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好了，各位。
Alright, everybody.
欢迎回到《All In》播客，你们最爱的播客，也是播客主们最爱的播客。
Welcome back to the All In podcast, your favorite podcast, podcaster's favorite podcast.
今天和我一起的还是最初的四人组，Shmoth Palihapatiha 穿着一件绝妙的冬季毛衣，一月天里真是亮眼。
With me again, the original quartet is here, Shmoth Palihapatiha in just an absolutely fabulous winter sweater, January.
看起来很棒。
Looking great.
看看这些纽扣有多大。
Look at the size of those buttons.
巨大的纽扣。
Huge buttons.
为了做这些纽扣，死了多少只犀牛？
How many rhinos died to provide those buttons?
一只犀牛都没死。
Zero rhinos.
零只犀牛。
Zero rhinos.
我是个简单的人，过着简单的生活。
I'm a simple man that lives by simple means.
好的。
Okay.
真美。
Beautiful.
真美。
Beautiful.
你的科学苏丹大卫·弗里德伯格，背景是什么？
And your sultan of science, David Friedberg, what's the background here?
那是种忧郁而无尽的悲伤背景吗？
Is that in is that a melancholy and infinite sadness background?
我正想弄明白。
I'm trying to figure it out.
J.
J.
卡尔，我们不谈我的背景。
Cal, we don't talk about my background.
谢谢。
Thank you.
这看起来像是由传奇乐队碎南瓜乐队发行的双专辑《忧郁与无尽的悲伤》。
It looks like melancholy and the infinite sadness by the double album by the amazing band Smashing Pumpkins.
我猜得对吗？
Am I close?
还是说这是那张专辑的原始封面艺术？
Or is it the original artwork of that?
别谈我的背景。
Don't talk about my backgrounds.
你从不谈你的背景。
You don't talk about your backgrounds.
别谈你的背景。
Don't talk about your background.
很多。
Much.
你给了我这么多素材可以发挥。
Giving me so much to work with here.
幸运的是，我有我的搭档，我的战友，我的达沃斯派对闯入者，大卫·萨克斯。
Luckily, I have my straight man, my brother in arms, my Davos party crashing partner, David Sacks.
我给你弄到了第一个进入高端专属场合的邀请。
I got you your first invite to something elite and exclusive.
我
I
我的意思是，我25年前就被邀请去了。
mean, I got invited to go twenty five years ago.
他们只要50美分，但我们玩得很开心。
They just wanted 50 dimes, but we had a fun time.
是的。
Yeah.
我们玩得很开心。
We had a good time.
我们玩得很开心。
We had a good time.
对达沃斯世界经济论坛有什么印象吗？
Any post Davos WEF impressions?
我们进行了很多有趣的会议，但大部分我觉得不适合在节目中讨论。
We had a lot of interesting meetings, so most of which I don't think we can talk about on air.
但，是的，那是个很有趣的活动。
But, yeah, it was it was an interesting interesting event.
我们住在一个大约有300年历史的木屋裡。
We were staying in a log cabin that was, like, 300 years old.
天花板大约只有六英尺高，门框也只有五英尺高，所以我们好几次都撞到了头。
The ceilings were, like, six feet high, and the door frames were, like, five feet high, so bumped our heads a couple of times.
是的。
Yeah.
真是太疯狂了。
Was pretty crazy.
那真是残酷。
It was brutal.
我的意思是，网上看起来还不错。
I mean, it it looked good on the web.
那个地方的照片看起来很棒。
The photos of the place looked amazing.
照片看起来很棒。
Photos look great.
是的。
Yeah.
但我认为你得置身于那个圈子里。
But I think you need to be inside the circle.
你需要置身其中，而不是每天开车进去一趟。
You need to be inside the thick of it, not driving in every day.
但那届达沃斯明显不同。
But it was a distinctly different Davos.
我们多年来一直嘲笑达沃斯。
We've mocked Davos here for many years.
但这一次是一场商业接管，也是特朗普的接管。
But this one was a business takeover and a Trump takeover.
没错。
Correct.
查马斯，你一定会喜欢。
Chamath, you would have loved it.
前一整天半，所有人都在焦虑地揣测唐纳德·特朗普见到他老爸时会说什么。
It was one point five days of everybody hand wringing of what Donald Trump would say when daddy got there.
然后，在他老爸演讲的七十五分钟里，整个城市都停摆了。
Then for the seventy five minutes daddy gave his talk, the entire city shut down.
每个人都跑去看电视。
Everybody ran to a television set.
接下来的一点五天里，大家都在谈论特朗普说了什么。
Then for the next one point five days, everybody talked about what Trump said.
基本上是这样。
Basically.
根据我听到的，我觉得与以往的达沃斯相比有两个显著的不同，因为这是我第一次参加。
I think there were two really big differences with Estabos based on what I heard because this is the first time I've attended.
一是它更加以商业为中心。
One is it was much more business centric.
其次，那里有更多美国人，美国人的存在感强得多。
And then second, there were a lot more Americans there, a much bigger American presence.
我认为这是因为特朗普总统在那里发表了重要演讲。
And I think that that owes to the fact that president Trump gave a major speech there.
我认为这可能是由现在担任整个活动主席的拉里·芬克所策划的。
And I think it was Larry Fink, who's chairman of the whole thing now, who sort of orchestrated that.
是的。
Yeah.
他希望让特朗普总统出席，我认为他还推动活动变得更加以商业为中心。
And he he wanted to get president Trump there, and I think he's pushed for them to be a little bit more business centric.
感觉他们对一些小众的欧洲政治议题的迎合减少了。
And it feels like they're catering a little bit less to kinda boutique European political issues.
尽管这显然是其中的重要部分。
Although that's clearly a big part of it.
如果要说令人难忘的时刻，其中一个就是——我只提这个，因为我觉得它已经被公开报道过了。
I would say in terms of memorable moments, a big one was I'm only gonna talk about this because I think it was publicly reported.
否则我不会提起这件事。
Otherwise, I wouldn't bring it up.
但在开幕晚宴上。
But there was this opening night dinner.
于是拉里·芬克邀请了大约五个人发表简短讲话。
And so Larry Fink calls on, like, five people to give little speeches.
他最后点到的是我们的商务部长霍华德·卢德尼克。
And the last one he called on was Howard Ludnick, our secretary of commerce.
而且
And
霍华德一上台就开始对他们抛出一个个真相炸弹。
Howard just goes up there and he just starts dropping truth bombs on them.
而且，他这些话都是在达沃斯的演讲中公开说的，我认为就是那天或第二天。
And and again, he said all of this on the record in his remarks at Davos, I think either that day or the next day.
所以，我并不是在泄露内部信息。
So again, I'm not talking out of school.
这些都是他亲口说过的话。
It was all stuff that he said.
但他基本上是对所有欧洲人说：听好了，我来这里三十年了，你们彻底失败了。
But basically, he said to like all the Europeans, he said, look, I've been coming here for thirty years and you guys have completely failed.
你们用这些净零排放、气候变化和能源政策把经济搞得一团糟。
You've wrecked your economies with all this net zero stuff and climate change and energy.
他接着就开始猛烈抨击那个话题，然后是所有关于开放边境的问题。
And he just started blasting on that and then all the open border stuff.
他真是毫不留情地揭露了他们。
He really let them have it.
我的意思是，那真的是真相。
I mean, was really the truth.
当他逐渐进入状态时，观众席里传来一阵令人不安的窸窣声，你知道的。
And then there was this uncomfortable like rustling in the audience, you know, as he was, like, gathering steam.
后来有报道称，阿尔·戈尔在最后开始嘘他。
And then it's been reported Al Gore started booing at the end.
喝多了夏敦埃酒？
Drunk on chardonnay?
这是真的吗？
Is that true?
我无法确认那个人是不是阿尔·戈尔，但我确实听到了有人发出嘘声，而且我觉得那就是阿尔·戈尔
I can't verify that it was Al Gore, but I definitely heard somebody, and I think it was Al Gore who
就像《芝麻街》里阳台上的那两个家伙，斯塔特勒和那个谁，就是沃尔多夫。
was It's like the two guys from the Muppets and the balcony, Statler and whoever, and it's just like Waldorf.
攥在他拳头里。
In his fist.
沃尔多夫和斯塔特勒。
Waldorf and Statler.
好吧，你看。
Well, look.
我
I
我的意思是，是的。
mean Yeah.
沃尔多夫和斯塔特勒。
Waldorf and Statler.
整个气候变化这件事，其实是阿尔·戈尔从九十年代就开始搞的大骗局。
This whole climate change thing was Al Gore's big hoax going back to the nineties.
是的。
And Yeah.
那么，他是否
Well, did he
赢得过奥斯卡奖？
win an Oscar?
他赢得过奥斯卡奖。
He won an Oscar.
对吧？
Right?
没错。
Mean Absolutely.
比尔·盖茨已经承认，这并不是一场生存威胁。
Bill Gates has acknowledged that this is not an existential threat.
这个问题是可以解决的。
It can be dealt with.
你知道的？
You know?
所以我认为，关于整个Well议程，那种热潮已经过去了。
So I think the bloom is off the rose in terms of that whole Well agenda.
我说，达沃斯论坛上，虽然必须承认，那里大多数人可能仍然赞同阿尔·戈尔的观点。
I'd say that Davos although to be sure, I'd say most people there still probably agree with Al Gore.
我的意思是，他们并没有改变自己的政策。
I mean, they haven't changed their policies.
我谈的是欧洲国家，尽管他们在追踪自己的经济状况。
I'm talking about the European countries even though tracking their economies.
他们被这种净零理念所束缚。
They are beholden to this net zero idea.
感觉他们正处于转型期，慌乱地试图弄清楚该往哪个方向走。
It feels like they're in transition and scrambling to try to figure out where they what direction they should go in.
他们觉得无法信任美国，或者认为我们不再是他们可靠的伙伴。
They don't feel they can trust America or that we're not their, like, reliable partner.
我们不会救助他们。
We're not gonna bail them out.
我们也不会保护他们，等等。
We're not gonna protect them, etcetera.
他们必须团结起来，作为中等经济体——也就是排名第五到第二十的经济体，建立自己的投票联盟和贸易联盟，独自前行，自掏腰包。
And they're gonna have to sort of get together as the mids, mid tier economies, economies five through 20, and they're gonna just have to build their own voting block, their own trading block, and go it alone and spend their own money
为自己的国防花钱。
for their defense.
这叫欧盟。
It's called the EU.
就是这样。
It's just Yeah.
但成效并不显著，因为我认为他们的能源政策和开放边境政策存在问题。
Has not been very successful because I think of their own policies, their energy policies and the open border policies.
