比尔·格利：寻找费曼

硅谷的传奇人物，著名投资人，比尔·格利。

Silicon Valley royalty, legendary investor, Bill Gurley

他的业绩记录令人难以置信，是投资过优步和Zillow的传奇人物，经历了超过25年的每一个重大科技周期。你不仅仅是一个评论员。

Track record's incredible The legend who backed Uber and Zillow, who's lived through every major tech cycle for over 25 years You're not just a commentator.

你还是一位运营者。

You've been an operator

我很想释放这种潜在的人类潜能。

I'd love to unlock this latent human potential.

在历史上，从来没有一个时期能让你学得更快。

There's been no time in the history of the world where you can learn faster.

你可以增加自己遇到好运的机会。

You can increase your surface area for luck.

我不太喜欢那些反乌托邦的叙事。

I'm not a big fan of these dystopian narratives.

现在要做的就是尽可能快地奔跑。

The thing to do right now is to run as fast as you can

让我们欢迎比尔·格利。

Please welcome Bill Gurley.

很高兴再次来到这里。

It's good to be here again.

三年前，我做过一次关于监管俘获的演讲，当时大家反应很友善，那个视频也得到了推广。

Three years ago, I gave a talk on regulatory capture, and this group was quite kind in how they reacted and how that video was promoted.

我很高兴我们把这个概念带入了公众讨论。

And I'm very happy we got that word out into the public discourse.

显然，现在你经常听到这个词。

Obviously, today, you hear it quite a bit.

今天我要讲一个不同的话题。

I have a different topic I'm going to talk to you about today.

我不会谈人工智能。

I'm not going to talk about AI.

这是一个严肃的话题，所以可能不会有那么多有趣的玩笑部分。

It's a serious topic, and so there might not be as many fun joke parts in it.

但这件事在我心里已经压了五六年了，我很感谢这里的团队让我有机会来跟你们聊聊。

But it's something that's been weighing on my mind for the past five or six years, and I'm thankful that the team here allowed me to come to talk to you about it.

我也希望我们能通过传播这个话题，产生一些影响。

And I'm hopeful that we can have an impact by getting the word out on this as well.

我先从世界上发生的一些灾难说起，以及人类通常如何应对这些灾难。

I'm going to start by talking to you about some catastrophes that have happened in the world and how humans normally respond to them.

这是佛罗里达州瑟夫赛德的尚普兰塔楼。

This is the Chamberlain Towers in Surfside, Florida.

你们可能还记得，2021年6月，这栋楼突然坍塌了。

You may remember in June of 2021 when the building suddenly collapsed.

98人遇难。

Ninety-eight people died.

发生了什么？

What happened?

从一开始就存在设计错误。

There were design errors from the very beginning.

维护计划也做得不好。

There was poor maintenance schedule.

而且，公寓的董事会没有听取检查报告，报告说他们需要处理这个问题。

And then the board of the condominium did not listen to an inspection report that said they needed to take care of this.

三个不同的原因。

Three different things.

这算是制度上的失败。

That's kind of the institutional failure.

技术上的失败则不同，你可以在这里看到。

The technical failure was different, and you can see it here.

这是《纽约时报》的一篇文章。

This is a "New York Times" article.

希望他们能播放，这样你们就能看到了。

Hopefully, they can push play so you can see.

这是一篇3D文章。

It's a 3D article.

如果他们放不了，你就得自己看了。

If they can't make it play, you'll have to watch it on your own.

我们开始吧。

Here we go.

但我让你们看这个，不是要讨论它具体是怎么塌的。

But the reason I want you to see this isn't to talk about the details of exactly how this collapsed.

结果发现泳池甲板暴露在含盐分的海风里。

It turned out the pool deck was exposed to saltwater air.

它被腐蚀了。

It corroded.

泳池甲板塌进地下室，把结构柱弄断了，整栋楼就倒了。

The pool deck collapsed into the basement, which took out the structural columns, and the building came down.

但我想让你们记住的是，《纽约时报》的调查团队对这件事的来龙去脉做了极其详尽的报道，这都源于他们扎实的一手调查工作。

But what I want you to take away from this is "The New York Times" and its investigative team had excruciating detail about how this happened, which comes from doing primary investigative work.

当时还有另外四项平行的调查在进行。

There were four other parallel investigations that happened.

NIST就是美国国家标准与技术研究院。

The NIST is the National Institute of Standards and Technology.

9/11之后，他们被指定为联邦机构，负责调查建筑倒塌的原因。

After 9/11, they were assigned as a federal agency to go investigate what happened in a building collapse.

这两个人，马特里尼、里斯纳和贝尔，会在这上面花五年时间。

These two individuals, Matrini, Risner, and Bell, would spend five years on this.

艾伦·基尔希默是建筑倒塌领域的顶尖专家。

Alan Kilsheimer is the wolf of building collapses.

当你想弄清楚发生了什么，他就是你要找的人。

He's who you call when you want to figure out what happened.

瑟夫赛德镇聘请了他。

The town of Surfside hired him.

