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这里是iHeart播客《真人认证》。
This is an iHeart podcast, Guaranteed Human.
嘿，你好。
Hey there.
我是迈克尔·刘易斯。
It's Michael Lewis.
你知道吗？你可以在Amazon Music上收听《Against the Rules》播客中的《大空头》配套系列，与你喜爱的其他播客一起。
Did you know that you can listen to the Big Short companion series on the Against the Rules podcast on Amazon Music along with your other favorite podcasts.
要开始收听，只需下载Amazon Music应用，搜索《Against the Rules》，点击关注以获取新剧集。
To start listening, just download the Amazon Music app, search for Against the Rules, and click follow to keep up with new episodes.
你也可以问问Alexa。
You could also ask Alexa.
Alexa，在Amazon Music上播放《Against the Rules》。
Alexa, play against the rules on Amazon Music.
Amazon Music Unlimited会员现在还可享受Audible服务，你还可以在应用中收听《大空头》的有声书。
For Amazon Music Unlimited members, Audible is now included in your membership, and you can also listen to Big Short audiobook in the app.
这样你就能在一个地方收听播客、有声书和音乐了。
So you have your podcasts, your audiobooks, and your music all in one place.
Pushkin。
Pushkin.
我是迈克尔·刘易斯。
I'm Michael Lewis.
我是莉迪亚·让·科特。
And I'm Lydia Jean Cott.
我们即将完成《大空头》的配套系列节目《Against the Rules》。
And we're wrapping up our Big Short companion series on Against the Rules.
我们一直在探讨二月的起源及其影响。
We've been hearing about the origins and consequences of the February.
今天，我们将讨论它如何改变了政治格局。
And today, we're gonna talk about how it changed politics.
是的。
Yes.
2011年时，我其实还在纽约上大学。
In 2011, I was in college in New York, actually.
我记得当时去上人类学之类的课，
And I remember showing up, I think, to, like, Anthro or something.
结果教室里空了一半，因为大家都去华尔街抗议了。
And half the class was empty because people had gone to protest on Wall Street.
占领华尔街运动。
Occupy Wall Street.
那天。
Day.
整个星期。
All week.
占领华尔街。
Occupy Wall Street.
你当时有没有一点心动想去？
Were you at all kind of tempted?
可惜我当时太宅了，完全不知道大家都在参与这件事。
I was unfortunately too much of a loser to know that this was, like, what people were doing.
所以我就没去。
So I didn't go.
现在是你弥补的机会了。
And here's your chance to make up for it.
为什么？
Why?
你觉得呢，为什么人们会如此愤怒？
Why do you think you know, why were people so angry?
他们有理由愤怒。
They were right to be angry.
他们确实愤怒，但愤怒的原因各不相同。
They were angry for but they were angry for different reasons.
我认为愤怒的核心在于这种不公感，我们隐约感觉到世界被操纵了，而现在我们确信确实如此。
I think the gist of the anger was this sense of unfairness, this feeling that we sort of sensed that the world was rigged and now we know it's rigged.
这个体系被金融和政治领域的精英们操控着，那些所谓的精英和最享有特权的人可以避开资本主义的残酷面。
And it's rigged on behalf of elites in finance and politics, people in finance and politics, that the people who are the supposed best and brightest and certainly the most privileged get to take a pass on the harsh side of capitalism.
其他人一旦失败，就真的失败了。
Everybody else, when they fail, they fail.
他们会破产。
They go out of business.
他们不得不宣布破产。
They have to declare bankruptcy.
他们会做出违法的事。
They do things that are illegal.
他们会进监狱。
They go to jail.
但那些身处社会顶层、拿着史上最高薪酬的人，却能用他们的金融把戏搞垮整个社会。
But people who are sitting at the top of the society being paid more than people at the top of the society have ever been paid screw up the entire society with their financial shenanigans.
没有人进监狱，他们照样拿奖金，他们的银行被救市，尽管这些银行本该倒闭。
And nobody goes to jail, and they get their bonuses still, and their banks are saved, even though they should have failed.
这引发了合理的愤怒，因为规则对顶层人士并不适用。
So it gave rise to a justifiable outrage that the rules did not apply to the people at the very top.
而这种愤怒至今仍与我们同在。
And that outrage is still with us.
当我思考当下的美国政治时，首先涌上心头的是愤怒。
When I think about American politics right now, the first thing that pops into my body is anger.
就像特朗普现象，特朗普正在贩卖愤怒。
It's like the Trump phenomenon, Trump is, he is selling anger.
他在兜售不满情绪。
He's selling grievance.
这就是为什么他每天都需要一个新的目标来引导愤怒。
It's why every day he has to have another target to direct the anger.
他引导人们的愤怒，并让人们因愤怒而感到痛快。
He's directing people's anger and he's making people feel good about being angry.
而作为美国政治生活核心特质的愤怒，正是从这场金融危机开始蔓延的。
And the anger as the chief quality in American political life that starts here with the financial crisis.
所以在今天的节目中，我们将与两位对金融危机采取了截然不同教训或应对方式的人进行对话。
So on today's episode, we're gonna talk to two people who took very different, like, lessons or approaches to the financial crisis.
第一位是马萨诸塞州参议员伊丽莎白·沃伦。
The first is Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren.
伊丽莎白·沃伦非常明智地长期主张，美国中产阶级与高端金融之间这条不神圣的边界需要被监管。
Elizabeth Warren, very smartly, had been arguing for a long time that this border, this unholy border between the American middle class and high finance needed to be patrolled.
如果让金融机构在没有监管的情况下接触普通美国人，它们有能力对他们做出许多恶劣的事情。
That if you let financial institutions at ordinary Americans without anybody watching them, they're capable of doing lots of bad things to them.
当涉及金钱时，剥削一个普通人竟然如此容易，这实在令人震惊。
It is amazing how easy it is to prey upon an ordinary person when the subject is money.
哦，是啊。
Oh, yeah.
人们在纠结是否偿还信用卡债务时，往往无法保持最佳状态。
People are not their best selves when they're trying to figure out whether to repay their credit card debt.
而金融危机成为了她创建消费者金融保护局的催化剂。
And the financial crisis was a catalyst for her ability to create the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.
我是说，她似乎因此得到了她想要的。
I mean, she seemed to get what she wanted as a result.
当然，她自己的政治生涯也借此腾飞了。
And her, of course, own political career took off on the back of it.
我们要谈的第二个人，你知道，金融危机对他来说也是个催化剂，他就是前白宫顾问史蒂夫·班农。
And the second person we're gonna talk to, you know, the financial crisis was also a catalyst for him, the former White House adviser, Steve Bannon.
是的。
Yes.
这是个离奇曲折的故事。
This is a strange and convoluted tale.
我直到最近才知道这件事。
I didn't know this until fairly recently.
但我关于华尔街的第一本书叫《说谎者的扑克》。
But my first book about Wall Street was called Liar's Poker.
那本书写的是我自己在华尔街工作的经历。
It was about my own experience working on Wall Street.
如果我没有写《说谎者的扑克牌》，就不会有《大空头》这本书。
I don't write The Big Short if I don't write Liar's Poker.
我把《大空头》视为《说谎者的扑克牌》的续篇，我在1989年描述的那个世界终于在2008年崩塌了。
I thought of The Big Short as kind of the bookend to Liar's Poker, That the world that I was describing back in 1989 had finally come crashing down in 2008.
尽管我从未预料到，但《说谎者的扑克牌》的字里行间其实已经预示了这场崩溃的原因。
And for reasons that you sort of could see in the pages of Liar's Poker, though I never would have predicted it.
史蒂夫·班农在《说谎者的扑克牌》出版时正在好莱坞，他对这本书着了迷，联合一群人买下了电影改编权，在华纳兄弟立项，甚至亲自为《说谎者的扑克牌》电影撰写了剧本。
Steve Bannon, as it turns out, was in Hollywood when Liar's Poker came out, became obsessed with the book, bought the movie rights to the book with a group of people, set it up at Warner Brothers, and was so involved that he went and wrote his own script of the Liars Poker movie.
他把剧本发给你了吗？
Has he sent you the script?
我还没看过，但我一定要找来看看——天啊，这简直就是一件文物，对吧？
I haven't seen it yet, but I am going to make a point to see it because God, just what an artifact, right?
我得从他手里买下它。
I had to buy it off him.
