霍华德·卢特尼克：美国如何在2026年实现6%的GDP增长

所以，你知道是什么意思吗？

So, you know what mean?

你不能开一辆雪佛兰回家，然后别人还说，哦，你找到新工作了。

You can't come home with a Chevy and people are like, oh, you know, you got a new job.

对。

Right.

这是一个文化上、技术上和经济上都封闭的市场。

It's a culturally, technically, and economically closed market.

所以，即使你在技术上和经济上打开了市场，也可能无法在社会层面打开。

So, even if you opened it technically, and even if you opened it economically, you may not be able to open it socially.

嗯。

Mhmm.

所以我们决定，好吧，你要支付25%的关税。

So, what we did is we said, Alright, you're going to pay a 25% tariff.

简单。

Simple.

你不会开放你的市场。

You won't open your market.

对吧？

Right?

我无法让你真正开放你的市场。

I can't get you to really open your market.

所以你只需付我们25%。

So you just pay us 25%.

而且，这很简单。

And, that's simple.

我们不需要谈判，你知道，我们只需支付这个权利，数学计算会随着时间自行解决。

We don't have to negotiate, you know, we just pay for the right and the math will fix itself over time.

嗯。

Mhmm.

于是，他们的领导打电话过来说，我们做不到。

So, their leadership called and said, we can't do that.

而且，你知道

And, you know

那是什么，怎么样

And what what how

当有人说我做不到时，我就想

when someone says, I can't do that, I'm like

当你问为什么时，那是什么

And what did when you say why

嗯。

Yeah.

于是，他们解释了原因。

So, and they explained why.

他们说，你看，日本汽车制造商的做法是政府补贴提供给小型制造商的设备。

They said, look, the way the Japanese auto manufacturers work is the government subsidizes the machinery that went to small manufacturers.

所以，他们所做的就是，比如说，公司A可以有一千家小型公司，专门生产这款车型的杯架。

So, what they did is, let's say, company A could have a thousand small companies and they make the cup holder for this particular model.

对。

Right.

所以，有50个人在这家公司工作，专门为丰田生产杯架，对吧？但这些设备是政府补贴的。

And so, have 50 people who work at this company who make the cup holder for that, right, for Toyota, but that, the machinery was subsidized by the government.

因此，你有成千上万这样的公司，它们不可能被整体搬去美国。

And so you have thousands, tens of thousands of these companies, and so they can't pick them up and move them to America.

在你继续讲之前，我问你个问题。

Let me ask you just a question before you go back to this.

让你感到惊讶的是，不仅日本，我相信你在其他地方也见过，所有这些其他国家政府都愿意干预并补贴本国的生产力，而美国人却相对更靠自己？

Was it surprising to you that, not just Japan, but I'm sure you encountered it everywhere, all these other governments would be willing to shape and subsidize their own domestic productivity, whereas Americans were a little bit more on their own?

太惊人了。

It's amazing.

补贴、援助，根本不是公平竞争的环境。

The subsidies, the assistance, the it's not a level playing field.

其他所有国家都在为自己的国内经济这么做。

That everybody else does for their own domestic internal economy.

但并不是每种产品都这样

But not on every product

对。

Right.

但很多产品都是如此。

But on many.

比如，我们对钢铁和铝征收关税。

I mean, like, you know, we set steel and aluminum tariffs.

你会说，为什么要把钢铁和铝全部包括进去？

You'd say, like, why do you do the whole steel and aluminum thing?

你会说，如果中国向钢铁生产商提供电力，提供，给，电力。

You'd say, if the Chinese give power, give, g I v e, the power to the steel producer.

免费的。

Free.

想想钢铁。

Think of think of steel.

对吧？

Right?

就像棕色的泥土。

It's like brown dirt.

嗯。

Yeah.

所以，你把这种棕色的泥土加工成铁矿石，但你们都见过，它其实就是土。

So, you process the brown dirt to make it iron ore, but you've all seen it's like dirt.

对吧。

Right.

然后，你知道要把这些矿石熔化需要多少电力吗？对吧。

And then, you know how much power you have to put into that to melt it Right.

用来制造出你们在电视上见过的那种倾倒铁水的场景。

To make it look like one of those things we've seen on TV where you're pouring the iron ore.

想象一下，如果我把电力免费提供给你。

And imagine if I gave you the power for free.

你会以每公吨250美元的成本生产钢铁。

You'd be making your steel for $250 a metric ton.

对。

Right.

在美国，平均成本是每公吨700美元。

And it's average as a cost in America, $700 a metric ton.

所以他们会让我们的人破产，这意味着他们让我们的人破产。

So they're gonna put our guys out of business, which means they put our guys out of business.

然后日本补贴它，韩国补贴它。

And then Japan subsidizes it, Korea subsidizes it.

所以也许他们能以每公吨400美元的成本做到。

So maybe they can do it for $400 a metric ton.

与此同时，我们曾经有40座高炉，现在只剩下10座。

And meanwhile, our so we start with 40 steel blast furnaces, now we have 10.

如果我们继续下去，我们本来会

And if we kept going, we were going to

变成零。

have Zero.

零。

Zero.

