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大家好。
Hey, everybody.
我是弗里德伯格。
Friedberg here.
你们即将听到的是我们9月9日在洛杉矶举办的“All In峰会”录音中的讨论内容。
What you're about to hear is a discussion from our All In Summit Record in LA on September 9.
我们每周会发布一些最精彩的对话。
We're going to publish some of the best conversations once a week.
如果你想观看所有演讲，请订阅我们的YouTube频道：youtube.com/@allin，并在X上关注我们@theallinpod。
If you wanna see all the talks, subscribe to our YouTube channel at youtube.com/@allin and follow us on x @theallinpod.
嘿，各位。
Hey, guys.
我拿一下我的东西。
I'm grab my stuff.
我要去了，好的。
I'm gonna Yep.
我打算拿
I'm gonna take
这个。
this.
好的。
Alright.
谢谢你抽出时间。
Thanks for taking the time.
怎么
How
兄弟，你最近怎么样？
how are you doing, brother?
你忙吗？
You keeping busy?
是的。
Yeah.
我的意思是，很少有慢节奏的一周。
I mean, it's rarely a slow week.
我的意思是，在世界上也是如此。
I mean, in the world as well.
是的。
Yeah.
确实如此。
Does.
我的意思是，随便哪一周，事情都显得越来越疯狂。
I mean, any given week, I mean, it just seems like the things get nuttier.
这绝对是一个模拟。
It it's definitely a simulation.
到目前为止，我们已经达成共识了。
We've agreed on this at this point.
我的意思是，如果我们真的身处某个外星人的奈飞剧集里，我觉得收视率肯定很高。
I mean, like well, if look, if if we are in some alien Netflix series, I think the ratings are high.
是的。
Yes.
收视率很高。
Ratings are high.
好的。
Okay.
言论自由的战争进行得怎么样了？
How are the the freedom of speech wars going?
你已经打了两年的仗了。
This is a you've been you've been at war for two years now.
是的。
Yes.
言论自由的代价不便宜，对吧？
The price of freedom of speech is not cheap, is it?
我觉得大概是440亿美元左右。
I think it's like 44,000,000,000, something like that.
只是
Just
整数。
Round numbers.
大概十亿左右。
Give or give or take a billion.
是的。
Yeah.
整数。
Round numbers.
是的。
Yeah.
是的。
Yeah.
这简直太疯狂了。
It's it's it's pretty nutty.
世界上有一种奇怪的潮流，正在压制奎尔的言论自由。
There there there is like this weird movement to Quell's free speech kind of around the world.
这确实是我们应该非常担忧的事情。
And and that's something we should be very concerned about.
你得想想，为什么第一修正案会被列为最高优先级？
You know, you have to ask like, why was the first amendment like a high priority?
你知道，它可是排在第一位的。
You know, it's like number one.
第一位。
Number
第一位。
one.
因为人们来自这样的国家：在那里，如果你自由发言，就会被监禁或处死。
It's because people came from countries where if you spoke freely, you would be imprisoned or killed.
他们心想：我们可不希望在这里也这样。
And they were like, well, we would like to not have that here.
因为那太可怕了。
Because that was terrible.
而且实际上，现在世界上很多地方，如果你批评政府，就会被监禁或杀害。
And and actually, know, there's a lot of places in the world right now if you if you're critical of the government, you get imprisoned or killed.
对。
Right.
是的。
Yeah.
我们不希望那样的事情发生。
We'd like to not have that.
你担心吗？
Are you concerned?
对此。
To that.
我的意思是，
I mean,
我怀疑这个听众群体对这个信息是持开放态度的。
I suspect this is a receptive audience to that message.
你知道，我们一直以为西方是例外，我们知道世界上有一些专制的地方，但我们认为在西方，我们拥有言论自由。
You know, I I think we always thought that the West was the exception to that, that we knew there were authoritarian places around the world, but we thought that in the West we'd have freedom of speech.
而正如你所说，我们看到这似乎是一种全球性的趋势。
And we've seen, like you said, it seems like a global movement.
在英国，青少年因为发布表情包而被关进监狱。
In Britain, you've got teenagers being put in prison for memes
这就像你发一个Facebook帖子就被反对。
It's opposing like you like to you like to Facebook post.
直接把他们扔进监狱。
Throw them in the prison.
是的。
Yeah.
人们真的会因为社交媒体上一些晦涩的评论而被关进监狱。
It's People have got an actual, you know, prison for for like like obscure comments on social media.
连恶搞发帖都还没到呢。
Not even shit posting yet.
连这都还没有。
Like not even
是的。
Yeah.
这太疯狂了。
It's crazy.
我觉得这像是个问题
I love It's like a problem
最近被扔进监狱了。
that's thrown in prison recently.
我觉得，
I'm like,
这太过分了
that is too
对此感到震惊。
shook about that.
我当时想，到底是什么样的严重罪行，对吧。
I was like, what is the massive crime that Right.
法国的帕维尔，当然还有巴西的法官伏地魔。
Pavel in France and then of course we got Brazil with judge Voldemort.
那个似乎对你影响最大。
That one seems like the one that impacts you the most.
你能说说最新的情况吗？
Can you what's the latest on that?
嗯，我想我们正在努力弄清楚，巴西有没有什么合理的解决方案？
Well, we I guess we are trying to figure out is there some reasonable solution in Brazil?
我的意思是，我想确保这个问题的表述是正确的。
The, you know, the concern I mean, I wanted to just make sure that this is framed correctly.
抛开搞笑的梗不说，担忧的本质在于，至少在X公司，我们感觉被要求做些违反巴西法律的事情。
Know, funny memes aside, the nature of the concern was that, at least at at X Corp, we had the perception that we were being asked to do things that violated Brazilian law.
所以，显然，作为一家美国公司，我们不能将美国的法律和价值观强加给其他国家——如果我们这么做，根本走不了多远。
So, obviously, we cannot, as an American company, impose American laws and values on on other countries that, know, we wouldn't get very far if we did that.
但我们确实认为，如果一个国家的法律是某种特定情况，而我们被要求去做我们认为是违法的事，并且还要对此保持沉默，那显然不行。
But but we do, you know, think that if if a country's law laws are a particular way and we're being asked to what we we think think we're being asked to break them, then and and be silent about it, then obviously that is no good.
是的。
Mhmm.
所以我想说清楚一点。
So so I just wanna be clear.
这是因为，有时这看起来像是埃隆只是在扮演一个疯狂的亿万富翁，向其他国家提出荒谬的要求。
It's because this sometimes comes across as Elon's trying to just be a crazy whatever billionaire and demand outrageous things from other countries.
而且，你知道，虽然确实如此，
And, you know, while that is true,
此外，
In addition,
还有其他一些我认为是合理的观点，比如我们公司在X Corp做的每一件事，都必须能在光天化日之下解释清楚，不能觉得那是不光彩的，或者我们做了错事，你知道的。
there are other things that that I think are, you know, valid which is like we we we obviously can't You know, I think any given thing that we do at x corp, we've gotta be able to explain in light of day and and not feel that it was dishonorable or, you know, we we we did the wrong thing, you know.
所以，我们并不是说那个，那正是担忧的本质所在。
So we don't we that that that was the that that's the nature of the concern.
所以我们实际上正在与巴西的司法部门进行讨论，试图把这件事弄清楚。
So we actually are in sort of discussions with the, you know, judicial authorities in in Brazil to try to, you know, run this to ground.
到底发生了什么？
Like, what what's actually going on?
如果我们被要求违反巴西法律，那显然不应该让巴西司法系统感到安心。
Like, if if we're being asked to break the law, Brazilian law, then that's that that obviously should not be should should not sit well with the Brazilian judiciary.
如果我们没有违反法律，而是我们理解错了，我们也希望了解自己错在哪里。
And if we're not and we're mistaken, we'd like to understand how we are mistaken.
我认为这是一个相当合理的态度。
I think that's a that's a pretty reasonable position.
作为你的朋友，我有点担心，你去这些国家后，有一天我醒来会听说你被逮捕了，然后我得去保释你之类的事情。
I'm a bit concerned as your friend that you're going to go to one of these countries, and I'm gonna wake up one day and you're gonna get arrested and, like, I'm gonna have to go bail you out or something.
这感觉非常紧迫。
Like, this is feels very acute.
是的。
Like Yes.
我的意思是，这已经不是开玩笑的事了。
I mean, it's not a joke now.
他们真的在说，你知道的，不只是拜登说我们要调查那个人。
Like, they're literally saying, like, you know, it's not just Biden saying, like, we have to look into that guy.
现在这已经变得非常真实了。
Now it's become quite literal.
这个，我不知道。
Like, this I don't know.
那个写了一篇关于……是《卫报》的文章的人是谁？
Who is the guy who just wrote the was it the Guardian piece about, like,
哦，过去三周内已经发表了三篇文章。
Oh, There have been three articles in, I think, in the past three weeks.