如果连顶级人工智能或顶级武器都没有，‘独自前行’到底意味着什么？
I'm not sure what going it alone means if you don't have best in class AI or best in class weapons.
当然。
Absolutely.
我认为这意味着他们必须开始投资这些领域，购买武器，制造武器。
I I think it means they're gonna have to start investing in those things, buying weapons, making weapons.
他们几乎什么都没有。
They don't have much of anything.
是的。
Yeah.
我认为这意味着加拿大、欧盟以及所有其他感到自己正被特朗普政府剥夺支持的国家。
I I think it means Canada and the EU and all these other countries that feel, hey.
我们即将被特朗普政府抽走地毯。
We're we're we're gonna have our rug pulled by the Trump administration.
我们只能团结起来，发展贸易，我们看到中国和加拿大达成了大额协议，我认为这正是他们在说：嘿。
We're just gonna have to band together and create commerce, and we saw China and Canada do a big deal, and I think that's them just trying to say, hey.
我们在这里拥有一定的主权。
We have some sovereignty here.
我们打算和加拿大合作，把比亚迪汽车引进来，并且嘿，它们会成为我们的主要贸易伙伴。
We're gonna do a partnership with Canada and bring BYD cars in here and, hey, they'll be our big trading partner.
所以，我认为这是另一方的反应。
So, you know, that's the reaction, I think, on the other side.
但他们没有。
But they don't.
他们没有什么？
They don't what?
他们拥有的自由度并没有他们想象的那么多，因为大国才定义了国际体系，而不是中等强国。
They don't have as many degrees of freedom as they think they do because great powers define the international system, not mid tier powers.
即使中等或低等强国联合起来，也无法重新定义国际体系。
And a bunch of second or third tier powers cannot redefine the international system even if they band together.
我认为归根结底，欧洲人明白美国的重要性。
And I think at the end of the day, the Europeans, they understand the importance of The United States.
特别是，他们希望美国继续留在欧洲。
And specifically, they wanna keep The US in Europe.
我的意思是，他们迫切希望维持北约的团结，让美国继续对欧洲保持兴趣和存在。
I mean, they're desperate to keep NATO together and to keep The US interested and present in Europe.
因为别忘了，在美国人到来之前，欧洲的历史是长达数百年的战争和彼此不断争斗。
Because just remember, European history, before the Americans were there, it's like hundreds of years of wars and constantly fighting each other
没错。
Exactly.
最终演变为第一次世界大战、第二次世界大战，几乎是欧洲的自我毁灭。
Culminating in World War one, World War two, basically the total self destruction of Europe.
而他们经历过的最和平时期，正是1945年之后，美国作为伟大的和平维护者驻扎在此时。
And the most peaceful period they've ever experienced has been post 1945 when the Americans are there as the great pacifier.
所以他们并不希望我们离开，我认为他们愿意向美国做出重大让步，以确保我们继续留在这里，尽管他们可能会对此抱怨。
So they do not want us leaving, and I think they're willing to make large concessions to The US to ensure that we stay there even though they'll probably grumble about it.
但在我看来，特朗普总统的意思是：你们也得承担一部分负担。
But I think that to that end, I think that what president Trump was saying is, look, you guys got a share in the burden here.
我们一直为这一切买单。
We've been paying for this whole thing.
是的
Yeah.
不
No.
这完全说得通。
It makes total sense.
他们已经将北约军费提升到3%，并且还要增至5%。
And they got their spending up to 3% for NATO, and they're gonna go to five.
所以这方面目标达成了。
So mission accomplished on that.
是的。
Yes.
至于格陵兰，他说，你知道，我们我们我们
And on Greenland, he's like, look, you know, we we we
那才是最精彩的部分
That was the best part
演讲的这部分。
of the speech.
他就像说，
He's like,
你想让我谈谈格陵兰吗？
do you want me talk about Greenland?
你。
You.
你得为我们做点什么。
You gotta do something for us.
这必须是双向的。
This has gotta be a two way
第四十街。
40 street.
五分钟后。
Five minutes in.
就像是，你希望我谈谈格陵兰吗？
It's like, do you want me to talk about Greenland?
我可以谈谈这个。
I could talk about it.
你准备好了吗？
I you ready?
我现在就要讲这个。
I'm gonna talk about it right now.
然后他就开始讲起来了。
And then he starts talking about it.
但他后来开始把格陵兰叫成冰岛，房间里所有人都愣住了，等等。
But then he starts calling it Iceland, and everybody in the room's like, wait.
他也想要冰岛？
He wants Iceland too?
当时整个热议都是特朗普要拿下冰岛和格陵兰。
And the whole buzz was Trump's gonna take Iceland and Greenland.
然后，你知道的，他有点退缩了，但我们不会去入侵。
And then, you know, he sort of backed down, but we're not gonna invade.
然后大家似乎都松了一口气。
And then there was like a sort of sigh of relief.
但你认为他们真的以为，萨克斯，他会去入侵格陵兰并占领它吗？
But do you think they actually thought, Sacks, that he was going to invade Greenland to take it?
我的意思是，我不知道。
Well, I mean, I don't know.
我认为，显然他们觉得这是有可能的，但确实如此。
I think that, obviously, they thought it was a possibility, but Yeah.
总统已经排除了使用武力的可能性。
The president took the use of force off the table.
是的，我觉得那时你确实感到松了一口气。
And, yeah, I think you did feel a sigh of relief there.
我觉得你说得对。
I think you're right.
但我觉得我们也不知道细节。
But I think that also I mean, we don't know the details.
这些细节还没有公开报道，但我认为北约秘书长马克·鲁塔在达沃斯召集了一次会议，就这个问题达成了一个可接受的妥协。
They haven't been publicly reported, but there was some sort of meeting at Davos that was convened, I think, by the NATO secretary general, Mark Ruta, where they negotiated an acceptable compromise on the issue.
所以我相信我们迟早会了解到细节，但可以肯定的是，特朗普总统得到了他想要的足够多的东西，因此对达成的协议感到满意。
So I'm sure we'll find out the details in due course, but it's safe to say that president Trump got enough of what he wanted that he was satisfied with what they worked out.
我不知道他们怎么就真的相信了，这就像露西和查理的足球游戏。
I don't know how they just like it's like Lucy with the football and Charlie.
就好像他会把球抽走。
It's like, he's gonna pull the football.
他只是把军事入侵和占领作为谈判的锚点。
Like, he's just anchoring the negotiations at a military invasion and takeover.
他显然只是想要一个租约。
He obviously is just gonna go for a lease.
他们根本不知道，你知道，我们现在处于特朗普总统任期的第五年或第六年了。
It's like, they they don't know it in year, you know, whatever we're in now, year year five or six, year six of Trump being president.
他们现在应该明白了。
Like, they should get it by now.
他总是把立场定得荒谬到不可能的地步，然后退回到他真正想要的结果。
He just anchors things at an impossible, insane level, and then he falls back to whatever he really wanted.
这是一种经典的谈判技巧。
It's a classic negotiating technique.
好的。
Alright.
我们手头有很多事要处理。
We got a lot on the docket.
开始工作吧。
Let's get to work.
大家都想听四位风险投资家和投资者谈谈明尼阿波利斯的糟糕状况。
Everyone wants to hear four venture capitalists and investors talk about the horrific situation in Minneapolis.
那么，我们开始吧。
So here we go.
背景是，我
For background, I
意思是杰森。
mean Jason.
背景信息：上个月，国土安全部启动了一项名为“地铁突击”的行动，派遣了3000名联邦特工进入明尼苏达州打击非法移民。
For background last month, the DHS started an operation called Metro Surge, sending 3,000 federal agents into Minnesota to crack down on illegal aliens.
在过去三周里，有两名明尼苏达州居民在与联邦特工的冲突中不幸丧生。
Over the last three weeks, two Minnesotans were tragically killed in altercations with federal agents.
1月7日，37岁的雷妮·古德被一名移民与海关执法局特工开枪打死。
January 7, 37 year old Renee Goode was shot to death by an ICE agent.
这起事件中，古德当时驾车加速，而她的车已被特工包围。
This incident involved Goode accelerating her car, which was surrounded by agents at the time.
我们仍在等待最终调查结果，但据称开了三枪，一发穿过前挡风玻璃，可能还有两发从侧面射入。
We're still waiting for the final investigation on this one, but apparently three shots, one through the front windshield, perhaps two through the side.
所有这些细节仍在调查中。
All these details are still being investigated then.
不幸的是，1月24日，37岁的亚历克斯·普雷蒂被两名边境巡逻队员开枪打死，而不是ICE人员。
Tragically, on January 24, Alex Preti, also 37, was shot and killed by two border patrol agents, not ICE.
普雷蒂是当地退伍军人医院重症监护室的一名护士。
Preti was an ICU nurse at the local VA hospital.
网上有大量逐帧分析的视频资料。
There's a ton of frame by frame breakdowns available.
《纽约时报》和《华尔街日报》对这些内容做了很好的报道。
New York Times and Wall Street Journal did a good job on these.
所以我认为，也许我们最好集中讨论这件事的后续影响和处理结果，不过你们如果对逐帧分析感兴趣，也可以自由发表看法。
So I think maybe it's best for us to focus here on maybe the aftermath of all this and the resolution, but you guys can feel free to chime in on the frame by frame breakdowns if you like.
斯蒂芬·米勒分五次发推称，弗雷迪是一名企图刺杀联邦特工的刺客。
In five parts, Stephen Miller tweeted that Freddie was an assassin trying to murder federal agents.
一位消息人士告诉Axios，诺姆说：我所做的一切，都是在总统和斯蒂芬的指示下进行的——这里的斯蒂芬就是斯蒂芬·米勒。
A source told Axios that Noam said everything I've done, I've done at the direction of the president and Stephen, Stephen being Stephen Miller.
格雷格·博维诺已被停职，其社交媒体账号也被关闭。
Greg Bovino has been removed from duty and had his social media accounts turned off.
特朗普总统已经调整策略，转变立场，并任命汤姆·霍曼负责。
President Trump has pivoted, evolved, and put Tom Homan in charge.
特朗普写道：‘汤姆强硬但公正，将直接向我汇报。’
Quote, Tom is tough but fair and will report directly to me, Trump wrote.
在本次录制时（每周四），今天上午举行了一场新闻发布会，以下是汤姆·霍曼所说的话。
And at the time of this taping, which is on Thursdays, there was a press conference this morning, and here is what Tom Homan said.
三十秒后，我们将转向萨克斯，请你对此发表看法。
And after thirty seconds, we'll go to you, Sachs, for your reaction to all this.
任何机构组织都不可能完美。
No agency organization is perfect.
