人工智能将如何改变2026年的软件：四大预测

让我们来看看2026年的预测。

Let's get into our 2026 predictions.

我认为AI的进步仍然非常迅速，我们现在所处的位置与一年前相比简直令人难以置信。

I think AI progress is still really fast, and it's kind of mind blowing where where we are now versus where we were a year ago.

我认为到2026年底时，情况依然会如此。

And I think that will be the case in at the end of 2026.

我想我们会坐在这里说：哇，实际上进步大得多。

I think we'll be sitting here and be like, wow, it's, actually a lot better.

而世界和AGI——无论你怎么定义它——都比我们想象的要复杂和困难得多。

And the world and AGI, however you define that, is a lot more complicated and hard than we thought.

我们不会在2027年拥有AGI。

And we will not have AGI in 2027.

我认为，大部分情况下，如果你是一名工程师，想将AI融入你的工作流程，但又不想重新发明软件工程的技能，那么你将长期拥有立足之地和工作机会。

I think for the most part, if you are an engineer who wants to incorporate AI into your process but doesn't want to reinvent the skill of software engineering, there's going to be a home and a job for you for a very long time, actually.

2024年，像达里奥和萨姆·阿尔特曼这样的大型AI公司首席执行官们曾表示，2025年将是智能代理之年。

The big AI CEOs like Dario and Sam Altman in 2024 said that 2025 would be the year of agents.

确实如此。

And it really was.

我们真的做到了。

Like, we got there.

我们完成了。

We did it.

我想萨姆大概一年前说过，距离实现还不到一千天，也就是大约两年后。

I think Sam said, like, it's less than a thousand days away, maybe, a year ago, so that's in two years.

而现在他们的时间表已经调整了。

And now their timelines have shifted.

对于不了解的人，布兰登是我们Every公司的无畏COO。

For people who don't know, Brandon is our fearless COO at Every.

没错。

It's true.

它

It's

真的。

true.

我非常兴奋能做这一期节目。

I'm super psyched to do this episode.

我很高兴能和布兰登一起做这期节目，同时也非常期待回顾2025年，并对2026年做出一些预测。

I'm psyched to do it with Brandon and also just psyched to get to reflect on 2025 and make some predictions for 2026.

2025年对我们来说就是这样的一年。

2025 was just like it was the year for us.

这是我们的突破之年。

It was it was this breakout year.

如果你看看我们的收入图表，会发现特别有意思，因为我们这个生意已经做了六年了。

And if you look at our our like revenue chart, it's so interesting because we're six years into this business.

前四五个月，收入直线飙升。

The first four or five months, it was straight up into the right.

我们当时心想：这太棒了。

And we were like, This is fucking amazing.

这是生意。

This is business

那这个生意是什么？

And what was what was that business?

它其实是一系列通讯简报的合集。

It was like a it was a bundle of newsletters.

当时就是人们专门订阅这些通讯简报。

And so it was just people just subscribing specifically for newsletters.

我们会不断往合集中添加新的通讯简报，然后用户数量就增长了。

We would add new newsletters to the bundle and it would grow.

这发生在新冠疫情刚开始的时候。

It was like at the beginning of COVID.

所以我们觉得，这太棒了。

And so we were like, this is amazing.

我们就要发财了。

We're going be rich.

然后，接下来的四年半到五年左右，基本上一直处于平稳状态。

And then basically for like another four and a half, five years, it was just like more or less flat.

如果你拉远看，确实基本持平，这很困难。

Like, if you really zoom out, it was more or less flat, which was difficult.

期间有很多次看似要好转的假象，有时看起来在变好，接着又变差，或者就一直原地踏步。

And there are there are a lot of like false starts and moments like where it looked like it was getting better and then it was getting worse or just say to say the same.

我认为，年复一年，还是有轻微的增长。

And I think like year over year, it did kind of grow a little bit.

但就所有实际目的而言，从收入角度来看，业务上根本没有取得进展。

But like for all intents and purposes, like there was no progress made in the business from just a revenue perspective.

而今年，我们彻底扭转了趋势。

And then this year, it's just like we just totally bent the curve.

特别是从六月左右开始，我们的业务规模几乎翻了一倍。

Specifically starting in like, I think starting in June, we basically doubled the business.

所以我们现在的月经常性收入大约是15万美元。

So we're at like about we're about 150 ks MRR.

我们在六月的时候大约在六十几到七十几之间。

And we were at, I think, in the sixties, like mid sixties to seventies starting in June.

