All-In 2026年预测

沙玛，你觉得2026年最大的政治赢家会是谁？

Shama, who do you got for biggest political winner 2026?

whoever will fight waste, fraud, and abuse at the federal, state, and local level.

Whoever is going to fight waste, fraud, and abuse at the federal, state, and local level.

明白了。

Got it.

所以这是对任何人开放的机会。

So it's an open lane to anybody.

这是个开放的机会。

It's an open lane.

这是一种政治策略，我认为在2026年会非常有效。

It's a political gambit that I think will work really well in '26.

非常精彩。

Very nicely done.

大卫·萨克斯。

David Sacks.

天啊。

Gosh.

我真想不到你会选谁。

I can't imagine who you would pick

作为2026年最大的政治赢家。

as a political winner in 2026.

好吧，我先说。

Well, I'm gonna Go ahead.

我认为特朗普热潮将是2026年最大的政治赢家。

I'm gonna say that the Trump boom is gonna be the biggest political winner of 2026.

好的经济消息在2025年结束前就已经开始显现。

The good economic news has started breaking out before 2025 was even over.

我们有2.7%的通胀率，核心CPI为2.6%，两者都比预期低40个基点，第三季度GDP增长4.3%，贸易赤字降至2009年以来最低。

We have 2.7% inflation, core CPI at 2.6, both those are 40 basis points below expectations, 4.3% GDP growth in q three, lowest trade deficit since 2009.

今天发布的挑战者职位报告表明，裁员人数较11月下降了50%，而11月本身较10月也下降了约50%。

The Challenger Grade report out today showed that job cuts dropped 50% from November, which was itself down about 50% from October.

给个数字，这个繁荣有多大规模？

Give us a number for the boom.

会是多少呢？

What is it gonna be?

等一下。

Hold on.

标普500指数持续创出新高。

The S and P 500 keeps making record highs.

人们加油的钱变少了。

People are paying less for gas.

房贷成本下降了3000美元。

Mortgage costs have fallen by $3,000.

实际工资上涨了1000多美元，到六月，我预测还会进一步降息，可能达到75到100个基点，而且由于标准扣除额提高、小费收入免税以及社会保障政策调整，四月份将会有大额退税到账。

Real wages are up over $1,000, and by June, I predict we will see more rate cuts, possibly 75 to a 100 basis points, and big tax refunds are coming in April thanks to a bigger standard deduction and no tax on tips over time and Social Security.

所以我认为，大量利好经济消息正在涌现，而且已经开始了，

So I think there is so much good economic news coming and it's already started,

好的。

Okay.

我先选SACS。

I'm gonna go SACS first.

我选5%。

I'm gonna go for 5%.

哦。

Oh.

在四舍五入的误差范围内，我认为是5%。

Within a rounding error, I believe 5%.

当然。

Sure.

当然。

Sure.

加减一点。

Plus or minus.

沙巴特，你想选个数字吗？

Shabbat, do you wanna pick a number?

你说过你选了。

You said you did.

我认为下限是五。

I think the lower bound is five.

我认为上限是六二。

I think the upper bound is six two.

哇。

Wow.

不可思议。

Incredible.

哇。

Wow.

为了让你有个概念，如果我们印六，现代世界中我们唯一认为是准竞争对手的国家就是中国，当时它对联邦、州和地方经济拥有完全的协调与控制。

Just to put that in perspective, if we print six, the only country in the modern world that we think of as a quasi peer competitor that has printed six is the Chinese in a period where it had complete and total coordination and domination of a federal, state, and local economy.

而我们能在民主和资本主义下做到这一点

And the fact that we can do it under democracy and capitalism

真是令人难以置信。

is outrageous.

弗赖伯格，你来试试回答这个问题吗？

Freyberg, you wanna take a stab at that?

2026年的增长？

2026 growth?

嗯。

Yeah.

4.6%。

4.6%.

好的。

Okay.

我本来也打算说在4%到5%之间。

I was gonna go with between four and five as well.

关于我对主要政治赢家的预测，我反复权衡了皇帝的学徒、达斯·万斯、J.D.万斯，还是蒙达米时刻。

In terms of my prediction for the big political winner, I went back and forth between the emperor's apprentice, Darth Vance, JD Vance, or the Mondami moment.

我之所以选择达斯·万斯，有几个原因。

I said Darth Vance for a couple of reasons.

你知道，他一直在为特朗普辩护，并且在Polymarket上的支持率飙升， polls 也一路走高。

You know, he is out there defending Trump, and he's surging on polymarket, ending the polls.

他显然是MAGA运动的副驾驶。

He's obviously the copilot of MAGA.

他出色地扮演了二把手的角色。

He's done a great job of being second seat.

他没有篡夺特朗普总统的位置，否则将是一个巨大的政治错误。

He is not usurping president Trump, which would be a big political mistake.

他真正巧妙地扮演了副驾驶的角色，但毫无疑问，他是Turning Point USA最受欢迎的政治人物，也是美国优先、美国至上的原始倡导者。

He's really navigating being the copilot there, but he is the most popular politician clearly at Turning Point USA, and he is the OG in the America First, America Only moment.

但我还是要把优势让给蒙达米时刻。

But I'm gonna give the edge to the Mondami moment.

他今年34岁。

He's 34 years old.

他那边有49岁的罗·卡纳转向社会主义。

He's got Ro Khanna at 49 pivoting into a socialist.

我认为这是因为民主党认为，2026年获胜最简单的方式就是全面转向社会主义。

And I think that's because Democrats believe the easiest way to win in 2026 is to go full socialist.

而特朗普似乎已经让出了这个空间，因为他已经忘记了美国的工人阶级。

And Trump has, I think, given this lane because he's forgotten about the working man and woman in America.