兰德尔法官会在佛罗里达州召集一个大陪审团来调查此事，还有17起受害者诉讼，被合并为一个集体诉讼。

Judge Randall would convene a grand jury in the State of Florida to investigate this, and there were 17 victim lawsuits, which got put under a single class.

特罗彭是诉讼方，汉斯曼是负责此案的法官。

Tropen was the litigant, and Hansman was the judge that did that.

所有这些不同的团队都在各自进行调查，有时会碰面，有时互相帮忙，但都在努力找出事故的原因。

All of these different groups were doing investigations on their own, sometimes running into each other, sometimes helping each other out, but all trying to get at what caused the failure.

其中特别英勇的一个团队是《迈阿密先驱报》。

One particularly heroic group was the "Miami Herald."

他们刚刚经历了破产。

They had just gone through bankruptcy.

他们有一位新的执行主编，名叫莫妮卡·理查森。

They had a new executive editor named Monica Richardson.

但他们全力以赴地追查这件事。

But they went after this hard.

负责报道的记者艾伦·莱博维茨在两个小时内就赶到了现场。

The beat reporter, Alan Leibowitz, was on the scene within two hours.

莎拉·布莱斯基带领了一个调查团队。

Sarah Blaskey would lead an investigative team.

他们最终找到了华盛顿大学的教授道恩·莱曼。

They would eventually find Dawn Lehman, who's a professor at the University of Washington.

她后来加入了团队。

She would join the team.

他们为此配备了多达37人的团队。

They would staff up to 37 people on this.

他们制作的3D模型和《纽约时报》的一样令人印象深刻，而且他们最终当之无愧地赢得了普利策奖。

They have a 3D model that's equally impressive to the "New York Times" one, and they would deservedly win a Pulitzer Prize for the work that they did.

当他们获奖时，执行主编莫妮卡·理查森——她也获得了同行评选的年度执行主编奖——说：“我们将继续调查坍塌事件，找出原因，确保这样的悲剧不再发生。”

When they won it, Monica Richardson, the executive editor, who also won an award for executive editor of the year from her peers, said, "We will continue to investigate the collapse to find answers to how this happened to ensure a tragedy like this never happens again."

不过，如果不去预防，找到失败原因也没用。

Now, finding the failure cause doesn't help if you don't prevent.

这是一份佛罗里达州所有公寓法规变更的清单，幸运的是，其他多个州，尤其是沿海州，也采纳了这些法规。

This is a list of some of the changes that went into all of the condominium rules in Florida, and thankfully, multiple other states, especially coastal states, adopted them.

所以，有了改变，才能预防。

So you have change that causes prevention.

这就是我们希望发生这类事情时能出现的结果。

That's what you want to have happen when these things happen.

737 MAX坠机事件。

737 MAX crash.

不幸的是，发生了两起坠机事故，一次在2018年10月，另一次在2019年3月。

Unfortunately, there were two crashes, October 2018 and March 2019.

如果你们中有人不清楚发生了什么，我简单说一下。

For those of you who don't know what happened, let me give you the really short version.

当时空客推出了一款非常省油的飞机，开始抢占波音的市场份额。

Airbus had come out with a plane that was incredibly fuel efficient, and they were starting to take share from Boeing.

波音想反击。

Boeing wanted to respond.

如果他们造一架新飞机，需要大量的教学和培训时间，这样就更难卖了。

If they built a new plane, it required tons of hours of teaching and training, and that makes it harder to sell.

所以他们决定把省油的发动机装到旧机型737上。

So they decided they would attach a fuel-efficient engine to an old plane, the 737.

这就是737 MAX名字的由来。

That's how you get the name 737 MAX.

问题是发动机太大了，他们不得不把它在机翼上往前移。

The problem is the engine was too big, and they had to move it forward on the wing.

当你把它在机翼上往前移，飞机就不平衡了。

When you move it forward on the wing, the plane is imbalanced.

而且在试飞的时候，他们就遇到了这个问题，飞机会偶尔抬头。

And they had this problem during test flights when it would occasionally tip up.

所以他们写了一个软件，一个秘密软件，叫MCAS，MCAS，然后他们把它装进去，没有告诉任何人。

So they wrote a piece of software, secret software called MCAS, MCAS, and they put it in there without telling anybody.

如果传感器触发，告诉飞机正在抬头，自动驾驶就会把机头往下压。

And if the sensor went off and told them the plane was tipping up, the autopilot would push it down.

那位可怜的埃塞俄比亚航空的飞行员，他的传感器出了故障。

The poor pilot that was flying the Ethiopian Airways flight, his sensor malfunctioned.

软件以为飞机在抬头，结果把飞机压向了地面。

The software thought that the plane was tilting up, and it pushed it into the ground.

事情就是这样发生的。有很多人调查过这件事。

That's what happened There were many people that investigated this.

我称他们为六大调查者。

I call them the six searchers.

美国政府进行了参议院调查委员会和众议院调查委员会，司法部也介入了。

The US government did a Senate commission, a House commission, and the DOJ went after it.

