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好了，各位。
Alright, everybody.
欢迎回到全球排名第一的播客节目。
Welcome back to the number one podcast in the world.
我们这次是线下相聚。
We are together in person.
没错。
Yes.
好兄弟们齐聚拉斯维加斯。
The besties are together in Vegas.
这将是一段美妙时光。
It's gonna be a great time.
我们是为F1赛事而来。
We're here for f one.
这个
This
这就是测试。
is the test.
这是测试。
This is test.
威尼斯的朋友们一直是非常出色、慷慨的主人。
Friends at The Venetian have been amazing, gracious hosts.
他们把他们漂亮的录音室借给了我们。
They gave us their beautiful studio here.
我们要玩几把牌。
We're gonna play some cards.
菲尔·赫尔姆斯、杰森·库恩都会来，我们所有的好朋友们都会到场。
We're gonna have Phil Hellmuth, Jason Kuhn, all of our besties are coming.
而且
And
我以前从没在威尼斯人酒店住过。
I have I've never stayed at Venetian before.
太棒了。
It's amazing.
他们给我们安排的套房太棒了。
Wonderful suites they gave us.
这里很美。
It's beautiful.
他们给我们VIP待遇，这里正是你想打牌的地方。
They VIP'd us out, and this is the place you wanna play cards.
他们有一个漂亮的全新扑克室。
They've got a beautiful brand new poker room.
他们还有高额赌注房间。
They got a high stakes room.
我们会在这里玩
We'll be playing
稍后。
here later.
我们将会玩牌
We'll be playing Playing
遍及这场精彩的比赛
all over the great game.
而且没错，就在一级方程式赛道旁
And and yes, trackside for Formula one.
而我们正是为一站式而来
And we're here for f one.
我们即将发布
We're gonna be releasing
和我一起的汽车经销商
car dealer with me.
等一下。
Wait.
你带了个汽车经销商跟他一起？
You brought a car dealer with him?
你认识马修吗？
You know Matthew?
哦，是你那个
Oh, your car dealer from your
老家
home
游戏
game
是的。
is Yeah.
马修，汽车经销商。
Matthew, car dealer.
他是死钱吗？
Is he dead money?
这里有什么故事？
What's the story here?
很遗憾。
Is Sadly.
不是吗？
That No?
好吧。
Okay.
真遗憾。
Sadly.
我有一阵子没参加家庭牌局了，看来有些人玩得有点过火。
Haven't been in the home game for a little bit, and it looks like people got out of line.
不过无论如何，非常感谢我们在威尼斯人酒店的朋友们。
But anyway, thank you so much to our friends at the Venetian.
他们在这里制作了大量扑克内容，你可以在他们的YouTube频道上观看。
They're doing a ton of poker content here, so you can look at that on their YouTube.
好了，各位。
Alright, everybody.
你们一直想让我们谈谈爱泼斯坦文件，今天我们就来聊聊这个出人意料的事件。
You've wanted us to talk about the Epstein files, and we're gonna talk about it today in a stunning turn of events.
众议院和参议院几乎一致投票决定公开爱泼斯坦文件。
The house and senate voted nearly unanimously to release the Epstein files.
投票结果是427票赞成，1票反对，查马斯，针对爱泼斯坦文件。
The vote was 427 to one, Chamath, for the Epstein files
谁弃权了？
Who abstained?
法案。
Act.
不是。
No.
弃权者是来自路易斯安那州的共和党人克莱·希金斯，这招玩得漂亮。
The person who abstained, well played, was Republican Clay Higgins from Louisiana.
谢谢提问。
Thanks for asking.
他表示这会揭露并伤害到成千上万的无辜者、证人、提供不在场证明的人以及家庭成员。
He said it reveals and injures thousands of innocent people, witnesses, people who provided alibis, family members.
他提出了很好的观点，但总检察长潘班迪已经就此表态，他们不会公布任何正在调查中的案件，如果会伤害到任何人，他们会释放相关人员的名字。
He makes a great point, but AG Panbandi, of course, has addressed that already that they're not gonna release any open investigations, and they're going to, remove names if it would harm anybody.
参议院以一致同意的方式通过了该法案，这需要每位议员的支持，而特朗普昨晚签署了该法案，表示要给予他们一切。
The senate passed it by unanimous consent, which requires a sign off from every senator and Trump in a reversal, signed the bill last night saying, give them everything.
我们上周确实看到了一些来自爱泼斯坦文件的电子邮件被公开。
We did see some emails come out from the Epstein files last week.
播客之友拉里·萨默斯是文件中的主要人物，他直到2019年还在与爱泼斯坦保持联系，向他请教约会建议。
Friend of the pod, Larry Summers, was a main character in them, and he was communicating with Epstein up until 2019 asking him for advice on dating.
他随后从OpenAI及多个其他公众职位上退了下来。
He's since stepped down from OpenAI and several other public facing roles.
而且我想，他刚刚被哈佛大学停职了。
And was just, I think, put on leave from Harvard.
我是说，，你们觉得这件事会引发什么后果呢？
I mean, what do you guys think's gonna be the fallout from this, I guess,
是指文件公布后会发生什么吗？
is what From the release of the files?
是那个
Is that
问题？
the question?
我是说，我们不妨戴上我们的锡箔帽（意指保持怀疑态度）。
I mean, I guess we'll Well, let's our tinfoil hats on.
但听着，我们来分析一下。
But look, let's break this down.
我认为第一个问题是，爱泼斯坦文件与唐纳德·特朗普之间有何关联？
So I think the first question is, what is the relation between the Epstein files and Donald Trump?
我认为答案是很牵强的。
And I think the answer is it's flimsy.
因为他是地球上被调查最多、诉讼最多的人。
And the reason is because this is the most investigated, most litigated human being on Earth.
我认为，如果你手上有关于特朗普极其淫秽且指控性极强的材料，拜登政府时期就会公布这些内容，因为从政治角度出发，这能有效打击他的竞选活动。
And I think that if you had something that was incredibly salacious and accusatory of Trump, it would have been released during the Biden administration because it would have made a lot of sense politically to try to damage his candidacy.
所以事实上我们除了看到一些照片外几乎一无所获，是的。
So the fact that we haven't seen much of anything other than some photos Yes.
这意味着这些材料与特朗普毫无关联。
Means that there's nothing there related to Trump.
那么问题来了：为什么拜登政府在持有这些文件四年期间没有公布更多内容？
So then the question is, why didn't the Biden administration release more of the files when they had them for four years?
很可能是因为相当数量的民主党幕僚也牵涉其中。
And it's probably because there are a nontrivial number of democratic operatives that are touched by these things.
嗯，另外我认为他们未公布的原因还在于吉斯莱恩·麦克斯韦尔案件仍在审理中，她正在上诉阶段所以不能公开。
Well, also, they did have I think the reason they didn't release them was because there was an open Ghislain Maxwell case as well, and she was appealing it so they couldn't release it.
可能涉及到的民主党人士大概有两个，
There's there's probably two of them,
不过确实。
but Yeah.
但你知道这是怎么运作的。
But you know how this works.
泄密的方式数不胜数。
There's innumerable number of ways to leak stuff.
对吧？
Right?
嗯。
Mhmm.
我的观点是，现在你开始在这些文件中看到的，似乎是民主党建制派精英比共和党更受牵连。
My point is now what you're starting to see in these documents is that it seems to be tainting the Democratic establishment elite more than the Republicans.
这解释了为什么过去四年泄密事件如此之少。
It explains why there was so few leaks in the last four years.
关键是杰弗里·爱泼斯坦完全是个变态。
The point is Jeffrey Epstein was a total creep.
对吧？
Right?
那座岛应该被水泥覆盖然后沉没。
That island should be covered in cement and drowned.
那栋房子应该被烧成灰烬然后重建，而且必须确保是你说的这些话。
The house should be burned to the ground and replaced with something nice, and you have to make sure that these you're the one that said this.
是一千名女性吗？
It's a thousand women?
这是我看到的。
That's what I saw a
报道里说的。
report there.
说是一千名女性。
Saying a thousand women.
好的。
Okay.
有人提到是一千名女性。
Someone said a thousand women.
显然，据称里面有受害者说过‘我们有一千人’这样的说法。
You have to be Apparently, in there, there's claims that it's oh, it was one of the victims who said there's a thousand of us.
好的。
Okay.
我的意思是，你必须极其谨慎和周到地保护他们的权利，并尊重他们所经历的一切。
I mean, you have to be incredibly careful and thoughtful to protect their rights and just to respect what they've gone through.