然后，如果你需要钢铁，你就基本上变得依赖他人。

And then what happens is you become basically subservient if you need steel.

你想制造自己的导弹吗？

You want to build your own missiles?

你得求助于另一个国家。

You have to call another country.

也许你的盟友如日本和韩国可以帮你，但你不再自给自足。

Now, there may be your allies like Japan and Korea, and you can call them, but you are not self sufficient.

所以，唐纳德·特朗普说，我们需要钢铁，需要铝，需要铜。

So, Donald Trump says, we need steel, we need aluminum, we need copper.

对吧？

Right?

我们需要自己制造半导体。

And, we need to make our own semiconductors.

是的。

Yeah.

对吧？

Right?

我们需要自己生产药品。

We need to make our own pharmaceuticals.

没错。

Right.

一旦你理解了这一点，认真思考一下，唐纳德·特朗普不仅完全正确，而且简直该感谢上帝。

Like, and once you understand this, right, and and you really think about it, Donald Trump is not only is he completely correct, it it actually goes to the thank God.

对吧？

Right?

比如，你研究药品，真正深入地研究它们。

Like, you study pharmaceuticals and you really study them.

你说，这些仿制药都是在印度生产的。

And you say, well, these generic pharmaceuticals are made in India.

我说，好的，没问题。

I say, okay, good.

印度是我们的盟友。

India is our ally.

但原料来自中国。

But the ingredients come from China.

没错。

Exactly.

所以，如果你需要一个螺丝或螺栓，而它来自中国，他们就不发给你。

So that if, you know, if there's one nut or bolt that you need and it comes from China, they don't send it to you.

对。

Right.

对吧？

Right?

比如，有一种叫磁铁的东西。

Like, there were these things called magnets.

明白吗？

Okay?

磁铁会被用在汽车里。

Magnets go in a car.

一辆汽车里用的磁铁价值20美元。

The value of a magnet that goes in a car is $20.

20美元。

$20.

对吧？

Right?

你买一辆3万美元的汽车。

You're buying a $30,000 car.

这只是一个20美元的零件。

It's a $20 part.

对。

Right.

但是，如果他们没有Cardiola的话。

But, if they don't have it Cardiola.

哦，抱歉。

Oh, sorry.

这行不通。

It can't work.

对。

Right.

对吧？

Right?

我们从哪里弄到这个零件？

Where do we get that part from?

嗯，中国出售这些零件，他们以每磅55美元的价格购买原材料，然后以每磅55美元的价格把成品磁铁卖给你。

Well, China sells them, they buy the dirt, the ingredient for $55 a pound, and they sell you the finished magnet for $55 a pound.

所以，如果你能以每磅55美元的价格出售原材料，就不会有人去制造磁铁了。

So, no one's going to make the magnet if you could sell the raw material for $55.

所以他们本质上就是在亏钱。

So they're basically just losing money.

答案是

And the answer is

对。

Right.

你觉得这种重商主义是有意为之，目的是削弱美国吗？

Do you think that this mercantilism, was it a purposeful strategy to weaken America?

还是你觉得这只是资本主义的副产品？

Or do you think it was just a byproduct of capitalism?

答案是肯定的。

The answer is yes.

中国经济属于产能过剩。

It the Chinese economy is one of overproduction.

他们有50个市长和省份，每个省份都试图取得成功。

They have 50 mayors, provinces, and each of those provinces is trying to succeed.

因此，每个省份都想建立一家电动汽车公司。

So each of those provinces wants to build an electric car company.

政府投入所有资金，建设基础设施，提供电力并进行投资。

And the government puts in all the money, builds the capital, gives them the power, invests.

所以，如果你是市长，你就想要那家成功的电动汽车公司，因为别忘了，中国没有石油和天然气。

So if you're the mayor, you want the winning electric car company because remember, China does not have oil and natural gas.

所以他们必须发展电动汽车，因为他们有煤炭。

So they have to build electric because they have coal.

对吧？

Right?

所以他们必须发展电动汽车。

So they have to build electric.

我们不需要。

We don't.

我们以为自己也应该拥有他们制造的所有电池和相关产品，这简直是傻瓜行为。

We're being fools to think that we should have batteries and everything that they make that we don't.

这太愚蠢了。

That's just foolish.

但这意味着，如果你有50个市长，他们各自拥有什么？

But, they So that means if you 50 mayors and they all have what?

一家电动汽车公司？

One electric car company?

不。

No.

不。

No.

他们可能会各搞两家，以防万一。

They're probably going to have two just in case.

所以那就是一百家电动汽车公司，都在政府补贴下互相厮杀。

So, that's a 100 electric car companies and they're all trying to kill each other subsidized by the government.

所以，他们可以把价格降低30%。

So, they can cut their price 30%.

为什么？

Why?

因为政府只是说：看吧，我们干脆试着把其他人都压下去。

Because the government just says, look, let's just try to undersell everybody else.

然后他们生产了这么多汽车。

And then they make so many cars.

这些车他们怎么处理？

What do they do with all these cars?

对。

Right.

于是他们就把这些车倾销掉，把成本3万美元的电动车以1.5万美元的价格卖到欧洲。

So then they dump them and they take the electric car which cost them 30,000 and they sell it in Europe for 15,000.

