Anthropic提交IPO申请：创始人保留50.1%的投票权

Anthropic 已经正式提交了他们在纳斯达克上市的 S1 文件。

Anthropic has officially filed their S1 for their NASDAQ IPO.

股票代码将是 ANT，A-N-T。

The stock ticker is going to be ANT, A-N-T.

这份文件里出现了很多非常惊人的事情。

In this filing, a lot of really wild things appear.

其中之一就是他们上半年的收入达到了 162.9 亿美元。

One is that they made $16.29 billion in first-half revenue.

他们净亏损 807 亿美元，而且创始人单一持股拥有 50.1% 的投票权。

They have an $80.7 billion net loss, and a single founder share has 50.1% of the vote.

信息量非常大。

There's a lot going on.

我们将全面解析整个 Anthropic 的 S1 文件。

We're going to break down the entire Anthropic S1.

这可能会成为有史以来规模最大的 IPO 之一。

This could be one of the biggest IPOs of all time and in all history.

所以今天在节目里，我们就来好好分析一下这件事。

So we're going to break that down today on the show.

在开始之前，我想提一下，如果你想试试 Anthropic 或 OpenAI 或任何 AI 公司的最新模型，我非常希望你能去看看我的创业公司 aibox.ai。

Before we do, I wanted to mention, if you want to try all the latest models from Anthropic or from OpenAI or from any of the AI companies, I would love for you to check out my startup, which is aibox.ai.

在 AI Box 上，你可以访问超过 100 种不同的 AI 模型，包括 Google、Anthropic、OpenAI、Meta、Mistral、Cohere、xAI、Perplexity，以及很多其他非常棒的公司。

On AI Box, we let you access over 100 different AI models, everything from Google, to Anthropic, to OpenAI, to Meta, to Mistral, to Cohere, to xAI, Perplexity, and a bunch of other really incredible companies.

如果你想去看看，就去 aibox.ai 吧。

If you want to check those out, go to aibox.ai.

而且我们刚刚推出了一项重大更新和新功能，就是可以在我们的聊天里创建 PowerPoint 文档、Word 文档，以及各种其他文件。

And we've just added a big new update and feature, which is that we're allowing you to create PowerPoint documents, Word documents, and all sorts of other things in our chat.

所以我们有一个聊天浏览器或游乐场，你可以和它对话，然后说：‘嘿，我想做这个或那个。’

So we have a chat browser or a playground that you can talk to, and you can say, "Hey, I want to make this or that."

以前呢，它通常只是用 AI 模型生成文本、音频、视频、图片、音乐。

And typically, it's just been generating text, audio, video, image, music with AI models.

现在，你其实可以制作丰富的文件了，比如 PPT 啦、文档啦这些。

Now you're actually able to make rich files, things like PowerPoints, things like documents.

如果你想看看我们的新更新，就去 aibox.ai 看看吧。

If you want to go check that out, the new update that we've made, go check out aibox.ai.

起步价只要 8.99 美元。

It's only $8.99 to get started.

你可以用到所有 AI 模型，而且不管你用 AI 做什么，它都是一个超棒的工作平台。

You get every AI model, and it is an incredible workstation for whatever you do with AI.

好了，我们来聊聊 Anthropic 最近的情况吧。

All right, let's talk about what's going on with Anthropic here.

他们刚刚向美国证券交易委员会提交了 S-1 注册声明。

So they just filed their Form S1 registration statement with the SEC.

这将会是他们的大规模首次公开募股。

This is going to be their big IPO.

目前股票数量和价格区间还没有确定，而且这份注册声明也还没生效，所以在 SEC 批准之前，他们还不能出售任何股票。

The number of shares and the price range haven't actually been set yet, and I think this registration statement is also not yet effective, so no shares can be sold until the SEC basically approves it and allows them to.

Anthropic 在 6 月 1 日提交了保密草案，现在都已经十月底，快到十一月了。

Anthropic submitted a confidential draft on the 1st of June, so we're now all the way in October, almost in November.

看起来高盛和摩根士丹利正在牵头一个由20多家承销商组成的联合体来做这个交易。

Apparently, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are leading a syndicate of more than 20 underwriters on this deal.

所以有很多人在忙这个事。

So there is a lot of people that are working on this.

很多人都盼着这次IPO。

A lot of people want the IPO.

他们不会只选高盛或者只选摩根士丹利。

They're going to just pick Goldman Sachs or just going to pick Morgan Stanley.

