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得看看这集是哪一集。
Should see what episode this is gonna be.
第十集。
10.
第十集。
10.
简单。
Easy.
欢迎收听《Acquired》第十集，这档播客聊的是那些真正成功的科技收购案。
Welcome to episode 10 of Acquired, the podcast where we talk about technology acquisitions that actually went well.
我是本·吉尔伯特。
I am Ben Gilbert.
我是大卫·罗森塔尔。
I'm David Rosenthal.
我们是你们的主持人。
And we are your hosts.
今天，我们带来的这个收购案例其实并不是科技收购，但我和David还是想聊聊，因为我们俩都对跟飞机有关的东西有点浪漫的情结，而且这个案例特别有意思。
Today, we come to you with an acquisition that is actually not a technology acquisition, but something that David and I were, inclined to talk about anyway because we both sort of have a a little romantic fascination with, anything involving airplanes, and, this this is particularly interesting.
今天我们要聊的是阿拉斯加航空收购维珍美国，就在我们西雅图的家门口。
Today, we're gonna be talking about Alaska Airlines acquiring Virgin America right here in our own backyard in Seattle.
在进入收购历史和细节之前，想提醒你一下，现在就可以在Acquired FM上注册，我们会通过邮件把节目发给你。
Before we get into the acquisition history and facts, wanted to remind you that you can sign up now at Acquired FM to get our episodes delivered via email.
另外，如果你能在iTunes上给我们评分，我们会非常非常非常感谢。
We also, would really, really, really appreciate it if you could rate us on iTunes.
这会帮助我们扩大节目规模，让我们能做更多的事情，从制作到新话题，还有
It'll help us grow the show and expand what we can do with it from productions to new topics and
嘉宾。
guests.
好了，听众朋友们。
Alright, listeners.
现在是时候跟大家介绍我们的老朋友，Vanta。
Now is a great time to tell you about a longtime friend of the show, Vanta.
人工智能把整个安全格局都打乱了。
AI has scrambled the whole security picture.
以前，你只需要在年度审计或一份静态PDF里证明一次安全性，大家点点头就完事了。
It used to be that you proved that you were secure once a year on audit or a static PDF, then everyone would nod, and you're done.
但在一个人工智能优先的世界里，这已经行不通了。
But in an AI first world, that doesn't hold up anymore.
对。
Yep.
现在你的风险面每周都在变。
Your risk surface changes every week now.
某个供应商启用了人工智能功能，或者有人没通知IT部门就接入了新模型，你的安全态势就跟上周不一样了，更别说跟上次审计时比了。
A vendor turns on an AI feature or someone writes in a new model without telling IT, and your posture is different than it was last week, let alone at your last audit.
Vanta自己的研究发现，大约70%的公司都有这种所谓的“影子AI”在运行，完全没有经过任何安全审查。
Vanta's own research found that around 70% of companies have this, quote, unquote, shadow AI running with no security review at all.
这正是Vanta发挥作用的地方。
And that's where Vanta comes in.
他们是领先的代理信任平台，也就是说，他们构建了弥补这个差距的东西。
They're the leading agentic trust platform, meaning they've built the thing that closes the gap.
而他们弥补差距的方式就是Vanta代理。
And the way that they close that gap is Vanta agent.
你可以把它想象成一个GRC工程师，也就是治理、风险和合规，只不过它是软件，而且不睡觉。
Think of it as a GRC engineer, that's governance, risk, and compliance, except that it's software, and it doesn't sleep.
它能发现问题，起草修复方案，并把你在供应商评估上花费的时间减半。
It finds the issues, drafts the fixes, and cuts the time that you'd spend on vendor assessments in half.
减半，
In half,
这正是如今超过16000家公司使用Vanta的原因。
which is exactly why more than 16,000 companies today run on Vanta.
像Ramp、Cursor和Snowflake这样的公司都保持审计就绪状态，并捕捉审计之间出现的风险，涵盖每个供应商、每个AI工具以及整个环境。
Companies like Ramp, Cursor, and Snowflake all stay audit ready and catch the risks that crop up between audits across every vendor, every AI tool, the whole environment.
这才是真正的价值所在。
And that's the real value.
现在信任必须是持续性的，这就是为什么Vanta能自动化你的安全、合规，以及赢得和证明信任所需的工作。
Trust has to be continuous now, which is why Vanta automates your security, your compliance, and the work to earn and prove trust.
我们这边是Vanta的超级粉丝，多年来，真的有几百位听众在他们公司成为了Vanta的客户。
We're huge fans of Vanta over here, and literally hundreds of acquired listeners have become Vanta customers at their companies over the years.
所以你可以通过vanta.com/acquired获得一千美元的优惠。
So you can get a thousand dollars off Vanta at vanta.com/acquired.
网址是vanta.com/acquired，可以省一千美元，就说是Ben和David推荐的。
That's vanta.com/acquired for a thousand dollars off, and just tell them that Ben and David sent you.
好了，闲话少说，David，你想聊聊收购历史和趣闻吗？
Now with that out of the way, David, you wanna dive into acquisition history and facts?
当然。
Indeed.
这会很有意思。
This will be a fun one.
听众朋友们，欢迎留言告诉我们你们的想法。
Listeners, let us know what you think.
我们，别担心。
We're, don't worry.
我们不会改变节目的主题，但我们想找点乐子，分析一个和科技完全不同的行业。
We're not changing the topic of the show, but we thought we'd have some fun and analyze a very different industry than technology.
而且，你知道，这也不是科技收购。
And not to mention the fact that, you know, it's not a tech acquisition.
虽然里面涉及一些科技。
There is technology involved.
但这次我们打破常规的地方还在于，这件事就发生在上个月。
But the the the way we're kinda breaking the mold on this one too is this just happened last month.
对。
Yep.
其实不是上个月，就是本月。
It's not like or this month, actually.
几周前。
Couple weeks ago.
所以这确实是个高度推测性的话题，但我觉得会很有意思。
So this is this is something where it's gonna be highly speculative, but I think it's gonna be a fun ride.
好的。
Alright.
那么，维珍美国航空其实是在2004年由理查德·布兰森创立的，然后经历了一系列复杂的操作，最终直到2007年才在美国正式推出他们的航空服务。
With that, so Virgin America was actually founded in 2004, by Richard Branson, and then had to go through a whole series of machinations to end up finally launching their their airline service in The US, not until 2007.
在那三年里，发生了很多事情。
And over those three years, a whole bunch of things happened.
首先，由于一些奇怪的法律规定，美国国内航空公司不能有超过25%的外资所有权。
So one, it turns out that due to some crazy laws, US domestic airlines cannot be owned cannot have foreign ownership greater than 25% of the company.
真是疯狂。
Crazy.
真是疯狂。
Crazy.
所以布兰森和维珍基本上不得不卖掉公司75%的股份，才有可能运营。
So so Branson and Virgin had to had to basically sell off 75% of the company before they could even have a hope of operating.
这太疯狂了。
It's wild.
而且我觉得他们刚开始的时候，是不是叫维珍美国，后来才改的名字。
And I think at that point when they were first starting, was Virgin USA even, and then they they rebranded it.
他们后来才改名为维珍美国的。
It was later that they rebranded to Virgin America.
所以布兰森把公司75%的股份卖给了几家对冲基金。
So Branson sells 75% of the company to a couple hedge funds.
然后把维珍品牌授权给维珍美国使用。
And and licenses the Virgin brand to Virgin America.
所以维珍美国连自己飞机上涂的维珍标志都不拥有。
So that Virgin America doesn't even own Virgin that's painted on their own airplanes.
对。
Yep.
而且在不同时期，他们一直在讨论要不要放弃维珍这个名字，这样会不会更快获得监管批准，真是疯狂。
And there was talk at various points in time about, ditching Virgin, the name, would that help get regulatory approval earlier, faster craziness.
总之，他们最终扫清了所有的监管障碍。
Anyway, they finally clear all the regulatory hurdles.
他们买了一些飞机。
They buy some aircraft.
他们在旧金山开始运营，以SFO为枢纽。
They start, operations in San Francisco with SFO as their hub.
他们在2007年正式启动。
They launch in 2007.
事情进展得还算顺利。
Things go fairly well.
至少他们没有像很多初创航空公司那样倒闭，而且他们确实有一些重大的技术相关创新。
They they don't die at least like a lot of startup airlines, and and they actually have some some major kind of technology related innovations.
所以在2009年，维珍实际上成为第一家提供机上无线网络（即机上Wi-Fi）的航空公司，这在现在很难想象，你知道，现在坐飞机都离不开它。
So in 2009, Virgin actually becomes the first airline to offer go go in flight wireless, in flight Wi Fi, which is, now it's hard to imagine now, you know, taking it.
就像路易斯·C·K说的那样。
As as Louis C.K.
说的就是，这简直是魔法，是我知道的最新鲜的东西。
Says, is magic and is the newest thing I know that exists.
我还是很讨厌那种情况，你知道的，就是偶尔坐飞机没Wi-Fi的时候。
I still I hate it when I now the random, you know, rare times when you end up on a plane without Wi Fi.
抱歉。
Sorry.
他们还是第一家，我记得，给全机乘客都装上座椅背后互动触摸屏的航空公司。
They also are the first airline to, I believe, to install in flight seat back, interactive touch screens for, everybody, all throughout the whole plane.
更不用说
Not
还有紫色的余晖灯光。
to mention purple afterglow lighting.
更不用说那种夜店风格的氛围灯了。
Not to mention nightclub inspired mood lighting.
对于没坐过维珍美国的听众来说，他们可能完全不知道我们在说什么。
For our for our listeners who haven't flown Virgin America, they're probably gonna have no idea what we're talking about.
但是
But
我觉得这挺西海岸的。
I guess it's a pretty West Coast.
我觉得任何听湾区节目的人肯定都坐过这家航班，因为他们的枢纽就在旧金山国际机场。
I think anybody listening to Bay Area has definitely flown it since they're hubbed out of SFO.
所以维珍实际上在2014年11月上市了，进行了首次公开募股。
So the Virgin actually ends up going public, having an IPO in November 2014.
然后没过多久，大概十八个月后，一场竞购战爆发了，参与方有阿拉斯加航空，他们最终收购了维珍，而且他们一直对维珍感兴趣，传闻说他们早就想收购了，还有捷蓝航空。
And then not that long later, we're about, we're about eighteen months, since then, a bidding war erupts for the company, between Alaska, which ended up buying them, and and had been interested in rumored to be interested in the company in Virgin for for a long time, and JetBlue.
