伊朗的临界点，特朗普收购格陵兰，解决能源成本，亿万富翁税的反弹

那么，你参与过这些讨论吗？

So have you been involved in any of these discussions?

你是在和克里斯·赖特沟通，还是说这属于一种自由市场解决方案？

Is it are you talking with Chris Wright and, like, overlapping in terms of the communication here, or is it just a free market solution?

杰森，自从本届政府上任之初，总统就一直在这个问题上走在前列。

Well, Jason, the the president's been ahead of the curve on this issue really since the beginning of the administration.

我不知道你是否还记得，他曾表示要让人工智能公司成为最大的电力公司，因为他明白这些公司所需的数据中心耗电量巨大，但它们会自行建设发电设施，而不是仅仅依赖电网供电。

I don't know if you recall, but he said that he was gonna make AI companies into the biggest power companies because he understood that the data centers that they needed required a lot of power, but they were gonna stand up their own power generation and they wouldn't just draw off the grid.

所以，这种认知一直存在。

And so I think this understanding has always been there.

当我与超大规模云服务商交谈时，他们也告诉我，他们的计划不是从电网取电，而是要在电表后方自行建立发电设施。

When I've talked to the hyperscalers, they also tell me that their plan is not to draw from the grid, it's to basically set up their own power generation behind the meter.

这被称为就近托管。

It's called colocation.

事实上，我认为最终这将因两个原因降低居民用户的电价。

And in fact, I think ultimately this will bring down rates for residential consumers for two reasons.

一是当数据中心自产电力时，如果接入电网，可以将多余电力售回或捐赠给电网。

One is that when the data centers create their own power, they can sell back or donate back to the grid when they connect.

它们不必接入电网，但一旦接入，就可以回馈电力。

They don't have to connect to the grid, but once they do, they can donate back.

其次，电力生产存在许多固定成本。

And then second, there's a number of fixed costs in power generation.

这不仅仅是可变成本，对吧？

It's not just variable, right?

这些固定成本规模很大。

There's these large fixed costs.

因此，随着规模扩大，这些固定成本会被分摊到更多的供电量上，从而降低可变电价，也就是每个人的计量电价。

And so as you increase scale, those fixed costs get amortized over a greater amount of supply and that brings down the variable rate, basically the the metered rate for everybody.

所以规模越大越好。

So scale is good.

我认为像伯尼·桑德斯这样的人对这个问题的批评具有误导性，他们说：我们只需彻底关闭所有数据中心即可。

And I think the deceptive nature of the criticism here by like Bernie Sanders and people like that is what they say is, well, we just have to shut down all the data centers, period.

这里真正的问题在于，他和类似的人对电力生产施加了过度监管，导致新建电力设施变得极其困难。

When the real problem here is that he and others like him have over regulated power generation to death so that it's too hard to set up net new power.

对吧？

Right?

我的意思是，如果电力生产更容易，就不需要对数据中心的用电量设限了。

I mean, if power generation were easier, there wouldn't need to be a limit on what the data centers could use.

他们完全可以自备电力。

They could just bring their own power.

所以，这显然是解决方案。很高兴看到微软做出这一承诺并将其正式化。

So that is the obvious solution here And it's good to see Microsoft make this pledge and sort of formalize that.

我认为其他所有超大规模云服务商都会这么做。

I think all the other hyperscalers will do that.

再说一遍，我认为他们从未计划过依赖电网来满足电力需求。

Again, it was never part of their plan, I think, to draw on the grid for their power needs.

我一直觉得，他们早就明白必须自建电力设施。

They always, I think, understood that they'd have to stand up their own power.

问题就在于这些法规阻碍了这一点。

And the issue is just regulations getting in the way of that.

关于这一点，最后要提的是，FERC（联邦能源监管委员会）有一些规定妨碍了联合选址的实施。

And just one final point on this is that there are a bunch of regulations by FERC, for example, that interfere with the ability to do colocation.

联合选址是指将数据中心和电力生成设施建在一起，或者将两者结合起来。

Colocation is when you put a data center and the power generation next to each other or you do them together.

能源部长克里斯·赖特已指示FERC做出多项调整，以简化购表和联合选址流程，使这些数据中心能够自建电力设施。

And Chris Wright, the Secretary of Energy, has directed FERC to make a bunch of changes to make buying the meter and colocation easier so that these data centers can stand up their own power.

而这一切尚未发生的原因，仅仅是由于常见的官僚拖延，但此事正稳步推进中。

And the only reason that hasn't happened is just because of the usual bureaucratic delays, but that is well on its way to happening.

好的。

Alright.

这样理解清楚吗？

Does that make sense?

是的。

Yeah.

完全说得通。

Makes total sense.

而且你知道，如果我们开始考虑激励措施，激励措施显然很重要。

And you know, if we start thinking about incentives, incentives obviously matter.

我认为很多人并不知道这一点，我觉得我们在讨论核燃料循环时提到过。

And I don't think a lot of people know this, but and I've I think I talked about it when we're talking about nuclear free burn.

在法国，住在阿韦昂（我猜是这么发音）反应堆附近的人，只需缴纳0.1%的税，而地区平均税率是12%。

In France, the people who live near the Avoin, I think is how it's pronounced, reactor, they pay point 1% tax versus the 12% regional average.

然后我认为英国也讨论过类似的风险区域或补偿方案。

And so they and then I think The UK has also talked about these sort of danger zone or proposals and payments.

你可以给人们提供折扣，以激励和奖励他们，比如提供免费的本地电力等，但这些做法在美国还没有出现。

You can give people a discount to incentivize them and reward them, giving them free local electricity, etcetera, for living near a nuclear power plant that hasn't come up here in The United States.

关于这些数据中心，已经出现了大量的恐惧、不确定性和怀疑，弗莱堡（Freiburg）也围绕着这些话题。

And there's been a lot of FUD, fear, uncertainty, and doubt, Freiburg around these data centers.

人们在四处传播很多说法。

People are throwing around a lot of talking points.

我认为你和我之前私下讨论过关于水资源使用的误解，实际上这些数据中心的用水大部分是循环利用的。

I think you and I discussed offline the the misperceptions about water usage and that the water usage is largely recycled in these data centers.

如果你了解这一点，能否向观众说明这个数据？

If you know about that, would you would you inform the audience about that piece of data?

我们有大量的水。

Well, we got a lot of water.

水只是循环流动，所以我认为这并不是一个问题。

It just goes around in a circle, so I don't think that's an issue.

但清洁用水对当地居民而言成本上升，这才是问题所在，也是误解所在。

But clean water and the cost of clean water increasing for a local population is the is the issue, the misperception there.

这些数据中心的现代冷却系统会使水循环流动，将热量从数据中心带走。

The modern cooling systems in these data centers, the water recirculates and transports the heat out of the data center.