所以你去欧洲看一辆电动车，会说：这车才1.5万美元。

So you go to an electric car in Europe and say, 15,000 for this car.

这辆电动车15000美元真是太棒了。

This is an amazing car for 15,000.

因为它的成本是30000美元。

That's because it cost 30,000.

对我来说。

To me.

是的。

And Yeah.

结果就是，这导致大众汽车公司倒闭。

So what happens is, that has the effect of putting Volkswagen out of business.

对。

Right.

所以实际情况是，这是他们的模式，一种混乱攻击模式。

So what happens is, it's it's their model, which is an attack chaos model.

但这种混乱攻击模式存在产能过剩。

But the attack chaos model has overcapacity.

然后他们把这种过剩产能转化为资产，说让我们倾销掉这些过剩产能。

And then they turn that overcapacity into an asset, says let's dump the overcapacity.

我们会亏一大笔钱。

We're going to lose a fortune.

好吧。

Okay.

但政府在买单。

But the government's just paying.

我们要把这种过剩产能倾销到美国。

We're going to dump that overcapacity into America.

对吧？

Right?

或者倾销到欧洲，或者任何愿意接收的地方。

Or into Europe or into anybody who'll take it.

对吧？

Right?

我们会让他们的产业破产，从而让他们处于我们的掌控之中。

We'll put their industry out of business and they will have them over a barrel.

我们将把经济混乱转化为国际优势。

We'll turn our economic chaos into international prowess.

还有杠杆。

And leverage.

对。

Right.

所以，现在关税实际上减缓了这种杠杆效应，因为它消除了这种经济激励。

So that's And so then, you're the tariffs now then basically slow that leverage down because it takes that economic incentive off the table.

不过，从长远来看，你是否还需要配合其他结构性改革来纠正局面？

Do you need to follow-up with some other set of structural changes though to right the ship in the long term?

我们必须将生产本土化。

We have to domesticate production.

比如，我们需要做哪些事情，才能确保八年或十二年后，即使关税政策改变，或下一届政府持不同观点，仍能留下一些结构性成果，防止这种情况再次发生？

Like, what are the things that we need to do so that in eight years or twelve years, if the tariffs were to change, if a different administration takes a different point of view, what is structurally going to be left behind that prevents this from happening again?

至于中国，如果我们稍有松懈，他们就会在美国以低于成本的价格销售，把我们的国内企业赶出市场，然后我们就不得不依赖他们。

Well, with respect to China, if we blink, they will sell below cost in America and drive our domestic companies out of business, And then, we will be beholden to them.

嗯。

Mhmm.

这可以说是简单的数学问题。

That's sort of a simple math.

对吧？

Right?

我的意思是，如果你仔细想想，他们花巨资说服所有人应该环保，应该买电动车。

I mean, if if if you think about it, they spend a fortune convincing everyone that they should be environmentally friendly and have an EV car.

但如果欧洲不生产电池，却要求到2030年所有汽车都必须是电动车，那电池该从哪儿买？

But if if Europe doesn't make batteries, and they say, have all EV cars by 2030, then who are going to buy the batteries from?

嗯。

Mhmm.

他们只能从中国购买。

They have to buy it from China.

而现在，他们必须从中国购买，这意味着他们对中国的外交政策是什么？

And now, they need to buy it from China, which means what is their foreign policy with respect to China?

非常积极。

It's very positive.

就这样。

That's all.

对吧？

Right?

他们用经济优势来压制你，你知道的，基本上就是用经济实力压倒你

They trade economic, you know, basically, I've gotten prowess over you

嗯。

Yeah.

所以你才会允许我做这件事、那件事、其他事情。

So that you're going to let me do this, that, the other thing.

最终，他们玩的并不是我们遵循的同一套规则。

And eventually, they're not playing with the same rules that we play.

因此，当你环游世界并研究世界时，比如日本在汽车方面的规则与我们不同。

And so, when you go around the world and you study the world, like Japan doesn't do cars by the same rules that we do.

所以，他们必须让汽车占比低于25%。

So, they had to have cars be lower than 25%.

25%这个数字基本上让他们感到窒息。

25% was basically a number that choked them.

于是，我们与他们共同分析得出，15%是他们可以接受的数字。

And so, we analyzed together with them that 15% would be the number they could live with.

对吧？

Right?

而且，继续制造汽车，在这里建更多工厂。

And, keep making cars and build more here.

然后说，嗯，但既然你们并不真的开放市场，我们为什么要这样做呢？

And then, said, well, but why would we since you're not really going to open your market?

你们并不真的让我们进入，我们该怎么办呢？

You're not really going to let us have access, how are we going to do it?

然后，我花了数月时间与日本人和特朗普总统反复探讨各种想法。

And then, I spent months going back and forth with the Japanese and President Trump with different ideas.

这个怎么样？

How about this?

所以，如果你说我第一次就做对了，那并不正确。

So, if you suggested I got it right the first time, that would not be true.

我做对了。

I got it right.

你知道，我一直用这种方式描述我人生中的商业成功。

You know, I've I've always described my business success in life.

我总是这样看待它。

I always came at it like this.

