谷歌的AI人才流失、SpaceX的强劲季度表现、Airtable暴跌90%、美国数据助力中国AI发展

现在来对比一下，摩根士丹利对2030年的营收预测是3250亿美元，这同样非常惊人。

Now to just put that in perspective, Morgan Stanley's 2030 revenue estimate is 325,000,000,000, which is also extraordinary.

别忘了，这家公司去年的营收是180亿美元。

Remember, this company did 18,000,000,000 in revenue last year.

所以不管你是看摩根士丹利的数据还是马斯克的数据，很明显，市场并没有把这些考虑进去。

So whether you're taking Morgan Stanley's numbers or Elon's numbers, clearly, the market is not pricing that in.

在2万亿美元的时候，我们提前几年就定价了。

At 2,000,000,000,000, we were pricing ahead a couple years.

我觉得现在，你知道，这个价值反映的是我们目前的情况。

I think now it's you know, the the value reflects kind of where we are.

市场对几件事有疑问。

The market has questions about a few things.

具体来说是这样的。

Here's what they are.

第一，关于租赁业务，也就是算力租赁业务。

Number one, on the rental business, the rental of compute business.

他把一大块算力租给了Anthropic。

He rented out a huge block of compute to Anthropic.

这就是我们一直在讨论的问题。

It's the question that we've been talking about here.

你是打算用这些算力来构建自己的前沿模型，还是打算把它租出去？

Are you gonna use the compute to build your own frontier model, or are you going to rent it out?

如果租出去，你能找到那些有资金来承接这些算力的人吗？

And if you rent it out, are you going to be able to find those people who have the capital to off take that compute?

他说的数字非常庞大，10到20吉瓦，人们都在想他们怎么才能负担得起。

He's talking enormous numbers, 10 to 20 gigs, and people are wondering how they're going to be able to finance that.

而且记住，这些GPU租赁业务往往以非常低的倍数交易。

And remember, those businesses, the GPU rental businesses, tend to trade at very low multiples.

看看CoreWeave之类的公司。

Look at CoreWeave, etcetera.

至于前沿模型业务，我觉得这才是隐藏的赢家。

On the frontier model business, I think this is the sleeper.

我记得他在电话会议上说，Grok 在七月份的令牌量翻了三倍。

I think he said on the call that Grok tripled tokens in the month of July.

这还不包括 Cursor。

That doesn't include Cursor.

Cursor 本来就已经在朝着年底从 30 亿增长到 100 亿的目标前进了。

Cursor was already on a path to go from 3,000,000,000 to 10,000,000,000 by the end of the year.

到年底，Cursor 加上 Grok 可能达到 100 到 200 亿。

Cursor plus Grok could be at 10 to 20,000,000,000 by the end of the year.

那将是一项极其宝贵的资产，其估值倍数会比数据中心业务高得多。

That would be an extraordinarily valuable asset gonna trade at a much higher multiple than the data center business.

而且，当然，我们还没谈到 Starlink 以及他打算做什么，我觉得他会在移动领域大展拳脚。

And then, of course, we haven't even talked about Starlink and what he's going to do, you know, I think gonna run the table on mobile.

所以这就是正常的整合过程。

So this is the normal consolidation.

硅谷各地都有基金在分发他们的股份。

We have funds like across Silicon Valley that are distributing their shares.

股价稍微跌了一点。

The stock has traded down a bit.

这对我来说没什么好意外的。

Nothing surprising to me here.

现在关键就看执行能力了。

Now it's all about execution.

我觉得最值得关注的两件事，第一就是Grok和Cursor的营收到年底会是个什么水平？

I think the most important thing to watch the two most important things to watch are number one, how do the Grok and Cursor revenues end the year?

第二点，你知道的，就是他们在用星链逐步取代传统移动运营商方面取得的进展。

And number two, you know, the traction they get on, you know, continuing to replace traditional mobile carriers with Starlink.

分发应该是今天或者昨天开始的。

The distribution started, I think, today or yesterday.

我刚从我投的一个基金那里收到了第一次分红。

I got my first distribution from a fund I'm in.

我投了几个涉及SpaceX的基金。

I'm in a couple of funds that are in SpaceX.

看起来大家都参与了。

Seems like everybody's in that.

如果你是想套现并且长期持有的人，那显然会有下行压力，但我是为我的孙子孙女们持有的。

And that will obviously create downward pressure if you are amongst the people who wanna cash out and been in it for a long time, but I'm holding these for my grandkids.

萨克斯，你对这些惊人的结果怎么看？这些结果来自一个九个月前还不属于SpaceX业务的领域。

Sacks, your take on these spectacular, yeah, I guess is the only way to describe them, results coming from a vertical that wasn't part of SpaceX's business but nine months ago.

对。

Yeah.

你看。

Look.

我觉得这次财报电话会议非常乐观。

I thought it was a very bullish earnings call.

我有点惊讶财报后股价下跌，因为不仅业绩超预期并上调了指引，而且我觉得埃隆也谈了很多他们的计划。

I was a little bit surprised that the stock went down after the earnings call because not only was it a beat and raise, but also I think Elon spoke to a lot of their plans.

我想补充布拉德说的关于星舰的一点。

The only thing I would add to to what Brad said was around Starship.

马斯克基本上说了，我们都看到了，对吧，星舰的试飞成功了。

Elon basically said we all saw it, right, that the Starship test flight was successful.

星舰在海面上漂浮着。

The Starship's floating in the ocean.

隔热罩也起作用了。

The heat shield worked.

这会让我们现在能以更快的速度进行更多星舰飞行。

That's gonna enable more flights of Starship now at a more accelerated rate.

这为V3卫星铺平了道路，它能给星链网络提供更多带宽，进而支撑整个直连手机的业务。

That paves the way for the v three satellite, which enables much more bandwidth for the Starlink network, which then powers the whole direct to cell play.

所以这部分就搞定了。

So you had that piece of it.

我是说，整个电信方面的进展看起来都很顺利，他们对此非常乐观。

I mean, just the whole telecom aspect seemed very on track and they're very bullish about that.

然后还有整个AI数据中心这块。

And then you've got the whole AI data center play.

关于数据中心，我想他们说的是，预计到年底，计算能力会从1.4吉瓦增加到大约2吉瓦。

Now on the data centers, I think what they said is that they expected to go from 1.4 gigawatts of compute to about two by the end of the year.

埃隆说，计算能力的现货价格在每瓦30到50美元之间。

And Elon said that the spot price for computes in the $30 to $50 per watt range.

所以，你知道，你自己算算。

So, you know, you do the math.

一吉瓦等于十亿瓦，所以每瓦30到50美元就意味着每吉瓦300亿到500亿美元。

A gigawatt is a billion watts, so 30 to $50 per watt means 30 to 50,000,000,000 per gigawatt.

我觉得他们现在正处于这个范围的高端。

And I think they're at the high end of that range right now.

所以当埃隆说，看，我们年底会达到1000亿美元的年经常性收入，你只需要相信他们有两吉瓦的计算能力，每瓦50美元，就能达到这个目标。

So when Elon says, look, we're gonna end the year at a 100,000,000,000 of ARR, all you have to believe is that they're at two gigawatts of compute running for $50 a watt to hit that.

