第三十五集：Oculus

这挺有意思的。

And it's interesting.

你看看他们花十亿美元收购Instagram，一千九百亿收购WhatsApp，还给Snapchat开价三十亿，这些例子都说明他们总是慢半拍，得出手把那些在自己地盘上冒出来的新威胁给压下去——当然，Snapchat那次没成功。

Mean, you look at, you know, the billion dollars they spent for Instagram, the $19,000,000,000 they spent for WhatsApp, the $3,000,000,000 they offered Snapchat, you know, those were all examples of they were were too late and they needed to come in and and and take out these, unsuccessfully in Snapchat's case, take out these threats that were popping up in their, you know, within their current domain.

但花二十三亿美金去买一个当时还很模糊的技术浪潮和新形态，确实是一笔巨款。那时候，如果公司里能有更冷静的人理性分析，就会发现这玩意儿离成熟还远得很。

But $2,300,000,000 was a lot of money to spend for for a wave and a technology, and a modality that was even then, you know, I think if if rational, cooler heads prevailed at that moment looking at the company, it was still a long way away.

我们都已经到2017年了，就算再过三年，这东西还是遥遥无期。

I mean, we're here in 2017 and it's still a ways away even three years later.

是的。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

好吧。

So okay.

收购是在哪一年发生的？

What was the date of the acquisition?

那是

It was

2014年3月。

It was March 2014.

明白了。

Okay.

所以，那轮7500万美元的B轮融资是在2013年12月。

So that 75,000,000 series b was in December 2013.

咱们暂且不谈Facebook这边，看看Snapchat这边，他们投了7500万美元，才过了三个多月就……

So, moving away from the Facebook side a little bit and looking over at the end recent side of this, they invested $75,000,000 and then, just a little over three months later, got let's see.

对。

Yeah.

而且

Well, and

我觉得我

I think I

我觉得，虽然不确定是不是官方数据，但根据我查的资料，安德里森这轮的估值在三亿到四亿美元之间。

I believe I don't know if it's official, but in research I believe the valuation of the Andreessen round was between 300 and 400,000,000.

哇，那岂不是涨了十倍？

Wow, so that's a call it a 10x?

我的意思是，大概在

I mean somewhere

不到十倍，但这也是一笔巨款了。

Slightly in the less than 10 x, but still on that's on a a lot of money.

是的。

Yeah.

他们真不错。

Well, good for them.

对。

Yeah.

确实很棒。

Great for them.

好了，各位听众。

Okay, listeners.

现在我要给大家介绍一个我们非常期待的新伙伴——WorkOS。

Now is a great time to tell you about a new friend of the show we are very excited about, WorkOS.

没错。

Yes.

WorkOS 是一个专为企业打造的平台，已被 OpenAI、Cursor、Perplexity、Vercel、Plaid 等上百家顶尖公司采用。

WorkOS is the enterprise ready platform used by OpenAI, Cursor, Perplexity, Vercel, Plaid, and literally hundreds of other winning companies.

那这些公司到底在用 WorkOS 做什么？

So what are all these companies using WorkOS for?

想象一下，你是一家快速成长的初创公司。

Imagine you're a fast growing startup.

你已经找到了产品与市场的契合点，越来越多的大企业主动找上门来。

You've got product market fit, and you're getting inbound interest from big enterprise customers.

这确实让人兴奋。

Very exciting.

但接着他们发来一份安全问卷。

But then they send you their security questionnaire.

对。

Yep.

那问卷长达47页，里面的要求简直像一堆字母乱码。

And it's like 47 pages long with requirements that kinda sound like alphabet soup.

你们支持SAML 2.0吗？

Do you support SAML two dot o?

能和你们的Okta系统对接吗？

Can you integrate with our Okta?

你们有SCIM配置吗？SCIM是什么？

Do you have SCIM provisioning, SCIM?

RBAC呢？R-B-A-C是什么？

What about RBAC, r b a c?

你心里想：这些缩写到底什么意思啊？更别说怎么去实现了。

And you're thinking, I have no idea what these acronyms even mean, let alone how to implement them.

所以事情是这样的。

So here's the thing.

这些不是锦上添花的东西。

These are not nice to haves.

这些是决定合作成败的关键条件。

These are deal blockers.

如果没有单点登录，没有SCIM，没有RBAC，没有审计日志，企业级交易根本谈不拢，别无选择。

Without SSO, without SCIM, without RBAC, without audit logs, you simply cannot close enterprise deals, period.

但这些功能并不会让你们的核心产品变得更好。

But none of these features make your core product better.

它们不会让你们的啤酒更好喝——用我们在Acquired节目里最爱的比喻来说。

They don't make your beer taste better, to use our favorite analogy here on Acquired.

所以如果你在开发一款设计工具，花六个月时间做SAML认证，并不会让你的设计工具更强大。

So if you're building like a design tool, spending six months building SAML authentication doesn't make your design tool more powerful.

这时候，WorkOS就派上用场了。

So this is where WorkOS comes in.

他们为企业的功能打造了一个像 Stripe 一样的平台。

They've built Stripe for enterprise features.

WorkOS 把企业认证的各种要求变成了即插即用的 API，最大限度地简化了不必要的复杂性。

WorkOS turns enterprise authentication requirements into drop in APIs, abstracting away as much unnecessary complexity as possible.

所以你的团队不用花几个月去研究 SAML 标准，几分钟就能搞定企业级单点登录。

So instead of your team spending months reading SAML specs, you can implement enterprise SSO in minutes.

WorkOS 负责用户开通、权限管理、审计日志，所有企业 IT 部门要求的那些必备功能都包了。

WorkOS handles user provisioning, permissions, audit logs, all the checkbox items that Enterprise IT requires.

不管你刚起步想拿下第一个企业客户，还是已经规模不小、正在全球扩张，WorkOS 都是你最快实现企业级兼容的途径。

So whether you are a seed stage company trying to land your first Enterprise customer or already big and expanding globally, WorkOS is the fastest path to becoming enterprise ready.

直接上 workos.com，或者在 Slack 上给他们发消息就行。

Just visit workos.com or just message their Slack support.

他们那儿有真正的工程师，回复问题特别快。

They have real engineers in there who answer questions fast.

你联系他们的时候，就说 Ben 和 David 推荐的。

And when you get in touch, just tell them Ben and David sent you.

我们一会儿再聊收购这个部分，但不幸的是，Facebook收购这家公司后，故事并没有就此结束——接下来的几年里，发生了两件事。

We'll get into acquisition category in a minute here, but, the story doesn't quite end unfortunately for Facebook when they acquire the company, because two things happen over, well, starting immediately but play out over the next couple years.

第一，卡马克的重要性真的不可替代，我坚信，如果没有他，Oculus这家公司和这项技术根本不会存在。

One, it turns out that you know Carmack is as important as he was and I really think Oculus the company and the technology wouldn't exist without him.

可惜的是，他之前的雇主id Software——这家公司几年前已经被一家叫Zenimax的游戏巨头收购了——也认为Oculus的诞生离不开卡马克的贡献，于是他们起诉了Oculus和Facebook，指控卡马克做了两件事。

Unfortunately, his former employer id Software which itself had been acquired a couple years before by a, video game conglomerate called Zenimax, they also agreed that Oculus wouldn't, wouldn't exist without Carmack and his contributions and they end up suing Oculus and Facebook alleging Carmack a couple things.

第一，卡马克在id Software工作期间窃取了关键的知识产权，并带到了Oculus。

One, that Carmack had stolen critical IP from his work at at id and taken it to Oculus.

第二，实际上在2012年，帕尔默·拉奇在与卡马克或其他人会面时，可能签过一份保密协议，而Zenimax现在声称，他违反了这份协议。

And two, actually, in 2012 Palmer Luckey had met, I don't know if it was when he was meeting with Carmack or with other folks that did, had signed an NDA with the company and, as a result of everything that happens, Zenimax is alleging that he had violated that NDA.

而且他们还指控，

And alleged and then

你知道吧？

you know?

所以这场诉讼在收购后几乎立刻就爆发了，而就在我们录制这段内容的2017年2月，也就是上个月，德克萨斯州的一个陪审团——因为id Software总部就在德克萨斯——最终裁定支持Zenimax，判Facebook和Oculus赔偿五亿美元。

So that lawsuit hits almost immediately after the acquisition and then only just a month ago as we're recording this in February 2017, a jury in Texas which id Software was based in Texas, is based in Texas, actually rules in favor of Zenimax, a $500,000,000 judgment against Facebook, and Oculus.

