为何Opus 4.5刚成为最具影响力的人工智能模型

立即在framer.com/design免费开始创作，并使用优惠码Dan免费获得一个月的Framer Pro会员。

Start creating for free at framer.com/design and use the code Dan for a free month of Framer Pro.

网址是framer.com/design，促销代码是Dan。

That's framer.com/design and use the promo code Dan.

可能有适用规则和限制。

Rules and restrictions may apply.

现在，回到节目内容。

And now, back to the episode.

这很有趣。

It's interesting.

我确实在写作和编程时都经历过这种时刻，但我觉得我们正处于探索阶段——现在该做什么？

I've definitely I've had moments of that both on the writing side and on the coding side, but I think that we're so in the center of just figuring out, okay, what do we do now?

情况很快变成了：有太多事情要做。

That it has quickly shifted to like, there's so much to do.

所以...我想我对这种情绪体验很熟悉。

So so it's I think I'm familiar with the emotional experience.

嗯，是你选择跳进来的。

Well, you chose to jump in.

对吧？

Right?

你当时说，我要建立基础设施和社区来应对这一变革。

You're like, I'm gonna build infrastructure and community in order to address this change.

我们建了个很棒的办公室。

We built a lovely office.

你真该来看看，因为我们知道纽约市还没准备好迎接AI。

You should come visit literally because we know that New York City is not ready for AI.

我们就想，好吧。

We're like, okay.

至少得有个地方让人们能...我们一直在接待非营利组织和许多可能会被忽视的人，这样我们就能讨论这个问题。

Let's at least have a place where people can like and we've been having not for profits in and lots of folks who'd like are gonna get ignored so that we can talk about this.

所以我觉得这部分感觉真的很棒。

So I think that part feels really good.

我觉得这就像是发生了很多变化。

I think it's just like it's a lot of change.

比如，我们刚经历了GLP疫情，现在又遇到这个。

Like, we're coming on we got GLPs pandemic and now this.

写作对我来说也挺有趣的，因为我其实看到写作是因为，它不会替我写。

Writing is funny for me too because I'm like, I actually see the writing is because, like, it doesn't write for me.

我有点没法让它替我写作。

I I kinda don't get it to write for me.

它就是无法成为我。

It just it can't be me.

比如，我就是作为一个作家原本的样子。

Like, I'm I just am what I am as a writer.

但我看到很多不是作家的人，天啊，这对他们来说太棒了。

But I see a lot of people who aren't writers, and my god, it's good for them.

比如我就觉得，这让他们能接触到一种世界，进入一种以前没有的更正式的沟通方式。

Like and I I'm like, it gives them access to a world and and to kind of entree into a more formal style of communication that they didn't have before.

所以对我来说，写作本应是一种赋能。

And so, like, to me, writing is supposed to empower.

如果机器人能帮到你，那是好事。

And, like, if the robot helps you, that's good.

如果机器人替你思考，那就糟了。

If the robot thinks for you, that's bad.

所以

So

是啊。

Yeah.

我一直在尝试梳理，那些让我产生存在主义恐慌的时刻究竟是什么？

I think I've been trying to sort of process, like, okay, what are the what are what are those moments where I have that existential freak out?

那到底是什么感觉？

What is that like?

因为在这个过程中我有过好几次这样的体验。

Because I had that a few times sort of during this process.

每次我克服这种状态后，就会觉得：好吧，我之前肯定漏掉了什么，现在我正试着更新我的直觉或类比方式，以便更好地理解那些经历。

And each time I've once I got over it, felt like, okay, there there was something there that I missed, and I'm I'm trying to, like, update my intuition or my analogies for, like so I can understand those experiences better.

然后就会出现那个时刻——当下突然坍缩成过去，所有你曾经熟知的事物都显得陈旧不堪，你会想：接下来会怎样？

And there's that moment where the present sort of, like, collapses into the past, And everything that you used to know looks really old, you're like, what's next?

而我认为与之最匹配的直觉体验是：在我们掌握成熟的航海技术前，人们总以为海洋有边界，航行到边缘一切都会坠落。

And the intuitive experience that I think matches to this most closely is before we had really good sea travel, we used to think that if you if you went into the ocean, there would be like an edge that everything would fall off.

那里就是世界的尽头。

There'd be there's there's an edge of the world.

这在很多方面都是我们对抵达视界时情况的直觉认知。

And that's our intuitive notion in a lot of ways of what happens when you get to the horizon.

而当我们真正抵达视界时，却发现前方还有更多视界。

And what we found when we got to the horizon is that there's more horizons.

以我的经验来看，这很好地映射了我与AI相处的经历——每次遇到新事物时，我都惊呼'天啊，我来到世界尽头了'。

In my experience, I think that that maps pretty well onto my experience with AI is, like, each time encounter this new thing, I'm like, oh my god, I'm at the edge of the world.

那里就像悬崖边缘，仿佛下一步就会坠入深渊。

And there's like it's a cliff, it's just going to drop off.

而每次当我跨过地平线时，我都会惊叹：哇，这里有一片全新的领域——当然这并不意味着没有负面影响，也不意味着不存在需要解决的复杂社会问题。

And then each time I sort of step over the horizon, I'm like, woah, there's this whole new territory, which is not to say that there are no bad effects and and and there's there's not, like, complicated social issues to to work out.

但我想说的是，我已经学会捕捉这种'世界边缘'的直觉，并尝试用'可能根本没有边界'来更新这种认知。

But it is to say that I've learned to catch that edge of the world intuition and try and I've tried to update it with there's probably not an edge.

那里只有新的地平线。

There's just a new horizon.

这是个很好的视角。

That's a good way to look at it.

我同意这个观点。

I agree with that.

我认为人类本身不会改变。

I think for me, it doesn't I don't think human beings are gonna change.

我不确定社会是否会彻底重组。

I don't know if society will completely reorder itself.

尽管从某种角度看，它似乎正在尝试这样做，所以这部分很棘手。

Although in a way, it seems to be trying to, so that part's tricky.