罗伯特·里奇。
Robert Reich.
但不只是他一个人。
But it wasn't just him.
就像是，是的。
Was like Yeah.
三篇不同的文章。
Three different articles.
三篇不同的文章。
Three different articles.
这不就是一种趋势吗？
Doesn't that's a trend.
要求把我关进监狱，对吧。
The calling for me to be imprisoned Right.
在《卫报》上，你知道的。
In in the Guardian, you know.
《卫报》什么？
Guardian of what?
他们到底在保护什么？
What are they protecting exactly?
是的。
Yeah.
卫报，我不知道。
Guardian of I don't know.
威权主义？
Authoritarianism?
对。
Yeah.
卫报的
Guardian of
是的。
yeah.
审查制度？
Censorship?
审查制度。
Censorship.
但我的意思是，前提是你购买了这个东西——这个在线论坛、这个交流平台，然后你允许人们用它来表达自己。
But I mean, but the premise here is that you bought this thing, this online forum, this communication platform, and you're allowing people to use it to express themselves.
因此，你必须被监禁。
Therefore, you have to be jailed.
我不理解这里的逻辑。
I don't understand the logic here.
没错。
Right.
你觉得他们现在真正害怕的是什么？
There's what do you think they're actually afraid of at this point?
这里的动机是什么？
What's the motivation here?
我的意思是，我认为
I I mean, I think
如果有人试图向世界灌输一个虚假的前提，而这个前提又可以通过公开对话被驳斥，那么他们就会反对针对这一前提的公开对话，因为他们希望自己的虚假前提能够占上风。
the the if somebody's if somebody's sort of trying to push a false premise on the world then and then that that and that premise can be undermined with public dialogue, then they will be opposed to public dialogue on that premise because they wish their false premise to prevail.
对。
Right.
所以，我认为，问题在于，如果他们不喜欢真相，我们就想压制它。
So that's, I think, you know, the the the issue there is if they don't like the truth, you know, then we wanna suppress it.
因此，我们现在试图通过X公司来区分这一点，而不是我儿子也叫X。
So now the, you know, the the sort of what what we're trying to do with x corp is distinguish that from my son who's also called x.
是的。
Yes.
对。
Right.
你有为人父母的目标
You have you have parental goals
基本上所有东西都叫X。
Everything's just called x basically.
这是一个非常困难的区分问题。
It's a very difficult disambiguation.
这个
The
是的。
Yeah.
所有东西都叫x。
It's x everything.
所以我们试图做的只是遵守各国的法律。
So what we're we're what we're trying do is simply adhere to the, you know, the the laws in a in a country.
因此，如果某事在美国非法，或在欧洲、巴西或任何其他地方非法，我们就会将其删除或暂停账户，因为我们并不是来制定法律的。
So so if something is illegal in The United States or if it's illegal in, you know, Europe or Brazil or or wherever it might be, then then we will take it down or we'll suspend the account because we're we're not, you know, there to make the laws.
但如果言论并不违法，那我们又在做什么呢？
We But but but if speech is not illegal, then then what are we doing?
好的。
Okay.
现在我们把自己当作一个传感器介入其中。
Now we're injecting ourselves in as as a sensor.
这到哪里才算结束？
And and where does it stop?
谁来决定？
And who decides?
那么这条道路会导向哪里？
So and where where does that path lead?
我认为这会导向一个糟糕的境地。
I think it leads to a bad place.
所以，如果一个国家的人民希望法律不同，他们就应该改变法律。
So if if the people in a country want the laws to be different, they should make the laws different.
但除此之外，我们会遵守每个司法管辖区的法律。
But otherwise, we're gonna obey the law in each jurisdiction.
对。
Right.
而且这些欧洲国家的一些
And some of these European
就是这样。
That's that's it.
并没有更复杂。
It's it's not more complicated.
我们并不是想无视法律。
We're not we're not trying to flout the law.
我要明确一下，我们是试图遵守法律的。
I'm gonna be clear about We're we're we're we're trying to adhere to the law.
如果法律发生变化，我们也会随之改变。
And if laws change, we will change.
如果法律没有变化，我们也不会改变。
And if if the laws don't change, we we won't.
我们只是单纯地试图遵守法律。
We're just literally trying to adhere to the law.
这非常直接明了。
It's pretty pretty straightforward.
一些欧洲国家是直接明了的。
Are some European straightforward.
而且而且
And and
如果因为某些原因我们没有遵守法律，他们就可以提起诉讼。
and and some reason, things we're not adhering to law, well, they can file a lawsuit.
没错。
Bingo.
也非常直接明了。
Also very straightforward.
是的。
Yes.
我的意思是，有一些欧洲国家不希望人们宣传纳粹宣传。
I mean, there are European countries that don't want people to promote Nazi propaganda.
是的。
Yes.
他们对此很敏感。
They have some sensitivity to it.
这是非法的。
Well, it's is illegal.
在这些国家，这是非法的。
And It is illegal in those countries.
在这些国家，如果有人发布这种内容，你就得把它删掉。
And in those countries, if somebody puts that up, you take it down.
对。
Yes.
好。
Yeah.
但他们通常会提交申请，要求删除
But they typically file something and say, take
把这个删了。
this down.
不。
No.
在某些情况下，这明显是违法的。
In some cases, it is just obviously illegal.
比如，如果某事毫无疑问是违法的，我们根本不需要提起诉讼，直接看法律条文就行了。
Like, you don't need to file a lawsuit for, you know, if something is just unequivocally illegal, we can literally read read the law.
这违反了法律。
This violates the law.
你知道，任何人都能看出来。
You know, anyone can anyone can see that.
就像，你知道，是的。
Like, you know Yeah.
你不需要，比如，如果有人在偷东西，你不需要去查法律条文。
You don't need like, if if somebody is stealing, you don't need let me check the law on that.
是的
Yeah.
好的
Okay.
哦，不
Oh, no.
他们在偷东西
They're they're stealing stuff.
我们来谈谈这个
Let's talk about it.
今天早上我们请来了JD·万斯
So we had we had JD Vance here this morning.
他表现得很好
He did a great job.
你知道，有一个说法是，你、波比、特朗普和JD就像复仇者联盟一样
And, you know, one of the things is there's this image on acts of, like, basically, like, you, Bobby, Trump, JD are like the Avengers, I guess.
还有一个梗，是你站在一张写着 'd o g e' 的桌子前面。
And then there's another meme where you're in front of a desk where it says d o g e.
是的。
Yeah.
是的。
Yeah.
政府部门效率部。
The Department of Governmental Efficiency.
对。
Yes.
对。
Yes.
我推动了这个想法。
I pushed that one.
给我们讲讲吧。
Tell us about it.
我制作了
I made
我用Grock图像生成器制作的。
I made it using Grock, the Grock image image generator.
我发布了它。
I posted it.
我把它们放到了我的个人资料上。
Us about I put it to my profile.
为了提高效率。
See for efficiency.
你到底是怎么做到的？
How how do you even do it?
嗯，我的意思是，我
Well, I I mean, I I
觉得这很难做到。
think with great difficulty.
但你知道，看看吧，自从上次认真努力减少政府规模、取消荒谬的监管以来，已经过去很久了。
But you know, look, it's it's been a long time since there was a serious effort to reduce the size of government and to remove absurd regulations.
是的。
Yeah.
而上一次在这方面有真正集中努力的时候，是里根在八十年代初。
And, you know, the last time there was a really concerted effort on that front was Reagan in the early eighties.
我们已经四十年没有认真努力去取消那些不符合公共利益的监管，并减少政府规模了。
We're forty years away from a serious effort to remove, you know, regulations that don't serve the greater good and and reduce the size of government.
我认为，如果我们不这么做，结果就是每年都会不断累积新的监管和法律，最终一切都会变得违法。
And I think it's just if we don't do that, then what's what's happening is that we get regulations and laws accumulating every year until eventually everything's illegal.
这就是为什么在美国我们无法推进大型基础设施项目的原因。
And that's why we can't get major infrastructure projects done in The United States.
比如你看加州高速铁路的荒谬之处，他们花了70亿美元，却只建了一段1600英尺、根本没有铺设铁轨的路段。
Like, you look at the absurdity of the California high speed rail, I think they they spent $7,000,000,000 and have a 1,600 foot segment that doesn't actually have rail in it.
我的意思是，这就是你的税款在发挥作用？
I mean, your tax dollars at work?
我的意思是
I mean
是的
Yeah.
我们到底在做什么？
What are we doing?
这1600英尺的混凝土可真贵啊，你知道的。
That's an expensive 1,600 feet of concrete, you know.
而且我的意思是，我意识到有时候我对时间表可能有点过于乐观，但我的意思是，如果我不是个乐观主义者，我根本不会做我现在做的事。
And and I mean, think it's like if, you know, I realized sometimes I'm perhaps a little optimistic with schedules, but I mean, I I wouldn't be doing the things I'm doing if I was, you know, not an optimist.
