第44集：美国在线与时代华纳（与《互联网历史播客》合作）

是的。

Yep.

这一趋势始于Web 2.0时代的公司，如Facebook、Netflix和Airbnb。

This trend started with web 2 dot o companies like Facebook and Netflix and Airbnb.

这些公司面临着一个问题。

Those companies faced a problem.

如何在员工规模扩张至数千人时，仍能保持快速、去中心化的产品与工程文化？

How do you maintain a fast, decentralized product and engineering culture while also scaling up to thousands of employees?

实验系统是这个答案的重要组成部分。

Experimentation systems were a huge part of that answer.

这些系统让这些公司的每个人都能获取全球范围内的产品指标，从页面浏览量到观看时长再到性能表现。

These systems gave everyone at those companies access to a global set of product metrics, from page views to watch time to performance.

每当团队发布新功能或产品时，他们都能衡量该功能对这些指标的影响。

And then every time a team released a new feature or product, they could measure the impact of that feature on those metrics.

因此Facebook可以设定一个公司级目标，比如增加应用使用时长，然后让各个团队自行探索实现方法。

So Facebook could set a company wide goal like increasing time in app and let individual teams go and figure out how to achieve it.

将这种做法推广到数千名工程师和产品经理中，就能实现指数级增长。

Multiply this across thousands of engineers and PMs, and boom, you get exponential growth.

难怪实验现在被视为必不可少的基础设施。

It's no wonder that experimentation is now seen as essential infrastructure.

是的。

Yep.

如今最优秀的产品团队，如Notion、OpenAI、Rippling和Figma，同样依赖实验。

Today's best product teams like Notion, OpenAI, Rippling, and Figma are equally reliant on experimentation.

但他们不再自行构建，而是直接使用Statsig。

But instead of building it in house, they just use Statsig.

而且他们不仅将Statsig用于实验。

And they don't just use Statsig for experimentation.

过去几年里，Statsig已添加了快速产品团队所需的所有工具，如功能开关、产品分析、会话回放等。

Over the last few years, Statsig has added all the tools that fast product teams need, like feature flags, product analytics, session replays, and more.

如果你想帮助团队的工程师和产品经理找到如何更快构建和做出更明智决策的方法，请访问statsig.com/acquired，或点击节目说明中的链接。

So if you would like to help your team's engineers and PMs figure out how to build faster and make smarter decisions, go to statsig.com/acquired, or click the link in the show notes.

他们提供非常慷慨的免费套餐、5万美元的初创企业计划，以及面向大公司的实惠企业合约。

They have a super generous free tier, a $50,000 startup program, and affordable enterprise contracts for large companies.

只要告诉他们是本和大卫推荐你来的。

Just tell them that Ben and David sent you.

有趣的是，这里有个转折点，因为他们与这些互联网公司做了大量交易，某种程度上能敏锐感知市场动向，可以最早察觉到资金开始枯竭的迹象——风投资金减少、IPO频频失败。

Well, interestingly enough to transition here, because they're doing all these deals with these .com companies, they have sort of their ears to the ground, and they can start to see when the money starts to dry up, VC money starts to dry up, IPOs start to go bust.

他们比任何人都更早意识到：听着，这个泡沫可能要破裂了。

They're the ones that know before anybody else that, listen, this bubble might be bursting.

那么从宏观经济角度来看，大卫，你可能更了解这方面情况。

And so And so what from like a sort of macroeconomic perspective, why are the David, you may actually know more about this.

比如，风投机构是否正在停止对该领域的投资？

Like, are the VCs ceasing to invest there?

那让他们停止投资的信号是什么？

So what's the signal to them to stop?

这很难说。

It's hard to say.

还是那句话，因为我们讨论的时间跨度实在太短了。

Again, because we're talking about such compressed timeframes here.

如果要我猜测的话，我认为可能是大量资金涌入系统却没有实际回报，所以开始触及资金池的底部了。

If I were to speculate, I think it's probably just that so much money had gone into the system without real returns and so you start getting to the bottom of the barrel.

嗯，其实就是这样。

Well actually that's it.

他们获得了巨额回报。

They got great returns.

再说一次，我手头没有其他资料，他们...

Again there's other things I don't have in front of me They're

超高回报。

super returns.

对，对，对。

Right, right, right.

但你看，对他们来说这无所谓，因为任何项目都能在一段时间内上市。

But see, them it doesn't matter because anything can IPO for a certain amount of time.

对吧？

Right?

所以一旦过了锁定期，你甚至可以把真正的垃圾公司上市，这都无所谓。

And so once you get past the lockup period, you can take actual garbage public and it doesn't matter.

对吧？

Right?

是啊。

Yeah.

我更多是从有限合伙人的角度来思考。

Was I thinking more from the limited partner perspective.

没错。

Yeah.

但你说的完全正确。

But what you said is exactly it.

当他们把垃圾公司上市时，最终所有东西都会变成垃圾。

Is that when they are taking garbage public, eventually everything is garbage.

已经有足够多的人变得足够富有和安逸，他们会想，你知道吗？

And enough people have kind of gotten rich enough and fat enough that they're like, know what?

这次我要袖手旁观了。

I'm gonna sit these out.

第七家宠物初创公司上市，这次我不参与了。

The seventh pets start up, I'm gonna sit this one out.

所以我的个人理论认为就是这样。

And so in my personal theory is that that was it.

同时也因为人们意识到在线广告的回报率不佳。

It's also a combination of people realizing that the returns on online advertising were not good.

点击率正在暴跌。

The click through rates are plummeting.

这一直是支撑广告费率的基础，就像是海洋中的浮游生物之类的。

So the actual that's always been such an underpinning of things like ad rates underpinning it's sort of like the plankton in the sea or whatever.

是啊。

Yeah.

嗯，我想这也是个关键点。

Well I guess that's a key point too.

我是说，我需要回头再讨论这个。

Mean I need to come back to it.

我确信这也起了很大作用——这些获得风投甚至上市的公司，把资金都投给了美国在线、雅虎等门户网站，期望能带来巨大点击量和收入。当预期落空时，它们就破产了，再没有资金继续投入。

I'm sure that had a lot to do with it too is these companies that have been venture funded and then even IPO ed had given all their money to AOL and Yahoo and other portals and with expectation that that would drive huge clicks and huge revenue and then when it doesn't then they go bankrupt and then there's no more money to feed into

还有1999年的超级碗，我记得当时有30家公司...也可能是2000家。

the Well there's also it's the nineteen ninety nine Super Bowl when I think there were 30 companies or maybe it was 2,000.

更合理的数字应该是2000家公司，每家支付200万美元买一个超级碗广告位。

It makes more sense that it was 2,000 that are paying $2,000,000 apiece for your one Super Bowl ad.

这对某些公司确实有效，比如著名的Hotjobs。

And that worked out for certain companies like Hotjobs famously.

但其他公司从此销声匿迹。

But then others you've never heard of again.

它们把融资1000万美元中的200万就这么烧光了。

And they blow their $2,000,000 of the $10,000,000 that they raised.

听着，它被称为狂热是有原因的。

And listen, there's a reason why it's called a mania.

