本·霍罗威茨谈人工智能基础设施、经济与软件新法则

美国现在就得把整个基础设施重新建一遍。

America's gotta rebuild its entire infrastructure, like, right now.

我们缺少足够的稀土矿物。

We don't have enough rare earth minerals.

我们的电力供应根本不够用。

We don't have enough electricity.

制造能力也严重不足。

We don't have enough manufacturing capacity.

英伟达能生产足够的芯片，但内存又跟不上了。

NVIDIA will make enough chips, but then we won't have enough memory.

几乎每个环节都卡住了。

Almost everything is a bottleneck.

中国的曲线是这样的，美国的曲线是那样的。

The China graph is like this, and The US graph is like that.

我们怎么才能让这看起来没那么吓人？

How do we make this seem less scary?

科技的历史一直都是在不断进步的。

The history of technology is things have always gotten better.

人类总能想出他们真正需要的新东西，这简直不可思议。

Humans are kind of unbelievable in their ability to come up with new things that they need.

现在，八十亿人脑子里的想法，都能被表达出来。

Now 8,000,000,000 people that might have an idea in their head can get it out of their head.

我觉得接下来会发生的是

I do think what's going to happen is

过去五十年，科技界有一条几乎被视为铁律的规则：你没法靠砸钱解决软件问题。

For fifty years, one rule in technology was almost sacred: you cannot buy your way out of a software problem.

就算雇一千个工程师，也追不上跑得更快的竞争对手。

Hire a thousand engineers and you still won't catch a faster competitor.

弗雷德·布鲁克斯把它叫做‘神话般的人月’，每个工程主管都深信不疑。

Fred Brooks called it the mythical man month, and every engineering leader believed it.

这条规则现在不管用了。

That rule no longer holds.

只要有足够的GPU和合适的数据，公司现在能把原本需要几年的开发周期压缩到几周内。

With enough GPUs and the right data, companies can now compress years of development into weeks.

但这种颠覆是双向的。

But the disruption cuts both ways.

让初创公司加速前进的力量，也在同时瓦解着大公司原有的护城河——客户粘性、专有数据、转换成本，全都一起在消退。

The same forces that let startups move faster are dissolving the moats that protected incumbents: customer lock in, proprietary data, switching costs all eroding at once.

那么在一个旧有防御机制失效的世界里，到底是什么让一家公司值得被创建、被投资、被坚持？

So in a world where the old defenses no longer work, what actually makes a company worth building, funding, or keeping?

a16z的联合创始人兼普通合伙人本·霍洛维茨，在迪尔山谷举办的金融科技大会上，与a16z普通合伙人亚历克斯·兰佩尔对话。

Ben Horowitz, co founder and general partner at a16z, speaks with a16z general partner Alex Rampell at Fintech Connect Conference in Deer Valley.

你在这行干了这么多年，我想不如就从这儿开始——说来有趣，我们根本没排练过，就是想让对话更真实，对吧？咱们聊聊你那本书吧，你在书里讲了当CEO有多难，还有你在LoudCloud和Opsware经历的一切。

So you've been doing this for a long time, and I thought maybe I'd start off, and it's funny, we actually didn't rehearse this at all because I thought that way it would be more real, right, But more let's talk about, you have this book where you talked about how hard it is to be a CEO and everything that you went through at LoudCloud and Opsware.

那是一次巨大的转变，市场几乎崩盘，金融环境也彻底恶化。

That was a giant shift where it's like the market kind of collapsed, the financial market collapsed.

你不得不彻底转型，彻底改变公司。

And you had to really pivot and just change the company.

现在冒出来一批新兴公司。

And there are new age companies that are popping up right now.

它们是原生AI公司，至少希望它们已经准备好了。

AI first, it's like they hopefully have their shit together.

它们正全速推进，打造全新的东西。

They're off to the races building something new.

但像五年前或十年前那样的老牌公司，虽然机会很大，挑战也同样巨大。

But like a legacy company or five or ten years ago where there's this great opportunity, but also great challenge.

一个成立五到十年的CEO该怎么办？

What does a five or 10 year old CEO do?

它们还没赶上AI这波浪潮。

Where it's like, they're pre AI.

它们得搞清楚自己该往哪儿走。

They gotta figure out what they do.

金融市场对它们可不太友好。

Financial markets hate them.

对，没错。

Yes, yes.

所以金融市场根本不关心你是谁。

So there's the financial Doesn't markets matter who you are.

没错。

Yes.

所以我不确定，也许你可以就此展开聊聊。

So I don't know, maybe riff on that.

我很想听听你的看法。

I'd love to hear your thoughts.