这还不包括星链、发射业务、Grok光标部分或任何这些。

That doesn't include Starlink or the launch business or the Grok cursor piece or any of these things.

所以我认为这就是他们为什么...

So I think that's why they're

所以你说的就是有很多种赢法，Sacks。

And multiple ways to win is what you're saying, Sacks.

这只股票有很多种赚钱的方式。

There's multiple ways to win with the stock.

我觉得星链简直是个不可思议的赚钱机器。

I think Starlink's just an unbelievable juggernaut cash machine.

你看财务数据，有分部报告，太空、通信和AI。

If you look at the financials, there's segment reports, space, connectivity, and AI.

在通信这边，也就是星链，他们调整后的EBITDA有26亿美元。

And on the connectivity side, the Starlink side, it they generated 2,600,000,000 in adjusted EBITDA.

你可以大概把它看成是经营性现金流。

You can kind of approximate that to be kind of operating cash flow.

太空那边大概是负2亿美元，所以差不多算持平，AI是正11亿美元。

Space was kind of, you know, negative 200,000,000, so call it breakeven, and AI was plus 1,100,000,000.

但AI，正如Brad说的，现在他们算力出租的定价到底是不是暂时的还不清楚，因为市场上算力紧缺，需要算力的人是在付溢价给Elon。

But AI, to Brad's point, it's unclear whether the pricing they're getting on compute rental today is temporary and at a premium because of the lack of compute available in the market today, and people that need compute are paying Elon a premium for that compute.

所以我觉得这还是个未知数。

So I think there's a question mark where that goes.

但星链的互联业务，本季度收入43亿美元，调整后EBITDA为26亿美元。

But the connectivity piece on Starlink, 4,300,000,000 in the quarter and 2,600,000,000 in adjusted EBITDA.

他有1200万订阅用户。

He's got 12,000,000 subscribers.

这比去年同期翻了一番。

That's doubled year over year.

每用户每月ARPU是66美元，也就是用户每月支付的费用。

$66 ARPU per month, what people are paying per month.

而且他环比增长了20%。

And he grew 20% quarter over quarter.

所以如果按这个趋势推算，他差不多要达到年化2400万订阅用户的水平了。

So if you extrapolate this out, he's pretty close to being at a 24,000,000 subscriber run rate.

在这个倍数上，我假设这些企业业务，比如航空和其他领域，会像消费业务一样规模化发展，看起来确实在这样发展。

On this multiple, I'm assuming this enterprise stuff, which is like airlines and other things scale, which they seem to be scaling with the consumer business.

单是星链就可能产生大约400亿美元的收入顶部，其中很大一部分会转化为自由现金流。

Starlink alone could be generating on the order of $40,000,000,000 of revenue top line with a huge amount of that flowing to free cash.

那一年内可能产生300亿美元的自由现金流。

That could be a $30,000,000,000 free cash flow within the year.

仅此一项就提供了为马斯克所做的很多事情提供资金的现金流。

That alone provides the cash flow to fund much of what what Elon's doing.

如果你只给它30倍的倍数，我觉得可以，因为这类订阅业务续费率非常高，客户获取成本很低，我想你大概能给星链业务30倍的倍数。

And if you just put a 30 x multiple on that, which I think you can because these subscription businesses are very high renewal rate, very low CAC, I think you could probably get a 30 x just on the Starlink business.

星链业务单独可能在两年内，甚至十八个月内，达到一万亿美元的市值，算是这样。

The Starlink business alone could be a trillion dollar market cap within two years, within eighteen months, let's say.

我认为，这能支撑所有其他项目，当作科学实验和潜在增长空间。

That, I think, funds all of the rest of this as kind of science projects and upside.

所以我有点在做一个看好的论点。

So I'm kind of making a bull case.

我觉得星链业务表现如此出色真是惊人，你可以从AT&T、Verizon、HughesNet、ViaSat那里看到这一点。

It's crazy to me how well the Starlink business performs, and you can see it in AT and T and Verizon, HughesNet, ViaSat.

我是说，这些公司已经被打得落花流水了。

I mean, these companies have been decimated.

我以前在索诺玛县的牧场上装过休斯网的卫星天线。

I used to have a HughesNet satellite dish on my Sonoma County ranch.

为了上网，我们只能用那个。

In order to get Internet, that's what we had to use.

大概每个月要两百美元左右吧。

It was like, you know, $200 a month or something.

太糟糕了。

Terrible.

因为那些高轨道的。

Because those high.

卫星。

Orbit.

对吧？

Right?

而且它们要花很长时间才能

And they take forever to

服务太差了。

Terrible service.

那个市场被星链彻底打垮了。

And that market got decimated by Starlink.

如果他推出手机直连服务，用户增长会立刻飙升，现在他每季度在消费端增加200万用户。

And if he launches the handset thing, that subscriber growth is gonna go right now, he's adding 2,000,000 subscribers on the consumer side a quarter.

你可能会看到这个数字涨到每季度四到五百万。

You could see that going to four to five million a quarter.

你确实能看到消费者订阅的加速增长。

You could actually see an acceleration in the consumer's subscription.

仅在美国，移动用户就有4亿。

Mobile sub 400,000,000 mobile subs just in The United States.

仅在美国。

Just in The United States.

光靠星链就能讲出看涨的故事。

You can make the bull case on Starlink alone.

然后剩下的部分就是，嘿。

And then the rest of it is like, hey.

埃隆会不会好好利用星链产生的多余资本进行投资？

Is Elon gonna do well with investing the excess capital that's spitting off of Starlink?

埃隆会怎么处理这笔钱？

How's Elon gonna do with that money?

嗯，我不知道还能把这钱交给谁，让他去做星舰、AI计算和Terafab那些事。

Well, I don't know who else I give it to to, like, you know, do what he's doing with Starship and with AI compute and the Terafab.

哦

Oh

天哪。

my god.

这简直是科幻小说。

This is a science fiction

我的意思是，如果你想谈税收的话。

I mean, like, if you wanna county talk about taxes.

美国就能摆脱对台湾和中国在半导体上的依赖。

The US gets off of this dependency with Taiwan and China from semiconductors.

如果马斯克把这些担子扛起来，并且实现他今天展示的愿景，这将成为地球上最伟大的半导体制造基地。

If Elon takes this on his shoulders and he delivers what he's showing as a vision here today, this is gonna be the greatest semiconductor fabrication site on planet Earth.

嗯，你知道，我想说几句，大卫，针对你的观点。

Well, you know, I I would say something, you know, David, to your point.

你知道有多少CEO或创始人会仅仅抓住星链这项业务，它是如此出色的业务，价值万亿美元，还会增长到两万亿美元，而他们不会去承担其他任何风险？

You know how many CEOs or founders would just take that Starlink business, which is such an exceptional business, trillion dollar business going to 2,000,000,000,000, and they would not take any of these other risks?

他们不会去做Terafab。

They would not do Terafab.