所以水并不是被消耗掉了。

So it's not like the water is used up.

我想有一种独立的蒸发冷却方式确实会消耗一些水，但现代数据中心并不使用这种方式。

I guess there's a separate type of evaporative cooling that does use up some water, but modern data centers don't use that.

所以水资源问题其实是个彻头彻尾的骗局，它只是更大 affordability 问题的一个次级骗局。

So the water issue is really a total hoax and it's really kind of a sub hoax of this larger affordability issue.

我不是说 affordability 不是问题，但它是由拜登时期的9%通胀造成的，现在民主党却想把它变成一个问题。

I'm not saying that affordability isn't an issue, but it was caused by Biden's 9% inflation, and now Democrats are trying to make it an issue.

谈到数据中心的电力问题，归根结底还是因为监管使得新建电力产能变得过于困难。

When it comes to the power for data centers, again, this all comes back to the fact that the regulations make it too hard to generate net new power.

所以，单靠需求增长本身并不是问题，只要你同时增加电力供应。

So again, scaling demand on its own, not a problem if you also scale supply of electricity.

事实上，规模化还能降低每个人的电价，因为规模效应能带来成本下降。

In fact, it brings down prices for everyone because scale creates economies of scale.

是的。

Yeah.

而且90%的水都被循环利用了，还有封闭式水循环系统，下面是我的建议。

And 90% of that water is reused, and there's closed water loop systems and Here's my pitch.

我认为总统应该设立一个3.04万亿美元、5000亿美元的税收权益基金，帮助消除五千万到一亿美国家庭的电费负担。

I think the president should try to create a $3.04, $500,000,000,000 tax equity fund and help eliminate the electricity costs of 50 to a 100,000,000 American households.

太棒了。

Amazing.

好吧，让我来给你算一笔账。

Well, here's the let me let me give you the math.

我们这个国家每年消耗大约4万亿千瓦时的电力。

So we consume in this country about 4,000,000,000,000 kilowatt hours of electricity.

平均每千瓦时的价格是18美分。

Average price is 18¢ a kilowatt hour.

所以每年在电力上的支出大约是7500亿美元。

So it's about, call it, $750,000,000,000 of spend on electricity every year.

其中三分之一，即2500亿美元，是居民用电。

One third of that, 250,000,000,000, is residential consumption.

另外三分之二，即5000亿美元，是工业和商业用电。

Two thirds of that, 500,000,000,000, is industrial and commercial consumption.

理论上，你可以将工业和商业用电的价格提高约50%，从而使美国所有居民用电免费。

Theoretically, you could increase the price on industrial and commercial consumption by, call it, 50% and make all residential electricity in The United States free.

如果你是居民用户，每个月都能获得一定额度的免费用电。

If you're a residential user, you get a cap of free electricity every month.

如果你的用电量超过了这个额度，就会被收费。

And if you use more than that cap, you get charged.

但在额度以内，你的用电是免费的，具体依据可能是你房屋的面积之类的，我不太清楚。

But below that cap, you're free based on whatever, square footage of your house, I don't know, whatever.

而在商业和工业方面，你之所以有动力建设私人电力系统，是因为这样可以降低你的成本。

And then on the commercial and industrial side, the reason you would then have an incentive to build private power systems would be that you can bring your cost down.

与其由电力公司集中供电，这种方式反而能推动商业和工业用户自行建设电力系统，从而增加美国整体的电力供应。

And instead of centralizing all of this with the utilities, what it can do is it can force a market demand for industrial and commercial users to build their own power systems, which would increase overall electricity supply in The United States.

数据中心只是冰山一角，但如果你把这个问题变成一个全工业领域的挑战，那么所有工业企业都不得不走这条路。

The data centers are the tip of the iceberg, but if you make this a pan industrial problem, then all of the industrial companies would have to take this path.

问题是，这并没有改变总的用电消耗模式。

The problem is it doesn't change the net consumption model.

如果你真的为每1500万户家庭安装太阳能和储能系统，就能从电网中减少一太瓦时的用电需求。

If you actually go to solar and storage for every 15,000,000 homes, you take a terawatt hour of demand off the grid.

这相当于你不需要再额外建设一太瓦时的电力，但你无法快速建成这些设施。

That's an extra terawatt hour that you don't need to build, but you can't build that quickly.

所以我喜欢太阳能和储能，因为它让这些人变得高度自给自足。

So the reason why I like solar and storage is you make these folks so self reliant.

现在，我们实际上比以往更快地赶上了中国。

Now all of a sudden, we're actually catching up to China faster than we would have otherwise.

你是在说居民用电吗？

You're talking about residentials?

是的。

Yeah.

你的想法很好，但问题是他们仍然在使用电网服务。

Your idea, which is a good one, the problem is they're still using grid services.

对。

Right.

或者他们其实不必如此。

Or they don't have to.

这正是重点。

That's the point.

比如，如果他们最终成为业主。

Like, if they end up Homeowners.

工业用户就会投资太阳能系统，你

Industrial users will then invest in solar systems You

你不能确定这一点。

don't know that for sure.

我的观点是，如今业主们仍在使用。

My point is today, the homeowners are using.

没有不使用电网的解决方案。

There is no solution to not using.

是的。

Yeah.

嗯，这里

Well, here's

如果工业电价上涨50%，你就创造了一种市场动力，推动他们进行投资。

If the industrial price goes up by 50%, you've now created a market force to drive them to make the investment.

我明白。

I understand.

特别是如果你已经，如果你已经

Particularly if you've if you've

我，我算过这笔账。

I I the math.

但我的观点是

But my point

首先是第一年的资本支出折旧，所以他们实际上能获得好处。

is this first you year CapEx depreciation, so they actually get a benefit.

而不是把所有的

And instead of putting all of the

你们这些搞建设的，根本就是在各说各话。

building Guys, you're talking through each other.

查马特的观点是，你仍然在对电网征税。

Chamat's point is that you're still taxing the grid.

他的提议为你的说法增加了一层含义。

His proposal adds another layer to what you're saying.

所以他同意你的观点，弗里德伯格。

So he's in agreement with you, Friedberg.

嘿。

Hey.

是的。

Yeah.

让企业多支付一点费用，而不是……并且让他们也接入电网。

Let's have the businesses pay a little extra and and not or, and let's have them also grid.

把它们从电网中移除以减少负担。

Take them off the grid to reduce it.

电网。

The grid.

美国有八千万栋独立住宅，每户安装电池组的成本大约是1.5万美元，就像基础电力公司正在做的那样。

Well, there's 80,000,000 freestanding homes in The United States, and it's about 15 k to put these battery packs in, like base power is doing.

