马特·马汉认为自己如何能拯救加利福尼亚

作为州长，你是否有紧急权力或行动可以直接说：好吧，我要在一年内解决这个问题，还是必须与立法机构合作才能解决这些问题？

Are there emergency powers or action you can take as governor that can just say, you know what, I'm gonna fix this in a year or do you have to work with the legislature to solve these problems?

两者都需要。

A bit of both.

我的意思是，州长在推动预算流程方面拥有某些非常有力的手段。

I mean, the governor has certain levers that are very powerful driving the budget process.

还有否决权、舆论影响力，以及点名批评的做法，这些都非常有效。

There's the veto, the bully pulpit, just kind of naming and shaming is really powerful.

行政命令。

Executive orders.

还有任命权，州长可以任命三千人来管理所有这些委员会，这些委员会在执行法规时拥有极大的自由裁量权，但毫无疑问，最终你还是需要立法机构来做出改变，我认为许多民主党议员——我私下认识的不少人——都会承认，现在的问题已经失控，系统运转失灵。

The the appointments, I mean, the governor appoints 3,000 people who run all of these commissions that have incredible discretion over how to implement regulations, but there's no doubt that ultimately you need the legislative branch to to change, and I think that a lot of Democratic legislators, many of whom I know personally in private, will admit that things are broken, that things aren't working.

只是他们还没有公开表态，指出问题所在，承认整个体系已经崩溃，激励机制完全颠倒了。

There just hasn't been that willingness publicly to name what is going on, say that the system's broken, the incentives are are completely backwards.

我认为，作为州长，我有能力改变这场对话，帮助说服现有议员转变观念，或者选举出新的议员。

I think, you know, as governor, I'd be in a position to change the conversation, help either persuade existing legislators to think differently or elect different legislators.

你认为这是否也因为他们一旦公开表态，就会失去捐款人和资助他们的捐助阶层？

Do you think it's also because if they're public about it, they'll lose their donors and they'll lose their donor class that's supporting them?

在不确定是否能得到支持的情况下，很难贸然行动。

Well, it's hard to step out on a limb without knowing if you're going to have support for it.

在一个金钱至上的环境中，直接诉诸选民是很困难的。

It is difficult to just go direct to voters in an environment where money talks.

这是一个很大的州。

It's a very large state.

传达信息的成本很高。

It's expensive to deliver a message.

社交媒体降低了门槛。

Social media has lowered barriers.

我的一个赌注是，我们可以直接向选民传递这一信息，在真相上取得突破，揭示真正解决我们问题所需的东西。

That's part of my bet is that we can go straight to the voters with this message and get traction around around the truth, around what it takes to actually solve our problems.

但我知道人们为什么会选择稳妥的做法，而且被贴上标签确实不好受。

But it's it's, you know, I understand why people go with the sure the sure thing and it's it's not fun to be labeled.

当你为变革而斗争时，他们会给你贴上各种标签。

They will call you everything when you fight for change.

你是企业的叛徒。

You're a corporate sellout.

你是种族主义者。

You're you're racist.

你是各种各样的人。

You're whatever.

我的意思是，当你试图为变革而奋斗时，人们总会给你贴上某种标签，但我始终专注于现实世界的结果：住房成本、能源成本、学校质量、公共安全——这些像我成长的社区那样人们真正关心的事情。

I mean, there's always some label that people will ascribe when you try to fight for change, but I try to stay laser focused on the real world outcomes, housing costs, energy costs, quality of schools, public safety, the things that people care about in neighborhoods like the one I grew up in.

这必须是我们的北极星。

That has to be the North Star.

是的。

Yeah.

是什么导致了无家可归？

What causes homelessness?

这是个大问题。

It's a big question.

有几个原因。

There are a few things.

我的意思是，首先，你不能忽视我们破碎的住房市场，因为在那些房价低廉且住房充足的地方，即使人们有很高的成瘾率和精神疾病率，大多数人仍能留在室内，即使面临这些挑战。

I mean, one, you can't ignore our broken housing market because in places where housing is cheap and widely available, you can have high rates of addiction and mental illness and most people can remain indoors even even with those challenges.

你知道，如果真正从生命周期的角度来看，通常会发生的是，某人本就处于脆弱状态，可能是自己的选择，也可能是环境所致，比如失业、健康问题、成瘾、精神疾病，或者家庭暴力。

You know, typically what happens if you if you actually look at it as a life cycle issue is someone who's already vulnerable for some reason, could be of their own choosing, could be circumstances, but job loss, health issues, addiction, mental illness, you know, domestic violence.

人们会遭遇各种极其糟糕的事情，有时也会对自己做出一些糟糕的事。

There's a range of really awful things that happen to people and that people sometimes do to themselves.

在这些情况下，如果房租每月高达3000美元，你可能仅仅因为一张医疗账单、一次裁员，就很快无家可归，只能住在车里。

And in these circumstances, if the rent is $3,000 a month, you are just one medical bill, you know, layoff away from really having know, ending up in your car very quickly.

尤其是在加州，普通劳动者储蓄很少。

And and people, working people in California especially, don't have a lot of savings.

他们没有可以依靠的后盾。

They don't have something they can fall back on.

因此，加州的宏观成本结构表现为全美最高的住房成本、第二高的能源成本以及最高的汽油价格，这些因素对工薪阶层造成了不成比例的伤害，同时我们的教育体系也未能为孩子们充分准备未来的工作机会。

So the macro cost structure of California, the highest housing costs, second highest energy costs with the highest gas prices, which disproportionately hurts working people, an educational system that is preparing far too few of our children for the jobs of the future.

我们可以逐一列出这些问题，但正是这些因素制造了这种脆弱性和不稳定性，使得生活在边缘的人更容易流落街头、住在车里。

We can go through that list, but that is creating these conditions of of sort of vulnerability or fragility that means that people living on the edge are much more likely to end up in their car.

但我还要补充一点，我们面临着重大的公共政策失败。

But I would add that we have a massive public policy failure.

我们不仅破坏了住房生产市场——这是宏观层面的挑战，而且也没有建设足够的收容所和治疗床位。

Not only did we break the housing production market, which is the macro challenge, but we haven't built shelter and treatment beds.

对于那些因成瘾或心理健康问题而处于边缘状态的人群，我们的床位数量远少于其他州；而当人们真的无家可归时，这种情况本应是短暂的，且不应发生在户外，但事实上，我们在无庇护 homelessness 方面位居全国之首。

So for folks for whom an addiction or mental health issue is the the thing that has them on the edge, we have far fewer beds than other states, and then when people do become homeless, it ought to be brief and it should not be outdoors, and yet we we lead the nation in unsheltered homelessness.

全国范围内露宿在帐篷里的人中，超过40%都生活在加州，而加州人口仅占全国的约12%。

Over 40% of the people living outside in tents in the entire country live in California, which is only about 12% of the country's population.

我们没有建设收容所。

We haven't built shelter.

我们没有建设治疗设施。

We haven't built treatment.

我们没有采取必要措施迅速帮助无家可归者重返家园，为他们连接个案管理者，提供改变生活的工具，并督促他们对自己的生活转变负责。

We're not doing what we need to do to rapidly rehouse people, connect them to a case manager, give them tools to turn their lives around and hold them accountable for turning their lives around.

如果存在精神疾病，他们是否

If there's mental illness, should they

应该被强制送入某个机构接受治疗以康复精神疾病？

be committed to some facility to help them recover from their mental illness?

是的。

Yes.

简而言之，我认为必须能够强制对成瘾者和精神健康患者进行收治。

In short, I think you have to be able to involuntarily hold people for addiction treatment, mental health care.

如果某人反复拒绝帮助，并且对更广泛社区造成伤害——这常常发生，比如破坏公物、商店盗窃等行为。

If they're if someone is repeatedly refusing help, if they are harming the broader community, which is often the case, whether that's vandalism, retail, theft.

在我们市中心，窗户不断被明显患有严重成瘾和精神健康问题的人砸碎，这一直是个难题。

It's been a battle here in our downtown where windows are constantly being broken by people who clearly are suffering from serious addiction and mental health issues.

我认为我们应该给人们接受帮助的机会。

I think we should give people opportunities to accept help.

这必须是有尊严的。

It needs to be dignified.

必须提供比街头更好的替代选择。

There needs to be alternatives to the streets.

我们已经提供了2000多个室内安置点、临时住房，几乎都是带锁门的单人房间，保障人们的隐私。

We've stood up over 2,000 indoor placements, interim housing placements, almost all individual rooms with doors that lock, giving people privacy.

这些都是低门槛的街头替代方案。

These are low barrier alternatives to the streets.

可以带上你的伴侣、宠物和财物。

Bring your partner, your pets, your possessions.

我们正努力真正地贴近人们的需求。

We're really trying to meet people where they are.

好消息是？

The good news?

三分之二的人表示同意。

Two thirds of people say yes.

坏消息呢？

The bad news?

另外三分之一的人深陷于甲基苯丙胺和芬太尼等物质的毒瘾中，无法对自己的照护做出理性决定。

The other third is so deep in the throes of addiction to substances like meth and fentanyl that they can't make a rational decision about their own self care.