然后在4月4日星期一早上，阿拉斯加航空宣布同意以26亿美元收购维珍，这比上周五维珍股票的收盘价溢价47%，比竞购战传闻出来之前的股价溢价大约80%。
And, and then Monday morning, April 4, Alaska announces that they have agreed to acquire Virgin for $2,600,000,000, which was a 47% premium to the stock's closing the Virgin stock's closing price the previous Friday and about an 80% premium to where the stock was before rumors came out that a bidding war was happening.
这对我来说是第一个警示信号。
And this is the first red flag for me.
我的意思是，我觉得这基本上是一个巨大的溢价。
I mean, I think that Basically, a massive premium.
每次看到这种暴涨，你就会开始琢磨原因，我觉得我们待会儿可以多聊聊这个行业是怎么变化的。
Anytime you see a spike like that, you start to dig into why, and I think we'll we'll talk a little bit more about kind of the way the industry has shifted.
但是随着这么多合并，你知道，一家航空公司要想真正跟那些大公司竞争，唯一的办法就是自己也变得很大，而那些大公司就是美联航、达美、美航和西南航空。
But with all the consolidation, the only way that, you know, an airline can really compete with the big guys is to be big themselves, and the big guys being United, Delta, American, and Southwest.
所以，你知道，西南航空自己也是从小公司起步的。
And so, you know Which itself started as a little guy.
确实如此。
Very true.
我觉得这就像是典型的低成本颠覆案例。
I think that's that's like the typical low end disruption case study.
对。
Yep.
而且他们确实，那是一门很棒的生意，本身也是个非常有趣的故事。
And they're they're really that's that's a great business and a really interesting story on its own.
对。
Yep.
但是，我的意思是，阿拉斯加航空显然在试图竞争，它能收购的航空公司数量有限，而捷蓝航空显然也看到了同样的机会，结果就是这次收购价格被抬得非常高。
But, I mean, that clearly Alaska in in trying to compete, there's there's a limited number of airlines that it could buy, and, JetBlue clearly identified the same opportunity, and the result is this very, very inflated purchase.
是的。
Yep.
所以，当一切尘埃落定，这笔交易的总企业价值最终大约是40亿美元，如果算上维珍航空的债务和飞机租赁的话。
So when the dust clears and all is said and done, the basically, the total enterprise value of the deal ends up being about $4,000,000,000, if you include the debt and the aircraft leases that that Virgin had.
这很有意思，因为通常我们谈论这些收购时，会说，哦，26亿美元的收购，用现金和股票，或者可能全是股票交易。
Which is fascinating because normally when we talk about these acquisitions, we would say, oh, $2,600,000,000 purchase, you know, in cash and stock or maybe an all stock deal.
这次是26亿美元的全现金收购，再加上承担那14亿美元的飞机租赁和债务。
This was an all cash $2,600,000,000 purchase plus taking on that $1,400,000,000 of leases on airplanes and debt.
航空旅行真是个资本密集、固定成本高得离谱的行业。
And what a ridiculous capital intensive high fixed cost industry air travel is.
那可是四个Instagram的价钱，本。
That's that's four Instagrams, Ben.
太疯狂了。
Wild.
然后这笔交易最疯狂的部分，还是相对于科技行业来说的。
And then perhaps the craziest part about this deal is, again, relative to the technology sector.
这笔交易是在几周前，也就是2016年4月4日宣布的。
So it was announced a couple weeks ago, on 04/04/2016.
预计最晚要到2017年初才能完成。
Not expected to close until early twenty seventeen at the latest.
这里还有大量的监管审查需要进行。
Huge amount of regulatory review that has to still has to happen here.
而且我们确实看到过先例，比如美国航空和全美航空的合并，当时就遇到了监管问题，差点
And and we've actually seen precedent, I think in in the American Airlines US Air merger where, there there was regulatory troubles, it almost
没通过。
didn't go through.
政府在那两家航空公司合并时，从它们那里榨取了巨大的让步。
And, the government extracted huge concessions from from those two airlines when they merged.
所以如果到2017年我们还没看到这两家航空公司合并，我们可能以后会再做一期后续节目。
So we may be doing a follow-up at some point in the future if, if by 2017, we don't see a a joined airline here.
而且我们的听众不会因为我们聊航空公司而反感我们。
And our listeners don't revolt against us for talking about airlines.
确实。
It's true.
好吧，那另一个……好。
Well, the other Okay.
这里另一个真正有趣的点是，就交易价格而言，阿拉斯加航空公司并没有26亿美元现金来完成这笔收购。
The other really interesting thing here is in just talking about the deal price, Alaska Airlines does not have $2,600,000,000 in cash to make this purchase.
如果我没记错的话。
They if I if I have my numbers right.
截至2015年11月，根据他们的财报，他们有8800万现金和11亿有价证券。
Is As of November 2015, according to their their earnings, they had 88,000,000 in cash and 1,100,000,000 in marketable securities.
对。
Yep.
所以我认为这里发生的情况是，在与捷蓝航空的竞购战中，阿拉斯加的账目非常干净。
So I believe what happened here is in the bidding war with JetBlue, Alaska has has incredibly clean books.
他们，他们是少数几家真正在投资的航空公司之一
They have, they're one of the few airlines that actually is investing
负债率低，而且实际上拥有投资级债务，对于不是来自投资银行界的听众来说，这基本上意味着，阿拉斯加航空的债务相对于其盈利能力来说足够小，以至于人们认为他们破产的可能性非常非常低，尤其是对于一家航空公司来说。
low debt load, and actually have investment grade debt, which for listeners who aren't in the come from the investment banking world, basically means that, the amount of debt that Alaska has is small enough relative to its earnings power that people think it's very, very unlikely they'll go bankrupt, especially for an airline.
基本上没有其他航空公司能获得这么高的评级，这意味着借钱给他们的人认为他们破产的可能性很大。
No other airline has is rated as highly, basically, which means that people who lend to them think there's a good chance they'll go bankrupt.
那么有没有可能，我理解的是，捷蓝航空不得不认输，因为他们没有那么多可用债务
So is there a chance then that that the way I sort of understand it is is, JetBlue sorta had to cry uncle because they didn't have the amount of debt available
给他们。
to them.
借款能力能够
Borrowing power to be able to
完成收购。
Make the purchase.
对。
Yep.
达到这个价格。
Reach this this price.
但现在这会彻底改变阿拉斯加航空。
But now this is gonna totally transform Alaska.
他们可能会再借个十亿五千万左右的债务。
Like, they're gonna take out another billion and 0.5, perhaps, plus of debt.
为了完成收购，对。
To to make the well, yeah.
我是说，为了完成收购，还要承担债务和租赁。
I mean, to make the purchase and then to to take on the debt and leases that that
而维珍航空在航空公司里也算是债务负担比较低的。
And Virgin was also a fairly low debt load airline as far as airlines go.
但即便如此，这也会显著改变合并后公司的资本结构。
But still, it's changing the capital structure of the company, combined company, pretty significantly.
好。
Great.
我们是不是该进入收购类别了？
Should we move on to acquisition category?
我觉得可以。
That sounds good to me.
要不我先开始吧？
Why don't I start with that?
接下来是收购类别，这个在我看来不一定符合我们通常说的那种——人才、技术、产品、业务线或者其他类别。
Moving on to the acquisition category, this to me doesn't fit our mold necessarily of people, technology, product, business line, or other.
我想，如果非要归类的话，可能都算其他吧。
I I guess if everything fits in other.
从某些角度看，它也算是一条业务线。
In in some ways, it's a business line.
他们收购了一个品牌，没错。
They're they picked up a Yep.
这个品牌人们对它有很强的认同感，而且能接触到不同的客户——前提是他们保留这个品牌。
A brand that people have tremendous affinity for and access different customers with That's assuming they keep the brand.
对，这确实是我们该讨论的。
Well, yeah, and that's that's something we should talk about.
不过说到底，我觉得他们收购的核心是运力。
Ultimately, though, what I think they're acquiring here is capacity.
他们看到了机会，想成为西海岸的航空公司，但目前他们在加州的业务并不强。
They identified the opportunity that they wanted to be the West Coast airline, and right now, they don't have a meaningful presence in California.
是的。
Yep.
他们的枢纽在西雅图。
They they're hubbed out of Seattle.
在旧金山业务很少，洛杉矶更是少得可怜，而这次收购能给他们带来巨大的运力，让他们真正成为西海岸的航空公司。
They have very little San Francisco and even less LAX presence, and this gives them major, major capacity to kind of, be the West Coast Airline.
基本上，你想想看，如果你看看那些航空公司航线图，就是那种印在卡片背面的，密密麻麻的，看得人眼花缭乱。
Basically, you know, if you look at if you if you think about kinda airline route maps that, you know, you see on the back of the cards in the in the in the back Makes your head spin.
通常，就像是从几个大城市辐射出来的蜘蛛网一样。
It's usually, you know, it's like the spider web that emanates from a few major cities.
你知道，阿拉斯加航空的枢纽是西雅图，从西雅图辐射出巨大的航线网络，覆盖美国每个城市，还有几个国际目的地。
You know, the Alaska hub is Seattle, and there's a huge spider web coming out of Seattle to every country in America and or to every city in America and and and several international destinations.
然后其他城市之间的航线就很少了。
And then and then very few route pairs from other cities.
维珍航空也是类似的情况，只不过是从旧金山机场出发。
And and Virgin is the same thing, but just from SFO.
那么在你看来，在我们深入讨论之前，你会怎么归类这个……
So in your opinion then well, before we get into that, how how would you categorize the
对，其实我事先没跟你讨论过，但我也正想沿着你的思路说，在我们的框架里，这最接近业务线收购，就像买下旧金山本地航空公司和西雅图本地航空公司那样。
So, yeah, I was actually I we hadn't discussed this beforehand, but I was gonna go down the same path you are and say, in our framework, this would fit closest to a business line, kinda like, you know, buying the local San Francisco airline and you're the Seattle you know, the local Seattle airline.
但我实际上认为最好的归类是行业整合，你知道，在航空业这样非常成熟老派的行业里，跟科技行业很不一样。
But, but I actually think the best categorization is this is industry consolidation, which is, you know, in a super mature old school industry like the airline industry, very different from technology.