所以一定发生了什么特别重大的事情。

So there's just something like really big happened.

看着这个经历了五年孕育期的东西突然开始爆发，真是太有趣了。

And it's so fun to watch this thing that has been in this gestational period for five years, like suddenly start to break out.

我想这是我们第一次举办爪码训练营吗？

Well, I think it was our was it our first Clawed Code Camp

是在六月吗？

in June?

那是一个转折点。

That was one.

我认为老实说，六月的时候，我们真正打造出了一个能让人们订阅的引擎。

I think honestly, I think what happened was in June, we really had built this engine that was ready to get people to subscribe.

所以我们有了通讯简报，还有几款不同的软件应用上市。

So basically, we had the newsletter and then we a couple of different software apps in market.

所以我认为我们在六月推出了Quora。

So I think we had launched Quora in June.

我认为Quora是在六月推出的。

I think Quora was June.

那是在六月。

That was in June.

然后Quora是我们的人工智能邮件助手。

Then Quora is our AI email assistant.

我们有Sparkle。

We had Sparkle.

我们有一个名为Spyro的版本，那是我们的AI代笔工具。

We had a version of Spyro, which is our AI ghostwriter.

我想那时我们还没有Monologue，但已经有三款产品上市了。

And then I don't think we had Monologue yet, but we had three products in market.

因此，这是一个非常充实的订阅服务，你支付一笔费用，就能获得你所创造的一切。

And so it was this really meaty subscription because you pay one price, you get access to everything you make.

但我们确实需要一些时刻来重新向业务界介绍自己。

But we needed like a couple of moments to almost reintroduce ourselves to the business.

于是我们借Quora的发布时刻完成了这一点。

And so we had that launch moment with Quora.

我们举办了云代码训练营，这基本上是云代码开始兴起的时候。

We did a Cloud Code Camp, which is like basically that was like when Cloud Code was starting to break out.

我们注意到了这一趋势，并开始为订阅用户举办名为云代码训练营的实时网络研讨会。

We sort of noticed it and we started to do these live webinars called Cloud Code Camps for subscribers.

但最重要的是，我上了伦尼的播客，那是在六月。

But the big thing was I went on Lenny's podcast and that was like in June.

那是一个关键时刻，让人们重新审视了Quora能提供什么以及你能从中获得什么。

And that was one of those moments where it was like, oh, I think it reset some of people's expectations about what every is and what you can get from it.

因此，那个月我们增长了20%，此后一直保持这种态势。

And and so we grew like 20% that month and it has just like basically been that way since then.

那个月我们的增长率达到了22.63%，此前一直稳定在15%左右

We grew 22.63% that month after consistently growing between 15% for

年？

years?

好吧，这里有一件非常有趣的事。

Well, here's here's what's really interesting.

人们应该知道，我们大约从……让我想想，开始每月增长5%左右。

What people should know is we started growing like about 5% month over month starting in like, maybe let me see.

我们来看看这个。

Let's look at this.

我们大约从2024年5月开始，每月增长从几个百分点跃升至25%左右。

It's like we started growing about like a couple percent month over month between like 25% month over month starting in May 2024.

实际上，增长就是从那时开始的。

That's actually when the growth

还有其他什么曲线发生了变化？

What curve else happened?

布兰登加入了。

Brandon joined.

现在你能清楚地看到，

Now you can really see,

只要看一下日期，我就知道，自从布兰登加入后，曲线就开始持续向上攀升。

just sort of see the date so that I joined once Brandon joined, it just the curve like started to consistently bend up.

它开始上升了。

It was like starting to go up.

因此，我认为当时业务已经开始围绕我们共同开始构建的这一切进行重组。

And so I think the business at that point was starting to reconfigure around this whole thing that we started to build together.

然后它需要一个契机来催化并点燃它。

Then it needed a moment to catalyze it and light it on fire.

我认为那就是莱尼的时刻。

I think that was the Leni moment.

而那之后有趣的是，它一直稳定地交付成果。

And what's been interesting after that is it has consistently delivered.

所以在莱尼播客之后，我们每个月至少增长了10%。

So after the Lenny podcast, we've grown at least 10% each month.

从那以后，我们进行了多次其他发布。

We've had a bunch of other launches since then.

但我认为最重要的是，人们头脑中对“每样东西”到底是什么的认知发生了转变——从通讯稿变成了一个合集。

But I do think the biggest thing was a rejiggering in people's brains of what every actually is from a newsletter to a bundle.

而我们甚至还没到那里。

And we're not even there yet.