特朗普在经济问题上的净不满意度为58%，通胀率高达58%。

Net disapproval for Trump on the economy, 58% inflation.

尽管萨克斯在那里这么说，但通胀率实际上更接近3%而不是2%，而特朗普刚刚宣布要将军费增加50%，但人们仍在抱怨医疗保健问题。

Despite what Saxe is saying there, it's still closer to 3% than 2%, and Trump just announced he wants to increase the military budget by 50 while people are still complaining about their health care.

特朗普已经彻底变成了新保守派，今年轰炸了七个国家，并威胁要接管哥伦比亚和格陵兰。

And Trump has turned into a complete neocon, bombing seven countries this year and threatening to take over Colombia and Greenland.

谁知道这是特朗普的本性使然，还是现实真的如此？

Who knows if that's Trump being Trump or if that's reality?

但特朗普成为新保守派是谁都没料到的，我认为特朗普由于忽视了美国人民的需求，转而追求国际干预主义，从而煽动并助推了曼达米时刻的到来。

But Trump becoming a neocon was not on anyone's bingo card, and I think Trump may have incited and given a bunch of fuel to the Mandami moment by not addressing the American people's needs and going for the international interventionism.

好吧。

Okay.

这三种回答完全不同。

Now Those are three different answers right there.

我的答案显然是夫人。

My answer is clearly Madame.

我的第二名，我总是喜欢解释我的想法，是达斯·万斯，J.D.万斯。

My second place though, I like to always explain my thinking, is Darth Vance, JD Vance.

最大的政治输家。

Biggest political loser.

去年的预测，我说了普京。

Last year's predictions, I said Putin.

加文也说了普京。

Gavin said Putin.

沙蒙特，你说的是进步主义。

Shammoth, you said progressivism.

弗里德伯格，你说的是亲战新保守派会成为最大的政治输家。

And Friedberg, you said the pro war neocons would be the biggest political losers.

让我们来讨论一下，今年谁会是输家。

Let's get into who we think will be the loser this year.

萨克斯，你先来吧？

Sax, why don't you start?

你认为2026年最大的政治输家会是谁？

Who's your big political loser in 2026, you think?

我说的是民主中间派，这其实和你们说社会主义者或进步派是赢家正好相反。

Well, I said democratic centrism or democratic centrist, which is sort of the flip side of you guys saying that socialism or progressives are winners.

我这么认为有两个原因。

And there's two reasons for this.

一个是社会主义意识形态在民主党的选民基础中日益上升，尤其是那些支持曼达尼的年轻人。

One is because the socialist ideology is sort of ascended among the democratic base, especially the young people who support Mamdani, things like that.

不幸的是，大学和我们的宗教学校在教育这些学生方面表现极差，将许多人洗脑，使他们接受了这种觉醒意识形态。

Unfortunately, universities, our work madrasas have done a terrible job educating these students and they've brainwashed a lot of them into this woke ideology.

但还有一个事实，即真正具有竞争力的众议院选区已经越来越少。

But also there's the fact that there's so few house districts anymore that are truly competitive.

因此，库克政治报告和拉里·萨巴托的水晶球都指出，进入2026年时，真正具有竞争性的众议院选区不到两打。

So both the Cook Political Report and Larry Sabato's crystal ball, they say that there's fewer than two dozen house races that are genuinely competitive going into 2026.

这主要是由于选区划分不公等原因造成的。

That's because of gerrymandering and so on.

因此，如果你是一位民主党现任议员，身处这些选区中的任何一个——除了少数几个之外——你失去职位的真正威胁只能来自左翼。

So if you're a Democrat incumbent who is in one of these districts, like all but a couple dozen of them, your only real threat to losing your office is from the left.

对吧？

Right?

会有一些年轻的AOC式人物崛起挑战你，因此你不想暴露自己左翼的弱点。

It's some young AOC type coming up to challenge you, and so you don't wanna expose your left flank.

所以，即使是民主党的温和派，也一直在越来越向左倾斜，于是你就看到了AOC和马曼尼效应在这里发生。

So even the Democratic moderates have been shifting further and further to the left, and so you see this AOC Mamdani effect happening there.

所以我和你们一样，认为这不是一个好趋势，但我认为最大的政治输家是民主党的中间派。

So I'm kind of in the same camp as you guys as this is not a good trend, but I put this as biggest political loser.

最大的政治输家？

Biggest political loser?

民主党的中间派。

Democratic centrism.

明白了。

Got it.

沙莫思，你有什么看法？

Sharmoth, what do you got?

我能回过头来跟你稍微挑个刺吗？

Can I just go back and just nitpick with you a little bit?

你为什么认为进步主义没有失败？

Why do you think progressivism didn't fail?

我之所以这么问，是因为除了少数进步主义据点，特别是马曼尼之外，如果你看看弗吉尼亚或新泽西的选举，这些地方的立场更偏向中间派，而非进步派。

And the only reason I ask you that is outside of a few pockets of progressivism and specifically Mamdani, if you look at the elections in Virginia or the elections in New Jersey, those are more centrist than progressive.

如果你看一下民主党的整体支持率，会发现它们在2025年持续下滑，而他们却一直在为放弃中间路线、拥抱进步主义而焦虑不安。

And if you look at the general approval rates of Democrats, they trended consistently down through 2025 as they handwrung themselves about leaving centrism and embracing progressivism.

因此，关于进步主义的口号越多，他们的表现就越差。

So the more talking points around progressivism that emerged, the poorer they performed.

我知道你的看法，或者一些人的看法可能因为某次局部胜利而不同，但如果你看整体趋势，这并不奏效。

So I know your perception or some people's perceptions may be different based on one localized win, but if you look at the broad trend, it didn't work.

我只是把事实摆出来，而不是凭感觉。

I'll just put that out there just as just as the facts and not the vibes.