我在特朗普时期采访过班农，很明显虽然他可能一直是个情绪多变的人，但金融危机确实让他变得极度亢奋且政治立场激化。
But Bannon, I interviewed him during Trump and it was really clear that although he was probably always a pretty volatile person, that he really became hyper charged and politicized because of the financial crisis.
我认为他和伊丽莎白·沃伦并非对立面。
I think he and Elizabeth Warren are not opposites.
显然，他们的政治生涯截然不同。
Obviously, their political lives are very different.
我觉得我们应该做一期关于这一事件政治影响的节目，没有比他们两位更合适的嘉宾了。
I thought we got to do an episode about the political consequences of this event and who better to do it with than these two.
广告之后，我们将请到两位彼此厌恶、可能永远不愿同处一室的人物——伊丽莎白·沃伦和史蒂夫·班农。
After the break, we're gonna bring together two people who would hate being in the same room together and probably never will be, Elizabeth Warren and Steve Vannon.
没错。
Yeah.
我们开始吧。
Let's do this.
你好啊。
Hey there.
我是迈克尔·刘易斯。
It's Michael Lewis.
你知道吗？你可以在Amazon Music上收听《大空头》的配套系列节目《Against the Rules》，与你喜欢的其他播客一起。
Did you know that you can listen to the Big Short companion series on the Against the Rules podcast on Amazon Music along with your other favorite podcasts.
要开始收听，只需下载Amazon Music应用，搜索《Against the Rules》，然后点击关注以获取新剧集。
To start listening, just download the Amazon Music app, search for Against the Rules, and click follow to keep up with new episodes.
你也可以问问Alexa。
You could also ask Alexa.
Alexa，在Amazon Music上播放《Against the Rules》。
Alexa, play against the rules on Amazon Music.
Amazon Music Unlimited会员现在还可享受Audible服务，你可以在应用中收听《大空头》的有声书。
For Amazon Music Unlimited members, Audible is now included in your membership, and you can also listen to Big Short audiobook in the app.
这样，你的播客、有声书和音乐就都集中在一个地方了。
So you have your podcasts, your audiobooks, and your music all in one place.
要知道，2008年发生了太多疯狂的事情，我们几乎忘了那还是个总统大选年，正是那次选举将巴拉克·奥巴马送进了白宫。
You know, so much craziness was happening in 2008 that we can almost forget that it was a presidential election year, and that was the election that sent Barack Obama to the White House.
随后几年里，还有一些人因此进入华盛顿政坛，包括我即将对话的这位——马萨诸塞州参议员伊丽莎白·沃伦。
It sent a few other folks to Washington in the years following, including the person I'm about to chat with, Massachusetts senator Elizabeth Warren.
可以说，没有哪位政治家——即便是奥巴马——像她那样因金融危机而如此直接地跃入政治生涯。
I think it's fair to say that no politician, even Obama, was catapulted by the financial crisis into political life more directly than she was.
迈克尔。
Michael.
沃伦参议员，您好吗？
Senator Warren, how are you?
伊丽莎白，我很好。
Elizabeth, I'm fine.
你
How
好吗？
are you?
我觉得我不能
I don't feel like I can
直接进入那个话题。
just go there right away.
我想，从你个人经历开始聊起。
I wanna, like, start with you personally.
你是什么时候意识到金融危机爆发，并且这可能对你产生影响的？
When do you become aware that there is a financial crisis and that this might have some effect on you?
嗯，我其实在90年代末就意识到金融危机了。
Well, I become aware there's a financial crisis actually in the late nineties.
你能看到它正在酝酿。
You can see it brewing.
嗯。
Mhmm.
因为我是一名研究美国中产阶级现状的教授。
Because I'm a professor who studies what's happening to America's middle class.
我们开始在我研究的住房抵押贷款、信用卡数据中看到一些异常波动，美国人的处境似乎正变得更加危险。
And we're starting to see these funny little blips in the data that I was digging in on about home mortgages, credit cards, and it looks like things are getting dicier for Americans.
别忘了，迈克尔，我教破产法的。
And remember, Michael, I teach bankruptcy.
因此，我关注着那些在美国这场重大经济博弈中自认失败的家庭——那些深陷债务泥潭的人们，他们来到破产法庭寻求帮助，希望能抹去部分债务，重新回到一贫如洗的起点。
So I'm watching the families who are declaring themselves losers in America's great economic game that that the people who are head over heels in debt and show up at the bankruptcy court to say, help me wipe out some of my debts and make it back to dead flat broke.
你是从另一个视角来阐述的，嗯。
You're saying from a different perspective Yeah.
与我书中某些角色所见略同。
Of what some of the characters in my book saw.
那些参与次级贷款或观察次级贷款机构的人，早已察觉到这个不断发酵的问题。
That people who had been involved in subprime lending or watching the subprime lenders could see that there was this building problem.
是的。
Yeah.
请为我将金融危机与你的政治生涯联系起来。
Connect the financial crisis for me up to your political career.
比如，它是如何影响你的事业发展的？
Like, how does it inflame your career?
所以我明白了。
So I understand.
我唯一想做的就是当一名教师。
All I've ever wanted to be was a teacher.
我最初是一名公立学校的教师。
I started out as a public school teacher.
后来我去了法学院。
I end up going to law school.
从法学院毕业后，我出来教书。
When I go to law school, I come out and I teach.
这才是我热爱的事业。
That's what I love doing.
比起世上任何事物，我都更爱站在讲台上的感觉。
I love the classroom better than anything on God's green earth.
因此，当我目睹危机逐渐酝酿时，我对这些家庭的遭遇深感忧虑。
So I, though, am so worried about what's happening to families as I'm watching the buildup to the crisis.
时间来到2002年。
So now it's 2002.
现在是2003年。
It's 2003.
现在是2004年。
It's 2004.
现在是2005年。
It's 2005.
而华盛顿唯一的回应就是让人们更难申请破产。
And the only response in Washington is to make it harder for people to declare bankruptcy.
这简直疯了。
This is just nuts.
对吧？
Right?
你可以看到问题正在累积，越来越多的人被欺骗、被算计、陷入困境。
You can see that the problems are building, that more and more people are getting cheated, tricked, trapped.
于是我最终写了这篇文章，我感到非常沮丧，因为我指出在美国你买不到有五分之一概率会突然起火并烧毁你房子的烤面包机，但此时此刻在美国，却有银行家在推销有五分之一概率会让家庭失去房屋的住房贷款，而且没人阻止他们，他们甚至不需要警告你。
And so I end up writing this piece in which I'm I'm so frustrated because I point out that nowhere in America could you buy a toaster that had a one in five chance of bursting into flames and burning down your house, but that right now in America, there were bankers selling home mortgages that had a one in five chance of costing the family their home, and there was nobody to stop them, and they didn't even have to warn you.
于是我把这篇文章发表出来，在这场对抗人为制造的风暴的斗争中越陷越深。
So I I put this out, and I keep getting deeper and deeper in the fight against what feels like a storm that is man made.
这场风暴是由这些巨型机构和金融天才们制造的——至少他们是这么自我标榜的——那些掌控着权力杠杆的人。
It is made by these giant institutions and these financial geniuses, at least that's how they describe themselves, you know, who have their hands on the levers.
他们简直就是在祸害全美各地的家庭。
It's like they're just fucking up families across America.
就像一台巨型割草机，从财务上将他们碾得粉碎，然后吐出残骸。
Like, they're it's some giant mower and then just chopping them up financially and spitting out the bones.
所以你越来越愤怒了。
So you're getting angrier.
天啊。
Oh, man.
是的。
Yes.
我注视着
I'm watch
我感觉
I feel
就像在实时目睹这一切。
like I'm watching it in real time.
是的。
Yes.
好吧。
Alright.
所以你越来越愤怒。
So so you're getting angrier.
哦，我也越来越愤怒。
Oh, I'm getting angrier.
现在，把它和你的政治生涯联系起来给我讲讲。
Now now connect it to your political career for me.
好的。
Okay.
于是2008年的经济危机爆发了。
So then the crash of two thousand eight hits.
突然间，时间来到了2008年9月。
All of a sudden now, we're in September 2008.
市场正在崩盘。
The markets are falling.
哦，现在市场下跌了，这值得关注了。
And, oh, now that the markets are falling, this is worth paying attention to.
对吧？
Right?
一切都在崩塌。
It's all tumbling.
国会正被要求救助银行和其他所有人。
Congress is being called on to bail out the banks and everyone else.