他们不会去建设数据中心。

They would not try to build out the data center.

他们不会去开发自己的模型。

They would not try to build their own model.

这些投资风险很高，但非常重要。

That's highly risky, but highly important investments that are being made.

我觉得，埃隆这种对前沿创新的无限热情，真是英勇且重要。

I mean, it is heroic and important that we have this level of, I just think, unbridled enthusiasm for innovation on the frontier that Elon's doing.

我希望看到更多CEO和上市公司愿意承担这样的风险。

And I wish we saw more CEOs, more public companies willing to take this level of risk.

我们刚才还在讨论，有些CEO可能因为稳妥的选择更容易，所以承担的风险较少。

We just got done talking about, you know, some CEOs maybe that were taking less risk because the safe bet was was easier to make.

埃隆就是不肯只走稳妥路线。

Elon refuses just to take the safe bet.

他把这个非凡业务赚来的所有钱，都重新投入到对美国至关重要的事情上。

He's taking all the dollars from this thing where he has an extraordinary business and plowing them back into these things that are critically important to The United States.

顺便说一句，布拉德，你说得非常好，因为看看其他CEO和管理团队，他们也开始这么做了。

And by the way, Brad, such a good point because if you look at other CEOs and other management teams, they're getting in on this.

他们开始意识到，回购股票、分红不如投资未来重要。

They're starting to realize that buying back your shares, giving dividends is not as important as betting on the future.

DoorDash 因为资本开支投入太多被狠狠批评了。

DoorDash got taken to the woodshed because they're investing too much in Capex.

显然，谷歌也因为资本开支被市场打击了。

Obviously, Google got smacked with their Capex spend.

所以这种情况一次又一次地发生。

So that keeps happening over and over again.

至于 SpaceX 将要面临的逆风，那些我认为最终会被证明是错误、但在这里值得讨论的观点是：嘿，

And just on the headwinds that SpaceX is gonna face, the arguments that I think will turn out to be wrong, but they're valid to talk about here are, hey.

对代币和计算能力的需求会持续吗？还是说本地部署、桌面端和开源模型会变得更小、更好？

Is this demand for tokens and compute gonna keep up, or does on prem and desktops and open source models getting smaller, better?

这会不会在某个时候真正抑制需求？

Does that actually mute at some point demand?

我不认为会这样。

I don't think it does.

我不知道有没有上限，我不知道按需智能有没有上限。

I don't know there's an upper I don't know there's an upper bound for on demand intelligence.

第二个方面，很明显，星链是给那些住在农村地区的人用的。

The second one, obviously, is Starlink is for people who are in a rural neighborhood.

如果你楼里有Verizon光纤或者Spectrum，你根本不需要，也没法在楼上装星链。

If you've got Verizon fiber to your building or Spectrum, you're not putting nor can you put a Starlink on your building.

所以接下来一两年可能会发生的是，等他们完成合并后，每辆特斯拉都会内置星链。

So the piece there that's explained probably in the next year or two is every single Tesla sold is gonna have Starlink in it when they get that merger done.

这意味着你会有Wi-Fi网络，让任何手机都能连接到任何特斯拉，比如那些路上的自动驾驶出租车，你还能直接连接下一代星链。

What that means is you're gonna have Wi Fi networks connecting any phone to any Tesla, say all those robo taxis out there, you'll be able to connect also directly with the next generation of Starlink.

所以只要你的手机有清晰的视线，就能直接连接。

So your phone will be able to direct if it's got clear line of sight.

它就能连接到路上任何一辆特斯拉，因为路上特斯拉很多，而且未来所有特斯拉都会内置星链。

It's gonna be able to connect to any Tesla on the road, which there are many, that all future ones will have a Starlink built into them.

这些都是很有前景的。

So those are super promising.

最后，你知道，关于估值有很多猜测。

And then finally, you know, there's been a lot of speculation about the valuation.

布拉德，是你先提起这个的。

Brad, you brought it up.

我觉得在流动性的时候，当人们问你，我也听你聊过这个，嘿。

I think at liquidity when people were asking you and I heard you talk about it, hey.

私营公司、风险投资，我们是一种投票机制，然后当它上市后，就变成了一种称重机制。

Private companies, venture capital, we are a voting mechanism, and then when it goes public, it becomes a weighing mechanism.

有时候你会遇到这样一个时刻，人们对这些估值感到焦虑，而这种焦虑在上个季度达到了顶峰。

And sometimes you'll have this moment in time where there's hand wringing about those valuations, and the hand wringing peaked in the last quarter.

特斯拉刚上市的时候，市销率是160倍。

You had a 160 times price to sales ratio for Tesla when it first came out.

160倍。

160 times.

对吧？

Right?

你拿它两到三万亿美元的市值，去对比一个较小的营收数字。

You you take their this 2 or $3,000,000,000,000 market cap and you put it against a smaller revenue number.

嗯，如果你看收入数字在增长，现在市销率已经降到45倍了。

Well, if you look at the revenue number increasing, now we're down to a 45 times price to sales ratio.

所以，Brad，这里似乎正在发生某种平衡，在私募和公开市场之间，以及收入的增长，对吧？

So some kind of balance is occurring here, yeah, Brad, between these private and public markets as well as the increase in revenue?

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是，说实话，我觉得这一切都非常健康。

I I I mean, honestly, I think this is all super healthy.

我认为SpaceX的IPO非常出色。

I think the SpaceX IPO was extraordinary.

我认为这里的整合完全是可以预见的。

I think the consolidation here is perfectly predictable.

现在有一家市值1.4万亿美元的公司，如果你看三到四年的前景，按照摩根士丹利的数字或者埃隆的数字，以非常合理的估值，你可以看到在这项业务中翻三倍，但这一直是赌注。

And now you have a company at 1,400,000,000,000 that I think if you take a three or a four year view, you can see yourself tripling your money in this business at a very reasonable valuation on the Morgan Stanley numbers or on the Elon numbers or whatever, but that's always been the bet.

你相信埃隆是最伟大的创新者和资本配置者吗？

Do you believe that Elon is the greatest innovator and great allocator of capital?

但入场价格很重要。

But the price of entry matters.

对吧？

Right?

如果你在IPO第一天就头脑发热，以超过两万亿的市值买入，你得知道这种情况肯定会发生。

When you get carried away on day one of an IPO and you buy this thing over 2,000,000,000,000, you gotta know that this is going to happen.

IPO那天我在CNBC上说过，我想拥有这家公司，但我不确定今天就是买入的好时机。

I was on CNBC the day of the IPO, and I said, I would wanna own this company, but I'm not sure today is the day I would buy the company.

对吧？

Right?

所以，你知道的，入场价格很关键。

And so, you know Entry price matters.

我的意思是，这不仅仅是一个

I mean, is just not a

但是，但是

But but

我再给你举个例子。

let me give you another one.

你懂吧？

You know?

就像我们之前聊到的 Anthropic IPO，或者很多人都在讨论它今年晚些时候上市的事。

Like, we've talked about the Anthropic IPO, or a lot of people have talked about it later this year.

