丹·德雷福斯：美国关键矿产危机已至

今天我们请到了丹·德赖弗斯。

We've got Dan Dreyfus on the show.

他来自Fortnite Capital。

He's with Fortnite Capital.

未来衡量人类进步的标准，将是我们的用电量。

We're gonna be measuring human progress by how much electricity we consume.

半导体行业，我觉得它本质上是一家工业或基础设施公司。

The semiconductor industry, I view that as an industrial or infrastructure company.

说白了，它就是一个大型工厂。

I mean, it's effectively a factory.

我们要先看清世界的发展方向，再判断需要什么资源才能到达那里。

We try to figure out where the world is going, and then we try to figure out what we're gonna need to get there.

接下来十分钟，我会给你讲讲关键矿物。

In the next ten minutes, I am going to try to teach you about critical minerals.

大宗商品，还有美国这里极其脆弱的基础设施，要想实现我们的技术目标、产业回流、再工业化目标，以及国家安全和军事目标，就得投入数万亿美元。

Commodities, our incredibly fragile infrastructure here in The US that is going to require trillions and trillions of dollars of investment if we want to achieve our technological objectives, our reshoring, re industrialization objectives, and our national security and military objectives.

但首先，我们先简单回顾一下历史。

But first, a little bit of history.

现在，美国的经济增长正处在一个非常关键的转折点上，未来的模样将大不相同。

We are at a very significant inflection point right now in US economic growth and what it's going to look like.

从21世纪初到几年前，美国经历了一场在我看来近乎奇迹的经济腾飞——我们创造了巨大的增长、巨额的市值和惊人的价值，却几乎不需要投入任何资本。

Really, from the early two thousands until just a few years ago, The US went through effectively what I think was an economic miracle where we created so much growth, so much market cap, so much value without really having to invest any capital at all.

想想那些在没有资金支持的情况下崛起的公司。

I mean, think of all the companies that were created with no capital.

比如谷歌的搜索引擎，Meta的社交媒体，他们只用12个员工就花了300亿美元收购了WhatsApp，根本没怎么投钱。

You had Google with the search engine, you had Meta with social media, they bought WhatsApp for $30,000,000,000 with 12 employees, you know, no capital whatsoever.

还有流媒体平台、外卖平台、苹果公司——轻资产模式，却创造了数万亿美元的市值，还有软件即服务，完全不需要资本就能创造这么多价值。

You had the streaming platforms, you had the food delivery platforms, you had Apple Computer, which was Capital Light, created trillions of market cap, you had Software as a Service, absolutely no capital required to create all that value.

但就在我们打造这些公司的同时，我们却在亲手拆解自己的关键基础设施，把它们全部迁往中国。

And at the same time we were creating these companies, at the same time we were doing that, we were literally tearing down all of our critical infrastructure and moving it overseas to China.

所以，我们当时是彻底押注在了这种轻资产的思维模式上。

So we were really doubling down on that Capital Light mentality.

但后来，这些后果开始反噬我们了。

But then it sort of started to come back to bite us.

对吧？

Right?

我们经历了新冠疫情、俄乌冲突、关税问题，现在又碰上伊朗局势紧张。

We had COVID, we had the Russia Ukraine conflict, we had the tariffs, now we have the Iranian conflict.

每次出现这类地缘政治动荡，通胀就像火箭一样飙升。

And every time we had one of these geopolitical flare ups, inflation spiked like a rocket.

得用望远镜才能看清通胀涨到了多高，而且它再也没降下来。

You need a telescope to see how high inflation went and it never came down.

原因就在于，我们的供应链变得太脆弱、太薄弱了，根本没有任何韧性。

And the reason for that is we let our supply chains get way too fragile and way too weak and there's no resiliency in the supply chains.

现在，我们正站在一个关键节点上，想把当年拆掉、搬去中国的产能全都重新拉回来，推动再工业化，同时还要应对一场全新的计算技术革命——它对基础设施的需求，远超以往任何一代。

And now, we're at this inflection point where we want to re shore everything that we tore down and move to China, we want to re industrialize, we have this technological compute revolution that is infinitely more infrastructure intensive than compute was in the last generations.

这导致了对关键基础设施矿产和大宗商品的惊人需求激增，而与此同时，供给却严重不足，因为我们太久没在这上面投资了。

And this is creating this really wild demand shock for infrastructural critical minerals commodities at the same time where there's a supply shock because we just haven't invested in this stuff for so long.

现在，有太多资本周期同时在进行。

Now, there are so many capital cycles going on at the same time.

我这一辈子从没见过这么多周期同时爆发。

I've never seen this many going on at the same time in my career.

我们有航空业的周期。

We have the aerospace cycle.