Facebook说他们会上诉，但这情况依然不妙。

And Facebook has said that they're gonna appeal but still that's not good.

是的。

Yeah.

这下子从两点三直接涨到了两点八。

I mean that takes it from a two point

两点三涨到了两点八。

two point three up to 2.3 up to 2.8.

对。

Yeah.

更糟的是，Zenimax还申请了法院禁令，要求停止销售Rift，那可就真麻烦了。

But it gets even potentially worse in that Zenimax has also filed a court injunction arguing that the court should halt sales of the Rift which would just be terrible.

天哪。

Wow.

对。

Yeah.

这可真是个严重的打击。

That's that's a far more serious blow.

是的。

Yeah.

还没发生，但确实有可能。

Hasn't happened yet but it is potential.

很明显，他们是在施压，想在双方之间讨价还价。

Clearly, they're posturing and trying to to bargain between the parties here.

我查了点关于Zenimax的资料，没错，它其实是个挺大的游戏集团。

Some research on on Zenimax for for this and, yeah, it's actually quite a large video game conglomerate.

他们旗下拥有多家工作室，包括开发《上古卷轴》和《辐射》系列的那家——咱们听众里不少游戏迷都熟悉。

They own a bunch of studios including the one that makes video game fans among our listeners will know the Elder Scrolls, the Fallout series.

但你猜猜，谁在Zenimax的董事会里？

But, guess who is on the board of Zenimax?

唯一不会让我意外的，就是卡尔·伊坎。

The only the only thing that wouldn't surprise me is Carl Icahn.

不是。

No.

但差不多了。

But, almost as good.

他们还真是人才济济。

So they they have quite the cast of characters.

还有棒球明星卡尔·里普肯 Jr.，天哪。

They have Cal Ripken Junior, the Oh my god.

铁人。

The Iron Man.

棒球运动员。

Baseball player.

是的。

Yeah.

还有电影制片人杰瑞·布鲁克海默。

Jerry Bruckheimer, the, the movie producer.

还有，除了Les Moonves——他是CBS的首席执行官。

And, in addition to Les Les Moonves, who's who's the CEO of CBS.

但最让人意外的还在后头。

But this is really the kicker.

我看到这个消息的时候，简直不敢相信。

I I just couldn't believe it when I read this.

罗伯特·特朗普，唐纳德·特朗普的弟弟，也在ZeniMax的董事会里。

Robert Trump, Donald Trump's brother is on the board of Zenimax.

不是说那个

Didn't The

网上都说这是真的。

internet says it's true.

天啊，这公司真够怪的。

Boy, what a weird company.

真是的，大企业都这么离谱。

God, conglomerates are weird, man.

是的

Yeah.

真的太奇怪了

Totally weird.

这种事你根本编不出来

So you can't you can't make this stuff up.

有时候现实比虚拟现实还要离谱

Truth is in fact sometimes more stranger than virtual reality.

对

Yeah.

而且你知道，我们之后会跟进

And you know, we'll have a follow-up.

我敢肯定，可能不会单独做一期，但以后的节目里一定会再提这件事

I'm I'm sure, probably not an episode, but this will be an in follow-up in future episode.

但我猜你没错，禁止销售Rift的禁令很可能只是作姿态，想借此施压，争取更多谈判筹码或者从当前判决中捞点好处

But, I suspect you're right that the injunction to stop selling the Rift is just posturing and trying to get potentially a settlement or or more out of the current ruling or something.

如果他们因为这个就停止出货Rift，我真会很惊讶，但我觉得Facebook很可能得再掏一笔钱。

And, it it would shock me if they they stopped shipping the Rift because of this, but it does feel like Facebook's gonna gonna pay some more money there.

是的。

Yeah.

或者至少这更像是在施压，想让Facebook撤回上诉。

Or or at least it's it's posturing perhaps trying to get Facebook to drop their appeal.

但收购完成后，另一件我们之前提到过的重要事是，Valve和加布·纽维尔决定，不再只是支持Oculus，而是要亲自进军虚拟现实领域。

But the other major thing that happens after the acquisition that we've alluded to on the show is that Valve and Gabe Newell decide that rather than just supporting Oculus, they actually want to get into virtual reality themselves.

所以到了2015年的GDC展会，Valve联手中国消费电子公司HTC，推出了Vive——在很多方面，它都比Oculus和Rift更出色，而且Vive有两个当时Rift完全没有的关键创新。

So the next year at GDC in 2015, Valve unveils in collaboration with HTC, the Chinese consumer electronics company, they unveil the Vive which is in many ways a superior product to Oculus and the Rift and the Vive has two key innovations that, the Rift doesn't have at that point.

一个是真正能用手直接操控的控制器。

One are true hand touch controllers.

在Valve推出Vive之前，你在Oculus上玩游戏或体验内容时，只能用键盘鼠标，或者手柄，比如Xbox手柄，这简直太出戏了。

So when you would play the experiences or games on on Oculus before Valve came out with the Vive, you would have to use either a keyboard and a mouse or or a video game controller, an Xbox controller and that's just totally

天啊，这真的会彻底打破沉浸感。

Boy, does that pull you out of the experience.

这真的会让人瞬间脱离沉浸感，而沉浸感才是VR的核心。

Really pulls you out of the presence which is the whole point of VR.

Valve推出了这些手柄，让你能自由移动双手、抓取物品、拾起东西，更自然地与虚拟环境互动。同时，虽然头盔还是得通过线缆连接电脑，但他们还配了叫作‘基站’的激光定位装置，放在房间里就能实现全身自由走动。

Valve ships these controllers that enable you to move your hands around and grab things and pick things up and interact much more naturally with the environment and then they also have the while it's still tethered, the headset that you wear still has a cable coming out of it and attaches to the PC, they're called lighthouses, that are laser positional tracking, boxes that you put in the room that allow you to walk around the room.

你不再像以前那样坐在椅子上，手里握着游戏手柄，而是彻底转变成一种更沉浸的体验。

So you're no longer just sitting in a chair with your hands on a video game controller like the old video game paradigms, but it really changes this into a much more immersive experience.

Valve这一招真是绝了，绕开了所有直接对抗。

And boy, what a what a brilliant freaking end around by, by Valve.

他们本质上是一家软件公司。

They're a software company.

对不了解Valve的听众来说，他们就是一家软件公司。

For for listeners who don't know a bunch about Valve, they're a software company.

他们开发游戏，还运营一个叫Steam的平台。

They make games and they make a platform called Steam.

他们大部分收入都来自Steam，每款在Steam上发售的游戏他们都会抽成。

And they make, I think, they make most of their money from Steam, and they get a a cut of all the distribution of the games that go out over Steam.

Steam 已经成了 PC 玩家买新游戏的默认渠道。

And, and Steam is sort of the default way if you're a PC gamer to, to go and get new games that come out.

他们 basically 把这条渠道给垄断了。

So, basically, they own the pipe.

他们公司特别古怪，工程师和游戏设计师都顶尖，当然对 VR 很感兴趣，但他们压根不想做硬件。

And, you know, they're super wacky company, brilliant, brilliant engineers there, brilliant game designers that, of course, are interested in VR, but, like, they're not gonna make hardware.

做硬件根本不是他们的强项，而且就像大卫提到的，他们这些年一直在摸索，到底该怎么切入 VR 领域。

Like, that that's not in their core competency yet all, and they've been, as David alluded to, trying for years to figure out what the right way to get into VR was.

他们能密切关注 Oculus 的发展，眼看着它被 Facebook 收购——而 Facebook 说到底也算是他们的竞争对手。

And for them to be able to, you know, closely track and and be a fan of of Oculus, see that fall into Facebook's hands, which it's loosely competitors.

对吧？

Right?

至少，你不会想把自己的公司命运太多押在 Facebook 手里。

At the very least, you don't wanna put too much of your your company's stake on, on in in Facebook's control.

结果他们在这么短的时间内，迅速找到 HTC 这样的硬件伙伴，推出了一款更出色的产品。从这集里我们能得出很多结论，但其中一点是：Valve 和 HTC 里真有一帮执行力超强的人。

And to be able to, in that tight of a window, turn around, find a hardware partner like HTC, and get into market with a superior product, like, there's a lot of things that we'll conclude out of this episode, but one of them is that there are people at at Valve and HTC that are executionally brilliant.

是的。

Yeah.

Valve这家公司，我们会在节目笔记里附上链接。

And Valve is we'll link to this in the show notes.

