亚当·卡罗拉谈加州崩溃：火灾、领导失败与女性法西斯主义

好吧。

Alright.

所以，无论是消防队长还是美国副总统，如果你把人选范围限制在有色人种女性身上，那可选的人就会少很多。

So whether it's the fire chief or whether it's the vice president of The United States, if you're gonna limit your pool to women of color, there's gonna be a lot.

可能是消防队长。

It could be fire chiefs.

可能是副总统，也可能是航空公司飞行员。

It could be vice presidents, and it could be airline pilots.

无论如何，如果你把人选范围限制在有色人种女性身上，或者限制粉刷工、屋顶工这类职业，只要你把屋顶工的候选池限定为有色人种女性，你就很难找到合格的屋顶工，而且还得等很久。

Either way, if you're gonna limit that pool or guys who put on stucco, either way, you're gonna if you limit your pool of roofers to women of color, you're gonna have a hard time finding a qualified roofer and you're gonna have to wait a while.

所以，第一，产品质量会受到影响。

So you the product is going to suffer, number one.

第二，你小时候看到和你长相相似的人扮演007或者美国总统之类角色，这种事在四十年前还算是一个相当崇高的追求。

Number two, the the part where you kind of grow up and see people who look like you being James Bond or being the president of The United States and that kind of stuff, I would say forty years ago was a pretty noble pursuit.

但我觉得今天已经没必要了。

I don't think it's necessary today.

所有那些炒作种族问题的人都以为还是1959年，他们从不承认我们曾经有过一位黑人总统连任两届，而我们社会中最受尊敬的人——我不知道是奥普拉、勒布朗·詹姆斯还是米歇尔·奥巴马——他们都深受喜爱，人们热爱女性，热爱有色人种。你知道，每个白人孩子长大后都想成为迈克尔·乔丹。

All the race hustlers act like it's 1959, they never admit that we, you know, we had a black president for two terms and the most celebrated people in our society, I don't know if it's Oprah or LeBron James or Michelle Obama, they love women, they love people of color, like, you know, every white kid grows up wanting to be Michael Jordan.

你知道，我们已经超越了那个阶段。

You know, we're sort of past that point.

你认为这会成为下一届政治周期的核心驱动力吗？

Do you think that this is like what is now gonna be the core driver of politics in this next cycle?

我们即将进入一个非常疯狂的2026年。

We're going into a pretty crazy 2026.

社会主义正在大幅崛起。

There's this big rise in socialism.

反动的一方则认为，明尼苏达州发生了一起严重的欺诈事件，很多人说这仅仅是冰山一角。

The reactionary side is that there's this insane fraud that seems to have taken place in Minnesota that a lot of people are saying is just the tip of the iceberg.

这会不会成为关键的两三年，让政治真正围绕这个问题展开，让美国决定下一轮演进的方向？

Is this gonna end up becoming the pivot year or two years where politics is really gonna end up being where this plays out and where America decides what this next evolution's gonna look like?

是的。

Yeah.

我想是的。

I I think so.

我觉得医生。

I think Doctor.

德鲁总是来找我，他会说，你知道吗，接下来要发生什么，你就是那个人，你是先知，是把耳朵贴在地上、知道马车从哪个方向来的印第安人。

Drew would always come to me and he would say, you know what's coming around the corner, you're the guy, you're the prognosticator, you're the Indian with his ear down to the ground who knows which way the wagons are coming.

他会问我，接下来会发生什么？接下来会发生什么？

And he would say to me, what's next, what's next?

所以我告诉他，那是大约八年前，也许是十年前，我说，我不知道。

And so I said to him, and this was about eight years ago, maybe ten years ago, and I said, I don't know.

他说，不，你想想看。

And he said, no, you know, think about it.

我说，好吧，接下来会出现的是安全空间和八边形。

And I said, alright, what's next is gonna be safe spaces and octagons.

他问，那是什么意思？

And he said, what does that mean?

我说，那些厌倦了生活在保姆式国家、被告诉要淘汰内燃机、换成电动车之类的人，最终都会选择自我隔离。

And I said, all the people that are tired of living in a nanny state being told we're gonna get rid of your internal combustion engine and replace it with an electric car and all that kind of stuff, they're just gonna they're gonna self segregate.

他们会搬到佛罗里达。

They're gonna move to Florida.

他们会搬到得克萨斯。

They're gonna move to Texas.

他们会搬到田纳西。

They're gonna move to Tennessee.

而所有崇尚安全空间的人则会聚集在俄勒冈州的波特兰、华盛顿州的西雅图、洛杉矶等地，最终，安全空间的地方会崩溃，而八角形的地方会繁荣起来。

And then all the safe space people are gonna end up in Portland, Oregon, and Seattle, Washington, and Los Angeles and stuff, and eventually the safe space places are gonna fall apart and the octagons are gonna thrive.

这很搞笑，因为我多年来一直跟他说这些，但几个月前，特朗普宣布要在白宫建一个八角形建筑，德鲁就开始大喊大叫。

It was funny because I'd been saying this to him for years and then several months ago, Trump announced he was putting an octagon on at the White House and Drew started yelling.

这简直就是在现实中发生了。

It's like literally happening.

八角形派和安全空间派的人。

The octagon people and the safe spaces people.

所以现在这些安全空间根本行不通。

So now the Safe Spaces don't work.

那些干净针具和无评判注射区，所有这些空中楼阁根本不起作用。

That's the clean needles and the no judgment injection zones and that that all that pie in the sky doesn't work at all.

如果它们能起作用就好了，但它们就是不行。

It'd be nice if it did work, but it doesn't work.

一旦你开始发放免费食物和免费钱，比如福利、残疾补助，马上就会被腐败掉。

The second you start handing out free food and free money for, you know, welfare, disability, it'll all get corrupted immediately.

这是人性。

It's human nature.

你知道人性是什么吗？

And you what human nature is?

机场里的狗。

Dogs at the airport.

我从来没见过机场里有狗。

I never saw a dog at the airport ever.

十五年前，我在机场看到了一只狗。

And then fifteen years ago, I saw a dog at the airport.

我当时想，这只狗在机场干什么？

And I said, what's that dog doing at the airport?

哦，这是一只服务犬。

Well, that's a service dog.

我说，这是一只系着二十英尺长绳的贵宾犬。

And I said, well, that's a poodle that's on a 20 foot leash.

不，这是只服务犬，还戴着闪亮的项圈。

No, that's a service and it's got a bedazzled collar.

这是一只服务犬。

That's a service dog.

我说，好吧。

I said, okay.

发生了什么？

What happened?

有人说：看吧，我们靠的是诚信系统。

Somebody said, look, we're on the honor system.

你只要拿一张医生的证明，说明你需要服务犬，就可以免费带狗乘机，结果十分钟过去，机场看起来就像个狗舍，因为人都是软弱的，他们会利用任何可以利用的系统。

You get a note from your doctor saying you need your service dog, you can travel with your dog for free, and then ten minutes went by and the airport looked like a kennel because people are weak and they will take advantage of whatever system they can take advantage of.

如果你开始向日托中心拨款，它们会很快反应过来，尤其是如果这些机构来自一个腐败盛行的地方——在这里，这种行为并不被视作不当，反而被视为一种生意。

And if you're gonna start handing out money to day care centers, they're gonna catch on real fast, especially if they come from a place that's corrupt, where this is not really frowned upon, it's sort of business.