我还在家里继续我的工作。
I'm at home still doing my work.
我简直气疯了。
I'm I'm madder than hell.
有天晚上我接到一个电话，一个非常柔和的声音说，我是哈里·里德。
And I get a phone call one night, and this very soft voice says, this is Harry Reid.
我说，谁？
And I said, who?
我当时和国会完全没联系。
I was so not tied in to Congress.
我根本不知道他是参议院多数党领袖。
I do not realize that he is the senate majority leader.
你连这个都不知道？
You didn't even know that?
不知道。
Nope.
我是说
I mean
我是说，我想如果我在具体情境中看到它的话。
I mean, I guess I maybe if I'd seen it in context.
他说，我们得实施这次纾困计划。
And he said, we're gonna have to do this bailout.
他说，我们需要一个监督小组，我希望由你来负责。
And he said, we need an oversight panel, and I want it to be you.
我说，什么？
And I said, what?
这就像在战争中途接到一个电话。
It was like getting a call in the middle of a war.
市场正处于动荡之中。
The markets are in turmoil.
人们真的在怀疑我们的经济是否会倒退到石器时代。
People are literally wondering if our economy is just gonna be go back to the stone age.
对吧？
Right?
如果一切都要崩溃了。
If everything is gonna collapse.
而这个电话就像是说，国家需要你。
And this call is like, your country needs you.
然后我说，你想让我做什么？
And I said, what do you want me to do?
他说，我要你领导这个国会监督小组。
And he said, I want you to lead this congressional oversight panel.
我完全不知道这是什么。
I had no idea what this thing was.
我说，好吧，让我看看。
And I said, well, let me look.
他说，不行。
And he said, no.
我需要一个答复。
I need an answer.
我说，而且，坦白说，如果我发现拖地板能帮上忙，我就会去拖地板。
And I said, And and, frankly, if I found out that somehow mopping the floors was gonna help, I would go mop the floors.
顺便说一句，那个电话真的打来了。
The call happens, by the way.
当时我正邀请一群学生来吃晚餐，送烧烤的人就在前门，我正试图付款。
I'm having a bunch of students over for dinner, and the guy who's delivering the barbecue, is at the front door, and I'm trying to pay for it.
同时我还在电话里和这位说话轻声细语的哈里·里德交谈，他正要求我做这件事。
And I'm trying to talk to this guy named Harry Reid on the phone who talks softly, and he's asking me to do this thing.
而我们家的金毛犬因为闻到烧烤味，正绕着我腿边转圈跑。
And our golden retriever is, like, racing circles around my legs because of the barbecue.
这就是我如何得到第一份政治工作的经过。
So that's how I end up in my first political job.
我只是说了声‘好’。
I just say yes.
所以那天晚上，我告诉出差在外的丈夫这件事。
So later that night, my husband, who's out of town, I'm telling him about it.
我说，哦，是的。
I said, oh, yeah.
我说我早些时候得到了这个目标。
I said I got this goal earlier.
而且，哈里·里德想让我负责国会的一些监督工作。
And, Harry Reid wants me to head up some oversight thing for congress.
我丈夫说，好吧。
And my husband said, okay.
这个职位是做什么的？
What does it do?
我说，我不知道。
And I said, I don't know.
我在想该怎么弄清楚。
I wonder how I could find out.
于是我查了一下，发现妥协方案的一部分是。
So I look it up and find out part of the compromise is.
他们将成立一个监督小组，民主党将任命三人，共和党任命两人。
They will have an oversight panel, and the Democrats will appoint three people the Republicans will appoint two.
而我就是哈里·里德任命的成员。
And I'm Harry Reid's appointee.
这个小组具体负责什么工作？
And what's this panel supposed to do?
我们的职责是监督7000亿美元的救助计划，这确实是我在华盛顿接手的第一项任务。
We're supposed to oversee the $700,000,000,000 bailout, And that is literally the first thing I ever do in Washington.
我负责组建这个小组。
I pull this panel together.
然后呢。
And look.
我猜很多人当时都觉得，这不过是遮羞布，走个监督的过场罢了。
I am guessing a lot of people thought, man, fig leaves, that there'll be some oversight.
但银行会拿到那7000亿，一切都会安然无恙。
But the banks are getting their 700,000,000,000, and the world is all gonna work just fine.
但我当时天真地以为有人真的重视监管这件事。
But I was naive enough to think somebody was serious about the oversight.
于是我们每30天发布一份报告，说明谁拿到了钱、资金如何使用、授权依据是什么，以及是否用于帮助那些陷入可怕抵押贷款和其他金融产品困境的人们。
So we put out a report every 30 days about who was getting the money, how it was being spent, what the authorization was for it, and whether it was flowing down to help people who were in trouble on these horrible mortgages and, other financial products.
就这样我们让这个机制运转起来，当时奥巴马已成为总统，大家都意识到法律即将有所改变。
So so we get this thing up and running, and Obama is now president, and everybody realizes there's going to be a change in the law.
这个改变就是我们现在所说的《多德-弗兰克法案》。
And that change is what we now refer to as the Dodd Frank law.
那时候我们只是觉得必须采取些措施。
It back then, we're just we're gonna have to do something.
我们必须重新制定相关法律，因为民众已经愤怒至极了。
We've gotta rewrite the laws coming out of this because people are just mad at hell Yeah.
对所发生的一切。
About what's happened.
所以我们要建立更完善的监管体系。
So we're gonna put better oversight in place.
那时我说，好吧。
And that's when I said, okay.
在我看来，门似乎开了一条缝。
It looks like to me the door has opened just a crack.
我想主张成立一个消费者保护机构，确保我们永远不会再通过抵押贷款、信用卡和其他金融产品欺骗消费者，从而在系统中积累如此大的风险。
I wanna argue for a consumer agency to make sure that never again do we build, this much risk into the system by cheating people on mortgages and credit cards and other financial products.
回想我最初有这个想法时，我会说我们需要这个新机构。
Now back when I had first thought about that, I would say, we need this new agency.
而人们只会翻白眼，那动作大得可能伤到了他们的头骨。
And people would just they would do eyeball rolls that truly must have hurt their skulls.
这对我来说很有趣。
This is it's interesting to me.
你最初是什么时候意识到需要成立一个新机构，而不是让证券交易委员会来做这件事的？
When did you first conceive that it needed to be a new agency as opposed to, oh, the SEC can do this?
大概在金融危机前的一两年。
Maybe a year or two before the crash.
我认为你的见解非常深刻，普通美国人与金融之间存在着一条有害的界限。
I think your insight is profound that there is this border between ordinary Americans and finance that's toxic.
人们在这个话题上很容易被愚弄和欺骗，这会给他们的生活带来灾难性后果。
People are easily fooled on this subject and buffaloed and it and it has disastrous life consequences for people.
这条界限需要被监管。
That border needs to be policed.
但必须成立新机构的这个想法让我感到意外。
But the idea there had to be a new agency, that surprises me.
好的。
Okay.
这样想吧。
So think of it this way.
当所有这些风险在积累时，当人们失去他们倾注心血的房屋时，其实有联邦法律本可以阻止这一切。
While all this risk is building up, while people are losing their homes that they have poured their life blood into, there are laws on the books, federal laws that would have stopped that.
当时是有信息披露法规的。
There were there were disclosure laws.
当时有各种各样的法律，但这些法律分散在七个不同的联邦机构中，而且都不是他们的首要职责。
There were all kinds of laws, but those laws were scattered among seven different federal agencies, and they were nobody's first job.
联邦贸易委员会（FTC）、货币监理署（OCC）、储蓄机构监理局（OTS）和联邦存款保险公司（FDIC），我们能列举完所有字母开头的机构吗？
The FTC and the OCC and the OTS and the FDIC, can we do all the letters of the alphabet?
你知道吗？
You know?
还有美联储，所有这些机构都掌握着部分法律权限。
And the Fed, all of them had parts of the law.
没有人具备真正的专业知识，也没有人愿意分配资源来实际执行这些法律。
Nobody had any real expertise, and nobody would allocate resources to actually enforce those laws.
因此我的观点是，与其制定新法律，不如改变我们执行现有法律的方式。
And so my idea was to say we don't need new laws as much as we need a change in how we enforce those laws.
所以消费者保护机构的核心理念是：从其他反正也不执行这些法律的机构那里整合这些法律。
So the idea behind the consumer agency was you scoop those laws up from the other agencies that weren't using them anyway.