那将是2026年真正要聚焦的核心。

Like, that's going to be what 2026 is really, really about.

完全正确。

Totally.

而且我觉得，是的，它也真正变成了一家公司。

And I think yeah, it sort of it sort of became a real company too.

所以我们在年初的时候，大概只有五个人左右。

So we were I think at the at the beginning of the year, we were like maybe five people or something

差不多吧。

like that.

五个人

Five people

一直都是。

the whole time.

而现在我们已经有将近20人了。

And now we're almost 20.

而且还有一个庞大的咨询业务，这个业务甚至没有计入月经常性收入（MRR）。

That has been that is also And a huge consulting business, a huge consulting business that's not even counted in the MRR.

这真的非常有趣。

And that's honestly been it's been so fun.

是的。

Yeah.

因为我觉得我们正在真正弄清楚什么是AI优先的公司。

Because I think we're really figuring out what it means to be an AI first business ourselves.

然后我们能把这些经验带给读者、使用我们产品的用户，我们为自己开发工具，再卖给订阅者，也推向大型企业咨询业务。

And then we get to bring that to readers, to like people who use our products, we build tools for ourselves that we can sell to sell to subscribers and bring it to big companies in the consulting business.

这简直是我做过的最令人兴奋的事。

And it's just like it's the most exciting thing I've ever done.

用一个词来形容2025年会是什么？

What's one word to describe 2025?

我脑海里冒出的词是‘火热’。

The word that came to my head was fire.

我不知道。

I don't know.

是好的那种吗？

In a good way

还是坏的？

or bad?

是那种好的火热。

Is that like In a good way.

好的火热。

In a good fire.

我们点火了。

We lit the engines.

对吧？

Right?

所以，引擎点着了。

And so, like The engines are lit.

升空。

Lift off.

嗯。

Yeah.

我们就说‘升空’这个词吧。

Let's say lift off is is the word.

我也不确定。

I don't even know.

嗯。

Yeah.

我想是吧。

I guess so.

嗯。

Yeah.

我真的觉得我们根本就没启动引擎。

I really think we've, like I don't even think the engine is on.

我觉得我们只是给引擎做了预热。

I think we've, like, primed the engine.

而2026年才是我们真正开始，从宏观角度看，我们只是刚把它挂上一挡。

And 2026 is gonna be where we really, like, you know, in the grand scheme of every, we're just going to be putting it into first.

我们会以为自己已经挂到五挡了。

We're going to think we're putting it into fifth.

这些曲线的特点就是，每次你达到一个新的拐点，旧的曲线看起来就特别小、特别差。

That's the thing about these curves is every time you hit a new inflection point, the old curve looks really small and shitty.

所以我觉得，我们现在所处的这个阶段，觉得这太棒了，我完全同意2026年会是这样。

And so I think right now the one we're on, we're like, this is amazing, I definitely agree in 2026.

我们一直以来都是从底层做起，做通讯简报，写我们感兴趣的内容，开发各种工具，构建我们自己需要的工具。

The thing that we're going to do Every has been this very bottoms up place for a long time where we're doing the newsletter and we're writing whatever we're interested in and we're building tools and we're sort of building whatever tools come to our head that we kind of need ourselves.

我认为我们正在打造一个更加统一的平台。

And I think we're starting to build a much more cohesive platform.

所以我们请来了一位非常有才华的人。

So we brought in someone really talented.

他的名字叫威利，正在开发Every平台，实现单点登录功能。

His name is Willie, who is building every platform where have single sign on.

这样你就可以登录我们任何一个应用。

So you can log in to any one of our apps.

现在我们实现了统一的计费系统。

Have now we have unified billing.

因此你不需要为每个应用单独输入信用卡信息。

So you don't have to enter credit card information for each one of the apps.

但这只是基础工作。

But that's sort of like the groundwork.

明年我们要构建一个统一的记忆和上下文层，可以把所有你关心的信息和你的个人特质汇集到一个地方，所有应用和内容在与你互动时都能考虑到这些信息。

And what we're doing next year is we're going to build this like unified memory and context layer where we have we have a bunch of basically we can collect everything, everything that you care about and who you are into one place and all of the apps and all the content can take that into account as they work with you.

这将带来一种跨所有服务的更加个性化和定制化的体验。

It's like a it's a much more custom personalized experience across all the different services.

我认为我们明年面临的最大挑战之一是，我把Every描述为我所知道的最真诚的

Think the biggest one of the biggest challenges for us next year will be, I describe Every as like the most genuine

工作环境。

work environment that I know of.