那边的盗版生意相当不错，简直像是他们出口了海盗。

Piracy's pretty good business over there, it's like they exported pirates.

对，没错。

Right, right.

他们本该把那些人送到匹兹堡去，不过还是谢谢你。

They should've sent them to Pittsburgh, but thank you.

关键是，当你把这种文化带到一个地方，然后宣布那里有免费的钱可拿，却没有多少监督和制衡时，你觉得会发生什么？

The point is is what do you think is going to happen when you take this culture, you put it in a place, and then you announce there's sort of free money floating around and there's not gonna be a lot of checks and balances?

那么，这种情况就会发生。

Well then this is going to happen.

事情不可能有别的走向，这种事会在每个地方发生。

It couldn't go any other way, and it's gonna happen everywhere.

那么，以你现在的预测来看，有句老话是：艰难时期造就坚强的人，坚强的人带来安逸时代，安逸时代造就软弱的人，而软弱的人又会让时代重回艰难。

Okay, so is your prognostication at this point, you know, there's the old adage that hard times make hard people hard people make easy times, easy times make soft people, and then soft people make hard times again.

没错。

Right.

美国现在是否正处在这样一个时代：安逸的时光、经济的成功、经济的增长、这个国家财富的空前扩张，现在已经走到了崩溃的边缘？

And is The United States going through this era where the easy times, the economic success, the growth of the economy, the extraordinary expansion of wealth in this country has now gotten to the point that it's broken.

我们已经变得——姑且称之为——过于软弱，过于注重安全而非增长，倾向于保护主义而非扩张主义，这一切最终导致我们正在侵蚀曾经建立起来的伟大成就，或是许多伟大的制度，或是美国曾经存在的巨大机遇，现在正被逐渐瓦解，我们将进入艰难时期。

We've become, call it, too soft and too oriented around safety over growth, around protectionism over expansionism, where all of this has basically led to a moment where we're effectively eroding all of the greatness that we've built or many of the great systems that we've built or the great opportunity that existed in The United States is being now eroded away and we're gonna enter hard times.

这种对周期的判断是否公平？或者你认为这是地域性的差异？比如佛罗里达和德克萨斯与加利福尼亚、纽约、西雅图和俄勒冈不同？

Is that a fair kind of estimation of the cycle or do you think it's like geographic that Florida and Texas are different than California and New York and Seattle and Oregon?

我们目前处于什么阶段？

Where are we?

是的，我认为各种因素都有。

Yeah, I think it's sort of all the above.

显然我认为这是一个地区性问题，因为那些渴望自由、想开Ram皮卡的人会搬到佛罗里达。

Obviously I think it's a regional thing because the people who want freedom and wanna drive a Ram pickup truck will move to Florida.

所以你会聚集一大批志同道合的人。

And so you're gonna get a lot of like minded people.

我的意思是，过去五到十年里，我认识的那些打包离开的人，我数都数不清。

I mean I can't tell you all the people that I've known in the last five to ten years that have packed up and left.

作为一个一辈子住在加州的人，我发现这还挺有意思的。

And as somebody who's lived in California my whole life, you know, I found it, it was kinda interesting.

在加州生活，你不会接触到离开加州的人，你只会接触到从其他地方搬来的人。

One is living in California you don't experience people who leave California, you only experience people who come in from somewhere else.

所以你知道，在编剧室里，那个家伙来自匹兹堡，那个家伙来自芝加哥，到了橄榄球赛季你就特别明显了，因为他们都来了，你会说：嘿，这周日有公羊队的比赛。

So you know, it was always a novelty and also when you work in a writer's room, that guy's from Pittsburgh and that guy's from Chicago, you really know it during football season because they all come in and you go, hey, the Rams are on this Sunday.

你们想看公羊队的比赛吗？

You guys wanna watch a Rams game?

他们却说：我才不在乎公羊队呢。

And they go, don't give a shit about the Rams.

我是个钢人队的粉丝，你知道的？

I'm a Steelers guy, you know?

他们都是牛仔队的球迷。

They're all Cowboys.

在洛杉矶，房间里有十六个人。

There'd be a room of 16 guys in LA.

我是唯一一个公羊队的粉丝，因为他们都来自其他地方。

I'd be the only Rams fan because they all came from somewhere else.

我的意思是，洛杉矶真的有两三个钢人队酒吧。

I mean literally Los Angeles has two or three Steelers bars.

但没有一个公羊队的酒吧。

It doesn't have any Rams bars.

对。

Right.

所以每个人都是从别处来的，没人离开过。

So everyone was from somewhere else, nobody ever left.

过去我唯一听说有人离开加州的情况，是他们的公司搬到了丹佛，他们不得不搬走之类的。

The only time I ever heard of someone leaving California in the past is oh, their company relocated to Denver and they gotta move out, whatever.

现在我跟人聊天，他们都说：我要走了。

Now I talk to people and they're like, I'm leaving.

我就问：你公司搬走了吗？

And I go, did your company relocate?

不是，不是，我要走了。

No, no, I'm leaving.

我问：你要去哪儿？

I go, where are you going?

以前人们会说：我要退休了，去毛伊岛，或者我父母去世了，留了处房子在蒙大拿什么的。

And it used to be a thing where it's like, well, I'm gonna retire and go to Maui or my folks died and they got a place, you know, in Montana or something.

现在他们就说：哦，我不知道，佛罗里达、纳什维尔、得克萨斯、奥斯汀。

They just go, oh, I don't know, Florida, Nashville, Texas, Austin

随便哪儿

Anywhere from

这里？

here?

嗯，我的意思是，有人应该告诉加文·纽森，不仅有人在离开，而且他们离开时还说：我不在乎，我去哪儿都行。

Well that, I mean, someone should tell Gavin Newsom not only have people leaving, but they're leaving going, I don't care, I'll go anywhere.

我只是要离开。

I'm just leaving.

所以你觉得美国有一部分会继续沿着现在的方向发展，而另一部分则不同，美国会不会发现自己陷入了两个美国的境地？

So you think that there's one side of America that's gonna continue to go the way it's going and then there's the other side and is The US gonna find itself with two Americas?

那会是什么样子？

And what does that look like?

嗯，那看起来会不错。

Well, it'll look good for look.

橙县属于洛杉矶，但橙县看起来不像洛杉矶。

Orange County's in Los Angeles, but Orange County doesn't look like Los Angeles.

它干净、安全，而且很正常。

It's clean, it's safe, and it's normal.

当像新冠这样的事情发生时，他们就说：我们不会关闭海滩，祝你好运。

And when something like COVID comes around, they're like we're not shutting our beaches, good luck.

你明白我的意思吗？

You know what mean?

我的意思是，从洛杉矶到橙县途中有一块标志牌，上面大致写着：嘿，罪犯，别在这儿耍花招。

I mean there's literally a sign about halfway to Orange County from LA that basically says hey criminals, don't try that crap here.

我们会在橙县起诉你。

We will prosecute you here in Orange County.

因此，橙县井然有序、干净整洁、环境宜人。

And thus, Orange County is orderly, it's clean, and it's nice.

我说的是，那些所谓的安全空间支持者、免费针具提供者、安全注射点支持者、开放边境支持者、索马里日托支持者，他们认为我们不能评判，我们的无家可归者、流落街头的邻居等等，他们解决学校考试成绩差的办法就是取消考试，而他们的体系注定会失败，因为另一方的办法是控制饮食和锻炼。

What I'm saying is is the safe space people are the free syringe people and the safe injection site people and the sort of open border people and the Somali daycare people and they're we cannot judge and our our our homeless, you know, our unhoused neighbors and so on and so forth, and, you know, their their remedy for fixing school test scores is to get rid of test scores, they will fail because their system The cannot other side is diet and exercise.

