第三季 第9集：Netflix（第二部分）

这甚至在经济衰退期间也为Netflix带来了大量用户注册。

And and this is drives tons of sign ups for Netflix even during the recession.

我的意思是，从某种角度看，这是一个更好的产品。

I mean, it's in a way better product.

我的意思是，旧的模式是，你只有在电视播放时才看视频。

I mean, like, why would you the old paradigm is you only watch video when it's on TV.

你知道，以前是等你想看的内容播出，而现在你可以随时随地想看就看。

You you know, when you what you want is on versus you can watch it whenever you want, wherever you want.

这显然是一个无可争议的客户价值主张。

Like, that's a no brainer customer value prop there.

我记得在2008年之前，我没法使用Netflix的什么功能来着？

And I remember in the 2008, previous to that, I wasn't able to do Netflix's what do they call it?

就是那个即时观看或者现在观看的功能吗？

Like, instant watch or watch now feature?

我想叫即时队列。

I think it was instant queue.

你当时有一个常规的Netflix DVD排队列表，而即时排队则是你想要通过流媒体观看的影片列表。

You had your regular Netflix queue for DVDs, and then the instant queue was your queue of what you wanted to watch, you know, lined up, via streaming.

你说得太对了。

You're so right.

是的。

Yeah.

而且当时只能在Windows上使用，因为他们还没来得及开发Mac客户端。

And and you could only it only worked on Windows because, like, they just hadn't they hadn't gotten around to building the sort of Mac client for it yet.

后来当他们推出支持后，你必须使用我记不清是哪个浏览器，而且只能在一种浏览器上运行，还需要Silverlight插件。

And then when they did, you had to, use I can't remember what browser it was, but it only worked in one browser and you needed Silverlight.

所以，想想看。

So, like, think about sort

天哪。

of Oh, my goodness.

现在的使用方式和过去的方式相比，简直是极其繁琐的——你得花十五分钟才能把视频在电脑上设置好，然后才能观看。

The way that this works today and the way that it used to work, it was just the kludgiest way that you could imagine trying to like It would take fifteen minutes to get the video sort of set up on your computer so you could watch

就是它。

it.

这正是我电脑上安装Silverlight的唯一原因。

This was the only reason I had Silverlight installed on my computers.

哇，我们忘得真快。

Wow, How quickly we forget.

这是2009年、2010年，Netflix刚刚崛起，但此时他们已经击败了百视达。

This is, you know, 2009, 2010 Netflix is just but they've beaten Blockbuster at this point.

是的。

Yes.

他们虽然在和Red Box竞争，但在流媒体领域，他们是唯一的玩家。

They're competing with Red Box, but, like, they're the only game in town when it comes to streaming.

他们正疯狂地增加订阅用户，仿佛明天就不再有尽头。

They are having a bonanza just adding subscribers like there's no tomorrow.

以至于到2010年，本提到一个数据：如今Netflix仍占美国全部互联网流量的15%。

And so much so that by 2010, Ben gave the stat that today Netflix is still 15% of all US Internet traffic.

在2010年的时候，它们占了美国所有互联网流量的20%。

Back then in 2010, they were 20% of all US Internet traffic.

哦，天哪。

Oh, wow.

互联网增长了。

Internet grew.

是的，我猜是这样。

Yeah, I assume.

想想现在和2010年相比，流媒体视频增加了多少。

Well, think about how much more streaming video there is now versus in 2010.

对。

Right.

是的。

Yeah.

那时候互联网流量 probably 没有达到68%或58%。

It probably wasn't 68% of the internet or 58% of the internet then.

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是，当然，那时的YouTube比现在小得多，但你知道，那时候还没有亚马逊Prime视频流媒体。

I mean, of course, was YouTube, much smaller than it was today, but, you know, there was no, there was no Amazon Prime streaming.

那时候也没有Facebook视频。

There was no Facebook video.

那时候也没有，你知道的，Snapchat。

There was no, you know, Snapchat.

那时候也没有Instagram。

There was no Instagram.

什么都没有。

Nothing.

从基础设施来看，那时家里也没有千兆宽带。

Infrastructure wise, there also wasn't gigabit to the home then.

对。

Yep.

是的

Yep.

是的

Yep.

Netflix 当时就已经知道这是未来。

And Netflix already knew this was the future.

这不仅仅是未来。

This is like not just the future.

这就是现在。

This is now.

所以他们意识到必须尽可能签下更多内容，让这趟列车持续运行下去。

So they they realized they need to sign up as much content as possible and just keep this keep this train running.

所以他们，内容公司也看到了这一点，说：哇。

So they're willing the content companies are also seeing this and saying, oh, wow.

我们能从 Netflix 身上赚到很多钱。

We can extract a lot of dollars out of Netflix.

Netflix说，我们很乐意付钱。

Netflix says, we're happy to pay dollars.

我们的订阅用户多得数不清。

We've got subscribers coming out the wazoo.

他们在2010年签署了第一份与Starz的协议，金额为2500万美元。

They sign in 2010 a remember, their their first deal with Starz was $25,000,000.

他们与Epix签订了一份为期五年、价值8亿美元的协议，Epix的拼写是E-P-I-X。

They signed an $800,000,000 deal, five year deal with Epix, e p I x.

现在，Epix是派拉蒙、狮门和米高梅三家公司的合资企业，其中派拉蒙属于维亚康姆旗下的电影公司。

Now Epix was a joint venture between Paramount, which is part of, Viacom, Lionsgate, Paramount was the the film, studio of Viacom.

狮门是独立公司，米高梅则是两家仍存的主要独立电影公司之一。

Lionsgate, Independent, and MGM, which were the two remaining major independent film studios.

因此，他们获得了所有内容，包括全部过往片库和新推出的影片。

So they get all of their content, all the back catalog, all the new content that's coming out.

当时米高梅正面临破产，我记得我还在华尔街工作，他们迫切需要这笔现金。

And MGM at the time, I remember I was working, on Wall Street, they were facing bankruptcy and so they desperately needed this cash.

正是这份Netflix与Epix的交易，让许多公司在经济衰退期间得以维持生存。

And it was this Netflix deal that, between Epics, like, really keeps a lot of these companies alive through the recession.

其他人看到后，也开始重返市场。

Everyone else sees this and they start coming back.

NBC的两部热门剧集回归了。

Two stars in NBC come back.

它们要求更高的报酬。

They demand much more money.

Netflix意识到自己必须变得非常精明。

Netflix And realizes they need to get really smart.

于是，他们组建了一个全新的内容采购部门，并开始大量投入资金收购各类内容。

So they spin up a whole content acquisition department, and they start spending a lot of money acquiring all this content.

那里其实已经埋下了伏笔。

So there's there's foreshadowing there.