我听到很多人说估值会达到15亿或者20亿美元。

I hear a lot of people saying 1.5 or $2,000,000,000,000.

大卫刚才提到，到年底营收可能会突破一千亿。

David just talked earlier that it's gonna be run rating over a 100,000,000,000 maybe by the end of the year.

这相当于十倍到十五倍的市销率。

That's like 10 to 15 times revenue.

对于一家刚刚实现十倍增长、且传闻二季度将盈利的公司来说，这个估值并不算高。

That is not that much for a company that just grew 10 x and is rumored to be profitable in q two.

所以我观察市场，看看七月那个月的整合情况。

And so I look at the market, the consolidation we saw in the month of July.

你知道，我们在七月，希望是利奥波德底部，很多半导体股票都跌完了。

You know, we put in the Leopold bottom, hopefully, in July that, you know, a lot of semi stocks were done.

这是公式。

It's formula.

利奥波德底部。

Leopold bottom.

嘿。

Hey.

嘿。

Hey.

听着。

Listen.

这家伙做得很好。

The guy's doing great.

他显然今年还涨了80%。

He can he's apparently still up 80% for the year.

刚刚又做了一笔大的私人投资。

Just made another big private investment.

我觉得他在短时间内把公司建设得非常好，但市场确实因为那件事而恐慌了，对。

I I I think he's done an extraordinarily good job building the firm in a short period of time, but the market did panic around that Yeah.

因为他不得不平仓。

As as as he had to cover.

我觉得这些都是好事。

I think all of that is really good.

所以展望未来，随着今年晚些时候SpaceX的IPO，以及后续的IPO，我觉得我们的状态非常好，特别是如果这些收入继续快速增长的话。

So as I look ahead marching to these IPOs later in the year on the back of the SpaceX IPO, I think we're in in in really good shape, you know, particularly if these revenues continue apace.

你知道埃隆最擅长什么吗？

You know what Elon's really good at?

就是造东西。

It's just building stuff.

对，就是这样。

Like Yeah.

针对特定工厂的。

Factory specific.

顺便说一下，

By the way,

是指实体的物理站点。

is it is Physical physical sites.

在这个大家都在争抢数据中心和晶圆厂的领域里，这确实是个核心优势。

That is such a core advantage in this world where everyone's competing for data centers and fabs.

软件层需要现实世界里的硬件来支撑他们的服务，而在这方面，没人比埃隆更在行。

The software layer needs hardware in the physical world in order to deliver their software services, and there is no one better than Elon at actually doing that.

你看看全球各地建起来的超级工厂就知道了。

Look at how Gigafactories have been stood up around the world.

这才是他的核心竞争力。

This is his core competency.

所以布拉德，你想想看，把埃隆跟达里奥、山姆，甚至拥有二十七年经验的Alphabet放在一起比，如果未来世界真的拼这个，那埃隆的优势是碾压级的。

So, Brad, like, you put Elon up against a Dario and a Sam and even an Alphabet, which has twenty seven years of doing this, I mean, man, Elon's got a core advantage if this is what this world comes down to.

他在电话会议上说了类似的话，他说，看，建数据中心跟造火箭比起来根本不算什么。

He said something like that on the call where he said, look, putting up data centers is nothing compared to the difficulty of putting up a rocket.

对吧？

Right?

就像，你知道，建数据中心不是造火箭那种高难度的事。

It's like, know, creating data centers is not rocket science.

所以他们把SpaceX的一些硬件专长用到数据中心上，这就是为什么他们能比所有竞争对手更快地建起更多或更大的数据中心。

So they take some of those hardware expertise that they have from SpaceX and they put them into data centers and that's why they've been able to stand up, you know, more data centers or or bigger data centers faster than all the competitors.

这里有几个要点。

A couple points there.

Starship对Starlink为什么这么重要，清楚了吗？

Is it clear why Starship is so important to Starlink?

好的。

Okay.

让我快速解释一下。

Let me just explain this quickly.

简单来说，SpaceX 开发了一款新的 V3 卫星，它的带宽是 V2 卫星的十倍。

So basically, SpaceX has developed a new v three satellite that has 10 x the bandwidth of its v two satellite.

目前，星链网络是由 V2 卫星驱动的。

So currently, the Starlink network is powered by v two satellites.

他们用猎鹰九号火箭发射这些卫星，每次发射大约 27 颗，总共增加约 2.6 太比特每秒的网络容量。

They deploy them on the Falcon nine rocket and they launch about 27 satellites per launch and that adds about 2.6 terabits per second of total network capacity.

星舰每次发射可以部署 60 颗这种 V3 卫星。

Starship deploys 60 of these v three satellites per launch.

这样每次发射就能增加 60 太比特每秒的总网络容量。

That would add 60 terabits per second of total network capacity per launch.

所以每次发射的容量是原来的 20 多倍。

So over 20 times more capacity per launch.

这就是它的威力所在。

That's the power of it.

顺便说一下，如果他们能让星舰正常工作——上次测试不仅证明了热防护罩有效，据我所知，他们实际上还发射了，或者说部署了 20 颗 V3 卫星作为测试，并且成功与这些卫星建立了连接，证明了这项技术可行。

So if they get Starship working by the way, the last test, not only did it prove that the heat shield worked, my understanding is they actually launched or rather they deployed 20 v three satellites as a test, and they were able to make connection with those satellites and prove that it worked.

他们甚至还在上面装了摄像头。

They even had cameras on them.

我们能看到星舰，就是因为他们说，管他呢，装几个高清摄像头上去。

The reason we were able to see the Starship was because they're like, YOLO, let's put some cameras HD cameras on them.

对。

Right.

我觉得那些卫星基本上就是测试用的，然后它们……

Now I think those satellites, basically, it was just a test, and they

它们烧毁了。

They burned up.

烧毁了。

Burned up.

所以我觉得下一个重大里程碑就是，他们用星舰发射比如60颗这种V3卫星，把它们放到正确的轨道上，建立连接，增加网络带宽，那将是一个大事件。

So I think the next big milestone here will be when they launch Starship with, let's say, 60 of these v three satellites, put them in the correct orbit, make connection with them, add the bandwidth to the network, that's gonna be a big milestone.

但如果你把这个逻辑推演到底，星链网络的带宽会提升10倍，甚至最终达到100倍。

But you play this out to its logical conclusion and the bandwidth available to the Starlink network goes up 10 x or eventually a 100 x times.

到那时候，他们就能做各种有趣的事情，比如直接连到手机。

And that's when they can do all the interesting things like direct to cellular.

有一些有趣的暗示，格温·肖在谈到地面站时提到，他们可能在那里做些什么。

There were some interesting hints that Gwynshaw well talked about about with ground stations about what they could potentially do there.

而且我觉得

And I think that

可能会收购T-Mobile之类的，这完全在他们的购买能力范围内。

might buy T Mobile or something like that, It's easily within their range of purchases.

而且，我觉得埃隆提到过，星链网络最终可能处理大约一半的互联网流量。

And and I think Elon mentioned something about potentially the the the Starlink network could eventually handle roughly half of Internet traffic.