将它们集中到一个机构中。
You put it with one agency.
你为它提供资源。
You give it the resources.
你要求它培养专业能力，然后让它成为街头上高效的执法者。
You tell it to develop the expertise, and then you make it the effective cop on the beat.
这个想法是怎么进入你脑海的？
How does it enter your head?
我正在竞选公职。
I'm running for office.
所以我非常喜欢这个机构。
So I love that agency.
奥巴马总统任命我来筹建它，我们需要招募人员，准备好为美国消费者迅速开展工作。
And president Obama appointed me to come set it up, and we gotta hire up and be ready to hit the ground running on behalf of American consumers.
我在华盛顿花了几个月时间做这件事。
I spend months doing this in Washington.
我热爱这份工作。
I love this work.
我深知这个机构能发挥什么作用。
I understand what this agency can do.
而且，哦，我想成为这个机构的新任主管。
And, oh, I wanna be the new director of the agency.
对吧？
Right?
我只是个临时来筹建的人。
I'm just the temp who's setting it up.
我太想成为这个机构的负责人了。
I so wanna be the head of this agency.
然后共和党人给奥巴马总统发了封信，说你想成立那个机构。
And the Republicans send a letter to president Obama and say, you wanna get that agency set up.
那个女人永远别想通过任命成为机构负责人。
That woman will never be confirmed to be the head of the agency ever.
我们现在就明确告诉你。
We we are telling you right now.
我们会一直阻挠她，直到地狱结冰。
We will block her until hell freezes over.
我不认为他们原话就是这么说的，但大意如此。
I don't think those were their exact line words, but that was it.
这让你感到意外吗？
Did that surprise you?
说实话，确实有点意外。
Actually, it kinda did.
我本来干得很出色。
I was doing a good job.
你知道吗？
You know?
我本可以让这个机构顺利运作起来的。
I was gonna make this agency work.
你没有得罪过什么人吧？
You didn't personally offend anybody?
没有。
No.
没有。
No.
据我所知没有。
Not that I knew of.
不。
Nope.
不。
Nope.
我所做的只是建立它并使其
All I was doing was setting it up and making
在他们心目中。
in their minds.
你就是你
You were you
奥巴马对我说，你不会成为这个机构的负责人。
were So Obama says to me, you're not gonna be the head of the agency.
然后我说，好吧。
And I okay.
我会回去的。
I'll go back.
我，没关系的。
I it's okay.
我热爱教学。
I love teaching.
我要回马萨诸塞州教书。
I'm going back to Massachusetts to teach.
然后奥巴马对我说，不行。
And Obama says to me, no.
回马萨诸塞州去竞选参议员吧。
Go back to Massachusetts and run for the senate.
哦。
Oh.
是的。
Yep.
记得吗，当时马萨诸塞州是由一位共和党人代表的，名叫斯科特·布朗，他将在2012年面临连任选举。
Remember, there is a Republican representing Massachusetts at this point, guy named Scott Brown, and he's coming up for reelection in 2012.
所以现在是2011年。
So here it is, 2011.
去挑战他。
Take him on.
我当时就想，竞选参议员？
And I'm like, run for senate?
我是说，我从没想过要竞选公职，那不是我的...
I mean, I don't that's not my I've never thought about running for office.
但另一方面，如果我不站出来捍卫那个机构，还有谁会去做呢？
On the other hand, who's gonna defend that agency if I don't get in there and do that?
于是我回到马萨诸塞州，接到很多人打来的电话说，参与者们，你应该竞选美国参议员。
So I go back to Massachusetts, and I get a bunch of phone calls from people saying, participants, you should run for The United States Senate.
然后他们说些诸如‘你赢不了，但你应该参选’之类的话。
And then they say things like, you won't win, but you should run.
而我想说，听着，民主党人。
And I wanna say, you know, look, Democrats.
拿出更好的推销说辞吧。
Get a better sales pitch.
没错。
Right.
最终我还是参加了竞选。
So I end up getting in the race.
刚开始时，我落后了大概45个百分点左右。
And, you know, I start out, like, like, 45 points behind or something.
这简直太疯狂了。
I mean, it's it's nuts.
我之前从未参加过公职竞选。
I've never run for office before.
我只是不断站出来，就家庭经济问题、生活成本上涨、遭受欺骗等现象发声，指出这些情况有多么不公正。
I just keep getting there and punching on family economic issues, on costs going up, on getting cheated, and how it's just not right.
你是金融危机的政治产物。
You are a political consequence of the financial crisis.
是的。
Yeah.
我想让你在我们结束前快速说明一下
I want you to just quickly before we have
为什么催生消费者金融保护局的愤怒情绪会演变成对政府的普遍不满，这种情绪让特朗普得以削弱甚至废除该机构。
to wrap, quickly explain to me why the anger that generates the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has sort of metastasized into this anger against government that has enabled Trump to gut it or to disable it.
人们看到2008年银行被救助时，不仅没人因搞垮经济而入狱，见鬼的是那些家伙连工作都没丢。
People saw 2008 as the banks got bailed out that not only did nobody go to jail for having wrecked our economy, hell, those guys didn't even lose their jobs.
他们还拿到了奖金。
They got bonuses.
与此同时，一千万美国人失去了他们的家园。
Meanwhile, 10,000,000 Americans lost their homes.
我认为很多人都明白，生活有时会很艰难，但至少我们都在遵守同一套规则。
And I think a lot of folks understand that, you know, things can be tough, but surely we're all playing by the same set of rules.
而2008年证明，不，我们并没有。
And 2008 proved, no, we're not.
亿万富翁们遵循的是另一套规则。
The rules are different for the billionaires.
也许向来如此，但2008年的金融危机以及对他们网开一面的处理方式，将这种丑陋现实赤裸裸地展现在数百万人面前。
Maybe they always had been, but the 2008 crash and the response to let those guys off the hook just rubbed that ugliness in the face of millions of people.
但这种情绪现在去哪了呢？
Where's that feeling gone, though?
为什么它没能持续支撑这个机构？
Why is it not still there to sustain the institution?
别忘了，政府才是那个没有追究他们责任的一方。
Remember, government was the one that didn't hold them accountable.
没错。
Right.
政府就是那个没有为美国人民抗争的一方。
Government was the one that didn't fight for the American people.
政府就是那个说你们辛苦挣来的税款要流向某些亿万富翁和公司的一方。
Government was the one that said your hard earned tax dollars are gonna go to some billionaire and some company.
该死。
Damn.
就是那家害你失去家园的银行。
Some bank that is actually the bank that cost you your home.
你知道，我不怪人们为此感到愤怒。
You know, I don't blame people for being angry over that.
非常感谢，很高兴见到你。
Thank you so much, and it's good to see your face.
乐意效劳。
Happy to do it.
你知道我总是很乐意和你交谈。
You know I'm always happy to talk to you.
再见，伊丽莎白。
Bye bye, Elizabeth.
我要感谢马萨诸塞州参议员伊丽莎白·沃伦再次抽空与我交谈。
I wanna thank Massachusetts senator Elizabeth Warren for taking the time to speak with me again.
我说再次是因为她实际上出现在我们《挑战规则》第一季中。
I say again because she actually shows up in our first season of Against the Rules.
那一集叫做《七分钟规则》。
That was in an episode called The Seven Minute Rule.
我们当时谈到了消费者金融保护局，以及特朗普政府最初如何试图削弱它。
We spoke back then about the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau and how the first Trump administration was trying to defang it.
现在特朗普的第二届政府已经从削弱转向彻底摧毁消费者金融保护局。
Now the second Trump administration has moved from defanging to destroying the CFPB.
广告回来后，我们将听到一位在金融危机后崛起的截然不同的政治人物的声音——史蒂夫·班农。
When we come back from the break, we're gonna hear from a very different type of political figure who rose to power after the financial crisis, crisis, Steve Bannon.
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嘿，你好。
Hey there.
我是迈克尔·刘易斯。
It's Michael Lewis.
你知道吗？你可以在亚马逊音乐上收听《大空头》配套系列节目《Against the Rules》播客，与你喜欢的其他播客一起收听。
Did you know that you can listen to the Big Short companion series on the Against the Rules podcast on Amazon Music along with your other favorite podcasts?
要开始收听，只需下载亚马逊音乐应用，搜索《Against the Rules》，点击关注即可获取最新剧集。
To start listening, just download the Amazon Music app, search for Against the Rules, and click follow to keep up with new episodes.