特朗普总统和我，以及政府其他人员，都认识到某些改进是必要且应当进行的。
President Trump and I, along with others in administration, have recognized that certain improvements could and should be made.
这正是我目前正在做的。
That's exactly what I'm doing here.
如果我们达成这些协议，就意味着街头的特工减少，监狱里的特工增加。
So if we get these agreements in place, that means less agents on the street, more agents in the jail.
事实上，我有来自海关和边境保护局以及移民和海关执法局的工作人员正在制定缩减计划。
Matter of fact, I have staff from CBP and from ICE working on a drawdown plan.
基于合作，这会是什么样子？
What does that look like based on the cooperation?
萨克斯，你的看法？
Sacks, your thoughts?
首先，我要说，雷妮·古德和亚历克斯·普雷蒂的死亡令人遗憾且悲惨。
Well, first let me say the deaths of Renee Goode and Alex Preti are regrettable and and tragic.
林肯·莱利、乔塞琳·努加雷、蕾切尔·莫兰、维多利亚·哈韦尔、艾弗里·史密斯以及其他许多被刑事非法移民杀害的受害者，他们的死亡也同样令人痛心，多得数不胜数。
So are the deaths of Lincoln Riley, Jocelyn Nungare, Rachel Moran, Victoria Harwell, Ivory Smith, and too many others to mention who are murdered by criminal illegal aliens.
而媒体永远不会告诉你他们的名字。
And the media won't ever tell you their names.
但总统特朗普是被美国人民雇佣来完成一项任务的，那就是封锁边境并驱逐刑事非法移民，以防止未来再发生更多此类悲剧。
But president Trump was hired by the American people to do a job, which is to seal the border and deport criminal aliens so that more of these tragedies do not occur in the future.
这是一项广受欢迎的政策。
And this is a popular policy.
超过55%的美国人表示希望将所有非法移民驱逐出境，超过90%的人希望将犯罪的非法移民遣返。
Over 55% of the American people say they want all illegal aliens deported, and over 90% want criminal aliens removed.
我所说的犯罪非法移民，是指那些非法入境后再次犯罪的人。
And by criminal aliens, I'm referring to the ones who commit additional crimes after they enter the country illegally.
这项政策正在发挥作用。
Now this policy is working.
去年谋杀案减少了21%。
Murders were down 21% last year.
这是有记录以来最好的年份之一。
It's one of the best years in record.
在大多数州，这一过程顺利进行，不会登上全国新闻。
And in most states, the process is smooth and doesn't make national news.
原因在于地方执法部门与移民与海关执法局合作。
And the reason for that is because local authorities are cooperating with ICE.
但明尼阿波利斯采取了不同的做法。
But Minneapolis has taken a different approach.
他们发起了一场针对联邦当局的所谓大规模抵抗运动。
They've engaged in a campaign of quote massive resistance to federal authorities.
让我们谈谈当地实际发生的情况。
So let's talk about what's actually happening there on the ground.
我认为首先要明白的是，这里发生的事情远不止是抗议。
I think the first thing to understand is that what's happening is much more than just protests.
当然，我并不反对人们和平示威并表达观点，但这里的情况并非如此。
And obviously I have no problem with people peacefully protesting and making their opinions known, but that's not what's going on here.
这些是类似安提法的行动，旨在阻挠联邦移民法的执行。
These are Antifa style operations designed to thwart the enforcement of federal immigration law.
他们组织严密。
They're highly organized.
他们通过加密聊天群组进行沟通。
They're communicating in encrypted chat groups.
他们跟踪并曝光ICE特工的个人信息。
They stalk and dox ICE agents.
他们跟踪这些人穿梭于城镇各处。
They follow them around town.
他们包围这些人在酒店里。
They surround them at their hotels.
他们用汽车堵住道路。
They use their cars to block roads.
他们使用扩音器和口哨警告即将被逮捕的罪犯。
And they use bullhorns and whistles to alert criminals who are about to be arrested.
记住，移民与海关执法局是一个执法机构。
Remember, ICE is a law enforcement agency.
尽管有言论将他们比作盖世太保，但他们持有逮捕已知犯罪外籍人士的逮捕令。
They have warrants to arrest known criminal aliens despite this rhetoric of them being like the Gestapo.
他们针对的是有逮捕令的特定个人。
They are going after specific named individuals for whom they have warrants to arrest.
这些任务非常危险，而这些煽动者正在干涉并使这些任务变得更加危险。
These are dangerous missions and these agitators are interfering and making these missions even more dangerous.
现在媒体试图将雷妮·古德等人描绘成无辜的旁观者或和平抗议ICE政策的人。
Now the media has tried to portray good and pretty as simply innocent bystanders or people who were peacefully protesting ICE policies.
他们并不是。
They weren't.
他们是这些反法西斯风格行动的先锋，并且最重要的是，他们携带了致命武器参与其中。
They were foot soldiers in these Antifa style operations and most importantly, they brought deadly weapons to the fight.
因此，雷妮·古德用她的SUV撞击了一名警官，根据蒂姆·沃尔兹本人于2020年签署的明尼苏达州法律，这足以使警官使用致命武力自卫。
So Renee Good hit an officer with her SUV, which under a Minnesota law signed by Tim Walz himself in 2020, justifies the use of deadly force by an officer to defend himself.
而亚历克斯·普雷蒂的行为更加鲁莽。
And Alex Preti was even more reckless.
我想我们大多数人可能都看过那段视频，他主动挑衅ICE官员。
I think we've probably all seen the video by now where he sought confrontation with ICE officials.
他正在踢那辆车。
He was kicking the car.
他当时处于暴怒状态。
He was in a rage.
这并不是他第一次这么做了。
This wasn't his first time doing this.
任何有经验的枪手都会告诉你，如果你持械且面对执法人员，你必须成为世界上最温顺的人，因为你让对方感到自己的生命受到威胁，从而将自己置于危险之中。
And any experienced gunner will tell you that if you're armed and you're dealing with law enforcement, you have to be the world's biggest pacifist because you're putting your life in danger by making them fear that their lives are in danger.
我认为主流媒体并没有向人们披露这些事实。
And I think the mainstream media didn't tell people these facts.
他们只是展示了高度选择性的镜头角度。
They just presented highly selective camera angles.
他们甚至对普雷蒂进行了修图和美颜，让他看起来更像个英俊的受害者，这真是令人作呕。
They even airbrushed and facetuned prettier to make him appear to be a more, I guess, handsome victim, which is truly sick.
某种程度上，我为古德和普雷蒂感到惋惜，因为他们是明尼苏达州由蒂姆·沃尔兹、雅各布·弗莱和政治精英们制造的火药桶的受害者。
Now in a way, I feel sorry for Good and Pretty because they were the victims of a tinderbox that was created in Minnesota by the extreme rhetoric and decisions of Tim Walz, Jacob Fry, and the political establishment.
明尼阿波利斯的当地警方本应被允许通过设立警戒线、将抗议者与执行合法逮捕令的移民执法官员隔离开来，以维持街道安全。
The local police in Minneapolis should have been allowed to keep conditions safe on the street by creating a perimeter and keeping protesters away from ICE officers who were executing lawful warrants of arrest.
但警方却被命令不得干预，随后煽动者趁机介入，利用这种权力真空进行身体干预。
But the police were told not to, and then the agitator stepped in and they took advantage of this sort of vacuum of authority to physically intervene.
所以我认为，由于这种对公共安全的弃守，某种悲剧的发生几乎是不可避免的。
So I think it was almost inevitable that some sort of tragedy was gonna result from this abdication of public safety.
那么，为什么沃尔顿货运公司要冒着如此巨大的风险进行强烈抵抗呢？
Now why would Walton Freight want to risk such tragedies with their massive resistance?
我认为这背后有两个原因。
I think there's two reasons for this.
这是我想要强调的最后一点。
This is the last point I wanna make.
首先，他们迫切希望转移人们对他们在任期间纵容的数十亿美元欺诈行为的注意力。
First, they are desperate to change the subject from the billions of dollars of fraud that they allow to occur on their watch.
还记得几周前我们节目中的尼克·谢里尔谈到，有大约80亿美元被索马里诈骗分子盗走吗？
Remember, we had Nick Shirley on the show just a few weeks ago talking about the 8,000,000,000 or so that was stolen by Somali fraudsters.
而明尼阿波利斯这场抵抗运动，成功地让所有人都忘记了这件事。
And this campaign of resistance in Minneapolis has done a really good job of making everyone forget about that.
但我认为还有一个更深层的原因，这同样适用于全国性的民主党人，那就是他们希望阻止大规模驱逐，因为非法移民是他们权力基础的重要组成部分。
But I think there's a second and bigger reason that applies, and I think it applies to to national Democrats, which is they want to thwart mass deportations because illegal immigrants are a vital part of their power base.
你可以在刚刚发布的2030年席位分配预测中看到这一点。
And you can see this in the 2030 apportionment forecast which just came out.
非法移民会计入每十年一次的人口普查。
Illegal aliens count towards the census, which occurs every decade.
人口普查决定国会席位和选举人票的分配。
And the census determines the apportionment of congressional seats and electoral votes.
而这些地图显示，蓝州的公民正迁往红州，因为这些蓝州正在衰落。
And what you see in these maps is that citizens of blue states have been migrating to red states because those blue states are failing.
因此，由于人口数量的变化，蓝州预计将失去九个众议院席位和选举人票。
And as a result of that, blue states are expected to lose nine house seats and electoral votes because of the changing population numbers.
蓝州的非法移民一直在虚增这些人口数字。
Illegal aliens in blue states have been propping up those numbers.
所以，例如在上一次选举中，如果我们进行准确的人口统计，特朗普总统本可以多赢得九张选举人票。
And so for example, in the last election, president Trump would have won an additional nine electoral votes if we had an accurate accounting.
所以你看，这并不是关于原则的问题。
So look, this is not about principle.
这是赤裸裸的政治博弈。
This is bare knuckle politics.
民主党是认真的。
The Democrats are playing for keeps.
他们根本不关心在这个过程中会有多少无辜的美国人受伤或丧生。
They don't really care how many innocent Americans get hurt or killed in the process.
这关乎阻止一项广受欢迎的遣返政策和边境封控，而这项政策是美国人民投票支持的。
This is about thwarting a popular policy of deportations and sealing the border, which the American people voted for.
所以别被媒体蒙骗了。
So don't let the media fool you.
弗里德伯格·查马蒂，你对这两起悲剧性死亡有什么看法吗？
Friedberg Chamathi, you want to give your opinion on these two tragic deaths?
或者算了。
Or not.
我的意思是，如果你不想评论，我也不觉得你有义务这么做。
I mean, I don't feel you're obligated to comment on this if you don't want to.