KNKT是印尼的机构，有权检查黑匣子。

KNKT is the Indonesian agency that had the right to inspect the black boxes.

他们很快就能看出飞行员在对抗自动驾驶系统。

They could tell very quickly the pilot was fighting the autopilot.

媒体在其中发挥了关键作用。

The press played a key role.

多米尼克·盖茨为《西雅图时报》报道波音已经16年了。

Dominique Gates had followed Boeing for the Seattle Times for 16 years.

他因在这里的工作获得了普利策奖。

He would win a Pulitzer for his work here.

彼得·罗比森写了一本书，叫《盲目飞行》。

Peter Robison wrote a book called "Flying Blind."

你就能明白为什么会有这个书名了。

You can tell why it would have that title.

有五十七名举报人向参议院递交了信件，举报波音公司。

Fifty-seven whistleblowers sent letters into the Senate to tell on Boeing.

遇难者家属也到场了，他们一直守在那里，给国会施压，确保事情能有个结果。

The victim's family showed up and were ever present and put pressure on Congress to make sure something happened.

飞行员工会的负责人非常不满，因为他们装了这套软件却没有告诉飞行员。

And the head of the pilots union was very upset that they had put this piece of software in there and not told the pilots.

波音想跟飞行员工会坐下来谈谈，结果工会偷偷录下了波音说的话，然后交给了媒体。

Boeing tried to come have a sit-down with the pilots union, and they secretly recorded what Boeing said and gave it to the press.

后来，当波音的要求没有得到回应时，飞行员工会就对波音提出了信息自由法案的申请。

And then when they wouldn't respond to Boeing's request, the pilots union issued FOIA requests against Boeing.

这真是闻所未闻。

It's unheard of.

现在，在这种有六个调查方的情况下，也会有阻挠者。

Now, in these situations where you have six searchers, you also have blockers.

不幸的是，在这个案子里，波音和联邦航空管理局在调查真相方面都不配合。

And unfortunately, in this case, both Boeing and the FAA were being unhelpful in trying to find out what happened.

波音一开始指责飞行员训练不足。

Boeing initially accused the pilots of not being trained well enough.

联邦航空管理局拒绝了参议院小组的文件请求。

The FAA refused document requests to the Senate panel.

我想告诉你，对于这些大机构，一旦你把聚光灯照在它们身上，它们能感受到那种压力，然后就会抱团自保。

And one thing I would tell you about these big organizations, when you put a spotlight on them, they can feel the weight of that spotlight, and they circle the wagons.

我觉得这有一部分是体制性的问题。

I think part of it's institutional.

我不认为它们一定是邪恶的。

I don't think they're necessarily evil.

当它们被这样质问时，它们有一种第六感，知道该怎么应对。

They have a sixth sense about how to respond when they're put on the spot like that.

另一个有趣的地方是，很多人开始觉得波音和联邦航空管理局是穿一条裤子的。

The other thing that's interesting here is a lot of people came to think that Boeing and the FAA were working as one.

参议员特德·克鲁兹在参议院听证会上，当联邦航空管理局局长在场时，直接指责他被收买了。

Senator Ted Cruz, when he had the head of the FAA in front of the Senate, literally accused him of being captured.

我们又听到了那个熟悉的词。

There's our favorite word again.

他甚至对他说：“先生，你知道你不是为波音工作的吗？”

And he even said to him, "Sir, do you know you don't work for Boeing?"

这个案例中真正的失败之一是，第一次坠机45天后，几乎所有人都知道MCAS软件有问题，但没有人停飞这架飞机。

One of the real failures here in this case, 45 days after the first crash, almost everyone knew the MCAS software was at fault, and no one grounded the plane.

波音没有停飞，联邦航空管理局也没有停飞。

Boeing didn't ground the plane, the FAA didn't ground the plane.

第二次坠机，我是说，第一次坠机本不应该发生，因为那个软件本应被识别出来，这需要重新培训，但第二次坠机真的不应该发生。

And the second crash, I mean, the first crash should have never happened because that piece of software should have been identified, which would have required retraining, but the second crash should have really never happened.

我想和你分享，我不想详细讲，但这是众议院和参议院的两个不同委员会，我只想强调他们明确地是跨党派的。

I wanted to share with you, I don't want to go through this in detail, but these are the two different committees in the House and the Senate, and I just want to highlight that they were decidedly bipartisan.

德法齐奥是众议院委员会的主席，非常活跃。

DeFazio was the head of the House committee, very active.

泰德·克鲁兹和威克都非常积极。

Ted Cruz and Wicker were super active.

没有人认为这应该带有党派色彩，也不应该如此。

No one thought this was anything that should be partisan, nor should it be.

事实证明，科学界在进行故障分析时有一套流程。

It turns out the scientific community has a process they use when they want to do failure analysis.

这叫做CAPA，即纠正和预防措施，分为五个步骤。

It's called CAPA, captive and preventive action, and there are five steps.

检测、调查、确认根本原因、纠正和预防。

You detect, you investigate, confirm root cause, correct, and prevent.

