2025年预测：与挚友加文·贝克畅谈

我觉得我们现在正处在一个非常关键的转折点，这将使2025年成为自主硬件或机器人的一年。

So I feel like we're at a really interesting inflection point that is gonna make 2025 the year of autonomous hardware or robotics.

如果2024年是计算能力扩展和AI系统在软件中部署的一年，那么我认为2025年将是机器人的年份。

If 2024 was the year of kind of compute build out and the rollout of AI systems in software, I think 2025 will be the year of the robot.

你知道，有一家公司，我们今天刚从中国下了订单，叫优必选。

You know, there's a company I we just placed an order today actually out of China called Unitree.

加文，你有没有关注过这家公司？

Gavin, have you looked at this company?

有。

Yeah.

实际上，这相当惊人。

It's pretty wild actually.

这是一家了不起的公司，产品也非常出色。

It's an incredible business, incredible product.

他们的Go2机器人售价1600美元，还配备了API。

So their g o two robot is $1,600, has an API.

这就是它。

Here it is.

你可以在上面运行负载。

You can run a payload on it.

它配备了激光雷达。

It's got LiDAR on it.

它还配备了智能导引系统。

It's got kind of intelligence guidance systems on it.

这就是今年早些时候我们看过的那些视频中使用的机器人系统，当时它的后部装有机枪，基本上是一种新型的战场士兵。

This is the robot system that was used on some of those videos we looked at earlier this year where there were machine guns mounted to the back and it was basically a new kind of field soldier.

它是一个自主的战场士兵。

It's an autonomous field soldier.

但事实上，你也可以将它用于科学应用。

But, really, you can use it in scientific applications.

我们正在考虑在我们的试验农场中使用它们，让它们在农场里自主行走，拍摄图像并将数据传回给我们。

We're looking at using them in our, on our on our test farms where it can wander the farm and take images and report data back to us.

而且成本这么低，还不到3000美元，你就能用它做些了不起的事情。

And at such a low cost at, like, less than $3,000, you can do some incredible things with it.

所以这家公司在上个月从主要是中国投资者那里筹集了数亿美元，投资给了一家中国公司。

So this business just raised a couple $100,000,000 last month from mostly Chinese investors to Chinese company.

我认为，未来还会有其他类似类型的企业出现。

And I think that there's gonna be, you know, other similar type businesses.

你知道，有些事情需要很长时间才能成熟，但一旦爆发，就会比你想象的快得多。

You know, it kind of takes a long time for things to work and then all of a sudden they happen faster than you could have ever imagined.

我认为今年我们会突然意识到人形机器人和自主系统，忍不住惊叹：天哪，这居然真的来了。

I think this is gonna be the year where we're all gonna look at humanoid robots and autonomous systems and be like, oh my god, I can't believe this is here.

所以今年可能会成为转折之年。

So this could be the year a role.

这是最佳、最有力的冠军选择，我想你想要的引述是：你是怎么破产的？先是慢慢来，然后一下子全完了。

Such a great, strong choice for the biggest winner, and, I think the quote you're looking for is how did you go bankrupt slowly and then all at once?

技术变革就是这样发生的。

That's how these technology changes.

天啊，我真希望在牧场里有一台这样的机器人，让它四处巡逻，负责 perimeter 安全。

And, man, I would love to have one of these for the ranch to just run around and do the perimeter security.

抱歉，尼克。

Sorry, Nick.

尼克，快打开这个视频，你们一定要看看，如果还没看过的话。

Pull up the you guys gotta watch this if you haven't seen it.

尼克，找到那个带轮子的 GO2 在复杂地形上移动的视频。

Nick, find the video of the g o two with the wheels on it managing terrain.

哦，对的。

Oh, yes.

当时大家都觉得这段视频是假的，以为是 CGI 做出来的，不是真的。

And everyone thought this was a BS video, that it was, like, CGI wasn't real.

还以为是 AI 生成的。

It was AI generated.

但这家伙真的太厉害了。

But, like, this thing is just incredible.

在这儿。

Here it is.

这是这个东西的实拍视频。

This is a real video of this thing.

是的。

Yeah.

它也可以从大语言模型中学习。

It could learn from an LLM too.

对吧？

Right?

比如，一个大语言模型可以教它如何做某事。

Like, a large language model could teach it how to do something.

是的。

Yeah.

加文，这是真的吗？

Gavin, is this real?

比如，什么是

Like, what's

你对这个的看法？

your sense of this?

真实的。

Real.

嗯。

Yeah.

嗯。

Yeah.

我想拿到G型，就是他们的类人机器人。

I wanna get the g one, which is their humanoid robot.

对。

Yep.

他们会展示出那个类人机器人。

They'll pull up the humanoid.

这真的很酷。

It's really cool.

是的。

Yeah.

是的。

Yeah.

但是

But

我的意思是，16000美元相当于一辆二手普锐斯的价格。

I mean, $16,000 is the cost of a used Prius.

说实话。

Let's be honest.

这已经接近可以负担得起的范围了，你看

That's in spitting distance of being affordable Look

这东西。

at this thing.

16美元，有了这个东西，你基本上可以命令它在你家里、工厂或工作场所为你做事。

$16 and this thing, you can, you know, you can basically command it to do things for you in your house, or in your factory or your workplace.

不。

No.

得了吧。

Come on.

我就知道你会这么做。

I knew you would do it.

哎呀，别这样。

Oh, come on.

我本来想说，也许我们可以来个扑克牌局，或者博，我不知道这东西会不会发牌。

Was gonna say maybe we could get a poker deal or maybe Bo, you know, I wonder if this thing could deal

或者发牌？记得吗？

cards or remember?

你们还记得那个在我们All In节日活动中登台的机器人吗？是的。

You guys remember that robot that was on stage for our all in holiday Yes.

一家了不起的公司？

Spectacular company?

一个X。

One x.

我哥哥做了一个观察。

My my brother made an observation.

他说，自从那个机器人出现后，每个人都想欺负它。

He said, as soon as that robot came out, it's like everyone just wanted to abuse it.

他觉得人类有一种非常有趣的特点，那就是机器人一出现，人类就想伤害机器人。

He's like humans have this very interesting nature where, like, the robot emerges and all that humans wanna do is, like, hurt the robot.

这真是对人类行为的一种奇特揭示。

It's like a very strange revelation of human behavior.