明白吗？

Okay?

然后，这个，这个，这个促成了成功。

And then, this, this, this In a rate to success.

不久之后，我就成功了。

In Sooner later, I got through.

所以我们提出的方案是5500亿美元，这并不是外国直接投资，也不是丰田在美国建厂。

So, we came up with was $550,000,000,000 that this is not foreign direct investment, this is not Toyota building a factory in America.

这意味着他们将为我们在美国建设的任何项目提供资金，只要这是一个现金流良好的项目。

This is they literally will finance any project we want to build in America, as long as it's like a good cash flowing project.

我们想建设价值1000亿美元的核电站。

Nuclear, we want to build a $100,000,000,000 of nuclear plants.

他们会支付这笔费用。

They will pay for it.

所以，他们会以日本国内三十年期债券的形式借款。

So what happens is they'll borrow the money on like a thirty year bond in Japan.

因此，日本政府会向其国内债券持有人筹集5500亿美元。

So the Japanese government goes and raises the 550,000,000,000 from their domestic bondholders.

从他们的国内债券持有人那里。

From their domestic bondholders.

对。

Right.

所以他们是你的有限合伙人，你是普通合伙人。

So they're an LP to you, and you're the GP.

完全正确。

Exactly the right thing.

是的。

Yeah.

他们是有限合伙人。

They're an LP.

他们提供股权。

They give us the equity.

是的。

Yeah.

我们建造核电站，然后它开始发电，我们五五分账，直到他们收回本金和利息。

We build the nuclear power plant, and then it starts selling power, and we split the cash $50.50 until they get back their money plus their interest.

这意味着三十年后，日本纳税人实现了盈亏平衡，他们的股息是降低了的电价。

So that means in thirty years, the taxpayers of Japan broke even, and their dividend was a reduced tariff.

每天电价都更低，就业机会更多，各方面都更好，你知道吗？

That every day they had a lower tariff, they had more employment, they had this and that, and you know what?

股市涨了多少？

What's the stock market's up?

二十点？

Twenties?

对。

Yeah.

上涨了吗？

Up?

对。

Yeah.

不是下跌吗？

Not down?

嗯。

Yeah.

上涨？

Up?

所以，你知道，关键在于，这并没有让日本纳税人长期花钱。

So, you know, that that's the point, which is it didn't cost their taxpayers money over time.

现在，我们很容易理解我们将赚多少钱。

Right now, we it's pretty simple to understand how much we're going to make.

你会说，如果它是5500亿美元，而他们的利率很低，那么在三十年内，你将获得6500亿美元。当我们偿还他们6500亿美元时，如果你问我，美国赚了多少？

You'd say, well, if it's 550,000,000,000 and their interest rates are pretty low, so let's say over thirty years you're going to get $650,000,000,000 When we pay them back $650,000,000,000 if you say to me, How much did America make?

我会说，6500亿美元，因为我们五五分账。

I would say, $650,000,000,000 because we split the money fiftyfifty.

而且在他们拿回本金之后，因为核电站的使用寿命很长

And after they get their money back, because nuclear power plants last a long time

嗯。

Yeah.

那么现金流的90%归美国，10%归日本。

Then the cash flow goes 90 to America and 10 to Japan.

当你对美国说，有这样一个账户吗？

And when you say to America, is there an account?

这笔钱之后是如何支出或分配的？

How does that money then get spent or allocated?

或者

Or

美国唯一一个商务部官员所知道的银行叫做财政部。

The only bank The United States Of America has as far as, like, the secretary of commerce sees is called treasury.

财政部。

Treasury.

所以我们在美国财政部设有账户，所有资金都进入财政部。

So we have accounts at treasury, and all the money goes into treasury.

所以所有关税收入都进入财政部。

So all the tariff money goes into treasury.

所有这些钱都进入了财政部。

All this money just goes into treasury.

因此它减少了我们的赤字，也减少了他人缴纳的税收。

So it reduces our deficit and it reduces it is it is taxes paid by others.

对。

Right.

为了让我们家里的账目理顺，对吧？

For us to get our house in order, right?

这就是为什么总统提到外部收入服务。

That's why the president talks about the external revenue service.

对吧？

Right?

在这种情况下，你会说，好吧，在二十年里，你每年可能会赚300亿美元。

In this case, you're going to make you'd say, alright, well over twenty years, you'd probably make 30,000,000,000 a year.

对吧？

Right?

每年就是300亿美元。

That's 30,000,000,000 a year.

你知道我们需要向美国人征多少税才能覆盖每年300亿美元吗？

You know how much tax we have to raise Yeah.

要每年征收300亿美元的税，得从美国人身上收多少？

On Americans to cover 30,000,000,000 a year?

光是这些交易，每年就是300亿美元。

That's 30,000,000,000 a year just on those trades.

然后，关税现在每年是5000亿美元，并且随着时间推移，将增长到每年1万亿美元。

Then you have the tariffs are 500,000,000,000 a year now, and they will grow over time to 1,000,000,000,000 a year.

这些钱并不是我们需要缴纳的税款。

And that money is not money we have to pay in taxes.