这一切都是为了预防。

And it's all about prevention.

你想防止这种情况再次发生，但不能跳过根本原因。

You want to stop this from happening again, but you can't skip root cause.

这是必须的。

That's a requirement.

如果你不知道到底发生了什么，你就不知道怎么去修复它。

You don't know how to fix it if you don't know actually what happened.

CAPA是美国食品药品监督管理局对药品和医疗器械行业的法定要求。

CAPA is required by law by the FDA and pharmaceuticals and medical device.

航空航天行业也有规定，一旦出现故障，就必须执行这样的流程。

The aerospace industry has regulations that require this type of process if you have a failure.

好，我们接着往下讲。

Now let's move on.

2005年的卡特里娜飓风。

Hurricane Katrina 2005.

看看这些数据。

Look at these stats.

非常惨烈。

They're horrible.

1800人死亡，40万人流离失所，损失高达1250亿美元。

1,800 deaths, 400,000 people displaced, damage $125 billion.

这里发生了什么？

What happened here?

嗯，负责修建堤坝的陆军工程兵团想让你相信，水漫过了堤坝，是天灾，是自然灾害。

Well, the Army Corps of Engineers that built the levee want you to believe that the water went over the levees, an act of God, natural disaster.

但这只是一场三级飓风。

But this was only a category three level hurricane.

实际上，堤坝是从底部开始坍塌的。

What in fact happened was the levees gave way from underneath.

水从下面冲刷过去。

They washed under.

不幸的是，这也是一场本可以避免的事故。

And that's what's unfortunate is this was a preventable accident as well.

和之前那些案例一样，有调查者，也有阻挠者。

As with these others, you have searchers and blockers.

众议院成立了一个委员会。

The House had a commission.

参议院也成立了一个委员会。

The Senate had a commission.

媒体在其中发挥了关键作用。

The press played a key role.

马克·舒尔斯滕和约翰·麦克奎德在三年前就写过一系列文章，预测这种情况可能发生。

Mark Schlusten and John McQuaid had written a series three years earlier about how this could happen.

他们后来赢得了两次普利策奖。

They would win two Pulitzers.

我实际上有机会和约翰聊过这件事。

I actually had a chance to talk with John about it.

国家科学基金会（NSF）非常重视这个问题，他们搞了一场竞赛，让另一个团队进行调查，而加州大学的两位教授领导了那个团队。

The NSF, the National Science Foundation, cared so much about this, they did a bake-off to have another team doing investigation, and these two professors from the University of California led that.

然后路易斯安那州聘请了路易斯安那州立大学的一个团队，他们也都进行了调查。

And then the State of Louisiana hired a team out of LSU, and they all investigated.

我和约翰聊过，有时候我们又碰上了，有时候互相阻碍，有时候分享笔记，最后他们得出了完全相同的结论：这是人为失误。

And I talked to John, sometimes, once again, running into each other, sometimes blocking, sometimes sharing notes, and they all came to the exact same conclusion, that this was a man-made error.

负责修建堤坝的是美国陆军工程兵团，他们自然就像我之前说的那样，会扮演阻挠者的角色。

The US Corps of Engineers is the one that built the levees, and they naturally, as I talked about, are going to act as blockers.

奇怪的是，他们竟然邀请美国土木工程师学会加入内部调查。

What's weird here is they asked the American Society of Civil Engineers if they would join the internal investigation.

他们付给了他们一百万美元。

They paid them a million dollars.

但随着时间的推移，他们逐渐被陆军工程兵团同化，自己也变成了阻挠者。

And over time, they would just get kind of encapsulated inside the Army Corps and become blockers themselves.

当这一切尘埃落定后，加州大学洛杉矶分校的教授雷蒙德·西德给美国土木工程师学会写了一份42页的报告，详细列举了他们所有阻挠的行为。

When this dust all settled, Raymond Seed, the professor from UCAL, he wrote a 42-page report to the ASCE explaining all the times that they blocked.

那份文件在网上就能找到。

That document's on the internet.

你可以自己去看看。

You can go see it.

整整42页，阻挠的事情可真不少。

Like 42 pages, that's a lot of blocking.

这里发生的另一件好事就是预防。

The other thing that happened here that's great is prevention.

这些不同的调查最终提出了90条建议。

These different investigations led to 90 recommendations.

这些改变已经落实，那些耗资150亿美元的防波堤已经坚持了20年，这很棒。让我再快速讲几个例子。

Those changes were made, and the seawalls have held, those $15 billion seawalls have held now for 20 years, which is great Let me move through a couple more real quickly.

这是福岛，2200人死亡，15.4万人流离失所，清理费用高达2000亿美元。

This is Fukushima, 2,200 deaths, 154,000 displaced, 200 billion in cleanup.

这里发生的事情其实很简单。

What happened here is pretty simple.

核电站前面的防波堤只有5.7米高。

The sea wall in front of the nuclear plant was 5.7 meters.

海水漫过堤坝，冲毁了发电机，堆芯开始熔毁。

The water went over the wall, took out the generators, the cores started to melt down.