但我认为现在我们需要有序地公布这些文件，将这一事件翻篇，从中吸取教训，改进自身，尊重这些人，然后继续前进。
But I think now we need to just release these files in an orderly manner and put this episode behind us, learn what we need to learn from it, get better, be better, treat these people with respect, and move on.
是啊。
Yeah.
我觉得...但你觉得
I think But do you
你认为公布这些文件是为了帮助受害者，还是为了搜集攻击政敌的材料？
think the release of the files is meant to help the the victims, or do you think it's meant to identify fodder to go after political enemies?
这两者都不是。
Neither of those two things.
现阶段公布这些文件，是关于权力持有者与诉求者之间的一种契约。
The releasing of the files at this point is one of these things that is about a compact between those that have power and those that ask for something.
这个问题已经激起了数百万美国人的关注。
This is an issue that has animated millions of Americans.
因此，当他们不断要求公开这些内容时，我认为政府应当倾听民意并以尊重的方式予以公布，这是一个积极的信号。
So when they constantly keep asking for these things to be put out there, I think it's a good signal for the government to listen to folks and release them, again, in a respectful way.
类似地，我认为还有其他事项也属于这一范畴。
Similarly, there are other things that I think fall into this.
我们听说过肯尼迪档案。
We've heard about the JFK files.
对吧？
Right?
马丁·路德·金遇刺案、阿梅莉亚·埃尔哈特档案。
The killing of Martin Luther King, the Amelia Earhart files.
所以
And so
所有关于不明飞行物的文件。
All the UFO files.
所有关于不明飞行物的文件。
All the UFO files.
我认为这表明了一种对选民公众需求作出回应的模式。
I think what it does is it shows a pattern of being responsive to the voting public.
我觉得这是一件好事。
And I think that that's a good thing.
顺便说一下，希金斯曾是一名警长。
So Higgins, who, by the way, was a sheriff.
他曾是陆军参谋军士，在国会任职大约九年。
He was an army staff sergeant, and he's been in congress for, I think, nine years.
除了谈论受害者，他还表示，这违背了美国250年来的刑事司法程序惯例，向狂热媒体广泛公开刑事调查文件绝对会导致无辜者受到伤害。
In addition to talking about the victims, he said, you know, this abandons two hundred and fifty years of criminal justice present procedure in America and, releasing broad reveal of criminal investigative files released to a rabid media will absolutely result in innocent people being hurt.
你认为这是否像爱泼斯坦案这样的特例，因为它如此非同寻常且牵涉众多人物？
Do you think this is like a singular situation with Epstein because it's so extraordinary and there's so many people tied up in it?
还是说这会开创一个先例，每当公众和媒体开始要求时
Or does this set a precedent where anytime people and the media start to say, hey.
我们想知道正在进行的或过去的调查内情，这些文件就会被公开，从而形成新标准，我们将开始这样公开调查文件？
We wanna know what's going on in the middle of an active investigation or former investigation that these files kind of get released and this becomes a new standard where we're just gonna start to open up investigative files like this.
你认为这是个别现象吗？
Do think it's like a singular thing?
因为这就是他的核心观点。
Because this is his whole point.
这感觉像是个别现象。
This feels like a singular thing.
而且这类问题通常需要酝酿十年二十年，人们才会希望真相大白。
Like and also it'll bake for a lot of these issues have to bake for a decade or two before people want them to come out.
这件事已经持续了多少个十年？
This has been going on for now for how many decades?
现在差不多是个二十年的故事了。
Well, what's is like a twenty year story right now.
多年往事
Year story.
我觉得调查中缺失的关键部分是：他是如何在佛罗里达州全身而退的？
I feel like the investigative piece that's missing is how did he get away scot free in Florida?
实际上当时——他确实被提起了刑事诉讼
I actually When there was He was criminally charged.
他被定罪后认罪协商，结果基本算是被放走了
He was convicted and plead out, and he was basically let go.
我觉得这个故事你应该知道些内情
I story that I feel you you know about this.
我...我确实知道一点，因为我在TED大会上见过爱泼斯坦五六次
I I know a little bit about it because I met Epstein half dozen times at the TED conference.
你真的见过？
But you did?
是的
Yes.
真有意思。
So interesting.
我在推特上不断谈论这件事，因为你也在他的书里。
I've talked about it on my Twitter incessantly because I've You you are in his book.
我是他黑名单上的数千人之一。
I I am amongst the thousands of people in his black book.
我在TED会议上见过他。
I met him at the TED conference.
你知道杰弗里·爱泼斯坦是谁吗？
My Do you know who Jeffrey Epstein.
大卫和我。
David and I.
好的。
Okay.
恭喜。
Congratulations.
你们当时不在纽约。
You guys weren't in New York.
我去了，只是避开了那个房间。
I went to the I just avoided that room.
嗯，TED大会上有个亿万富翁晚宴。
Well, there was a billionaires dinner at the TED conference.
我其实没参加TED大会。
I didn't actually go to the TED conference.
我的图书经纪人会主办亿万富翁晚宴。
My book agent would host the billionaires dinner.
嗯哼。
Uh-huh.
如果你输入亿万富翁晚宴
If you type in billionaires dinner
过去常去TED大会。
used go to the TED conference.
你过去
You used
常去参加TED大会。
to go to the TED conference.
就好像我
It was like I
从未被邀请过亿万富翁晚宴。
was never invited to the billionaires dinner.
这是
This is
在九十年代。
in the nineteen nineties.
是的。
Yes.
就像，这故事有多久远了。
Like, this is how old this is.
是啊。
Yeah.
他当时在那里向科学家们捐款捐款。
He was there giving donations donations to to scientists.
科学家们。
Scientists.
没错。
Right.
对。
Right.
马文·明斯基来自MIT，乔伊也是MIT的，所有这些。当他后来在迈阿密被捕时，TED圈子里传的说法是他被设局了，就是跟一个未成年女孩的事。
Marvin Marvin Minsky MIT, Joey MIT, all that And when he went away and he got busted in Miami, the way it was framed in the TED community was that he was set up, and this was just like an underage girl.
他们查过她的身份证，感觉像是某种陷阱，然后他就被允许在家工作了。是的。
They had checked her ID, and it was like some sort of a setup, and that he had been given a work from home Yes.
正是这样。
That's right.
句子。
Sentence.
他本可以每天去上班，然后却要报到入狱，这一切都被他们描绘成一场误会。
He could go to work every day, and then he had to report to jail, and that it was all just like a misunderstanding is how they framed it.
回想起来，我认为他是个间谍。
I think, looking back on it, I think he's a spy.
我认为他为情报机构工作过。
I think he worked for intelligence agencies.
现在，我可不是这个播客里的阴谋论者。
Now I I am not the conspiracy theorist of this podcast.
是为其工作还是共享情报？
Worked for or shared intel with?
因为好吧。
Because Okay.
确实。
Sure.
是啊。
Yeah.
我...那个领域里的任何人都可能。
I I it could be any in that sector.
我们都认识情报界的人，传递情报有很多简单方法，不用非得...确实。
We all know people in the intelligence community, and there's easy ways to pass intel without it being Sure.
没错。
Yes.
比如正式受雇那种。
Like working for.
那么问题就变成了：他是否是个线人？
Then I think the question becomes, was he an asset?
他是否在泄露情报？
Was he sharing information?
程度有多深？
To what extent?
我认为这一点的原因是，他为何会对顶尖大学里的顶尖科学家产生兴趣并接近他们，然后他又想把那些信息传递给谁呢？
And the reason I think this is because why would he have an interest in the top scientists in the top universities to get close to them, and then who did he want to pass that information onto?
谁会想要从科学家那里获取顶级情报？
Who would want top intelligence from scientists?
俄罗斯、以色列、中情局。
Russia, Israel, the CIA.
而且关于‘黑材料’的事情看起来也很可能，因为他到处都安装了摄像头，他们讨论过这一点。
And then the Compromat thing does seem also likely because he had cameras everywhere, and they've talked about this.
所以我认为摄像头
So I think cameras
你是说他录下了名人的视频，然后利用这些来获取好处？
And you're saying he recorded famous people and then used that to get things?
我认为这部分故事有一定可能是真实的。
I think there is a non zero chance that that part of the story is true.
故事中尚未解答的部分但我并不
The part of the story that's unanswered But I don't
我不确定这事发生的概率是否高达90%。
know that it's like a 90% chance that happened.
我认为当我们回顾这件事时，会发现有一群人与这个到处撒钱的人有过尴尬的互动。
And I think that when we go back and we look at this, there's a bunch of people who have embarrassing interactions with this person who spread money everywhere.
所有人都想要他的钱。
Everybody wanted his money.
这就是他们排着队的原因。
That's why they were lining up.