我认为，任由他们不断在街头、急诊室、监狱之间循环，最终死于过量用药，并非仁慈或进步的做法。

I believe that that is that it is not compassionate or progressive to leave them to endlessly cycle between streets, emergency rooms, jails, and ultimately die of an overdose.

我认为我们有道德责任介入，帮助他们戒毒，连接到心理咨询师，并给予他们扭转人生的机会。

I think we have a moral duty to intervene, help them detox, and get connected to a counselor and give them a chance to turn their lives around.

毒品来自某个地方，正在加剧这场危机。

Drugs are coming from somewhere fueling this crisis.

州长能应对毒品危机吗？

Can the governor address the drug crisis?

州长能将毒品从街头清除，逮捕毒贩吗？

Can the governor get drugs off the street, arrest drug dealers?

这是联邦层面的问题吗？

Is that a federal issue?

我们如何解决芬太尼、甲基苯丙胺、处方止痛药等毒品流入街头的问题？

How do we resolve the fueling of fentanyl, methamphetamines, prescription painkillers, etcetera that have made their way onto the street?

必须由各级政府共同参与，全力以赴。

It has to be all levels of government, all hands on deck.

大量的执法工作是在地方层面进行的。

So much law enforcement is done at the local level.

我们有一个约一千名警员的警察部门，他们在街头执行地方法律。

We have a police department with about a thousand officers out on the street enforcing local laws.

他们和消防员、社会工作者一样，都站在这场危机的最前线。

They're on the front lines of this crisis as are our firefighters, social workers.

当然，还需要联邦和州级的工具。

Certainly, federal federal tools and and and state.

我们有国民警卫队。

We we have the National Guard.

我们有加州公路巡逻队。

We have CHP.

我们这里有许多不同的工具。

We have a variety of of tools here.

但我清楚的是，我们可以通过干预公共吸毒行为，帮助人们接受治疗，并让他们为改变人生承担责任，从而减少需求。

What I do know though is that we can reduce demand by intervening in public drug use and getting people into treatment and holding them accountable for turning their lives around.

如果我们能让人们走上康复之路，就意味着街头少了一个购买这些危险产品的顾客。

If we get people into recovery, that's one more customer not available out on the streets to buy these dangerous products.

他们要循环多少次之后才需要被更长期地约束呢？

And how many times do they cycle through before they have to be held more permanently?

我认为这需要随着时间逐步扩大规模。

Well, I think it has to scale up over time.

在36号提案上，我是该州第一位公开支持36号提案的民主党市长。

With prop 36, I was the first democratic mayor in the state to come out in support of prop 36.

该提案的惯例是，第三次公共吸毒违法时，你可以选择接受治疗或监禁，这为一种不仅影响你自己的行为带来了后果。

The rule of thumb there is on your third public drug offense, you can be given a choice between treatment and incarceration, and that's bringing a consequence to a decision that doesn't just affect you.

我们可以讨论公民自由，但当你主动选择不参与治疗时，你往往会给更广泛的社区带来真实的成本和伤害。

We can talk about civil liberties, but when you are actively choosing not to engage in treatment, you are more often than not creating, imposing real costs, real harm on the broader community.

我们看到市中心的商家纷纷关门，公园里家庭无法安心游玩，因此我们

We've seen businesses shutter in our downtowns, parks where families can't play, so we It's

直接和间接的。

direct and indirect.

没错。

That's right.

我认为很多人没有考虑到这一点，而这至关重要。

And I think a lot of people don't account for that which is critical.

我想换个话题，谈谈能源成本。

I wanna shift topics to energy costs.

目前伊朗战争正在持续，导致本州能源和汽油价格急剧上涨，但过去几年里，加州州长纽森和州议会一直在推动本州的绿色能源政策。

There's an Iran war going on, so there's an acute spike in energy gas prices in the state, but over the last number of years, California governor Newsom and the state legislature have pursued an effort to drive green energy policy in the state.

加州的汽油税率大约为每加仑70美分。

California has a 70¢ per gallon roughly tax rate.

本周加州的汽油价格为每加仑5.50美元，而美国其他地区仅为3.50美元。

The California price for gasoline this week is $5.50 compared to $3.50 in the rest of the country.

我们做错了吗？

Did we get it wrong?

我们是否应该采取与推动绿色能源、驱逐雪佛龙不同的道路？

Should we have taken a different path in the state versus fighting for green, chasing Chevron out of the state.

雪佛龙现在已经迁往休斯顿。

Chevron's now relocated to Houston.

由于政策和官僚体系，他们正在关闭西海岸最大的炼油厂，那么我们该如何平衡气候变化与绿色利益呢？

They're shutting down the largest refinery on the West Coast because of the policies and the the bureaucracy and, you know, how do we balance this climate change green interest Yeah.

以及加州居民生活成本的切实负担。

With the the real hard cost for everyone on the price of living in the state.

是的。

Yeah.

我认为我们在监管解决方案上走错了路。

Well, I I do think we've gotten our regulatory solution here approach wrong.

我反对这种非此即彼的观点。

I would reject the notion that it's either or.

我不认为必须如此。

I don't think it has to be.

我认为创新是中间道路，是兼顾两者的办法。

I think innovation is the is the middle path, the way to do both.

你看，德克萨斯州提供的电力不仅便宜得多，而且比加利福尼亚州更清洁。

Look, Texas is providing dramatically cheaper power that is cleaner than California.

你看到像中国这样的国家大力投资太阳能、风能、储能和电动汽车。

You see places like China leaning heavily into solar, wind, storage, EVs.

正确的路径是投资、创新和基础设施建设，打造更智能的电网。

The the path is investment and innovation and infrastructure, a smarter grid.

我们在加利福尼亚州所做的是另一个典型例子：本意良好的法规却导致了巨大的意外后果。

What we've done in California is is another classic case of well intended regulations leading to massive unintended consequences.

我们就以炼油厂为例吧。

Let's just take the example of our refineries.

过去十年里，该州大部分炼油厂都消失了，因为我们有意通过监管将它们逼至消亡。

The state has lost most of its refineries over the last decade because we have intentionally regulated them out of out of existence.

所以实际发生的情况是我们仍然在进口石油和天然气。

And so what's actually happened is we still import oil and gas.

我们只是把炼油厂推到了别处。

We've just pushed refineries.

我们拥有最清洁、监管最严格的炼油厂，提供该行业中薪资最高的工作之一。

We have the cleanest, best regulated refineries with some of the highest paying jobs in the sector.

我们把这些炼油厂赶出了本州。

We pushed that out of state.

现在我们却要从数千英里之外进口同样数量的天然气。

Now we're importing the same amount of gas from thousands of miles away.

这更不环保。

It is dirtier.

它的碳足迹更大。

It has a bigger carbon footprint.

我们失去了那些高薪的好工作。

We lost those good high paying jobs.

我们失去了这些公司缴纳地方税的税基。

We lost the tax base of those companies paying local taxes.

这在各个方面都造成了打击，而且由于气候和气候变化是全球性现象，我们非但没有解决问题，反而让情况变得更糟，同时在经济上伤害了自己。

It has been a hit on every level and actually because climate and climate change is a global phenomenon, we we have not actually made the we've actually made the problem worse while hurting ourselves economically.

所以这恰恰是我们不需要的。

So that's the opposite of what we need.

我们需要的是双赢。

We need win wins.

我们应该在白天向电动汽车车主支付费用，大力激励他们在白天充电，因为那时加州的电力既便宜又充足，我们甚至有时会付钱给亚利桑那州帮我们吸收多余的太阳能；然后让他们在夜间插电，为电网供电，以应对大约下午5点到9点的用电高峰——此时我们必须启动燃气发电厂，因为电网电力根本不够用。

We should be paying EV owners today in the middle of the day, strongly incentivizing them to charge their vehicles in the middle of the day when power is so cheap and abundant in California that we sometimes pay Arizona to take our excess solar and then have them plug in at night to power the grid and get through that roughly 5PM to 9PM evening peak where we've got to start firing up gas power plants because there just isn't enough power on the grid.

所以我们需要更聪明一些。

So we need to be smarter.

我们需要投资创新和基础设施，而不是通过监管把我们仍然依赖的能源产业驱逐到州外。

We need to invest in innovation and infrastructure, not regulate energy sources out of state that we still rely upon.

但这很难。

But it's hard.

所以现在加州每加仑有70美分的燃油税。

So now we've got the 70¢ a gallon tax in California.

州议会已经通过了一系列法案，不断推高这项税收。

The legislature has passed a series of bills to to make that tax go up and up and up.

现在他们甚至在讨论进一步提高税率。

Now they're talking about increasing it even further.

这是最不公平的税种，甚至比本就相当累退的销售税还要不公平。

It's the most regressive tax imaginable because it's even worse than a sales tax which is already fairly regressive.

但你知道，高收入、更富裕的人群已经率先采用了电动车。

But as you know, higher income, wealthier people have already adopted EVs.