我们构建的东西，都是我们每个人觉得有趣的东西。

The things that we build are the things that like any one of us is like, this is interesting.

我需要它。

I need it.

这很酷。

It's cool.

没错。

Yeah.

然后我们把它做出来。

And then we build it.

这对我们非常有帮助，我们可以做出酷炫的东西，然后写出来分享。

And that has like, served us really well, we get to build cool things, but then write about it.

我们打造的是自己需要的东西。

We build things that we need.

明年我们将开始制定真正的战略，以前我们并没有战略，但一直基于真正有趣的东西来推进。

And we're gonna start to have a real strategy next year, which we haven't not had, but we've been doing it based off of what's genuinely interesting.

我认为一个巨大的挑战将是：持续保持真诚，同时制定战略，明确我们想吸引的用户画像，而不丢失我们单纯想做出酷炫东西的原始动力。

And it's gonna be I think one of the big challenges will be continually being genuine and also having a strategy and having personas of the types of people that we wanna attract towards every, and not losing that genuine motivation that we have to just make cool shit.

我同意。

I agree.

对你来说是什么？

What was for you?

这实际上是我第一次带领20人的团队经营企业。

This is actually this is the first time I've run a business with 20 people.

但你之前经营过一家公司，上一家公司你做到了大约100名员工，我记得。

But you've run a business, your last business, you got to about like 100 employees, I think.

100人，没错。

100, yeah.

从20人增长到50人的过渡感觉怎么样？

What was the transition like from 20 to 50?

你有

You have

每当员工人数翻倍时，都需要重新构建整个业务。

to rebuild the business every time the number of people doubles.

我们确实感受到了这一点。

And we felt that.

我的意思是，我们从5人到10人时就已经经历过一次，现在我们到了20人。

I mean, we've done that a little bit from five to 10, and now we're at 20.

我们刚刚彻底调整了所有东西。

And we just went through and changed everything.

所以每次业务翻倍，它都会发生变化。

So every time the business doubles, it changes.

你必须从运营角度重新思考一切如何运作，有时甚至整个战略都要调整。

You have to rethink operationally how everything works and just sometimes the whole strategy.

然后你就需要让每个人把他们的工作做得非常好。

And then you just sort of need to have people do their job really, really well.

当你规模较小时，每个人都在做很多事情，因为一个人负责客服，一个人负责设计。

And when you're smaller, everybody's sort of doing everything because you have one person doing support and one person doing design.

但随着规模扩大，我的意思是，有时候你需要让设计师也帮忙做客服工作。

And then as you scale, what I mean by that is like, sometimes you need the design person to also help with support.

随着规模继续扩大，人们开始只做非常具体的事情。

And, and then as you scale, like people start to just do very specific things.

我发现，要保持企业文化持续下去是个真正的挑战，要让每个人都觉得对公司充满热情，并且觉得自己在其中扮演着非常重要的角色，因为你最终会雇一些人，他们只是觉得‘我就是给这家公司做客服的’。

And I found it that, like, it's a real challenge to keep the culture going where everyone feels, like, equally as excited about the company and, like, they play a very big role in it because you end up just hiring some people where they're just like, I just do support for this company.

对。

Right.

你知道吗？

You know?

是啊。

Yeah.

是啊。

Yeah.

因此，保持对构建事物和探索新事物的真诚热情，正是我们的独特之处，也是我们扩张时面临的最大挑战。

And so keeping that genuine interest in building stuff and exploring things is what makes us special and will be the the big challenge as we scale.

我完全同意。

I totally agree.

但我真的不觉得我们会，我觉得明年我们会招聘，但不会招很多。

But I I don't really think we're gonna like, I think we'll hire next year, but I don't think we're gonna hire a ton.

关键是，保持团队规模小。

Like, the whole thing is, like, keep it small.

希望如此。

I hope so.

是的。

Yeah.

我希望如此。

I hope so.

因为我喜欢，这太棒了。

Because I love just It's amazing.

我喜欢我们所有一起工作的人。

I love all the people that we work with.

每次我参加一个会议，都会想：哇，这些人都这么酷、有趣，有着丰富的背景和见解。

And every time I go into a meeting, like, wow, all these people are so cool and interesting and have interesting backgrounds and stuff to say.

我真的不希望这种状况改变。

And I really don't want that to change.

而且我认为你不需要再担心了，因为人工智能让我们能够用同样数量的人实现规模化。

And I don't think you need to anymore because AI is allowing us to scale the same number of people, essentially.

