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大家都想进入这些私募市场。
Everybody wants access to these private markets.
接下来，我们请凯莉·罗德里格斯来为大家详细讲解。
Right now to discuss all of this is Kelly Rodriques.
他是Forge公司的首席执行官。
He's the Forge CEO.
我们展望的未来是，私募市场向所有美国及全球投资者开放。
We see a world where the private market opens up and is accessible to any US and global investor.
目前这个私募人工智能投资组合里有19家公司。
There's 19 companies in the private market AI basket.
这些公司的平均增长率达到了300%。
These companies have grown on average 300%.
让我们欢迎阿特里德斯公司的管理合伙人兼首席投资官加文·贝克。
Please join us in welcoming Gavin Baker, managing partner and CIO of Atreides.
人工智能的投资回报率，从数据和事实来看，已经明确可行。
The ROI on AI has empirically, factually, unambiguously been possible.
投资就是寻找真相。
Investing is the search for truth.
我们欢迎布拉德·格斯特纳。
We welcome in Brad Gerstner.
很高兴能和大家在一起。
It's good to be
继续和大家聊。
back with you.
你有一个叫‘投资美国’的项目。
You have a program called Invest American.
现在正是一个历史性的时刻，能让每个人都参与到资本主义中来。
I think we have a historic moment right now to get everybody into the game of capitalism.
我们准备了几张布拉德的幻灯片来开场。
We have a few slides from Brad to kick this off.
你知道，咱们
You know, let's
时候到了。
times.
就像以前那样。
Like old times.
这个论坛开始前，我其实一直在后台。
This this panel, I actually was backstage.
我跟加文说：你知道我们今天要聊二级市场吗？
I said, Gavin, do you know we're talking about secondaries?
他反问我：你什么意思？
He's like, what do you mean?
我就说：好吧。
And I said, okay.
那我来给大家简单介绍一下背景。
So here, let's just set this up for everybody.
现场坐满了资产管理方，大家都在寻找回报分配。
The room's full of people who are allocators, people are looking for distributions.
所以过去十年里，二级市场的情况就是这样。
So this is secondary markets over the course of the last decade.
这是每年投入风险投资的资金，以及每年从风险投资中退出的资金。
This is the amount of money going into VC each year, the amount of money coming out of VC each year.
红线代表了这两者之间的净差额。
The red line represents the net effect of that.
查马斯，我们现在大概已经进入第五年了。
Chamath, we're in like five years.
对吧？
Right?
这时候，投入的资金远远超过退出的资金。
Where a lot more is going in than it's coming out.
但二级市场的交易量却创下了新高。
But the secondary market is at record volume.
所以，这些公司，我管它们叫准上市公司。
So this is, you know, I call these companies quasi public companies.
这些是后期阶段的公司。
These are these later stage companies.
每天都有大量的买卖在进行。
There's buying and selling that's going on every day.
你看这个，杰森。
Look at that, Jason.
比起2021年的峰值，我们当时觉得那已经够疯狂了。
Relative to the '21 peak, we thought that was crazy.
到了2021年底，现在的二级市场交易量已经是那时的两倍了。
At the end of twenty one, we're double that now in terms of secondary transactions.
这是员工二级市场交易的规模。
This is the amount of employee secondary.
现在有人在买入安多里尔、Anthropic、SpaceX这些公司，到2025年，投资这些二级市场交易的金额占到了风险投资总额的31%。
So this is people buying into Andoril, Anthropic, SpaceX, now represents 31% of all primary venture activity is buying into these secondaries in 2025.
二级市场现在已经成为这些公司退出的最主要方式，和IPO以及并购平起平坐。
Secondaries are now competing with IPOs and acquisitions as the principal way that these guys are exiting.
所以我觉得这样开头挺合适，能让我们先理清一下，二级市场现在有多重要。
So, I thought that was a decent setup to start the conversation this morning, just to level set how important secondaries have become.
接下来最后一点，过去几年里，二级市场的交易价格都低于市场估值。
And then the final one is secondaries over the last couple of years were trading at a discount to market.
如果我们想卖出旗下公司的股份，买家当时只愿意出8毛钱买一美元的股份，就为了让我们能套现，把DPI还给有限合伙人。
So, if we wanted to sell shares in one of our companies, right, to buyers out there, they were willing to give us 80¢ on the dollar in order for us to get liquid so that we could send DPI back to our LPs.
但现在涨到了106%，已经高于市场价了。
Today it's at a 106, so a premium in the market as of
今年第一季度的数据还没算上最近刚被整顿的那些SPV乱象。
Q1 And twenty this twenty doesn't include some of the Wild West of SPVs that have been unraveled recently.
有人收10%的入门费，双重收益分成，还有大量灰色、非公开的交易。
People charging 10% load in fees, double carry and a lot of gray market, off market stuff.
这些变化对这些公司的员工影响特别大，加文，我想听听你的看法，因为你亲自见证了SpaceX的情况，他们的流程非常规范。
This is also having a profound impact, Gavin, on employees at these companies that I want to hear about because you've seen it up close personal with SpaceX and they have a very orderly process here.
那我们就从这儿开始吧？
So why don't we start there?
这种变化对员工有什么影响，加文？
What impact is this having on the employees, Gavin?
那市场这边，整个过程有多有序呢？
And then on the market, how orderly is this?
买家都是谁？
And who are the buyers?
这些买家是不是在当冤大头？
Are the buyers the sucker at the table?
是那些家族办公室或者高净值个人吗？他们老听我们聊Anthropic、SpaceX或者Androil，就觉得非得买点这几家的股票，根本不在乎值不值。
Are these family offices high net worth individuals who keep hearing us talk about Anthropic or SpaceX or Androil and they just say, have to own the name and they're not discerning.
加文，你能不能先说说你在SpaceX亲眼看到的、对员工的影响？
So, Gavin, maybe you could start about the impact on the SpaceX employees you saw firsthand, etcetera.
也许再把范围扩大一点
Maybe broadening it
不只是限于SpaceX。
beyond SpaceX.
是的。
Yeah.
我觉得，如果公司打算长期保持私有，这绝对是必要的。
I do just think if companies are going to be staying private longer, this is absolutely necessary.
确实有很多人账面上很富有，但手头却很紧。
There there I think there are a lot of people who are very very wealthy on paper but actually cash poor.
如果你为一家你真心相信的公司拼命工作，付出了很多，却连给家人买套像样的房子都做不到，这真的很难受。
And if you're making tremendous sacrifices because you work for a company that you really believe in and you're contributing a lot to that company, it's hard if you can't buy a nice house for your family.
连一些像样的生活都享受不了，确实不容易。
It's hard if you can't afford to do nice things.
尤其是在公司干了七八年甚至九年之后。
Especially in your seven, eight or nine of working at the company.
你跟配偶说，我们账上值一千万、三千万，可连自己的房子都还没买下来。
You tell your spouse we're worth 10,000,000 on paper, 30,000,000 on paper and you don't own your home.
是的。
Yeah.
或者你才十五岁。
Or you're 15.
所以我觉得这非常必要且重要，不管这是好是坏，很明显公司会越来越长时间保持私有。
And so I think this is necessary and important and, you know, whether it is good or bad, I think it is very clear that companies are going to stay private for longer.
真正来说，为什么要长期保持私有呢？
What's the reason to stay private longer, truly?
我觉得其实没有很好的理由非要长期保持私有。
I I I don't think there is actually a good reason to stay private longer.
说得对。
Hear.
说得对。
Hear.
我也完全同意你的看法。
And I completely agree with you too.
是的。
Yeah.
而且我
And I
但为什么会这样呢？
was But why has it happened?
这是因为创始人不想——咱们就直说吧。
This is founders don't want let's just call it what it is.
创始人不想被放在显微镜下观察。
Founders don't want to be under a microscope.
他们只想安心创业，好好生活，不想像在公开市场上那样被时刻盯着？
They want to build and enjoy life and have it easier than being on the public market microscope?