是的，我认为在这种巨大的变革中，首先得明白一些基本的规律已经变了。

Yeah, well, I think the first thing you have to recognize in a kind of huge dislocation like this is some very basic axiomatic like laws of physics are different.

和过去几十年科技公司的发展方式相比，AI时代有两个根本不同的地方：第一，过去大家很清楚，光砸钱是解决不了问题的。

And the two that are really different with AI compared to how companies have been built in kind of technology forever is, one, it used to be very well known that you cannot throw money at the problem.

比如，如果我的产品落后了两年，我没法靠招一千个工程师就追上竞争对手。

So for example, if I had a product and I was two years behind, I could not hire a thousand engineers and catch my competitor.

这就像《人月神话》里说的，九个女人没法在一个月内生出一个孩子，谁都懂，这根本行不通，没问题。

Like it's a mythical man month, nine women can't have a baby in a month, everybody knows that, it never works, No problem.

但现在不一样了。

That's no longer true.

现在你真能用钱砸出解决方案。

You can throw money at the problem.

只要你有足够的资金和优质数据，就能买下足够的显卡，几乎解决任何软件问题。

If you have enough money and some good data, you can buy enough GPUs and solve basically anything and software.

所以这条规矩已经不成立了。

So that's gone.

第二点，我们以前笃信的是，在软件行业，谁占着客户谁就占了九成优势。

The second thing that we knew for sure is like in software, possession is nine tenths of the law.

只要你掌握了客户，就有了多重锁定效应。

So if you have the customer, you have multiple lock ins.

还有迁移的壁垒，客户很难离开。

You have the migration pane lock in.

还有数据锁定。

You've got the data lock in.

还有用户界面锁定。

You've got the user interface lock in.

这些现在基本都不存在了，对吧？

Those are pretty much gone, right?

所以复制代码变得非常容易。

So it's very easy to replicate the code.

迁移数据也轻而易举。

It's very easy to move the data.

接下来跟你软件互动的甚至都不是人了。

And then it's not even going be a human talking to your software.

而是人工智能。

It's going to be an AI.

AI在使用用户界面方面灵活得多。

And AIs are really flexible on how they use user interfaces.

所以那种模式已经没了。

So that mode is gone.

作为CEO，你第一件事就得明白：这种模式注定要被淘汰。

So I think that's just like the first thing you have to recognize as a CEO that like, okay, that's going away.

那接下来呢？

So then what is it?

你的价值在哪里？

Where is your value?

你到底在提供什么？

What are you delivering?

事实上，还有很多有价值的东西。

And it turns out there are many things that are of value.

但如果你指望靠这些来定高价，肯定会面临巨大压力。

But if you're trying to get good pricing through any of those things, you're going to be under tremendous pressure.

你的定价必须建立在更独特、更不可替代的价值之上。

Your price has to be a function of some other value that's much more distinct that you provide.

明白了。

Got it.

另外，我们公司内部也讨论过很多次，以前如果产品做得好，可能能卖个十年，或者至少五年。

And the other thing that we've talked about this a lot internally as a firm is that once upon a time, like if you have a good product, you might have ten years to run with that product, maybe five years.

但现在可能只有五周。

And now it might be like five weeks.

我们也会拿这个来类比公司上市的情况。

Well, we also talk about this, like in terms of going public.

所以公司保持私有的时间越来越长，这大概是个好事。

So companies are staying private a lot longer, which probably is good.

当你经历生存危机时，你肯定更愿意以私有公司的身份去应对，而不是上市公司。

You're going through an existential crisis, you'd much rather do that as a private company than a public company.

另外，SaaS行业出现危机的原因，是因为大家对其终值产生了怀疑。

But also the reason why the SaaS apocalypse is happening is because there are doubts on terminal value.

确实如此。

Yeah.

没错。

Right.

所以每个创业的人，都是冲着创造经济价值去的。

So everybody who starts a company, they're doing it because they want to create economic value.

他们本质上是资本家。

They're capitalists.

他们就是想从这个方程式里赚到钱。

They're trying to actually benefit from this equation financially.

但如果你拖得太久，公司可能就一文不值了。

But if you wait too long, maybe your company's worth zero.

这挺吓人的。

That's kind of scary.

风险一直都有，但过去是几十年才显现的。

And that was always risk, but it would play out over decades.

对，这风险来得没那么快。

Yeah, it's not as fast a risk.

我想如果你

I guess if you

你要是 Loudcloud 的 CEO，那现在公司还在，不过这例子不太合适。

were I mean, Loudcloud's around today, you're the CEO and again, bad example.

我给你举个例子。

To give you.

这可太吓人了。

Very scary.