是的。

Yeah.

就像，哦，这里有个我可以支配的东西。

Like, it just it's like, oh, here's something I could dominate.

我可以告诉你一件事

Here's something I can tell

把它反馈给你，小心点。

it back to you be treading.

通过它。

By it.

我们想确保自己仍处于物种的顶端，但感觉这种状态不会持续太久了。

We wanna make sure that we we're at the top of the species here, and it doesn't feel like it's gonna be for much longer.

我的意思是，这些玩意儿很快就会把我们打得落花流水。

I mean, these things will kick our ass pretty soon.

是的。

Yeah.

不管怎样，这些东西太棒了。

Anyway, these things are amazing.

我觉得今年将是机器人的年份。

I think this is gonna be the year of the robots.

这是我的预测。

That's my prediction.

机器人之年

Year of

机器人之年是你的预测。

the robots is your prediction.

我喜欢这个说法。

I love it.

加文，你有什么看法？

Gavin, what do you got?

我完全同意。

Profoundly agree.

我认为机器人之年应该包括FSD。

I think Year of the Robots inclusive of FSD.

我觉得FSD现在就已经很有效了，而且还会继续进步。

You know, I think FSD works today, and it's gonna yeah.

它将进入主流应用阶段，我已经注意到，尤其是在深夜打Uber时。

It's it's gonna cross into mainstream adoption where I already notice, particularly if I'm taking an Uber late at night.

我真的很希望乘坐一辆特斯拉。

I really, really prefer to have a Tesla.

有时候你会遇到一个疲惫的Uber司机，而如果他们开启了FSD，我会感觉安全得多。

Just sometimes you get an Uber driver who's who's tired, and I just feel a lot safer if they have the FSD running.

当然，自己使用它也是非常棒的。

And then obviously, using it for yourself is amazing.

但我认为它的增长将继续以加速的态势持续累积。

But I think it's gonna continue compounding at an accelerating rate.

我认为在很多方面，总的来说，一段时间内，大型企业将成为赢家。

I think the in a lot of ways, what I'd say broadly is, I think for a while, it's going to be big businesses are winners.

那些明智使用人工智能的大型企业。

Big businesses that use AI thoughtfully.

原因是，正如O3向我们展示的那样，OpenAI的新模型结合了推理能力和测试时计算能力。

And the reason is is that with what is happening, what what o three showed us, OpenAI's new model, a combination of reasoning and test time compute.

比如，如果你是一家大企业，能够花一百万美元让AI为你最重要的商业问题思考六周，这将相对于无力承担这种成本的小企业形成巨大优势。

Like, I think you're if you're a big business and you can pay a million dollars to let an AI think for six weeks about the most important question for your business, that's gonna be a profound advantage relative to small businesses that can't afford that.

顺便说一句，我们作为推理算力的提供方，将是这一趋势的另一大受益者。

And by the way, we are the other like, inference compute is gonna be the the kind of derivative winner of that.

到2025年，我们将像2023年那样，再次面临GPU、加速器和算力短缺的问题。

We're gonna run out of GPUs, accelerators, compute in 2025 the same way we did in '23.

好的。

Okay.

所以你也看好英伟达和芯片制造商、Grok等公司，因为我们正在为这些算力找到新的用途。

So you're also long NVIDIA and chip makers, Grok, etcetera, because we're finding new uses for all that compute.

当然。

Absolutely.

好的。

Okay.

非常好。

Very good.

沙蒙特，您对2025年最大的商业赢家有什么预测吗，先生？

Shammoth, do you have a prediction for your biggest business winner of 2025, sir?

我认为2025年最大的商业赢家将是美元计价的稳定币。

I think the biggest business winner of 2025 are going to be dollar denominated stablecoins.

哦。

Oh.

我将提出两点。

I'll make two points.

在2024年，发生了两件关键的事情。

In 2024, two critical things happened.

第一，稳定币基本上与加密货币的波动性脱钩，并开始被用于企业运营中的实质性功能。

The first is that stablecoins essentially became uncoupled from crypto volatility and it started to be used for wholesale useful functions in running businesses.

这里有一张图可以展示这一点。

And there's an image here that starts to show that.

因此，与加密货币波动无关，您看到的是稳定币的使用量持续上升。

So independent of crypto volatility, what you saw were stablecoin usage just rising up into the right.

这是2024年发生的一个极其重要的脱钩现象。

That's an incredibly important decoupling that happened in 2024.

第二点，这些数据仍在陆续涌入，但这是一个惊人的统计数据。

The second, and this data is still just trickling in, but it's an incredible stat.

截至2024年底，稳定币的交易量约为11亿笔，总交易额达到8.5万亿美元。

Stablecoin usage at the end of the 2024 was about 1,100,000,000 transactions that summed to $8,500,000,000,000 of transaction volume.

如果将此与同期Visa的交易量相比，它超过了Visa交易量的两倍。

If you compare that to Visa over the same period, it was more than double Visa's transaction volume.

因此，我认为我们现在已彻底跨越了一个不可逆转的临界点。

So I think what we have now is something that has fundamentally crossed a point of no return.

就像去年我认为2024年的主要趋势将是比特币一样，我认为2025年的主要趋势将是稳定币的使用。

Similar to how last year I thought that the big trend was going to be Bitcoin in 2024, I would say that the big trend in '25 is stable coin usage.

我认为我们终于将挑战Visa和万事达卡的双头垄断格局。

I think we're going to finally attack the duopoly of Visa and Mastercard.

我相信你会看到无数种利用稳定币基础设施的应用场景。

I think you're going to see an innumerable number of use cases that sit and use stablecoin rails.

我认为当唐纳德·特朗普成为总统时，你会看到他针对极高的信用卡交易和费用采取行动。

I think when Donald Trump becomes president, I think you're gonna see him go after incredibly high credit card transactions and costs.

无论如何，由于这些高年利率，消费者信贷已经出现裂痕。

You're already seeing cracks in consumer credit anyways because of these high APRs.

我认为，所有这些事情将在2025年达到顶点。

All of this stuff is going to come to a head in 2025, I think.

我认为稳定币的数量在2025年可能增长三到四倍。

And I think stablecoins could quadruple or quintuple by the '25.

我认为

I think

这将只是一个

it's just gonna be

巨大的市场。

an enormous market.

绝佳的选择。

Great choice.

