债务螺旋还是新黄金时代？超级碗内幕交易、蓬勃发展的代币预算、法拉利新款电动车

他说：嘿。

He says, hey.

你最近怎么样？

How are doing?

他接着说：老兄。

He goes, man.

这个季度业绩太棒了。

Quarter was a blockbuster.

你会去买入这只股票。

You would go and buy the stock.

从2000年代开始，这种行为变得非法了。

And starting in the 2 thousands, it became illegal.

过去曾存在一些利用这种信息差进行套利的网络。

And there used to be these networks of information arbitrage that that took advantage of this.

现在这是沃伦·巴菲特在Reg FD前后收益的示例。

Now this is an example of Warren Buffett's returns pre and post reg FD.

那么，你看到了什么？

Now what do you see?

当这种信息共享合法时，他的回报是市场回报的两倍。

His returns were double the market returns when this kind of information sharing was legal.

一旦这种行为被禁止，你必须和所有人一样基于相同的资讯行动，他的回报就降到了市场水平。

And the minute that it became illegal and you had to basically act on the same edge as everybody else, his returns went to the market return.

他创造了零超额收益。

He generated zero alpha.

事实上，他可能在边际上还略微亏损了一点。

In fact, he probably, on the margins, lost a little bit.

所以，这是世界上最好的投资者。

So this is the single best investor in the world.

这就是信息对称时会发生的情况。

This is what happens when you have information symmetry.

所以，这只是为了说明，当存在信息不对称时，市场才会繁荣。

So it's just meant to explain that markets thrive when there's asymmetry.

在信息不对称的情况下，将创造数千亿美元的价值。

Billions and billions of dollars will be made in asymmetry.

今天的预测市场，除非被监管取缔或关闭，否则将类似于《公平披露法规》出台前的股票市场。

The prediction markets today, unless they are regulated out of existence or shut down, will look like the stock market pre reg FD.

我们能做的唯一选择就是不参与下注，因为否则，你将看到大量专业玩家利用大量业余玩家。

And there's nothing we can do except choose not to bet it Because otherwise, what you're gonna have are a ton of sharps taking advantage of a ton of squares.

我认为这就是最终的结果。

And I think that's the end state.

查马斯，这些市场对社会来说是好是坏？

Chamath, why is it good or bad for society that these exist?

你对此有什么看法？

Do you have a take on that?

有一部分预测市场关乎社会的良性运作，而利用内部信息能更快地接近真相。

There are a certain percentage of these prediction markets that are about the well functioning of society, and the use of inside information gets to the truth faster.

我认为这很有价值，尤其是当它揭露腐败或不当行为时。

And I think that has value, especially if it uncovers corruption or misdeeds.

如果人们在这一过程中赚到了钱，而这种激励促使人们绕开原本可能存在的举报人法律或其他障碍，更快地揭示真相并公之于众，那么这可能对社会有益。

And so if people make money along the way and that's the incentive that it takes for folks to work around what would otherwise be whistleblower laws or something else to get to the truth and get it out there faster, that probably benefits society.

但还存在其他一些情况，有些人会设立一个他们自己了解且能操控、而其他人却毫不知情的市场。

Now there's a bunch of other things where some people will just set up a market that they know about and that they can control that other people aren't unaware.

这并不好。

That's not good.

但不幸的是，当一个预测市场建立时，我们无法分辨它属于哪一种情况。

But unfortunately, there's no way to discern when a prediction market gets created whether it's a or b.

因此，你必须决定：是更看重能够更快速、更准确地理解当前事件，还是不看重这一点。

And so you have to decide whether it's more important that you can understand these current events faster with more accuracy or not.

我认为，这个决定必须在这里做出，这也是政治家和整个社会需要做出的抉择。

And I think that's where this decision has to come to, and that's what politicians need to decide and society needs to decide.

好的。

Alright.

我们非常期待再次举办另一场活动。

We're really excited that we're doing another event.

是的。

Yes.

来自你们的朋友“All In”的全新活动。

A new event from your friends at All In.

最好的朋友们将在5月31日至6月3日于葡萄酒之乡举办一场新的会议、静修营和峰会。

The besties are hosting a new conference, a retreat, a summit in wine country, May 31 through June 3.

这个活动叫‘流动性’。

It's called liquidity.

这是为资本配置者、有限合伙人和普通合伙人举办的。

This is for capital allocators and LPs and GPs.

查莫，也许你能谈谈我们对这次活动的愿景。

Chamop, maybe you could talk a little bit about the vision we have here for the event.

每年都会有一些会议是真正赚钱的。

There are a handful of conferences that happen every year where money is made.

我给你举几个例子。

I'll give you a couple of examples.

每年都会邀请所有顶尖的市场交易员参加一个叫IRA Zone的活动，在那里你要面对大量观众，展示你最出色的多头或空头观点。

All the top market traders have been invited to this thing called IRA Zone every year where you go in front of a large audience, present your best long or short idea.

你可以是债券交易员、信贷交易员。

And you can be a debt trader, a credit trader.

你可以是股票交易员。

You can be an equities trader.

我已经参加过好几次了。

I've done it several times.

阿克曼也参加过。

Ackman has done it.

大卫·艾因霍恩也参加过。

David Einhorn has done it.

克里夫·罗宾斯也参加过。

Cliff Robbins has done it.

这些都是非常了不起的平台。

These are incredible places.

而且门票价格高达一万美元。

And you pay, like, $10,000 a ticket.

如果你把这些投资组合拿来看，它们的表现通常都非常出色。

And if you take those portfolios, they tend to do really well.

此外，投资银行还会组织一些非公开、不对外公开的会议，邀请他们最重要的交易员到一个房间里，每人有几分钟时间来展示他们对公开股票的最佳多头和空头观点。

Separately, there are conferences that investment banks organize that are off the record, not publicly accessible, where they ask their biggest traders to come to a room, and they'll give them each a few minutes to present their best long and short ideas of public stocks.

还有类似的投资银行为私营公司举办的会议，那些增长最快的私营公司会出席，CEO们登台进行演讲。

Then there are these equivalent conferences that investment banks do for private companies where the best fast growing private companies show up, and the CEOs get on stage, and they give presentations.

所有这些活动目前都已关闭。

All of these things have been closed.

我想彻底打破这种封闭状态。

I would like to blow that wide open.

那么我们该怎么做？

So what will we do?

我们将召集公共市场最优秀的投资者、最顶尖的对冲基金经理、最出色的私募市场投资者、最佳的成长型投资者、最杰出的信贷投资者，以及代表数万亿美元资本的最多数量的有限合伙人，还有科技领域增长最快、最重要的公司的首席执行官们。

We will convene the best investors in public markets, the best hedge fund managers, the best private market investors, the best growth investors, the best credit investors, and the largest cohort of LPs representing trillions of dollars of capital and the CEOs of the fastest growing and most important companies in technology.

在接下来的几天里，我们将安排一些演讲。

And what we will do over the course of a few days is we'll have some presentations.

我们将分享最佳投资见解。

We'll have best ideas.

我们将建立人脉关系。

We'll build relationships.

由此可能会产生一些投资机会。

There may be some investments that may happen as a result of that.

