商——Intapp。

Now is a great time to thank new friend of the show, Intapp.

你们可能最熟悉他们的产品DealCloud。

You are probably most familiar with their product, DealCloud.

是的

Yeah.

DealCloud 是私募资本和投资银行领域领先的交易管理与智能平台。

DealCloud is the premier deal management and intelligence platform for private capital and investment banking.

如果你在一家私募公司，你的业务线索和客户关系系统很可能现在就在用它。

So if you're at a PE firm, there's a pretty good chance your pipeline and CRM is running on it right now.

对

Yep.

但 Intapp 的实际范围要广得多。

But Intapp is actually much broader.

它本质上是专业服务机构——金融、法律、会计和咨询行业的操作系统。

It's essentially the operating system for professional firms, financial, legal, accounting, and consulting.

Intapp 支撑着这些机构的核心流程，比如业务开发、客户接入、合规管理和工时追踪。

Intapp powers the workflows that run these firms, origination, business intake, compliance, and time capture.

上个月他们刚发布了一个特别有意思的产品，叫 Celeste，一个智能代理型 AI 平台。

And they just announced a product last month that's super interesting, Celeste, their agentic AI platform.

我们花了一些时间体验了这个产品，一下子就明白了。

We spent some time getting a tour of the product, and we instantly got it.

它不只是个人效率工具。

It's not just an individual productivity tool.

它是面向整个公司的AI，把机构知识、工作流程、协作功能，还有你们公司的历史全都内置进去了。

It's firm wide AI for institutional knowledge with workflows, collaboration, and your firm's history just built right into it.

这大概就是为什么大卫，他们在Intapp那边管这叫Firm AI吧。

Which, that's probably, David, why they call it Firm AI over there at, Intapp.

没错。

Yes.

确实如此。

Yes, indeed.

它不是那种啥都往里吞的通用AI，对专业机构来说，那可能风险太大了。

It isn't just general purpose AI that just ingests everything and can be a huge liability for professional firms.

你需要的是懂你项目历史、懂保密要求，还能天然处理MNPI管控和利益冲突这类问题的AI。

You need AI that knows your deal history and your confidentiality requirements and things like MNPI controls or conflicts of interest and respects all of it natively.

我印象最深的有两件事，都是关于Celeste的。

So two big things stuck with me about Celeste.

第一是它的上下文引擎，这个语义层能把你们公司的专有知识全都映射出来，让智能代理能直接用上。

First, the context engine, which is a semantic layer that maps your firm's proprietary knowledge so agents can act on it.

比如说，你们之前因为行业集中度风险放过一个项目，Celeste全记得。

If you, say, passed on a deal for sector concentration risk, Celeste knows.

这个决定可不是只藏在某个高级合伙人脑子里。

And that decision isn't just locked in a senior partner's head.

它是全公司都能用的，所有决策都会自动体现出来。

It's deployed at scale, so it's reflected in decisions that are made firm wide.

第二是那些现成的流程模板，比如项目初筛、利益冲突审查、交叉销售，智能代理都能自己跑，而且内置了合规和管控机制。

And second, prebuilt playbooks for things like deal screening, conflicts clearance, cross selling, agents execute autonomously with governance and compliance built right in.

对这些专业机构来说，真正的竞争优势就是那些专有知识、人脉关系和项目历史，全都在这儿。

For these professional firms, the competitive advantage is proprietary knowledge, relationships, and deal history, all of that.

这就是他们的护城河，而Celeste让它能规模化。

That is their moat, and Celeste makes that scalable.

它能连接 Snowflake、微软 Copilot 以及其他生态合作伙伴。

It connects to Snowflake and Microsoft Copilot and other ecosystem partners.

他们今年二月刚宣布和 Anthropic 以及 Harvey 达成了合作。

And they just announced partnerships in February with both Anthropic and Harvey.

如果你在私募基金、律所，或者任何专业服务机构，想知道 AI 怎么真正为整个公司创造价值，而不仅仅是个人用用，去 intapp.com/celeste 看看吧。

So if you're at a PE fund or a law firm or any professional services firm and you're trying to figure out how does AI create value for the whole firm, not just individuals, go check out intapp.com/celeste.