他们应该被监管吗，沙马夫？

Should they be regulated, Shamaf?

我们在一些国会听证会上看到，Tether 被指控是恐怖主义、规避制裁和人口贩卖的主要转账和货币工具，它应该被监管吗？如何监管？

We saw at some of these congressional hearings, Tether was kinda dragged for being the primary transfer and and monetary tool for terrorism, for getting around sanctions, and for human trafficking, should it be regulated, and how?

我不认为我有资格说应该如何监管，但关键在于，所有这些交易的中间和两侧都存在不可篡改的记录。

I I don't think I'm qualified to say how it should, but I think the point is that there are these immutable logs that sit in between and on either side of all of these transactions.

因此，我认为相关信息是存在的，而且有许多第三方服务提供了这一层智能分析。

And so I think the knowledge is there and there are a whole bunch of third party services that add that intelligence layer.

我认为真正需要质疑的是，如果你仅仅从全球经济中抽取300个基点的损耗，是的。

I think the the thing to really question is if you just took 300 basis points of drag Yes.

从全球经济中抽取300个基点的损耗。

Out of the global economy

巨大的收益。

Massive gains.

这会带来多大的价值？

Valuable would that be?

我认为，仅在美国，这就能带来高达一万亿美元的价值。

And I think it would be valuable just in The United States alone to the tune of a trillion dollars.

因此，到目前为止还不采取行动的想法在我看来有些令人费解。

So the idea that you wouldn't do it at this point is somewhat quizzical to me.

我觉得，现在从经济角度来论证这一点的必要性已经非常深刻了。

So I just think that the economic justification for this now is just so profound.

加文，我也想问你一个棘手的问题。

Gavin, let me ask you a hard question there as well.

美国政府是否应该放弃——坦白说——

Should the United States government give up the let's face it.

你知道，他们对美元确实有一定的控制力。

You know, they they have a bit of a stranglehold.

他们对美元拥有一定的垄断地位。

They've got a bit of a monopoly on US dollars.

这些事物是一种竞争者。

These things are a competitor.

过去几年里，我们在这个节目中一直讨论砖块公司开始发行自己的货币。

And we were sitting here on this program for the last couple of years talking about the bricks and them starting their own currency.

这些在某种程度上不是和那类似吗？它们会让人脱离美元标准吗？

Aren't these in some ways similar to that, and they would take people off the USD standard?

你怎么看这个问题？

How do you look at that?

因为这是某些当权者提出的一种批评。

Because that is the criticism that some people in power have put forward.

我认为它们对世界可能非常有利，但我确实认为，如果它们取代了美元，对美国来说会非常不利。

I do I do think that they might be very good for the world, but I do think they would be very bad for America if they replaced

如果

if

如果一系列稳定币成为新的储备货币，能够以本国货币借款是一种巨大的优势，轻易放弃这一点是不明智的。

some constellation of stablecoins became the new reserve currency, it is such a an advantage to be able to borrow in your own currency and to give that up lightly.

这意味着你始终掌控着你债务的实际规模。

That just that means you control you you you control the real size of your debt at all times.

哦，天哪。

Oh, wow.

我们有着巨额债务。

We have a big big debt.

我的意思是，这有点像我们刚才做的。

I mean, this is a little bit like what we just did.

让我们让通胀保持高位，哇。

Let's just have let's just let inflation run hot and, wow.

这笔债务实际上比以前小多了。

That debt's a lot smaller than it was effectively.

所以我认为这会是一个巨大的错误。

So I think it would be a big mistake.

弗里伯格，你对此有什么看法吗？

Freeberg, you have any thoughts on it?

在过去的几年里，我们一直在讨论货币问题。

We we've been talking about currency here a whole bunch over the last couple years.

关于稳定币以及我们对它的垄断，你有什么想法吗？

Any thoughts on stablecoins and and just the monopoly we have on it?

我对稳定币了解不多。

I I don't know enough about stablecoins.

这将是我们今年的重要话题之一，我们 definitely 应该邀请来自 USD 或 USDC 的杰里米·艾雷尔。

Well, that'll be one of our big topics for the year, and we should definitely invite Jeremy Allaire from USD on or USDC USDC.

我顺便提一下，我有一个小产品，向外界公开了，就是我们的研究，我们把它放在 Substack 上。

Jeremy Allaire, I mentioned, by the way, that I had this small little product that I exposed to the world, which is just our research, and we sit it on top of Substack.

再说一遍，这些工具并不好用。

Again, the tools aren't very good.

我们使用 Stripe。

And we use Stripe.

杰里米联系了我，他说：我会用美元稳定币重新构建你的所有支付系统。

And Jeremy reached out to me and he's like, I'll just rebuild all of your payment rails on using US dollar stablecoins.

这显而易见，因为我现在每月在交易费用上花费数十万美元，而这些钱现在可以省下来，用于雇佣其他人或给团队发更多工资。

And it's a no brainer because I'm spending hundreds of thousands of dollars in transaction costs that now I can just save and use to hire somebody else or just pay the team more.

所以我认为

And so I think

支付10%给Substack和3%的费用。

paying 10% to Substack and the 3%.

是的。

Yeah.

如果这对我说是显而易见的，那对其他人来说也是显而易见的。

If it's obvious for me, it's obvious for everybody else.

好的。

All right.

我对于2025年最大的商业成功预测是特斯拉和谷歌。

My biggest business winner prediction for 2025 is Tesla and Google.

我认为今年将是人工智能和机器人技术的年份，这显而易见。

I think this is going to be the year of AI and robotics, obviously.

但我对谷歌在人工智能领域的强势回归感到无比惊叹，我对埃隆在Colossus上所做的一切也深感敬畏。

But I am just absolutely amazed at the comeback that Google has made with AI, and I'm absolutely in awe of what Elon did with Colossus.

如果你们还不知道的话，黄仁勋、迈克尔·戴尔显然都参与了xAI的建设，他们感到非常震惊。

If those of you don't know, Jensen Huang, Michael Dell, they all obviously participated in building out xAI, and they were shocked.

他们不敢相信，他们竟然在不到四十五天的时间里搭建了十万张GPU，是这样吗，加文？

They couldn't believe that they stood up a 100,000 GPUs in under forty five days, was it, Gavin?

是的。

Yeah.

大概就是这个数量级。

Something in that neighborhood.

