住房可负担性危机、Palantir的优势、AI大空头、H-1B签证滥用、太阳风暴袭击地球

赌场之夜，还有扑克。

Casino night with poker.

我们请了名人DJ。

We got celebrity DJ coming.

Friedberg会负责打碟。

Friedberg's gonna be on the ones and twos.

Allin.com/events。

Allin.com/events.

Allin.com/events

Allin.com/events.

嘿，龙舌兰酒已经发货了。

And, hey, the tequila has shipped.

所以如果你购买了龙舌兰酒，我们已经开始发货了。

So if you bought tequila, we started shipping the tequila bottles.

感谢大家的耐心等待。

Thank you to everybody for your patience.

我们正在准备酒瓶。

We were getting the bottles.

但是，大卫，看起来酒瓶已经开始发货了。

But, David, it seems like the bottles have started to ship.

是吗？

Yeah?

大家对这件事反应很好。

People feeling pretty good about it.

是的。

Yeah.

这很令人兴奋。

It's exciting.

我觉得

I think

非常令人兴奋。

Very exciting.

全球最顶级的龙舌兰酒将会意外地广受欢迎。

The world's greatest tequila is gonna be surprisingly well received.

好。

K.

来自全球排名第一的播客，由世界最佳主持人打造。

From the number one podcast in the world with the world's greatest moderator.

好吧。

Alright.

听着。

Listen.

现在正面临一场可负担性危机。

There is an affordability crisis.

过去几周我们一直在讨论这个问题。

We talked about it here for the last couple of weeks.

上周末，特朗普政府提出了一个相当大胆的设想——50年期抵押贷款，表面上能将月供减少30%，理论上可能提高住房自有率，我们将在此为年轻人深入探讨这个方案。

Last weekend, the Trump administration floated a pretty wild idea of a fifty year mortgage that would ostensibly cut payments, monthly payments, by 30% and maybe theoretically boost homeownership, and we'll we'll discuss this in-depth here for young people.

这个想法遭到许多MAGA支持者的猛烈抨击，他们说，嘿。

The idea was slammed by many people in MAGA saying, hey.

这是债务奴役，会让终身利息翻三倍。

This is debt slavery, and it's gonna triple the lifetime interest.

你可能一辈子都在支付高额利息，最终沦为契约奴仆。

You can just be paying through the nose for your entire life, and you'll be an indentured servant.

《政客》杂志称，这个构想是由联邦住房金融局局长比尔·帕尔蒂提出的。

Politico said the idea was brought about by FHFA director Bill Palti.

帕尔蒂发推称，联邦住房金融局正在‘积极评估可携带抵押贷款’的可行性。

Palti tweeted that the FHFA was, quote, actively evaluating portable mortgages.

这确实是个好主意。

Now this is a really good idea.

这意味着如果你购买另一套住房，可以带着原有贷款一起转移。

That means you can take your mortgage with you if you go buy another home.

当人们升级住房时，这显然能促使他们搬出那些可能已经不够住或孩子离家后空置卧室的房屋。目前这种情况没有发生，是因为人们害怕解除2%或3%的低息贷款去升级成6%或7%的高息贷款。

If you upgrade a home, that would obviously get people out of homes that maybe they've outgrown or that their kids have left and there's extra bedrooms, and that is not happening because people are afraid to unwind a two or 3% mortgage to upgrade it to a six or seven percent one.

最近有些数据在X平台上疯传。

And there's been some data going viral on x.

全美房地产经纪人协会上周发布了报告。

National Association of Realtors released a report last week.

首次购房者的平均年龄现已达到40岁。

The average age of a first time homebuyer is now 40 years old.

相比1991年我上大学时的28岁大幅上升。

That's up from 28 years old in 1991 when I was in college.

在1991至2021的三十年间，这个数字仅从28岁适度增长到33岁，涨幅18%。

And in the thirty years from 1991 to 2021, it only increased a modest 18% from 28 to 33 years old.

而在过去四年里，首次购房平均年龄从33岁猛增至40岁。

So in the last four years, it's jumped from 33 years old to 40 years old for the average first time home buyer.

次日，节目好友本·夏皮罗的片段在网上疯传。

Day later, clip of friend of the pod, Ben Shapiro, went viral.

这里有个25秒的片段，我们稍后再讨论。

Here's a twenty five second clip, and we'll talk about it after.

如果你是个年轻人，负担不起这里的居住成本，那或许你就不该住在这里。

If you're a young person and you can't afford to live here, then maybe you should not live here.

我是说，这确实是个现实问题。

I mean, that is a real thing.

没错。

Yeah.

我知道我们成长在一个宣扬'你理应住在成长之地'的社会，但现实是美国历史几乎完全与之相反。

I know that we've we've now grown up in a society that says that you deserve to live where you grew up, but the reality is that the history of America is almost literally the opposite of that.

美国的历史就是人们前往充满机遇之地。

The history of America is you go to a place where there is opportunity.

如果这里的机遇有限且没有变化，那你真该考虑其他能提供更好机会的地方。

And if the opportunities are limited here and they're not changing, then you really should try to think about other places where you have better opportunities.

本·夏皮罗这个观点相当直白。

Pretty obvious statement there from Ben Shapiro.

查马德，你整体上对 affordability（可负担性）问题怎么看？

Your thoughts generally on affordability, Chamad.

这是个严峻的问题。

It's a real problem.

我认为这是共和党要想赢得中期选举就必须妥善应对的核心议题。

I think that this is the keystone topic that has to be navigated correctly for the Republicans to win the midterms.

如果要我具体指出的话，我认为有三个关键问题。

I think there are three critical issues if I had to sort of put my finger on it.

第一个问题是住房问题。

Issue number one is one of housing.

本就在那里。

So Ben is right there.

具体来说，问题在于老年人拥有所有房产且持有多套住宅，而年轻人根本无法进入房产市场。

Specifically, the problem is that older folks own all the homes and own multiple homes, and younger folks just cannot get into the housing market.

各州和城市在激励新建住房方面做得并不好。

And cities and states do not do a good job of creating incentives for new homes to be built.

这是其一。

That's one.

第二点，我认为仍与医疗保健有关。

The second, I think, is still around health care.

关于奥巴马医改成本的最新数据非常糟糕。

The emergent data on the cost of Obamacare is horrible.

奥巴马医改彻底失败了。

Obamacare has been an unmitigated failure.

设定毛利率上限的概念，虽然在理论上看似不错，结果却证明是极其愚蠢的做法。

The concept of capping gross margin, while it seemed good theoretically, has really turned out to be an incredibly stupid thing.

杰森，这意味着奥巴马医改中有项规定说毛利率不得超过15%。

So what that meant, Jason, is in Obamacare, there was this feature that said you can only make a 15% gross margin.

对吧？

Right?

当时白宫的人以为成本会下降，因为毛利率受到了限制。

And what the folks at the White House at the time thought would happen is that cost would go down because their gross margin would be limited.