派对后第二天会宿醉也是有原因的，因为你做了些疯狂的事。

There's a reason why after a party you have a hangover the next day because you did some crazy stuff.

但那就是那个时代。

But that was the times.

所以回到这个话题，正如我所说，他们比任何人都更早知晓，因为他们能亲眼目睹这一切。

So to come back to this, as I said, they know before anyone else because they can see this.

他们能看到，好吧，听着，医生。

They can see, well, listen, Doctor.

库普不会再进行新一轮融资了。

Coop's not going to raise another round.

所以当这笔交易三年后到期时，我们上哪儿再找个医生来？

So when that deal is up in three years or whatever it is, where are we going to get another Doctor.

库普？

Coop?

对吧？

Right?

所以早在...我想停下来提一下，有三本关于这个的好书。

So as early as and want to stop and mention there's three great books on this.

关于一个互联网时代的事物能有这么多书出版是很不寻常的。

It's unusual that there's been this many books written about a .com era thing.

有卡拉·斯威舍的《这里面肯定有小马驹》。

There's Kara Swisher's book, There Must Be a Pony in Here Somewhere.

有尼娜·蒙克的《愚人争先》。

There's Fools Rush In by Nina Monk.

还有亚历克斯·克莱恩的《偷走时间》。

And there's also Stealing Time by Alex Klein.

在其中一本书里，你能看到后来其他诉讼案件中的内部备忘录引文。

So in one of those, you can see and there's quotes from internal memos after other later lawsuits.

早在98年12月，内部邮件就显示史蒂夫·凯斯、皮特曼和其他高管们已经在讨论需要开始考虑一个安全的'睡莲叶'来让公司着陆，因为他们预见到泡沫即将破裂。

As early as December '8, internal emails show that Steve Case and Pittman and the other lieutenants are kicking around the idea that they need to start thinking about a safe lily pad to kind of land this company on because they're seeing the bubble bursting.

这是1998年12月8日。

So this is 'ninety eight, December '8.

但距离泡沫真正破裂还有18个月。

But so it's still another eighteen months before the bubble actually bursts.

所以他们考虑其他互联网公司。

So they think about other internet companies.

我们稍后会详细讨论这个。

And we'll get into this later.

但他们认真考虑过收购eBay。

But they seriously consider eBay.

但Case总体上很谨慎。

But Case was generally sorry.

继续。

Ahead.

他们不是真的让梅格·惠特曼在某个房间里等着吗？

Didn't they like actually have Meg Whitman like waiting in a room or something?

我会讲那个故事的。

I'll I'll tell that story.

好的。

Okay.

史蒂夫·凯斯对再次投资互联网公司持谨慎态度，因为从战略角度看，如果你认为泡沫即将破裂，为什么还要再投一家互联网公司呢？

The case Steve Case was wary of doubling down on another internet company because that makes sense strategically if you think the bubble's gonna burst, why do another internet company?

两个锚彼此相连。

Two anchors tied to one another.

是的。

Yeah.

他们只会更快地沉沦。

They're just gonna sink faster.

所以他说的意思是让我们把目光放远到互联网之外，引用原话'寻找那些对人们获取信息、相互交流方式有深远影响的公司'，这是我们的核心业务，副产品，娱乐等等。

So he says something like let's look beyond the internet and quote identify companies that have a profound impact on how people get information, communicate with others, which is our core business, byproducts, R entertain, etcetera.

所以当时与AT&T有过重要的追求阶段，就是合并前的AT&T。

So there's major courtships with AT and T, the pre singular merger AT and T.

迪士尼，他们曾极力争取迪士尼，但显然迈克尔·艾斯纳坚决反对。

Disney, they went hard at Disney, but apparently Michael Eisner was a hard no.

引述内容，我记得这是斯威舍书中的原话。

And the quote, I think this is from Swisher's book.

一位AOL高管说：'我们都知道自己是在借来的时间里生存，必须利用那庞大的股票市值收购些实质性的资产。'

One of the AOL guys says, we all knew we were living on borrowed time, and we had to buy something of substance by using that huge currency.

我们没用'泡沫'这个词，但确实讨论过即将到来的'核冬天'。

We didn't use the term bubble, but we did talk about a coming nuclear winter.

他们的问题之一在于也清楚拨号上网是项有限技术，终将被宽带取代。

Well, one of their problems is that they also know that dial up is a limited technology that's going to be eclipsed by broadband.

再说一次，他们并非愚蠢，只是可能不如硅谷公司那样拥有强大的技术团队。

Again, they're not stupid as much as they're not maybe a Silicon Valley company, huge technologist.

他们知道宽带时代终将到来，无论是通过DSL（当时人们认为这会成为主流）还是主要通过有线调制解调器。

They know that broadband is coming either through DSL, which people thought would be a thing at the time, but mainly cable modems.

因此经过大量思考后，他们认为应该收购一家有线电视公司。

So a lot of thinking went into we should get a cable company.

这大概就是他们当时与AT&T谈判的原因。

Or that's probably why they were talking to AT and T.

AT&T当时拥有DSL业务。

AT and T had DSL at the time.

卡拉·斯威舍书中的另一段匿名AOL人士的话说：有线电视是一切的核心驱动力。

Another quote from Kara Swisher's book is anonymous AOL guy says, Cable was the driver of everything.

没有有线电视，任何交易都毫无意义。

Without it, no deal made sense.

因此时代华纳是当时最大的媒体公司。

So Time Warner is the biggest of the media companies at this point in time.

而且他们还拥有一个叫时代华纳有线的小业务。

Also, they have a little thing called Time Warner Cable.

所以如果史蒂夫·凯斯不想做互联网联盟，他想要的是更具实质性的东西。

So if Steve Case doesn't want to do an internet tie up, he wants something that has more substance.

虽然他们本可以这么做，但没人会相信他们决定收购石油公司之类的企业。

No one's gonna believe if they decide they're gonna buy an oil company or something like that, though they could have.

他们当时的市值基本上可以买下任何公司。

They had the market cap to basically buy anything at that point.

所以他相信时代华纳拥有内容资源。

So what he believes is Time Warner has the content.

别忘了，他们花了十年时间坚信内容才是让网络走向主流的关键。

And remember, they spent a decade believing that content was the thing that would make online become mainstream, become a thing.

所以，你知道，内容才是王道。

And so it's, you know, content is key.

过去几十年里我们听过多少次这种说法了？

How many times have we heard that over the decades?

时代华纳拥有这些可以追溯数百年的顶级优质内容资源。

Time Warner has this, you know, Tiffany platinum content going back hundreds of years.

顺便说一句，他们还拥有一家有线电视公司。

And by the way, they have a cable company.

我记得当时应该是第三大，也可能是第二大。

I think it was the third largest, maybe the second largest at the time.

我在这里要插一句，讲讲杰瑞·莱文和时代华纳的故事。

So I'm gonna take an aside here and tell you the story of Jerry Levin and Time Warner.

杰瑞·莱文作为当时时代华纳的CEO，是靠技术起家的。

Jerry Levin, the CEO of Time Warner at this point, made his bones through technology.

严格来说HBO不是他发明的，创意也不是他提出的，但正是他制定了'通过卫星电视传输付费频道'这一战略。

He basically he didn't invent HBO, didn't come up with the idea, but he was the guy behind the strategy of let's deliver this pay channel via satellite TV.