我不想让这成为事实，这一点要说明清楚。

Well, I don't want it to be true, just to be clear.

我会

I would

哦，我不是在挑

Oh, I'm I'm not I'm picking

选票。

votes.

要让民主党成为中间派

For the Democratic Party to be a centrist

有可能。

possible.

要么，但看起来确实

Either, but it does seem

像那一系列。

like that part series.

错了，而我没错。

Wrong, and I wasn't wrong.

所以，嗯，这可能是个悬而未决的问题，最好的描述方式可能是蒙达维效应。

So Well, I it might be a jump ball might be the best way to describe it because you have the Mondavi effect.

对。

Right.

好吧。

And, okay.

只要看看这些数字就行了。

Just look at the numerical numbers.

趋势非常糟糕。

The trends were horrible.

意思是，民主党一开始越激进，提出的主张越激进，表现就越差。

Like, meaning wherever the Democrats started, the more progressive talking points they added, the poorer and poorer they performed.

支持率下降了。

The approval ratings went down.

不支持率上升了。

The disapproval ratings went up.

我不是说他们没赢得市长选举。

I'm not saying that they didn't win a mayoral race.

他们确实赢了。

They did do that.

我只是想说，总体来看，全国范围内，民主党及其对进步主义的拥抱，至少在联邦层面，自2025年以来值得吗？

I'm just saying broadly speaking, nationwide is the Democratic Party and its embrace of progressivism, at least at the federal level, has it paid off over 2025?

我会明确地说，从数学上讲，没有。

And I would say categorically, mathematically not.

好的。

Okay.

现在来看2026年。

Now going to 2026.

我最大的政治失败是什么？

What is my biggest political loser?

我认为2026年最大的失败是门罗主义。

What I would say is the biggest loser of '26 is the Monroe doctrine.

我认为，当历史学家回顾特朗普总统任期时，他们会重新书写这段历史。

I think that when historians look back on the Trump presidency, they're going to rewrite it.

我认为人们试图将特朗普的世界观简化为‘特朗普修正案’。

I think people have tried to minimize Trump's worldview as a Trump corollary.

我不认为这是真的。

I don't think that's what this is.

他们甚至试图通过称之为唐·罗伊学说来淡化它。

They even try to minimize it by calling it the Don Roe doctrine.

我不认为这是真的。

I don't think that's what this is.

我认为存在一个明确的特朗普学说，它取代了门罗主义。

I think that there is a clear Trump doctrine that trumped the Monroe doctrine.

我认为这就是政治上的失败，因为围绕门罗主义已经构建了庞大的政治体系。

And I think that is the political loser because there is a huge body politic that has been built around the Monroe Doctrine.

我们如何看待战争？

How do we view wars?

我们如何看待自己的势力范围？

How do we view our spheres of influence?

我们如何看待经济上的多边主义与单边主义？

How do we view economic multilateralism versus unilateralism?

所有这些都已不复存在。

All of that is out the window.

你知道，我们将这视为对整个美洲的主导。

You know, we view this as hemispheric dominance.

这就是特朗普的做法。

That's Trump.

我们认为这是积极主动的，在特定情况下甚至是干预主义的。

We view it as proactive and in very specific cases, interventionist.

我们对毒品贩子进行干预。

We intervene against drug cartels.

我们控制移民。

We control immigration.

我们保障关键资产。

We secure vital assets.

这超出了门罗主义的原有范围。

That was, you know, not really the scope of the Monroe Doctrine.

坦率地说，我们建立了更具交易性的关系，这使我们能够即时应对。

We have more transactional relationships, quite honestly, which allows us to react in the moment.

所以我认为门罗主义是2026年最大的输家。

So I think the Monroe Doctrine is the biggest loser of 2026.

弗里伯格，你心中的2026年最大输家。

Freeberg, your biggest loser 2026.

我眼中2026年最大的政治输家是科技行业。

My biggest political loser of 2026 is the tech industry.

我认为人工智能和科技财富已成为两党民粹主义的焦点。

I think AI and tech wealth have become the lightning rod for populism on both sides of the aisle.

我认为右翼正在出现一些分裂，这种所谓的科技与MAGA联盟正受到更民粹主义运动的强烈挑战。

I think the right is fracturing a bit where this, call it, alliance between tech and MAGA seems to be getting a really strong challenge from the more populist movement.

同样地，左翼也因为科技与右翼的结盟而对科技行业采取了强硬立场。

In the same sense, the left is turning hard on tech because of tech's alignment with the right.

因此，我认为在中期选举中，我们将看到一场针对科技行业的强烈公投，这场公投也将来自‘好’阵营。

And so I think we're gonna see in the midterms a really big referendum against the tech industry coming out of Good as well.

民粹主义。

Populist.

这真是个绝佳的例子。

That's a great one.

我能跟你们讲个昨天发生的小故事吗？

Can I tell you guys a little story from yesterday?

在我飞回加州之前，我与三位资深现任参议员开了个会。

I had a meeting with three very senior sitting senators before I flew back to California.

这些是共和党参议员。

These are Republican senators.

弗里德伯格，我对你说的话感到惊讶。

And, Friedberg, I was surprised exactly what you said.

有几家公司加剧了他们的不满。

There is a couple of companies that have exacerbated their frustration.

他们认为这些公司——以及这些公司的科技领袖——完全不可信。

They view those companies, these are techs and the tech leaders of these companies, as just not trustworthy.

他们长期以来一直忍让这些家伙，现在对此非常沮丧。

And they've largely been grin these guys for a long time, and they're pretty frustrated with it.

所以，正如你所说，这种感觉是显而易见的。

So to your point, it is palpable.

听好了。

Look.