然而实际上，他们只是开始全面提高所有项目的总价，这样15%的利润就能基于更大的基数计算。

Instead, what they did was they just started to raise the gross prices of everything so that the 15% applied to a much bigger number.

本周你们看到总统试图验证是否可以直接将健康激励金发放给民众，存入他们的HSA账户，从而绕过医疗基础设施和保险公司。

And so you saw the president this week trying to see if he could just take the health incentives and give them directly to people and put it in their HSA accounts so that it didn't need to flow through the health care infrastructure and the insurance companies.

这个问题需要被纠正。

So that needs to get fixed.

第三点是关于学生债务方面。

And then the third is on the student debt side.

我上周就说过。

I said it last week.

这周我还要再说一次。

I'll say it this week.

我这里有点借鉴彼得·蒂尔的观点，他长期以来一直主张我们应该对学生贷款减免持更同情的态度，我认为他是对的。

I'm sort of copying Peter Thiel here, but he's been saying for a while that we have to be much more sympathetic to the loan forgiveness, and I think he's right.

因此我认为，如果我们能解决住房、医疗和学生贷款这三个问题，这将是一个以 affordability（可负担性）为核心的变革性国内政策议程，将影响5000万至7500万美国家庭。

So I think if we get these three issues addressed, something in housing, something in health care, and something on the student loan side, it is a transformational domestic policy agenda that puts affordability front and center that will impact 50 to 75,000,000 American households.

弗赖贝格，你有什么想法？

Freiberg, your thoughts?

如果你

If you

看看昨天这篇文章，昨天洛杉矶市议会进行了投票。

pull up this article from yesterday, yesterday, LA City Council held a vote.

投票结果是12比2。

The vote was 12 to two.

通过这次投票，他们限制了房东每年涨租的幅度。

In this vote, they limited the amount that a landlord can increase the rent every year.

这就是租金稳定政策吗？

This is rent stabilization?

是的。

Yeah.

租金管制。

Rent control.

它限制了房东可以收取的租金金额。

So it limits what a landlord can charge in rent.

基本上，他们以12比2的投票结果通过了这项决议。

And, basically, they passed the vote 12 to two.

他们投票决定，房东每年租金涨幅不得超过消费者价格指数(CPI)的90%。

And what they voted is that the landlord cannot increase the rent on an annual basis by more than 90% of CPI.

CPI是消费者价格指数，我们都知道这是由联邦机构每年发布的。

CPI is the consumer price index, which is published by a federal agency every year as we know.

这就是我们节目中经常讨论的通胀指数。

It's the inflation index number that we often talk about on the show.

设有1%的下限，因此无论CPI如何，房东至少可以涨租1%，上限为4%。

With a floor of 1%, so the landlord, regardless of CPI, can increase rent by 1% and a cap of 4%.

所以如果CPI因某些原因飙升（我认为近期不会发生这种情况），最高可以涨租4%。

So if CPI spikes for some reason, which I don't think has happened in recent times, you can charge four up to 4% increase.

这限制了房东可以收取的租金金额。

So it limits what a landlord can charge in rent.

从根本上说，作为投资者需要考虑的是，如果你购买或新建一栋建筑，现在你的权益回报将受到限制。

And fundamentally, to think about this as an investor, so if you're buying a building or building a new building, you are now going to have your equity cap.

你的收益潜力，即你能从该资产（也就是你正在购买的公寓楼）中产生的现金流金额，现在受到每年租金涨幅的限制。

Your upside, the amount of cash flows that you can generate from that asset, meaning the apartment building you're buying, is now limited by the amount that you can increase the rent every year.

这导致投资者缺乏购买新建筑、投资建筑升级或新建建筑的资本动力。

So that creates a disincentive for capital for investors to buy new buildings or put money into upgrading buildings or put money into building new buildings.

与此同时，众所周知，洛杉矶市、加利福尼亚州和美国联邦政府接连通过的法律法规，使得住房建设成本更高、耗时更长、难度更大。

At the same time, as we know, the city of Los Angeles, the state of California, and the federal government of the United States have passed law after law, regulation after regulation, statute after statute has gone into effect that makes it more expensive, take more time, and more difficult to build housing.

监管的增加与经济自由市场准入的限制相结合，我认为这越来越难以实现资本自由流动来新建住房和开发供人们居住及出售的单元。

The increase in regulation combined with the cap in the economic access to free markets, I think has made it increasingly difficult for there to be a free flow of capital to go and build new housing and develop units for people to live in and for sale.

每次政府干预市场，都会扭曲市场。

Every time the government gets involved in a market, it distorts the market.

它限制了流动性，并阻碍市场形成更低的价格。

It limits the flow of liquidity, and it limits the market finding lower prices.

我认为这本质上就是正在发生的情况。

And I think that's fundamentally what's gone on.

政府现在正试图以如此剧烈的方式限制房东的收费，以至于完全剥夺了房东购买和拥有这些建筑的动机，因为这些现在只能成为低收益投资，且没有上涨空间。

The government is now trying to limit what a landlord can charge in such a dramatic way that it's ripped out all of the incentive for landlords to buy and own these buildings because they're now only gonna be small yielding investments, and there's no upside.

因此，建造新住房缺乏动力。

So there's no incentive to go and build new housing.

此外，政府出于种种原因使得新建住房变得困难。

And then the government's made it difficult to build new housing for lots and lots of different reasons.

1978年加州通过的13号提案也产生了同样效果，它极大地抑制了人们出售房屋的意愿，降低了市场流动性。

Same thing happened with prop 13, which we passed in California in 1978, I think, which creates a huge disincentive for people to sell their homes and reduces liquidity in the market.

现在我将转向讨论联邦机构。

Now I'll just flip to the federal agencies.

房利美和房地美合计已发行或支持了约8万亿美元的住房贷款。

So Fannie and Freddie combined have issued or supported about $8,000,000,000,000 of home loans.

最初对此的看法会是，好吧。

The initial view on that would be, okay.

很好。

Great.

它们正在为一个缺乏流动性的市场创造流动性，为需要资金的人提供资本，为缺乏可贷资产的银行提供支持。

They're creating liquidity for a market that doesn't have liquidity for people that need access to capital for banks that don't have assets to lend.

因此，这将使更多人更容易获得住房。

And as a result, it's going to make housing more accessible to more people.

这是设立政府贷款机构以支持住房购买的基本前提。

That was the fundamental premise of setting up a government lending agency to support the purchase of housing.

但随着时间快速推移多年，在我们今天这个高度流动、资本充足的市场中，基本现实是这些资本实际上是过剩的流动性，实际上可能推高价格。

But as you fast forward over many years, the fundamental reality in a very liquid, well capitalized marketplace that we have today is that that capital is actually excess liquidity that can in fact drive prices up.

就像我们在许多其他市场看到的那样，比如教育领域的学生贷款，或医疗领域的医疗保险、医疗补助、奥巴马医改等，当政府介入并提供资本以‘支持’市场并使其更易进入时，价格就会飙升。

And much like we've seen in many other markets like education with student loans or like health care with Medicare, Medicaid, Obamacare, and so on, when the government gets involved and provides capital to, quote, support a market and make it more accessible, the prices skyrocket.