对。
Yeah.
很多人觉得，作为私营公司生活更轻松，更有自由度，也能更着眼于长远规划。
I think there is a perception that life as a private company is easier and you have more freedom and you can think long term.
我不认同这种看法。
I don't agree with this.
我总在想，如果马克·扎克伯格当初把Facebook上市了会怎样。
I always think about Mark Zuckerberg's commentary that had he been public.
就说Facebook吧，我不说它经历过生死一线，但很久以前——现在听起来难以置信——2011年左右，Facebook根本不看好移动应用。
So just, you know, Facebook, I won't call it a near death experience, but long ago, it's difficult to believe, but I don't know, 02/1112, Facebook did not believe in apps.
他们当时信的是HTML6。
They believed in something called HTML six.
应该是HTML5。
HTML five.
HTML5。
HTML five.
HTML5。
HTML five.
对。
Yes.
你当时是
You you you were the
真正的专家。
actual expert.
那是一场激烈的争论。
Was a cataclysmic debate.
当时是我和布雷特·泰勒对峙。
And it was me and Bret Taylor.
我对抗布雷特。
Me versus Bret.
我当时说，要搞应用。
I was like, apps.
我想去开发手机应用。
I want to go build a phone.
布雷特坚持说，要用HTML五。
Bret was like HTML five.
扎克最终选了布雷特。
Zuck picked Bret.
接下来的三年，我一直在消化这个决定带来的后果。
Spent the next three years unwinding that decision.
没错。
Absolutely.
马克·扎克伯格当时的想法是，iPhone刚出来的时候，根本没有像样的应用生态。
And Mark Zuckerberg basically, the idea was, you know, the iPhone comes out and initially there was not a big app app ecosystem.
那时候有人觉得，根本不需要什么应用。
And there was a thought that, hey, there's no need for apps.
你只要用手机上的网页浏览器就行了，HTML5能让网站看起来像原生移动应用。
You're just going to use the web browser on your phone and HTML five was a way of of making websites look mobile native.
很灵活。
Dynamic.
是的。
Yeah.
当时很多聪明人，包括谷歌和Facebook，都觉得这是未来，但事实证明，这并不是未来。
And this seemed like kind of the future to a lot of very smart people, including Google, Facebook, but it was not the future.
那是错的。
It was wrong.
马克·扎克伯格好几次公开说过，他深信，如果当时公司已经上市，面对内部关于这个的争论时，情况会不一样。
And what Mark Zuckerberg has said, I think several times in public, is he profoundly believes that had he been a public company when, you know, there was this internal debate between
查曼，其实当时我去找扎克，说：我需要十亿美元来造这部手机。
Chamath And and detail was actually I went to Zac and I said, I need a billion dollars to build this phone.
那是2010年，我们正处在可以补齐三脚凳第三条腿的关键时刻。
And we are in this moment in 2010 where we can have the third leg of the stool.
那时候安卓和iPhone都还没真正起来。
There's Android, there's iPhone, neither have really taken off yet.
他说：我们没有十亿美元。
And he's like, We don't have a billion.
我说：但公开市场会给我们，他说：不行。结果我们一年后就上市了。
And I said, But the public markets will give And us a he said, No, but then we went public a year later.
但就是这一年的延迟，造成了天壤之别。
But that year made all the difference.
这一步至关重要。
Made all the difference.
他曾说过，如果我当时一直承受来自公开市场投资者的压力。
And he has said that had I had the constant pressure testing from public market investors.
今天早上，我刚和另一位首席执行官聊过。
It was a dynamic I was I was talking to another CEO here this morning.
当你是一家私营公司的CEO时，你在所有投资者眼里就是最特别的那一个。
When you're the CEO of a private company, you are the most special flower to all of your investors.
对于董事会成员来说，尤其是当你特别成功的时候，你的重要性可能不亚于他们的家人或父母，董事会成员会非常关注你。
You're like you are as important to your board members, particularly if you're really successful, you know, maybe as the board members' families or parents, you know, the board members think about you a lot.
一旦上市，你就成了成千上万家公司中的一个，情况就完全不同了。
Once you're public, you're one of thousands of companies, and that's its own dynamic.
但这样做的后果是，私人投资者往往更倾向于迎合管理团队。
But the consequence of this is is that private investors are often selling to management teams.
某种程度上，这意味着他们会说管理团队想听的话，因为你想继续参与下一轮投资。
And at some level, that can mean telling management teams what they need to hear because you want to be able to keep participating in the rounds.
公司一旦上市，投资者想买就买、想卖就卖，这让他们更敢对管理层直言不讳。
Once a company's public, you can buy or sell as you wish, and this means that investors feel freer to give companies management teams.
扎克伯格说过，要是我当初上市了，要是天天面对那些顶尖公开市场投资者的尖锐提问，我想我会更早意识到。
And Zuckerberg said, had I been public, had I been getting rigorous detailed questions from really smart public equity investors, I think I would have
这件事背后还有一个没人讲过的隐情。
And this is unwritten story of that, which has never been said.
他给我打了电话。
He called me.
他跟我说：嘿，老兄。
He's like, hey, man.
那边到底出什么事了？
What the is going on over there?
我说：我知道，因为我刚走，然后我们就做了一份材料。
And I was like, yeah, I know because I had just left and then we wrote a deck.
我拿着材料走到扎克那儿，跟他说：这是你需要做的关键事项。
And I walked over to Zak and I'm like, here's the deck of what you need to do.
把这些事做了。
Do these things.
我觉得这一点很关键，加文。
This is a key point I think, Gavin.
当你还是私有公司时，作为CEO和管理团队，你很难获得真实清晰的信息，因为大家都想靠近你。
When you're private, you do not get clean information as the CEO and the management team because people want access.
一旦你讲真话，或者提出尖锐的问题，就可能失去他们的支持。
And once you give the truth or you ask the hard questions, you might lose access.
完全正确。
100%.
私募市场的奉承风气是真实存在的。
The sycophantic nature of private markets is real.
现在，像埃隆这样出色的CEO。
Now an exceptional CEO Elon.
他会主动去寻找这些信息。
Seeks out Seeks it out.
负面反馈。
Negative feedback.
他就是在找这种反馈。
He's looking for that.
但没几个人这么做，而且还会主动剔除掉。
But not many and actively discards.
也许没几个CEO天生就这么想。
But not many CEOs maybe are are wired that way.
顺便说一句，我们是不是该给布拉德一些认可？
By the way, do think we have to give Brad credit.
是的。
Yeah.
那份演示文稿真的很出色。
That was a very good deck.
你回想起2012年的时候。
You sit back in 2012.
没有。
No.
因为他又做了一个。
Because he did a second one.
他当时
He had
是他做的第二个。
to He did the second one.
他给扎克伯格写的那封公开信，是2022年底发布的吗？
He did the open letter to Zuckerberg at the end of was that at the end of twenty two?
2022年10月。
October 22.
你管那叫什么？
What did you call it?
健身？
Get fit?
那这个叫什么来着？
What was the
是时候健身了。
Time to get fit.
是时候健身了。
Time to get fit.
这两件事影响都非常大。
Those are two very impactful
听好了，你现在听到的都是支持上市的声音，但凯莉，你代表反对派，因为你站在另一边。
So look, you're hearing the bulls on going public, but Kelly take the red team the other side because you're on the other side.
你创办了一家私营企业，然后把它卖给了嘉信理财。
You built a private business, you sold it to Schwab.
显然，现在最大的金融机构之一即将强势进入这个市场。
So clearly one of the largest financial institutions now is going to ram its way into this market.
但与此同时，你也看到了很多反对的声音。
But then you're seeing a lot of pushback.
Anthropic 的意思是，把这些特殊目的实体都解散了吧。
Anthropic is like, Hey, dissolve these SPVs.
我觉得 OpenAI 今天也说，现在就该解散这些特殊目的实体了。
OpenAI, I think, was saying today now dissolve these SPVs.