Netflix在内容上投入了大量资金。

Netflix spending a lot of money on content.

好的。

Okay.

行。

Alright.

它正在回来。

It's coming back.

但先简短岔开一下，谈谈媒体行业。

But real quick detour about the media industry.

所有这些内容制作公司，媒体行业在美国已经存在了一百年。

So all of these content production companies, the media industry has been around for a hundred years in The US.

经历了大量的整合。

There has been tons of consolidation.

它们要么属于同一家母公司，比如时代华纳，要么与有线电视公司等分销渠道关系非常紧密。

They are either under the same parent company in the case of like Time Warner, or or or very closely tied to the cable companies to the distribution.

内容和分销都在同一个体系内。

Like content and distribution are all within the same house.

如果不是直接的，至少它们也是密切合作的。

If not directly, then at least they're they're in bed together.

作为这种现象的结果，切断有线电视的现象也开始出现。

Also going on as a as a result of this cord cutting starts becoming a thing.

消费者说：天啊，我从Netflix、YouTube和流媒体平台获得了这么多优质内容，而且现在经济不景气，手头紧。

Consumers are saying like, man, I'm getting so much great content from Netflix, from YouTube, from streaming, and it's the recession and, you know, cash is tight.

我真的还需要每月支付100美元的有线电视订阅费吗？

Do I really need to be paying a $100 a month for my cable subscription?

所以，你是在说内容端非常有动力去做这些交易，但分发端却在想：等等。

So you've got the content side of the house then you're saying is like very incentivized to do these deals, but the distribution side of the house is like Wait

稍等一下。

a minute.

是的。

Yeah.

这正是加速我们消亡的原因。

This is the thing accelerating our death.

咱们能聊一会儿吗？

Like, can we have a conversation for a minute?

对，没错。

Yeah, exactly.

所以，从分销端来看，有线电视公司开始对Netflix变得非常警惕。

So the distribution side of the house, the cable companies, they start getting very protective versus Netflix.

那么，有线电视公司在美国还拥有大部分什么东西呢？

Now what do the cable companies also own most of in The US?

他们拥有通往用户家庭的宽带网络管道。

They own the broadband pipes to people's homes.

目前在美国，绝大多数人，甚至直到今天，我猜他们家里的互联网连接——用于流媒体的——都是通过有线电视公司提供的，比如时代华纳电缆、康卡斯特，或者其他有线电视运营商的调制解调器。

Most people in The US at this point in time and really still to this day I would assume are getting their internet connections in their homes that they're using to stream from their cable company, from Time Warner Cable, from Comcast, from whatever, from their cable modem.

顺便问一下，你知道 fast.com 吗？

Quick side note, do you know about fast.com?

有点印象。

Vaguely.

我一直用 speedtest.net 来测试我的上传和下载速度。

So forever I used speedtest.net to test my sort of upload and download.

Netflix 在整个网络中立问题中遇到了很多麻烦，正如你即将提到的，这些网络管道并不喜欢他们，因为他们占用了大部分带宽却不愿支付额外费用。

Netflix was having all these issues through all the net neutrality stuff where as you're about to suggest, the pipes did not like them because they were taking up most of the bandwidth but not paying anything special to be on them.

所以 Netflix 的速度被限速了。

So Netflix was getting throttled.

那他们是怎么做的呢？

So what did they do?

他们创建了 fast.com，并将其放在与他们内容相同的 IP 段和相同的 CDN 上。

They created fast.com and put it on the same IP block and on the same CDNs as their content.

然后他们发起了大规模的宣传活动，鼓励用户使用。

So then they were they ran a big campaign and encouraged users.

顺便说一句，fast.com 是检查上传和下载速度的好方法。

By the way, fast.com is a great way to check your upload and download.

它比 speedtest 简单轻便得多。

Is far sort of like simpler and lighter than speed test.

他们鼓励消费者说：如果你觉得Netflix卡顿，为什么呢？

They encourage consumers, hey, if you ever feel like, gosh, it might why is my Netflix slow?

去fast.com看看，把你实际测出的速度和你认为网速应该有多快做对比，就能知道你的ISP在上传和下载速度上到底怎么对待你了。

Go to fast.com, and and compare that against however fast you think your Internet should be, and you'll get a a reading of, you know, what your ISP is actually treating us as in terms of upload and download speed.

有意思。

Interesting.

当然了，本，你这里提到的就是限速问题。

Well, of course, Ben, what you are referencing here is throttling.

有线电视公司、互联网服务提供商，他们开始对Netflix限速，因为Netflix威胁到了他们的整个商业模式。

The the cable companies, the the ISPs, they start throttling Netflix because it's a competitive threat to their whole business model.

那Netflix该怎么办呢？

So what does Netflix do?

里德·哈斯廷斯说：我可以玩政治游戏。

Reed Hastings is like, I can play politics.

我知道这背后的运作方式。

I know how this works.

回想一下第一部分，他在加利福尼亚州教育委员会任职的时候。

Remember back to part one and his days on the California Board of Education.

他成立了一个政治行动委员会，名为FLIX PAC，不是为了支持某个特定的政治候选人，而是为了游说联邦通信委员会制定网络中立规则。

He starts a PAC, a political action committee called not to support a particular political candidate, it's called FLIX PAC and it's to lobby the FCC to set up net neutrality rules.

所以，如果我们回到过去，回想一下网络中立是什么时候开始成为话题的？

So, if if you we all go back in the time machine a little bit here and start remembering when did net neutrality start becoming a thing?

我们最早是什么时候开始听到这个说法的？

When did we first start hearing about this?

那是2010年，正是由于这个原因。

It was in 2010 and it was because of this.

而且正是由于Netflix，才让人们重新记起了那些关于网络中立、反对SOPA等运动，这些活动背后是谁在推动？

And it was because of Netflix that really, remembered all these campaigns about like, you know, net neutrality and stop SOPA and all this stuff like, who's behind it?

大卫，我们有些人早在2007年就写过一篇长达40页的关于网络中立的论文。

David, some of us wrote a big 40 page thesis paper on on network neutrality in 2007.

所以，你知道的，那种老派的网络中立。

So like, you know, hipster net neutrality.

你只是走在了趋势前面。

You were just ahead of the curve.

是的。

I was.

这是我一生中唯一能这么说的时刻。

It's the only time in my life I can ever claim that.

我记得那些激烈的大规模斗争。

And I remember these big huge, huge fights.

最终在2010年，Netflix赢了，联邦通信委员会批准了规则，基本上禁止了互联网服务提供商屏蔽内容。

And and then finally at the 2010, Netflix wins and the FCC approves rules essentially preventing ISPs from from blocking content.

如今这些规则又受到了威胁。

That's under attack again today.