因此，人们会使用房利美或房地美的贷款购买第一套住房，然后他们可以去买第二套或第三套，或者现在能买得起原本可能买不起的更昂贵的房子。

So people will use a Fannie or Freddie Mac loan to buy a first home, and then they can go buy their second home or their third home, or they can now afford to buy a more expensive home that they otherwise might not have bought.

久而久之，这会在市场中产生通胀效应。

And so it over time creates an inflationary effect in the markets.

我认为这是一个根本性问题：我们该如何摆脱这种恶性循环？

And I think that this is a fundamental question on, like, how are we gonna get out of this doom cycle?

因为从根本上说，我们正在增加建造新房的限制。

Because, fundamentally, we're adding restrictions for building new homes.

我们正在限制你在房产上的收益，同时向市场注入流动性推高房价，这一切造就了一场我们只能举手投降的完美灾难风暴。

We're capping the amount you can make on homes, and we're giving liquidity to markets to drive up the price of homes, all of which create this perfect storm of disaster where we're just raising our hands.

你知道我们怎么说吗？

And you know what we say?

请再多做些。

Please, do more.

如果政府采取更多措施，我可以明确告诉你一件事。

And if the government does more, I can tell you one thing for sure.

价格还会进一步上涨。

Prices are gonna go up even more.

所以我认为最具挑战性也最困难的事情之一就是站出来说：听着。

And so I think one of the the the challenging and hardest things to do is say, hey.

政府应该减少干预，想办法从这个局面中抽身。

Government do less and figure out a way to kinda back out of this situation.

话题转接。

Segue.

说说我亲眼所见的情况。

To what I'm seeing on the ground.

明白吗？

You know?

我曾先后在纽约、洛杉矶、旧金山生活过，现在大家都知道我住在德克萨斯州奥斯汀。

And I've I lived in New York, Los Angeles, San Francisco, and as folks know now, I live in Austin, Texas.

这个转接太完美了，大卫。

And if you perfect segue there, David.

这里确实有两个不同的国家。

There's really two different countries here.

在沿海城市，人们不被允许建造房屋，租金高得离谱，收入却没什么变化。

You have people living in coastal cities where you're not allowed to build units, and rent is incredibly expensive, and you make the same amount of money.

看看我在布鲁克林的成长经历，我晚上去上学。

If you look at when I grew up in Brooklyn, and I went to school at night.

我花了五年时间才从福特汉姆大学拿到学位。

I took five years to get my degree from Fordham University.

我有1.2万美元的学生贷款债务。

I had 12 k in student loan debt.

大学期间做IT工作，我每年能赚4到6万美元。

I was making 40 to 60,000 a year while I was in college doing IT.

这在当时算高薪了，但我在布鲁克林的公寓月租才500美元。

It's a big salary for back then, but my apartment in Brooklyn was 500 a month.

我住的是公寓，一间瘾君子住过的公寓。

I lived in an apartment, an addict apartment.

所以如果把这样的两个人放到今天的美国，他们年收入6到7万美元。

And so if you were to take two people like that in America today, they're making 60 to 70 k.

这是27岁受过大学教育的人的平均工资。

That's the average salary for college educated people who are 27 years old.

如果你住在奥斯汀，买房对你来说根本不是问题。

If you live in Austin, it is absolutely no problem for you to own a home.

让我来告诉你这有多容易，伯特。

Let me explain to you how easy it is for you, Bert.

我们在德克萨斯州奥斯汀有大量房源，而在休斯顿这一现象更为显著。

We have so many units in Austin, Texas, and in Houston, it's even more pronounced.

但是，尼克，把租金图表调出来看看，因为你们一开始就是租户，这很明显。

But, Nick, pull up the chart there just on rent because you start as renters, obviously.

奥斯汀的租金在过去三年下降了20%，因为我们建造了大量房源。

Austin rent has gone down 20% in the last three years because we build units.

当你建造房源、增加供应时，价格就会下降。

When you build units, when you have supply, prices go down.

而旧金山那些愚蠢的‘觉醒派’还在说什么‘你们在建豪华公寓’。

And the stupid people in San Francisco with their woke bull are like, oh, you're building luxury units.

让我告诉你们这些蠢货，建造豪华公寓会发生什么。

Let me tell you what happens, dumbasses, when you build luxury units.

那些原本住在教会区的富裕潮人会升级住进豪华公寓。

The the rich hipsters who are living in apartments in the Mission upgrade to luxury buildings.

我怎么知道？

How do I know this?

因为奥斯汀正在发生这种情况。

They're doing it in Austin.

如果你住在奥斯汀的破旧公寓里，看到这些新建的带豪华泳池、餐厅、咖啡馆和共享办公空间的漂亮公寓，你就会搬过去——这样原来的房源就空出来了。

If you live in a crummy apartment in Austin and you see these beautiful apartments being made with luxurious pools and restaurants, cafes, coworking spaces, you move to one of those and that frees up that unit.

在奥斯汀，如果你年收入13万美元（夫妻合计），你的房租最多只占收入的10%到15%，而且你还能存下10%的首付。知道距离市中心45分钟车程范围内25英里区域的房价吗？就是我住的自由堡，每平方英尺多少钱？

In Austin, if you make a $130,000 a year, your 130,000 as a couple, your rent is going to be 10%, 15% max of your income, and you're gonna be able to to make a down payment of 10% because the homes within 25 miles under forty five minutes of driving to the city center do you know how much they are per square foot, Freeburg, where I live?

每平方英尺200到300美元。

They are 200 to $300 per square foot.

你可以花3到30万到50万买一套三居室。

You can buy a three bedroom for 3 to 300,000 to 500,000.

你可以花50万买一套全新的弗里堡住宅。

You can buy a brand new one Freeburg for 500,000.

所以本·夏皮罗完全正确。

So Ben Shapiro is absolutely correct.

那些对本·夏皮罗不满的人是一群负债数十万美元的蠢货嬉皮士，他们每月要支付五六千美元的房租，永远无法摆脱房租压力或他们那些没用的文科学位。

The people who are upset at Ben Shapiro are a bunch of dipshit hipsters who went hundreds of thousand dollars in debt, are paying 5 or $6,000 a month in their rent can never get out from under their rent payment or their liberal arts bullshit degree.

如果你是聪明人，就去德克萨斯大学读书，毕业时几乎没有债务，住在一套适中的公寓里，付个首付，然后买一套50万美元的房子。

If you're a smart person, go to the University of Texas, graduate with little to no debt, live in a a modest apartment, put down a down payment, and buy a $500,000 home.

这个问题在德克萨斯州不存在。

This problem doesn't exist in Texas.

在很多市场都不存在这个问题。

It doesn't exist in a lot of markets.

昨晚晚餐时，总裁杰森问，我们能做些什么？

Last night at dinner, Jason, the president asked, what could we do?

关于学生债务有什么想法？

What are some ideas around student debt?