这是一项了不起的壮举。

It was a tremendous effort.

而且，你知道，我只是说特斯拉。

And, you know, I just Tesla.

对吧？

Right?

那是特斯拉吗？

Is that Tesla?

嗯，埃隆、特斯拉、xAI 和谷歌。

Well, Elon, Tesla, x AI, and Google.

这些大力投资人工智能的公司，尤其是这三家公司，我认为明年将成为最大的赢家。

That cohort who are investing heavily in AI, those two specifically, those two three names, I think, are gonna be the biggest winners next year.

它们将推出一些人们意想不到的产品。

They're gonna come out with some things that people didn't anticipate.

我认为人们没有预料到谷歌会推出什么，因为 Gemini 深度研究功能，我一直在跟人说，而且我一直在用这个应用，真的非常出色。

I don't I don't think people are anticipating what Google's gonna come out with because Gemini deep research, I keep telling people this, and I'm using the app, is so impressive.

现在立刻放下你手头的事情。

Drop what you're doing right now.

暂停这个播客。

Pause the podcast.

下载 Gemini，然后在你的电脑上开始体验深度研究功能。

Download Gemini, and just start playing with deep research on your desktop.

花 20 美元购买它。

Pay the $20 for it.

这太令人震惊了。

It is mind blowing.

它把市场上其他任何东西都远远甩在了后面，毫无疑问。

It blows anything else in the market out of the water, period.

就此打住。

Full stop.

这是一个质的飞跃。

It is a step function higher.

好吧。

Alright.

我就说到这里。

I'll just leave it at that.

杰森，你不该融入一下播客的氛围吗？

Jason, shouldn't you just go into the vibe of the podcast?

你不该解释一下这是什么吗？

Shouldn't you explain what it is?

你抱歉什么。

What you Sorry.

好的。

Okay.

所以它的作用是，好主意。

So what it does is Good call.

好主意。

Good call.

嗯。

Yeah.

如果你想要创建一个模型，比如说，我就做过这样的事，我说：嘿。

If you wanted to create a model, let's say, and I did this where I said, hey.

根据要取代美国所有汽车和行程所需的全自动驾驶汽车，给我设计一个模型？

Make me a model based upon what it would take to replace all the cars and trips in The United States with full self driving cars?

这样做需要多少成本？

What would that cost to do?

如果你问ChatGPT、Brock或者Claude，它们会给出一个不错的答案。

And if you ask that to ChatGPT or Brock or, you know, Claude, it's gonna give you a decent answer.

深度研究的作用是找出每个问题的子组成部分，然后同时启动多个线程。

What deep research does is it goes and it figures out what the subcomponents of each of those questions would be, and then it fires off multiple threads.

然后它会实时搜索网络，而谷歌在这方面非常擅长。

And then it searches the web in real time, which Google is extremely good at.

接着它会进行总结，提供引用，并生成一份报告，看起来就像是高德纳集团、麦肯锡或波士顿咨询公司花了三十天、五十万到一百万美元才做出来的。

And then it summarizes it, gives citations, and it produces a report that looks like something that Gartner Group, McKinsey, Boston Consulting Group would have spent, I don't know, thirty days on Gavin and a million dollars, a half million dollars.

这效果太惊人了，但所需的计算量也极其庞大。

It's bonkers how good this is, but the amount of compute it takes is extraordinary.

这就是为什么ChatGPT推出了类似的产品，每月200美元，他们称之为O1 Pro。

That's why ChetGPT released something similar that's $200 a month, the o one pro, I think they call it.

而这个Gemini的产品只要20美元左右。

And then this one is, like, $20 from Gemini.

无论如何，考虑到谷歌能访问的数据——YouTube、你的Google Drive、你的Google文档等等，还有你的Gmail，它能完成一些你意想不到的事情。

Anyway, given what Google has access to, YouTube, your G Drive, your Google Docs, etcetera, your Gmail, it's gonna do things that you wouldn't anticipate.

比如，如果你问这个问题，它可能会查看你的邮箱，寻找回答这些问题的可能性，或者你订阅的YouTube频道的视频。

Like, if you were asking this question, it might look in your Gmail for possibilities to answer those questions or YouTube videos of channels you subscribe to.

所以我认为，这将让人惊叹不已，并解决人们连自己都没意识到的问题。

So this is going to, I think, knock people's socks off and solve problems that people didn't know they had.

这个解释够好吗，加文？

Is that a pretty good explanation, Gavin?

是的。

Yeah.

我觉得非常好。

I think it's great.

去年，我们的商业赢家预测中，查马特提到的是自筹资金或盈利的初创公司。

For last year, our predictions for business winner, Chamat said bootstrapped or end or profitable startups.

我觉得这个预测非常棒，而且真的实现了。

I think that's a really great pick, that came to pass.

我们现在看到一些这样的公司上市，以更高的估值融资，或者至少没有倒闭。

We're seeing some of those go public and raise money at higher valuations or not go out of business.

弗里德伯格，你提到的是商品类企业。

Friedberg, you said commodities businesses.

我不确定它们表现如何。

I'm not sure how that did.

你知道吗？

Do you know?

你是不是说‘Pretty’？

Did you Pretty

基本持平。

pretty flat.

嗯。

Yeah.

我们并没有太多……好吧。

We didn't have a lot of the Okay.

我认为支撑这一观点的通胀压力。

Inflationary pressures that I think were underlying that thesis.

明白了。

So Got it.

结果它成了今年相比其他你可以买入的指数的输家。

It ended up being, I'd say, a loser relative to other indices you could have bought this year.

我说的是像Reddit、纽约时报、谷歌这样的训练数据所有者。

I said training data owners like Reddit, New York Times, Google, etcetera.

Reddit股票在2024年上涨了24%，并且他们推出了自己的Reddit回答功能。

Reddit stock up to 24% in 2024, and they launched their own Reddit answers.

说得好。

Good call.

是的。

Yeah.

我想我这次猜对了。

I think I got that one.

纽约时报的股票也上涨了，而且他们对OpenAI提起了诉讼。

New York Times stock is up as well, and they fired off that lawsuit with OpenAI.

好的。

Alright.

现在我们来讨论2024年最糟糕的商业预测，关于2025年的。

Now we're gonna move on to the 2025 biggest business loser predictions in 2024.

Shammat认为是职业体育球队，因为它们的估值已经见顶。

Shammat said pro sports teams because they hit peak valuations.