我其实不太清楚今年或去年特朗普政府时期联邦通信委员会最新裁决的细节，但我认为他们推翻了很多规定。

I don't know actually the details of the latest FCC ruling this year or last year in the Trump administration, I believe reversed a lot

这些内容。

of this.

这是那种我一直在关注的事情，但后来其他全球新闻变得太疯狂了，我就跟丢了线索。

This is one of those things I followed and then the rest of the world's news got so insane that I lost the thread.

是的，我也是。

Yeah, me too.

所以我无法权威地谈论这个话题。

So I cannot speak authoritatively

anymore.

on this anymore.

无论如何，2010年对奈飞来说是非常顺利的一年。

Anyway, 2010 basically goes really well for Netflix.

他们投入了大量资金，业务迅猛增长。

They're spending a lot of money, they're they're growing hugely.

2011年也以非常积极的态势开局。

2011 also starts on a very positive note.

他们终于启动了国际扩张。

They finally launched international expansion.

由于需要与各国邮政系统以及整个基础设施合作，通过DVD租赁业务拓展国际市场非常困难。

Now international was hard to do with the DVD rental business because you needed, you know, basically cooperation of the national post office and all this infrastructure and everything.

但流媒体就不同了，它只是数据流。

But streaming, you know, it's just it's just bits.

它不是实物。

It's not Adams.

结果发现，世界上很多地方的人都说英语，并且观看美国制作的好莱坞视频内容。

And turns out a lot of the world speaks English too and watches US made, Hollywood, video content.

所以，他们首先自然地扩展到加拿大，然后在同一年年底前扩展到墨西哥和拉丁美洲。

So first, they expand first in Canada, naturally, and then before the end of the year in Mexico and Latin America.

这成为他们在2010年代后续几年中巨大的增长动力。

And this becomes a huge, huge growth driver for them over, you know, the subsequent throughout the twenty tens.

如今，国际业务对Netflix来说已经比美国本土业务更大。

Now international is a bigger business for Netflix than their US business.

所以一切进展顺利。

So all going well.

他们现在仍然处于巅峰状态。

They're still kind of on the top of the world here.

这是2011年吗？

And this is 2011?

2011年。

2011.

是的。

Yep.

我们上一期好像没聊过混沌猴，对吧？

I don't think we talked about the Chaos Monkey in the last show, Correct?

没有。

No.

我不清楚。

I don't know.

我们没聊过。

We didn't.

我们谈过

We talked about

混沌猴。

the Chaos Monkey.

说吧。

Go for it.

好的。

Alright.

所以，这是奈飞决定更大规模地成为一家互联网公司的时候，你知道的，我们是一家流媒体公司。

So this is the the time that Netflix decides we're fully now an Internet company in a bigger way, you know, that we're a streaming company.

因此，我们需要在技术上达到世界一流水平。

And so we need to be world class at technology.

任何今天观看奈飞的人都知道，它的稳定性非常好，几乎总是能正常运行。

And anybody that has that watches Netflix today sort of knows, like, it is remarkably bulletproof, like, that it kinda always works.

那这是怎么做到的呢？

And how how is that?

Netflix发明了一种现在可以在GitHub上找到的工具，它是2011年推出的一套开源软件的一部分，叫做混沌猴子。

Well, Netflix invented something that you can find on GitHub now that's part of a larger suite of software, that's that's open source in 2011 called the Chaos Monkey.

混沌猴子在最初版本中的作用是，你可以在服务器上，也就是在整个基础设施上启动这个软件包，它会随机在系统的各个内部组件间游走，随意终止进程。

And what the Chaos Monkey in its original incarnation did was it was a software package that you would turn on on the server, sort of on your on your whole infrastructure, and it would just start pinging around all the different, you know, internals of your system and just kill random processes at will.

它真的就是一只混沌猴子。

It was literally a Chaos Monkey.

是的。

Yeah.

它的核心理念是，防止失败的最好方式就是不断经历失败，从而构建出极其健壮的系统，能够优雅地降级，而不是 catastrophically 崩溃。

And and what it would do and the the philosophy behind the whole thing was what better way to prevent failure than to always be failing and be able to construct systems that are extremely resilient and sort of fail gracefully instead of failing in a catastrophic manner?

因此，他们最初的一些做法是，用户体验可能会下降，比如分辨率变差，或者推荐内容不可用，又或者你的个人资料无法加载。

And so some of the original things that they did were the, experience could degrade where the resolution would get worse, or where your recommendations weren't available, or your profile wasn't available.

但你始终能做Netflix用户最想做的那件事——搜索内容并观看。

But you could always do the number one thing that people wanna watch on Netflix, which is search for a thing and then watch it.

这种思维模式简直令人惊叹，要知道在2011年，他们就已经在开创这种理念，而如今它已经被大量公司采用。

And it's just crazy impressive mentality that, you know, back in 2011, they're pioneering sort of like a it's actually it's used in a ton of companies now.

有一本著名的书叫《混沌猴子》，讲的是整个硅谷的故事。

There's that book famously named Chaos Monkeys about about Silicon Valley in general.

这是一项非常出色的基础设施决策，也展现了那里工程团队的卓越才华。

It's sort of a brilliant infrastructure decision and just showed the, the sort of level of talent in the engineering department there.

他们现在仍然像朝九晚五一样运行它。

They still run it now like nine to five or something.

所以他们不必在半夜把人叫醒，因为混沌猴子搞垮了某个仍然很敏感的系统。

So they don't have to wake people up in the middle of the night because the Chaos Monkey tipped something over that that, was still sensitive.

这非常有人性化。

It's very humane.

这是一只有人情味的混沌猴子。

It's a humane Chaos Monkey.

这正是即将在这里发生的事情的恰当比喻。

An apt analogy for what's about to happen here.

我觉得这也是奈飞公司业务层面的故事：有一个混沌猴子运行了一个月，不断让他们自食其果，但他们依然坚持下来，业务变得极其稳健。

I feel like this is also the story of the business side of the Netflix house which is like there's a Chaos Monkey running a month and they keep shooting themselves in various body parts but managed to persevere, and are very, very robust, as a business.

所以到了2011年夏天，多米诺骨牌开始转向另一边。

So summer twenty eleven now, this is when the dominoes start to tip the other way.

他们发布了一个公告。

They make an announcement.

所以，我们现在又进入了流媒体业务的几年后。

So again, we're now a couple years into this streaming business.

这再次实现了即时的产品市场契合。

It's again, instant product market fit.

人们非常喜欢它。

People love it.

它占了互联网流量的20%。

It's 20% of the Internet.

他们知道这就是未来。

They know this is the future.

直到此时，所有订阅Netflix DVD租赁服务的用户都已自动获得了流媒体服务。

So up until this point, everybody who was a Netflix subscriber to the DVD rental business just got the streaming baked into it.