你会经历整合期，参与者之间合并，因为他们觉得需要更大的规模才能竞争。
You get these periods of consolidation where where where players merge with each other because they feel like they need greater scale to to compete.
我觉得我们正在见证的就是这种情况。
And and I and I I think that's what we're seeing happen here.
现在正好可以聊聊阿拉斯加航空是怎么向投资者解释这笔收购的。
And this is an interesting time to to go into how Alaska makes the case to their investors for this.
他们官网上有一份很棒的投资者演示文稿，里面讲了为什么投资者应该对这次收购有信心，他们说我们对这个行业很看好。
There's this great investor deck that they have on their website where they talk about why their investors should feel comfortable with this purchase, and they say that we're bullish on the industry.
从1977年到2009年，这个行业总共亏损了520亿美元。
From '77 to 2009, the industry lost $52,000,000,000.
航空业是出了名的……
And the airline industry is notorious for
对，没错。
Oh, yeah.
我是说，我们真该聊聊这个。我差点把这当成我这周的特别推荐，但我打算说点别的，因为我知道我们会在节目里聊这个。
For I mean, we should talk about there's a great great I almost included this as my carve out for the week, but I'm gonna do something else because I knew we'd talk about it on the episode.
有一篇很棒的文章，是迈克尔·马尔维森和他的团队写的，他是一位很出色的投资者。
There's a great paper, that was written by Michael Malvison and and his team, who's, a great investor.
他曾经是Legg Mason的负责人，那是一家大型共同基金公司，他还在瑞信待了很长时间。
He was he was head of Legg Mason, which is a large mutual fund and at Credit Suisse for a long time.
而且我相信他现在已经回到瑞信了。
And I believe he's now back at Credit Suisse.
他写了好几本很棒的书。
He's written a number of great books.
我记得他还是哥伦比亚商学院的教授。
He's also a professor at, Columbia Business School, I believe.
他写了一篇很棒的文章，叫《衡量护城河》。
And he wrote this great paper called measuring the moat.
这篇文章讲的是护城河的概念，你知道，对投资者来说，这几乎是最重要的东西。
And it's all about the concept of the moat, you know, as an investor is is is sort of the most important thing.
沃伦·巴菲特和伯克希尔·哈撒韦，还有查理·芒格，他们都强调护城河是他们最看重的因素。
You know, Warren Buffett emphasized and Berkshire Hathaway and Charlie Munger, you know, emphasized the moat as sort of the most important thing they look for.
他用航空业作为例子，说明这是一个糟糕的行业，摧毁了大量经济价值，而且根本没有护城河。
And he uses the airline industry as an example of a terrible industry that has destroyed so much economic value and and has no moat.
这个说法，我不确定现在是否还成立。
And this this is, I'm not sure if this I think this is still true.
至少几年前是这样。
Was at least true a couple years ago.
如果你看看航空业自成立以来的情况，再看看所有航空公司汇总的损益表，它一直在亏损。
If you look at the airline industry since its inception, and you look at basically a profit and loss statement for an aggregate of of every single airline, it's lost value.
实际上并没有盈利，如果你看看
It's actually not been profitable if you look at
整个行业。
every The entire single industry.
不仅仅是亏损，而是损失了巨额价值。
Not just lost value, but lost a huge amount of value.
这个行业毁掉了大量资本。
A huge amount of capital has been destroyed in this industry.
当人们说从1977年到2009年，整个行业损失了520亿美元，有趣的是人们还在继续投资。
When, you know, when they say that that '77 to 2009, you know, they've lost $52,000,000,000 as an industry, it is interesting that people continue to invest in it.
然而，从2010年到2015年，过去六年里，它已经产生了
Yet, from 2010 to 2015 over the last six years, it's it's a pre it's It's generated
航空业的好日子。
good times in the airline industry.
是的。
Yes.
450亿美元的价值。
$45,000,000,000 of value.
所以他们引用的一些东西，或者阿拉斯加航空向投资者引用的，是行业结构发生了根本性变化，我认为这在很大程度上，我是说，当你看到正在进行的整合时，他们基本上是在说，碎片化已经结束了，现在的行业结构是，这四家大公司是相对完美的替代品，你基本上会被像牲口一样对待，当你坐在经济舱里的时候。
And so the the some of the things they cite are, or Alaska cites to their investors are a fundamentally changed industry structure, and that, I think, is largely I mean, when you look at the consolidation that's going on, they're basically saying, okay, the fragmentation's gone, and right now the industry structure is that there's four relatively perfect substitutes in these these big ones that are all, you know, you're gonna get treated sorta like cattle when you're in in
经济舱。
coach.
在过去几年里，你看到了，我相信第一次是联合航空和大陆航空合并。
And you've seen in the past few years, I believe the first was United and Continental merge.
你看到了所有主要的传统国内航空公司都进行了整合和合并，然后全美航空和美国航空也合并了。
You've seen all the major legacy domestic airlines consolidate and merge, and then and then US Air and American merged.
所以你就有了这个，这个行业整合的权力结构，实际上代表了，你知道，前四大航空公司之间，占美国国内航空客运量的80%。
And so you've got this, this consolidating power structure of the industry that actually represents, you know, between the top four airlines, 80% of all US domestic airline traffic.
所以这挺有意思的。
So it's interesting.
我今天把它们的市值都查了一遍。
I went and grabbed all their market caps today.
目前最高的是西南航空，市值300亿美元。
Highest right now, Southwest is a $30,000,000,000 company.
达美航空，抱歉，我改一下。
Delta's I'm sorry.
达美航空更高，360亿美元。
Delta's higher at $36,000,000,000.
西南航空300亿。
Southwest at 30.
美国航空250亿。
American at 25.
美联航210亿。
United at 21.
再看看阿拉斯加航空，不算维珍的话，市值是100亿美元。
And then if you look at Alaska is is $10,000,000,000 without Virgin.
维珍是25亿，捷蓝是70亿。
Virgin's 2 and a half, and JetBlue at 7.
所以光看这几家，整个行业的市值加起来差不多是1320亿美元。
So if you just look at the those players, a $132,000,000,000 effectively market cap for the industry.
再想想苹果，市值5900亿美元，你就会开始明白，哇。
And when you think about, like, Apple as a 500 and bill $590,000,000,000 market cap company, you start to understand, like, wow.
整个航空业，如果拿任何一家航空公司跟我们节目里常聊的那些科技巨头比，就会发现，这些公司创造的价值真的不多。
The whole industry here is is you know, if we were looking at this, any given airline and comparing it against one of these mega technology companies that we usually talk about on the show, like, companies just don't create that much value.
或者更准确地说，它们捕获的价值不多。
Or maybe more accurately, they don't capture that much value.
这真的很有意思。
And it's super interesting.
我敢肯定，我们会在节目里深入聊到，航空业的供应链非常吸引人。
I I I'm sure we'll get into, throughout the show, the supply chain of the airline industry is fascinating.
你知道，基本上就是双头垄断，波音和空客是航空公司大型客机的直接供应商。
You know, you've got basically a duopoly that are direct suppliers to the to the airlines in Boeing and Airbus that make the big passenger jets.
他们对航空公司有巨大的影响力，因为虽然有两家，你可以从一家换到另一家，但航空公司不能像谷歌那样，说我们要变成一家全栈公司。
And they have a huge amount of power over, over the airlines because, you know, while there is two of them, you could go from one to the other, it's not like you can say it's not like the airlines can be like a, you know, like a Google and be like, you know, oh, we're gonna, like, you know, become a, you know, full stack company.
我们就是要让你过时，然后自己做云服务什么的。
We're just gonna obsolete you, and we're gonna make our own cloud or whatever.
航空公司不可能自己造飞机。
Like, the airlines can't make their own airplanes.
擅长做服务器和擅长造飞机是两码事。
Getting good at servers is different than getting good at airplanes.
好了，听众朋友们。
Alright, listeners.
现在是时候感谢我们的老朋友ServiceNow了。
Now is a great time to thank our longtime friend of the show, ServiceNow.
如果你在运营一家大型企业，AI代理可能已经遍布各个团队，部署它们已经不再是难事了。
If you are running a large enterprise, AI agents are likely spread across every team, and deploying them is, no longer the hard part.
难点在于了解它们有哪些权限，员工用它们做什么，或者AI在做什么决策。
The hard part is knowing what permissions they have, what employees are using them for, or what decisions AI is making.
对于大型企业来说，AI安全可不是小问题。
AI security for an enterprise at scale is not a small concern.
风险是真实存在的。
Like, the risks are real.
没错。
Exactly.
而AI的挑战在于治理、保护、衡量，并确保它真正带来价值。
And the challenge with AI is governing it, securing it, measuring it, and making sure that it actually delivers value.
这就是ServiceNow打造AI控制塔的原因。
That is why ServiceNow built the AI control tower.
对。
Yep.
AI控制塔为企业提供了一个统一平台，用于查看、管理、治理和优化整个业务中的AI。
AI control tower gives enterprises a single place to see, manage, govern, and optimize AI across the entire business.
而且它适用于任何AI，不只是他们自己的。
And it works with any AI, not just theirs.
你网络上的每个设备，每个系统的每个权限，每个AI代理，都能在一个地方看到并确保安全。
Every device on your network, every permission across every system, every AI agent visible and secure in one place.
ServiceNow能做到这一点，是因为他们花了二十多年时间构建企业的运营骨干，包括工作流程、治理、审批、安全控制以及机构知识，这些支撑着IT、人力资源、客户服务、财务和安全等各个领域实际工作的完成。
And ServiceNow can do this because they've spent more than twenty years building the operational backbone of the enterprise, the workflows, governance, approval, security controls, and institutional knowledge that power how work actually gets done across IT, HR, customer service, finance, and security.
ServiceNow每年运行超过一千亿个工作流程，为超过85%的财富500强企业处理数万亿笔交易。
ServiceNow already runs more than a 100,000,000,000 workflows annually and trillions of transactions for more than 85% of the Fortune 500.
所以当公司需要一个地方来治理企业规模的AI时，他们是在一个已经处于业务运营核心的平台上进行构建。
So when companies need a place to govern AI at enterprise scale, they're building on a platform at the center of how their business already operates.
而且未来不会只有一个AI，而是会有成千上万个AI代理在公司各个职能部门中工作。
And in a future that isn't going to be one AI, it's going to be thousands of AI agents working across every function of the company.
但问题是，谁来管理它们呢？
But the question is, who's managing them all?