我们要关闭所有的安菲尔德。

We're gonna shut down all of the Anfield.

我们要关闭法国洗衣店。

We're gonna shut down the French Laundry.

我们要关闭所有这些场所，把它们变成我们的两天游乐场，在那里我们建立关系、配置资本，并可能因此赚到一些钱。

We're gonna shut down all of it, and it'll be ours for a two day playground where we will build relationships, allocate capital, and maybe make some money as a result.

所以你需要申请。

So you need to apply.

我们会向一些原本可能无法参与的人进行一些分配。

We will make some allocations to some folks that may not otherwise get in.

我们会向一些新兴管理者分配资源，他们可能需要筹集资金并扩大规模，但能向我们展示良好的回报。

We'll make some allocations to emerging managers who may need to raise capital and scale up but can show us good returns.

随着时间推移，我们会找到方法扩大这些举措，让它们越来越公开化。

And over time, we'll find a way to increase a lot of this and make it more and more publicly accessible.

我们将把所有我参与过的、一直局限于封闭房间的这些内容整合起来，并向外界开放。

We have what we are going to essentially take all of these things that I've been a part of that have been in closed rooms, and we're gonna put them together and open it up.

是的。

Yeah.

说得很好。

Well said.

说得很好。

Well said.

这将是一场精彩的活动。

It's gonna be a wonderful event.

弗里德伯格，对于这个活动，有什么让你期待的地方吗？

Friedberg, anything you're excited about in terms of the event?

没有。

No.

我喜欢简斯维尔。

I love Janesville.

我们要去简斯维尔，所以我很期待。

We're going to Janesville, so I'm looking forward to that.

那一定会很棒。

It's gonna be great.

我的意思是，地点很美，而且我认为会有充足的时间进行会议和社交。

I mean, beautiful location, and I think there's gonna be ample time for meetings, networking.

J Cal，如果你是投资者，可以访问网站

J Cal, if you're an investor, you can go to the website to

allin.com/events，提交你的申请。

allin.com/events, and you can submit your application.

我们不可能让每个人都参加，这并不是一个普通开放的活动。

We can't have everybody there, and this is not like a general admission type event.

它专为这一群资本配置者而设。

It is specifically for this group of people, capital allocators.

所以请访问网站 allin.com/events 提交申请。

So apply at the website, allin.com/events.

这将会非常棒，Shamaf 正在全力投入这件事。

It's gonna be wonderful, and Shamaf is putting his focus on it.

我可以告诉你，因为我把我的前五个想法拿给他，他说不行。

I can tell you because I brought him my first five ideas, and he was like, no.

不行。

No.

不行。

No.

好的。

Yes.

但更好。

But better.

是的。

Yes.

是的。

Yes.

所以他很投入，他会把它做得非常紧凑。

So he is engaged, and he's gonna make it super tight and tight.

评判。

Judging.

对吧？

Right?

我就是在评判。

I'm I'm being judgy.

很好。

Good.

我喜欢这个。

I like it.

我喜欢这个。

I like it.

你知道，所有伟大的事件、伟大的艺术背后都有一些独特的视角，我们非常高兴能有你这样敏锐的视角来参与这个项目。

You know, all great events, all great art is has some perspective behind it, and we're excited to have your sharp perspective behind this one.

流动性，5月31日至6月3日。

Liquidity, May 31 to June 3.

Allin.com/events。

Allin.com/events.

好的。

Okay.

我们继续下一个话题。

Let's move on to our next topic.

新的CBO报告发布了。

The new CBO report is out.

弗赖堡，你说我们正陷入债务死亡螺旋。

Freiburg, you said we are in a debt death spiral.

国会预算办公室于2月11日星期三发布了其长期预算预测。

The congressional budget offer released its long term budget forecast on Wednesday, February 11.

以下是相关数据。

Here are the numbers.

2026年的赤字为1.9万亿美元。

2026 deficit is 1,900,000,000,000.0.

这接近GDP的6%，远高于我们在本播客中从斯科特·贝松那里听到的3% GDP目标。

That's nearly 6% of GDP, much higher than the 3% GDP target we heard from Scott Besson on this podcast.

社会保障。

Social Security.

之前我们已经讨论过这个问题，弗赖堡。

Talked about that before Freeburg.

信托基金将在2032年耗尽，比之前预期提前了一年。

Trust runs out in 2032, one year earlier than previously expected.

这显然会引发各种关于紧缩措施的讨论，而人们并不喜欢这些措施。

That's obviously gonna trigger all kinds of discussions around austerity measures that folks will not like.

债务将从今天的31万亿美元增长到2036年的56万亿美元，所以情况并没有停止，各位。

The debt will now grow from 31,000,000,000,000 today to 56,000,000,000,000 in 2036, so it is not stopping, folks.

从2026年到2036年，我们每年的平均赤字将达到2.5万亿美元。

We are looking at an average of 2,500,000,000,000.0 per year from 2026 to 2036.

目前，我们的债务占GDP的比例为120%。

Also, currently, we're at a 120% debt to GDP.

众议院预算委员会预计这一比例在2036年将升至135%，略有上升。

House committee on budget expects it to be a 135, so slightly up in 2036.

作为对比，日本是237%。

For comparison, Japan is 237.

新加坡是176%。

Singapore, a 176.

委内瑞拉是164%。

Venezuela, a 164.

希腊，154。

The Greeks, one fifty four.

英国，94。

UK, 94.

二十年前，我们的债务与GDP之比仅为60%。

Twenty years ago, our debt to GDP was but 60%.

以下是报告中的一段直接引述。

Here's a direct quote from the report.

财政轨迹是不可持续的。

The fiscal trajectory is not sustainable.

好的。

Okay.

多姆博士。

Doctor Dohm.

弗里德伯格，你怎么看？

What do you think, Friedberg?

这是你的故事，你闪耀的机会。

This is your story, your chance to shine.

嗯，目前没有达到3%赤字占GDP比例的前景。

Well, there's no outlook to 3% deficit GDP.

他就在那儿。

There he is.

如果你看一下这些假设，其中一个关键假设是短期利率——这在很大程度上决定了大量债务的再融资——被设定在约3.1%。

And if you look at the assumptions, one of the key assumptions is that the short term interest rate, which is largely how a lot of the debt is getting refinanced, is modeled to be around 3.1%.

但如果利率上升至5%左右，正如我过去提到的，仅以当前的债务水平计算，每年的利息支出将额外增加6500亿美元，使利息支出几乎达到每年2万亿美元，仅仅用于支付过去债务的利息。

But if rates climb closer to 5%, as I mentioned in the past, just using the current debt levels, it adds another 650,000,000,000 a year of interest expense, which takes interest expense almost up to 2,000,000,000,000 a year just paying the interest on the past debt.

由于我们存在财政赤字，这部分新增的利息支出每年都会推高债务总额。

And because we're running a deficit, that new interest expense increases the debt every year.

因此，仅因支付过去债务的利息，债务就不断攀升。

So the debt goes up and up and up just by adding interest on past debt.

于是，这就形成了我们多次强调的恶性循环。

And so this becomes the death spiral that we've kind of highlighted many times.