我猜很多听众都挺熟悉这家公司，但对不熟悉的来说，它真是个特别的地方。

I suspect a lot of our listeners are are know the company well but for those that don't, it is a fascinating place.

几年前，他们的员工手册被泄露到网上，读起来更像一份宣言。

Their employee handbook leaked on the internet a few years ago and it's it's more like a manifesto.

那里没有层级，谁都不向谁汇报，每个人自己决定做什么项目。

There's there's no hierarchy, nobody reports to anyone else there, Everybody decides what they work on.

每个人的办公桌都有轮子，如果你决定换团队，就直接把桌子推过去，加入他们正在做的项目就行。

Their everybody's desk is on wheels and if you decide you wanna work on something else with the other team, you just pick your move your desk over to wherever that team is and you start working on whatever they're working on.

而且我记得，这家公司完全由加布·纽维尔个人拥有。

And and I believe it's a 100% owned by Gabe Newell.

所以没什么股东泄露信息、公开财报，甚至都没人知道公司确切的估值。

So there's no I mean, there's not, a lot of leaks of stuff from shareholders or public disclosures or any or really even like known market cap of the company.

这是一家非常

It's a very

是的，股权非常集中。

Yeah, it's very very closely held.

我不确定加布是不是正好持有100%，但他绝对掌控着公司。

I don't believe Gabe owns exactly 100% but he definitely controls the company.

是的。

Yeah.

就一个人说了算，外界没人知道确切数字，但收入相当可观，主要是来自Steam，就像本提到的，有数十亿美元。

Just one person and they make, nobody knows outside of Valve the exact number but a lot of money, I mean billions of dollars of revenue from, mostly from Steam as Ben mentioned.

没错。

Yep.

如果说有哪个播客是Acquired的反面，那在Acquired这类商业并购节目里，我们通常讲的是‘买’，而不是‘自己建’。

And if there's an opposite podcast to Acquired, it's like so in in the Acquired, or in the corp dev parlance, you know, Acquired is often about the buy, not the build.

如果真有一个播客专门讲‘自己建’而不是‘买’的决策，那我们真该好好研究一下Valve的做法——他们靠Steam积累的资源，敢大胆押注VR，投入巨额资金，去干一件商业前景极其模糊的事，尤其是在项目初期。

If there was a podcast that was about the build decision instead of the buy decision, we would really want to, like, examine what Valve does here and what their existing, business with Steam sort of allowed them to do in in going into VR and taking this, like, very expensive risk on something that has has, you know, super unclear business value especially when they start the venture.

是的。

Yeah.

而且他们确实做得非常到位，这一点毋庸置疑。

And they, you know, they really, you know, I don't think there's really any two ways about it.

他们在接下来两年里把Facebook和Oculus远远甩在了后面。

They out execute Facebook and Oculus over the next two years.

Facebook比Valve早一周推出了Oculus Rift的消费版。

Facebook ends up shipping the consumer version of the Oculus Rift before Valve by a week.

所以Rift的消费版在2016年3月就上市了，而Valve的Vive则是在4月才推出。

So the consumer version of the Rift comes out at the very March 2016 And then at the April, Valve ships the Vive.

但别忘了，Vive有两个Oculus没有的关键创新，直到2016年12月——也就是几个月前——Oculus才推出Touch手柄，这才勉强跟上Vive的手部控制器水平。

But again, with these two key innovations that Oculus doesn't have and it's not until December 2016, so just a few months ago now, that Oculus finally brings out their touch controllers which brings them closer to parity with the the hand controllers of of the Vive.

对。

Yeah.

你知道吗？

And you know what?

我之前提到过，Crescent Bay 让我意识到，VR 就是科技界的下一场巨浪。

I mentioned earlier that the Crescent Bay woke me up to the idea that that VR is a, you know, the next tidal wave in technology.

我觉得下一个重大突破，就是我第一次体验 Vive 的时候。

I'd say the next step function was that was the first time I tried the Vive.

我记得有个应用，好像是谷歌做的，能用控制器在三维空间里画画。

Think that there there was a thing I think Google might have even made it, but it was a thing where you could paint and you use the controllers to paint.

Tilt Brush。

Tilt brush.

对。

Yes.

Tilt Brush。

Tilt brush.

没错。

Yeah.

然后

And then

那简直太酷了。

there was Super cool.

只能说是在VR里玩MS Paint，没别的形容了。

It's like MS Paint in VR is the only way to describe it.

那是个独立公司，由两位开发者创办，后来被谷歌收购了。

It was an independent company, a couple developers, and Google ended up acquiring it.

哦，真不错。

Oh, nice.

真棒。

Nice.

太好了。

Nice.

所以那个演示之后，还有一个在厨房里的场景，你进去之后得像这样，

So there's that demo and then there's one in a kitchen where like you go in and you're supposed to like,

开始做模拟操作。

you know, start making simulator.

是的。

Yeah.

但说到底，你真的可以随便乱来，比如抓起锅碗瓢盆往墙上扔，把一整辆装满餐具的推车直接掀翻在地，结果啥事没有，这种体验简直太刺激了。

But really what ends up happening is, like, you can just mess every like, you can just pick up pans and heave it at a wall and knock the like, this is incredibly thrilling experience of, like, throwing an entire rolling cart full of dishes on the ground and having no consequences.

我觉得那是我第一次待在里面半小时，感觉却像只过了五到十分钟，而且是我头一回真不想出来。

I'd say that that was the first time where like, I think I was in that thing for like a half hour, it felt like five to ten minutes and that was the first time where like I legitimately didn't want to leave.

那是我第一次真觉得，哦，这东西肯定会让人上瘾。

Like that was the first time where I was like, oh people are gonna get real addicted to this.

对。

Yeah.

对没接触过VR、甚至还没试过的听众来说，我真心觉得值得一试。

And that's, you know, I'd say for our listeners that aren't into VR, maybe haven't even tried it yet, you know, find it's worth it.

如果你关心科技，想知道未来哪些趋势会爆发，那就别犹豫，找朋友借一台，或者去附近有Vive设备的风投公司，亲自体验几个应用。

You owe it to yourself if you care about technology and thinking about where waves are gonna, you know, break in the future, go find a friend or or go to your local venture capital firm that has a Vive installed and try out a few things.

试试Tilt Brush。

Try out Tilt Brush.

这真的会让你想起第一次在电脑上用画图软件的时候。

It's really, you know, it'll take you back to the first time you used MS Paint on a PC.

如果你像我和本一样年纪大了，我最近最钟爱的VR应用和游戏，是我们朋友在Rec Room做的。

If you're old like me and Ben, try out there's this my favorite favorite app and game is in VR these days is by by our friends over at Rec Room.

Rec Room是西雅图一家非常出色的公司。

Rec Room is a really amazing company in Seattle.

要形容Rec Room，最好的方式就是你自己去玩一次，玩完你就会明白VR的潜力。

And and the best I can describe Rec Room is you you just have to play it yourself and you'll you'll be a believer about the potential of VR.

这让我想起小时候第一次玩《黄金眼64》，那是我人生中第一个第一人称射击3D游戏，而Rec Room比那有意思多了，但光是那份纯粹的快乐，就已经值了。

But that's like the first time I played Golden Eye 64 as a kid and had my first, you know, like shooter three d video game experience and Rec Room is so much more than that, but just that pure fun, it's it's great.

是的。

Yeah.

原因在于——我们待会儿会细说——我觉得这也是Facebook押注的方向，扎克伯格说过一句话，我念一下。

And the reason is, and we'll get into this, and and I think this is part of Facebook's bet is, you know, Facebook I think Zuckerberg let me read the quote real quick.

他一再强调，VR会成为最社交的平台。

He, he's over and over again said VR is gonna be the most social platform.

我觉得Rec Room最酷的地方就是，你进去之后就是随便逛逛、放松一下。

And I think the super cool thing about Rec Room is, like, you're in there just hanging out.

你在房间里打彩弹、做各种活动，能玩的东西特别多，但核心就是跟别人待在一起，感觉就像真正在现实生活中聚会一样。

You're doing all sorts you're in a room, you're playing paintball, you're there's, like, all these different activities you can do, but it's all centered around, like, you're just, like, hanging out with other people as if it was sort of real life.

我后面想深入聊聊科技趋势的一个点是：你觉得VR的杀手级应用，是不是就是社交功能？

And one thing I want to dissect later in the tech themes is, like, does that like, do do you agree that the, you know, killer killer app of VR is is a social one?

但Rec Room厉害的地方在于，你一试就忍不住说：哇。

But the cool thing about Rec Room is, like, when you when you try it, you're like, wow.