他们会把两家都放进来。

They're putting them both.

感觉像是在让他们互相竞争，不过这个承销团里还有很多人参与。

It feels like they're pitting them against each other, but there's a lot of other people in this syndicate of underwriters.

这份文件里显示的收入增长真的让我很震惊。

The revenue ramp in this filing was really shocking to me.

增长非常快，2023年是4100万美元，然后2024年是3.86亿，2025年是45.9亿，然后2026年上半年就达到了162.9亿。

It feels very steep, $41 million in 2023, and then $386 million in 2024, and then $4.59 billion in 2025, and then $16.29 billion in the first half of 2026 alone.

所以你可以说，如果他们完全没有增长，那应该超过300亿美元，但你知道他们的增长速度确实非常惊人。

So you could say, well, if they never grew at all, then that would be over $30 billion, but we know their growth rate has been really incredible.

所以仅仅在前六个月就有160亿美元，我觉得我们将看到非常大幅的增长。

So just in the first six months, if it was $16 billion, I think we're going to see a really massive uptick.

Anthropic描述他们的业务增长，基本上每个人都在用Claude，称之为“历史上任何技术最快的企业采用速度”，我觉得这里的关键词是企业，因为如果说是通用采用速度，我认为ChatGPT会赢得这个，或者说OpenAI会凭借ChatGPT赢得这个。

Anthropic is describing their business uptake of basically everyone using Claude as, quote, "the fastest enterprise adoption of any technology in history," which I guess enterprise is the keyword in there because the fastest adoption, I think ChatGPT is going to be winning this, or OpenAI is going to be winning this with ChatGPT if it's just general purpose.

但就企业采用而言，Anthropic可能确实占据了这块市场，而且说实话，那里才是钱所在的地方，对吧？

But enterprise adoption, Anthropic really might have that cornered, and to be fair, that's where the money is, right?

企业显然会比OpenAI花更多的钱，所以这是一家非常有价值的公司。

The enterprise is obviously going to spend way more money than OpenAI is, so this is a very valuable company to have.

综合所有这些，净亏损如我之前提到的，达到了807亿美元，其中包含约724亿美元的非现金公允价值变动费用。

With all of this, the net loss, like I mentioned, was $80.7 billion, and that includes about $72.4 billion in non-cash fair value charges.

运营亏损为6.93亿美元。

The operating loss was $693 million.

Anthropic已承诺在云计算上与亚马逊和谷歌投入超过4500亿美元，并且还有一系列其他供应商和投资者，他们也会在这些方面支出。

Anthropic has committed to spend over $450 billion on cloud computing with Amazon and Google, and there's a bunch of other suppliers and investors that they're going to be spending this on.

所以他们有超过4500亿美元的巨额承诺。

So they have massive commitments of $450 billion plus.

他们的净亏损已经达到了800亿美元，而营收是160亿美元。

They already lost $80 billion as their net loss, and the revenue was $16 billion.

我们具体不清楚。

We don't know exactly.

我记得看到过一些估算，说他们的收入运行率，就是未来12个月能赚多少，大概是800亿美元。

I think I've seen some estimates that their revenue run rate is like, what's it going to make in the next 12 months is like $80 billion.

那确实很厉害，但他们仍然承担着4500亿美元的云计算承诺。

So that's impressive, but they still have $450 billion in commitments for cloud compute.

所以他们需要花很多钱来建设基础设施。

So they have a lot of money that's going to need to be spent to build up the infrastructure.

不过，我得说，这其中有几个不同的部分。

Now, what I will say is there's a couple different parts of that.

一部分就是直接付钱给亚马逊或谷歌，而且我们知道他们每月付给SpaceX十亿美元，用于他们的Colossus数据中心计算。

Part of that is literally just paying Amazon or Google, or we know they pay SpaceX a billion dollars a month for their Colossus data center compute.

所以他们得付很多这种交易的钱，但我觉得他们可能也会像OpenAI和SpaceX那样，在建立自己的数据中心和基础设施上花钱，还有Meta也一样。

So they have to pay a lot of those type of deals, but I think that they're probably going to be spending money as well, like OpenAI and like SpaceX and others on Meta on building out their own data centers and their own infrastructure.

七个联合创始人持有的一股F类股票。

A single class F share held by seven co-founders.

这就是让很多人感到震惊的事情。

This is the thing that a lot of people were kind of shocked by.