网址是 intapp.com/celeste，或者点节目笔记里的链接，记得跟他们说你是 Ben 和 David 从 Acquired 推荐来的。

That's intapp.com/celeste, or click the link in the show notes and just tell them that Ben and David from Acquired sent you.

那咱们接下来进收购这个板块？

And you wanna move on to acquisition category?

对。

Yeah.

先别急，咱们再快速收个尾，说说收购之后的事儿。

Let's do but, first, just to wrap up quickly on, on the the aftermath of the acquisition.

就像我们说的，Pearl Mutter 仍然是这家公司的 CEO。

So as we mentioned, Pearl Mutter remains the CEO of the company.

公司还是留在纽约。

The company stays in New York.

所以它算是迪士尼旗下完全独立运营的子公司。

So it's a fully autonomous subsidiary within Disney.

就像我们说的，他们一直按2005年成立漫威影业时定下的计划稳步推进。

And and like we said, basically, they've just continued to execute on the plan that they drew up in 2005 when they launched Marvel Studios.

而且产出量大得多。

And and producing dramatically more.

你看他们被收购的时候，片单里也就五六部片子吧。

Like, their their scale now, I mean, they had, like, five or six in the pipeline when they were acquired.

但现在你看看这几年漫威电影的上映节奏，还有未来几年规划的片子，根本没停过。

But I think you look at the the the pace of new Marvel movies coming out and new Marvel movies planned through the next few few years, like, they're they're they're not letting up.

没错。

Yep.

而且未来这家公司还能释放出更多价值。

And and even, you know, so there's much more value to be realized from the company in the future.

但自从2009年被收购以来，漫威电影的票房收入已经接近90亿美元，简直不可思议。

But even since the acquisition in 2009, the Marvel movies have generated almost $9,000,000,000 in revenue, in in box office revenue, which is crazy.

不过，这不等于利润，电影的利润可比纯收入难赚多了。

Now, that doesn't necessarily equal, certainly doesn't equal profits, and and profits for movies are harder to get to, than than pure revenue.

咱们可以查到这些数据。

We can we can get that data.

对。

Yeah.

我觉得漫威自己估算过，前八部上映的电影，我特意查了迪士尼的财报，利润率大概在23%左右。

I think I think, Marvel estimated profit margins, at least in the first eight films released, I actually pulled the stat under Disney, were about a 23% profit margin.

明白了。

Okay.

这么说，到目前为止，电影带来的利润大概有20亿出头吧。

So, you know, you call roughly sort of 2,000,000,000 ish, slightly more than 2,000,000,000, in profit, so far from the movies.

光是票房就赚回了收购价的一半，这还没算其他收入呢。

So that's half the purchase price right there, and that's just the box office.

没错。

Right.

这还没算家庭影音、周边商品、主题乐园这些其他所有收入呢。

You know, not the not the home video, not the merchandising, not the theme parks, you know, all that stuff.

所以说

So

完全没错。

Totally.

我还查到了另一组数据。

And I even I I grabbed another stat.

我记得这个数据来自2015年《财富》的一篇文章。

I think this is, I think this is from, yeah, a Fortune article in 2015.

有位分析师说，等《复仇者联盟》、《钢铁侠3》，还有美国队长、雷神的续集都推出后，迪士尼收购漫威的成本就基本都收回来了。

One analyst said that by the time it was finished with the Avengers, Iron Man three, and Captain America, and Thor sequels, Disney probably paid, for the acquisition of the entire company.

也就是说迪士尼收回收购成本的速度其实非常快。

So I think it's it's a pretty quick payback period there.

而且确实。

And Yeah.

你看那个22%的利润率，再想想现在拍这些大片的制作成本，真是贵得吓人。

I think looking at that that 22% profit margin and you look at the price tag of of production now on these films, pretty expensive to make these huge blockbusters.

是的。

Yeah.

你得花两亿美元吧，

Well, you need the 200,000,000,

一亿五千万？

150,000,000?

对。

Yeah.

咱们还是先别急着下结论，等最后评分出来再细聊这个。

You need well well, we should we should delay some of this discussion till we till we render our final grade.

不过

But

好吧。

Alright.

行吧。

Alright.

咱们直接进入这个类别吧。

Let's, let's jump into category.

提醒一下，皮克斯是我们这个节目第一期聊的，那时候我们说它是个业务线。

So as a reminder, we, Pixar, which was our very first episode on this show, we actually we said it was a business line.