最终，这会让我们财政状况好转，降低利率，推动经济发展，但最重要的是，我们不必再自己掏钱。

And eventually, that puts our house in order, that lowers interest rates, drives our economy, but most importantly, we don't have to pay.

特朗普总统已经谈过这个问题。

President Trump has talked about this.

他说，随着你逐步实施关税计划并提取这些额外资本，你可能会看到所得税的相应减少。

He said that as you kind of execute the tariff plan and extract this incremental capital, you could see a ratable reduction in income taxes.

这是看待这个问题的正确方式吗？

Is that the right way to think about this?

还是你觉得我们首先需要找到其他方式来花这笔钱？

Or do you think there are other ways to spend the money first that we need

在我们之前，谁来支付无小费税、无加班税、无社会保障税？

to before we Who can paid for no tax on tips, no tax on overtime, no tax on social security?

对吧？

Right?

关税。

Tariffs.

关税。

Tariffs.

所以这就像一笔首付款。

So that's a like that's a down payment.

对。

Right.

对吧？

Right?

但这就是重点。

But that's the idea.

我们应该从底层开始减轻税负。

We should be able to reduce the tax burden from the bottom up.

嗯。

Yeah.

对吧？

Right?

帮助那些年收入低于15万美元、领取加班费和小费的美国人，减轻他们的税负。

Help Americans who make less than a $150,000, who earn overtime, who who earn tips, let's reduce their tax burden.

对吧？

Right?

让我们帮助美国，顺便说一下，这占了美国的85%。

Let's help America By the way, that's 85% of America.

这并不是一个小群体。

It's not like it's a subset.

因此，我认为总统正专注于运用其政府的权力，纠正那些被强加在我国身上的种种不公，而我们是世界上最富有的国家。

And so, I think the president is deeply focused on using the power of his administration to right a whole bunch of wrongs that have been ripped off about our country, and that we are the richest country in the world.

这意味着我们不必从人们手中夺走东西。

And that means we don't have to take things away from people.

每个人都会认为，要平衡预算，如果你问一位政治家如何解决社会保障问题，他们会说：提高退休年龄。

Everybody assumes to balance the budget, if you asked a politician how you would fix Social Security, they would say, Take the retirement age out.

提高。

Out.

对。

Right.

对吧？

Right?

拿走。

Take away.

他们绝不会说，我们是地球上最伟大的国家。

They would never say, we are the greatest country on the earth.

我们拥有地球上最强大的经济。

We have the greatest economy on the earth.

我们难道不能找到方法增加收入，以维持这个世界最富有的国家吗？

Can't we figure out ways to enhance our revenues to keep the richest country in the world?

我们应该能让人们在65岁退休。

We should be able to give people retirement at 65.

我们根本不需要改变任何东西，这就是他的想法。

We shouldn't change a darn thing, and that is his thinking.

是的。

Yeah.

这就是为什么它比任何之前的政客都更强大。

And that's why it's so much more powerful than any politician before.

政客们认为，他们唯一要做的就是给予或索取。

Politicians think all they have to do is give or take.

给予或索取。

Give or take.

给予或索取。

Give or take.

给予或索取。

Give or take.

你这样解释，让我觉得非常有道理。

The way that you've explained this, it makes an enormous amount of sense.

这就像是在铺垫：这里存在历史性的不平衡。

It's like you set the stage of here's the historical imbalance.

这里是我们想如何纠正它。

Here's how we wanna reset it.

我们希望进行一些投资，让你——外国——得到补偿，但归根结底，这关乎美国的卓越性。

We want some investment that we're going to get you whole, foreign country, but at the end of the day, this is about American exceptionalism.

这在日本是有效的。

It's worked in Japan.

这在韩国也有效。

It's worked in Korea.

你和欧洲达成了协议。

You did the deal with Europe.

你和英国达成了协议。

You did the deal with The UK.

还有什么地方是仍然存在的？

What sort of out there that's still there?

我觉得印度可能还在外面，尽管看起来他们有点在让步。

I think India is kinda still out there, although it seems like they're capitulating a little bit.

我看到他们在11月从美国购买了大量的液化石油气。

I saw that they just bought a lot of liquefied petroleum gas from The United States in November.

你最关注哪些关键地区？

What are the big sort of hot button places that you want?

我给你讲个关于印度的故事。

I'll tell you a story about India.

如果你还记得，我做了第一个英国协议，我们告诉英国他们必须在两个星期五之前完成。

So if you remember, so I did the first deal, The UK deal, and we told The UK that they had to get it done by two Fridays from now.

那就是截止日期。

That that was the date.

火车将在两个星期五前发车，因为我还有许多其他国家在行动，你知道，如果别人先做了，他们就占先了。

That the train was going to leave the station by two Fridays because I have a lot of other countries doing things and, you know, if someone else is first, they're first.

特朗普总统做交易就像走楼梯。

And president Trump does deals like a staircase.

第一级台阶的人能得到最好的交易。

First stair gets the best deal.

第一个家伙拿走之后，你就别想拿到最好的交易了。

You can't get the best deal after the first guy went.

每个人都说，我想要英国的协议。

Everyone says, I want The UK deal.

我也想要英国的交易。

I want The UK deal.