是的。

Yeah.

说到这个，我们来聊聊2026年的预测吧。

Speaking of which, let's get into our twenty twenty six predictions.

我知道你有一些悲观的看法，

I know you have some doom or takes,

我确实有几个悲观的预测。

which I got a couple doom takes.

这很好，因为我通常都很阳光乐观，所以这样能形成很好的平衡。

Is good because I'm I'm usually, like, pretty sunny and optimistic, so it'll be a good good balance.

我们的制片人蕾切尔说，我们要来一招唱红脸白脸的套路。

Rachel, our producer, said that we're gonna do a good cop, bad cop routine.

所以你想先开始吗？

So do wanna start

我不想只做唱红脸的，

with I don't wanna only wanna do a good

cop, bad

cop, bad

我先来一个积极的吧，没错。

I'll I'll start with a positive Yeah.

预测。

Take.

这其实源于我们之前的一次对话，那就是在你正在使用的应用中，到今年年底之前，智能代理开发就会成为现实。

And and this is actually inspired by a conversation that we had, which is that agentic development will be maybe by the end of the year inside of the app that you're actually using.

你跟我提过这个，简直让我大吃一惊。

You said that to me, and it completely blew my mind.

而我们现在已经做到了。

And we're already doing that.

我的意思是，现在在Every应用里，当我们开发产品时，如果有什么功能出问题了，你可以直接发私信。

So what I mean by that is inside of Every right now, when we build a product, if something isn't working, you can DM.

Dan目前正在开发这样一个工具。

Dan's building a tool that does this right now.

你可以给这个工具发私信，或者在Discord频道里提到它，说‘我想要这个功能’或者‘这个bug出问题了’，它就会自动写代码并提交一个拉取请求。

You can DM this tool or mention it in a in a Discord channel and say, hey, I want this feature or this bug is broken, and it will write some code and then submit a PR for it.

所以这就像在 Discord 里工作，但下一步是，我可以在应用本身内完成这个操作，它能以不会破坏系统的方式编写代码，然后自动重启应用，加入我想要的具体功能。

So it's sort of like working inside of Discord, but the next step of this is that I can do it inside of the app itself, and then it can, like, write the code in a way that doesn't break it and then actually relaunch the app itself with a feature that I might specifically want.

这感觉真的特别难实现，但又似乎不可避免。

It just feels really fucking hard to do, but kind of inevitable.

是的。

Yeah.

不，我同意。

No, I agree.

我觉得我一直以来谈论和思考的方式是，我们已经到达了 2025 年这个节点，编码代理已经非常强大了。

I think the way that I've been talking about it and thinking about it is we reached this place at the 2025 where coding agents are really good.

它们写的代码大部分都能正常运行，而去年还做不到这一点。

And mostly the code they write works, which was not the case last year.

你或许能走得挺远，但最终总会陷入一堆错误和 bug 里。

You could get pretty far, but eventually you get stuck into a bunch of errors and bugs.

所以如果你不是专业开发者，系统就会直接崩溃。

And so if you're not a professional developer, it would just break.

而现在，你可以借助Opus，尤其是Opus 4.5，几乎可以无限期地持续下去，特别是当你使用我们复合工程插件，并真正进行规划和思考这类事情时。

And now you can kind of, with Opus, especially with Opus 4.5, you can kind of keep going forever almost, especially if you're using stuff like our compound engineering plug in and you're actually like having it planned and thinking all that kind of stuff.

这真的非常好。

It's like it's really good.

所以我认为，这从根本上改变了软件工程，也从根本上改变了应用程序的构建方式以及由谁来构建。

So I think that that fundamentally changes software engineering and it also fundamentally changes how apps are built and who they are built by.

因此，我一直在探索一种新的软件架构理念，这种理念深受云代码的启发，我称之为智能体原生架构。

And so I've been kind of playing with this new idea for how software is architected that is very inspired by cloud code that I've been calling agent native architectures.

在智能体原生架构中，第一层是指应用程序内用户能做的任何事情，智能体也能做到。

And in an agent native architecture, the first level of an agent native architecture is anything inside of an app that the user can do, the agent can do.

在云代码中，你能做的任何事情——比如我想去某个地方——云都能做到。

So in Cloud Code, anything you can do in Cloud Code where you're like, oh, I want to please go, you know, or in Cloud Code, it's anything you can do on your computer, Cloud can do.

所以，如果你想修改文件、写入文件、运行服务器等等，云都能完成这些操作。

So like if you want to change files or, you know, write a file or run a server or whatever, Cloud can do all those things.