比尔·阿克曼有个好主意，就是我们需要让大学承担第一损失。

And Bill Ackman had a great idea, which was we need to put the university on the hook as the first loss.

是的。

Yes.

而且

And

他说他和他的建议是两万。

he and his suggestion was 20,000 was what he said.

我不知道这个数字是否正确。

I don't I don't know if that's the right number or not.

但他的逻辑很有道理——如果大学被迫为这些学位担保，并且知道他们将承担首笔损失（最高2万、3万或4万美元），它们就会更审慎地决定开设哪些学位课程，以及愿意为这些贷款担保多少金额。这将明显揭示许多学位其实毫无价值。

But the logic that he made, which I thought made a lot of sense, was if the universities are forced to underwrite these degrees and they know that they'll take the first dollar loss up to a certain amount, $20.30, 40,000, they'll be much more circumspect about what degrees they force onto people and the amount of money that they're willing to actually underwrite via these loans, and that will be a telltale sign that a lot of these degrees don't make any sense.

而现在，我们缺乏市场机制来告诉年轻人这一点。于是我们把他们全推进学校，以为这是正确的选择，结果他们被彻底压垮，永远翻不了身。

And right now, we don't have a market check to tell young people that, and so we push them all into school thinking that it's the right thing to do, and then they're just completely saddled, and they'll never get up.

你必须会算账。

You have to do math.

嗯。

Mhmm.

你必须掌握主动权，必须自力更生。

You have to have agency, and you have to be self reliant.

我上学时有些孩子——现在也有这种情况——觉得必须住校。

When I went to school, there were some kids, and it's happening now, where they think they have to live on campus.

他们认为必须读满四年。

They think they have to go for four years.

如果你有工作，花五年时间读完学位且不住校，毕业时的负债状况会大不相同。

If you have a job and you take five years to get your degree and you don't live on campus, your debt position when you graduate is gonna be much different.

如果你的工作是社会急需的，你能赚6万、7万甚至8万美元。

If you have a job that is, you know, in demand in the world, you'll make $60.70, 80 k.

如果你负债较少，住在阁楼公寓，稍微节俭些，做个财务表格——我就必须这么做，因为我父亲是酒保，母亲是护士，我得自己支付大学费用。

If you come out with less debt, if you live in an attic department, if you do a little austerity people and you do a spreadsheet of your finances, which I had to do because my dad was a bartender, my mom was a nurse, I had to pay for college myself.

我必须仔细考虑清楚。

I had to think it through.

纽约或旧金山那些精英疯孩子们觉得自己就该住在曼哈顿。

The these elite lunatic kids in New York City or San Francisco think they deserve to live in Manhattan.

你们并没有天赋的权利非要住在东京、法国、香港这些大城市。

You don't have a god given right to live in Tokyo, France, Hong Kong, or any of the major cities.

你们应该住在郊区。

You need to live in the suburbs.

你们需要通勤一小时去上学。

You need to commute an hour to school.

法国是一个国家。

France is a country.

在巴黎。

In Paris.

谢谢。

Thank you.

好的。

Okay.

对。

Yeah.

在巴黎。

In Paris.

抱歉。

Sorry.

如果你住在巴黎、伦敦，这些并非与生俱来的权利。

If you live in Paris, London, these are not your god given right.

各位，住在市中心一小时车程外，搭乘地铁吧。

Live an hour outside the city center and take the tube, people.

这些疯子还以为自己配得上。

These lunatics think they deserve it.

这就是为什么蒙达米和军团不

And this is why Mondami and the Legion don't

我们能不能把这期节目命名为《暴躁的查马斯和说教狂雅各布》？

Can we just title this episode grumpy Chamath and soapbox Jacob?

绝对不行。

Absoluox.

不。

No.

我只是

I just

你带了

Did you bring

你自己的

your own

演讲台 你是自带演讲台来东京的，还是在那儿买的？

soapbox did you bring your own soapbox to Tokyo, or did you buy one there?

演讲台。

Soapbox.

肥皂箱。

Soapbox.

肥皂箱。

Soapbox.

是啊。

Yeah.

你买了个日本肥皂箱吗？

Did you buy a Japanese soapbox?

你要去肥皂箱了。

You're going to Soapbox.

肥皂箱。

Soapbox.

你会惹恼那么多你大部分时间都在巴结的私募股权太太们吗？

You're going to upset so many of the private equity wives that you spend most of your time curing favor from?

他们不会明白我的意思。

They're not gonna know what I mean.

我还没遇到过任何私募股权太太。

I haven't met any private equity wives.

我不知道她们在哪，但说真的，这些孩子体格真棒。

I don't know where they are, but, literally, these kids are so built.

他们

They're

肯定在你的评论区里。

in the they're in your comments for sure.

我不认为他们在关注我

I don't think they're following me on

我确定

I'm sure

你的机器人军队为其中一些人买单

your your bot army pays for some of them to

他们没有，我是在告诉你实情

They're not I'm telling you something.

他们绝对没有在公开股票方面为J你竞选

They're not they're definitely not in p a public equity wise for J you run for

当你听的时候

when when you listen.

你真是个自恋狂

You're such a narcissist.

你最终会竞选某个政治职位，那将是

You will eventually run for some political office, and that'll be

signcom吗？

the signcom?

为J Cal准备的PEYs

PEYs for J Cal.

绝对

Absolutely.

你会是第一个捐款给我的，别开玩笑了

You'll be the first to donate to my Give me a break.

兄弟，知道为什么我会这么做吗？

Bro, know why I would?

因为你是我最好的朋友之一，我爱你。

Because you're you're one of my best friends, and I love you.

所以，没错，无需亲眼所见。

So, yes, sight unseen.

告诉我你需要多少，我就给你。

You tell me how much you need, I'll give it to you.

但这并不是因为我认为你是对的或你应该赢。

But it's not because I believe you're right or you should win.

明白吗？

Okay?

我...我马上

I'm I'm gonna be

很快。

very quick.

去纽约。

To New York.

周一过后就把它降下来。

After Monday, drop it down.

Mayorjason.com。

Mayorjason.com.

收藏。

Bookmark.

我要捐款给你。

I am donating to you.

这与哲学、意识形态或你潜在的获胜机会都无关。

It has no alignment to philosophy, ideology, or your potential chances of winning.

纯粹是为了

It's purely for

确实如此。

It is.

嘿，伙计们。

Hey, guys.

现在就预订吧。

Book it now.

我受制于大型科技和金融利益集团。

I'm controlled by big tech and finance interests.

我想关于负担能力的焦虑再次引发了H1B签证的热议。

I guess related to the angst about affordability was the flare up of h one b's again.

特朗普在福克斯电视台的劳拉·英格拉姆节目中关于H1B签证问题被强烈质疑后坚持立场，这段视频迅速走红。

Trump went viral after Laura Ingraham on Fox kinda pushed him pretty hard on h one b visas, and he stood his ground.

特朗普总统坚持立场，认为美国需要高技能工人。

President Trump stood his ground that we need high skilled workers in America.

这是你的25秒片段。

Here's your twenty five second clip.