我们该不该解散这些特殊目的实体？
Should we dissolve the SPVs?
它们到底是从哪儿冒出来的？你凭什么觉得自己站在了历史正确的一边？
Where are they coming from and why are you on the right side of history?
你们平台上那些特殊目的实体，有没有解散过？
And have you had to dissolve any of the ones on your marketplace?
没有。
No.
没有。
No.
首先，我大部分职业生涯都是在做私营公司CEO，后来又当了三年上市公司CEO，我清楚这两者的工作性质天差地别。
Look, I think that first of all, being a private company CEO for most of my career and then being a public company CEO for three years, I recognize the job is incredibly different.
没那么有意思了。
It's much less fun.
你不是在说……
You're not What do
你说‘没那么有意思’，具体是指什么？
you mean when you say much less fun?
作为一家上市公司的首席执行官，你主要得变成一个投资管理者，这和当一个以产品为导向、从第一性原理出发的创业者完全不一样。
Turning into an investment manager primarily as a public company CEO is a very different job than being a visionary product first, first principles business.
一旦你成了上市公司的CEO，一切都会变。
When you become a public company CEO, everything changes.
我觉得在我们现在所处的环境下，你能融到的资金类型，还有刚才讨论中提到的那种资本，其实能让你的私人企业阶段延续得更久。
And I would say in the world we're in now, the kind of capital you can raise, the kind of capital that was represented in the very last discussion allows you to extend your private life.
SpaceX做了整整二十四年的私人公司。
SpaceX, a private company for twenty four years.
但现实是，这些SPV之所以现在冒出来，是因为公司变得太大了，市场正在形成，而像SpaceX这样的公司，在这方面做得特别出色。
But the reality is these SPVs that are now emerging because these companies are getting so big is because a market's trying to happen and a company like SpaceX has done this extraordinarily well.
他们几乎连续十年都在运作流动性计划，因为大家对成为投资者以及获得流动性有着强烈的渴望，这正是加文提到的一些原因。
They've run essentially liquidity programs for almost a decade because there's so much pent up interest in both being an investor and getting liquidity for some of the reasons that Gavin was mentioning.
所以我认为，我们现在看到的是这一阶段的下一步发展。
So I think what we see now is the next phase of this.
嘉信理财与Forge的这笔交易，等于向全世界宣告：这确实是一个真正的资产类别。
This Schwab deal with Forge basically says to the world, this is a real asset class.
它不仅仅是二级市场交易那么简单。
It's more than just secondaries.
我们会把这些公司的股权放进基金产品里，放进管理规范、受监管的SPV结构中，因为它们在市场中确实有其作用。
We're going to put these companies the company's equity into fund products, into very well managed regulated SPV structures because they do serve a purpose in the market.
对。
Yeah.
但如果你要让埃隆同意让你参与，而他自己又想亲自操办，你该怎么说服他呢？
But if you're how do you convince Elon specifically to give you access to that when he wants to do it himself?
他有自己的团队，每六个月就亲自操作一次。
And he has a team and every six months he runs it himself.
你怎么才能拿到这个机会？
How do you get access to that?
你该怎么说服下一个埃隆？
What's your pitch to the next Elon?
这就是我们的方案。
Here's the pitch.
我们的思路是，企业最终会从私营走向上市。
The pitch is you're going to go from being a private company eventually to a public company.
嘉信理财代表的是四千六百万投资者和十二万亿美元的资本。
What Schwab represents is 46,000,000 investors and $12,000,000,000,000.
这将彻底改变企业从私有到公开时的融资方式和股份分配模式。
This will change capital access and the way that you distribute your shares moving from private to public.
你向他推销这个方案的时候，他是怎么反应的？
How did that work when you pitched him on that?
你成功了吗？
Were you successful?
我来告诉你吧。
Well, I'll tell you.
我们在2018年和2019年第一批拿到了SpaceX的SPV份额。
We got our first SPVs on SpaceX in 2018 and 2019.
他同意了吗？
Were they was he okay with it?
当然同意了。
Absolutely.
完全得到了授权。
Totally permissioned.
后来，快到IPO的时候，我们跟他说：你猜怎么着？
And then, as we got closer to the IPO, we said, guess what?
有三千万散户都希望能买上五万美元的SpaceX股份。
We've got 30,000,000 retail investors that would like to have a 50,000 slice of SpaceX.
他后来公开谈到过，要让持股分布更广泛。
And and he went out publicly and talked about having broad based distribution
在IPO价格时。
At the IPO price.
在IPO价格上，嘉信理财也被列入了配售名单。
At the IPO price and Schwab was named one of the IPO allocations.
真是个漂亮的说辞。
Beautiful pitch.
我觉得
I do think
这确实是个非常有效的说法。
this is actually a very effective pitch.
我觉得很多首席执行官对这件事其实有点犹豫，但他们明白，参与这些私募轮的投资机构，可能代表的是工会，也可能代表养老计划，但他们确实喜欢这种让普通人也能参与的想法。
I think a lot of these CEOs, they're a little bit ambivalent about, you know, and I think they understand that maybe the institutions who are investing in these private rounds, you know, they may represent, you know, unions, they may represent retirement plans, but I do think they like the idea of democratizing access.
如果他们打造的东西真的不错，让普通美国人有机会参与，这很有意义。
And if they're building something that they think is great, giving ordinary Americans an opportunity to participate.
我觉得对很多首席执行官来说，这确实是个很有吸引力的故事。
I actually think that's a very appealing story to to a lot of these CEOs
因为他们是推动者，也真正理解股权的力量。
Well, because they're catalysts and and they understand the power of equity.
所以，布拉德，既然你现在是直接面向投资者这一派的，那有什么缺点呢？
So, Brad, what is the downside then of because you're part of the go direct movement now.
BG二号播客正式成为第五号挚友。
BG two pod officially fifth bestie.
加文正式成为第六号挚友。
Gavin officially sixth bestie.
你有了加文？这可是新消息。
You got Gavin, that's new news.
我们今天正式把你列入名单了。
We officially made you today.
但这是否意味着我明确排在布拉德后面？
But does that mean I'm definitively behind Brad?
因为这才是真正值得关注的消息。
Because that that's the real news.
我看出来了，你正站在布拉德身后。
I can see You're you're standing behind Brad.
你正从背后紧紧抱住他。
You're just giving him that big bear hug right behind him.
天哪。
Wow.
对啊。
Yeah.
所以你是说，我成大勺子了？
So are you saying I have the big spoon?
你现在就是大勺子了。
You're the big spoon now.
在那堆额外的勺子里，你排第一。
In the side draw with the extra spoons.
但布拉德，这事儿进展得也太诡异了吧。
But Brad, it's getting very weird very quick.
说真的，能力越大，责任越大。
In all seriousness, with great power comes great responsibility.
有时候，人们的热情可能会超过实际情况。
Sometimes the, you know, the enthusiasm people can have can exceed reality.
没错。
Correct.
我注意到，随着你的影响力提升，你说话变得更稳重了。
Going direct, you've become more measured, I've noticed, as your profile has gone up.
我觉得我们都得提醒大家，别盲目跟风炒股。
I think all of us have to like just make sure people don't blindly follow trades.
别老在CNBC上动不动就贬低某些公司，说什么普通美国人没必要投资这些企业。
Don't talking stuff down on CNBC a couple of times saying, hey, I don't think the average American needs to be in some of these companies.
还有时间。
There's time.
我有点担心。
I get worried.
到了现在这个市场阶段，尤其是在CNBC上面对居家的散户投资者时，我确实会感到担忧。
I get worried at this point in the market stage, particularly on CNBC where you're talking to retail investors at home.
对。
Yes.
我以前也是那些坐在屏幕前，仰望台上每个人、完全信任他们的散户之一。
I was one of those retail guys looking up to everybody on this stage, trusting everybody on this stage.
当有人劝你孤注一掷，去投那些双倍收费的SPV产品时，真的得留个心眼，自己做足功课，认真思考。
And when people are telling you to YOLO into, right, double fee structure SPVs and all this, know, like it's time to be careful, to do your work, to be thoughtful.