你想减肥吗？

It's like, you wanna lose weight?

控制饮食和锻炼。

Diet and exercise.

那这种代糖巧克力呢？

What about this dietary fudge?

不会有效的。

Not gonna work.

但我孩子喜欢无糖巧克力。

But my kid likes dietetic fudge.

不会有效的。

Not gonna work.

饮食和锻炼，但我孩子不喜欢，我知道，没人喜欢，那就去行动吧。

Diet and exercise, but my kid doesn't like, I know, no one likes it, now get to work.

他们不会这么做的。

They won't do that.

他们的整个理念就是免费公交、免费针具、免费一切，还要削减警察经费，这体系最终会因自身重负而崩溃，实际上已经崩溃了，到那时他们就得看向其他州，寻求帮助。

And their their whole thing is free buses and free needles and free everything and defund the police, and it'll collapse under its own weight, it already has, and then they're gonna have to look to these other states and ask for help at a certain point.

那让我问你一个问题，来挑战‘两个美国人无法共存’这个观念。

Well, let me ask you this then, to challenge the notion that two Americans can coexist.

加州预计在2026至2027财年将出现180亿美元的预算赤字。

California is projected to have an $18,000,000,000 budget deficit in the twenty six to twenty seven cycle.

一些估计表明，加州为已退休公共雇员提供的养老金缺口高达6万亿美元，甚至可能高达1万亿美元，这是未来几年必须支付给这些退休人员的法定义务资金的 shortfall。

There are some estimates that say that the pension shortfall in California for public employees that have retired is 600,000,000,000, maybe as high as a trillion dollars short of the legal obligations of payments that need to be made to those retirees coming up in the years ahead.

这些钱必须从某个地方来。

That money has to come from somewhere.

美国的债务总额为40万亿美元。

The United States is 40,000,000,000,000 in debt.

我们每年的赤字高达1.5万亿美元，甚至可能达到2万亿美元。

We're burning 1 and a half trillion, maybe 2,000,000,000,000 a year.

债务成本正在上升。

Debt costs are climbing.

这将演变成一个恶性循环的问题。

This becomes a spiraling problem.

因为所有这些地区——尽管想法和行为各异——都共享同一张资产负债表、同一个政府，必须共同承担财政责任，这个问题该如何解决？

Because all of these regions, all of these pockets that may think and act differently share a common balance sheet, share a common government, and have to share the fiscal responsibility together, how does this resolve?

因为一方可能会说：嘿，我想在德克萨斯州平衡我的预算。

Because one side might say, hey, I wanna balance my budget here in Texas.

而加利福尼亚一方则说：嘿，我要花掉这些钱，做出我无法兑现的承诺。

The California side says, hey, I'm gonna burn all this money and make all these promises I can't keep.

但到了某个时候，他们不可能各自为政。

But at some point, they can't all go separate ways.

他们都共享同一个联邦资产负债表。

They all share the federal balance sheet.

联邦资产负债表正在被用来左支右绌地救助各州，弥补各州缺乏准备的情况，并在各州未能提供服务时提供服务，诸如此类。

The federal balance sheet's being used to bail out states left and right and bail out for states lack of preparedness and provide services when states aren't stepping in to provide services and so on and so forth.

难道这些问题不会因为我们面临的财政困境而集中爆发吗？

Doesn't this all come to a head because of the fiscal issues that we're facing?

是的。

Yeah.

而且我要说明的是，首先，我谈的是未来二十五年，而不是未来一百二十五年。

And I'm speaking, you know, less well, first off, I'm speaking about the next twenty five years versus the next hundred and twenty five years.

而且我更多是从社会角度来说，而不是说我们会拥有两支军队，佛罗里达的军队要和加州的军队打仗吗？

And I'm also sort of speaking more socially than I am in a we're gonna have two armies, is Florida's army gonna do battle with California's army?

我还没想得那么远。

Like I'm not that far into it.

基本上就是说，住在洛杉矶、想要更好生活环境的人，直接搬到橙县去。

Basically saying people in Los Angeles who want a nicer place to live just move to Orange County.

他们就说：我不想在洛杉矶养孩子，这里的学校系统太差了，我要去橙县，我知道有很多人就是这样想的：我不想离开加州，所以我去橙县，这样我的孩子能上好学校。

They just go, I don't wanna raise my kids in Los Angeles, the school system sucks, I'll go, I know plenty of people who went, I don't wanna leave California, so I'll go to Orange County so my kid's gonna have a good school system.

所以他们只是简单地重新安置。

So they're just gonna sort of relocate.

我认为那些人

I think the people who are

还有企业，亚当，也稍微多了一些。

a little Businesses more too, Adam.

企业。

Businesses.

华盛顿对收入超过12.5万美元的雇员征收了一项新的工资税。

Washington's got this new payroll tax for employees making over a 125 k.

他们打算收取15%的工资税。

They wanna charge a 15% payroll tax.

现在亚马逊、微软、好市多都表示要离开该州，但这显然会给这些州的预算造成巨大的缺口。

So now Amazon, Microsoft, Costco have all spoken about leaving the state, but that obviously creates a huge huge hole in those budgets.

是的。

Yeah.

还有特斯拉、SpaceX以及所有埃隆·马斯克相关的公司都迁往德克萨斯州，诸如此类的事情。

And Tesla and SpaceX and all things Elon Musk going to Texas and all that kind of stuff.

所以这种迁移将会发生。

So there's going to be that migration.

最终他们会谈到赤字、工会、工资和退休基金等问题，那时我们还得再谈一次。

Eventually they're gonna get to, yeah, the deficit and unions and payrolls and retirement funds and things like that, and then we're gonna have to have another conversation.

但我想说的是，这一轮的首要变化将是企业和家庭为了寻找更宜居的地方而进行的实际搬迁。我的意思是，加文·纽森想说什么都可以，但人们清楚什么是学校，什么是好学校；如果有年幼的孩子，他们就会搬到有好学校的地区，就这么简单。

But I'm saying the first part of this is gonna be the physical relocation of businesses and of families to places that are more hospitable for them, or I mean, listen, Gavin Newsom can say anything he wants, but people understand what a school is and what a good school is and they're gonna move to a place that has a good school if they have young kids and that'll be that.

我们可以谈论海岸线，谈论中午滑雪、下午四点游泳，这些都可以谈，但人们会自我隔离，他们会搬走，这正在发生。

We can talk coastline and we can talk about mountains and skiing at noon and swimming in the ocean at four in the afternoon, we can talk all about that, but people are going to self segregate and they're gonna move and it's on and that's what's happening.

所以这将是第一部分。

So that's gonna be the first part.

第二部分，当我们开始讨论奇怪的戒严、军队之类的事情时，到那时这些都已经结束了。

The second part, when we start getting into weird martial law and the military and stuff like that, that will be dead by then.

会结束？

Will be?

好吧。

Okay.

所以我们还有时间。

So we got a while.

是的。

Yeah.

这就是我的看法。

That's what I think.

是的。

Yeah.

我看到很多超高净值人士正在离开加州，考虑将公司迁走，原因就是这项新的亿万富翁税收法案。

I see a lot of people that are ultra high net worth moving out of California right now and considering moving their companies right now because of this new billionaire tax act.