这看起来是个相当不错的预测。

That's looking like a pretty good prediction.

Friepberg，你说的是垂直领域SaaS公司，因为AI的冲击。

Friepberg, you said vertical SaaS companies because of AI disruption.

这也是一个看起来非常出色的预测。

That's another one that seems like a great prediction.

我说的是智能手机制造商。

I said smartphone manufacturers.

苹果股票在2024年上涨了30%，但我认为我们都看到了，这些智能手机已经停滞不前，人们也在延长换机周期。

Apple stock was up 30% in 2024, but I think we've all seen that these smartphones aren't advancing and people are taking their times.

这些产品的销量下降了。

The sales of those are down.

服务业务增长了。

Services are up.

我对职业体育球队的看法正好相反。

I would take the other side on pro sports teams.

我觉得这个市场即将被机构化，基金将开始收购职业体育球队。

It feels like that market is about to be institutionalized and funds are gonna start buying pro sports teams

好的。

Okay.

最终，资本市场拥有的资源远超目前一直从事这项投资的富裕个人。

That ultimately and ultimately, capital markets have way more resources than kind of the wealthy individuals who've done it for now to date.

所以我认为，能够投入职业体育球队的资金即将增加十倍、甚至百倍。

So I just think it's the amount of money that can go after pro sports teams is about to, you know, 10 x, a 100 x.

不。

No.

我觉得你说得完全对。

I think I think you're totally right.

我去年之所以这么说，是因为当时对我来说很明显，NBA就是专业体育观众人数下滑的预警信号。

The the reason I said that last year was it was pretty clear to me at the time, and the NBA was the canary in the coal mine that there was a viewership problem in professional sports.

特别是NBA，比赛已经退化为几乎全是篮板、扣篮或三分球。

And specifically in the NBA, the game has devolved into essentially rebounds and dunks or three pointers.

而问题在于，这使得比赛变得明显没那么有趣了。

And the issue with that is that it becomes just meaningfully less interesting to watch.

同时，由于电视转播合同实际上是决定这些体育球队折现价值的关键因素，而转播合同金额巨大，导致不再有可靠的球队对抗关系，因为人们几乎每年都会换队，因为能拿到的报酬实在太离谱了。

At the same time, because of the fact that the TV deals are really what determines the discounted value of these sports franchises, The TV deal was so enormous that it creates no reliable rivalries anymore because people will hopscotch teams almost every year because the compensation that they can get is just so obscene, quite honestly.

我认为，体育赛事会在下一轮电视转播合同签订前维持一段不错的势头。

And I think what happens is sports will have a decent run until the next TV deals get done.

我认为，如果你把制药广告从电视上移除，比如这个广告市场就会萎缩。

And I think if you, for example, take pharma ads outside of TV, so like that pool shrinks.

如果观众人数减少，那么剩下的广告就更难有效销售，因为观众基数变小了，买家也更少，市场进一步萎缩，电视网络和流媒体平台愿意为体育赛事支付的金额就会下降。

If you have less viewership and so you can sell the remaining ads less effectively because there's just fewer of them and then there's fewer buyers and it shrinks yet again, then the dollar pool that the television networks and the streamers are going to be willing to pay for sports will go down.

而对价格最敏感的群体，正是你所说的那些非奖杯型买家。

And the group that will be the most price sensitive are exactly who you said, Gavin, meaning the non trophy buyers.

比如，当我买入勇士队时，纯粹是把它当作一个奖杯资产，我对价格毫不敏感。

So like, you know, when I bought into the Warriors, bought it purely as a trophy asset and I was price insensitive.

但我同意你的观点，现在私募股权公司已经进入了这些体育俱乐部的资本结构，这些人全是做现金流折现模型的，全是靠Excel建模的。

But I agree with you that now that you have the PE firms on the cap tables of these sports franchises, those folks are all DCFs, those folks are all Excel models.

我不认为他们是出于情感而购买的。

I don't think that they're buying things for emotion.

我不认为他们从小就想拥有这样一支球队，而不是用机构有限合伙人的资金。

I don't think they've grown up thinking I wanna own this thing, not using institutional LP dollars.

所以这就是为什么我在2024年这么说，我只是觉得……

So I just think that's why that's why I said that in '24, so I just

代表菲尔·赫尔穆特和我，我们感谢你做了这项虚荣型投资，让我们有那么多机会坐在你的场边座位上。

On behalf of Phil Hellmuth and I, we appreciate you made that vanity investment for the number of times we got to sit in your courtside seats.

是的。

Yeah.

因为我从来没去过比赛。

Because I never went to the games.

我们和NBA球员一起。

We made with NBA players.

太好了。

That's great.

我从来没去过比赛。

I never went to the games.

我应该

I should

多去看几场比赛。

have gone to more games.

我去过你的比赛，差点被从你的座位上赶出去。

I went to your games and almost got thrown out of your seats.

我有一次拿到了红牌。

I got a red card one time.

是真的。

It's true.

是真的吗？

Is it true?

你真的吗？

You did?

哦，你不知道那是怎么开始的吗？

Oh, you don't know that started?

得到了一个否。

Got a No.

我接到一个电话。

I got a call.

我接到一个电话。

I got a call.

我觉得

I think

那是来自勇士队的，或者说是

it was from the warriors or it's

来自NBA，大概是关于查马斯的事。

from the NBA, something to the effect of Chamath.

坐在你座位上的那个家伙差点被赶出去。

This guy that was sitting in your seats was almost kicked out.

我说，抱歉？

And I said, excuse me?

因为我知道

Because I knew

那场是尼克斯队的比赛，公平地说。

that it was the Knicks game in fairness.

而且他一直在跟我们自己的球员吵嘴。

And and he was, like, jawboning our own players.

我和博古特、大卫·李发生了争执，因为我告诉他们

I was getting into it with Bogut and with David Lee because I told

你简直难以置信。

you it was unbelievable.

我告诉史蒂夫·科尔：听着。

I told Steve Kerr, listen.

你们领先我的尼克斯队30分了。

You're up 30 on my Knicks.

让这些球员休息吧。

Sit these guys down.

这太不专业了。

This is Bush League.

如果斯蒂芬·库里在那里受伤了怎么办？

What if Steph Curry gets hurt out there?