但我觉得令人震惊的是，了解到人类消化变化有多么困难。

But I think what's wild to me is learning how hard it is for humans to metabolize change.

对我来说，让我大开眼界的时刻是上一次我有这种感觉，完全一模一样的感觉，是我的医生很早就让我使用Mounjaro的时候。

For me, the moment the one that blew my mind as the last time I felt this way, just like exactly like this was, my doctor put me on Mounjaro very early.

我当时确实需要它。

I needed it.

Mounjaro是什么？

What's Mounjaro?

它类似于Ozempic。

It's like Ozempic.

它是一种GLP-1类药物。

It's an it's a GLP one.

好吧。

Okay.

于是突然间，在终生无法减肥之后，我很快就减掉了大约70磅。

So suddenly, after a lifetime of not being able to lose weight, I lost like 70 pounds in a hurry.

我当时体型大得非常危险。

And I was very dangerously big.

我现在仍然相当庞大，但健康状况已经改变了。

I'm still pretty big, but like my health changed.

这是在我被灌输了一辈子‘事情就是这样运作的’观念之后。

And it was really after a lifetime of being told like, this is how this works.

这是唯一可行的方式。

This is the only way it works.

你只能通过手术解决。

You can only do surgery.

需要意志力等等。

There is willpower and so on.

所有这些社会体系中的规则，以及我从医生那里听到的说法，突然有一天全都失效了，这真的让人困惑。

So all these rules in this whole social system and things that I heard from doctors and it was one day they went, and it was really confusing.

作为一个成年男性，从‘这就是世界运行法则’的认知中走出来，确实令人非常困惑。

It was real I'm an adult man, and it was really confusing to go from this is the system of the world.

这就是体重的本质。

This is what weight is.

这就是肥胖，而这些是唯一能改变现状的方式。

This is what obesity is, and these are the only ways that things can change.

然后第二天却听说，实际上，这某种程度上是一种医学病症。

And then to hear the next day that, actually, it kinda was a medical condition.

哎呀。

Whoops.

接着意识到这将颠覆世界认知，彻底改变我们谈论身体的方式。

And then knowing that this would push through the world and this would change the way that we talk about our bodies completely.

而事实确实如此。

And it did.

就像，我当时就明白，哦，我们再也无法将这件事束之高阁了。

Like, I just like I knew in that moment, like, oh, we're not gonna put this back in the box.

这将变得截然不同。

This is gonna be very different.

人们对此会有非常强烈的看法。

People are gonna have very strong opinions about it.

奥普拉会做个特别节目，然后我们就开始了。

Oprah's gonna do a special, and here we go.

我对这件事也有同样的感觉。

And I feel that way about this.

不是我们不能适应这种变化，但仅仅一两年时间——也就是人们意识到只需在输入框里打字就能生成相当先进的代码，甚至能开发应用程序——这点时间远远不足以消化这种变革。

Not that we can't process the change, but just a year or two, which is how long it's going to take for like the idea that you can just have code by typing in a box and it's pretty advanced and it does things like ship apps, is nowhere near enough time to process that.

真的远远不够。

Like, it's just nowhere near.

实际上，它看起来就像那个地平线。

And it's it's actually going to look like that horizon.

人们可能需要几年时间才能意识到他们可以随时获得任何想要的软件。

It might take a couple years for people to figure out that they can have any software they want any time.

我经常使用这个概念。

I use the concept a lot.

我称之为潜在软件，就像描述采购表格的PDF文件或四处流传的谷歌电子表格。

I call it latent software, like PDFs that describe procurement forms or Google spreadsheets that are floating around.

比如我的公司Abort，就是专门将潜在软件变为现实，并交付到人们手中。

Like my company, Abort, is all about taking latent software and making it real and getting into people's hands.

所以我们一直在尝试引导人们，但他们非常困惑。

And so we've been trying to coach people along, and they're very confused.

现在你将看到，OpenAI会开发自己的产品，Copilot也会变得更智能。

And now you're about to see like, you know that OpenAI is gonna build their own, and you know that Copilot's gonna get smarter.

你知道会有超级碗广告宣传——如果不是今年就是明年——告诉你能够拥有任何想要的东西。

And you know that there's gonna be Super Bowl ads, if not this year, then next year, about how you can have anything you ever wanted.

而我们过去三十年刚刚围绕软件重建了整个社会。

And we just rebuilt the whole society over the last thirty years around software.

对吧？

Right?

就像'软件正在吞噬世界'曾是核心理念，而现在它正在吞噬自身。

Like, software is eating the world was this whole idea, and now it's eating itself.

所以，我确实在关注。

And and so, like, I do look.

你说得对。

You're right.

我们作为一个物种还能安然无恙吗？

Like, are we gonna are we gonna be okay as a species?

大概就像我们一直以来那样吧。

About as okay as we ever are.

还会有工作机会吗？

Will there still be jobs?

有的。

Yes.

对吧？

Right?

其实我并不悲观，但经历了疫情、共和党那些事、特朗普等等之后，我对人类承受变化的能力感到非常不安。

Like, I don't I'm not actually a pessimist, but I am after the pandemic and GOP ones and Trump and everything, I'm just, like, very nervous about the human ability to tolerate change.

我们已经在全球经济中心打造了一台终极变革引擎，它以惊人的速度不断制造变革。

And we've created the ultimate change engine that sits in the middle of our global economy and spews out change at an unbelievable rate.

我们刚刚创造了最强大的变革加速器，那就是让软件以快得多的速度发展。

And we just created the number one change accelerator possible, which is move software much, much faster.

所以我认为我们将看到的景象不会让人感到熟悉。

And so I don't think we're going to see it's not going to be familiar.

其中某些部分会非常熟悉，但我觉得另一些部分会非常非常怪异。

Parts of it will be very familiar, but I think parts will be very, very weird.

而且观察这个过程将会非常非常奇妙。

And it's gonna be really, really strange to watch.

我喜欢你举的共和党例子。

I love the GOP one example.

有趣的是你把共和党与特朗普和疫情并列列举。

And it's interesting that you listed GOP ones with Trump and the pandemic.