所以，这份报告中没有任何内容我认为会改变前景。

So there's nothing in this report that I think changes the outlook.

这相当可怕。

It's pretty scary.

我会说，我越来越担心的触发点是：如果民主党赢得中期选举，并且在2028年有一位民主党人入主白宫，我认为更大的问题是所有州和地方的义务。

I'll say that the trigger point that I'm getting more and more concerned about, if the Democrats win the midterms and you end up with a Democrat in the White House in 2028, I think that there's a bigger problem at foot, which is all of the state and local obligations.

我们已经谈过社会保障。

We've talked about Social Security.

它看起来将在几年内耗尽资金，因此他们将需要印更多的钱来支付社会保障的义务。

It looks like it's gonna run out of money in a few years here, and so they're gonna need to print a lot more money to fund Social Security obligations.

他们几乎不可能大幅削减社会保障，因为这样做没人能当选，承诺这样做的人也选不上。

It's very unlikely they're gonna make a massive cut to Social Security because no one will get elected if they did that, and no one will get elected if they promise to do that.

州和地方层面也存在类似的问题，那就是养老金义务。

And there's a similar problem at the state and local level, which is that there's pension obligations.

我们已经对此进行了广泛讨论。

We've talked about this extensively.

加利福尼亚州对即将退休的公共退休人员和公共雇员有着近一万亿美元的未筹资养老金义务。

California has nearly a trillion dollars of unfunded pension obligations to its public retirees or public employees that are going to retire.

如果你在2028年看到一个由民主党控制的国会和一位民主党总统，你很可能看到这些义务被联邦化，也就是说联邦政府将介入援助或支持这些州和地方政府，否则将引发一场真正的经济危机。

If you end up with a democrat controlled house and a democrat president in 2028, you'll very likely see a federalization of that obligation, meaning that the federal government will step in to bail out or support those state and local governments because otherwise there's gonna be a real kind of economic crisis afoot.

因此，当你把这笔即将爆发的负债叠加到当前的CBO报告上时——而这份报告在未来五到十年内完全未包含这些内容——我认为这不仅仅是压垮骆驼的最后一根稻草，而是压垮骆驼的混凝土。

So when you add that liability coming to hit this CBO report, which doesn't include any of that in the next five to ten years, I think that could be not just the straw that breaks the camel's back, but the concrete that breaks the camel's back.

这正是我最担心的事情。

And that's the thing I'm most worried about.

城市层面的社会主义运动，如今正越来越多地延伸到州层面，这与美元走势、联邦支出、联邦赤字和联邦债务之间存在着深刻的联系，未来几年内，这些因素无论以何种方式都会相互拖拽，陷入困境。

There is a deep connection between what's going on with the socialist movements at a city level and now increasingly the state level and what we should expect to happen with the US dollar and how it relates to federal spending and federal deficits and federal debt, and these are going to be dragging each other into a bad place in the next couple of years one way or the other.

所以，你知道，目前我更担心的是这一点。

So, you know, that's kind of what I'm more worried about at this point.

如果我们连削减开支或让国会批准必要的预算削减都如此困难，无法让我们摆脱这场债务死亡螺旋，那么想象一下，未来几年如果我们还得救助或联邦化州和地方债务及养老金义务，情况会有多糟糕。

It seems if it's very hard to cut spending or get congress to approve budget cuts that we need to save ourselves from this debt death spiral, imagine how much worse it's gonna be in the next couple of years if we have to bail out or federalize state and local debt and state and local pension obligations.

这将会变得非常糟糕。

It's gonna be really nasty.

所以这是我最担心的事情，是的。

So that's the thing I worry about the most Yeah.

在我的医生那里，医生。

In my doctor, Doctor.

末日帽。

Doomhat.

是的。

Yeah.

我认为这是联邦层面没人谈论、人人都忽视的问题，因为他们认为这只是州和地方的问题。

And I think that that's one of the things that no one talks about at the federal level, and everyone ignores it because they assume it's a state and local problem.

正如我们之前讨论过的，我会再提一次，并请我在政府工作的同事思考这个想法：如果我们能找到一种方式，让州和地方政府申请破产以重组其财政义务或养老金义务，或许我们就能找到出路。

As we've talked about, and I'll bring it up again, and I'll ask my colleague who works in the administration to think about this idea that, you know, if we can find a way to declare bankruptcy to restructure the the fiscal obligations or the the pension obligations that sit at the state and local level, we may have a way out.

但除此之外，这将进一步加剧联邦层面的问题。

But short of that, that's gonna pile on to this this federal problem.

萨克斯，你对国会预算办公室报告和这种债务死亡螺旋有什么看法？

Sachs, your thoughts on the CBO report and this death spiral debt death spiral.

我们所有人都认同联邦支出、赤字和债务这个问题。

Well, we all agree about the problem of federal spending and the deficit and the debt.

我们都对此感到担忧。

We're all concerned about that.

然而，关于国会预算办公室的研究，我只想指出，其中一个关键假设是，国会预算办公室预测2026年实际GDP仅增长2.2%。

With respect to the CBO study, however, I'll just note that one of the key assumptions here is that CBO projects that real GDP will only grow by 2.2 this year in 2026.

考虑到去年第三季度我们增长了超过4%，而第四季度的初步数据超过5%，这个假设非常低。

That's a very low assumption given that we grew by over 4% in Q3 last year and the preliminary number for Q4 was over 5%.

而且我认为，当我们做GDP增长预测那期节目时，我们所有的预测都是5%以上。

And I think all of our predictions for GDP growth this year when we did our predictions episode was 5% plus.

所以2.2%是一个相当低的数字。

So 2.2% is a pretty low number.

然后他们预测，2026年之后增长率将放缓至1.8%。

And then they predict that it's gonna slow to 1.8% after 2026.

因此，这些增长假设非常微弱、乏力。

So again, these are very meager anemic growth assumptions.

如果你相信所有这些投资在人工智能基础设施上的资本支出最终会有回报，那么经济增长率可能会高得多。

And if you believe that all of this capex that's being invested in AI infrastructure is gonna have a payoff, then growth rates could be a lot higher.

而我认为，最终摆脱债务螺旋的方法是我们需要强劲的经济增长。

And that ultimately I think is the way to get out of the debt spiral is we need strong growth.

如果没有这一点，我们就无法解决这个问题。

Without that, we're not gonna get out of this problem.

所以，我认为，如果你相信经济增长，那么情况并没有那么糟糕。

So look, I think that if you believe in growth, then the situation is not quite as dire.

你知道，我会怎么做呢？

You know, what would I do?

好吧，如果我能挥一下魔杖，你最需要看的两个关键图表是联邦净支出占GDP的百分比。

Well, I mean if I could wave a magic wand, the two key charts you wanna look at are federal net outlays as a percent of GDP.

这是来自FRED的，对吧？

This is from Fred, right?

然后你还需要看联邦收入，也就是税收收入占GDP的百分比。

And then you wanna look at federal receipts, which is tax receipts as a percent of GDP.

你只是不希望这两条线的差距超过大约3%。

And you just don't want those lines to be more than, call it, 3% apart.