但按照目前的趋势，加州高铁可能要到下个世纪才能完工。
So but but but but at the current trend, you know, California High Speed Rail might finish sometime next century.
也许吧。
Maybe.
大概不会。
Probably not.
到那时候，我们会有传送技术。
We'll We'll have teleportation by that time.
是的。
Yeah.
没错。
Exactly.
到那时，人工智能会做所有事情。
AI do everything at that point.
所以，所以，所以你觉得，你知道，美国和许多国家怎么样？
So so so so you can I I think you really think of, you know, the The United States and and many countries?
它 arguably 比欧盟更糟，就像格列佛被百万根细绳绑住一样。
It's it's arguably worse than the EU as being like gulliver tied down by a million little strings.
每一项规定本身并不算太糟，但你有上百万条，实际上甚至是数百万条。
And like any one given regulation is not is not that bad, but you've got a million of them and or millions actually.
最终就什么都做不成了。
And and then eventually just can't get anything done.
这给消费者、给人民带来了巨大的税负。
And and this is a this is a massive tax on the on the consumer, on the people.
他们只是没有意识到，这些非理性的法规实际上是一种巨大的税负。
It's just they don't they don't realize that there's this this massive tax in the form of irrational regulations.
我给你举个最近的例子，简直荒谬至极。
I'm gonna give you a recent example that, you know, is is just insane.
SpaceX 因被指控将饮用水倾倒在地上，被环保署罚款 14 万美元。
Is that like, SpaceX was fined by the EPA, a $140,000 for they claimed dumping portable water on the ground, drinking water.
而我们当时就在星基地。
So and we're like, this is at Star Base.
而且我们身处热带雷暴区。
And and we're like, it's we're in a tropical thunderstorm region.
这些水本来就是从天上下来的。
That stuff comes from the sky all the time.
而且实际上并没有造成任何损害。
And and there was no actual harm done.
你知道，这只是为了在发射时冷却发射台的水，根本没有造成任何伤害。
You know, it's just water to cool the the the launch pad during lift off and there's zero harm done.
他们也同意这一点。
Like And they're like, they agree.
是的。
Yes.
根本没有造成任何伤害。
There's zero harm done.
我们说，好吧。
We're like, okay.
所以并没有造成任何伤害。
So there's no harm done.
难道你希望我们支付14万美元的罚款吗？
And do you want us to pay a $140,000 fine?
他说，是的。
He's like, yes.
因为你没有许可证。
Because you don't have a permit.
好的。
Okay.
我们不知道，在一个本来就会经常下雨的地方，地面上有一点淡水竟然还需要许可证。
We didn't know there was a permit needed for zero home fresh water being on the ground in a place that where fresh water falls from the sky all the time.
明白了。
Got it.
在海洋旁边。
Next to the ocean.
在海洋旁边。
Next to the ocean.
因为那里也有一点水。
Because there's a little bit of water there too.
是的。
Yeah.
我的意思是，既然雨下得这么多，道路都淹了。
I mean, as long as it rained so much, the the roads are flooded.
所以我们就在想，这说得通吗？
So we're like, know, how does this make any sense?
是的。
Yeah.
然后他们就说，除非你们支付这14万美元，否则我们不会处理你们任何关于星舰发射的申请。
And and then like then then they they were like, well, we're not gonna process any more of your any more of your applications for launch, for Starship launch, unless you pay this $140,000.
这对我们来说就是勒索。
This is ransom to us.
我们就说，好吧。
And we're like, okay.
所以我们支付了14万美元。
So we paid a $140,000.
但这根本就不合理。
But it was a it's like this is no good.
我的意思是，照这个速度，我们永远也到不了火星。
I mean, at this rate, we're never gonna get to Mars.
我的意思是，这正是这里令人困惑的地方，对。
I mean, that's the that that's the confounding part here Yeah.
我们正在违背自己的利益。
Is we're acting against our own self interest.
你知道，当我们考虑到必须保留淡水时，但嘿，你知道，火箭会产生很大的噪音。
You know, when you look at we do have to make putting aside fresh water, but, hey, you know, there the rocket makes a lot of noise.
所以我是说，是的。
So I'm Yeah.
我确信偶尔会有人抱怨噪音。
I'm certain there's some complaints about noise once in a while.
但有时候，你想举办一场派对，想取得进展，而一点噪音是难免的。
But sometimes you wanna have a party where you wanna make progress, and there's a little bit of noise.
因此，你知道，我们用一点噪音换取巨大的进步，甚至乐趣。
Therefore, you know, we we trade off a little bit of noise for massive progress or even fun.
是的。
Yes.
那么，我们是什么时候开始无法做出这些权衡的呢？
So, like, when did we stop being able to make those trade offs?
但谈谈你我现在居住的加利福尼亚和德克萨斯之间的区别吧。
But talk about the difference between California and Texas, where you and I now reside.
在德克萨斯，你能够建成超级工厂。
Texas, you were able to build the Gigafactory.
我记得你拿到那块地的时候，似乎不到两年你就举办了开业派对。
I remember when you got the plot of land, and there it seemed like it was less than two years when you had the party to open it.
对。
Yeah.
从从
From from
从开工到完工只用了十四个半月。
start of construction to completion was fourteen months.
十四。
Fourteen.
十四个月。
Fourteen months.
地球上还有哪里
Is there anywhere on the planet that
能更快吗？
would go faster?
中国比这还快吗？
Is like China faster than that?
中国用了十一个月。
China was eleven months.
明白了。
Got it.
所以得克萨斯州和中国分别是十一个月和十四个月。
So Texas, China, eleven and fourteen months.
加利福尼亚需要多少个月？
California, how many months?
为了让你有个规模概念，我们在中国的特斯拉超级工厂是五角大楼的三倍大。
And just to give you a sense of size, the our Tesla Gigafactory in China is three times the size of the Pentagon.
五角大楼曾经是美国最大的建筑吗？
Which was the biggest building in America?
不是。
No.
有更大的建筑，五角大楼已经算是非常大的了。
There are bigger buildings, the Pentagon's a pretty big one.
是的。
Yeah.
或者它曾经是最大的。
Or it was the biggest
以五角大楼为单位的话，它大约是三倍。
In units in units of Pentagon, it's like three.
好的。
Okay.
三个五角大楼，而且还在增加。
Three Pentagons and counting.
是的。
Yeah.
明白了。
Got it.
十四个月内。
In fourteen months.
仅在加州的监管审批就本需要两年时间。
The just the just the regulatory approvals in California would have taken two years.
对。
Yeah.
所以这就是问题所在。
So that's that's the issue.
你觉得监管在哪些方面有帮助？
Where do you think the regulation helps?
比如，那些会说我们需要一些制衡机制的人。
Like, for the people that will say, we need some checks and balances.
我们不能有太多，因为对于像你这样的好角色，总会有一个坏角色。
We can't have some because for every good actor like you, there'll be a bad actor.
那么，这条界线在哪里？
So where is that line then?
是的。
Yeah.
我的意思是，进行一种明智的放松监管和减少政府规模，就要公开透明，明确说明哪些规定如果公众非常支持并希望保留，我们就保留。
I mean, have a sort of, you know, in sort of doing a sensible deregulation and reduction in the size of government is is just like be very public about it and say like which of these rules do you if if the public is really excited about a rule and wants to keep it, we'll just keep it.
而且关于这些规定，如果某个规定最终被证明是糟糕的，我们就把它重新加回去。
And and here the thing about the rules, if if like if the rule is, you know, turns out to be a bad, we'll just put it right back.
好的。
Okay.
然后，问题就解决了。
And and then, you know, problem solved.
添加规则很容易，但我们实际上没有删除规则的流程。
It's like it's easy to add rules, but we don't actually have a process for getting rid of them.
这才是问题所在。
That's the issue.
规则没有垃圾回收机制。
There's no garbage collection for rules.
当我们刚开始在Twitter工作时，大卫、我和安东尼奥在第一个月全程参与，你采用了零基预算，很快就控制住了成本。
When we were watching you work, David and I and Antonio, in that first month at Twitter, which was all hands on deck, and you were doing zero based budgeting, you really quickly got the costs under control.
然后奇迹般地，所有人都说这个网站要垮了，你却增加了50个新功能。
And then miraculously, everybody said this site will go down and you added 50 more features.
所以也许解释一下，因为这是第一次
So maybe explain because this is the first time
当时有很多文章说Twitter彻底完蛋了。
There were like there were so many articles like the that this this is Twitter is dead forever.
展开剩余字幕（还有 480 条）
根本不可能继续下去了。
There's no way it could possibly even continue at all.
简直像是媒体在
It was almost like the press was
盼着你失败。
rooting for you to fail.
我们来写讣告吧。
Let's write the obituary.
看，这就是讣告。
Look, here's the obituary.
他们都在推特上道别。
They're all saying their goodbyes on Twitter.
还记得吗？
Remember that?
是的。
Yeah.