他们根本不用交这项税。

They're they're not paying this tax.

这确实对普通人有效，尤其是在我长大的沃森维尔这样的小镇。

It's working folks, particularly in towns like Watsonville where I grew up.

我的意思是，当我还是个孩子的时候，好吧。

I mean, when I was Okay.

高中时经常要

In high

跑很远。

school a lot.

我上学要单程开50英里，我父母上班也要往相反方向开50英里。

I had to go 50 miles one way for high school and my parents went 50 miles the other way for their jobs.

所以这项税收 disproportionately 地伤害了工薪阶层。

So it disproportionately hurts working people.

我的建议是，我们首先暂时取消汽油税，为那些为一场他们并未要求的战争付出代价的工薪家庭提供即时缓解，而他们却 disproportionately 承担了这些成本。

My proposal is that we, to start, temporarily suspend our gas tax to provide immediate relief to working families who are paying the price for a war that they didn't ask for and they're disproportionately paying the price.

我会暂时取消它，但我们必须对此保持理智上的诚实。

I would temporarily suspend it but we have to be intellectually honest about this.

这是目前我们铺设和维护道路及交通基础设施的主要收入来源。

It is our primary source of revenue for paving and maintaining roads and our transportation infrastructure.

我们需要改变这种方式，而不是继续依赖汽油税。

We will need to shift how we do this rather than being a gas tax.

首先，过去六年中，一般基金增加了75%，因此我很有信心，在一个年支出达3500亿美元的州，我们完全有能力在不惩罚工薪家庭的情况下铺设和维护道路。

First of all, the general fund is up 75 in the last six years, so I'm pretty confident that in a state that's spending $350,000,000,000, we can afford to pave our roads without punishing working families.

但我还认为，随着时间推移，随着电动汽车的普及，我们必须找到一种更智能的方式收取基本使用费，让使用道路的人为道路维护付费。

But I also think over time, as EV adoption increases, we'll have to find a smarter way of charging a basic user fee so that people who use the roads pay to maintain them.

加州与住房及气候变化问题相关的另一项重大开支是房屋保险费用。

One of the other big costs in California related to housing and related to this climate change question is the cost of insurance for your home.

去年，一场大规模野火蔓延，摧毁了洛杉矶大片区域。

We have this massive wildfire that spread, destroyed a large part of areas in Los Angeles last year.

结果，许多房屋保险公司已退出该州。

And as a result, many of the home insurance companies have left the state.

因为我家附近有很多树，我的房屋被认定为风险过高，所以我刚刚失去了房屋保险保障。

I just lost coverage on my home because I live near a bunch of trees, so my house is deemed too risky to have coverage.

我很幸运，我没有房贷需要担心保险失效的问题，但这对加州来说正变得越来越沉重的负担，因为州政府不得不介入，建立一个规模越来越大、财务和会计上都难以承受的保险池。

And I'm fortunate in that I don't have a mortgage that I've gotta deal with the loss of of insurance coverage, but this is becoming an increasing burden for the state of California because the states had to step in and create a bigger and bigger insurance pool that financially and accounting wise, the state can't really afford.

是的。

Yeah.

我们该如何解决房屋保险成本这个问题？

How do we solve this problem of the cost of homeowners insurance?

在激励保险公司回归，或建立资本充足、能够真正承担赔付而不必在危机时向联邦政府求助寻求救助的保险池方面，正确的结构性解决方案是什么？

What's the right structural solution here for either incentivizing the return of insurance companies, creating an insurance pool that's well capitalized and can actually afford to make the payouts instead of needing to go to the federal government when there's a crisis and ask for a bailout?

我们该如何解决加利福尼亚州的这个问题？

How do we fix this problem in California?

我认为，未来的策略包含几个组成部分。

I think there are a few components to the strategy going forward here.

第一，我们必须重建私人保险市场。

Number one, we have to rebuild the private marketplace.

90%的房主，甚至更多，可以以可负担的价格由私人保险覆盖，我们必须通过吸引保险公司回归、允许它们合理定价风险并提高风险评估的精细度来重建这一市场部分。

90% of homeowners, maybe more, can be covered by private insurance affordably and we have to rebuild that part of the market by bringing them back, allowing them to appropriately price risk and creating more granularity.

如果你愿意——也许你并不愿意——但如果你愿意清除房屋周围100英尺范围内的树木，你就应该支付更低的保费。

If you're willing, and you may not be, but if you're willing to remove those trees within a 100 feet of your home, you should pay a lower premium.

如果你更倾向于保留这些树木，你就应该支付更高的保费。

If you prefer to have the trees there, you should pay the higher premium.

因此，更精细的定价，允许对风险进行合理定价，至关重要。

So more granular pricing, allowing appropriate pricing of risk is is just really important.

对于那5%到10%位于山丘、植被茂密区域的房屋，首先我们需要思考：在这些地方究竟该允许建设多少新房，可能并不多。

Now, for the five to 10% of homes that are up in have, you know, in the in the in the hills, heavily wooded areas where there's lots of vegetation, we'll have to have higher first of all, when you build, there's a question of how much more we should be able to build out there, probably not a lot.

你使用的建筑材料必须具有防火性，而且你需要支付高得多的保险费，以覆盖火灾发生的实际概率和重建成本。

What materials you use, they need to be fire resistant and you'll have to pay much higher insurance just to cover the true cost of of the likelihood of a fire and the cost of replacement.

但另一方面，州政府必须在植被管理方面承担更多责任。

The other piece of this though is the state has to take more ownership for vegetation management.

我们在火灾应对和恢复上每花1美元，就要在预防上花8美元，而许多城市化区域因靠近密集植被而面临风险，但州政府尚未承担起清理的责任。

We spend $8 in fire response and recovery for every $1 we spend on prevention and there are plenty of urbanized areas that are at risk because they're proximate to dense vegetation that the state has not taken ownership for clearing.

是的，这应该与联邦政府合作进行。

Yes, it should be in partnership with the federal government.

如果是联邦土地，我们就应该让联邦政府对此负责。

If they're federal lands, we should hold the federal government accountable for doing it.

但我刚参观了阿尔塔德纳和帕利塞兹，与那里的房主们进行了交流，他们对重建进展缓慢感到非常沮丧。

But I just toured Altadena and Palisades, met with the homeowners there who are incredibly frustrated about the lack of rebuilding.

没有人统筹这件事。

No one is quarterbacking this.

如果你今天去帕利塞兹走一走，会看到又长出了五英尺高的植被，而这片区域的人们正试图重建家园，却没人管理这些植被。

And if you go walk the Palisades today, you will see once again vegetation that's five feet tall that hasn't been managed in an area where people are trying to rebuild their homes.

所以州政府必须挺身而出。

So the state has to step up.

作为州长，我会成立一个专门致力于修复保险市场的特别工作组；如果州政府愿意投资于植被管理以降低灾难性损失的风险，长期来看保费会下降。

As governor, I would create a a task force that just focuses on fixing the insurance market, and if the state will invest in vegetation management to reduce the risk of catastrophic loss, you're gonna see premiums go down over the long term.

我的意思是，州政府设定费率，然后告诉保险公司该收多少钱，却还指望他们能继续提供服务，即使这样做根本赚不到钱，这简直荒谬。

I mean, I think it's insane that the state sets rates and then tells the insurance companies how much to charge and assumes they're gonna stick around and keep charging it if they can't make money doing it.

为什么不让市场来决定呢？

Why not let the market decide?

有数百家保险公司，如果它们能自主定价，而不是由州政府强制规定费率，就会通过价格竞争来争取客户，价格自然会下降。州政府应该决定任何公司该收多少钱，这种想法本身就是个问题。

There's hundreds of insurance companies that if they were able to set their own rates and not have to have the state dictate the rate, they would compete for price and price would come This idea that the state should be determining what companies should charge for anything is a problem.

但从根本上说，在

But fundamentally in the

保险

insurance

市场，这实际上把所有保险公司都赶出了该州。

markets, it's literally chased every insurer out of the state.

我只是不明白，这种

I just don't understand, like, how this

是的。

Yeah.

这种价格控制方式。

These kinds of price Yeah.

正如我们所见，这在实践中行不通。

Don't work in practice as we've seen.

当我这么说时，我的意思是我们必须能够合理地定价风险。

And when I that's what I mean by saying we have to be able to appropriately price risk.

保险公司需要能够收取反映真实风险和成本的费率。

Insurance companies need to be able to charge rates that reflect the true risk and cost.

我认为应该大力激励他们，甚至要求他们对允许房主采用最佳实践从而降低保费负责。

I think they should be strongly incentivized, if not held accountable for allowing homeowners to adopt best practices and thereby reduce their premiums.

我认为有一部分人可能需要加入某种公共保险选项并缴纳保费，因为他们根本无法通过市场获得保障，或者由于居住地的原因根本买不到保险。

And I think there's a subset of folks who may need to be on and pay into a public option of some kind because they just won't be covered by the market or perhaps they have to choose that based on where they live they won't have insurance.