我很乐意。
I'm happy to.
尼克，我发了一个视频片段到聊天里。
Nick, I sent a clip into the chat.
驱逐所有非法居留的移民，纽约时报55%，马凯特大学64%，CBS新闻57%，ABC新闻以略有不同的问题为56%。
Deported all immigrants who are here illegally, 55% of New York Times, Marquette, 64%, CBS News, 57, ABC News with a slightly different question, 56%.
所以你在这里看到的，非常清楚地表明，大多数美国人，事实上，当被直接问到这个问题时——我相信这触及了他们内心的真实感受——确实希望驱逐所有非法居留的移民。
So what you're seeing essentially here is very clear indication that a majority of Americans, in fact, when they're asked this blunt question, which I believe gets at the underlying feelings, do in fact wanna deport all immigrants who are here illegally.
这些不同的数据没什么好争论的，因为四个不同的民调机构得出的结果基本一致。
There's no arguing with these different numbers because they're all essentially the same across four different pollsters.
我认为萨克斯说得对，确实存在一个非常响亮的少数群体。
I think Saxe is right that there's a very, very vocal minority.
但如果我们暂时搁置这一点，现在最重要的是坚持事实。
But if we just put that aside, it's important right now to just stick to the facts.
民主本应是多数人的意愿，但也应保障和保护少数人的权利。
Democracy is supposed to be the will of the majority, but also defense and protection for the minority.
在这个例子中，正如CNN的片段所展示的，多数人的意愿非常明确。
In this example, the will of the majority is pretty clear as the CNN clip just showed.
每个人都希望关闭南部边境和北部边境，并建立一个有序的途径来处理非法移民问题。
Everybody wanted the southern border shut and the northern border shut and a structured path to deal with illegal immigration.
大卫说得对，这会引发一系列第二和第三层次的影响，对民主党掌握和维持权力的能力产生巨大影响。
David's right that that creates a cascade of second and third order effects that have huge implications with respect to the Democrats and their ability to have and curate power.
我不知道这是否是他们的动机所在。
I don't know whether this is what's motivating them or not.
我不想对此进行猜测。
I don't wanna speculate on that.
但美国人的概念性问题和概念性愿望是无可争议的。
But the conceptual problem and the conceptual desire of Americans is undisputable.
我认为这就是唐纳德·特朗普获胜的原因。
I think that's why Donald Trump won.
不过，现在我们必须探讨一下策略。
Now I think, though, we have to explore the tactics.
我认为现实是，这两起死亡事件都是彻底的悲剧，并引发了巨大的反响，有可能失去控制。
I think the reality is that both of these two deaths were complete and total tragedies, and it has created such an upswell that it has the potential to spin out of control.
如果事情真的失控，这将危及他继续履行职责并实现大家所期望的愿景的能力。
And if it does that, it risks his ability to continue doing his job and delivering on the conceptual promise that everybody wants.
另一点是，我认为到目前为止，总统做得非常出色。
The other thing is that I think that he has otherwise, the president, done an incredible job up until now.
汤姆·霍曼前往那里是一件非常好的事情。
The fact that Tom Homan is going there is a really good thing.
他曾因在奥巴马任内管理遣返程序而获得奥巴马颁发的勋章。
He was the same person that was awarded a medal by Obama for how he managed Obama's deportation process.
现在是时候掌控局势、降低紧张情绪了，因为他们正在推行的结构性措施是正确的。
It's time to just get control of the process and dial down the temperature because the structural things that they are doing are correct.
这里有一些人违反了法律。
There are people here that broke the law.
这里有一些非法居留的罪犯。
There are criminals that are here illegally.
我们需要把他们移除，因为这是大多数人的意愿。
We need to remove them because that is the will of the majority.
现在我们只需要找到一种方法，让所有执法部门都有足够的操作空间，以阻止这些悲剧再次发生。
Now we just need to find a way of doing it that creates some freedom to operate for all of law enforcement so that these tragedies stop.
这就是我的看法。
That's my 2¢.
好的。
Okay.
弗里德伯格，你对此有什么评论吗？还是跳过？
Friedberg, would you like to comment on this or pass?
我来评论一下。
I'll comment.
你能对萨克的说法回应一下吗？
Can I just ask you to react to what Sack said?
你是否同意他的观点，即民主党人需要移除这些人，因为他们在人口普查中被计入，并会增加众议院的席位？
Do you agree or disagree with his point about the Democrats needing to remove people because they do count in the census and they increase the seats in the house?
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埃隆也多次谈到过这个问题，认为移民是为了增加选民名册。
Elon's talked about this a whole bunch as well that the immigration is being done to boost the voter rolls.
我对人口普查的具体情况了解不多，因为人口普查每多少年才进行一次，而且是否准确也值得怀疑。
I don't know enough about the census specifically because that occurs x number of years and if it's accurate at all.
所以我会暂且搁置这个问题，去查一些资料。
So I'll leave that aside and do some research on it.
就进口人口来获取选票而言，这种策略在逻辑上站不住脚，那么多工人阶级选民把特朗普推上台，尤其是许多拉丁裔、墨西哥裔现在也都在支持特朗普，因为他是个民粹主义者，能吸引这个群体。
In terms of importing people for votes, this strategy does not make a lot of logical sense, and so many working class people voted Trump into office and so many, specifically, Hispanic people, Mexican people are all voting for Trump now because he's a populist, and he he appeals to to that group.
所以，无论拜登和民主党是否真出于这个目的这么做，都是毫无道理的。
So whatever if Biden and the Democrats were doing that for that reason, that makes no sense.
而且，这些人必须先成为公民才能投票，而这个过程需要二三十年。
And, also, those people would have to become citizens in order to vote, and that's a twenty, thirty year process.
所以，如果他们真想通过这种方式操作，那是在玩一场极其漫长的博弈。
So, you know, they'd be playing an incredibly long game on that front.
除非投票过程中存在舞弊。
Unless there's cheating in the voting.
是的
Yeah.
对
Yeah.
我们在这里的遗产论坛也讨论过这一点。
And we've talked about that as well here Heritage Fair.
如果没有选民身份证的话。
If there's no voter ID.
你知道的。
You know?
你知道，遗产基金会，大卫，你好像曾经在那里工作过。
You know, the Heritage Foundation I think, David, you worked there at some point.
对吧？
Right?
做过实习。
Did an internship.
这个组织，这个智库，在这方面做了大量研究。
That organization, that think tank, has done tremendous research into this.
他们有一个数据库。
They have a database.
我认为他们已经收集了过去四十年间3000起选民舞弊案件。
I think they've collected now 3,000 cases of voter fraud over a forty year period.
所以，说选民舞弊能够左右总统大选结果这个说法完全是荒谬的，而且从未得到证实。
So, really, the whole concept of voter fraud being able to tilt a presidential election is just ridiculous and has not been proven.
我认为特朗普提了大约50到60起诉讼，但全都输了。
I think Trump filed about 50 or 60 lawsuits and lost all 50 of them.
所以这种说法毫无根据。
So there's there's no credence to that.
但你知道，我对咱们所看到的现象还有一些更广泛的看法。
But, you know, I I have a couple of thoughts broader on what we've seen.
实际上，大卫，我同意你的观点。
And I do actually agree with you, David.
everywhere都应该有选民身份证明。
There should be voter ID everywhere.
我认为任何人都不应该在没有驾照的情况下投票。
I I don't think anybody should be able to vote without a driver's license.
我们不能没有身份证明。
We can't or ID.
如果你连获取身份证明的时间都不愿花，凭什么让你投票？
If you can't take the time to get ID, why should you vote?
这没有太多道理。
It doesn't make a lot of sense.
对吧？
Right?
但是杰伊，为什么另一方这么极力反对呢？
Why do you think that's such a push on the other side though, Jay Kal?
没有身份证明的动机是什么？
Like, what's the motivation for not having IDs?
所宣称的
The stated
如果不是为了阻止那些没有资格投票的人投票呢？
If it's not about getting people to vote that aren't allowed to vote?
所宣称的理由，我不相信，是这样更民主，你们希望尽可能多的人投票。
The stated reason, which I don't believe, is that it's more democratic and you wanna get as many people to vote as possible.
所以，但我不同意这一点。
So but I don't agree with that.
我认为每个人都应该有身份证。
I think everybody should have ID.
是的。
Yeah.
比如，买啤酒你得有身份证。
Like, you gotta have an ID to buy a beer.
对吧？
Right?
所以，是的。
So Yeah.
我的意思是，坐飞机也好，甚至坐火车也好，你都需要身份证。
I mean, to get on a plane to I mean, even to ride a train, like, you you need an ID.
我不，我不
I don't I don't
我无法理解，我觉得答案不言自明。
understand, I think like the answer speaks for itself.
我的意思是，对我来说，这很明显。
I mean, to me, it's obvious.
顺便说一下，禁止投票时不用身份证的原因，并不是仅仅说你可以不带身份证投票。
The reason why you prohibit by the way, it's not just saying you can vote without an ID.
他们实际上是禁止投票站工作人员进行身份核查。
They actually prohibit the people administering the polls from checking.
这么做的原因只有一个。
There's only one reason to do that.
你显然是想允许作弊。
You want to allow cheating, obviously.
Doge发现的一件事是，有很多非法移民被添加到了社会保障体系中。
And one of the things that Doge found was that there were lots of illegal aliens being added to the social security rules.
他们不一定在领取社会保障金，但在许多州
Now they weren't necessarily collecting social security, but in a lot states
却在缴纳社保税，情况恰恰相反。
paying into it, so it's quite the opposite.
他们在缴纳税款。
They're paying into the taxes.
当你获得社会安全号码时，在许多州，你只需在申领驾照时勾选一个框，而驾照也会发给非法移民，以此被添加到选民名册上。
That when you get an SSN number, in a lot of states, all you have to do is check a box when you get a driver's license, which they also give to illegal aliens, in order to be added to the voter rolls.
因此，他们确实发现了选民名册上的非法移民。
So they are finding illegal aliens on voter rolls.
但不管你在选举舞弊问题上持什么立场，人口普查统计的都是总人口。
But look, regardless of where you are on cheating in elections, the census just counts total population.
然后他们根据总人口（包括非法移民）来分配众议院席位和选举人票。
And then they apportion house seats and electoral votes based on total population, including illegal aliens.
这方面的数据是存在的。
And there is data on this.
如果在2017年上一次选举前实施这些改变，特朗普本可以多获得九张选举人票。等等，先记下这一点。
Trump would have won the last election by an additional nine electoral votes if these changes had been made before the last election of seventeen twenty So hold on just to put a pin on that point.