是的。
Yeah.
是的。
Yeah.
他们当时
They were
都在离开并道别，因为这个网站即将崩溃，是的。
all leaving and saying their goodbyes because the site was gonna melt down and Yes.
彻底失败了，所有记者都离开了。
Totally failing and All the journalists left.
是的。
Yeah.
如果你真想和一群刻板的规矩守护者混在一起，天啊，Threads简直太棒了。
Which is if you ever wanna like hang out with a bunch of hall monitors, oh my god, Threads is amazing.
每次我去那里发帖，他们都会特别激动，但是
Every time I go over there and post, they're like, they they're really triggered, but
是的。
Yeah.
我的意思是，如果你喜欢不断被谴责，那没错。
I mean, if you like being condemned repeatedly, then Yes.
你知道吗，出于一些毫无道理的原因，Threads 就是你的不二之选。
You know, for reasons that make no sense, then Threads is the way to go.
是的。
Yeah.
这真是地球上最令人沮丧的地方。
It's really it's it's the most miserable place on earth.
迪士尼才是最快乐的。
Disney's the happiest.
这里是迪士尼的反面。
This is the anti Disney.
是的。
Yeah.
但如果我们进入政府，比如进入教育部或者随便哪个部门。
But if we were to go into government, you went into the Department of Education or pick the department.
你其实已经和很多部门合作过了。
You've worked with a lot of them, actually.
当然。
Sure.
你不能一进去就搞零基预算。
You you can't go in there and zero based budget.
好的。
Okay.
我们明白。
We get it.
但如果你能把其中两三个、百分之五的机构配对起来，会产生什么样的影响？
But if you could just pair two, three, 5% of those organizations, what kind of impact would that have?
是的。
Yeah.
我的意思是，我认为我们得做更多才行。
I mean, I think we'd need to do more than that.
想想看。
Think
理想情况下。
Ideally.
但确实。
But Yeah.
每年复合增长3%，我的意思是，这会比现在的情况更好。
Compounding every year, 3% a year, I mean, it would be better than what's happening now.
是的。
Yeah.
听我说。
Look.
我认为，如果特朗普赢了，而我当然不认为这显然是一件所有人都持一致看法的事，我怀疑很多人对这件事是否应该发生都抱有复杂的情绪。
I think we've we've, you know, if Trump wins and I I don't obviously, this this I suspect there are people with mixed feelings about whether that should happen.
但我们确实有机会进行一次千载难逢的放松管制和缩减政府规模。
But but if but we do have an opportunity to do kind of a once in a lifetime deregulation and reduction in the size of government.
因为除了监管之外，美国也在迅速走向破产。
Because because the other thing besides the regulations, America is also going bankrupt extremely quickly.
而且似乎没人在意，大家都像在墓地旁吹着口哨装作没事一样。
And and nobody seems to Everyone seems to be sort of whistling past the graveyard on this one.
但他们都在
But They're all they're
忙着抢夺银器。
all grabbing the silverware.
在泰坦尼克号沉没之前，人人都在往自己口袋里塞银器。
Everyone's stuffing their pockets in the silverware before this Titanic sinks.
这就像是
It's like
你知道，国防部的预算是一笔非常庞大的开支。
Well, you know, the defense department budget is a very big budget.
明白吗？
Okay?
每年高达一万亿美元。
It's a trillion dollars a year.
国防部、情报部门，加起来是一万亿美元。
DOD, Intel, it's trill a trillion dollars.
国债的利息支付已经超过了国防部的预算。
And interest payments on the national debt just exceeded the Defense Department budget.
但仅利息一项，每年就超过一万亿美元，而且还在不断上升。
But they're over a trillion dollars a year just in interest and rising.
我们每三个月就要增加一万亿的净债务，这些债务最终都得由我们的孩子和孙子们来偿还。
We're we're adding a trillion dollars to the net to our debt which our, you know, kids and grandkids are gonna have to pay somehow, you know, every every three months.
很快，每两个月就要增加一次，然后变成每个月都要增加。
And then if soon it's gonna be every two months, and then every month.
到那时，我们唯一能支付的就只剩下利息了。
And then the only thing we'll be able to pay is interest.
是的。
Yeah.
而且，这就像一个人过度累积了信用卡债务，只是规模更大而已。
And and if if this it's it's just, you know, the it's just like a person at scale that has racked up too much credit card debt.
这种情况不会有好的结局。
And this this this is not this is not have a a good ending.
所以我们必须减少支出。
How can And so so we we have to reduce the spending.
让我问一个问题，因为我经常提到这一点，而我听到的反对意见——虽然我不认同——是很多政客说：如果我们削减支出，现在联邦、州和地方政府的支出加起来占GDP的40%到50%。
Let me ask one question because I brought this up a lot and the counterargument I hear, which I disagree with, but the counterargument I hear from a lot of politicians is if we reduce spending because right now if you add up federal, state, and local government spending, it's between 4050% of GDP.
所以我们的经济近一半依赖政府支出，近一半的美国人直接或间接依赖政府拨款，无论是通过政府合同的承包商，还是受雇于政府机构。
So nearly half of our economy is supported by government spending and nearly half of people in The United States are dependent directly or indirectly on government checks and either through contractors that that the government pays or they're employed by government entity.
所以如果你操之过急、大幅削减，就会导致严重萎缩、失业和经济衰退。
So if you go in and you take too hardened acts too fast, you will have significant contraction, job loss and recession.
那么，埃隆，这个平衡点在哪里？
What's the balancing act, Elon?
只是现实地想想，因为我完全支持你，接下来的步骤假设特朗普赢了，你成为首席DOGE。
Just thinking realistically because I'm a 100% on board with you, the steps the next set of steps, however, assume Trump wins and you become the the the chief DOGE.
D o g。
D o g.
Do know，就像双g。
Do know, like double g.
是的，没错。
How yeah.
而且我认为
And I think the
挑战在于我们能多快地，嗯。
challenge is how quickly can we yeah.
我们能多快地介入？
How quickly can we go in?
这真是个蠢货。
It's a douche.
事情变化能有多快？
How how quickly can things change?
而且没有没有没有
And without without without
我把这个印在我的名片上了。
I left that on my business card.
是的。
Yeah.
没有所有的收缩和工作，是的。
Without all the without all the contraction and job Yeah.
是的。
Yeah.
所以我想，该如何
So so I guess how do
当你面对如此多的
you really address it when so much of the
经济和如此多人的就业与生计都依赖于政府支出，该怎么办呢？
economy and so many people's jobs and livelihoods are dependent on government spending?
我的意思是，我认为这其实是一种虚假的二元对立。
Well, I mean, I I do think it's it's it's sort of, you know, it's a false dichotomy.
并不是说政府支出会完全停止。
It's not like no government spending is gonna happen.
你真正需要思考的是：支出水平是否恰当？
You really have to say like, is it the right level?
请记住，任何一个人，如果在效率较低的组织中工作，而不是在效率更高的组织中，他们对经济的贡献、商品和服务的净产出都会减少。
And and just remember that that, you know, any any given person, if they are doing things in a less efficient organization versus a more efficient organization, their contribution to the economy, their net output of goods and services will will reduce.
我举几个明显的例子，比如东德和西德，朝鲜和韩国。
I mean, you've got a couple of clear examples between East Germany and West Germany, North Korea and South Korea.
朝鲜，人们正在挨饿。
I mean, North Korea, they're starving.
韩国，却非常繁荣。
South Korea, it's like amazing.
这是未来。
It's the future.
生产力提升的复利效应。
The compounding effect of productivity gains.
是的。
Yeah.
对。
Yeah.
天差地别。
It's night and day.
没错。
Yeah.
在朝鲜，政府完全主导一切。
And so in the North North Korea, you've got a 100% government.
在韩国，政府占比大概只有40%左右吧。
In in South Korea, you've got probably, I don't know, 40% government.
这不是零。
It's not zero.
是的。
Yeah.
然而，韩国的生活水平可能是北韩的十倍。
And yet you've got a standard of living that is probably 10 times higher in South Korea.
至少是这样。
At least.
至少是这样。
At least.
没错。
Exactly.
还有东西德的情况。
And then East And West Germany.
在西德，你想到的不只是汽车，还有宝马、保时捷、奥迪、奔驰；而东德，不过是一条随意画出的分界线。
In West Germany, you you hadn't just thinking in terms of cars, I mean, you had BMW, Porsche, Audi, Mercedes, and and and East Germany, which is a random line on a map.
你唯一能买到的车是特拉班特，基本上就是个装了外壳的割草机。
You you the car only car you could get was a a Trabant, which is basically a lawn mower with a shell on it.
而且它极其不安全。
And it was extremely unsafe.
你得等上二十年。
You you there was a twenty year wait.
所以你会想，把孩子的名字加到排队名单上。
So you're like, you know, put your kid on the list.
从他们一受孕就开始。
As soon as they're conceived.
从他们一受孕就开始。
As soon as they're conceived.