我不知道你有没有关注这个，有个提案，由SEIU的负责人戴夫·雷根提出，对净资产超过10亿美元的人一次性征收5%的税。

I don't know if you followed this, but there's a proposal right, from this guy, Dave Regan, who's the head of the SEIU to do a one time 5% tax on anyone's net worth over $1,000,000,000.

他目前正在收集签名，并且是以直接公投提案的形式进行的。

He's gathering signatures right now, and he's doing it as a direct ballot measure.

在加州，你可以通过收集80万份签名，将一项宪法修正案作为公投提案提交投票。

So you in California can propose an amendment to the constitution as a ballot measure and you get 800,000 signatures and it ends up on the ballot.

这看起来会非常受欢迎。

Seems like it'll be pretty popular.

人们会投票支持它。

People will vote for it.

现在国会还有一项名为“寡头税法案”的提案，打算对净资产超过5000万美元的人征收8%的税，但似乎他们已经逐渐降低门槛，开始说：嘿。

And now there's this thing called the oligarch tax act in congress to take 8% of the net worth of people over 50,000,000, but it seems like they're already sort of coming down the ladder where they're saying, hey.

为了资助所有这些社会项目和开支，政府将开始征收私人资产。

The governments, in order to fund all of these social programs and the expenses, are gonna start to take private assets.

这如何影响这种迁移？

How does that affect this migration?

因为看起来，随着人们离开、资金外流，政府并不会削减开支，而是会寻找其他方式攫取财富。

Because it seems like as the people leave, as the money leaves, not gonna cut spending, they're gonna look for other ways to grab money.

这是否会进一步推动迁移潮？

Does that just drive the migration up?

是的。

Yes.

这肯定会加剧迁移，而他们却始终没有真正理解这一点，这一直让我很感兴趣。

It it's definitely gonna drive migration up and they never really kind of understand that, which I'm always interested in.

此外，随着明尼苏达州索马里裔事件以及加州即将暴露的腐败问题（他们已经发现了一些问题，天知道当真相大白时，这将远远超过明尼苏达事件的规模）。

And then also, you know, in the wake of the Somali Minnesota thing and whatever the corruption they're gonna find in California, which they've already found and God knows how it's gonna dwarf the Minnesota situation when they do get to the bottom of that.

在你面对如此多的欺诈和浪费时，要向工人——也就是那些建设者、创造者和劳动者——解释我们需要更多资金，这实在很难说服人。

It's a tough sell to in the middle of all your fraudulent waste explaining we need more money from the workers, Basically the people that are the builders and the creators and the workers.

所以很明显，你看，处理这个问题有两种方式：比如你家的水电费太高了，你可以对妻子说，你晚上应该关窗，别光着身子到处走，别整天把暖气开到90度。

So obviously, look, there's two ways you can go about, you know, you can go The utility bill is too high in our house and you could say to your wife, well you should close the windows at night and not walk around in your underpants and not run the furnace at 90 degrees all day.

然后她可能会看着你说，或者你可以找第二份工作，我们直接把账单付了。

And then she could look at you and go, or you could take a second job and we could just pay the bills.

你就会说，好吧，这两种说法其实都对。

And you go, alright, well, and they're both true.

我的意思是，加州要么可以控制一些疯狂的开支，要么就多搞点钱来履行这些义务。

I mean, either California could rein in some of its insane spending or they could just get more money to take care of of those obligations.

这两种说法都对，而且如果两者各做一部分，其实也能奏效，你知道吧？

And they're both true and they would actually percentages of both would work, you know?

你可以削减10%的开支，再增加10%的税收，这样就能解决问题。

You could cut spending 10% and you could get 10% more tax revenue and and and that would work.

所以罗卡纳的数学并没有错，他只是在指出一个问题：你们不能总把人当成存钱罐，尤其是那些创造就业和产业的人。

So it's not like Rokana's mathematically wrong, he is creating a problem which is you guys can't just keep looking at people as piggy banks, especially the ones that are creating the jobs and creating the industry.

你们得开始想办法控制开支了。

You need to start looking at ways to rein in your spending.

我认为这普遍反映了民主党一个根本性缺陷：那就是到处找最有钱的人，看看能从他们身上榨取多少。

And I think it's a fundamental flaw in general with Democrats which is let's just look around for whoever has the most money and see how much we can get.

加州人民，那些最高税率阶层的人，已经缴纳了大约50%的州税。

People of California, the people in the highest tax brackets are, you know, they're already at about 50% with state

53%。

53.

加上联邦税，总共是53%。

53 with state and federal.

所以你可以再从他们身上多拿一点，但我觉得，当他们说‘特朗普是独裁者’、‘这是暴政’、‘这些都是寡头’之类的话时，

So you can look at them for more, but a, I think it's, in terms of, you know, when they go, oh, you know, Trump's a dictator and this is tyrannical, these are oligarchs and whatever.

他们可以随便怎么说，但在我看来，拿走你超过50%的收入，才是政府最过度的干预。

They can say whatever they want, but taking more than 50% of your money, I would argue is the ultimate government overreach.

从来没有人这样想过。

No one ever thinks of it that way.

他们只想着戴口罩、关闭学校、让吉米·金梅尔丢工作之类的事，但政府整天伸手进你的口袋，想要财富税、遗产税、死亡税，还有各种类似的税项——这才是疯狂的，而且确实会把人们逼走，离开实施这些政策的实体。

They think in terms of like wearing masks or shutting schools or getting Jimmy Kimmel fired from his job or something, but the government putting their hand in your pocket all day every day and you know, wanting all the wealth tax and the estate tax and the expiration tax and all that kind of stuff, that is an, it's insane and yes, it will drive people away from whatever entity's doing that.

我担心的是，削减支出真的很难，亚当。

The thing I worry about is that it's very hard to cut spending on the flip side, Adam.

据我估计，超过一半的美国人直接或间接依赖政府的拨款。

By my estimate, more than half of Americans rely on a government check either directly or indirectly.

所以你要么受雇于联邦、州或地方政府及其机构，要么是这些机构的承包商，或者正在领取政府机构发放的退休金。

So you're either employed by the federal, state, or local government or its agencies or one of its contractors or you're receiving one of the retirement checks from a government agency.

因此，由于大多数人口都在接受福利或依靠某种政府资金流动生活，情况变得非常困难。

And so it's become very difficult because a majority of the population is receiving benefit or living from some sort of government flow of capital

是的。

Yeah.

从民主的角度来看，这使得很难说：‘我要投票改变这种状况。’

Which makes it very hard from a democracy perspective to say, hey, I'm gonna vote to change that.

谁会投票削减自己的收入呢？

Who would vote to cut their own income?

没错。

Right.

你就拿退休年龄来说吧，你知道吗？

You take like the retirement age, you know?

你去看看，社会保障体系根本撑不住了。

You go look, Social Security's not gonna be able to keep up with this.

那我们为什么不把退休年龄提高到70岁呢？

So why don't we make their retirement age 70?

结果所有人都炸毛了。

And then everyone goes out of their minds.

我说，现在人的寿命比以前长了二十年啊。

I'm like, look, people live twenty years longer than they used to.

你看看RFK Jr.，

You you at RFK Jr.

他在那儿做引体向上呢，这人都71岁了。

Over there, he's doing chin ups, the guy's 71 years old.

我的意思是，70岁已经不是以前的那个70岁了。

I mean, 70 ain't what it used to be.