我们稍后回来。

We'll be back on the other side.

H1B签证事宜不会成为你们政府的优先事项。

H one b visa thing will not be a big priority for your administration.

因为如果你想提高美国工人的工资，就不能让数万甚至数十万

Because if you wanna raise wages for American workers, can't you flood the country with with tens of thousands or hundreds of

外国工人涌入国内。

thousands of foreign workers.

不过确实需要引进人才——哦，我们这里明明有很多人才。

Also do have to bring in talent when Oh, we have plenty of talented people here.

你们没有。

You don't.

我们这里没有人才。

We don't have talented people here.

没有。

No.

你们不具备某些特定技能，人们必须通过学习获得。

You don't have you don't have certain talents, and you have to people have to learn.

你不能直接从失业救济队伍里拉人就说：我要把你安排进工厂。

You can't take people off an unemployment like, unemployment line and say, I'm gonna put you into a factory.

我们要制造导弹，或者我要安排

We're gonna make missiles, or I'm gonna put

你之前做过吗？

you do it before?

贾马尔，说说你的看法。

Jamal, your thoughts here.

我们显然已经反复讨论过H1B签证的价值和滥用问题，但现在这个话题又出现了。

We've obviously talked to a blue in the face about the value and the abuse of h one b visas, but it's coming up again.

而且，我想你也知道，在特朗普支持率低迷、民众因通胀居高不下而受苦的时候，这似乎又成了一个争议点。

And, I guess, you know, at a time when Trump's popularity is a little bit low and people are suffering with the inflation not going down, yada yada, this seems to be, like, another point of contention.

我认为我们必须彻底改革H1B签证计划。

I think that we have to overhaul the h one b program.

实际上昨晚晚餐时，霍华德·卢特尼克解释了这些滥用行为是如何发生的。

Last night at dinner, actually, Howard Lutnick explained how some of these abuses happen.

现行机制确实非常不公平。

It's really unfair, actually, how it works.

他描述的情况是：当H1B签证这个数量极少的申请窗口开放时，一家拥有30万海外员工的公司会代表所有员工提交申请，因为这些员工基本属于同类职位。

What he described is that when the application window opens for what is a very small number of h one b's, a company that has, you know, call it 300,000 employees abroad will apply on behalf of all 300,000 because they're all roughly the same kind of employee.

谁中签谁就能过来。

Whoever gets it gets to come over.

如果你提交30万份申请，显然比弗里布鲁克的公司、我的公司或杰森你只提交一份申请的公司有不成比例的优势。

Now if you're filing 300,000 applications, obviously, you have a disproportionately larger chance than Freebrook's company or my company or your company, Jason, who's filing one, obviously.

当这类情况发生，而你现在可以用数据来理解时，就必须修正它。

And so when those kinds of things happen and you can now use the data to understand it, you have to fix it.

所以我们需要立即做出一个非常实质性的明显改变：必须允许美国公司精准找到这些人才。

So that's one very material and obvious change we need to make right away, which is we have to allow American companies to find these folks and have it be very precise.

第二件事是我们将引入定价机制，让每家公司通过支付费用来明确表明该人才能创造的特殊经济价值，以及经过全力搜寻后仍无法在国内找到合适人选的事实。

The second thing is that we're introducing a price that each of these companies can pay for so that then you can signal clearly the disproportionate economic value that that person can create and the fact that after all the effort possible, you can't find that person here.

这就是为什么你愿意支付10万美元这个不小的数目。

And that's why you're willing to pay a $100,000, which is a nontrivial amount of money.

因此我认为，当那两件事——引入10万美元费用和解决签证申请滥用问题——都落实后，我们将在清理H-1B问题上取得重大进展，让情况重回正轨。

So I think that when both of those two things, the $100,000 thing is introduced and the visa application abuse is fixed, I think that we will go a long way to cleaning up the h one b thing and putting ourselves back in a much better place.

但目前确实存在大量滥用现象。

But right now, there's just a lot of abuse.

所以这个项目本身并没有按照应有的方式运作。

And so the program itself is not working the way it should have.

而且我认为这个问题大体上已经得到解决。

And and I think this has largely been solved.

我认为对特朗普政府来说这是个沟通问题，因为他们确实已经设置了10万美元的费用。

I think it's a communication issue for the Trump administration because they did put this $100,000 fee on it.

这项规定已经生效了。

That's already in effect.

我在CNBC的《周末创业》节目上十年来一直在强调这一点。

And I've been saying this here at CNBC, this weekend startup for a decade.

底层存在严重滥用现象，而顶层确实有必要性。

There's massive abuse on the bottom half, and there's it's necessary on the top half.

如果你引进的IT人才薪资在4万到8万美元之间，再叠加2万、3万甚至4万美元的费用根本不现实。

If you're bringing in IT people for 40 to $80,000, it's not viable to put a $20.30, $40,000 fee on top of that.

但如果是谷歌或Facebook引进年薪百万美元的AI博士，那么10万美元费用——或者说每年203万美元，无论最终是多少——根本微不足道。

But if you're Google or Facebook and you're bringing in a PhD in AI who's gonna get paid a million dollars, well, that $100,000 fee, $2,030,000 dollars a year, whatever it winds up being, is nothing.

这简直微不足道。

It's de minimis.

弗里德伯格，我要更进一步说。

They I take it one step further, Friedberg.

我认为我们应该把这些东西拍卖掉。

I think we should be auctioning these.

用一个更具体的例子来说。

Using a more narrow example.

是的。

Yeah.

比如说弗里德伯格，这是一家初创公司。

Let's say Friedberg, it's a startup.

他有资金，但必须归还。

He has capital, but he has to return it.

弗里德伯格，你会为找不到的合适人选支付10万美元吗？

Freiburg, would you pay a $100,000 for the right person that you could not find?

现在有没有哪些岗位让你觉得，天啊，我找不到高度专业化或尚未培养的人才？

And are there jobs where right now you're like, man, I can't find people that are highly specialized or not yet?

我能理解这种情况。

I could see that.

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是，当然能理解。不幸的是，在我的行业里我们能招募到这类人才，因为我们的领域非常特殊。

I mean, certainly, I could see it being I mean, unfortunately, I have there are we can recruit those sorts of people in my industry because we're very special.

不过，是的，我能理解。

But, yeah, I can understand.

特别是在软件相关领域，我完全能想象人们会这么做。

Like, particularly as it relates to software, I could see people definitely doing that.

是的。

Yeah.

而真正实现这一点的关键，也是特朗普的超能力所在，就是将成本中心转化为利润中心。

And the the the way to really do this, and this is Trump's superpower, is turning something that's a cost center into a profit center.

每当他做出英明决策时，我总是给予肯定。

I always give him credit when he does something brilliant.

最明智的做法是将这10万配额转为拍卖制。

And the brilliant thing to do is to take the 100,000 and make it an auction.