没有办法冷却它们，灾难就这样发生了。

There was no way to cool them and the disaster happened.

有内部文件显示，他们预计30年内可能发生10到15米高的海啸，但他们把报告压了下来。

There were internal documents that showed they expected tsunamis in a 30-year window to be in the 10 to 15-meter range, and they buried the report.

所以，如果当时把墙加高，这件事根本不会发生，但事实并非如此。

So if you had simply raised the wall, this never happens, but it didn't happen.

在很多这类案例中，技术失误和制度失误往往是同时存在的。

And in a lot of these cases, there's a combination of a technical failure and an institutional failure.

技术失误指的是产品、服务、建筑或海堤本身出了什么问题。

The technical failure is what happens to the product or the service or the building or the sea wall.

而制度失误则是为什么人类会让这些环节成为薄弱点。

The institutional failure is why did the humans let that become a weak point here?

和其他案例一样，这里也有搜寻者和阻碍者。

As with the others, there are searchers and blockers.

媒体也发挥了作用。

The press played a role.

《纽约时报》的马丁·法克勒在东京分社待了20年。

Martin Fackler at "The New York Times," spent 20 years in the Tokyo Bureau.

他差点就成了普利策奖的入围者。

He would be a Pulitzer finalist.

赖光先生拿了那篇排名第三的报道，又给手下添了20名调查员去追这个事。

Mr. Yorimitsu took the third-place paper and added 20 investigators to his staff to go after this.

影响很大，还拿了两个奖。

Had a huge impact, won two awards.

日本民众纷纷出动，又是抗议又是索赔。

The Japanese citizens were out in force, both protesting and filing claims.

就像美国联邦航空管理局和波音一样，东京电力公司是运营核电站的企业。

And just like the FAA and Boeing, TEPCO was the company running the power plant.

原子力安全保安院是监管机构，他们却从中作梗。

NISA was the regulator, and they blocked.

他们一直阻挠，一直碍事。

And they blocked, and they got in the way.

实际上，这次失败部分原因又是监管被俘获，他们没有尽到监管者和被监管者应有的职责。

And in fact, the failure was partially just a result of regulatory capture once again, that they weren't playing the right role of regulator and regulatee.

他们几乎成了朋友。

They had almost become friends.

而这个故事真正的英雄是一个叫黑川清的人。

Now, the real hero of this story is a guy named Kiyoshi Kurokawa.

日本议会请他领导该国历史上第一次私人调查，他们拥有很大的权力。

He was asked by the Japanese parliament to lead the first ever private investigation they've ever had in their country's history, and they had a lot of power.

他们被告知，委员会中任何人都不能与监管机构或电力公司有机构联系。

They were told that no one on the committee could have any institutional connection to the regulator or the power company.

他们拥有完全的权力，可以以任何方式追查任何人，而且他们开了很多会议。

They had the full authority to go after anybody in any way, and they had a ton of meetings.

这里有一些数据。

Here are some of the stats.

黑川在启动调查时表示，他有三个必须遵守的任务。

Kurokawa, when he kicked this off, said he had three mandates that he wanted to adhere to.

第一，他关心人的安全。

One, he cared about human safety.

他不想把这件事变成一场关于核能的争论。

He didn't want it to be a battle about nuclear energy.

第二，他说调查最终一定要给出建议。

Two, he said the investigation should definitely result in recommendations.

第三，他深知这件事的分量，因为从全球角度看，有三里岛和切尔诺贝利的前车之鉴，他很在意这一点。

And third, he knew the weight of this because of Three Mile Island and Chernobyl from a global perspective, and he cared about that.

有意思的是，他其实是个医生。

Now, interestingly, he's a medical doctor.

他不是核物理学家，但他以极高的风度和专业精神领导了这个委员会，在我看来，他就是一个英雄。

He's not a nuclear physicist, but he led this commission with a level of grace and professionalism that makes him a hero from my perspective.

在我看来，所有这些调查人员都是英雄。

All these searchers are heroes from my perspective.

七个月后，他发布了一份报告。

He would publish a report seven months later.

有意思的是，他们选择先用英文发布，因为他们担心全球透明度和外界对他们的看法。

Interestingly, they chose to publish it in English first because they were worried about global transparency and how they were perceived.

报告的第一句话就说，"核电站的事故不能被视为自然灾害。

And in the first sentence, he says, "The accident at the power plant cannot be regarded as a natural disaster.

这完全是人为造成的，而且本来可以也应该避免。"

It was profoundly man-made, and it could have and should have been prevented."

很有力量。

Powerful.

最后一个例子。

One last one.

这是挑战者号航天飞机失事事件。

This is the Challenger shuttle disaster.

1986年1月。

January 1986.

我记得我当时在哪里。

I remember where I was.

那是一个星期二。

It was a Tuesday.

我当时在上大学。

I was in college.

那是很久以前的事了。

It was a long time ago.

如果你看过纪录片，你就知道当时发生了什么。

If you've seen the documentaries, you know what happened here.