但目前我们使用的大多数智能体还做不到这一点。

And mostly, most of the agents that we use right now, that's not the case.

所以，如果你进入我们其中一个应用，比如Quora，你能够与之对话的代理，其实有很多在Quora应用内你能做的事情，代理本身却无法完成。

So if you go into, for example, one of our apps, Quora, the agent that you can talk to, there's many things you can do inside of the Quora app that the agent can't do itself.

其他许多聊天代理，比如聊天应用，情况也是一样。

And same thing with a lot of other sort of chat agents, like chat apps, basically.

因此，我认为代理原生开发的第一步是：你能做的，代理也能做。

And so I think the first step of agent data development is anything you can do, the agent can do.

这赋予了应用程序强大的能力和灵活性，因为你只需告诉代理去执行各种任务。

And that gives this power and flexibility to the application because you can just tell the agent to go do stuff.

比如，我想更改我的设置。

So like, you know, oh, I want to change my settings.

对吧？

Right?

我现在一直在用Atlas浏览器做这种事情。

I've been doing that all the time now with the Atlas browser.

这使得每个应用都变得有点像代理原生的应用。

It makes kind of makes every app a little bit agent native.

所以经常有人请求我：天啊，你能更新这个设置吗？或者把我加到这个团队里之类的？

So get requests all the time where people are like, oh my God, like, can you update this, like, setting or like, add me to this team or whatever?

我不想费劲去弄懂这个界面。

I'm like, I don't want to figure out this interface.

我直接让Atlas帮我做就行了。

And I just ask Atlas to do it.

我认为每个应用中的每个代理都会具备这个第一层功能。

I think every app, like every agent in an app will have that first level.

第二层是应用程序代码所能做的任何事情。

Second level is anything that the code in the app can do.

因为有很多代码片段是用户自己无法触发的。

Because there's many pieces of code that the user cannot trigger themselves.

应用能做的任何操作，代理都能做。

Any piece of code that the app can do, the agent can do.

所以这涉及很多内容，比如在Quora中，用户其实无法自己生成简报，而简报是他们邮件的摘要。

So that's a lot of like So for example, in Quora, users can't really generate their briefs and briefs are the summaries of their emails.

最终，理想情况是代理应该能够以任何它想要的方式重新生成并重做整个简报和摘要，这可能是由用户触发，也可能是由开发者触发。

Eventually, what should happen is the agent should have the ability to regenerate and redo an entire brief and entire summary in whatever way that they want, maybe triggered by the user, maybe triggered by the developer.

第三点是，开发者能做的，代理也能做。

The third one is, yeah, anything a developer can do, the agent can do.

所以用户可以说：我想以这种方式自定义我的软件。

So the user can be like, I want to customize my software in this way.

代理会去提交这个请求。

The agent is going to go submit it.

也许这是一个会推送给所有人的修复补丁。

And maybe it's a bug fix that goes out to everyone.

或者，也许存在某种系统，让你可以拥有任何应用程序的专属自定义版本。

Or maybe there's maybe there's some system by which you can can just have your own custom version of any app.

我们已经在Every内部开始这样做了，而且看起来似乎正在逐步奏效。

And we're already starting to do this inside of every and it seems like it's sort of starting to work.

我只是觉得，这种做法将被广泛普及。

I just I think that that's going to be broadly distributed.

尤其是第一层，将在一年内成为一种广泛普及的范式，而目前除了Anthropic之外，几乎没有人谈论它。

Especially that first level is going to be a broadly distributed paradigm in a year that no one's really talking about right now except for Anthropic.

我认为Anthropic已经掌握了这一点，其他人将会

I think Anthropic has nailed this, everyone else is going

跟进。

be doing it.

我认为Notion在这方面也做得相当不错。

I think Notion is doing that pretty well, too.

我的意思是，你可以使用Notion AI创建几乎任何你在Notion中能创建的东西。

I mean, you can use the Notion AI to create almost anything that you would create in Notion.

是的，确实如此。

Yes, there are.

我认为他们也理解了这一点。

I think they also get it.

他们的思维方式非常正确，不是简单地把智能体粘贴到原本为人类协作设计的软件上。

They're like really thinking about this in the right way where it's not just software that's made for humans to collaborate that they've like pasted agents into.

这就像代理和人类在应用中都是平等的首要成员一样

It's like actually agents and humans are like first class citizens in

这个应用。

the app.

我继续说。

I'll keep going.