我真的就是在这儿跟人闲逛、消磨时间。

I really am just, like, hanging out in here.

我能跟别人在这儿待上好几个小时都不腻。

I could do this for hours with other people.

是的。

Yeah.

这让我想起，我第一次玩《黄金眼》时的感觉。

And that's what, you know, when I said it, it reminded me it reminds me of what it was like playing Golden Eye the first time.

《黄金眼》的单人战役嘛，还行吧。

Like, the single player campaign in Golden Eye, like, you know, it's fine.

就是那样吧。

It's whatever.

挺不错的。

It's good.

但《黄金眼》真正厉害的是和朋友一起玩，互相调侃，我在高中和大学时跟朋友们一玩就是好几个小时，那感觉就跟现在玩Rec Room一模一样。

But, like, Golden Eye was all about playing with your friends and everything, like, all the talking smack and and, you know, the hours and hours and hours I spent in high school and college with my friends playing that, you know, that's what rec room is like.

真的让人感觉像是看到了未来的模样。

And, it it really feels like a glimpse into the future.

没错。

Yep.

各位听众，

Alright, listeners.

现在正是感谢我们最爱的一家公司的好时机，他们对《Acquired》节目的制作至关重要，那就是Anthropic，以及他们最新的旗舰模型Claude Opus 4.6。

Now is a great time to thank one of our favorite companies and one that has become essential to how we make Acquired, Anthropic, and their newest flagship model, Claude Opus 4.6.

我们在这里的Acquired总部一直在大量使用它。

Which we have been making heavy use of here at Acquired HQ.

我刚在西雅图为新的Acquired演播室租了间场地。

I actually just, leased some space for the new Acquired studio here in Seattle.

太棒了。

Woo.

当房东发来一份很简单的租赁合同时，我以为这种合同我自己就能搞定。

And when the landlord sent over a a pretty simple lease, I thought, oh, this is totally something I can review myself.

我看了几眼，但后来还是觉得，得找人帮我确认一下才放心。

I looked at it, but then I also thought, okay, I could use a sanity check.

于是我把它上传给了Claude，问它有没有什么需要注意的地方，或者条款前后矛盾、需要我争取修改的地方。

So, I uploaded it to Claude and asked if there was anything that I should be mindful of or inconsistencies or or anything I should push back on.

结果Claude真找出了三个我完全没注意到的问题。

And Claude actually found three things that I totally missed on my own review.

太厉害了。

It's amazing.

你跟我提过这事。

You told me about that.

我在这儿也经常用它来写节目笔记。

I've actually been using it a lot here for writing show notes.

我写剧本的时候，动不动就写个五六十页，甚至七十页，细节太多，自己都陷在里面了，根本看不清重点，所以每次写节目笔记时，我都需要别人帮我理清主线。

I end up with so much detail in my, like, fifty, sixty, 70 page script documents that I'm, like, way too close to the material, and I need a fresh set of eyes for what the big points are as I write up the show notes for each episode.

我也是用它做了类似的事。

And, I used it for something similar too.

我们筹备超级碗创新峰会的时候，让Claude回溯了我们以前的NFL节目，查了那些数据后来有哪些变化，然后跟我一起核对，看看这些变化会不会影响我们原来的结论。

When we were preparing for our Super Bowl Innovation Summit, I had Claude go back through our old NFL episode and search the web for what numbers had actually changed since then, then go through it with me and figure out, if that changed any of our older conclusions.

没错。

Yep.

正如Anthropic说的，Claude是给那些不满足于‘差不多就行’的人用的AI。

As Anthropic puts it, Claude is the AI for minds that don't stop at good enough.

它是个真正懂你整个工作流程、能跟你一起思考的搭档。

It's the collaborator that actually understands your entire workflow and thinks with you.

无论你是在午夜调试代码，还是在规划下一个商业决策，Claude都能帮你拓展思路，直击你真正关心的问题。

Whether you're debugging code at midnight or strategizing your next business move, Claude extends your thinking to tackle the problems that matter to you.

无论你是在推出下一个重磅产品，还是应对需要深度思考的难题，Claude Opus 4.6都会和你一起梳理复杂性，而不是替你做决定。

So whether you are shipping the next great product or tackling problems that need deep thinking, Claude Opus four point six thinks through complexity with you, not for you.

它是你聪明的思考伙伴。

It's your intelligent thinking partner.

如果你准备好了迎接更大的挑战，现在就去 claude.ai/acquired 开始使用 Claude 吧。

So if you're ready to tackle bigger problems, get started with Claude today at claude.ai/acquired.

如果你还想了解他们的企业级服务，直接告诉他们，是Ben和David推荐的。

And if you wanna explore their enterprise offerings, just tell them that Ben and David sent you.

嘿，Acquired的听众们。

Hey, acquired listeners.

我来快速更新一下情况。

I'm jumping in with a quick update.

接下来我们会聊聊Oculus现在的状况，以及团队最近的一些动态。

In the next section, we talk about where Oculus is today and recent events involving the team.

在录制和发布这一期节目之间，发生了一些重大消息，所以我来告诉大家，Oculus的创始人帕默·拉基已经离开了Facebook。

There was some pretty big news between recording and releasing this episode, so I'm here to tell you Oculus founder Palmer Luckey has left Facebook.

3月30日，Facebook确认了他离职的消息，而在此之前，Facebook已经很久没有提及帕默了。

On March 30, Facebook confirmed his departure following a long stretch of Facebook being very quiet about Palmer.

这发生在他在是否资助名为‘Nimble America’的亲特朗普组织一事上先是否认、后又承认，随后又缺席了Oculus的开发者大会之后。

This came after he denied and then confirmed reports of funding a pro Trump organization called Nimble America, and then did not appear at Oculus' developer conference.

好了，我们回到正常的节目内容。

Now back to our regularly scheduled programming.

好的。

Okay.

那我们来最后梳理一下历史和事实。

So let's finish up, history and facts.

大卫，你来给我们讲讲过去半年到一年里发生的事，然后我们再进入收购部分，怎么样？

You wanna David, do you wanna take us to, like, the recent events of the last last six months to a year, and then we'll go on to acquisition category?

我觉得我们差不多已经讲过了。

Well, I think we've kinda done that.

我们能说到这儿。

We can go this far.

我是说，从人员安排上来说。

I guess, mean, personnel wise.

所以，Facebook 呢。

So, so Facebook yeah.

对。

Yeah.

随着 Oculus 越来越融入 Facebook，发生了很多挺有意思的事。

I mean, there's been some really interesting things that have happened as Oculus starts to merge more into Facebook.

Palmer Luckey 已经不再是 Oculus 的 CEO 了，但还在 Facebook 做其他项目。

So, Palmer Luckey is no longer the CEO of Oculus, but is still at Facebook working on things.

而且

And

其实是 Brandon。

it's actually, Brandon.

所以帕尔默从来就不是CEO。

So Palmer was never the CEO.

对。

Right.

不好意思。

Sorry.

抱歉。

Sorry.

布兰登·伊里贝确实辞去了CEO职位。

Brendan Iribe, yep, stepped down as CEO.

他现在负责Oculus的PC部门，也就是Rift这一块。

He's now managing Oculus' PC division, which is basically the Rift.

对，没错。

Right, right.

而帕尔默也一样，现在在Facebook，名义上有个头衔。

And then Palmer similarly is at Facebook, kind of title lists.

所以现在Facebook内部Oculus的发展方向，其实是越来越融入公司整体了。

And, so the way you can kind of think of of what's going on at at Facebook right now is Oculus is getting more integrated.

虽然还是有个Oculus团队在做Oculus Rift，

There's still the Oculus group that makes the Oculus Rift.

但Facebook内部还有好几个独立的VR团队。

Facebook has more independent VR teams.

有做PC端VR的，有做移动端VR的，而且你也看到了，舞台上展示过那些非常社交化的VR体验，这可能就是Facebook未来在VR领域的样子。

There's a PC VR, mobile VR, and you know, obviously we've seen the there's been demos on stage of these incredibly social experiences that may be the future of what Facebook looks like in VR.

他们确实在继续出货Rift，但很明显，跟Instagram和WhatsApp不一样，这两者一直保持独立，

And, and you know, they're they're they're shipping the the Rift, but it's very clear that whereas with Instagram and WhatsApp, they stay very separate.

而Oculus这个收购项目，他们正在深度整合，越来越像公司的一个部门，而不是独立运营的公司。

Oculus is an acquisition where they're getting much tighter integration with the company and, and it looks a lot more like a division than it does a separate company.