你也可以问问Alexa。
You could also ask Alexa.
Alexa，在亚马逊音乐上播放《Against the Rules》。
Alexa, play against the rules on Amazon Music.
亚马逊音乐无限会员现在还可享受Audible服务，你可以在应用中收听《大空头》的有声书。
For Amazon Music Unlimited members, Audible is now included in your membership, and you can also listen to Big Short audiobook in the app.
这样你的播客、有声书和音乐就都集中在一个地方了。
So you have your podcasts, your audiobooks, and your music all in one place.
史蒂夫·班农曾身兼多职：海军军官、媒体高管、投资银行家、政治煽动者、竞选及白宫顾问，还曾是一名囚犯。
Steve Bannon has been many things, a naval officer, a media executive, an investment banker, a political gadfly, a campaign and White House adviser, and a prisoner.
2022年，他因两项藐视国会罪被判有罪，罪名是未遵守关于1月6日国会大厦暴乱事件的传票作证要求。
In 2022, he was convicted of two counts of contempt of congress for failing to comply with a subpoena to testify about the January sixth Capitol insurrection.
他在康涅狄格州丹伯里的低安全级别联邦监狱服刑四个月。
He spent four months at the low security federal prison in Danbury, Connecticut.
当我联系上他时，我们花了些时间聊起那段经历。
When I called him up, we we spent some time talking about that time.
在丹伯里监狱，他们安排我在教育部门工作。
At Danbury, my job was they gave me a job in the education department.
我说，好的，没问题。
I said, Okay, I said, Fine.
他说，我们刚有位同事两周前离职了。
He says, We just had a guy leave a couple weeks ago.
你能接手他的课程吗？
Can you fill in for his course?
我说，好吧，是什么课？
I go, fine, what is it?
他们说是公民课。
And they go civics.
我心想，天啊，这肯定是南希·佩洛西指使的吧？
And I go, oh my God, Nancy Pelosi must've put him up to this, right?
史蒂夫·班农因叛乱罪入狱。
Steve Bannon's in prison for insurrection.
却在教公民课。
He's teaching civics.
我会讲到2008年经济危机、财政赤字、纾困方案、疫情这些事，一桩接一桩。
And I would talk to 2008 crash and the deficits and you know, how it was bailed out, the pandemic, the whole thing boom, boom, boom.
我的课总是爆满，学员主要是因非暴力毒品指控入狱的黑人和拉丁裔年轻人。
And I had super oversubscribed classes, you know, principally black and Hispanic, principally young guys are there on these drug, nonviolent drug charges.
我告诉人们，他们对知识的渴望程度令人难以置信。
And I tell people the thirst that they have to want to learn is unbelievable.
他们想弄清楚这个系统是如何运作的，因为没人教过他们。
They want to figure out how the system works because nobody teaches it to them.
于是我把金融危机救助计划的整个来龙去脉讲了一遍。
And so I go through the whole thing on the bailouts of the financial crisis.
这时后排有个年轻人说，嘿，班农先生，
And I go and one of the young guys in the back goes, Hey, Mr.
您能不能在讲解时，再讲一遍并且这次慢一点？
Bannon, could you, on the way, could you do that again and slower this time?
我说，好的。
I go, Fine.
于是我又从头开始重新讲了一遍。
So I go back up, do it again.
然后他说，班农先生，
And he goes, he says, Mr.
这些事真的发生过吗？
Bannon, is that actually what happened?
我说，尽可能接近吧。
I go, As close as possible.
是的，基本上就是那样发生的。
That's yes, that's basically what happened.
然后他说，而他们却称我们为罪犯。
And he goes, And they call us the criminals.
如果我在1987年或你在高盛工作时的某个时候遇见你，我们一起喝杯啤酒，我问你你的政治立场是什么，我会带着怎样的印象离开？
If I met you in 1987 or whenever you were Goldman Sachs and we'd had a beer and I was asking you just what your politics were, what would I have come away thinking?
高盛非常有趣，因为它有一项政策：不进行敌意收购，不发动突袭，不做恶意突袭。
Goldman was very interesting because Goldman had a policy of no hostile takeovers, no raids, no hostile raids.
我们是防守方。
We were defense.
我大概参与了20次针对迈克·米尔肯和德崇证券对这些公司的突袭防御，你要跑到俄亥俄州的托莱多，或者威斯康星州、密歇根州，那些公司都非常保守，对吧？
I'd probably work on, you know, 20 raid defenses against Mike Milken and Drexel coming at these companies that you go out to Toledo, Ohio, or to, you know, Wisconsin or Michigan, and they were very stodgy, right?
管理方式，还非常像《广告狂人》里那样，对吧？
The management practices, it was still very much mad men, right?
高管们仍然会出去享用两杯马提尼的午餐。
The executives were still going out for the two martini lunches.
我是说，那相当沉闷。
I mean, it was quite sleepy.
而米尔肯则闯入这些公司，掠夺养老金，获取年金，并因股价上涨而攫取养老金中的超额部分。
And Milken was coming in and ripping and getting into these companies and taking the pension funds and getting annuities and taking the excess in the pension funds because the stocks had gone up.
这非常残酷。
It was brutally.
我记得其中一位叫麦克·凯勒的哈佛法学院毕业生，他是副总裁之一，是个非常聪明的人。
I remember one of the guys, a guy named Mac Keller from Harvard Law that was one of the VPs was a brilliant guy.
他说，历史的河流在这个部门流淌得非常深远。
He said, the river of history runs very deep through this department.
我们当时在——我当时在百老汇85号的并购部门。
We were at, I was at 85 Broad in the merger department.
他还说，历史的河流在这里流淌得非常深远。
And he said, the river of history is running very deep here.
我问道，你这是什么意思？
And I go, what do you mean?
他回答说，因为我们实质上是在重组美国经济，进而影响全球经济。
And he said, because we're essentially restructuring the American economy and therefore the global economy.
这将在未来几十年对国家产生巨大影响。
This is going have a massive impact on the country for decades to come.
现在我想快进一下时间线。
So I want to flash you forward now.
你后来去了好莱坞。
You went you then went out to Hollywood.
顺便说一句，在好莱坞稍作停顿。
And by the way, me just brief pause in Hollywood.
你提到过
You mentioned that
你参与了《骗子的扑克》电影版权的事宜。
you had something to do with the movie rights of Liar's Poker.
我们获得了期权。
We optioned.
谁写的？我写了个剧本。
Who's the I wrote a script.
我完全不知道。
I had no idea.
你写了《说谎者的扑克》的剧本？不。
You wrote a script of Liar's No.
其实是和约翰·瓦伦蒂一起，Thingbodrig·瓦伦蒂的儿子，我们俩出去待了两周。
Actually with John Valenti, Thingbodrig Valenti's son, he and I went away for two weeks.
实际上，我得说，我觉得我们还有些收获。
I actually, I have to, I think I still got us some.
我确实写了个剧本。
I actually wrote a script.
我觉得它相当不错。
I thought it was pretty damn good.
是啊。
Yeah.
这是我写的第一部剧本。
First script I ever wrote.
有朝一日我很想看看那个
One day I would love to see that
不，不。
No, no.
我得去把它找出来。
Gotta, I'm a go dig it up now.
我不想...我现在想谈我找你要说的事。
I don't want to, I want to get to the thing I wanted to talk to you about now.
那就是告诉我你现在的生活状况，以及金融危机对你生活造成了哪些影响。
And that is tell me where you are and in your life and what the consequences for you in your life are of the financial crisis.
我在15 Broad买了一套公寓，就在证券交易所对面。
I had bought a condo or co op down at 15 Broad right across from the stock exchange.
我大概是在2006年左右买的。
I bought it in like 2006 or something.
我注意到每次回来时（因为那时我花很多时间在中国，经常在国际上建立业务、进行融资），
And I noticed every time I started coming in, because I was spending time in, a lot of time in China, a lot of time internationally building businesses, financing stuff.
回来后发现整栋楼几乎全是外国人。
I came back, I noticed all the time now, the whole building was like foreigners.
我当时就觉得很有意思，这是怎么回事？
And I said, this is interesting, what's happening here?
于是我在2008年4月把它挂牌出售。
So I put it on the market in April 2008.
当时的经纪人说，这房子根本到不了经纪环节，
And the broker at the time said, this will not even get to the brokers.