固体火箭助推器上的O型环设计时没有考虑到寒冷天气。

The O-rings on the solid rocket boosters weren't designed for cold.

结果那天早上佛罗里达确实很冷，这个缺陷就引发了问题。

Turns out it was cold that morning in Florida, and that flaw caused a problem.

不幸的是，负责那个部件的分包商前一天晚上试图反对发射，但被压了下来。

Unfortunately, the subcontractor that had worked on that piece tried to object the night before that they shouldn't launch, and he got shut down.

所以，这又是技术失败加上制度失败。

So you have a technical failure and institutional failure once again.

我可以讲很多调查人员和阻碍者，但我只想讲一个人，理查德·费曼，他在本周的All-In大会上已经被提到过了。

Now, I could talk about a lot of searchers and blockers, but I'm just going to talk about one, Richard Feynman, who was already mentioned during the All-In conference this week.

理查德·费曼是加州理工的教授。

Richard Feynman was a professor at Caltech.

当挑战者号航天飞机爆炸时，罗纳德·里根成立了罗杰斯委员会，他们主要加入了内部人士。

When the shuttle Challenger blew up, Ronald Reagan created the Rogers Commission, and they added mostly insiders.

尼尔·阿姆斯特朗。

Neil Armstrong.

他们有宇航员、将军、来自华盛顿的人、NASA的高管。

They had astronauts, they had generals, they had people from Washington, NASA executives.

但有人提议让费曼也加入。

But someone had the idea that they should put Feynman on there.

我觉得他们是想得到物理学家的认可。

And I think they wanted a stamp of approval from a physicist.

好消息是，这非常合理。

The good news is it made a lot of sense.

他是有史以来最著名的科学家之一。

He's one of the most famous scientists of all time.

他拿过诺贝尔奖，还参与过曼哈顿计划，所以他的可信度很高。

He won a Nobel Prize, and he worked on the Manhattan Project, so he had a lot of credibility.

但他们没想到的是，他非常独立，极其追求真相，而且对不必要的客套完全没耐心。

What they didn't know is he's fiercely independent, he's highly truth-seeking, and he has zero time for unnecessary diplomacy.

他们没想到会是这样。

They didn't know that was coming.

他本来不想去的。

He didn't want to do it.

他说他讨厌华盛顿。

He said he hated Washington.

我有点理解他。

I kind of get that.

是他妻子说服他去的。

His wife talked him into it.

但他一旦答应了，就把自己的日程全清空了。

But once he did it, he cleared his schedule.

他把未来六个月的日程全部清空了。

He took everything off his calendar for six months into the future.

其他委员会成员没有一个这么做的。

None of the other commission members did that.

而且他在去华盛顿之前就已经开始自己展开调查了。

And he started doing investigation on his own before he ever went to Washington.

他出现在NASA的设施里，要求见人。

He's showing up at NASA facilities and asking to meet with people.

等他到了华盛顿，其他成员都不想那样做。

And when he got to Washington, none of the other members wanted to act that way.

实际上，尼尔·阿姆斯特朗告诉他：“我们只做评估。

In fact, Neil Armstrong told him, "We just evaluate.

我们不调查。”

We don't investigate."

但已经太晚了。

It was too late.

他已经在做了。

He was already doing it.

现在，关于这件事有三个有趣的事实。

Now, three fun facts about this.

首先，有个著名的故事，如果你看过任何纪录片，就会知道罗杰斯在洗手间碰到尼尔·阿姆斯特朗，说：“费曼真是个麻烦精。”

First of all, there's a famous story, if you watch any of the documentaries, where Rogers runs into Neil Armstrong in the bathroom and says, "Feynman's being a real pain in the ass."

第二件事是他在电视直播中搞了个噱头。

The second thing is he staged a stunt on live television.

他找到了一种和O型环相似的材料，当着所有人的面，把它浸在面前的冰水里，然后拿出来掰断，以此展示故障。

He found some material that was similar to the O-ring, and in front of everybody, he dipped it in his cold ice water in front of him and pulled it out and cracked it to show the failure.

这激怒了委员会的其他成员。

It infuriated the rest of the commission.

最后，当他把自己所有的笔记提交给委员会时，他们写了一份最终报告。

And then lastly When he submitted all his notes to the commission, they wrote a final report.

他们基本上把所有事情都轻描淡写了，他非常生气。

They really kind of smoothed over everything, and he was pissed.

于是他打电话给罗杰斯说：“你知道吗，

And so he called Rogers and said, "You know what?

把我的名字从上面去掉。”

Take my name off of it."

当然，他已经在电视上做了那个实验。

Of course, he'd already done the thing on TV.

他们根本不可能把他的名字去掉。

There's no way they could take their name off of it.

他们妥协了。

They caved.

报告的附录F里，他的所有笔记都完整收录了。

Appendix F to the report is all of his notes included in their entirety.

那为什么我要跟你讲这些灾难、调查者、阻碍者，还有像黑川和费曼这样的英雄呢？

Now, why am I talking to you about all these catastrophes and searchers and blockers and heroes like Kurokawa and Feynman?