波音和空客未来十年的订单 backlog 加起来高达一万亿美元。

Boeing and Airbus have a trillion dollars of backlog over the next ten years.

而太空经济也在争夺波音和空客同样需要的那些原材料和产能。

Now, in the space economy, which is going to compete for the exact same materials and backlog that Boeing and Airbus are trying to source.

我们还有电网的建设。

We have the grid.

对吧？

Right?

每到德州冷一点，它的电网就跟美国其他地方的电网是断开的。

Anytime it gets a little bit cold in Texas, the Texas grid is not connected to the rest of The US grid.

只要一降温，电网就瘫痪，人们只能在黑暗中挨冻。

Every time it gets a little bit cold, that grid shuts down and they're freezing in the dark.

加州这边有个叫帕洛斯山的地方，那条电线着火，烧死了三百多人，你知道那条电线已经有一百零六年了吗？

Then we've got here in California, Paradise, California, that power line that caught on fire and killed 300 people, did you know that that power line was over a 106 years old?

这个国家有些电网部件，年龄都超过一百零六年了。

There's parts of the grid in this country that are over a 106 years old.

在加州，要是有一半人改开电动车，或者满大街都是自动驾驶出租车，大家下班六点一窝蜂回家插电，再把空调开到最大，电网分分钟崩溃。

And here in California, if half the people buy electric cars or there's robo taxis and we all go and plug them in at 6PM after work and turn up the air conditioning, we're just going to kill the grid.

彻底完蛋。

Boom.

电网就彻底垮了。

We're going to kill it.

到时候我们都得在黑漆漆里干坐着。

We're all going to be sitting in the dark.

现在电网勉强应付现有的需求都够呛，可我们还没提AI带来的电力需求海啸呢。

So the grid barely works for what we need it for right now, and we haven't even started talking about the tsunami of demand, electricity demand that AI is going to bring.

还有电力生产的问题。

And there's power generation.

我们让中国建了比我们多得多的发电设施，这可是个规模超过一万亿美元的资本周期，未来三十年，每十年都可能要投入一万亿美元。

You know, we've let China go and build multiples more power generation than what we have here, and this is a trillion dollar plus capital cycle that's probably going to be a trillion dollars every ten years for the next thirty years.

数据中心现在每年就要花一万亿，年复一年，全是基础设施和原材料的投入。

Data centers, this is now a trillion dollars per year, per year, all infrastructure, all commodities.

还有半导体晶圆厂。

Then there's semi fabs.

CPU正迎来巨大的复兴。

The CPU is making a huge resurgence.

对CPU的依赖程度正像火箭一样飙升。

CPU intensity is is going up like a rocket.

我觉得这个数字还是太保守了，七千五百亿美元。

And and I I bet you this number is way too low, $750,000,000,000.

我敢打赌，未来这数字会达到万亿级别。

I bet you that's going to be measured in the trillions.

还有国防领域。

And then there's defense.

对吧？

Right?

你知道，台湾现在已经变得像只刺猬一样难以下手。

Everybody you know, Taiwan's turned into a porcupine.

日本正在增加国防预算。

Japan's raising their defense budgets.

欧洲也在提高国防开支。

Europe's raising their defense budgets.

美国同样在加大国防投入。

The US raising their defense budgets.

这些领域有一个共同点：没有关键矿物，哪个都搞不起来。

What the similarity is amongst all of these end markets is none of them will work without critical minerals.

一个都离不开。

None of it.

这些事根本不可能发生。

None of this can happen.

所以问题就在这儿。

And so here's the problem.

去年四月，中国宣布要停止向美国出口一些关键材料，比如钐、钆、铽、镝、镥、钪、钇、铒和银。

Last April, China announced that they were going to cut off exports of some critical materials to The US, samarium, gandolinium, terbium, dysprosium, lutetium, scandium, yttrium, erbium, silver.

说停就停了。

Just cut it off.

而我们离很多大型工业供应链非常近。

And we're close to a lot of big industrial supply chains.

一旦钐钴磁体断供，我们才发现福特汽车公司离全线停产只剩几天时间，真的就差几天，整个福特公司都可能停摆。

And the cutoff of samarium cobalt magnets, we learned that the Ford Motor Company was within days, literally days, of their entire production line shutting down, the whole Ford Motor Company.

麦道公司也是同样的情况。

And same with McDonnell Douglas too, by the way.

这下把国防部和能源部的人都急坏了。

And this put people in the Department of War, Department of Energy into a panic.

但不得不说，他们正在采取一项非常大胆且至关重要的举措。

And to their credit, they're doing something really aggressive and really important.

他们现在走遍美国和加拿大各地，去找那些在过去二十年里被遗忘的小型资源所有者，敲开他们的门。

They are now going around to small resource owners across The US and into Canada, and they're knocking on the doors of these companies that were left for dead in the last twenty years.