在正式委托前就能卖掉，属于抢手货。
This will sell, this will sell pre broker till you go thing.
这可是热门房产。
This is a hot property.
这很抢手。
This is hot.
七月份时，曾有人表示过一点兴趣。
In July, I had had one nibble.
所有人都放弃了。
Everybody had passed.
我当时就想，嘿，肯定有人知道些什么。
And I said, hey, somebody knows something.
这事开始变得不稳定了。
This thing's getting wobbly.
然后金融危机就爆发了。
And then the financial crisis strikes.
我注意到当他们让雷曼兄弟破产时，根本没考虑商业票据市场。
And I noticed that when they put Lehman Brothers into bankruptcy, that they're not thinking about the commercial paper market.
他们在纽约午夜时分让雷曼兄弟破产，我想是为了第二天一早的市场开盘。
They kick Lehman Brothers into bankruptcy, I think at midnight in New York for dawn the next day.
而在伦敦，他们已经将其踢入破产程序。
And in London, they've already kicked it into bankruptcy.
商业票据市场陷入冻结。
The commercial paper market freezes up.
第二天或是周一，我记得那天是周五，克莱默不仅上了CNBC，还上了NBC，发表了那句著名的言论：如果你未来五年需要现金，现在就必须把钱取出来。
The next day or Monday, I think it was Friday, Kramer's on not just CNBC, think he goes on NBC that's he gives the famous, if you need cash in the next five years, you got to get your cash.
我父亲卖掉了他的AT&T股票——当时天主教教会和电话公司持股比例相当。
My dad sells his AT and T stock, which you had the Catholic church and the phone company that was, and they were about equal.
好吧，我父亲是个非常虔诚的人。
Okay, my dad was very religious.
你知道，他每周都领圣餐，经常每天去做弥撒，是个极其虔诚的人。
You know, he's a weekly communicant, go to mass daily a lot, a very super religious guy.
砰的一声，因为克莱默的话他全抛了。
Boom, he blows out because of Kramer.
我当时就想，天啊，这些公司都要破产了。
And I go, Oh my God, these companies are all falling bankrupt.
然后你开始看到救助计划，意识到他们把风险社会化，让纳税人为之买单。
And then you start to see the bailouts and you realize they socialize the risk, make taxpayers pay for it.
而像马蒂·班农这样的小人物，我那时真的开始思考这个问题。
And the little guys like Marty Bannon, and I really started thinking about that.
我想，天哪，这家伙已经完全融入这个体系了。
I go, good Lord, this guy has bought into the system.
他是个体系内的玩家。
He's a systems player.
像我父亲这样的人，百分百信任这个体系，他就是个典型的持家好男人。
When a guy, my dad, 100 He percent the system, just, he's a good householder.
他就是那种，你知道的，典型的小人物，对吧？
He's a, he's a proverbial little guy, right?
但他会存好自己的钱。
But he puts his money away.
他买了公司的股票。
He buys the company stock.
他相信股票投资。
He believes in equities.
他只是相信公司告诉他的事情。
He just believes what the company tells you.
他相信政府告诉他的事情。
He believes what the government tells you.
他是这个国家的脊梁。
He is the backbone of the country.
而我看到那个遵守规则的人却被坑了。
And I see that that guy gets screwed for playing by the rules.
其他所有本该是精英的人都是些投机取巧者。
All the other people that were supposed to be the elites were all freebooters.
你们被称为精英是有原因的。
You're supposed to be the elites for a reason.
你们能得到更好的待遇，因为你们是这个系统的管理者。
You get a better deal because you're the manager of the system.
他们把所有人都坑惨了。
They all fucked everybody.
对吧？
Right?
而落后者就要遭殃。
And the devil catch the hindmost.
这件事对我影响巨大，因为我当时就想，如果连马蒂·班农这样的人都会被坑，这个体系恐怕就要完蛋了。
And that's what it had a huge impact on me because I said, if the Marty Bannons of the world are going to get screwed, this system's not going to, you know, exist.
我强烈反对伊拉克战争和阿富汗战争，因为以我作为初级军官的经历来看，这些战争本身就是错误的。
The wars I'd been anti the Iraq war and Afghanistan war big time because I just saw, you know, from my experience as a very junior grandoon, I just said, you know, these wars are wrong.
你根本不可能赢，诸如此类。
You can't win them, etcetera.
但真正让我变成满腔怒火的民粹主义经济民族主义者，还是那次金融崩溃。
But then that financial collapse is what really and then I became just a heart of a fire breathing, you know, economic populace and economic nationalist.
那这件事对你父亲有什么影响？
So what was the effect on your dad of this?
这很有趣，从来没有过。
Never it's interesting.
真令人着迷。
Fascinating.
从此再也不信任这个体系了。
Never trusted the system ever again.
他会看电视，就那样坐着。
Would watch TV and just would sit there.
我记得有一次他告诉我，在互联网热潮最盛时，他所有的AT&T股票加上房子——我们买那房子只花了大约5000美元，对吧？
One time I remember he told me during the height of the internet thing, I think his AT and T stock, all of it combined with the house, we bought the house for like $5,000, right?
我想是在1957年。
In 'fifty seven, I think it was.
他所有的资产加起来。
All of his stuff combined.
实际上他曾一度在账面上成为百万富翁，要知道他原本只是个蓝领工人，后来勉强算个底层白领。
He actually became a millionaire on paper for a moment in time of just a guy that was a, you know, a blue collar guy that became a lower white collar, you know.
然后它就消失了？
And then it went away?
他把它卖了。
He sold it.
那仍然值，你知道，几十万美元。
It was still worth, you know, hundreds of thousands of dollars.
所以他并没有破产，但从顶峰时期开始，尤其是当崩盘真正开始时，如果他坚持到底，本可以赚到更多钱。
So he wasn't wiped out, but from the peak and then from really when the collapse started, he left a ton of money on the table if he'd just seen it through.
对。
Right.
他，我父亲，在那之后，对一切都持非常怀疑的态度。
He, my dad, after that, everything was a very jaundiced eye.
他成了早期支持特朗普的人之一。
He became one of the early Trump guys.
我父亲活了一百多岁，但他是最早一批支持特朗普的人之一。
My dad died over a 100 years old, but he was one of the very first guys to come on the Trump train.
原因是他曾说特朗普会打破现状。
And the reason was he said Trump will break things.
他会彻底颠覆这个体系，因为在这里小人物总是会被压榨。
He will totally turn this system around because you can't the little guy's always going to get screwed here.
那么请为我梳理金融危机与特朗普崛起之间的关联。
So draw me the line between the financial crisis and Trump's rise.
我认为
I think
那是2008年。
it was 2008.
导火索在那时被点燃并最终引爆。
That fuse was lit that went off.
它在2016年11月8日爆发了。
It blew up in 11/08/2016.
我的历史研究表明，每次金融危机都会引发民粹主义的反弹。
My study history shows every financial crisis, you have a populist reaction to it.
而精英阶层不知道如何应对，对吧？
And the elites don't know how to deal with it, right?
因为他们仍固守旧模式。
Because they're still in the old model.
坦白说，他们在那个旧模式中保护自己，试图继续...你知道的，试图继续维持运作。
And quite frankly, they protected themselves in that old model to still kind of make, you know, still kind of make a run at it.
在我看来，人们已经受够了这一切，这是相当明显的。
And it was pretty obvious to me that people had had a belly full of this.
所以从那时起，我就认为特朗普不仅会成为提名人选，更看到了一个未来的美国总统。
And so from that time on, I thought that Trump I thought Trump was not just going to be the nominee, but I saw a president of The United States there.
你是否认为他的崛起直接源于金融危机引发的愤怒情绪？
Did you think he was his rise was directly a result of the anger that was generated by the financial crisis?
百分之百确定。
1000%.
两件事。
Two things.
金融危机再加上你们现在正处于战争的第十六个或第十七个年头。
The financial crisis coupled with you're now in the sixteenth or seventeenth year of the wars.
它们没有结束。
They don't end.
就是没完没了。
They just don't end.
我认为金融危机所做的是将新自由主义、新保守主义模式的腐败推到了风口浪尖。
What the financial crisis did is I think brought to the forefront the corruption of the neoliberal, neocon, neoconservative model.
这根本行不通。
It just doesn't work.
美国人民并不愚蠢。
People are, American people are not dumb.