我不知道，但我认为不能强迫其他人支付天价保费，只为保障那个最危险、最昂贵的最后一家房屋，这太不合理了。

I I don't know, but I don't think you can force everybody else to pay exorbitant rates to ensure that we cover the last riskiest home that's gonna be the most expensive Yeah.

来覆盖。

To cover.

是的。

Yeah.

这根本就是一种不合逻辑的安排。

It's just it's an illogical setup.

好吧，我们来谈谈州内另一个重要的责任问题。

Well, look, let's shift to one of

州内另一个重要的责任问题。

the other big liability questions in the state.

这是我关心的一个问题，虽然不能说是最主要的，但我观察到它可能会成为我们未来发展的关键驱动因素。

It's the one I care I wouldn't say the most, but it's one that I've observed may end up being a big driver for what's ahead for us.

加利福尼亚州的公共雇员退休系统，即CalPERS和CalSTRS，为大约300万加州公共部门员工提供退休福利。

California's public employee retirement system, so CalPERS and CalSTRS, they provide the retirement benefits to roughly 3,000,000 California public workers.

这两个投资基金中大约有1万亿美元的资本，用于支持这些退休人员。

And there's roughly a trillion dollars of capital in those two investment funds that are meant to support those retirees.

它们的年均回报率约为7%，而标普500的年均回报率则为11%。

They've been making about 7% a year compared to the S and P making 11% a year.

目前的会计估算显示，未来在支付法律义务的退休福利时，资金缺口可能在2500亿至3000亿美元之间，有些估算甚至高达1万亿美元。

And the current accounting estimates that they're gonna be short, by some estimates, 250 to 300,000,000,000, by other estimates as high as a trillion dollars in the years ahead in paying out the benefits that they're legally obligated to pay to public employees as they retire.

你不能随意更改这些福利。

And you can't just change those benefits.

州最高法院的一项判决已明确指出，你不能撤销已经承诺给员工的福利。

There's a state supreme court case that's made that known that you can't go in and rescind benefits that you've promised someone.

因此，你只能承担这一负债，而由于这些是公共实体，如果真达到这一规模，加州纳税人最终将背负上万亿的债务。

So you are stuck with that liability and because they're public entities, California state taxpayer is ultimately gonna be stuck with a trillion dollar liability if that's what it comes to.

我们怎么解决这个该死的问题？

How do we fix this frigging problem?

是的。

Yeah.

我也很担心这个问题，而且我非常熟悉，因为我们曾在圣何塞应对过养老金改革。

I'm worried about it as well and I'm intimately familiar with it because we've had to tackle pension reform in San Jose.

几年前，当我们的未筹资养老金负债开始吞噬我们的普通基金时，我们就像是矿井中的金丝雀。

We were sort of the canary in the coal mine quite a few years ago as our unfunded pension liabilities began eating up our general fund.

即使在养老金改革之后，今年圣何塞的普通基金中仍有19%用于支付直接从预算中扣除的未筹资养老金负债。

Even today, after pension reform, 19% of our general fund in San Jose this year goes to paying an unfunded pension liability that just comes off the top.

也就是说，每5美元中就有1美元首先用于支付我们对退休人员的义务。

That is one out of every $5 goes first to our obligation to retirees.

而且，我并不责怪退休人员或那些倡导者。

And again, I don't blame the retirees or those who advocated.

真正的问题在于那些没有做数学计算、没有意识到数学模型已经失效，却因为知道等账单到期时自己早已离职而选择掩盖问题的政治家。

It's politicians who didn't do the math, didn't recognize when the math wasn't working out and swept it under the rug because they knew they'd be long gone by the time the bill came due.

所以，你看，这里实际上只有两个选择。

And so, look, there's there's really only two options here.

一个是转向私营部门所采用的确定缴费模式。

One is to move toward a defined contribution model as we have in the private sector.

你可以在全世界看到，雇主和雇员共同缴纳。

You see all over the world the employer and the employee pay in.

资金被投入市场。

It's put in the market.

它需要随着时间增长。

It needs to grow over time.

人们需要计算自己的储蓄和你的账户。

People need to calculate their savings and their You see your account.

你跟踪它。

You track it.

你跟踪它。

You track it.

你可以提高你的缴款比例。

You can up your contribution level.

如果我们转向这种模式，对不起，指的是私营部门。

If we were to move to that, the private sector I'm sorry.

公共部门需要提供强有力的匹配，我认为挑战在于此。

The public sector would need to be a a strong match and I I think the challenge is this.

我认为在政治上这不太可能发生。

I don't think politically that's likely to happen.

我们在圣何塞所做的，可以作为州级的范本，就是进行了良好的谈判，但我们不得不诉诸公投。

What we've done in San Jose, which could be a roadmap for the state, is we negotiated well, we had to go to the ballot.

我们经历了诉讼。

We went to there were lawsuits.

这是一个非常混乱的过程。

It was a very messy process.

我认为需要更好地处理。

I think it needs to be better handled.

但实际上，我们为新员工建立了一个不同的养老金体系，规定：当你加入时，这就是一个规模适中的养老金体系应有的样子。

But effectively, we created a different pension system for new employees that said, as you come in, this is what a right sized pension system needs to look like.

我们将要求员工和雇主从一开始就缴纳更多资金。

We're going to have the employee and the employer pay in more upfront.

我们会对我们预期的回报更加现实。

We will be more realistic about the returns we're expecting.

如果回报表现不佳，我们会更快地进行调整。

We'll adjust over time faster if the returns are underperforming.

我们聘请了更好的基金经理，他们被强烈激励去做出明智的投资并推动资产增长。

We've brought in better fund managers who get who are heavily incentivized to make smart investments and grow the the the investment.

更重要的是，如果回报未达目标，差额部分将由城市（即纳税人）和员工各承担一半，以弥补损失的福利。

And then most importantly, if our if the returns fall short, the the delta, the gap is covered fifty fifty by the city, meaning the taxpayers and the employee in terms of lost benefits.

因此，如果我们未能实现目标，双方将共同承担后果。

So there's shared pain on the backside if we miss our targets.

那我们现在的人员该怎么办？

And what do we do for what we have now?

由于你提到的法律限制，这让我们能够做到的是——我并不是说这完美无缺，但就法律和政治现实而言，这是我们所能达成的最佳结果：我们正在制定一条长期路径，逐步清偿第一层级员工——也就是所有老员工——的所有未筹资负债。

Well, what that has allowed us to do because of the legal limitations that you've mentioned is, and I'm I'm not saying it's perfect, but this is just legally and politically what we were able to get to is the best outcome we were able to get, is that we're on a long glide path of paying off all of the the unfunded liabilities for the tier one employees, all of those older employees.

这是一个二十年的过程。

It's a twenty year process.

到2040年代初，圣何塞将彻底还清这笔债务。

By the early twenty forties, San Jose will have cleared the debt.

我们的普通基金将变得充裕。

Our general fund's gonna be flushed.

我们将增加人员配备和服务水平。

We're gonna be increasing staffing and service levels.

而你在这里会更早感受到这些变化。

And you'll start to feel that here much sooner.

实际上，今天我们正处在未筹资负债成本的峰值，因为我们已经服下了这剂苦药，现在我们将开始一条缓慢的下滑路径：每年普通基金都会多出一点空间，因为我们已经咬牙承担了这一切。

We are actually roughly at peak cost for unfunded liabilities today because we took the medicine and now we'll start that slow glide path where each year there'll be a little more room in our general fund because we've actually bit the bullet and took this on.

那么，你打算如何为这条下滑路径提供资金呢？

Well, I think that's like how do you fund that glide path?

我们的预算可能有一些误差空间，这取决于我们的支出水平。

It may be the case that our budget has some margin for error, let's say, because of how much we're spending.

我们来统计一下数据吧。

Let's just do the statistics.

加州州长纽森今年提出了3490亿美元的预算。

California governor Newsom has proposed a $349,000,000,000 budget this year in the state.

这比2090亿美元增长了近两倍，比新冠疫情前一年增加了75%左右。

That's up from 209,000,000,000, so almost two x, 60%, 70%, 80% more, 75% more than the year before COVID.

而十年前，这一数字仅为1100亿美元。

And that's up from 110,000,000,000 ten years prior.

所以我们从1100亿增长到了3500亿。

So we went from 110 to $3.50.

从那时到现在，仅仅过了几年，我们的支出就增长了3.5倍。

3 and a half x is how much we're spending since, you know, feels like yesterday, you know, like just a couple years ago.

是的。

Yeah.

尽管拥有全国最高的税率和最大的税收基础，今年加州州预算仍面临350亿美元的赤字。

Despite having the nation's highest tax rates, the largest revenue base, we're still looking this year at a $35,000,000,000 deficit California state budget.

发生了什么？

What happened?

怎么会变得这么糟？

Like, how did this get so bad?

你认为这其中有多少是欺诈、浪费和滥用？

And how much of this do you think is this term of fraud, waste, you know, abuse?

这些钱到底花到哪里去了？

Like, where is this money going?