他们说：这是三份文件。

And they're saying, here is three pieces of paper.

第一份是一张股权支票，我们正在投资你们公司，让你们能开始把资源开发成矿场。

The first piece of paper is an equity check that we're investing into your company so that you can go and start converting your resource into a mine.

然后公司的人会说：哦，这太好了。

And then the company says, oh, that's great.

真让人意外。

Wow, that's a shock.

但问题是，我等了二十年的许可证，一直没人肯批给我。

But the problem is I've been waiting on my permit for the last twenty years, nobody wants to give me a permit.

他们回答：别急，看第二份文件，这是你的许可证，现在就可以开工了。

They say, oh, look at the second piece of paper, there's your permit, go and start building right now.

然后，他们拿出第三张纸，公司的人就问：这是什么？

And then, they show them a third piece of paper, and then the company says, what's this?

他们回答：这是购销协议，包销加最低保底价，能确保你的项目获得极高的内部收益率。超过保底价的部分你全拿，但这个保底价能让你轻松融到资金，把项目快速推起来、跑起来。

And they say, this is an off take agreement, take or pay with a minimum floor price that's going to guarantee you a very high internal rate of return on your project, where you can keep all the upside above the minimum price, but here's a minimum price that you can go out and raise a bunch of capital to get this thing fast tracked and up and running.

现在，中国对所有这些关键矿产的控制是绝对的。

Now, China has an absolute grip, it's absolute, on all of these critical minerals.

要赶上他们，少说也得十年，很可能要二十年，但我们必须得开始行动，因为不能任由中国随时卡我们的脖子——只要我们没按他们的意思办事，他们就威胁要切断关键矿产出口，让我们彻底断电、冻在黑暗里。

And it's going to take at least ten years, probably twenty to catch up, but we've got to start somewhere because we just can't have China leaning over us and squeezing our testicles every time that we don't do something that they don't like and say, we're going to cut off your exports, we're going cut off your exports of critical minerals, you guys are going to freeze in the dark.

所以，我对政府的这项举措非常认可。

So I give a lot of credit to the administration for doing this.

我从事大宗商品行业已经二十五年了，这种事我以前从没见过。

And really, I've done commodities now for twenty five years, and I've never seen something like this happen before.

这真是我所说的‘突破性时刻’——一种强烈的感受，仿佛这一切前所未有。

It's truly what I call a vouja day moment, which is the overwhelming feeling that none of this has ever happened before.

拿铜来说吧，这是金属之王，这只是其中一个例子。

So here's copper, this is the king of metals, this is just one example.

我们做什么都离不开铜。

We need copper for everything.

你想啊，要是搞清洁能源，每兆瓦太阳能需要的铜，是普通燃气联合循环机组的五倍。

You know, if we want clean energy, you know, solar power per megawatt takes five amounts, five times the amount of copper than a typical base load CCGT gas fired turbine.

风能更夸张，要七倍的铜。

Same with wind, seven times the copper.

现在建一个十亿瓦的AI数据中心，一吉瓦就得用五万吨铜。

Data centers for a one gigawatt AI factory now, you need 50,000 tons of copper per gigawatt.

我们每年要建十五吉瓦这样的数据中心。

We're going to start building 15 gigawatts of these things per year, per year.

一吉瓦五万吨，十五吉瓦就是七百五十万吨铜，光是这些就得用掉这么多。

So 50,000 tons per gigawatt and 15 gigawatts is 750,000 tons of copper that we're going to need for these things.

你知道去年全球铜的总产量是多少吗？

Do you know what the copper supply was last year?

才增加了五十万吨，而这还只是数据中心的需求。

It grew only 500,000 tons, and this is just the data centers.

还有电动车，要是以后满大街都是自动驾驶出租车，一辆电动车用的铜是传统燃油车的五到六倍。

Then electric cars, you know, if we're going to have robo taxis everywhere, an electric car consumes five or six times the copper than a traditional internal combustion engine.

还有军方的需求。

And then there's the military.

你知道吗？在乌克兰和俄罗斯的冲突中，我们使用的炸药量比整个第二次世界大战还多。

In the Ukraine Russia Conflict, did you know that we used more explosives than in all of World War two?

你有想过这一点吗？

Did you know that?

这些爆炸物的炮弹，你猜是用什么做的？

And the artillery shells of these explosives, guess what they're made of?

有一种叫‘铜头’，名字挺巧妙的，取自一种毒蛇。

One of them is called the Copperhead, very cleverly named after a poisonous snake.

这些炮弹全都是铜做的。

They're all made of copper.

你觉得我们会去战场上回收这些铜吗？

Do you think we'd go into the battlefield and recycle that copper?