你可能能把成本降到1万美元。

You can probably get it down to 10.

如果你简单算一笔账，这将涉及一万亿美元。

And if you just do back back of the envelope math, you're talking about a trillion dollars.

所以，大约花一千亿美元，你就能覆盖全国10%的地区。

So, basically, for a 100,000,000,000, you could do 10% of the country.

如果你在一段时间内逐步实施，我们就会不再担心电网问题，我认为这就是查马特的观点。

If you were to do that over some time period, we would have we we would stop worrying about the grid, I think, is Chamath's point.

你可以用电池来实现这一点。

And you could do it with battery.

你也可以用太阳能来实现。

You could do it solar.

不会完全不再担心电网，但杰森，为了更精确地表达你的意思，因为你整体方向非常正确，消费者会感受到这些问题的减轻。

Would not stop worrying about the grid, but, Jason, just to refine what you're saying because you're directionally very right, the consumers would feel less of these issues.

我们不必再担心如何为跟上中国而为太瓦时的电力提供担保，而是实际上获得了双重收益。

And instead of all of us worrying how to underwrite terawatt hours to catch up to China, we actually get a two for one.

消费者家庭不再有这种焦虑了。

The consumer homes don't have that anxiety anymore.

他们不再有电费账单。

They don't have the bill.

由于他们自己发电，已经脱离了电网。

And because they're generating their own power, they're off the grid.

这意味着，多余的太瓦时电力可以真正用于商业和工业应用，包括这些数据中心。

And now what that means is that extra terawatt hour can actually go to the commercial and industrial applications, including these data centers.

你说得对，弗里德伯格。

And you're right, Friedberg.

我们应该提高他们的电价。

We should raise their tariffs.

我只是觉得，接受每个人的情况都这么复杂，要复杂得多，也昂贵得多。

I just think it's a lot it's a lot more complicated and a lot more expensive to accept that everyone's complicated.

不。

No.

听好了。

Listen.

这些都不是免费的。

None of this is free.

这些都不是免费的。

None of it's free.

然而，我们拥有如此绝佳的AI机遇，值得这么做。

However, we have such an amazing opportunity with AI that it makes sense to do this.

我认为，这就是大局。

That, I think, is the big picture.

AI是一个巨大的机遇。

AI is such a huge opportunity.

有如此多的投资。

There's so much investment.

你为什么不这么做呢？

Why wouldn't you do this?

这其实是个问题。

It's a question.

如果我们想生活在一个富足的时代，想提升国家下半部分人群的生活水平，追求可负担性，那么人们的钱都花在哪里了？

And if we wanna live in the age of abundance and we wanna bring the bottom half of the country up and we want affordability, where do people spend their money?

食物、杂货、房租，还有电费和公用事业费用。

Food, groceries, their rent, and their electricity and the utilities.

所以，如果我们想找到一种直接的方式来实现这一点，而且对于那些关心环境和清洁能源的环保人士来说，这同样是一个双赢的局面。

So we if we wanna figure out a direct way to do this, and for all the hippie dippies who care about the environment and clean energy, this is a win there as well.

而且这不会从美国人的口袋或税收中掏钱。

And it doesn't come out of Americans' pockets and their taxes.

钱来自那些赚得盆满钵满的公司。

It comes out of corporations which are printing money.

如果你真想谈论财富再分配，这就是美国七大巨头企业回馈美国民众的一种方式。

If you wanna talk about redistribution of wealth, this is a way for the great American max seven corporations to give something back to Americans.

你之前提到过这个，对吧，特拉马斯？大概三四周前，你说过。

And you talked about this, right, Tramath, maybe three or four weeks ago that, hey.

也许这些大公司可以为美国人做些了不起的事情。

Maybe there would be some way for great corporations to do great things for Americans.

美国人不太在意水费，这其实是一件善事。

The fact that Americans don't think about their water bill that much is a is a mitzvah.

这是件好事。

It's a great thing.

如果他们不必操心电费呢？

Now if they didn't have to think about electricity?

哇。

Wow.

太棒了。

Amazing.

将来我们回望时，会希望看到这些利润惊人的大公司为美国房主挺身而出。

We will look back, and I think that we will want to have seen these big companies who are unbelievably profitable step up on behalf of American homeowners

是的

Yeah.

更多。

More.

有些人可能会说，

Some might say,

利润异常丰厚。

absurdly profitable.

我只是觉得，把‘如果我们能让全美所有家庭用电免费’这个想法，当作一次‘登月计划’式的使命，非常棒。

I just think I just think it's a it's a great mission to the moon style framing to say, what if we could make all residential electricity free in The United States?

如果在未来十年内我们能做到这一点，不仅能帮助美国人减轻经济负担，还能推动美国能源生产的分布式投资，并迫使企业承担起责任，而不是让资源集中化。

And over the next decade, if we can do that, not only do we help Americans with their wallet, but we actually can enable a distributed investment scheme in American energy production, and we force the corporations to step up and do their part rather than centralize it.

所以我特别喜欢这种定位：将美国居民用电免费作为一项核心福利。

So I I just like the framing of making this whole thing free, making residential electricity free in The US as a core benefit.

另一点是我们已经讨论过这个了。

The other thing is we've talked about this.

我之前已经提过几次了。

I've mentioned this a couple times before.

我认为，最显著的美元损失——虽然还不清楚具体何时发生——将来自这些公用事业公司。

I think the single biggest dollar short, it's not clear when, that one will be able to make will be on these utilities.

因为如果我们刚才讨论的任何一种情况成为现实，突然间私人房主成了自己的公用事业公司，而Freiburg C和I也成了自己的电力供应商，那公用事业公司该怎么办？

Because if any version of what we just talked about happens and all of a sudden you have private homeowners that are their own utility and then Freiburg C and I being their own power utility, what do the utilities do?

这些资本支出将何去何从？

What does all this CapEx go to?

他们如何偿还债券？

How do they pay back their bonds?

他们的费率基础会发生什么变化？

What happens to their rate base?

这是一个巨大的经济问题，我认为，只要我们刚才讨论的内容有哪怕一小部分成为现实，这个问题就会浮现。

This is a huge economic question that I think will come up if even a small modicum of what we just talked about materializes.

是的。

Yeah.

而且，你知道，人们每年享有一定数量的免费千瓦时，显然不可能无限免费，但这对美国来说将是非常具有变革性的。

And, you know, people having their first x number of kilowatt hours a year free, you know, obviously, you're not gonna have unlimited free, you know, that that's gonna be pretty transformative for America.

这很富有理想色彩。

It's aspirational.

我们都喜欢这个想法。

We all like the idea.

我喜欢这个想法。

I like it.

好的。

Okay.

