本集简介
双语字幕
仅展示文本字幕，不包含中文音频；想边听边看，请使用 Bayt 播客 App。
好了，各位。
Alright, everybody.
欢迎回到全球排名第一的播客。
Welcome back to the number one podcast in the world.
Freebirds 正在拯救世界，创造新土豆，或者我不知道，也许是藜麦，或者一些抱子甘蓝。
Freebirds out saving the world, creating new potatoes or, I don't know, quinoa, maybe some brussels sprouts.
我不确定他现在在忙什么。
I'm not sure what he's working on at this point.
在他缺席的时候，他最亲密的朋友——他说，当我没在这里时，我希望布拉德·格斯特纳坐上这个位置。
In his place, his personal favorite bestie, well, he says that when I'm not here, I want Brad Gerstner in the seat.
欢迎回来。
Welcome back.
自从你在国情咨文演讲中被点名后，我们就没在播客上见过你了。
We haven't seen you on the pod since your shout out at the state of the union.
布拉德，能不能 briefly 带我们幕后看看，当你在国情咨文演讲中被总统点名时，是什么感觉？你事先知道会这样吗？
Take us behind the scenes for a brief moment here, Brad, of what it's like to get a shout out from POTUS at the state of did you know it was coming?
你事先排练过这个吗？
Did you choreograph to this thing?
你是事先排练过这个，还是更偏向即兴发挥？
Did you did you choreograph that, or was that more spontaneous?
我真的完全没料到会这样。
Honestly had no idea it was coming.
事实上，事后我才得知，原本演讲稿里并没有这一段，是总统临时加进去的，所以连我自己都觉得这太棒了。
And in fact, I I found out after the fact that it wasn't in the speech and the president added it to the speech, so I don't even think it was, you know That's few so awesome.
就在活动前几天，我们收到了参加国情咨文演讲的邀请，你知道，这是一项传统。
Days before going to happen, but we got an invite to the State of the Union and, you know, listen, it's an institution.
这个活动在我们国家已经每年举行两百五十年了。
This has happened every year for two hundred and fifty years in the country.
我以前从来没去过。
I've never been.
我以为他会提到特朗普账户的事，所以我觉得，如果我非得去一次，那这次就是最好的时机。
I thought I did know he was gonna talk about Trump accounts, so I figured if I'm ever going to go, that's the time to go.
而且我
And I
我得说，你知道，我就是对民主制度和民主传统情有独钟。
have to say, you know, I'm just a sucker for democratic institutions and democratic traditions.
那真是一个非凡的夜晚。
It it was an extraordinary night.
撇开关于民主党或共和党做了什么的头条新闻不谈，无论总统是民主党人还是共和党人，这种事情每年都会上演。
Set aside, you know, the headlines about what Democrats did or Republicans did, just the whether it's a Democrat president or Republican president that this happens every year.
你必须去报道国情咨文。
You have to go report on the state of the union.
所以那是一个特别的夜晚，我们提前吃了晚饭。
So it was a it was a special night, did dinner ahead of time.
我们在议事厅里。
We're in the chamber.
正如你们都知道的，议事厅非常小。
The chamber, as you all know, is very small.
所以，你知道，就在你右边的是第一家庭，还有贾里德和伊万卡。
And so, you know, just to your right was the First Family and and Jared and Ivanka.
所以，你知道，我们和其他人一样在那里观看，哇，那真是一个特别的时刻。
And so, you know, we were there as to observe like everybody else, and wow, it was it was quite a moment.
而且
And
我想说你做得非常好，因为你把你的真心传递给了全美国人民。
I wanna just say you did a great job because when you sent your heart out to all of America
我接收到了。
I took it.
我接收到了。
I took it.
我接收到了。
I took it.
我当时
I was
就像，我
like, I
把它发出去了。
sent it out.
所以你保持了正确的角度。
So you kept it at the right angle.
对。
Right.
对。
Right.
是的。
Yeah.
就是这样。
That's it.
只是多了一点，走出了美国。
Just got up a little bit extra and out of The United States.
不太顺利。
Been no bueno.
纳粹。
Nazi.
本来也不会好。
Would been no bueno.
那些会是一些极其种族主义的特朗普账号。
Those would be some super racist Trump accounts.
当你送出你的心时，别忘了拿着量角器和尺子。
Keep your protractor and your ruler out when you send your heart out.
好的。
Okay.
关于这个，杰森，最后一件事。
One final thing on it, Jason.
你知道，我们每天都有超过十万孩子注册这些特朗普账号。
You know, we're signing up over a 100,000 kids a day to these Trump accounts.
太棒了。
Fantastic.
我们
We
已经有数百万孩子领取了他们的账户。
have millions of kids who've already claimed their account.
在美国，有近三千万孩子有资格至少领取250美元，只要他们去申领账户即可。
We have nearly 30,000,000 kids in America who are eligible for at least $250 if they just go claim their account.
这些项目将在7月4日上线。
These things are gonna go live on July 4.
这实际上表明，国家在国情咨文之后加速了这一进程，因为总统真心相信，这是让美国主街的每个人都能参与资本主义、直接拥有美国伟大公司的方式。
And what it really showed, think, the country, it accelerated after the State of the Union because the president, you know, really believes this is a way to get everybody in Main Street America into the game of capitalism and get them all directly owning, you know, the great companies in America.
因此，从这个角度看，它凸显了该项目的重要性，这对我来说意义重大。
So it meant a lot to me in that regard that it highlights the importance of the program.
所以我非常感激总统不仅确保了这件事的落实，而且他还公开提及，这非常棒。
So I was deeply grateful to the president for not only making sure this happens, but the shout out is pretty cool.
你真棒，
Good for you,
兄弟。
bro.
我有个有趣的想法要告诉你。
I have an interesting idea for you.
我确定这个话题已经有人提过了，但在这整个关于全民基本收入的讨论中，有人对我说：‘哦，我知道你们朋友做的那些特朗普账户，就是那个‘投资美国’计划，它就像是全民基本收入的开端。’
I'm sure it's come up already, but with this whole discussion of UBI, somebody said to me, oh, you know, I really like these Trump accounts your friends did, the the Invest America because it's like the start of UBI.
我当时说：‘嗯，这并不是初衷，但我能理解。’
And I was like, well, that's not exactly the intention, but I get it.
随着国内财富差距加剧，这让很多人感到担忧，如果围绕股票设立一个捐赠承诺呢？
And with wealth disparity going on in the country that has a lot of people concerned, what if there was a giving pledge around equities?
人们可以自愿参与。
And people could opt into it.
他们不必非得参与。
They don't have to.
但如果有人，比如拉里和谢尔盖，或者扎克伯格说，我愿意承诺在未来二十年内将我5%的股份投入孩子们的账户，那该是多么美好而了不起的事情啊，哪怕只是获得哪怕十分之一、百分之一、千分之一的公司股份，也会产生巨大的影响。
But if somebody like, I don't know, Larry and Sergey or Zuckerberg said, I wanna pledge 5% of my shares to go into kids' accounts over the next twenty years, what an amazing beautiful thing that could be, and it would be incredibly material to get whatever it is, a tenth of a share, a hundredth of a share, a thousandth of a share of whatever company.
这个想法之前有人提过吗？
Has that come up yet as an idea?
我肯定这很明显。
I'm sure it's obvious.
对吧？
Right?
已经有人提过了。
It's come up.
敬请期待。
Stay tuned.
但在我们迈向7月4日的过程中，我们会有一些重磅公告。
But, we're going to have some banger announcements as we head towards July 4.
好的。
Alright.
我们来谈谈伊朗的战争。
Let's talk about the war in Iran.
显然，比起金融问题，生命、死亡、伊朗人民的自由才是更重要的议题。
Obviously, there are much more important issues than financial ones, life, death, the freedom of the people of Iran.
但我想，我们在讨论经济连锁反应、次级影响和初级影响方面具有独特的优势，过去五个交易日里市场出现了巨大波动。
But we're uniquely qualified, I think, to talk about the economic fallout, second order effects, first order effects, and there has been massive volatility over the last five trading days.
我们以布伦特原油为例，讨论将围绕这种原油展开。
Just talking about Brent crude oil, and we'll we'll key the discussion off of that type of oil.
周五，油价飙升至每桶84美元。
It spiked to $84 on Friday.
那是战争爆发的第七天。
That was day seven over the war.
周一涨到119美元，也就是战争的第十天。
119 on Monday, day 10.
之后又回落至84美元，周三三艘商用船只在海上被击中后，油价再次跃升至100美元。
Dropped back down to 84, jumped back up to 100 after three commercial ships were hit in the street on Wednesday.
顺便说一下，那些船并不是油轮。
Those ships, by the way, were not oil tankers.
它们运载的是普通货物。
They were carrying cargo.
它们分别悬挂泰国、日本和马绍尔群岛的旗帜。
They were flagged as Thai, Japanese, and Marshall Islands.
我们在录制时，布伦特原油价格为99美元。
Brent Crude, currently at 99 when we're taping this.
等你听这个播客时，价格肯定已经变了。
It'll be at something different by the time you listen to the pod, I'm sure.
但这一涨幅相当剧烈。
But it's quite a spike.
这是第二张图表，展示了价格随时间的波动情况。
And here's the second chart that shows you the spikes over time.
我那时已经足够年长，记得1978年的石油危机。
I was old enough to remember the oil shock of nineteen seventy eight.
我们当时得根据车牌号去加油站排队，还得等上一两个小时才能加到油。
We had to, like, get in line at the gas station based on your license plate number and, you had to wait an hour or two to get gas.
海湾战争期间，油价一度涨到100.20美元，后来是26美元。
Gulf War, obviously, it hit a $100.20 $26.
2008年，油价达到峰值，折合今天的价值是216美元。
2008, we hit kind of a peak moment, $216 in today's dollars.
那时正是关于‘峰值石油’的讨论高峰期。
That was the peak oil discussion.
中国的需求飙升到不可思议的程度。
Demand from China went off the charts.
当俄罗斯入侵乌克兰时，油价涨到了115美元，折合今天的价值是133美元。
When Russia invaded Ukraine, we hit a 115, which would be a 133 in today's dollars.
所以这并不是新鲜事，但确实意义重大。
So this is not new, but it is significant.
今日最新消息，伊朗新任最高领袖穆贾塔巴表示，他将保持海峡关闭，作为施压敌人的手段。
And breaking news today, Iran's new supreme leader, Mojtaba, says he's keeping the strait closed as a tool to pressure the enemy.
《华尔街日报》周四援引中东研究所的一位资深研究员的话称，重新开放海峡需要地面部队，Polymarket。
Wall Street Journal on Thursday quoted a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute saying that reopening the strait will require ground troops Polymarket.
美国军队在3月前进入伊朗的概率为27%，到年底则为57%。
27% chance that US forces enter Iran by the March and 57% by the end of the year.
因此，Polymarket的专家们认为我们将会派地面部队进驻。
So the Sharps over at Polymarket believe we will have boots on the ground.
让我先说到这里。
Let me stop there.
布拉德，当油价达到这种水平，同时我们面临这种不确定性时，你认为会发生什么？
Brad, your thoughts on what happens when oil hits this kind of number, and we have this uncertainty of, hey.
这种情况可能再持续两周，也可能持续六个月。
This could last, you know, two more weeks, or it could last six months.
也可能持续一年。
It could last a year.