不会。

No.

那些铜已经没了。

That copper is gone.

所以我们做任何事都需要这些金属。

So we need these metals for everything that we do.

那我们到哪儿去弄这些金属呢？

Now, where are we going to get it?

回溯到人类历史上的摩亨佐-达罗时期，我们已经开采了七亿吨铜。

Going back in human history to Mohenjo Daro, we have mined 700,000,000 tons of copper.

过去一万年里，我们总共开采了七亿吨铜。

700,000,000 tons of copper over the past ten thousand years.

这八成的铜，如果我们真想回收，其实都能找回来，但代价是得把这栋楼拆了，把电网扒了，把欧洲、日本、中国的所有建筑都拆掉才行。

Now, 80% of that copper, we could probably get it all back if we wanted, but what we'd have to do is we'd have to tear down this building, we'd have to rip up the grid, we'd have to tear down the buildings in Europe, in Japan, in China, and we could get all that copper back, sure.

那样的话，我们只能搭个帐篷开这个会了。

Then we'd be doing this conference in a tent.

那我们到底怎么搞到这些铜呢？

So how are we going to get it?

现在，全球每年的铜需求是三千万吨。

Well, right now, copper demand is 30,000,000 tons per year.

其中大约四百万吨来自回收铜，剩下的两千六百万吨则靠新开采。

About 4,000,000 of that supply comes from recycled copper, the rest of it is 26,000,000 tons is mined.

如果我们只按GDP的正常增速来算——先别管数据中心或者绿色能源、太阳能带来的额外需求，就按过去那种节奏——接下来十八年，我们需要七亿吨铜。

And if we just grow in line with GDP, so forgetting about data center upside, forgetting about green energy, solar upside, just growing at GDP like we used to now listen carefully, that means over the next eighteen years, we're going to need 700,000,000 tons of copper.

未来十八年，我们需要的铜，跟过去一万年开采的总量一样多。

Over the next eighteen years, we're going to need as much copper as we mined in the last ten thousand years.

这意味着，每年得有五座世界级的超级铜矿投产。

That means we're going to need five world class mega tier one minds coming online every single year.

你可以自己去查，或者问问ChatGPT，从现在到本世纪末，能新建成的顶级铜矿，一只手数过来都还有余。

And you can go and grok this or chat GPT this, you can count on one hand and have some fingers left over the number of tier one minds that are coming on between now and the end of the decade.

我不知道他们能怎么办，因为建一座铜矿要七到十二年，现有的矿都在衰退，比如智利那些大矿，都超过一百年了，品位还在持续下降，这肯定会成为一场巨大的挑战，也是即将到来的瓶颈。

So I don't know what they're going to do because it takes seven to twelve years to build a copper mine, the existing copper mines are dying, you know, the big mines in Chile are over a 100 years old, the grades are depleting, and this is going to be a major, major challenge and an upcoming bottleneck.

对吧？

Right?

现在最火的是内存、HBM、NAND，价格一路飙升，因为这才是瓶颈。

Today, all the rage is in memory, in HBM, in NAND, prices are going vertical because that's the bottleneck.

如果你想往前看，看看下一个即将出现的瓶颈，我强烈建议你关注铜。

Now, if you want to look around the corner and see the next bottleneck coming, I strongly urge you to look at copper.

所以我们现在面临的是供给冲击和需求冲击的双重打击，大宗商品周期通常持续十五年，涨幅往往好几倍。

And so here we are, a supply shock meets a demand shock, commodity cycles typically last fifteen years and have multiple 100 percents of upside.

我们才刚起步几年而已。

We're only a few years into this.

这才刚刚开始而已。

This is just really getting started.

我还想再说一点。

And I want to say one more thing.

对吧？

Right?

我们之前谈过需求。

We spoke about demand.

现在我们正经历一场需求冲击。

We're having this demand shock.

我们也聊过供应。

We spoke about supply.

但我们还没提到的是，我们正在摧毁美元的价值。

But what we haven't spoken about is how we're destroying the value of the US dollar.

自疫情以来，我们的法定货币价值已经被严重稀释。

Since COVID, we have absolutely destroyed the value of our fiat currencies.

如今，政府债务高达四万亿美元，而且每年还增加两万五千亿美元。

Today, have $40,000,000,000,000 of government debt that's growing at 2 and a half trillion dollars every year.

此外，未来社会负债的折现价值高达十万亿美元。

On top of that, we have a $100,000,000,000,000 of discounted present value of the future social liabilities.

像医疗保险、医疗补助、社会保障和养老金这些，每年也在增加两万五千亿美元。

So Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security, pensions, that's also growing by 2 and a half trillion dollars a year.