OpenAI 达成了另一项计算资源交易。

OpenAI has struck another compute deal.

这笔交易价值超过100亿美元。

This one's worth over 10,000,000,000.

OpenAI 正从 Cerebras 购买计算能力。

OpenAI is buying compute capacity from Cerebras.

那是 C e r e b r a s。

That's c e r e b r a s.

他们承诺在未来三年内购买高达750兆瓦的算力。

They committed to purchase up to 750 megawatts over three years.

Cerebras 和 Rock 一样，生产用于AI推理的专用芯片。

Cerebras, like Rock, makes specialized chips for AI inference.

据报道称，Cerebras 正在洽谈以220亿美元的估值融资10亿美元，并预计今年内上市，可能在接下来的几个月内。

Cerebras is in talks to raise 1,000,000,000 at a $22,000,000,000 valuation according to reports, and they're expected to IPO this year, potentially in the next couple of months.

萨姆·沃尔顿是这家公司的投资者，所以他非常了解这家公司。

Sam Walton's an investor in the company, so he knows it well.

而且还有

And there

真的吗？

Is he really?

别说了。

Stop.

我我

I I

我的意思是，笔记里有写。

mean, it's in the notes.

笔记里有写。

It's in the notes.

我你

I You

如果你不确定真假，就不能说这些话。

can't say this stuff if you don't know if it's true.

笔记里有写。

It's in the notes.

笔记里有写。

It's in the notes.

拿去

Take it

发出去并张贴。

out and post it.

如果不是的话，

If it's not,

我被错误信息举报了。

I reported by the misinformation.

我不知道。

I don't know.

这可能是信息。

It could be information.

这可能是错误信息。

It could be misinformation.

特别提及。

Shout out.

好的。

Okay.

致信息领域的朋友们。

To our friends at the information.

这些是你们在摇滚领域的竞争对手。

These were your competitors at rock.

是吗？

Yeah?

查马克？

Chamac?

他们确实是。

They were.

同时代的人。

Contemporaries.

对。

Yeah.

他们非常出色。

They're fantastic.

我们俩是同时开始的。

We both started at the same time.

我们采取了略有不同的技术路线。

We took slightly different technical approaches.

Cerebras从一开始就提出的重大区别，这要归功于我的朋友安德鲁·费尔德曼，我要向他致意。

The big difference that what Cerebras said initially from the start, and this is my friend Andrew Feldman, I'll give him a shout out.

他是个非常聪明的人。

Very smart guy.

如果你看到一块芯片，实际上你看到的是晶圆。

If you'd see a chip, what you actually see is a wafer.

而一个晶圆上布满了无数小芯片。

And a wafer is full of little chips.

对吧？

Right?

然后你真的会把它们一个个撕下来。

And you you literally tear them off.

这就是为什么它们被称为芯片。

That's why they're called chips.

安德鲁说，不。

Andrew was like, no.

我就要做一个和晶圆一样大的超级大芯片。

I'm just gonna make one ginormous chip the size of a wafer.

所以如果你仔细看，尼克，也许你能找到一张它的图片。

And so if you look at it, Nick, maybe you can find a picture of it.

这些东西非常大。

These things are huge.

当时，人们并不真正理解Cerebras和安德鲁所构建的东西的强大之处。

And at the time, people were like, I don't think they really understood what the power of what Cerebras was building and what Andrew was building.

然后第一批真正加入的是阿联酋人，也就是MGX和G42。

And then the first folks that really got on board were the Emiratis, so MGX and G42.

当你开始运行这些模型时，你开始发现，天啊，它们的推理速度简直快得惊人。

And you started to run these models, and what you started to see was, man, their inference is blazing fast.

再回到我们上周讨论的内容，因为当你把计算和内存放在同一个地方时，物理距离带来的复杂性就被最小化了，因此你能获得惊人的速度。

Again, back to what we talked about last week, because when you have the compute and the memory in the same place, physical distances are now complexity is minimized, so you just have incredible speed.

我可以告诉你，OpenAI 正在积极寻求多元化，以便拥有多种推理路径。

What I can tell you is that OpenAI is aggressively trying to diversify so that they have multiple paths of inference available.

他们与 AMD 达成了巨额合作。

They have a huge deal with AMD.

他们与 NVIDIA 也达成了巨额合作。

Have a huge deal with NVIDIA.

他们现在与 Cerebras 也达成了巨额合作。

They now have a huge deal with Cerebras.

如果你仔细追踪这些线索，我相信，硅芯片领域将迎来一场复兴。

If you look at the Trail of Breadcrumbs, my belief, there's gonna be a renaissance in silicon.

年轻的小团队如果致力于设计专用芯片，未来十年到二十年内有望赚得盆满钵满。

Young, small teams building decode silicon can make a fortune over the next ten to twenty years.

这是一个巨大的机遇。

It's a huge opportunity.

这将会像当年的PC大战，戴尔对阵康柏，还有其他所有公司。

It's gonna be like the PC wars, Dell versus Compaq versus all of these companies.

这太令人兴奋了。

It's super exciting.

再次祝贺Cerebras。

Again, congrats to Cerebras.

他们当之无愧。

They deserve it.

有没有人认为计算需求会在某种程度上趋于平稳？

Is there any argument that compute needs will level off in some way?

我们会建造出如此多的算力，而软件也会变得更好。

We will have built so much capacity and the software will get better.

有人提到Anthropic作为OpenAI的竞争对手，在资源上受到限制，但我认为，顶尖AI用户普遍认为，如今的Claude比OpenAI的产品好得多。

There's been some talk about Anthropic being resource constrained as the contemporary to OpenAI, and I think there's pretty much uniformity amongst elite AI users that Claude is a much better product now than OpenAI.

而且模型也更优秀。

And the models are better.

应用程序更好了，但它们使用的资源更少了。

The applications are better, but they're doing it with less.

所以建设速度会不会放缓？

So could the build out be could it slow down?

这种可能性存在吗？还是在未来五到十年里，需求都会持续增长？

Is that a scenario that's out there, or is this always gonna be up until the right for the next five, ten years?

你的水晶球怎么说？

What's your crystal ball saying?

萨克斯，你还在吗？

Sax, are you still there?

我在这儿。

I'm here.

哦，好的。

Oh, okay.

为什么他的视频是关着的？

Why is he on why is his video off?

打开它。

Turn it on.

我的意思是，你可以重新打开摄像头，然后你说话的时候，我们就来回交替吧。

I mean, you can turn it back on and then when you talk, we'll just I guess, go back and forth.

我得说，Sax 还有很长的路要走。

Sax is still has a ways to go, I have to say.

好的。

Alright.

好了。

There you go.

好的。

Alright.

所以，不管怎样，Abbott

So, anyway, Abbott

这就是你最好的网络了吗？

This is your best Internet?