我的预测是什么？

What's my prediction?

让我看看。

Let me see.

我有个笔记文件。

I have a note file.

好的。

Okay.

哦，这个不错。

Oh, this is a good one.

我认为，设计师是人工智能时代下一个伟大的超级英雄，因为他们在这个世界中得到了独特的赋能——长期以来，设计师的强项在于他们拥有极佳的品味和对应用如何运作的清晰愿景。

I think that designers are the next big superheroes of the AI age, like they have been uniquely enabled in this world because forever designers have What they're good at is they have lots of taste and they have a vision for how they want an app to work.

但长期以来，他们一直面临这样的困境：我必须说服开发者为我实现这个功能。

And they've just bumped up against like, well, I have to convince this developer to do this for me for a long time.

我看到一个很好的例子，就是我们的创意总监卢卡斯，他现在已经变成了一台机器——他不仅是一位极具创造力的设计师和艺术指导，还能编写一些小应用，让自己工作得更高效。

And I just see so a good example is Lucas, our creative director inside of every he has turned into this machine where he's not only like this incredibly creative designer, art director kind of person, he's also like vibe coding little apps that let him do his work better.

我认为，有一类人就像卢卡斯一样，他们是高度富有创造力、视觉敏锐的人，过去因为不会编程而无法实现完整体验，而现在他们终于能够编程了。

And I just think there's like there's a whole class of people that are sort of like Lucas, where there are these highly creative, highly visual people who have been held back from making full experiences because they can't code that now are going be able to code.

由于编程变得廉价，能够打造出既美观、富有感染力又经过深思熟虑的体验，将变得极为重要。

And the stuff they can make, because code is cheap, being able to make a really beautiful, really evocative, well thought through experience is going be a huge deal.

我认为，所有这些设计师都将开始疯狂创作，一种全新的、极具吸引力的创造者形象即将诞生。

And I think all these designers are just going start going crazy and it's going to become this new archetype of a really interesting builder.

Cursor，我认为它已经在逐步接近这样的方向：你可以在 Cursor 中通过可视化方式完成前端更新。

Cursor, I mean, I think is already inching towards You can do front end updates inside of Cursor with like a visual medium.

我有点担心的是，我过去曾害怕使用终端。

I sort of think I get a little bit worried that like so I used to be afraid of the terminal.

很多人害怕

Like a lot of people are afraid of

终端。

the terminal.

听起来像是个吓人的词。

Like, it sounds like a scary word.

我在想，在Cursor里做设计，嗯。

And I kind of wonder if, like, doing design inside of Cursor Mhmm.

很多设计师会说：不。

A lot of designers will be like, no.

这让我觉得害怕。

I like, that's scary to me.

我碰不了代码。

Like, I can't touch the code.

我不想搞砸任何东西。

I don't wanna mess anything up.

所以我在想，明年这种情况会如何发展，世界上最好的设计师都会这么做，但你需要打造一个每个设计师都能使用的产品。

So I wonder how that will play out next year so that the best designers in the world will be doing this, but you need to build a product that every designer can access.

所以我在想他们会如何将其抽象化。

So I wonder how they'll abstract it.

Cursor，你知道的，如果他们想把市场从工程师扩展到设计师，他们可能需要将它从代码中抽象出来，这样普通人才不会因为接近代码而感到害怕。

The cursor, you know, if they want to expand their market away from just engineers to designers, like, they may need to abstract it away from the code so that, like, the average person doesn't get scared going near code.

接下来是什么？

What's next?

知道。

Know.

好的。

Okay.

我有一个。

I have one.

你有个热门观点。

You have a hot take.

我有点悲观的看法，就是我真的很担心，好吧。

I have a bit of a doomer take, which is that I am really worried that okay.

比如，我有一堆朋友，还有我妈妈，假设我妈妈也是我的朋友。

So, like, I just have a bunch of friends, my mom, let's say my mom, who's also my friend.

如果她在Instagram上看到什么，我就告诉你我具体想到的那个故事。

If she sees something on Instagram, and it's I'll tell you the exact story I'm thinking of.

她发给我一段视频，是关于一些大猩猩照顾它们孩子的。

She sent me a video of some gorillas that were taking care of their children.

这段视频的要点是：哇，大猩猩，它们真像人。

And the point of the video was like, Wow, gorillas, they're so human like.

看看它们是怎么照顾孩子的。

Look at the way they're taking care of their kids.

而且

And

看起来完全真实。

it looked totally real.