所以，如果你想将AI的雄心转化为实际的业务成果，并确保其安全、可靠地大规模运行，就去看看servicenow.com/acquired，告诉他们你是Ben和David推荐的。
So if you're trying to turn AI ambition into real business outcomes and make it work safely, securely at scale, go check out servicenow.com/acquired, and tell them that Ben and David sent you.
回到阿拉斯加航空看好这个行业的原因。
Getting back to the Alaska reasons they're bullish on the industry.
行业结构已经整合了。
The industry structure is consolidated.
这个要点有点像是在吹牛，我觉得，就是强调以回报为导向的领导团队，这有点像自夸，说自己有能力。
This is sort of a BS bullet point, think, but returns focused leadership teams, that's sort of like tooting your own horn and claiming competency.
机场用地受限。
Constrained airport real estate.
这个有点意思。
This this one's sort of interesting.
我猜他们大概是在说，我们现在已经达到饱和点了，不会再建更多机场了。
I guess they're sorta saying, like, we've reached a saturation point right now where we're not building more airports.
机场不会变大，而且你知道，从1960年以来一直是这样。
The airports aren't getting bigger, and over the last you know, since 1960, that's been the case.
现在关键是在现有机场里争夺空间，所以获取运力就变得很有意义了。
And now it's all about sort of vying for space at the existing airports that we have, and then the capacity acquisition starts to make a lot of sense.
对。
Yep.
登机口就那么多。
There are only so many gates.
休闲旅行的增长，这个挺有意思的，值得仔细琢磨琢磨，想想为什么会这样，然后就是新的收入来源。
Growth in leisure travel, which is interesting to sort of pick apart and and and think about why that might be, and then new revenue sources.
而且我觉得我们都可以抱怨一下，我们很清楚航空公司能有哪些收入来源。
And I think we can all gripe about how we are, well aware of all the revenue sources that that airlines can
行李收费、餐食和娱乐收费。
Charging for bags and Food and entertainment.
其中一些是他们新增的服务，维珍和阿拉斯加在机上Wi-Fi、娱乐、电影，还有零食方面都算是走在前沿的，这些零食实际上……
Some of these are new services they've added, and and Virgin and Alaska have both been kinda the bleeding edge here of new in flight Wi Fi and entertainment and movies, and snacks that are actually
能吃的。
edible.
而且和Tom Douglas联名的。
And co branded with Tom Douglas.
对。
So Yep.
每次上那些飞机都觉得特别有意思，尤其是对不是西雅图的人来说，他算是本地的大餐饮老板了。现在连美国航空的零食小册子封面上都能看到汤姆在冲我笑，可见他把这个品牌推广得多远了。
It's always so funny to see to get on those planes and see how far, for for those of you not from Seattle, he's sort of like the big restaurateur in town, to see how far he's leveraged that brand now that I opened the little snack pamphlet on American Airlines, and there's Tom smiling at me in on the front of it.
太喜欢
Love
了。
it.
太有手工艺感了。
So artisanal.
所以，从类别角度来看，我觉得这归根结底还是运力的问题。
So, yeah, from a category perspective, you know, I think, I would chalk it up to capacity.
对。
Yep.
另外我还想再探讨一点，就是这笔交易背后有个挺有意思的背景，西雅图本地人可能知道，但我觉得外地人肯定不清楚——那就是达美航空一直在西雅图给阿拉斯加航空施加很大的压力，就在他们自己的枢纽机场。
And the other the other point I wanna wanna explore here a little bit is, there's a really interesting context for this deal that people in Seattle might be aware of, but I doubt anyone not here is, and that's that Delta actually has been putting a huge amount of pressure on, on Alaska here in Seattle in their in their hub.
过去几年，达美航空在西雅图的业务增长了很多。
Delta has been growing over the last few years, their presence in Seattle a lot.
而且很长一段时间里，我觉得阿拉斯加航空可能一直在担心，或者说是预料到达美会提出收购他们的报价。
And and and for a long time, think Alaska was probably concerned either concerned or expecting that Delta was gonna make an offer to buy them.
但达美并没有这么做。
And they haven't.
相反，他们只是靠自身发展，在西雅图拿下了越来越多的登机口，这真的很有意思。
Instead, they've just organically grown and taken more and more gates here in in Seattle, and it's really interesting.
我跟一位比我们专业得多的航空业专家聊过，他指出，这两家公司——达美和阿拉斯加——的参照系其实很不一样。
I was talking to somebody who is far more of an airline industry expert, than than we are, and and he was making the point that the frame of reference is really different for these two companies, Delta and Alaska.
你知道，阿拉斯加是一家国内航空公司，而且主要专注于西海岸。
You know, Alaska is a domestic carrier and it's a West Coast focused carrier.
达美则是国际航空公司，达美进入西雅图，一方面是为了在国内外跟阿拉斯加竞争，因为阿拉斯加在这里确实建立了很不错的业务。
Delta is an international carrier and Delta coming into Seattle was part about competing with Alaska domestically because Alaska's built a really nice business here.
但可能对达美来说，更重要的原因是把西雅图作为通往亚洲的国际航班门户。
But also, an even bigger part probably for Delta is is using Seattle as a as a gateway to for international flights to Asia.
因为就像你刚才说的，本，登机口资源非常稀缺，而且在西海岸的其他大城市，比如旧金山国际机场和洛杉矶国际机场，竞争太激烈了，根本不可能再拿到更多的场地。
Because gate real estate, as as you were saying, Ben, is is so scarce and and at the other big cities on the West Coast, at SFO and at LAX, is so competitive and impossible to get, to get more real estate there.
我觉得达美航空确实把西雅图看作他们的门户，这样他们可以把全美国各地的人送到西雅图，然后再转机去日本、韩国、中国等等地方。
I think Delta really viewed Seattle as as kind of their gateway so that they could send people from all over The US on flights to Seattle and then hop over to Japan, to Korea, to China, to what have you.
有道理。
Makes sense.
而对阿拉斯加航空来说，现在那个市场他们根本进不去。
Whereas for Alaska, you know, that's not even an accessible market to them right now.
看看这次收购的类别，以及我们俩对它的定义，这笔26亿美元的收购案看起来有点虚高，原因有两个。
In looking at this acquisition category and the kind of the way we've we've both defined it, In a $2,600,000,000 sale that it seems inflated for two reasons.
第一，有点像竞购战，因为市场上能买的好航空公司不多，而且能跟捷蓝航空或阿拉斯加航空很好互补的就更少了。
One, kind of the the bidding war because it was, there was scarcity of good airlines to buy that would complement JetBlue or Alaska well.
第二，很多价值，也就是维珍航空在被收购传闻之前就有的内在价值，其实是品牌价值。
But two, a lot of the value, the kind of intrinsic value that was given to Virgin even before rumors of a sale was brand value.
就是说，他们的客户忠诚度非常高。
Mean, they have tremendous customer affinity.
他们做事的方式有点不一样。
They do things a little bit differently.
喜欢维珍的人就是特别喜欢维珍。
You you People who love Virgin love Virgin.
我每次坐维珍体验都很好。
I always have a better experience.
阿拉斯加航空也一样，喜欢的人也很喜欢。
Alaska love Alaska too.
确实是这样。
It's true.
而且说实话，这两家都是我特别喜欢坐的航空公司。
But and actually, those are two of my favorite airlines to fly.
但维珍确实出了名的与众不同，体验更好，感觉更高级，这些都得算进他们的市值里。
But but Virgin is, like, notoriously different and better and feels premium, and that had to be factored into their their, you know, market cap.
而且想想他们打算怎么用这些资源，阿拉斯加航空已经宣布，到2018年希望能完全改名为阿拉斯加。
And when you think about what they are gonna be used for, I mean, Alaska announced that by 2018, they hope to be fully rebranded as as Alaska.
你知道，希望他们能从维珍那里学到一些东西，而且他们一直在密切关注维珍的做法。
You know, hopefully, can learn some things from from Virgin, and they've been watching them very carefully.
但如果他们把那个品牌给毁了，那当初花高价买运力还有什么意义呢？
But if they obliterate that brand, you know, what what was the point of paying a markup on a markup for capacity?
对。
Yep.
这个观点很有道理。
It's it's a great point.
你知道，阿拉斯加这个品牌本身就很不错，尤其是在航空业里。
You know, the Alaska brand, again, it was it was very good, especially in the airline industry on its own.
我觉得，真的，它给人的感觉非常专业。
I think, you know, really, was kinda, like, very professional.
他们的准点率在业内或者至少在西海岸是最好的。
They had either the best in the industry or the best on the West Coast on time percentage.
有很多优点，非常非常适合商务通勤乘客。
Lots of great you know, very, very business commuter friendly.
而维珍就像我们之前开玩笑说的，像是飞机上的夜店。
And Virgin was like, you know, like we joked earlier, like a nightclub on a plane.
很多方面，它都是我和商学院同学们最喜欢的航空公司，这点就不多说了。
Lots of it was the the favored airline of of all me and all my classmates when we were in business school, and we can leave it at that.
那么，在这个话题上，我还想提一点，就是投资回收期。
So then, one other thing that I wanna bring up in that realm is payback period.
他们，或者说阿拉斯加航空，提到在完全整合后，总净协同效应将达到2.25亿美元。
So they cite in, or or Alaska cites that they'll have two twenty five million dollars of total net synergies at full integration.
所以我们可以从中得出，在完全整合后，也就是大约2018年左右，会有2.25亿美元的成本节省。
So what we can pull from that is that there will be $225,000,000 of cost savings after they're fully integrated, so let's call that 2018 ish.
这意味着，他们可能还能在此基础上创造其他价值，比如利用规模经济来增加收入，这些都是额外的。
And that means that there's probably other value that they that that they can create on top of that, like, ability to create more revenue because they have these economies of scale, new things just on top of that.
但这也意味着，如果我们以40亿美元为基数，仅靠协同效应，这次收购的回收期就是17年。
But that means that they have, on this if we look at the $4,000,000,000 as the figure, that's a seventeen year payback period on this acquisition just on the synergies.
而且，你知道，
And, you know, do
我们认为维珍航空的盈利也会对此有所贡献，但我想说两点，你先请。
we think that Now Virgin had earnings as well that would contribute to that, but two points I wanna make, but go ahead.
不。
No.
不。
No.
你说吧。
Go for it.
我已经把观点说得很清楚了，就是看起来这需要很长时间，对。
I've I've pretty much made the point that, like, it it seems like it's gonna take a while to Yeah.