所有科学家、Joey Ito、Reid Hoffman这些人都试图得到他的钱，这很反常。
All the scientists, Joey Ito, Reid Hoffman, all of these folks were trying to get his money, which is peculiar.
他还给微软的人、Peter Thiel提供税务建议。
And he was also giving tax advice to the Microsoft people, to Peter Thiel.
所以他总是试图融入那些有权有钱的人和科学家的圈子。
So he was always trying to integrate himself into powerful people with money and scientists.
为什么？
Why?
是为了赚钱还是另有目的？
Was it to make money or was it for some other purpose?
我认为不是为了赚钱。
I think it was not to make money.
我觉得这里另有隐情。
I think there was some other purpose here.
我并非阴谋论者，但这件事拖了这么久仍未公开，我认为其中
Now I am not a conspiracy theorist, but because this thing has gone on so long and it has not been released, I think there's
有机制在抑制着它。
There's mechanisms that are keeping it at bay.
对我来说这就是奥卡姆剃刀原则的版本，我认为这将会让情报机构面临非常尴尬或妥协的银行问题，我认为这与肯尼迪遇刺案背后的情况是相同的。
That's what that's to me like the Occam's razor version I of think there's gonna be very embarrassing or compromising banks for for intelligence agencies, which is I think the same thing behind If I could have one thing JFK's assassination.
如果我可以
If I could
从爱泼斯坦文件中得到一个问题的答案，或者如果我能直接得到这个问题的答案，我想知道：他的钱都是从哪里来的？
have one question answered for me out of the Epstein files or if I could just have the question answered, I'd wanna know where did all his money come from?
因为不太清楚一个为亿万富翁韦克斯勒管理资金的人是怎么做到的。
Because it is not very clear how a guy who was managing money for a billionaire Wexler.
韦克斯勒我们都知道，如果你是资金管理人，可能一年赚0.5%——不。
Wexler we all know, like, if you're a money manager, maybe you're making half a percent a year No.
那些是有记录的。
They that was documented.
阿波罗基金创始人莱昂·布莱克曾一年支付爱泼斯坦1.68亿美元作为税务咨询费。
Leon Black, who's the founder of Apollo, in one year paid Epstein a $168,000,000 for tax advice.
这起诉讼最终导致莱昂·布莱克从阿波罗辞职。
That came out in the lawsuit that ultimately led to Leon Black resigning from Apollo.
对。
Right.
但税务咨询费是怎么回事？
And But did with the tax advice?
比如
Like
他是这么说的。
That's what he said it was.
现在听着。
Now look.
我不是想高估任何人，但我已经请了所有税务顾问来给我提供建议。
I'm not trying to high roll anybody, but I've had all the tax advisers come and give me their advice.
这没花你1.68亿。
It didn't cost you a 168,000,000.
现在他们只收你1200。
They cost you 1,200 now.
不。
No.
它花了我几百万。
It's cost me millions.
给我他们的好吧。
Give me their Okay.
建议。
Advice.
但我实在难以理解能给我什么建议
But it's never I I am hard pressed to understand what advice could have been given to me
是啊。
Yeah.
那本应让我支付1.68亿美元，这才是爆炸性新闻。
That where I would have paid a $168,000,000 Now that's breaking news.
这是你的会计师。
Here's your accountant.
他们刚把账单发过来。
They just sent the bill.
金额是1.72亿。
It's a 172,000,000.
不。
No.
不。
No.
不。
No.
这太疯狂了。
And it's crazy.
对。
Right.
你说得对。
You're right.
而且，你看。
And and look.
如果你去找美国最好的房地产律师
If you go to the the best estate lawyers in The United States
好的。
Okay.
这会花费你500到1000万美元。
It will cost you 5 to $10,000,000.
你认为他当时拿钱是为了什么？
What do you think he was getting paid for?
我是说，他是否因为利用税务漏洞而获得了一部分节省下来的钱？
I mean, was he getting a portion of the savings for doing tax loopholes?
也许他是按某种佣金收费的，但他曾为许多像微软高管这样的人担任资金管理人。
Maybe he was charging on some sort of a commission, but he had he was a money manager for many of these, like Microsoft executives, etcetera.
当彼得·蒂尔问，你为什么要见我？
And when Peter Thiel said, why did you meet with me?
他说是为了税务咨询，这完全符合彼得·蒂尔的风格，合情合理，完全说得通。
He said tax advice, which makes total that's a total Peter Thiel, like, legitimate that totally tracks.
彼得·蒂尔以他的罗斯账户而闻名。
Peter Thiel was known for his Roth.
对吧？
Right?
而且众所周知，他专门研究这类事情。
And he's known for, like, studying these kind of things.
这对我来说完全合理。
Makes total sense to me.
我觉得我们会遇到一堆像拉里·萨默斯那样的尴尬事件。
I think that we're gonna have a bunch of Larry Summers like embarrassing things.
那里可能有让民主党、共和党、中间派、科学家们难堪的事情——特别是那些去过岛上的科学家之类的。
There could be embarrassing things there for Democrats, Republicans, everybody in between, the scientists, obviously, who went to the island and all that stuff.
所有事情都会很尴尬。
It's gonna be all embarrassing.
我觉得到最后我们会发现，
And I think we're gonna get to the end of the day.
某些情报机构以某种方式参与其中，这就是为什么事情被掩盖，这就是为什么...
We're gonna find out that some intelligence agency was somehow involved in this, and that's why it's being covered up, and that's why it's
这就是你的预测。
so That's your prediction.
这就是我的预测。
That's that's my prediction.
是的。
Yes.
诺斯特·卡纳斯发话了。
Noster Canath has spoken.
你会选择哪个情报机构？
Which intelligence agency will you pick?
是啊。
Yeah.
哦，好极了，先生。
Oh, good, sir.
看看你的水晶球。
Look into your crystal ball.
我是说CIA——应该是三大情报机构之一，他在最近这轮邮件往来中，正与来自以色列、CIA的人员交谈，还和俄罗斯人有过接触。
I mean, CIA I mean, it would be one of the big three, the CIA, which he was talking to I think in this latest Volley of emails, was talking to people from Israel, from the CIA, and he was talking to Russians.
他在被泄露的邮件中同时与这三方进行了交谈。
He was talking to all three in the emails that had been leaked.
所以你能搜索到俄罗斯情报部门？
So you can search to Russian intelligence?
他当时正在与俄罗斯人交谈。
He was talking to Russians.
天啊。
Oh my god.
真的吗？
Really?
是的。
Yes.
俄罗斯方面，我认为总体而言他与俄罗斯关系非常密切。
Russians, I think, is just generally, he was very involved with Russia.
你能想象如果我们从事那份工作会有多焦虑吗？
Could you imagine how much anxiety we we would have if that was our job?
你能想象吗？
Could you imagine?
老兄。
Dude.
我简直无法想象。
I can't even imagine.
我只想去办公室，做些东西，在提案推特上做些投资。
I just wanna go to my office, build some stuff, make a few investments on Proposal Twitter.
陪孩子玩，发发短信。
Play with my kids Text people.
懂吗？
You know?
随便混混。
Mess around.
这感觉就像是，什么情况？
It just seems like, what?
什么？
What?
哦，我是说，我只是...所以，杰森，当他们制作
Oh, my mean, I just So, Jason, when they make
这部电影时，你会亲自出演还是
the movie, are you gonna play yourself or
我是说，如果你上网查看，去edge.org网站看看那些亿万富翁的晚宴照片，你会看到我和拉里、谢尔盖、扎克、埃文·威廉姆斯在二十九、三十岁时的合影
I mean, if you look online, if you go to the edge.org site and you look at those billionaire dinners, you'll see me in a couple of pictures with Larry, Sergei, Zuck, Ev Williams when we were all twenty nine, thirty years
提名杰西·艾森伯格来扮演你？
nominate Jesse Eisenberg to play you?
我知道他的头发是卷的，而你是
I know his hair is curly and yours is
更像莱昂纳多，或者有人会说像伊桑·霍克。
more like Leo or people might say Ethan Hawke.
我经常听到这些说法，但我想...
I get a lot of those, but I I guess.
谁来扮演吉斯兰？
Who would play a Ghislain?
我是说
I mean
谁来扮演吉斯兰。
Who plays Ghislain.
谁来扮演里德·霍夫曼？
Plays Reid Hoffman?
里德·霍夫曼。
Reid Hoffman.
谁会付钱给里德·霍夫曼？
Who would pay Reid Hoffman?
是啊。
Yeah.
我实在无法想象里德会参与那些胡闹行为。
I I just don't see a world in which Reed was involved in shenanigans.