这非常重要，因为它意味着未来的共和党候选人无需设法突破民主党在宾夕法尼亚、密歇根和威斯康星的蓝色壁垒。
It's really important because what it means is that a future Republican would not need to somehow crack the Democrats' blue wall of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.
对吧？
Right?
九张选举人票是一笔不小的数目，它让未来民主党候选人赢得总统职位变得更加困难。
So nine electoral votes is a lot, and it does put the presidency that much further out of reach for future Democratic candidates.
这提供了强大的激励。
It provides a powerful incentive.
而且再次强调，这不仅仅是选举人票的问题。
And it's again, it's not just the electoral votes.
这还涉及到众议院席位。
It's also these house seats.
加利福尼亚州会失去众议院席位。
California would have lost house seats.
我认为如果当时这样认定的话，大概是四个席位。
I think it was like four if this had been recognized.
因为同样，这里发生了大规模的人口迁移。
Because again, there's been a huge migration.
杰克，你比任何人都更清楚这一点，因为你就是那些离开的人之一。
Jake, how you know this better than anybody since you're one of the people who've left.
这个州管理得如此糟糕，以至于人们正大量逃离这些蓝州。
The state is so badly mismanaged that people have been fleeing blue states in droves.
而非法移民填补了这部分人口空缺，掩盖了这一影响，使这些蓝州得以维持其在众议院的代表席位。
And the fact that you've got illegal aliens then replacing that population masks that effect and allows these blue states to maintain their level of representation in the house.
这是一个巨大的激励。
Is a huge incentive.
弗里伯格，你支持ICE特工和国土安全部进入这些城市吗？
Freeburg, do you support the use of ICE agents, DHS, to go into these cities?
你认为他们的行动太过暴力了吗？
And do you think they were too violent?
你同意特朗普现在似乎正在撤回的这种策略吗？
And do you agree with that strategy that Trump's now it seems like pulling back?
我的意思是，我知道答案，因为我们私下已经讨论过了
I mean, I know the answer because we talked about it on private
聊天。
chat.
是的。
Yeah.
我会直截了当地说。
Like, I'll be very matter of fact.
对。
Yeah.
这两个人都不该死。
Neither of these people should be dead.
发生这样的事真令人难过。
It's sad that it happened.
该怪谁呢？
Who's to blame?
这两个人都不该做他们当时做的事。
Neither of these people should have been doing what they were doing.
联邦执法人员不应该戴面具。
Federal law enforcement agents should not wear masks.
当被要求时，他们应该表明自己的身份。
They should identify themselves when asked.
理想情况下，他们应该像地方执法人员一样佩戴执法记录仪。
Ideally, they wear body cams like local law enforcement does.
我喜欢执法记录仪。
I like body cams.
我其实喜欢在YouTube和TikTok上看警察佩戴执法记录仪的视频。
I actually like watching videos of police wearing body cams on YouTube and TikTok.
我认为这是让执法部门对其工作负责的一种非常重要的方式。
I think it's a very important way to hold law enforcement accountable to their work.
如果联邦执法人员在执行卧底任务等情况，可能有理由无法这样做。
There may be reasons why federal law enforcement can't do that if they're undercover and whatnot.
他们不应该被要求出示身份。
They shouldn't have to identify themselves.
但我认为这些是重要的基本准则。
But I think those are important ground rules.
我认为联邦执法人员应该有搜查令或合理怀疑。
I think that federal law enforcement should have warrant or probable cause.
他们不应该被允许随意要求人们出示证件。
They should not be allowed to randomly ask people for papers.
我不认同这一点。
I don't agree with that.
如果他们真的在这么做，我并不是说这就是我的观点，因为
If that's what they're doing, and I'm not saying that that's what I say since
不。
I No.
他们就是在这么做。
That's what they were doing.
这已经被证实了。
That's all been proven.
我不知道
I don't
这个。
know that.
我不知道这是否已被证实。
I don't know if that's been proven.
戴着面具，不表明身份。
Wearing masks, not identifying themselves.
那不是我在说的事。
That's not what I'm talking about.
等一下。
Hold on a second.
等一下。
Hold on a second.
有很多说法称，他们四处巡逻，抓人并要求出示身份证和文件。
There have been a lot of claims made that they're going around, quote, rounding people up asking for ID and papers.
我不知道这是否属实。
I don't know if that's true.
我个人并没有被说服。
I have personally not been convinced of that.
你可能看到了别的东西，但我并没有被说服。
You may have seen something else, but I've not been convinced of that.
但如果他们确实在这样做，而没有合理理由，也没有搜查令，那是不应该被允许的。
But if that is what they're doing, there is no probable cause and there's no warrant attached to that, that should not be allowed.
我认为解决这个问题的机制，首先是诉诸联邦法院并申请禁令，这目前正在通过法律程序积极进行。
I think the mechanism for fixing that, the mechanism for addressing that is number one, to go to federal courts and file injunctions, which is actively happening through the legal process.
随后会有一套正当程序，用以确定这些执法人员是否遵守法律、依法行事，还是没有。
And there's a due process that then would take place that would determine whether these agents are following the law and doing things by the rule of law or are not.
如果他们没有遵守，就会发出禁令，阻止他们继续这样的行为。
And if they're not, injunctions will be imposed and they can't do what they're doing.
除此之外，任何人都不应擅自阻挠执法部门，无论是联邦还是地方执法部门。
Short of that, no one should take it into their own hands to obstruct law enforcement, federal or local law enforcement.
我认为这是错误的。
I think that that is wrong.
我不认为那些对法律或执法人员行为有异议的个人，应该阻碍他们的行动。
I don't think that individuals that disagree with a law or disagree with the actions of law enforcement officers should obstruct their actions.
正确的途径首先是和平抗议，其次是诉诸法院申请禁令，第三是修改法律，去你的地方
The correct path is number one, to protest peacefully, number two, to go to the courts and file injunctions, and number three, to change the law, to go to your local
投票率。
Voting percent.
为某人改变法律。
For someone and change the law.
我认为抗议者不喜欢某项法律是完全正常的。
I think it's totally okay for protesters to not like the law.
有上百万条法律和法规，还有其他一堆东西，我从根本上不同意，但这些并不能赋予我物理上堵在车道上、用汽车阻挡执法部门执行公务的权利。
There's a million laws and regulations and other bull that I fundamentally disagree with, but those don't give me the right to impose myself physically in the driveway with a car blocking law enforcement from doing their job.
如果执法部门正在逮捕一名非非法移民的杀人犯，有人这么做，人们会大肆抗议吗？
If law enforcement was arresting a non illegal immigrant murderer and someone did that, would people be up in arms?
这是因为人们不同意这项法律。
It's because people disagree with the law.
如果你不同意这项法律，你就得去改变它，这没问题。
And if you disagree with the law, you've gotta change the law, and that's okay.
目前的情况是，根据法律，如果某人没有按照法律规定的移民程序来到这里，那么他们从技术上讲就是非法居留。
Now right now, it is the case that it is the law that if someone came here without going through the immigration process as defined by the law, then they are technically here illegally.
这就是法律。
That is the law.
就是这样。
That's what it is.
因此，关于如何执行这项法律，存在不同的方式、途径或观点，而这正是人们产生分歧的地方。
And so there is a course or a path or a point of view on how do you enforce that law, and that is what people are having disagreements over.
如果你不喜欢这些方法，那就申请禁令。
And, again, file injunctions if you don't like the methods.
如果你不喜欢这项法律，那就去改变它。
Change the law if you don't like the law.
就我个人对移民的看法而言，为了总结一下，我看不出我们如何能以一种人道且公正的方式，将那些在这里生活了一段时间、缴纳税款并为这个国家做出积极贡献的人驱逐出境。
My personal view on immigration, just so I can wrap this all up, I don't see how we're gonna do this in a humane and just way of removing people from this country who have been here for a period of time and have paid taxes and have been good contributors to this country.
我不知道该怎么做到这一点。
I don't know how you're gonna do it.
我不知道如果不引发内战，该如何实现。
I don't know how you're gonna do it without inciting a civil war.
因此，我认为妥协方案必须是：为那些在美国生活了一段时间、遵守其他法律、缴纳税款且未滥用本不应享受的公共福利的个人，提供一条获得永久居留权乃至公民身份的途径。
So I think the compromise has to be that there has to be a path to permanent residency and eventually citizenship for individuals who have been in The United States for some period of time, who have followed other laws, who have paid taxes, and who have not taken advantage of public services that they are not supposed to use.
在满足这些条件的情况下，应该提供一条途径，否则我们将面临内战。
With those conditions met, there should be some path, otherwise we're gonna have civil war.
我认为，与此分开的是，还有一个更重要的观点，雷·达利奥已经提出过，我再重述一遍，你们可能会对此翻白眼，但我认为这一切背后有着深刻的情感动因。
I think that separate to this, there's a bigger point to be made, and Ray Dalio has made this, I will restate it, and you guys can roll your eyes at this, but I think that there's a deep emotional driver to all of this.
人们看到这些就会被激起情绪。
People look at this and they get incited.
他们的情感被激活了。
They get activated emotionally.
我所接触的每个人，对这个问题都情绪激动，我们必须自问：为什么现在人们的情绪如此激动？
Everyone I speak to is activated emotionally over this issue, and we have to ask ourselves the important question of why are people activated so emotionally right now.
到底发生了什么？
What is going on?
这个问题的根本原因是什么？
What is the fundamental root cause of this?
雷·达利奥所提到的预测模型的根本原因是什么？他预测美国发生内战的概率为35%到40%，这一预测是他在2020年做出的。
What is the fundamental root cause of this prediction model that Ray Dalio has talked about saying that there's a thirty five to forty percent chance of a civil war in The United States based on predictions that he made in 2020.
这从根本上源于这样一个事实：每个人在某种程度上都感受到了某种压迫，而这种压迫感正是这种情绪的体现。
And it is rooted fundamentally in the fact that everyone to some degree feels some amount of oppression right now, and this is a manifestation of that oppressed feeling.
这种压迫来自于世界飞速前进，而人们却未能参与其中，他们感觉自己被抛在了后面，看到这个世界中的受害者，便想要采取行动。
That oppression comes from the fact that the world is racing ahead and people are not a part of it, that people feel like they're being left behind, and they see victims of that world and they wanna act.
我认为我们必须关注并充分意识到这一点，因为从根本上说，如果我们不承认、不解决这个问题，也不寻找一些妥协的途径来应对这些难题，内战将是不可避免的。
And I think we need to pay attention to that and be very cognizant of it because I think fundamentally, it is an inevitability that there will be a civil war if we don't recognize it and address it and find some paths of compromise to solve these problems.
好的。
Okay.