不管怎么算，回本都需要很长时间。
To recoup any way you slice it, it's gonna take a while.
我觉得这次合并有两个非常让人费解的地方，非常重要，当然一些行业专家也在质疑，但阿拉斯加航空却没怎么提过。
And I think there are two really head scratching things about this merger that that are really important that some certainly industry experts are are questioning, but, you know, Alaska didn't hasn't talked a lot about.
第一，过去几年航空公司经济复苏的主要原因就是燃油价格下跌。
One, the primary reason for the sort of economic renaissance of airlines in the last couple years has been falling fuel prices.
这些成本只是名义上转嫁给了消费者，
Which are only nominally passed on to consumers,
而且大家都有点
and everyone's getting a little
所以整个航空业，从以前在燃油上花一大笔钱，那占了运营预算的很大一部分，把利润率压得很低甚至搞成负的，到现在燃油支出差不多减半了。
And so airlines as a whole across the whole industry have gone from, you know, call it spending x on fuel, which was a huge amount of their of their operating budget and kept their margins, you know, low to negative, to spending, like, x divided by two on fuel.
所以整个行业享受的利润比以前高多了。
And, and and thus they are enjoying, as an industry, much greater profits than they used to.
现在的问题是，这是不是新常态，还是说油价什么时候会再涨回去？
Now the question is, like, is that a new normal, or, like, is our oil prices gonna go back up at some point?
而且，我们其实可以专门做一期关于油气行业的节目，这对整个行业来说是个生死攸关的大问题。
And, you know, we could do another show on the oil and gas industry, and this is a major existential question for that whole industry.
但如果你觉得这只是暂时的，油价还会涨回去——历史上油价确实一直在波动——那老天，你好像是在市场高点买入，这时候利润都是虚高的。
But if you were to take the viewpoint that, like, this is a temporary thing and prices will go back up, which historically they have, you know, fluctuated throughout history, You know, gosh, it seems like you're buying at the top of the market here where where profits are artificially inflated.
所以这是第一点。
So that's one.
第二点，协同效应，正如你刚才提到的，Ben，通常指的是合并后的收入潜力，以及从消费者和航线等方面榨取更多利润的能力，但同时也确实关乎成本节约。
Two, you know, synergies, as as you rightly mentioned, Ben, are are, you know, often about the combined revenue potential and real you know, and and being able to extract more money from consumers and routes and whatnot, but they're they're also really about cost savings.
整合后台。
Consolidating the background.
整合以及规模经济等等这些方面。
Consolidate and and economies of scale and all that front.
但这次收购有个问题，那就是阿拉斯加航空飞的是波音飞机，而维珍航空飞的是空客飞机。
But there's there's kind of a problem here with this acquisition, and that's that Alaska flies Boeing planes, and Virgin flies Airbus planes.
全是空客。
Exclusively Airbus.
他们的整个机队。
Their entire fleet.
阿拉斯加只飞波音，维珍只飞空客。
Only flies Boeing, and Virgin only flies Airbus.
你可能会像我这个外行消费者一样，在深入了解之前觉得，这没什么大不了的。
And you might say as a naive consumer, as I did before I started looking into this, like, no big deal.
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我是说，它们看起来就是飞机嘛。
I mean, like, they looked like it's a plane.
飞机就是飞机。
A plane is a plane.
我上去一看，感觉都一样。
Like, I get on it, it looks the same.
结果发现，它们的控制系统完全不同。
Well, it turns out that, actually, they have completely different control systems.
开波音的飞行员不能开空客，开空客的飞行员也不能开波音。
And pilots who fly Boeing planes can't fly Airbus planes, and pilots who fly Airbus planes can't fly Boeing planes.
所以这两支机队根本没法共用飞行员。
So it's not like they're gonna be able to share pilots at all between these fleets.
没法共用飞行员。
Not gonna be able to share pilots.
而且，所有的维护和零件也完全不一样。
And, of course, all the maintenance and all the parts are completely different.
现在其他主要航空公司确实两种机型都混着用。
Now there are the other major airlines do use a mixed fleet of both.
除了西南航空。
Except for Southwest.
除了西南航空。
Except for Southwest.
对。
Yes.
但是——
But
等等。
Wait.
所以西南航空全部都是波音737，因为他们意识到，他们商业模式的一部分就是要尽可能精简，让所有东西都能完全互换和通用。
So Southwest is entirely Boeing seven thirty sevens because, they realized that in a part of their business model was going to be staying as lean as possible and and and keeping everything totally interchangeable and swappable.
这其实一直是他们向华尔街和投资者讲述的重要故事，你知道的，就是为什么他们是一家很棒的公司。
And that's actually been a big part of their story to Wall Street and investors, you know, about why they're a great company.
这算是他们的一个核心支柱，阿拉斯加航空也是同样的打法。
That's been kind of a pillar of it, and and Alaska had the same playbook.
现在突然之间，他们就成了空客和波音各占一半的局面。
And now all of a sudden, they're like a fifty fifty shop of, you know, Airbus and Boeing.
而且从情感上讲，西雅图的公司怎么能买一家全是空客飞机的公司呢？
And and, you know, from a heartstrings perspective too, how dare a Seattle company buy a company that's entirely Airbus planes?
这太不爱国了。
That's just not patriotic.
西雅图和波音之间有很多复杂又痛苦的历史，可能得另找一期节目来讲了。
Much much sordid and painful history on Seattle and Boeing and perhaps for another show.
所以
So
对，没错。
so yeah.
我觉得这其实正好引到我们通常很短的一个环节，这次可能也会很短，就是如果当初不是这样，会发生什么。
And I think that kinda actually segs into what usually is a short segment for us and I think will also probably be short here of of what would have happened otherwise.
而且在这里，很明显，维珍航空肯定会被收购。
And here, clearly, the other I mean, Virgin was gonna be acquired.
而另一种情况就是捷蓝航空收购了他们。
And and the otherwise was JetBlue had acquired them.
捷蓝航空也是空客的客户，所以他们更容易实现成本协同效应。
Now JetBlue is also an Airbus company, so would have been a lot easier for them to realize cost synergies.
这里我想提两点。
And there's two two points I wanna make here.
第一，维珍航空是最近才开始盈利的。
One, Virgin is sort of only recently profitable.
我记得他们是在2007年成立的。
I think they so they launched in 2007.
花了三年时间才迎来第一个盈利季度。
Took them three years to have their first profitable quarter.
他们一直在努力把自己定位成既是低成本航空公司，又提供高端服务的航空公司。
They're struggling as pitching themselves as both a low cost airline and an airline that has a really premium service.
对。
Yep.
我觉得他们在高端服务方面做得比低成本更好，但这个故事很难讲给消费者听。
And I think that they were better at adhering to the premium service than they were to the low cost, but that's a tough story to to to sell to consumers.
而且我觉得他们一直在纠结怎么同时做到这两点，因为你不可能既是沃尔沃又是凯迪拉克，还能让这个故事持续下去。
And I think they they were struggling with, you know, how how to be both, because you can't both be a Volvo and a Cadillac and have that that story be, you know, sustainable and and enduring.
所以我觉得维珍其实不一定非要卖。
And so I think that, you know, Virgin didn't necessarily need to sell.
他们确实处在合适的时间、合适的地点，正好有……
They were in definitely definitely in the right place, right time where they had a, exactly what
他们拿到了比收购前股价高出80%的溢价，对吧。
They got an 80% premium to their Yeah.
收购前的股价。
Pre acquisition, share price.
那相当不错了。
That that's pretty good.
他们在并购定位上做得不错，值得称赞。
Good good on them for their m and a positioning.
但是，你知道，这看起来有点悬。
But, you know, that that seems like a little bit of a precarious position.
而且，在Pioneer Square Labs，我们经常考虑创办这些公司，如果我说我们要做一家低成本高端的公司，我觉得会招来很多奇怪的目光。
And as as, you know, at Pioneer Square Labs a lot, when we're thinking about starting these companies, I think I would get a lot of crazy looks if I was like, well, we're gonna be a low cost premium company.
这让我想起，我一直在读另一本可能本来会成为我的精选，但不会了。
It reminds me of, I've been reading another could have potentially been my carve out, but won't be.
我一直在听一本很棒的有声书，叫《商业冒险》。
I've been listening on audiobook to a great book called Business Adventures.
冒险。
Adventures.
这是一本经典。
It's a classic.
我记得它写于七十年代，也许是那时候。
It's from I believe it was written in either this in the seventies perhaps.
这是一个好朋友推荐给我的，我一直在听，其实就是十个故事片段，更贴切地说，是商业失败案例。
It was recommended to me by a good friend, and, I've been listening to it, and it's just it's 10 vignettes of, like, more more aptly titled business misadventures.
第一个讲的是六十年代的股市崩盘，但我现在听的第二个是关于埃德塞尔，就是福特推出的那款车，普遍被认为是历史上最失败的产品发布。
The first one is about a stock market crash in the sixties, but the second one that I'm listening to now is about the Edsel, the the car that Ford launched that's, like, widely considered, like, the worst product launch in history.
其中一个关键教训是，福特想让埃德塞尔满足所有人的所有需求。
And one of the key lessons from it is that, like, Ford wanted the Edsel to be everything to everyone.
他们就说，大胆冒险中带点保守。
Like, they say, like, you know, daringly adventurous with a dash of conservatism.
你知道吗？
You know?
这算什么？
And it's like, what?
开什么玩笑？
Are you kidding me?
就是说，既要优雅，适合有抱负的年轻高管，又要让中端市场买得起。
Like, you know, you're or, you know, for the it it's elegant, you know, luxury for the aspiring, you know, young executive, you know, and affordable for, like, the middle market.
这算什么呀？
And it's like, what?
结果它彻底失败了。
And it and it failed spectacularly.
我不是说维珍航空当初就该走这条路，但这家公司一直让我挺费解的。
I you know, I'm not over here preaching that that that that was gonna be Virgin's Path, but that was always sort of a head scratcher to me about that company.
现在我想问你的问题是，在市场竞争这么激烈的情况下，阿拉斯加航空会怎么样？
Now the question that I wanna pose to you is, what would have happened to Alaska in with with all the consolidation in the market going on and kind
比如达美航空那边。
of moving Delta.
四大巨头，达美在本土的压力，如果他们不扩张呢？
Four major players, the pressure from Delta on the home front, you know, what if they don't expand?
对。
Yep.