他凭借HBO的巨大成功声名鹊起，在公司内步步高升。

He makes his name, rises up through the ranks via the incredible success of HBO.

正因为如此，杰瑞·莱文对技术深信不疑。

Jerry Levin believed in technology because of that.

事实上，他在公司任职的几十年间，始终致力于推动技术进步，坚信未来技术将以难以想象的新方式传递内容和媒体。

And in fact, over the several decades at the company, he continued to try to pioneer technological advances believing that there's untold new ways in the future that technology is going to be able to deliver content and media and things like that.

他们在奥兰多投资了全服务网络，这是在互联网兴起前的尝试，想实现所谓的'500个频道'和用遥控器通过电视购物等功能。

They invest in the full service network in Orlando, which was sort of an attempt before the web took off to sort of do what they called 500 channels and shopping with your remote through your TV and things like that.

在收购华纳之前，时代公司当时在这个项目上投入了约10亿美元。

Time it was time at the time before they bought Warner spent about $1,000,000,000 on that.

当互联网兴起时，他们还投资了一个名为Pathfinder的网站，投入了数亿美元。

They also when the web comes around, there is a site called Pathfinder that they throw several $100,000,000 after.

我的播客有一期专门讲Pathfinder的故事，因为它已被历史遗忘，但它作为网络媒体传播先驱的种种尝试值得被铭记。

I have a lovely episode of my podcast about Pathfinder because it's gone down the memory hole, it deserves to be remembered for all of the things that it pioneered in terms of trying to deliver media on the web.

不过这个项目也让他们损失惨重。

But it also lost them a ton of money.

就在这一时期，美国企业界流行起一个口号。

Around this time, corporate America, there's a watchword.

每个人都需要一个互联网战略。

Everyone needs an internet strategy.

你知道，迪士尼有Go网络。

You know, Disney does the Go network.

当时有NBCi。

There was NBCi.

当时有所有这些举措。

There was all these initiatives.

如果你是媒体公司，你会尝试任何可能的手段。

If you're a media company, you're trying anything you can do.

巴里·迪勒试图收购Lycos还是AltaVista来着？

Barry Diller tries to buy Lycos or was it AltaVista?

我记不清了。

I can't remember.

所有人都认为你会被'亚马逊化'。

Everyone thinks that you're gonna be Amazoned.

你必须想出办法来拥抱互联网和网络，或者对抗它，或者采取其他措施。

You've gotta come up with a way to either embrace the internet and the web or combat it or something.

所以你有杰瑞·莱文，他一直相信技术将改变内容和媒体。

So you have Jerry Levin who's always believed in technology is gonna change content and media.

时代华纳一次又一次地未能制定出互联网战略。

Time Warner has failed time and time again to come up with an internet strategy.

因此在1999年，当中华人民共和国庆祝五十周年之际，所有政界和商界领袖基本上都在那段时间聚集在北京，就像达沃斯论坛一样。

And so in 1999, when the People's Republic Of China is having its fiftieth anniversary and and all of the, the politicians and business leaders it's basically Davos and Beijing for that period of time.

所有人都在北京庆祝中华人民共和国成立五十周年。

Everyone's in Beijing celebrating the fiftieth anniversary of the People's Republic Of China.

而史蒂夫·凯斯开始认真追求杰瑞·莱文。

And Steve Case starts to seriously court Jerry Levin.

杰瑞·莱文认为这太棒了。

Jerry Levin thinks this is great.

这将解决他的问题，证明他是对的——如果他能将世界上最伟大的媒体公司与公认最伟大的互联网公司联姻，他关于技术改变媒体的愿景就会实现。

This is gonna solve his it's gonna prove him right, that that if he can marry the greatest media company in the world to what everyone believes is the greatest internet company, his vision of technology changing media will come true.

这将是他留下的遗产。

This is going be his legacy.

在各种书籍中都有记载，这是一段复杂的追求过程。

There's in the various books, it's a complex courtship.

我认为这就是eBay介入的地方。

This is where I believe the eBay thing comes in.

我的理论是他们继续与eBay谈判，是为了将其作为幌子。

My theory is that they kept talking to eBay because they were using it as a stalking horse.

实际上，我要在这里翻开卡拉·斯威舍的书。

Like, actually, I'm going to open up the Kara Swisher book here.

就在宣布与时代华纳合并交易的前一周，甚至可能是前一天。

The week before and might even be the day before they actually announced the merger, the deal with Time Warner.

梅格·惠特曼和高盛团队的人正在美国在线总部，他们在一间会议室里。

Meg Whitman and and their Goldman Sachs people are at AOL headquarters and they're in one conference room.

这是主会议室，他们正试图敲定一项交易，让美国在线收购eBay。而在楼层另一端的马里布会议室里，时代华纳及其律师团队正在推进最终将达成的交易。

This is the main conference room trying to work out a deal so that AOL is gonna buy eBay In what's called the Malibu Room on the opposite end of the floor is Time Warner and their lawyers, and they're working on the deal that's eventually going to go through.

这场景颇具喜剧色彩。

So it's a comical scene.

这是引用斯威舍的话。

This is quoting Switcher.

高管们进进出出，时而向惠特曼和她的团队道歉，时而又对他们置之不理，而他们只能干坐着等待，困惑不已，完全搞不清楚状况。

Executives are shuffling in and out, alternatively apologizing to and ignoring Whitman and her team who are sitting there cooling their heels wondering what they're not quite sure what's going on.

AOL就是这样运作的吗？

Is this just the way AOL works?

他们以时而极度善变、时而咄咄逼人著称，几乎算是一种消极攻击性。

They're famously flaky and aggressive at various times, like sort of passive aggressive almost.

就这样在那里耗了一整天，什么事都没做成，律师们不断冲出房间消失不见。

And so spending a day there where nothing really gets done and lawyers are running out of the room and disappearing.

他们到底去哪了？

Where are they going?

他们其实也不清楚。

They don't really know.

他们不知道时代华纳的人就在隔壁房间。

They don't know that Time Warner's in the other room.

所以当天结束时，惠特曼和她的团队准备离开。

So at the end of the day, Whitman and the team is leaving.

她走进皮特曼的办公室道别，说了句原话：‘你们这儿看起来挺忙啊’。

She goes into Pittman's office to say goodbye, and she says, quote, you've got a lot going on here, it seems.

当然，她当时完全被蒙在鼓里。

And of course, she had no idea.

我记得是在第二天他们宣布了与时代华纳的交易。

I think it's the next day that they announced the Time Warner thing.

不过，是的，这基本上完全是个题外话。

But so, yeah, they basically now this is this is definitely an aside.

如果他们当时完成了与eBay的交易会怎样？

What if they had done the eBay deal?

因为eBay比所有公司都更好地度过了互联网泡沫危机。

Because eBay survived the .com bus better than everybody.

很大程度上要归功于PayPal，当然这是后来的事了。

Well, and in large part due to because of PayPal, which of course came later.

那么反事实就是——如果AOL当时足够明智，允许收购PayPal会怎样？

And then that's the counterfactual would if if if would AOL have been smart enough to have allowed the PayPal acquisition?