我妈妈发给我，说这太可爱了。

My mom sent it to me and was like, This is so cute.

我当时说：妈妈，这根本不是真的。

And I was like, Mom, that's just not real.

这是AI生成的。

That's AI.

但她就是不信我。

And she refused to believe me.

她说：你在说什么啊？

She was like, that's, you know, what are you talking about?

这可是真的。

This is real.

我觉得这真的很可怕，因为这些社交媒体公司——全部都是——在大力投入AI，却都不标注‘由AI生成’。

And I just think it's really scary that a lot of these social media companies, all of them, which are heavily invested in AI working, aren't putting made by AI as a thing.

我觉得这迟早会发生，如果不是在中期选举前，那也一定会在下一届总统大选前发生。

And I just think that that is going to be something that will have to happen, if not by the midterms, then by the next election year, presidential election.

但没错，我觉得中期选举会有点吓人，因为我觉得会出现深度伪造，以前这是个让人特别害怕的词，但现在没人提了。

But yeah, I think midterms are gonna be kind of scary because I think there's gonna be deepfakes, which used to be a really scary word and now nobody talks about.

没人再说深度伪造了。

Nobody says deepfake anymore.

所以具体来说是怎样的？我同意你的观点。

So what is the like specific So I agree with you.

我觉得这是个大问题，指出这一点是正确的。

I think this is a huge problem, and I think it's right to point it out.

你妈妈那个例子，居然不相信那是AI，我觉得特别有意思，因为对我来说，我一看就知道，但我知道我整天都在看这些东西，所以这很正常。

And that example of your mom, like, actually not believing it's AI is really interesting to me because for me, I look at it and I'm like, I I can tell, but I know that that's I look at this shit all day, so that makes sense.

那具体可怕的后果或观点是什么？

What's, like, the specific doom or take?

你觉得会怎样？

Like, what do you think

可怕的结果或观点是：这些东西会在选举周期中出问题，而这将成为导火索。

The doom or take is that shit's gonna go bad during an election cycle, and that's gonna be the inspiration.

但真正的灾难在于，它会对那个不得不制定规则来禁止的团队有利。

But the really doom or take is that it's going to go well for the team that then has to make the rule to not I see.

给内容打标签。

To label stuff.

你具体觉得会发生什么？

And what specifically do you think is going to happen?

会不会是他们伪造了一段政治家被抓到做某些事的视频？

Is it going to be like they're they're they come up with a video of a politician, like, getting caught, you know, doing something that they do?

还是说这太棒了。

Is it that you're Amazing.

就像那个P磁带，但却是真实的？

It's like the it's like the p tape, but, like, real?

是的。

Yes.

是的。

Yes.

我认为可怕的事情会发生，虚假视频会被制作出来。

I think that I think that scary stuff is going to happen where fake videos are made.

比如，'深度伪造'这个词的由来，就是人们制作出一些极其恶劣的视频，假装是他们自己做的那些事。

Like, know, the nature of the word deepfake came from, like, people doing, like, really grotesque things that, like, they didn't actually do.

但人工智能让这些视频看起来就像他们真的做过一样。

But AI made it look like they they did that.

是的。

Yeah.

我认为，现在只是有一层薄薄的屏障，阻止普通人制作这样的视频。

And I think that, like, we are just like so there's just like a thin wall that's blocking the average person from making videos like that.

是的。

Yeah.

如果你真的想做，我可以想象，虽然我从来没试过，但你很可能很容易就能做出非常糟糕的视频。

And if you really want to, you can like I've never tried, but you probably could easily go make like really messed up videos.

这种情况一定会发生。

And that is gonna happen.

100%。

100%.

所以我认为，我的悲观预测是，选举中会发生某些事情，那将触发某种由AI生成的标签。

So I think, like, that's my doom or take is something's gonna happen with elections that, like, that's that's that's what will trigger, you know, some sort of label that's like made with AI.

是的。

Yeah.

我还觉得另一件正在发生的事是迪士尼刚刚与OpenAI达成的交易，将迪士尼角色引入Sora，这真的会让我们所有人都逐渐习惯这种预期。

I also think another interesting thing that's happening is this deal that Disney just did with with OpenAI, Disney characters into into Sora, which is really just gonna like sort of chain train all of us to expect.

这有点令人困惑，因为许多迪士尼角色本来就不真实。

It's a little bit confusing because Disney characters, many of them aren't real anyway.

是的。

Yeah.

基本上。

Mostly.

基本上它们都不是，但我们就只是会

Mostly they're not But like, we're just going to