所以，我的意思是，这件事可能比1200万用户大得多，弗里德伯格，你说得对。

So, I mean, this this thing could get so much bigger than just 12,000,000 subscribers to your point, Friedberg.

但是，听着，布拉德，我想先谈谈数据中心。

But look, I I wanna actually talk about the data centers for a second, Brad.

我确实有几个问题要问。

I do have a couple of questions about this.

所以埃隆提到，好的，到今年年底我们会达到两千兆瓦。

So Elon mentioned that, okay, we're gonna be at two gigawatts by the end of the year.

他说明年我们会达到五到十，更接近十而不是五。

He said that we will be at five to 10 next year, closer to 10 than five.

那我们就说八吧。

So let's just say eight.

对吧？

Okay?

对。

So Yeah.

我随便说的，但在他们的范围内。

I'm just making that up, but it's on their range.

那我们就说增加了六千兆瓦。

So let's just say that's an add of six gigawatts.

所以他们从二涨到八。

So they go from two to eight.

好的。

Okay.

对我来说，这里有两个问题。

To me, there's two questions there.

一个是，你怎么知道现货价格会保持现在的水平？

One is, how do you know that the spot price is gonna stay where it is?

你知道，它能保持在每瓦50美元吗？

You know, can it stay at $50 per watt?

我们怎么知道？

How do we know?

我们怎么追踪？

How do we track that?

这上面有多少风险？

How much risk is there around that?

我在电话里感觉，埃隆认为这个数字会上升，因为现在市场受内存限制。

I got the sense on the call that Elon thinks that number is going up because the market is memory constrained right now.

我记得他提到明年内存产量可能会增加20%，但需求增长超过200%。

I think he mentioned that we might see a 20% increase in memory production next year, but the demand is going up 200% plus.

所以市场受制于当时的瓶颈。

So the market is constrained by whatever the bottleneck is at that time.

现在的瓶颈就是内存。

Right now, the bottleneck is memory.

那你觉得现货价格会怎么走？

So where do you see the spot price going?

我们怎么知道？

How do we know?

这其中的风险有多大？

How much risk is around that?

另一个问题是，如果你从2吉瓦增加到8吉瓦，净增6吉瓦，我们知道一个吉瓦的数据中心大约需要500亿美元的资本开支。

And then the other question I would have is if you go from two to eight gigawatts that you have net of six, we know that a gigawatt power data center is, you know, 50,000,000,000 of Capex.

对。

Right.

所以如果明年真建起来的话，新增的六吉瓦算力对应的资本支出就是三千亿。

So six incremental gigawatts of compute would be 300,000,000,000 of Capex next year, assuming they build that.

对吧？

Right?

我是说，他们肯定有其他的灵活安排。

I mean, they have optionality around that, I'm sure.

那这笔钱怎么融资呢？

So how do you finance that?

你懂的。

You know?

最不会稀释股权的方式是什么？

And what's the most nondilutive way?

他们说回报周期在一年以内。

They said their payback is a year or less.

我敢肯定这跟现货价格挂钩。

I'm sure that's tied to the spot price.

所以你只需要融资一年。

So you only have to finance it for a year.

问题是，你觉得英伟达会给他们提供融资吗？

And the question, do you think NVIDIA gives them that financing?

或者这件事会怎么发展，我想问的就是这个。

Or how will this play out, I guess, is my question?

大卫，这个角度提得很好。

It's a great framing, David.

首先，建一千兆瓦至少要花500亿美元。

First, it's $50,000,000,000 per gigawatt to build minimum.

对吧？

Okay?

所以那就是3000亿美元。

So you're $300,000,000,000.

要融资的话，在我看来，要么去市场借钱，要么做稀释股权的增发，这两件事他们都不想干。要么就让英伟达来兜底，英伟达也表示过会更多参与，但问题在于英伟达的股东不希望他们无限兜底，因为大家担心的是，现货价格到某个时候可能会对你不利，一旦那样，回本周期就变了。

So in order to finance that, it seems to me you either have to go into the market and borrow the money or you have to do a dilutive equity raise, neither of which they wanna do, or you get NVIDIA to backstop it, which they've indicated that they're going to do more of, but the problem there is NVIDIA shareholders don't want them backstopping unlimited because the fear in the world is that that sprite spot price at some point, right, may go against you, and when it does, the payback period changes.

现在没人觉得回本周期会是一年，尽管现货价格暗示今天就能回本。

Now nobody thinks that the payback period is gonna be one year even though the spot price is suggesting that it is that today.

对吧？

Right?

就在几年前，人们还觉得你可能根本收不回成本。

Just a few years ago, people thought you would get paid or not few years ago.

几个月前，人们觉得四年能回本，所以基本上你投入50。

A few months ago, people thought you'd get payback over four years, so you basically spend 50.

然后每年赚10到15。

You then earn 10 to 15 per year.

四到五年回本，然后希望第六年能带来超过20%的回报。

You get payback over four to five years, and then hopefully, you get the sixth year, which really takes you up well above 20% in terms of your returns.

现在，短缺太严重了，前沿实验室的支付意愿非常高，因为他们都意识到自己正处于重大突破的边缘，所以愿意支付市场价的三倍、四倍、五倍来获得大规模计算能力。

Right now, the shortage is so acute, and the willingness to pay from the front Labs is so high because they all recognize they're on the verge of some massive breakthroughs that they're willing to pay three, four, five x market pricing in order to get at scale compute.

这就是Anthropic和SpaceX交易的情况。

And that's what happened with the Anthropic deal with SpaceX.

我觉得如果Anthropic能做到的话，他们今天会买更多。

I think Anthropic would buy a lot more of that today if they could.

OpenAI也一样。

Same with OpenAI.

你是说他们愿意多付高达五倍的价格。

You're saying that they would be willing to overpay by a factor of up to five x.

对，那就是大卫提到的每瓦50美元的价格。

Well, that's the 50 that, you know, that's the $50 per watt that David was referencing.

如果能获得规模化的算力，让他们在市场上有竞争优势，他们愿意付30到50美元。

They would be willing to pay this 30 to 50 if they could get at scale compute that would give them a competitive advantage over the other people in the market.

而且记住，没有多少人有足够的营收来负担这么大规模的算力。

And remember, there aren't a lot of people who have the off take revenue that can afford to buy compute at this scale.

对吧？

Right?

其实并不是中国的开源公司在买SpaceX的过剩算力，也不是他们在俄亥俄州建那个10吉瓦的工厂。

It wasn't the Chinese open source companies that were buying, you know, SpaceX's excess compute or building the 10 gigawatt, you you know, plant in in Ohio.

那就是OpenAI和Anthropic。

That's OpenAI and Anthropic.

所以绝大部分的承购承诺都来自Anthropic、OpenAI和NVIDIA。

So the vast majority of the offtake commitments are coming from Anthropic, OpenAI, and NVIDIA.

对吧？

Right?