不过我猜在你看来——你知道的，在我的世界里这两者都是相当负面的事物。

But I assume you're which, you know, in my world, those are two pre pretty negative things.

但GLP的那些，我猜你是——我是它们的忠实粉丝。

But GLP ones, I assume you're I'm a big fan.

积极的。

Positive.

你对它们有积极的体验。

You have a positive experience with them.

所以这还挺有趣的。

So that it's sort of interesting.

只是太难了，老兄。

Just hard, man.

我在客户服务部门干了二十年。

I I was in client services for twenty years.

确实很难。

It is hard.

现在依然是。

I still am.

我确实有一个非常好的产品，真的能帮助到人们。

It's I have a really good product that can really help people.

我拥有一个真正能帮助他人的组织。

I have an organization that can really help people.

我看到Claude Code出现了，正在向我的圈子里的人展示它，因为和你类似，我也觉得'哇'。

I see Claude Code showing up, and I'm showing it to people in my world because similar to you, I'm like, woah.

而他们的反应是'等等，先别急'。

And they're like, well, hold on a minute.

而我说'不'。

And I'm like, no.

这并不是我在说'我要你们用这个'。

And it's not me saying I want you to use this.

我只是想说明我写作时的情况就是这样的。

I literally just wanna say it was like this when I was writing.

我只是想展示给你看，好让你能决定下一步该怎么做。

I just wanna show you so that you can figure out what to do next.

在我的人生历程中，我一次又一次地发现，仅仅是把东西展示给人们看，他们就会恐慌。

And what I have found over and over in the course of my life is that merely by showing people, they tend to panic.

他们不想要这种改变。

They don't want this change.

尽管他们嘴上说想要。

And they say they do.

他们只想要结果。

They want the output.

他们只想要价值。

They want the value.

每个人都想成为应用开发者。

Everybody wants to be an app developer.

但他们希望一切按老样子运行。

But what they want is it to run the way it used to.

不知道你注意到没有，现在每个产品经理都在开发自己的应用。

I don't know if you've noticed this, but every product manager you know is now building their own app.

而每个工程师都在没有产品经理的情况下开发自己的应用。

And every engineer is building their own app without product managers.

产品经理们则在没有工程师的情况下进行开发。

And the product managers are building without engineers.

设计师们正试图弄清楚如何交付产品。

And the designers are trying to figure out how to ship.

他们都很高兴能把其他人从自己的领域中排除出去。

And they're all really happy to get everybody out of their world.

而且他们相当确信自己能抓住这场革命的价值。

And they're pretty sure they're gonna be able to capture the value of the revolution.

他们想遵循过去存在的规则。

And they wanted to follow the rules that used to be there.

但这是不可能的。

But it won't.

不，这不可能。

No, it won't.

所以你可以说，我不知道我们是什么。

And so you can be like, I don't know what we are.

我们都是管道建造者吗？

Are we all pipeline builders?

我们现在都成了程序员吗？

Are we all coders now?

我们都是应用程序构建者吗？

Are we all app builders?

每个深入其中的人都在经历着你我所经历的体验。

And everybody's having the experience you and I are having who is deep in on this.

但我们即将发现，我们创造的一切可能比我们两周前想象的更易被替代，也没那么令人兴奋。

But we're about to find that everything we created is probably more disposable and less exciting than we thought it was like two weeks from now.

所以我对此感到困惑。

And so I am puzzling that.

我认为这将会是一个深层次的艰难过程，但同时也伴随着大量令人兴奋的好事。

I think it's I think this is gonna be a rough one deep down, an exciting one with an enormous amount of good things.

我真的很期待每个人都能拥有他们梦寐以求的所有软件，因为这始终是我的梦想。

And I I can't I I'm so excited for everybody to have all the software they ever wanted because that's always been my dream.

但现在它真的来了，我反而有点害怕。

But now that it's here, I'm a little scared.

这不是很有趣吗？

Isn't that interesting?

就像，我也一直在思考这个问题，如果我退一步，回顾大约七到十年前，我说将来会有一种东西，你只需输入内容，它就能生成任何你想要的东西。

Like, I've been thinking about that too a little bit is if I took a step back and, like, reround, like, seven years or ten years and I said, there's just gonna be a thing where you type into it and it just makes whatever you want.

是啊。

Yeah.

我可能会觉得，那太棒了。

I I would have been like, that's great.

那绝对没什么可怕的。

That's definitely not scary.

发生了。

Happened.

是啊。

Yeah.

他们一直承诺这个。

They've been promising this.

七十年来他们一直在承诺这个。

They have been promising this for seventy years.

然后它就突然实现了，这让我不禁怀疑，是否真有什么纯粹的好事会发生。

And then it just happened, and then you're like, like, it makes me question if anything could happen that would be an unalloyed good.

不。

No.

这是过去十五年的教训。

That's been the lesson of the last, like, fifteen years.

答案就是没有。

No is the answer.

这...我也不知道。

And that's I don't know.

这大概就是成年人的必修课吧。

Like, that's also the lesson of adulthood.

对吧？

Right?

这也是与人共事时学到的道理。

Like and and it's also the lesson of working with people.

当你与人合作时，他们最突出的优点往往也是最大的缺点。

When you work with people, their best qualities are always their worst qualities.

你知道，我擅长宏观思考，但在执行层面常常一塌糊涂。

You know, I'm good at thinking big thoughts, but often terrible at delivery.

所以你得给我配个执行力强的搭档。

So you have to pair me with somebody who's good at delivery.

是啊。

Yeah.

你知道的，因为我容易分心。

You know, because I get distracted.

你知道，有趣的是我跑题了。

The you know, it's funny that I tangential to that.

软件的承诺，如果追溯到施乐PARC时代，甚至在Lisp编程语言之前，就是我们将拥有一套可组合的对象，它们可以交互，而普通人能够学会这个系统并构建他们想要的任何东西。

The promise of software, if you go back to, like, the Xerox PARC days, even before list programming language and so on, is that we would have sets of composable objects that could interact and that an average human being would be able to learn the system and build whatever they wanted.