最明显的标志就是，整个团队，或者至少一大部分人，已经从尔湾搬走了，

And one huge marker of that is the the whole team or at least a good chunk of the team moved from Irvine Yep.

搬到了门洛帕克。

Up to Menlo.

是的

Yep.

Oculus的总部现在就在门洛帕克，和Facebook其他部门在一起。

Oculus' headquarters is now in in Menlo Park with the rest of the Facebook campus.

但我觉得这正好能过渡到收购这个话题。

But I think that's a perfect transition to acquisition category.

对我来说，这明显是个业务线收购——你可能会问Ben怎么看，但我觉得很清楚，这是在进入一个全新的产品和平台，不是Facebook现有业务线的延伸。

And I think for me, clearly this is is well, you're curious what you will say Ben but to me it's clearly a business line acquisition.

有意思的是，他们一开始照搬了老办法，想让团队完全独立、完全自主，尤其是把他们放在南加州，保持距离。

Mean this is a new product, new platform, not part of the existing wave that Facebook is on that they're buying and I think, you know, was interesting that they initially kept, they tried to run the playbook of keeping the team totally separate and totally autonomous and in particular, you know, kinda at arm's length the way down in Southern California.

但后来效果并不理想，被Valve赶超了，现在他们决定要更深入地把Oculus整合进Facebook的整个体系。

But then that didn't work out quite so well as they got ended around it by Valve, and now they're moving it much more in you know, moving to integrate it much more deeply into the rest of Facebook company.

我完全不同意。

Disagree entirely.

我特别喜欢这个做法。

I love it.

我觉得这是一次技术收购。

It's I think it's a technology acquisition.

我倒觉得，一开始的信号更像是想把它当成一个独立的业务线，让它自己赚钱。

I would I would say that the signaling initially could could lean more to our business line of keeping it separate, of it being its own revenue generator.

但在我看来，这其实是为保护Facebook的网络和现有商业模式打的一场防御战。

But to me this is a defensive play on protecting the network that Facebook has and their existing business model.

对他们来说，他们看到的是，VR显然是未来的发展方向。

I think that for them, they looked at this and said, okay, VR is clearly the future.

他们必须确保自己能在未来的主流技术平台上占有一席之地，否则现在就面临风险——别人把硬件和平台都建好了，而他们却什么都没搭上，到时候连话语权都没有。

We need to make sure that we have a position on the dominant technology platform of the future, and we are right now at risk of other people building all the hardware and the platforms and us being having nothing to do with it and then having no leverage in making sure that we have a dominant position on that platform.

Facebook根本不在乎卖Oculus Rift给用户的那一块业务。

And Facebook has seen they've seen like, I guess the point I'm making is they don't care about the business line of selling Oculus Rifts to people.

他们环顾四周，意识到一个问题：我们其实根本没直接掌握任何用户的联系。

And I think that they've looked around and seen, crap, we don't actually own the direct relationship with any of our users.

他们现在的位置有点微妙，毕竟大家确实还在用Facebook。

They're in a slightly tenuous position where, you know, people are, you know, into Facebook.

他们每天都离不开，这已经成为生活中不可或缺的一部分，提供了大量实用功能，但他们都是通过苹果或安卓设备来使用的。Facebook 曾拼命想推出自己的手机，但失败了。

They're they're on it all the time, they're on it every day, it's an essential part of people's lives and provides a ton of utility, but they access it through either their Apple device, their Android device, they Facebook desperately tried to make their own phone, that didn't work.

Facebook 处于一个有点被动的位置，因为他们并不直接拥有用户，或者说，不直接掌控那些广告客户所依赖的用户关系。

Like Facebook is in a little bit of a tenuous position in not directly owning their customers and or at least not directly owning the users that their advertising customers monetize.

我认为，Oculus 就是他们抢先一步的举措，确保在这一注定成为未来计算平台的技术上，不会被别人抢走主导权——万一别人决定不把 Facebook 纳入用户最常用的平台，那他们就彻底被动了。

And I think what Oculus is is them trying to get out ahead and making sure that with this technology that clearly evolves to be the future of computing that they aren't gonna be upended by by someone else who decides that, we're not gonna prioritize Facebook on the platform where all the users are.

本，你一针见血。

Ben, think you hit the nail on the head.

关键在于掌控下一代用户入口的客户关系，而目前他们还没有做到。

It's about owning the customer relationship at the point of access in the next wave which they don't right now.

现在做这个节目挺有意思的，尤其是刚过了 Snap 的上市，但眼下真不好下定论。

You know, it's fun doing this episode right now and in particular after the Snapchat IPO but it's hard to judge right now.

要是他们当初真坚持把 Oculus 单独运营，那现在肯定算失败了。

Like, think if they had kept in fully in that, oh, we're gonna keep it separate mindset, this would be a failure.

但现在他们开始深度整合了，我觉得这步棋走对了。

But now that they're starting to integrate it more deeply, that feels like the right approach to me at this point.

是的。

Yeah.

这已经是第三次我提前涉足科技话题了，但我想说一下：我觉得Facebook要是能把Oculus单独保留，作为一个独立部门，和Facebook之间设一道防火墙，反而会更好。因为Facebook本质上是一家横向公司。

So let me this is the third time I've dangerously danced into tech themes ahead of schedule, but let me throw something out there that I think Facebook would be much better off keeping them separate and keeping it like its own little division with a kind of a firewall between Oculus and and Facebook, because as they so Facebook is a horizontal company.

Facebook必须确保自己能平等出现在每一个平台上，就像谷歌需要尽可能多的用户一样，它们需要的是规模和覆盖面。

Facebook needs to make sure that they are on every single platform in the same way, so that the most users in the same way that Google needs the most users, they need scale, can get access to it.

一旦它们开始把这两者深度融合，风险就来了——可能会把Facebook的功能做成Oculus独占，而不放到Vive或者其他任何平台上。

And the closer they start to integrate these things, the more the danger comes up of them prioritizing Facebook features to be Oculus only and not putting them on the Vive or whatever other platforms come to be.

我觉得，当你在这样的公司里工作时，很容易搞不清楚到底该优先做什么。

And I think that's a really when you're an employee at a company like that, you start to get confused as to what the priorities are.

是的。

Yeah.

我记得在微软的时候，最后就会陷入一种局面，

Like I remember being at Microsoft You end up

就像iMessage那样，对吧？

with an iMessage situation, right?

没错。

Totally.

我亲身经历过类似的情况，比如几年前在微软的时候，如果你在Office团队，总会听到一种说法：Office是个独立且至关重要的业务，甚至可能是最重要的。

And and one that I've experienced personally is like, you know, when you're at Microsoft, like at least a few years ago, it wasn't if you're in Office, you hear the message that Office is an important business on its own, maybe the most important.

但后来却发生了一些事，比如我们不把Office推出到iPad上，只是为了给Surface争取先发优势，让Office只在自家平台上出现。

But then things happen where, like, we don't ship Office for iPad because we want to give the Surface a head start and be the only platform with, you know, with with Office on it.

所以，Office是跨平台的，Windows是垂直的，把这个逻辑套用到Facebook身上，就是Facebook是跨平台的，Oculus是垂直的。

And so with Office being horizontal, Windows being a vertical, we take this over to Facebook and say Facebook is the horizontal and Oculus is the vertical.

除非Facebook真觉得Oculus会成为唯一能触达用户的VR平台，否则这么早做深度整合风险太大。

It seems like unless Facebook is is believes that the Oculus will be or the, you know, Facebook VR will be the only VR platform where they will need to reach users.

我觉得他们真得好好想想，怎么确保不会把Facebook的功能优先放在Oculus上。

It seems really dangerous to start doing integration and I would argue that they they really need to figure out how to make sure that they're not prioritizing Facebook for Oculus.

这其实引出了节目里特别有意思的部分——我们之前聊过，Snap明显在认真思考他们的未来，不管是增强现实、虚拟现实，还是你叫它什么的混合现实。

This gets into the really interesting part of the show which is, you know, we talked about how Snap is clearly thinking about their future and what that's gonna look like in a whatever augmented virtual mixed whatever you wanna call it reality perspective.

顺带一提，我可能在《科技趋势》里再聊这个：只要大家还在争论该叫它什么名字，那就还没形成真正的浪潮。

Total aside, I might talk about this in tech themes but as long as we're like as long as people are debating what to call something, it's not a wave yet.