卢卡斯影业呢，我们说它是个产品。

And then Lucasfilm, we said it was a product.

那漫威算什么？

So what is what is Marvel?

对。

Yeah.

我先提前透露下我的观点和结论吧，我觉得主要有两点。

So I am gonna foreshadow my, my tech themes and my conclusion a little bit here, but, I think it was, two things.

一个是业务线。

One is a business line.

他们买的是拍电影的这一整条业务线。

They they bought the, the business line of making the films.

他们能把这个业务规模做大。

They were able to scale that.

咱们之前聊过，收购后没多久就回本了，就是这个工作室本身。

You know, we we talked about, kind of paying back the acquisition in a in a short ish amount of time, you know, the studio itself.

但最终，他们永久拥有了这些角色的资产。

But, ultimately, they have this asset in perpetuity of the characters.

说实话，我们之前没给皮克斯归到资产这一类，原因就在于——皮克斯的续集，远不如漫画角色那种持续连载的模式有生命力。

And unlike and in my opinion, the the reason why we didn't call well, we didn't have asset yet in this this, categorization for for Pixar, but Pixar sequels don't hold up as well as the serialization that comic book characters lend themselves to.

很多续集都容易让人审美疲劳，但世界上有那么少数几个系列，比如詹姆斯·邦德，怎么拍都不腻，因为能不断翻新，或者故事本身就算套路化也让人看得开心，同一个紧凑的剧情模式，反复体验也不嫌烦。

So on unlike a lot of sequels, which fatigue very often, there's there's these, like, few in the world, the James Bonds of the world, that that don't get tired because they're able to kinda keep reinventing it, or they're the the stories are okay being formulaic, so you kinda can keep experiencing the same, the same tight plot line over and over again.

超级英雄正好就适合这种模式。我所说的‘资产’，是跟业务线分开的——这些角色本身，才是真正能长期持有的核心资产。

Superheroes let themselves do that and the intellectual property, that I'm calling separate from the business line, the intellectual property that is these characters are, you know, they're a true asset in perpetuity.

对。

Yeah.

挺有意思的。

Interesting.

这刚好也稍微呼应了一下我准备聊的一个科技主题，不过刚才我本来想偷个懒，直接说“没错”就完事的。

Foreshadowing one of my tech themes a little bit too, but, I was gonna be lazy on this one and say, oh, yeah.

这确实是一套成熟的产品逻辑，就跟卢卡斯影业一样——我记得我们之前把卢卡斯影业比作那个能驱动整个飞轮持续运转的核心动力源。

Totally a product, just like Lucasfilm and being you know, I think we called Lucasfilm the the sort of juice that gets pumped through the pipeline of the flywheel.

我之前也觉得是这样，现在还是这么想。

And and I thought that this is too, and I and I still think it is.

但你说的这个点特别有意思——就是超级英雄IP的可持续连载性，还有这些IP的资产价值，和皮克斯的作品完全不一样，哪怕皮克斯本身做得再好也比不了。

But it's an interesting insight on the serial serializability of superheroes and the assets of superheroes versus a Pixar, which as great as Pixar is.

反正我已经不期待再出新的《玩具总动员》了。

And I'm not excited for another Toy Story.

对。

Yeah.

没错。

Exactly.

说白了，这生意在很多方面更难，因为你得赌团队能不能持续产出新的原创佳作。

Like, there's it's kind of a harder business in a lot of ways because you're you're betting on the capability of the team to keep producing new original great stuff.

对。

Right.

就像你的资产折旧得更快。

It's like your assets depreciate faster.

没错。

Yep.

或者说是吧。

Or yeah.

其实皮克斯也会做续集，但那并不是它的核心。

Well, they or there is no I mean, they do do sequels at Pixar, but, but that's not the core of what it is.

你得不断创造新东西，每次都像重新推石头上山。

It's like, you have to keep generating new keep pushing the rock up the hill each time.

对。

Right.

说来也挺有意思。

And, actually, it's funny.

如果你看看的话，我本来想说，拍一部皮克斯电影确实更贵，因为你没法像拍第N部超级英雄电影那样重复利用资源。

If you look at the, I was I was about to make the point that, it is more expensive to create a a Pixar film, be because you don't have the same reusability that you do from the nth, you know, superhero film.