是啊。

Yeah.

这就是艾伦·凯和七十年代Dynabook的全部意义所在。

That was the whole point of, like, Alan Kay and the Dynabook in the seventies.

如果你不知道这是什么，其实它非常清晰易懂。

If you don't know what this is, like, it's very legible.

本质上就像一台笔记本电脑，孩子们可以用它来构建他们想要的任何软件，这是七十年代施乐PARC提出的构想。

It's essentially like a laptop that kids can use to build any software they want proposed in the seventies at Xerox PARC.

去看看维基百科页面吧。

Go look at the Wikipedia page.

这基本上就是我们的设想。

It's it's kind of what we thought.

然后我们以为那会是iPhone。

And then we thought that was gonna be the iPhone.

对吧？

Right?

我们曾以为，尤其是iPad，以至于史蒂夫·乔布斯和艾伦·凯在iPhone推出时还讨论过这个想法。

We thought that was and particularly the iPad to the point that like Steve Jobs and Alan Kay were were kinda like talking about that in the as the iPhone was being rolled out.

就像，嘿，我觉得我们越来越接近了，你知道，这个理念是你会以越来越抽象的方式操作代码。

Like, hey, I think we're getting closer, you know, and it was the idea was you'd you'd you'd manipulate code in ever more abstract ways.

但现实是，LLM出现前，电脑一直糟糕透顶，从不好用。

And what happened is LLMs, computers continued to suck and suck and suck and be horrible and never work.

而我们的解决方案实际上是模拟人类，让他们替你完成，而不是让电脑真正好用或研究如何编写极其健壮的代码。

And l and and our solution was actually to simulate humans so that they could do it for you rather than make the computer really, really usable or figure out how to make really, really robust code.

这背后有合理的原因，但我现在不想深入讨论。

And there's good reasons for that, but I don't wanna go into them right now.

但人们已经为此努力了几十年。

But like that people have been trying for decades.

于是突然间，我们拥有了它。

And so suddenly we have it.

我们实现了七十年代的幻想。

We have the fantasy of the seventies.

我可以坐下来。

I could sit.

我认为现在我可以训练任何人以足够算法化和结构化的方式思考应用程序。

I can train anybody, I think at this point to think algorithmically and structurally enough about applications.

你知道吗？

You know?

我们将需要大量重新调整关于如何教育人们理解软件功能的方式。

And there's gonna be a lot of retooling around how we educate people about what software does.

但我认为大约两周后，你就能开始构建真正有意义的东西了。

But I think in about two weeks, you could start to build really, really meaningful stuff.

而我认为大约两年后，你几乎可以构建任何东西。

And I think in about two years, you can probably build just about anything.

而那是过去20个人的工作量。

And that that used to be the work of 20.

这很棒。

That is great.

而且确实很棒。

And it is great.

我不想表现得太过激动。

I I don't wanna, like, freak out too much.

我刚刚度过了整个感恩节周末，就是刚结束的那个，我觉得我在电脑前花了太多时间。

I just spent all Thanksgiving weekend is where like, just ended, and I just spent too much time on the computer, I think.

但我想坚持这个观点，因为我喜欢这个——这就是成年生活的写照，因为你完全正确。

But I want to stick there because I love this that's the story of adulthood because you're absolutely right.

这就是我对部分AI讨论的质疑所在，可以说更主流的那部分，它隐含着一个潜在假设：任何可能产生负面影响的事物都是坏的。

And it that is my problem with a section of the AI discourse that is, I I would say, more the mainstream section, which is has this hidden underlying assumption that anything that could have negative effects is bad.

因此它只寻找那些...怎么说呢...更偏向于...而不像成年人的思维方式那样，你会觉得这里有些真正好的东西，也有些问题存在。

And so and is looking for the only those, more or less, as as opposed to, like, a little bit more like, in adulthood, you're like, there's some really good stuff here, and there's some problems here.

这就像是，你知道的，一种既美妙又令人恐惧的混合体。

And it's sort of this, like, you know, wonderful and terrifying mix of things.

我们的任务是认可好的方面，并尽可能妥善处理不好的方面。

And our job is to acknowledge the good stuff and deal with the bad stuff best as best we can.

我认为，当你身处世界边缘时，这正是难以触及的东西，你知道的，就像是

And I think, that's what's that's what's difficult to access when you're at the edge of the world, you know, is like

哦，好的。

Oh, okay.

我完全明白你在这里指的是什么。

I know exactly what you're talking about here.

我的看法有所不同。

I I see it differently.

所以你接触到了各种各样的讨论。

So you've got a a variety of discourses.

对吧？

Right?

那我们选一个来说，就是你提到的那个，非常左翼倾向的，在蓝天背景下格外显眼的那种。

So let let's take one, which is the and the one you're talking about is, like, very left adjacent, very much shows up on blue sky.

对吧？

Right?

在某种程度上，那算是我的大本营。

That's in some ways, that's kind of my home base.

就像，那是我的家人，我成长的方式。

Like, that's my my family, the way I was raised.

还有一群人认为，通用人工智能即将到来。

You've got one group that is like, AGI is coming.

做好准备。

Get ready.

计算机就是上帝。

The computer is God.

明白吗？

Okay?

所以，我们都已经学会与他们和平共处了。

And so, like, we've all kind of learned to make our peace with them.

他们并不住在纽约市。

They don't live here in New York City.

我们只是觉得，他们看起来还不错。

We're just gonna, like, they seem good.

那里有很多人，很多多元关系，祝他们幸福。

It's a lot of guys, a lot of polyamory, and good for them.

我希望他们

I wish they

会做瑜伽。

would yoga.

你知道吗？

You know?

是啊。

Yeah.

而且他们也真的，就像他们都对AGI闭口不谈了，因为有太多钱可以赚。

And they also really, like they've also kind of all shut up about AGI because there there's so much money to be made.

比如，你知道的，山姆·奥特曼让我觉得很好笑，因为他想成为史蒂夫·乔布斯，但实际上他更像是史蒂夫·鲍尔默。

Like, you know, Sam Altman cracks me up right because he wants to be Steve Jobs when he's Steve Ballmer.