这个德克萨斯的石油结构，天哪。

This Texas oil structure is Oh my god.

萨克斯将会实现德克萨斯的反弹。

Saks is gonna do the Texas bounce back.

艾博特会派人去。

Abbott Abbott will send someone

立即过去。

over immediately there.

德克萨斯那边的响应也很迅速。

They're pretty responsive in Texas too.

我预测今年年底会出现一个大火的梗，叫‘德克萨斯反弹’，主角是一群亿万富翁。

My prediction is there'll be a big meme by the end of this year called the Texas bounce back, and it's a bunch of billionaires.

他们跳着小舞步，从德克萨斯跳回加利福尼亚。

They do a little jiggy as they dance back from Texas back to California.

不。

No.

不。

No.

这不会发生。

It ain't happening.

你会长期待在那里，

You're there for good,

好吧，事情是这样的。

Well, here's the thing.

嗯，好吧。

So Okay.

那我们不如直接谈谈BTA吧，因为事情正朝着这个方向发展。

Well, let's maybe we should just talk about BTA because this is where this is going.

我的意思是，听我说。

Well, mean, listen.

你搬家吗？

You move houses?

假设你搬家了，可能会遇到一点网络问题。

Say you move houses, could have a little Internet issue.

没关系。

It's okay.

我的意思是，我宁愿遇到网络问题，也不愿失去我全部的钱。

Well, I mean, I'd rather have an Internet issue and keep a 100% of my money than

损失5%。

Lose 5%.

损失5%再加上每年13.3%，而且这不是一次性税收。

Lose 5% plus 13.3 per year, and it's not gonna be a one time tax.

这是最大的谎言。

That's the biggest lie.

现在是5%，以后是5%，再之后就是10%。

It's 5% now, 5% later, 10% after that.

是的。

Yeah.

但你开启了退出税。

You But you open exit tax.

他们针对的是所有

They're coming for all

这些资产。

of it.

是的。

Yeah.

所以网络问题可以解决。

So the Internet can get fixed.

我们这么说吧，网络问题。

The Internet let's put it this way.

我的网络问题比加利福尼亚州的问题更容易解决。

My Internet can get fixed a lot more easily than California can.

哪十个州在宪法上禁止征收资产税？

What are the 10 states that constitutionally ban asset taxes?

是的。

Yeah.

因此，在这些州的宪法中，这是直接或隐含规定的，还是它们有修正案明确或隐含禁止征收财富税或资产税？到底是哪种情况？

So it's direct and implicit in those states' constitutions or they have an amendment to the constitution that makes it direct or implicit that you can't do a wealth tax or an asset cation Which are they?

阿拉斯加、佛罗里达、内华达、新罕布什尔、南达科他、田纳西、德克萨斯。

Alaska, Florida, Nevada, New Hampshire, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas.

根据Grok的说法，只有德克萨斯州明确禁止财富税。

According to Grok, only Texas explicitly bans wealth taxes.

对。

Yes.

没错。

That is correct.

但由于其他一些州的宪法规定，这种禁止是隐含的。

But because of some of the other state constitutions, it's implicit.

因此，德克萨斯州的宪法中明确禁止对财富或净资产征税。

So Texas has in their constitution a prohibition on quote tax on wealth or net worth.

华盛顿州有一个统一性条款，将收入视为财产，从而禁止不一致的税率。

Washington has a uniformity clause which treats income as property which bans nonuniform rates.

佛罗里达州宪法禁止任何形式的个人税。

Florida's constitution bans any sort of personal tax.

宾夕法尼亚州有严格的统一性条款，使得实行累进税率或在不同群体间区分税率成为不可能。

Pennsylvania has a strict uniformity clause which would make it impossible to have graduated tax rates or distinguish tax rates amongst populations.

伊利诺伊州宪法明确规定必须采用统一的非累进税率，因此无法进行差异化征税。

Illinois has a strict constitutional mandate for a flat non grad graduated tax rate, so you cannot do a separation.

而资产扣押被称为民事资产没收，这是一个独立的法律问题，但在新墨西哥州、内布拉斯加州和北卡罗来纳州等州，这意味着州政府实际上不能没收你的资产。

And then asset seizure is referred to as a civil asset forfeiture, which is a separate legal issue but implies in states like New Mexico, Nebraska, and North Carolina, you cannot actually have an asset taken from you by the state.

因此，有许多州在宪法层面对此类征税行为提供了保护。

So there there's a bunch of states that this would be constitutionally protected against.

弗里德伯格，你上周以来对这件事能否进入选票的看法有改变吗？

Friedberg, has your mind changed since last week about whether this is gonna make the ballot?

我不认为它能进入选票。

I I don't think it's gonna make the ballot.

我的意思是，你看。

I mean, look.

我觉得这并不是百分之百确定。

I I think it's not I'm not saying a 100%.

我的意思是，可能性略微偏向于它不会通过。

I'm saying slight overweight that it's not gonna get there.

所以你的观点没有任何变化吗？

So nothing has changed in your perspective?

我认为我们现在正经历一个逐步觉醒的过程，人们正在意识到资产没收税是对私有财产权的剥夺。

I think we're going through the rolling wake up process right now, which is people are waking up to the fact that the asset seizure tax is an elimination of private property rights.

这从根本上说就是你的观点，我在推文中也写过：一旦你通过立法投票赋予政府征收你税后资产的权利，你就等于在说你不再拥有私有财产，因为未来任何时候，政府都可以投票决定：我要拿走你的私有财产。这和所得税不同，所得税是你获得原本没有的收入时，政府从中抽取一定比例。

That fundamentally what you're saying, and I wrote this in my tweet, that private property now becomes public property because as soon as you give the government the right to collect your post tax assets through a legislative vote, you are basically saying that you no longer have private property because at any point in the future, the government can vote to say, I'm gonna take your private property, which is different than an income tax, which is when you earn something that you didn't have before and they take a percentage of your earnings of your income.

现在的说法是，在你赚到收入之后，这笔钱就成为你的私有财产，而政府却可以来拿走它。

The statement now is after you've made your income, it's now your private property, they can come and take it.

因此，这种区别在美国历史上从未存在过，我现在就要回应一下关于财产税的说法，因为人们总是问我：那财产税呢？

And so that is a distinction that has never existed in The United States and I will make the a retort right now to property tax because people always say to me, what about property tax?

房产税是对特定资产收取的服务费。

A property tax is a service fee on a particular specific asset.

所收取的税款用于为该资产提供服务，以提升其价值。

The money that is collected provides services for that asset to make it more valuable.

因此，你得到的道路、基础设施、治安、学校护理、学校等所有与房产税相关的服务，都会使该资产更有价值。

So you get roads, infrastructure, policing, school care, schools, all the stuff that comes with property tax makes that asset more.