顺便说一下，我61岁了，根本没打算65岁退休，我认识很多六十多岁的人，他们根本不是，嗯，我和医生聊过。

And by the way, I'm 61, I have no intention of retiring at 65, I know plenty of guys that are in their sixties, they're not even, you know, I talk to Doctor.

德鲁和律师马克·加里戈斯，我隔天就见他们一次。

Drew and attorney Mark Garrigos every other day.

这些人离退休还远着呢，他们不该退休，我们也不该希望他们退休。

Those guys are not nowhere near retiring and they should retire and we shouldn't want them to retire.

所以得有人站出来说：我们要把退休年龄提高到70岁。

So someone's gotta go, look, we're gonna raise that age to 70.

顺便说一下，我不知道，简·方达都90岁了。

By the way, I don't know, Jane Fonda's 90.

她现在还在工作，尽管我讨厌她的作品和她这个人。

She's at work right now as much as I hate her work and her.

但关键是，得有人有胆量，我知道这不会讨好那些习惯从政府拿钱的人，但总得有人在房间里当个成年人，别总想着下一次选举，该谈谈财政理智了。

But the point is is somebody's gonna have to have some balls, and I know it's not popular with all the people who are used to getting money from the government, but someone's gonna have to be the adult in the room at some point and stop worrying about their next election and start talking fiscal sanity.

那你觉得谁是加利福尼亚州的合适人选？

So who do you think is the right candidate for California?

你有没有看过那个雪橇，两个D之类的？我想谁比较有可能？

Have you looked at the the sleigh, two d like, and I guess who do you think is probable?

我们不能继续照常行事。

We cannot have business as usual.

照常行事就是我们正在经历一场缓慢的列车脱轨事故，而且已经触底了。

Business as usual is we are just bottoming out in some sort of slow motion train wreck here.

所以你知道，斯瓦尔是个蠢货，你知道，很多这些人都是蠢货。

So you know, the Swalwells, by the way is a dope, you know, a lot of these people are dopes.

我不认为人们真的明白这一点，你知道吗？

And I don't I don't think people really understand that, you know?

你可以强烈反对党派另一端的许多人，比如你可能不同意吉姆·乔丹或汤姆·科顿之类的人，但他们并不是蠢货。

Like you could, you can vehemently disagree with many folks on the other side of the aisle and you know, you could disagree with Jim Jordan or Tom Cotton or someone like that, but they're not dopes.

埃里克·斯瓦尔是个蠢货。

Eric Swallow's a dope.

卡玛拉·哈里斯是个蠢货。

Kamala Harris is a dope.

凯伦·巴斯是个傻瓜。

Karen Bass is a dope.

这些人都很蠢，不配掌权，因为他们没有这个智力水平。

These are dumb people who shouldn't be in charge of things because they don't have the intellectual capacity for it.

我不同意巴拉克·奥巴马的观点，我认为他是个骗子和种族煽动者，但他不是傻瓜。

Now I disagree with Barack Obama, I think he's a liar and a race hustler, but he's not a dope.

埃里克·斯瓦洛是个傻瓜。

Eric Swallow's a dope.

所以，首先，我真不想要一个傻瓜来执政，你知道，我不想让傻瓜来管事。

And so first things first, I don't really want a dope, you know, we, I don't want a dope governing.

加文·纽森是个反社会者，但他不是傻瓜，但他显然有问题，他思考不清，完全不讲逻辑，我曾采访他一小时，他确实有毛病，但我不会把他归为傻瓜一类。

And now Gavin Newsom's a sociopath, but he's not a dope, but there's something wrong with him, clearly wrong, and he doesn't think clearly and he's not linear at all and I've interviewed him for an hour and he's, there's something wrong with him, but I don't lump him in the dope department.

我会说，凯蒂·波特是个白痴，她也是个傻瓜。

I will take, and Katie Porter's an idiot and she's a dope.

顺便说一句，她对员工刻薄，这还只是我最不担心的事。

And by the way, her being mean to her employees is the least of my worries.

我对那件事没什么想法。

I have no thoughts about that.

她是个蠢货。

She's a dumb cow.

我听过她关于五年前富国银行推出的一项广告活动的言论，她明显是个傻瓜。

I heard her statements about some advertising campaign that Chase Bank came out like five years ago and she's clearly an idiot.

所以我们不想要她，我们不想要任何照常办事。

So we don't want her, we don't want any business as usual.

你知道的，史蒂夫·希顿、拉里·埃尔德、里克·卡鲁索，都无所谓。

You know, Steve Hilton, Larry Elder, Rick Caruso, it doesn't matter.

任何不是傻瓜、能像商人一样思考、以这种方式对待加利福尼亚的人，我都支持。

Anybody who sort of is not a dope and can think like a business person and approach California that way, I'm in on.

我的意思是，我不清楚里克·卡鲁索的未来会怎样，我和他关系不错，我猜他会参选，他很棒。

I mean I don't know where Rick Caruso's, you know, what his future is, I'm pretty friendly with him, I assume he's gonna run, and he's great.

史蒂夫·希顿很棒。

Steve Hilton's great.

拉里·埃尔德很棒。

Larry Elder's great.

任何来自右翼的人都能解决这个问题。

It's anybody from the right side will will fix this.

不能继续让一连串的蠢货、懦夫和那种人掌权。

It cannot have a succession of more dopes and swall wells and guys like that.

你觉得加州能作为一个单一政党州生存下去吗？

Do you think the state can survive as a single party state?

你知道吗，我昨天看到一个统计数据，我觉得州议会每年会通过1100项法案，因为这是一个单一政党统治的州。

You know, I saw this statistic yesterday that I think 1,100 bills get signed into law a year out of the state assembly because it's a uniparty state.

所以，你知道，有些人称之为对加州预算和资源的掠夺，这些都通过州参议院和州众议院的程序，以法案的形式源源不断地被通过和签署，而不是在一个更中间偏紫的州，那里可以有真正的辩论过程。

So, you know, there's this extraordinary some people would call it pillaging of the budget and pillaging of resources in California for personal interests that all get kind of funneled through the state senate, state assembly process and bill after bill after bill after bill just gets pumped and signed versus having a a more kind of purple state where there could be a process where there's debate.

加州还有没有可能走向中间偏紫？还是说，所有能让加州变成中间偏紫的人已经离开或正在离开，这条路已经太遥远了？

Is there a path to that in California, or is it too too long lost where all the people that could make it a purple state are leaving or have left?

我们能实现吗？

And can we get there?

是的，你知道，我觉得这场大火唤醒了一些人。

Yeah, you know, I think the fire woke some people up.

我突然觉得人们的论调有点不一样了，你知道吗，奇怪的是好莱坞就像个风向标，他们能通过好莱坞的动向感知整个州的氛围。他们以前都非常左倾、非常自由派、非常'觉醒'，但这是有史以来第一次听到人们谈论不想对孩子进行变性手术，在商业领域，你懂我的意思吗？

I think all of a sudden people are sounding a little bit different, you know, in a weird way, Hollywood is sort of a bellwether, like they're, they can kind of take the temperature of the state by sort of where Hollywood is, you know, And they were all very far to the left and very liberal and very woke and for the first time ever, you do hear people talking about not wanting to trans the kids, you know, in business, you know what I mean?