他只是搞错了史蒂夫的类型，然后就这样了，我们开始吧。

He just kinda got the wrong Steve, and and it's just like, here we go.

好吧。

Okay.

商业，资本主义

Commerce, capitalism

这真是个犀利的观点。

That is a hot take.

我是说，我现在说错了吗？

I mean, am I wrong now?

告诉我如果我错了。

Tell me if I'm wrong.

我我我很想听你详细解释一下。

I I I would love for you to unpack that.

我觉得这是个——我认为这是个绝妙的说法。

I think that's a I think it's a great it's a great line.

我甚至需要说吗？他是个非常、非常出色的销售员。

Do I even need to he's a really, really good salesman.

他是个非常精明的交易高手。

He's a really good deal guy.

他告诉我们正迈向AGI，结果现在我们得到的却是购物功能。

He told us we were headed towards AIG's and now we're getting, shopping.

对吧？

Right?

就像，他是个彻头彻尾的商业型人物。

Like, he's he's a commerce guy.

老实说，我觉得他在这方面确实很在行。

I don't actually, I think he's good at that.

你知道吗？

You know?

我觉得Anthropic很有趣，如果你把这两家公司比较一下。

I think Anthropic it's funny if you compare the two companies.

就像，OpenAI非常微软化。

Like, OpenAI is very much Microsoft.

就像，无论你想要什么。

Like, whatever you want.

无论你想要什么。

Whatever you want.

我们会把这个卖给你，你就会拥有它。

We're gonna sell this to you, and you're gonna have it.

天啊。

God.

是啊。

Yeah.

让我再多说一点。

Let me give you more.

而且，Anthropic就是谷歌。

And and, Anthropic is Google.

这其实很有趣，看看他们从哪里购买芯片就知道了。

Like and it's actually funny because look where they're buying their chips.

Anthropic实际上就是在购买谷歌的TPU芯片。

Like like, Anthropic is literally buying Google TPUs.

我本来以为你会说

Like, they're I thought you were gonna

说Anthropic是苹果。

say Anthropic is Apple.

不是。

No.

没人能比得上苹果，因为虽然Claude的代码很棒，但它与人类毫无关系。

Nobody's Apple because nobody's really Claude code is great, but it has nothing to do with human beings.

它仍然是为工程师设计的。

It has to do with it's still for engineers.

你不能让任何非技术人员使用那个界面。

You can't put anyone you can't put a civilian in front of that interface.

这完全没有意义。

It makes no sense.

确实如此。

That's true.

你就是做不到。

You just can't.

他们能达到那个目标吗？

Now could they get there?

也许吧。

Maybe.

我只是觉得他们甚至没这个打算。

I just don't think they even want to.

我认为他们只想加速、加速、再加速工程进度，让所有人都跑起来，然后他们会在过程中想办法将其产品化。

I think they wanna just accelerate, accelerate, accelerate engineering and let everybody go run off, and then they'll figure out how to productize along the way.

而我认为OpenAI想要一举拿下整个市场。

Whereas, like, I think OpenAI wants to make a play for the whole shebang.

他们想成为操作系统。

They wanna be the operating system.

而夹在中间的苹果就像...关键点在于苹果让电脑消失了。

And the Apple in the middle of the peep like, what's it gonna look the thing about Apple is it made the computer disappear.

那么谁会让人工智能大模型消失呢？

So who's gonna make the LLM disappear?

对吧？

Right?

并将其与人们当下想做的事情对齐。

And just sort of align it with what people wanna do today.

而且我...我甚至不确定这项技术是否已经发展到那个阶段了。

And I I don't know if we're even there yet with this technology.

我也不这么认为。

I don't think so either.

哦，等等。

Oh, so wait.

那就是第一类人。

So that's that's group one.

好的。

Okay.

我们说到第一类人了。

We got group one.

接下来我要给个建议——硅谷尤其做了件极其荒谬的事，告诉人们这项技术能解决所有社会弊病，却根本没有配套方案。

And then here is my I'll actually give some advice, which is Silicon Valley in particular dropped this absolutely bizarre thing, told everybody it would solve every possible social ill, and didn't really come with a plan.

结果确实出现了实际危害，人们开始恐慌。

And there were real harms that emerged, and people panicked.

而且危害评估框架也不明确。

And the harm frameworks weren't clear.

我觉得我们必须这么做，因为我也深陷其中，老兄。

And I think what we got to do because I'm in there too, man.

我热爱这些东西。

I love this stuff.

我每天都在使用它们。

I use it every day.

然后我上Blue Sky，那里大约80%的动态都是人们在抱怨他们有多讨厌我整天接触的所有东西。

And then I go on Blue Sky where, like, 80% of my feed is people saying how much they hate everything that I'm touching all day long.

我理解。

And I get it.

我理解是因为他们也讨厌科技行业。

I get it because they also hated the tech industry.

我觉得你只需要，让他们发泄完就好。

I think you gotta just, like, let them burn it out.

总会有人这辈子都痛恨这些玩意儿。

There will be people who just hate this shit for the rest of their life.

我来告诉你，你会发现一件很疯狂的事。

And what you'll find because I'll tell you, here's what's wild.

作为一个某种程度上站在他们那边、能感同身受的人，事实是这样的。

And this is actually as someone who's very much kind of on their I feel them on their side.

我认识一些进步派的文学界人士——要知道，我曾在《哈珀斯》杂志当过编辑。

I got my kind of progressive type literary types from my you know, I used to be an editor at Harper's Magazine.

对吧？

Right?

所以对我来说，在那个圈子里的人完全不想跟这事扯上关系。

And so, like, there's a whole world there for me where those people want nothing to do with this.

他们希望自己的散文不被机器人染指，希望某种特定的世界形态和世界观能延续下去。

They want their pros untouched by a robot and they want a certain world and a certain vision of the world to persevere.

而这一切都是对那种愿景的干扰和噪音。

And this is all noise and distraction from that.

世间万物皆是如此。

Just like everything is.

就像科技行业一样。

Just like the tech industry is.