你就只是订阅了Netflix。

Like you just subscribed to Netflix.

这只是一个产品。

It's just one product.

就像Prime一样。

It's like Prime.

我们只是往里加点东西来吸引用户。

We're just gonna throw stuff in to sweeten the offer.

没错。

Exactly.

2011年夏天，他们改变了定价结构。

Summer twenty eleven, they change the pricing structure.

他们发布了一则新闻稿。

They issue a press release.

这份新闻稿里有几件事。

And there are there are a few things in this press release.

引起所有关注的是，他们推出时宣称这是一次降价。

What gets all the attention is they come out they build this as a price cut.

但实际上完全不是这么回事。

It's anything but in reality.

别开玩笑了。

Come on.

别隐瞒重点。

Don't don't bury the lead.

比如公关准则第一条：如果你要宣布一件消费者讨厌的事情，别把它做成标题。

Like PR rule number If you're about to announce something that consumers hate, do not make the title.

你一定会喜欢这个。

You're gonna love this.

我以为你在指责我隐瞒重点。

I thought you're accusing me of burying the lead.

没有。

No.

重点在后面。

The lead comes later.

分开发布。

Separate release.

但没错。

But yes.

是的。

Yeah.

不。

No.

不。

No.

我说的是，是的，

I'm saying, yeah,

那个Netflix。

that Netflix.

那份新闻稿，硬核埋葬。

That press release, hardcore burial.

是的。

Yeah.

这是自伤性枪伤案例一。

This is Gunshot wound self inflicted number one.

那么他们做了什么？

So what did they do?

他们调整了定价层级，现在提供了三种选择。

They they changed the pricing their pricing tiers to so they they now have three options.

你可以仅订阅DVD租赁服务，他们为此设置了更低的价格。

You you can subscribe to just DVD rentals and they build that as a price cut.

比之前单独订阅Netflix还要便宜。

Cheaper than what just subscribing to Netflix was before.

你可以订阅

You can subscribe to

与此同时，他们知道更大的使用量来自流媒体方面。

Meanwhile, they know the greater usage is on the streaming side.

是的。

Yeah.

对。

Right.

你可以仅订阅流媒体服务，价格也比旧的捆绑式Netflix计划更便宜。

You can subscribe to just streaming for also cheaper than the price of the old bundled Netflix plan.

或者你可以选择捆绑套餐。

Or you can have the bundle.

你可以同时选择两者。

You can have both.

价格会上涨，我想大概是20%到25%左右。

And that goes up, I think like 20% of price or 20 or 25% or something like that.

人们对这种所谓的降价反应非常负面。

People react very negatively to this quote unquote price cut.

负面反应如此强烈，他们几乎瞬间流失了百万订阅用户。

So negatively, they lose a million subscribers basically instantly.

现在他们的用户基数增长了很多，所以像第一部分那样流失一百万用户，已经不像以前那样相当于丢了20%的业务了。

Now they've grown a lot, so it's not like, you know, losing a million subscribers back in part one was like losing, you know, 20% of their business.

但即便如此，股价还是受到了重创。

But still, like, it's the stock price takes a beating.

是的。

Yeah.

这仍然非常显著。

It's still very significant.

人们非常不满。

People people are very upset.

我父亲就是其中之一，我不知道他现在是否还听这个节目，但我清楚记得，他曾经因为这件事整整一年或两年都没用Netflix，之后才重新注册，当时他气坏了。

My father was one of them, and I I don't know if he still listens to the show, but I distinctly remember him, like, boycotted Netflix for a year or two before he signed back up, and he was furious about this.

再说一遍，这发生在经济衰退期间。

Again, this is the recession.

这简直太不敏感了。

Like, it's just so tone deaf.

人们真的很喜欢Netflix。

Like, people loved Netflix.

人们当时失业了，切断了有线电视，却依然保留着Netflix，因为这几乎是他们的快乐源泉。

Like, people were losing their jobs and cutting the cord on their cable company, but keeping Netflix because this was like their, you know, their happiness.

它在那些品牌评分中几乎是最高级别的之一。

Like, it was like one of the most high whatever the you know, those brand ratings that they do.

Netflix当时和苹果、亚马逊一样，是美国最顶尖的品牌之一。

Netflix was like up there with Apple and Amazon and like the very, very best best brands in America.

这造成了巨大的伤害。

And this just did huge damage.

人们感到被背叛了。

People felt betrayed.

他们的股价也暴跌了。

Their stock plummeted too.

我的意思是，Netflix 一直以来的价值都建立在用户增长上，而最近更是主要依赖于下个季度预期的用户增长。

I mean, I think Netflix has always sort of been valued on their subscriber growth, and actually more recently really on sort of what their projected subscriber growth will be next quarter.

而这次却出现了用户数量实际减少的季度。

And this was to have a down quarter where they actually lost subscribers.

这怎么可能？

It was like, what?

是的。

Yeah.

过去唯一一次出现这种情况，就是在第一部分提到的 Blockbuster 推出 Total Access 的时候。

The only time this had happened in the past is what we saw in part one when when Blockbuster launched Total Access.

那他们接下来会怎么做？

So what are they gonna do?

哈斯廷斯当然有计划。

Hastings has a plan, of course.

不过，我之前忘了提一下。

Now, we should know I I forgot to mention earlier.

2010年，还有一件酝酿已久的事情发生了，令人遗憾的是，Netflix的伟大英雄巴里·麦卡锡退休并离开了公司。

At the 2010, also something, you know, long time coming foreshadowed that we knew happened, sad for Netflix, their great hero, Barry McCarthy, retires and leaves the company.

他决定不抛下朋友们独自面对与亚马逊的生死搏斗——抱歉，我说的是与亚马逊的对抗，当时他们认为亚马逊即将入局。

He decided not to leave his friends in the knife fight against Blockbuster I'm sorry, against Amazon when they thought that Amazon was coming in.

所以现在他们安全了，他也可以离开了。

And so, now now they're safe so he can leave.

他离开后，休息了一段时间。

He he leaves and, he takes some time.

他成为TCV的投资人，随后短暂任职于Clinical，接着如我们之前那期节目中所谈的，加入了Spotify。

He he becomes an investor with TCV and, then does his short stint at clinical and then joins Spotify as as we talked about in that episode.

但回到Netflix的话题上。

But back to Netflix.

现在没有巴里·麦卡锡了。

So there's no no Barry McCarthy.

你知道的，他有个计划来应对这个问题。

Read you know, he has a plan to address this issue.

他认为解决问题的方法是，你知道的，他预见了未来。

He thinks that the way to do it is, you know, he knows the future.

是公众没有明白这一点。

It's the public that doesn't get it.

他们不明白流媒体才是未来。

They don't get that streaming is the future.