而且你看，喜剧演员和演员们都在讨论，为什么那些水库没有蓄满水？我不会投票给凯伦·巴斯，她本应该...我们怎么能让这个地方烧成灰烬？还有为什么所有制作都搬到亚特兰大和新墨西哥去了？突然间这些问题都摆在了他们面前，就像他们的房子被烧毁了，不得不去国外拍摄下一部情景喜剧，出门还有个无家可归者在他们前门廊撒尿，他们的侄女在上学路上被无家可归者刺伤，到处都是这些开着温尼贝戈房车的人在他们家门前贩卖芬太尼——这是有史以来第一次，他们开始质疑：或许这个方向不对。

Piping And up, you you have comedians and you have actors and they're talking about like, you know, why weren't those reservoirs filled and no I'm not voting for Karen Bass and she should've, and how do we let this place burn down and by the way what's up with all this production leaving to Atlanta and leaving to New Mexico, all of a sudden the stuff has sort of landed on their plate a little bit, like their house burned down and they have to go out of the country to film their next sitcom, and they're sort of like going and there's a homeless guy pissing on their front porch and their niece got stabbed by a homeless guy just walking to school, and there's these campers, these Winnebago's everywhere dealing fentanyl in front of their house, you know, and they're, for the first time ever, they're kinda going, I don't know, maybe this isn't the direction.

完全正确。

Totally.

确实如此，很多人已经离开了，但好莱坞有点像衡量这个城市温度的标尺。有史以来第一次，我听到那些类型的人——喜剧演员们公开说出来，不再窃窃私语了。你只需要躲起来，你知道，如果你要说凯伦·巴斯（Karen Bass）的坏话，必须小声说，你不能发推特之类的。

And it's true, a lot of them have left, but Hollywood is a little bit of a yardstick to kinda measure the temperature of the town, and for the first time ever I am hearing those types, comedians and speaking out loud, not not whispering anymore, you just have to hide, know, if you had something bad to say about Karen Bass, had to say it quietly, you couldn't send a tweet out and that kind of stuff.

所以确实有一种觉醒，这就像你的房子烧毁后逻辑上会发生的事情一样。

And so there is an awakening and it's what would logically happen if your house burned down.

对。

Right.

有个叫罗伯·亨德森（Rob Henderson）的人，他写关于这些事情的文章，叫《右派》。

This guy named Rob Henderson who writes about these things called Right.

奢侈信念，没错。

Luxury beliefs, Sure.

拥有某种信念去做某事，直到它出现在你家门口之前，都是一种奢侈。

It's all it's a it's a luxury to have a belief in doing x y or z until it shows up at your doorstep.

因为你不必面对它，不必与之共存，但一旦它真正影响到你，你就会意识到：等等，也许这并不是正确的决定。

It's the fact that you don't have to deal with it, you don't have to live with it, but eventually if it does affect you personally, then you realize, wait a second, maybe this is not the right decision.

这就像是关闭天然气，让人们不能使用炉灶。

It's it's like turning off the natural gas so that people can't have stoves.

最贫穷的人因为用电做饭太贵而无法烹饪食物，而这种奢侈信念却是：哦，这对地球更好，但实际上对大多数人却造成了伤害。

Now the the poorest of people can't afford to cook their food because it's so expensive to use electricity to to to heat your food, and, you know, the the luxury belief is, oh, it's better for the planet, but for the majority of people it hurts them.

同样，当露营车出现、你侄女被刺伤后，你就会意识到，也许关于无家可归者的政策并不是最好的。

Similarly, once the Winnebago show up and your niece gets stabbed, you realize maybe that wasn't the best policy or set of policies about disappointing produce.

汽油每加仑六美元，你开的是园艺卡车，一辆福特F-250加长版，载着两千磅的设备，每加仑只跑七英里，而你又是园丁的薪水，你当然会考虑 cheaper gas。

And gas is $6 a gallon and you drive a gardening truck and it's a Ford F two fifty extended cab and it's filled with 2,000 pounds worth of you know, equipment and you're getting seven miles to the gallon and you're on a gardener salary, yeah, you're gonna think about cheaper gas.

那时你根本不会想海岸委员会的事，你只希望汽油价格能降下来，因为你开的是一辆装满园艺设备的皮卡。

You're not thinking about the coastal commission at that point, you just want the price of gas to go down because you're driving a pickup truck filled with gardening material.

所以我身处硅谷，而硅谷目前正承受着一种强烈的反科技、反人工智能情绪，这种情绪在两党之间都在酝酿和升温。

So I work in Silicon Valley and a lot of what Silicon Valley is on the receiving end of at this moment is this extraordinary anti tech, anti AI sentiment that seems to be brewing and bubbling on both sides of the aisle.

无论是民主党还是共和党，出于不同的原因，都将科技行业视为某种邪恶势力、新的寡头、新的掠夺者等等。

Democrats, Republicans, for different reasons, are viewing the tech industry as kind of this evil, the oligarchs, the new kleptocrats, and so on.

从你的角度来看，这种趋势将走向何方？

From where you sit, where is this headed?

在你看来，这是一个显著的问题吗？

Is this a pronounced issue from from your view?

我的意思是，也许我们在这里硅谷对这种情绪特别敏感，但整体的反科技情绪是否正变得越来越响亮、越来越重要？

I mean, maybe we're all very sensitive to it here in Silicon Valley, but is the generally anti tech sentiment becoming louder, becoming more significant?

你认为这将如何影响下一阶段的政治周期？

How does this affect, you know, the next kind of cycle in politics, do you think?

我的意思是，我们总是需要一个反派，所以当是二战时，我们只需憎恨纳粹，这很简单明了；但到了某个阶段，情况就变得复杂了，比如越战之类的时候，然后又到了某个时候，变成了孟山都和这些大型化工公司，我们总是需要一个对象来保护我的选民免受其害。

Well, I mean, we always need a villain and so it's easy when it's World War Two, we can just hate Nazis, you know, and it's pretty straightforward and then at a certain point, it gets a little more complex, you know, when it's Vietnam or something like that and then, you know, then at some point it's, you know, Monsanto and these big chemical companies, know, we always sort of need somebody to protect my constituency from.

所以你选我，我会保护你和你的孩子，让他们免受那些往河里倾倒未经处理污水的公司的伤害，诸如此类。

So you know, elect me and I'll protect you and your kids from this company that's dumping raw sewage into the river and so on and so forth.

现在我们已经经历了这一切，我认为大型科技公司是当前的替罪羊——虽然不是最后一个，但确实是现在的目标，因为我们不再主要面对大公司污染的问题，也不再与某个国家处于战争状态，所以它成了一个容易攻击的目标。而且，关于孩子和屏幕时间、诱导孩子长时间上网、对成长中长期盯着屏幕的孩子可能造成的伤害、以及色情内容的接触等问题，大型科技公司确实有些见不得人的黑历史。再加上人工智能，这简直是‘别看幕后的那个人’的终极版本，就像那个邪恶的巫师，你选我，我就来约束这些人，保护你免受这些潜在危害——别管你自己，想想你的孩子吧？

And now that we've sort of cycled through all that, I do think big tech is the last, not the last, but I mean the current boogeyman because we're not really dealing with big companies polluting anymore and we're not at war, you know, with this nation or that nation, so it's an easy target and you know, there's some skeletons in the closet about kids and screen time and incentives to keep the kids on the screen and the damage that it may be causing the young kids who grew up staring at the screen and access to pornography and everything else and then AI, you know, AI, that is the ultimate sort of pay no attention to the man behind the curtain, that's the evil wizard and you elect me and I'm gonna rein these people in and I'm gonna protect you from this potential harm that, you know, forget about you, what about your kids?