但如果你看看eBay的股价，它虽然有所下跌，但随后就达到了历史高点。

But but if you look if you look at eBay stock, it basically it goes down some, but then it reaches its height.

大约在2003、2004年时，它就超过了互联网泡沫时期的高点。

It surpasses its .com bubble height in like 2003, 2004.

这就像是唯一一支在亚马逊跌到5美元左右时还能保持的股票，因为eBay的业务基本上从未下滑过。

It's like the only stock that does like in a time period when Amazon's down to like $5 because eBay's business basically never dipped.

所以事后看来，我们会发现收购eBay才是正确的选择。

They so in retrospect, which we'll get into buying eBay was the way to go.

他们本应该选择一家互联网公司。

They should have gone with a with an internet company.

我要把这个观点保存下来。

So I'm gonna save this.

我会在科技主题中再讨论这个。

I'm gonna come back in tech themes.

这是我的科技主题，不过你知道的，关于这点我之后还会说更多。

This is my tech theme here but you know this is well I'm gonna say much more on this later.

可以说eBay确实是比时代华纳更适合互联网的企业。

Suffice to say that you know eBay was the much better business for the Internet certainly than Time Warner.

好吧，信不信由你们，我要结束这个话题了。

Well, believe it or not, guys, I'm gonna wrap this up.

我...我们开始吧。

I'm I'm let's let's let's do it.

我保证二十分钟内完成。

The the the I promise twenty minutes.

现在已经远远超过这个时间了。

I'm way beyond that at at this point.

交易宣布于2000年1月10日。

The deal is announced 01/10/2000.

这是价值1640亿美元的美国在线与830亿美元的时代华纳合并。

It's the merger of a $164,000,000,000 AOL with $83,000,000,000 Time Warner.

虽然宣布为合并，但实际上美国在线股东持有合并后公司56%股份，时代华纳股东占44%。

The the deal it's announced as a merger, but the reality is is AOL shareholders controlled 56% of the merged company and Time Warner shareholders 44%.

所以这实质上就是一场收购。

So it's an acquisition in all but name.

我至今仍清晰记得这件事的发生。

And I actually remember very vividly this happening.

在我的记忆中，我忘了去查这个。

And in my memory, I forgot to look this up.

Jerry Levin Levin和和Steve Case那天晚上上了Charlie Rose的节目。

Jerry Levin and Steve Case are on Charlie Rose that night.

他们是

They were

无处不在。

everywhere.

查理·罗斯。

Charlie Rose.

那是史蒂夫

That's Steve

凯斯曾誓言，美国在线时代华纳有朝一日将实现1000亿美元的收入。

Case vowed that one day AOL Time Warner would have $100,000,000,000 in revenue.

将成为全球首家市值达到万亿美元的公司。

Would be the world's first trillion dollar market cap company.

风险投资家罗杰·麦克纳米有句名言，他说：'让我们把话说清楚。'

There's a quote from Roger McNamee, the venture capitalist who says, quote, let's be clear.

这是我职业生涯中见过最具变革性的单一事件。

This is the single most transformative event I've ever seen in my career.

卡拉·斯威舍在她的书中引用道：'通过这一重大举措，两家公司似乎都弥补了各自的短板，同时放大了优势。'

Kara Swisher has a quote from her book where she says, In one major move, the two companies had seemingly addressed both of their weaknesses and intensified their strengths.

我不否认我当时确实相信这点，许多人也一样——尽管现在他们中的多数都假装从未这么认为过。

I won't deny that I really believe that, as did many others, many of whom now pretend they never did.

所以，我是说，这是2000年1月。

So, I mean, this is January 2000.

这是泡沫的巅峰时期。

This is the height of the bubble.

与此同时发生的还有微软反垄断案的审判即将结束。

What's also happening around this time, the Microsoft antitrust trial has come to an end.

看起来微软即将被拆分。

It looks like Microsoft's about to be broken up.

谁看起来像是科技界的新王者？

Who looks like is the new king of the technology hill?

偏偏是美国在线(AOL)。

It's AOL of all people.

事情是这样的，这笔交易在2000年1月宣布。

What happens is so the deal is announced in January 2000.

四天后，道琼斯工业平均指数达到峰值，此后六年多都未能重返这一水平。

Four days later, the Dow Jones Industrial Average peaks at a level that it would not return to for more than six years.

2000年3月10日，纳斯达克指数达到峰值，这一高点直到2015年3月才再次触及，期间最低点时市值蒸发了80%。

On 03/10/2000, the NASDAQ peaks at a level that it would not reach again until March 2015, losing 80% of its value at its low.

泡沫破裂了。

The bubble bursts.

我们稍后会从文化层面探讨为何这次收购是一场灾难。

And we'll get into why the culturally why the acquisition was a disaster.

这场合并就是一场灾难。

The merger was a disaster.

但事实并非是人们不再使用拨号上网了。

But again, the reality of it is not that people stopped doing dial up.

实际上，直到2002年，拨号上网的用户数量仍在增长。

Actually, until 2002, the dial up subscriptions were still growing.

最高峰时达到了2670万用户。

It peaked at 26,700,000.0.

真正扼杀这笔交易的是，一旦合并发生，AOL与那些.com公司签订的所有协议都立即消失、蒸发了。

The thing that kills this deal is that as soon as it happens, all of those deals that AOL did with the .com companies disappear, evaporate.

我不仅仅是指那些三年期合同到期了。

And I'm not just saying that the three year deal runs out.

我的意思是那些公司已经破产，不会再给你们寄支票了。

I'm saying that the companies are bankrupt and are not going to be sending you any more checks.

所以本质上，那些让华尔街如此兴奋的广告收入疯狂增长。

So essentially that insane growth in advertising that had so excited Wall Street.

华尔街曾一度预测，到2003年AOL的广告收入将超过ABC或CBS这样的电视网络。

At some point Wall Street was estimating that AOL by 2003 would have more advertising revenue than an ABC or a CBS in television.

他们觉得这就是未来。

Like, they're thinking this is it.

这就是下一个大事件。

This is the next big thing.

几乎从交易达成的那一刻起就消失了。

Goes away almost from the moment that the deal happens.

从文化角度来说，我不知道这有多有趣，但那些AOL的牛仔们入驻了。

Culturally, you know, I don't know how interesting this is, but, you know, those AOL cowboys move in.

他们试图告诉时代华纳的人，好吧

They try to tell the Time Warner guys, you know, okay.

我们现在要像科技公司那样运营

We're gonna run this like a tech company now.

这就像宿主身体排斥移植器官一样

And it's like the host body rejecting an organ.

时代华纳一直以内部派系林立著称，比如我管杂志部门，你管有线电视，他管图书出版

Time Warner was always notorious for having these warring fiefdoms of like, you know, I control magazines, you control cable, you control book publishing, you know.

他们不

They don't

和AOL也没什么不同

And not dissimilar from AOL.

我是说，AOL内部也有这种派系文化

I mean, I think AOL had the internal fiefdom culture too.

把两个这样的公司混在一起，结果肯定好不了

You mix two of those together, that can't go well.