我觉得，说句公道话，阿拉斯加航空也挺不容易的，我们好像一直在挑这笔交易的毛病。
And I think this you know, to give some credit to to Alaska, I feel like we've been sort of taking potshots at this deal.
我觉得他们当时处境挺艰难的。
They were in a tough position, I think.
你知道，当时他们表现不错，但面临着达美航空的压力，整个行业都在整合，而他们在西雅图这里确实建立了一个非常好的利基市场，无论是航线还是客户服务，对于住在西雅图、从西塔科机场进出的人来说都是最好的，而且商务航线也很棒。
You know, doing well in the moment, but facing this pressure from Delta, this consolidation across the whole industry, and they had developed a really really nice niche, here in Seattle as the the, you know, by far the best routes and customer service for people who live in Seattle and fly in and out of SeaTac, but great business routes.
但他们有点无路可走了。
But they kinda had nowhere to go.
达美航空在这里给他们施加压力。
They were getting pressure from Delta here.
对他们来说真的很难。
Super hard for them.
他们该怎么办呢？
What are they gonna do?
向国际扩张？
Expand internationally?
他们要去其他城市吗？
Are they gonna go to other cities?
他们就是这么做的。
And and that's what they did with this.
他们说，我们得扩张。
They said, we we kinda need to we need to grow.
靠自然增长会非常难。
It's gonna be super hard to do organically.
现在是个好机会，我们资产负债表很健康，而且对航空公司来说，现金储备很充足。
Here's an opportune we have a great balance sheet and and for an airline, a lot of cash.
我们知道，和行业相比，我们运营得相当不错。
We know we're relative to the industry pretty well run.
现在有机会收购维珍，基本上规模翻倍，然后再次执行同样的策略。
Here's an opportunity to buy Virgin and basically double our size and run the same playbook again.
他们本可以维持现状，保持稳定。
They could have just stayed in sorta steady state where they are.
嗯，这挺有意思的。
Well, it's funny.
你当然会希望他们的市场规模能翻倍，因为这次收购太贵了。
You you you you would hope that they double their market size because the the acquisition is so expensive.
但你看阿拉斯加航空和维珍航空的数据，阿拉斯加每年总乘客量是3200万。
But when you look at the numbers of what Alaska's doing and what what Virgin's doing, Alaska has 32,000,000 total passengers a year.
维珍只有700万。
Virgin has seven.
阿拉斯加每天有1000个航班。
Alaska has a thousand departures a day.
维珍只有200个。
Virgin has 200.
阿拉斯加服务112个目的地。
There's a 112 destinations served by Alaska.
维珍只有24个。
Virgin has 24.
阿拉斯加的税前利润是13亿美元。
Pretax profit from Alaska, $1,300,000,000.
维珍是2亿美元。
Virgin, $200,000,000.
所以，这真是一笔昂贵的收购，而对方规模却小得多。
So, like, that is an expensive purchase for a much, much smaller operation.
对。
Yep.
而且规模小得多，在旧金山也没有增长空间。
And a much smaller operation with no room to grow in San Francisco.
我是说，你知道，不只是旧金山国际机场，还有湾区的其他机场，比如奥克兰和圣何塞，这些其实都是通勤机场。
I mean, all you know, not just SFO, but the other airports in in the Bay Area too, Oakland and and San Jose, which are which are diff they're really commuter, you know, commuter airports.
不过给西雅图到湾区通勤的人一个建议，千万别飞旧金山国际机场。
Although pro tip for Seattle to Bay Area computers commuters, never fly to SFO.
你总是得选奥克兰或者圣何塞。
You always gotta do Oakland or San Jose.
因为如果你飞旧金山国际机场，那里雾多，经常有雾导致的延误，而且他们总是延误西雅图的航班，因为他们想让跨大陆的航班准时降落。
Because if you do a SFO, there's so much fog and fog delays, and they always delay the Seattle flights because they want the cross country flights to land on time.
就得选奥克兰或者圣何塞。
Gotta do Oakland or San Jose.
好建议。
Pro tip.
好建议。
Pro tip.
不过话说回来，这些机场都没有扩建的空间了。
Anyway, but there's no room to expand at any of these airports.
好了，听众朋友们。
Alright, listeners.
现在是时候聊聊我们在ACQUIRED的新合作伙伴了，Legora，这个智能体操作系统正在重新定义全球顶尖法律团队的工作方式。
Now is a great time to talk about a new partner of ours here on ACQUIED, Legora, the agentic operating system that is redefining how the world's best legal teams work.
对。
Yep.
很明显，AI将彻底改变法律行业。
It's sort of obvious that AI is gonna completely change the legal industry.
我猜你们很多人都在某个AI聊天工具里丢过合同进去。
I bet most of you listening have dropped a contract into some sort of AI chatbot out there.
Legora从这个想法出发，问了一个问题：如果真从零开始为法律行业打造一个这样的工具，会怎么样？
Legora took that insight and asked the question, what if you really built something with that power from the ground up for the legal industry?
所以创始人做了伟大创始人该做的事，就是极度关注客户需求。
So the founders did exactly what great founders do, operate with obsessive customer focus.
他们在一家大型律师事务所里待了好几个月。
They embedded inside a massive law firm for months.
他们坐在律师旁边，观察实际工作是怎么完成的。
They sat with the lawyers just watching how the work really gets done.
这样才能做出客户喜欢的功能，比如表格审查，你把几百份合同丢进去，它会把所有关键条款提取到一个表格里，律师可以直接操作。
And that's how you get features that customers love, like tabular review, where you drop in a folder of hundreds of contracts and it pulls every key term into a grid a lawyer can actually work with.
Legora的这个赌注很有意思。
Legora's bet here is interesting.
因为它让每个律师能处理更复杂的事情，每个人都能提高工作质量，做更有价值的工作。
Since it lets each lawyer handle more complexity, any given person can increase the quality of their work and do higher value work.
这意味着即使每项任务花费的时间更少，整体规模也能扩大。
And this means that the pie can grow even as each individual task takes less time.
他们最近推出了Legora Agent，提供更强的智能和性能。
And they recently launched Legora Agent, offering greater intelligence and performance.
这个代理让律师设定目标，然后它可以处理规划、执行和最终产品的交付。
The agent lets lawyers set an objective, then it can handle the planning and the execution and delivery of the final product.
法律团队能够保持完全的控制和透明度，因为他们仍然参与需要判断力的环节。
Legal teams get to maintain full control and transparency since they're still involved where judgment is required.
而且Legora在你已经工作的地方就能使用。
And Legora works where you already work.
你可以在Microsoft Word中修订或起草时使用它。
You can use it within Microsoft Word while redlining or drafting.
Legora早期的数据本身就说明了一切。
The early Legora numbers essentially speak for themselves.
当他们与最大的竞争对手进行正面试点时，他们70%的时间都能获胜。
When they have a head to head pilot with their top competitor, they win 70% of the time.
Legora现在平台上有超过10万名律师，来自50个国家的1200个法律团队。
Legora now has over a 100,000 lawyers on the platform from 1,200 legal teams in 50 countries.
而且不可思议的是，他们在大约18个月内，年经常性收入从100万增长到了1亿。
And crazily, they went from 1,000,000 to a 100,000,000 in ARR in about eighteen months.
这数字真是惊人。
Truly insane numbers.
这才是真正的考验。
And that is the real test.
很多产品演示时表现很好，但关键问题是，忙碌的律师助理在赶工时会不会真的去用它，或者合伙人在见重要客户前会不会信任它。
Plenty of things demo well, but the question is whether a busy associate actually reaches for it during crunch time or whether a partner trusts it before going into a conversation with a major client.
如果你的法律团队想了解一下，无论是律师事务所还是公司内部法务，都可以访问legora.com/acquired了解更多，就说是Ben和David推荐的。
If your legal team wants to check it out, whether you're a law firm or you're in house at a company, you can learn more at legora.com/acquired and just tell them that Ben and David sent you.
好的。
Alright.
我们进入下一个环节吧。
Let's move on to our next section.
这让你想到了哪些科技主题？
What tech themes does this illustrate for you?
这个真的很有意思。
This is a really interesting one.
我在这里纠结了很多想法。
I I debated a lot of ideas here.
讽刺的是，这其实不是一次科技收购。
It's ironic because this is not a technology acquisition.
但我还是想说说利基市场营销。
But I actually I I'm gonna go with niche marketing.
而且，尽管我们一直在吐槽这笔交易，维珍航空和阿拉斯加航空在合并前确实在这方面做得很成功。
And, again, even though we've been taking potshots against this deal, both Virgin and Alaska before the merger really succeeded at this.
在竞争激烈的市场里，有很多大型平台玩家和全国性航空公司，他们找到了自己的细分市场。
Like, in a crowded marketplace with lots of big platform players in the big national carriers, they found a niche.
阿拉斯加在西雅图主打商务旅客，维珍在旧金山则注重服务质量和注重风格的客户。
Alaska here in Seattle and with business travelers and Virgin in San Francisco with, you know, sorta quality of service and and sort of style minded customers.
而且他们把这个市场做得非常好。
And they served it really, really well.
并且在此基础上发展出了很大的业务。
And they grew very big businesses out of that.
我的意思是，你知道，合并后，维珍航空的价格是26亿美元。
I mean, you know, combined the, you know, the obviously, the price for Virgin at $2,600,000,000.
我记不清了。
And I can't remember.
阿拉斯加之前的市值是多少？
What was Alaska's market cap before?
哦，是这样的，他们宣布收购后股价反而下跌了。
Oh, it's oh, bef so their stock actually went down on announcing the acquisition.
现在大约是100亿美元。
It's about $10,000,000,000 now.
大约100亿美元。
About $10,000,000,000.
你知道吗？
You know?
这些都是很棒的生意。
These are great businesses.
我觉得同样的道理完全适用于科技领域，尤其是初创公司，它们经常忽略这一点。
And I think that same principle totally applies in technology and and people, especially startups often overlook it.
比如，他们第一天就想跟达美航空、美联航或西南航空竞争。
Like, they try and go after, you know, the Delta or the United or the Southwest on day one.
他们第一天就想跟谷歌竞争。
They try and go after, you know, Google on day one.
你不可能第一天就打败谷歌。
You're not gonna beat Google on day one.
你将来打败谷歌的方式是，先从小众受众开始，一群热爱你的小群体，然后从那里成长起来。
The way you're gonna beat Google down the road is you start with a small audience, a small niche of people who love you passionately, and then you grow from there.