他要让这些人看清这一点。

He is going to open their eyes to this.

他只需要再加把劲。

He just needs to push harder.

在那份最初的新闻稿中，他们提到降价，结果引发了巨大的负面反应。

In that first press release, they about the price cut, quote, unquote, they got so much negative reaction.

快结束时，他说，你知道的，这预示着我们最终会把DVD租赁业务拆分出来，成为一个独立的业务。

Kinda at the end, he said, you know, and this is a precursor to we are going to spin off the DVD rental as a separate business eventually.

他决定解决这一切的方法是，解释这其实是更大战略的一部分，推动拆分并付诸实施，向美国公众展示未来的方向。

He decides that the way to fix all of this is explain that this is really part of the bigger strategy and to do this spin off and execute it and show America, like, the path forward.

所以他决定采取这种方式，计划是将DVD租赁业务拆分为Qwikster，而我们上一期没提到的Netflix老高管安迪·伦迪克，据我所知，他之前一直负责所有的DVD业务。

So he decides the way he's gonna do this so so the plan is that they're spinning off the DVD rental business into Qwikster and a longtime Netflix, executive who we didn't talk about in the last episode, Andy Rendict, who who ran, I believe ran out all DVD operations.

他现在将成为Qwikster的CEO。

He's gonna be the CEO now now of Qwikster.

是的，他已经在公司待了差不多十二年。

Yeah, he'd been there for like twelve years

对，他确实在那里待了非常非常久。

or Yes, he'd been there for a long, long, long time.

他们打算怎么做呢？

How are they gonna do this?

他们要效仿当下所有潮流人士的做法。

They're gonna do what all the hip kids are doing these days.

他们要拍一段视频，上传到YouTube，让它病毒式传播，让每个人都能理解这个愿景。

They're gonna make a video and they're gonna post it on YouTube and it'll go viral and everybody will understand the vision.

这就像是百视达那个便利店小哥卷土重来，说：孩子们，他们都会回来的。

This is like the the seven eleven dude at Blockbuster coming back and be like, the kids, they're gonna come.

他们将在百视达门店吃披萨。

They're gonna eat pizza at the Blockbuster stores.

是在街区办派对吗？

Was it was it party on the block?

让街区摇起来。

Rock Rock the the block.

让街区摇起来。

Rock the block.

这是奈飞的‘让街区摇起来’时刻。

This is the rock the block moment for Netflix.

他们将在YouTube上发布一个病毒式视频。

They're gonna post a viral video on YouTube.

他们拍了一个视频，里德和安迪一起拍的。

Well, they make a video, Reed and and Andy.

他们拍了一个视频，确实在2011年9月火了。

They they make a video, and it does go viral, in September 2011.

标签：赢了。

Hashtag winning.

标签：赢了，但却因为错误的原因走红了。

Hashtag winning, but it goes viral for the wrong reasons.

我们会在节目笔记中链接这个视频。

We will link to this video in the show notes.

它仍然在Netflix的YouTube频道上。

It is still on the Netflix YouTube channel.

我觉得这可能是我见过的最尴尬的事情了，是的。

I think this might be the most painful thing I've ever yep.

它还在那里。

It's still there.

所以，我以为它会在YouTube上，由其他人发布，很多人都转载并复制到了自己的账号上。

I so I I thought it would be, you know, on YouTube, somebody else, and many people have mirrored it and, you know, copied it on on their accounts.

它仍然在Netflix的账号上。

It's still on the Netflix account.

这太棒了。

This is amazing.

他们感到自豪。

They're proud.

他们感到自豪。

They're proud.

天啊。

Oh my god.

这是我一生中看过的最痛苦的视频之一。

This is the one of the most painful videos I've ever watched in my life.

想象一下你所能想到的最不酷、最虚假、最 corporate、最爹味的事情，然后把它再乘以十。

Imagine the least, like, cool, most fake, like, corporate, like, dad thing you could ever imagine and and then multiply it by 10.

这就是了。

That's this.

太糟糕了。

It's so bad.

这是一段三分半钟的视频。

And it's a three and a half minute video.

他们俩基本上是按脚本表演的，想显得时髦又酷。

The two of them basically, like, it's, like, scripted, so, like, they're trying to be hip and cool.

他们坐在Netflix总部外的户外家具上，Reid穿着一件青绿色的衬衫。

They're on, like, patio furniture outside the Netflix headquarters, and Reid is wearing, like, a, like, a teal, like, shirt.

他留着山羊胡，而当时大多数人还没见过Reid本人。

He's got his goatee, and, like, most people never seen Reid in person at this point.

听众们，如果有一天我们也这样，变得完全听不出自己的语气有多脱节，也许我们现在已经这样了。

Listeners, if if if this is ever us and, like, we are we become, like, tone deaf, like well, maybe we are already.

请给我们发邮件。

Please write us emails.

好的。

Yeah.

拜托了。

Please.

Acquiredfm@Gmail.com。

Acquiredfm@Gmail.com.

哦，别担心。

Oh, don't worry.

如果我们做这样的事，我不会担心收到反馈，因为这个视频发布后几天内，他在个人博客上就收到了三万条评论，基本上都在骂他，说这玩意儿太烂了。

If we do something like this, I wouldn't be worried about getting feedback because within like days of this getting posted, read on his personal blog, he gets 30,000 comments on his blog, basically just trashing him for, like, how bad this is.

所以《周六夜现场》这个视频变得超级火。

So Saturday Night Live, they it's so this goes so viral.

他们在《周六夜现场》上对这个视频进行了恶搞。

They parody the video on Saturday Night Live.

他们请了弗雷德·阿米森，就是那个《波特兰迪亚》的演员。

They've, Fred Armisen, the, you know, the Portlandia guy.

他演安迪，我不记得谁演里德了。

He's Andy, think, and I forget who does does read.

我们也会在节目笔记里附上这个链接。

We'll link to this in the show notes too.

这简直太搞笑了。

And it's just like, it's so funny.

你知道吗，第一次发布新闻稿时，股价就崩了。

You know, the stock price got crushed the first press release.

这次更惨，连Netflix和Qwikster都成了全网的笑柄。

This time it gets crushed even for like Netflix and Qwikster basically become the laughing stock of the Internet.

他们很多重大押注都成功了，但也有很多没成功。

A lot of their big bets pay off, lot of them don't.

但他们敢于下大注。

But they take big bets.

他们确实敢于下大注。

They take they take big bets.

这次他们真该再仔细考虑一下。

So this is one they really should have thought through a little more.

在七月发布新闻稿之前，他们的股价是每股305美元。

Before the July press release, they were trading at $305 a share.

Qwikster宣布后，股价跌到了每股65美元。

After the Qwikster announcement, they're down to $65 a share.