所以联邦债务每年增加两万五千亿美元，社会保障负债也每年增加两万五千亿美元。

So you have 2 and a half trillion of growth on the federal debt, 2 and a half trillion dollars of growth on the social liabilities.

美国政府每年的税收收入只有五万五千亿美元。

The US government only has 5 and a half trillion dollars of tax receipts every year.

下次经济衰退时，税收减少、支出却必须增加，那该怎么办？

So what's going to happen the next time we have a recession where tax receipts go down and spending has to go up?

我们只能印更多的钱。

We're going to print giga dollars.

上世纪七十年代我们也遇到过类似问题，当时的做法就是通过通胀和货币贬值，让美元的购买力缩水了七成。

And in the nineteen seventies, we had this problem as well, and the way we did it is we just debased the currency through some inflation, through some growth, the currency lost 70% of its purchasing power.

在那种环境下，大宗商品、实物资产和基础设施才能保住你的购买力。

And commodities and hard assets and infrastructure will protect your purchasing power in that kind of environment.

你去查查上世纪七十年代，哪个资产类别表现最好，遥遥领先？

Go and look it up in the nineteen seventies, what was the best performing asset class by a mile?

这是你们的作业。

That's your homework.

那今天就先这样，谢谢大家，期待下次再聊。

So with that, thank you and look forward to chatting with you guys.

查马斯，我

Chamath, I

在预测节目里，你确实说过，我记不清是哪个类别了，但你明确提到过

think on the prediction show, you was your call I forget which category it was, but you definitely had

表现最好的资产会是铜。

best performing asset was gonna be copper.

对。

Yeah.

而且那还是在

Pretty And that's before

我跟丹聊过之后。

I talked to Dan.

没错。

That's right.

这本身就说明了很多问题。

Which is saying something.

我觉得铜价从现在开始翻倍一点都不奇怪。

Well, know, I I think the copper price is easily gonna double from here.

我见过钼的价格从每磅一美元涨到三十三美元。

I mean, I've seen I've seen molybdenum go from a dollar a pound to $33 a pound.

翻一倍根本不算什么。

So a double is no big deal.

对。

Yeah.

咱们不妨退一步看。

And so Take a step back.

你刚才在后台说了一件特别有意思的事：如果我们现在做的所有事都算上，也 barely 能跟上人类自身不断增长的能源需求。

You said something really interesting backstage, which is if you look at everything that we're doing right now, we're barely going to keep up with just the natural energy demands of of humanity.

对吧？

Right?

你把刚才在后台说的那个观点再解释一遍。

Just explain that thesis the way that you framed it in the back.

问题是这样的。

So here's the issue.

自从二战结束后，我们就再也没投资升级和现代化电网了。

We have not invested in upgrading and modernizing and hardening the electric grid since post World War two.

任由它慢慢老化。

We just let it go.

过去两三届政府都在浑浑噩噩，根本没对这基础设施做任何加固。

The last two, three, four administrations were sleepwalking and haven't done anything to harden this infrastructure.

如果我们只是想实现再工业化、供应链回流、全面电气化这些目标——我所说的电气化，就是把建筑里老式的燃气锅炉换成热泵，现在所有商业建筑都在这么做。

Now, if we simply just want to achieve our objectives to re industrialize, re shore, electrify, when I say electrify that just means replacing your old gas boilers in these buildings with heat pumps which every commercial building is doing.

就是电动汽车的普及率要不断提升。

It means, you know, electric car penetration going up.

还有就是人们会更多地使用电子设备，这还没算上人工智能，连人工智能都还没算呢。

It means using your electronic devices more, not even talking about AI, not even talking about AI.

光是这一点就会导致供电不足。

We're going to have shortfalls just from that.

就因为我们日常的生活需求。

Just from living our life.

就因为我们日常的生活需求。

Just from living our lives.

那接下来会发生什么？

So what happens?

停电？电压不稳？

Blackouts, brownouts?

停电、电压不稳，电价还会持续上涨。

Blackouts, brownouts, and we're going to have to Rising electricity prices.

电价会持续上涨。

Rising electricity prices.

但你之前在节目中提到一个特别关键的点，说电力公司故意把各种成本抬高，好向监管机构申报，从而获得更高资本投入的回报率。

But you brought up a really great point I thought on one of your shows where you were talking about how the utilities are just really goosing up the cost to do everything so that they can report to their regulator and earn that ROE on the higher capital base.

我觉得最让人意外却常被忽视的是，所有的通胀其实都源自这里。

What's really interesting I think is really underappreciated is that's where all the inflation is coming from.

问题出在电力公司的输配电环节，因为过去二十年，哪怕算上最近这次涨价，电价整体还是下降的。

It's from the transmission and distribution from the utility because power prices over the last twenty years, even after the rise we've just had, power prices are still down.