当你听说那些超大规模云服务商在建设所有这些算力时，他们其实是在为刚才提到的那些公司建设的。

When you hear about the hyperscalers building all of this, you know, this compute out, they're building it out to sell to the people that we, you know, that we just mentioned.

所以，David，总的来说，如果他明年建成六吉瓦，而且顺便说一句，可能只有Elon能在那个时间框架内真正完成这么多。

So, David, net net, if he builds six gigawatts next year and by the way, probably only Elon, you know, can actually stand up that much in that time frame.

就像Jensen在播客里对我说的，他说，没人能接近。

Like Jensen said to me on the pod, he's like, nobody comes close.

微软也差得远。

Microsoft doesn't come close.

你知道，谷歌在那么短的时间内也做不到。

You know, Google doesn't come close in terms of standing it up in that time frame.

我觉得他在搞定所有零部件方面会遇到挑战。

I think that he's gonna have a challenge, you know, getting all of the componentry.

对吧？

Right?

我知道他能把这些东西搭建起来，但他能拿到足够的内存吗？

I know he can stand it up, but can he get the memory?

他还能搞到芯片吗？

Can he get the chips?

他能在期限内搞定土地和电力配套吗？

Can he get the land powered shell all in time?

我觉得需求是有的。

I think the off take is there.

对吧？

Right?

不过为了有个概念，今年Anthropic和OpenAI加起来的初始算力规模大概只有五吉瓦。

But to put it in perspective, this year, Anthropic and OpenAI combined, their starting total compute was like five gigawatts.

所以他说的是逐步增加，比他们两家公司加起来的总量还要多。

So he's talking about incrementally adding more than they had as combined companies.

对吧？

Right?

但这对Anthropic来说不算太大的增长，因为它每年增长10倍，而OpenAI可能也就4倍，或者现在更高？

But that's not that much of an increase when Anthropic is growing 10 x year over year and OpenAI is maybe at, what, four x or maybe higher now?

所以，世界上确实存在这种需求。

So you The have demand exists in the world.

今天世界上确实存在这种需求。

The demand exists in the world today.

我觉得未来

I think it will exist in the

未来十二到二十四个月里，这种需求还会存在，但市场上有很多担忧的声音。

world for, well, you you know, the next twelve to twenty four months, but there is a wall of worry in the market.

我们七月份看到回调的原因，是因为Kimi让市场恐慌了，大家开始想，天哪。

The reason we saw the pullback in July is Kimi scared people into thinking, oh my gosh.

他们会压低前沿实验室的收入。

They're gonna undercut the Frontier's revenues.

如果他们压低前沿实验室的收入，那谁来为这些算力买单呢？

And if they undercut the Frontier Labs revenues, who the hell is gonna pay for all this compute?

这就是为什么你看到全球核心半导体股和与AI相关的半导体股票下跌了40%。

That's why you saw a 40% trade down in the core weaves of the world and, you know, the the all of the the semiconductor stocks and semiconductor related AI stocks.

你看，现在大家都在讨论这下一个10吉瓦的算力要花5000亿美元，然后你问，这钱从哪来？

Ways, the fact that there's a discussion going on that this next 10 gigawatts is gonna cost, you know, Sacks $500,000,000,000, and you ask the question, where does that come from?

是二次发行吗？

A secondary offering?

英伟达会把它记在自己的账上吗？

Does NVIDIA put it on their books?

他们会像有些人那样，在表外设立特殊目的公司吗？

Do they create SPVs off their books like some people are doing?

你看，我们都在讨论这件事，大家都清楚，市场也已经了解了，这意味着如果事情没有发生或者进展放缓，我认为人们能够实时调整，我怀疑这种速度还能再维持两年左右。

You know, the fact that we're having this conversation, everybody's aware of it, the market has been educated on it means I think people will be able to change in real time if it doesn't come to pass or if it slows down, which I suspect this cannot keep up at this pace, you know, more than another two years or so.

不过，就像我们的好朋友比尔·格利经常提醒我们的那样，他说，我真不敢相信我们居然都这么淡定地接受了这种程度的卖方融资。

Although, as our good friend Bill Gurley likes to remind us, he's like, I can't believe that we're all just taking in stride this level of seller financing.

对吧？

Right?

他会称之为循环收入。

He would call it circular revenues.

对吧？

Right?

但市场已经习惯了这种情况。

But the market has gotten comfortable with this.

而且记住，就像我们在七月份看到的，如果出现需求恐慌，整个板块都会下跌。

And remember, like we saw in July, if there is a scare about demand, the whole sector trades down.

是的。

Yeah.

所有东西都会一起跌，你知道，因为这就是你往系统里注入的杠杆。

Everything will trade down, you know, together because that's just the leverage that you're pumping into the system.

你实际上是在为那些在收入到位之前就投入建设的人提供兜底保障。

You're effectively backstopping people's ability to build ahead of their revenue.

所以一旦需求出现下滑，市场反应会非常剧烈。

So it becomes much more violent if you ever see demand slippage.

说句老生常谈的话，我目前看不出未来十二到十八个月内会有这种情况，但你也知道，总会有一些意想不到的突发状况，这肯定会让人产生恐惧心理。

You know, famous last words, I don't see it today over the course of the next twelve to eighteen months, but, you know, you have these unknown unknown moments that certainly causes people to be fearful.

信用利差正在扩大，你知道的，这些交易的利差持续保持高位。

Credit spreads are blowing, you know, have continued to to stay wide on these deals.

所以市场上对他们存在担忧。

So there is fear in the market about them.

好了，各位。

Alright, everybody.

第五届。

The fifth annual.

既然到了九月，大家就知道该参加 All-In 峰会了。

If it's September, you know it's time for the All-In Summit.

第五届峰会就要来了。

The fifth annual is happening.

是的。

Yes.

没错。

That's right.

大卫·弗里德伯格一直在忙活，我们有一份全明星嘉宾名单。

David Friedberg's been at work, and we have an all star all star list of people joining us.

黄仁勋，英伟达的创始人兼CEO。

Jensen Huang, founder and CEO of NVIDIA.

如果你关心AI的未来，这场对话你绝对不能错过。

If you care about where AI is headed, you won't wanna miss this conversation.

最棒的，神谕者。

The best, the Oracle.

萨提亚·纳德拉，微软CEO，也是我们播客的粉丝，这是他第二次来。

Satya Nadella, CEO of Microsoft, fan of the pod, will be coming on for the second time.

来自NASA的杰瑞德·艾萨克曼。

Jared Isaacman from NASA.

独一无二的布拉德·格斯特纳和比尔·格利，BG2组合回归了。

The one, the only, Brad Gerstner and Bill Gurley, BG two coming back.

SpaceX的格温·肖特维尔。

SpaceX's Gwen Shotwell.

我的好哥们，杰克·保罗。

My guy, Jake Paul.

尼克·雪莉，还有很多厉害的人要来。

Nick Shirley, Lot of incredible people coming.

马丁·谢尔可能也会来。

Martin Schirle maybe is even coming.

那肯定会很有趣。

He's that's gonna be fun.

今天就去allinsummit.com申请吧。

Go to the allinsummit.com to apply today.