所以，他们在短短几个月内就损失了大约80%的公司价值吗？

So they lose like, was that 80% of their value as a company in like a couple months here?

至于Qwikster这件事本身，其中很大一部分问题在于他们宣布的方式以及事情的处理过程。

And the Qwikster thing itself, like part of it is a big part is the way they announced this and how this went down.

而且这整个计划也显得很不成熟。

It's also just like it's half baked.

这根本不是一个好产品。

Like this is not a good product.

执行得也不到位。

This is not well executed.

没有经过充分的思考。

This is not well thought through.

所以当他们宣布拆分，要求用户在Qwikster和Netflix上分别注册账户、分别付费、分别管理推荐列表、分别联系客服时，客户们就...

So customers, when they they announced the spin off into it, you have to have a separate account on Qwikster and Netflix, separate billing, separate queues that you manage, separate customer service, like

完全是两家公司，老兄。

Separate company, man.

你还能指望什么？

What do you expect?

是的。

Yeah.

这简直是一场糟糕透顶的体验。

Talk about like a terrible experience.

这才是真正的致命一击。

This is this is like the kicker here.

Netflix甚至都没抢到Qwikster的Twitter账号。

Netflix didn't even grab the Qwikster Twitter handle.

结果有个家伙占着Qwikster的Twitter账号，他是个抽大麻的足球运动员。

So there was some dude out there who had the Qwikster Twitter handle and fairly he was like a pot smoking, like soccer player guy.

他开始公然嘲讽Netflix，公开勒索他们，简直糟透了。

And he's like just starts trolling Netflix and is like publicly extorting them and like, you know, so bad.

太糟糕了。

So bad.

这最终结果是什么？

What is the net of this?

到底发生了什么？

What what all happens?

就在一个月内，那是九月，他们发布了这个愚蠢的YouTube视频，宣布推出Qwikster。

Within one month, it was September when they do this ill advised YouTube video announcing Qwikster.

一个月内，他们就取消了Qwikster。

Within a month, they cancel Qwikster.

他们彻底解散了整个项目。

They completely unwind the whole company.

安迪、伦迪克，你知道的，那位在Netflix工作了十二年的老员工，被任命为CEO，他也走了。

Andy, Rendict, you know, the the twelve year next Netflix veteran who'd been tapped as CEO, like, he's gone.

他辞职了。

He resigns.

他离开了公司。

He leaves the company.

所有那些转到Qwikster的人，大概一半都被裁了。

Everybody, you know, like half the people who'd gone over to Qwikster, they get laid off.

他们都没了。

They're gone.

这正是Netflix和里德的一个特点，他们做重大决定时。

Like, they just completely, like I mean, this is one thing about Netflix and and and Reid is, like, they make big decisions.

他们做决定时充满信心。

They make them confidently.

如果发现决定错了，他们就会立即叫停。

And, you know, if they're the wrong thing, then they pull the plug.

所以他们叫停了Qwikster。

So they they pull the plug on Qwikster.

好了，各位听众。

Alright, listeners.

现在是感谢我们节目的新朋友Intapp的好时机。

Now is a great time to thank new friend of the show, Intapp.

你可能最熟悉他们的产品DealCloud。

You are probably most familiar with their product, DealCloud.

是的。

Yeah.

DealCloud是私募资本和投资银行领域的领先交易管理与智能平台。

DealCloud is the premier deal management and intelligence platform for private capital and investment banking.

所以，如果你在一家私募股权公司，你的交易线索和客户关系管理系统很可能正在使用它。

So if you're at a PE firm, there's a pretty good chance your pipeline and CRM is running on it right now.

对。

Yep.

但Intapp的实际范围要广泛得多。

But Intapp is actually much broader.

它本质上是专业机构——金融、法律、会计和咨询领域的操作系统。

It's essentially the operating system for professional firms, financial, legal, accounting, and consulting.

Intapp 支撑着这些公司的各项流程，包括业务开发、客户接待、合规管理以及工时记录。

Intapp powers the workflows that run these firms, origination, business intake, compliance, and time capture.

他们上个月刚刚发布了一款非常有趣的产品——Celeste，他们的智能代理 AI 平台。

And they just announced a product last month that's super interesting, Celeste, their agentic AI platform.

我们花了一些时间体验了这款产品，立刻就明白了它的价值。

We spent some time getting a tour of the product, and we instantly got it.

它不仅仅是一个个人生产力工具。

It's not just an individual productivity tool.

它是面向全公司的 AI 系统，内置了机构知识、工作流程、协作功能以及你公司的历史数据。

It's firm wide AI for institutional knowledge with workflows, collaboration, and your firm's history just built right into it.

这大概就是为什么他们在那里把这叫作 Firm AI，对吧，David？

Which, that's probably, David, why they call it Firm AI over there at, Intapp.

是的。

Yes.

是的。

Yes.

确实如此。

Indeed.

它不仅仅是那种会无差别吸收所有信息、可能给专业机构带来巨大风险的通用人工智能。

It isn't just general purpose AI that just ingests everything and can be a huge liability for professional firms.

你需要的是能够了解你的交易历史、保密要求，以及MNPI控制或利益冲突等事项，并能原生尊重所有这些因素的AI。

You need AI that knows your deal history and your confidentiality requirements and things like MNPI controls or conflicts of interest and respects all of it natively.

关于Celeste，有两件事让我印象特别深刻。

So two big things stuck with me about Celeste.

第一，它的上下文引擎，这是一个语义层，能够映射贵机构的专有知识，使智能代理能够基于这些知识采取行动。

First, the context engine, which is a semantic layer that maps your firm's proprietary knowledge so agents can act on it.

如果你曾因行业集中度风险而放弃了一笔交易，Celeste是知道的。

If you, say, passed on a deal for sector concentration risk, Celeste knows.

而且这个决策并不只是锁在高级合伙人脑子里。

And that decision isn't just locked in a senior partner's head.

它被大规模部署，因此体现在全机构的决策中。

It's deployed at scale, so it's reflected in decisions that are made firm wide.

第二，是为交易筛选、利益冲突审查、交叉销售等场景预置的自动化工作流。

And second, prebuilt playbooks for things like deal screening, conflicts clearance, cross selling.

这些智能代理能够自主执行，并内置了治理与合规机制。

Agents execute autonomously with governance and compliance built right in.

对于这些专业机构而言，竞争优势在于其专有知识、人脉关系和交易历史，所有这些都至关重要。

For these professional firms, the competitive advantage is proprietary knowledge, relationships and deal history, all of that.

这就是他们的护城河，而Celeste让这种优势得以规模化。

That is their moat, and Celeste makes that scalable.