从实际购买力来看，电价确实降了，但名义价格并没有大幅上涨。

They're definitely down in real terms, but they haven't really gone up much in absolute terms.

所以当你说到发电成本很低的时候，确实如此。

And so when you're talking about So making it is cheap.

发电本身依然很便宜。

Making it is still cheap.

但整体成本却在不断上升。

But it's getting more expensive.

原因在于，劳动力——尤其是技术工人——才是最大的瓶颈。

It to because you know, the labor the labor by far and away is the biggest bottleneck.

技术工人短缺。

Craft labor.

对吧？

Right?

过去这十到十五年，我们一直告诉孩子们要做什么，你知道的？

What do we tell all our kids to do, you know, in in in the last ten or fifteen years?

东北地区。

Northeast.

是的。

Yeah.

没错。

Right.

大错特错。

Big mistake.

所以我想问问在座的各位，家里有多少人装了太阳能板或者电力墙？

And so I'm curious from the audience in your homes, how many people have put up solar and or power walls?

到底有多少人真的这么做了？

How many people have actually done that?

所以，大概有一半的人。

So, that's about half the crowd.

第二个问题，有多少人计划在未来一两年内这么做？

How many people, second question, are planning to do that in the next year or two?

明白了。

Okay.

那又多了百分之二十。

So that's another 20%.

很明显，这里的观众都很懂行。

So it's pretty obvious this is obviously a fluent crowd.

他们都在绕开电网自给自足。

They are routing around the grid.

那么，这种能源独立的解决方案是不是在

Is the solution to this energy independence in the

好问题。

Great question.

你知道，家庭和企业之间的情况是怎样的？

You know, the home, in the business?

企业可不会等着政府来行动。

Businesses are not waiting for the government.

所以电网可能会变成一种过时的基础设施，而真正的解决方案将是从底层重新构建。

So maybe the grid is gonna be like this weird archaic infrastructure and it's just going to be a ground up solution.

但不管怎样，工业用途还是离不开电网的。

Well, you're going to need the grid no matter what for industrial use.

毕竟，工业用电的基础就在这里。

I mean, that's the foundation of industrial use.

我们为工业领域要做的事，规模可不是一般的。

I mean, the scale of what we have to do just for industrial.

我给你一个不错的数据。

Here's a good stat for you.

比如，一个一吉瓦的AI工厂，如果全靠太阳能供电，你觉得怎么样？

So, a one gigawatt AI factory, if you wanted to do all solar, right?

我可是个坚定的太阳能支持者，明白吗？

And I'm a big solar bull, okay?

如果你打算全靠太阳能，而太阳能的容量系数只有20%，因为太阳不是一直照着，那一个十亿瓦的数据中心就得配五十亿瓦的太阳能装机。

If you want to do all solar because solar's capacity factor is 20% because the sun doesn't shine all the time, with a capacity factor at 20%, a one gigawatt data center needs five gigawatts of solar.

每十亿瓦的太阳能发电需要占用七千英亩的土地。

Each gigawatt of solar takes up 7,000 acres.

所以五十亿瓦的话，就是三万五千英亩。

So, at five gigawatts, that's 35,000 acres.

这比旧金山还大。

That's bigger than San Francisco.

那我们上哪儿去找这么多地方？

So, where are going to find the people?

最关键的问题其实是技术工人短缺，这才是最大的瓶颈。

Where are going to That's that's the biggest bottleneck we have by way is craft labor.

没错。

Yeah.

那普遍来说，稀缺不是会推动创新吗？

What about generally scarcity breeds innovation?

我看到一些创业公司正在讨论新技术，用来开采以前难以获取的资源。

There's been a conversation or I've seen some startups that are talking about new technology and mining to access.

传统上大家总说稀土，但其实我们所需要的所有材料，其实都在地底下。

I think traditionally rare earth is kind of the pitch, but everything we need is in the earth below us.

问题只是我们现在只挖地表附近的矿，这就是普遍的看法。

It's just that we only mine the stuff that's on the surface is the the general thesis.

你觉得有哪些新技术即将面市，能大幅提升开采效率？毕竟我们现在用的还是百年前的老方法。

Is there a set of innovations that you think are coming to market that are gonna ultimately unleash more productivity than we see as because we're still using the same technology we did a hundred years ago to get this stuff out

从地底下挖出来。

of the ground.

对某些矿产来说，确实如此。

For some commodities, yes.

你提到了稀土。

You brought up rare earths.

从十四世纪开始，有一群人叫炼金术士。

So so coming out of the fourteenth century, there are these guys called alchemists.

那时候他们说能把铅变成金子。

Remember then they said they could turn lead into gold.

当时人们只知道四种元素。

And back then the periodic table was just four elements.