我们参与这件事，是因为希望这种金融民主化能长久持续下去。
We're in this because we want this to be durable democratization for a long time.
是的。
Yeah.
我们想为那些在资本主义体系中感到被忽视、被落下的人建立信任。
We want to build trust among those who feel left out and left behind in capitalism.
我们都觉得，企业应该更早地上市。
We all think that we need to go public sooner.
我觉得，当私人市场创造出数万亿美元的价值，而百分之八十的美国人却觉得这是个骗局，觉得自己被排除在外、被抛弃的时候，这种情况其实很危险。
The reason I think, we it is destabilizing when you're creating trillions of dollars in private value and 80% of America think it's a scam where they're left out and left behind.
然后
And then
他们就会蜂拥而入，确实如此。
they come rushing in That's and right.
他们可能是对的。
They could be Right.
所以，这事儿确实挺棘手的。
And so so good cards.
没错。
Right.
我刚才说的，就是上周在CNBC有人问过一个问题：如果你手头有十万美金的闲钱，坐在家里，今天你会不会把全部钱都投进市场？
So all I'm saying, like I said about they asked the question on CNBC last week, if you had a $100,000 of fresh capital and you were sitting at home, is today the day that you would shove it all into the market?
我说，不会。
And I said, no.
我会从规模的角度来想这个问题。
I think about it in sizes.
对吧？
Right?
最近两个月，公开市场的表现是过去十年里最强的。
We just had two of the biggest months in the last ten years in the public markets.
如果我有一百万现金，我可能会先拿出三十万投入市场。
They've been big months, so if I had a stack of a 100, I may put 30 to work today.
我从不试图抄到底部。
I'm never gonna pick the bottom.
也从不指望摸到顶部，但肯定不会把所有钱全押上去。
I'm never gonna pick the top, but I certainly wouldn't be putting it all to work.
对那些一头扎进后期私募项目的人，我也这么说，结果他们往往大失所望。
And I'd say the same thing about late stage privates, people who are YOLO ing into this stuff, and then they feel really disappointed.
等等再说。
Hold on a second.
我买了SpaceX的IPO，结果没涨三倍。
I bought the SpaceX IPO and it didn't go up 3x.
那我问你一个问题。
Let me ask you then.
你觉得这是你的退出套现机会吗？
Do you view this as exit liquidity for you?
你会不会越来越倾向于根据这个来调整你的投资组合和回报？
Like, would you shape your portfolio and returns and increasingly say, You know what?
我不确定这家伙什么时候能上市。
I don't know when this guy's going to go public.
不如干脆把这部分资产都处置掉。
Let me just pump the stuff out.
把收益分出去就行。
Let me get the distribution.
直接打给我的有限合伙人，这事就算了结了。
Let me send it to my LPs and just call it
就一天。
a day.
我们正在趁这个机会出手。
We are selling into this.
你是在趁这个机会出手。
You're selling into this.
没错。
Right.
所以，这房间里有我的有限合伙人说：我们五年前、六年前，甚至七八年前就投资了你的风投基金。
So, I have LPs in this room who say, Listen, we invested in your VC five or VC six seven or eight years ago.
如果你能以四倍或五倍的价格卖出一部分，让我们拿到实际回报，而且价格还很高，那就卖一部分吧。
If you can go sell a slice of that at four or five x and we get DPI and it's priced really high, then go sell some of it.
但在风险投资圈里，我们很少谈这个。
And we often don't talk about this in venture land.
我们所做的一半工作，其实都在公开市场。
Half of what we do is in the public markets.
加文和我每天早上起来都会想，今天是该买还是该卖？
Gavin and I get up every morning and we think to ourselves, should we buy today or should we sell today?
风险投资人从来不去想卖的事。
Venture capitalists don't think about the sell part.
他们只关心怎么买。
They think about the buy part.
如果我们打算让公司长期保持私有，出现像Databricks这样估值两千亿的公司，那我们就得想清楚：今天是不是该卖一点，把钱退给投资人？
So, one if we're going to stay private for longer and we're going to have trillion dollar, you know, private companies and Databricks at $200,000,000,000, you got to think about is today a day we should be selling some and returning it to our investors
但正如杰森说的，这会带来很复杂的人际关系问题——你可能被排除在新项目之外，也可能错过后续轮次，毕竟你是有信誉的投资者，这么做会有信号风险。
because Doesn't it create though, as what Jason said, these very complicated personality dynamics where maybe you get shut out of a new company, maybe you get shut out of an incremental round and you know, there's bad blood because you're a credible investor and there's this signaling risk.
但在私募领域，如果你和加文决定卖出，没人会知道。
Whereas in the privates, if you and Gavin decide to sell, nobody knows.
没错。
Well, no.
在私募市场里，抱歉，
In the private space Sorry,
在公开市场，没人知道。
the publics, nobody knows.
没错。
Exactly.
在公开市场，除非我们的13F报告出来，否则谁都不会知道。
Publics, they don't know until our 13 F comes out.
明白吧？
Okay?
但在私人市场，一直都是我和创始人私下沟通，说：我们打算卖出30%的持股。
But in the private market, it's always a conversation between me and the founder to say, listen, we're we're gonna sell 30% of our position.
他们从来都不喜欢这样，查马斯。
They never like it, Chamath.
他们总是说：我们真希望你们别这么做。
They're always like, we wish you wouldn't do that.
他们不希望这事被人知道，等等。
They don't want it known, etcetera.
是的。
Yeah.
但作为It room有限合伙人的受托人，我的职责是做到
But my job as a fiduciary to the LPs of the It room is to do
感觉就像Gavin，早期风险投资已经发展出了一种新的路径。
does feel Gavin like we have crossed over for early stage venture to a point in which there is a third way.
如果一家公司原本有并购计划，但昨天的演示显示，在Lena Conn动荡期间，并购完全停滞了，现在市场又恢复了。
If your company had M and A and we saw in the presentation yesterday that during the wrath of Lena Conn there was no M and A and it just froze the market, now it's coming back.
IPO市场也曾在某些时期陷入冻结。
IPOs, we did have some freezing of that market for certain periods.
但这种新路径现在非常出色。
But this third way is now fantastic.
我可以以最早期的参与者身份告诉你。
I can tell you as the earliest of the early.
我们现在抓住一切机会出售股份，因为我们的平均投资估值在1000万到2000万美元之间。
We are now pari pursue selling into every chance we get because our average investment is at 10 to $20,000,000 valuations.
当他们估值达到五亿美元时，我会告诉创始人：你开始卖股份的时候，我也跟着卖，这样我才能投下一批像你这样的新公司。
When they hit 500,000,000, I tell the founder, you're going to start selling at 500,000,000, I'm going to sell right alongside you so that I can invest in the next you coming into the market.
现在大家都接受这种做法了。
Everybody is fine with it.
但六七年前，我当初在一家公司这么做时，他们求我别在估值飙到20.21亿美元时跟卖。
But I can tell you six or seven years ago when I did this with a company, they begged me to not participate when they hit peak ZERP $20.21.
他们求我说：J Cal，你得忠于我们。
They begged me, J Cal, you have to be loyal to us.
你不能跟我们同步减持。
You can't sell pari pari sous.
我就跟他们说：你们现在净赚了四千万，而我只拿走了一亿一千万里的一小部分，我只是想陪在你们身边而已。
And I said, you guys are clearing 40,000,000 of the 110,000,000 I'm dollar just asking to be next to you.
金额一样。
Same amount.
我可以问Kelly一个问题吗？
Can I ask Kelly a question?
你怎么把这个做成一个像交易所那样的系统？
How do you systematize this so that it's like an exchange?
也就是说，如果我们只想挂个买价，就能直接成交？
So like if we just want to hit the bid, we can do it?
对。
Yeah.