它能够连接Snowflake、Microsoft Copilot以及其他生态系统合作伙伴，并且他们今年二月刚宣布与Anthropic和Harvey达成合作。

It connects to Snowflake and Microsoft Copilot and other ecosystem partners, and they just announced partnerships in February with both Anthropic and Harvey.

所以，如果你在私募股权基金、律师事务所或任何专业服务机构，正思考AI如何为整个机构创造价值而非仅限于个人，不妨去查看intapp.com/celeste。

So if you're at a PE fund or a law firm or any professional services firm and you're trying to figure out how does AI create value for the whole firm, not just individuals, go check out intapp.com/celeste.

网址是intapp.com/celeste，或者点击节目说明中的链接，并告诉他们这是Ben和David从Acquired推荐的。

That's intapp.com/celeste, or click the link in the show notes and just tell them that Ben and David from Acquired sent you.

对Netflix来说另一件糟糕的事，哦，当时确实是个坏事。

Another bad thing for Netflix oh, well, bad thing at the time.

我认为从长远来看，2011年对他们来说是好事。

I think good thing in the long term happens for them in 2011.

亚马逊并没有在DVD租赁时代推出Netflix的竞争对手。

Amazon, they didn't launch the Netflix competitor in the DVD streaming in the DVD rental era.

他们推出了Netflix流媒体服务的竞争对手——Amazon Instant Video，进入了流媒体领域。

They launched the Netflix streaming competitor, Amazon Instant Video, and they get into the streaming game.

然后在2012年初，他们还与Epix达成了交易，而Epix正是Netflix之前合作过的合资伙伴。

And then early in 2012, they also do a deal with Epix, the joint venture that Netflix had done a deal with.

他们花费了大约同样的金额，约十亿美元，获得了所有相同的影视内容。

Spend I think about the same amount of money, about a billion dollars, get all the same content.

所以现在，Netflix不仅因为Qwikster这件事自损八百，还面临亚马逊推出Prime捆绑的Amazon Instant Video的竞争。

And so now not only has Netflix just shot themselves, you know, in multiple body parts with this Qwikster thing, now they have Amazon out there which is offering Amazon instant video bundled with Prime.

如果你已经是Prime会员，Netflix就只能说：哦，是的。

If you're a Prime subscriber already, Netflix is like, oh, Yeah.

你之前一直在为Netflix付费。

You were paying for Netflix.

现在我要让你为这个付两次钱。

Like, now I'm gonna make you pay twice for this.

亚马逊那边说，太好了。

Amazon's like, oh, great.

有

Have

啊，完美，你想免费获得这家公司的全部价值主张吗？

a Oh, perfect You want this entire company's value prop for free?

是的。

Yeah.

是的。

Yeah.

是的。

Yeah.

你知道吗，这让我们的产品更有吸引力了。

Do you know, sweetens our offering a little bit.

是的。

Yeah.

给你。

Here you go.

所以，最终结果是，2012年对奈飞来说是极其艰难的一年。

So the net result of this is 2012 is a tough tough year for for Netflix.

我没有逐季回去核实，但我相信他们全年每个季度都没能达到订阅用户目标。

I didn't go back and verify every quarter, but I believe they missed their subscriber targets every quarter of the year.

股价一直低迷，仍徘徊在每股60美元左右。

The stock price is totally languishing, still around the $60 a share.

你知道吗，不过他们在2012年确实做了一件事，虽然没人听说过这个名字，但却预示着未来的一切：奈飞制作了他们的第一部原创剧集，叫《莉莉哈默》。

You know, one thing they do start in 2012 though that is a name no one will recognize but foreshadows everything to come is Netflix produced their very first show called Lilyhammer.

是的，他们确实做了，那部剧是《黑道家族》的翻版。

Yes, they do, which was a Sopranos clone.

我觉得它表现得并不怎么样，我的意思是，我从来没看过。

I don't think it does very I mean, I don't I don't never seen it.

我从来没看过。

I've never watched it.

是的。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

但它是未来美好事物的先兆。

But a harbinger of good things to come.

但2012年还有一件坏事。

But one more bad thing in 2012.

等等，等等，我们回到那些糟糕的部分。

Is Wait, wait, Let's go back to the bad parts.

我们回到那些糟糕的事情上。

Let's go back to the bad stuff.

我们继续吐槽Netflix吧。

Let's keep ripping on Netflix.

这只会让他们的崛起显得更加出色。

It'll just make their rise so much better.

这又是另一件令人难以置信的事，我之前在第一部分完全不知道，现在在这里的第二部分也完全不知道。

This was another unbelievable thing that I, again, I didn't know about the first part in part one and I didn't know about the second part here.

即使你拍一部奈飞特辑，也编不出这种情节。

You cannot make this stuff up even if you did a Netflix special.

卡尔·艾琴，他在2012年股价低迷时登场，后来回归，却成了一个超级反派？

Carl Eichen, who comes in to, you know, the stock price is languishing by the 2012, who returns but acquired supervillain?

他说，巴里·麦卡锡走了。

He's like, Barry McCarthy's gone.

太好了。

Great.

再试一次这个。

Take another go at this one.

再试一次这个。

Take another go at this one.

他重返电影行业。

He is back in the movie business game.

他宣布自己已在公开市场收购了Netflix百分之十的股权。

He announces that he has accumulated a 10% equity stake in Netflix on the public markets.

我认为这是2012年10月。

I believe this is October 2012.

而且，他会开始积极参与进来。

And, you know, he's gonna start getting involved.

我也很喜欢这种情况的发生。

I love how this happens too.

就像在上市公司里，你可以一点点地买、买、再买。

Like in in public companies, you can just slowly buy and buy and buy and buy.

然后，你知道，你不想宣布自己在买入，以免推高股价。

And then, you know, you don't wanna announce that you're buying, so it'll move the stock price.

然后突然间，你就说：嘿，各位，你们可能不知道，但通过各种渠道，我已经持有你们公司十分之一的股份。

And then like suddenly you just say, hey, guys, you may not know this, but through various sources, I have a tenth of your company.

是的

Yeah.

不可思议

Incredible.

你知道吗，他认为Netflix真正该做的其实是，这里管理不善太严重了，但其中蕴含着巨大价值，而流媒体才是未来。

You know, he thinks that that really what Netflix should do, you know, they've been so much mismanagement here, you know, the but it's there's so much value and streaming is the future.

它们具有战略价值。

They represent strategic value.

它们应该把自己卖给一家媒体公司，或者另一家科技公司。

They should sell themselves to a media company or or to another tech company.

你知道他有没有继续持有吗？

Do you know if he held?

也就是说，他现在还是Netflix的主要股东吗？

Like, is he still a major Netflix shareholder?

他一直持有到2015年，然后在2015年宣布已清仓了全部持股。

He held until 2015, and then he announced in 2015 that he had, liquidated his whole stake.