所以，七个联合创始人持有的那一股F类股票拥有50.1%的投票权，这基本上让Anthropic在纳斯达克规则下成为一家受控公司。

So a single class F share that was held by seven of the co-founders carries 50.1% of the voting power, which basically makes Anthropic a controlled company under NASDAQ rules.

我们也见过类似的情况，对吧？

We've seen similar things, right?

扎克伯格让Meta上市的时候，他有超级投票权，基本上能对公司的所有决策做最终拍板，而且实际上，他们当时需要筹集很多资金。

When Zuckerberg went public with Meta, he had super voting abilities where basically he can make the final say on all of the company's decisions, and in fact, they needed to raise a bunch of money.

这就是为什么这很重要，因为今天发生在Meta身上的事情，未来也会发生在Anthropic身上，这取决于他们当初是怎么设置的。

So the reason why this is important, because this is what is happening with Meta today is going to happen with Anthropic in the future based off of how they set that up.

那我就来聊聊Meta现在的情况吧。

So I'll just explain what's happening with Meta today.

他们刚刚启动了一个350亿美元的股票发行，原因是为了资助他们在AI基础设施上的投入。

They just launched a $35 billion stock offering, and the reason is because they need to fund their AI infrastructure push.

NVIDIA、AMD、博通，看来都对其中大约50亿美元感兴趣，另外还计划明年单独出售600亿美元的C类股。

So NVIDIA, AMD, Broadcom, all of them are apparently interested up to about $5 billion of that, and there's going to be a separate $60 billion Class C share sale that's planned for next year.

所以他们现在先卖出350亿美元，而NVIDIA、AMD、博通会买下其中的50亿。

So they're going to sell $35 billion now, and they have NVIDIA, AMD, Broadcom, which are going to buy $5 billion.

可以想象，这些公司将都是Meta的供应商。

You can imagine all of those companies are going to be suppliers to Meta.

所以NVIDIA说，'看，我们投个几十亿进去，'但他们是通过股票发行来做的。

So NVIDIA's like, "Look, we'll throw a couple billion dollars in," but they're going to do a stock offering.

他们把这推向市场。

So they're putting this out on the market.

他们想筹集的是350亿美元。

$35 billion is what they're trying to raise.

现在的问题是，扎克伯格在之前一直拥有超级投票权。

Now, the problem was Zuckerberg, up until this point, always had super voting rights.

他们上市的时候发行的那些股票，扎克伯格总能保持对公司的控制。

The amount of stocks when they IPO'd ... that went out, Zuckerberg was able to always remain in control of the company.

所以当他们需要为人工智能进行大规模建设时，我们知道Meta在数据中心上花钱非常猛，而且他们现在有App Store上排名第一的应用——Muse。

So when they needed to do this huge build-out for AI, we know that Meta is spending aggressively on data centers, and they have the number one app on the App Store, Muse, right now.

所以他们终于得到了他们一直想要的消费者采纳，但这非常昂贵，原因很多。

So they're finally getting the consumer adoption that they always wanted, but it's so insanely expensive for many reasons.

研究人员、数据、数据中心，所有这些，他们都需要投入大量资金。

The researchers, the data, the data centers, all of it, they need to spend a lot of money.

他们现在花350亿，明年再花600亿，那就是950亿。

They're spending 35 now and then $60 billion next year, so that's $95 billion.

所以他们这次股票发行加上明年的计划，总共要花掉1000亿美元。

So they've got to spend $100 billion in this stock offering and what they have planned next year.

但这会稀释扎克伯格的股份，而且实际上会稀释到他失去对公司的完全控制。

But that would dilute Zuckerberg, and in fact, it would dilute him so much that he wouldn't have complete control of the company.

所以最近进行了很多谈判，最终由Meta董事会批准，这基本上确保扎克伯格即使卖出一些股票，也就是所谓的“自我稀释”，也能保持对公司的控制。

And so there was a lot of negotiations that recently happened, and that got finalized and approved by the Meta board, which essentially keep Zuckerberg in control of the company, even if he's selling some of these shares and, quote-unquote, "diluting himself."

他们创建了一种新类别的股票，这样他就能继续拥有投票权和控制公司。

They've created a new class of share, which will continue to give him voting rights and control of the company.

Anthropic 这里也发生了非常类似的事情，因为我在努力回忆 Anthropic 的创始人们具体持有多少股份，但他们并没有持有这家公司的很大一部分。

And something very similar is happening with Anthropic here because I'm trying to remember the exact numbers of how much the founders of Anthropic have, but they don't have a huge chunk of this company.