我不太喜欢二级市场的一点是，我让CFO去联系五个人，我的基金CFO又去联系四个，就是这样。
Like what I don't like about the secondary markets is, you know, I ask my CFO, he calls five guys, then my fund CFO, she calls like four, you know It's like
就像票务代理。
ticket brokers.
没错。
Yes.
我们收到一堆报价。
We get a bunch of bids.
但全都没什么道理。
None of it makes any sense.
我也这么觉得。
And I'm like Yeah.
就像布拉德说的，我已经够头疼了，还得应付CEO的催促。
I'm already dealing with, as Brad said, the agita from the CEO.
这事儿肯定能搞得更简单点。
It's got to be easier than this.
没错。
Yes.
对。
Yeah.
你看，十年前我们就说，得建一套基础设施来支撑这件事。
Look, ten years ago, we said there needs to be infrastructure to pull this off.
这不能一直是个地下市场。
This can't just be a big shadow market.
现在我们正好处在临界点上，过去三年我们专门打造了一个全新平台，让公司能像在交易所上市一样接入它，直接提供流动性。
We're sort of in this tipping point now where we spent the last three years building this brand new platform so that a company could plug into it the same way they could list on an exchange and say, we're going to offer liquidity.
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而且，如果你是风投，十年来一直持着这个股权结构，又想为有限合伙人提供流动性，现在通过What a do就能实现。
And furthermore, if you're a VC and you're on that cap structure for ten years and you want to offer LP liquidity, you can do it in What a do
你的意思是？
you mean?
也就是说，我们可以接入嘉信理财那三千万正在购物的用户群体。
Like, we would be plugging into Schwab's 30,000,000 humans that are buying stuff on
嘉信理财？
Schwab?
有一个平台。
There's a platform.
我们已经搭建了一个拥有三百万投资者的平台，现在还要再接入四千六百万投资者。
We brought a platform with about 3,000,000 investors and now we're going to add 46,000,000 investors to them.
是的。
Yeah.
但等等。
But wait.
等一下。
Hold on a second.
那些不是合格投资者吗？
Aren't those are those accredited investors?
他们需要满足什么条件？
Who do they need to be?
我们刚请了证交会主席来，他说是的。
Because we just have the chair of the SEC on Yes.
所以现在，无论你是通过SPV还是直接在股权结构上交易个股，都必须是合格投资者。
So today, if you are trading individual shares whether it's in an SPV or direct on a cap table, you're accredited.
不过，现在市场上正推出一些新产品。
However, there are products coming to market.
我们后面可以详细聊，比如有60家公司，包括SpaceX，已经推出了面向非合格投资者的产品，最低投资门槛500美元，这些基金的资金来源就是底层资产。
We can talk about this in detail later that have 60 companies including SpaceX that are listed products for unaccredited $500 minimums and that capital for those funds will be the underlying
封闭式基金？
Closed end funds?
这些是定期开放基金。
These are interval funds.
定期开放基金。
Interval funds.
Robinhood 现在已经推出了一只。
Robinhood's got one out now.
我觉得纳瓦尔刚也做了一个。
I think Naval just did
把美国风投做成这种产品。
US VC as one of these.
他打算投入资金。
He's going to contribute
不过，封闭式基金完全是另一种赌法，因为你押的是怕错过的心态——如果你去看这些封闭基金底层资产的实际价值，根本和那些股票的真实市价对不上。
to Now, closed end funds are are a very different bet because you're betting on FOMO because if you look at the underlying value of some of the assets in those closed end funds, they have no bearing to reality of what those underlying shares are actually worth.
所以，价格发现也是这场结构性变化中的关键一环。
So, price discovery is another key component of this structural shift.
但直接回答你的问题，如果风投的有限合伙人想循环使用资金或者套现，这类平台就能让他们把资本再投入下一期基金。
But to answer your question specifically, if a VCs LPs want to recycle or want to get liquid, then a platform like this will allow them to recycle that capital and put it back into the next vintage fund if they want
加文，我
Gavin, I
有个
have a
我有个问题想问你，就基于这个。
I have a question for you based on this.
当这些回报数据公布时，风投的平均回报率看起来会非常亮眼。
When these returns come out, the mean return in venture is going to look incredible.
但实际回报率还是烂得不行。
The BD in return is still going to be shit.
所以请你解释一下，人们会怎么分辨其中的真假，明年真实情况会怎样。
So walk us through how people will sort through that and the reality of what's going to happen in the next year.
我觉得有两件非常重要的事。
Well, so I think there's two very important things.
第一，如果你是一家风投公司，却没有实质性地投资过这些估值万亿以上的公司，而你明明有很多机会可以入场，那你的回报不仅不会好，相对而言连DPI都拿不出来，根本就拿不到DPI。
One, I observe if you were a venture firm and you do not have material exposure to one of these trillion dollar plus companies, that you had many, many chances to buy into, not only are your returns not going to be good, but you're not going to have DPI on a relative basis, but you're not going to have DPI.
当然，也有例外。
And you know, there's exceptions.
我们那些顶尖的A轮投资机构，可能没投到这类公司，但他们的回报依然惊人，DPI也非常好。
Our great series A firms, they may not have this, but their returns are still amazing with great DPI.
但眼下，我开始注意到一些没投到这类公司的风投机构，行为变得有点奇怪，我觉得他们已经开始感受到品牌风险了——因为他们的DPI和回报正从原本的前五分之一、前三分之一，一路下滑。
But in so, I am beginning to see venture firms who don't have exposure to one of these companies behave in strange ways because I think they're starting to feel a little bit of franchise risk because their DPI and their returns are going to go from, you know, hey, top quintile, top turtile, tercel
所以他们在做些不寻常的事。
So they're doing unnatural
他们在做些不合常理的操作。
actions They're doing for unnatural things.
他们正在写一些我称之为看涨期权的合约。
They're writing what I see as call options.
就像那些新兴的实验室公司一样。
Like a bunch of these neo labs.
我得讲个故事。
Well, I need a story.
我确实做了一些事。
I've done something.
也许这些看涨期权里会有几个成真的，但我总觉得他们在某种程度上被牵着鼻子走，甚至是在追着跑。
And maybe some of these call options pay off, but I do think they're engaging at some level and maybe They're chasing it.
他们在追。
They're chasing.
在
In
赌徒眼里。
gambling terms.
而那些已经押中这些公司的机构，则要克制得多，因为他们知道自己占着优势。
Whereas the people who have exposure to this are being a lot more disciplined because they know they're in great position.
我认为，另有一个非常重要的趋势，即将在长期型共同基金和交叉基金领域发生。
I think another very important dynamic is going to happen in the world of long only mutual funds and crossover funds.
长期共同基金，比如我以前的公司富达，那真是个了不起的地方，我很喜欢，还有贝利·吉福德、资本研究、威灵顿、TRO，根据证交会的规定，它们都可以把最多15%的资产配置到私募领域。
So long only mutual funds, you know, my former employer, Fidelity, amazing place, love it, Bailey Gifford, Capital Research, Wellington, TRO, they all can, per SEC rules allocate up to 15% of their funds into privates.
这些可是全球规模最大的资金池。
And these are the biggest pools of capital in the world.
它们的规模远超主权财富基金。
They dwarf sovereign wealth funds.
但大多数公司为了避免惹上证交会的麻烦，都会主动把比例控制在3%、5%或者7%。
But, you know, most firms, because they don't want to get in trouble with the SEC, they say, hey, we're going to cap it at 3% or 5% or 7%.
这事当时闹得挺公开的。
It was very public.
去年，贝利·吉福德就因为监管原因被迫卖掉了SpaceX的股份。
Bailey Gifford was forced to sell SpaceX last year for regulatory reasons.
随着这些公司陆续上市，大部分长期共同基金现在想参与私募市场却很难，因为它们已经快到自己设定的上限了。
And what's going to happen as these companies go public, all of these long only mutual funds are by and large finding it hard to participate in private markets right now because they're at the limits of their self imposed
3%。
3%.
5%。
5%.