分别是水、火、空气和土。

There was water, there was fire, there was air, and there was earth.

火是什么，当时还能弄明白。

Now fire, you could figure out what it was.

空气也相对纯净。

The air was pretty pure.

水也很干净，但每次他们在土里发现不认识的东西，就管它叫稀土。

The water was pure, but every time they saw something in the earth they didn't know what it was, they called it a rare earth.

其实稀土无处不在，只要能突破提取技术，就能获得大量稀土，真正的问题在于怎么加工它们。

And so rare earths are everywhere and the technology to extract rare earths is going to allow us to have a huge abundance of them, but the problem is processing them.

这就是问题所在。

That's the problem.

中国掌握着把矿石加工成我们能用材料的所有技术。

The Chinese have all the technological know how to convert what you take out of the ground and convert it into something that we can use.

所以，无论如何，都少不了加工这一步。

And so there's always gonna be some element of conversion that you're gonna need.

像铜这样的材料，市场规模太大了，想一夜之间找到解决办法根本不可能。

With something like copper, the market is so big that it's really difficult to find a technology that could solve that problem overnight.

如果我们继续讨论我们一直在播客里反复聊的几个话题——如果我们真和中国形成竞争，而他们又是关键原材料的供应方，供应链的薄弱环节就在这里，那我们能解决的其实是就业问题，而不是末日危机。

And if we are having just to thread a couple of topics we've been talking about on the pod incessantly about, if we do have this rivalry with China and they are the provider and that's the brittle part of the supply chain, we can solve the problem of job displacement, not apocalypse displacement.

美国想找工作的人，这些岗位会是薪酬极高的工作，我们可以把台湾的晶圆厂搬到美国，这已经在做了，还要把产能扩展到北美，我有个朋友叫亚当斯·特拉维斯，他有个自动化采矿系统，也在考虑拓展到南美。

People in America who want jobs, these are going be incredibly high paying jobs and we can start bringing the fabs from Taiwan here which we're doing And we're going to bring both to North America and I understand South America from a friend of mine who's got an automated mining system, Adams, Travis.

我们能在这里创造大量就业机会。

We're going to be able to just create a large number of jobs here.

所以，你能不能谈谈我们总说美国落后，但如果不再从中国采购，对中国会有什么影响？

So maybe you could talk a little bit about what impact we keep talking about how behind America is, but what happens to China if we stop buying?

对，没错。

Here, here.

赶紧开始建设。

Start building.

这一点对整个就业问题至关重要。

What said is is is very important for this whole jobs debate.

我们需要的熟练技工数量几乎是无限的，因为要建的东西实在太多了。

The craft labor that we're going to need is going to be almost limitless for what we have to build.

这真的别无他法。

And there's really no other way around it.

对吧？

Right?

很多方面来看，你看二月份发生了什么。

The the, you know, many ways, like look what happened in the February.

对吧？

Right?

我们把所有工厂都拆了，搬到中国去，谁为此付出了代价？

We tore down all our factories and moved into China and who got killed by that?

那些蓝领技术工人，他们的消失带来了无数意想不到的后果。

It was the blue collar craft labor created all kinds of unintended consequences.

芬太尼泛滥，贫富差距拉大。

Fentanyl, wealth gaps.

宾夕法尼亚州。

Pennsylvania.

底特律。

Detroit.

沿海地区赚得盆满钵满，而内陆地区那些朴实的普通人却被压垮了。

The coasts were making all the money in the heart of the country, the salt of the earth was getting killed.

如今讽刺的是，当年被边缘化的中西部地区，现在这些人反而拿到了入门级的薪水。

What's ironic today is that same part of the middle country, those people that got displaced are now getting entry level salaries.

如果你在卡内基梅隆大学成绩顶尖，刚毕业就能拿到十五万的起薪，而他们干的这些工作， ironically，恰恰可能在取代一些初级白领岗位。

If you go to Kwana University and you're top of your class, you're starting out at 150 right out of high school and the jobs that they're doing ironically are the jobs that may or may not be displacing some of the early lower level white collar labor.

所以情况完全颠倒了。

And so, the tables have totally turned.

所以这是一个高效的市场。

And so, it's an efficient market.

工作机会会流向钱多的地方，而目前钱主要涌向这里。

The jobs are going to flow where the money is and the money right now is really coming in

我们能不能聊几个其他领域？

from Can this we talk about a couple of other areas?

你对其他形式的能源怎么看？不是天然气、煤炭、核能或碳氢化合物。

What's your take on other forms of energy, not gas, coal, nuclear, hydrocarbons?

我的意思是，单从这一点来看，需求拉动最直接的结论就是：所有领域都值得看。

I mean, the demand pull seems like if just based on this, maybe the most reductive takeaway is everything.