我说完了。
I'm done.
太棒了。
Superb.
所以，Ship
So Ship
把它发布吧，这一集结束了。
it ship it episode done.
我的意思是，我们回家吧。
I mean, let's go home.
是的，我强烈同意你的观点。
So, yeah, I'm strongly in agreement with you.
警察不应该受到干涉。
The police should not be interfered with.
我在这里说过，也在推特上说过。
I said that here, and I said it on Twitter.
如果你不能和平抗议，就应该待在家里。
You should stay home if you can't peacefully protest.
我也强烈同意你的观点：警察应该接受非暴力化解训练，佩戴执法记录仪，不要戴面具，接受适当培训，诸如此类。
And also agree with you strongly, the police, should be trained to deescalate, wear body cameras, not wear a mask, be trained properly, all that stuff.
但我想在这里提出三点。
But I I wanna make three points here.
第一点是，你知道，特朗普总统身边围绕着许多非常能干的人，包括你本人，大卫·鲁比奥、贝森特、卢特尼克、库什纳。
And the first is, you know, president Trump has surrounded himself with a lot of really competent people, yourself included, David Rubio, Bessent, Lutnick, Kushner.
我们这里有很多这样的人，甚至我的朋友克里斯·赖特也是。
We had a lot of them here, even, my pal, Chris Wright.
但他还任命了一群缺乏经验、能力不足的人，这些人完全是基于对他的忠诚而被选中的。
But he's also surrounded himself with very inexperienced sick offense, that he picked based on their loyalty to him.
这个团队必须离开，因为他们正在毁掉他的第二个任期。
And that group needs to go because that group is sinking his second term.
我会把斯蒂芬·米勒、克里斯蒂·诺姆、卡什·帕特尔和帕姆·邦迪列在这个名单上。
I'll put on that list Stephen Miller, Christy Noam, Kash Patel, and Pam Bondi.
这些人对特朗普来说是一场灾难。
These folks have been a disaster for Trump.
他们根本不具备担任所处职位的资格，而且制造了大量混乱。
They're not qualified to be in the positions they're in, and they have caused a lot of chaos.
早在八月份，我就详细解释过这些移民执法行动有多么不受欢迎。
And back in August, I explained exactly how unpopular these, you know, ICE actions were.
我当时恳请大家，听我说。
And I implored people, hey.
如果你无法保持平静，就待在家里。
Stay home if you cannot be peaceful.
如果你想录下别人，那没问题。
If you wanna record people, that's fine.
但我还预测过，会有人丧命，这些特工根本没有接受过训练。
But I predicted as well that somebody's gonna get killed and that these agents were acting just without training.
他们没有尝试缓和局势，反而在加剧冲突，我认为这正是斯蒂芬·米勒的意图——故意激化这些反应。
They were not deescalating, and they were in fact provoking a lot of this, which I think was part of the concept that Stephen Miller had, was to provoke these kind of reactions.
尼克，你把我的第一张图表调出来。
Nick, you can pull up my first chart.
还记得去年十月吗？当时我提到特朗普的支持率正在下滑，正是这些移民执法行动引发的争议期间。
Remember back in October, I was talking about Trump's sinking approval rating back when these ICE issues were happening.
埃普斯坦的文件没有被公开。
The Epstein files weren't being released.
到了十一月，我又提了一次这件事。
Then in November, I brought this up again.
特朗普的净支持率降至13%。
Trump's net approval rating hit 13%.
现在同一张图表又出现了。
And then same chart coming up now.
他的支持率是负18%。
He's negative 18%.
很多人喜欢用‘taco’这个词，你知道的。
What's and, you know, a lot of people like to use this term taco.
特朗普总是退缩，总是胆怯。
Trump always chicken out chickens out.
我不喜欢别人这么用，因为我觉得他们是在故意激怒他。
I don't like when people use that because I think they're trying to goad him on.
我觉得他需要对这些急剧下滑的支持率做出反应。
I think he needs to react to these plummeting ratings here.
尼克，你能播放一下蒂利斯的那段话吗？
If you could play the Tillis quote, Nick.
如果我是她，我想不出过去一年里有什么值得骄傲的地方。
If I were in her position, I can't think of any point of pride over the last year.
她必须自己做决定，或者总统来做决定，但她已经把整个政府在我们本应主导的问题上拖垮了。
She's gotta make her own decision or the president does, but she has taken this administration into the ground on an issue that we should own.
我们本应主导边境安全和移民问题，但他们却让共和党在这件事上彻底失败了。
We should own the issue of border security and immigration, but they have destroyed that for Republicans.
这项曾帮助总统当选的议题，他们却因无能而毁掉了。
Something that got the president elected, they have destroyed it through their incompetence.
戴维·米勒也处于同样的境地。
David Miller is in the same boat.
这个家伙在发表关于格陵兰的愚蠢言论，让总统陷入困境之后，又公开宣称此人是恐怖分子，甚至在还没与任何实地人员交谈之前就下了定论，而如今显然并非如此。
This guy, after doing the stupid comments he made about Greenland getting the president in a difficult circumstance is one of the people that came out publicly and said that this guy was a terrorist before he had even talked with anybody on the ground, and that's clearly not the case now.
所以，我
So, I
我的意思是，斯蒂芬·米勒从没让我对他的无能失望过。
mean, it's just mean, Stephen Miller never fails to live up to my expectations of incompetence.
这是穆尔科斯基，持有类似观点的另一位共和党参议员，
And here's Murkowski, with a similar opinion, another Republican Senator,
你对克里斯汀·诺姆担任国土安全部部长有信心吗？
do you have faith in Christine Noem as DHS secretary?
我已经就此事发表过声明了。
I I've already made a statement on that.
哦，我当时没在场吗？
Oh, I I wasn't there for it?
是的。
Yeah.
我说过，我已经对她失去信心了。
I I said that I've lost confidence in her.
你觉得
Do you think
特朗普总统应该将她撤职吗？
that president Trump should remove her from the position?
你认为她应该辞职吗？
Do you think she should resign?
显然，是对总统而言。
Obviously, to the president.
我认为在当时，我们需要更有领导力的人来更好地服务公众。
I think we would be we would be better served with more leadership at the time.
在
At the
总而言之，
end of the day,
美国人不喜欢看到这种暴力行为。
Americans don't like to see this violence.
他们不喜欢残忍。
They don't like cruelty.
他们不喜欢混乱。
They don't like chaos.
特朗普输给拜登的原因，尽管拜登并不是一个非常强势的候选人，是因为上次移民禁令引发的普遍混乱。
The reason Trump lost to Biden, who's not a very strong candidate, is because of the general chaos people felt with the immigrant ban the last time.
人们确实希望看到边境关闭，这我认为对国家产生了巨大影响。
And people do want to see the border closed, and that has had a great effect, I think, on the country.
我觉得这太棒了，他应该为此好好庆祝一番。
And I think that's fantastic, and he should take a victory lap for that.
但领导力要从顶层开始。
But leadership starts at the top.
特朗普总统把斯蒂芬·米勒任命为这一切的负责人。
President Trump put Stephen Miller in charge of all this.
我认为他是个不良分子。
I think he's a bad actor.
我认为他聘用的这些人，完全是为打法律战、实施这种残忍暴力行为而选的，目的是取悦那些不会让特朗普连任的MAGA支持者，反而会让他在中期选举中失利。
I think these people who he hired were picked strictly to do lawfare and to do this kind of sadistic, violent behavior to feed a MAGA base that's not going to keep Trump in office, and in fact, it's gonna cause him to lose the second to lose the midterms.
所以，一个简单的解决方案——我在这里一再提到——就是，如果你真想阻止人们进入这个国家，你就得弄清楚他们为什么来这里。
So the easy solution, which I brought up here over and over again, is if you want to stop having people come into this country, you have to look at why they're coming to this country.
他们来到这个国家是因为想过上更好的生活。
They're coming to this country because they wanna have a better life.
这就是他们来这里的原因。
That's why they're coming here.
因此，他们愿意支付给偷渡贩1万、2万甚至3万美元，并冒着生命危险穿越边境——许多人在这过程中丧生、遭受虐待。
And that's why they'll pay a coyote 10 or 20 or $30,000 and risk their own safety coming across that border where many people die and abused and are abused.
所以，如果你想阻止这种情况，你只需要去找那些雇主。
So if you want to stop this, all you have to do is go to the business owners and find them.
如果他们继续雇佣非法移民，你就不断找到他们，并把他们关进监狱。
And if they keep hiring illegal aliens, you keep finding them and you put them in jail.
但你从没见过斯蒂芬·米勒这么做。
But you don't see Stephen Miller doing that.
为什么？
Why?
因为很多这样的企业主正是把特朗普送上台的选民。
Well, because a lot of those businesses are the voters who put Trump in office.
他们是共和党人。
They're Republicans.
当然，也有民主党人拥有的企业主。
Now, you know, sure there's Democrat owned business owners as well.
但你根本不需要派遣大量特工去殴打、暴力对待这些人，引发这样的反应，这并不能为那些开车冲撞警察的人开脱。
But you could solve this whole problem without sending massed agents in to beat the shit out of people, to be violent, to provoke these kind of reactions, and that doesn't absolve people driving their cars into the police.
这太可怕了，是一场巨大的悲剧。
That's horrible and it's a terrible tragedy.
正如我已说过三四次，这些人不应该上街抗议。
And these people, as I've said three or four times, should not go out and protest.
但这个问题其实是可以解决的。
But you could solve this.
如果非法移民没有工作机会，他们就不会再来了。
If there are no job opportunities for illegal aliens, they will stop coming here.
最后，弗里德伯格，我强烈同意你的观点，我们应该对那些在这里生活了十年、二十年并缴纳税款的人保持同情。
Finally, I agree with your point strongly, Friedberg, that we should be compassionate to the people who've been here ten, twenty years and paid their taxes.
我在这里已经说过很多次了。
I've said this here many times.
他们应该被给予一条出路。
They should be given a path.
美国是一个由移民建立、为移民而存在的国家，包括你们三位，我最好的移民朋友们。
America is a country built by immigrants, for immigrants, including the three of you, my bestie immigrants.
我们所有人都是非法来到这里的。
And we all came here illegally.
我们的父母是非法入境的，而我们并没有主动进入这个国家。
Our our parents did, and we didn't seek into the country.
是的。
Yeah.
当然。
Absolutely.
你刚才说了一大通。
You kinda gave this diatribe.
我不明白你为什么把斯蒂芬·米勒当作你憎恨的对象。
I don't know why you've picked Stephen Miller as the vessel of your hatred.
这就像你……
It's like you've
不。
No.
这不是憎恨。
It's not hatred.