我可以告诉你，科技行业的天然盟友其实是MAGA，因为我们仍然相信财产权和创新。

I can tell you that the natural ally for tech is with MAGA because we still believe in property rights and innovation.

如果民主党真的走向进步主义——也就是社会主义，他们想重新定义你与财产权的关系，不管那意味着什么，还要征收财富税和未实现收益税，以及其他种种。

And if the Democratic Party is truly going progressive, which means socialist, they wanna rewrite your relationship to property rights, whatever that means, and impose wealth taxes and unrealized gains taxes and all the rest of it.

所以你看，我认为科技界并没有太多选择，就像阿诺·施瓦辛格在某部电影里说的那样。

So look, I don't think tech has that much of a choice as Arnold Schwarzenegger said in one of those movies.

想活命就跟我来。

Come with me if you wanna live.

想活命就跟我来。

Come with me if you want to live.

是的。

Yes.

上直升机。

Get in the chopper.

但让我这么说，民粹主义右翼之所以愤怒，是因为他们还记得那些审查、封号、隐形限流以及类似的事情。

But let me say this, the reason why there's anger on the populist right is because they remember the censorship and the de platforming and the shadow banning and all that kind of stuff.

我认为，这些科技领袖和一些保守派意见领袖之间需要举行一些真相与和解的会议。

And what there needs to be is I think there just needs to be some meetings, truth and reconciliation that happens between some of these tech leaders and some of these conservative influencers.

猜猜看，大卫·萨克斯？

Guess what, David Sachs?

我知道有个人能帮着促成这件事。

I know one guy who can help make that happen.

是的。

Yeah.

不。

No.

我希望在2026年举办一些这样的会议，把这些人聚在一起，因为我认为科技公司要么意识到了自己的错误，要么在很多情况下是被拜登政府逼迫这么做的。

I would I would like to host some of these meetings in 2026 and get these people together because I think that the tech companies have either realized their mistake or they were pushed into it in a lot of cases by the Biden administration.

嗯。

Yeah.

枪顶着他们的头。

A gun to their head.

嗯。

Yeah.

他们枪顶着他们的头。

They a gun to their head.

我现在还认为，他们犯下的另一个错误是，他们只向左翼事业捐款。

Now I also think that one other mistake they've made is quite frankly, they've been donors to only left wing causes.

所以如果你听塞诺维奇的说法，他会说：听着，伙计们。

And so if you listen to Cernovich's account, he's like, look, guys.

你们封杀了我们。

You banned us.

你们让我们多年失去了生计。

You cost us our livelihood for years.

把我们的账户冻结了。

Debanked us.

把我们的账户冻结了。

Debanked us.

赔偿在哪里？

Where's the restitution?

或者至少部分地支持我们的保守文化。

Or at least at least part giving some support to our conservative culture.

一针见血。

Nailed it on the head.

我跟那些参议员谈过，他们就是这么想的。

The senators that I talked to, that's exactly what they want.

他们只是想要一个道歉。

They just wanted an apology.

诚实地说，你们就是这么做的。

Just be honest and say you did it.

加州的这项资产没收征税提案，以及关于其他州的讨论，我认为正在把很多人，至少是科技界的人士，拉到桌前，萨克斯，让他们说：等等。

This asset seizure tax proposal in California and the conversation about other states, I think, is bringing a lot of people to that table, Sax, at least the tech people to say, wait a second.

也许我这些年不应该只一味地捐款。

Maybe I shouldn't have been only left donating over all these years.

也许我不该这么做。

Maybe maybe I shouldn't have done this.

我认为，与人们可能认为的相反，这一举措实际上可能对右翼带来的正面影响大于左翼。

And I think contrary to what people may think, it may actually be doing a lot more positive for the right side than the left by putting this forward.

这可能会在硅谷引发一场巨大的变革。

This may actually be catalyzing a big change in Silicon Valley.

是的。

Yeah.

如果你仔细想想，如果你是扎克伯格，或者你是谷歌的高管，而联邦调查局告诉你：嘿。

And if you if you think about it, if you were Zuckerberg or you were, you know, the Google executives and the FBI is telling you, hey.

我们需要你们来处理这些审查问题。

We need you to take care of these censorship issues.

我们需要你们标记这些东西等等。

We need you to label these things, etcetera.

你知道，如果联邦调查局找上你，而你又在进行并购，这会让你陷入非常棘手的境地。

You know, it puts you in a pretty tough situation if the FBI is calling you, if you're trying to do M and A, and then, you know, look now.

在特朗普时期，并购正热火朝天。

M and A under Trump is on fire.

我们会在我们的预测节目中更详细地讨论这个话题。

We'll talk about that more in our prediction show.

对我来说，我一直在纠结，到底谁才是最大的政治输家：是这些中间派的愚蠢民主党人，还是新保守派的特朗普。

For me, I was going back and forth in my biggest political loser with these dopey Democrats who are centrist and the the new neocon Trump.

现在我不确定特朗普是否会继续走新保守派路线，所以我还是跟萨克斯站在一起，认为今年最大的政治输家将是中间派民主党人。

Now I don't know if Trump will continue these neocon ways, so I'm gonna just align with Sacks here that the centrist Democrats are gonna be this year's biggest political Alright.

输家。

Losers.

既然你已经两次提到

Now that you've mentioned twice that

两次。

Twice.

特朗普是个新保守派，我必须对此作出回应。

Trump is a neocon, I have to respond to this.

不。

No.

你不必。

You don't.

你不必非得这么做，但你可以说说看。

You don't have to, but go ahead.

好的。

Okay.

听好了。

Look.

新保守派政权更迭行动的问题，我认为有三个方面。

The the problem with neocon regime change operations was I'd say threefold.

第一，入侵。

Number one, the invasion.