我完全实话实说。
I'll be totally honest.
我认为他只是想筹钱。
I think he was just trying to raise money.
我觉得这不公平，每个见过他的人都像被拖下水，好像他们某种程度上都是恋童癖似的。
I think it's, like, unfair that everybody is, like, who met him is being dragged into, like, oh, they were somehow a pet a pedophile.
这太疯狂了。
That's just crazy.
我认为他们当时都在尝试
I think they were all trying
这家伙是个完美的社交达人，显然做了很多事情。
get guy was a consummate networker, obviously doing a bunch of stuff.
他资助了所有那些晚宴。
He funded all of those dinners.
他当时资助了所有这些晚宴。
He was funding all of these dinners.
他在纽约举办晚宴。
He was hosting dinners in New York.
在纽约，他以举办各种名人晚宴而闻名。
In New York, he was known for having these dinner parties with, you know, all kinds of famous people.
你可以上网查查。
You can look online.
那基本上就是他的主要业务。
He was constantly his business, pretty much.
他的业务就是与人会面，而且他
His business was to meet with people and he would
是为了举办晚宴吗？
To throw dinners?
就是为了办晚宴，Chamath。
To throw dinners, Chamath.
听起来热量消耗很大啊。
That seems calorically taxing.
你懂我意思吗？
You know what I mean?
就像晚宴，你会在晚宴上吃撑。
Like, dinner parties, like, you overeat at a dinner party.
想象一下每周要参加三场这样的晚宴。
Imagine having, like, three of those a week.
我不
I don't
我不知道。
I don't know.
杰森没有
Jason didn't
认识每周举办三场晚宴的人。
know anybody who's having three dinner parties a week.
那可真是够多的。
It's a lot.
展开剩余字幕（还有 480 条）
好吧。
Alright.
Jason和我昨晚去了Carbone餐厅。
Jason and went to Carbone last night.
等Ketan来了我们再聊这事。
Well We'll talk about it when Ketan gets here.
刚才有点火药味了。
That got a little heated.
我是说，说到我们会
I mean, speaking of We'll
谈谈这个。
talk about it.
我们会在这里谈。
We'll talk about here.
有人越界了。
It Somebody got out of line.
好的。
Alright.
再次感谢我们在威尼斯人酒店的朋友们。
Thanks again to our friends at the Venetian.
昨晚我和Tethr的CEO兼创始人Paulo Arduino共进了晚餐。
I had dinner last night with Paulo Arduino, CEO, founder of Tethr.
等不及要见他了。
Can't wait to meet him.
非常、非常棒的人。
Amazing, amazing guy.
那是一项令人难以置信的业务。
That is an incredible business.
他们是什么来头？
What are they?
现在有1500亿的国债了？
150,000,000,000 in treasuries now?
这确实非常了不起，我来解释为什么这家公司如此出色。
It is it is an incredible, and here's why that business is incredible.
这正是我欣赏的地方。
This is what I like.
你指的是稳定币Tether吗？
You're talking about Tether the stablecoin?
稳定币Tether。
Tether the stablecoin.
是的。
Yes.
全球有5亿人正在使用Tether发行的美元稳定币，遍布非洲、中美洲和亚洲等地，排名第一。
There are 500,000,000 people using US dollar backed stablecoins from Tether all around the world, all over Africa, all over Central America, all over Asia, number one.
第二，其用户基数每季度增长3000万。
Number two, his user base is growing by 30,000,000 users a quarter.
这种金融普惠性最终又反哺美元霸权，简直难以置信。
It's the financial inclusion that then ties back to US dollar hegemony is unbelievable.
所以如果你想想，等等。
So if you think about So wait.
我买稳定币，给我解释一下，就当我是个从没买过稳定币的白痴。
I buy a stable explain it to me like I'm an idiot who's never bought a stable coin.
好的。
Okay.
那你每周都在做什么。
So what are you every week.
所以原因是
So is why
对。
yeah.
就像其他每周一样。
Just like every other week.
所以让我们把这些业务大致看作相同的。
So so let let's look at these businesses as roughly the same.
有Circle。
There's Circle.
有Tether。
There's Tether.
有World Liberty Financial。
There's World Liberty Financial.
它们都有稳定币。
They all have a stablecoin.
它是什么？
What is it?
好的。
Okay.
我们就假设Jason是印度的一名现金工作者。
So let's just say that Jason is a cash worker in India.
就用这个例子来说明。
Let's just use that example.
当然。
Sure.
他赚了100卢比，但卢比一直在贬值。
He gets paid a 100 rupees, and he's like, you know, the rupee is constantly getting devalued.
我的购买力在不断下降。
I have I'm constantly losing purchasing power.
我想把它换成美元。
I wanna swap that into a US dollar.
于是他会创建一个加密钱包，而Tether会说：太好了。
So he would create a crypto wallet, and what Tether will say is, great.
把你的印度卢比（INR），呃抱歉，是你的100卢比给我。
Give me your INR, your €100 oh, sorry, your 100 rupees.
他们会立即将其兑换成美元。
They immediately swap it to a US dollar.
现在就有了对应的美元和代表该美元的代币。
So now there's a US dollar, and there's a token for that dollar.
我把代表那个美元的代币给了杰森。
I give Jason the token for that dollar.
现在我拥有了这个美元。
Now I have this dollar.
我该怎么处理它呢？
What do I do with it?
当我积累足够多的这些美元，比如500亿、1000亿时，我就可以拿这些钱投资国债，确保资金绝对安全。
If when I accumulate enough of these dollars, 50,000,000,000, a 100,000,000,000, I can take that, and I would invest it in treasuries so that it's completely safe.
美国国债。
US treasuries.
美国国债。
US treasuries.
如果杰森决定把它转给你，然后你赎回，我就可以卖掉一点我持有的国债，比如1美元，来撤销这笔交易。
Now if Jason decides to send it to you and then you redeem, I can sell a little bit, $1 of those treasuries that I own, and undo the check.
那泰达公司能获得国债的所有利息吗？
And does Tether earn all the interest on treasuries?
所以我正在获取
So I'm getting
关于这一点
to this.
所以现在Tether、Circle和World Liberty，他们从中赚取利息。
So so now Tether and Circle and World Liberty, they earn interest on that.
所以当这个数字变得足够大时，它会变得极其庞大。
And so now when the number gets big enough, this number gets ginormous.
然后Tether的做法是将这些资金重新投资到各种分布式资产中，比如比特币、黄金、房地产。
Then what they do in Tether's case is they then reinvest this capital into all kinds of distributed assets, Bitcoin, gold, real estate.
但他们同时也在投资非洲金融包容性等项目。
But what they also do is they now invest in things like financial inclusion in Africa.
所以他昨天给我详细介绍了他在做的一系列事情。
So they he walked me through kind of a bunch of things that he's doing yesterday.
这是一项令人难以置信的业务。
It is an incredible business.
因此作为稳定币持有者，我无法从这些国债收益中分得任何利润。
And so as a holder of the stablecoin in my wallet, I'm not earning any of that treasury yield.
我持有的只是面值固定或受美元保护的稳定币。
I just have a flat dollar denominated or dollar protected stablecoin.
没错。
Right.
与美元挂钩。
To the dollar.
你持有的是与美元锚定的稳定币。
You have a dollar pegged stablecoin.
对。
Right.
是的。
Right.
而这对于五亿人来说已经是足够的风险管理和风险缓释措施了，对吧。
And that is sufficient risk management and risk mitigation for half a billion people Right.
他们并不是在追求4%或3%的利息收益。
They're not they're not trying to get a 4% or 3% interest yield.
不是的。
No.
所以现在他们更关心的是你不要陷入
So now They care more about you not being in
你提出了关键问题——在美国，当前的核心争议是什么？
You're bringing up the big point, which is in The United States, what is what is the big fight now?
美国当前这场围绕《清晰法案》的激烈争论，正在国会两院缓慢推进，焦点就在于市场结构应该如何构建。
The big fight in The United States in this thing called the clarity bill that is meandering through the house and the senate is what should happen in the market structure.
具体来说，假设是你大卫·弗里德伯格给了我美元，而我——比方说是Coinbase——发行了稳定币给你，我是否需要与你分享这部分收益？
So meaning, if you, David Friedberg, is the one that gave me the dollar and I am let's for say for example, say, Coinbase, and I issue you a stablecoin, do I share that revenue with you?
还是你能获得全部收益？
Do you earn all of it?
显然，像摩根大通、花旗银行这些传统银行绝不会接受这种模式。
Obviously, the banks, like the JP Morgans of the world, the Citibanks, they don't want that.
对。
Right.
对吧？
Right?