因为我想跟你聊聊COVID-19。

Because I want to talk to you about COVID-19.

2019年12月，新冠疫情导致1500万人死亡，打乱了地球上每个人的生活，给全球造成了45万亿美元的损失。

In December of 2019, COVID-19 caused 15 million deaths, disrupted every life on the planet, and cost our globe $45 trillion.

对孩子们的打击尤其大。

It was particularly hard on children.

你听说过学习损失吧。

You've read about learning loss.

我的孩子当时在上高中和大学，错过了人生中最关键的三年。

My kids were in high school and college and missed three years of the most formative years of your life.

我这辈子再也不想经历这种事了。

I never want to live through this thing again in my life.

但你猜怎么着？

But guess what?

对于之前那些灾难，我都告诉了你根本原因是什么。

For all the other catastrophes, I told you what root cause is.

但六年过去了，我们仍然不知道新冠的根源。

Six years later, we don't know.

所以，如果你们连这个已经发生的事都解释不了，那请原谅我不怕什么AI专家的聊天机器人会对人类造成什么影响。

So forgive me if I'm unafraid of what some AI guy's chatbot is going to do to humanity when you can't tell me what this thing already did.

我对新冠的担忧远大于对AI末日的担忧，如果他们的模型真的那么聪明，那就告诉我这里到底发生了什么。

My P second COVID is way higher than my P doom, and if their models are so smart, tell me what happened here.

让他们来解决这个问题吧。

Let's get them working on this problem.

我想把这件事放到一个更大的背景下来看。

I want to put this in perspective.

我把之前跟你讲的那五场灾难的死亡人数和损失加起来，总共是5000人死亡和3490亿美元。

I've added up all the deaths and costs of the five catastrophes I walked through with you, and you get to 5,000 deaths and $349 billion.

新冠的规模是它的3000倍。

COVID is 3,000 times bigger than that.

费曼在一部纪录片里提到，有人跟他说他应该更友善一点，他回答说：“但是有七个人死了。”

Feynman, in one of the documentaries, said someone was telling him he needed to be nicer, and he said, "But seven people died."

如果只有七个人死了，你都得放下客套去追求真相，那当1500万人死去的时候，你该怎么做呢？

If you have to get through niceties and seek truth when seven people died, how are you supposed to behave when 15 million people die?

我还能说得更远。

I can take it even further.

我把所有飞机事故、所有飓风、所有核事故、所有建筑倒塌、所有太空事故都加起来。

I add up all plane accidents, all hurricanes, all nuclear accidents, all building collapses, all space accidents.

你仍然只达到新冠疫情造成影响的三分之一。

You still only get one-third of the way to what happened with COVID.

我们应该想知道这里发生了什么，以便阻止这种事情再次发生。

We should want to know what happened here so we can stop this from happening again.

这里没有发生的是，这很令人震惊，因为所有这些优秀的人，所有这些善意的人，在那些小得多的事件中都做了这些，而且他们以有目的、有意义的方式做了。

Here's what didn't happen, and this is shocking because all these wonderful people, all these well-intended people did this in the other cases which were much smaller, and they did it in a purposeful and meaningful way.

没有一家新闻编辑室投入超过30名调查记者来报道新冠疫情。

There's no committed newsroom with over 30 investigators on COVID.

没有一家主流报纸这样做。

None of the major papers did that.

没有像盖茨或施莱辛格那样的记者，像一位执着的调查记者那样，在新闻编辑室的支持下追查这件事。

There was no Gates or Schlessinger flacker like a dogged investigative reporter that had the backing of his newsroom going after this.

没有像卡特里娜飓风或波音737 MAX那样，两党参议院委员会共同调查。

No bipartisan Senate congressional committees like you had in Katrina, in 737 MAX.

也没有像费曼或黑川清那样的人牵头进行独立调查。

You didn't have a standalone investigation with someone like Feynman or Kurokawa.

没有科学界资助的调查。

There was no science-funded investigation.

在另外两个案例中，NIST和NSF都启动了调查。

The NIST and the NSF launched them in these other two cases.

但NIH没有资助第三方调查，也没有大规模的受害者诉讼来查明真相。

NIH didn't fund a third-party investigation here, and no massive victims lawsuit to figure out what happened.

那到底哪里出了问题？

So what went wrong?

我想和大家分享一些想法，并且想让大家注意几条信息，我觉得这些信息比较新，或者说是新近才被理解的。

I'm going to share some thoughts with you, and I want you to be aware of a couple pieces of information that I think are kind of new or new to be understood.

不过我要先说明一点。

And I want to make one qualification.

这个问题困扰我很久了。

This has been bothering me for a long time.

我读了很多资料。

I've read a ton.

我相信有人比我更聪明，但就我掌握的信息量来说，我肯定能排进前1%。

I'm sure there are people that are smarter than me on this, but I've got to be top 1% in terms of how much information I've consumed.

首先我要告诉你的是，这五个人被当作专家来依赖。

The first thing I would tell you is these five people were relied on as experts.