最终他们会想明白并意识到：嘿，我被坑了。
Eventually they will think it through and go, hey, I'm getting fucked.
我们本不该经历这场金融危机。
We had not had a financial crisis.
老兄，我当时就在高盛。
And dude, I was at Goldman Sachs.
如果你们实施了这些救助计划，如果是高盛做的，你走进去，把管理层清零，摧毁一切，对吧？
If you had done these bailouts and if Goldman Sachs had done it, you walk in, you zero out management, you crush everything, right?
管理层大概能拿到10%，也许最多20%的收益。
Management will get like 10%, maybe earning to 20%.
美国人民拿到认股权证了吗？
Did the American people get warrants?
他们拿到期权了吗？
Did they get options?
他们的税款被用于救助，而我们得到了什么？
Their tax money went to the bailout and we got what?
8%的利息回报简直是胡扯。
8% back in interest is bullshit.
什么都没改变。
Nothing changed.
对吧？
Right?
你更换了管理层，但没改变激励机制。
You changed the management, but you didn't change the incentive structure.
所以不，没有金融崩溃的情况下，你不会这样做。
So no, with no financial collapse, you do not.
唐纳德·特朗普确实打破了常规模式。
Donald Trump and really overall, Trump kind of broke the mold.
人们非常害怕他们说的话，对吧？
People were so afraid of what they said, right?
而且如此精确地谈论那些不直击人们心窝的话题，因为政治90%仍是情感驱动的，对吧？
And so precise and talked in this thing that didn't hit people in the solar plexus, because politics is still 90% emotional, right?
只有10%是逻辑和理性。
It's 10% logic and rationality.
我不是说政策本身，而是指它的呈现方式。
Not the policies, I'm saying the way it's presented.
特朗普简直是完美人选。
And Trump was he was just perfect.
我当时就说过，对奥巴马的反应不会是保守派的。
And this I said at the time, the reaction to Obama is going to be not conservative.
也不会是共和党的。
It's not going be Republican.
而会是右翼的。
It's going to be right wing.
如果我们策略得当，随着时间的推移，它甚至可能变得更加右倾。
And if we play our cards right, it can be even more right wing over time.
如果奥巴马当时选择用铁腕手段打击这个体系，而不是出手救助，如果他
If Obama had instead brought a hammer to it and attacked the system as opposed to bail it out, if he
让体系崩溃，你觉得会怎样？
had let the system fail, where do you think?
你认为
Do think
这会发生吗？
it's going happen?
这就是为什么他是个悲剧性人物。
And this is why he's a tragic figure.
全世界的人都在告诉你，美国金融体系即将崩溃，随后全球金融体系也会崩溃。
You've got every person in the world telling you the American financial system is going to collapse and the world financial system is going to collapse afterwards.
将会陷入无政府状态和混乱。
It's going to be anarchy and chaos.
你需要五十年才能从中脱身。
It'll take you fifty years to dig out of this.
谁有胆量这么做？
Who's got the balls to do that?
谁有勇气这么做？
Who's got the stones to do that?
谁有这样的智慧和自信？
Who's got the wisdom, the confidence in themselves?
他身边的每个人都说必须进行救助。
Everybody around him said it had to be bailed.
如果他做到了，显然他会成为世界英雄，理应获得诺贝尔奖和国人的赞誉。
If he had done it, obviously he had been a world hero and deserved the Nobel Prize and deserved praises of his countrymen.
但这不会发生。
But it's not going to happen.
马蒂·班农的股票不会升值，它连几十万美元都不值。
Marty Bannon's stock's not going to go it's not going to be worth a couple $100,000.
它将一文不值。
It's going to be worth zero.
对吧？
Right?
然后你向他解释你有个重建计划。
And then you and then you explain to him how you got a plan to build it back up.
是系统自我拯救了。
It was the system saved itself.
现在你看看发生了什么。
Now you look at what happened.
这就是为什么人们说，如此进步的奥巴马医改。
This is why people say, so progressive Obamacare.
我说，你明白那只是个幌子吗？
I said, do you understand that's a sideshow?
真正重要的是精英们保护了自己。
The main event is that the elites protected themselves.
这也让你看清了我们精英阶层的本质。
And it also shows you something about our elites.
你的人生轨迹会有什么不同？
How would your path have been different?
假设这个反事实的情况，如果当时
Let's say this counterfactual, if there
没有发生金融危机？
had not been a financial crisis?
我可能早就，你知道，继续做金融，买卖公司，完全不会涉足政治，现在可能正带着30个花瓶在游艇上逍遥。
I would have, I gone, would I would have been, you know, doing finance, buying and selling companies, not involved in politics at all, you know, on a yacht right now with, I don't know, 30 bimbos.
我是说。
I'm saying.
你已经从
You've come quite a
高盛做并购的投行家走了很长一段路。
long way from being an M and A guy at Goldman Sachs.
你现在听起来完全不像高盛做并购的投行家了。
You don't sound like an M and A guy at Goldman Sachs anymore.
你和过去的金融生涯还保持什么联系吗？
Do you have any kind of relationship with your old financial life?
你现在还会见华尔街的人吗？
Do you still see Wall Street people?
我仍然经常见到高盛的老同事并和他们交谈。
I still see and talk to a lot of the guys from Goldman.
如果你深入了解，华尔街最聪明的人和这些高盛的家伙，他们明白一件事。
If you get in look, The smartest guys on Wall Street and this Goldman guys, they understand something.
这个体系必须改变。
The system has to change.
这个国家的精英们面临一个彻底的选择。
The elites in this country have a total choice.
我们需要沿着国家当前的道路走下去，最终会走向路易吉或曼达米那样的境地。
We need to go down the path where the country is, and you're gonna get to Luigi or Mandami.
好吧，那就是你们要去的方向。
Okay, that's where you're going.
或者我们可以开始进行根本性的变革，避免那种局面，真正让国家重回正轨共同繁荣，停止战争，建立更公平的机制——不仅是收入和劳动分配的公平，最终实现股权分配的公平。
Or we can start to have basic fundamental change here and avoid that and actually try to get the country back on track and prosper together, stopping the wars, having a more equitable, not just distribution of income, of work and effort, but eventually equity.
我们必须建立一个让普通人觉得自己也能分一杯羹的体系。
We have to set up a system that the little guy thinks he gets a piece of the action.
人们不能在这里待上五代人。
People can't be here five generations.
我不在乎你的种族、民族或宗教信仰是什么。
I don't care what your race is, what your ethnicity is, what your religion is.
我不在乎。
I don't care.
你们建造了教堂。
You've built the churches.
你们创建了公民社会。
You've created civil society.
你们执教过少年联赛。
You've coached the little leagues.
你们曾参与战争服役。
You've served in the wars.
你们完成了所有被要求做的事，甚至自愿承担更多。
You've done everything you've been asked to do and more that you volunteered for.
而这就是你们得到的回报。
And here's what you got to show for it.
你手里握着你的老二。
Your dick in your hand.
你一无所有。
You don't own anything.
平均收入是52,000美元，而普通美国人拥有什么？
And the average income is $52,000 and the average American has what?
现金不足一千美元？
Under a thousand dollars in cash?
这样行不通。
It's not going to work.
特朗普似乎对此毫无作为。
Trump doesn't seem to be doing anything about it.
当你当你
When you when you
把这个归咎于特朗普时，他会说什么？
lay this on Trump, what does he say?
我们正在处理这件事。
We're working on it.
我认为他首先在处理税务问题，那个漂亮的大法案。
I think he's I think he's going through the tax thing first, the big beautiful bill.
但我想你会看到他的策略，贝森等人的供给侧模式，那些人相信，我认为案件理论中，你最后一次供给侧任务的机会就是那个。
But I think you're going to get his look, the supply side model with Besson, those guys believed, and I think the theory of case, your last chance for a supply side task out was that.
所以你通过关税和经济激励双管齐下，促使人们带来资本设备和资本投资，你可以立即进行折旧。
So you incentivize people both with tariffs and with economic incentives to bring, you know, capital equipment, capital investment, you get to depreciate it right away.
这些人，这就是为什么特朗普总统更专注于吸引全球投资到我们国家。
Those people, and this is why President Trump's more focused, I think, on getting investments here in the country from around the world.
对。
Right.
老实说，我对此并不热衷。
Which I'll be honest, I'm not crazy about.
但特朗普总统以他自己的方式，我认为是有计划的。
But President Trump in his own way, I think has a plan.