你希望他们长大后生活在一个AI的地狱里，被埃隆·马斯克的机器人追着满街跑，对吧？

You want them growing up, you know, in this hellscape of AI, you know, being chased down the street by by Elon Musk's robots, know.

而且，任何美国公众真正不理解的东西，都更容易被拿来兜售和恐吓他们，你知道吧？

So and also anything America doesn't really fully understand makes it that much easier to pitch them and scare them, you know?

没错。

Right.

所以，是的，这种现象肯定会存在。

So, yeah, there's gonna be that.

另外，还有那些亿万富翁、伯尼·桑德斯和对财富的围剿，这些家伙和他们的亲信们赚了这么多钱，这将成为他们极容易攻击的目标。

Also, with the sort of, you know, billionaires and Bernie Sanders and the war on wealth and that kind of stuff that these guys making all this money with all their, you know, cronies and all that, so it's gonna be a real easy target for them.

没错。

Yeah.

他们会去攻击任何容易下手的目标。

And and they'll go after whatever's an easy target.

你知道，八十年代的时候，毒品贩子是目标，非常直接明了。

And you know, in the eighties it was drug dealers, know, pretty pretty straightforward.

目标在变化，先是德国人，然后是越南人，接着又变成毒品贩子。

And it shifts, it goes, you know, Germans and then it goes Vietnamese and then it goes drug dealers.

它会不断转移，转向卡特尔，或者任何对他们有利的目标，但我会说，硅谷、人工智能和大科技公司将成为未来的替罪羊。

And it'll just, cartels, you know, it'll just move around and switch to whatever's expedient for them, but I would say Silicon Valley AI and big tech is going to be the boogeyman of the future.

你认为人们对失业真的感到恐惧吗？到目前为止，人们有没有真实的理解和体验？

Do you think that there's a real fear of job loss and a real understanding or experience to date?

我知道很多好莱坞的人在谈论创意过程被取代，他们正被AI排除在体系之外。

I know a lot of people in Hollywood talk about the creative process getting replaced and they're getting written out of the system with AI.

好莱坞的人们真的有这种感受吗？

Does that feel real to people in Hollywood?

你有没有广泛地关注过其他行业的情况？

How much have you kind of looked at this broadly across other industries?

我一直都是技术工种的坚定支持者，基于我的背景，我一直希望孩子们能参与技术工作，这一直让我很困扰。

Well, I've always been a big advocate of the trades with my background and I've always wanted kids and felt like we needed to have them get involved with the trades and it always drove me nuts.

就像九十年代末，他们搞了那么多关于拯救音乐和学校音乐项目的宣传活动，我当时就想，那木工课呢？有人能拯救木工课吗？

Like in the late ninety's when they do all those campaigns about saving the music and save the music programs at school and I'd be like, what about shop glass, could someone save shop glass?

我的天啊，马里布被烧成了废墟，帕利塞兹被烧成了废墟，阿尔塔代纳也被烧成了废墟。

I mean for Christ's sake, Malibu's burnt to the ground, Palisades are burnt to the ground, Altadena's burnt to the ground.

你知道现在这里需要多少电工、水管工、木骨架工、屋顶工、石膏板工、石膏板安装工和金属工吗？你明白我的意思吗？

Do you know how many electricians and plumbers and framers and roofers and drywallers and you know, Sheetrockers and Tin Knockers we're gonna need just here, right now, you know what I mean?

顺便说一句，这些家伙的时薪可不是14美元。

And and and by the way, these guys ain't making $14 an hour.

他们每天最低也能赚300美元。

They're they're making $300 a day on the low end.

这行当钱途很好，而且在可预见的未来，AI不会取代你。

There's good money and AI's not gonna replace you in the in the near future.

所以我一直大力倡导，让我们重新把木工课带回来。

So I've I've been a huge, you know, kinda micro let's let's bring shop back.

我们早就需要它了。

We need it Fan for a long time.

你知道，说到人工智能，所有技术都是在取代某些东西，比如卡车取代了马车，这种趋势一直在持续，就像有人会问：那我们还该保留邮政服务吗？

You know, as far as AI goes, you know, everything, technology just replaces things, you know, trucks replace wagons and and it just keeps going and going and going and and and you know, and it's like, well, should we keep the postal service?

我们有电子邮件。

We have email.

不，不应该。

Like, no.

当你的论点是，如果我们关闭没人需要的工厂，就会让很多人失业时，我会说：那就让他们失业吧，我们确实不需要它了。

And then when your argument is is we're gonna put a bunch of people out of work if we close the mill down that no one needs, I'd go, put them out of work, we don't need it.

这就是生活，事情本来就会这样发展。

That's life, that's the way it's gonna go.

人为地扶持某个行业并不是正确的做法。

You're artificially propping some industry up is not the way to go.

所以，是的，人们在选择职业时，必须开始考虑这个问题。

So yeah, and people are gonna have to start considering this when they're looking at a profession.

是的。

Yeah.

这也是一项重要原则：当技术为人带来杠杆效应，提升他们在一小时内能创造或完成的工作量时，并不是为了取代他们。

This this is also like an important principle that when technology creates leverage for a person in terms of how much they can create or do in an hour, it's not about replacing them.

突然间，每小时完成的工作量可能增加十倍甚至百倍，但这并不意味着今天行驶的里程比过去马车时代更少，因为我们有了汽车取代了马和马车。

Then suddenly more will be done per hour by 10x or 100x, You know, it's not like fewer miles are being driven today because we got cars and replaced all the horses and wagons.

我们现在行驶的里程实际上是以前的上千倍、上万倍，围绕这一变化还催生了无数新的工作和产业，我认为这是看待取代旧事物时的一种误解。

We're driving far more miles by a thousand x, 10,000 x, and there are all these new jobs and new industries that emerged around it, which I think is one of the fallacies on thinking about replacing old stuff.

所以总结一下，我的意思是，也许我们可以展望一下2028年，我们之前已经讨论了很多长期趋势。

So just to wrap up, I mean, maybe looking ahead to '28, we talked a lot about kind of things that are headed longer term.

你觉得2028年的总统大选会如何发展？

Maybe how do you think the presidential election's gonna play out in '28?

你觉得中期选举会怎样发展？

How do you think things are gonna go for the midterms?

我的意思是，是的，我属于‘经济才是关键’这一派，虽然我不喜欢卡维尔，但我觉得特朗普有很多问题，人们刚上任两天就问他：‘为什么鸡蛋不便宜了？'

I mean, yeah, I'm I'm in the it's the economy stupid camp, although I'm not a Carville fan, I think Trump's a lot of things, I think people, you know, asked him two days in, how come eggs weren't cheaper?

你知道的，有些事情需要时间，让油价降下来需要时间，关税收入之类的事情也需要时间。

You know, stuff takes a minute, you know, takes a minute to get the fuel prices down, takes a minute for tariff revenues and things like that.

我认为特朗普的财政政策将在新年生效，人们将开始享受到这些政策带来的好处。如果真的如此，汽油价格低廉、利率下降、住房拥有率上升、就业率提高，那么我们将再有四年时间由某些J执政。

I think Trump's fiscal stuff is going to kick in in the new year and I think people are gonna start reaping the benefits of that, and I think if that happens and gas is cheap and interest rates are down and home ownership is up and employment is up, then we're gonna have four more years of some J.