即便如此，可能也只有四分之一的人能买到这辆破车。
And and even then, only I think, you know, a quarter of people maybe got got this lousy car.
这只是一个有趣的例子，说明基本上是同一群人，只是用了不同的系统。
And it's just the same it's so so that's just an interesting example of like basically the same people, different operating system.
是的。
Yeah.
而且
And
西德也不是什么资本主义天堂，你知道的。
and it's not like what West Germany was some, you know, you know, a capitalist heaven.
实际上，它相当社会主义。
It was it's quite socialist actually.
所以当你看的话，西德可能有一半是政府主导，而东德则是百分之百政府主导。
So so when you look, you know, probably it was half half government in West Germany and and a 100% government in East Germany.
而且，生活水平的差距至少是五到十倍，而且质量也远远更好。
And and again, sort of a a five to I'd like to call it a call it at least a five to 10 x standard of living difference and and even qualitatively vastly better.
在现代，人们经常激烈争论哪种制度更好，这显然如此。
And and it's obviously, you know, sometimes people have these amazingly in this modern era, this debate as to which system is better.
我来告诉你哪种制度更好。
Well, I'll tell you which system is better.
那个不需要建墙来留住人民的系统。
The one that doesn't need to build the wall to keep people in.
明白吗？
Okay?
这就是判断的方法。
That's that's how you can tell.
明白吗？
Okay?
是的。
Yeah.
这简直是铁证如山。
It's a dead giveaway.
剧透一下。
Spoiler alert.
铁证如山。
Dead giveaway.
他们是爬墙想出去还是进来？
Are they climbing the wall to You get out or come
必须建一道屏障来留住人们。
have to keep build a barrier to keep people in.
这才是糟糕的制度。
That is the bad system.
不是西柏林建了这堵墙。
We It wasn't West West Berlin that built the wall.
明白吗？
Okay?
就像，你知道的，任何想逃离西柏林的人，尽管去吧。
Were like, you know, anyone who wants to flee West Berlin, go ahead.
说到围墙，如果你看看从古巴出发的船只流量，会发现大量船只从古巴出发，而且有很多免费的船，任何人都可以搭乘，是的。
Speaking of walls So You know, and and and if you look at sort of the flux of boats from Cuba, there's a large number of boats from Cuba and there's a bunch of free boats that you anyone can take Yes.
去去
To to
古巴的船都是空的。
They're empty on Cuba.
是的。
The Yeah.
它们就像
They're like
有很多空位。
Plenty of seats.
这里有，呃。
There's there's like, hey.
哇。
Wow.
一艘废弃的船。
An abandoned boat.
我可以利用这艘船去古巴，那里实行共产主义。
I could use this boat to go to Cuba where they have communism.
太棒了。
Awesome.
是的。
Yes.
但偏偏没人去把这些船捡起来并这么做。
And and yet nobody nobody picks up those boats and and does it.
太惊人了。
Amazing.
所以你对这个想了很多。
So You've given this a lot of thought.
是的。
Yeah.
等等。
Wait.
所以你的意思是
So your point is
将会创造就业机会。
jobs will be created.
如果我们削减政府支出，是的。
If we cut government spending Yes.
减半的话，就业机会会足够快地产生。
In half jobs will be created fast enough
来弥补损失，对吧，仅仅是为了统计数字。
to make up for, right, just to count.
是的。
Yes.
显然，我不是在建议人们立刻被解雇，没有任何遣散费，以至于无法支付房贷。
Obviously, you know, I'm not suggesting that that people, you know, have like immediately turfed you know, tossed out with with no severance and and, you know, can't now can't pay their mortgage.
他们需要看到一个合理的退出机制，针对现有计划。
They need to see some reasonable off ramp where Existing plan.
对。
Yeah.
是的。
Yeah.
所以是一个合理的退出机制，他们仍然在工作，仍然在领钱，但有一两年的时间去私营部门找工作，他们一定能找到。
So reasonable off ramp where, you know, they're still, you know, earning they're still receiving money but have like, I don't know, a year or two to to find jobs in the private sector, which they will find.
然后他们就会进入一个不同的运行系统。
And then they will be in a different operating system.
再次，你可以看到其中的差异。
Again, you can see the difference.
东德被并入了西德。
East Germany was incorporated into West Germany.
东德的生活水平显著提高。
Living standards in East Germany rose dramatically.
那么，如果在特朗普执政的四年里削减政府规模，你觉得一个合适的目标是多少？
Well So four years, if you could shrink the side size of the government with Trump, what would be a good target?
就大概估算一下。
Just in terms of like ballpark.
我的意思是，你
I mean, are
是不是想
you trying
在这件事发生之前就让我被暗杀？
to get me assassinated before this even happens?
不是。
No.
不是。
No.
选个低一点的数字。
Pick a low number.
我的意思是，你知道，有句老话叫‘发疯杀人’。
I mean, you know, there's that old phrase go postal.
我的意思是，他们可能会。
I mean, it's like they might.
是的。
Yeah.
不是我。
Not me.
所以我们还是会保留邮局。
So we'll keep the post office.
我的意思是，伙计们，我需要港口安保人员。
I mean, I'm gonna need a harbor security details, guys.
对。
Yes.
我的意思是，那些对前政府雇员感到不满的人数，确实是个令人害怕的数字。
Mean The sheer number of disgruntled workers for former government employees is, you know, quite a scary number.
我的意思是，我可能活不下去了，你知道的。
I mean, I might not make it, you know.
我说过，连续四年都保持极低的数字是可以接受的。
I was saying low low digits every year for four years would be palatable.
是的。
Yeah.
我喜欢你提出的这个提议。
And I like your idea of an offer.
但问题是，如果错失了这种一生一次或一代人一次的机会，却没有采取严肃的行动，嗯。
But the thing is that if it's not done, like, if if you have a once once in a lifetime or once in a generation opportunity and you don't take serious action Mhmm.
然后你有四年时间来完成它。
And and then you have four years to get it done.
然后，如果没完成的话，那就……
And then and if it doesn't get done, then
特朗普对这件事有多认真？
How serious is Trump about this?
你跟他谈过这件事吧。
Like, you've talked to him about it.
是吗？
Yeah?
是的。
Yeah.
我认为他对此非常认真。
I think he's he's he is very serious about it.
明白了。
Got it.
不。
And no.
我认为实际上，如果我们取消无谓的监管，把人员从政府 sector 转移到私营 sector，我们将获得巨大的繁荣，我认为这个国家将迎来一个黄金时代。
I I think actually the reality is that if we get rid of nonsense regulations and shift people from the government sector to the private sector, we will have immense prosperity and and I think we'll have a golden age in this country.
那将会非常棒。
And it'll be fantastic.
可以
Can
我们能谈谈SpaceX吗？
we can we talk about SpaceX?
好的。
Okay.
你
You
你即将迎来一系列关键里程碑。
have a bunch of critical milestones coming up.
是的。
Yeah.
事实上，今晚可能有一场重要且令人兴奋的发射任务。
In fact, there's an important a very exciting launch that is maybe happening tonight.
如果天气状况保持良好，我就会离开这里，前往卡纳维拉尔角，参加由贾里德·艾森曼资助的Polaris Dawn任务，他是个了不起的人。
So if that if the weather is is holding up, then I'm gonna leave here, head to Cape Canaveral for the the Polaris Dawn mission which is a private mission funded by Jared Eisenman and he's awesome guy.
这将是首次由私人公司执行的太空行走，并且将是自阿波罗任务以来最高海拔的飞行。
And and there this will be the first time first private the first first commercial for spacewalk and and it'll be at the highest altitude since Apollo.
这将是人类迄今为止离地球最远的一次航行。
So it's the furthest from earth that anyone's gone.
假设这次任务成功了，接下来会发生什么？
And you you know, what comes Let's after assume that's successful and
我当然希望如此，老兄。
I sure hope so, man.
别有压力。
No pressure.
是的。
Yeah.
你知道，宇航员的安全是最重要的，如果我能许一个愿望，那一定是这个。
We're you know, absolute know, astronaut prior astronaut safety is man, if I had like all all the all the wishes I could say about, that would be the one to to put on.
太空是危险的。
So, you know, space is dangerous.
是的。
So the the Yeah.
也就是说，接下来的里程碑是星舰的下一次飞行，而星舰已经准备好发射了。
I mean, the the next milestone after that would be the next flight of Starship, which, you know, Starship is the next flight of Starship is ready to fly.
我们正在等待监管批准。
We are waiting for regulatory approval.
你知道的。
You know.
是的。
Yeah.
实际上，不可能比纸张从一张桌子移到另一张桌子还快地建造出一枚巨型火箭。
It it it really should not be possible to build a giant rocket faster than the paper can move from one desk to another.
这太吓人了。
That's scary.
真的很难。
It's really hard.
批准了。
Approved.
对。
Yeah.
你看过那部电影《疯狂动物城》吗？
You ever see that movie Zootopia?