真正的浪潮还没来，除非手机就是单纯的手机。

The wave has not yet broken until, like, phones are just phones.

说到PDA或者智能手机？不，那不算。

When you're talking about, like, PDAs or smartphones, like, no.

等它们真的只是手机了，等眼镜也成了纯粹的眼镜，那时候才算真正到了。

You know, once they're just phones, once it's just, like, your glasses, then we'll be there.

但大卫，现在的浪潮就是VR、AR、MR啊。

But David, the the wave is v r a r m r slash slash slash.

没错，就是这么回事。

Slash slash slash.

但浪潮的爆发显然正在逼近，Snap在布局，苹果在布局，Valve的产品已经相当成功，甚至可能比Oculus还更受欢迎。

But the breaking of the wave is clearly coming and Snap's working on it, Apple's working on it, Valve has a very successful, arguably more successful than Oculus product in the market.

那Facebook到底该怎么做？

So what should Facebook do?

对。

Yeah.

我的意思是，他们其实可以做的一件事是，干脆换个思路，想想如果没有这么做，情况会怎样。

I mean, well, one thing you could argue they could do is what if they didn't actually, let's move into what would have happened otherwise.

要是他们没收购Oculus，而是想办法让Facebook在所有这些平台上都表现得特别出色呢？

What if they didn't buy Oculus, but they found a way to make sure that Facebook was great on all of these platforms?

他们怎么才能获得足够的影响力，确保自己在VR用户中拥有顶级的地位？

Like, how do they get the leverage to make sure that they have a first class relationship with customers of of VR?

还是说，他们非得自己拥有一个平台，才能安心投入巨资，把这一个VR平台做到极致？但同时还得克制住，绝不能偏袒Oculus的业务。

Or do they actually have to own one of them to, like, have an insurance policy that, you know, they're gonna invest a ton of money in making this single VR platform really great, but somehow they're gonna have the the restraint to never prioritize the Oculus business.

是的。

Yeah.

我不确定。

I don't know.

我觉得你刚才问的这个问题，我们真该请本·汤普森来聊聊。

I mean, think it's the question you were asking, which, I feel like we need to get Ben Thompson on this show to discuss.

Facebook能不能同时做好一个横向平台和一个垂直业务？

Like, can Facebook be a horizontal and a vertical business at the same time?

说实话，我没见过谁真能做成这种事。

I mean, I don't know anybody that's ever succeeded at that.

得有极大的克制才行啊。

With with great restraint, man.

你得让所有员工都清楚，Oculus 就是个保险机制。

Like, you just gotta make it so clear to all of your employees that, like, Oculus is an insurance policy.

Oculus 确实得做得很棒，但咱们的核心业务始终是 Facebook。

And, like, Oculus needs to be really great, but we all but like the main business is Facebook.

它可是印钞机，只要别搞砸了，钱就会一直赚下去。

Like it it mints money and it's gonna continue to make money as long as we don't screw it up.

是啊。

Yeah.

理论上说起来当然简单。

I mean, easy to say in theory.

对吧？

Right?

我真的从来没见这种情况发生过。

Like, I've literally never seen that happen before.

我觉得你很难让优秀的员工接受这一点。

I don't know that you could sell great employees on that.

对吧？

Right?

如果你是最顶尖的VR开发者，我才不干呢。

Like, if you're if you're the best VR developer, screw that.

我就去Valve了。

I'm going to Valve.

是的。

Yeah.

好吧。

Well, okay.

这里有个可能的反例，我们之前在节目里聊过，就是安卓。

Here here's a, here's a potential counterfactual, one we've covered on this show, Android.

谷歌是一家横向公司。

So Google's a horizontal company.

谷歌搜索和谷歌的服务，比如邮箱、地图这些，在iOS和Android上体验都很好，这很明显。

Google search and Google services, Gmail maps, whatnot, work great on iOS as on Android, obviously.

我觉得现在这一点已经很清楚了，就像我们之前那期聊过的，手机平台之争已经结束了，谷歌内部所有人都一致同意，要让这些服务在所有平台上都做到最好，但他们还是保留了Android。

And I think it's pretty clear at this point, you know, like we talked about on that episode, the mobile wars are over and that everybody within Google is aligned on making those services work great across all platforms and yet they still have Android.

但我觉得Android最关键的一点是，谷歌自己并不生产安卓手机。

But now here's what's key about Android I think to my mind, Google doesn't make Android phones.

我的意思是，现在情况有点变化，但对吧？

I mean that's changing a little bit, but right?

但他们的整体策略一直是把软件推出去，把操作系统放出去，让其他合作伙伴去打造优秀的硬件，把产品送到用户手里，用Android来确保我们能持续把谷歌的服务带给所有平台的用户。

But like the whole strategy was get the software out there, get the operating system, let other people, let other ecosystem partners build a great hardware and get it in the hands of people and that use use Android as a way to make sure that we are gonna be able to continue deliver to deliver these great Google services to everybody across all platforms.

第一，你觉得这个策略可行吗？

A, do you think that's that was the you know, that that's a viable strategy?

第二，Facebook能这么做吗？

B, can Facebook do that?

这策略完全可行。

Totally a viable strategy.

对我而言，最关键的一点是，Android 本身并不赚钱。

Very interesting to like, the main takeaway for me is Android itself doesn't make money.

但它让谷歌不用把钱给苹果这样的公司，没错。

It prevents Google from having to give money to other people like Apple Yep.

但他们的支出中——

Out of its out

但正如我们之前说的，他们确实给了苹果一大笔钱。

But of its they do give, as we talked about, a lot of money to Apple.

对。

Yes.

如果没有 Android，谷歌给苹果的钱可能会多好几倍。

But they could give many times more money to Apple if Android didn't exist.

对听众来说，这指的是搜索收入分成，也就是谷歌把搜索带来的收入分给各个平台。

And and for listeners that's the of the, search engine, affiliate revenues that they they pay out to wherever the search originates from.

是的

Yeah.

谷歌每年向苹果支付数十亿美元，以确保谷歌成为iPhone上的默认搜索引擎。

So Google pays on the order of a billion dollars or more every year to Apple in order that Google remains the default search engine on the iPhone.

而且这不仅仅是固定付款，苹果实际上还能分得一部分AdWords的收入。

And and they actually it's not just like a straight payment, it's that Apple actually gets a cut of AdWords revenue.

也就是说，iPhone上的搜索广告收入，苹果会按比例分成。

So it's like a variable rev share for AdWords that are served on searches on the iPhone.

没错。

Yeah.

当苹果确实挺好的。

Good good to be Apple there.

所以我觉得

So I think that

当谷歌也不错。

Hey, it's good to be Google.

你拥有有史以来最棒的商业模式。

You've got the best business model of all time.

没错。

Yeah.

至于安卓的策略，其实完全可以像开发Oculus OS那样，搞个参考设计，然后让第三方来生产硬件，就像安卓当年那样。

So the the Android strategy, I mean, totally could build like Oculus OS and then have a reference design and then do the same thing that Android did and have have third parties build the hardware.

也就是说，Daydream就是这么回事吗？

I mean, is is, is that what Daydream is?

谷歌是不是也在用同样的方式做Daydream VR？

Is Google sort of do do taking that approach with, Daydream VR?

是的。

Yeah.

我对这个了解不多，不敢肯定，但我觉得差不多，只是它依赖的是安卓手机作为运行平台。

I don't know enough about it to say for sure, but I I believe it is similar except that it's on Android phones that are powering it.

所以这里有个不一样的地方。

So there is there is that wrinkle.

至少就我了解，它不是那样的，Daydream不是这种模式。

It's not like it's a, it's not like Daydream as far as I know.

可能我搞错了，但我觉得Daydream应该没法在iOS系统上运行。

I could be wrong, but I don't believe Daydream is gonna work on like iOS.

你说得没错。

I think you're right.

回到你刚才说的那个点，我其实不太觉得，只做VR软件层、把硬件都交给别人做，能给谷歌或者Meta带来多少好处。

So getting back to the other point that you're making though, like, I'm I'm not sure it actually buys Google or Facebook much to build the sort of VR software layer and then let someone else do the hardware.

没准还真就是这样呢。

I mean, that maybe it does.

我也不太确定。

I don't know.

我还没认真琢磨过这个问题。

I haven't I haven't actually really thought through that.

不过很明显，Valve走的就是这个路子，他们一直靠Steam盈利，而且Steam会适配所有的Vive设备；HTC那边呢，就全权扛下硬件研发的所有难题、风险和成本。

I mean, clearly, that's the approach that Valve is sort of taking that, like, they're gonna continue to make money from Steam, and Steam is gonna be on all of the the Vives and like HTC, you take on all that that hardware difficulty and risk and and and cost for for making the hardware.