Allin.com 或者 allinsummit.com。

Allin.com or the allinsummit.com.

这两个网站都能带你到那里。

Any of those will get you there.

我们又要包下环球影城了。

And we're taking over Universal Studios again.

我们会有一个专属的游乐场。

We'll have our own private playground.

戴夫·弗里德伯格，峰会上干得漂亮。

Dave Friedberg, great job on the Summit.

还有赌场之夜。

Casino night too.

我听说那会是一个盛大的赌场之夜。

I heard it's gonna be a big casino night.

史上最大的一次。

Biggest yet.

还有音乐会，表演嘉宾还没公布，但一定会非常精彩。

And the concert to be announced, who will be performing at the concert, but it is gonna be incredible.

所以我就说峰会的一个特点吧，我们有来自超过60个国家的人来参加。

So I'll just say one of the things about the summit, we've had people come to the summit from over 60 countries.

见到这些人真的很棒，有企业家、投资者，还有那些对我们讨论的话题特别感兴趣的人。

It's really incredible to meet all these people, entrepreneurs, investors, people that are just really interested in the topics that we talk about.

我们努力去举办世界上最重要的对话，但这真的是一种很棒的社区体验。

We try and have the world's most important conversations, but it's really this amazing community experience.

这就是为什么大家会再次回来。

That's what brings folks back.

所以我们每年都努力投入更多，让它成为一次很棒的体验，而不只是舞台上的精彩内容，我觉得很多其他节目就是那样。

So we try and invest more and more every year in making it an amazing experience, not just cool content on a stage, which I think is what a lot of these other shows really deliver.

但关键是，你怎么才能真正来体验几天呢？

But it's like, how do you actually come and have a have an experience for a couple days?

一定会很棒的。

It's gonna be awesome.

所以它

So It

确实就是我们重点关注的这三件事。

really is those three things that we focus on.

第一，你会学到一些东西。

One, you're gonna learn something.

对吧？

Right?

台上都是很厉害的人。

You got these great people on stage.

你会从他们身上学到东西。

You're gonna learn something from them.

你会认识新朋友。

You're gonna meet new people.

你会拓展人脉，然后还会有一段很棒的体验。

You're gonna network, and then you're gonna have these great experiences.

这就是三位一体，各位。

It's the trifecta folks.

你兴奋吗，布拉德？

You're excited, Brad?

你兴奋要

You excited to

回来了吗？

be back?

日期是什么？

What what are the dates?

再说一遍日期是什么？

What are the dates again?

看看

Look

你的日历。

at your calendar.

你说吧。

You're speaking.

九月十三号到十五号，在洛杉矶。

September thirteenth through fifteenth in LA.

这个日期对峰会来说再好不过了。

This couldn't be better dates for the summit.

我是说，我们离中期选举不到六十天了。

I mean, we're we're gonna be within sixty days of an election, midterm election.

我们离IPO可能不到三十天，你知道的，有可能。

We're gonna be within thirty days of an IPO, you know, potentially of.

我是说，这肯定会很激烈。

I mean, like, it's it's gonna be heated.

是SaaS末日，不是Sack末日。

The sass pocalypse, not the Sackspocalypse.

这个SaaS末日，我想，正在慢慢消退。

This is the SaaS pocalypse is, I guess, winding its way out.

消化不良的情况可能正在好转。

The indigestion might be clearing.

Airtable 刚刚被收购，成交价低于其融资额。

Airtable just got acquired for less than it raised.

这是一家盈利的 SaaS 公司，产品很棒，年收入达到 4.8 亿到 5 亿美元，年增长率 20%，如果是上市公司也算体面了，而且账上几乎有近 10 亿美元的现金，结果还是被卖掉了。

It's a profitable SaaS company, a great product, $480,000,000, $500,000,000 in annual revenue, growing 20% a year, respectable if it was a public company, with almost $1,000,000,000 in cash has been sold.

它最终以 12.8 亿美元的价格成交，这大概只有它 2021 年巅峰时期 117 亿美元估值的 10%。

It's been sold for 1,280,000,000, about 10% of its peak valuation, which was 11,700,000,000 in 2021.

他们当时手头确实有不少现金。

Now they did have a bunch of cash.

所以如果把现金也算进去，总交易额是22.5亿美元。

So if you include the cash position, sale was 2,250,000,000.

这家公司被一家叫Bending Spoons的公司收购了。

They were acquired by a firm called Bending Spoons.

这是一家意大利公司，总部在米兰。

This is an Italian company, Milan based company.

他们收购那些有挑战但有意思的公司，比如AOL的遗留业务、Evernote、Eventbrite、Vimeo、meetup.com，而且他们上个月刚刚上市。

They buy challenged, but, you know, interesting businesses, AOL's legacy business, Evernote, Eventbrite, Vimeo, meetup.com, and they just went public last month.

也就是说，Bending Spoons的股票上个月上市了。

Shares that is Bending Spoons went public last month.

受Airtable消息影响，股价上涨了15%。

Shares jumped 15% on the Airtable news.

Sacks，我们看这件事，这家公司做了很多正确的事情，手里有大量现金储备，但有传言说创始人可能有点疲惫了。

Sacks, when we look at this, this was a company that had done a lot of things right, had a massive amount of cash in their war chest, but rumors were maybe the founders were a little exhausted.

也许有些在高位买入的投资者也感到疲惫了。

Maybe some of the investors were exhausted who bought in at a high level.

从这笔交易和Bending Spoons身上，我们能学到什么？

What can we take away from this transaction in Bending Spoons?

他们现在是不是成了最后的买家？

Are they the buyer of last resort now?

嗯，我觉得他们为自己创造了一个很好的业务，因为我认为这对他们来说最终会是一笔相当赚钱的收购。

Well, I think they're creating a great business for themselves because I think this will end up being a fairly profitable acquisition for them.

我再补充一点，Airtable在收购前把它的AI代理业务，也就是HyperAgent，拆分成了一个独立的公司。

Let me just add a piece to this, which is Airtable spun out its AI agent business, which is known as HyperAgent, into a separate independent company prior to this acquisition.

所以我觉得这里的情况是，公司的创始人和人才说，看，我们不想再费力去维护这个老产品了。

So I think what's going on here is that the founders and talent of the company, they said, look, we don't want to have to make this legacy product work.

这基本上就是私募股权的玩法。

That's basically a private equity play.

我马上解释这是什么意思。

I'll explain what that means in a second.

我们想专注于新事物，也就是AI公司。

We wanna focus on the new thing, the AI company.

那里才是未来价值创造的大头，或者说潜力所在。

That's where the big value creation is gonna be in the future or the potential for it.

所以基本上，人才会专注于风险投资这块，然后他们把私募股权这块卖给Bending Spoons。

So essentially, the talent is gonna focus on the venture play, and then they're selling the private equity play to Bending Spoons.

那为什么我认为这对Bending Spoons来说可能是一笔好收购呢？

Now why do I think this could be a good acquisition for Bending Spoons?