你看过那部电影《疯狂动物城》吗？
You ever see that movie Zootopia?
有个树懒来申请审批。
There's like a sloth coming in for the approval.
是的。
Yeah.
而且他们
And they
不小心讲了个笑话，我当时就想，糟了。
accidentally tell a joke and then and I was like, oh no.
这不行。
This is No.
来了。
Here we go.
这是
This is
会花很长时间。
gonna take a long time.
抱歉。
Sorry.
抱歉。
Sorry.
但是，是的，关于《疯狂动物城》，你知道，有趣的是，我在《疯狂动物城》上映一年后去车管局办理续证。
But, yeah, the the the Zootopia, you know, if you know, the funny thing is like, so I went to the DMV about, I don't know, a year later after Zootopia and to get my whatever license renewal.
那个工作人员出于极强的自我意识，竟然在他的工位上放了《疯狂动物城》里的树懒？
And the guy in in an exercise of incredible self awareness had the sloth from Zootopia in his In his cube?
就在他的工位上，而且他本人居然特别快。
In in in his cube and he was actually swift.
是的。
Yeah.
带着这个规定。
With that with the mandate.
打败那只树懒。
Beat the sloth.
是的。
Yeah.
对。
Yeah.
不。
No.
打败个人能动性。
Beat personal agency.
个人能动性。
Personal agency.
不。
No.
我的意思是，有些人觉得政府比实际上更有能力。
I mean, some people like think the, you know, the government is more competent than it than it is.
我并不是说政府里没有能干的人。
I'm not saying that there aren't competent people in the government.
他们只是在一个低效的系统中运作。
They're just in an operating system that is inefficient.
一旦把他们放到一个更高效的系统里，他们的产出就会大幅提高，就像东德并入西德时那样——同样的人，在基本是半资本主义的体系下变得富裕得多。
Once you move them to a more efficient operating system, they their output is dramatically greater as we've seen, you know, when East Germany was reintegrated to into with West Germany and and and the same people were vastly more prosperous with a basically half capitalist operating system.
所以对很多人来说，他们对政府最直接的体验就是车管所。
So but I mean, for a lot of people live there, like their maybe most direct experience with with the government is the DMV.
而重要的是要记住，政府就是放大版的车管所。
And and and then the important thing to remember is that the government is the DMV at scale.
没错。
Right.
政府就是这样。
That's the government.
明白了。
Got the mental picture.
你想把它扩大到什么程度？
How much do you wanna scale it?
是的。
Yeah.
对。
Yeah.
埃隆，抱歉。
Elon, sorry.
你能
Can you
回到查马斯关于星舰的问题吗？
go back to Chamath's question on Starship?
所以你前几天刚宣布，星舰将在两年内前往火星。
So you you announced just the other day Starship going to Mars in two years.
而且
And
顺便说一下。
By the way.
哦。
Oh.
是的。
Yeah.
是的。
Yeah.
是的。
Yeah.
是的。
Yeah.
然后四年用于
And then four years for
在下一个窗口期进行一次粗略的愿景发射。
a crude aspirational launch in the next window.
政府参与了多少？
And how much is the government involved
关于NASA，我不是说你们被这些监视着，不是那种意思。
in NASA I'm not saying, like, say you're watched by these, not you know.
但根据我们目前的进展，使用星舰，我们已经成功两次达到了轨道速度。
But these but it based on our current progress where with Starship, we're able to successfully reach oval of velocity twice.
我们能够实现助推器和飞船在水中软着陆。
We're able to achieve soft landings of the the booster and the ship in the water.
尽管飞船有一半的襟翼被烧毁了。
And that's despite the ship having, you know, half its flaps cooked off.
你可以在X平台上看到这段视频。
You can see the video on the X platform.
这非常令人兴奋。
It's quite exciting.
所以，我们认为我们能够可靠、重复且快速地进行发射。
So, you know, we we we think we'll be able to have to to launch reliably and repeatedly and quite quickly.
而火箭技术实现多行星生命所需的最基本、最根本的突破，就是一种快速可重复使用且可靠的火箭。
And the the the fundamental holy grail breakthrough for rocketry for the fundamental breakthrough that is needed for life to become multi planetary is a rapidly reusable, reliable rocket.
对于某个海盗来说。
For a pirate somehow.
把一个海盗扔进去。
Throw a pirate in there.
因此，星舰是第一个在完全可重复使用的情况下，成功成为可能结果之一的火箭设计。
The so with Starship is the first rocket design where success is one of the possible outcomes with full reusability.
所以，对于任何一个项目，你都必须说，这是一个图表中的圆圈。
So if we have for any given project, you have to say, this is the circle to a diagram.
这是一个圆圈，成功就是圆圈中的那个点。
Here's a circle and is success the success dot in the circle.
成功是否在可能的结果集合之中？
Is is success in the set of possible outcomes?
你知道，这听起来似乎很明显，但很多项目中，成功根本不在可能的结果范围内。
That's you know, it sounds pretty obvious but there are often projects where that that is success is not in the set of possible outcomes.
因此，星舰不仅将完全可重复使用纳入了可能的结果之中，而且每次发射都在验证这一点。
And so so Starship not only is fully full reusability in the set of possible outcomes, it it is being proven with each launch.
我确信它一定会成功。
And and I'm confident it will succeed.
这只是一个时间问题。
It's simply a matter of time.
而且，如果你能加快监管速度，我们实际上可以快得多。
And, you know, if if we we can get some improvement in the speed of regulation, we we could actually move a lot faster.
所以这会非常有帮助。
So that would that would be very helpful.
事实上，如果不对减少监管、加快审批流程采取行动——我要明确说明，我并不是在谈论任何不安全的事情。
And and in fact, if if this if not if something isn't done about reducing regulation and and sort of speeding up approvals and to be clear, I'm not talking about anything unsafe.
仅仅是安全事项的审批流程，完全可以跟火箭的建造速度一样快，而不是拖慢进度，这样我们才能成为星际文明、多星球物种，最终在未来遨游群星。
It's simply the processing of the safe thing can be done at a as as fast as the rocket is built, not slower than than than we could become a space faring civilization and a multi planet species and ultimate and and be out there among the stars in the future.
而且你知道，非常重要的是我们要有一些令人振奋的事物，让我们展望未来时能说，未来会比过去更好，有一些值得期待的东西。
And there's you know, it's it's it's just very like, it's incredibly important that we have things that that we find inspiring that you look to the future and say the future is gonna be better than the past, things to look forward to.
比如，孩子们就是一个很好的衡量标准。
And like like, kids are a good a good way to assess this.
孩子们对什么感到兴奋？
Like, what are kids fired up about?
如果你能说，你知道，你将来有可能成为火星上的宇航员。
And if you can say, you know, you you could, you know, you could be an astronaut on Mars.
你也许有一天能飞出太阳系。
You you could maybe one day go beyond the solar system.
我们可以让《星际迷航》中的星fleet学院成为现实。
We could make Star Trek, Starfleet Academy real.
这是一个令人兴奋的未来。
That is an exciting future.
这令人鼓舞。
That is inspiring.
你知道，我的意思是，你需要一些能打动你内心的东西。
You know, just I mean, you need things that move your heart.
没错。
Right.
是的。
Yeah.
没错！
Fuck yeah.
没错！
Fuck yeah.
咱们干吧。
Let's do it.
对。
Yeah.
我的意思是
I mean
生活不能只是不断解决一个又一个糟糕的问题。
Like like life can't just be about solving one miserable problem after another.
对。
Right.
你肯定也期待有一些令人向往的事情。
There's gotta be things that you look forward to as well.
是的。
Yeah.
而且，你觉得你是不是得把它转移到另一个司法管辖区，并且加快进度？
And and do you do you think you might have to move it to a different jurisdiction and to and to move faster?
我一直在想，比如
I've always wondered if like
火箭技术被视为先进武器技术，所以我们不能随便就去做，你知道的。
It would it's rocket technology is considered an advanced weapons technology, so we can't just go do it, you know
在另一个国家。
In another country.
是的。
Yes.
对，没错。
In a yeah.
有意思。
Interesting.
如果我们不做，其他国家可能会做。
And if we don't do it, other countries could do it.
我的意思是，他们现在远远落后于我们，但从理论上讲，这里确实存在国家安全方面的考量——如果有人能认真想想，我们难道希望团队如此努力研发的技术被其他国家窃取吗？而且，也许他们那边的官僚程序没那么多。
I mean, they're so far behind us, but theoretically, there is a national security, you know, justification here if if somebody can put their thinking caps on, like, do we want to have this technology that you're building, the team's working so hard on stolen by other countries, and then, you know, maybe they don't have as much red tape.
我真希望有人想偷走它。
I I wish people were trying to steal it.
所以根本没人想偷它。
So that no no one's trying to steal it.
这太疯狂了，简直不可思议。
It's just too it it this is too it's too crazy, basically.
这是给你的。
And that's for you.