一部分是

Part of

我们之前提到过，我们以超出实际承受能力的速度提高了公共部门员工的薪资、养老金义务以及退休后医疗福利，而我们对此一直不够诚实。

what we've done is something we talked about earlier which is we have increased our our pay for public sector employees and our our pension obligations and and post retirement health benefits at a faster rate than we could actually afford and we haven't been honest with ourselves about that.

但资金流失的另一部分原因，是当经济状况良好时，我们不断增设新项目、增加人员编制，导致官僚体系不断膨胀。

Part of where the money's gone though is is is really just a sprawling bureaucracy that when we, in good years, have more money, we create new programs, we add headcount.

过去六年里，加州的人口基本保持稳定。

The state's population has stayed flat over the last six years.

支出增长了75%，正如你所指出的，州雇员人数也增加了，我认为超过了20%。

Spending is up 75%, as you point out, and head count in state employees is up, I believe, over 20%.

我们正在增加更多的州雇员，把更多资金投入公共项目，但这些项目并不是从‘我们需要什么成果，以及如何最高效地实现这些成果’这一前提出发的。

So we're we're adding more state workers, we're pouring more money into public programs that aren't starting from the premise of what is the outcome we need and how do we most efficiently get there.

我认为，加州现在该进行一次零基预算的审视了：我们真正需要哪些成果？我们花的钱真的在实现这些成果吗？还是只是在资助一个庞大臃肿的官僚体系——因为每年增加2%、3%的编制、给每个人涨4%的工资，这样简单得多？

I mean, it's time for California to go through an exercise of zero based budgeting and say, what are the outcomes we need and are we actually spending dollars to achieve those outcomes or are we just funding a sprawling, bloated bureaucracy where it's just easier to add 2%, 3% head count every year, give everybody a 4% raise and call it a day?

我认为，这基本上一直是我们的做法：只要收入增加，我们就给所有人加薪、多雇人、启动几个新项目。

And I think it's it's that's generally been the approach is whenever revenue's up, we just kind of give everybody a raise, hire more people, initiate a few new programs.

我们从不回归基本问题：如果我们手头有这些资源，需要达成这些成果，我们是否真正优化了支出以实现这些目标？

We never go back to basics and say, well, if this if these are the resources we have and these are the outcomes we need, are we really optimizing our spend for those outcomes?

答案是否定的。

And the answer is no.

我们并没有。

We're not.

作为州长，你能推行这种重组和零基预算吗？还是说你必须与立法机构合作？毕竟他们都有自己的特殊项目，资金流向他们所在的县、他们的朋友、他们的捐助者。

Can you do that rift restructuring, zero based budgeting as governor or do you need to do this in partnership with the legislature that all has their special programs that they fired up where money's flowing to their local county, money's flowing to their friends, money's flowing to their donors?

你究竟该如何实施呢？

How do you actually execute this?

嗯，州长，正如我之前所说，我认为第一步是选举一位务实、独立的州长，他理解这个问题并愿意去解决它。

Well, governor, I think, yeah, as I said before, I I think electing a pragmatic, independent minded governor who's willing to who understands this problem and is willing to tackle it is step one.

这一步是必要的，但还不够。

It is necessary but insufficient.

最终，我们必须建立一个更温和的立法者联盟，他们理解这个系统有多糟糕，并愿意去做艰难的事。

Ultimately, we have to build a more moderate coalition of legislators who understand how broken the system is, who are willing to do to do hard things.

我不认为这一切能一夜之间发生，但州长手中有很多工具可以选用。

I don't I don't think that this just happens overnight, but the governor has a lot of tools that he or she can choose to use.

你知道，你确实主导着预算过程。

The, you know, you you do drive the budget process.

但最终，你还是需要立法机构的支持。

Ultimately, you need legislative support for it.

你拥有强大的舆论平台。

You have the bully pulpit.

你可以以一种完全不同的方式管理州政府机构。

You have the ability to manage state agencies in a very different way.

州长有权任命3000人来管理州级官僚体系，他们要么带着按部就班的心态上任。

The governor appoints 3,000 people to run state bureaucracies that can either come in with the mindset of business as usual.

我就坐在办公桌后面。

I'm gonna sit behind a desk.

我们注重流程。

We're process oriented.

或者他们可以被问责，也许员工人数根本不需要3000人。

Or can be held accountable and maybe it should be 3,000 employees.

也许我们应该精简人员数量。

Maybe we should slim how many people it is.

但可以明确告知他们：我们需要达成哪些成果。

But can be told, here are the outcomes we need.

告诉我们，去实地了解情况，深入到地方层面，花时间与学区、城市、县镇的工作人员交流，那里才是资金真正惠及民众、真正落地的地方，然后回来提出如何改革这些体系，让我们花的每一分钱都能获得更大回报。

Tell us, you know, go ground truth these, go down to the local level, spend time with the school boards, the cities, the counties where all the money actually meets the constituent, where the rubber hits the road, and come back with answers on how to reform these systems to get more for what we're spending.

如果你无法实现更激进的目标，我们会找别人来接手。

And if you can't hit more aggressive goals, we'll bring in someone else who can.

我们需要一种全新的思维模式来运作我们的政府机构。

We need a different mindset for how we operate our government agencies.

你所说的与其他人截然不同，而目前其他人最强调的一点是，他们希望增加项目和支出，尤其是在医疗保健领域。

What you're saying is starkly different from what others are saying and one of the biggest points that others are making right now is that they wanna increase programs and increase spending particularly in healthcare.

那你对政府提供的医疗保健怎么看？

So what's your view on government provided healthcare?

加利福尼亚州的所有医疗保健都应该是免费的吗？

Should all healthcare in California be free?

现在有一个强大的运动和重大的立法努力，试图实现这一目标。

There's a big movement, a big legislative effort to try and make this the case.

这在经济上合理吗？

Does this make economic sense?

我们负担得起吗？

Can we afford it?

我们究竟该如何实现？

How do we actually do it?

还是你觉得这应该保持为私人市场主导？

Or do you think that this should remain a private market effort?

我认为加州建立一个由政府全额资助的全民免费医疗体系是不现实的。

I don't think it's realistic for California to create a a single state run free healthcare for all system.

我只是，我不理解。

I just, I I don't understand.

我知道我党内许多对手，也就是民主党人，正在提出这个方案。

I I know my, many of my opponents in my party, Democratic party, are proposing this.

我认为我们对如何降低成本已经有了相当清晰的认识。

I think we have a pretty good sense of how to reduce cost.

我们只是需要愿意去实施。

We just have to be willing to do it.

价格透明和竞争可以将医疗成本降低百分之五到十。

Price transparency and competition could bring down costs in health care by five to 10%.

预防性护理。

Preventative care.

我们应该激励保险公司和医疗提供者，帮助人们变得更健康，从而在他们一生中减少对医疗系统的整体需求。

We should be incentivizing insurers and and health providers for helping someone get healthier and reducing their overall demand on the system over the course of their lifetimes.

一些看似微小的措施，比如让十多万无家可归者离开街头、进入收容所，能显著减轻医疗系统的负担。

Things that may seem small, but getting a 100,000 plus people off of our streets and into shelter dramatically reduces the burden on our healthcare system.

我只是觉得，预防措施还需要再进一步。

I I just I I think that prevention take another one.

执业护士能做的远比我们通常允许的要多得多，而这又是萨克拉门托幕后谈判的结果——决定医生和护士各自的权限范围。

Nurse practitioners can do so much more than we often allow them to do, which again is a function of this behind the scenes negotiation in Sacramento over what are doctors allowed to do, what can nurses do.

在社区诊所中，执业护士提供预防性和早期干预护理，比我们今天的做法更有效地预防长期慢性病；而今天的做法往往是等人们病得很严重了，才不得不去急诊室求医。

Nurse practitioners providing preventative upstream care in clinics in communities can be far more effective at preventing long term chronic illness than what we do today, which is end up with everybody in the emergency room needing care after they're already really sick.

因此，我们需要重新构建我们的医疗体系。

So we need to restructure our healthcare system.

加州应该要求并投资于创新和更高效的做法，以控制成本曲线，而不是退而求其次，用简单粗暴的加税方式来资助那些最终会拖垮财政的免费服务。

California should be demanding and investing in innovation and better ways of doing things and bend the cost curve, not fall back on this lazy answer that we're just gonna find a way to raise taxes more to fund free services that will ultimately break just break the bank.

你因反对亿万富翁税而受到许多人的批评。

You've been criticized by many for being against the billionaire tax.

我认为你是目前唯一一位公开反对这项税收的州长候选人。

I think you're the only candidate running for governor right now that has spoken out against it.

我听过你对此的评论。

I've heard your comments on it.

显然，我可能是第一个在该法案提交当天就在我节目中指出并提出这个问题的人。

Obviously, I think I was probably the first to identify it and bring it up on my show when it first came out the day it was filed.

对我来说，这关乎私有财产权的根本问题。

For me, it's fundamental to private property rights.

如果你可以在人们已经缴税后还剥夺他们的资产，那这列火车就再也停不下来了。

If you can take people's assets after they've paid taxes on it, there's no stopping that train.