你有这场大规模的入侵，地面部队，大量人员丧生。

You have this giant invasion, land armies, huge numbers of people getting killed.

花了，你知道的，几个月或一年。

Took, you know, months or a year.

他们花了差不多一年才抓到萨达姆，对吧？

Took them like a year to get Saddam, right?

第二，接着是占领，因为无论你扶植谁掌权，他们都只能依靠美国大兵持枪威慑才能维持权力，最终导致长达十年或二十年的占领。

Number two, you then have an occupation because whoever you then put in power only stays in power if you have American GIs there pointing the guns, so you end up with a ten or twenty year occupation.

第三，还有国家建设，你最终会花费数万亿美元，试图把他们改造成我们这样的国家，以便我们的军队能够撤离。

And then third, you have nation building, which is you end up spending trillions of dollars basically trying to turn them into us so that our troops can leave.

这就是阿富汗和伊拉克的错误。

That was the mistake of Afghanistan and Iraq.

但你看，特朗普做过哪些类似这些事情的事情？

But look, what has Trump done that is like any of those things.

没有入侵，没有占领，也没有国家建设。

There's been no invasion, no occupation, and no nation building.

这场与委内瑞拉的战争，如果你非要这么叫的话，是一次完美的行动。

This war, I guess, with Venezuela, if you wanna call it that, it was a flawless operation.

它只持续了三个小时。

It lasted three hours.

我的意思是，

I mean,

我醒来的时候，就像那个梗里说的：醒醒，亲爱的。

I woke up and it was like, you know, the meme where it's like wake up, honey.

就像醒醒，亲爱的。

It's like wake up, honey.

特朗普又赢得了一场战争。

Trump's won another war.

还没开始就结束了。

It was over before it even started.

他们进去后基本上就俘虏了马杜罗。

They went in there and they basically captured Maduro.

没有美国人丧生。

No Americans were killed.

这是一次绝对完美的行动。

It was an absolutely flawless operation.

他们正将他绳之以法。

And they are bringing him to justice.

顺便说一句，他求着被俘。

By the way, he begged for it.

他在集会上的录像里说了好多狂话，比如来抓我吧，你知道的？

And he's on tape talking a lot of smack at rallies saying come get me, you know?

还称美国人是胆小鬼之类的。

Calling the Americans chicken and so on.

所以不管怎样，他就是自找的。

So in any event, he was begging for it.

我们可以深入探讨更多实施和辩护这一行动的原因，但我认为这并不是新保守主义的政策。

We can go into a lot more of the the reasons for doing it and defending it, but I just don't think this is a neocon policy.

事实上，是民主党人一直呼吁让那位你采访过的诺贝尔奖得主弗里伯格介入，对吧？

And in fact, it's the Democrats who've been calling to put in this Nobel Prize winner that you interviewed, Freeburg, right?

她叫什么名字？

What's her name?

玛丽亚·孔奇托·阿隆索？

Maria Conchito Alonso?

马查多。

Machado.

马查多。

Machado.

好吧。

Okay.

总之。

Anyway.

哦。

Oh.

赫克托·埃利宗多。

Hector Elizondo.

我觉得是赫克托·埃利宗多。

I think it's Hector Elizondo.

他演过

He did

来自青春片剧组的某个人。

somebody from the brat pack.

她演过《逃出洛杉矶》，我觉得。

She was in running man, I think.

Anyway。

Anyway.

但是但是

But but the

你是在说那位古巴委内瑞拉女演员吗？

You're talking about the Cuban Venezuela actress?

我以为她的名字是玛丽亚·孔奇塔·阿隆索。

I thought her name was Maria Conchita Alonso.

好吧。

Okay.

玛丽亚·卡里娜·马查多。

Maria Carina Machado.

抱歉。

Sorry.

那只是我想到的

That's just what

我想起来了。

I thought of.

你是说1975年委内瑞拉环球小姐冠军吗？

You mean miss world miss world Venezuela nineteen seventy five winner?

玛丽亚·吉诺。

Maria Gino.

看。

Look.

民主党人正在批评政府没有让她掌权。

The Democrats are are criticizing the administration for not putting her in power.

但是看。

But look.

问题是这样的。

Here's the problem.

诺贝尔奖并不能让人掌权。

Nobel prizes don't keep people in power.

手握枪杆的人才能让人掌权。

Men with guns keep people in power.

而她没有那些手握枪杆的人。

And she doesn't have the men with guns.

所以那里会有美国大兵。

So it'd be American GIs there.

要让她掌权，就必须依靠武力。

It would have to be the guns to keep her in power.

而政府并没有这么做。

And the administration has not done that.

他们打算基本上与现有政权合作。

They're looking to basically work with the existing regime.

我们卷入伊拉克的主要原因，是因为整个去复兴党化过程——我们不仅除掉了萨达姆，还清除了整个国家的领导层，这引发了大规模的叛乱。

And the big reason why we got sucked into Iraq is because of that whole debaification process where we didn't just get rid of Saddam, we took out the entire lead of the country, which created a huge insurgency.

所以，这种情况在J身上并没有发生。

So there's been nothing like that, J.

卡尔，我在这儿想告诉你的就是这个。

Cal, is what I'm trying to tell you in this case.

我想告诉你的，这是一个完全不同的模式。

It's a whole different paradigm is what I'm trying to tell you.

我们需要给它换个新名字。

We're gonna need a new name for it.

也许贾马塔说得对。

Maybe Jamatha is right.

这绝对不是新保守主义。

It's definitely not neocon.

不是新保守主义。

Not neocon.

我们可能需要为它重新 branding。

We might need a new branding for it.

这取决于，你知道的，当特朗普说他要拿下格陵兰，说他下一步要拿下哥伦比亚，说他要拿下古巴时，他是不是在扮演新保守主义者。

It depends on, you know, if Trump is cosplaying neocon when he says he's gonna take Greenland, when he says he's gonna take Columbia next, when he says he's gonna take Cuba.