是的。
Yeah.
这太疯狂了。
It's way too crazy.
埃隆，你认为是什么原因导致波音公司以这种方式建造了星际航线飞船？
Elon, what do you think is going on that led to Boeing building the Starliner the way that they did?
他们成功把它送上了天。
They were able to get it up.
但没有完成。
But not complete.
但无法完成。
But can't complete.
他们无法收尾。
They can't finish.
无法完成。
Can't finish.
而现在，你将要
And now, you're gonna have
上去完成它。
to go up and finish.
我的意思是，波音是一家与政府有大量业务往来的公司。
Well, I mean, think Boeing is a company that is they actually do so much business with the government.
他们与政府之间有一种契合关系。
They have sort of impedance match to the government.
所以他们基本上只比政府低一级。
So they're they're like basically one notch away from the government.
从效率角度来看，他们离政府并不远，因为他们大部分收入都来自政府。
Maybe to they're not far from the government from an efficiency standpoint because they derive so much of the revenue from the government.
现在很多人认为，SpaceX高度依赖政府，但实际上并非如此，我们的大部分收入来自商业领域。
Now a lot of people think, well, SpaceX is super dependent on the government and actually, no, most of our revenue is commercial.
所以，而且，而且，直到最近为止，我认为至少是这样，因为现在我们有一位新CEO，他真的会到工厂来。
So and and and and there's been I think at least up until perhaps recently because then I have a new CEO who actually shows up in the factory.
是的。
Yeah.
之前的CEO，我认为他学的是会计，从没去过工厂，也不懂飞机是怎么飞的。
And the CEO before that I think had a degree in accounting and and never went to the factory and didn't know how airplanes flew.
如果你负责一家制造飞机和航天器进入轨道的公司，
I think if you are in charge of a company that makes airplanes fly and spacecraft go to orbit.
你至少需要懂一点。
You need to know one.
它们的工作原理不能对你来说完全是个谜。
Then it can't be a total mystery as to how they work.
对。
Yeah.
所以，你知道的，我就觉得，当然。
So, you know, I'm like, sure.
如果有人在经营可口可乐或百事可乐，而且他们非常擅长营销之类的，那没问题，因为这并不是一种依赖技术的业务。
If somebody is like running Coke or Pepsi and and they're like great at marketing or whatever, that's that's fine because it was, you know, it's not it's not a sort of technology dependent business.
你知道的，或者如果他们经营财务咨询，拥有会计学位，那就说得通了。
You know, or if if they're running a, you know, financial consulting and their degrees in accounting, that makes sense.
但我认为，如果你是骑兵队长，你就应该懂得如何骑马。
But I think, you know, if if you're if you're the cavalry captain, you should know how to ride a horse.
这很基本。
Pretty basic.
是的。
Yeah.
对。
Yeah.
这是一笔好交易。
It's a good deal.
如果骑兵队长从马上摔下来，那就让人很不安了。
It's like it's disconcerting if the cavalry captain just falls off the horse.
知道吗？
Know?
他害怕马。
He's He's scared of horses.
对不起。
I'm sorry.
我害怕马。
I'm scared of horses.
他骑马时背对着马。
Gets on backwards.
我心想：哎呀。
I'm like, oops.
我们换个话题，谈谈人工智能。
Shifting gears to AI.
彼得之前来过，他提到到目前为止，真正从人工智能中赚钱的公司只有英伟达，靠的是芯片。
Peter was here earlier and he was talking about how so far the only company to really make money off AI is NVIDIA with the chips.
你目前有没有觉得AI最大的应用会出现在哪些领域？
Do you have a sense yet of where you think the big applications will be from AI?
是自动驾驶吗？
Is it gonna be an enabling self driving?
是机器人吗？
Is it gonna be enabling robots?
是改变各个行业吗？
Is it transforming industries?
我的意思是，我觉得在AI将对商业产生重大影响的方面，现在还处于早期阶段。
I mean, it's still I think early in terms of where the big business impact's gonna be.
你目前有没有感觉？
Do you have a sense yet?
我的意思是，我认为目前对AI的投入肯定已经超过了收入。
I I mean, I think I think the spending the on AI probably runs ahead of I mean, does run ahead of the revenue right now.
这一点毫无疑问。
That's there's no question about that.
但人工智能的进步速度远远超过我所见过的任何技术。
But the rate of improvement of AI is faster than any technology I've ever seen by far.
而且，比如说，图灵测试曾经是个大事。
And and and it's I mean, like the the for example, a Turing test used to be a thing.
现在，你随便用一个开源的大型语言模型，哪怕是在树莓派上运行，都可能通过图灵测试。
Now, you know, your basic open source random LLM you're writing on a frigging Raspberry Pi probably could, you know, beat the Turing test.
所以我认为，人工智能的美好未来是带来巨大繁荣的时代，物质和服务将极度丰富，不再短缺。
So there's I I I think actually like like, the the good future of AI is one of immense prosperity where there is an age of abundance, no shortage of goods and services.
每个人都能拥有他们想要的一切，除了那些我们人为定义为稀缺的东西，比如某些特殊艺术品。
Everyone can have whatever they want unless except for things we artificially define to be scarce like some special artwork.
但任何制造品或提供的服务，随着人工智能和机器人技术的发展，其成本都将趋向于零。
But but anything that is of manufactured good or provided service will I think with the advent of AI plus robotics, that the cost of goods and services will be will trend to zero.
我不是说成本真的会变成零，但每个人都能得到他们想要的任何东西。
Like, I'm not saying it'd be actually zero, but it'll be every everyone will be able to have anything they want.
是的。
Mhmm.
那就是美好的未来。
That's that's the good future.
当然，在我看来，这种情况有80%的可能性。
Of course, you know, in my view that's probably 80% likely.
所以要往好的方面看。
So look on the bright side.
大概有20%。
Probably 20%.
有20%的可能性是毁灭。
20% probably of annihilation.
什么都没有。
Nothing.
这20%的可能性具体会是什么样子？
Is the is the 20% like, what does that look like?
我不知道啊，老兄。
I don't know, man.
我的意思是，坦白说，为了能睡个好觉，我确实得刻意对自己关于人工智能的某些看法保持一种怀疑态度。
I mean, frankly, I do have to go engage in some degree of of deliberate suspension of disbelief with respect to AI in order to sleep well.
即便如此，我认为真正最可能的问题是：在人工智能能比我们做得更好的世界里，我们该如何找到意义？
And even then, because I I think the actual issue the the most likely issue is like, how do we find meaning in a world where AI can do everything we can do a bit better?
那才是更大的挑战。
That that is that is perhaps the bigger challenge.
不过，我知道越来越多退休的人，他们似乎很享受这种生活。
Although, you know, at this point I know more and more people who are retired and they seem to enjoy that life.
所以，我认为可能会出现某种意义危机，因为计算机能比你做得更好，而且样样都能做。
So but I think that that may be may maybe there'll be some crisis of meaning, like because the computer can do everything you can do but better.
所以，这可能是个挑战。
So may maybe that'll be a challenge.
但说实话，你需要的是终端执行装置。
But but really, you know, you need you need the sort of end effectors.
你需要自动驾驶汽车，也需要类人机器人或通用机器人。
You need the the autonomous cars and you need the sort of humanoid robots or your general purpose robots.
但一旦你拥有了通用人形机器人和自动驾驶汽车，你实际上就能建造任何东西。
But the once you have general purpose humanoid robots and autonomous vehicles, you really, you you can build anything.
而且我认为，经济规模实际上没有上限。
And and and this this I think that there's no actual limit to the size of the economy.
我的意思是，显然，地球如此庞大，总会有一个限制。
I mean, there's obviously, you you know, the massive earth, you know, like that there'll be a limit one limit.
但你知道，经济其实就是人均生产力乘以人口数量。
But the, you know, the the economy is is really just the average productivity per person times number of people.
这就是经济。
That's the economy.
如果你拥有可以无限数量部署的人形机器人，它们能非常智能地运作，那么经济就真的没有实际限制，经济也没有有意义的上限。
And if you've if you've got humanoid robots that can do, you know, where there's no real limit on the number of humanoid robots and and they they can operate very intelligently, then then there's no actual limit to the economy in a there's no meaningful limit to the economy.
你们刚刚启动了Colossus，这大概是全球最大的私人GPU计算集群。
You guys just turned on Colossus, which is like the largest private compute cluster, I guess, of GPUs anywhere.
是这样吗？
Is that right?
这是迄今为止最强大的超级计算机。
It's it's the it's the the most powerful supercomputer of any kind.
这正好印证了大卫和彼得所说的，到目前为止，人工智能的大部分经济价值都流向了英伟达。
Which sort of speaks to what David said and kind of what Peter said, which is a lot of the kind of economic value so far of AI AI has entirely gone to NVIDIA.
但也有其他人提供了替代方案，而你恰恰就是其中之一。
But there are people with alternatives and you're actually one with an alternative.