我知道。

I know.

实际上，Loudcloud 现在可能会是

Actually Loudcloud would be

没错，就是这样。

Yeah, exactly.

你会处于非常有利的位置。

You would be very well positioned.

但话说回来，CEO到底该怎么做才能不一样呢？

But I guess what is it that a CEO should do potentially differently?

我的意思是， obviously 要跑得更快、砍得更果断、更高效，砸钱进去——这些我们之前都聊过了。

I mean, obviously move faster, cut faster, be more efficient, throw money at them, like all these things that we've talked about.

可问题是，万一我上市后被颠覆了，那我就得面对一个惨淡的未来：变成一只仙股。

But it's like, shit, if I go public and I get disrupted, then I have this terrible life of I'm going be a penny stock.

如果我选择等下去，又可能被彻底碾碎。

If I just wait, there's this chance that I get eviscerated.

这种像被车碾过的成功路径，真的挺吓人的，对吧？

And this kind of like roadkiller success equation is kind of scary, right?

我的意思是，这事儿一直都很吓人，但以前你至少还有时间，现在感觉时间都不够了。

I mean, it's always scary, but you would have time and now it feels like you don't.

是的，你得

Yeah, think you

对自己诚实一点，搞清楚你到底真正拥有什么。

do have to be honest with yourself on like what it is you have really.

有些公司确实该被抛弃，有些则不然。

Like there are companies that get thrown under the bus correctly and ones that don't.

如果你把这些想法推到极致，就会觉得什么都不值钱了——毕竟公司里没人，没人会买你那破软件。但现实没这么简单，很多事情的发展比我们想象的要慢得多。

And then if you take a lot of these ideas to their logical conclusion, nothing is worth anything because there are no people at companies and if there are no people who's going to buy your shitty software, But like it is more like subtle and it just tends to take much longer than we think for some of these things to play out.

所以问题来了，在这段时间里，你是在变强，还是在衰退？

So then the question is, are you getting stronger in that meanwhile or are you degenerating?

情况可能是，根本没人买账，钱流向了别处，客户在买别的东西，而不是你的产品。

So is what's happening, nobody's buying like the money just shifted, the customers are buying other stuff, they're not buying yours.

如果是这样，那你就有大麻烦了。

In that case, you have a huge problem.

你很可能得大刀阔斧地砍预算，然后转型。

You probably have to cut deeply and pivot.

不过话说回来，也有些公司估值被砸得稀烂，但基本面其实挺扎实。

On the other hand, look, there's companies that have been slaughtered in the valuation game, but are pretty strong.

我正在Navan这家公司的董事会，你知道的。

So I'm on the board of this company, Navan, right?

他们的差旅业务。

Their travel.

所以很明显，SaaSpocalypse来了，他们完蛋了，没人会做差旅了。

So obviously the SaaSpocalypse, like they're dead, no way you're doing travel.

但你要是深入一看就会发现，事情其实没那么简单，因为做差旅，你必须建立明确的合作关系，尤其是对任何有点规模的公司来说。

But then you look under the covers and you go, well, it actually is a little more complicated than that because on travel, like you actually need explicit relationships to find providing your travel and you're any kind of company that's important at all.

你得在全球范围内出差。

Need to travel globally.

所以你得跟全球每一家航空公司、每一家酒店、每列火车，所有相关方都建立联系。

So now I need a relationship with every single airline in the world, every single hotel in the world, every train, everything.

这些你都得搞定。

You've got to deal with that.

你还得对接他们的预算系统之类的各种后台。

You've got to kind of connect back to their budgeting systems and all these things.

还有第二件事，没人愿意干——包括OpenAI或者Anthropic在内，都不想直接去卖东西给那些差旅经理。

And then the second thing that's like nobody wants to do, including OpenAI or Anthropic is sell to the damn travel manager.

根本没人能接触到旅行经理。

Like nobody has a channel to the travel manager.

这根本不像个靠谱的主意，你根本想象不到会有人这么干。

It's not something like and you can't even imagine that being a good idea.

你想往前走，就得像Intuit那样，把自己变成一家更像AI的公司，然后牢牢抓住客户。

You want to keep advancing, you want to kind of do the things that Intuit is doing where like, okay, like turn ourselves into more of an AI company and then kind of hold the customer.

顺便说一句，那种由AI驱动的旅行体验，实际比你想象的复杂得多。

And by the way, like the AI, like the agentic travel experience turns out to be much more complicated than one would think.

我不知道以后会不会变，但眼下就是这样。

And I don't know if it stays that way, but that's the way it is today.

所以我觉得这事儿高度依赖公司本身。

So I think it's very company dependent.