这让我想起来一点，你刚才提起来我才想到，这其实也跟微软有点像，对吧？

Well, it reminds me a little bit, I hadn't thought about this until you brought it up a couple minutes ago, but I think it kinda comes back to Microsoft too, right?

微软当年做个人电脑就是这么干的。

Like, that's what Microsoft did with the PC Yeah.

他们开发操作系统，然后免费给所有人用，迅速普及开来。

Which was build the operating system, give it to everybody, get it out there.

苹果当然也有它的位置，这也没错。

You know, and you know, Apple wasn't, you know, that's great that Apple exists, right?

我们也会为Mac开发Office，但会故意把它做得差一点。

Like, we'll make, we'll make Office for for Mac too, you know, and we'll cripple it, you know.

但我觉得，像微软和Windows、谷歌和Android，这种模式其实有很多成功案例。

But but I think, you know, there there are plenty of examples whether it's Microsoft and Windows or Google and Android of that type of approach working.

真正出问题的是，当你想同时做垂直和横向整合的时候，就像Office for iPad那样。

It's when you then cross over into trying to be both vertical and horizontal that you get the Office for iPad situation.

对。

Yeah.

说到底，问题还是回到这一点。

I mean, think it keeps coming down to this.

他们得想明白一件事，谷歌花了好几年才搞清楚：Android 的存在是为了支撑搜索广告业务。

They just have to figure out a way, and Google took years to do this to be clear that Android exists to power the search advertising business.

它本身必须是个一流、出色的系统，才能让人愿意用，毕竟市场竞争激烈，但它本身并不是谷歌的主要收入来源。

And it has to be first class and a great OS on its own to have people use it, because it's in a competitive landscape, but like, it doesn't exist on its own to be Google's main revenue stream.

Facebook 也得对 Oculus 做同样的事，希望这条路别再那么折腾了。

And Facebook's just gonna have to do the same thing with Oculus, and hopefully there's less tumult on the way to get there.

那要是没这么做，会怎样呢？

So what would have happened otherwise?

我们现在其实就处在这种情况：如果 Oculus 没被 Facebook 收购，它会变成什么样？

I mean, we're kind of in this section right now, but where, you know, if Oculus doesn't land at Facebook, what happens to it?

这是个好问题，毕竟他们之前快速融了很多钱，但要走到今天这一步，还需要更多资金。

Well, that's a really good question because they'd raised a lot of money really quickly, but it was gonna take a lot more money to get to where we are now.

很明显，如果 Facebook 没收购 Oculus， Valve 可能会继续和 Oculus 合作，而不是自己单干。

And clearly, I mean, I think if if Facebook doesn't acquire Oculus, there's a chance that maybe Valve continues to partner with Oculus and doesn't go off on its own.

但如果Valve真的选择自立门户，而Oculus还保持独立运营的话，那Oculus肯定得想别的出路。毕竟Valve那种大公司能投入的资源和资金规模，是开发这类新技术的巨大优势，当时他们的实力完全能把Oculus彻底比下去，你懂的。

However, if given that they did and if they had and Oculus was still alone and independent, you know, they would have had to do something because we saw with the execution that Valve had, when you bring the resources and the huge amounts of money that a corporation like them can to building new technology like that, they they were just gonna blow Oculus out of the water, you know.

Oculus能撑到现在，大概率就是靠Facebook给的资源撑着的。

Oculus probably only was able to hang on because it had Facebook's resources.

所以我觉得Oculus要一直完全独立运营，基本很难做到，对。

So I think it's it's hard to imagine Oculus remaining an independent company, fully independent company Yeah.

倒也不是说完全没可能，就像我们之前聊过的Snapchat、还有优步和滴滴那样，现在这个时代确实能筹到天量的资金。

Without needing to I mean, I guess as we've talked about with both Snapchat and Uber and Didi, it is possible to raise huge sums of money these days.

但其实这不单单是钱的问题，还得有能力谈下合适的OEM合作，你想想苹果花了多少年、投入了多少精力才打造出自己的供应链。

But I think it's not just about the money too, it's about being able to get the right OEM partnerships, you know, the right think about how much, how many years and how much effort Apple has invested in creating their supply chain.

放在现在的市场竞争环境里，很难想象一家初创公司能做成这些事。

You know, the idea that a startup would be able to do that within a competitive landscape is hard to imagine these days.

对。

Yep.

没错。

Yep.

实际上，帕尔默·拉奇有一句话说得特别好。

And actually here's a great quote from Palmer Luckey.

他说，如果没有被收购，我们现在大概落后五年，这主要得益于Facebook提供的资源，帮助我们改进硬件技术，同时吸引开发者为平台制作游戏和视频内容。

He said, I'd say we are five years ahead of where we would have been without the acquisition, pointing to the resources needed to improve the hardware technology as well as encourage software developers to build games and videos to watch on it.

可以说，如果没有这次收购，我们根本不可能在五年，甚至十年内达到这个水平。

There's a strong argument to be made, we would never have gotten there in five or even ten years.

还有一个关键点，Facebook的品牌效应也大大增强了开发者为平台开发内容的网络效应。

And there's a great point that like the Facebook brand boosted the the network effect of developers making stuff for it too.

没错。

Yeah.

我们之前也聊过Rift硬件的演进过程。

And the we've sort of talked about the evolution of the Rift hardware.

DK1那时候简直像用胶带拼出来的，但到了DK2，再到后来的消费版，这些才是真正像样的消费级产品。

You know, the DK one was like one step past duct tape, but the DK the DK two, but then, you know, the consumer version like these are true good consumer products like

完全同意。

Totally.

就算有这么多钱，他们能造出来吗？

Even with a lot of money, would they been able to create that?

能。

Yep.

好吧。

Okay.

那如果……

So what would

简而言之，反过来想想呢？

what would real quick, what about the flip side of that?

如果没有Oculus，Facebook在VR领域会做成什么样？

What would Facebook have done in VR without Oculus?

其实，Facebook在VR领域也没做什么大事。

Well, Facebook still hasn't done much in VR.

但话说回来，这行业毕竟还太早期了，对吧？

But I mean, that's the other thing that, you know, it's just so early, right?

即使收购三年后，据估计VR用户数量还在快速增长，但我打赌，全球每天活跃的VR用户总数肯定远不到一百万。

Even three years later after the acquisition, best guesses are it's growing and growing quickly but I bet there are certainly still well less than a million active, you know, daily active VR users out there in the whole world.

是的。

Yeah.

你想想，移动设备的日活跃用户有六十亿，B是billion的那个b，数量级差太多了。

You know, compare that to like 6,000,000,000 daily active users, 6,000,000,000 with a b, you know, in mobile.

所以我觉得Facebook现在依然稳得很。

So I think Facebook is still totally fine.

对。

Yeah.

我也这么觉得。

I think so too.

这其实挺有意思，评价这笔收购时，他们已经为Oculus付了28亿美元，可就算没有它，Facebook也完全能过得很好——但这是一场长期押注。

Which is interesting to think about in grading the acquisition is, they've they've so far paid $2,800,000,000 for a thing that they would have been completely fine without, but it's a long bet.

没错。

Yep.

好的。

Okay.

科技趋势。

Tech themes.

我列了个单子，咱们先划掉那些已经聊过的，你知道，Facebook可不想像当年错过移动互联网那样，再被落下。

So the running through my list of of I'll just say, like, check next to the ones that we've really already talked about, but, you know, Facebook doesn't wanna left get left behind like they did with mobile.

划掉了。

Check.

这个我们已经聊过了。

Already talked about that.

掌握用户关系。

You know, owning the customer relationship.

行。

Okay.

我想跟你重点说说这一个。

Here's the one that I really wanna posit to you.

扎克伯格经常说，Facebook或者VR会成为最社交的平台。

So Zuckerberg often says that Facebook is going to be or VR is going to be the most social platform.

我很好奇，你觉得VR真的会朝这个方向发展吗？

And I'm curious, do you think that that's actually where where VR is headed?

还是说扎克伯格这么说，只是因为Facebook本来就是连接人的公司，声称要让世界更开放、更互联？

Or is Zuckerberg saying this because it's like a mash of like Facebook is the company that connects people and it makes the world a more open and connected place.

而且VR是未来。

Also, VR is the future.