他至少在公开场合扮演着新保守主义者的角色，谁知道呢？

He's certainly playing the character of Neocon publicly here, and who knows?

这可能是特朗普在为自己定位，为未来的谈判奠定基础。

That could be Trump just positioning himself and anchoring future negotiations.

但如果你在我选举前告诉你，当时你说，嘿。

But if I was telling you, you know, before the election when you were saying, hey.

不要让某些人当上总统，比如妮基·黑利之类的，因为他们是新保守派，会跟委内瑞拉开战。

Do not let certain people become president, Nikki Haley, etcetera, because they're neocons, and they're gonna go to war with Venezuela.

他们会跟伊朗开战。

They're gonna go to war with Iran.

但这正是特朗普已经做的事。

Well, that's exactly what Trump has done.

而且我们的军队表现得无可挑剔，我的天，我们拥有有史以来最强大的军队。

And as flawless as our troops did and my my lord, the we have the greatest military ever.

所以简直太棒了，向他们致敬。

So just incredible job, and shout out to them.

做到这一点却未损失一名美国士兵，真是难以置信，这充分说明了这些士兵的奉献精神。

To do this and lose no American lives was just unbelievable, and it just says something about the dedication of these individuals.

但无论你多么优秀，事情都可能出错。

But things can go wrong no matter how good you are.

我们现在可能正坐在这里，面对12名被俘的三角洲部队成员。

We could be sitting here right now with 12 captured Delta Force.

我们可能已经有50名美国人死亡。

We could have 50 dead Americans.

战争在哪里？

Where's the war?

已经发生了。

Happened.

但假如真的发生了，你就必须保持理智上的诚实。

But if that did, this is where you have to be intellectually honest.

如果我们面对的是他们没能锁定目标、我们损失了美军士兵，甚至不幸被劫持了人质的情况，那我们现在讨论的就会完全不同。

If we were dealing with a situation where they didn't pick up the target and we had lost American troops and, god forbid, they had taken hostages, we would be sitting here with a much different discussion.

所以我们必须非常谨慎。

And so we have to be very careful.

但我们并没有。

Give but we're not.

我给特朗普加分，但那也是一个同等可能或至少不是零的可能性。

I give Trump, but that is an equal possibility or certainly a non zero possibility.

事情可能会出岔子。

Things can go sideways.

你听起来就像萨姆·哈里斯说的那样，想象一下如果新冠真的导致很多人死亡，那么讨论就会不一样。

You sound like when Sam Harris was saying that imagine if COVID actually killed a lot of people, then the conversation would be different.

但它并没有发生。

Well, it didn't.

这里根本没有战争。

There was no war here.

顺便说一下，关于丹麦。

And by the way, with Denmark

但愿不会发生。

let's hope there isn't.

但愿不会发生，你知道的。

And let's hope there isn't, you know.

这就是为什么我要给特朗普很多赞誉。

This is why I'll give Trump a lot of credit.

他一直很有策略。

He has been strategic.

我承认你说得对。

I do give you that.

打一下就走。

Stick and move.

打一下就走。

Stick and move.

打一下就

Stick and

这个游戏。

the game.

我祈祷他能继续这样下去。

I pray that he can continue this.

就在格陵兰街那边。

The way, on Greenland Street.

首先，即使我们得到了格陵兰，它也不会变成纽约。

First of all, even if we took Greenland, it's not gonna be a New York.

那里只有三万人居住。

There's 30,000 people who live there.

但我认为我们更有可能达成一笔交易。

But I think it's more likely that we'll we'll make a deal.

我觉得我们会提出一个他们无法拒绝的报价。

I think we're gonna make an offer they can't refuse.

好的。

Okay.

肯·霍里。

Ken Houry.

向我们的朋友肯·霍里致敬。

Shout out to our guy, Ken Houry.

也许你可以达成一笔交易。

Maybe you can make a deal.

我们来个他们无法拒绝的报价吧。

Let's make a offer they can't refuse.

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是，怎么

I mean, how

会花多少钱呢？

much could it cost?

我的意思是，那里什么都没有。

I mean, there's nothing there.

2025年最大的商业赢家。

Biggest business winner for 2025.

看起来Freeberg选了自主硬件领域的机器人，我觉得是机器人之年。

Looks like Freeberg picked robots in autonomous hardware, year of the robot, I think.

如果你把Robotaxi也算进去，那就完全说中了。

If you include Robotaxi there, you nailed it.

当然，明年将是Optimus的年份，2027年。

Certainly, next year will be the year of optimus 2027.

查马斯，你提到以美元计价的稳定币。

Chamath, you said dollar denominated stablecoins.

我认为，基于我们看到的监管情况，你说得非常准确。

I think given what we've seen with regulation, that was spot on.

加文，向我们的朋友加文致敬，他说那些明智使用AI的大企业，这也是个绝佳观点。

Gavin, shout out to our friend Gavin, he said big businesses that use AI thoughtfully, another great one.

我选特斯拉，它现在创下了历史新高，还有谷歌，它在所有七家巨头中表现最为出色。

I pick Tesla, which is at an all time high, and Google, which of all of the max seven Crushed.

是最大的赢家，它们实现了65%的增长。

Is the biggest winner, and they did 65%.

所以我对这两家公司都很了解。

So I know both of those.

我想我们都彻底搞定这个了。

We did I think we all all just crushed that one.

弗赖堡，你预测2026年最大的商业赢家是谁？

Who do you have, Freiburg, as your biggest business winner prediction for 2026?

请说吧，弗赖堡。

Go ahead, Freiburg.

我难以抉择。

I couldn't decide.