我不觉得所有情况都一样，但我确实觉得，一个全新的时代正在到来。

Like I don't think it's all one thing, but I do think brave new world.

如果你还用老眼光看它，以为规则没变，那你就死定了——因为这地方的规则完全不一样了。

And if you keep looking at it like the old world, and it's got completely different laws of physics, you are definitely gonna die.

是的。

Yeah.

那我们来聊聊风险投资吧。

Well, maybe let's talk about venture capital.

现在也有很多人在瞎折腾。

There's a lot of cope going on now too.

所以你得小心对待这一点。

So like, you gotta be careful with that.

关键是，有些东西确实属于核心功能，以前开发一个功能要花很长时间，所以还不如专注自己最擅长的，发挥比较优势。

Well, that's the thing, it's like there's some things that really are features and before it would take a long time to build a feature, so you might as well, know, it's comparative advantage.

大卫·李嘉图。

David Ricardo.

我完全可以自己焊接钢材。

I could weld my own steel.

我也可以自己种粮食，但我选择不做，因为做别的事能给我带来更大的经济价值。

I could grow my own food, but I'm just going to not do that because I can do things that actually produce more economic value for me.

但现在，创建功能变得没那么难了，但功能不等于产品，更不等于公司。

But now it's just becoming not that hard to go create features, but features are not products or not companies.

我们一直都有这个区别。

And we've always had this distinction.

功能、产品、公司，这三者本来是清楚的，可现在有点模糊了，因为现在要做出一个功能、一个产品，甚至获取所有数据，都变得太容易了。

There's feature product company, but it's a little bit confusing figuring out which one is which right now, just because the ability to create a feature and create a product and even get all of the data.

我最喜欢的一句话是：最优秀的公司拥有的不是客户，而是‘人质’——就连那些被当成‘人质’的公司，也能把数据拿回来。

My favorite saying the best companies have hostages, not customers, like even get some of the data out of the hostage company.

是的。

Yeah.

所以现在这个世界特别混乱，很难分清到底什么算什么，这正好可以引出下一个话题——风险投资领域，你是怎么看的？

So it's a very, very confusing world in terms of figuring out which one is, which is kind of maybe a good segue to venture capital land of how do you think.

我的意思是，你2009年创办这家机构的时候，正赶上严重的金融危机，其实是历史上最大的一次全球金融危机。

I mean, when you started this firm in 2009, big financial crisis, well, actually, very, very big financial crisis, global financial crisis going on, the biggest.

从那以后，世界已经发生了翻天覆地的变化。

The world has changed a lot since then.

我的意思是，今天发生的一切，有多少还符合当年的思维模式，又有多少已经完全不一样了，简直像进入了一个全新的世界？咱们可以聊聊这个。

I mean, how much of what's happening today kind of fits within the mental model of back then and how much is kind of Brave New World, maybe riff on that a little bit.

是的，确实差别巨大。

Yeah, so it's really different.

我们第一支基金是三亿美元，当时全是传统的有限合伙人出资，比如大学捐赠基金、慈善基金会、母基金之类的。

So our first fund was $300,000,000 and we raised it from all the traditional kind of LPs, endowments, charitable foundations, etcetera, fund of funds.

而我们最近刚募了150亿美元，这还只是七支基金里的四支。

We just raised $15,000,000,000 four of the seven funds, four of the seven funds.

连整个基金体系都没算全呢。

So like not even the whole complex.

而且这次的投资者群体跟以前完全不同。

And we raised it from very, very different kinds of investors.

我们刚起步时，几乎没有任何国际资金，现在国际资金已经占到35%了，来源也五花八门。

So we, like basically none of our LP base was international when we started and we're at like 35% international money and it's from all kinds of places.

科技的重要性更是今非昔比，变得无比关键。

And just tech has gotten more, tech has gotten so much more important.

我觉得我们现在必须用一种以前从未有过的方式来看待这个世界。

I think that we have to think in terms of the world in a way that we just didn't before.

比如说，你可能会问，为什么你们要筹这么多钱？

So for example, like with, you know, why'd you raise so much money?

说起来我还挺懊恼的，因为我自己都没能把这个想法在内部讲清楚，其实我们本来可以筹到更多的。

Which by the way, I'm kind of mad at myself because I don't even think I articulated internally well enough because we could have raised even more money.

下次就别担心了。

Next time, don't worry.

当时其实还有更多资金在等着我们。

We had more money on the table.

但我当时的想法是，美国现在必须立刻重建整个基础设施，因为我们拥有足够的稀土资源。

But the way I was thinking about it is, look, America's got to rebuild its entire infrastructure like right now because we have enough rare earth minerals.