你可以随时选择出售该房产，从而停止缴纳房产税。

And you have the option at any point you want to sell that property and stop paying that property tax.

你也可以随时选择降级房产，购买更便宜的房产，从而缴纳更低的税。

You have the option at any point to downgrade your property and get a cheaper property and pay it lower.

关于房产税，还有一个重要的点，那就是它的统一性。

And here's the other important point about property tax, it's uniform.

统一意味着在一个县内，每个人都缴纳相同比例的房产税率。

Uniform means that everyone pays the same percentage, the same property tax rate in a county.

而正在提议的这种资产征收税是一种人口税，意味着州或立法机构会定义特定的人群。

This asset seizure tax that's being proposed is a demographic tax, meaning that the state or the legislature defines a specific group of individuals.

在这种情况下，他们说的是任何净资产超过10亿美元的人，然后他们只能从这个特定群体中没收资产。

In this case, they're saying anyone with a net worth over $1,000,000,000, and then they can go and take assets from only that group.

这是一种非均匀征税。

That is non uniform taxation.

这意味着，我们首次根据个人的人口特征——无论你用什么标准来定义这个人，在这种情况下是他们的财富——来区别对待他们，而这不同于所得税，因为你要记住，当实行累进所得税率并说高收入者多缴税时，你征的是收入，而不是个人本身。

It means that for the first time, we're saying based on the demographics of a person, meaning whatever you wanna use to define that person, in this case, their wealth, you are going to be treated differently and that is different than an income tax because remember, when you have graduated income tax rates and you say high earners get taxed more, what you're taxing is the earnings, not the individual.

你并没有深入考察个人是否富有。

You're not looking through to the individual to determine whether or not they're wealthy.

你只是查看进来的是多少独立收入。

All you're doing is looking at the independent earnings amount that's coming in.

因此，统一性条款本应保护人们免受基于人口特征的歧视。

And so a uniformity clause is supposed to protect people from being demographically discriminated against.

你可能会不以为然，心想：‘谁在乎什么亿万富翁、劫富济贫呢？’

And you may roll your hand and be like, oh, who cares about the billionaires eat the rich?

这很好。

That's great.

但从根本上说，你是在赋予政府和立法机构一种能力，即在未来可以采用任何他们想要的人口统计定义，并从你税后财产中拿走任何他们想要的比例。

But fundamentally, you're giving the government, the legislature, the ability to, in the future, take any demographic definition they want and go in and take any percentage they want of after tax property from you.

这就是为什么这个问题如此令人担忧。

That is why this is so troubling.

我们可以整天谈论‘劫富济贫’，显然这个群体是有偏见的，但普通民众应该清楚，一旦你赋予立法机构歧视某个群体并随意拿走他们想要的任何人的财产的能力，

And we can harp all day long about eat the rich, and, obviously, this group is is biased, but the general population should be very much aware of the fact that as soon as you give a legislature the ability to discriminate a group and take whatever person that they want

先例就建立了。

precedent.

是的。

Yeah.

一旦设定，就无法回头了。

You've set and and it's over.

你现在已经把所有私有财产变成了公共财产，因为政府每年只是在许可你保留你的财产。

You've you're now now what you've done is you've made all private property public property because the government is simply giving you permission every year to keep your stuff.

政府甚至都不应该知道。

And the government shouldn't even know.

这就像他们闯进你的牧场，计算你有多少台拖拉机，你有一辆老款科尔维特，值多少钱，你的老款Roadster值多少，孙子们呢？

It's like they're they're coming on to your ranch and calculating how many tractors you got, how you got an old Corvette, how much is that worth, what's what's your old Roadster worth, grandkids?

珠宝的价值。

Jewelry worth.

麋鹿值多少钱？

How much moose is moose?

麋鹿嘛，是的。

Moose is yeah.

他们会拿走5%的麋鹿。

They're gonna take 5% of moose.

那是一匹非常值钱的纯种马。

Very valuable thoroughbred there.

绝对如此。

Absolutely.

没错。

He is.

会出现一个新的职业类别：税务评估员。

There'll be a new job category, tax appraiser.

税务评估员。

Tax appraisers.

然后你就搞不清楚敲门的是不是

And then you don't know whether the Knocking on

来你家敲门。

your door.

我来逛逛你的牧场，把所有东西都算一遍。

I'm here to walk around your ranch and calculate everything.

嗯哼。

Mhmm.

这并不能解决几何级债务问题。

And it doesn't solve the geometric debt problem.

对吧？

Right?

我们面临一个问题：如果加州继续以赤字方式资助各项开支，每年的赤字将达到300亿美元。

We have a problem where every year if we keep funding things with a deficit in California, we're looking at a 30,000,000,000 a year deficit.

我们有5万亿美元的债务，还有近10万亿美元的养老金义务尚未拨款。

We've got 500,000,000,000 of debt, and we have a nearly $1,000,000,000,000 pension obligation that is not funded.

是的。

Yes.

这笔钱必须从某个地方筹措，否则就无法支付。

That money is going to come from somewhere or it is not gonna get paid.

他们更有可能尽一切努力从某个地方筹措这笔钱，而不是不支付。

It is more likely that they're gonna do everything they possibly can to get that money from somewhere rather than not pay it.

某个地方。

Somewhere.

全国范围内的所有养老金义务也都面临同样的情况。

And the same is and the same is true for all pension obligations across the country.

伊利诺伊州也存在类似的大问题。

Illinois has a big problem like this as well.

那么，我可以接下你刚才提到的关于它不会进入投票的赌注吗？

Well, can I can I take the other side of that bet that bet you mentioned about it not getting on the ballot?

请说。

Please.

好的。

Yeah.

尽管说吧。

Go for it.

我始终不明白为什么它不会进入投票，也不明白为什么一旦进入投票它不会通过，这就是我离开的原因。

Well, I I've never understood why this wouldn't get on the ballot and I've never understood why once it's on the ballot it wouldn't pass which is why I left.

我们先来看第一个问题，关于它如何进入投票。

So let's take the first one of these in terms of it getting on the ballot.

你只需要大约800万美元来收集签名，85万个签名。

You only need about $8,000,000 to collect the signatures, 850,000 signatures.

在加利福尼亚州，这并不算多。

It's not that many in California.

加利福尼亚州绝对有数百万民众愿意狠狠打击亿万富翁。

There's definitely millions of people in California who would love to stick it to billionaires.

所以他们会去收集签名。

So they're gonna gather the signatures.

服务业国际工会有这笔钱。

The SEIU has the money.