D。

D.

万斯，或者某种意义上的特朗普2.0在任。

Vance or some sort of you know, Trump two point o in office.

嗯。

Mhmm.

至于中期选举，它们可能在我们充分感受到特朗普所实施的积极经济成果之前就已发生，因此结果可能走向任何一方。

In terms of the midterms, they may kick in before we feel the full effects of the positive economic products that Trump is implementing, so that could go, you know, that could sort of go either way.

但我觉得，就总统选举而言，如果特朗普的政策奏效——边境关闭、利率下降、燃油便宜、海外冲突要么消除要么大幅减少——那么人们很可能会说：‘让我们看看再继续四年这样的政策会怎样，而不是去面对卡玛拉·哈里斯那堆语无伦次的东西，或者那些疯狂的非法囚犯政策，不管是什么。'

But I think for the you know, in terms of the presidential election, I I feel like if Trump's stuff works, like border closed, interest rates down, fuel cheap, foreign skirmishes either eliminated or you know, drastically reduced, then yeah, someone will go let's see what four more years of this is like versus whatever Kamala Harris word salad, you know, or or you know, insane kind of, you know, trans, the illegal prisoners policy or whatever whatever.

我的意思是，不管加文·纽森想推行什么疯狂政策，他都得全部撤回，这总是很有趣的部分。

I mean, whatever insanity Gavin Newsom wants to implement, although he'll have to walk all of it back so that's always the fun part.

但我喜欢当人们假装他们五十岁时的想法现在依然适用，好像‘我54岁时有过这个想法，但现在我57岁了，我已经抛弃了幼稚的想法，成了一个全新的人。’

But I like when people pretend like their ideas that they had in their fifties were now that, you know, that's an idea I had when I was 54, but now that I'm 57, I've put my childish ways behind me and I'm a new person.

就是这样，不行。

It's like, no.

如果你在五十多岁的时候做这些决定，那就说明那是你当时的想法。

If you're making those decisions in your fifties, it means that's what you thought.

但，没错，这会很有趣。

But, yeah, it'll be interesting.

如果经济开始起作用，关税有效，油价下跌，利率下降，那么是的，我认为会再连任四年。

I I if the economics kick in and the tariffs work and the gas comes down and the interest rates come down, then, yeah, I think it'll be four more years.

太疯狂了。

It's crazy.

我从来对政治不感兴趣。

I never was interested in politics.

我讨厌谈论这个。

I hate talking about it.

我讨厌参与其中，因为对我来说，我一直只是个想被放过的普通人。

I hate getting involved in it or because for me, I've always just been a guy like, leave me alone.

让我做我的工作。

Let me do my work.

让我过我的生活。

Let me live my life.

我不想思考政府和政治，但它已经渗透到我们生活的方方面面。

I don't wanna think about government and politics, but it's become so prevalent in our lives.

它已经变成了一件我们几乎都被迫讨论、被迫参与、被迫表达观点、被迫更好地理解的事情，因为它无处不在。

It's become something that all of us almost are forced to discuss and forced to get involved in and forced to have an opinion on and a voice on and understand better because it's so prevalent.

我的意思是，我一直都在听

I mean, you've been I've been listening to

你从那时起

you since that

三十多年了。

for thirty plus years.

这曾经是你花时间关注的事情吗？

This was this ever a thing that you spent time on?

因为我们刚刚花了整整一个小时在谈该死的政治，而且

Because we just spent the last hour talking about friggin' politics and

不。

No.

我很高兴我们最后谈到这一点：我认识的所有被归为右翼的人，他们都说的只有一句：我只是想被独自留下。

I I'm glad we're ending on this point, which is everybody I know who, you know, gets lumped into being a right winger, all they say is I just want to be left alone.

只是想被独自留下。

Just want to be left alone.

我想拥有我的财产，这是我的财产，我拥有它，我为它缴税，我想重建我的财产。

I want to, I have a property, it's my property, I own it, I pay taxes on it, I would like to rebuild my property.

但政府却说不行，你不可以。

And the government says no you cannot.

现在我遇到了问题。

And now I have a problem.

这变得政治化了，但我并不希望它政治化，我只想被独自留下。

And it's getting political, but I don't want it to get political, I just want to be left alone.

我有个五岁的侄女，我不想让一个九英尺高的变性人在图书馆给她读《戴帽子的猫》，但这是可以避免的。

I got, you know, a niece and she's five years old and I don't want a nine foot tall tranny reading her cat in the hat at the library, but this is avoidable.

你可以不管她，也可以不管我，我会交税，做个好邻居，捡起我狗的粪便，我们可以继续我们的生活，但你们却不答应。

You can just leave her alone and you can leave me alone and I'll pay my taxes and I'll be a good neighbor and I'll pick up my dog's poop and we could get on with our lives, but you won't have it.

你们非要插手不可。

You have to get involved.

我认识的大多数在政治和情感上与我立场相同的人都在说，我就是没法被放过。

And most of the people I know who are on my side of the aisle in terms of politically and just sort of emotionally are going, I just won't be left alone.

我不在乎，如果我想要燃气灶，我就想要燃气灶。

I don't, if I want a gas stove, I want a gas stove.

如果我想要燃油卡车，我就想要燃油卡车，而且我希望能够用我的钱重建我的房产，然后为此纳税，而不需要你们如此干涉。

If I want a gas powered truck, I want a gas powered truck and I would like to be able to rebuild my property using my money to rebuild my property and then pay taxes on that without you getting so involved.

所以我只希望被放任自流。

So I'd just like to be left alone.

我认为你几乎就像一个风向标，表明国家、城市、州和其他治理体系已经达到了一个临界点，因为我们这么多对政治毫无兴趣、从未关注过、从未花时间研究过的人，几乎被卷入了其中，因为这些体系已经变成了现在这样，它们触及我们生活的方方面面，干扰我们生活、做生意、做事情的能力，我们不断地被以一种感觉非常错误的方式刺激和打扰。

And I think you're you're almost like a bellwether for the fact that the country and the city and the state and other systems of governing have reached a breaking point because so many of us who have no interest in politics, never had any interest in it, never focused on it, never spent time on it, almost got wrangled into it because of all of the artifacts of what these systems have turned into, that they now touch every part of our life, disrupt our ability to live our life, to do our business, to do our things, and we're constantly being prodded and poked in a way that feels really wrong.

所以，亚当，感谢你今天抽出时间。

And so, look, Adam, I appreciate you spending the time today.

这真是太棒了。

This has been awesome.

很高兴见到你。

Great to meet.

确实如此。

Very

糟糕。

bad.

是啊。

Yeah.

谢谢你和我们在一起。

Thanks for thanks for being with us.

我的荣幸。

My pleasure.

我们很快再做一次。

We'll do it again soon.

我正在照顾你们所有人。

I'm doing all of you.

好了，亲爱的们。

Alright, besties.

我觉得这又是一场精彩的讨论。

I think that was another epic discussion.

人们很喜欢这些访谈。

People love the interviews.

我可以听他讲几个小时。

I could hear him talk for hours.

当然。

Absolutely.

我们一分钟内就解答了你们的所有问题。

We crushed your questions in a minute.

我们正在为人们提供真实数据，以便他们形成自己的观点。

We are giving people ground truth data to underwrite your own opinion.

你们刚才说什么？

What'd you guys say?

那真有趣。

That was fun.

那太棒了。

That was great.

我全部投入了。

I'm doing all in.