我是根据他的行为做出判断的。
I based on his actions.
投射。
Transference.
你把对……的负面情绪投射到了他人身上。
There's been a transference of your
纯粹是基于他的行为。
just based on his actions.
TDS，也就是史蒂文·米勒妄想综合征，或者
TDS to Steven Miller derangement syndrome or
如果他的行为是善良且富有同情心的——如果他对移民表现出关怀，认识到移民对美国故事的重要性，那我完全没问题。
If something like if if actions were if his actions were kind and compassion That's That's an If if if if his if he was compassionate towards immigrants and recognized the importance of immigrants to this American story, I would be fine with it.
我只是基于他的行为，大卫。
It's just based on his behavior, David.
我没有TDS。
I don't have TDS.
你想怎么骂都行。
You can name call all you want.
我只是基于
I'm just basing
你的行为，你已经决定对他进行人身攻击。
it on your behavior on this You've decided to do this ad hominem against him.
而且你看，从大局来看，我只是在进行人身攻击。
And look, the big picture is that I'm just hominem.
我是说
I'm it
我基于他们的资格来判断。
on their I'm basing it on their qualifications.
你并没有提供证据。
You're not presenting you're not really presenting evidence.
你只是在展示别人的想法。
You're showing what other people think.
你展示的是民调和一些参议员的看法。
You're showing polling and then what's a few senators think.
所以，你本质上是在试图构建一个论点，等一下。
So basically, you're trying to build a case hold on.
你等一下。
You're hold on.
让我把话说完。
Let me finish my point.
你基本上是通过引用他人的观点和声明来构建针对他的指控，而不是真正地提供证据并建立案例，仅仅只是贴标签说他缺乏同情心。
You're basically trying to build a case against him by using the opinions and declarations of other people rather than actually presenting evidence and building that case other than just a name call and say that he's not compassionate.
从大局来看，我认为在过去几年里，斯蒂芬·米勒对移民问题的看法比你更正确。
The big picture is that I would say that Stephen Miller's been more correct about immigration than you have been over the last several years.
多年来，你一直否认我们存在边境开放的问题，对吧？
For years, you were denying that we had an open border problem, did you not?
没有。
No.
没有。
No.
有一年当人数激增时，我说让我们先获取数据，因为每年增长三倍似乎不合常理。
For one year when the spike went up, I said let's get the data on this because it doesn't make sense that it would triple year over year.
后来我们发现事实确实如此，基于新信息，我改变了看法，说对。
And then we found out that it was in fact, and with the new information, I changed my opinion and said, yeah.
这显然正在发生。
This is obviously happening.
这正是实际发生的情况。
That was literally what happened.
嗯，我不知道。
Well, I don't know.
我的意思是，在Vine时代，我记得我们为此有过很多辩论，而你当时说
I mean, during the Vine years, I remember we had a bunch of debates about this, and you were saying
当时所有的一切就是，让我们看看数据，因为如果你看的话，我多次在节目中展示过这个图表。
that all the was, let's see the data because the data if you look I I I played this chart on the pockets many times.
我们展示了过去四年的情况，然后出现了一个激增。
We showed, like, the last four years, and then there was a spike.
我说，这完全说不通。
And I said, this doesn't make any sense.
这个激增是怎么发生的？
How did this spike happen?
这只是我的观点。
It's just my opinion.
你不必非得一致，你可以有不同意见。
You don't have to have a you you can have a difference of opinion.
让我回到明尼苏达州混乱的根源。
Let me go back to the origin of the chaos in Minnesota.
你不会在其他州看到这种情况发生，我只是想指出其中一个主要原因。
You don't see this happening in other states, and I just wanna point out one of the major reasons why.
在其他州，随便挑一个。
So in other states, you know, take your pick.
当一个非法移民被逮捕时，他们会移交给了移民与海关执法局或边境巡逻队进行驱逐。
When you have an illegal alien and they get arrested, they get handed over to ICE or Border Patrol for deportation.
这就是正在发生的事。
That's what's happening.
在明尼苏达州，政客们下达了指令，禁止这样做。
In Minnesota, the politicians have given an instruction not to do that.
所以，实际上，你面对的是那些被逮捕的罪犯。
So literally, you have criminals, people who've been arrested.
今天刚公布了一起案例，一名非法移民在明尼阿波利斯酒后驾车，接连撞死一名无辜母亲，并严重伤害了另外两人。
There was a case that was just posted today of an illegal alien in Minneapolis who killed an innocent mother and severely injured two others back to back in drunk driving crashes.
他没有有效的驾驶执照，也没有购买保险。
He did not have a valid driver's license, did not have insurance.
他因车辆肇事致人死亡而被逮捕。
He was arrested for vehicular homicide.
移民与海关执法局要求将他移交给他们，但明尼阿波利斯的当局拒绝了这一要求。
ICE asked him to be turned over to them, and the authorities in Minneapolis refused to do that.
最终，他们将他释放了。
And they eventually released him.
这迫使移民与海关执法局不得不外出寻找这些人并实施逮捕。
So that puts ICE in the position of having to go out and find these guys and arrest them.
所有的这些行动就是这样开始的。
That's how all of these operations started.
你却把这些人描绘成盖世太保，好像他们随意抓人一样。
And you make it sound like these guys are the Gestapo and they just randomly round people up.
这不是正在发生的情况。
That's not what's happening.
他们有逮捕令，上面列出了具体要抓捕的人名。
They have arrest warrants with the names of specific people That is that they're going after.
确实有逮捕令，但斯蒂芬·米勒也命令他们去特定地点随意抓捕人员。
There are arrest warrants, but there were also Stephen Miller told them to just go round people up at specific locations.
这种情况确实也存在。
There is that as well.
他们一直在努力
And they've been trying
去达成那些根本不可能完成的指标。
to hit numbers that they just can't possibly hit.
你得问问自己，为什么——你得想想，萨克斯。
You have to ask yourself, why we have you have to ask yourself, think, Sacks.
为什么在奥巴马执政期间，他做的更多，却没有这种暴力行为和未标识人员侵犯人权的情况？
Why didn't we have this kind of violence and unmarked people breaking people's rights under Obama who did far more?
为什么。
Why.
你想知道为什么吗？
You wanna know why?
因为奥巴马说我们应该驱逐。
Because Obama said that we should deport.
最终，我们的国家和所有国家一样，有权也有义务
Ultimately, our nation, like all nations, has the right and obligation
控制其边境并制定居留和公民身份的法律。
to control its borders and set laws for residency and citizenship.
无论他们多么善良，
And no matter how decent they are,
无论出于何种原因，这1100万违反了这些法律的人都应该承担责任。
no matter their reasons, the 11,000,000 who broke these laws should be held accountable.
我说的是，他能够在不派遣大量特工去殴打的情况下做到这一点。
I'm saying he was able to do it without sending massed agents in to beat the No.
民主党改变了。
The Democratic
发生了变化。
Party changed.
就是这样。
That's what happened.
十五年前，立场是不。
Fifteen years ago, the position No.
但为什么
But why
奥巴马
that Obama
我可以发言吗？
can I talk point?
警察，为什么警察
The police Why the police
为什么奥巴马执政时没有发生这种情况？
Why didn't this happen under Obama?
让我告诉你原因
Let me tell you the reason why
执法发生在十五年前，当时
policing happened Fifteen when this
十五年前，民主党还相对理性，这个问题上，支持遣返非法移民、不实行开放边境基本上是两党共识。
years ago, the Democrat party was still somewhat rational, this issue, and it was basically a bipartisan position to support deportations of illegal aliens and not to have an open border.
民主党在这个问题上的立场发生了变化。
The Democrat party changed their point of view on this issue.
现在我说的不是这个。
Now That's not what I'm talking about.
你在谈执法问题。
You're talking about policing.
让我
Let me
让我把话说完。
finish my point.
汤姆·霍曼一再表示，我们不想上街巡逻。
Tom Homan has said over and over again, we don't wanna go out on the street.
这太危险了。
It's dangerous.
他们不想被置于这种境地。
They don't wanna be put in this position.
移民与海关执法局的工作极其危险。
ICE has an incredibly dangerous job to do.
边境巡逻队的工作也极其危险。
Border Patrol has an incredibly dangerous job to do.
顺便说一下，他们戴口罩的原因是，这些组织通过Signal相互协调，对他们进行人肉搜索，并跟踪他们的行踪。
By the way, the reason why they wear masks is because they're getting doxxed by these groups who are organizing with each other on signal, and they're being followed around.
他们正被人跟踪。
They're being stalked.
他们被追到酒店，这些人还跟踪他们。
They're being chased to their hotels, And these guys follow them around.
他们用车辆堵住他们的车。
They block their cars by interposing vehicles.
他们干扰了官方行动。
They're interfering in official operations.
他们干扰了其他事务，并与他们发生肢体冲突。
They're interfering with the rest, and they're getting in physical altercations with them.
这对移民与海关执法局来说非常危险。
This is very dangerous for ICE.
他们不想处于这种境地。
They don't wanna be in this position.
但所有这些事情发生的原因是，蒂姆·沃尔兹、雅各布·弗莱以及这些其他人——副州长——都在说不要配合移民与海关执法局。
But the reason why all of this is happening is because Tim Walz and Jacob Fry and the rest of these guys, the lieutenant governor, they are saying do not cooperate with ICE.
不要配合边境巡逻队，告诉明尼苏达州的当地执法部门，一旦逮捕了非法移民，就不要将他们移交移民与海关执法局。
Do not cooperate with the border patrol, telling local authorities in Minnesota when you arrest an illegal alien, do not turn them over to ICE.
放了他们更好。
It's better to release them.
这些人对ICE如此敌视，宁愿把杀手放上街头，也不愿把他们关在监狱里以便移交给了ICE。
These people are such anti ICE zealots that they would rather release a killer onto the street than keep them in jail where they can be turned over to ICE.
他们不想把他们关在监狱里的根本原因，是因为那样会形成一个集中点，让ICE可以去收押这些非法移民。
And that's the whole reason why they don't wanna keep them in jail is because that would create a central repository, if you will, for ICE to go collect all these illegal aliens.
去年，大约有470名罪犯，也就是非法移民、罪犯。
Last year, there was something like 470 convicts, okay, illegal aliens, criminals.
我说的不是他们入境时的违法行为，而是他们在明尼苏达州被释放后所犯下的后续罪行，导致ICE无法将他们全部抓捕并驱逐。
And I'm not talking about that their crime wasn't breaking into the country, I'm talking about subsequent crimes that were released in Minnesota so they they cannot be rounded up by ICE and deported.
这些人都是狂热分子。
These people are zealots.
这就是问题的根源。
And that is the source of the problem.