你现在有一个非常具体的案例，因为Dojo主要处理图像和大型图像、海量视频。
Now you have a very specific case because Dojo is really about images and large images, huge video.
所以
So
是的。
Yeah.
我的意思是，特斯拉的问题与大型语言模型的问题是不同的。
I mean, the Tesla problem is different from the, you know, the sort of LLM problem.
在特斯拉的情况下，智能的本质以及人工智能中真正重要的东西，与你刚才提到的观点不同，因为特斯拉的上下文长度非常长。
The the nature of the intelligence actually is actually and and the what what matters in AI is is different to to the point you just made which is that in the in Tesla's case, the context length is very long.
所以你有千兆字节的上下文。
So you've got gigabytes of context.
千兆字节的上下文窗口。
Gigabytes of context windows.
是的。
Yeah.
对。
Yeah.
你有，你知道，大概
You've got, you know, sort of
我只是想提一下
I was just bringing
这个。
it up.
大概是数十亿个标记的上下文。
Kind of billions of tokens of context.
并不是任何数量的上下文，因为你有七个摄像头，如果你有好几个，比如说是几分钟的高清摄像头，那就会产生数GB的数据。
Not not any amount of context because you've got seven seven cameras and if if you've got several, you know, let's say you've got a minute of several high high def cameras, then that's gigabytes.
所以你需要压缩数据。特斯拉的问题在于，你需要将巨大的上下文压缩到真正重要的像素中，并在时间维度上进行浓缩。因此，你必须在空间维度和时间维度上都压缩像素。
So you need to compress So the Tesla problem is you've to compress a gigantic context into the the pixels that are that actually matter and, you know, and and and condense that over a time And so you've got to In in both the time dimension and space dimension, you've got to compress the pixels in space and pixels over in time.
然后在相对而言非常小的计算机上完成推理，比如只有几百瓦功率的设备。
And and and then and then have that inference done on a tiny computer, relatively speaking, a small like, you know, a few 100 watts.
这是特斯拉设计的AI推理计算机，顺便说一句，它仍然是市场上最好的，我们从供应商那里买不到更好的产品。
It's a Tesla designed AI inference computer, which by the way is still the best there isn't a better thing we could buy from suppliers.
特斯拉汽车中搭载的这款特斯拉设计的AI推理计算机，比我们从任何供应商那里能买到的都要好。
So the Tesla designed AI inference computer that's in the cars is better than anything we we could buy from any supplier.
顺便说一句，这有点像是
Just by the way, that's kind of a
哦，顺便说一下
Oh, by the
特斯拉的AI芯片团队非常出色。
way The Tesla AI AI chip team is extremely good.
你们在设计方面，你们团队中有人发表了一篇技术论文和一份演示文稿，这让我感到非常震撼。
You guys in the design, there was a technical paper and there was a deck that somebody on your team from Tesla published, and it was stunning to me.
你们自己设计了一套基于以太网的传输控制层。
You designed your own transport control, like, layer over Ethernet.
你们觉得以太网对你们来说还不够好。
You're like, oh, Ethernet's not good enough for us.
是的。
Yeah.
你们搞了个TTCOE之类的协议，然后说：‘我们就重新发明一套以太网，把这些芯片串起来。’
You have this t t c o e or something, and you're like, oh, we're just gonna reinvent Ethernet and, like, string these chips.
那边正在发生的事情真是令人难以置信。
It's pretty incredible stuff that's happening over there.
是的。
Yeah.
不。
No.
特斯拉芯片设计团队非常非常优秀。
The team the the Tesla chip design team is extremely extremely good.
所以
So
但是否存在这样一种情况：随着时间推移，其他需要视频或图像处理场景的人可能会想，为什么不呢？
But is there a world where, for example, other people over time that need, you know, some sort of like video use case or image use case could theoretically, you know, you'd say, oh, why not?
你可以在那边多利用一些空闲算力。
You know, have some extra cycles over here.
这实际上会让你成为英伟达的竞争对手。
So which should kind of make you a competitor of NVIDIA.
这并不是有意为之，但
It's not intentionally per se, but
是的。
Yeah.
我的意思是，你知道，有训练和推理这两个项目，我们在特斯拉确实有这两个项目。
I mean, the the You know, there's this training and inference and we we do have the, you know, two those two projects at Tesla.
我们有Dojo，这是训练计算机，还有我们的推理芯片，它安装在每一辆车的推理计算机中。
We've got Dojo, which is the the training computer and then, you know, our inference chip which is in every every car inference computer.
所以，到目前为止，我们只拥有Dojo一号。
So and and at Dojo, we've only had Dojo one.
Dojo二号预计将在明年年底实现批量生产。
Dojo two is, you know, should be we should have dojo two in volume towards the end of next year.
而我们认为，Dojo二号将类似于B200类型的训练系统。
And and that that that will be, we we think, sort of comparable to sort of a b 200 type type system, a training system.
因此，理论上它有可能被用作一种服务。
And, you know, so there's I guess there's some potential for for that to be used as a service.
但Dojo本质上就像是——我的意思是，我们确实对Dojo的信心有所提升，但我认为我们真正了解Dojo有多优秀，可能要等到第三代。
But but, like, dojo is is is just kinda like I mean, we're we're we're I guess I I guess I have, like, some improved confidence in dojo, But I think we won't really know how good Dojo is until probably version three.
通常，一项技术需要经过三次重大迭代才能达到卓越水平。
Like, it usually takes three major iterations on a technology for it to be to be excellent.
而我们明年才只会完成第二次重大迭代。
And we'll only have the second major iteration next year.
第三次迭代，我不确定，也许在2026年底左右吧。
The third iteration, I don't know, maybe late, you know, '26 or something like that.
Optimus项目进展如何？
How's the how's the Optimus project going?
我记得上次我们聊的时候，你公开说过，它已经在工厂里进行一些轻量级测试了。
I remember when we talked last, and you said this publicly, that it's in doing some light testing inside the factory.
所以它实际上已经派上用场了。
So it's actually being useful.
这种东西在规模化生产时，材料成本是多少？
What's the build of materials and when you know, for something like that at scale.
当你开始大规模生产，就像现在Model 3那样，每天有上百万台下线，它们的成本会是多少？
So when you start making it like you're making the model three now and there's a million of them coming off the factory line, What would the would they cost?
你觉得是2万、3万、4万美元吗？
$20.30, $40,000, you think?
是的。
Yeah.
我的意思是，我真正发现的是，任何以足够规模生产的东西，其成本都会逐渐趋近于材料成本。
I mean, what I mean, I've discovered really that, you know, anything made in sufficient volume will asymptotically approach the cost of its of its materials.
所以现在有一些东西受限于知识产权成本，比如支付专利费用等。
So now there's there's I should say there's so some things are constrained by the cost of intellectual property and like paying for patents and stuff.
所以很多芯片里的成本，其实是支付版税和芯片制造厂的折旧。
So a lot of, you know, what what's in a a chip is like paying paying royalties and depreciation of the chip fab.
但芯片本身的模块成本非常低。
So but the actual module cost of the chips is very low.
所以Optimus显然是一款人形机器人，它的重量和体积都比汽车小得多。
So so so Optimus, it obviously is humanoid robot, it it is it weighs much less and is much smaller than a car.
因此，在大规模生产的情况下，我认为你可能还需要开发三个版本的Optimus。
So the you could expect that in high volume and and I'd say that you also probably need three three production versions of Optimus.
你需要至少三次重大设计优化，然后将生产规模提升到每年百万台以上的水平。
So you need to refine the design three at least three major times and and then you need to scale production to sort of the million unit plus per year level.
我认为到了那个时候，Optimus的劳动力和材料成本可能不会超过1万美元。
And I think at that point, the cost the the, you know, the the the labor and materials on Optimus is probably not much more than $10,000.
是的
Yeah.
这是一段长达十年的旅程，也许？
And that's a decade long journey, maybe?
基本上，可以想象Optimus的成本会低于一辆小型汽车。
Basically, think of it like the the Optimus will cost less than a a small car.
对。
Right.
在大规模生产并经过三次重大技术迭代的情况下。
So at at scale volume with three major iterations of technology.
如果一辆小型汽车售价25,000美元，那么Optimus——这种能成为你伙伴的类人机器人，兼具R2-D2和C-3PO的优点但更出色——可能只需20,000美元左右。
And and so if a small car, you know, costs $25,000, you know, it's it's probably like a I don't know, $20,000 for for an optimist, for a humanoid robot that can be your your buddy like a combination of r two d two and c three p o but better.
是的
Yeah.
我的意思是，说实话，我认为人们会真正对他们的类人机器人产生情感依恋，因为你看看《星球大战》，就会喜欢上R2-D2和C-3PO这些角色。
I mean You know, that's that's I honestly I think people are gonna get really attached to their humanoid robot because I mean, like you look at sort of watch Star Wars and it's like R2 D2 and c three I love those guys.
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