我的首选是华为，我过去也提到过，这家中国公司。

My number one is Huawei, which I've mentioned in the past out of China.

我认为华为与中芯国际深化芯片产业链的合作非常出色，目前全面发力。

I think Huawei's effort to partner with SMIC to go deeper in the chip stack, and they're just firing on all cylinders.

我确实建议未来一年密切关注华为。

I do think keep an eye on Huawei over the next year.

它将超越预期，至少超越西方的预期。

It's it's gonna outperform expectations, at least the Western expectations.

第二个是Polymarket。

And the second is poly market.

我认为Polymarket已经从一个偶尔出现的奇特预测市场，演变为真正提供了我们未曾预料到的关于时事和新闻的深刻见解。

I think poly markets evolved from being kind of this one off quirky prediction market to actually really providing insights into current events and the news in a way that none of us anticipated.

我预计，在我们看到纽约证券交易所的这笔交易之后，所有交易所都会跟进——我们已经看到Robinhood和Coinbase在这么做，今年应该也会看到纳斯达克的类似动作。

And I do expect that after the deal we saw with NYSE that all of the exchanges, and we're already seeing this with Robinhood and Coinbase, and we should expect something from Nasdaq this year.

阿德娜·弗里德曼跟我们谈过这件事。

Adena Friedman talked to us about this.

但我确实认为，预测市场不仅会成为市场，还可能成为新闻来源。

But I do think that prediction markets could become not just markets, but also news.

我认为Polymarket正处于一个可能迎来爆发性增长的绝佳位置。

And I think Polymarket's just in such a position to have a breakout year.

好的。

Okay.

很棒的观点。

Great one.

查马斯，除了你自己之外，2026年最大的商业赢家是谁？

Chamath, biggest business winner for 2026 after yourself.

你觉得谁是？

Who do you

选谁？

got?

嗯。

Yeah.

这很难说，我的话会选我自己。

It's hard I mean, I will pick me.

没错。

Yep.

已经完成了。

We It's already done.

那个已经实现了。

That one's come.

已经完成了

It's already

尘埃落定。

in the books.

别伤了肘部。

Don't hurt your elbow.

别让肘部过度伸展。

Don't hyperextend your elbow.

已经尘埃落定，从现在开始只会一路下滑。

Already in the books, so can't it's all downhill from here.

尼克，我们需要用那个奥巴马给自己授奖的梗。

Nick, we need to use that meme of Obama giving himself a medal.

谢曼正在给自己

Sheman is giving himself

我会选铜。

I will pick copper.

好的。

Okay.

铜。

Copper.

我们仍然完全低估了在全球供需动态方面，我们所需的一小部分关键元素的短缺程度。按照特朗普主义的世界观，这个世界不再像以前那样多边化，我们需要的是单边的国家安全。

We are still completely underestimating how short we are in terms of the global demand supply dynamics of a handful of critical elements that we need, again, in the Trump doctrine view of the world, that is no longer as multilateral as it was, and we need to have unilateral national security.

如果你从这个角度来看，唯一可能暴涨的资产就是铜。

And if you look through that lens, the asset that is set up to go absolutely parabolic is copper.

原因在于，至少就目前而言，铜是我们拥有的最有用、最便宜、最易加工、导电性最好的材料。

And the reason is that it is, at least as it stands today, the most useful, cheap, amenable, conductive material that we have.

这种材料体现在从我们的数据中心、芯片到武器系统的一切事物中。

That material manifests in everything from our data centers to our chips to our weapon systems.

它无处不在，无处不在，无处不在。

It's just everywhere, everywhere, everywhere.

现在，杰森，按照目前的态势发展，到2040年，我们将面临全球供应量70%的缺口。

And right now, Jason, we are on a path by 2040 where we will be short about 70% of the global supply at current course and speed.

铜。

Copper.

我会选择铜。

I will pick copper.

萨克斯，你选什么？

Sachs, what do got?

你预测2026年最大的商业赢家是什么？

Biggest business winner of 2026, you're predicting.

我说的是IPO。

I said the IPO.

我认为2026年将是IPO的大年。

I think 2026 is gonna be a big year for IPOs.

我不会具体说哪一个，但我认为会有很多，而且会有很多成功的。

I'm not gonna say which I think there's gonna be a bunch of them, a bunch of successful ones.

我认为我们可能会看到数千亿美元的新市值由上市公司创造。

And I think we could see trillions of dollars of new market cap created of public companies.

完全正确。

Totally.

一段时间以来，人们担心上市公司数量在减少。

For a while, people were concerned that the number of public companies were shrinking.

上市公司实际上正在被私有化。

Public companies were actually being taken private.

这将是对这一趋势的重大逆转。

This is gonna be a big reversal of that trend.

所以我认为，这将是特朗普繁荣的一部分。

So I think this is gonna be part of that Trump boom will be the idea.

我喜欢这个观点。

Love that one.

我也喜欢这个。

I like that one.

很棒的观点。

Great one.

我选了去年表现最好的七家公司，其中谷歌是表现最佳的，我下了注，所以对此感觉非常好。

I went with since I nailed the mag seven for last year and picked the highest performer with Google, and I placed a bet on that, so I'm feeling pretty good about it.

我对2026年的预测是，亚马逊将迎来一个巨大的年份，真有意思。

My prediction for 2026 is that Amazon is gonna have a massive year Interesting.

因为它们正在持续用机器人取代人类，为什么？

As they continue to replace humans Why?

为什么？

Why?

用机器人。

With robots.

这就是原因。

That's why.

给你看个图表。

Here's a chart for you.

我之前已经稍微提到过这一点了。

I've been talking about this a little bit.

我认为这是最值得关注的公司，因为Zoox的自动驾驶技术已经取得了成效。

I think this is the most important company to watch because Zoox, their self driving is working.