似乎没人知道。
Nobody seems to know.
而它如何解决，我们刚刚和格雷厄姆·艾利森进行了一次非常有趣的对话，它的解决方式也是一个重大未知数。
And how it resolves, we just had a really interesting talk with Graham Allison, how it resolves is also a major unknown.
你怎么看？
Your thoughts?
没错。
Right.
首先，显然随着油价上涨，直接成本会大幅增加。
The so first is, obviously there are huge direct costs as oil prices go up.
对吧？
Right?
石油是许多消费品和企业产品的组成部分，它还会打击消费者信心和企业信心。
Oil is a component of a lot of consumer, you know, and enterprise products and it also hurts consumer confidence, enterprise confidence.
高盛今天发布了一些分析，更新了经济的连锁影响。
Goldman Sachs is out today with some analysis where they updated kind of the economic knock on effects.
对吧？
Right?
因此，他们将今年的PCE通胀预测从2.1%上调至2.9%，对吧。
So they raised their PCE inflation forecast from 2.1 to 2.9, right, for the year.
这个增幅相当大，对吧，尤其是在他们预期的PCE通胀方面。
So that's a huge jump, right, in terms of their expected, you know, PCE inflation.
核心PCE，即剔除石油影响的部分，他们将其预测从2.2%上调至2.4%。
Core PCE, which excludes oil, okay, is they forecasted up from 2.2 to 2.4.
所以他们认为，即使排除了石油的直接价格影响，其连锁效应仍会导致通胀略有上升。
So they're saying even if you excluded the direct price of oil, the knock on effects is gonna cause a little more inflation.
他们将今年的GDP预测下调了30个基点，并且预计今年失业率也将因此上升。
They lowered their GDP forecast by 30 basis points for the year, and they also expect higher unemployment as a result of this for the year.
所有这些因素都在拖累市场情绪。
All of that is weighing on the sentiment of the market.
记得几个月前，标普500的市盈率还高达24倍。
Remember just a few months ago, the S and P peaked at 24 times.
现在我们是21倍，但我认为市场可能有点判断失误。
Now we're at 21 times, but I think the market may be getting a little bit wrong.
对吧？
Right?
特朗普主义，你知道的，我上周发过推文谈过这个。
The Trump doctrine, you know, I tweeted about this last week.
我认为特朗普主义比新保守主义更务实。
I think the Trump doctrine is far more pragmatic than the neocon doctrine.
对吧？
Right?
我认为特朗普的目标非常有限。
I think we I think Trump has a very limited set of goals.
他只想摧毁和削弱对美国国家安全利益的威胁。
He wants to destroy and degrade threats to America's national security interests.
他并不想推广民主。
He doesn't wanna spread democracy.
所以我怀疑这些影响的持续时间较短，但目前市场正经历一些类似于阿富汗和伊拉克战争后的创伤后应激反应，担心我们是否会陷入泥潭。
So my suspicion is that these impacts are shorter duration, but right now, the market's having a little bit of post traumatic stress flashbacks to Afghanistan and Iraq and wondering if we might be wandering into a quagmire.
好的。
Alright.
而且就政策而言，他确实表示希望当地人民起来反抗，这可能是在咬文嚼字，但我认为他实际上支持政权更迭。
And just he may not in terms of the doctrine, he has said he wants to see the people rise up there, so might be splitting hairs, but I think he might actually be for regime change.
他说他希望这个政权
He says he wants the regime
发生变化。
to change.
平等而言，我不认为他介意人民自己推动这一变化。
Being equal, I don't think he minds if the people bring it to themselves.
问题是，美国会不会派兵介入，像切尼主义那样试图推广麦迪逊式民主，而我认为这截然不同。
The question is whether The US is gonna, you know, put boots on the ground and try to spread Madisonian democracy like like the Cheney doctrine was, and I think this is very different.
Semafor，你对经济影响以及关于伊朗战争的其他看法是什么？
Semafor, your take on the economic impact and, you know, and any other things you'd like to add about the war in Iran?
我认为本周我看到的最重要的一点是，特朗普总统被问及这场战争时，他说这场战争会很快结束。
I think the most important thing that I saw this week was, I think, president Trump was asked about the war, and he said the war would be over very soon.
市场有什么反应？
What did the market do?
市场几乎在一瞬间就把油价从每桶1.20美元推高到了90美元。
The market literally took oil from $1.20 a barrel to 90 a barrel almost in, you know, a nanosecond.
我认为这在很大程度上说明了大家的看法：如果市场根本不相信，油价根本不会动。
I think that that sort of tells you what everybody thinks To the extent that the market really didn't believe it, oil would not have budged.
相反，如果市场不以为然，油价反而会回落，你可能会看到油价维持在120美元左右，甚至可能略升。
And if anything, it would have faded those comments, and you probably would have seen oil stay at around 120 or even go slightly higher.
因此，这种即时反应表明，许多精明的投资者认为，这场冲突不可能长期持续。
So the fact that there was this reflexive move, I think, is a belief by a lot of the Sharps that there is no path to a sustained conflict.
伊朗方面显然会有很多强硬表态，因为他们需要保全面子，并且会希望为下一任领导人创造最佳的执政条件。
There's gonna be a lot of chest bumping from the Iranians, obviously, because they need to save face, and they will wanna set up whoever comes next to have the most successful chance of governing.
所以我的看法是，这是一次试探性举动。
So my perspective is that was a trial balloon.
我认为这证实了大家的普遍看法，即这将是一场短暂的事件。
I think it validated what everybody thought, which is that this is gonna be a short run thing.
我同意这一点。
I agree with that.
下游影响方面，我认为布拉德说的没错，这可能会导致一些短期的价格飙升。
The downstream impact is, I think, correct what Brad said, which is it could show up in some short term price spikes.
但在3月11日，你看到了克里斯·赖特所做的事——总统启动了国际能源署的多个成员国。
But then on March 11, you saw what Chris Wright did, which is the president activated a whole bunch of member countries in the IEA.
我认为克里斯释放了1.72亿桶石油。
And I think Chris released a 172,000,000 barrels.
我认为这次协调释放的石油总量约为4亿桶。
I think there's a coordinated release of about 400,000,000 barrels of petroleum.
这将缓解任何价格飙升的影响。
That's gonna dampen the effect of any price spike.
此外，据估计，战略储备中可能还有多达十亿桶左右的石油可供释放。
On top of that, I think the estimate is there's probably another billion or so more barrels that one could release out of strategic stockpiles.
所以我认为，这两点结合起来描绘出一幅图景：最糟糕的时期可能已经过去，现在的问题是如何找到退出路径。
So I think that both of these two things together kind of paint a picture that probably the worst is behind us, and I think now it's about finding the off ramp.
萨克斯，你的看法呢？
Sachs, your thoughts?
嗯，我同意我们应该努力找到退出路径。
Well, I agree that we should try to find the off ramp.
我的意思是，我同意布拉德和哈梅内伊关于这一点的看法。
I mean, agree with what Brad and Khamenei said about that.
你看，我们已经严重削弱了伊朗的能力。
Look, we've degraded Iranian capabilities massively.
他们的陆军、海军和空军都已被摧毁。
Their army, navy, air force all been destroyed.
现在是宣布胜利并撤出的好时机，这显然是市场希望看到的。
This is a good time to declare victory and get out, and that is clearly what the markets would like to see.
然而，你看到有一派人士——我可以说主要是但不完全是共和党人——想要升级战争，他们呼吁派遣地面部队、政权更迭，或者只是希望对伊朗的打击持续下去。
You are seeing, however, a faction of of people, I'd say largely but not exclusively in the Republican Party, who wanna escalate the war and who are calling for things like ground troops or regime change or they simply want the pounding of Iran to just keep going on and on.
我看到《华尔街日报》上有一篇社论持这种观点，认为我们不应该试图找到退出路径。
I saw an op ed in The Wall Street Journal to that effect that we shouldn't try and find an off ramp.
我们就这样继续下去吧。
We should just keep going with this.
我想先列出一些升级策略可能带来的风险。
And I just wanna lay out, I think, some of the risks of what an escalatory approach could entail.
首先，我们都看到霍尔木兹海峡目前已被封锁。
So first of all, we're all seeing that the the Strait Of Hormuz are closed right now.
我们不希望这种情况持续太久。
We don't want that to persist longer than it has to.
但还有比这更糟糕的结果。
But there are actually worse outcomes than that.
如果伊朗遭到打击，其石油和天然气基础设施受损，他们已经表示将对海湾国家实施对等报复。
So if the Iranians get hit, if their oil and gas infrastructure gets hit, they've already said they're gonna engage in tit for tat retaliation against the Gulf States.
我们最近看到伊朗炸毁了阿曼的一个大型石油储油设施。
And we saw there was recently the Iranians blew up this giant oil depot in Oman.
你看到过那些画面吧。
You saw some of those images.
他们可能会继续针对海湾国家的石油和天然气基础设施进行攻击。
They could continue to target the oil and gas infrastructure across the Gulf States.
如果这种情况发生，即使海峡重新开放也无济于事，因为中东的石油和天然气生产将无法恢复。
And if that happens, it won't really matter if the straits get reopened because you won't be able to restart oil and gas production in The Middle East.
因此，我认为，这将是升级行动可能带来的更糟糕的结果。
So that would be, I think, a much worse outcome that could result from escalation.
此外，我认为还有一个更严重的后果：该地区极度依赖海水淡化厂。
Furthermore, there's an even worse, I think, scenario from there which is the region is very dependent on desalination plants.
我认为利雅得大约70%的用水来自海水淡化。
I think something like 70% of Riyadh gets their water from desalination.
我认为阿拉伯半岛上有大约一亿人依赖海水淡化获取饮用水。
I think it's something like a 100,000,000 people on the Arabian Peninsula that get their water from desal.
我的意思是，这基本上就是一片沙漠。
I mean, it's basically a desert.
对吧？
Right?
这些海水淡化厂是容易被攻击的目标。
And those desal plants are soft targets.
你已经看到，伊朗曾有一座海水淡化厂遭到袭击，随后伊朗又以牙还牙地袭击了另一座海水淡化厂。
You already saw there was I think there was one desal plant in Iran that got hit and then it caused Iran again tit for tat to hit a desal plant.
我觉得那次袭击发生在科威特，也可能记错了。
I think it was in Kuwait, could be off about that.
但无论如何，如果这种破坏持续下去，你可能会让整个海湾地区几乎无法居住。
But in any event, if you see that type of destruction continue, you could literally render The Gulf almost uninhabitable.
我的意思是，你将无法为一亿人提供足够的水源，人类在没有水的情况下根本无法长期生存。
I mean, you're just not gonna have enough water for 100,000,000 people and human beings just cannot survive very long without water.
因此，这将是一个真正灾难性的局面，我们谈论的是从经济和人道主义两个层面摧毁海湾国家。
So that would be a truly catastrophic scenario, and we're talking about destroying the Gulf States economically and then also from a humanitarian perspective.
所以，当听到有人鼓吹或主张升级冲突时，我们必须考虑到这些因素。
So I think we have to take things like this into account when you hear people preaching for or advocating for escalation.
你还得考虑这对以色列造成的影响。
You also have to, I think, consider the impacts on on Israel.
我的意思是，很难确切知道以色列现在遭受了多少破坏。
I mean, it's hard to know exactly how much damage Israel is taking right now.