因为那是他们的净息差。
Because that's their net interest margin.
没错。
Right.
这就是当今的现状。
That's what that's what happens today.
是的。
Right.
你把钱存入银行。
You deposit money in the bank.
萨克斯在节目中提到过这一点。
And Sacks said this on program.
花旗银行开始行动
Citibank goes
在名单上消失了。
off in the list.
稳定币立法中，他们未能赋予稳定币提供商向消费者支付利息的权限。
The stablecoin legislation, they weren't able to give the stablecoin providers the ability to pay interest to consumers.
他们做出了这一让步，但随着时间的推移会有所改变。
They did that concession, but that will change over time.
但银行成功争取到了这一让步。
But the banks were able to fight for that concession.
银行成功争取到了这一点。
The banks were able to fight for it.
但随后新兴的加密公司表示，嘿，
But then you have the the the emergent crypto companies who say, hey.
这就像让我们找到一种能实现共享机制的方式。
This is like let's find a way where we can do a a sharing mechanism.
他们规避的方式是通过一种类似分享的机制，但采用这种名为'奖励'的笨拙方法。
How they hack around it is they do kind of sharing, but this via this kludgy way called rewards.
是的。
Yes.
所以，就像你赚取奖励积分那样，但这并非其应有的形式。
So, like, you earn rewards and you earn reward points, but it's not really what it should be.
正确的做法应该是：如果你赚取了净息差，就应该能分享这部分收益。
It should be that if you earn net interest margin, you should be able to share that.
而且，不同市场应该适用不同规则——毕竟在肯尼亚，你最不关心的可能就是那4%的收益。
And and by the way, you should be able to have different rules in different markets because, again, if you're in Kenya, the last thing you're probably thinking is, do I get the 4%?
你更担心的是肯尼亚货币（不管叫什么）今年又要贬值60%。
What you're more worried about is the Kenyan currency, whatever it's called, is about to depreciate another 60% this year.
没错。
Right.
让我先对冲这个风险。
Let me just hedge that.
对。
Right.
而且这已经绰绰有余了。
And that's more than enough value.
没错。
Right.
总之，我觉得保罗的表现令人印象深刻。
Anyways, I thought Paolo was incredibly impressive.
嗯，我
Well, I
要说的是。
will say this.
业务确实很出色。
Business is really impressive.
我曾在公开场合对Tether提出严厉批评，他们作为企业确实面临过诸多挑战。
I have been super critical of Tether publicly, and they had a lot of challenges as a business.
他们在许多市场被禁止。
They were banned in many markets.
他们没有进行任何审计。
They didn't do any audits.
人们不知道里面有什么。
People didn't know what was in there.
他们在清理这些问题上做得非常出色。
They've done an incredible job cleaning all that up.
现在他们正开始从认证转向审计，并且迫切希望在美国合法化。
Now they are starting to do going from attestations to audits, and they desperately want to be legal in America.
在那项立法中，他们有三年的时间来实现这一目标，之后他们必须解除在纽约和加拿大等地被禁止运营的状态限制。
In that legislation, they have three years to do it, and they have to then unwind being banned in New York, banned in Canada, all
这些地方就像粉丝一样。
these places like a fan.
给你一个提议。
Have an offer for you.
好的。
Okay.
也就是
Which is
我只想说，让我先说完我的想法。
I just wanna say let let me finish my thought for a second.
我想给大卫·萨克斯点赞。
I just wanna give credit to David Sacks.
我们在拜登政府下看到的反加密立场，以及特朗普在首个任期内同样反加密的政策。
What we saw under Biden and what we saw with the anti crypto approach that they took, and and Trump in his first presidency was anti crypto as well.
那十年的反加密导致很多人转向离岸操作，像Tether这样的把戏层出不穷。
That decade of anti crypto led to a lot of people doing offshore stuff like Tether, a lot of shenanigans.
实际上，本周无法到场的萨克斯已经建立了一个框架，帮助人们以正确方式行事，消除了所有这些问题。
And, actually, Sacks, who who can't make it this weekend, he has now created a framework which is helping people do it the right way and taking out all of these questions.
是的。
Yeah.
而Tethr就是第一个例子。
And and Tethr is example one.
他们参与了人类...泰达币一直是各种交易的默认选择
They were involved in human the the tethers have been the default for all kinds of
你确定这是事实吗？
Do you know that for sure?
这在我们国会听证会上已有记录。
This has been in our congressional hearings.
证据非常明确。
Have documented very clear.
在不确定的情况下不要妄下断言。
Not make the accusation if we don't know.
我昨天看到的是一位极其可信且深思熟虑的企业家
What I saw yesterday was a very, very, very credible and thoughtful entrepreneur
是啊。
Yeah.
而且生意做得很大。
And a great business.
另外，抱歉，我想说的是我想邀请你一月份和我一起参加Tether会议。
The other thing, sorry, that I'll say is I would like to invite you to come with me to the Tether conference at the January.
好的。
Okay.
我们要去
We are going
哦，你拒绝了一个邀请。
to Oh, you've turned down an invitation.
开始了。
Here we go.
听着，我们接下来要这么做。
Here we Here's what we're gonna do.
我们接下来要这么做。
Here's what we're gonna do.
我们将一起飞往萨尔瓦多。
We're gonna fly together to El Salvador.
我们要去
We're going to
搞定萨尔瓦多。
do El Salvador.
我们要
Are we
去参观监狱吗？
gonna do a tour of the prisons?
不。
No.
不。
No.
我们将...我们将与布克尔进行一次访谈。
We're we're gonna we're gonna do a we're gonna do an interview with Bukele.
好的。
Okay.
然后我们会采访保罗，之后我们就飞回家。
And then we're gonna do an interview with Paulo, and then we'll fly home.
你能跟我一起去吗？
Can Will you come with me?
如果我能随意提问的话，想问什么都可以。
If I can ask him any question I want Ask any question.
你得去看看那座监狱。
You have to go check out the prison.
有人告诉我...有人告诉我...
I've been told I've been told you I'm
第一次旅行我绝不会靠近埃尔卡特。
not going anywhere near Erkat that
第一次行程。
the first trip.
第二次行程你去ERCOT。
You go to ERCOT the second trip.
我不想靠近那座监狱，但如果我能问他任何问题，而且他愿意回答的话，那可以。
I don't wanna go anywhere near that prison, but if I can ask him any question, and he'll be fine with it, yes.
太好了，
Great,
老兄。
dude.
是啊。
Yeah.
我很乐意去。
I'm happy I'm happy to go.
没错。
Yeah.
当然。
Of course.
换作其他任何地方，他都会在硅谷做着同样的事情。
In any other world, he would have been in Silicon Valley doing the same thing.
总之是5000亿美元的一半
Anyway Half $1,000,000,000,000
他们将面临的另一个挑战是当利率下降时，这些企业也必须应对这个问题。
The other challenge they're gonna have is when interest rates go down, these businesses are gonna have to figure that out as well.
但流通中的USDT有1830亿美元，这是当前的股票代码。
But a $183,000,000,000 in circulating USDT, that's a ticker symbol right now.
其中1350亿美元是国债，另外还有大约100亿美元的比特币和黄金。
A 135,000,000,000 of that's in treasuries, and then another like 10,000,000,000 in Bitcoin and gold.
还有土地。
And land.
嗯，这意味着他们能获得大约5%的收益。
And well, and that means they're throwing off whatever 5%.
仅靠持有的资产，他们一年就能赚780亿美元。
They were making $78,000,000,000 a year just on the holdings.
不会告诉你具体细节，但我从未见过这样的生意。
Not gonna tell you what the details are, but I've never seen a business like that.
不。
No.
他们说市值是5000亿，坊间传闻是5000亿美元市值，这大约是它们市销率的50倍。
They said it's a 500 the word on the street is a $500,000,000,000 market cap, which would be roughly 50 times their price to sales ratio.
让我换个说法，他们正在赚取100亿。
Let me say a different They're making 10,000,000,000.
你认为他们的利润率还能更高吗？
What's more do you think their profit margins are?
别管增长量了。
Forget the growth quantum.
所以哦，你只需要
So Oh, you only need a
100个人来运营这个业务。
100 people to run the business.
是的。
Yeah.
如果利息就是收入，那这大概是个70%利润率的生意。
If the interest is the revenue, it's probably 70% margin business.
高达95%以上。
Upwards of more than 95%.
这完全说得通，因为你想想看，需要多少人——
It makes total sense because you I mean, how many people
昨晚吃饭时还在想？
thought last night at dinner?
我们在这儿拼命干，就为了争个第三第四名
Here we are grinding away, trying to get to third, fourth
给我
Get me
开始吧。
started.