但实际上，皮克斯电影的利润率反而更高。

It actually is, the the the profit margin on on Pixar films are higher.

所以，为了纠正我刚才说的，漫威的利润率是23%，皮克斯是27%。

So to to kinda combat the the, point I just made, 23%, profit margins for Marvel, 27% profit margins for Pixar.

虽然制作渲染农场和画师都很贵，但哪有拿直升机往大楼里撞来得贵啊。

And, you know, render farms and and illustrators are expensive, but not as expensive as flying helicopters into buildings.

是的。

Yeah.

而且，皮克斯给配音演员的片酬其实也不算高，不过

And, well, not that Pixar pays actors a lot too for their voice, but

是的

Yeah.

我猜，从演员总薪酬来看，皮克斯的电影肯定比漫威的要少。

I would imagine probably in aggregate in terms of money paid to actors, Pixar movies, I I would have to imagine are less than a Marvel movie.

是的

Yeah.

对

Yeah.

我觉得也是

I would think.

有意思

Interesting.

没错

Yeah.

我喜欢这种资产分类的方式

I like the I like the asset categorization.

我的意思是，这肯定也被用来推动迪士尼的飞轮效应。

I mean, I think it is definitely also used to pump through Disney's flywheel.

没错。

Totally.

但它的资产属性和皮克斯显然不一样。

But it is a different kind of asset than certainly Pixar.

而且在很多方面，星战也是这样。

And then I think in a lot of ways, Star Wars too.

星战，或者准确地说，我刚才说的是星战，属于卢卡斯影业。

Star Wars is kinda like or star tellingly, I called it Star Wars, Lucasfilm.

一听就知道是星战。

You can just tell it Star Wars.

是的。

Yeah.

但这就是星战。

But it's it is Star Wars.

对吧？

Right?

而漫威呢，它拥有的是好几个大IP。

Whereas Marvel, is many of these franchises.

没错。

Right.

对。

Right.

是啊。

Right.

没错。

Oh, yeah.

说真的，这点说得太到位了。

I mean, that's a that's a great point.

你想想，卢卡斯影业收购价40亿美元，漫威是42亿，这背后得有多少角色啊。

It's like, if you look at the, the $4,000,000,000 price tag for Lucasfilm and the 4,200,000,000 price tag for, for Marvel, like, think how many more characters.

当时漫威宇宙里有八百多个角色，或者至少五百多个，但真正被美国大众认得的可能就五十个左右。

It's, like, 800 plus characters or, I think, 500 plus at the time of acquisition in the Marvel Universe, and maybe 50 of which are recognizable by the American public.

没错。

Yep.

你再看《星球大战》，卢卡斯影业当初估值的时候，应该不是靠那些冷门角色撑起来的。

And you look at look at Star Wars, and I don't think Lucasfilm was sort of looking valuing themselves based on all those deep characters.

现在迪士尼的这些大IP，正试图把《星球大战》的世界变得更系列化，更分散，讲一堆跟我们最爱的角色没啥关系的新故事。

And what we're seeing with the the Disney powerhouses, they're sort of trying to make the Star Wars universe more serializable and more, kind of disparate with all these different, stories that they're trying to tell that aren't with our our our favorite characters.

我特别想看看，嗯……

And I'll be really interested to see Yeah.

我不是想看《侠盗一号》卖得怎么样——我觉得星战粉丝的期待早就憋疯了。我想看的是第三部、第四部完全没核心角色的外传，迪士尼能不能像搞漫威那样，把卢卡斯的这些角色也打造成一个接一个的爆款系列。

Not not how Rogue One does, because I think that that's gonna be there's so much pent up demand for Star Wars that, like, I wanna see how the third or fourth non core Star Wars story does, and if if Disney will be successful in kind of creating, this sort of serial blockbuster out of Lucasfilm characters the same way they've been able to with with Marvel characters.

是啊。

Yeah.