社交媒体上一片寂静。
There's a social media blackout.
但开始传出的消息是，以色列遭受的打击比历史上任何一次都要严重。
But what you're starting to hear trickle out is that Israel's getting hit harder than they've ever been hit before in their history.
我们才刚刚进入这场冲突两周。
We're only two weeks into this.
如果这场战争持续数周甚至数月，以色列可能会被彻底摧毁。
If this war continues for weeks or months, then Israel could just be destroyed.
它的很大一部分地区都受到了影响。
There are very large parts of it.
我认为以色列比海湾国家更难被摧毁。
Now I think Israel is a harder target than the Gulf States.
他们的基础设施更加坚固。
Their infrastructure is more hardened.
而且，它们离得更远。
Also, they're further away.
海湾国家容易受到无人机和短程导弹的攻击，而以色列主要面临的是远程导弹的威胁。
The Gulf States are vulnerable to drones and short range missiles, whereas Israel is mainly vulnerable to long range missiles.
不过，如果他们的防空系统尚未耗尽，迟早会因持续攻击而耗尽，以色列可能会遭到严重破坏。
Nonetheless, at some point, their air defenses could become exhausted if it hasn't happened already and Israel could get seriously destroyed.
然后你必须担心以色列会通过考虑使用核武器来升级战争，这将真正带来灾难性后果。
And then you have to worry about Israel escalating the war by contemplating using a nuclear weapon, which would truly be catastrophic.
所以这里有很多可能性，许多令人恐惧的场景，关于战争升级可能走向何方。
So there's a lot of scenarios here, a lot of really frightening scenarios about where escalation could lead.
尽管美国比伊朗强大得多，但它们实际上对海湾国家的经济命运，甚至可能对这些国家的宜居性，拥有类似‘死人开关’的控制权。
And even though The United States is a much more powerful country than Iran, they essentially have a dead man switch over the economic fate of the Gulf States and even potentially beyond that, you know, the habitability of some of these these countries.
因此，我确实认为现在是宣布胜利的好时机。
So I do tend to think that this is a good time to declare victory.
我认为，布拉德，你说得对，总统从未说过促进民主是他的目标之一。
I think, Brad, you're right that the president has never said that democracy promotion is one of his objectives.
是的，杰·卡尔，显然，如果人民起义并选择新政权，所有人都会欢迎，但我们从未表示过这是我们必须实现的目标。
Yes, Jay Cal, obviously, everyone would welcome if the people rose up and chose a new regime, but that's not something that we've said we have to accomplish.
现在正是评估我们当前处境并试图寻找退出路径的好时机。
And this would be a really good time to take stock of where we are and try, I think, to seek an off ramp.
你看，如果升级不会带来任何好的结果，你就得考虑：该如何降级呢？
And look, if escalation doesn't lead anywhere good, then you have to think about, well, how do you deescalate?
而降级，我认为涉及与伊朗达成某种停火协议或谈判解决方案，我们可以进一步讨论具体形式。
And deescalation, I think, involves reaching some sort of ceasefire agreement or some sort of negotiated settlement with Iran, and we can get into more of what that looks like.
但我认为大局在于，如果升级可能导向这些可怕的后果，那么这显然不是正确的做法。
But I think that's the big picture is that if escalation could lead in all these horrifying directions, then I think that's not the right approach.
你必须考虑降级。
You have to look at de escalation.
杰。
J.
卡尔，你对此怎么看？
Cal, where are you on this?
很复杂。
Complicated.
我对政权更迭有自己的看法。
I have my personal feelings on regime change.
由于我们没有情报，而摩萨德、中情局和特朗普掌握着这些信息，我认为特朗普只有在成功概率极高且有退出方案的情况下才会这么做。
And since we don't have the information, the Mossad and the CIA and Trump has, I do think Trump would only do this if he had a very high probability of success and an off ramp.
然而，目前退出方案前景不明，局势可能非常混乱。
However, it's not looking good with the off ramp right now, and it could be quite chaotic.
我认为，如果新保守派得逞，而Polymarket上的人们是对的，那些认为有57%可能性会派地面部队的专家们说对了，这可能是特朗普第二任期的终结。
I think if the neocons get their way and the people on Polymarket are correct, the Sharps who say 57% chance we'll have boots on the ground, I think this is kind of the end of Trump's second term.
如果把特朗普及其政府所犯的一系列错误综合起来看，这些错误恰恰是人们当初投票支持他的核心原因。
And if you were to put together the series of mistakes that he's made and the administration's made, they're really at the heart of why people voted for him.
你想想，像这样发动一场针对伊朗的战争。
You take starting a war like this, specifically with Iran.
这正是我们当初被告知要投票支持特朗普的原因。
That's what we were told was the reason to vote for president Trump.
他不会让我们走上这条道路。
He was not going to take us down this path.
他不会冒险引发第三次世界大战。
He was not going to risk World War three.
他不会冒险让核战争成为可能，正如萨克斯正确指出的那样。
He was not gonna risk a nuclear possibility as as Sachs correctly points out.
现在，所有MAGA支持者，比如塔克、MTG、罗根、马特·沃尔什、梅根·凯利，都对此义愤填膺，认为这是MAGA运动的终结，是一次巨大的背叛。
And now you have all the MAGA supporters from, you know, Tucker to MTG to Rogan, Matt Walsh, Megyn Kelly.
他们所有人都对这件事怒不可遏，认为这是MAGA的末日，是一次巨大的背叛。
They are all up in arms about this is the end of MAGA, and this is, you know, a massive betrayal.
还有一件背叛事件，就是特朗普没有公开爱泼斯坦的文件。
There's the one b betrayal where Trump wouldn't release the Epstein files.
我们暂且搁置这一点，因为我认为这远不如发动第三次世界大战来得重要。
We'll put that aside because I don't think that's as important as starting World War three.
当然，还有我们在这档播客中多次谈到的、ICE特工那种疯狂且不必要的残忍行为，而他通过解雇克里斯蒂·诺姆已经纠正了这一点。
And then, obviously, the insane unnecessary cruelty we talked about many times on this podcast of ICE agents, which he has corrected by getting rid of Christy Nome.
所以你把这些事情结合起来看。
So you you start putting these things together.
如果这种情况再持续六个月，基本上会导致民主党在中期选举中大获全胜。
If this continues for another six months, it's basically going to result in the Democrats doing a clean sweep in the midterms.
这是我认为共和党人真正需要仔细看看的图表，看看他们有多 misguided。
Here's the chart that I think, you know, the Republicans really need to look at at how misguided, you know, this all is.
这张图表应该令人极度恐惧。
This is the chart that should be absolutely terrifying.
没人想要这场战争，或者只有极少数人想要，除了新保守派、伊朗人和以色列人。
Nobody wanted this war or very few people wanted it besides the neo cons and the people of Iran probably and the Israelis.
但民主党现在大获全胜的概率已经上升到45%。
But the chances of the Democrats sweeping now is up to 45%.
这刚刚发生。
This just happened.
如果民主党大获全胜，他们将在2028年继续获胜，而MAGA和特朗普2.0的整个议程都将化为乌有。
The Democrats are gonna sweep, then then they're gonna win in 2028, and the entire agenda of MAGA and Trump's two point o will be gone.
然后你看看完全忽视了工人阶级，正如你所指出的，通胀率超过3%的可能性很大。
And then you look at just absolutely ignoring the working man, inflation going up above 3%, as you pointed out, is a a likelihood.
布拉德。
Brad.
失业率在缓慢上升，虽然仍然很低，但上升了10%，值得关注。
Unemployment ticking up, still very low, but it's ticked up 10% worth keeping an eye on.
这些外交事务对美国民众来说是最不重要的。
These foreign affairs things are the least important to the American people.
在优先事项列表中排在非常靠后的位置。
It's very, very low on the list of priorities.
人们正在关注特朗普以及他们认为的他家族致富和各种商业交易。
And people are looking at Trump and what they believe is the enriching of his family and all these business deals.
天啊，你这是把所有问题都堆在一起了。
Man, you're in kitchen sinking it.
这正是我刚才在想的。
It's literally what I was thinking.
你把所有事情都扯进来了。
You're bringing everything.
我一、二、三、四。
I I one two three four.
第一，他发动了所有人都说不该打的战争，而这正是我们该选他的原因。
Number one, doing the war that everybody said he should not do include and that that was why we should vote for him.
第二，爱泼斯坦文件。
Number two, Epstein files.
第三，移民与海关执法局的残酷行为。
Number three, the ICE cruelty.
第四，没有为那些不持有股票的美国劳动者着想。
And number four, not working for the American working man who doesn't own equities.
这四点。
Those are four.
一、二、三、四。
One two three four.
这可不是什么大杂烩。
It's not a kitchen sink.
这并不是我个人对此的感受。
This is not my personal feelings on this.
这是我对局势的评估。
This is my assessment of the situation.
如果他不能尽快找到退出途径，他们在中期选举中将失去两院控制权。
If he doesn't find an off ramp quickly, they're going to lose both houses in the midterms.
我认为，这是特朗普真正需要考虑的事情，我相信他会考虑找到一个退出途径。
That's, I think, the thing Trump needs to really consider, and I think he will consider it that he's gonna find an off ramp.
对。
Right.
这正是话题所在。
That is the topic.
话题是我们是否会找到退出途径，还是找不到退出途径？
The topic was are we gonna find an off ramp or not find an off ramp?
而且这一点
And this
这就是萨克斯的观点，他认为存在一种危险，即新保守派和其他人正在主张扩大军事介入，派地面部队。
is what And I think Saks made the argument that there's danger that neocons and others are arguing that we expand, put boots on the ground.
你说如果他不这么做，就会是一场灾难。
You're saying if he doesn't, it'll be a disaster.
查马斯和我都认为他会这么做。
Chamath and I both say he will.
对吧？
Right?
所以，不会。
And so the No.
等等。
Wait.
等等。
Wait.
会怎样？
Will what?
他会在近期找到一个退出途径，因为特朗普主义与新保守主义不同。
He will find an off ramp over, you know, in the nearer term because the Trump doctrine is not the neocon doctrine.
尽管人们总想谈论伊朗伊朗伊朗，但正如我上周解释的，我认为这其实是关于中国中国中国。
As much as people wanna talk about Iran Iran Iran, I think as I explained last week, I think this is about China China China.
而且你必须记住，这个月底，他将在中国与习近平进行关键的三天会晤。
And you have to remember, at the end of this month, he has a pivotal three days with Xi Jinping in China.
这将是主导世界的两个超级大国之间一次绝对具有历史意义的会晤。
This is going to be an absolutely historic convening of the two superpowers that run the world.
一方是我们，我们是既成大国；另一方是中国，它希望重新崛起。
One, which is us, we are the established, and one which is China who wants to be reascended.
我敢打赌，习近平在那三天里将有巨大的动力去谈判达成一项重大协议，并为自己做出一些历史性的举动。
And I would bet dollars to donuts that there is going to be an enormous incentive for Xi to negotiate a grand bargain in those three days and do something historic for himself.
而且我认为，如果总统认为这能创造筹码，他就会加以利用。
And I think that the president will use that if he thinks that it creates leverage.
我觉得这是一个非常好的见解。
I think it's it's a great insight.
霍尔木兹海峡如何才能打开？
How does the Strait Of Hormuz open?