还有电力。

Electricity.

但我们缺乏足够的制造能力。

We don't have enough manufacturing capacity.

我们用的芯片根本不合适。

We have the wrong chips.

耗电实在太吓人了。

Like they take way too much damn power.

这些芯片本来是为游戏设计的。

They were built for games.

我们根本没准备好迎接这样的未来世界，总得有人来投资，而这显然需要大笔资金。

We enough don't anything kinda to be in this future world and somebody's gotta fund it and clearly that's gonna take a lot of money.

这一切都是全新的，说真的，有点让人喘不过气，但至关重要。

So all that is brand new and I would say it's like fairly overwhelming in a sense, but like it is really, really important.

美国的电力供应已经快撑不住了。

Like we're pretty much out of electricity down in The United States.

不是一年后，就是现在，马上就要断电了。

Like, not twelve months from now, like right now.

中国的曲线是这样的，美国的曲线则是那样。

The China graph is like this and The US graph is like that.

是的。

Yeah.

这些芯片的需求并不是直线上升的。

It's not like demand for these tokens is straight vertical.

但要提升产能，根本就不是能直线推进的事。

But the ability to kind of build that capacity is absolutely not vertical.

所以我们需要一个新时代。

So we need new era.

我的意思是，我们该投资的是电力变压器公司，不是什么AI变压器，而是真正的电力变压器公司，因为我们需要更好、更容易制造、更高效的变压器。

I mean, like, need we invested in a transformer company, not like a an AI transformer, like an actual power transformer company because you need kind of better, easier to manufacture, more efficient transformers.

自从我们开始用电以来，变压器的基本设计就没怎么变过。

And the transformer hasn't changed since really we invest electricity.

像这类问题。

So like these kinds of things.

话说回来，有句老话叫：高价本身就是治愈高价的良药。

Well, I guess how, so there's an old saying, the cure for high prices is high prices.

但问题是，这里面延迟太严重了。

But the problem is there's a lot of latency involved.

现在有些电脑买回来居然连内存都没有。

So right now there are computers that show up with no RAM.

比如你去戴尔买服务器，他们跟你说：不好意思，内存全卖光了，因为全都被人抢走了。他们可以建新厂，或者你我干脆一起建个DRAM工厂，但那得花五年时间。

Like if you buy, you go buy a server from Dell, they're like, sorry, we don't have any RAM to sell you because all of that has been gobbled up because yeah, they could build a new factory or you and I could decide to go build a DRAM factory that would take us five years.

对。

Yep.

那你怎么想？我们觉得现在就得动手了。

So how do you I mean, we don't believe You gotta start now.

没错，现在就得开始。

Yeah, you gotta start now.

但如果你还记得的话——你当然记得——1999年的时候，大家说：得赶紧铺更多光纤，对吧？

But this is actually, if you remember, which you obviously do, 1999, it's like, well, we have to build more fiber, right?

得增加容量，但情况完全不同了，因为现在所有GPU都供不应求。

We have to build more capacity, but it's obviously very different because all the GPUs are hot.

现在所有的灯都亮着。

They're all lit right now.

但那时候，大部分光纤都是暗的。

And back then, most of the fiber was dark.

但你怎么做到像……

But how do you get like

是的，当年建光纤的时候，瓶颈其实出现在别的地方。

Yeah, well, were bottlenecks when we were building fiber, the bottlenecks were kind of in different places.

比如服务器根本没法把数据传得足够快，连视频都撑不住。

Like the servers weren't capable of putting bits out even fast enough to do video, right?

那时候软件也很原始，根本没有负载均衡器，没有应用服务器，什么都没有。

And like this software was really, we didn't have load balancers, we didn't have application servers, we didn't have anything.

所以你有了一堆光纤和带宽，却没法真正做出像样的应用。

And so you had all this fiber and all this bandwidth, like you can actually build the applications.

而且那时候大多数终端用户也没法用上这个网络。

And then most of the end users weren't, it's a network too.

所以另一头的人根本连不上网，事情就搞不起来。

So people weren't connected on the other end, so it just didn't work.

后来又碰上互联网泡沫破裂，各种问题都来了。

And then we had the .com crash and all these things.

现在情况有点不一样了，因为每个环节都成了瓶颈。

So now we're in a little different place because almost everything is a bottleneck.

我觉得将来我们肯定先有足够的芯片，再有充足的电力。

I do think what's gonna happen is like, we'll probably have enough chips long before we have enough electricity.

Nvidia 能造出足够的芯片，但内存跟电力还是跟不上。

So Nvidia will make enough chips, but then we won't have enough memory and we won't have enough electricity.