他们在这一领域取得了巨大进展。

They're making great progress with it.

当你看这张图表时，你会发现他们在招聘人类员工方面基本持平，但在部署机器人方面却急剧上升。

And here, when you look at this chart, you can see they're essentially flat in terms of hiring humans, and they're surging in deploying robots.

他们还通过将协作机器人称为‘cobots’并捐赠给‘玩具总动员’等项目来开展公关宣传，我认为他们将成为第一家实现企业奇点的公司，也就是说，第一家由机器人驱动业绩而非人类的公司。

And they did their whole PR comm strategy of calling cobots and donating to Toys for Tots, etcetera, I think they'll be the first corporate singularity, which is to say the first company to have more robots driving their bottom line than humans.

所以，我对2026年的预测是亚马逊，我会为此下注。

So that's my prediction for 2026 is Amazon, and I'm going to place a bet on that.

我的预测是，JKal运气太好了，他最终会猜中亚马逊，但原因完全不是他所说的那个。

My prediction is that JKal is such a luck box that he'll end up being right about Amazon, but not having anything to do with the reason he gave.

是的。

Yeah.

没错。

Right.

他们会雇佣

They'll hire

十亿人去做别的事情，原因会不同。

a billion humans to go do something, and it'll be for a different reason.

我是个幸运盒。

I am a luck box.

这是真的。

That is true.

这只会带来更好的自由现金流，突然间，使用AWS的人比使用JCal的人更多，这才是对的。

It'll just be better free cash flow, and all of a sudden, more people using AWS than JCal will be right.

实际上，我认为原因在于，如果你仔细想想，我不知道你们有没有过这种经历，但配送业务长期以来一直表现不佳，显然，AWS表现非常出色。

Well, I actually, I think the reason is if you just if you think about it, I don't know if you guys have had this experience, but with the delivery business, which was kind of a dog for a long time, obviously, AWS is crushing it.

但在这个奥斯汀的配送业务中，我们当天就能收到所有东西。

But that delivery business here in Austin, we get everything the same day.

你也会经历这一点，大卫。

You're gonna experience this, David.

这是因为这里的地理条件以及能够将配送中心建得非常近，你在亚马逊上订购的所有东西都能在同一天送达。

There are because of the, I think, the geography here and the ability to have depot centers very close, everything you order on Amazon comes within the same day.

你知道吗？

Know what?

我注意到了。

I've noticed

我已经注意到了。

that already.

我已经开始在亚马逊上买东西了。

I've already started ordering things from Amazon.

你说得对。

You're right.

都是当天送达。

It was all same day.

我心想，等等。

I'm like, wait.

怎么回事？

What is going on?

这是因为我们在城市中心外15英里处有大量空间，20美分，他们建了这些巨大的仓库。

That's What it is is we have a lot of space 15 miles outside of the city center, 20¢, and they built these huge warehouses.

所以你只需要四个小时就能收到所有东西。

So you just get everything within four hours.

他们说：‘我们马上就到。’

They're like, we'll be right there.

这太奇怪了。

It's very bizarre.

所以，杰森，你早上8点买点东西，中午就能送到。

So, Jason, you'll buy, like, virtues at, like, 8AM, and it'll rise by noon.

是的。

Yes.

当然。

Absolutely.

当然。

Absolutely.

当你下单购买伦理和道德时，它们却永远无法送达。

And when you put your order in for ethics and morality, it just never shows up.

我不知道。

I don't know.

又丢了。

It's lost again.

谁知道呢？

Who knows?

这简直不可思议。

It's just incredible.

我们只是处于光谱的两端。

We're just both ends of the spectrum here.

道德就像信任，你好。

Moral it's like, trust, like, hello.

客户服务。

Customer support.

我两年前订购了一个道德罗盘。

I ordered a moral compass two years ago.

到现在还没到。

Still hasn't arrived.

好吧。

Okay.

最失败的生意。

Biggest business loser.

我喜欢每个月。

I love each month.

它躲藏在200亿之后。

It hid behind the 20,000,000,000.

真的吗？

It did?

是的。

It did.

当然。

Absolutely.

不可能。

Couldn't

我沾了点水，所以希望你的指南针永远别到货。

I got my beak wet, so I hope your compass never shows up.

你在这笔交易中沾了点水？

You got your beak wet on that deal?

嗯，桑迪普来Besties时，他想收集所有的Besties。

Well, Sandeep came to Besties and he wanted to collect all Besties.

我们都下了一点注。

We all got to place a little bet.

顺便说一下，我在我今年二月或三月加入政府时，已经抛售了我持有的Grok股票。

And then By the way, I divested I divested my Grok shares as part of joining the government back in like February or March.

天啊。

God.

所以

So

哦，顺便说一下，顺便说一下，

Oh, by the way by the way,

那会花掉你多少钱，上次三倍押注吗？

would it would that cost you like what, the last triple up?

上个季度的三倍吗？

Last quarter triple?

那是一个来自Grok收购Sunny旧公司的小仓位。

It was a small position that came from Grok acquiring Sunny's old company.

我们并没有投资Grok。

We didn't invest in Grok.

所以那不算多，但重点是

So it wasn't big but the point was

是的。

Yeah.

这只是你为国家做出牺牲的另一个例子，我非常赞赏这一点。

It's just another example of you sacrificing for the country which I give you a lot of credit for.

让萨克斯公司把这一点记录下来很好。

It's good for Saks to put that on the record.

是的。

Yeah.

很好。

Good.

这太荒谬了，因为我被指责说我是为了钱才做这份工作，但实际上它一直在耗费我

Well, just so ridiculous because I'm accused of somehow doing this job for money when it just keeps costing

钱。

me money.

这是钱。

It's money.