如果这场战争在以色列持续下去，而这似乎是当前的主导因素，如果以色列继续对伊朗施压，我们该如何再次打开霍尔木兹海峡？
If this war is dragging on in Israel, which seems to be the driving force in this, if Israel keeps it up with Iran, how do we ever get the Strait open again?
我认为出路是美国宣布胜利，按照萨克斯的说法去做，然后说：听好了。
Well, I think the off ramp is that The United States, you know, declares victory, does what Sachs says, and says, listen.
我们已经削弱并摧毁了目标。
We degraded and we destroyed.
我们来这里就是为了这个目的。
That's what we came here to do.
我们来这里并不是为了进行什么民主实验。
We did not come here for some experiment in in democracy.
我们衷心祝愿伊朗人民能够完成他们需要做的事情。
We wish the best to the Iranian people to do the things they need to do.
如果伊朗不退让，在美国发表声明后仍继续摧毁通过狭窄海峡的货轮，我认为伊朗的邻国、以色列及其他国家将深度介入伊朗问题，因为这关乎他们的利益。
And if Iran does not back down, if after that declaration Iran continues to destroy cargo containers moving through the narrow straits, I think you're going to see Iran's neighbors and Israel and others get very involved as it pertains to Iran because it's in their interest.
听好了。
Listen.
美国每天生产两千万桶石油，每天消耗两千万桶石油。
The United States produces 20,000,000 barrels of oil a day, and we consume 20,000,000 barrels a day.
这对美国来说只是个小问题。
This is a this is a modest problem for The United States.
但对中国来说，这是个大问题。
This is a massive problem for China.
对亚洲来说，这也是个大问题。
This is a massive problem for Asia.
对所有正在努力躲避伊朗导弹的海湾国家朋友来说，这都是个大问题。
This is a massive problem for all of our friends in The Gulf who are trying to dodge Iranian missiles right now.
因此，如果美国不在场，世界上会有许多人挺身而出对付伊朗，因为我们自己能照顾好自己。
So there are a lot of people in the world who will take up arms to deal with the Iranians if The United States isn't there because we can take care of ourselves.
你的立场，布拉德，我确认一下，是我们将在未来三十天内结束这场战争。
Your position, Brad, just to confirm it, is we are going to leave the war in the next thirty days.
如果海峡没有开放，那么中国、印度以及受影响的所有海湾国家将会保护它。
And then if the Straits are not open, then China, India, and all the Gulf countries that are impacted by it, they will protect it.
他们会与伊朗作战。
They will fight Iran.
我认为他们会施加很大压力，阻止伊朗继续向他们的船只发射导弹。
I think they'll put a lot of pressure on Iran not to continue firing missiles at their ships.
对吧？
Right?
归根结底，这不仅仅是一个美国的问题。
At the end of the day, this is not just an American problem.
对吧？
Right?
让我们说清楚。
And let's be clear.
我们总是介入这个地区。
We're always involved in this part of the world.
唯一的问题是，我们是否会派出一支活跃的舰队，对伊朗开展军事行动？我要再次强调，当你试图清理这种烂摊子时，总是存在风险。
The only question is, are we going to have an active armada that's engaged in active military activities against Iran, and what I'm suggesting again and listen, anytime you try to clean up a mess like this, there is risk.
这不是一项没有风险的行动，你知道的，美国如此，委内瑞拉也是如此。但让我来为另一种立场辩护一下。
This is not a risk free, you know, initiative by The United States nor was Venezuela, But let me steel man the alternative.
什么都不做，任由伊朗获取制造核导弹所需的材料，而他们明确意图摧毁美国和美国利益；在委内瑞拉，任由门罗主义彻底崩塌，让我们的对手在南美洲占据有利位置——这些同样充满风险。
Doing nothing and allowing Iran to procure, you know, the ingredients for a nuclear missile when they are set on the destruction of The United States and US interests, doing nothing in Venezuela while Monroe Doctrine is totally wrecked and we let our adversaries take up, you know, positions in in South America, those also have risks.
对吧？
Right?
这些都伴随着巨大的风险。
Those carry a lot of risks.
因此，我们正在权衡这两种风险。
And so we're we're weighing these two risks.
再次说明，我不喜欢我们在这里参与军事行动，但我必须告诉你，如果我们要保护美国的国家安全利益，那就应该果断介入，削弱他们的能力，然后迅速撤离。
Again, for me, I don't like the fact that we're engaged in military activities here, but I will tell you, I am very much on the side that if we're going to go protect American national security interests, you go in, you do the the degrading of their capability, and you get out.
我认为，这就是我从总统那里听到的意思。
And I think, you know, that's what I hear out of the president.
Semafor 有个后续问题。
Semafor, had a follow-up.
所有线索都指向中国。
All roads lead to China.
我认为你会看到习近平提出一项重大协议，而总统需要决定是否接受，以及想添加什么内容来促成成果，但我根本不认为他们会见面后却一无所获。
I think that you're you're gonna see Xi offer up a grand bargain, and I think it's up to the president to decide whether he wants to take it and see what he wants to add to it to get something done, but I just don't see them meeting and coming out with nothing.
我认为他们会进入会谈并带着一项具有历史意义的成果出来，我认为所有这些——委内瑞拉和伊朗——归根结底都是关于中国。
I think I see them going in and coming out with something that's historic, and I think that all of this, Venezuela and Iran together, is all about China.
让我就这一点说一句，哈梅内伊，我认为这个观点完全切中要害。
Let me just say one thing as to that, Khamenei, I think because I think the point is absolutely spot on.
对吧？
Right?
从投资角度来看，这场战争初期我们最值得关注的一点是，中国没有为伊朗动武，没有为伊朗辩护，也没有取消与总统的峰会。
Probably the single greatest takeaway for us from an investment perspective at the start of this war was that the Chinese, right, didn't take up arms on behalf of Iran, aren't defending Iran, and they didn't cancel the summit with the president.
对吧？
Right?
事实上
The very fact
他们需要这次峰会。
that the summit they need him.
他们需要石油。
They need the oil.
他们国内消费的20%来自委内瑞拉和伊朗的石油。
20% of their entire domestic consumption is oil from Venezuela and Iran.
20%。
20%.
但这20%不仅仅是数字，因为所有燃料、运输、汽车、公交车、飞机都完全依赖它。
But it's not 20% because it's literally a 100% of anything that's feedstock, anything that's transport, cars, buses, planes.
他们正陷入巨大的困境。
They are in an enormous world of hurt.
展开剩余字幕（还有 480 条）
现在他们还有一个战略石油储备，而且相当充足，但还不足以支撑五到六个月的这种消耗。
Now they have a strategic petroleum reserve as well, and it's quite robust, But it's not robust enough to sustain five or six months of this.
没那么充足。
It's not that robust.
所以最终，谁会受到的伤害最大？
So at the end of the day, who is going to be hurting the most?
是中国。
It is China.
如果你从博弈论的角度来分析，他之所以保留它，是因为现在他更需要这场峰会了。
And so if you play this game theory out, the reason he kept it is because now he needs a summit even more.
你能想象如果总统取消了会怎样吗？
Could you imagine if the president canceled?
这对中国人来说将是一场灾难。
That would be a disaster for the Chinese.
所以，如果我是习近平，看到峰会仍然在日程上，我会想：我该如何谈判，帮他们找到一个脱身的出路？
So the fact that it's still on the books if I was Xi, I'd be like, how do I negotiate and help find the off ramp?
我该怎么更快地解决这个问题？
How do I end up fixing this faster?
好吧。
Alright.
记住，中国内部有25%的年轻男性失业。
Remember, you have 25% unemployment of young men inside of China.
今天就是25%。
25% today.
如果五个月没有石油，你觉得会升到多少？
What do you think it goes to in five months with no oil?
它处于
It's in the
杰森，你应该关注的是这个失业率。
That's the unemployment rate you should be focused on, Jason.
哦，中国问题是一个单独的问题。
Oh, the China issue is a separate one.
是的。
Yeah.
只是要它
Just to It's
不是分开的。
not separate.
不。
No.
不。
No.
那和我的观点无关，我的观点是……
That was separate from my point is my point.
我是在提出一个不同的观点。
I I was bringing up a different point.
是的。
Yeah.
你的水槽里没包括中文。
Your kitchen sink didn't include the Chinese.
我明白。
I get that.
我只是在你的水槽基础上补充一点。
I'm just adding to your kitchen sink.
我根本就没有水槽。
I didn't have a kitchen sink.
我提出了四个非常重要的观点。
I had four very salient points.
好的，萨克斯。
Alright, Sax.
我让你最后说一下。
I'll give you the final word here.
嗯，你看。
Well, look.
贾·卡尔，你刚才那番话有点像全面攻击，把所有东西都堆到一起了。
That was a bit of a a broadside, J Cal, where you kinda did kitchen sink it.
但听好了，我同意你的一点是：根本不需要政治天才就能明白，长期战争是不受欢迎的。
But look, here here's the part I'll agree with you about, which is it doesn't take a political genius to understand that long wars are unpopular.
如果这场战争真的拖成持久战，这会对共和党在中期选举或2028年造成打击。
It will hurt the Republicans in the midterms or '28 if this does turn into a long war.
幸运的是，我认为总统明白这一点。
Fortunately, I think the president understands that.
他的政治直觉无可挑剔。
His political instincts are impeccable.
他一直倾向于迅速、果断、短促的军事行动，无论是‘午夜锤’行动，还是对马杜罗的突袭，我认为这都是他的偏好。
And he's always favored short decisive swift actions, military actions, whether it was Midnight Hammer, whether it was the Maduro raid, I think that is his inclination and preference.
我认为我们已经接近或正处于总统必须决定下一步行动的关键时刻。
And I think we are pretty much at or close to a point where the president's gonna have to decide on next steps.
我认为他已经表明，我们的目标已经完成。
I think he's indicated that we have completed our objectives.
我认为重要的是，我们不能让党内新保守派试图扩大战争的目标或宗旨，因为坦率地说，他们对所有事情的看法都一直是错的。
And I think it's just important that we don't let this neocon wing of the party try to expand the objectives or aims of the war because frankly, they've always been wrong about everything.
我的意思是，这些人从来就不想从伊拉克和阿富汗撤军，如果由他们做主，二十年后我们可能还在那里。
I mean, these are people who never wanted to get out of Iraq and Afghanistan, would still be there after twenty years if they had their choice.
所以我认为，重要的是不要听信这些人的话。你看，这不仅仅是一篇《华尔街日报》的社论。
So I think it's just important to not listen to those people and look, it's not just one op ed in The Wall Street Journal.
《华尔街日报》实际上是代表整个新保守派建制派的先锋，我认为现在正是坦率地忽略这些声音、让总统按照他政治直觉行事的时候了——那就是结束这场战争。
The Wall Street Journal is kind of the tip of the spear representing that whole neocon establishment, and I think it's just important that this is the time to frankly ignore those voices and let the president do what I think his political instincts are telling him to do, which is to wrap this thing up.
我强烈同意，我也希望他能迅速结束这场战争，避免更多人员伤亡。
I'm in strong agreement, and it is my hope too that he wraps it up quickly and that we don't have any more loss of life.
好的。
Alright.
我们将在未来几周继续讨论这个持续更新的突发新闻事件。
We'll keep discussing, this ongoing breaking news story in the coming weeks.