他们并不拥有公司的50.1%。

They don't own 50.1% of the company.

我觉得创始人，他们可能拥有……我认为 Dario 可能拥有 Anthropic 的5%或者类似这么小的比例。

I think the founders, they might own, I think Dario might own 5% of Anthropic or something small like that.

他们筹了太多的钱。

They've raised so much money.

他们的股份都被稀释得很厉害。

They've all been diluted so much.

不过，他们创建了一种新类别的股票，F类股票，持有50%的投票权，也就是50.1%。

However, they have created this new class of share, the class F share, that has 50% of the voting power, so 50.1%.

所以基本上，他们就像是在说：“听着，我们要上市了。”

So basically, they're like, "Look, we're going to go public.

我们要筹集大量资金。

We're going to raise a ton of money.

我们要保持对公司的完全控制。

We're going to keep complete control of the company."

我说完全控制，其实是指那七位创始人。

And by complete control, I will also say it's the seven founders.

这七位创始人仍然需要达成一致。

Those seven founders still have to agree.

不像Meta的情况，扎克伯格，他有点像大家熟知的扎克皇帝。

It's not like in Meta's case, Zuckerberg, he's kind of like Emperor Zuck, as he's famously known as.

他做所有决定，有时这是好事，有时是坏事。

He makes all the decisions, and sometimes that's good, sometimes that's bad.

有时他每年在元宇宙上花费数百亿美元，却毫无进展。

Sometimes he spends tens of billions of dollars a year on the Metaverse that goes absolutely nowhere.

我想你也可以说，也许那项技术被用到了Meta雷朋眼镜上，这就是公司的新方向。

And I guess you could argue that, well, maybe that technology got put into the Meta Ray-Ban glasses, and that's the new direction of the company.

但最终，现实实验室项目被搁置了，或者说，他那宏大元宇宙愿景被大大边缘化了，那个愿景其实从未真正实现。

But ultimately, Reality Labs got shuttered or took a big back burner to the big Metaverse vision that he had that never really materialized.

所以他在那上面花了数百亿美元，而最终所有决策权都在他手里。

So he spent tens of billions of dollars on that, and he was ultimately the one that could make all the decisions.

现在，他也是那个有胆量，或者说有投票权优势和胆量的人，他说：'看，Meta要大力投资人工智能。'

Now, he also was the one that had the guts to say, or I guess the voting shares and the guts to say, "Look, Meta's going to invest aggressively into AI."

也许你可以说，这就是Meta如今在股市表现这么好、保持如此重要的原因，正是因为这个重大推进，而且这是未来，他会抓住很多机会。

And perhaps you could argue that's the reason why Meta's doing so well in the stock market today and they're staying so relevant is because of making this big push, and it's the future, and he's going to capture a lot of that.

所以我觉得这两件事都说得通。

So I think both things can be true.

所以，扎克伯格确实敢于大赌一把。

So Zuckerberg definitely takes big swings.

有时候成功，有时候失败。

Sometimes they work out, sometimes they don't.

而这正是Anthropic在类似情况中试图做的。

But this is exactly what Anthropic is trying to do in this same situation.

他们想要保住超过50%的投票权，并维持对公司的控制。

They're trying to remain with over 50% of the voting shares and keep control of the company.

显然，客户披露显示，他们在业务上有深度，而且非常集中。

Apparently, the customer disclosure shows that they have depth and a lot of concentration in what they're doing.

截至9月，他们有超过11,900个客户，在过去12个月里创造了至少10万美元的收入。

As of September, they had more than 11,900 customers that generated at least $100,000 in trailing 12-month revenue.

所以，他们有超过1900个客户创造了至少一百万美元的收入，还有大约250个客户创造了至少一千万美元的收入。

So they have more than 1,900 that generated at least a million dollars, and they have about 250 that generated at least $10 million.

你可以想象这250家公司是谁。

You can think of who these 250 is.

这就是财富250强，对吧？

This is the Fortune 250, right?

顶级公司在Anthropic计算上花费超过一千万美元。

The top companies are spending over $10 million in Anthropic compute.

净收入留存率大约是900，而每个员工的过去12个月收入超过660万美元。

Net revenue retention was about 900, and trailing 12-month revenue per employee was more than 6.6 million.