就像互联网一样。

Just like the web is.

就像博客曾经那样。

Like blogging was.

他们就像在说，请让我回归纯粹，别来烦我。

They're just like, please let me get back to my purity and please get out of my hair.

好吧，这就是他们想要的。

And okay, like that's what they want.

但接下来有个非常棘手的问题。

Then I think there's but then there's this very tricky thing going on.

有很多人认为，这纯粹是邪恶的，我们必须抵制它。

There's a lot of people who are like, this is just an unalloyed evil and we have to reject it.

与此同时，我坐在纽约舒适的办公室里，却听到并与儿童健康慈善机构、科学家、真正的善心人士以及环保人士合作，他们说这能加速我们的进程，我们想这么做。

And at the same time, I'm sitting here in my nice office in New York City, but I'm hearing from and working with children's health charities and scientists and real do gooders and climate types who are like, this can accelerate our road map and we want to do it.

我们希望利用这些工具来实现我们的使命，他们的使命在我看来是纯粹的、对世界有益的。

We want to use these tools to achieve our mission, and their mission is unalloyed, what I believe to be positive in the world.

他们看到了价值。

They see the value.

他们通常是以科学家的身份接触这些。

They're often coming to it like as scientists.

他们看到了风险，然后表示，请让我们用它来完成目标。

They see the risks, and they're like, let's please use it in order to get that done.

对他们来说，软件并非舞台主角。

And they are not software is not the star of the show for them.

他们的工作、他们的社区、他们的捐赠者才是重点。

Their work is, their community, their donors.

他们会想，我们如何能整合数据或部署平台或管理内容，用这些方式让我们能更多地去做我们真正想做的事——那些我们坚信对世界纯粹有益的事。

And they're like, what can we do to aggregate the data or deploy the platform or manage the content or do this stuff in such a way that we can do more of the other thing we wanna do, which is we believe in unalloyed good for the world.

他们感到无比兴奋和充满干劲。

And they're super excited and motivated.

所以当我听你谈论这些时，实际上出现了一个奇怪的分歧。

And so what I see when you're talking about that stuff, there's actually a strange fork.

有一类人认为：'我相信我对人类需求有很好的道德模型，我们必须彻底拒绝这个。'

There's a group of people who are like, I believe that I have a really good ethical model for what humans need, and I believe we have to reject this outright.

而另一类人则是：'我相信这个，而且这是我日常工作的一部分。'

And then there's another group that is like, I believe that and it's my day to day job.

A类人群说：'要把这个排除在所有事情之外。'

And group a is like, keep this out of everything.

B类人群说：'我等不及要更多地使用这个了。'

And group b is like, I can't wait to use more of this.

这非常令人困惑。

And it's very, very confusing.

我认为这种紧张关系只会继续加剧。

I think that tension is going to just keep rising.

与此同时，还有一些人说：'我是个教授。'

And then the same time, are people who are like, I'm a professor.

我教授研究方法。

I teach research methods.

我不希望我的学生接触这个。

I don't want this near my students.

我需要他们的大脑保持思考能力。

I need their brains to work.

我理解这一点。

And I get that.

实际上我认为这是正确的。

I actually think that's right.

这样很好。

Like, good.

好的。

Okay.

就划清这条界限。

Draw that line.

让他们自己想办法解决。

Make them figure it out.

反正他们终究会去使用它。

They're going to go use it anyway.

他们心知肚明。

They know that.

但如果你想暂时把他们框在某个学习框架里，让他们真正了解思考方式和行为准则的历史渊源，并且你作为教育者认为这很重要——我不会对此妄加评判。

But like if you want to put them in a box for a minute so that they actually learn the history of how to think and what to do and you feel that that's important as an educator, I'm not going to second guess you.

我尊重这一点。

I respect that.

所以我认为关键是在这一切中寻找平衡。

So I think it's trying to find a balance in all this.

但归根结底，这种平衡就像你手握提示词时，它能为你提供真正有用的帮助，同时你要清楚它的优劣之处，然后继续自己的生活。

But ultimately, the balance is like you're there with that prompt and it does something for you that's really useful and kind of knowing what's good and what's bad about it and then going on with your life.

因为如果你试图参与任何关于这项技术的讨论，那简直就是场噩梦。说实话，我很庆幸自己没有创办一家完全专注于解决这个问题的公司。

Because if you even try to engage with any of the discourse around this technology, you're just in hell, which I mean, I'm glad I didn't start a business totally focused on that problem.

这就是我为什么不上Blue Sky的原因。

This this is why I stay off of Blue Sky.

我无法想象成为你。

I can't imagine being you.

现在更无法想象在Blue Sky上成为你。

Can't imagine being you on Blue Sky now.

感觉糟透了。

It's like it sucks.

我在这方面有个有趣的豁免权，因为我是个老人，而且，你知道，我还是经常挨骂。

I get a I get a funny hall pass with this stuff cause I'm an old and and, you know, I'm just like I just I I still get yelled at on a regular basis.

但昨天，我就想，Simon Willison——我猜很多听众应该知道他——简直了。

But, yes, yesterday, I was just like, Simon Willison, who I'm guessing many of your listeners should know, is just like, wow.

他谈论AI如何改变编程，就像捅了马蜂窝。

He sort of stirred the hornet's nest by talking about how AI was changing coding.

我只是觉得，他说得对。

And I just did a like, he's right.

你应该听听那篇帖子。

You should listen post.

半数人的反应是，大家都会过来表示赞同，对对。

Half the people what happens is everybody comes down, they're like, yep, yep.

而另一半人则会说不。

And then the other half are like, no.

总有那么一次，这样那样的理由。

There's this one time and it's this and it's that.

让他们去争吧，伙计。

Let them fight, man.

让他们在你的评论区里吵。

Let them fight in your mentions.

我认为这实际上是对范式转变的典型反应。

I think this is actually a very typical, basically, reaction to a paradigm shift.

某种程度上，那些习惯了原有方式并想继续的人，就会一直那样做下去。

And to some degree, people who have who are like, know how they do things and wanna keep doing it that way are just gonna keep doing it.