但让我们回到我们的专长领域：人工智能与科技。
But back to our zone of excellence, AI and tech.
OpenAI 和 Anthropic 的收入和成本增长速度，超过了我们所知的商业史上任何时期。
OpenAI and Anthropic are scaling revenue and costs faster than we've ever seen in the history of, well, business, the world.
这两家公司的收入增长，简直达到了前所未有的水平。
Revenue at these two companies growing, gosh, like unprecedented levels.
这是相关报告，我相信你投资了这两家公司，布拉德。
Here are the reports, and I believe you're investors in both these companies, Brad.
Anthropic 上个月，也就是二月，年化收入达到了140亿美元。
Anthropic hit a 14,000,000,000 run rate last month, February.
这意味着他们在十四个月内，收入从10亿美元增长到了140亿美元。
That means they have grown revenue from 1,000,000,000 to 14,000,000,000 in fourteen months.
他们的年增长率达到了12倍。
They have 12 x year over year.
上个月，他们的估值仅为3800亿美元。
They're valued at a meager 380,000,000,000 last month.
考虑到这样的增长，这感觉像是一个低价买入的机会。
This feels like a bargain given the growth.
OpenAI 在2025年底实现了200亿美元的年化收入，其收入在二十四个月内从20亿美元增长到了200亿美元。
OpenAI ended 2025 at 20,000,000,000 annualized run rate, and they've grown revenue from 2,000,000,000 to 20,000,000,000 in twenty four months.
上个月，他们的估值达到8400亿美元。
They're valued at 840,000,000,000 last month.
看来萨姆·阿尔特曼已经把达里奥甩在身后了。
And, man, it looks like Sam Altman has Dario in the rearview mirror.
他随时可能被套圈。
He could get lapped any moment.
有很多争论。
Lots of debate.
你从哪儿找到这些数据的？
Where'd you find this?
这到底是什么东西？
What the hell is this?
是那个吗？
That one?
这是我做的。
I made that.
这是达里奥正在赶上来。
This is Dario closing in.
那是什么？
What is that?
迅猛龙？
A velociraptor?
那是什么？
What is it?
霸王龙？
A T Rex?
这是《侏罗纪公园》里的经典场景。
It's a famous scene from Jurassic Park.
天啊
Oh my
天啊。
god.
但我的意思是，没人预料到达里奥会这么快赶上来，但他现在紧追不舍，显然他们在B2B业务方面占了上风。
But, I mean, I don't think anybody expected Dario to be coming around the bend this fast, but he's right behind apparently, and they're winning, obviously, the business to business side of the business.
这些公司的J型曲线简直不可思议。
The j curve on these companies is insane.
2500亿，5000亿美元。
250, 500,000,000,000.
在这些公司实现盈利之前，到底会有多少资金投入进去，布拉德，但你投资了这两家公司。
Who knows what's get gets invested before these companies reach profitability, Brad, but you're invested in these two companies.
是的。
Yeah.
除非你在萨姆·沃特曼告诉你他会回购股份的那个著名BG第二集时卖掉了。
Unless you sold when Sam Watman told you he would buy his shares back on the famous BG two episode.
我觉得你并没有在
I don't think you sold it at
从那以后又多了，杰森。
more since then, Jason.
我买了很多
I bought a lot
从那以后又多了。
more since then.
这些对我们来说是很重要的信息。
That's important information for us to have.
我问你个问题。
Quick question for you.
第一，这里哪个是更好的买入选择？
Number one, what's a better buy here?
是的。
Yeah.
Anthropic 在3.80美元，OpenAI 在
Anthropic at $3.80, OpenAI at
8.40美元。
$8.40.
然后我认为人们想知道这些公司是否会上市，你认为它们是否应该上市，这种情况发生的可能性有多大？
And then I think people wanna know if these companies are gonna go public, what you'd if you think they should go public, what is the chance of that happening?
你可以随意回答这些问题。
Take those questions, however you like.
嗯，我的意思是，听我说。
Well, I I mean, listen.
你要平等对待你的孩子。
You know, love your children equally.
它们都是了不起的公司。
They're both incredible companies.
Anthropic无疑拥有强大的财务势头，而OpenAI也正在获得大量动力。
Anthropic unquestionably has a lot of financial momentum, you know, and OpenAI is seeing a lot of momentum themselves.
对吧？
Right?
但今年最重要的一個問題是，AI收入會出現嗎？
But the single most important question this year, right, was would AI revenue show up?
就在六十天前、九十年前，人們還極度懷疑。
And just sixty days ago, ninety days ago, there was tremendous skepticism.
這些基礎設施投資根本不可能回本。
No way all of these infrastructure investments were going to pay off.
AI不會帶來任何新增收入，我們很多朋友也這麼認為。
There's no incremental revenue coming out of AI, including many of our friends.
但在二月，我們在一月和二月經歷了一個核爆級的時刻。
But in February, we had in January and February, we really had kind of a nuclear moment.
對吧？
Right?
就像原子分裂的時刻。
The splitting of the atom moment.
我的意思是，二月我們從Anthropic那裡獲得了60億美元的收入。
I mean, we had a $6,000,000,000 month out of Anthropic in February.
对吧？
Right?
广泛报道。
Widely reported.
明白吗？
Okay?
让这个信息消化一下。
Let that set in for a second.
对吧？
Right?
一个月六十一亿美元，而那个月只有28天。
$6,000,000,000 in a month, and it was only a twenty eight day month.
明白吗？
Okay?
这比Databricks和Snowflake这两家有史以来最伟大的软件公司十二年来的年收入还要高。
That's more revenue than the annual revenue of Databricks and Snowflake that are two of the greatest software companies of all time after twelve years.
对吧？
Right?
他们在今年前四或五个月的收入就能达到SpaceX今年的总收入。
They could do in the first four or five months of this year the total revenue of SpaceX this year.
是什么推动了这一点？
What is driving that?
给观众解释一下是什么在推动它。
Just explain to the audience what's driving it.
是代币使用吗？
Is it token use?
是订阅扣款吗？
Is it clawed subscriptions?
我们已经跨越了Opus 4.6的门槛。
We crossed a threshold with Opus 4.6.
对吧？
Right?
我们在ChatGPT 5.4上再次看到了这一点，无论是Claude Code、Codex还是ChatGPT，这些模型及其上层的代理不再与IT预算竞争。
And we saw it again with ChatGPT 5.4 where the models and the agents on top of them, whether it's Claude Code, Codex, ChatGPT, they're no longer competing with IT budgets.
它们现在是在增强劳动力。
They're now augmenting labor.
它们正在与人力预算竞争。
They're competing with labor budgets.
你不可能做到一个月60亿美元的收入。
You could not possibly have a $6,000,000,000 month.
通过取代IT预算来实现这一点是不可能的。
It is impossible to do that by displacing IT budgets.
全美数以百万计的其他公司都说，天哪。
Millions of other companies across America say, oh my god.
让我们启动这些代理，让它们为我们做事，我们愿意为此付费，因为这些努力的成果对我们来说物有所值。
Let's spin up these agents and have them do things for us, and we're willing to pay for it because the product of that effort is worth the money to us.
我告诉你们，三月份的收入和使用量势头仍在持续，并且从此只会加速。
And the revenue and the usage momentum, I will tell you, in the month of March continues, and it only accelerates from here.
正如凯文·韦尔所说，如今的模型和代理是它们有史以来最笨拙的时候。
As Kevin Weil has said, the models and the agents are the dumbest today they will ever be.
对吧？
Right?
我们正处于计算和算法能力的早期阶段，所以在我看来，这就是当前的观察结论。
We're in the early innings of compute and algorithmic capability, and so, you know, like, that to me is the observation at this moment.
它们应该上市吗？
Should they go public?
我说应该。
I said yes.
它们应该上市，原因有几点。
They should go public for several reasons.
机构投资者的需求非常大。
There's tons of institutional demand.
它们需要以低成本获得资金，以继续构建所需算力。
They need cheap access to money to continue to build out the compute they need to support.
如今这些企业的算力限制比过去三年中的任何时候都要严重，因此它们需要获得资本。
They they there is more compute constraint in these businesses this very day than they've had any time in the last three years, so they need access to the capital.
最后，我认为零售投资者必须参与其中。
And then finally, I think you have to have the retail investor in the game.
这两家公司是资本主义历史和美国历史上最重要的公司之一。
These are two of the most important companies in the history of capitalism, in the history of America.
不让它们上市是不稳定的。
It's destabilizing not to have them public.
你知道，詹森上周说，他最近投资的这400亿美元将是他的最后一笔投入，因为这两家公司都打算上市，他说它们今年都会上市。
You know, Jensen said last week that he expected the 40,000,000,000 he recently invested in these two companies would be his last money in because they were both going He to go thought they he said they would both go public this year.
我认为，它们正在准备并朝着这个方向前进。
I think that, you know, they're they're preparing and heading down that path.
你知道吗？
You know?
而且听好了。
And and listen.
我想把这些股票放进我们为这些孩子开设的账户中，因为它们对美国经济的未来至关重要。
I wanna get some of these shares in the accounts of all these kids that we're opening up because they're really, really important companies to the future of the American economy.
Semafor，你对这笔收入的质量和持久性有什么见解吗？
Semafor, you had some insight into the quality, durability of this revenue.
我们找不到任何一个真正的企业级案例，能证明AI在持续提升利润率方面产生了实际影响，除非现在只是个小规模测试。
There's not a single good example that we can find of sustained positive margin expansion and impact of AI inside of a true corporate enterprise that is not right now a small test.
确实没有。
There's not.
那么，这60亿美元从何而来？
So where does 6,000,000,000 come from?
因为每个人都必须向董事会展示自己已经做了AI相关的事，而这样的公司成千上万。
Because everybody has to show up to their board and have an AI checkbox, and everybody is thousands and thousands of companies.
当你有数以万计的客户，每月支付200美元以上时，要达到这样的收入并不难。
And when you have tens of thousands of companies as customers paying $200 plus a month, it's not that hard to show up with that kind of revenue.
真正的问题在于以下这一点。
The real question is the following.
如果你以Databricks和Snowflake为例。
If you take you use the Databricks and Snowflake example.
如果你看看使用这些软件的公司，这些公司创造了巨大的收入和丰厚的利润，而这些产品正嵌入在支撑这些收入和利润的关键生产流程中。
If you look at the companies that use that software, those companies generate enormous revenues and enormous margins, and these products are in critical production workflows that underlie those revenues and profits.
但AI今天还远未达到这种程度。
That is just not true with AI today.
我们有各种各样的说法，但仍在进行实验。
We have all kinds of claims, but we are still experimenting.
为什么我们要做实验？
Why are we experimenting?
因为我们知道它很重要，但还不真正清楚该怎么做。
Because we know it's important, but we don't yet really know what to do.
你不能随便把AI插入医疗领域的关键流程中，然后突然宣称：一旦出现误诊或对程序的错误描述，你就会被罚款甚至坐牢。
You can't just slot this in to a critical workflow in health care and all of a sudden show up where if you make a misdiagnosis or if you make a a mischaracterization of a procedure, you can get fined and go to jail.
从事医疗行业的公司不会这么做。
The companies that are in health care don't do that.
如果你在金融服务行业，对某人的投资组合做出错误判断或出现资源配置失误，而你又把责任推给模型，那你就会被起诉并陷入麻烦。
If you're in financial services and you make a mistake about somebody's portfolio or you make a misallocation and you point to a model, you will get sued and you will be in trouble.