挺有意思的是，想想迪士尼这三笔收购，虽然都属于同一个大方向，但其实处在一条光谱上：皮克斯最看重人和创作过程，不断推出全新的原创作品；卢卡斯影业在中间，核心就一个《星球大战》IP，以前收购前，新内容隔好多年才出一部，现在节奏快多了。

It's interesting to think about to think about these three acquisitions, which are obviously all fall within the same, you know, broad theme for Disney, but on a kind of spectrum from Pixar where they're it's it's so much about the people and the creative process and creating individual new, new creative works, to then kind of Lucasfilm sorta in the middle where it's about the France the one franchise of Star Wars, and the cadence around that is, well, before the acquisition was very long cycles between any sort of new Star Wars content that would come out, and it's much faster.

没错。

Right.

对。

Right.

是啊。

Right.

好几十年呢。

Like, multiple decades.

是的。

Yep.

卢卡斯影业其实挺看重人的。

And and and and Lucasfilm is sort of about the people.

你懂的。

You know?

我的意思是，乔治·卢卡斯和那边的领导团队确实厉害，但归根结底，还是靠这个IP撑着。

I mean, obviously, there's George Lucas and and some great leadership at Lucasfilm, but, but also, you know, about the franchise.

而另一边呢，漫威的商业运作特别出色，尤其是艾萨克·珀尔穆特掌舵的时候。

And then and then you've got Marvel at the other end of the spectrum, which has had great business leadership, especially under Isaac, Isaac Perlmutter.

但你知道吧，所有参与拍电影的人，甚至画漫画的艺术家，全都是外包的第三方。

But, you know, all of the all of the talent that comes into the the making the movies and even the artists of the comic books, like, it's all it's all third parties.

你懂的？

You know?

对。

Right.

这跟皮克斯完全不一样，差别可大了。

It's not it's not like it's kind of very it's very different from Pixar.

说得对。

Yeah.

这点真说到点子上了。

Great point.

行吧。

Alright.

那我们接着聊聊如果没有收购会发生什么？

Should we move on to what would happen otherwise?

没收购的话会怎样？

What happened otherwise?

对啊。

Yeah.

我觉得漫威本来是要被收购的。

So I think Marvel was gonna get acquired.

那时候正是行业整合的时期，渠道商都在买内容。

Like, we were in an era of consolidation where distribution was buying content.

没错。

Yep.

我也不清楚还会有谁来收购。

And I don't know who else it would have been.

二十世纪福克斯、索尼。

Twentieth Century Fox, Sony.

其实，他们本可以有好多其他选择。

Seems like, actually, there's a lot of places they could have landed.

2006年迪士尼收购皮克斯的时候，居然没人提前看出苗头，抢先下手，这真让我有点意外。

It's kinda shocking to me that with, the Pixar pickup in 2006 that someone else didn't see this coming and try to make a play for it sooner.

其他公司或者工作室有没有想过要出手呢？嗯……

Did maybe other people other studios or I guess Well,

尤其是其他那些公司，我猜他们可能有点懒，觉得反正好处都占着，何必多此一举。

especially the other well, I wonder if the other studios maybe, were a little bit lazy in their thinking because they were kinda having their cake and eating it too.

对吧？

Right?

他们当时能拿到漫威的电影，比如《蜘蛛侠》和《X战警》，又不用真把公司买下来。

And that they were getting Marvel movies in in Spider Man and in Right.

只要不买下整个公司，就能用漫威的角色拍电影。

X Men, without having to actually buy the company.

直到漫威自己开始拍电影，这才真正变成一个值钱的独立公司。

And and it was only when, when Marvel started making movies on their own that it became a really valuable company as itself.

是的。

Yeah.

没错。

That's true.

而且那时候漫威工作室成立也没多久。

And it really hadn't been long since since Marvel Studios was around.

真正让人惊讶的是，怎么就没其他人想到呢？哦，等等，这里倒有个挺有意思的问题。

The the shocking thing is, like, how did no one else I mean oh, actually, here's a here's kind of an interesting question.

如果你是二十世纪福克斯或者索尼影业，假设你能预知未来，知道迪士尼会这么做，你会不会提前下手？

If you're twentieth Century Fox or if you are Sony Pictures and you see, let's say you could see the future and know that Disney was going to do this, do you try to do it sooner?

是大家压根没觉得迪士尼会这么做，还是根本不在乎迪士尼会这么做？

Like, did people a, not think Disney was gonna do it or b, not care that Disney was gonna do it?

对。

Yeah.