你可以看到他在执行这个计划。
You can see he's executing on it.
对吧？
Right?
而这个计划，我认为必须实施完毕，才能进入下一阶段，那可能会是更为激进的举措。
And that plan, I think has to play out before you go to the next phase and something that I think could be more radical.
我告诉人们，更激进的变革即将到来。
And I tell people more radicals coming.
特朗普总统正在做的一件事，就是对行政体系和深层政府发起全面攻击。
The one thing President Trump is doing, it's a full on assault on the administrative in the deep state.
当斯科特·贝森——你知道他曾是我们的候选人——出现时，我和埃隆为此又大吵一架，因为斯科特在资本市场方面是个稳健的操盘手。
When you have Scott Bessen, who, as you know, was our candidate and this is where Elon and I got in a huge another fight because Scott's a safe pair of hands on capital markets.
他多年来一直是战情室的贡献者之一。
He's one of the contributors at the war room for years.
当斯科特·贝森在《华尔街日报》发表文章，提出要拆分美联储并将其大部分职能分配给其他机构，只保留调控通胀职能时，我说这位兄弟已经加入革命了，明白吗？
When Scott Bessen writes a piece in The Wall Street Journal that talks about literally breaking apart the Federal Reserve and giving out most of its functions to other institutions and leave it just in turn inflation, I say that brother's joined the revolution, okay?
因为这是在针对主要权力机构，你知道的，中央情报局、美联储、中央司令部，这些帝国首都的核心权力机构。
Because this is going after the major power, you know, the CIA, the Federal Reserve, CENTCOM, the major power institutions in the imperial capital.
所以我认为人们应该明白。
So I think people should understand.
这就是我一直告诉人们的。
And this is what I tell people all the time.
那些憎恨'橙子人坏'的左派，整晚都在MSNBC上骂特朗普、特朗普、特朗普。
The left that hate orange man bad and hate him and, you know, MSNBC all night long, it's just Trump and Trump and Trump.
未来他们会希望特朗普还在台上。
They're going to wish that Trump was still around in the future.
他们会希望特朗普依然在位。
They're going to wish Trump was still around.
特朗普算是保守派，但某种程度上也是个温和派。
Trump is a kind of a, he's conservative, but he's kind of a moderate.
他是个纽约客。
He's a New York City guy.
他是个非常善于交际的人。
He's a very people person.
他心胸宽广。
He's got a big heart.
他喜欢有钱人。
He likes rich people.
但要对付特朗普可难多了。
But he's there's a lot harder to come after Trump.
而我认为这应该是我们希望的发展方向。
And I think that's hopefully where we go.
刚才发言的是史蒂夫·班农，现任《战争室》播客主持人。
That was Steve Bannon, now host of the War Room podcast.
这差不多就要带我们进入尾声了
And that about brings us to the end
本次关于后续影响的特别迷你季
of this special miniseason on the aftermath of
《大空头》
The Big Short.
非常感谢您的收听。
Thanks so much for listening.
我会时不时地在这个频道回归。
I'll be back in this feed from time to time.
但现在，我要去写我的下一本书了。
But for now, I'm off to work on my next book.
迈克尔，在告别《大空头》之前，你还有什么最后的想法吗？
Do you have any last thoughts before we say goodbye to the Big Short, Michael?
事实上，我有。
I do, actually.
是的。
Yeah.
我最后
My last
最后的想法是，你知道吗？
thought is, you know what?
我有个希望能做但没做成的采访。
I there's an interview I wish I could have done and we didn't do.
好的。
Okay.
谁？
Who?
唐纳德·特朗普。
Donald Trump.
哦，是啊。
Oh, yeah.
我想和唐纳德·特朗普谈谈。
That I want to talk to Donald Trump.
唐纳德·特朗普，华尔街的产物，财务上不负责任，诸如此类。
Donald Trump, creature of Wall Street, financially irresponsible, all the rest.
他在多大程度上意识到，如果没有那次事件，他根本不会作为一个政治人物存在？
To what extent is he aware that he does not exist as a political figure without that event?
我觉得我们正在揭示一些其他人可以跟进的内容。
I feel like we're surfacing something that other people can run with.
关键在于这是一个极其重大的议题，它应该鲜活地存在于人们的想象中。
It's that this is a really big subject, and it should be alive and present in people's imagination.
是啊。
Yeah.
2008年金融危机发生时我完全错过了，当时我还觉得这根本不是什么大事。
I missed the two thousand and eight financial crisis when it happened, and I thought it was like, no problem.
我原本以为自己永远不需要了解它。
I never need to know about it.
不过我很庆幸后来还是了解了。
But I'm glad I learned about it.
我的意思是，你现在就活在这个危机塑造的世界里。
I mean, you're living in its world.
你正生活在它创造的世界里。
You're living in the world it created.
这听起来夸张，但事实并非如此。
It sounds hyperbolic, but it's not.
《打破规则：大空头番外篇》由迈克尔·刘易斯主持。
Against the Rules, The Big Short Companion is hosted by Michael Lewis.
由我莉迪亚·让·科特与凯瑟琳·吉拉尔多联合制作。
It's produced by me, Lydia Jean Cott, and Catherine Girardeau.
我们的编辑是朱莉娅·巴顿。
Our editor is Julia Barton.
主题曲由尼克·伯特尔作曲，工程师是汉斯·戴尔·希。
Our theme was composed by Nick Bertell, and our engineer is Hans Dale Shee.
特别感谢妮可·奥普滕博什、贾斯敏·福斯蒂诺、帕梅拉·劳伦斯以及普希金有声书团队其他成员。
Special thanks to Nicole Optenbosch, Jasmine Faustino, Pamela Lawrence, and the rest of the Pushkin Audiobooks team.
还要感谢几位让本季节目得以实现的幕后人员。
Plus, to a few more people who made this season possible.
格蕾塔·科恩、雅各布·韦斯伯格、莎拉·尼克斯、克里斯蒂娜·沙利文、埃里克·桑德勒、摩根·罗特纳、凯拉·波西、乔丹·麦克米伦、杰克·弗拉纳根、欧文·米勒、法拉·德格朗吉和莎拉·布鲁格。
Greta Cohn, Jacob Weisberg, Sarah Nix, Christina Sullivan, Eric Sandler, Morgan Rotner, Keira Posey, Jordan McMillan, Jake Flanagan, Owen Miller, Farrah Degrunge, and Sarah Bruguer.
《打破常规》是Pushkin Industries制作的节目。
Against the rules is a production of Pushkin Industries.
想收听更多Pushkin出品的播客，请通过iHeartRadio应用、Apple Podcasts或您常用的播客平台进行收听。
To find more Pushkin podcasts, listen on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen to podcasts.
如果您希望无广告收听并了解其他独家内容，别忘了在pushkin.fm/+或我们的Apple节目页面注册Pushkin Plus订阅服务。
And if you'd like to listen ad free and learn about other exclusive offerings, don't forget to sign up for a Pushkin Plus subscription at pushkin.fm/+ or on our Apple show page.
您现在可以在pushkin.fm/audiobooks或任何有声书销售平台购买《大空头》。
And you can get The Big Short now at pushkin.fm/audiobooks or wherever audiobooks are sold.
嘿，你好。
Hey there.
我是迈克尔·刘易斯。
It's Michael Lewis.
你知道吗？你可以在Amazon Music上收听《打破常规》播客中的《大空头》配套系列节目，与你喜爱的其他播客一起。
Did you know that you can listen to the Big Short companion series on the Against the Rules podcast on Amazon Music along with your other favorite podcasts.
开始收听，只需下载亚马逊音乐应用，搜索《Against the Rules》，点击关注即可获取最新剧集。
To start listening, just download the Amazon Music app, search for Against the Rules, and click follow to keep up with new episodes.
你也可以问问Alexa。
You could also ask Alexa.
Alexa，在亚马逊音乐上播放《Against the Rules》。
Alexa, play against the rules on Amazon Music.
亚马逊音乐无限会员现在可享受Audible服务，还能在应用中收听《大空头》有声书。
For Amazon Music Unlimited members, Audible is now included in your membership, and you can also listen to Big Short audiobook in the app.
这样你的播客、有声书和音乐就都集中在一个地方了。
So you have your podcasts, your audiobooks, and your music all in one place.
这里是iHeart播客《Guaranteed Human》。
This is an iHeart podcast, Guaranteed Human.
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