因此，它唯一无法进入选票的方式，就是加文·纽森和政治机器用足够的政治利益收买服务业国际工会，让他们撤回提案。

The only way that it wouldn't therefore make the ballot is if Gavin Newsom Newsom and the political machine bribe the SEIU with enough political benefits that they'll withdraw it.

但服务业国际工会所要求的，不管是什么，都是300亿美元，我不确定加文·纽森是否随身带着这么多钱可以直接给他们。

But what the SEIU is asking for is whatever it is, the $30,000,000,000, and I don't know if Gavin Newsom has that much money laying around somewhere that he can just give them.

此外，如果你是服务业国际工会的负责人，我知道他叫戴夫·雷根。

Furthermore, if you're the guy running the SEIU, I understand his name is Dave Regan.

雷根。

Regan.

戴夫·雷根。

Dave Regan.

你得看看现在X平台上发生的事，你肯定会很高兴。

You gotta be looking at what's happening on x right now and you gotta be gleeful.

你看到这些亿万富翁一整天都在恐慌地发帖。

You got all these billionaires are panic tweeting all day long.

并不是一整天都这样。

It's not all day long.

我早上在浴室里发帖。

I tweet in the morning from the bathroom.

嗯，我们都在做。

Well, we're all doing

发帖。

it.

晨间散步。

Morning constitutional.

今天早上我发了一通基础推文。

I went on a base tweeting spree this morning.

所以如果你是这个叫雷根的人，你会想，天哪。

So if you're if you're this guy Regan, you're like, oh my god.

看看我有多大的筹码。

Look how much leverage I've got.

你知道的。

You know?

拧一下猪耳朵。

Twist a pig's ear.

看他尖叫。

Watch him squeal.

他拧了这些亿万富翁的耳朵，他们都尖叫起来了。

He's twisted these billionaire's ears, and they're all squealing.

那为什么你不通过花掉八百万美元，把它放到投票 ballot 上，然后与对方谈判来增加你的筹码呢？

So why wouldn't you increase your leverage by spending the $8,000,000, put it on the ballot, and then negotiate with

等等，那是个救赎的典故吗？

the Was that a was that a deliverance reference?

希望不是。

I hope not.

不是。

No.

这只是一个说法。

It's just an expression.

好的。

Okay.

无论如何，

In any event,

我不明白你为什么想到救赎。

I don't know why your mind's going to deliverance.

我知道你

I know you

请尖叫，尖叫，爬梯子。

squeal squeal a ladder, please.

也许你脑子里一直想着救赎。

Maybe you got deliverance on the brain.

是的。

Yeah.

也许吧。

Maybe I do.

萨克斯，我来告诉你为什么。

Sax, I'll tell you why.

我显然一直是个信徒。

So I've obviously been a believer.

我一直相信长期周期，这一点我已经说了很久了。

I've been a believer in the long cycle, and I've said this for a long time.

我们最终要么走向社会主义，要么走向某种法西斯主义。

We are gonna end up in either a socialist or some sort of fascist.

无论如何，这都是一个极权体制，目的是让我们摆脱已经持续一段时间的死亡螺旋。

Either way, it's a tyrannical system to get us out of the death spiral that we've been in for some time.

所以这是真的。

So that is true.

但我仍然希望保留我的个人能动性。

But I still wanna retain my sense of individual agency.

而且我认为，那些生活在加利福尼亚并真正关心此事的人，应该保持某种能动性，而不是放弃我们对这里结果产生影响的能力。

And I do think that those of us who are in California who actually care should retain some sense of agency rather than suspend our our ability to have an influence in the outcome here.

我认为我们需要坦率而诚实地讨论这将导致什么。

I think we need to speak openly and honestly about where this leads to.

让人们听到这些。

Let people hear it.

让加利福尼亚的人们自己做决定。

Let the people in California decide.

坦白说，如果我们已经尽到了责任——我们大声疾呼、清晰表达，向人们揭示了私有财产征税对全国每个人意味着什么，以及私有财产权在这个国家被剥夺的后果——而他们仍然支持它，那我就退出了。

And, frankly, if we've done our job, we've spoken loudly, we've spoken clearly, we've revealed to people where a private property seizure tax leads to for everyone in this country and the deletion of private property rights in this country Well and they still sign up to it, then I'm out.

好的。

Okay.

我明白。

I get it.

而且而且

And and

如果它是

I If it was

如果是百万富翁税，你早就退出了。

a cent of millionaire tax, you would have been out.

我同意我们应该反对它。

I agree that we should fight it.

我并不是宿命论者。

I'm not being fatalistic.

我不认为结果是注定的，但我不明白为什么它不会出现在选票上，因为这与你和BTA反对者的说服力毫无关系。

I don't think the outcome is predetermined, but I don't understand why it wouldn't get on the ballot because that that has nothing to do with how persuasive you and the opponents of BTA are.

这仅仅取决于SEIU、UHW是否会投入必要的资金，800万、1000万、1200万，不管多少，来收集签名。

It's just about whether SEIU, UHW will spend the requisite amount of money, 8,000,000, 10,000,000, 12,000,000, whatever, to gather the signatures.

而且，我的意思是，我们听说他们有钱。

And, I mean, we've heard they have the money.

对吧？

Right?

那他们为什么不呢？

So why wouldn't they?

这只会增强他们要求更多让步的筹码。

It only increases their leverage to demand more concessions.

他们有1400万美元用于收集签名，而估计他们需要500万到1500万美元之间。

They have $14,000,000 to gather the signatures, which the estimate was they'll need somewhere between 5 and 15.

所以他们有足够的资金来收集签名。

So they have the cash they need to gather the signatures.

这是一项

It's a

稳操胜券的赌注。

good bet.

他们大约有1000万美元用于广告宣传，而他们的估算显示，开展广告活动需要5000万到1亿美元。

And they have roughly $10,000,000 to run an ad campaign and their estimate is they need between 50 and $100,000,000 to run an ad campaign.

听起来是个不错的投资。

Sounds like a good investment.

下一步将是他们试图让这件事获得签署。

The next step will be that they'll try and get this thing signed up.

现在，民调数据显示，还有很大的影响空间。

Now the polling data, it shows that there's room for influence sacks.

所以我认为，如果人们能明白这件事的发展方向，并且看看的话。

So I do think that if people can understand where this is headed and look.

如果美国真的想加入这件事，那就祝你好运了。

If America wants to sign up to this, godspeed, man.

就像说，美国最终会陷入社会主义的死亡螺旋漏洞中。

Like, that's where America's gonna end up in the socialist death spiral loophole.

祝你好运。

Like, good luck.

玩得开心。

Have a good time.

我要去终点站建立基金会。

I'm going to Terminus to start the foundation.

我不知道那鬼地方在哪，但我先走了。

I don't know where the hell that is, but I'm out.