我认为这正是贝森部长所说的，即努力将联邦赤字减少到GDP的3%。

I think that's what Secretary Besson said is try to reduce federal deficits to 3% of GDP.

历史上，税收收入一直在17%左右波动，而联邦净支出则在20%左右波动。

Historically, tax receipts have bounced around 17% and the federal net outlays have bounced around 20%.

所以如果你能回到那个水平，我们的状况就会相当不错。

So if you get back to that, we'd be in pretty good shape.

我们曾经是这样的。

And we were.

在新冠疫情之前，我们的联邦净支出占GDP的比例大约为20%。

Before COVID, our federal net outlays between spending as a percent of GDP was around 20%.

但随着新冠疫情爆发，2020年这一比例飙升至30%，这既是因为大规模刺激措施的实施，也因为经济因疫情而萎缩。

But then with COVID, it bounced all the way up to 30% in 2020 because of both the function of all the stimulus, but then also the fact that the economy shrank because of COVID.

而我们始终没能重回那理想的20%水平。

And we've never quite gotten back to that magic 20% number.

目前，这一比例正趋向于23%。

Right now, it's trending around twenty three percent.

所以，我们的状况比新冠期间好得多，但仍然高出几个百分点。

So we're doing a lot better than we did under COVID, but it's still just a few percent higher.

如果由我决定，我会冻结联邦支出，直到经济成长到联邦支出占GDP比重达到20%为止。

I mean, it was up to me, I would just freeze federal spending until the economy grew to the point where federal spending as a percent of GDP is 20%.

然后，你可以让联邦支出随着经济的增长而继续增加。

And then you could let federal spending continue to grow as the economy grows.

我们这里甚至还没谈到削减支出。

We're not even talking about cuts here.

我们甚至还没谈到缩小政府规模。

We're not even talking about shrinking the size of the government.

我们只是在讨论限制支出增长的速度，直到整体经济规模能跟上它。

We're just talking about limiting the rate of growth until the overall size of the economy can catch up with it.

但正如我们所知，要让华盛顿同意这一点非常困难，因为华盛顿存在着巨大的支出压力。

But look, as we know, it's very hard to get Washington to go along with that because there is just a lot of spending pressure in Washington.

不过我要说一点，为了给政府一些肯定，联邦雇员的数量已经降至1966年以来的最低水平。

One thing I will say though, I mean, just to give some credit to the administration here, is that the level of federal employment is at the lowest level since 1966.

所以在特朗普总统的第二个任期内，联邦雇员人数从大约300万减少到略低于270万。

So during president Trump's second term here, we've gone from roughly 3,000,000 federal employees to a little bit under 2,700,000.

因此，超过30万联邦雇员被裁撤了。

So, you know, over 300,000 federal employees have been cut.

我认为这是一个良好的开端。

I think that is a good start.

我的意思是，

I mean,

百分之十已经是个不错的开始了，

seen Ten percent's a good start for

我想强调一下，让大家明白，这并不是什么伤害人的事情，

you, of I that's I think that's really important to just pause on just so people understand.

这并不是说要无情地解雇员工。

This isn't like some hurtful thing about firing people.

他们失去了工作。

They lose their jobs.

但当人们从政府 workforce 转向私营部门时，他们会变得更有生产力。

But when people move from the government workforce into the private workforce, they become productive.

他们在创造推动经济增长的产品，理论上，他们的收入也应该会增加。

They're making things that grow the economy, and, theoretically, they should also make more money.

因此，从经济角度来看，将劳动力从公共部门转移到私营部门是积极的。

So this is positive from an economic point of view to move the workforce from public to private.

此外，就我的观点而言，从历史角度看，避免社会主义螺旋式发展非常重要：如果政府雇员过多，就很难不继续雇佣更多人，这最终会变成事实上的社会主义。

It also, to my point, historically, I think it's very important to avoid the socialist spiral that if you have too many people employed by the government, it becomes impossible to not employ people by the government, and that becomes ultimately de facto socialism.

沙蒙特，你对此有什么看法？

Shammoth, your thoughts here.

显然，我们正在缩小政府规模，这是件好事。

Obviously, great thing that we're shrinking the size of the government.

这些人在进入私营部门后变得更有生产力。

Those people are becoming more productive going into the private sector.

这是个巨大的成功。

That's a big win.

我们都同意。

We all agree.

第一年就做到了10%，干得漂亮。

10%, great job in the first year.

嘿。

Hey.

接下来两三年如果能降到5%，可能会更好，但债务仍然是个问题。

Maybe 5% the next two or three years would be even better, But the debt continues to be a problem.

你担心吗？

Are you worried?

你认为这里有解决方案吗？

Do you think there's a solution here?

如果你来掌权，你会怎么做？

What would you do if you were running the show?

我认为你需要从更广阔的历史背景来看待这个问题。

I think you have to take a broader historical context to this.

债务与GDP之比重要吗？

Does debt to GDP matter?

这取决于很多因素，但总的来说我认为它并不重要。

It depends on many things, but mostly I would say it doesn't matter.

人们很容易对这一点感到焦虑。

And it's very easy for people to get agitated about that.

现在，当你印太多钱时，确实有一些重要的事情，比如美元的价值、出口的价值、进口的成本，以及如何真正保护你的收入和财富。

Now there are things that matter when you print too much money, which is the value of the dollar, the value of exports, the cost of imports, and how to actually protect your earnings and your wealth.

这是另一个问题。

That's a different question.

这是对过去三百年间全球主要经济体债务与GDP比率的历史回顾。

This is a historical look back from about three hundred years of debt to GDP of the largest functioning economies in the world.

那么，你看到了什么？

Now what do you see?

你看到的趋势是，如果你把战争因素平滑掉，战争会以一种奇特的方式先推高债务与GDP之比，但战后又会显著正面影响这一比例。

What you see is the trend where you, you know, if you smooth it out for wars, which by the way has this weird effect of first escalating the debt to GDP, but then severely impacting it in a positive way.

拿破仑战争、普法战争、第二次世界大战，这些事件在战争结束后都对降低债务与GDP之比产生了积极影响。

The Napoleonic War, the Franco Prussian War, World War two, these things all had positive effects on bringing debt to GDP once the war was over.

但从1700年至今，总体趋势是持续上升的。

But the general trend since 1700 to now is up and to the right.

关键的观察是，这些变化是同步发生的，这些问题本质上是相对的。

And the key observation is that it moves in unison, that these things are relative problems.

因此，如果整个世界都像这样同步变动，就存在一种观点：债务与GDP之比最终可能达到300%、250%甚至200%。

So if the entire world moves in unison like this, there is an argument to be made, which is that you could end up at 300, two fifty, 200% of debt to GDP.

但如果所有人都处于相同水平，实际上并没有太大变化。

But if everybody is there, nothing really changes that much.

真正的问题在于，是否有一个国家能够脱离这种同步趋势，其经济产出与其他国家有显著差异。

The real question is if one country is able to decouple itself and its economic output is so meaningfully different than everybody else's.

所以，关于债务与GDP这个问题，我的初步看法是，你必须把它们作为一个整体来看待。

So my first take on this whole debt to GDP thing is I think you have to look at it together as a group.