我们现在就处在这么个局面。

So we're in that kind of situation now.

所以你得仔细分析供应链的每个环节，看看怎么打破这些瓶颈。

So I think you really have to study where we are at each point in the supply chain and figure out how to alleviate those bottlenecks.

顺便说一句，真得感谢马斯克，搞那个关税工厂，这主意不错。

And by the way, God bless Elon, the tariff fab, that's the idea.

他会亲自去解决所有瓶颈问题，这正是他的做事方式，所以我们才需要他。

He's gonna just go deal with all the bottlenecks himself, which is how he does things, which is why we need him.

确实如此。

Indeed.

我觉得你在三件事上特别在行：嘻哈、人工智能和加密货币。

So I feel like you're an expert in three things, hip hop, AI and crypto.

我对嘻哈一窍不通，但从你这儿听了不少，咱们还是聊聊另外两个吧。

And I don't know anything about hip hop, but I've heard a lot from you, but let's talk about the other two.

尤其是加密货币和人工智能。

In particular crypto and AI.

我刚写过这方面的内容。

So I actually just wrote about this.

你记得加密货币的起源是哈希现金吧。

I mean, you remember the origins of crypto was hashcash.

对，没错，当然。

Yeah, yeah, yeah.

从我的角度看，现在最让人担心的是，任何人用Claude或者ChatGPT都能深入定制电话和邮件内容。

And the scariest thing right now from my perspective is that everybody with Claude or with ChatGPT can actually like go super deep and personalize a phone call and email.

感觉所有的沟通都要彻底失效了。

It seems like all communication is going to be completely unusable.

对。

Yep.

我不知道你是不是也这么觉得。

I don't if you agree with me.

我完全同意。

I 100%

没错。

agree.

因为平时我都能直接删、删掉。

Because it's like normally I can just delete, delete.

我昨天收到一封邮件，发件人是Deer Allen，来自Index Ventures。

I get some email yesterday, Deer Allen at Index Ventures.

我可不是艾伦啊。

It's like, Well, I'm not Alan.

我又不在指数资本工作。

I don't work at Index Ventures.

删了。

Delete.

我很庆幸这个人把我的名字搞错了，不然我真没法直接删掉。

And I'm very grateful that this person messed up my name because I could just delete that.

要是我收到一千封邮件，你就得这么想：邮箱其实是个对所有人开放的待办事项清单。

Whereas if I get a thousand emails, like the best way of thinking about an email inbox is it's a to do list that has right access for the public.

是的。

Yeah.

没错。

Right.

谁都能够发进来，现在还能量身定制内容。

It's like anybody can get in and now anybody can personalize.

打电话也是同样的道理。

Same thing for phone calls.

那我们该怎么办呢？

Like, what do we do?

而且看起来，加密货币背后还有很多东西。

And then it seems like there's a lot behind crypto.

所以我才提到哈希现金，它最初是用来防止垃圾邮件的。

That's why I mentioned hashcash because it was originally intended to stop spam.

是的。

Yeah.

你觉得人工智能和加密货币之间有重叠吗？

So do you think there's overlap between AI and crypto?

我知道你有这种看法。

I know you do.

那跟我们说说吧。

So tell us about that.

对，我觉得这确实是从AI引发的问题开始的。

Yeah, so I do think it starts with the problems that AI causes.

其实有一天半夜我突然惊醒，心想，天哪，肯定有人要搞个Zoom会议。

And actually one of the first thing I woke up in the middle of the night one day and I was like, oh my God, somebody's gonna go on a Zoom.

对方会用AI模拟我的声音，然后让我财务团队把五亿美元转到尼日利亚，那可就麻烦大了。

It's gonna be AI me and they're gonna tell my finance team to wire like $500,000,000 to Nigeria and that's gonna be a problem.

接着我们就意识到，得从硬件层面入手，把访问权限的根源控制住。

And then we're like, okay, everything's hardware, root of access.

别轻信我说的任何话，除非上面有我的加密签名之类的东西。

Don't believe anything from me unless it's got my cryptographic key on it, all that kind of thing.

所以我早就料到这些问题会冒出来。

So I knew these problems were coming.

它们现在来得太快了。

They're coming so fast now.

我觉得大概可以分成几类情况。

So I think there's kind of several categories of things.

首先是，你到底是人还是机器人？

First is just, are you a human or are you a bot?

我觉得不管是在社交媒体、约会软件，还是视频通话里，大家都会特别想知道：我对面说话的到底是真人吗？

Like, I think everybody is going to really, really want to know that, be it social media, a dating app, a Zoom call, like anything you wanna know, am I talking to an actual human?