这还是一样的情况。

And it's the same thing.

那天。

That day.

还有西海岸来的人告诉你这事必须永远这么做。

You also got people coming in from the West Coast telling you how it must be done forevermore.

是啊。

Yeah.

这种感觉真的很糟糕。

And that's it feels real bad.

他们就这样直接无视了你的担忧。

Like and they're and they just dismiss your concerns.

对吧？

Right?

我们都习惯了。

We're used to it.

我们是技术宅，已经习惯了宅男们就这样跌跌撞撞地闯进来。

We're tech nerds, and we're used to we're used to nerds just kinda, like, stumbling in.

宅男们其实从未完全意识到自己在房间里有多大影响力。

Nerds never actually fully acknowledge how much power they have in a room.

所以他们就会很惊讶。

And so they're like, woah.

为什么大家都这么生气？

Why is everybody so upset?

这技术明明很酷啊。

This is really cool technology.

然后就会觉得，因为本来我靠插画谋生，还要供孩子上学，你知道的，我们本来计划至少能去度一次假。

And then and then, you know, it's like, well, because I was gonna make my living as an illustrator, and I was gonna send my children to a you know, like, you know, we were gonna go on vacation once.

而他们只会说，哦，随便啦。

And they're like, oh, whatever.

全民基本收入。

UBI.

就是，整个事情给人的感觉就是这样。

And and, like, that that whole thing, that's how that comes across.

西海岸的人就是充耳不闻，我觉得人们很难被反复告知他们被贬值没关系，却得不到任何形式的认可。

It's just this tin ear on the West Coast, and it is pretty hard for people, I think, to told over and over how they're it's okay that they're being devalued without being celebrated in any way.

所以最终就会出现像Anthropic必须向出版商支付15亿美元这样的情况。

And and so you end up with stuff like Anthropic having to pay $1,500,000,000 to publishers.

对吧？

Right?

因为所有这些事情，你知道，他们感到脆弱，然后觉得受到攻击。

Because, like, of all that stuff, you know, it's just like these they feel vulnerable, and then they feel attacked.

然后他们就会动用自己拥有的权力，而他们拥有的权力之一就是抱怨。

And then they're gonna use what power they have, and one of the powers they have is to just complain.

我也不知道。

And I don't know.

我认为我们必须承认这一点，因为我们要拿走所有的钱。

I think you gotta we have to own that because we got to keep all the money.

好吧，让我们稍微分析一下这个问题。

Well, let's let's let's let's unpack that a little bit.

好的。

Okay.

首先，让我们找些员工来和我们一起分析这个问题，作为公司的领导者。

First of first of let's bring in some employees to unpack it with us as the as the leaders of our companies.

对吧？

Right?

嘿，伙计们。

Hey, guys.

进来吧。

Come on in.

我们来谈谈如何

Let's talk about how we

我想理解的是，我非常认同'他们感到脆弱'这一点。

What I wanna understand what I wanna understand like, I I love the they feel vulnerable.

当你感到脆弱时，新事物出现时，本能的第一反应就是‘这很糟糕’。

And if you feel vulnerable and something new comes along, it's like it's an it's an obvious immediate reaction to be like, this is bad.

我不喜欢这样。

I don't I don't like this.

我不想要这样。

I don't want this.

对吧？

Right?

但问题是他们都去了白宫和特朗普其乐融融，包括黄仁勋。

But Doesn't help that they all went to the White House and kumbaya with Donald Trump, including Jensen Huang.

我的意思是，这并不能让脆弱的人感觉好受些。

I mean, it doesn't, like, help the vulnerable people feel less vulnerable.

我只是把这话挑明。

Let's just just putting that out there.

总之，继续说吧。

Anyway, go on.

我失去了母亲，这

That lost my mom, which

是真的。

is For real.

对吧？

Right?

是啊。

Yeah.

没错。

Yeah.

但我

But I

觉得你是和撒旦一伙的吗？

think are you doing in league with Satan?

你这是在重演我感恩节的对话。

The the you're you're you're replaying my Thanksgiving conversations.

不。

No.

他们...我妈妈非常非常骄傲。

They're my mom is much, much she's very proud.

她应该感到骄傲。

She should be.

她确实应该感到非常骄傲。

She should be very proud.

她希望我小心行事。

She wants me to be careful.

哦。

Oh.

你最好也小心点。

And you better be careful.

关于那个联盟的事。

With the league.

是啊。

Yeah.

我在想，不如让我们在这些跨领域的世界里找点乐子，你知道的，就是那些既喜欢技术又重视人文写作的人。

I think but let's let's annoy ourselves, you know, in between worlds type people where we like the tech stuff and then we also care a lot about writing in the humanities.

理想情况下，因为我们这些纽约科技人才太优秀了，我们可以成为连接这两个阵营的桥梁。

And so ideally, because we're amazing New York tech people, we can we can kind of be the bridge that's missing between these two camps.

我想了解的是，假设我们正尝试

And what I wanna understand let's say we're trying to

去杜兰大学。

do Tulane.

说真的，我和你完全可以办个活动，找个好地方。

Literally, we you and I can do an event, have a nice space.

我们可以把他们全请来。

We can we can bring them all here.

肯定会很棒的。

It'll be great.

太棒了。

Love that.

那将会非常了不起。

That would be amazing.

我们会做到的。

We're do that.

我们要举办一个人文学者可以来对我们发火的活动。

We're gonna do we're gonna do an event where humanities people can come yell at us.

我可没报名参加这个。

I I didn't sign up for that.

不。

No.

你也没报名参加这个。

You didn't sign up for that.

你去接电话。

You get the phone.

不。

No.

不。

No.

不。

No.

我们就要这么做。

We're doing it.

我们要请来美国最昂贵学校里那些最愤怒、薪酬过高的教授，让他们来告诉我们我们有多糟糕。

We're gonna bring in the angriest, overpaid professors from the most expensive schools in America to tell us how bad we are.

现在我想弄明白的是。

Now here's what I wanna understand.