当一家公司上市且禁售期结束后，这部分资金就会被释放出来。
When a company goes public and lockup expires, it moves out of that bucket.
不错。
Nice.
所以，接下来会有数千亿美元的后期投资需求重新回到市场，这些资金之前因为达到上限而被挡在外面。
So this is going to be hundreds of billions of dollars of new late stage demand that is coming back to the market after kind of being out
那正是大量闲置资金等待出手的市场。
out of That's the market for a a lot of dry powder.
确实有大量闲置资金。
It's a lot of dry powder.
接下来的交易机会来了。
The next trade is up then.
边际上的交易机会在上升。
The marginal trade is up.
创始人现在可占尽了优势。
Well, founders are going to be in the catbird seat.
大家都急着把钱投出去。
People are going be looking to put money to work.
最近关于合格投资者规则的讨论挺多的。
Interesting buzz going around about accreditation rules.
我们请了证交会主席来做《All-Ins》的访谈。
We had the head of the SEC on All-Ins interview show.
我们确实做了这个采访。
We did it.
他们打算推出一个高净值投资者资格测试，这可是我早就呼吁过的事，能真正让普通美国人也能参与投资。
And they're going to have a sophisticated investor test, something I've been talking about for a long time that would really democratize the way Invest America has access.
多年来，不断有人来找我，说要把基金上链，或者把基金打包成ETF卖出去。
And then funds, I've been getting pitched for years on, oh, put your fund on blockchain or sell your fund into this ETF.
凯莉，你能不能聊聊，风投基金未来有没有可能像二手份额那样更灵活地交易？
Maybe you could talk a little, Kelly, about the possibilities around venture funds being more tradable like secondaries are.
这在你的计划里吗？
Is that on your roadmap?
显然，市场是有需求的。
Obviously, there's demand for it.
我能告诉你，这对我的有限合伙人——布拉德、查马斯，还有以前的基金——会带来什么影响。
What would that because I can tell you what that would do for my LPs, Brad, Chamath LPs and previous funds.
如果你能像进出Anthropic那样自由地进出这些基金，天啊，这对那些遇到离婚、重大生活变故的人会有多大的帮助，至少能多一点灵活性。
If you could come in and out of these funds the way you can come in and out of Anthropic, my Lord, that could be just incredible for folks who, I don't know, they have a divorce, they have a life event, you know, just a little more fluidity.
二级基金交易其实已经存在很久了。
So there's been secondary fund trading for a long time.
我觉得区块链和代币化能让这变得更高效，这样的市场迟早会到来。
I think blockchain and tokenization makes it more efficient, That world will will come.
但我们现在在问自己一个问题：如果你是持有一个像这样高价值资产的基金的有限合伙人，你真的想交易你的基金份额，还是只想退出？
But the question we're asking ourselves now is, if you're an LP in a fund that's holding something as valuable as this, are are you really interested in trading your fund position or do you just want to get out of
的
the
那个大赢家，是这个名字吗？
big winner, that name?
我们的看法是，后者可能性更大。
And our view is it's probably the latter.
有时候，基金方会来找我们，说他们有个老基金，里面只有两家公司，都已经十五年了，但就是没法退出。
And in some cases, funds will come to us and say, we've got a vintage fund that has two companies in it that are 15 years old and we can't clear that fund.
所以，我们认为，这种流动性需求将会在市场中出现。
And so that's an application of liquidity to the market that we think is coming to the market.
你有没有担心，未来一年里，散户会成为这三家超级巨头的退出流动性？
Are you worried at all over this next year about this idea of retail being exit liquidity for these three ginormous companies?
这有风险吗？
Like, there any risk?
你会怎么分类这些风险？
Like, how do you bucket the risk?
你又是怎么管理这些风险的？
How do you manage the risk?
是的。
Yeah.
风险是什么？
What is the risk?
如果出了问题，会有什么后果？
If something were to happen, what's the blowback?
我昨天跟布拉德聊过这个事。
I was talking with Brad about this yesterday.
我们一直在关注这些公司的估值和倍数。
We're we're watching these valuations in these multiples.
昨晚吃饭时我们还讨论了，这些数字真是高得离谱，大家却还在往里冲。
We had this conversation at dinner last night and saying, wow, these are these are extraordinary and people should come into this market
但“离谱”其实是暗指
and not Extraordinary is a coded word for
偏高。
Elevated.
你知道的。
You know?
没什么大不了的。
It's okay.
还行。
Fine.
这明显是个泡沫。
It's a bubble.
你就说吧。
Call it
你是说你觉得这些估值太高了？
You're what it saying you think they're high, the valuation
我觉得进入这个领域的散户投资者应该往更下沉的市场看看，找一些不是每天在CNBC上刷屏、但能更早接触到的有趣机会。
is I think the retail investor coming into this space needs to look down market and look at interesting opportunities that aren't the things that are on CNBC every day and have access to them earlier.
2018年和2019年，确实有不少散户投资者想投SpaceX。
And we had a bunch of retail investors show up in 2018 and 2019 that wanted to be in SpaceX.
他们特别高兴，能在估值三百亿美元的时候就入了场。
And they're thrilled that they got in when the valuation was 30,000,000,000.
对。
Yeah.
我觉得如果市场打开，我们接下来讨论的就会是这个。
And I think if the market opens up, that's what we'll be talking about.
我现在想入手的，是那些还没到市场最顶峰、没准备上市的项目。
What do I want to get into now that's not, you know, at the very very top of the market getting ready to go public.
还有，布拉德和加文，我们进步了。
Also, Brad and Gavin, we're getting better.
给格利致敬。
Shout out to Gurley.
我们在定价IPO方面越来越准了，不再让钱白白留在桌上。
We're getting better at pricing these IPOs and not leaving money on the table.
大多数公司上市时，估值都已经很到位了。
They're fully valued in most cases when they go public.
是的。
Yeah.
或者在某些情况下。
Or in some cases.
哦，它们还是定价偏低。
Oh, they're still mispriced.
定价严重偏低。
They're massively mispriced.
嗯，也不是。
Well, no.
我们确实看到一些公司上市后股价下跌了。
We we do we have seen some that have gone down, you know, after they go out.
所以呢。
So, know
没什么值得大家抢着要的。
Nothing good that anybody wants.
我的意思是，你听我说
I mean, listen
等一下
Wait a minute.
你们觉得呢？
What what do you guys think?
我们是不是更接近公开市场的定价了？
Is it are we are we closer to public pricing them?
加文可是干这行二十五年了。
I mean Gavin and have been doing this twenty five years.
有时候公开市场对私营企业估值偏低，有时候又是私营企业估值偏低。
There are moments that the public market is undervalued relative to privates and moments where privates are undervalued relative to public.
现在，科技领域的所有东西都定价挺高的了。
Right now, everything in the world of technology is pretty fully valued.
对吧？
Right?
你不可能经历了这么疯狂的上涨，还觉得所有东西都便宜。
Like it's you can't have the parabolic moves we've had and think that everything is cheap.
这并不是说我们不会再涨，但过去十五年里，咱们在科技领域被揍了这么多回，早就该明白了。
That's not to say that we're not going to go higher, but when you've been punched in the face as many times as all of us have over the last fifteen years in technology.
我们知道，这条路是锯齿状向上攀升的。
We know it's a jagged line up into the right.
所以对散户来说，只要能扛得住，比如你推出一个产品，只要散户能挺过下跌期，他们最终还是会赚的。
So, for the retail investors, long as they have staying power, so if if you're going to launch a product, as long as the retail investor can stay in that product through the drawdown, they're going to do fine.
问题是，大多数人总在高点梭哈，因为大家都被炒得热血沸腾。
The problem is most of them YOLO at the top because everybody gets them all jimmied up and excited.