博古特告诉我闭嘴，别对安德烈·伊戈达拉嚷嚷。

Like, and, you know, Bogut told me to shut up on Andre Iguodeau.

博古特让他差不多去滚蛋，更

Bogut told him to basically go pound sand in a more

一种生动的方式。

colorful way.

做到了。

Did.

这太好笑了，加文。

That was the funniest thing ever, Gavin.

这就是当你得到

This is what happens when you get

博古特是我们朋友之一，他也是我们的

Bogut's one of our friends, and he's one of our

好朋友。

good friends.

所以才这么好笑。

That's why it's so funny.

但如果他们不行，他们就会来找弗里德伯格，然后拍你的肩膀。

But if they can't they come over Friedberg, and they tap you on the shoulder.

我和我妻子在一起。

I'm with my wife.

她羞得不行。

She's mortified.

那个人递给你一张卡片，上面写着：你只被警告过一次，关于你那种虐待行为。

And the guy hands you a card, and the card says, you've been warned one time and one time only about abusive, you know, behavior.

如果我们不得不再警告你一次，你就会被请出去。

If we have to warn you one more time, you will be escorted out.

太荒谬了。

Ridiculous.

所以我看着那个人，我说，但他让我看卡片。

So I look at the guy and I say, but and he goes, read the card.

我看了卡片。

I read the card.

我说，他朝我竖起了大拇指。

I say, he goes, gives me a thumbs up.

就这样结束了。

That was it.

我再也没有

I never

就这样结束了。

That was it.

本，你本来不应该这样的，三年后，我坐在同样的座位上。

You're not supposed to Ben, three years later, I'm sitting in the same seats.

我在总决赛比赛中和德雷蒙德互动，然后大家都装模作样地对待这件事。

I'm interacting with Draymond during the finals games, and then everybody's hokey dokey

对此。

with it.

你说的‘互动’是什么意思？什么叫互动？

When you say interacting what do mean when you say interacting?

等等。

Wait.

等一下。

Hold on.

加文想谈谈关于什么的问题。

Gavin Gavin wanted to make a point about what

我刚才在说。

I was just saying.

不。

No.

我只是想。

Just wanna

我们还是回到贾马尔吧，因为我确定，私募股权人士都是DCF专家。

Just just come back to Jamal because I for sure, private equity guys are d DCFs.

NBA一直管理得很糟糕。

The NBA has been terribly managed.

我认为勒布朗说他们有个大问题。

I think LeBron said they have a big problem.

你知道吗？

You know?

我会说，NBA是管理得最差的。

And I'd separate the NBA is the worst managed.

NFL可能是管理得最好的。

NFL is probably the best managed.

但关于电视转播权，我想提一个相反的观点：谷歌购买了周日票务，而且对此非常满意。

But the one kind of counterpoint I would say on the TV rights is Google bought Sunday Ticket and are extremely happy with it.

亚马逊和奈飞也购买了NFL的比赛转播权，它们对这些交易都非常满意。

Amazon and Netflix also bought you know, both bought NFL games and are really happy with them.

所以我认为，对于这三家公司来说，制药广告是否消失其实并不重要。

And so I just think those three companies, it doesn't really matter to them if pharma ads go away.

十八个月内，你将能够为每个个体动态创建广告并展示给他们。

In eighteen months, you're gonna be able to dynamically create an ad for each individual person and show it to them.

如果你是一个高价值用户，而谷歌知道你即将预订度假，它们就会动态生成你想要的酒店目的地，并显示‘点击这里’。

And if you're a high value user with a you know, that Google knows that you're about to book a vacation, you know, they'll dynamically generate, you know, whatever, you know, hotel destinations you want and show click here.

所以我认为，只要体育赛事还能吸引如此多的观众，而如果NBA不加以改进，这些球队的价值就会开始下降。

So I just think sports, as long as they command the eyeballs that they do, and I sure, if the NBA doesn't fix it, the value of those franchises will start to decline.

但仅仅因为所有最大的科技公司都对它们购买的体育转播权非常满意，它们会继续全部买下。

But just the fact that all of the biggest tech companies are so happy with the sports kind of rights that they bought, they're gonna buy them all.

每项体育赛事都会被这些公司之一掌控。

Every sport will be one those companies.

加文，也许你更接近这个情况，但为什么苹果、亚马逊或谷歌不直接大举收购NBA，说：我们全要了，然后任何拥有iPhone的人都可以免费观看NBA，其他人则需要付费，它们在后台自己解决。

Gavin, maybe maybe you're closer to this, but why wouldn't Apple, Amazon, or Google just back up the truck to the NBA and say, we'll take the whole thing, And then anybody who's got an iPhone gets the NBA for free, and then everybody else has to pay, and they figure it out in the back end.

它们会亏损大约50亿美元。

They lose a, you know, 5,000,000,000.

但它们能赚20亿美元。

They make 2,000,000,000.

谁在乎呢？

Who cares?

这对苹果来说只是个四舍五入的误差。

It's a rounding error for Apple.

我同意。

I agree.

而且他们，我的意思是，除了苹果之外，其他公司都这样。

And they, you know, I mean, they all all except for Apple really.

苹果公司似乎有一份MLS的协议，但他们都只是试探性地涉足了。

And Apple, they have, I think, an MLS deal, but they all kind of stuck their toe in the water.

我觉得他们觉得，哇，水温挺暖和的。

And I think they feel like, wow, the water's warm.

那我们就跳进去吧。

Let's dive in.

好的。

Okay.

是的。

Yeah.

新的协议是NBA为期十一年的合同，所以这类机会并不常见。

And the new deal is an eleven year deal for the NBA, so these things don't come up that often.

但我们会随着时间的推移看到结果。

But we'll see over time.

也许有人会收购其中一家媒体公司，从而继承它们。

Maybe somebody will buy one of these media companies and inherit them.

好的。

Okay.

2025年最大的商业输家。

Biggest business loser for 2025.

你的预测是什么，加文·贝克？

What's your prediction, Gavin Baker?

政府服务提供商。

Government service providers.

你确实如此

You do

你绝对不希望美国政府在任何层级上占你收入的35%以上。

not you do not wanna have the United States government at any level as over 35% of your revenue.

好选择。

Good choice.

是的。

Yes.

显然，在狗狗币时代，他们可能不会大手大脚花钱，反而会去看账单。

Obviously, the age of Doge, they might not be spending wildly, and they might actually look at the bill.