另外，控制债务重要吗？

Separately, is it important to contain the debt?

当然重要。

Absolutely.

但出于其他原因，比如收益、通胀，以及所有那些影响你日常生活的实际因素。

But for these other reasons, for earnings, for inflation, for all of those very practical reasons that impact your daily lived life.

关于这一点，我们了解什么？

And what do we know there?

我们知道，特朗普总统当选时肩负着重大使命，一方面要严守边境，另一方面要整治浪费、欺诈和滥用行为。

We know that president Trump was elected on a massive mandate to secure the border on one hand, but to look at waste, fraud, and abuse on the other.

在这一方面，他做了什么？

And on that side, what did he do?

他任命了世界上历史上最重要、最具生产力的私营企业家作为他的先锋。

He drafted the most important and prolific private businessman in the history of the world to be his tip of the spear.

然后发生了什么？

And what happened?

他们发现了数千亿美元的支出，但当真正需要国会采取行动来巩固这些削减时，却几乎没有做任何事——这表明，即使是最保守的美国国会都没有多少作为，那么如果未来出现民主党主导的众议院和民主党执政，情况只会变得更糟，正如弗里德伯格所说。

They identified hundreds of billions of dollars, but when it came down to it and congress had to act to solidify these cuts, they haven't done much of anything, which is a way of saying that if the most conservative congress in the history of The United States has not done much to solidify these cuts that were identified by the White House and Doge, then as Friedberg said, it'll only get worse if there's ever a democratic house and democratic control.

那么我们该做什么？

So what do we have to do?

我认为我们必须承认，如果债务与GDP持续同步上升，这场音乐盛宴不会持续太久。

I think we have to just acknowledge that if debt to GDP continually moves in unison, the music isn't up for a very long time.

这只是一个观察。

That's just an observation.

我并没有说这是对是错。

I'm not saying it's right or wrong.

这只是一个观察。

It's just the observation.

但你必须找到对冲的方法，持有真正持久的资产，因为这些经济体所依赖的底层货币，即使从相对角度看，也会剧烈波动甚至崩盘，从而侵蚀你为自己和家人创造的价值。

But you gotta find ways of hedging and owning real durable assets because the underlying currency that is used in these economies, even on a relative basis, will fluctuate wildly and just fall off of a cliff, which will mean that it will erode the value that you have created for yourself and your family.

我认为，这一切最重要的启示就是：我们可能会看到黄金等资产在未来表现得更好，因为人们会担心其以美元计价的资产的可持续性。

That, I think, is the most important takeaway from all of this, which is we probably see things like gold do much, much better over time because people will be afraid about the durability of their dollar denominated resources.

但所有这些其他计价的资产也会面临同样的情况。

But it will also be true for all these other denominated resources.

但说实话，如果让我打个赌，我认为债务与GDP之比将趋势性地攀升至2.03、4.05甚至600%，因为我认为这些国家的政府已经对支出上瘾了，除非有其他星球的物种入侵地球，否则没有任何理由停止。

But I think debt to GDP, quite honestly, if I had to be a betting man, will trend into the $2.03, $4.05, 600 on a relative basis for all countries because I just think the governments of these countries are addicted to spending, and there is no reason to stop, safe of some other planetary species invading planet Earth.

是的。

Yeah.

一场黑天鹅事件。

A black swan event.

没错。

Yes.

是的。

Yeah.

还有一个问题是，美联储的行动将如何影响过度赤字支出的能力。

There's also a question of what Fed action will do to the capacity for excess deficit spending.

因此，如果凯文·沃什真的希望收紧美联储的资产负债表，而美联储实际上是国债的首要购买者，也就是说，他们通过印钞来为政府支出融资；如果他们放慢甚至停止这一行为，那么国会和政府将不得不采取什么行动就成为一个真正的问题了。因为你知道，如果美联储停止购买国债，国债收益率就会上升。

So if Kevin Worsch really does want to tighten the Fed's balance sheet and the Fed is effectively the first in line buyer of treasuries, meaning they are printing money to fund the government spending and they slow down or actively slow down and stop doing that, then there is a real kind of question on what action will congress and the administration need to take because what what will happen, as you know, if the Fed stops buying treasuries, treasury yields will go up.

如果国债收益率上升，意味着现有债务的利息也将开始上升。

And if treasury yields go up, that means the interest on the existing debt will start to go up.

如果这种情况持续一段时间，短期收益率曲线从3.5%升到4%、4.5%再到5%，那么为这种水平的赤字支出融资将变得极其昂贵，因为利息支出会迅速攀升并吞噬所有资金。

And if that lasts for a period of time and you start going from three and a half to four to four and a half to 5% on the short end of the the yield curve, then it starts to become way too expensive to fund this level of deficit spending because the interest expense will just start to climb and eat it all up.

所以我认为，凯文·沃什的问题是，如果他真的要缩减资产负债表，这会对利率产生什么影响？

So I think, like, the Kevin Worsch question is if he really is gonna reduce the balance sheet, what's that gonna do to rates?

这最终会迫使国会和政府如何调整支出？

What's that gonna ultimately force congress force the administration to do with spending?

杰森，你怎么看？

Jason, what do you think?

你知道吗？

You know what?

我们正处于一个以消费驱动的经济中，这个国家的就业率绝对出色。

We are in a consumer driven economy, and the employment rate in this country is absolutely fantastic.

所以这里我简单展示三个图表。

So just three quick charts here.

你知道吗？即使在2022年从1200万减少到700万之后，我们仍然有这么多职位空缺。

You know, this is the number of job openings we still have even after we burned off in 2022 from 12,000,000 to 7,000,000 jobs.

我们仍然有大量的工作机会。

We still have a ton of jobs available.

如果你看一下我们的失业率，它仍然处于我们这一代人历史上的最低水平。

Then if you look at our unemployment rate, it's still at historical lows for our lifetime.

如果你出生于1970年，现在的状况已经是最好的了。

If you were born in 1970, this is as good as it gets.

目前是4.456。

4.456 is what it's been.

它只是轻微上升，但仍然是我们这一代人中最低的。

It's ticking up modestly, but still lowest of our lifetimes.

最后是就业参与率，即社会中正在工作且有能力工作的人数。

And then finally, employment participation rate, number of people in our society who are working and able to work.

它在克林顿时代曾达到约68%，而现在的水平仍然偏低。

It peaked at 68% or so during the Clinton years, and this is still low.

62%，我们仍然有大量人本可以参与就业。

62%, we still have people who could be participating.

所以，如果更多人参与进来并接受这些工作，所有这些问题都会得到解决。

So all of these problems will be solved if more people were to participate and take those jobs.

他们为什么不去做这些工作呢？

Why don't they take those jobs?

有时是地域不匹配。

Sometimes it's a geographic mismatch.

有时是技能不匹配，但很多时候，是因为这些工作的薪酬不够高。

Sometimes it is a skills mismatch, but very often, it is the jobs are not paying enough.

所以，如果你想给特朗普点赞，通过关闭边境来减少从事这些工作的人数，那么企业就不得不提高最低工资。

So if you wanna give Trump his flowers by closing the border, you've reduced the number of people taking the jobs off the books, and then you have the businesses are gonna have to raise their minimum wage.