这些事情都还没有从‘很有趣、还在实验阶段’转变为‘核心关键的运营流程’。
None of these things have transitioned from it's interesting, it's experimental, to it's the core critical operational workflow.
这很有趣。
That's interesting.
当这种情况发生时，收入的质量将会发生转变。
There will be a transition in revenue quality when that happens.
一个很好的例子是亚马逊。
A great example of this is Amazon.
为什么亚马逊会发布一项规定，要求在AWS内部使用这些工具前，必须由人工审查并批准？
Why does Amazon issue an edict that says you cannot use this stuff inside of AWS unless a human now reviews and approves it?
那是因为发生了什么？
Because what happened?
他们曾因一批由AI代理编写的代码导致了三到四次严重级别的一级故障，直接让AWS瘫痪。
They had three or four sev one faults from a bunch of code that was written by agents that brought down AWS.
现在看。
Now look.
我已经告诉过你了。
I've told you.
我喜欢AWS的原因只有一个，因为它极其可靠。
I love AWS for one reason, because it's hyper reliable.
我讨厌AWS的原因也是这个，这种极致的可靠性带来了巨大的成本。
I hate AWS for the same reason, that hyper reliability comes at enormous cost.
我支付这笔费用，只是为了从不出现一级故障。
I pay it, but I pay it to never have a sev one.
他们能达到12个9的准确率，是因为依靠的是人类和从不出错的确定性代码。
The reason they have 12 nines of accuracy is because it's humans and deterministic code that never fails.
这并不意味着两家公司无法达到203亿、400亿美元的收入。
It doesn't mean that two companies can't get to $20.30, 40,000,000,000 of revenue.
这意味着我们必须诚实。
What it means is we have to be honest.
这是一个尚处于早期阶段的行业。
This is an industry that's early.
我们都在摸索中前进。
We are all figuring it out.
有很多测试预算正在投入其中。
There's a lot of test budgets that are going at it.
它会缓慢而系统地进入生产环境，但让我们不要过度炒作当前的这一时刻。
It will slowly and methodically emerge into production, but let's not oversell what this moment is.
好的。
Okay.
布拉德，我想问你一个结构良好的问题，然后萨克斯会接着问你，如果你有补充的话。
Brad, I wanna give you a well constructed question here to respond, and then Sax will go to you if you have some input.
在200亿美元中，你认为有多少是实验性的？
Of the 20,000,000,000, how much of it do you think is experimental?
基于当前情况，实验性与生产性的比例各占多少？
What percentage is experimental versus production based on
把消费者支出剔除掉，因为你知道，那占了一半。
strip out strip out the the consumer spending for because, like, you know, that's half of it.
对吧？
Right?
那我先把消费者部分放一边。
So let's I'll I'll put aside the cons sure.
好主意。
Great idea.
我们把消费者订阅部分搁置一旁。
We'll put the consumer subscriptions aside.
他们显然从中获得了价值，否则不会订阅，但这就像Netflix。
They're obviously getting value or they wouldn't be subscribing, but it's like Netflix.
而且通过
And by
顺便说一句，对于这种情况，它可能非常不稳定，也没有任何服务等级协议，但这些产品确实非常出色。
the way, for that, where it can be extremely faulty and there's no SLA that you're giving, it's a these are phenomenal products.
是的。
Yes.
每月20美元，非常值得。
For $20 a month, well worth it.
消费者已经认为这物有所值。
Consumers have decided it's worth it.
所以我认为我们在这一点上达成一致了。
So I think we're in agreement there.
对于那些可能有几百万名的独立工程师来说，他们每月支付200美元，由公司补贴这笔费用，公司知道这些成本正在发生，但最终并没有任何机制去以不同方式审查代码，因为你担心会出现幻觉——就像亚马逊刚刚展示的那样。
And also for the individual engineer, of which I suspect there's a few million, who get to pay $200 a month and have their company subsidize it, the company knows that these costs are being incurred, but there is no tick and tying at the end of it where then you review the code in a different way because you you know, you're worried that there's hallucinations as Amazon just demonstrated.
对。
Yeah.
《财富》杂志上有一篇报道，讲的是亚马逊因某种由AI生成的程序而遭遇了重大影响，他们正在采取控制措施。
There's a story in the there's a story in the Feet about Amazon having some blast radius from some computer generated AI, and they're putting controls in place.
我们会把这件事放在节目笔记里。
We'll put that in the show notes.
布拉德，我们来谈谈我之前提出的具体问题。
Brad, let's get to the specific question I asked.
在两家公司合计数百亿美元的收入中，不属于消费者的部分，你认为有多少比例是生产级的，有多少是实验性的，正如Semafor所指出的？
Of the tens of billions of dollars in revenue between the two companies that's not consumer, what percentage do you think is production quality versus experimental to Semafor's point?
是的。
Yeah.
我的意思是，听我说，我提出了‘实验性运行收入’这个说法，与年度经常性收入相对。
I mean, listen, and I've been, you know, I coined the phrase experimental run rate revenue, right, versus annual recurring revenue.
对吧？
Right?
我认为，作为投资者，这一点非常重要。
Like, think it's, I think, to my point is a really important one as an investor.
我必须区分哪些是重复发生的，哪些是经常性的，哪些不是。
I have to discern what's repeating, right, what's recurring, and what's not.
我想说的是，当然，由于这些技术出现的时间还不长，存在大量实验，但我怀疑，像帕兰蒂尔、美国政府、美国军方、英伟达以及其他许多大型企业都会认为，它们已经全面进入生产阶段。
What I would suggest is, of course, there's a lot of experimentation because these things haven't been around that long, but I suspect, right, that Palantir, the US government, the US military, NVIDIA, and a lot of other major enterprises would argue they've gone full production.
事实上，这关系到伊朗当前战时努力的生死存亡。
In fact, it's existential to the wartime effort going on in Iran right now.
这听起来对我来说不像是实验性的，而更像是生产能力，我会告诉你，能证明这一点的方法是：三月份收入是否持续增长？
That doesn't sound to me like experimental as much as it sounds like production capability, and I will tell you what will prove this one way or the other is in the month of March, do revenues continue and go up?
对吧？
Right?
整个过程会永远持续下去吗？
Do the the whole time go on forever.
做这些
Do the
这不对。
That's not true.
这不
That's not
对。
true.
实验会一直持续下去。
Well, the experimentation goes on forever.
这听起来像是反复进行的。
That sounds like recurring
我们只是触及了那些真正懂得如何采用人工智能的公司数量的表面。
to scratched the surface of of the number of companies that even know how to adopt AI.
所以这些数字会飙升到极致。
So these numbers will go to the stratosphere.
我并不反驳这一点。
I'm not debating that.
是的。
Yeah.
好的。
Okay.
听好了。
Look.
我和你站在同一边。
I'm on the same side of the bed as you are.
我希望这些数字继续飙升。
I want these numbers to keep going to the moon.
我只是对自己更加谨慎和诚实，承认我在现实中看到了情况。
I'm just being much more circumspect and honest with myself to say, I see it on the ground.
我坐在这些模型的顶端。
I sit on top of these models.
我每年为这些模型支付数百万美元。
I am paying these models millions of dollars a year.
是的，我在支付。
I am.
没错。
Yep.
我告诉你的事实是，我的收入并没有比他们的收入增长得更快。
And what I'm telling you is my revenues don't go up faster than their revenues.
我每天都在消耗更多的令牌。
I'm consuming more tokens every single day.
我获得更多的经济产出了吗？
Do I get more economic output?
我没有。
I am not.
我会说我的团队处于前沿，因此我怀疑《财富》1000强公司比我的团队落后好几步。
And I would say that my team is at the leading edge, and so I suspect a Fortune 1,000 company is steps behind my team.
如果我每三个月的支出增加三倍，但收入却没有翻三倍，我怀疑其他公司也面临类似的情况。
And if I am spending triple every three months and not seeing my revenues tripling, I suspect these other companies are in a similar situation.
我会定下来，但你周五和迈克尔·戴尔在一起时问一下，因为我最近刚和迈克尔·戴尔聊过这个话题。
I'd finalize it, but ask it on Friday when you're with Michael Dell because I've had this conversation recently with Michael Dell.
迈克尔一年前说，公司还没有看到投资回报。
And Michael said a year ago, companies weren't seeing ROI.
现在，他们在人工智能投资上看到了非常显著的投资回报，但我想这正是当前讨论的问题。
Today, they're seeing very big ROI in their AI investments, but I think that's the question on the table.
但哪些公司呢？
But What companies?
是哪些公司？
Which companies?
是的。
Yeah.
好吧，我们来看看萨克斯和查克。
Well, let's look at Saks and Chuck.
萨克斯和代理公司已经看到了投资回报。
Saks and Proxy were seeing an ROI.
萨克斯，我们同意这在很大程度上是实验性的，而且这是一个新工具。
Sacks, we're agreeing that is experimental in large part, and this is a new tool.
因此，从定义上讲，你必须在投入生产之前进行实验。
So by definition, you have to experiment before you put it in production.
你对这场大辩论有什么看法？
What's your take on this grand debate?
这部分收入中有多少是实验性的，有多少是真实的？
How much of this revenue is experimental versus real?
你看啊。
Well, look.
当你谈到企业收入时，你实际上谈的是代码辅助功能。
When you're talking about enterprise revenue, what you're really talking about is coding assistance.
这是第一个突破性的应用场景。
That's been the breakout use case.
这确实是企业端第一个大规模突破的应用场景。
It's really the first big breakout use case on the enterprise side.
消费端更多是像研究、写作这类东西，还有聊天机器人。
The consumer side has been more of like, you know, research and writing, that kind of stuff, the chatbots.
但企业端全部都是围绕代码辅助展开的。
But enterprise has all been about coding assistance.
我觉得对代码的需求具有很高的可扩展性。
My sense is that the demand for code is very scalable.
软件工程师一直是企业难以招聘到足够人数的领域。
Software engineers has always been an area of the economy where companies have never been able to hire enough.
即使在硅谷——这是软件工程师最向往的工作地点——我们也从未能招募和吸引到足够多的人才。
Even Silicon Valley, which is the most attractive place for software engineers to work, we've never been able to recruit and attract enough of them.
我投资过的每一个初创公司，限制其发展的关键因素都是缺乏足够的工程师来实现产品路线图。
The rate limiting factor on the progress of every startup I've ever invested in is not having enough engineers to code up the product road map.
再看看经济的其他部分，比如财富500强企业等等。
And then you look at the rest of the economy, the Fortune 500 and so forth and so on.
它们几乎根本无法招聘到软件工程师，因为所有人都去了硅谷。
They have hardly been able to recruit software engineers at all because they've all gone to Silicon Valley.
所以我认为，你面对的是一个长期存在严重人才供给短缺的经济领域。
So I think you're dealing with a part of the economy where there's always been a massive supply shortage.
我不知道这个限制的自然上限在哪里，但我的感觉是，市场对大规模生成代码、创造新产品的能力有着巨大的潜在需求。
And I don't know what the natural limit on that is, but my sense is that there's a tremendous latent demand for the ability to generate code in large quantities, create new products.
你知道，随着代码成本的下降，编码助手变得越来越强大，你就能开发出新型的产品。
You know, as the cost of code goes down, as the coding assistants get better, you can code up new types of products.