我会把其中一半公开竞标，届时谷歌、脸书和元宇宙等公司就不会按标价要10万配额，而是会说：

I would auction off half of these to the highest bidder, and then you would have Google, Facebook, and Meta saying, instead of give me, you know, a 100,000 of these at the rack rate, they would be saying, hey.

我需要10个配额。

I need 10 of these.

我肯定要出价100万。

For sure, I'm gonna bid a million.

我还需要100个配额。

I need another 100 of these.

我愿意出价7.5美元。

I'm willing to bid $7.50.

然后用这笔资金专门投入职业培训和再教育。

And then take that money and just allocate it to vocational training and retraining.

问题是本届政府存在两种不同派系。

You know, the problem is this administration has two different sides.

政府里有我非常钦佩的精英，比如鲁特尼克、萨克斯这些商界人士。

You have the brilliant people in this administration who I admire very much, like Lutnick and Sachs and the business people.

然后你想到我脑海中的那些蠢货，就是那些执行移民局特工和驱逐出境的人。

And then you have the knuckleheads in my mind, the people who are doing the the stuff that ICE agents and the deportations.

而H-1B签证就是最典型的例子。

And the perfect example of this has come up with the h one b visas.

他们接管了需要高技术工人的现代汽车工厂，却逮捕并驱逐了一群韩国人。

They took the Hyundai plant where you needed high skilled workers, and they arrested and they deported a bunch of South Koreans.

手段极其粗暴，非常不尊重人。

They in a very brutal way, very disrespectful way.

就在卢特尼克到处呼吁人们来投资建厂的同时。

At the same time that Lutnick is out there trying to get people to invest in the country and build factories here.

你不能一边用斯蒂芬·米勒那种疯狂的方式追捕和虐待移民，一边又说着'嘿'。

You can't be deporting people with Stephen Miller's deranged process of running people down and treating them inhumanely and then at the same time be saying, hey.

'我们希望你们能重新投资建设电池工厂'。

We want you to reinvest and build a battery factory.

现代汽车本来就有电池工厂。

Hyundai has a battery factory.

这些疯子跑去那里，把作为我们合作伙伴、正在帮助重建海军的韩国人铐起来逮捕。

These lunatics came there and arrested and chained up South Koreans who are our partners, are helping us rebuild our navy.

这就是为什么政府必须统一口径，而且必须由专业明智的人来发声。

This is where the administration has to speak with one voice, and it needs to be the professional smart people.

这就是又一个例证。

And this is another example of it.

他们明明已经解决了这个问题，却无法正确传达。

They they they already solved this problem, and they can't communicate it properly.

让贝松去那里，一遍又一遍地传达这个信息。

Let Besson go out there and communicate this over and over and over again.

现在这是个利润中心了。

It's a profit center now.

别逮捕那些想在这里建厂的韩国人。

And don't arrest the South Koreans who were trying to get to build factories here.

下一个议题。

Next topic.

本周发生了三次巨大的日冕物质抛射。

There was a massive three three massive coronal mass ejections this week.

这些是从太阳喷射出的带电粒子巨浪，主要是质子和电子。

These are giant waves of charged particles, protons and electrons mostly, that shot off from the sun.

你可以看这张图表。

You can see a a graph here.

你必须

You have to take

用更好的词因为

better words because

现在看起来像天王星。

That looks like Uranus right now.

你

Did you

吃过墨西哥卷饼吗？

ever burrito?

大量物质喷射出一部分

Mass mass ejections shot out one

物质向右喷射

Mass shot out right

来自天王星。

from Uranus.

好的。

Okay.

太阳会经历一个十一年的周期。

So the the sun goes through an eleven year cycle.

如你所知，太阳是一个巨大的等离子球体。

As you know, the sun is a giant ball of plasma.

等离子体是指粒子温度极高、能量极大，以至于电子、质子等粒子都处于分离状态。

Plasma is where the particles are so hot, they're so energetic that the electrons and the protons and all the particles kind of split apart.

这些亚原子粒子以极高的能量水平运动。

And so you have these subatomic particles moving around at extremely high energy levels.

当质子相互碰撞时，就会发生核聚变，这正是太阳产生能量的原因。

And when they when the protons smash into each other, that's what fusion is and that's what causes the energy that we get from the sun.

由于这些带电粒子（质子带正电，电子带负电）在如此密集的空间里高速运动，实际上会形成非常强大的磁场。

And because these are charged particles, protons have a positive charge and electrons have a negative charge, when they're moving around at this high energy in such a dense space, they actually create very powerful magnetic fields.

这些磁场会拉扯和扭曲太阳表面的物理结构。

And those magnetic fields pull and stretch the physics of the the surface of the sun.

随着时间的推移，这些磁场强度会周期性增强，偶尔会突然断裂，将大量粒子团块抛射到太空中。

And over time, there are these cycles where those magnetic field strengths get so strong that once in a while they snap and shoot out a chunk of those particles into space.

这就是驱动日冕物质抛射的基本物理原理，这些带电粒子以每秒数千英里的速度在太空中疾驰。

That is the fundamental physics that drives these coronal mass ejections, these big waves of charged particles that shoot flying through space at thousands of miles a second is how fast they move.

高能带电粒子波。

High energy waves of charged particles.

当它们撞击地球时，由于带电粒子与地球磁场相互作用，会扰乱地球磁场。

And then when they hit the Earth, because they're charged particles and we have a magnetic field around the Earth, they interact with the magnetic field and they disturb it.

地球磁场的这种扰动实际上会对GPS和通讯系统产生严重影响，甚至可能导致地表导电材料的短路。

And the disturbance of the magnetic field on Earth can actually have dramatic effects on GPS, on communications, and it can actually create shorts in conducting material on the surface of the planet.

多年来我们一直在讨论，如果某次日冕物质抛射规模足够大，某天可能会引发灭绝级事件——它们可能彻底摧毁卫星通讯。

So for years, we've always talked about there could be an extinction level event one day if one of these coronal mass ejections are so large, they could actually wipe out satellite communication.

它们可能使所有计算机瘫痪。

They could turn off all computers.

可能导致全球电网短路。

They could cause shorts in the electrical grids around the planet.

存在所有这些重大风险。

There was all these major risks.

因此人们经常讨论：这场大事件何时会发生？

So this is often talked about as, like, when's this big event gonna happen?

而本周就发生了一次非常重大的事件。

And this week, it was a very big event.

连续发生了三次主要的日冕物质抛射。

There were three major coronal mass ejections that happened in a in a row.

其中两次抛射合并后同时撞击地球，我们记录到了最高级别的G5地磁暴。

Two of them kind of combined and hit the Earth at the same time, and we had the highest level recorded geomagnetic storm, which was g five.

这场G5级太阳风暴严重干扰了地球的磁场强度。

So this g five storm caused massive disruptions in the magnetic field strength of the Earth.

幸运的是，虽然破坏报告不多，但我们得以在美国德克萨斯州以南地区欣赏到壮丽的极光——因为这些带电粒子在磁场作用下会向南北极移动，与大气层中的分子结合。

Fortunately, there was not a lot of reported damage, but we did get to enjoy the beautiful aurora as far south as Texas in The United States because these charged particles with magnetic field, they kind of move towards the North and South Pole, and then they combine with molecules in the atmosphere.