然后AOL以征服者的姿态进来，摆出一副'我们比你们这些乡巴佬更懂新媒体'的架势

Well, and then with AOL coming in as the conquering heroes and being like, we know this new media game better than you yahoos.

字面意思上的

Like literally

你们这些乡巴佬，没有双关的意思

You yahoos, no pun intended.

没错，确实如此

Yeah, true.

文化冲突确实会带来一些实际问题。

There's practical things about culture clashes.

就像在某本书里，《体育画报》直接拒绝合作那样。

Like if in one of the books, Sports Illustrated just refuses to play ball.

意思是我们不会把内容交给你们。

Like we're not going to give our content to you.

我们要自己运营。

We're running our own.

事实上，《体育画报》向来很少为网络提供内容。

In fact, Sports Illustrated famously never really gave much to the web anyway.

或者想想华纳兄弟的例子——并购后他们拒绝让AOL接管《哈利波特》网站，而当时《哈利波特》电影的线上宣传才刚刚起步。

Or think of there's a story about, like, Warner Studios after the merger refuses to let AOL take over the Harry Potter website and the online promotion for the Harry Potter movies are just getting going.

对吧？

Right?

所以当AOL提出'让我们接管这个'时，华纳兄弟才会断然拒绝。

So that's why Warner Studios is so when AOL says to them, okay, let's take this over, Warner Studios says no.

对吧？

Right?

而AOL最想要的东西，可以说是他们的救命稻草，就是AOL的——抱歉，是时代华纳的有线电视部门。

And then the thing that AOL wanted the most, like to save their skin, was AOL's or I'm sorry, Time Warner's cable division.

时代华纳拥有著名的Roadrunner业务，这是另一回事。

Time Warner had Roadrunner famously, which is another thing.

他们甚至无法让华纳授权给他们使用Roadrunner卡通形象。

They couldn't even get Warner to give them license them the Roadrunner cartoon thing.

这就是时代华纳内部的内斗。

That's the infighting that is at Time Warner.

所以当AOL说'听着，让我们把AOL品牌植入你们正在扩张的有线网络服务'时，时代华纳有线直接让他们滚蛋。

But so when AOL says, okay, listen, let's brand AOL into your expanding cable internet service, Time Warner Cable says get bent.

对吧？

Right?

因此尽管他们是收购方，但时代华纳那些根深蒂固的权力掮客直接让这些人滚蛋，基本上就是耗到并购的灾难性后果显现，然后把他们踢出局。

So even though they're the acquiring company, essentially, the the entrenched power brokers at Time Warner just tells these guys to screw off and basically waits them out until the disaster of the merger becomes evident and get kicked out.

而且

And

如果你考虑一下收入产生的权力动态，我记得AOL在2000年合并前的总收入大约是95亿美元左右。

if you think about like the power dynamics generated by the revenue, like I think AOL's total revenue in 2000 right before the merger was $9,500,000,000 or somewhere in that neighborhood.

Time Warner的市盈率要窄得多，他们当时的，当时的估值是多少来着？

Time Warner had a much more narrow price to earnings ratio, where they, you know, of that, what were they valued at?

大概是1500亿或1600,000000000美元吧。

Like, dollars 150,000,000 or $160,000,000,000 yeah.

是的，抱歉，是1600亿。

Yeah, sorry, 160,000,000,000.

他们拥有实质性的收入，估值应该是三倍左右，而不是像AOL那样离谱的倍数。

Like, they had real material revenues such that that had to be like a a three x or something, not like a, you know, ridiculous multiple like AOL.

本，我知道你找到的是哪篇文章，因为我也找到了那篇。

Ben, I know what article you found because I found that one too.

我认为那已经根据通胀调整过了，但情况甚至更糟。

I think that was adjusted for inflation, but it's even worse.

美国在线（AOL）的收入不足50亿美元，而时代华纳的收入是

AOL had, less than 5,000,000,000 in revenue and It Time Warner was

那么少。

that small.

没错，时代华纳收入超过250亿美元，是AOL的五倍多。而且正如我们讨论过的，AOL所谓的收入本质上就是蛇在吞食自己的尾巴。

Yeah and Time Warner had over 25,000,000,000 so you know over five times as much and AOL's quote unquote revenue as we've talked about was you know the snake eating its tail.

所以你能想象，作为时代华纳的中层管理者，你依然会觉得自己在组织内掌握着全部权力。

So you can see how you're like a Time Warner mid level exec and you still feel like you have all the power in that organization.

或者说按理你应该这样做。

Or you should by right.

从战略角度考虑这个问题。

Think of this strategically.

所以AOL认为，好吧，我们将拥有一家有线电视公司，这样就能解决我们向宽带过渡的问题。

So AOL thinks, well, we'll have a cable company And then that'll solve our problem with the transition to broadband.

但如果你是康卡斯特，现在为什么要与AOL合作呢？

But then if you're Comcast, why do you want to play ball with AOL now?

对吧？

Right?

就像如果AOL保持独立，他们曾非常努力地尝试与Adelphia Cable或Comcast等公司合作，提出共同品牌AOL的方案，表示他们将收取一定比例的月费，而对方则能从中获得增值服务。

Like if AOL had been independent, they were trying very hard to do things like go to Adelphia Cable or Comcast and say, like, let's co brand AOL and we'll take a certain percentage of the monthly fees and you take it, we'll value add to this.

一旦他们与时代华纳合并，其他宽带运营商还有什么理由与他们合作呢，对吧？

Once they're with Time Warner, then why would any other broadband player play ball with them, right?

所以从战略角度看，这从来就不合理。

So in a way strategically that never made sense.

但就像我们一直在说的，本质上资金会枯竭，再次不是因为拨号订阅在减少，而是因为所有的广告收入都消失了。

But then like we've been saying essentially the money just dries up not again because of the dial up subscriptions are drying up but the it's all of that ad money.

所有这些收入，当他们还能向《纽约时报》收费，屈尊出现在他们的屏幕上之类的时候。

It's all of that when they could charge The New York Times to deign to be on their screens and things like that.

它就在互联网泡沫破裂的核冬天中蒸发殆尽。

It just evaporates in the nuclear winter of the .com bubble bursting.

仅仅一年后，在合并宣布一周年之际，合并后的公司市值仅为1470亿美元。而在宣布合并时，美国在线的市值高达1600亿美元。也就是说，合并一年后，两家公司的总价值还不如美国在线当初的市值。

And so just a year, the one year anniversary of the merger being announced, the combined companies are only worth $147,000,000,000 At the time of the announcement, AOL was worth $160,000,000,000 So essentially the combined companies a year later are worth less than AOL was at the time of the announcement.

而且我认为它们的市值还会继续下跌。

And I think they continue to go down from there.

合并后的公司市值甚至跌破了1000亿，我记得连500亿都不到。

They go down below 100,000,000,000 even I think below 50,000,000,000 for the combined companies.

是啊。

Yeah.

我手头也有相关数据。

I had a bunch of stats on that too.

我认为唯一关键的是，由于AOL这边完全没有盈利且收入持续萎缩。

The only thing that's relevant I think is so essentially they it's because of the AOL side of the equation is delivering no profits and the revenues are shrinking.

他们仍然...

They're And still

占公司55%的份额。

55% of the company.