我能证明自己是真人吗？

Like, okay, can I prove that I'm a human being?

然后，我还能证明我就是我本人吗？

And then can I prove that I'm me?

再然后，我能为内容签名吗？

And then can I sign content?

我怎么知道这事儿是真的？

Like, how do I know it's true?

我家人经常发给我一些AI生成的视频，还都以为是真拍的。

Like, there needs to be a distinction between I get so many AI videos sent to me from my family that they think are not AI videos.

他们总会问：这事儿真的发生过吗？

They're like, did this really happen?

我就说，其实你可以问问Grok，它现在在这方面还挺在行的。

And I'm like, no, you could actually ask Grock and it's pretty good at that right now.

但我觉得，Grok已经快到连它自己都快分辨不清的地步了。

But I think, you know, like Grock's getting to the point where it can barely figure it out.

总有一天，AI会彻底分不清什么是AI生成的内容。

And I think at some point it won't be able to figure it out or AI will not be able to tell what's an AI.

所以唯一的办法，就是得给每一段内容加上一个密码学层面的强认证，明确标注：没错，这是我制作的，或者这段视频真的是马尔科·鲁比奥在发表演讲。

So the only way is you're gonna have to have something, some cryptographically strong indication assigned piece of content that says, okay, yeah, I made this or this is like really a video of me, Marco Rubio giving a speech.

这不是别人伪造出来的。

This isn't something that somebody faked.

而且还得有个权威的来源来确认这个真实性。

And then there needs to be a source of that truth.

那你会相信谁来告诉你真相呢？

Who are you going to trust for the truth?

你会相信谷歌吗？

Are you going to trust Google?

你愿意相信Meta吗？

Are you going trust Meta?

你愿意相信美国政府吗？

Are you going to trust the US government?

我觉得你更该信任区块链所依赖的数学和博弈论机制。

I think you want to trust the kind of mathematical game theoretic properties of the blockchain.

所以我认为，这将成为基础设施中非常关键的一部分。

So I think that's going to be just a very, very important part of the infrastructure.

接着就涉及到欺诈问题了。

And then you get into fraud.

你怎么确定一个人是不是公民，才能给他发钱？

And how do you know somebody is a citizen to get them money?

大家都在说，不如搞全民基本收入吧。

Everybody's talking about, well, let's do UBI.

这主意不错。

Well, great.

但当我们实施刺激计划时，发现政府在把钱发到老百姓手里这方面特别糟糕。

But when we did the stimulus program, we found out that the government is very bad at getting money to people.

我不确定具体数字，但根据不同的统计，大概有四千五百亿美元被骗走了。

I don't know, was like, depending on the numbers you read, it's somewhere around $450,000,000,000 got stolen.

所以真正需要的是，每个人都要有一个能收钱的地址。

So what you really need is everybody needs an address where you can send them money.

我觉得这本质上是个加密货币的问题。

And so I think that's a crypto problem.

最后一个问题，人工智能怎么成为经济主体？

And then finally, how does an AI become an economic actor?

比如说，我作为一个人工智能，怎么赚钱？

Like how do I make money as an AI?

别人怎么给我转账？

How does somebody send me money?

如果我不是人类，能不能当商户，收信用卡付款？

Like, can I be a merchant, a credit card merchant, if I'm not a human?

我不这么认为。

I don't think so.

我觉得这其实挺难的。

Like, I think that's actually kind of hard.

而且，就算真要搞，也不是合适的基础设施。

And it's probably not the kind of right infrastructure anyway.

所以你需要一个在互联网上的基础工具。

And so you need a bare instrument on the internet.

这些AI要成为经济主体，就得有互联网上的钱。

You need internet money for these AIs to be economic actors.

我觉得加密货币很可能就是这个解决方案。

And I think that's very likely to be crypto.

所以我认为，AI催生了加密领域很多新的机会。

So I think there are many opportunities in the crypto space that have been generated by AI.

对，这感觉就像老话说的：地方太挤了，都没人去了。

Yeah, because it feels like it's this old Yogi Berra saying it's so crowded, nobody goes here anymore.

进入那个时代，首先得问一个问题：你是不是真人？

Like entering that era because number one is, are you a real person?

但问题是，现在像CoWork这么厉害，或者干脆说OpenClaw，你直接说你是真人就行。

But the problem is that, you know, co work is so good right now that or, you know, open claw, I just say you are a real person.

你以前是真人，但现在你的身份信息被机器在用了。

You were a real person, but now your your addresses are being used by a machine.

对啊。

Yeah.

对吧？

Right?