答案是不行。

The answer is no.

他们先来的。

They were first.

他们抓住了机会。

They took the chance.

他们行动最快。

They moved quickest.

他们是第一个。

They're first.

第二步，上一级台阶。

Second, up a stair.

所以这设定了底线。

So that sets the floor.

对。

Right.

下一个必须更高。

And then the next one's gotta be higher.

再下一个更高，再下一个更高。

And then the next one higher, and the next one higher.

所以他这样做，是为了激励你坐到谈判桌前。

So he does things that way because that way it incents you to come to the table.

对。

Right.

对吧？

Right?

你本可以有三个国家达成第二份协议，它们都可以同时完成。

You could have three countries with a second deal, they all get done at the same time.

对。

Right.

但你知道，如果你选择等待看看情况如何，那风险由你承担。

But, you know, if you want to wait and see how it goes, it's at your risk.

所以他先做了英国的协议，而且他们必须在周五之前完成。

So, he does The UK deal and they had to get it done by Friday.

周四下午，斯塔默打电话给总统。

And Thursday afternoon, here's Starmer's on the phone, the president.

他们在周三晚上完成了协议，周四我们召开新闻发布会并宣布此事。

We have they do their deal Wednesday night, and on Thursday we have a press conference and we announce it.

明白吗？

Okay?

所以大家都问总统，你认为下一个会是谁？

So everybody asked the president, who do you think is next?

如果回看当时的情况，他提到了好几个国家，但多次点名了印度。

And if you look back at the time, he said he talks about a variety of countries, but he names India a couple of times.

公开地。

Publicly.

这并不是什么大秘密。

It's not it's not like a big secret.

我们当时在谈印度，告诉印度你们有三个星期五的时间。

And we were talking India, and we told India you had three Fridays.

给他们设个倒计时。

Put them on a shot clock.

他们必须完成，因为我会有很多其他国家，当这些国家达成协议时

Well, they have to get it done because what happens is I have lots of other countries, and when those other countries do their deal

楼梯会往上走。

The staircase goes up.

对。

And, right.

在所有这些协议期间，总统都会称我为有史以来最棒的铺路者。

And, now, the president, during all these deals, he would refer to me as the greatest table setter who ever lived.

好吧？

Okay?

因为你以前从未有过像我这样成功的商人，作为桌面上的布置者。

Because you've never had anybody who was as successful as me as a businessman before, who's just the table setter, basically.

你知道，我所做的就是谈判合同，把整个交易安排好。

You know, so, because what I would do is I would negotiate the contracts and set the whole deal up.

但我们要说清楚，这是他的交易。

But, let's be clear, it's his deal.

是的。

Yeah.

明白吗？

Okay?

他是最后拍板的人，他来做这笔交易。

He's the closer, he does the deal.

所以我说，你必须让莫迪来，一切都安排好了，你得让莫迪给总统打电话。

So, I said, you got to have Modi, it's all set up, You have to have Modi call the president.

但他们对此感到不自在。

And, they were uncomfortable doing it.

所以，莫迪没打电话。

So, Modi didn't call.

哇。

Wow.

所以，那个星期五就走了。

So, that Friday left.

接下来一周的中间，我们去了印度尼西亚、菲律宾，对吧？

Middle of the next week, we did Indonesia, The Philippines, right?

越南，我们宣布了一大批交易。

Vietnam, we announced a whole bunch of deals.

那段时间还有马来西亚。

Malaysia in that period.

所以我们做了这一大堆交易，这就像是

So, we did these whole bunch of deals, so that's like

这个阶梯。

That staircase.

而且当时他们已经谈好了，因为我们原本以为印度的协议会先谈成，所以我跟他们谈的是更高的价格。

And they were at and because we negotiated them and assumed India was going be done before them, I had negotiated them at a higher rate.

所以现在的问题是，这些协议以更高的价格签下来了。

So now the problem is the deals came out at a higher rate.

对。

Right.

然后印度那边又打回来，说，哦，好的。

And then India calls back and says, oh, okay.

我们准备好了。

We're we're ready.

我说：准备好了做什么？

I said, ready for what?

你知道吗，三周后我才反应过来：你们是不是准备好了要搭那趟三周前就开走的火车？

You know, it was like three weeks later, I go, are are you ready for the train that left the station three weeks ago?

所以发生的情况是，有时候就像跷跷板，人们偏偏坐在了错误的一边。

So, what happened is they just, you know, sometimes there's that seesaw, and people are on just the wrong side of the seesaw.

你知道吗，当我年轻时刚入行做生意，还是个交易员的时候。

You know, when I was a when I was a young when I was young in business, and I was a trader.

所以，我最早的工作之一就是当交易员。

So, one of my first jobs was a trader.

当我站在跷跷板的错误一侧时，比如我买入后价格却下跌了。

And, when I would start on the wrong side of the seesaw, you know, I'd buy and it would go down.

然后我卖出，价格却上涨了；接着我再买入，价格又下跌，再卖出。

And then, I'd sell it would go up and then the buy would go down and sell it.

当你站在跷跷板的正确一侧时，根本不可能亏钱。

Like, when you're on the right side of the seesaw, you can't lose.