它们释放出光芒，你能看到那些绚丽的橙黄红绿紫色光波，如同从天堂倾泻而下遍布整个星球。

They release light, and you can see these beautiful waves of orange, yellow, red, green, purple lights that look like they're coming down from the heavens all over the planet.

这确实是令人惊叹的奇观。

It was really an amazing and spectacular sight.

从太阳风暴的角度看这是惊心动魄的一周，但给地球带来了绝美景色。

So it was a scary week from a solar storm perspective, but it created a beautiful view here on Earth.

以上就是本周地磁风暴现象的科学解释。

So that was the explanation for what happened with the geomagnetic storm this week.

但需要明确的是，这次日冕物质抛射没有造成其他负面影响。

But to be clear, there were no other adverse effects from the CME.

目前非洲有些小型网络通信中断的报告。

So far, there are some reports of communications going out in Africa on small networks and things like that.

我尚未听闻大规模卫星故障，这始终是此类事件的主要风险，因为高能粒子流可能导致卫星短路。

I did not hear about widespread satellite failures, which is obviously always a big risk with these things because these things can actually short out satellites.

其实这些质子云以极高密度移动...等等尼克，

I mean, these are clouds of protons moving very densely at actually, you know what, Nick?

你能调出...

Can you pull up?

这张图表很能说明问题。

This is one chart to look at.

这张图表实际上是以对数刻度显示的，意味着图表上每上升一级，数值就比前一级大十倍。

So this chart actually shows on a log scale, which means every step up on the chart is 10 times bigger than the number before it.

但你可以看到大约在伦敦时间11月12日午夜时分，顺便说那正是我从日本飞往旧金山登机前。

But you can see that right around midnight London time on November 12, which by the way was just before I got on the airplane to fly from Japan to San Francisco.

所以我当时确实在考虑要不要在这个时间登机。

So I was actually considering not getting on my flight around this time.

真的吗？

Really?

不过确实有个...

But there was a yeah.

非常认真。

Very seriously.

嗯，他不想在

Well, he didn't wanna have

他的航班上遇到大规模太阳耀斑爆发，基马斯。

a mass ejection on his flight, Kimath.

那本来会是

That would have been

非常糟糕的情况。

really bad.

你是担心GPS会失灵之类的吗？

Well, you thought, like, the GPS could go out or something?

不是。

No.

不。

No.

这种情况过去发生过，他们确实为GPS失效准备了冗余方案，但辐射水平会突然飙升。

So this has happened in the past and that they do have redundancy for the GPS going out, but the radiation level spikes

哦，明白了。

Oh, see.

当你在那么高的高度时，但仅限于高纬度地区。

When you're that high up, but only at higher latitude.

我当时正在查看我的飞行路径纬度，但他们实际上已经关闭了所有飞越北极的航班，因为那里的辐射水平会变得极高。

So I was looking at the latitude of my flight path, but they actually turned off all flights going over the North Pole because the radiation gets so high.

当磁通量如此剧烈时，特别是在北纬地区，飞机无法飞越北极。

You can't fly over the North Pole when you have this much magnetic flux happening, particularly in the Northern Latitude.

你可以在这张图中看到，红色条代表能量超过10兆电子伏特的移动质子，这虽然不算超高能量，但更可怕的是绿色条。

So you can see in this image that red bar is protons that are moving that have an energy greater than 10 mega electron volts, which is not a super high energy, but more scarily is the green one.

绿色条实际上代表100兆电子伏特。

The green one is actually 100 mega electron volts.

这是一个质子携带的巨大能量，能在微观层面造成严重破坏。

This is a massive amount of energy in a proton that can cause serious damage on a microscopic level.

例如，它能撕裂DNA。

So it can shred DNA, for example.

它还能破坏电路等等。

It can shred circuits and so on.

这是一组非常强大的带正电质子，卫星上的探测器会统计它们从太阳方向袭来时捕获了多少个这样的粒子。

So this is a very powerful set of positively charged protons, and they count how many they're picking up on these satellites where they have these kind of detectors as they come from the sun, how many of them they're hitting.

你可以看到这个异常的峰值，它从平常的水平——假设为1——一路飙升到了1000。

And you can see this extraordinary spike where it spiked up from normally you see, call it one to all the way up to a thousand.

所以它飙升了1000倍。

So it's spiked by a thousand x

哇。

Wow.

在五分钟内。

In five minutes.

这意味着带电质子以极高能量穿越太空撞击地球的自然背景效应出现了巨大增强。

And so this is a massive increase in the natural background effect of charged protons shooting at this extremely high energy through space and hitting Earth.

历史上曾发生过卡灵顿事件，那是有记录以来最强烈的一次。

There was that Carrington event, which is the the largest one ever recorded.

我相信你知道弗里德伯格的研究，那是19世纪的事。

I'm sure you're aware of Friedberg, like, the eighteen hundreds.

以今天的基础设施水平，如果发生那种级别的事件会怎样？

What would happen if we had that level of event today given the infrastructure?

因为那时候我们只有电报。

Because back then, we had telegrams.

对吧？

Right?

当时设备不多，但有些设备在卡灵顿事件中被烧毁了。

We didn't have a lot of equipment, but some of that equipment got fried during the Carrington event.

是啊。

Yeah.

我是说，这类事件完全可能导致卫星中的电子设备短路，使它们永久失效。

I mean, that's the sort of event that can absolutely short circuit electronic equipment either in satellites, and then they would be rendered permanently unusable.

如果它撞击地球表面也会如此，因为记住，保护地球的是我们拥有的磁场。

It can also if it hits the surface of the Earth because remember, what protects the Earth is the magnetic field we have.

地球周围存在磁场的原因是因为地球有一个铁核。

The And reason we have a magnetic field around the Earth is because we have an iron core at the Earth.

随着铁核旋转，它会产生磁场，我们很幸运拥有这个，因为那个磁场实际上就像一个盾牌。

And as that iron core rotates, it creates a magnetic field, and we're very lucky to have that because that magnetic field actually is like a shield.

它就像地球周围的力场，将带电粒子从地球射离，防止它们撞击地球表面，否则随着时间的推移会杀死地球上所有生命。

It's like a force field around the Earth, and it shoots charged particles away from the Earth and keeps them from hitting the surface of the Earth, which would kill all life on Earth over time.

这就是为什么我们不能在没有保护的情况下生活在月球表面。

That's why we can't go live on the surface of the moon without protection.

我们正在为卡林顿事件做准备。

We're we're preparing for a Carrington event.

比如，如果发生这种情况，你可以关闭所有设备。

Like, if it happened, you could turn off all the equipment.

不。

No.

比如电网之类的？

Like, power grids and stuff like that?

可能发生的情况是，这些电压尖峰实际上会导致微芯片和小型电线连接器的物理结构短路。

So what would happen is you could have these voltage spikes that can actually short circuit physically destructure the microchips, the little wire connectors.