百分比。
Percent.
我们有很多这样的
It's so many of our
业务。
businesses.
开始。
Started.
然后我，他就说，是啊。
And I and he's like, yeah.
是啊。
Yeah.
这太不可思议了。
It's incredible.
我，这太不可思议了。
I it's incredible.
这个
The the
为他高兴。
Good for him.
恭喜。
Congratulations.
恭喜。
Congratulations.
是。
Is.
不过有个金融理论认为，像这样的高利润业务更容易招致竞争。
There's there's a there's a financial theory though that high margin businesses like that invite competition more.
但竞争恰恰是在这里被消磨殆尽的。
But that's literally where competition gets ground down.
Stripe收购了一家稳定币提供商。
Stripe bought the, like, a stablecoin provider.
这是众所周知的。
It's pretty well known.
Stripe、Visa，每家公司都会有自己的稳定币。
Stripe, Visa, everybody's gonna have their own stablecoin.
所以Tether将无法独占市场，显然Jeremy Lehrer和Circle是非常有潜力的。遗憾的是，利润
So Tether will not have the market all to themselves, and obviously, Jeremy Lehrer and Circle is a very viable Unfortunately, margin
像那样只有一个发展方向。
like that's only got one direction to go.
没错。
So Correct.
是的。
Yeah.
如果好的。
And if the Alright.
我们来谈谈这个。
Let's talk about it.
是的。
Yeah.
如果利率下降——这个我们稍后也会讨论——那将是整个行业的逆风。
And if the margin if the interest rates go down, which is we'll talk about that as well.
这将成为整个领域的阻力。
That's gonna be headwinds for that whole space.
好吧。
Alright.
我们刚才在讨论布拉德·格斯特纳个人决定引爆AI泡沫进而摧毁股市的事。
We've been talking a bit about the about Brad Gerstner personally deciding to blow up the AI bubble and then destroying the stock market.
开个玩笑。
I'm joking.
向布拉德·格斯特纳致敬。
Shout out to Brad Gerstner.
天啊。
My gosh.
这次做空比特币真是赚翻了。
This short Bitcoin thing has been a bonanza.
哦，真的吗？
Oh, really?
哇。
Wow.
是啊。
Yeah.
跌破90了吗？
Is it below 90?
确实跌破了。
It is.
对吧？
Right?
就像是
It's like
80我知道它触及了88左右，但我的意思是，
80 I know it hit 88 or something, but I mean,
小心下方。
watch out below.
让我们看看价格。
Let's see the price.
小心下方。
Watch out below.
好的。
Okay.
我们来谈谈英伟达吧。
Let's talk about NVIDIA.
英伟达业绩爆表，收入同比增长62%，环比增长22%，净利润319亿。
So NVIDIA had a blowout quarter, revenue up 62% year over year, 22% quarter over quarter, net income 31,900,000,000.0.
同比增长65%。
That's up 65% year over year.
他们预计本季度将达到650亿美元。
They expect 65,000,000,000 this quarter.
播客之友Jensen表示，他们的产品供不应求。
Jensen, friend of the pod, has said that they can't keep their product on the shelves.
到处都卖光了。
It's sold out everywhere.
与此同时，做空该股的Michael Burry一直在搅局。
And then at the same time, Michael Burry, who has got the short on it, he's been mixing it up.
他发帖回应，我想是针对你上周为这些新芯片组合理使用寿命辩护的言论，就是NVIDIA销售的H100。
He is posting in response, I think, to you, Freebird, last week making it a defense of the the reasonable life of an h 100 of these new chipsets, you know, that NVIDIA sells.
是四年、五年、六年还是七年？
Is it four years, five years, six years, seven years?
它们什么时候会被淘汰？
When do they get replaced?
它们的使用寿命有多长？
When do they have a useful life?
终结缺口会计
End gap accounting.
为了让观众更容易理解，他认为大型科技公司正在做假账以虚增盈利，这就像纸牌屋一样脆弱。他打算做空Palantir，因为其市销率高达100比1，同时也会做空英伟达等公司，理由是折旧问题。
He believes, just to make it, easy for the audience to understand, that major tech companies, big tech, are cooking the books in order to spike their earnings, that this is a house of cards, and that he's gonna short, Palantir because it's a 100 to one sales price to sales ratio, but he's going to also, know, short Nvidia, etcetera because of the depreciation.
你怎么看？
What's your thoughts?
我知道你看到过他的评论，弗里德伯格。
I know you've seen his comments, Friedberg.
我下载了缺口折旧规则
I downloaded the gap depreciation rules.
我本来打算播放会计角主题曲，顺便说一句这是上周一位粉丝发给我的
I was gonna play accounting corner jingle, which a fan by the way sent me over the week.
哦，太棒了
Oh, great.
超级有趣
Super fun.
我能连上网吗？
Can I get the internet working?
哦，在这里。
Oh, here it is.
那我想听听看。
Wanna hear it then.
还有折旧和往返交易。
Depreciation and round trips too.
我们来谈谈一些未实现收入。
Let's talk about some unearned revenue.
削尖你们的铅笔，让我看看你们有什么本事。
Sharpen your pencils, let's see what you got.
这里是会计角落，艾基杏仁派。
It's accounting corner, Ecky almond pie.
做得非常漂亮。
Very nicely done.
谢谢。
Thank you.
感谢您加入会计角落，也感谢罗克珊娜·马丁内斯带来那首精彩的广告歌。
Thank you for joining me here at accounting corner, and thank you to Roxanna Martinez for that incredible jingle.
我认为我们应该采用它。
I think we should adopt it.
太喜欢了。
Love it.
太喜欢了。
Love it.
大家快把你们的广告歌发过来吧。
Send in your jingles, folks.
杰森·阿普尔顿点规则。
Jason Appleton dot rules.
会计准则，360度全方位。
Accounting standards, three sixty.
我们开始吧。
Here we go.
折旧必须反映资产预估的使用寿命，而非市场创新。
Depreciation must reflect the ass assets estimated useful life, not market innovation.
具体措辞。
The specific language.
能
Can
你今晚11:30给我们打电话哄我们睡觉吗？
you call us at 11:30 tonight and put us to bed?
好的。
Okay.
哇。
Wow.
这是
This is
你找到了你找到了一个
you found you found a
比科学角更无聊的角落。
corner even more boring than science corner.
得了吧。
Come on.
人们可爱会计角了。
People love accounting corner.
不。
No.
不。
No.
我解释过
I explained
因为它确实如此。
it because yes.
这实际上很重要。
Is actually important.
根据GAAP准则，即通用会计准则标准。
Under the GAAP standards, the general accepted accounting principle standards.
所以你需要设定一个使用寿命，并在重新评估资产实际使用情况时重置该期限，而不仅仅是因为有更高价值的替代资产。
So you set a useful life and you reset that useful life as you do a reassessment on when you're actually using that asset, not necessarily if there's a better asset that makes more value.
让我们再解释一遍这个过程。
So let's just explain this again.
你在不动产、厂房和设备（PP&E）上进行了大额投资。
You make a big investment in property plant equipment, PP and E.
这笔投资需要在你作为会计师预估的资产使用寿命期间逐年摊销。
And that investment, you write down over a period of time that you as an accountant estimate to be the useful life of that asset.
比如一栋建筑预计使用20年，那么每年就计提其成本的二十分之一。
So if you're gonna use a building for twenty years, every year you write down the cost of that building by one twentieth.
你不能在第一年就全额计提折旧。
You don't get to write it all down in the first year.
事实上，巴里所主张的是，如果你在第一年就全部冲销，你的利润会下降，企业状况看起来会更糟。
In fact, what Burry is arguing is that if you wrote it all down in the first year, your profit would go down and your business would look worse.
所以当你进行一项可以长期使用的投资时，与薪酬不同——当你支付某人薪酬时，你是在为他们当季或当年工作的工时付费。
So when you make an investment that you can use over a period of time, unlike salary, when you pay someone a salary, you're paying them for the hours they're working that quarter, that year.
是的。
Yeah.
所以那笔钱就是一项费用。
And so that money is an expense.
它会在该期间被确认为已支付。
It gets recognized as paid out that that period.
但当你投资于一栋建筑或一件将长期使用的设备时，你需要对其进行折旧。
But when you make an investment in a building or a piece of equipment that you're gonna use over time You depreciate it.
是的。
Yes.
再重复一遍这个原则：你需要对其进行折旧。
You depreciate it just to go through that principle again.
因此，GAAP中有关于如何确定折旧时间表和使用寿命的标准。
And so there's standards in GAP on how do you recognize the depreciation schedule, what's the useful life.