当然，这还将催生智能代理，这是另一种利用生成代码的方式。
And then of course, it's gonna lead to agents, which is another way of basically using the code that gets generated.
所以我觉得这可能会非常可扩展。
So my sense is that this could be very scalable.
我不确定它的上限究竟在哪里。
I don't know where it taps out exactly.
我认为钱伯斯说得对的是，像财富500强公司这样的企业，在这方面存在变革管理的问题，它们还没有真正想清楚该如何使用这项技术。
Where I think Chamath is right is that I think there is a change management aspect to this in Fortune 500 companies, for example, and they haven't really wrapped their heads around how exactly they're gonna use this.
有一项麦肯锡的研究显示，许多财富500强公司的试点项目都属于实验性质。
There's a McKinsey study that showed that a lot of these pilot projects in Fortune 500 companies were experimental.
其中很多项目最终被证明并不成功。
A lot of them were proving not to be successful.
所以我认为，当你从编码扩展到公司转型这类更广泛的领域时，事情就会变得稍微更具推测性。
So I do think like as you go beyond coding into, you know, company transformation, things like that, it becomes a little bit more speculative.
这并不意味着它不会发生。
That's not to say it won't happen.
我认为它会的，实际上我确实认为我们还在等待看到除编程之外的突破性应用场景。
I think it will I'm actually I'm But I do think that we're still waiting to see what the breakout use cases beyond coding will be.
可能代理会是下一个重要的方向。
Probably agents will be the next big one.
但我认为布拉德说得对，这已经足够重大，足以让我们长期观察这种规模，因为关于代码的一个关键是，现在你是在按使用量付费。
But I think Brad's right that that's big enough to see, you know, this scale for a while because, you know, there's a thing about the thing about code is you're paying for code on a metered basis right now.
你按令牌付费，这对公司来说简直是一笔超值的交易。
You're paying per token, which is kind of an amazing deal for companies.
对吧？
Right?
因为以前，他们必须经历招聘流程，寻找工程师，筛选他们，确保他们满意，提供所有福利、免费酒吧等等，你知道的？
Because before, they had to go through this recruiting process to find engineers, source them, vet them, you know, keep them happy, give them all the perks, the kind bars, all you know?
所以，随着每令牌成本持续下降，能够按使用量购买代码，这简直太棒了。
And so to be able to buy code on a metered basis as the cost per token keeps going down, It's kind of an amazing
以前。
before.
成交。
Deal.
以前是按人头计费。
It was just metered on people.
现在，如你所说，它是以另一种方式计费，但仍然是计费的。
Now now to your point, it's it's metered it's metered in a different way, but it's still metered.
是的。
Yeah.
让我用一下‘劳动力替代’这个术语。
And let me just, you know, use this term labor displacement.
对吧？
Right?
我可能唯一不同意你的地方是，当时确实存在严重短缺，是的。
That's like the one part where I might disagree with you is because there was such a shortage Yeah.
软件工程师的短缺。
Of software engineers.
我认为，当人们听到‘劳动力’或‘劳动力替代’这个词时，可能会认为60亿的额外收入意味着60亿的
I think when people hear the word labor or term labor displacement, they might start to think that 6,000,000,000 of incremental revenue means 6,000,000,000 of
裁员。
layoffs.
不。
No.
没有裁员。
No layoffs.
我不这么认为。
I don't think it does.
而解决这个问题的关键在于，我们之前在软件工程师的数量、使用方式以及招聘速度等方面都受到了人为限制。
And the way to thread that needle is the fact that we were artificially constrained in the number of software engineers and how they could be used and how rapidly they could be acquired and all that kind of stuff.
现在能够像开关电灯一样随时启用这些资源，这正是我们所讨论的。
To be able to now turn that on like electricity, I mean, that's kinda what we're talking about.
没错。
Exactly.
这为整个经济带来了巨大的变革和释放。
Is just such a huge game and unlock for the whole economy.
是的。
Yes.
这就是我认为这件事真正令人兴奋的地方。
And that's what I think is really exciting about it.
确实令人兴奋。
It is exciting.
增强人类劳动力，对吧？
Augmenting human labor, Right?
我们还没有达到取代人类劳动的阶段，这正是生产率提升的定义。
We're not at a place yet where it's displacing, and this is the definition of productivity gains.
我在这里只想提出两点。
I'm gonna make just two quick points here.
实际上，要看到这种技术从实验阶段转向生产应用，不应只关注大公司。
The place to look for this actually moving from experimental into production is not not at big companies.
大公司正在积极抵制这种管理方式，因为这意味着裁员。
Big companies are actively resisting this management, and big companies will resist it because it means lowering headcount.
这意味着实施它的人可能会让自己丢掉工作。
And it means the person who implements it might actually implement themselves out of a job.
因此，这就是你在大公司中会看到的自然阻力。
So that is the natural resistance you'll see in big companies.
寻找新技术采用的地方，不应该是大公司。
That's not where to look for adoption of new tech.
这并不是它发生的原因。
That's not why it's happening.
这也不是它发生的原因，让我把话说完。
That's not why it's Let me finish now.
然后你就可以对此进行反驳。
And then you can you can counter it.
初创公司才是值得关注的地方，这也是我亲身所处的领域。
Startups are the place to look at this, and that's where I am on the ground.
我在那里看到的是，初创公司正在将这项技术用于生产环境，处理法律事务、市场营销、销售开发代表（SDR）、会计以及审阅法律文件。
And what I'm seeing there is that startups are using this in production for their legal work, for their marketing, for SDRs, for their accounting, reviewing legal documents.
这些原本都是他们需要聘请顾问、外包或新增人员来完成的工作。
This is all work that would normally they would hire consultants for, outsource, or make hires for.
而我实地观察到的是，初创公司已经在这些领域——包括人力资源、会计、市场营销等——将这项技术投入实际生产使用。
And what I'm sitting on the ground is it's production ready in startups who are using it in those categories, HR as well, accounting, marketing, all of that.
所有这些基础性、日常性的工作，目前都由这些大语言模型完成，而且是在生产环境中大规模应用。
All that blocking and tackling, all those chores are being done currently with these LLMs, and they're doing it in production, and they're doing it at scale.
这里再简单提一点。
Just a quick second point here.
这是J型曲线，我想我们会在下一个环节讨论这个问题。
Here's the j curve, and this is the question I think we'll get to in our next segment.
什么时候这能成为一个盈利的业务？
When does this become a profitable business?
如果你像在BG二号播客那期著名片段中问萨姆那样问过这个问题，也就是R I P B G 二号。
If, and and you asked this of Sam in that famous clip on the BG two podcast, r I p BG two.
给你。
Here you go.
大语言模型行业，雅各布。
The LLM industry, Jacob.
我刚让克劳德帮我做了这个。
I just asked Claude to make this for me.
如果你有5000亿美元，我想你会同意，这笔投资很可能就落在这个数量级上，布拉德。
If you have 500,000,000,000, I think you would agree it's probably gonna be around that number, Brad, invested in all of this.
然后还要更多。
And then More.
多得多。
A lot more.
好的。
Okay.
所以50亿美元在这里是低估了。
So 5,000,000,000 is an underestimate here.
那么，我们什么时候才能看到这些大型语言模型公司在某个日历年实现盈利呢？
And then when do we actually see these large language model companies hit profitability in a in a calendar year?
特斯拉、优步、亚马逊，每个公司都花了十年以上的时间才收回投资。
It took Tesla, Uber, Amazon, you know, decade plus in each of those cases to win back their investment.
这是精确的100亿美元。
Here's the precise 10,000,000,000.
这是一张非常好的图表。
This is a really good chart.
这是关于这个问题的精确计算。
Here's the precise math on this.
所以我正在亚利桑那州建设一个一吉瓦的数据中心。
So I am building a one gigawatt data center in Arizona.
好的。
Okay.
当我批准这个项目时，我以为这会是一个40亿到50亿美元的投资。
When I greenlit that project, I thought it was gonna be a 4 or $5,000,000,000 investment.
我当时就想，好吧。
I was like, okay.
随便吧。
Whatever.
然后涨到了10。
Then it went to 10.
接着涨到了15。
Then it went to 15.
然后涨到了20。
Then it went to 20.
而现在，仅是电力基础设施、土地、所有许可、基础设施、人员等各项成本，就已经超过了500亿美元。
And now it's upwards of $50,000,000,000 for the powered shell, for all the land, for all the permits, then for all the infrastructure, all the people, all of it.
好的。
Okay.
萨拉·弗莱尔说，大概是一年前，甚至不到一年前，对他们来说，每吉瓦的年收入大约是100亿美元。
Sarah Fryer said, I think it was about a year ago, maybe less than a year ago, that for them, every gigawatt is about 10,000,000,000 of annual revenue.
所以如果你想想这个J型曲线，杰森，真正理解它的方式是：能量即智能。
So if you think about that j curve, Jason, really the way to think about it is, look, energy equals intelligence.
对于他们每尝试投入的一吉瓦，大约需要五年才能回本，这基本上就是达到盈亏平衡的意思。
For every gigawatt that they're trying to spend, they have a five year payback is roughly what it means just to get to breakeven.
而第六、第七和第八年才是盈利的阶段。
And then year six, seven, and eight will be where the profit is.
那么，你如何缩短这个J型曲线呢？
Now how do you shrink the j curve?
你需要更好的硅材料。
You have better silicon.
一周或两周内，我们将会看到詹森推出一些产品，这些产品将大量使用我们与他在Grok上合作的技术。
We're gonna see something from Jensen in a in a week or two that uses a bunch of the stuff that we partnered with him at Grok on.
还会有很多其他参与者。
There'll be other people.
还会出现开源方案。
There'll be open source.
所以所有这些因素都能缩小J曲线的深度和广度，让你能更快地走出困境。
So all those things can shrink the depth and the surface area of that J curve so that you can get out of it faster.
但目前来看，这个数字大致准确：每吉瓦大约需要500亿美元才能回本，需要五到六年才能开始盈利，之后每年大约能赚100亿美元。
But right now, that that thing is roughly accurate, which is it's about 50,000,000,000 per gigawatt, and it's about a five to six year payback just to get into the money, and then it's about 10,000,000,000 a year.
科技行业必须做些事情来改善这一状况。
And the technology industry has to do something to make this better.
不过，我能否退一步，给你一个不同的视角来看待这一切？
Could I though take a step back and give you just a different framing of all of this?
请说。
Please.
我认为我们真正争论的核心，其实是每个技术趋势在刚开始获得真正显著增长时都曾经历过的问题。
I think the big thing that we're debating is actually something we've seen in every other technology trend when it started to get some really meaningful traction.
在互联网的第一代，当你开始看到电子商务和其他各种商业模式时。
So in the first generation of the Internet when you started to see ecommerce and all these other business models.
然后在互联网的第二波浪潮中，随着移动化和社会化的发展，而现在我们正目睹着围绕人工智能的这波巨大浪潮。
Then in the second big wave of the Internet around the move to mobile and the move to social, and then now we're seeing this big wave around AI.
我认为在第一步中，创业者们正在AB测试筹集资金所需的方法。
And I think what happens is in step one, entrepreneurs are AB testing what it takes to raise money.
明白吗？
Okay?
这就是第一步。
That's step one.