他们可能会核对账单。

They might check the bill.

疯狂的想法。

Crazy thought.

疯狂的想法。

Crazy thought.

嗯。

Yeah.

真的去核对账单，这想法太疯狂了。

Crazy thought to actually check the bill.

你永远不知道。

You never know.

沙莫特，你预测2025年谁会是最大的商业输家？

Shammoth, who do you predict will be the biggest business loser of 2025?

这有点棘手，但我不知道从现在开始会下跌多少百分比。

Well, this is a little bit precarious, but I don't know what the percentage drawdown from here will be.

但我认为，当我们回望时，七巨头的绝对美元跌幅将达到数万亿美元。

But I think when we look back, the absolute dollar drawdown of the mag seven will be in the trillions of dollars.

好的。

Okay.

原因并不一定是这些公司的基本面出了问题，但我有点担心，几天前我发过一条推文，谈到指数中前七、八、九、十家公司的过度集中。

And the reason is not necessarily because of the underlying fundamentals of these companies, But I am a little bit worried and I tweeted this a few days ago about just the general concentration of the top seven, eight, nine, ten companies in the indices.

我认为这一比例已接近40%。

I think it's approaching 40%.

我认为，当看到历史上这种高度集中时，它们通常预示着大幅下跌。

And I think that when you look at these historic concentrations, they've generally foreshadowed a big drawdown.

不幸的是，我看不出你如何能规避这种风险。

And unfortunately, I don't see how you can sort of, you know, inoculate yourself from that risk.

因此，不管这些公司的质量如何，因为我认为这些公司都是卓越的企业，但我认为你确实过于集中了，我认为这为回调和回吐埋下了伏笔。

So independent of the quality of these companies, because I think these companies are exceptional businesses, I do think you've just had too much concentration and I think it it is a setup to re trade and give back.

在这种情况下，跌幅甚至可能达到10%。

In that, it could even be 10%.

但科技八巨头下跌10%将意味着数万亿美元的损失。

But 10% in the mag eight will be a couple trillion bucks.

因此，从绝对金额来看，

And so on a absolute dollars would

会是很大的数字。

be a lot.

是的。

Yeah.

绝对金额。

An absolute dollar.

这太多了。

It's a lot.

好的。

Okay.

弗赖堡，你预测谁？

Freiburg, who do you predict?

你预测的是七巨头和政府服务提供商，盖文。

You predict mag seven, government service providers for you, Gavin.

弗赖堡，你预测2025年最大的商业输家会是谁？

Freiburg, who do you predict will be the biggest business loser of 2025?

我和盖文的想法差不多。

I'm I'm sort of on the same vein as Gavin.

我选的是传统的国防和航空航天公司，比如波音、洛克希德·马丁、雷神公司。

I went with the kind of old defense and aerospace providers, Boeing, Lockheed Martin, Raytheon

防御1.0。

Defense one point o.

受中国主导地位推动，以及美国国防预算需要转向更注重技术、回报率驱动的理性化、定价和支出调整的影响。

Driven by kind of China dominance, driven by US defense budgets that I think are gonna need to shift towards a more kind of tech oriented and ROI driven rationalization and pricing and spend.

因此，像Palantir和Andor这样的公司显然会受益。

So be it Palantirs and Andoros, obviously, the world will benefit.

我也觉得，这些企业在规模化过程中出现了大量失败。

And I also just think, like, there's a lot of failure at scale with these businesses.

正如我们在波音公司的太空项目中看到的2024年失败，以及其飞机业务面临的挑战，这些企业变得过于笨重和官僚化。

They've gotten too clunky and too bureaucratic as we've seen with Boeing from their space program, failure in 2024, to the challenges with their their airplane business.

但我认为，随着大量新力量的涌入，整个政府合同业务今年都将面临严峻挑战。

But I think that this government contracting business across the board is gonna be deeply challenged this year with all the new blood.

所以你的意思是，成本加成模式的企业将受苦，而天使企业将蓬勃发展，谢玛？

So the cost plus are gonna suffer is what you're saying, and the angels will thrive, Shema?

你们能提一个问题吗？

Would you guys add just a question.

你们会不会也把传统的咨询公司纳入这个讨论中？

Would you guys add the traditional consulting companies then to the mix as well?

就像

Like,

这也是个不错的观点。

you That's can a good point too.

是的。

Yeah.

非常好的观点。

A great one.

是的。

Yeah.

我们认为我们刚才谈到的深度

We think what we talked about with deep

比如OnePros、塔塔公司、HCL、埃森哲

Like the OnePros, the Tata's, the HCL's, the Accenture's

凯捷、HCL。

Cognizant's, HCL's.

EME的这些公司，如果这种情况也发生的话，它们都将陷入真正的困境。

The EMY's, all these folks then are in real trouble if that if that also happens.

没错。

That's right.

你的意思是，它们所获得的效率提升也会被客户感受到，而客户可能就不雇佣它们了。

You mean, you the efficiency that they'll gain will also be felt by their customers, and their customers might not hire them.

当有一群软件创业者正在为联邦政府提供如何运营其业务的建议和指导时，我敢肯定，一些这类服务提供商将会被淘汰。

When you got a bunch of software entrepreneurs that are now advising and informing the federal government on how to run their their operations, I'm pretty sure that some of these service providers are gonna get washed out.

所以这是个好主意。

So it's a good idea.

需要记住的是，成本加成只是‘工时与材料’的一种更花哨的说法。

The thing to keep in mind is like cost plus is a fancier way of saying time and materials.

而‘工时与材料’不过是‘人力套利’的一种委婉说法。

And time and materials is a fancy way of saying human labor arbitrage.

我认为，所有这些在2025年都将受到极为严格的审查，因为如果你正在购买800美元的垃圾桶、9000美元的雨伞架，都是因为工时与材料以及其他系统中各种荒谬的开支，而一旦这些东西都被清理掉，许多这类公司及其商业模式都将面临巨大压力。

And I think that all of that stuff will get extremely scrutinized in 2025 because if you are buying, you know, dollars 800 wastebaskets and, you know, dollars 9,000 umbrella hangers because of time and materials and all of this other crazy stuff that's in the system and all of that gets washed out, then a lot of these folks and their business models will will get put under severe stress.