所以这对文明来说是一个非常严重的风险，这就是为什么人们总是谈论这些太阳风暴是那些黑天鹅事件，那些百万年一遇的事件，或者那些可能让我们回到石器时代的事件，就像有些人说的那样。

So this is a very serious risk to civilization, which is why people always talk about these solar storms being those black swan events, those one in a million year events, or those one in a 100 events that could render us back into the stone age as some people say.

虽然具体概率尚不明确，但太阳确实存在一个十一年的活动周期。

It's unclear the probability of that, but the sun does go through an eleven year cycle.

在这个十一年的周期中，太阳活动会经历最低谷和最高峰。

And during that eleven year cycle, there's a minimum and a maximum.

目前我们正接近活动高峰期。

We're kinda close to the maximum right now.

因此我们能非常准确地预测这些事件每十一年发生一次。

So we are seeing these events very predictably every eleven years.

但这些事件的规模有多大，对我们来说仍是未知数。

But how big they are is something that's, you know, unknown to us.

我们尝试研究太阳动力学，但要准确预测这些日冕物质抛射的规模非常困难。

I mean, we try and study the dynamics of the sun, but it's very difficult for us to be very predictive about how big these CMEs are gonna be Amazing.

以及它们何时会发生。

When they're gonna happen.

所以我们必须在发生时保持高度观测，但通常只有几小时预警时间。

So we have to be on top of, like, observing as they happen, but then we only have a few hours to say, oh my gosh.

这东西正向我们袭来。

This thing's coming for us.

大家要警惕。

Beware.

所有人都要注意。

Everyone watch out.

务必小心。

Be careful.

但我们能做的准备非常有限。

But there's not very much we can do to prepare.

我要说的是，我相信基于电子的计算方式将在本世纪末被淘汰，取而代之的是基于光子的计算。

I will say I have a belief that I think electron based computing is gonna go by the wayside by the end of the century and be replaced with photon based computing.

我认为我们今天使用铜和半导体材料完成的大部分工作，都将转向光子材料和光子系统，最终在本世纪的某个时刻实现量子与光子系统的结合。

And I think we're gonna move most of what we do today with copper and semiconducting material over to photonic material and photonic systems and what will ultimately be quantum meets photonic systems probably some point this century.

当那一天到来时，这些风险就会消失。

When that happens, these risks go away.

但在当下，当我们仍依赖电子并通过铜线等传输电子时，我们面临着地磁风暴对地球和核心基础设施造成严重影响的巨大风险。

But for now, while we're relying on electrons and moving electrons around through copper wire and so on, we run the very strong risk of these geomagnetic storms having an adverse effect on the planet and on our core infrastructure.

Freiberg，我这周早些时候在东京见到你了。

Freiberg, I got to see you earlier this week in Tokyo.

我们一起吃了点天妇罗。

We shared a little tempura.

真是愉快的时光。

Good times.

是啊。

Yeah.

在东京的美好时光。

Good times in Tokyo.

确实有很多科技行业的侨民正前往东京发展。

Definitely a lot of expats making their way from the tech industry to Tokyo.

那里是个蓬勃发展的城市，科技行业也一片繁荣。

It's a booming town, booming tech scene.

许多美国人已经得出结论，大没收的时代已经来临。

There's a lot of people from America who have come to the conclusion that the great confiscation is upon us.

这就是我所说的

This is what I'm

称呼。

calling it.

大没收。

The great confiscation.

无论是加州还是纽约，他们都在觊觎你的钱包，所以人们现在寻找的不只是一个，而是两个逃生通道。

Whether it's California or New York, they're coming for your bags, and so people are now looking for not one, but two escape hatches.

一个主权州，比如美国境内的弗里德伯格，就像我过去两年所在的德克萨斯州，人们正在寻找国际出路。

A state a sovereign state, Friedberg, in The United States, like the great state of Texas where I hail from the past two years, and people are looking for an international.

每个人都在为自己办理护照或黄金签证。

Everybody's getting themselves a passport or a golden visa.

日本、利雅得——我过去两周待的地方，都是热门选择。

Japan, Riyadh, where I've spent the last two weeks, are amongst the top choices.

你看到我身后的这张图片了吗？

Do you see this image behind me?

这是马来西亚的森林城市。

This is that forest city in Malaysia.

这是我见过最疯狂的东西。

It's the craziest thing I've ever seen.

你去过那里？

You went there?

我

I

上周去的。

went there last week.

他们投入了1000亿美元建造这座岛屿，整座城市。

They put a $100,000,000,000 into building this island, a whole city.

这是巴拉吉拥有的东西吗？

This is the thing that Balaji owns?

不是。

No.

他租了一家酒店。

He he rented a hotel.

他们有家大型度假酒店。

They have a big resort hotel.

他包下了整间酒店。

He rented the whole hotel.

他就在那里运营他的网络帝国。

That's where he's running his network spool.

本质上他运营的是个线下版YC网络国家。

He's running essentially, like, an in person Y Combinator network state.

你支付一笔费用就包含公寓、餐饮、健身房，还能和志同道合的人一起创建新社会规则。

You pay one fee for your apartment, your food, your gym, and you hang out with other people who wanna be part of a new society with their own rules.

边缘地带还挺有意思的。

Kinda interesting on the margins.

是啊。

Yeah.

在这些地方与新加坡、东京之间，我遇到了一群非常有意思的人，他们可以说是科技前沿的探索者，觉得美国已不再是那片热土，正在寻找像西部拓荒时期那样的新天地。

Between that and Singapore and Tokyo, I mean, there was, like, a really interesting cross section of people that I would say are kind of on the frontier of tech that feel like it's not in The United States anymore, and they're looking for what feels like the Wild West.

我们能去哪里？

Where where can we go?

我们能在何处扎根？

Where can we put down roots?

我们能在哪里为新时代建立新家园？

Where can we establish a new town for a new era?

因为很多人认为美国正处于一个周期的尾声。

Because a lot of people view The US at the end of a cycle.

你看。

And it look.

虽然现在这个群体规模还不大，但它正在蓬勃发展。

It may not be a massive community today, but it's a burgeoning community.

这是个不断壮大的群体。

It's a growing community.

而且我觉得有个既有趣又可能令人不安的趋势——越来越多人希望在美国之外见证这些变革，并为此付诸行动。

And there's this really, I think, interesting, maybe scary trend line of folks, you know, wanting to kind of see this stuff happen outside The US and making an effort to

我要去别处扎根了。

I'm gonna downroots elsewhere.

我要为Vicuna建立自己的小社区。

I'm gonna start my own little community for Vicuna.

骆马毛与和牛，这是入场的两大硬性标准。

Vicuna and Wagyu, those are the two litmus tests for entry.

谢莫斯·阿波波利斯？

Shemoth Apopolis?

阿波波利斯？

Apopolis?

将会是

It's gonna be

你只能穿骆马毛。

You can only wear vicuna.

你只能吃和牛。

You can only eat wagyu.

波波利斯。

Popolis.

好了各位。

Alright, everybody.