然后你就能一个一个地击倒下一个保龄球瓶，就像《跨越鸿沟》里说的那样。
And then you knock, you know, then you can knock down, you know, in Crossing the Chasm's Peak, the next bowling pin and the next bowling pin and the next bowling pin.
这在科技行业比在航空业容易得多。
And that's much easier to do in technology than it is in airlines.
但好的一点是，你可能不会成为下一个Facebook或Google。
But the great thing about it is that, you know, you're probably not gonna become the next Facebook or Google.
但如果你沿途击倒几个保龄球瓶，你仍然会成为一个非常优秀且有价值的公司。
But if you knock down a couple bowling pins along the way, you're still gonna become a really great and valuable company.
然后也许你有机会把它们全部击倒，你就会成为下一个Snapchat，然后成为下一个Facebook。
And then maybe you get a chance to knock them all down and you will become the next, you know, you will be Snapchat and become the next Facebook.
我就说到这里。
Calling it here.
没错。
There you go.
这个观点很好。
That's a good point.
这个类比是否也适用于航空业的品牌忠诚度方面？
Does that analogy also kind of apply to the the brand loyalty aspect of airlines?
他们在这方面可是有巨大的创新，是的。
Which they've, you know, huge innovation Yeah.
发明了忠诚度计划。
Invented loyalty.
发明了忠诚度、航空里程和会员等级这些东西。
Inventing, you know, the the loyalty and the airline miles and status.
所以你在推测他们……
So you're postulating that they're
为了利用这些科技公司，它们可能还不够多，但已经采用了那种忠诚度模式，就像我越用某个平台，就被锁得越深，因为我在上面积累的航空里程越多，可以这么说。
in order to capitalize on there technology companies that have probably not enough, there should be more, but that have taken that sort of loyalty aspect where, like, the more I use a platform, the deeper I get locked in because the more, you know, airline miles I have on it, for lack of a better word.
完全同意。
I mean, totally.
我觉得过去五十年里，任何在忠诚度方面做得好的公司，都是从航空公司学来的。
I I think that everybody that has has, like, done well at loyalty in the last fifty years has taken it from airlines.
问题是，你需要……
The question is, like, do you need to
OpenTable确实做到了，对。
OpenTable definitely did Yeah.
而且做得相当成功。
Quite successfully.
我在想，是不是有必要……
I get well, I guess I'm wondering, do you need to
这个收购案例以后值得好好聊聊。
That would be a great acquisition to cover at some point.
OpenTable？
Open table?
我们把它加到清单里。
We'll add it to the list.
对，我们……
We, yeah.
我在想，是不是世界变了，现在必须通过整合来维持忠诚度？
I'm trying to think about, like, is it necessary has something changed in the world where it's necessary to consolidate, to keep loyalty?
因为，比如说，现在有没有以前不存在的东西，让人们只想
Because, like, does something exist now that didn't exist before where people only ever want
用一家航空公司？
to use one airline?
或者说，在科技领域肯定是这样。
Or I mean, that's definitely the case in technology.
比如，我想到了幂律和网络效应，就像HipChat那样。
Like, I think about, you know, the power law and the power of network effects like HipChat.
两年前，我们很多投资的公司都在用HipChat，有些用Slack，有些用HipChat。
Like, two years ago, a bunch of our portfolio companies used HipChat, and some of them used Slack and some of them used HipChat.
然后你知道，我跟用HipChat的人聊过，他们说，真该试试Slack。
And they're you know, I talked to people using HipChat and they're like, should really check out Slack.
然后他们会说，你知道，我们用HipChat。
And they'd be like, you know, we use HipChat.
够用了。
It's good enough.
但后来，随着他们在其他公司的朋友开始用Slack，然后各种行业群之类的Slack频道也开始冒出来。
But then, like, as their friends at other companies got on Slack and then Slack channels started popping up for, you you know, industry groups and whatnot.
然后大家就觉得，嗯，我们真该考虑搬到Slack上去了。
And then it was like, well, we should really think about moving to Slack.
然后，这个幂律效应就起作用了，即使Slack做了很多很棒的产品创新，但就算他们没做，你也会被推着从HipChat搬过去，因为全世界都在用。
And, like, then, you know, this power law takes over and being on even if, you know, I think Slack has done a lot of great product innovations, but even if they hadn't, you would be pushed to move towards it even if you're on HipChat because the rest of the world is on it.
而且我觉得Slack的网络效应是因为人们开始建立跨公司的Slack群。
And with Slack, I think that the, like, network effect was because people were starting intercompany Slacks.
所以你就会遇到这种情况，比如，我加入了一个Slack群，是社交性质的或者行业性质的。
So you would end up with, like, oh, I'm in this Slack that's, like, a social thing or an industry thing.
然后你就会想，我可不想同时用两个不同的应用。
And then it was, like, I'm not gonna keep using two separate applications.
所以，这种情况是不是也适用在这里，比如，我可不想在两个不同的积分计划里都攒积分。
So, like, does that apply here where, oh, I'm not gonna maintain points at two separate loyalty programs?
因为那一直都很烦人。
Because that was always super annoying.
我的意思是，我之前试过几家初创公司，它们想帮我整合我的忠诚度计划，或者至少帮我记录一下。
I I mean, I there was a few startups that I was trying out that were trying to aggregate my loyalty programs for me or at least help me keep track.
那真是挺麻烦的。
That was that was a, kind of total pain.
哦，不过从聚合器转到另一个技术趋势，让我想想这个逻辑是不是也说得通。
Oh, but to to segue off of aggregator onto another technology trend, let's see if this let let me think through this and see if this logic kinda follows.
所以，像Kayak、Hipmunk这些网站，还有那些旅游聚合器，比如Priceline之类的，都冒出来了。
So, sites like Kayak and Hipmunk and all these, you know, travel loss and price line, travel aggregators pop up.
对。
Yep.
那是十五、二十年前的事了。
And that's fifteen, twenty years ago.
这实际上让航空公司变得商品化，压缩了它们的利润空间，因为人们对那些航空公司的忠诚度动摇了，因为他们很容易就能找到更便宜的价格。
And that effectively commoditizes airlines and compresses their margins because people's loyalty people's loyalty to those airlines is shaken because they have an easy way to find cheaper prices.
关于价格和……
To price and and
所以这样一来，航空公司被商品化得更厉害，利润就被压低了。
And so therefore, margins are driven down because airlines get more commoditized.
当它们被商品化得更厉害、利润空间更小的时候——虽然之前利润也不多——它们就需要合并，来降低后台成本，利用规模经济。
And when they're more commoditized and there's less profit to be had, even though they weren't making a lot of profit before, they need to consolidate to create a cheaper back office to, you know, take advantage of economies of scale.
现在如果你是家小航空公司，运营规模小带来的低效率可能会让你撑不下去。
And now if you're a smaller airline, the inefficiencies from you having a smaller operation could kill you.
所以如果你一路追溯到在线旅游聚合平台，是不是那种环境就催生了这场收购竞价战，好让你成为更主要的玩家，对吧？
And so if you follow it all the way back to the the online travel aggregators, does does that sort of create the environment in which you need to have a bidding war for this acquisition so that you can be a more major player in a Yeah.
在目标市场里？
Targeted market?
有意思。
It's interesting.
感觉有点不一样，因为这个行业还没有完全数字化，但这让我想起本·汤普森的聚合理论。
It feels a little bit it's different because it hasn't fully become a digitized industry, but it's reminiscent of Ben Thompson's aggregation theory.
他认为，在数字化的二十一世纪，也就是互联网之后的世界，聚合消费者端和体验才是价值所在。
Where where aggregating the consumer endpoint and experience, he argues, in, you know, the the digital twenty first century, you know, post Internet world is where all the value is.
然后你可以把那些困难的内容创作都聚合在背后。
And then you can aggregate all the all the difficult, you know, content creation, behind that, content creation.
但在这个案例中，航空公司，比如点对点旅行，嗯。
But in this case, you know, airlines, like point to point travel Mhmm.
在前端拥有与客户的关系，然后在后端把一切都商品化，这已经完全实现了。
And and own that relationship with the customer at the front end, and then you commoditize everything on the back end, and that's completely happened.
有趣的是，西南航空一直拒绝参与，不让聚合器聚合他们。
And and interesting, Southwest, you know, has refused to, participate in the Let themselves aggregators be aggregated.
不让自己被聚合，而且他们可能拥有最忠诚的客户群。
To let themselves be aggregated and and probably has some of the most, you know, loyal customers.
你知道，他们的股票代码是LUV，就是爱。
You know, I mean, ticker symbol is love, l u v.
他们总是谈论西南航空的员工之间多么相亲相爱。
And they always talk about how much, you know, everybody loves each other at Southwest.
他们一直在积极抵制，而且在品牌建设方面可能也是最成功的。
They've fought that actively, and and they've probably had the most success on the branding front.
我们是不是该进入总结环节了？
Why don't we move on to rendering our conclusions?
我觉得是时候了。
I think that's I think it's that time.
我觉得我们其实在整个讨论过程中已经穿插着表达了不少看法。
And I think we, you know, we've our kind of expressed our our opinions laced in a bunch of comments throughout this.
对我来说，我觉得这个价值被抬高了，一方面是因为竞购战，另一方面是因为他们买的东西本身品牌价值已经算进了市值，但他们不一定会去利用这个品牌，实际上他们已经宣布不会去利用。
For me, you know, I think the value is inflated both by the bidding war and by the fact that they bought something that had brand built into the market cap when they're not necessarily gonna leverage, and in fact have announced they're not gonna leverage that brand.
但我觉得他们不得不这么做，而且我觉得他们当时也没什么别的选择。我觉得他们两家都选对了时机，正好赶上这个收购机会，而且他们通过过去五年把财务状况打理得很好，并且非常用心地保持投资级信用评级，让自己处于一个非常有利的位置来完成这笔收购。不过，我可能不是最适合谈这个的人。
But I think they needed to, and I don't think they had a lot of options, and I think they both picked the time right when this this, you know, was an available purchase, and they put themselves in a really good position to make that purchase by, you know, I'm probably the wrong person to talk about this, but by putting their books in a great position over the last five years and being really intentional about having or being an investment grade or having investment grade credit.
而且我觉得捷蓝航空在这方面没有那么重视，其他小航空公司也一样。
And, you know, I think that JetBlue didn't prioritize that as much, and neither did any of the other smaller airlines.