于是他们加杠杆，做两倍杠杆的交易，搞各种乱七八糟的操作——就在SpaceX上市那天，Gavin和我看到有十四只ETF同时上线，全是加杠杆押注SpaceX的，估值都快到一千七百五十亿美元了。
And so they're levering up, they're doing 2x levered memory trades and all this shit that Gavin and I are There are 14 ETFs launching on the day of the SpaceX IPO that are levered ETFs into SpaceX at like whatever, 1,750,000,000,000.
这让我明白，我们可能还没到顶，但绝对不是在底部。
So, this just tells me that there's a lot of We may not be at the top, but we ain't at the bottom.
我们大概是在顶部附近来回震荡，这么说挺准确的。
We're bouncing along the top might be a You fair description,
你得根据情况合理配置资金，这正是主动管理的核心。
know, you got to allocate accordingly and that's what active management is about.
如果我们不这么想，当伊朗战争刚爆发、人们在垃圾桶边呕吐、市场暴跌时，加文和我却对视一眼，心想：天啊，Anthropic的收入简直爆了。
If we do not if we're not thinking about that, when people are puking into their garbage cans at the start of the Iran war and the market is down, Gavin and I are looking at each other and saying, Good God, these Anthropic revenues are off the charts.
我们得加大风险敞口。
We got to get more dollars at risk.
把更多资金押到Anthropic和公开市场的股票上。
Shove more onto the table in both anthropic and public market stocks.
但七十五天后，一切又全变了。
But then seventy five days later, it's all changed.
对吧？
Right?
现在市场
Now, the market
有哪个市场周期像现在这样，行情变化如此集中地发生在短短一段时间里？
has ever been in a market cycle where these moves are just so concentrated in time?
你把一两年的市场波动压缩到三十天、六十天里，这种情况发生在哪儿？
Where you take like a year or two's worth of moves and you compress it into thirty days, sixty days?
跟1999年到2000年比，这根本不算什么。
I mean, this is nothing relative to '99 and 2000.
完全不算什么。
Nothing.
跟那时候比，这真没什么大不了的。
This is nothing relative to that.
是啊，确实如此。
Like, I mean Yeah.
说说看，具体是怎样的。
Describe Yeah.
拆解。
Dispacking.
有时候它们会突然醒来
Sometimes they wake
那九九年和两千年的状况到底是什么样的？如果现在是个过山车，那时候算什么？
up What was ninety nine two thousand like in terms of like a if this is a roller coaster, what was that?
是的。
Yeah.
那时候到底是什么样子？
And what was that?
我的意思是，这就像一个平缓的正弦波，根本算不上什么剧烈起伏。
I mean, I don't you know, this is this is this is like a this is a roller coaster that's like kind of a gentle sine wave.
对。
Yeah.
它就是
It's
有趣。
fun.
九九年就像周五晚上的拉斯维加斯。
Ninety nine was Vegas on a Friday night
对。
Yes.
那是嗑了太多药之后的事。
After way too many drugs.
对。
Yes.
明白吧？
Okay?
没错。
That's right.
简直疯得没边了。
Like, it was out of control nuts.
CMGI当时一点收入都没有，股价却在短短六个月里从两美元涨到了两千美元。
CMGI had no revenue and the stock went from $2 to $2,000 over the course of you know six months.
他们还买下了福克斯伯勒体育场。
Quite a big They buy Foxborough Stadium.
他们上了《时代》杂志封面，两年后就倒闭了。
They're on the cover of Time Magazine and they're out of business two years later.
对吧？
Right?
这跟Anthropic、OpenAI和SpaceX可完全不一样。
Like that is very different than Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX.
没错。
Right.
这些都是实实在在的公司。
These are extraordinarily real businesses.
所以我觉得更合适的比较对象是2021年。
So, I think the better compare is like 2021.
是的。
Yeah.
对吧？
Right?
当估值超前于实际价值，或者已经涨到区间顶部的时候。
Where valuations get ahead of themselves or they're at the top end of the range.
半导体指数可能出现正常的10%到20%回调，高贝塔股票可能下跌30%到40%，很多刚进场的人会慌了。
We could have a normal run of the mill consolidation in the public markets in the semi index of 10 or 20%, which means high beta would be down 30 to 40% and a lot of people who just got in would be panicking.
对吧？
Right?
但那些已经持有了半年甚至三年的人会发现，这不过是小波动而已。
But the people who have been in for six months or three years would would notice that that's just a blip.
所以，我觉得这完全不是一回事。
So, I don't think it's at all like Okay.
我想问你们三位一个问题。
A question for the three of you.
四位。
Four.
是的。
Yeah.
最后一个问题。
Final question.
我有个
I have a
最后一个问题。
final question.
把前十大私营公司去掉。
Take the top 10 names, private companies off.
明白吗？
Okay?
别考虑那些。
Forget those.
那些不能算。
You can't pick those.
给我一个规模在几百亿美元左右、你可以现在通过二级市场买入、但你目前没持有的私营公司，你会想买它吗？
Give me a sub, you know, in the tens of billions, few 100,000,000,000 private company that you could buy today a secondary and that you do not own that you would want to own?
我先点你，布拉德。
I'll start with you, Brad.
大家一个接一个说吧。
Just go around the horn.
找一家你目前没持有的公司，但如果有机会从二级市场买入，你会想买。
Something you don't own, but if you have the chance to buy secondary, you would.
比如说，像我所说的那种处于拐点增长阶段的公司，查马斯，就是那些估值超过30亿美元、但还没到500亿美元的公司。
I mean, take a company, you know, in that what I call inflection growth, Chamath, so these are companies, the thousand companies that are over 3,000,000,000, but let's call it sub 50,000,000,000.
我觉得欧洲市场上有几家特别有意思，但也最难把握。
I think it's the trickiest in Europe that I think is really interesting.
downside 是，像 OpenAI 和 Anthropic 这样的公司说要干某件事，结果一下子就把他们几亿美元的收入给干没了。
Downside, OpenAI and Anthropic say we're going to do this and all of a sudden it eviscerates their hundreds of millions of dollars in revenue.
而这些公司的 upside 在于，他们早就建好了非常复杂的智能代理层，像 Meta、谷歌、SpaceX 这些巨头一看，觉得我们得买下他们，好加速自己进入智能代理领域。
The upside on on these businesses is that they actually have already built very sophisticated agentic layers and that all these guys, Meta, Google, SpaceX come along and say we want to buy you because we want to accelerate our path into agent
我今天刚被说服的一个名字，跟你们分享一下。
I'll I'll give you the name that I was convinced of today.
好的。
Okay.
昨天提到的，由托马斯·拉方特创办的Revolut。
Yesterday by by Thomas LaFont, which was Revolut.
我一直有点了解，但没细说，杰克，他们到底是做什么的。
You know, I had always kind of like I had some early Explain what they did, Jack.
我手里有Coinbase的股票。
Like, I own some Coinbase.
我也持有Robinhood的股票。
I own some Robinhood.
这些我们都做过。
We did all of that stuff.
效果还行。
It was fine.
之前对金融科技有点忽视。
Kind of ignored fintech.
托马斯在后台给我做了一个特别打动人的介绍，当时我们在一起，讲的是Revolut。
And Thomas backstage gave me an incredibly we were together, an incredibly compelling pitch for Revolut.
我后来真去查了，就想看看Revolut在二级市场的股价是多少。
And I actually went and I was like, okay, show me what the Revolut share price is in these secondary markets.
我有点好奇了。
I got kind of curious.
也许我该买一点。
Maybe I should pick up some.
所以这大概就是我的……
So that would be my
Revolut是做什么的？
What does Revolut do?
它是一家银行。
It's a It's a bank.
有意思的是，它是一家拥有全新一代技术架构的数字银行。
And what's interesting is it's a neobank that has a completely next generation stack.
就像布拉德说的，那种在现代重新打造、拆解传统巨头的模式，前景非常广阔。
Kind of what Brad said is like that theme of you rebuild it in the modern era and you unbundle the incumbent, that that has a lot of legs.
尤其是在受监管的市场里，这种模式更有潜力。
And in a regulated market, that has a ton of legs.
所以他们在欧洲做得非常成功。
And so, you know, they're doing really well in Europe.