使用寿命是指你实际从该资产中获得回报价值的时期。
And the useful life is when you're actually realizing return value from that asset.
巴里在推特上的观点是错误的，他说。
Burry's point is incorrect on Twitter, he said.
认为使用寿命折旧期更长，因为三到四年前的芯片已经完全入账，这种观点将物理利用与价值创造混为一谈了。
The idea of a useful life depreciation being longer because chips from more than three to four years ago are fully booked confuses physical utilization with value creation.
这是错误的。
That is incorrect.
存在价值创造，因为他们今年（六年后）正从这些芯片中产生收入。
There is value creation because they are generating revenue from those chips this year, six years later.
事实上，这款芯片的有效使用寿命确实已延续至第六年。
So there is in fact a useful useful life for that chip that has extended into year six.
现在让我来说——所以这并不重要，而这正是我想提出的GAP观点的一部分。
Now let me And so it doesn't matter and this is a part of the gap point that I wanted to bring up.
所以他主张应该在三年内进行折旧，这意味着每年成本翻倍，三年内全部摊销完毕。
So what he's arguing is you should depreciate it over say three years, which means you're doubling the cost every year and that it's all written off in three years.
但举个例子，如果谷歌这么做，他们的总净利润将下降约10%到12%。
But if you did that, to give you a point of example, in Google's case, their total net profit would come down by roughly 10 to 12%.
所以他们并不是在造假账，通过这种方式虚增巨额利润。
So it's not like they're cooking the books and recognizing some massive delta in their profit by doing this.
三年和六年折旧期的差异约占他们利润的12%，而这些芯片仍在继续使用。
The difference between three and six years is roughly 12% of their profit and they're still using these chips.
GAP规定只有当新资产（即新芯片）取代旧资产时，旧资产剩余使用寿命才需加速折旧。或者维护成本激增（需要花钱维修资产，但芯片不存在这种情况）。
And what Gap says is that only if the new asset, meaning the new chips, replaces the old one, then the old assets remaining useful life has to be marked down and you take accelerated depreciation So that Or if the maintenance costs spike, which mean you have to spend money to fix the asset, which is not the case with chips.
第三种情况是当吞吐量需求超出旧设备能力，迫使提前退役。
The third is if the throughput requirements exceed the old equipment capabilities forcing early retirement.
他们并没有淘汰这些芯片。
They're not retiring.
旧芯片仍在持续产生收入。
They're still making revenue off the old chips.
或者如果技术过时意味着你要将其出售，那么你可以在一段时间后停止使用它
Or if technological obsolescence means that you're putting it up for sale, then you can meaning you stop using it after a period
的 如果
of If
你把它挂出
you put it up
出售，你实际上会知道它的市场价值。
for sale, you would actually know the market value of it.
你可以从
You could take that
折旧中扣除。
from the depreciation.
这几乎是教科书般的差距，即如果你在六年后仍在使用该资产，你可以按六年折旧。
Is almost textbook gap, which is that if you're still using the asset after six years, you can depreciate it over six years.
或其他
Or whatever
这次对话缺乏技术素养。
this conversation lacks technical literacy.
假设你是谷歌公司，我们可以说一个输出令牌相当于一个链接。
So let's assume you're Google, and let's just say that the equivalent of an output token was the equivalent of a link.
对。
Right.
你首先会告诉我：嘿，H。
The first thing you would tell me is, hey, H.
注意，并非所有链接都是等价的。
Math, not all links are made equal.
对吧？
Right?
举个例子，如果你生成一个制药药品的链接，谷歌对每次点击的收费与生成一个指向亚马逊购买牙膏的链接大不相同。
So for example, if you generate a link for a pharmaceutical drug, Google charges a price per click that's way different than the link that they generate that goes to Amazon to buy toothpaste.
对吧？
Right?
但对亚马逊来说，生成这个链接的成本实际上是相同的。
Now for Amazon, it actually costs the same amount of money to generate that link.
对谷歌而言。
For Google.
抱歉。
Sorry.
对吧？
Right?
我认为他需要明白的是，他把这个等同于能量，但实际上在AI模型中，我们关心的是那个输出token的价值。
I think the thing that he needs to understand is he's equating this to energy, but the reality is that in AI models, the thing that we care about is what is that output token?
它产生了多少收益？
What is the revenue that's being generated?
没错。
That's right.
这个输出token产生了多少收益？
What is the revenue that's being generated by the output token?
归根结底，他没有意识到的是，显然谷歌、Facebook、微软、OpenAI和X这些公司不会为了生成负收益的输出令牌而自找麻烦。
And, ultimately, what he doesn't appreciate is that, obviously, Google and Facebook and Microsoft and OpenAI and X are not gonna be in the business of generating negative revenue output tokens just for the sake of it.
你怎么知道？
How do you know that?
我妻子这周把互联网都刷到底了。
My wife got to the end of the Internet this week.
她打开了X，开启了语音模式。
She launched X, put it on voice mode.
她堵在从我们家到圣马特奥再返回的路上。
She was stuck in traffic going from our house all the way to San Mateo and back.
那大概就十分钟路程。
That's like ten minutes.
而她...不。
And she no.
不。
No.
单程要二十五分钟。
It's twenty five minutes up.
好吧。
Okay.
回程也要二十五分钟。
Twenty five minutes back.
然后她说，嘿。
And she said, hey.
你知道吗？
You know what?
我的token用完了。
I ran out of tokens.
就像系统提示的，你不能再使用了
Like, it said, you can't use it anymore
哦，你是指Grok上的限制吗？
Oh, on Grok, you mean?
是的。
Yeah.
是的。
Yeah.
是的。
Yeah.
他们为什么要这么做？
Why do they do that?
因为他们非常清楚存在一定的能源输出，有一定的收益潜力，超过这个限度就开始设限了。
It's because they are very conscious of there's a certain energy output, there's a certain revenue potential, and then beyond this, they start to gate it.
是啊。
Yeah.
是啊。
Yeah.
你在OpenAI上也这样。
You do it on OpenAI.
你们在所有这些东西上都这么干。
You do it on all these things.
所以他们早已敏锐意识到这些输出token的价值。
So they are already keenly aware of the value of these output tokens.
他们清楚这能带来多少收入。
They know the revenue it's generating.
抱歉。
Sorry.
就一件事。
Just one thing.
对。
Yeah.
第二件事是，在这些组织的底层，所有人都彻底重构了解码器的基础架构。
And then the second thing is, in the bowels of these organizations, everybody has completely rebuilt all of the decoder infrastructure.
这是什么意思？
What does that mean?
在信息到达你——用户之前，人们在模型内部、模型前后进行了各种不同的操作，所有这些环节都已被重构。
Before something gets to you, the user, there's all kinds of different manipulations that people are doing in the models, after the models, before the models, and all of that stuff has been rebuilt.
所以我认为他需要明白的是：
So I think what he needs to understand look.
公平地说，我想说的是Gap公司需要认识到，那些法律制定时针对的是工厂环境。
In fairness to him, what I would say what Gap needs to appreciate is when when those laws were written, it's for a factory.
那是为涡轮机设计的，是静态的。
It's for a turbine, and it's a static thing.
它可能很难真正理解芯片的世界。
It probably doesn't do a very good job of understanding the world of chips.
但他能不能稍微花点精力打个电话，真正了解下这个运作机制？
But could he take a little bit of effort to call somebody and actually learn how this works?
能。
Yes.
他有在这样做吗？
Is he doing doing it?
没有。
No.
所以呢
So there
对啊。
you Yeah.
我是说，我觉得等等。
Mean, I think Hold on.
我认为你刚才说的最重要一点是，Chamath，这是一种新资产，也是一个新领域。
I think the the most important point of what you said there is, Chamath, this is a new asset and it's a new space.
可能有些公司会说，我们愿意在这上面亏钱，让你们去开发，比如Sora视频之类的。
There might be some companies that are like, we're gonna lose money on this and we're gonna let you build, I don't know, Sora videos.
对吧？
Right?
未来五年这都会是个亏钱项目，直到我们把ChatGPT用户做到20亿。
And that's just gonna be a money loser for five years as we get ChatGPT to 2,000,000,000 users.
我们不在乎这个。
We don't care about it.
这些机器在前三年的利用率将达到90%。
And those machines are going to have 90% of their utilization in the first three years.
然后在接下来的七年里，它们的价值将只有10%。
And then for the next seven years, it'll be, you know, 10% of their value.
它们会在后台处理一些不太重要的小任务。
They'll be doing some small jobs in the background that won't be as important.
会计体系不是为这种精细的折旧时间表设计的。
Accounting isn't built to do this kind of refined depreciation schedule.