前两位你肯定知道，弗朗西斯·柯林斯和安东尼·福奇。

You know the first two, Francis Collins, Anthony Fauci.

彼得·达萨克经营着一个叫生态健康联盟的机构。

Peter Daszak runs something called the EcoHealth Alliance.

那是一个做病毒学研究的非营利组织。

It's a nonprofit that did virology research.

杰里米·法拉尔曾是惠康信托基金的负责人，这个基金资助了很多这类研究，他后来去了世界卫生组织工作。

Jeremy Farrar was the head of the Wellcome Trust that funded a lot of this stuff and went on to work at the WHO.

然后拉尔夫·巴里克是美国北卡罗来纳大学的顶级病毒学家。

And then Ralph Baric is the top virologist in the US at the University of North Carolina.

我要告诉你们的是，他们不是专家，他们是阻碍者。

What I'm here to tell you is they weren't experts, they were blockers.

他们的行为跟美国联邦航空管理局、波音和NASA在这些其他情况下的做法一模一样。

They acted exactly like FAA and Boeing and NASA did in these other situations.

我会给你们四个理由，说明为什么我知道他们是阻碍者。

And I'm going to give you four reasons why I know they're blockers.

第一，他们是病毒学界的内部人士。

First, they're virology insiders.

所以正如我所说，当有人把聚光灯照在你身上时，自然会有一种抱团防守的本能。

So as I said, there's going to be a natural instinct to circle the wagon when someone shines a spotlight on you.

第二，他们发起了一场误导性的宣传运动，想把我们引开，不让我们去调查。

Two, they led a misinformation campaign to take us off the lead and to tell us not to search.

我马上就会告诉你们这件事。

I'm going to tell you about that in a second.

第三，在新冠疫情出现之前，他们都是直言不讳的功能增益研究支持者。

Three, they were all outspoken gain-of-function advocates prior to COVID coming along.

如果你不知道什么是功能增益研究，那就是把一种病毒故意改造成对动物或人类更危险。

And if you don't know what gain-of-function is, it's when you take a virus and you make it intentionally more dangerous to animals or humans.

他们认为这样做是明智的。

They felt that that was smart to do.

奥巴马曾禁止这种做法。

Obama had outlawed it.

他们一直在推动，试图让这类研究更频繁地进行。

They were constantly promoting to try and make it happen more often.

福奇在2011年为《华盛顿邮报》写了一篇社论，说利大于弊。

Fauci in 2011 wrote an article in The Washington Post, an editorial, where he said the pros outweigh the cons.

现在，如果你问任何行为心理学家，如果你告诉全世界我们绝对应该做这件事，而且利大于弊，那么在弄清楚发生了什么时，你就不可能保持公正，因为晚上回家想到自己做的事情导致了1500万人死亡，那会让人无法入睡。

Now, if you talk to any behavioral psychologist, if you've told the world we should definitely do this and the pros outweigh the cons, there's zero chance you can be impartial when it comes to figuring out what happened, because to go home at night and think that something you did contributed to the death of 15 million people would be impossible to go to bed.

你的大脑更可能欺骗你，让你认为这件事没有发生。

Your brain's much more likely to trick you into just thinking it didn't happen.

如果你有这种偏见，你连陪审团都进不了。

You wouldn't be allowed on a jury if you had that kind of bias.

第四个原因，也是我认为他们是阻挠者的最重要原因，就是他们根本没有去调查。

And the fourth reason, and the most important reason I know they're blockers, is because they didn't search.

我跟你说，他们不是停止了调查，而是压根就没开始过。

I tell you they stopped searching, but they never started searching.

他们本该去调查的。

And they should have been searching.

他们现在也应该还在调查。

They should still be searching.

确实有人去调查了。

There are people that did search.

但他们不在那些大机构里。

They're not at large institutions.

最底下的那两个，DRASTIC，是一个松散的科学组织，成员们聚在一起分享信息。

The two on the bottom, DRASTIC, is a loosely affiliated group of scientists that come together and share information.

他们有个网站。

They have a website.

你应该关注他们。

You should follow them.

大概有二十个像尼克·雪莉那样的人，都是病毒学家或科学家。

It's like 20 Nick Shirleys that are all virologists or scientists.

美国知情权组织是个非营利组织，他们提交了这里大部分的FOIA申请，你可以给他们捐款。

US Right to Know is a nonprofit that's filed the majority of the FOIA claims here, and you can donate to them.

我已经捐了。

I have.

但我想跟你们说说这五位英雄，他们是我心目中的英雄，从一开始就一直在积极寻找真相。

But I want to tell you about these five heroes, they're heroes of mine, that have been actively trying to find out what happened from the very beginning.

阿丽娜·陈是最早意识到这个病毒看起来像是为人类设计的分子生物学家之一。

Alina Chan was one of the first molecular biologists that realized that the virus looks like it was designed for humans.

她和马特·里德利合写了一本书，这里有个好消息。

She wrote a book with Matt Ridley, and here's some really good news.