我的意思是，为什么不在某个时候直接没收每个人的资产呢？

I mean, why not take everyone's assets at some point?

你知道，你交了所得税。

Like, you know, you you pay your income tax.

那是你的私有财产。

That's your private property.

你有权保留它。

You get to keep it.

立法机构不应该事后说，我要拿走你资产的10%。

It shouldn't be that the legislature can later say, I'll take 10% of what you own.

是的。

Yeah.

这在我看来很不对劲。

That just seems wrong to me.

你觉得我们需要继续增加吗？

Do you think we need to have a continued increase?

我的意思是，你觉得加州需要维持高收入者的临时税率吗？

Like, do think we need to maintain the temporary high income taxes in California?

你对财政收入的整体看法是什么？

What's your general view on revenue?

我们已经谈了很多关于你的想法，嘿。

We've talked a lot about you think, hey.

你知道，我们不需要依赖收入增长。

You know, we don't need to rely on growing revenue.

但基于加州目前的税收制度，你认为还需要哪些改变？

But based on the current tax system in California, what else do you think needs to change?

或者你觉得就保持现状就好，不征收亿万富翁税，不新增任何税，但也不再进一步提高？

Or do you think it's just like, let's leave it as is, no billionaire tax, no new taxes, but let's just not go

回去？

back?

是的。

Yeah.

让我这么说

Let me say

几个

a couple

事情。

of things.

是的。

Yeah.

第一，我认为这种推动源于对经济不平等和社会流动性下降的深切担忧。

One, I think where this push is coming from is a deep concern about economic inequality and declining social mobility.

是的。

Yeah.

我认为这些问题确实存在。

And I think these are real issues.

我担心经济不平等。

I am worried about economic inequality.

我认为从长远来看，这对民主构成威胁。

I think in the long run it's a threat to democracy.

我认为，比起你所指出的财富税方案——即使抛开哲学上的争议，这个方案根本行不通——还有许多更好的解决办法。

I think there are a number of better solutions to this than the proposed wealth tax which is, as you point out, setting aside even the philosophic arguments, it simply won't work.

尤其是在州一级层面，肯定不行。

Certainly not at the state level.

你已经看到人们

You have already seen people

我知道有些人已经离开了这个州。

I know have already left the state.

对。

Right.

我们已经看到了超过一万亿美元的资本外流。

We've seen over a trillion dollars of capital flight.

我们未来的持续收入现在将变得更低。

Our ongoing revenue going forward is now going to be lower.

这个提案的隐秘真相是，真正缴纳更高税款的不会是亿万富翁。

The the dirty secret of this proposal is that it won't be the billionaires who pay higher taxes.

真正承担后果的将是中产阶级和工薪家庭。

It'll be middle class and working families who are left holding the bag.

所以这就是为什么我立刻觉得必须说点什么，因为受伤害的将是普通劳动者。

So that mean, that's why I just immediately felt that I had to say something because it's working people who are gonna be hurt by this.

不会是亿万富翁。

It's not gonna be billionaires.

他们是社会中流动性最强的人群。

They're the most mobile people in society.

所以，首先，我们可以做一些事情来让税制更加公平。

So, look, I I think, first of all, there are things we can do to make the tax code fair.

关于资本利得税的税率应该是多少，确实存在合理的讨论空间。

I think there's a legitimate debate about what should the absolute rate of capital gains tax be.

存在一种现象：非常富有的人通过抵押增值资产进行借贷，从而实际上规避了资本利得税。

There's the phenomenon of very wealthy individuals borrowing against appreciated assets where you're not you're sort of you're effectively avoiding paying capital gains.

我认为这是一个我们可以堵住的漏洞。

I think that's a loophole we can close.

还有死亡时的计税基础上调。

There's the step up in basis upon death.

我不确定这对某个人来说是否公平。

I'm not sure that it's very fair for somebody.

好吧，让我举个例子。

Well, let me just use an example.

我就这么说吧。

I'll just say this.

我知道埃隆·马斯克可以将价值5000亿美元的增值但未纳税的股票财富传给他的孩子，一旦他们继承，这些资产就会按当前市场价值重新计税，而从来没有人缴纳过资本利得税。

I know that Elon Musk should be able to pass on $500,000,000,000 of appreciated but untaxed stock wealth to his children, and the moment that they inherit it, it's rebased at current market value and no one ever pays the capital gains on it.

我的意思是，我们可以做很多事来捕捉数十亿美元的税收收入，以关闭税法中的漏洞。

I mean, there there are a lot of things we can do to capture billions in revenue to close loopholes in the tax code.

在所有这些提案中，这个是最糟糕的，最不可能奏效的，也最有可能伤害工薪阶层的。

This is, of all the proposals, the the worst, the least likely to work, the most likely to hurt working people.

但我认为，我们也必须承认，在一个不断要求更多投入却迟迟不见成效的州，我们必须承认，社会流动性下降，首要原因在于公共政策的失败。

But I also think we have to acknowledge in a state that keeps asking for more before we do better, we've we've got to acknowledge that social mobility is down because of public policy failures first and foremost.

表现不佳的公立学校、负担不起的住房、无法承受的能源成本。

Public schools that aren't performing, housing that isn't affordable, energy that isn't affordable.

我们的意思是，当一半的人——抱歉。

We I mean, when half of people sorry.

当大多数加州人将超过三分之一的收入用于住房，许多人甚至将超过一半的收入用于住房时，这比科技行业取得的一些增长对社会流动性造成的冲击要大得多。

When most Californians are spending over a third of their income on housing, many spending over half of their income on housing, that hits social mobility a lot more than the fact that the tech sector has had a bunch of growth.

这些都是根本性的公共政策失败，我们越早正视这些问题，重新思考我们的监管环境和政策以开始解决它们，对加州、对民主党、最重要的是，对我们要服务的人们就越有利。

It's just these are fundamental public policy failures and the sooner we own them and think differently about our regulatory environment and our policies so we start fixing them, the the better for California, the better for the Democratic Party, most importantly, better for the people we serve.

但你所说的确实让

But what you're saying makes a

很有道理，但我认为人们憎恨他人的成功。

lot of sense, but I think people hate other people's success.

我认为，社会流动性下降的同时，看到一小部分人群迅速崛起，这种现象正在加剧这种情绪。

I think there's a lot that's been going on, this fueling that's going on with the lack of social mobility but seeing a small segment of the population accelerate.

科技确实推动了这一点。

Technology has really had that driven that.

我第一个承认，加利福尼亚有一小部分人取得了巨大成功，而大多数加州人却被抛在了后面。

I'll be the first to admit there's a small population in California that's done extremely well while most of Californians have been left behind.

你觉得你有当选的可能吗？

Do you think you're electable in a sense?

我的意思是，你并没有助长那种我认为你的每一位候选人都能利用的民粹情绪，这可能会让你在这场竞选中处于巨大劣势。

I mean, you're not fueling the populist sentiment that I think every one of your candidates has found they can tap into, and that may put you at a big disadvantage in this race.

听我说，我认为我们确实需要比以往更认真地对待经济不平等和社会流动性问题。

Look, I I do think we we need to take economic inequality and social mobility much more seriously than we have.

我认为我们应当追问，甚至要求最富有的个人、科技行业以及那些表现良好的产业，以一种真正为民众服务的方式进行组织。

I think we need to ask and ultimately demand our wealthiest individuals, our tech sector, industries that do well to be structured in a way that works for people.

我想知道你对此有什么看法。

I'm curious what you think.

也许我暂时换个角度来问你。

Maybe I'll turn the tables for a moment.

我认为我们需要一种共享繁荣，让每个人都能从科技带来的巨大收益中获得某种股权或更直接的收益。

I think that we need a shared prosperity that includes people having some sort of equity from or more direct benefit in the incredible gains that tech has produced.

人工智能让很多人感到害怕，因为它可能导致失业和财富进一步集中。

AI is scaring a lot of people because it could lead to the elimination of jobs, further concentration of wealth.

你认为科技行业以及那些从中获得巨大利益的人，应该如何确保一个公平的竞争环境，或者至少提供某种形式的机会平等？

What do you think is the appropriate role for the tech sector and and those who have profited immensely from it to ensuring a level playing field or at least, you know, some some notion, some semblance of of equality of opportunity.

这是一个更长的话题，但我确实认为让更多人拥有更多所有权很重要。

That's a longer conversation but I do think giving more people more ownership is important.

但我不确定在人工智能时代，人们是否还想要或需要在大公司工作，这是个更长的话题。

But I'm not sure people are gonna want to or need to work at big companies anymore with AI, the longer conversation.

但就像Instagram、Shopify、Etsy和TikTok创造了新的工作，几乎是全新的角色和人们赚钱的方式一样。

But in the same way that Instagram, Shopify, Etsy created a TikTok, created new jobs, almost like new roles, new ways that people could earn.

是的。

Yeah.