是啊。

Yeah.

你知道吗，当你买的时候价格上升，然后你卖出，价格就下跌了。

You know, your buy goes up and then you sell it and it goes goes down.

你买入，价格就上涨，而且

And, you buy it goes up, and

然后

then

卖了就跌了。

sell it goes down.

而当你处于顺风顺水时，你会觉得自己像个国王。

And, you feel like you're the king.

是的。

Yeah.

但当你处于跷跷板的错误一侧时，我过去的做法是把电话放下。

But, when you're on the wrong side of the seesaw, what I used to do is I used to put the phone down.

我会去洗手间，打一桶水，拿一块抹布，给办公室的植物浇水，因为这比接电话便宜多了。

I used to go in the bathroom, fill a bucket with water, take a rag, and I would wash the plants in the office because it was much cheaper than me picking up the phone.

所以，当人们打电话来问，‘我能和霍华德说话吗？’

So, and then people would call and say, you know, can I speak to Howard?

他们会说，不，他在开会。

They'd no, he's in a meeting.

与此同时，他们会抬头一看，发现我正在浇花。

And meanwhile, they'd look up and there I am washing the plant.

因为无论我做什么，我都会回去碰它，或者事情就会搞砸。

Because whatever I did, I would get back in there and I'd touch it, or it would go the wrong way.

所以，结果就是，印度正好处于跷跷板的错误一侧。

So, what happened is, India just was, you know, on the wrong side of the seesaw.

而且，并不是他们不想做，而是他们在需要的时候就是做不到。

And, it wasn't it was just they couldn't get it done when they needed to.

然后，他们还是做不到。

And then, they couldn't get it done.

然后，还是做不到。

And then, couldn't get it done.

于是，其他所有国家都在不断做交易，而印度却一直排在后面。

And, so, what happened is all these other countries kept doing deals and they're just further in the back of the line.

现在，当他们说，但我想要的是英国和越南之间的那份交易，对吧。

And, now, when they say, but but what I want is I want the deal in between The UK and Vietnam Right.

因为那就是我谈判的时候。

Because that's when I negotiate.

对。

Right.

他们记得，我也记得。

And they and they remember, and I remember.

他们说，但你同意了。

And they say, but but you agreed.

我说，那时候。

And I said, then.

那时候。

Then.

不是现在，是那时候。

Not now, then.

所以这就是问题所在。

And so that's that's the problem.

印度会解决这个问题的。

India will work it out.

但你知道，有太多国家了，每个国家都有其复杂的内部政治。

But it's just, you know, there's a lot of countries and and they each have their own deep internal politics.

嗯。

Mhmm.

要让他们的议会、国会或类似机构批准某事，这些都是极其复杂的事情。

And to get something approved by their parliament or their diet or their you know, these are deeply complex things.

而且，我们在应对整个世界，但我们已经完成了这些任务。

And and, we're dealing with the world, but we've gotten them done.

你知道，我们已经搞定欧洲了。

You know, we got Europe done.

对吧？

Right?

我们先搞定了日本，然后是欧洲，接着是韩国，一个国家接一个国家地完成了。

We did Japan, then we did Europe, then we did Korea, and and we've done country after country after country.

这些协议都是持久性的，意味着它们涵盖了本国的汽车、制药、半导体等真正重要的领域。

And and these are durable, meaning these are deals that take care of the country's auto, pharmaceutical, semiconductors, you know, things that really matter.

关税非常有效，可以用它来改变贸易逆差。

And, the tariffs have been incredibly effective, and you can use them to change the trade deficit.

当然。

Sure.

但你也可以用它来改变行为。

But, you can also use them to change behavior.

我们应该花点时间谈谈药物和

We should spend some time talking about drugs and

制药。

pharmaceutical.

这正是我想做的。

Well, is what wanted to do.

让我们深入探讨人工智能和药物，但先从药物开始。

Let's double click into AI and drugs, but let's start with drugs.

所以你深度参与了一些制药重新定价和制造协议。

So you were pretty integrally involved in some of the pharmaceutical repricing and manufacturing deals.

请给我们讲讲这些协议的目标是什么，以及美国人将如何感受到你所达成协议的影响。

Just walk us through what the goal of those were and and how Americans will feel the impact of the deals that you've been able to get done.

所有研究制药的人都知道，美国是客户、消费者和支付方。

So everybody who studies pharmaceuticals learns that America is the client, is the consumer, is the payer.

全球都是。

Worldwide.

全球都是。

Worldwide.

我们支付了所有的钱。

We pay all the money.

这些制药公司75%的收入来自美国，而利润则100%来自美国。

So, these drug companies make 75% of their revenues in America and it's a 100% of their profits.

因为实际情况是，我们为一种药物支付，比如说一千美元。

Because what happens is we pay, let's say, a thousand dollars for a drug.

然后欧洲说，是的，我们实行的是社会化医疗。

And then Europe says, yeah, we have socialized medicine.

除非你们的成本是多少，否则我们不买。

We're not buying it unless what's your cost?

制药公司说，100美元。

The drug company says, a $100.

于是他们说，我们愿意出175美元。

So, they say, we'll pay you a $175.

你可以赚75美元。

You can make $75.