他们必须提高薪资待遇，这可能会吸引目前在一旁观望的约7%的人加入就业市场。

They're gonna have to raise their offering wage, which then might get this 7% or so that are sitting on the sidelines to take their jobs.

这个预测真疯狂。

Crazy prediction.

如果特朗普出现，我一点也不惊讶，他显然是个民粹主义者，我前几天发过一条推文，获得了将近五十万次浏览，或者说是四十万次。

I wouldn't be surprised if we see Trump, is obviously a populist, and I tweeted about this the other day, got almost a half million views or 400,000 views.

如果特朗普决定要提高最低工资呢？

What if Trump decides he's gonna raise the minimum wage?

我不是说支持或反对，但每小时7美元实在太低了。

Not saying I endorse this or not, but it's incredibly low at $7 an hour.

显然，在不同的城市和州，最低工资是15到20美元。

Obviously, in different cities and states, it's 15 to 20.

但如果特朗普说，未来三年每年增加一美元或两美元呢？

But what if Trump said we're gonna add a dollar to it or $2 to it over each year of the next three?

这会非常受欢迎，能让一些持观望态度的人加入进来，或许去从事这些工作。

This would be incredibly popular, and it would get some of those people off the sidelines and maybe take these jobs.

所以这只是个疯狂的预测，但我认为这是有可能的。

So just a crazy prediction there, but I think it's a possibility.

而且我认为，以目前的情况来看，他们在中期选举中肯定会输。

And I think they're gonna lose the midterms as it stands right now, it looks like.

我认为这是普遍的看法。

I think that's the consensus opinion.

但他们一直没能解决这种可负担性问题。

And they haven't been able to do something with this affordability.

我认为大多数美国人会说，如果提高最低工资，这将提高可负担性。

Well, I think most Americans would say if you raise the minimum wage, that that would increase affordability.

你可以说这会导致通货膨胀，但我认为大多数美国人还是会相信提高最低工资的好处。

You can make the counterargument it's gonna just be inflationary, but I think most Americans are gonna believe in that.

所以，如果你看到特朗普在那里采取行动，我不会感到惊讶，因为他确实时不时会采取这类民粹主义举措。

So I wouldn't be surprised if you saw Trump take action there because he does take populist actions like this from time to time.

你在经济学文献中如何看待提高最低工资的影响？

You actually in the economic literature on what raising the minimum wage does?

是的。

Yes.

它可能推高通货膨胀，也可能降低企业的盈利能力。

It can increase inflation, and it can lower the it can raise inflation, and it can lower profitability of businesses.

是的

Yeah.

把业务转移到海外。

And move stuff offshore.

是的

Yeah.

不。

No.

它的作用是使雇佣劳动价值低于最低工资的人成为非法行为。

What it does is it makes it illegal to hire someone whose labor is worth less than the minimum wage.

因此，研究表明它在经济的这些领域造成了更高的失业率。

And so it is shown to create higher unemployment in those segments of the economy.

这是经济学家的核心发现之一。

It's like one of those core findings of economists.

所以，确实有些人会因最低工资提高而受益，但也会有其他人因此失去工作。

So yeah, it's true that some people will be a beneficiary of getting a higher minimum wage, but then there'll be other people who just lose their jobs.

这还会激励雇主将更多劳动力转向自动化。

And it creates an incentive for those employers to shift more labor towards automation.

所以，如果你本来就担心这些人会因自动化而失业，这就是一个弊端。

So if you're already worried about those people losing their jobs to automation, that's a downside.

因此，如果最低工资真的是万能药，能提高每个人的生计水平而没有任何负面影响，那为什么不让最低工资达到每小时100美元呢？

So anyway, if the minimum wage were a panacea and it just increased everyone's living standards without having downsides, why wouldn't you make the minimum wage a $100 an hour?

你知道，为什么大家不无限地不断提高最低工资呢？

You know, why wouldn't you know, everyone would just keep raising it infinitely.

显然，这行不通，因为如果你把最低工资定得太高，也就是高于某人劳动的价值，他们就会失业。

Obviously, it doesn't work because if you raise the minimum wage too much, which is to say more than the value of someone's labor, then they just get unemployed.

看看不同城市或澳大利亚等国家的情况，它们的最低工资更高，人们也更幸福。

Looking at what happened in the different cities or in Australia or other countries, they have a much higher minimum wage, and they have much more happiness.

企业和物价上涨了大约20%，在10%到20%之间。

Businesses and prices go up about 20%, 10 to 20%.

所以在澳大利亚，如果你去餐厅，或者去斯堪的纳维亚国家，东西可能贵10%到20%，但人口更幸福。

So in Australia, if you go to a restaurant or if you go to a Scandinavian country, things might cost 10%, 20% more, but you have a happier population.

而且，是的，这可能会导致更多的自动化。

And, yes, it could lead to more, know, automation.

我们淘汰了收银员，因为在纽约支付每小时15到20美元的收银员工资太贵了。

We got rid of cashiers because it became too expensive in New York to pay 15 to $20 for a cashier.

当然。

Sure.

但我们现在最低工资非常低，失业率也很低，企业显然能负担得起每小时多付一两美元。

But we have really low minimum we have very low unemployment now, and the businesses can clearly afford to pay an extra buck an hour or $2 an hour.

所以，理论上的学术观点你是对的，我完全理解。

So there's the theoretical academic argument, which you are correct on, and I understand it fully well.

而现实情况是，西雅图、旧金山、纽约、洛杉矶、澳大利亚以及其他地方的最低工资都高得多。

And then there's the reality on the field, which is Seattle, San Francisco, New York, Los Angeles, Australia, other places have a much higher minimum wage.

那里的民众幸福感更高。

They have higher happiness in the population.

实际上，我认为这不会有任何影响，因为我觉得现在的最低工资被人为压得太低了。

I don't actually think it will have any impact because I think it's artificially low.

但这只是一个人的观点。

But that's just one man's opinion.

我认为这会改变美国的格局。

I think it would change the game here in America.

而且我认为这实际上能回应你对社会主义的担忧，弗里德伯格。

And I think it would actually do something to your concern, Friedberg, about socialism.

我认为，如果人们觉得有一个保障机制来应对这种极低的劳动力成本，他们可能会非常兴奋，因为能拿到更高时薪的工作，这就像全民医疗那样，能缓解一些压力。

I think that if people felt that there was a, you know, kind of a backstop against this low, low cost of labor, it might actually make people pretty stoked, you know, that they could get a higher paying hourly job and it might take some of that edge off in the same way Universal Healthcare might do that.

但再说一遍，这只是一个人的观点。

But, again, just one man's opinion.

关于所有这些经济数据，我觉得我们忽略了关键点，那就是我们正处在经济繁荣的开端。

I gotta say on all this economic data that I I think we're kinda missing the lead here, which is we are at the beginning of an economic boom.

去年第三季度和第四季度的GDP增长率我们都看到了，第三季度超过4%，第四季度超过5%。

Again, we saw it in the GDP growth rates in q three and q four last year, over 4% q three, over 5% q four.