但你怎么区分呢，丹？

But then how do you, Dan, differentiate?

比如，你为什么特别看好太阳能？

Like why were you why did you say, for example, you're super bullish solar?

你对核能怎么看？

What are your thoughts on nuclear?

你怎么权衡这些不同的能源形式？

How do you trade all these off, these different sources of energy?

我们国家现在天然气多得用不完。

So we're we're swimming in natural gas in this country.

太阳能咱们想建就能建，这根本不是瓶颈。

We can build solar, you know, that's that's not the bottleneck.

但核能，我们根本建不起来。

And nuclear, we can't really build it.

连反应堆的 containment vessel，我们都造不出来。

We can't even build the containment vessels in this country.

韩国人能做，我们在这儿就是做不了。

The Koreans can do it, we can't do that here.

系统里总会有各种瓶颈，不管是太阳能、天然气，还是铀矿，原材料比如天然气我们能从地下挖出来，但缺的是建造核电站所需的关键矿物。

So there's always going to be these big bottlenecks in the system and whether you're talking about solar, whether you're talking about nat gas, whether you're talking about uranium, we're going to have the raw inputs like the natural gas that we drill from the ground, but what we're going to be short of is the critical minerals to build the nuclear power plants.

比如建这些太阳能板，我们会缺银，尤其是要是开始在太空部署数据中心的话。

We're going to be short the silver, for example, to build these solar panels, especially if we start launching data centers in space.

对吧？

Right?

这些设施会消耗海量的银子。

These are going to consume incredible amounts of silver.

现在银的供需情况是，我们每年用掉十二亿盎司，只生产十亿盎司。

Right now, the silver supply demand dynamic is we consume a billion two ounces a year, we supply a billion ounces a year.

每年有两亿盎司的缺口，而地面上的库存只剩六亿盎司了。

It's a 200,000,000 ton deficit per year and we only have 600,000,000 of above ground inventory left.

时间不多了。

So, the clock's ticking.

再过三年，大家就真要断货了。

We got three years left, guys, before we just stock out.

到时候太阳能这事就卡在哪儿了

And then the solar story is where do you

光伏电池用的银从哪儿来？

get the silver for the photovoltaic cells?

为了我们的孩子和国家，作为一代人，我们得在铜、银、矿产这些领域布局，同时也要花点时间研究一下周边的服务提供商。

So, for our kids and for the country, generation tool belt for us allocating, get some exposure to copper, silver, minerals, and then there's a bunch of service providers in and around that area that we should be investigating over the next year.

别忘了劳动力和服务提供商。

Don't forget the labor, the service providers.

这点特别关键。

That's a big one.

明白了。

Okay.

你打算怎么分配资金？

How do you allocate capital?

你现在主要投资的是哪些环节？

You're at the front end of owning what?

是正在生产的矿场，还有终端应用场景。

Mines in production, but then also the end use cases.

比如，你怎么决定哪些地方不参与？

Like how do you decide where to not play?

因为很多这些领域看着像是绝佳的终端市场，但你很容易被碾压。

Because a lot of these things, it looks like these are incredible end markets, but you can get run over.

如果你选错了市场环节，就会遇到供应冲击、中国主导的供应调控，还有价格倾销。

Like if you're in the wrong part of the market, there's supply shocks, there's supply shaping by China, there's price dumping.

表面上看一切都很明朗，但你也可能亏得血本无归。

It can be all obvious and you could make you could lose a lot of money too.

是的。

Yeah.

你真的得搞懂供应链。

Look, you really have to understand supply chains.

对很多人来说，供应链是个神秘莫测的东西。

And I think to a lot of people out there, supply chains are this sort of weird mystical concept.

很多城市里的美国人还是觉得火腿三明治直接从冰箱里冒出来的，根本想不到每个月有三千万头猪在芝加哥外头被宰杀。

And I still think a lot of urban Americans still think a ham sandwich comes from the refrigerator and they don't think about the 30,000,000 pigs every month they're getting slaughtered outside of Chicago.

别让框架一开始就乱了。

Don't get framework started.

但你得搞清楚供应链里的关键瓶颈在哪里，这是第一点。

But you know, you got to understand where the pinch points are in the supply chain, number one.

第二点，你得确保自己不会被技术颠覆，就像弗里德伯格说的，得找到能替代供应链瓶颈的新方案。

And number two, I think you have to really make sure that you're not going to get technologically disrupted where you can find I think this was to Friedberg's point where you can find something that's going to replace that tightness in the supply chain.

给丹鼓个掌。

Give it up for Dan.

对。

Yeah.

讲得太好了。

Well done.

非常有启发性。

Very, very informative.

谢谢，兄弟。

Thanks, bro.