所以我们必须把这两者硬凑在一起，毕竟我们的业务得在VR成为未来的世界里活下去。

So we therefore must mash these things together because, you know, our business must survive in the world where VR is the future.

还是说，这两者其实本来就能很好地结合在一起？

Or or is it or do they actually have a good confluence and work together well?

我觉得他这番话，可能是在为我接下来要说的做铺垫。

I think he's this is maybe foreshadowing my greeting.

我觉得他既完全正确，但Facebook和Oculus在这件事上的执行却很糟糕。

I think he is both a 100% right and Facebook and Oculus have executed poorly on it.

我觉得，如果你看看Snapchat所描绘的愿景——他们把自己定位成一家相机公司，这可能是我见过的最接近正常、最贴近我们讨论的真正趋势的例子。

You know, I think if you look at the vision that Snapchat is putting that Snap is putting forward of, you know, a camera company, right, which is the closest that I have seen to anything resembling, you know, normalcy and a true wave in what we're talking about.

就像我说的，真正的趋势不是所谓的VR、AR或MR，而是眼镜或者相机。

Because like I said, you know, the wave is not quote unquote VR or AR or MR, it's glasses or a camera.

是那种普通人，包括那些不听这个播客的人，都会用的东西。

It's something that real people everywhere are gonna use, people who don't listen to this podcast.

对。

Yeah.

我觉得他说得对。

And, so I think he's right.

如果你看看Snapchat，或者Rec Room，说实话，我觉得这个领域里最吸引人的地方，就是真正身临其境地和别人一起玩、一起做事。

And I think if you just look look at Snapchat or or look at Rec Room, honestly, you know, I mean, that to me is is what is the example of what's most compelling in this medium is actually being there and and playing with people or or doing things together with people.

所以我觉得他说得对。

So I think he's right.

但另一方面，如果你看看Oculus和Facebook过去几年的产品策略和历史，你会发现他们落后了，因为自然的手势在这件事上太关键了。

On the other hand, I think if you look at the product strategy and the history over the last couple years of what Oculus and Facebook have done, you know, they're behind because it's natural hand movements that are so important to that.

就是到处走动，像Valve在Vive上做的那些事，但Snapchat也做了类似的事——要让这玩意儿真正普及，就得彻底摆脱电脑。

It's walking around, it's the types of things that Valve has done with the Vive, but it's also what Snapchat's done which is like to really make this mainstream, you need to get out of the PC entirely.

对。

Mhmm.

你得让这东西变得让人在现实世界里愿意用，跟别人互动。

You need to make this something that people are gonna be open with in the real world, you know, interacting with other people.

没错。

Yep.

明白了。

Okay.

所以我觉得，我们已经聊了不少我的观点了。

So my I think we've talked about a bunch of my themes too.

只有一个我之前只是简单提过，但在这次思考和调研后特别清晰了，那就是Kickstarter。

The only one I would say, you know, that we just got a brief mention earlier in the episode but really came out for me thinking about this and doing the research is Kickstarter.

对吧？

Right?

像Oculus和Rift，它们不是第一个，但确实是最早从Kickstarter这个创意平台上脱颖而出的公司和产品之一。

Like Oculus and the Rift being one of the first, not the first, but one of the first really breakout companies slash products slash ideas to come out of creative endeavors to come out of the Kickstarter platform.

这让我想到科技领域一个深层的规律：只要你能打造一个平台，让别人发挥出你根本想不到的创造力，那往往就能成就非凡的东西。

And that reminds me of what I think is a deep theme in technology that anytime you can build a platform that enables other people's creativity in kinda ways that you would never imagine, that's a recipe for something special.

不管是操作系统，比如让开发者自由开发和分发应用的App Store、Windows或者苹果系统，还是Facebook，让每个人都能随意分享想写想说的内容，都是这样。

Whether that's an operating system enabling software developers to create and distribute anything like the App Store or like Windows or like Apple, whether that's Facebook, enabling anybody to share, you know, anything that they wanna write or say.

我觉得Kickstarter就是个特别棒的例子，它直接催生了Oculus。

You know, I think Kickstarter is just a really cool example of that and and led to Oculus.

没错。

Yep.

这个观点真的很到位。

I think it's a great point.

我们要不要给它打个分？

Should we grade it?

那就来吧。

Let's do it.

好的。

Alright.

我觉得你之前其实已经提到过这一点了，Facebook收购了VR领域的领军企业，还花了这么多钱，这个策略我觉得很棒。

So I, I think you're you're you foreshadowed this a little bit, but like the strategy of Facebook acquiring the preeminent VR company and paying a lot for that, I think is great.

就收购时的情况来看，我觉得这应该是个A。

So far, at the date of acquisition, I'm like this should be an A.

我觉得这完全说得通，Facebook确实得进入这个领域。

Like, I really feel this makes lots of sense to me, Facebook needs to be here.

但回头看这几年的发展，我得给这次收购打个C，当然，就像我们之前说的，这个评分波动很大。

I think in the last couple of years of where it's ended up, I'm going to go with a C for this acquisition, with, you know, as as we've said before, a high level of variance.

等将来我们再回过头看这次收购时，我完全愿意调整这个评分，而且我觉得它很可能真的会变。

So when we revisit this acquisition in years to come, very open to changing that, and I think it's very likely it will change.

但你想想，他们刚买下Oculus，一年后就冒出了一款远更出色的设备，别人想跟进其实并不难，尤其是那些早就对Oculus发展高度关注的人。

But, like, holy crap, they they they bought Oculus, and then a year later, a far superior, you know, piece of technology comes out, and it it didn't seem that hard for for someone else to pounce on it, and especially someone that was so interested in in the Oculus, in its development.

而且更让我不同意的是，Facebook非要让VR和自家平台绑得这么紧。

And then on top of that all, I really disagree with Facebook integrating VR tighter.

我觉得他们可能没意识到，Facebook 本质上应该是一个中立的平台，不能在 Oculus 上搞优先级倾斜。

Like, really think that that I think they're potentially at risk of of not, making sure that they understand that Facebook needs to be a a horizontal platform that that doesn't prioritize anything on Oculus.

Oculus 的员工应该明白，他们做的东西是为了确保 Facebook 未来不会被取代，但归根结底，Facebook 才是核心业务。

People that work at Oculus should view themselves as working on a thing that is that makes sure Facebook doesn't get unseated in the future, but ultimately, you know, Facebook is the business.

他们看待竞争对手，哪怕在 Oculus 工作，也该把 Snapchat 算上。

Like, they they should look at their competition as Snapchat even though they work at Oculus.

对。

Yep.

完全同意。

Totally agree.

你这番话真是说到点子上了。

I I think you've nailed it on this one.

我忍不住想起我们之前做亚马逊IPO那期的汤姆·阿尔伯格，他转述了贝索斯的一句话，特别经典：在科技行业，失败不可怕，可怕的是不敢尝试。

You know, the only I'm tempted to quote Tom from, our Tom Tom Alberg from our Amazon IPO episode himself quoting Jeff, which is just such a great line in in tech that Jeff's saying Bezos is saying that, you know, it's okay to fail at things, it's not okay not to try.

所以我觉得 Facebook 和马克·扎克伯格值得大加赞赏，他们敢于投入 VR，早早抓住了这个未来媒介的潜力。

So I wanna give Facebook and Mark Zuckerberg a ton of credit for, you know, trying here and and seeing, you know, the potential in VR as a future medium, and pouncing on it early.

但另一方面，他确实出手很早，可之后的执行却一直没跟上。

On the other hand, like, he pounced really early and execution has not been great since then.

所以，基于你刚才说的那些理由，我目前还是给个C吧。

So, for the same reasons as you've been, I'm I'm going with a c on this one so far.

是的。

Yeah.

或许这里有个更深层的问题：如果你要做一个需要覆盖全球所有联网用户的横向平台，那可能就不该自己掌控硬件。

And maybe there's a there's an abstraction here where we need to say, like, it turns out if you're a horizontal that needs to have scale and reach every Internet connected user in the world, then maybe you don't own the hardware platform.

而你想要触达所有人，风险就在于你未必能直接掌控用户关系，这一点必须接受。

And, like, a risk of your business of reaching everyone is that you don't, you you know, you don't necessarily own that direct customer relationship, and that just has to be okay.

这种模式本身就该把这一点当作默认前提。

Like that just has to be baked into these like mega horizontal scale models.

对。

Yep.

毕竟，Facebook怎么可能既占着蛋糕，又把蛋糕吃掉呢？

Because there's no way like could Facebook have its cake and eat it too?