我们刚刚公布的1月就业报告显示，经济新增了17.2万个私营部门工作岗位。

We just had a January job report where the economy added 172,000 new private sector jobs.

这远远超过了预期的7万人左右。

This blew away the expectation, which was around 70,000.

与此同时，政府削减了4.2万个岗位。

At the same time, the government shed 42,000 jobs.

净效果是将失业率降至4.3%。

The net of this was to bring the unemployment rate down to 4.3%.

所以我记得几个月前，J Cal，你曾对失业率小幅上升表示担忧。

So I remember a few months ago, J Cal, you were bringing your hands about the fact that the unemployment rate had ticked up.

但现在它又回落了。

Well, now it's back down.

而且你正看到大量就业岗位在建筑业中创造，尤其是非住宅建筑领域。

And you're seeing a lot of jobs being created in construction, especially nonresidential construction.

这与数据中心和正在兴起的人工智能热潮有关。

Has to do with the data centers, the AI boom that's going on.

一月份新增了3.3万个建筑行业岗位。

33,000 new construction jobs in January.

在特朗普总统的第二任期内，私人部门创造了61.5万个新就业岗位，而正如我们之前讨论的，政府岗位削减了超过30万个，这提高了经济的生产率，并如贝森部长所说，实现了经济的再私有化。

You've seen in president Trump's second term, you've had 615,000 new private sector jobs have been created while, again, like we talked about, over 300,000 government jobs have been cut, which increases the productivity of the economy, and it does what secretary Besson says, is reprivatize the economy.

所以我认为整体的经济形势非常好。

So I just think that the overall economic news is really good.

再次强调，我们正经历一场人工智能热潮。

Again, we have this AI boom going on.

有一张新图表显示，仅四大超大规模云服务商今年预计的资本支出就达到6000亿美元。

There's a new chart showing that the CapEx for this year that's expected just from the four leading hyperscalers is $600,000,000,000.

仅来自四家公司。

Just from four companies.

这本身就为GDP增长提供了约2%的助力。

That's a roughly 2% tailwind to GDP growth right there.

这还只是资本支出部分。

That is just the capex.

这还不包括从这些基础设施在软件、应用和生产力方面可能带来的全部投资回报。

That doesn't include all the ROI that you might get from that infrastructure on the software side, on the application side, the productivity side.

所以我们正经历一场繁荣，但我感觉每个人都在对这件事持消极看法。

So we have a boom going on, and I feel like everyone's kinda black pilling about this.

你知道，他们只关注这个

You know, they're focusing on this

我同意。

I agree.

CBO报告中预测的增长率过于低得不切实际。

CBO report that has unrealistically low growth rates.

我们要印出6%的增长。

We're gonna print 6%.

对。

Right.

或者他们一直在刷埃普斯坦之类的负面新闻。

Or they're doomscrolling about Epstein or what have you.

我只是觉得，当我们回望这个时代时，它可能会有点像九十年代末。

And I just think when we look back on this period, it could end up being a little bit like the late nineties.

还记得我们回望九十年代末的时候吗？

Remember when we had you know, we look back on the late nineties.

我们当时会说，哇。

We're like, wow.

那时有着惊人的经济增长。

Had, like, phenomenal economic growth.

黄金时代。

Golden age.

是的。

Yeah.

黄金时代，劳动力参与率。

Golden age, economic Labor participation.

那个

The

还有互联网。

Internet too.

但如果你记得那个时期的政治氛围，当时人们谈论的全是克林顿是否从莱温斯基那里得到了口交。

But if you remember what politics were like at that time period, all anyone talked about was whether Bill Clinton got a blowjob from Lewinsky.

所以我的观点是，再次强调，我不确定我们是否关注了正确的事情。

So my point is just, again, I am not sure we're focused on the right things.

我怀疑将来我们会把这段时期看作一个新时代的开端。

I suspect we'll look back on this time period as the beginning of a new golden age.

我同意。

I agree.

我觉得你说得对。

I think you're correct.

至于那些焦虑的评论，只要某个数据达到15%，我就会特别关注。

And just in terms of the hand wringing comment, anytime a a statistic is 15%, I highlight it.

我不会用‘焦虑’这个词。

I wouldn't use hand wringing.

我只会说，我们通常会关注这一点。

I would just say we generally look at that.

当我们从特朗普继承时的4.1上升到4.5时。

When we went from 4.1, which is where Trump inherited it, went up to 4.5.

一年内增长了约10%。

It's about a 10% increase in one year.

如果这一趋势持续下去，那将值得注意。

If that trend were to continue, that would be notable.

但正如你所指出的，它已经下降了，我认为这是因为南部边境已经关闭。

But to your point, it's gone down, and that is because the border I believe the Southern border is closed.

正如你所提到的，经济中有很多好消息，所以人们正在招聘。

And as you're pointing out, we've got a lot of good news in the economy, so people are hiring.

因此，我们的经济状况非常好。

So and so we we are in really good economic shape.

我认为这一点很难否认。

I would say it's hard to deny that.

是的。

Yeah.

所有新增就业机会也都惠及了本土美国人。

All the job creation has been enjoyed by native born Americans as well.

所有失业的都是非本土美国人，这相当引人注目。

All the job loss has been on non native born Americans, which is pretty remarkable.

因此，我认为这也将使更多美国人受益。

So that, I think, is also going to accrue to the benefit of of more Americans.

顺便提一下，关于失业率，由于10月1日的买断计划，十月略有上升。

By the way, just on the unemployment thing, there was a slight tick up in October because of the October 1 buyouts.

记得吗？多吉推出了这个买断计划？

Remember, Doge created the the buyout program?

是九月还是十月？

September or October?

他们是什么时候

When did they

是在10月1日截止的。

hit It was October 1 was the deadline for that.

因此，失业率因这一情况略有上升。

And so we had a tick up in unemployment related to that.

但请记住，所有这些都属于自愿买断。

But remember, all of those were voluntary buyouts.

他们都选择了Doge方案。

They all chose the Doge option.

这正是导致失业率上升的原因。

That's what created the tick up in unemployment.

但再次强调，我认为这是一次良好且自愿的上升。

But again, it was all, I think, a good and voluntary tick up.

现在，失业率已经下降。

And now the unemployment rate has ticked down.

所以，目前的就业创造势头强劲。

So again, the job creation right now is strong.

再具体一点，非法移民在美国从事最多的两个行业，大多数人并不知道：第一是建筑行业。

And to just put a finer point on it, the top two areas where illegal aliens are working in The United States, most people don't know this, Construction, number one.

第二个是休闲和酒店业。

And the second one is leisure and hospitality.

所以有两百五十万人在这两个行业工作，这就是为什么我说，如果你想看到更多美国人就业、工资上涨，你就去这些企业看看，你会发现它们雇用了非法移民——这简直太容易了，你只要去建筑工地，拍下所有非法工作的人员照片，这正是以前ICE机构的做法。

So you got two and a half million people working in those two categories, which is why I said if you want to see more Americans take jobs and you wanna see wages go up, if you went to those businesses and you find those businesses for hiring illegal aliens, which is the easiest thing in the world to do, you just show up at a construction site, you take pictures of everybody who is working illegally, which is what they used to do in the ICE agency.