其实咱们还没提到过一件挺有意思的事：表面上看，漫威和迪士尼的搭配其实并不算最自然的组合，但正因如此，鲍勃·艾格和迪士尼才更想拿下它。

Well, here's an interesting thing that we we haven't talked about yet so far, but, on the surface, this actually wasn't the most natural fit with Disney, which actually I think is one of the reasons why Bob Iger and Disney really wanted to do this acquisition.

但迪士尼一直给人的印象就是公主和动画电影，还有皮克斯，这些都很符合那个风格。

But Disney was always, you know, kinda like princesses and animated movies and, and then Pixar, which definitely fit into that mold.

说到他们针对孩子的策略，虽然这么说有点刻板印象，但过去很多迪士尼的人，还有整个媒体行业，都觉得迪士尼牢牢抓住了小女孩的心——当然男孩也有，但他们确实没怎么拿下男孩市场。

And, you know, in terms of their strategy with children, you know, super gender stereotypes here, but I think this is the way a lot of at least historically, a lot of people at Disney have thought about this and in the media industry that Disney, like, owned little girls, you know, but they didn't you know, and little boys too, but, like, they didn't have To

程度要低得多。

a much lesser extent.

要低得多。

Much to a much lesser extent.

这次迪士尼其实是想把男孩也拉进来。

And that this was Disney's play for, for little boys too.

我的意思是，还有什么比超级英雄更能吸引小男孩的呢？虽然这完全是老派的性别刻板印象——不过我本人可是个《冰雪奇缘》死忠粉。

I mean, what's what's more attractive to little boys than superheroes in in total, you know, old school gender stereotyped, ways, speaking as a massive Frozen fan myself.

没错。

Right.

对。

Right.

说实话，我还没看过呢。

You know, I still haven't seen it.

我啊，

I,

你可得赶紧补上。

Oh, you gotta change that.

真的特别好看。

It's so good.

我知道。

I know.

我懂。

I know.

作为一个铁杆皮克斯粉，我确实该看看。

As a as a, admitted Pixar fanboy, I really should.

倒不是因为它是皮克斯的，而是想看看它怎么影响了迪士尼整个体系。

Not not that it's Pixar, but, like, you know, to to see how that's entered the rest of the Disney umbrella.

没错。

Yeah.

而且还有一点也很值得琢磨。

And it's interesting to think too.

我觉得皮克斯的这套东西估计对漫威的佩尔·穆特那些人没什么影响，毕竟他们都是职业经理人，不像创始人那样自带创作者属性。

I I can't imagine this had that much impact on Pearl Mutter and Marvel because it was they were much more business executives than sort of founder creative types.

但艾格和迪士尼通过这三起收购，现在已经攒出好口碑了，大家都觉得他们特别会打理这些IP系列。

But Iger and Disney have developed this reputation now with these three acquisitions as, like, excellent stewards of of franchises.

他们在文创领域和商业运营上简直就是行业里的巴菲特，

They're kinda like the Warren Buffets of of create of creative content and businesses.

你懂我意思吧？

You know?

可不是嘛。

Right.

要说这事儿啊

When

我觉得，嗯，在皮克斯动画这块，其实应该是皮克斯那边。

I think, yeah, in the in the, Pixar animation, we or the, I think it was the Pixar no.

在收购卢卡斯影业的时候，我们拿它跟Facebook比，迪士尼真的很擅长让这些原本各自独立的团队

In the Lucasfilm acquisition, we, compared it to Facebook that that Disney was really good at leaving their their sort of disparate

保持自己的创作方向。

Leaving creative direction.

独立运作。

On their own.

这也就是为什么，表面上看，真的挺让人惊讶的。

Which again a little bit was why it didn't on the surface, it was a, wow.

迪士尼居然收购了漫威。

Disney buying, you know, Marvel.

漫威的风格比迪士尼大胆多了，但确实如此。

Like, Marvel is much edgier than Disney, but Yeah.

他们让漫威完全独立运作。

They've let it be totally separate.

但在收购卢卡斯影业的时候，乔治·卢卡斯在卖之前就跟鲍勃·艾格说：‘我要卖，也只能卖给你和迪士尼。’

But this was, you know, in the Lucasfilm acquisition, you know, George Lucas said to Bob Iger before he sold, like, if I'm gonna sell it, I would only sell this to to you and to Disney.

还有史蒂夫·乔布斯也一样。

And and and Steve Jobs too.