现在正准备进入美国市场。
They're coming to The United States.
创始人简直是个天才。
The founder seems to be just an absolute star.
几千万用户，十四个业务线。
Tens of millions of customers, 14 lines of business.
估值已经快到十亿美元了。
They're like a billion I'm dollars
我对这个挺好奇的。
curious about that.
加文，你有最近买入的股东吗？
Gavin, do you have Shareholders.
最近有收购哪些股东吗？
That you've bought recently?
没有。
No.
我只能说，我们公开参与过的两家领先公司是ARIA和DriveNets，它们都属于网络领域。
Would just say, well, you know, two names that we've been involved in publicly as leading are ARIA and DriveNets, and they're both in the networking space.
随着数据中心越来越专业化和复杂化，未来会出现越来越多专用芯片，也就是推理、预填充和解码的分离。要让这些芯片像交响乐一样协同工作，确保每个任务在合适的时间用上合适的芯片，我觉得网络技术必须重新设计。
And basically, as data centers get more specialized and complicated, you're going to have increasingly specialized chips, it's called the disaggregation of inference and prefill and decode, And to make all of these chips work together like a symphony and have the kind of the right chip for the right job at the right time, I do think we need to reinvent networking.
ARIA和DriveNets正是以完全不同的方式来解决这个问题。
And ARIA and drive nets are coming at the problem in a very different way.
如果你是
If you're
一个AI实验室，你应该是最早意识到这一点的人之一了。我记得你在一个播客里提到过，基础设施、网络和芯片领域即将迎来一轮超级周期。
an AI lab You've been one of the earliest I'll give I you think that you you framed this on one of the on on a podcast that I saw which is there is an impending super cycle in infra networking silicon.
你确实一直站在最前沿。
You've really been at the front end.
我现在也完全认同了。
I buy into it completely now too.
我确实这么认为。
I have.
非常好。
Really good.
真的不错。
It's really good.
凯莉，你有推荐的公司吗？
Kelly, any names?
欧洲有一家做神经机器人学的。
Neurorobotics in Europe.
神经机器人学。
Neurorobotics
这是一家公司，没错。
is a company Yes.
是吗？
Are
人工智能驱动的物流机器人。
AI powered logistics robotics.
太棒了。
Love it.
他们不在硅谷核心的高价值地段，而是在德国。
They're not in the main strip of high value real estate in Silicon Valley, they're in Germany.
一家低调的公司，背后有大投资方，年收入一亿美元，表现非常出色。
Quiet company, big investors, 100,000,000 revenue, kicking ass.
太棒了。
Love it.
杰森，我最近一直在研究几个投资方向。
Jason, know, I have a couple of thesis that I've been looking at.
一个是，随着成本下降，埃隆到底在把什么东西送入太空？
One is what is Elon helping put into space as the price goes down?
所以我们直接在资本结构和SPV里投了Vast，这家公司正在建造空间站，我们认为他们会胜出。
And so, we did direct on the cap table and SPV for vast which is building space stations and we think they're going to win.
另一个我想称之为Uber 2.0。
The other one is what I'll just call Uber two point zero.
格雷利和我在这上面做了很多笔记，布拉德你也一样。
Gurley and I took a lot of notes on that, Brad, as well.
所以我们投了Zipline，虽然金额不大，但如果你能把配送成本从15美元降到5美元，再慢慢降到2美元，那消费量会爆炸式增长，而且这会在空中发生。无人机这个领域曾经被大家彻底放弃，现在却真的行得通了。
And so we were able to do zip line and put a small ticket size into zip line as well because if you can take the delivery cost down from $15 to $5 and then eventually $2 that's going to drive consumption massively and it's going to happen in the air and these drones had such a false start that everybody gave up on the entire sector and now it works.
Keller告诉我一个特别简单的创新：无人机悬在空中，放下一根系着餐盒的绳子。
And it was just a very simple innovation that Keller told me which was the drone stays up in the air and drops a tether with the box in your burrito.
你只要拉一下绳子，餐盒就自动降下来。
If you grab the tether and you pull it, it just comes down.
根本不用让一个巨大的机器人降落在你后院，螺旋桨转得能把狗都吓死。
You don't have to land like this giant robot in your backyard with blades spinning to kill your dog.
其实，关于Zipline，我觉得有一个非常重要的点。
Well, I think there's actually a very important like on zipline.
它为这个世界做了很多了不起的事。
It's an amazing it it has done great things for the world.
我的Atreides也投资了Zipline。
So my my Atreides is also involved in zipline.
但Zipline当初起步时，最难的是让任何自动驾驶系统真正进入现实世界，收集实际数据。
But zipline started so the hard thing is, to make anything autonomous work, you need to get it out into the world and gathering real world data.
这正是AI运作的方式。
This is how AI works.
而在美国空域里，想获得批准让飞行器自主飞行，非常困难。
And it's hard to get approval to fly things around autonomously in American airspace.
于是Keller想到，我们不如去非洲国家，专门运送药品。
So Keller had the idea of we're going to go to African countries and we are going to, know, if a Deliver medicines.
帮助这些偏远地区运送药品，他们特别聚焦在孕产医疗上。
Help or deliver medicines to these small and they focused on maternity.
在一些非洲国家，他们将孕产妇死亡率降低了百分之九十到九十五。
And they have cut the maternal mortality rate in some of these African countries by ninety to ninety five percent.
你在一个小村庄里，只有一个助产士，有个手机应用，孕妇一发动，按下按钮，一小时后，无人机就会送来一个冷藏箱，里面装着现代药品和血液。
So you're in a small village, there's one midwife, there's an app, a woman goes into labor, they press a button, and you know, an hour later a zip line drone drops a refrigerated package of modern medicine and blood and
这件事他们坚持做了七年。
everything You that was did it for seven years.
这项技术对这些非洲国家的健康状况产生了巨大影响，现在也来到了美国。
And it's had a huge impact on health outcomes in these African countries and now it's come to America.
这真是个了不起的故事，我已经彻底重组了我的公司，专注做杠铃策略。
I This is an incredible story and I've basically now reconstructed my firm to do the barbell.
我错过了早期投资机会。
I missed the seed investment.
我当时拒绝了，因为我觉得我们不该在那个大洲投资。
I turned him down because I was like, we don't invest on that continent.
我们对那里根本一无所知。
We don't have any insight into it.
我们根本搞不懂，而且硬件这事儿本来就难。
We don't understand it and hardware is hard.
他有我的邮箱，反正我就一直跟他保持联系，后来他跟我说：我搞定了。我就说：嘿，我这边有个投资联盟。
And he has the email, whatever and I've stayed in touch with him and he said, listen, I figured it out and I said, hey, know, I have the syndicate.
让我看看能不能弥补这个错误。
Let me see if I can correct that mistake.
我可以投资吗？
May I invest?
他说：你是我理想中的投资人。
He said, I I you're my dream investor.
我从一开始就盼着你能加入，这真的太重要了。
I've wanted you on this whole time and it's just so important.
不行。
No.
不行。
No.
我们一直都是朋友，我请他上过三次播客。
We've been friends for all this time and I've you know, I've had him on the pod three times.
他问我：你什么时候进股东名册？
And he said, when are you gonna be on the cap table?
我说，你知道吗？
And I said, you know what?
我从你们这些做后期投资的团队身上学到了很多，我觉得我也可以
I learning from you guys specifically this late stage shop, I'm like, well, I can
做到。
do that.
现在我们就这样走到了这一步，说到这儿，对。
And here we are and On that note Yes.
我们今天就到这里吧。
Let's wrap up.
好的。
Yes.
干得漂亮，各位。
Well done, guys.
真的非常感谢你们。
You so much.
谢谢。
Thank you.
凯莉，谢谢你。
Kelly, thank
你也辛苦了，布拉德。
you, Brad.
谢谢。
Thank you.
谢谢。
Thank you.
太感谢了。
Thank Thanks, Thank you.
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