但制药公司说，不行。

Then, the drug company says, no.

然后欧洲说，好吧，那我们就不买了。

Then, Europe says, okay, I'm not buying it then.

你会说，你什么意思，不买了？

You'd say, what do you mean you're not buying it?

你不打算给你的人民提供药物吗？

You're not going give medicine to your people?

他们说，不给。

They go, no.

我们负担不起吗？

We can't afford it?

不给。

No.

于是，制药公司说，好吧。

So, the drug company says, fine.

所以我们花了一千美元，却只支付了175美元。

So, we're paying a thousand and paying a $175.

你知道吗，如果价格低六倍，你会说：什么？

You know, six times less and you'd be like, what?

这就是全球药品模式的运作方式。

And, that is how the whole world's drug model was working.

我们支付一千美元，而世界上的其他人都只支付175美元。

We're paying a thousand, everyone else in the world is paying a $175.

所以唐纳德·特朗普说，我想解决这个问题，我要最惠国价格。

So Donald Trump says, I want to fix it, and I want MFN price.

你想向我们收费？

You want to charge us?

最惠国待遇。

Most favored nations.

最惠国待遇。

Most favored nations.

所以我们是世界上价格最低的。

So We're the cheapest price in the world.

对。

Right.

但你可以向他们收500美元，然后也向我们收500美元。

But you could charge them 500, and then you could charge us 500.

好吧。

Fine.

对。

Right.

但如果你愿意以175美元卖给它们，就别跑来跟我说我得付一千美元。

But if you're willing to sell it to them for a $175, don't come here and tell me that I have to pay a thousand.

对。

Right.

这太不公平了。

It's just unfair.

你无权在美国定价。

You're not dictating price in America.

你实际上是在规定国外的最低价格。

You're essentially dictating the lower bound price abroad.

我们是在维护公平。

We are dictating fairness.

公平。

Fairness.

是啊。

Yeah.

比如，如果我们是你们最大的客户，就公平对待我们。

Like, if we're your biggest customer, treat us like fairly.

我们甚至没说要对我们最好。

We're not even saying treat us the best.

我们只是说公平对待我们。

We're saying treat us fairly.

我的意思是，这太惊人了。

I mean, it's amazing.

所以他写了一封信给17家大型制药公司，说：我要最惠国待遇。

So, he writes a letter to 17 giant pharmaceutical companies that said, I want MFN.

我得告诉你，这个政府里没人相信他能办到。

And I got to tell you, I don't know a single person in this administration who thought he could do it.

这太大胆了，太有魄力了，太有力量了。

It was so audacious, so bold, so powerful.

我当时想，天哪。

I was like, oh, jeez.

我的意思是，你直接给所有大药企写封信，说你们必须给我们最惠国待遇，还要写得严厉一点，我就想，好吧。

I mean, you know, you just write a letter to all the big drug companies saying, you're going to give us MFN and you like write a stern letter and I'm like, okay.

祝你好运。

Good luck with that.

这事儿怎么才能成呢？

How's this baby going to work?

对。

Correct.

然后呢，我和我们的团队与鲍比·肯尼迪及其团队进行了一次非常棒的会面。

You know, and then, so I sit with we have this amazing meeting with Bobby Kennedy and his team.

我们说，看，我这里有23.2美分的关税。

And we say, look, I've got these $2.32 tariffs.

我可以彻底击垮这些公司。

I could smash these companies.

击垮它们，因为它们都在海外生产，然后出口到我们这里，赚走了我们所有的钱。

Smash them because they all make it overseas and then export it to us and we're all the money.

所以我们可以对它们征收任何关税，甚至高达500%。

So we could charge them any tariff we want, could charge them 500%.

让我们做一件前所未有的事情。

So let's do something that's never been done before.

让我们真正成为一个团队。

Let's literally be a team.

好吗？

Okay?

你来领导。

You lead.

所以，鲍比和他的团队，还有奥兹医生、克里斯·克拉布，这些家伙干得实在太棒了。

So, Bobby and his team who are amazing, doctor Oz, Chris Klubb, I mean, these guys did spectacular job.

很棒的家伙。

Great guys.

他们带头，但我才是锤子。

They led, but I was the hammer.

对吧？

Right?

从摆桌人变成锤子？

From table setter to hammer?

变成锤子。

To hammer.

所以，现在我是锤子了。

So, now I'm the hammer.

好吧。

Okay.

对吧？

Right?

所以，我就像是在幕后当锤子。

So, I'm like in the background like hammer.

然后，比如说，你看，我们从你这里需要两样东西。

And then, like, say, look, you have two things we want from you.

我们想要你最好的药物，并且以最惠国价格。

We want your best drugs at MFN prices.

你不能以比卖给我们的价格更低的价格卖给世界上的任何人。

You can't sell it to anybody in the world at a better price than you sell to us.

在那些有钱的国家中。

Of the countries that have money.

对。

Right.

对吧？

Right?

我们不是在说你是否卖给撒哈拉以南非洲，我们说的是像你所知道的那些大国，经合组织国家。

We're not talking about if you sell it to Sub Sahara Africa, we're talking about, you know, the big countries, the OECD.