正是如此。

Exactly.

所以这些资产减记。

So the write downs.

2002年公司宣布的540亿美元资产减记，是当时有史以来最大的一笔。

Dollars 54,000,000,000 write down the company has to announce in 2002, which was the largest ever at that time.

这可能至今仍是最大的一笔。

It might still be the largest ever.

我不确定。

I don't know.

2003年又减记了555亿美元。

55,500,000,000.0 in 2003.

资料显示2002年整体亏损达990亿美元，我不清楚这是财年还是自然年数据。

The overall loss for 2002, this says, is $99,000,000,000 So I don't know if that's like a fiscal year versus calendar year thing.

基本上，美国在线这家公司所有有价值的东西完全是个假象。

So basically, AOL, everything valuable about that company is completely an illusion.

华尔街也注意到了这一点。

And Wall Street notices.

那么它是在什么时候公布的，2000年1月吗？

And so it's announced, what is it, January 2000?

到了2001年12月，杰瑞·莱文卸任了。

By December 2001, Jerry Levin steps down.

美国在线的人当时还以为他们掌控着局面，所以他们想接管美国在线的CEO职位，特别是对公司的控制权。

The AOL people are still thinking that they're in charge at this point, so they want to take over the CEO ship of AOL, the control of AOL specifically.

实际上，鲍勃·皮特曼那时真以为自己会接手，因为他觉得史蒂夫·凯斯会卸任是迟早的事。

And actually, that's where Bob Pittman really was the guy that thought he was going take it because he was feeling like Steve Case would step down at some point.

但众所周知，最终由迪克·帕森斯接手了

But no, as we know, it went to Dick Parsons.

于是鲍勃·皮特曼在2002年7月离职

And so Bob Pittman is out by July 2002.

史蒂夫·凯斯最终于2003年5月离开

Steve Case finally leaves in May 2003.

2003年9月18日，时代华纳正式从公司名称中去掉了AOL字样

09/18/2003, Time Warner officially drops AOL from its name.

合并后的公司正式命名为美国在线时代华纳。

The combined company was called AOL Time Warner officially.

但仅仅三年后，时代华纳基本上就想假装美国在线从未存在过。

But just three years later, AOL bay or Time Warner basically wants to pretend like AOL never happened.

此时他们仍然持有这项资产。

And at this point, they still own the asset.

他们并没有说要一次性剥离它。

Like, they're they're not saying, you know, all in one fell swoop, oh, we're gonna spin it out.

它仍然属于公司的一部分。

Like, that is still in the company.

只是毫无作为而已。

It's just not doing anything.

你总会时不时听到那些数字——至今仍有数百万人在为美国在线的拨号上网服务每月付费。

Well, you always hear those numbers now and again about however millions of people are still paying every month for AOL dial up.

我是说，这

I mean, it's

哦，是的。

Oh, yeah.

我其实知道具体数字。

I've actually got the number.

根据威瑞森2015年5月的报价，他们拨号上网业务仍能创造6.065亿美元收入。

As of Verizon's bid in May 2015, they're still making $606,500,000 in dial up revenue.

我查过数据，这个数字至今都没怎么缩减，所以他们确实还在维持这项业务。

And I looked up some it really actually hasn't shrunk much today, So they're really actually still maintaining that.

要知道，公司里还有其他资产。

Well, know, there's other there's other assets in there.

记得他们收购了网景吗？

Remember they bought Netscape?

结果只是

Only to

一家叫网景的小公司。

A little company called Netscape.

是啊。

Yeah.

我是说，你看，卡拉·斯威舍的书之所以叫《这里头总该有匹小马吧》是有原因的。

I mean, so I, you know, every there's a reason why Kara Swisher's book is called There's a Pony in Here Somewhere.

就是说，如果有一大堆狗屎，里头总该有匹小马驹吧。

It's in this if there's a mountain of shit this big, there's got to be a pony somewhere.

所以他们试过了，伙计。

So they tried, man.

那是匹小马驹。

It was a little pony.

其实那是匹巨马，谢谢你提醒我这个。

Well, actually, it was a huge one and you remind I'm glad you reminded me of this.

我记下来了。

I made a note.

AOL即时通讯器在巅峰时期，我记得有超过1亿用户。

AOL Instant Messenger, at its height, I think has over a 100,000,000 users.

好的？

Okay?

所以在2003、2004年，人们都有好友列表。

So like 2,003, 2,004, people have a buddy list.

那就是你的社交图谱。

It's your social graph.

明白吗？

Okay?

你知道，根据我对Facebook的研究，他们基本上就是Facebook的缔造者。

You know, for the research that, you know, I've done on Facebook, basically they they wrote Facebook.

他们彼此之间不直接交谈。

They didn't talk to each other.

他们隔着桌子坐着。

They sat across tables from each other.

他们通过AIM互相聊天。

They're on AIM chatting at each other.

就像我发现的一些引述所说，负责AIM之类的人表示，我们早就有了社交网络。

Like that's how Facebook there's quotes that I found like, you know, people in charge of AIM and things like that are like, we had social networking.

你知道的。

You know.

所以AIM其实是源自ICQ，我记得是美国在线收购了ICQ。

So again And again AIM came from ICQ and which I think AOL acquired ICQ.

美国在线是收购了它，但它实际上并非源自ICQ。

AOL acquired it didn't actually come from ICQ.

ICQ是另一个没人知道他们为何收购的东西。

It's a ICQ was another thing no one knows why they bought it.

AIM有个有趣的故事，它原本是美国在线内部不想做的项目，但人们觉得它很酷

AIM, it's an interesting story, was an internal thing that AOL didn't want to do, but like people thought it was cool and

为什么即时通讯平台总是内部产物？

they Why are messaging platforms always internal things?

Slack、Discord、AIM这些最初都没打算做成产品，结果却令人震惊。

Slack, Discord, AIM that are like not actually going to be a product and then shocked.

我们现在应该对消息平台能孵化出优秀客户端这件事不那么惊讶了。

We should be less shocked by now that messaging platforms make good spin out clients.

AOL本该知道这点，因为他们——我之前没提过——他们之所以能击败Prodigy，就是因为他们允许用户聊天。

And AOL should have known because they're the ones that I didn't say this before, but the reason they beat Prodigy is because they let people chat.

Prodigy曾试图禁止那些'性感'的内容。

Prodigy tried to don't do sexy stuff.

所以AOL

So AOL

人们就是想做那些'性感'的事。

People want to do the sexy stuff.

就让人们畅所欲言吧。

Just let people talk.

对于科技产品而言，一个新科技范式中能成为龙头企业的，必定是最先实现让人们自由交流的那家公司。

The number one thing if you have a technology product, a new technology paradigm, the thing that will be the company, the first successful company is the one that just lets people talk to each other.

我敢打赌，VR领域诞生的首个市值十亿美元的软件平台或公司，必然是最擅长让人们通过VR交流的那家。

I guarantee you the first billion dollar software platform or whatever company coming from VR is just the one that allows people to talk to each other in VR the best.

你知道，随着这个

You know, with the So

这已经是非常明确的趋势了。

it's come real solid bets on that.

是啊。

Yeah.