让我们暂且保持平衡视角，假设我们想审视那些对此批评声音最大的左派人士的论点。

Let like, let's just let's take the the balanced perspective for a second and say, we wanna examine we wanna examine the the arguments of the people of the people on the left who are loudest about this being bad.

嗯。

Mhmm.

那么，你认为实际上已经发生、正在发生或将要发生的真正糟糕的事情有哪些，是一个热爱这项技术的理性人应该关心的？

And, like, what what are the what are what do you think are the actual real bad things that have happened or are happening or will happen that a reasonable person who loves this technology should care about?

这是个非常好的问题。

That's a very good question.

让我先思考一下再开口。

Let me think for a second before running my mouth.

因为我认为，关于具体危害的报道和说法有很多。

Because I think look, there are a lot of stories and narratives about specific harms.

你在报纸上就能看到。

You see them in the paper.

比如，聊天机器人鼓励青少年自杀这类事情。

And, you know, it'll be, chatty PT encouraging suicide in teens.

对此我的反应很复杂，因为作为一名技术专家，我见证了...我已经51岁了。

And I think there's an element I have a I have a tricky reaction to that because as a technologist, I've watched and I'm I'm I'm 51.

对吧？

Right?

所以我见证了两三代互联网技术的发展历程。

So I've watched like two or three generations of Internet technology.

而这些危害一旦规模化就会全面爆发。

And these harms just spill out at scale.

要完全阻止这些危害往往是不现实的。

And it it's really not stopping the harms is not always possible.

每当出现一项新技术时。

You have a new technology.

你会发现这些机构逐渐形成了自我重要性的叙事——因为它们持续获得正向反馈。

You see ways that and and I think what happens is you see these orgs, they get they get a narrative of their own importance in the world because they're getting constant positive feedback.

资金源源不断地涌入。

The money's pouring in.

人们都在说：天啊，这真的帮到了我女儿。

People are saying, my god, you know, my this really helped my daughter.

这真的帮到了我儿子。

This really helped my son.

我们正以各种激动人心的科学方式运用这项技术。

This is we're using this in all sorts of exciting scientific ways.

然后当坏事发生时他们震惊了。

And then they're shocked when something bad happens.

对吧？

Right?

因为有如此多的好处涌入，伴随着巨额资金，他们感到震惊。

Because there's so much good pouring in and it's coming with so much money and they're shocked.

然后他们就会全力施压，最终陷入这种怪异的循环，你知道，总是以某位CEO突然痴迷综合格斗收场。

And then they do like a full court press and then you end up in this like bizarre cycle where, you know, it always ends up with, like, somebody getting really into MMA as, a CEO.

对吧？

Right?

我只是觉得不应该是这样。

I just sort of like no.

但我真的认为这就是他们的某种状态——他们感到如此受攻击和脆弱，因为人们不断说他们有点邪恶，于是他们就想：'我要成为该死的笼斗选手，让他们看看。'

But I really think that that's like them a certain they they they're so they feel so attacked and they feel so vulnerable because people keep telling them that they're kind of evil that they're like, I'm gonna become a fucking cage fighter, and that's gonna show them.

而且，你知道，这就像风筝冲浪是通往那个的入门毒品。

And and, you know, it's like it's kite surfing is like the gateway drug to that.

而且，就像，整个事情就这样发生了。

And, like, there's just like a whole thing that happens.

所以当资金涌入时，大型科技公司内部就上演着这种文化动态，这就像是一个完整的现象。

So you've got this whole, like, cultural dynamic playing out inside of giant tech orgs as the money pours in, and it's like a whole thing.

然后媒体拼命寻找非常具体的伤害，以求编造一个能扩展成更广泛叙事的故事。

And then you've got the the press desperately seeking for very specific harms to get a story that can turn into a narrative that can be a little bit broader.

你把这两件事硬凑在一起，结果相当可怕。

And you smash those two things together, and it's pretty hideous.

唯一能解决这个问题的办法是通过监管和监督，但我们的社会至少正在部分崩溃，而且似乎对此毫无兴趣。

And the only way that you resolve that is through regulation and oversight, but our society is at least a little bit collapsing, and it just doesn't seem interested in that.

那么现在该怎么处理这个问题呢？

And so so now what what would be a way to do with this?

首先，首先，不要想要——这里应该怎么做？

First first of all, don't want it what would be a thing to do here?

首先，我不想把语言模型重新关回盒子里。

First of all, I don't wanna put LMs back in the box.

我想说的是，当我们讨论危害时，不是具体的危害，缺乏来源信息是糟糕的。

I would say that when we're talking about harms, not specific harms, the lack of provenance is bad.

我想知道我的'肉'里有什么成分。

I would like to know what goes into my meat.

明白吗？

Okay?

就像，我我我需要一些营养指南，告诉我的人工智能大模型里有什么、它在使用什么、那些数据来自哪里。

Like, I I I wanna I wanna I want some nutritional guidelines as to what's in my anthropic LLM and what it's using and where that data came from.

我不想被突如其来的大规模版权诉讼吓到。

I don't wanna be surprised by huge copyright cases.

我我不应该遇到这种情况。

I I shouldn't be.

我应该清楚自己在使用什么。

I should know what I'm I'm using.

我知道谷歌大致上就是互联网的代名词。

I know that Google is the web, roughly.

谷歌不会进入网络的隐秘角落，并且遵守robots.txt协议。

And Google doesn't go into secret parts of the web, and it honors robots.txt.

这是谷歌与网络世界达成的契约。

That is a contract that Google made with the web.

当它违背这个契约时，情况就会变得非常糟糕。

And when it doesn't honor it, it's really bad.

事实上，谷歌曾尝试绕过开放网络的技术（比如AMP页面这类东西），这让人们非常不满。

And in fact, there have been technologies where Google kind of, like, tried to sidestep the open web, and people got really upset, like AMP pages and things like that.

哦，你和RJ正在喝Spindrift热带柠檬水啊。

Oh, you and RJ, you're drinking a Spindrift tropical lemonade.

太棒了。

Love it.

看起来我也在喝呢。

Looks like I am too.