对吧？

Right?

很难想象皮克斯和乔布斯会把公司卖给除迪士尼之外的任何人。

Like, it's hard to imagine, Pixar and Jobs selling to anybody except Disney.

没错。

Right.

对啊。

Right.

是的。

Yeah.

那我再问你两个问题。

So two two other questions here then for you that I would pose.

第一，还有第四个吗？

One, is there a fourth?

我的意思是，迪士尼会不会再去收购另一块大内容？

Like, will we see Disney make a play for another large piece of content?

我一直在想，会是谁呢？或者有哪些内容现在还没被当成巨头，但其实正在崛起？

And I've I've been sort of racking my brain to think who that could be, or who is the content that we don't think of as the big content yet as the up and comer.

然后第二，你琢磨这个的时候，我顺便延伸一下：就是那种既做分发、又买内容的公司，把内容往自己的渠道里塞，这种模式在其他行业有没有？

And then two, while you're you're sort of noodling on that, I generalize this to, distribution combine combined distribution content company buying more content and pumping it through their distribution.

其他领域有没有类似的情况？

Do we see that in other verticals?

比如科技行业，除了娱乐内容之外，还有没有其他内容被‘分发+内容’型的公司收购？

Like, we seeing that in tech outside of entertainment or any other forms of content being bought by, distribution plus content companies?

挺有意思的问题。

Interesting questions.

至于第二个，某种程度上，我觉得Facebook和Instagram就有点这个意思。

Well, on the second I mean, to a certain extent, I think we see it a little bit with Facebook and, and Instagram.

我的意思是，这完全不一样。

I mean, it's very different.

我觉得Instagram自己也能大发展，但毫无疑问，在广告销售方面，把Facebook的广告体系直接接入Instagram，价值巨大。

Like, I think Instagram would have grown hugely on its own, but no question that on the ad sales side of the house, being able to just plug in Facebook ad sales into Instagram was hugely valuable there.

对。

Mhmm.

至于第一个问题，我了解得不够深，没法给出特别有见地的看法，但突然想到一个点——尤其是现在这家公司有点吃力，任天堂怎么样？

On the first question, you know, I'm not close enough to have a super informed opinion on on that front, but one thing that just popped into my mind, especially because the company is struggling a bit now, what about Nintendo?

哎，你说得对啊。

Boy, that's like the you're right.

这确实是个巨大的IP宝库啊。

That that is, like, the the another huge treasure trove of IP that

是啊。

Yeah.

就像之前《精灵宝可梦GO》那样。

As we saw with with Pokemon GO.

我的意思是，你拿Niantic现有的技术，再往上叠加像任天堂这样价值连城的IP，就能做出让全世界疯狂的东西。

I mean, you you you take an existing piece of technology or relatively existing with Niantic, and, and slap highly valuable IP like Nintendo's on top of it, you can create something, you know, that go that the world goes crazy for.

至于这种火爆能持续多久，咱们可以争论，但——

We can have a debate on how lasting that is, but

没错。

Yep.

但任天堂的马里奥、塞尔达，还有那么多其他IP，说实话，跟漫威的处境真的很像。

But certainly the IP that Nintendo has in in Mario and Zelda, and so many you know, even I mean, they're in a lot of ways, like, the parallels to Marvel are very similar.

你有像《光之神殿》这种冷门的，也有像宝可梦这种人尽皆知的。

You know, you've got lesser known stuff like Kid Icarus and, you know, and then you've got Pokemon, obviously, which is super well known.

天啊，要是这些IP能摆脱游戏主机销售这种艰难的商业模式，全部释放出来——

Man, what would if if all of that IP were liberated from the challenged business model of, like, gaming console hardware sales

对。

Right.

没错。

Right.

是的。

Yeah.

那你能拿它做点啥？

What what could you do with it?

这点挺有意思的。

And what this is interesting.

除了皮克斯，几乎所有的这些IP，不过现在皮克斯也算有点年头了。

Like, almost all of this, probably excluding Pixar, but at this point, Pixar is a little kind of an older company too.

到底还有哪些IP，既特别有价值，又深深融入了美国人的日常认知，而且是新近出现的？

Like, what IP is super valuable and a major part of the American consciousness and new?