在一个需要整合的环境里，他们让自己具备了整合的能力。
And in a world where they they, you know, need to consolidate, they put themselves in a position where they're able to do so.
所以我会给个B-。
So I'll give it a b minus.
对。
Yep.
我的意思是，至少对我来说，很难把从科技行业带来的那种对整个航空业糟糕经济状况和动态的震惊，与这次收购中实际决策质量分开来看。
I mean, it's hard to it's hard to separate out just at least for me, the sort of coming from the tech industry, this sort of shock at looking at the terrible economics of the airline industry as a whole and dynamics versus the actual quality of decision making in this acquisition.
所以我觉得你说的很多我都同意，但我会给更低的分数。
So I think a lot of what you said I agree with, but I'm gonna go lower.
我会给C减，因为你说得对，但他们花了太多钱。
I'm gonna go c minus because what you said is right, but they paid so much money.
他们花了太多钱。
They paid so much money.
我的意思是，我觉得这个信息不是公开的，而且除了参与的高管之外，可能没人知道阿拉斯加最初对维珍的出价是多少。
I mean, I I don't think it's public and I don't know that anybody except the executives involved know what what Alaska's initial bid for Virgin was.
但是，就像，它被抬价了好多次，直到变成，哦，对于你的飞行员不能飞的东西来说，这个价格太高了。
But, like, it got bid up so many times until like, oh, that's a large price for something that your pilots can't fly.
航空公司能做出好的收购吗？
Can an airline make a good purchase?
说得好。
Good point.
有道理。
Good point.
好吧。
Alright.
我们继续讲分拆的部分吧？
Should we move on to the carve out?
这太疯狂了。
So this is wild.
我当时差点笑出来，下巴都掉了，我觉得这差点打断了大卫的思路，他之前开始说这不是他的分拆，而是一篇论文，作者是迈克尔，是叫Mamboot Mauboussin吗？
Like, I I was, like, stopping myself from laughing and my jaw dropped, I think it almost ruined David's train of thought earlier when he started talking about how it wasn't gonna be his carve out, but it was a paper that, Michael is it Mamboot Mauboussin?
Mauboussin。
Mauboussin.
Mauboussin。
Mauboussin.
迈克尔·莫布森写过关于这个的文章。
That Michael Mauboussin wrote about this.
我选的是迈克尔·莫布森在谷歌做的一个演讲。
I picked my carve out as a Michael Malbison talk that he gave at Google.
哦，这个太棒了。
Oh, this is so good.
大家都应该看看这个演讲。
Everybody should watch this talk.
真的非常好。
It's really good.
大卫，这太巧了。
This David, this is so weird.
我大概两年没看这个了。
I haven't watched this in probably two years.
而且我经常推荐给朋友。
And it was something that I've recommended to friends very often.
所以录节目前我坐在这儿想，这周好像没什么特别想推荐的东西，但不如来个经典老番？
And so I was sitting here before the episode thinking, you know, I didn't see anything particularly interesting this week that I wanted to recommend, but how about an oldie but goodie?
而且真的特别不可思议，
And it is absolutely wild that
这个演讲太棒了。
This talk is great.
而且它基于一本书，那本书我也读过，也很值得一读，叫《解开运气与技能》。
And it's it's based on a book that I've I've read the book too, which is worth reading too, called Untangling Luck and Skill.
对。
Yep.
对。
Yep.
《解开技能与运气，成功方程式》。
Untangling Skill and Luck, The Success Equation.
真的非常非常吸引人。
And it is so, so fascinating.
他举了很多很棒的例子，让你既能逻辑上跟得上，也会点头赞同，同时又会有点害怕，因为你会意识到自己的成功有多少其实不在自己掌控之中，或者说这个世界有多少是我们控制不了的。
He gives so many great examples that will make you both, like, follow it logically and nod your head, and sorta scared that about how much of your own success has been out of your control, or how much the world is out of our control.
所以你的成功有多少不能归功于你自己，你的失败又有多少不能归咎于你自己，然后试着弄清楚哪些事情是你归因于自己的能力的。
So how much of your own success cannot be attributed to you, and how much of your own failure cannot be attributed to you, and trying to figure out what are things that you have Attributed to your own skill.
对。
Yes.
对。
Yes.
还有哪些事情是你真正应该关注的，哪些事情你应该知道世界上总会有随机性存在。
And and what are things that, you know, you actually should be focusing on, and what are things that you should know that there's gonna be randomness in the world?
如果你只有一个小时，那就听这个演讲。
It's this the the talk if you only have an hour, listen to the talk.
如果你想深入探讨这个话题，那就去看这本书。
If you really wanna go deep on this, get the book.
真的非常好。
It's so good.
我会克制一下自己。
I I will restrain myself.
我可以往很多方向展开。
I could go in so many directions.
但我想快速提一个小故事，这是这次演讲和书里我最喜欢的主题之一，就是“技能悖论”。这个概念特别酷，就是在一个活动中，整个演讲和书的核心理念是，任何活动的结果，一部分取决于参与者的技能，一部分取决于运气。
But one one real quick vignette I wanna throw out is one of my favorite themes from this talk and book is, the paradox of skill, which is such a cool thing that, like, in a a given activity the whole the whole premise of the talk in the book is that any activity, the results of which are are gonna be based somewhat on the skill of the participants in the activity and somewhat on luck.
而且这中间有个谱系，有些活动更偏向运气，有些更偏向技能。
And and there's a spectrum and some things go more towards the luck end and some towards the skill end.
技能悖论说的是，即使是在高度依赖技能的活动里，随着竞技水平越来越高——比如马尔维森举的例子是篮球——
The paradox of skill is that even in things that are highly skill based, as the level of play gets higher so imagine the the example Malvison uses is basketball.
篮球虽然非常依赖技能，但随着竞技水平越来越高，球员之间的技能差距越来越小，那么运气在结果中起的作用就越来越大，尽管这还是一个靠技能的游戏。
As basketball, which is very skill based, as the level of play gets higher and higher and the parity of skill amongst the players gets more and more, uniform, then luck plays an increasing amount role in the outcome even though it's a skill based game.
特别是因为全球化，因为只有世界上最好的选手才会被考虑进来。
Particularly due to globalization because the only people who are even considered for this are the best in the world.
所以，在那些都是顶尖、技能水平看起来差不多的选手当中，
So then it's it's like, well, among the people that are all the best that look very similar to each other in skill level
技能上的差异变得非常微小。
The variation in skill gets so minute.
运气就被放大了。
That luck is magnified.
运气被放大了。
The luck is magnified.
确实。
Super.
同样的道理也适用于投资、创业，以及很多其他领域。
And the exact same dynamic holds true in investing, in startups, in in lots of things.
当整个世界都是人才池的时候，你看到的都是顶尖中的顶尖，然后接下来就是各种疯狂的动态在发挥作用。
When when the world is the pool, you always have the cream of the crop, and then it's it's all about all the crazy dynamics that play out from there.
所以强烈推荐。
So can't recommend it enough.
在YouTube上就有。
It's on YouTube.
我们会在节目说明里放上链接。
We'll link it in the show notes.
一定要去看看《成功方程式：解开技能与运气之谜》。
Definitely check out The Success Equation, Untangling the Skill and Luck.
我已经占用了不少时间了。
I I I've taken enough time.
我的分享就留到下次吧。
I'm gonna save mine for another time.
反正也不是特别有意思。
It wasn't wasn't super interesting anyway.
那我更要强烈推荐这本书了。
Well I'm gonna doubly recommend this.
真的非常好。
It's so good.
好的。
Alright.
好了，就是这样。
Well, there you have it.
好的，听众朋友们。
Alright, listeners.
现在是聊聊我们最喜欢的公司之一——Statsig 的好时机。
Now is a great time to talk about one of our favorite companies, Statsig.
是的。
Yes.
最好的产品团队之所以依赖 Statsig，是有原因的，无论他们是在迭代核心产品功能，还是大规模交付 AI 驱动的体验。
There is a reason why the best product teams rely on Statsig, whether they are iterating on their core product features or shipping AI powered experiences at scale.
对。
Yep.
在当今 AI 世界的高速发展下，快速交付只是基本要求。
In the crazy speed of today's AI world, shipping fast is just table stakes now.
持续构建和部署你的应用基本上是小菜一碟。
It's basically trivial to build and deploy your app constantly.
真正的优势在于，你能多快了解到哪些改动真正为客户创造了价值，以及你能多快利用这些信号来指导下一步的发布。
The real advantage is how quickly you learn what changes actually created value for customers, and how fast you can use that signal to guide what you ship next.
这就是Statsig发挥作用的地方。
This is where Statsig comes in.
它将实验、功能开关和产品分析整合到一个统一的系统中，让团队能够安全发布、严格测试，并直接将他们的改动与用户的实际行为联系起来。
It brings experimentation, feature flags, and product analytics into one unified system so teams can ship safely, test rigorously, and directly link what they changed to how users actually behaved.
所以，如果你想让学习成为你的竞争优势，无论你是在构建新的人工智能体验，还是仅仅在优化你现有的核心产品，都可以访问statsig.com/acquired开始使用。
So if you wanna make learning your competitive advantage, whether you're building new AI experiences or just evolving your existing core product, go to statsig.com/acquired to get started.
感谢大家今天的收听。
Thanks for listening today.
再次强调，如果，如果你有时间，请，请，请务必在iTunes上给我们留下评论。
Again, if, if you have the time, please, please, please leave us a review on iTunes.
怎么强调都不为过，这对节目的成功非常重要，而且我们很喜欢你们的反馈。
Can't, can't say enough how much it's it's, important to the success of the show, and, we love your feedback.
所以
So
如果你以后想通过邮件接收节目，就去acquired.fm注册一下，我们也会开始通过邮件更新发布节目，如果你更喜欢那个渠道的话。
And and if you want to receive episodes by email going forward, just sign up on acquired.fm, and we will, we're also now gonna start publishing the show, by email updates as well if you prefer that channel.
没错。
It's true.
你也可以在网站上给我们反馈，或者发邮件到AcquiredFM@Gmail.com。
And you can give us feedback on the website or AcquiredFM@Gmail.com.
大家再见。
See you later, everyone.
谁说的是真的？
Who got the truth?
是你吗？
Is it you?
是你吗？
Is it you?
是你吗？
Is it you?
现在谁掌握真相了？
Who got the truth now?
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