所以，Anthropic 的每一位员工，每年能带来超过 660 万美元的收入。

So for every employee they have over at Anthropic, they're making over $6.6 million a year.

这听起来利润相当高啊。

I mean, that sounds incredibly profitable.

顺便说，这比一年前的 140 万可是高了不少。

That's up from 1.4 million, by the way, a year earlier.

大约五分之一的收入来自两个客户，这一点也挺让人惊讶的。

Roughly one-fifth of revenue came from two customers, which I will also say is pretty wild.

虽然通常都是二八法则，但五分之一的收入都来自两个客户，确实有点夸张。

It kind of always works like that with the 80/20 rule, but it's pretty wild that a fifth of all the revenue is coming from two customers.

你可能也能猜到，这两个客户可能是像微软或亚马逊这样的公司。

You could probably imagine those customers could be anyone like Microsoft or Amazon.

我猜其中一个应该是亚马逊。

I would probably guess Amazon's one of those two customers.

一旦上市，公众投资者会购买 A 类股，每股有一票投票权。

Public investors, once they go public, would buy class A shares, which carry one voting share.

一张F类股，发行给七位联合创始人共同所有的有限责任公司，现在将拥有那50%的投票权。

A single class F share, which is issued to an LLC owned by the seven co-founders, is now going to have that 50%.

所以他们会按常规方式来操作。

So they're going to do it like normal.

他们会出售所有股份。

They're going to sell all the shares.

每个购买A类股的人都会获得一票投票权。

Everyone that's buying a class A share is going to get a vote.

然而，无论他们卖出多少股份，这50%始终由联合创始人共同拥有的那家有限责任公司持有。

However, no matter how many shares they sell, 50% is always going to be owned by this LLC that the co-founders all own.

这是由长期利益信托选出的一个独立类别。

It's a separate class that's been elected by the long-term benefit trust.

所以Anthropic的结构挺有意思的，他们有一个所谓的“长期利益信托”，里面有五位在经济上无利害关系的受托人。

So Anthropic kind of has this funny structure where they have this long-term, quote-unquote, "benefit trust," and it has five financially disinterested trustees.

他们控制着董事会的多数席位，而且根据纳斯达克的规定，这种结构目前将使Anthropic基本成为一家受控公司。

They control a majority of board seats, and this structure right now is going to make Anthropic basically a controlled company, according to NASDAQ's rules.

不过他们预期只会用到关于提名和治理委员会的豁免条款。

Although they expect to only use the exemption covering its nomination and governance committee.

所以他们只会在这方面使用这些规定。

So there's only some things they're going to be using it for.

Anthropic 捐了大约8.46亿股没有投票权的股份。

Anthropic contributed about 846 million non-voting shares.

截至6月30日，这大约是5%的完全稀释股份，捐给了公益基金子公司。

That's about 5% fully diluted shares as of June 30th to the Public Benefit Fund subsidiary.

所以这里面有各种不同的子公司和安排。

So there's all sorts of different subsidiaries and things going on.

这个时机也正好碰上美国政府那边有点小摩擦。

This is also coming at a time when there's a little bit of drama with the US government.

但这绝对会是一次规模巨大的IPO。

But this is going to be an absolutely colossal IPO.

接下来会发生什么，真的很有趣。

It's going to be fascinating to see what happens here.

我会随时向你们更新他们筹集了多少资金以及那边的最新情况。

I'll keep you guys up to date on how much they raise and everything going on there.

非常感谢你今天收听我们的播客。

Thank you so much for tuning in to the podcast today.

这真的让我感到非常荣幸。

It has been an absolute pleasure.

如果你喜欢这一集，能给节目打个分、留个评论，会帮我们很大的忙，不论你在哪里收听播客。

If you enjoyed this episode, it would help the show out so much if you could leave a rating and review wherever you get your podcasts.

还有，老样子，记得去看看aibox.ai。

And as always, make sure you go check out aibox.ai.

我们刚刚推出了一个超大的更新，让你可以用超过100种不同的AI模型为你的业务创建各种很棒的内容。

We just pushed out a big, huge update that allows you to create all sorts of incredible assets for your business with over 100 different AI models.

你可以在同一个对话流、同一个工作区里和它们全部聊天。

You can chat with them all in the same thread, all in the same playground.

非常希望你能去试用一下。

Would love for you to try it out.

好的。

All right.

下一集再见各位！

Catch you guys all in the next episode