更糟糕的是，像蒂姆·沃尔兹和副州长这样的人还在散布言论，把只是在履行职责的ICE和边境巡逻人员称为盖世太保和纳粹，煽动民众情绪。
And then on top of that, you've got rhetoric by people like Tim Walz and the lieutenant governor calling ICE and border patrol agents who are just trying to do their jobs the Gestapo and Nazis and riling people up.
我认为像亚历克斯·普雷蒂或丽娜·古德这样的人，是这种言论的受害者。
And I think that people like Alex Pretty or Renee Goode, they're victims of this type of rhetoric.
这些是身处左翼回音室中的左翼激进分子，他们不断吸收着将执法官员描绘成纳粹的言论，以至于他们被激怒，充满愤怒。
These are left wing activists who are in this left wing echo chamber and they're barrenading in all this rhetoric that's portraying law enforcement officials as Nazis, and they're imbibing this constantly to the point where they're full of rage and anger.
你看过亚历克斯·普雷蒂袭击边境巡逻人员的视频吗？
You see that video of Alex Pretty attacking border patrol.
这发生在他在两周前被杀之前。
This is two weeks before he gets killed.
他在踢那辆车。
He's kicking the car.
他气得口吐白沫。
He's like foaming at the mouth.
他处于某种狂怒状态。
He's in some sort of rage.
这是一个情绪不稳定的人。
This is someone who's emotionally disturbed.
他腰上别着一把枪，要知道，每个持枪者都清楚，如果你随身携带武器，又在与执法人员打交道时，必须格外小心。
And he's got a a gun on his waistband, which look, every gun owner knows that you have to be exceedingly careful if you are carrying a weapon and then you are dealing with law enforcement.
你最不该做的就是主动去找他们惹事，而这正是他所做的。
The last thing you wanna do is go out looking for an altercation with them, which is what he did.
顺便说一句，我认为他们两人被杀这件事完全是一场悲剧。
And by the way, I think it's completely tragic that the two of them were killed.
我不希望看到这样的事情发生。
I don't wanna see that happen.
但再说一遍，他们是这种政治环境的受害者，是明尼苏达州民选官员煽动起来的这种混乱的牺牲品。
But again, they are victims of this political environment, this chaos that's being whipped up by the elected officials in Minnesota.
如果他们只是把手中非法移民移交给了移民与海关执法局和边境巡逻队，这种事情根本不会发生——而他们要求的正是这个。
This would not be happening if they simply turned over the illegal aliens in their custody to ICE and Border Patrol, which is all that they're asking for.
我在这档播客里说过很多次了，但你们没人回应过。
I've said on this podcast, like, many times, but none of you will respond to it.
他们为什么不做罚款处理，反而要这么做？
Why are they doing this instead of just fining the business owners?
这难道不是更好的政策吗？
Wouldn't that be a better policy?
而且你身在白宫。
And you're in the White House.
你身边都是这些人。
You're around these people.
你为什么不告诉他们，我们为什么不这么做？
Why don't you tell them why don't we do that?
我们为什么不直接对雇佣非法劳工的雇主处以罚款，从而消除他们来这里的动力？
Why don't we just give fines to business owners who hire illegals and stop the incentive to come here?
你怎么知道他们雇佣了非法劳工？
How do you know that they hired illegals?
你凭什么知道这一点？
How would you know that?
如果你知道，那你就应该知道
And if you know that, then you then you know
这些个人。
the individuals.
非常简单。
Super simple.
你只需要去做一点调查。
You would just go do a little investigation.
你去洗车行。
You go to the car wash.
就像任何其他侦探、联邦特工或地方警察那样，拍下视频，然后追踪这些人。
You videotape it like any other detective or any other federal agent or a local police officer would, and then you track those people down.
你悄悄地在回家路上抓一两个他们。
You very quietly go pick one or two of them up on the way home.
你要求他们出示证件，或者去问老板，嘿。
You ask them for their papers, or you go to the owner and say, hey.
我们有这六个人。
We have these six people.
这是他们的照片。
Here's their pictures.
这是这六个人的照片。
Here's the pictures of the six people.
让我们看看他们的证件。
Show us their papers.
让我们看看他们的社会保障号。
Show us their Social Security number.
你只需要做这些，弗里德伯格。
That's all you have to do, Friedberg.
这是我的建议。
Here here's my here's my my proposal.
这是
Here's
看。
Look.
J.
J.
科特，你那里可能有道理，J。
Cout, you may have a point there, J.
科特。
Cout.
你可能有道理，但我对一个已经在这个国家犯罪的非法移民来说，不确定这个理由是否足够充分。
You may have a point, but I'm not sure that it's good enough in the case of an illegal alien who's already been in this country committing crimes.
明白吗？
Okay?
是的。
Yeah.
我的意思是，
I mean,
不会很快。
won't real fast.
等一下。
Hold on.
如果你
If you
有
have a
一个因酒驾致人死亡的醉驾司机，一旦被抓获，我认为应该立即移交并驱逐出境。
drunk driver who has killed people through drunk driving and they're they're captured, I think it should be turned over and deported immediately.
如果你
If you
想做
want to do
要大规模行动，比如大规模行动，你完全可以去一个农场。
big numbers, like big numbers, you could just go to a farm.
你可以去一个洗车店。
You could go to a car wash.
你可以去一家餐厅。
You could go to a restaurant.
你拍下所有上下班的人的照片。
You take pictures of everybody coming in and out for their shift.
你去找老板，说：我们发现了这些人。
You go to the business owner and say, we have these people.
你能给我们看看他们的工资单和工资条吗？
They can you show us their paychecks and their pay stubs?
好的。
Alright.
所以我们在一些问题上持不同意见，但我们都同意这是一场悲剧，需要领导层来平息这些事态。
So we'll agree to disagree on some of this, and we'll agree that this is a tragedy and that we need leadership to calm these things down.
我们需要达成一项非常合理的移民政策，而目前的政策在我看来并不合理。
And we need to agree on a very reasonable immigration policy, which is not what we have right now, in my opinion.
好的。
Alright.
Claude Bot 一夜之间走红了。
Claude Bot has gone viral overnight.
我被 Claude 攻击了。
I have been Claude shotted.
我成了一个 Claude。
I have been one Claude.
我完全投入进去了。
I am all in on this.
这是一个由一位名叫彼得·施泰因贝格的绅士创建的开源项目。
This is an open source project created by a gentleman named Peter Steinberger.
他是一位奥地利开发者和企业家。
He's an Austrian developer and entrepreneur.
那么它是什么？
So what is it?
它基本上是一个开源的个人助手。
It's basically an open source personal assistant.
想象一下像Siri或者贾维斯那样的助手。
Think like Siri or maybe Jarvis.
你们有人用过吗？
Have any of you guys used it yet?
有人已经安装了吗？
Has anybody installed it yet?
我安装了。
I did.
我花了十五分钟，就为我的汽车保险省了15%。
I spent fifteen minutes, and I saved 15% on my car insurance.
你在开玩笑吧？
Are you joking?
你确定吗？
You're sure.
你安装了它，然后让它去帮你
You installed it and then asked it to go You
你知道吗，尼克，这有什么好笑的？
you know what's so funny, Nick?
我发了这个。
I posted this.
那些没明白这是个笑话的人真多。
The number of people that didn't understand that that was a joke.
没有。
No.
我明白这是个笑话。
I understand it's a joke.
对。
Yeah.
我知道你懂。
I know you Yeah.
对。
Yeah.
但那里
But there
有一群人说：真的吗？
was a bunch of people that were like, really?
你是怎么做到的？
How did you do it?
我能做吗？
Can I do it?
还有一些人说：等等。
And then some people were like, wait.
只有15%？
Only 15%?
还有其他人说：等等。
And other people were like, wait.
是你自己设的局？
You set it up yourself?
你没有找人帮忙吗？
You didn't have somebody help you?
天啊。
Gosh.
完全是了不起的人。
Totally the great people.
这简直是史上最棒的东西。
This literally the greatest thing ever.
你已经安装了吗，弗里德伯格？
Have you installed it yet, Friedberg?
没有。
No.
我不想给
I don't wanna give
好吧。
Okay.
一个开源工具，可以访问我所有的电子邮件和
An open source tool access to all my emails and
消息系统装好了吗？
messaging done it yet?
没有。
No.
因为我担心安全问题，但我想做，又担心安全问题。
Because I'm concerned about the security issues, but I want I wanna do it, but I'm concerned about the security.
我花了过去72小时做这件事。
I've spent the last seventy two hours doing this.
我来给你解释一下我们公司在做什么。
I'm gonna explain to you what we did at the company.
这太惊人了。
It's mind blowing.
好的。
Okay.
所以这基本上就像一个开源的Siri或J.A.R.V.I.S.
So it is basically think like an open source Siri or Jarvis.
对吧？
Right?
你进入一个界面，可以和一个虚拟助手对话，它会为你做事，就像ChatGPT或XAI那样。
You get into an interface and you can talk to a virtual assistant and it does things for you just like ChatGPT or XAI might.
但它的运作方式是，如果你知道什么是虚拟机的话，你可以加载一个虚拟机，或者把它安装在你的Mac Mini上。
But the way it works is you kinda load a virtual machine if you know what that is, or you can put it on your Mac Mini.
你把它当作服务器运行，然后开始用你的各种服务进行身份验证。
You run this like a server, then you will start authenticating it with your services.
比如Gmail、Notion、Slack、WhatsApp，甚至你的密码管理器。
So Gmail, Notion, Slack, WhatsApp, maybe even your password manager.
非常危险。
Super dangerous.
像Claude、XAI或微软这样的公司绝不会允许你这样做，因为这太危险了，显而易见。
Nobody like Claude or XAI or Microsoft would ever allow you to do this because it's so dangerous, obviously.
但我们做到了，并且让它投入了使用。
But we did this, and we put it to work.
我们是这么做的。
Here's what we did.
我创建了一个虚拟播客制作人，设定了这个角色，还新建了一个Gmail账户Sax、一个Notion账户、一个WhatsApp账户，所有都新建了。
I created a virtual podcast producer, and we made this persona, and we created a new Gmail account, Sax, a new Notion account, a new WhatsApp account, everything.
我们创建了一个基本上相当于虚拟员工的东西。
We created, like, basically, a virtual employee.
我们把它整合起来，让它成为我新推出的《本周AI》播客的制作人。
We put it together, and we made it the producer for my new This Week in AI podcast.
里面还顺带为它做了一个小推广。
There's a little plug in there for it.
所以我们让它开始研究嘉宾信息。
So we had it start doing research on guests.
于是我们就说，嘿。
So we said, hey.
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