没错。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

iPhone带来了哪些变革？

With the iPhone, what are the things that came through?

比如WhatsApp这类应用。

You know, things like, you know, WhatsApp and things like that.

是的。

Yes.

任何能让人们互相交流的技术范式都是最稳妥的首选。

Any paradigm in technology allowing people to talk to each other is the safest first bet.

我不知道AIM有1亿用户这个数字，但这很合理。

I didn't know that number, the 100,000,000 number for AIM, but it makes sense.

就像，我成长过程中有过很多塑造性的经历，比如第一次通过社交平台与人交流，至少是在线交流，还建立了真正有意义的关系。

Like, had formative, formative, like, growing up experiences where I, you know, had social like, the first experience socializing with people, you know, at least people online, and also actually meaningful relationships.

即使我们上同一所高中或初中，我们也会在AIM上聊到凌晨两点，你会逐渐了解别人，关心个人资料的内容，在意离线留言——那可比Facebook墙贴还要早。

Even when we went to the same high school or middle school, we'd chat on AIM until like two in the morning, and you get to know people, and you care about what's in your profile, and you care about away messages like that was before Facebook wall posts.

就像你，拥有所有这些事物——它代表社会地位，传达你的个性，好友列表的人数，你排序的方式都象征着社交关系的强弱。

Like you, you have all these things where like, it's social status, it communicates your personality, it it the number of people on your buddy list, the way you have it sorted is like representation of strong and weak social ties.

那曾是生活的基本组成部分。

Like that was an essential fabric of life.

甚至从商业角度来看也是如此。

Well, would even say that same thing from the business perspective.

三家初创企业主要活跃在1999到2005年间。

Three startups were mostly in the 'ninety nine to 2005 era.

甚至在Skype出现之前，我们就是这样做生意的，你知道，总是通过Skype与人联系。

So before even Skype becomes a thing, like like that's how we did business, you know, Skyping people all the time.

只要你知道对方的即时通讯软件昵称就能联系上。

It was people's if you knew their their instant messenger screen name.

我下周要和Om Malik交谈，他在这方面很有名。

I'm gonna talk to Om Malik next week and and but like he was famous for that.

他会给出联系方式，如果你想上GigaOm网站的话——我们之前讨论过推广初创公司之类的事情。

He would give that that's how if you wanted to get on GigaOm, we were talking earlier about promoting startups and things like that.

如果你知道Om Malik的即时通讯账号，我想Michael Arrington也是同样的方式。

If you knew Om Malik's Instant Messenger and I think Michael Arrington was the same way.

就是这样

That's how

他用的应该是Skype。

His was Skype, I think.

我记得他，是的。

I remember him Yeah.

非常庞大的

Being a huge

是啊。

Yeah.

但你知道，生意就是那么做的。

But so right you know, business was done over that.

这又回到了社交图谱的概念。

Again, it's the social graph.

就像你的名片夹一样。

It's like it was your Rolodex.

那是你与人保持联系的方式。

It was your it was how you kept up with people.

没错。

Yeah.

那就是一切。

It was everything.

所以我需要做一期关于这个的节目。

So I need to do an episode on that.

我得找到一些AIM的人，让他们基本上完全配合。

I gotta track down some AIM guys and have them basically Totally.

我是说这

I mean it's

太不可思议了，就像我们之前开玩笑说的，它就像是Facebook、WhatsApp、微信的集合体，还有Snapchat、Instagram这些——虽然Instagram的照片功能没那么重要——但包含了所有最重要的社交功能

incredible like it was and we joked about it earlier but like it was Facebook, WhatsApp, WeChat, like you know all of this Snapchat like Instagram, well not Instagram photos weren't as big a part of it but like all of the most important Oh you ones

可以交换文件。

on could trade files.

不知道你还记不记得这个功能。

I don't know if you remember that.

你可以

You could

嗯，还能交换音乐。

Well you could trade music.

它总是会失败。

It would fail all the time.

就像那些事情一样，是的，试试看吧，但我们得看它是否真的能成功。

Like it was one of those things that was like, yeah, give it a shot but we'll see if it actually happens.

但你知道，包括我们在内的很多人都嘲笑这些弗吉尼亚州的非技术牛仔们。

But it was you know, for all the you know, lots of people ourselves included make fun of these you know, non technologist cowboys in Virginia.

就像借用阿尔·戈尔的话说，他们发明了互联网。

Like, they invented the Internet, to borrow an Al Gore phrase.

这有点，我是说，看着确实挺让人难过的，因为你知道，Facebook本是他们可以挥霍的机会。

It's it's a little I mean, it's a sad thing to watch, really, because, like, you know, Facebook was their opportunity to squander.

我是说，当你研究网络效应和人们如何围绕业务建立防御性时，有一些非常有趣的故事，我记得是ICQ试图逆向工程AIM协议，这样你就能通过ICQ客户端和AIM用户聊天。

And I mean, as you sort of study network effects and how people build defensibility around their business, there's some fascinating stories about, I think it was ICQ trying to reverse engineer the AIM protocol, so you could chat AIM people from the ICQ client.

基本上这是一场你来我往的工程战，看他们如何不断调整协议来阻挡对手，独享自己的网络效应。

And these basically engineering wars going back and forth of how could they keep tweaking the protocol to keep the other guys out and keep their network effect to themselves.

AOL和微软之间曾有一场全面的冷战，因为当时有MSN聊天，还有雅虎聊天。

There was a whole cold war between AOL and Microsoft because you had MSN chat, you had Yahoo chat.

是啊，哦那个

So yeah Oh that's

就是那样

what it was.

对，就是那样

Yeah that's what it was.

MSN Messenger

MSN Messenger.

没错，每当MSN Messenger破解了代码，AOL就会立刻更改它。

Right as soon as MSN Messenger would crack the code AOL would change it.

而我看到

And I saw

这些网络效应、局部网络效应的动态正在发生，就像今天一样。

these network effect, local network effect dynamics taking place just like there is today.

我是说MSN Messenger和Live在许多国家是主导网络，而AIM在美国是主导网络，就像这里的iMessage和Facebook Messenger与欧洲的WhatsApp的关系一样。

I mean MSN Messenger and Live was the dominant network in a bunch of countries and AIM was the dominant network in The US and it's just like iMessage and Facebook Messenger here versus WhatsApp in Europe.

听着，还记得史蒂夫·乔布斯曾公开宣称他们会让FaceTime开源吗？

Well listen, remember Steve Jobs famously told us that they were gonna open source FaceTime.

FaceTime协议。

FaceTime protocol.

是啊。

Yeah.

至今未见实现。

Haven't seen that happen.

我认为这与其说是商业决策，不如说是工程决策。

I think that's actually less of a business decision and more of an engineering decision.

据传闻说，FaceTime开发团队在听到乔布斯台上宣布时面面相觑，满脸写着'什么情况？'

I think as the lore goes, the team that built FaceTime was sitting in their row when he they heard it for the first time when he announced it on stage, and they all looked at each other like, what?

没错。

Yeah.

我也听过这个说法。

I think I heard that too.

是啊。

Yeah.

好吧，行吧。

Well, alright.