他们过去会监控建筑工地，然后找到那些雇用非法劳工的建筑公司，迫使他们雇佣美国人，否则这些公司就会面临严重后果。

They would then do, you know, surveillance of construction sites, and then they would go and find the construction person, and then they had to hire Americans, or that construction company would get in serious trouble.

在过去二十年里，针对建筑工地的罚款已达数百万美元，这会促使企业提高建筑工人的工资，从而进一步降低失业率，提高劳动参与率。

There's been multimillion dollar fines done over the last twenty years, specifically on construction sites, and that would drive more people to raise the wages of construction workers, which would even lower unemployment more and increase labor participation.

这才是真正的关键所在。

That's where the big win is.

去建筑工地。

Go to construction sites.

去酒店。

Go to hotels.

你是想让ICE随机突击检查雇主和建筑工地吗？

You want ICE to randomly raid employers, construction sites.

用了‘突击检查’这个词。

Used the term raid.

突击检查？不是。

Raid is no.

移民与海关执法局进行监控。

ICE surveilled.

只是检查每个人的证件。

Just check everyone's papers.

你希望移民与海关执法局到处出现吗？

You want ICE showing up everywhere?

你想让移民与海关执法局搞出个警察国家来吗？

You want to ICE You those police state.

第一，他们已经在这么做了，各位。

Number one, they're doing this already, gentlemen.

这完全在他们的职权范围内。

This is well within their purview.

查一下法律依据。

Look up the legal.

他们已经这样做了三十年了。

They have been doing this for thirty years.

这实际上是他们在以混乱方式突袭城市之前所使用的技术。

This is actually the technique they used before raiding cities in a chaotic way.

他们去了。

They went.

他们进行了监视，这是他们的权利。

They surveilled, which is their right to do.

他们有权利这样做。

They have the right to do that.

我没说突袭。

I didn't say raid.

我说的是监视。

I said surveil.

这是一种和平、安静的做法，然后他们找到商家。

That is a peaceful, quiet thing to do, and then they find business owners.

这些商家才是造成这个问题的人。

The business owners are the people who are causing this problem.

如果建筑行业没有每小时20.30美元、40美元的现金工资且不缴税的工作，那些非法越境的移民就不会来这里。

If there was not a job available in construction for $20.30, $40 an hour off the books and not paying taxes, those immigrants who are crossing illegally would not be here.

如果他们在酒店或洗碗工岗位上找不到每小时30美元的现金工作，他们就不会来。

If they couldn't get a $30 an hour off the book job working at a hotel or as a dishwasher, they would not come.

而雇主们必须停止雇佣他们。

And the blinces need to stop hiring them.

好的。

Okay.

监控非常简单。

Surveillance is very simple.

是的，没错。

What yeah.

保释的关键。

The key for bail.

解释一下摄像头。

Explain a camera.

那么等待是什么？

So what is wait.

他们怎么用摄像头判断一个人是否非法？

How do they how do they, with a camera, figure out if someone's illegal?

摄像头在判断什么？

What's the camera figuring out?

好的。

Okay.

所以，你们看，这非常简单。

Like So you guys it's very simple.

我，我得先读一下这个。

I and I'll Oh, you have to read this in first.

不。

No.

不。

No.

那么你就能知道谁是公民了。

And so then you'll know who's the citizen

不。

No.

不。

No.

我想听听，如果你在保释的话，你是怎么想的。

I wanna hear I hear wanna if you are bailing.

我会告诉你们，你们三个人有多无知、多有偏见。

Answer in how misinformed the three of you are and biased, I will tell you.

全都无知且有偏见。

All misinformed and biased.

这才是公平的做法，让人弄清楚他们是否非法。

This is what's fair about someone to figure out they're illegal.

非常简单。

Super simple.

你去建筑工地。

You go to the construction site.

每天早上所有人都要签到。

Everybody checks in there in morning.

他们有一辆卡车。

They have a truck.

几十年来一直都是这样做的，各位。

This has been done for decades, gentlemen.

他们给每个人拍照。

They take pictures of everybody.

然后在经过数周的监视后，沙玛，他们在一天结束时行动，这事儿他们早就做过多次了。

Then they go in at the end of the day after surveilling for weeks, Shama, and it's they have done this already.

这些都是事实。

This is all facts.

他们已经多次前往建筑工地进行调查。

They've had multiple cases where they go to the construction site.

他们拍摄照片。

They take pictures.

他们拍摄视频。

They take a video.

然后他们去找雇主，要求出示这些人的工资单。

Then they go to the business owner and say, show us these people's pay stubs.

雇主会说：我没有这些人的工资单。

And the business owner goes, I don't have pay stubs for these people.

他们就说：好的。

And they say, okay.

这是他们每天工作八小时的视频。

Here's a video of them working for eight hours a day.

他们的工资单在哪里？

Where's their pay stub?

给我们看看他们的纳税记录。

Show us their taxes.

这些企业正在私下支付员工报酬。

The businesses are paying people off the books.

这是逃税行为。

That is tax evasion.

然后他们被处以数百万美元的罚款。

And then they got multimillion dollar fines.

这里有一个非常重要的案例。

Here's a very important case.

这是2017年的事情。

This is from back in 2017.

司法部和移民与海关执法局针对一个雇佣非法移民的团伙采取了行动。

The justice department and ICE went after a group which was hiring illegal aliens.

这是移民案件中有史以来最大的一笔罚款。

This is the largest payment ever in an immigration case.

追回了9500万美元，其中8000万美元为刑事没收，1500万美元为民事罚款。

95,000,000 recovered, 80,000,000 criminal forfeiture, 15,000,000 in civil payments.

根据美国司法部2017年的说法，这是有史以来针对移民案件开出的最大罚单。

That represented, according to our justice department in 2017, the largest ever levied immigration case.

我们几乎可以通过基本的监控、基础的侦探工作，要求这些企业出示雇员的工资单来解决所有移民问题，除了可能涉及的犯罪团伙，而ICE一直在这么做。

We can solve almost all of the immigration issues with the exception of maybe criminal gangs just by doing basic surveillance, basic, you know, detective work, asking these businesses to show the pay stubs of the people working for them, and ICE has been doing this.

他们已经一直在这样做了。

They've already been doing this.

你的建议是让全美国的每一家公司都这么做吗？

Your suggestion is to do this for every company in America?

好吧。

Okay.

所以，你这是在夸大其词，而且你并不了解企业的实际情况。

So, again, you're being hyperbolic, and you're not in you're not in company's faith.

你选吗？

Do you choose?

我一开始就说过了。

I said I said this at the top.

你挑出非法移民的最大雇主。

You pick the number one employer of illegal aliens.

有250万人在建筑行业工作。

2,500,000 people working in construction.

你从最大的建筑工地开始，然后逆向排查。

You start with the largest construction sites, and then you work backwards.

然后你从最大的餐饮和酒店连锁企业开始

Then you start with the largest restaurant and hotel chains

再逆向排查。

and work backwards.

如果你这么做，你会说他不够仁慈。

Were doing this, you'd say he's not compassionate enough.