我认为人工智能将创造出比现在多一千倍的新赚钱方式，人们不再需要被迫从事自己觉得被困住的工作，人工智能实际上会比任何人意识到的都更快地推动更多人向上发展，我最近见过无数这样的例子，我认为我们所有人最终都会对人工智能带来的经济流动性新突破感到惊喜，这种突破是源于人工智能，而非与其对抗。

I think AI is gonna create a thousand times more new ways for people to earn than they do today and they're not gonna have to have the job that they feel like they're stuck with today and AI is actually gonna accelerate more people up the ladder faster than anyone's really realizing and I can give you countless examples of this that I've seen recently, but I think we're all gonna wake up pretty happy with the next advance in in economic mobility that's gonna be unleashed because of AI, not in spite of it.

我希望这是真的。

I hope that's true.

是的。

Yeah.

这是一种非常乐观的看法。

It's a very optimistic read.

我认为从历史的角度来看，技术变革虽然最终带来了更大的富足，但确实如此。

I do think my read of history is that technological change, while ultimately producing greater abundance, if you will Yeah.

但往往对人们造成巨大冲击。

Often is really hard on people.

确实如此。

For period.

是的。

Yeah.

因此，至少在圣何塞，我们已经推出了人工智能技能提升课程。

And that's why in in San Jose at least, we've done we've created AI upskilling courses

是的。

Yeah.

为我们工人提供。

For our workers.

我们已让人工智能公司进入我们的图书馆，提供工具和培训。

We've gotten AI companies to come into our libraries and provide tools and training.

完全正确。

Totally.

我们正努力寻找降低学习使用这些工具门槛的方法，帮助人们将其应用到生活中，开启新业务，创造新的工作机会。

We're really trying to figure out how we lower barriers to learning how to use these tools, apply them in people's lives, start those new businesses, create the new jobs of the The

有趣的是，人工智能可以教人们如何使用人工智能。

cool thing is AI can teach people how to use AI.

确实如此。

That's true.

是的。

Yeah.

这正是我开始看到很多人通过向人工智能提问和互动来自主学习使用这些工具的地方，然后会有一个瞬间，就像你第一次在一堆干草上划燃火柴，你会说：哇。

Which is where where I'm starting to see a lot of people learn how to use these tools on their own by asking the AI and engaging and then there's this moment where it's almost like you lit a match on a a bunch of Tinder for the first time and you're like, woah.

我亲自见过这种情况。

And I I've seen this in person.

我看到人们像保龄球瓶一样被击倒，那种‘哇’的时刻。

I'm watching people get knocked down like bowling pins in terms of woah.

就在过去几个月里，我明显看到人们经历这种‘哇’的时刻，是的。

That woah moment that I've I've been visibly seeing people just in the last couple months Yeah.

这让我感到非常乐观。

Is making me very optimistic.

这很好。

That's good.

对。

Yeah.

但这确实回到了一个基本点：我们的公共教育体系需要教会人们批判性思考，因为现在有一半的孩子在阅读或数学能力上达不到年级水平。

It does though get back to this basic point that we need our public education system to teach people to think critically when half of our kids aren't on grade level for reading or math proficiency.

对他们来说，要成为终身学习者将会非常困难。

It's going to be very hard for them to be lifelong learners.

我的意思是，好奇心、提问以及学习如何思考，而不是灌输知识，这正是我们在美国教育中面临的一个巨大问题，我认为孩子们根本没有被教会如何质疑、如何构建。

I mean, curiosity and asking questions and learning how to think, not teaching them knowledge, is a massive problem that we're dealing with in education in The United States in my opinion on Kids its are not being taught how to question how to build.

他们只是被灌输事实。

They're being taught facts.

这些事实已经无关紧要了，因为它们现在全都能在AI中找到。

Those facts are irrelevant because they all exist in AI now.

你不需要记住所有这些事实。

You don't need to know all those facts.

拥有基础固然好，但你真正想追求的是什么？

It's good to have basis, but what are you really trying to get?

一个充满好奇的心灵、一个工程思维、一个富有创造力的心灵、一个深思熟虑的心灵，并教会个体在一个拥有无限可能性的世界中掌握自主权。

A curious mind, an engineering mind, a creative mind, a thoughtful mind, and teach individuals agency in a world where they have infinite capacity.

这正是AI赋予我们每个人的。

That's what AI gives all of us.

是的。

Yeah.

但你觉得呢

But what do you think

对唐纳德·特朗普有什么看法？

of Donald Trump?

我不喜欢他。

I'm not a fan.

我对唐纳德·特朗普的担忧是，即使他在某些问题上可能做得对，但他所激发的，是那些觉得自己被遗忘的美国工人阶层的挫败感，而我不认为他真正理解是什么让我们的国家伟大。

My concern with Donald Trump, even if he may get certain issues right, I think he's channeled the frustration of working Americans who feel that they've been left behind, is that I don't believe he really understands what makes our country great.

我认为他在移民问题上制造了大量恐惧和分裂，却忽视了我们国家之所以有这么多人，部分原因在于无论是民主党还是共和党，都希望在像我长大的沃森维尔这样的地方获得廉价劳动力——这些人在这里已经生活了二三十年，辛勤工作、缴纳税款、遵守规则，养育着身为美国公民的孩子，而现在这些孩子却生活在恐惧中，担心家人会被拆散。

I think that he has created a lot of fear and division around immigration, doesn't recognize how many people we have had in this country in part because both Democrats and Republicans wanted access to cheap labor in places like Watsonville where I grew up, who have been here twenty, thirty years working hard, paying their taxes, otherwise playing by the rules, raising children who are US citizens who are now living in in terror because they're worried their family's gonna get ripped apart.

我不理解也不支持这场对伊朗的战争，我认为这是个巨大的错误，它会推高能源成本，而且我根本不清楚我们为何要在那里牺牲美国人的生命。

I I don't understand and don't support this war in Iran that I think is a huge huge blunder and it's gonna drive up energy costs and it's it's not clear to me why we're losing American lives over there.

我只是觉得，关税方面，是的，我认为中国确实一直在以不公平的方式与美国竞争。

I just, you know, I think tariffs, yes, I do believe China, this is something I think he's gotten right, has been competing unfairly with The US.

我认为，针对这一问题采取有针对性的关税措施，会比我们现在所经历的普遍通胀明智得多。

I think a targeted approach to tariffs focusing on that issue would have made a lot more sense than the general inflation we've seen.

所以，我的意思是，我可以逐项讨论，但我最担心的是我们民主的健康状况。

So, I mean, I could go issue by issue, but I just I worry mostly about the health of our democracy.

我认为这需要真正坦诚的对话，以及对法治和独立司法的尊重。

I think it requires a a real honest dialogue, respect for rule of law in the independent judiciary.

我只是，是的，我深深担忧这种不仅仅是民粹主义，而是反应式的准威权主义言论和思维，它源于人们对政府信任的下降，而我们却没有对自己为劳动者提供服务负责。

I just, yeah, I have deep concerns that this, not just populist, but reactionary quasi authoritarian rhetoric and mindset is the outcome of declining trust in government when we don't hold ourselves accountable for delivering for working people.

我认为这是可以预见的，而且我也看到，左翼的民粹主义正在以同等甚至更危险的方式崛起作为回应，这两者正在相互助长。

I think it's predictable and I think you're seeing an equal and even, I'd say, equally risky rise in populism on the left in reaction, and these two are playing off one of not one another.

我参选的部分原因，是想提供第三条道路，一个务实的替代方案。

Part of the reason I jumped into this race was to offer a third way, a pragmatic alternative.

我是个民主党人，但我也意识到加利福尼亚州出了问题。

I'm a I'm a democrat, but I also recognize that something's broken in California.

激励机制完全错了。

The incentives are all wrong.

萨克拉门托高度组织化的利益集团得到了照顾。

The highly organized interests in Sacramento are being taken care of.

萨克拉门托对高度组织化的利益群体运作得非常好。

Sacramento's working great for highly organized interests.

但对于普通人来说，它并没有运转良好，我认为最好的解决办法是回归基本，保持能力，以数据为驱动，为人民带来实际成果，因为我担心，如果我们不这样做，将会在左右两翼爆发一场史诗级的民粹主义对抗，人们会提供极其简单的答案，而不是我们真正需要的诚实答案。

It is not working great for regular people, and I think the best antidote to that is to get back to basics, be competent, be data driven, deliver results for people because I'm worried that if we don't, we're gonna see this epic populist battle on the right and the left where people are offering really easy answers, not the honest answers that we need.

评价纽森州长作为加州州长的表现。

Rate governor Newsom and the job he's done as governor of California.

我认为纽森州长一直是抵制立法机构最糟糕想法的堡垒。

I think governor Newsom has been a bulwark against some of the worst ideas coming out of the legislature.

你提到他否决了立法机构通过的10%到15%的法案。

You mentioned that he's vetoed 10 to 15% of the bills coming out of the legislature.

我同意其中许多否决决定，我认为它们避免了真正的损害。

Many of those vetoes I agree with and I think have averted real harm.