你给我看一个激励机制，我就给你看结果。

The alignments, you know, you show me an incentive, I'll show you the outcome.

成本加成的激励机制就是保持低效和浪费。

The alignment of cost plus is to just keep being inefficient and and waste.

这些国防承包商从每件弹药或车辆的价格中拿走了百分之六十、七十甚至八十。

And and these defense contractors are taking sixty, seventy, 80% off the price of each piece of munitions or vehicle.

是的。

Yeah.

成本加成太糟糕了。

Cost plus was terrible.

不。

No.

就是成本加成太糟糕了。

Just cost plus is terrible.

就这些。

That's all.

对于我最大的商业亏损预测，我不得不回顾我曾经批评过的许多人。

For my biggest business loser prediction, I had to go through a lot of the people I've criticized.

我过去一年并没有主动挑起争端。

I didn't start fights with over the past year.

商业地产浮现在我脑海中，因为这些租赁合同还会不断出现，我认为他们只是在拖延问题。

Commercial real estate came to mind because these leases are gonna keep coming up, and I think, like, they kick the can down the road a little bit.

所以我从这里开始。

So I started there.

然后我看了MicroStrategy，他们以比特币账面价值的两到四倍交易，这让我觉得不可思议，我认为这不可持续。

Then I looked at MicroStrategies, and that made no sense to me that they were trading at two, three, four times the book value of their Bitcoin, and I think that's not sustainable.

我看了Truth Social，它的收入只有四五百万美元，估值却高达70亿美元。

I looked at Truth Social, which is like doing 4 or $5,000,000 in revenue and is valued at 7,000,000,000.

这完全没有任何逻辑可言。

That makes absolute no logical sense.

但我认为，在这一切之中，最被高估、并且将看到其估值峰值的是OpenAI。

But I think the one that is the most overpriced of of all of this, and I think is going to see their peak valuation is OpenAI.

我认为OpenAI面临的逆风因素被严重低估了。

I think the headwinds for OpenAI are being absolutely underappreciated.

就像我之前在上一个预测中说的，谷歌正在大获全胜。

Like I said before in my previous one, my previous prediction, Google is kicking ass.

X AI才刚刚起步，正在大力构建庞大的计算基础设施。

X AI is just getting started and building out so much big iron.

微软在另一个播客中几乎笑开了花，说OpenAI把源代码卖给他们，而他们根本不再需要OpenAI了，因为他们已经拥有一切。

Microsoft was basically on another podcast almost, like, laughing at OpenAI for selling them the source code and that they didn't even need OpenAI anymore because they had it all.

他们根本不需要OpenAI，而且他们掌控着所有大型计算设备。

They don't need them, and they own all the big iron.

我认为OpenAI的估值毫无道理。

I I think OpenAI's valuation made no sense.

我认为他们无法继续维持目前的定价水平。

I don't think they're gonna be able to keep charging the prices they're charging.

我认为AWS、苹果、谷歌、X AI这一群体将彻底压垮这1570亿美元的估值，使其成为该公司的最高估值。

And I think AWS, Apple, Google, x AI, this cohort are going to really take that $157,000,000,000 valuation and make it the peak valuation of the company.

而且我认为，他们确实有非零的可能性会失去这一过程，即在将1570亿美元的价值从非营利组织转移到营利性实体的过程中面临这些诉讼。

And I do I do think they there's a nonzero chance they could lose their process and these court cases of transferring a $157,000,000,000 in value from a nonprofit into a for profit.

我认为整个事情可能会彻底崩盘

I think that whole thing could blow up in

萨姆的预测是，OpenAI在2025年无法将非营利组织转为营利性实体。

Sam's prediction is OpenAI will not be able to convert from nonprofit to for profit in 2025.

那只是其中一小部分，但这是一个非常有趣的超级预测。

That that's a small piece of it, but that's a really interesting super prediction.

此处插入Polymarket图表。

Insert Polymarket graphic here.

超级预测。

Super prediction.

OpenAI会完成转型吗？

Will OpenAI convert?

这是否在

Is that In

2025年。

2025.

是的。

Yeah.

顺便说一下，我认为根据泄露的财务数据，他们预计明年会有120亿美元的收入，J Cal。

By the way, you know, they're projecting, I think, in the the the leaked financials 12,000,000,000 revenue next year, J Cal.

所以，与你之前提到的许多其他事情不同，这是一家拥有真实收入、真实规模、真实增长和真实技术的公司。

So unlike a lot of the other things you were talking about, this is a real business with real revenue, real scale, real growth, real technology.

它和所谓的投机股或成为某种...

It's it's a little bit distinct from kinda being a meme stock or being a

没错。

Exactly.

这就是我选择它的原因，因为我认为选一只投机股很容易。

That's why I'm picking it because I think it's easy to pick a meme stock.

但选一家真正的公司就更难了。

It's harder to pick a real company.

但我确实认为，这些收入中很大一部分来自消费者，另一部分来自开发者。

But I do think that that revenue, which, you know, a lot of it is consumer and a lot of it is developers.

我知道所有的开发者都希望做开源。

The developers I know all wanna do open source.

他们不想被迫依赖OpenAI和萨姆·阿尔特曼。

They don't wanna have to be beholden to OpenAI and Sam Altman.

他们更愿意这样做，而且已经将自己的查询分散到多个不同的技术栈上，并尝试不同的方案。

They would much rather and they're already setting their queries across multiple different stacks and trying different ones.

我认为他们对OpenAI、Gemini或这些服务没有任何忠诚度。

I don't think there's any loyalty to OpenAI or Gemini or any of these services.

我认为他们最终会转向开源，很多情况下都是如此。总之，这就是我对OpenAI的看法。

I think they'll just go with eventually open source in many So, anyway, that's my thought on OpenAI.

2025年，最大的商业交易。

2025, biggest business deal.

Shammoth，你有什么看法？

What do you got, Shammoth?

你对2025年最大的商业交易的预测是什么，沙莫特？

What's your biggest business deal for 2025 prediction, Shammoth?

你有什么看法？

What do you got?

你去年说星链要上市。

You said Starlink to go public last year.

但这件事还没发生。

That hasn't happened yet.

第一点。

One.

是的。

Yeah.

我确实一直在关注这件事。

Totally worked on that one.

我认为今年我们将看到传统汽车制造商的崩溃。

I think that this is the year that we will see the collapse of the traditional auto OEMs.