所以验证码根本没意义了。

So captchas don't make any sense.

字幕和

Captions and

设备。

apparatus.

什么是验证码？

What is a Caption?

对吧？

Right?

所以解决问题的关键，似乎在于某种经济机制和博弈论。

So it feels like the solution lies in kind of economics somehow and game theory.

没错。

Yes.

是的。

Yeah.

还有这一点。

And that too.

对。

Right.

没错。

Right.

对。

Right.

你是打算说，我觉得Hashcash这个想法又变得相关了？

Like, are you gonna just have to Oh, maybe like I think Hashcash is kind of a relevant idea again.

是的。

Yeah.

完全没错。

No, totally.

那我们不如聊聊，你认为风险投资未来会走向哪里？

So maybe why don't we talk about where you think venture capital is going?

我提到这个，是因为马克说过，将来所有工作都会消失，只剩下风险投资这一项工作，结果被人批评是自利之词。

And I mentioned this because Mark got some crap for saying, you know, all the jobs will go away except for one job of venture capital, which was seen as a self serving comment.

但替他辩护的话，我觉得部分原因在于这本来就是一个非确定性的问题。

But in his defense, I will say it's partially because it's a nondeterministic problem.

是的。

Yeah.

没错。

Right.

说白了，你首先是在赌这个人，你得相信这位创业者真能拉来人力、资金和客户。

It's like, all right, you're betting on an entrepreneur first and foremost, and you want to know that this entrepreneur, as I like to say, can materialize labor capital and customers.

你不能光靠跑个算法，我的意思是，也许能行，但这方面的数据实在太少了。

And you can't just like, you know, run an algorithm on, I mean, maybe you can, but there's just not a lot of data out there.

这事儿特别特别难。

It's very, very hard to do.

所以这就是为什么，除了AI，人与人之间的关系大概还是会继续存在。

So that's the logic by which, and also just personal relationships in general will probably survive AI.

如果真有风险投资人，那也就意味着创业者这个角色依然存在。

If there's a venture capitalist, then that kind of assumes there's an entrepreneur job now.

对，没错，确实如此。

Yes, yes, that is true.

这需要

Takes It's

没有一些风险投资，想当风险投资人确实挺难的，如果你特别不擅长的话。

kind of hard to be a venture capitalist without some venture Yeah, if you're very bad,

你或许可以只管筹钱，却从不真正投资出去，我想。

you could just raise money and never allocate it, I guess.

不过，你觉得现在的风险投资行业整体是什么样子？

But I guess what do you think the world of venture capital looks like kind of today?

我们公司内部已经做了很多努力，试图全面拥抱人工智能。

We've obviously done a lot of things internally as a firm to try to embrace AI like very, very fully.

但五年、十年后，考虑到白领工作可能发生的巨大变化，情况会怎样？

But now five years, ten years from now, just given what's potentially gonna happen to white collar work?

确实很复杂，因为你得回看上一次类似的转型，也就是工业革命时期。

Yeah, it's really tricky because you kinda go back to the last transition like this, which was kind of the transition to the industrial revolution.

那时候的铁路和汽车行业的风险投资人，最终都变成了摩根大通、高盛这样的机构。

So kind of the venture capitalists of the railroads and the automobiles and so forth ended up becoming JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, etcetera.

他们最后都转型成了银行。

So they ended up becoming banks.

部分原因在于这一切发生得太快了。

Some of the reason for that was just how fast that materialized.

我记得上世纪30年代，有百分之二十的美国工人在汽车业工作，这跟今天的情况比起来简直不可思议。

So I think in the 30s, like 20% of American workers worked for the auto industry, which is like spectacular compared to what it is today.

所以工业革命初期的情况，跟我们现在在风险投资领域看到的很像，那时候有几百家汽车公司。

And so things in the industrial revolution kind of started out very much like we are today in venture capital where there were whatever 300 auto companies and so forth.

后来在美国，行业迅速整合，只剩下几家巨头。

And then it consolidated very hard into in The US, the big three and so forth.

然后那些早期的风险投资者就往上走，跟这些大公司绑在了一起。

And then the kind of venture capitalists went upstream with the companies.

我觉得这是一种可能的前景：未来会剩下极少数超级巨头，它们几乎掌控一切。

I think that's one scenario where like, okay, there's gonna be a small number of very gigantic companies and they're gonna own everything and so forth.

还有一种可能是，这些公司变得非常庞大之后，我们终于触及了智能发展的极限。

There's another kind of future where it's like, okay, they got really big and then we've kind of finally hit the asymptote on this intelligence idea.

它们的智能水平也就到此为止了。

And like they're smart as they're going to be or whatever.