我的批评在于，他没有足够努力地挑战萨克拉门托根深蒂固的利益集团，我们在某些政策问题上——比如36号提案、康复住房、一些能源政策——曾公开分歧，但我的出发点始终是解决问题，而不是针对个人。

I my my critique has been around not doing enough to take on the entrenched interests in Sacramento and and we've we've disagreed very publicly on certain policy issues, prop 36, recovery housing, some energy policy points, but it's it's always I mean, I try to attack problems, not people.

我并不太关心评价某人的意图或意识形态，我更关注他们行动的实际结果。

I'm not really interested in, you know, evaluating somebody's intentions or or or their ideology so much as the results of their actions.

我认为他做了一些真正不错的事情。

I think he's done some really good things.

我也认为他还能做得更多，这正是我向他提出的建议：让我们共同努力，更快地推动更大变革。

I also think he he could do even more and that's been my appeal to him is let's work together to drive even more change faster.

但他提出的一些举措，比如护理法庭，想法是对的，现在我们需要落实执行。

But some of the things he's brought forward like CareCourt, right idea, now we need to execute it.

我们必须确保护理法庭真正让成瘾和精神疾病患者得到治疗。

We need to actually make sure that Care Court's actually getting people with addiction and mental illness into care.

我认为他的想法和意图都是正确的，但我们必须付诸行动；作为州长，我会确保提案36号、提案1号、护理法庭以及他推行的多项措施真正发挥作用，

I think he's got the right right idea, right intention, but we've got to follow through and as governor, I would make sure that prop 36, prop one, Care Court, a number of things he's put in place are actually used to deliver

实现预期效果。

the intended outcome.

纽森州长发布了许多类似梗的内容，用类似特朗普的方式在社交媒体上嘲讽特朗普，

Governor Newsom's put out a lot of these memes kind of making fun of Donald Trump by doing tweets sort of like the way Trump does through social posts and

是的。

Yeah.

以此类推。

And so on.

至少在公开场合，他对总统非常对抗。

It's very antagonistic to the president, at least publicly antagonistic.

同时，加州依赖联邦资金，也需要大量的联邦合作和联邦土地。

At the same time, California relies on federal funding and requires a lot of federal cooperation, a lot of federal land in the state.

您会如何与特朗普总统互动？能否谈谈州长是如何在公开场合与特朗普总统互动的？

How would you interact with president Trump and talk a little bit about how the governor has interacted with president Trump publicly.

听好了。

Look.

我理解州长的做法。

I understand what the governor's doing.

他是在给唐纳德·特朗普照镜子，同时为加州的价值观而斗争，这一点我很欣赏。

He's, you know, been holding a mirror up to Donald Trump and both fighting for California's values, which I appreciate.

我认为这又回到了激励机制的问题上。

I think there's also just back to incentives.

我的意思是，他正在竞选总统，我认为这种做法正是源于此。

I mean, he's he's running for president and and that's where I think this approach is coming from.

我会采取不同的方式，作为州长，我会专注于为加州人民谋福利，必要时通过法院、通过舆论平台与特朗普政府抗争，以保护我们的价值观、保护我们的人民、保护州政府的资金。

I would take a different approach in the sense that as governor focused on delivering for Californians, I will fight the Trump administration through through the courts, through the bully pulpit whenever necessary to protect our values, to protect our people, to protect state funding.

但我同时也认为，我们需要找到与联邦政府实现双赢的领域。

I also think though that we need to find places where we can achieve a win win with the federal administration.

让我举一个我脑海中最突出的例子。

I'll give you the example that's top of mind for me.

我刚刚走访了阿尔塔德纳和帕利塞兹地区，那里的人们已经失去了一切。

I just spent time walking through Altadena, the Palisades where people have lost everything.

这两个地区共有超过一万栋房屋被毁。

Over 10,000 homes lost between the two.

人们迫切希望重建家园。

People are desperate to rebuild.

但他们没有得到所需的支持，部分原因在于这种极端的党派对立——加州与华盛顿在言语和政治上相互争斗，而真正受伤害的是那些失去家园、等待数十亿美元联邦援助的家庭，如果这不是一场政治博弈，这些援助本应早已到位，帮助这些社区重建。

They're not getting the help that they need and part of the reason they're not getting the help that they need is this hyper partisanship in which California and Washington are fighting rhetorically and politically and the people who are being hurt are the families who have lost their homes who are waiting on the $40,000,000,000 of federal aid that's been promised and that if it weren't for this political battle would have already flowed to help those neighborhoods rebuild.

作为州长，我当然会为我们的价值观而斗争，但我致力于解决我们的问题，这意味着要找到一种方式，让这位总统和本届政府也能够从重建洛杉矶中获益。

And I just, as governor, yeah, I I will absolutely fight for our values, but I'm committed to fixing our problems, which means finding a way to make it a win for this president and this administration to rebuild Los Angeles.

我们必须把人民放在政治之上。

That we have to put the people before our politics.

关于移民执法和移民局，作为州长，您是否认为加利福尼亚州的无证移民也是您需要代表的个体？

And as it relates to ICE and immigration enforcement, do you consider undocumented immigrants in the state of California individuals that you would represent as governor?

保护那些移民局希望驱逐的非法入境移民，是否也是您的职责之一？

Is it part of your job to protect undocumented immigrants who came here illegally that ICE would like to remove?

是的。

Yes.

除非他们犯有严重且暴力的罪行。

Unless they're committing serious and violent crime.

听好了，如果你在这里但没有合法身份，又犯下暴力重罪，我认为你应该被驱逐。

Look, if you're here, you're not documented, you're committing violent felonies, I think you should be deported.

但就像我小时候认识的许多人一样，如果你是被默许来到这里的——因为我们有农业或建筑业需要廉价劳动力，你来了，组建了家庭，开始工作，缴纳税款，在这里抚养孩子，而这些孩子出生在美国，是美国公民。

But like many of the people I grew up with, if you were essentially, if maybe tacitly welcomed here because we had an ag industry or a construction industry that needed low cost labor and you came, started a family, started working, paid taxes, raising kids here who were born here, who are US citizens.

唯一切实且合乎道德的解决方案是，各方应搁置极端党派分歧，团结起来，达成一项重大协议：加强边境安全，驱逐那些犯下暴力罪行的无证移民，并为他们建立一条通往合法身份的途径。

The only practical and ethical solution is for parties to put the hyper partisanship aside, come together, and come to a grand bargain in which we secure the border, we deport those committing violent crime who are undocumented, and we create a pathway to a legal to some sort of legal status.

如果对于那些早年来到这里的年长一代来说，公民身份太过遥远，那也无可厚非。

If citizenship is a bridge too far for that older generation that came earlier, so be it.

但他们的孩子是美国公民，他们理应继续与父母生活在一起。我认为我们必须找到一种尊重人性、切实可行且合乎道德的方案。坦白说，我对两党多年来一直拖延推诿感到极度失望，我将坚决保护那些遵守规则、正在做最美国化事情的无证居民。我完全理解关于合法移民的所有论点。

But their kids are US citizens and they deserve to still live with their parents and I think we've got to find the the approach that respects people's humanity and is practical and ethical and I'm incredibly disappointed, frankly, with both parties for years of kicking the can down the road and I will absolutely stand up to protect undocumented residents who are playing by the rules, who are doing the most American thing, and I get all the I get all the arguments around lawful immigration.

让我们加强边境安全，建立一套完善的合法移民体系，避免制造不良激励。

Let's secure the border and set up a proper system of lawful immigration going forward and not create a bad incentive.

让我们这么做，同时建立这条通往合法身份的途径，但我们在明尼阿波利斯看到的情况对国家来说是可怕的。

So let's do that and then create this pathway to legal status, but what we've seen play out in in Minneapolis is horrible for the country.

我们正目睹公民被逮捕，甚至被杀害。

We're seeing citizens arrested, even killed.

这行不通，我并不

This is this is not this is not working and I don't

认为这种情况正在发生。

think it's happening.

让我告诉你共和党领导层会提出的反对意见：这些人中的许多最终会投票给民主党，绝大多数都会投给民主党。

Let me give you the pushback that the Republican Party leadership would would give, which is that many of these individuals will end up voting for Democrats, Vast majority of them will vote for Democrats.

而且边境被开放，他们被允许进入，现在由于人道主义状况，通往公民身份的必然路径最终将扩大民主党的选民基础，使他们在华盛顿和各州长期掌权，使更多州转向蓝色，等等。

And that the border was opened, they were allowed in here, and now this inevitable due to humanitarian conditions path forward to citizenship will ultimately increase the Democratic party's voting base and lock them into power in DC, lock them into power in these states, turn more states blue, etcetera.

你如何回应这种担忧和反对意见？

How do you respond to that concern and pushback?

把人道主义的部分放在一边，是的。

Put the humanitarian pieces Yeah.

边境开放的原因是，每个我问过的民主党人都无法回答这个问题：为什么边境会被开放？

That the the reason the border and every Democrat I ask about this cannot answer the question, why was the border opened?

是为了降低劳动力成本吗？

Was it to lower labor costs?

我们这样做还有其他原因吗？

Was there some other reason that we did it?

是为了扩大选民基础吗？

Was it to increase the voting base?