我觉得关于这件事的评论里有一个非常有意思的数据点，那就是Airtable的销售团队只有30%的人完成了销售指标。

I think there was a really interesting data point that I saw in the commentary on this, which is only 30% of Airtable sales team was making quota.

他们的销售达成率只有30%。

They had a 30% sales attainment number.

这让我对这个业务有了很多了解。

And that told me a lot about this business.

对吧？

Okay?

它告诉我的，是我在这里从字里行间读出来的。

What it told me is and I'm reading between the lines here.

但这家公司曾经有一个非常成功的PLG模式。

But this was a company that had a successful PLG motion.

也就是说，靠自然增长、产品驱动增长，他们每年大概增长20%。

In other words, organic growth, product led growth, and they were growing about 20% a year.

但对董事会来说，这还不够好。

But that was not good enough for its board.

你知道，这些投资者中有些人是在110亿美元峰值估值时投资的。

You know, these are investors, some of whom invested in an $11,000,000,000 peak valuation.

所以他们期望的是风险投资式的回报。

So they're looking for a venture type outcome.

那接下来会发生什么？

So what happens?

董事会向创始人施压，要求他们做一些对他们来说其实很不自然的事情，他们说：你们应该在这里加上传统的销售驱动模式，以加快增长。

The board pressures the founders to do something that frankly is unnatural for them, which is they say, look, you should bolt on a traditional sales led motion here to get the growth up faster.

这能行吗？

Does that work?

不行。

No.

他们可能从中获得一点增长，但销售目标完成率只有30%。

They probably get a little bit of growth out of it, but they only get 30% attainment.

所以他们有数百名销售代表在这里费力推一根绳子，但并没有让增长更快。

So they've got hundreds and hundreds of sales reps here trying to push on a string, and it's not making it grow faster.

那么现在收购方的机会在哪里呢？

So now what's the opportunity for the acquirer here?

Bending Spoons 可以像马斯克在推特那样，削减 85% 到 90% 的成本结构。

Bending spoons can go in here and do what Elon did at Twitter, eliminate 85, 90 of the cost structure.

不要采用这种销售驱动的模式。

Don't do this sales led motion.

回归产品驱动的增长本源。

Just go back to your product led growth roots.

你很可能还能保持那 20% 的增长，而且公司会非常盈利。

You'll probably keep most of that 20% growth, and it'll be a very profitable company.

你就能做到

You'll be able to

可能达到百分之多少的利润率。

percent profitable probably.

对吧？

Right?

很有可能。

Probably.

我的意思是，

I mean

净利润增加4亿，两三年就能收回收购成本。

400,000,000 to the bottom line pays for the acquisition in a couple years.

现在大家预测他们的EBITDA利润率只有30%。

People are saying they're only gonna generate 30% EBITDA margin.

我觉得，就像你说的，可能达到90%。

I think, like you're saying, it could be 90%.

我认为没必要保留大部分业务，也没必要保留跟这业务相关的大部分成本结构。

I don't think you need to keep most of this business or most of the cost structure associated with this business.

Airtable这家公司是有粉丝基础的。

Airtable is a company that has its fans.

我觉得他们大概率会继续用下去。

I think they will probably stick with it.

而且，你知道，你会产生，我也不确定。

And, you know, you'll you'll be generating I don't know.

你每年可能产生3亿或4亿美元的EBITDA，同时还能保持10%到20%的增长。

You could probably generate 300,000,000 of EBITDA a year or 400,000,000, while growing, you know, 10 to 20%.

所以这就像是在弯勺子一样，是个超能力。

So that's a play for bending spoons.

但你看，这里的风险投资者，Sacks。

But look venture investors here, Sacks.

他们，是的。

They're Yeah.

他们很高兴能拿回钱，然后继续做下一件事。

Happy to get their money back and move on to the next thing.

对他们来说，这有点像在赌桌上被推了一把，而不是他们必须翻10倍才能追平，然后还得再翻10倍才能让他们的LP满意。

It's a bit of a push for them, you know, in terms of at the blackjack table rather than they've gotta go 10 x just to catch up, and then they would have to go 10 x again to make their LPs happy.

这不可能发生。

It's not gonna happen.

我觉得问题是，Bending Spoons能不能把这家不赚钱的公司，每年做到4亿美元的EBITDA，然后三年内就收回收购成本。

I think the question is if Bending Spoons can basically take this business that's not making money and probably generate 400,000,000 a year of EBITDA and pay for the acquisition in just three years

太厉害了。

Amazing.

那为什么公司自己做不到呢？

Why isn't that something that the company could do on its own?

我觉得这就是结构性问题，因为无论是董事会里的风投还是创始人，都很难切换到私募股权那种模式。

And I think that's the structural problem is I think it's very hard for both VCs who are on the board and the founders to shift into private equity mode.

为什么？

Why?

因为他们得拆掉自己一手建起来的东西。

Because they're gonna have to demolition what they've built.

对吧？

Right?

他们对团队有这么多感情。

They've got all this loyalty to the team.

他们不想考虑如何削减90%的成本结构。

They don't wanna think about how do I eliminate 90% of the cost structure.

这不是他们做的事。

It's just not what they do.

我的意思是，创始人想做的和董事会成员追求的结果是风险投资支持的结果。

I mean, what what founders wanna do and and the outcome that the board members are going for is a venture backed outcome.

我觉得他们本来可以做到这一点。

And I think they could have done this.

他们可以像Bending Spoons那样做。

They could do what Bending Spoons does.

他们不是为此而生的，Sacks。

They're not built for it, Sacks.

他们不是为此而生的。

They're not built for it.

此外，资本表的结构完全不对，因为他们被巨大的清算优先权压着。

Moreover, structure of the cap table is all wrong because they're sitting behind this giant liquidation preference.

所有这些投资者，他们以110亿美元的估值投资，还有更高的，都得先拿回他们的钱。

All these investors who have to get paid back who invested at this $11,000,000,000 valuation and and, you know, all the way up.

激励机制已经坏了，布拉德。

The the incentives are broken, Brad.

对。

Right.

而且你自己，在你们公司Altimeter，那段时间你也很活跃。

And you, you yourself, at your firm altimeter, you were pretty frisky in this period.

你下了很多赌注。

You made a lot of bets.

所以我不知道Airtable是不是其中之一，但你确实在SaaS领域下了些注。

So I don't know if Airtable was one of them, but you made some SaaS bets there.

有些估值很高。

Some of them were at high valuations.

你现在回头看那段时间，有什么感想？

How are you looking back at that time period?

你以后会吸取哪些教训？

Any lessons that you take going forward?

收入倍数可能会迅速压缩。

Multiples of revenue can compress very quickly.

对吧？

Right?

当公司增长率超过50%时，这个办法很管用，但记住，它只是一个粗略的估算方法。

It works great when a company is growing greater than 50%, but remember, it's just a heuristic.

它只是硅谷几乎专门使用的一个粗略估计。

It's just a very rough estimate used almost exclusively in Silicon Valley.

你知道吗？

You know?

所以人们会说，天哪。

So people are saying, oh my god.

这东西以两倍收入的价格卖掉了。

This thing sold for two times revenue.