我认为是在2015年年中左右。

I believe it was about halfway through 2015.

他赚了一大笔钱，一大笔钱。

He made a ton of money, a ton of money.

但对那些不喜欢卡尔·伊坎的人，或者如果你站在超级英雄这边的人来说，唯一好的一点是，他错过了之后仍然巨大的收益。

But the only I guess good thing for, people who dislike, Carl Iken or who, if you're if you're on the superhero side of the house here, is he misses out on, like, a ton of gains still.

他在2015年时认为亚马逊会击垮他们，但事实并非如此。

And, like, he believed in 2015 that, like, Amazon was gonna crush them and, well, that hasn't happened.

所以他错过了本可以获得的大部分收益。

So he missed out on the majority of gains that he could have had.

但2012年，尽管发生了这么多糟糕的事，Netflix如今已成为这个庞大流媒体市场中唯一持续领先的玩家，至少在过去三年多里都是如此。

But 2012, despite all this bad stuff that happens, Netflix now, they're they've really been the only player in this huge new market of streaming for the last, you know, at this point three plus years.

他们开始摸索出一些其他人都还没弄明白的事情。

They start figuring a couple things out that that nobody else has figured out yet.

而这才是真正拯救了这家公司的关键。

And this is really what what saves the company.

他们意识到，开始看到人们如何观看流媒体的数据。

They realize they they start see seeing the data for the how people are streaming.

他们做了两件当时并不明显的事情。

They're doing two things that were not obvious.

第一，他们进行连续观看。

One, they're binge watching.

所以当有人开始观看Netflix时，他们会看很长时间。

So like when somebody sits down to start streaming Netflix, they stream for a long time.

如果他们在看电视剧之类的内容，就会一集接一集地看。

And if they're watching like a TV series or something, they watch just episode after episode.

直到此时，媒体内容行业一直基于这样一个假设运作。

And up until this point, the media content industry operated on this assumption.

我记得以前是定点观看，比如人们会在周三晚上8点准时收看《广告狂人》的最新一集之类的。

I remember this of, like, appointment viewing, you know, like, you know, people tuned in at 8PM on, you know, Wednesday to watch the latest episode of Mad Men or whatever.

比如，

Like,

当时那是线性电视，那套模式依然有效。

With that was linear television, that is still what works.

线性电视上最受欢迎的节目仍然是那样的。

All the top shows on linear TV are still exactly that.

而且，实际上，大多数节目还在播映中。

And, actually, most of them are alive.

这一切都围绕着独立的半小时或一小时剧集展开，看一集过过瘾，然后下周再回来收看。

It's just all set around these like standalone like half an hour or one hour like get your fix and then tune in next week.

他们意识到，这并不是人们想要的。

And and they realize that that that's not what people want.

他们希望一次性把整部剧看完。

They wanna watch the whole thing all at once.

与此相关的是，他们还发现，与DVD租赁业务不同，在流媒体平台上真正受欢迎的是电视剧，而不是电影。

And related to that, the other thing that they figure out is unlike the DVD rental business, the content that really works in streaming is television shows, not films.

不是那些自成一体、时长两到三小时的电影，而是那种特别长的、适合连续观看的剧集内容。

Not not these self contained, you know, two to three hour films, but like really, really long form episodic content that people can binge watch.

到目前为止，电视在媒体世界里就像是个小弟弟。

Television at this point, this they're kinda like the, you know, the little sibling of the of the media world.

以前大家想拍的都是那些大制作的爆米花电影。

Like it was the big blockbuster movies that everybody wanted to make.

是的。

Yeah.

这让我想起一个有趣而经典的潮流，我们跳到科技主题，然后再拉回来。

So this brings back an interesting and and classic acquired fashion, jumping forward to tech themes, and we'll pull it back.

但这让我想起我们在漫威那一集里讨论过的一个话题。

But this brings back something that I think we talked about in the Marvel episode.

那就是，我可能记错数字了，但如果你看1985年票房前25名的电影，其中续集的数量大概是三部。

That is there's been a trend I'm gonna get the numbers wrong, but if you look at like in 1985 out of the top 25 movies, the number that were sequels, it was like three.

而到了2015年，情况完全相反，22部电影要么是续集，要么是某种缺乏原创性的IP。

And if in 2015 it was the exact opposite, like 22 were either sequels or some form of unoriginal IP.

因此，好莱坞正越来越把钱花在电影上。

So you have this trend going on where Hollywood is spending more and more money on films.

因此，由于他们每部制作都投入了上亿美元，风险承受能力就降低了。

So because they're spending a $100,000,000 plus on every single production, they're taking less risk.

所以他们更倾向于选择更有把握的项目。

So they want more sort of sure things.

于是他们反复使用已有的IP，比如儿童故事，或者翻拍八九十年代的电影。

So they're reusing IP, from, you know, children's stories or or or bringing back movies from the eighties and nineties.

因此，创新实验必须找到其他出路。

So the experimentation needs to go somewhere.

这和初创公司类似，比如精益创业，通过原型来测试某个IP是否可行。

It's kind of the same thing as startups, like the lean startup, do you sort of prototype whether IP is good or not.

这就为电视的黄金时代创造了机会——吸引了一流的编剧、导演和演员，为那些不愿参与《海王7》这类项目、而想创作原创内容的顶尖人才打开了大门。

So it sort of opens up the opportunity for this golden era of television or golden era of TV shows that attracts really top notch both writers, directors, actors, and it really blows the doors wide open for some of the best people in the business who don't wanna be part of Aquaman seven to go and do something creative and original.

而Netflix正是能够推动这种模式发展的平台。

And and Netflix is sort of the place where you could actually facilitate that format.

本，你提到了2012年的《莉莉哈默》。

Ben, you referenced Lilyhammer in in 2012.

你知道，单看《莉莉海默》本身可能并不是什么特别亮眼的作品，但它却是一个信号，表明Netflix终于搞明白了这一点。

You know, the one probably in and of itself wasn't that much of a bright spot, but that was what, you know, the sign that Netflix had finally kind of figured this out.

他们从客户那里学到的是：我们需要向流媒体平台投入更多以剧集形式为主的电视内容。

What they'd learned from their customers was, hey, we we need to pump more, you know, episodic series based quote unquote television content into the streaming platform.

于是他们制作了《莉莉海默》。

So they they make Lilyhammer.

他们在2012年发布了这部剧。

They released it in 2012.

到了2013年，他们做了两件事。

And then in 2013, they do two things.

第一，我记得当时这件事发生时，虽然我并不喜欢这部剧，但它确实意义重大。

One, they bring back I remember when this happened, even though I wasn't a fan of the show, but it was just such a big deal.

他们重启了《发展受阻》。

They bring back arrested development.

是的。

Yeah.