因为现在这些，说白了，都是买上世纪70年代的《星球大战》、40到50年代的漫威，还有……

Because all this is, like, you know, buying the Star Wars stuff from '77 and buying the Marvel stuff from the forties and fifties and Yep.

买80年代的任天堂。

Buying Nintendo from the eighties.

那2010年那个级别的马里奥在哪呢？

Like, where where is, you know, like, where's twenty ten's Mario?

但在互联网时代、注意力缩短、人人都能当内容创作者、内容又转瞬即逝的今天，这种东西还存在吗？

And, like, does that exist in the era of the Internet and shortened attention spans and social media where, individuals are their own content creators and content is short lived?

是的。

Yeah.

不过也许它在Facebook上还活着。

Well, maybe it lives on Facebook.

对。

Yeah.

说起来挺有意思，以前老传迪士尼要收购推特的事儿。

And it's, like, it's funny, like, when, you know, in all the rumors of maybe Disney buying Twitter.

对。

Yeah.

结果这事儿黄了，八成是价格没谈拢。

And then that sort of fell through probably because of pricing issues.

这些平台其实都不拥有任何IP。

Like, none of these platforms own the IP.

推文和推特跟内容原创者之间，其实是有共享授权的。

There's, like, shared licenses between the the tweet and the, and between Twitter and the originator of the content.

但真要说起大家真正在意的新知识产权，还真不好想。

But, like, there it's hard to think of new intellectual property that everyone cares about.

大家在乎的，无非就是自己的信息茧房

Like, everyone cares about their little filter bubble

里的内容。

of content.

我还会想到Twitch这样的平台。

I think about or or like Twitch too.

对吧？

Right?

比如说

Like

对。

Right.

过去五年里那些最顶级的大型娱乐IP都是这么回事。

All the big, big entertainment franchises of the last five years, certainly.

你想啊，这些都做成了独立应用。

I think you would you know, they're they're apps.

对吧？

Right?

它们本身都不算单纯的知识产权了。

They're not they're not IP themselves.

这些都是平台性质的。

They're platforms.

对。

Yeah.

没错。

Yeah.

完全就是这么回事。

Exactly.

现在这些作品的核心价值，其实都在平台本身——正是这些平台让内容创作和分发变得大规模、去中心化，而不是靠谁单打独斗做内容。

It's like all the all the major value in the recent stuff is the platform on which, massively distributed democratized IP is created and distributed, not not actually being content powerhouse.

对。

Yep.

再说Netflix，我们其实已经能看到这种情况了。

Other than you know, actually, we are seeing this with Netflix.

对吧？

Right?

Netflix、亚马逊这些公司，以前只是买内容来播，现在直接自己拍了。

Netflix, Amazon, they they have the distribution and were previously licensing the content, and now we're creating content in house.

这正好能说明第二个问题：除了迪士尼，还有谁在这么做？

And that's a pretty good allegory for sort of question number two there of of, who else is is, is doing this these days outside of Disney.

没错。

Yep.

Netflix倒不一定老去收购别的内容公司，但那些掌握渠道的巨头，现在都在砸钱自己做内容。

And I guess Netflix isn't necessarily buying up other companies that have content, but we are seeing heavy investment by the people that have the pipes in creating their own content.

对。

Yep.

其实呢，现在有很多很棒的IP系列正在被创造出来。

Well, actually, you know, there are plenty of IP franchises out there being created and and great ones.

我刚才怎么没想到这一点。

I should have thought of this.

感恩节那几天，我和珍妮还有我爸妈去看了《神奇动物在哪里》，哦，就是《哈利·波特》那个宇宙。

Jenny and I, with my parents, over Thanksgiving weekend went to see, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, which Oh, Harry Potter.

太棒了。

Loved.

当然了，哈利·波特嘛。

But, yeah, Harry Potter, of course.

没错。

Another Yeah.

完全对。

Totally.

这也就是过去十几年的事了。

And that's the last couple decades or decade and a half.

至少比那些老牌IP要年轻不少，对吧？

Or at least younger than some of these other franchises that we Right.

都是迪士尼收购的。

That Disney's been buying.

是的。

Yeah.

没错。

Yeah.

也许这么说不太公平。

Maybe that's not a fair

但你也知道，那个IP其实是后来才创造出来的，

But also, you know, that was really created,

那时候还没什么社交媒体呢。

not Pre social media.