你走了。

You're out.

我也走了。

I'm out.

与此同时，我们能做的就是向它讲真话，努力照亮它，看看它会走向何方。

And in the meantime, all we can do is speak truth to it and try and shine light on it and see where it goes.

嘿。

Hey.

也许是第五十一个州，格陵兰。

Maybe fifty first state, Greenland.

也许我们就直接搞第五十一个州吧。

Maybe we'll just do the fifty first state.

听好了。

Look.

我不是说它一定会通过，不过我认为一旦上了选票，通过的可能性略大于不通过。

I'm not saying it's gonna pass, although I do think it's probably slightly more likely than not to pass once it's on the ballot.

我只是不明白为什么它上不了选票。

Just don't understand why it's not gonna be on the ballot.

一旦它在四月左右登上选票，我想会引发一场大恐慌，人们争相逃离，因为有很多人——这是我的观点——

And once it makes the ballot in let's say April, I think there's gonna be a big freak out and rush for the exits because there's a lot of people who you know, this is my theory is I'm gonna

是俄罗斯人，而不是那些富豪，人们还没意识到这一点。

beat It's the not Russians before the end the people don't realize this.

不是亿万富翁。

It's not billionaires.

我已经收到数十条短信、邮件和电话，来自创始人、商界领袖和CEO们，他们都说如果四月这事儿上了选票，他们就走人，因为大势已明。

I have received dozens of texts, emails, calls from people, founders, business leaders, CEOs that are out if in April this thing ends up on the ballot because they're like writings on the wall.

如果加利福尼亚的任何政治家都不愿意站出来谈论私有财产权，也没有人愿意说这会导致该州乃至整个国家陷入恶性循环，而没人会说出这一点，那么这只是时间问题，迟早会发生，而且迟早会波及到我。

If no politicians in California are willing to stand up and talk about private property rights and no one's willing to say, like, this leads to a death spiral for the state and potentially for the country and no one's gonna say that, then it's only a matter of time before this happens and it's only a matter of time before it hits me.

对。

Right.

所以每个人都正在寻找一个地方

And so everyone is looking for a place

给我一个关于这一点的数据点。

to you me a data point on that.

还有其他一些工会没有参与这项公投提案，但他们正在为2028年准备类似的提案，这些公投提案会更加严密，法律团队更强大，诸如此类，更有可能通过宪法审查。

There are other unions who weren't part of this ballot initiative who are preparing similar ones for 2028, and those ballot initiatives are gonna be more bulletproof, they're gonna be better lawyered, all that kind of stuff, more likely to survive constitutional challenges.

我认为，之所以存在对BTA的政治反对，仅仅是因为它是由一个工会——SEIU UHW——单独推动的。

The only reason why there is political opposition, I believe, to the BTA is because it was done by only one union, the SEIU, UHW.

这个人独自完成了这件事。

This guy did it on his own.

而所有这些征收所得的收益，几乎都会流向这一个工会或其相关事业。

And the loot, all the proceeds from this confiscation would go almost all of it would go just to this one union or its causes.

所以他们没有让其他工会分一杯羹。

So they didn't cut in the other unions on the loot.

他们没让其他工会沾光，没错。

They didn't wet That's right.

其他工会的嘴脸。

The other union's beaks.

因此，其他工会实际上反对这项措施，这就是为什么纽森和其他政客觉得没什么顾忌，敢公开表示反对。

As a result of that, the other unions are actually against it and this is why Newsom and the other politicians feel relatively unconstrained in saying they're opposed to it.

所以我认为，如果我们能在2026年击败这项措施，并不意味着它就此终结。

And that's why I think that if we defeat this in '26, it doesn't mean it's dead for good.

它只是会以新的形式在2028年卷土重来，但那时将获得更广泛的工会支持。

It just means it's gonna come back in a new form in '28, but with much more broad based union support.

所有工会都会一起行动。

All the unions are gonna do it together.

所以我只是觉得，这势在必行。

So I just think this is inevitable.

我认为，无论你是创始人，在退出前、退出后，还是正在走向退出的路上，我的建议是引用玛雅·安吉洛的话：当一个机构向你展示它的本性时，第一次就要相信它。

And I think that, you know, for all the founders and whether you're pre exit, post exit, or on your way to an exit, my advice would be that, to quote Maya Angelou, when a state shows you who they are, believe them the first time.

这个

This

这就是加利福尼亚的发展方向，无论是SEIU，还是2028年教师工会的行动，都将走向这个方向。

is the direction of travel in California, and whether it's SEIU or whatever they do in Teachers twenty eight, this is where it's going.

他们希望能看到一些东西。

They'd love to see something.

萨克斯，你提到的一点让我很有共鸣，那就是下一轮版本会由更专业的律师操刀，更加无懈可击。

Sachs, you said something that resonated with me, which is the next versions of this will be better lawyered and more bulletproof.

我已经让一团队的人研究过这个问题。

I've had a team of people looking at this.

这里最大的弱点在于，这是一个具有追溯效力的全新税种。

The thing that is the biggest weakness here is looking at the fact that this is a wholly new tax that is applied retroactively.

当你观察联邦最高法院在此类问题上的判例时，这将是人们最强有力的挑战点，也是最有可能证明这项政策不公、构成征收，并借助最高法院予以驳回的关键所在。

And when you look at the Supreme Court at the federal level, the case law on this, this is the strongest challenge that people will have, and this is where there is a preponderance of evidence in the favor of people saying that this is unjust and this is a taking and being able to use the Supreme Court to bat this back.

这将花费五到十年的时间来诉讼，因为案件会在法院里没完没了地拖下去。

Now that'll take five and ten years to litigate because it'll be there drawing itself through the courts forever.

但当你看到，如果这项法案通过，人们会从这个角度发起攻击时，我完全同意你的看法，萨克斯。

But when you look at the fact that that will be the angle of attack that people will take if this passes, I a 100% agree with you, Sachs.

如果这个工会足够聪明，他们本该说这项政策从2027年开始生效。

If this union were smart enough, what they would have done is say this is gonna start 2027.

它很可能能登上选票。

It probably would make the ballot.

它很可能通过，他们就能获得全部利益，而且法律上很难对它提出挑战。

It probably would pass, and they would get all the loot, and it would be very difficult to legally challenge this thing.

这个工会犯了一个巨大的错误，但在2028年、2030年或2032年，这个问题会再次浮现。

It was a huge miscalculation by that union, but in '28 or thirty or thirty two, this will rear its ugly head.

到那时，方案会设计得更完善，根本无从规避。

It will be better architected, and there will be no way around it.

到了那个时候，为什么还要人为地在1后面加上九个零设个界限呢？

And at that point, why create an artificial line at one with nine zeros after it?