很抱歉我絮絮叨叨说了这么多，现在我把话题交还给你们。

That's my I am sorry I I droned on so much, but that I will hand it back.

对不起。

I'm sorry.

我把话语权交还给你们。

I will hand the the keys back to you guys.

我们甚至...我选

Do we even I pick

知道。

know.

我知道。

I know.

我是说，呃，大卫，你有什么想谈的吗？

I mean, well, David, do do do you wanna talk into anything at all?

还有什么收购历史和事实需要我们讨论吗？我们应该进入收购类别的话题吗？

Any any more acquisition history and facts, should we go into the the acquisition category?

我可以稍微整理一下

And I can kinda frame

我想补充一点，关于这件事本身的历史和事实没什么可多说的，但作为整个故事的完美结尾，历史正在重演，看看我们今天的位置——AOL现在归Verizon所有。

The that up a little one thing I wanna add, nothing more on the history and facts of this itself but it's just such a fitting coda to this whole story is history repeating itself again and look where we are today and AOL is owned by Verizon.

AOL在2009年从时代华纳分拆出来。

AOL spun out of Time Warner in 2009.

当时估值略高于30亿美元，与近十年前的天文数字相比相去甚远。

It was valued at just over $3,000,000,000 versus the astronomic heights of nearly ten years before that.

这主要是因为他们收购了多年来积累的所有广告技术。

And that's mostly because they had all this ad tech that they've bought over the years.

是的，

Yep,

是的。

yep.

所以他们被威瑞森收购后，时代华纳这边，政府尚未批准这笔交易，但他们正处于被AT&T收购的过程中。

So they get acquired by Verizon and then on the Time Warner side the deal hasn't been approved the government yet but they are in the process of getting acquired by AT and T.

所以，你知道，当时有很多关于这是有史以来最糟糕合并的笑话，一个科技互联网公司AOL与一家传统媒体公司合并。而现在到了2017年，它们都被电话公司收购了。

So, you know, there were all these jokes about, you know, the worst merger of all time and you know, this tech internet company AOL, you know, merging with an old media company And here we are in 2017 and both of them are owned by phone companies.

是啊。

Yeah.

真的，真的很难想象。

Really, really hard to imagine.

好了，听众朋友们。

Alright, listeners.

首先，节日快乐。

Well, first off, happy holidays.

节日快乐。

Happy holidays.

也祝你节日快乐，本。

And happy holidays to you, Ben, as well.

谢谢。

Thank you.

本着放松、旅行和享受精彩播客的精神，我们和Odd Lots播客的朋友们聊了聊，他们提议说，嘿。

Well, in the spirit of downtime and travel and enjoying great podcasts, we were talking with our friends over at the Odd Lots podcast, and they suggested, hey.

我们二月份在Odd Lots一起做的那期节目真是太棒了。

That episode we did together on Odd Lots back in February, it was so great.

不如我们在年底时都在各自的节目中重点推荐一下？

What if we highlight on both of our shows at the end of the year?

我们说，好啊。

And we said, yes.

这还用想。

No brainer.

好主意。

Great idea.

我们讨论了所有相关内容，台积电、爱马仕、火星、英伟达，以及成就一家伟大公司的一切要素。

We talked about all the hits on it, TSMC, Hermes, Mars, NVIDIA, and everything that goes into making a great company.

后来我们继续深入交流，发现我们两个节目今年都迎来了十周年纪念，这简直不可思议。

And then we were talking with them some more, and we realized that both of our shows turned ten years old this year, which is crazy.

所以这就是命运的安排。

So it was fate.

我们必须这么做。

We gotta do it.

Odd Lots节目实在太棒了。

So Odd Lots is awesome.

这是我最爱的节目之一，也是获取收购研究资料的首选来源。

It's one of my favorite shows and always a go to source for acquired research.

没错。

Yep.

实际上他们关于台积电的几期节目正是我们的主要参考资料之一。

Their episodes on TSMC were actually some of our main sources for that one.

是啊。

Yeah.

乔和特蕾西配合得超棒，他们之间有种神奇的搭档化学反应，让节目听起来特别有趣。

Joe and Tracy do an awesome job, and they have that sort of magical, great cohost dynamic together that makes listening just really fun.

所以如果你在假期旅行时需要更多音频内容，快去听听《奇货可居》吧。

So if you're looking for more audio content for your holiday travel, go check out Odd Lots.

可以从我们和他们的那期节目开始，我们会在节目说明里放上链接。

You can start with our episode with them, which we'll link to in the show notes.

不过说实话，他们的任何一期节目都不会让你失望。

But honestly, you can't go wrong with any of their work.

完全同意。

Totally.

祝贺他们节目十周年，祝大家节日快乐。

Congratulations to them on ten years, and happy holidays, everyone.

节日快乐。

Happy holidays.

现在回到节目中来。

Now back to the show.

对于收购类别，我想我们为何不实际从两个方向都尝试一下呢？

Well, for acquisition category, I think why don't we actually take a stab from both directions?

那么首先来说，因为这实际上是，你知道的，美国在线收购时代华纳，属于哪种

So let's say first, because it actually was, you know, AOL, taking over, Time Warner, What kind

的

of

AOL的那次收购属于哪类？

acquisition was that for AOL?

我们标准的分类包括：人员、技术、产品、业务线、资产或其他。

Our standard categories are people, technology, product, business line, asset, or other.

Brian，请允许我冒昧地替你说出想法，这实际上属于'其他'类别，因为这严格来说不算收购行为，虽然可能涉及收购业务线，但更像是获取稳定性和流动性，看起来你们是在实施某种退出策略。

Brian, if I may be so bold as to voice what I think you would say, this is actually an other, because it's not necessarily acquiring if anything, it's maybe acquiring a business line, but it's like acquiring stability and liquidity, It seems to be what you're applying like like an applying an exit strategy.

那么，我是这么认为的。

So see, here's what I would say.

他们的理由是他们在收购业务线或技术。

Their rationale is that they're they're they're buying the business line of the or the technology.

对我来说这个分类很模糊。

It's murky to me what the category is.

但他们想要有线电视公司是为了能转型到宽带业务。

But they want the cable companies so that they can transition into broadband.

这就是他们的理由。

That's their rationale.

他们真正在买什么？

What are they really buying?

资产。

The assets.

他们本质上想说：听着，我们的股票是短暂的，需要将其转化为能永久存在的东西。

They're essentially trying to say, listen, our stock is ephemeral, we need to convert it into something that'll last forever.

《时代》杂志从20年代就存在了。

Time Magazine has been around since the 20s.

华纳兄弟自20年代就已存在。

Warner Brothers has been around since the 20s.

所以本质上他们真正追求的是'内容为王'这一资产。

So it's the asset of content is king that they were really, in their heart, going after.

是的。

Yeah.

说得好。

Well put.

哥们，说句题外话，如果你是美国在线那边的谈判代表，你怎么能全程保持严肃表情，真正代表你们参与收购的立场和时间赢家们

Man, and as a little aside, if you are at the negotiating table there and you're AOL, how do you keep a straight face through all this and and really represent what you're in this for and and what time winners

这个我们稍后再推测。

do speculating on that later.

好的。

Alright.

我会...我会...我会保留意见。

I'll I'll I'll save it.