你是说
Do mean
你说的90%利用率是什么意思？
what do you mean 90% of their utilization?
因为如果它们仍在制造
Because if they're still making
对消费者的价值。
value to the consumer.
所以理论上如果你思考那台H100的价值，用户从中获得了什么价值？
So that if you theoretically think about the value of that h 100, what value did the users get out of it?
现在的价值就像我在制作毫无收益的滑稽视频。
Well, the value today is like I'm making goofy, sore videos that generate no revenue.
完全是在亏钱。
It's all money losing.
但从长远来看，这可能成为广告并产生一定数量的点击。
But down the road, that might actually be, you know, advertising and it might create certain number of clicks.
可能会带来一定数量的订阅用户。
It might create some number of subscriptions.
我们最终将能够为其建立收入。
We'll actually be able to attribute revenue to it.
目前无法通过这些设备判断前两年与未来几年实际产生收益的比例。
There's no way to look at these devices right now and to know, you know, how much of them are actually generating revenue in the first two years versus the next few years.
我认为我们现在比半年前更清楚如何评估一个输出令牌的价值。
I think we know now much more than we did even six months ago How do you how to value an output token.
那么我们应该给会计界什么样的指导原则来处理这个问题？
And then what is the what is the instructions we give to the accounting community on how to deal with that?
老兄，这没那么复杂。
Dude, this is not that complicated.
过去曾有人试图改变直线折旧法，但关于利用率的问题，我认为你的观点未必正确。
In the past, there have been efforts to try and change straight line depreciation, but your point of utilization, I don't think it's necessarily the correct one.
如果他们在第四年、第五年、第六年仍能通过那块芯片创造收入
If they're still making revenue on that chip every year, year four, year five, year six
是啊。
Yeah.
所以即使他们还在使用那一美元
So even if they're still using it dollar
或者仍在为他们创造收入。
a or still generating revenue for them.
我认为要记住，电力成本和运营数据中心的成本是持续的。
And I think that the remember, the cost of electricity and the cost of running the data center The sustain.
它仍然，或者说，在那个期间仍然是一项支出。
Is still or, like, it's still an expense in that period.
所有这些都会显示为运营费用。
So all of that shows up as an operating expense.
所以如果它产生负利润、负毛利润，市场会看到这一点。
So if it's generating negative profit, negative gross profit, the market sees that.
我还要说一点我认为非常重要的事。
And I will say one more thing that I think is really important.
而他们会把它关掉。
And they would turn it off.
差距标准。
Gap standards.
他们会容忍它
They'll tolerate it to
到了那个点，他们就会停止。
the point, and then they'll stop.
你看看。
You get look.
这里没有任何隐藏信息。
There's no hidden information here.
巴里暗示他们在做假账或隐藏会计信息是完全错误的，因为所有会计信息都在现金流量表和资产负债表上清晰可见。
Burry's implication that they are cooking the books or hiding accounting is completely false because all of the accounting is apparent in the cash flow statement and in the balance sheet.
记住，公司有三张财务报表：利润表、资产负债表和现金流量表。
Remember, companies have three financial statements, an income statement, a balance balance sheet, and a cash flow statement.
现金流量表将利润表与资产负债表进行勾稽，建立联系，并展示公司所有现金的流入和流出情况。
The cash flow statement reconciles the income statement, the balance sheet, makes the the linkage, and it shows you all the cash that's going in and out of the company.
许多聪明的分析师和认真研究的投资者会查看现金流量表，他们会看到资本支出。
And many analysts and many investors that are intelligent and do their homework will look at the cash flow statement, and they will see the CapEx.
他们会看到所有投资支出，并计算一个通常称为自由现金流的数字，这能让他们估算企业在特定时期的真实现金生成能力，从而判断应该用自由现金流还是按GAAP标准的EBITDA来估值，投资者有权选择他们想要的公司估值方式。
They will see all the investments going out, and they will calculate a number typically called free cash flow that will allow them to estimate the true cash generation of the business in a particular period and make an assessment of should they be valued on free cash flow or should they be valued on the GAAP standard of EBITDA and the investor has the choice on how they wanna value the company.
巴里认为他们在隐瞒什么是错误的，因为一切都明摆在那里。
And Burry is incorrect in thinking that they're hiding anything because it's all there.
他们遵循GAAP准则，然后由投资者形成市场。
They're following GAAP standards, and then investors make a market.
他们都决定：我想用什么标准来评估这家公司？
And they all decide what do I wanna value this company on?
现金流还是EBITDA。
Cash flow, EBITDA.
让他们选择，然后市场会决定价格。
Let them choose and then the market sets the price.
我觉得我们给这家伙太多发言时间了。
I think we've given this guy way too much airtime.
他并不擅长他所做的事。
He's not very good at what he does.
我是说...抱歉，但就像...
I mean I mean, I'm sorry, but like
上节目吧，巴里。
Come on the program, Barry.
我们很想深入探讨一下。
We'd we'd love to double click on it.
互联网上还有别的什么人你想随便拉来聊聊吗？
Is there any other random person out there in the Internet you wanna take?
我是说，干脆用个魔法八球来随机生成数字和名字算了。
Let's just I mean Use a magic eight ball to, like, generate numbers and names.
我认为有很多人高度评价他的分析。
I would say that there's a lot of people who think highly of his analysis.
意思是他们是对的而且
Mean they're right and
当然不是。
doesn't Of course.
意思是但我觉得这可能是个好
Mean But I think it could be a good
对话。
conversation.
你知道我们播客上还从没邀请过谁吗？
You know who we've never had on the pod?
斯坦·德鲁肯米勒。
Stan Druckenmiller.
在邀请迈克尔·布鲁克斯之前，我们先请德鲁克吧。
Let's get Druck before we get Michael Brooks.
两个都请啊。
Have both of them.
我是说，为什么要做选择呢？
I mean, why are we choosing here?
好吧。
Okay.
谷歌发布了Gemini三号。
Google released Gemini three.
它相当出色。
It's pretty great.
他们在大多数基准测试中重新夺回了领先地位。
They regained the lead on most of the benchmarks.
Polymarket目前显示谷歌有89%的概率在今年成为顶级大语言模型，而所有关于谷歌搜索业务将被ChatGPT彻底摧毁的猜测都被证明是不成立的——至少今年他们的搜索量和收入都在增长。
Polymarket now has Google at 89% to finish the year as the top LLM, and all the speculation that Google was going to have their search franchise absolutely slaughtered by ChetGPT has turned out to not be true, at least not this year with their searches going up, revenue going up.
但最引人关注的是关于Gemini三仅使用谷歌TPU而非英伟达GPU进行训练的猜测。
But the big story is speculation around Gemini three being trained only on Google's TPUs, not NVIDIA's GPUs.
你怎么看，Chamath？
Your thoughts, Chamath?
我认为TPU是个了不起的产品。
I think TPU is an incredible product.
我可能有偏见，但我觉得它的架构非常出色。
I'm biased, but I think it's an incredible architecture.
这次最新迭代意义深远，但我认为我们正快速见证解码芯片市场将出现高度碎片化的局面。
This latest spin is very profound, but I also think that what we are quickly seeing is that there's going to be a highly fragmented layer of decoding chips that exist in the marketplace.
Grok是其中之一。
Grok is one.
TPU也是其中之一。
TPU is one.
微软有自己的方案。
Microsoft has a spin.
亚马逊有Inferentia。
Amazon has Inferentia.
Facebook显然也在自研芯片。
Facebook, I think, is apparently spinning up their own silicon.
我们很快就能看到解码芯片的分散化。
So we're going to get to disaggregated decode pretty quickly.
问题是谁会胜出？
The question is who will win?
届时将会出现多种不同的解决方案。
There will be a bunch of different solutions.
我认为谷歌令人难以置信的地方在于——不知道你是否看过数据——他们上个月在整个聊天市场的份额从8%增长到了16%。
I think what's incredible about Google is I don't know if you saw the stats, but they went from, like, 8% share to, like, 16% share of the entire chat market as of, like, this last month.
这是个惊人的数据。
That's an incredible stat.
在企业端，Anthropic的表现简直势不可挡。
On the enterprise side, Anthropic is just absolutely crushing.
那么我们看到了什么？
So what are we seeing?
我们看到一个新兴市场正在形成。
We're seeing a nascent market get created.
我们看到流量分配基本上让一家公司独领风骚。
We saw an allocation of traffic that basically favored one company over everyone.
而现在我们开始看到所有这些不同市场中的分类器正在发挥筛选功能。
And now we're starting to see a sorting function in a classifier in all of these different markets.
这就像是在分崩离析。
It's like breaking apart.
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