我认为至少AI生态系统的一些部分已经认定，这种疯狂而可怕的末日论是筹集资金的最佳方式，他们时不时会出来宣称所有工作都将被摧毁。
And I think what has happened is that at least some parts of the AI ecosystem have decided that this crazy, scary doomerism is the best way to raise money, where every now and then they come out and they say, all the jobs will be destroyed.
Anthropic的Dario就是这么说的。
Anthropic, know, Dario says that.
这个东西是有意识的。
This thing is sentient.
投资者们就说，好吧。
And investors are like, okay.
给你一百亿美元。
Here's 10,000,000,000.
这是500亿美元。
Here's 50,000,000,000.
这是1000亿美元。
Here's a 100,000,000,000.
但接着第二步发生了。
But then the second step happens.
他们拿到了钱。
They get the money.
他们开始进行训练。
They start to do the training.
他们开始销售。
They start selling.
然后投资者说：嘿。
And then the investors are like, hey.
收入在哪里？
Where's the revenue?
于是他们开始在各地销售。
And so then they start selling everywhere.
然后如果你看看战争部的例子，突然间你就翻转了。
And then if you see in the Department of War example, all of a sudden, you flip flop.
你变得像个不认真的业余爱好者，成了美国政府的合作伙伴。
You become sort of an unserious dilettante, like, partner to the American government.
他们说：我们要把你赶出去。
They're like, we're gonna boot you out.
这导致数十亿美元的收入消失了。
That's billions of revenue gone.
那会发生什么？
And what happens?
那些曾经投资了数十亿美元的投资者说：嘿。
Those same investors that gave billions of dollars are like, hey.
等一下。
Hold on a second.
这绝对不被允许。
That's absolutely not allowed.
你需要遵守规则，重回正轨。
You need to conform and get back on track.
那么达里奥做了什么？
And so what does Dario do?
他态度反转，说：哦，我真的非常抱歉。
He flip flops, and he's like, oh, I'm really sorry.
我不是故意的。
I didn't mean to.
让我们想办法弥补吧。
Let's sort of make good.
在我看来，整个行业仍处于非常早期的阶段，还在摸索它在社会中的定位。
All of that to me is an industry that's still in its very early phases and still figuring out what its place in society is.
那么问题出在哪里？
So what is the problem?
问题是下面两个片段，我会让尼克播放这些，我很想听听你们的反应。
The problem is the following two clips, and I'll just have Nick play these, and I'd love your guys' reaction.
不过，我认为即使是现在，整个行业以及硅谷的所有参与者都低估了这些技术的颠覆性。
The one thing, though, that I think even now is underestimated by all actors in industry and including in Silicon Valley is how disruptive these technologies are.
如果你打算显著削弱一个群体的经济乃至政治权力——这个群体受过良好教育，大多是女性选民，通常投票给民主党，以及那些感到不被支持的军人和工人阶级人群。
If you are going to disrupt the economic and therefore political power significantly of one party space, highly educated, often female voters who vote mostly Democrat, and military and working class people who do not feel supported.
而你却认为这在政治上会顺利进行。
And you feel like that's you believe that that's gonna work out politically.
你简直是在疯人院里。
You're in an insane asylum.
你的意思是，这种技术颠覆了人类长期形成的、主要是民主派的选民群体，削弱了他们的经济实力，同时增强了那些职业培训出身、工人阶级、通常是男性选民的经济权力。
Like, you cannot have it this technology disrupts humanity's trained, largely democratic voters, and and makes their economic power less, and increases the power economic power of vocationally trained, working class, often male, voters.
这些颠覆性影响将波及我们社会的方方面面。
And and and so these disruptions are gonna disrupt every aspect of our society.
要让这一切顺利进行，我们必须就如何对待这项技术达成共识：我们该如何向那些可能失去更好、更有趣工作的普通人解释？顺便说一句，关于军事方面，这些技术在社会层面上是危险的。
And to make this work, we have to come to an agreement of what it is we're going to do with the technology, how are we gonna explain to people who are likely gonna have less good and less interesting jobs from their perspective, and how is it that we are going and by the way, on the military thing, these technologies are dangerous societally.
你唯一可能的正当理由是，如果我们不这么做，我们的对手就会这么做，而我们将被迫接受他们的法治。
The only justification you could possibly have would be that if we don't do it, our adversaries and, will do it, and we will be subject to their rule of law.
所以，如果你把这件事与军事支持脱钩，你就很难向美国民众解释：为什么我们要承担颠覆社会根基——包括社会中最强大部分——的风险，如果这并非为了在近期和长远保持我们的美国身份呢？
So you if you decouple this from the support of the military, you're gonna have an enormous problem explaining to the American people why is it that we're absorbing the risk of disrupting the very fabric of our society, including the most powerful parts of our society, if it's not because it's about maintaining our ability to be American in the near term and and and long term?
现在看看萨姆的反应。
Now watch Sam's reaction.
从根本上说，我们的业务，我认为其他所有模型提供商的业务，都将类似于出售令牌。
Fundamentally, our business and I think the business of every other model provider is gonna look like selling tokens.
但我们预见一个未来，其中智能将成为像电力或水一样的公共事业，人们按使用量向我们购买，并用于任何他们想用的用途。
But we see a future where intelligence is a utility like electricity or water, and people buy it from us, on a meter and use it for whatever they wanna use it for.
所以，如果你把这三种信息脉络放在一个光谱上，其中一种是：我们拥有一个有意识的超级神明。
So if you take those three messaging veins on a spectrum, one is we have a sentient super god.
只有我们能保护你免受它的威胁，但你知道，你的日子不多了。
We're the only ones that can protect you from it, but, you know, your days are numbered.
这是达里奥的观点。
That's Dario.
亚历克斯，他说嗨。
Alex, which is, hey.
等一下。
Hold on a second.
你不能两头都占。
You can't have it both ways.
你不能一方面这么说，另一方面又试图颠覆社会的结构。
You can't both say it on the one hand and then try to run the fabric of society and flip it.
你需要更加谨慎。
You need to be much more circumspect.
然后是萨姆的观点，即我们想把令牌作为服务来销售。
And then Sam's, which is we wanna sell tokens as a service.
我认为，当前这个行业中的收入增长，反而让人们忽略了真正达成共识，更加系统、可靠和可信地解释这一切并管理其扩展的重要性。
I think the point is that this industry right now, that revenue traction, if anything else, has distracted people from actually getting on the same page and being much more methodical and much more reliable and trustworthy in explaining all of this and managing the expansion of this.
因此，我想说的是，所有这些融资的空话实际上制造了一种不必要的慌乱，毫无助益。
And so what I would say is all of this fundraising gobbledygook has actually created this breathlessness that is not useful and isn't helping.
我认为，这些人需要更加认真地认真经营这项业务。
And I would say there needs to be a lot more seriousness by these folks to actually run this business thoughtfully.
你不能做个门外汉。
You can't be a dilettante.
你不能朝令夕改。
You can't flip flop.
你不能在公众面前对这种信息进行压力测试或A/B测试，但我理解你这么做的原因，因为 stakes 太高了。
You can't pressure test, AB test this kind of messaging in public, but I understand why you're doing it because the stakes are so high.
你正在玩一场巨大的扑克游戏。
You're playing this enormous poker game.
但我觉得我们需要更好地向人们解释这一切，因为就我这边来看，现在就是看这张图表。
But I think we need to do a better job of explaining all this to people because right now my end of this is look at this chart.
这就是那三条信息带来的结果。
This is now the result of those three messages.
这就是AI目前所处的位置。
Here is where AI is.
它略高于民主党以及一个专制国家，这就是AI所处的位置。
It is slightly above the Democratic Party, and an autocratic state, that's where AI is.
ICE的受欢迎程度比ICE本身还要高。
ICE is more popular than ICE is
不太受欢迎。
not very popular.
所以对我来说，这正是问题的核心——我们并没有真正坦诚相待。
So to me, this is really the crux of this, where we are not really being honest.
如果我们能冷静地说：这其实有很多实验，会更好。
It would be much better if we said soberly, there's a lot of experimenting.
这笔收入很不错，但我们并不真正知道哪些是真实的。
This revenue is great, but we don't really know what's real.
我们会努力弄清楚。
We're gonna try to figure it out.
我们会系统性地推进。
We're gonna work methodically.
有很多受监管的行业。
There's a lot of regulated industries.
我们将在这类行业中开展工作。
We're gonna work within those.
我们不会歪曲法律和规定。
We're not gonna fluff the law and the rules.
许可证仍将具有意义。
Licensure will still mean something.
这是一个更好、更周到、更成熟的信息。
That's a way better, thoughtful, mature message.
布拉德，你觉得呢
And Brad, what do
你认为发牢骚。
you think rant.
发牢骚。
And rant.
精彩的发泄。
Great rant.
布拉德，这个行业有公关问题吗？
Brad, does the industry have a PR problem?
显然，最近的这些调查，尤其是与中国对比时，中国民众将人工智能视为一种富足和令人兴奋的新技术并渴望拥抱，而这里的人们却感到恐惧。
Obviously, these recent surveys and especially comparing them to China where people see AI as abundance and, like, this incredible new technology they wanna embrace here, people are scared.
人们害怕自己会丢掉工作。
People are scared they're gonna lose their job.
人们担心财富差距。
People are scared about wealth disparity.
富人越来越富。
The rich get richer.
穷人越来越穷。
The poor get poorer.
在美国，这里充满了恐惧。
There's a lot of fear here in The United States.
我们的行业能做些什么来改善大公司在这方面的沟通？
What can our industry do to turn this around in terms of communication from the big companies?
是的。
Yeah.
它们似乎没有以任何协调的方式进行沟通，而且显然正在让公众感到恐慌。
They don't seem to be communicating in any coordinated fashion, and and they obviously are scaring the out of the public.
是的。
Yeah.
不。
No.
听我说。
Listen.
我认为这是一番公正的抱怨，也是一个合理的观点。
I think it's a I think it's a fair rant and a fair point.
在工业革命初期，也就是十九世纪末，我们对当时出现的创新也曾有过类似的社会反应。
At the start of the industrial revolution, at the start, you know, in the in the late eighteen hundreds, we had similar social responses to innovations that were occurring.
事实上，我们曾经发生过一些暴力冲突。
We, in fact, had some violent clashes.
我们曾在街头举行示威游行。
We had demonstrations in the street.
我们还经历了整个强盗贵族运动。
We had the entire robber baron movement.
你知道吗？
You know?
所以，阶级斗争乃至更糟的情况，确实伴随着这种规模的工业变革而出现。
So class warfare and worse is you know, has come with other revel you know, kind of industrial changes of this magnitude.
因此，人们对可能失去工作而感到焦虑，这并不让我感到意外。
So it doesn't surprise me that we have a lot of anxiety by people that they may lose their job.
我认为有一些人正在以一种令普通听众感到恐惧的方式预测未来，而我认为这并没有什么帮助。
And I think there are people out there who are kind of forecasting into the future in ways that are scary to, you know, the average person who's who's listening to this, and I don't think that's particularly helpful.
那么，我们能否更好地进行沟通呢？
So could we do a better job messaging?
这一点毫无疑问。
No doubt about it.
但如果我回溯到我们一开始讨论的地方，我认为这个行业将迎来一个关键年份，来真正展示这项技术对人类的巨大益处。
But if I just rewind to kind of where we started, I actually think the industry is, you know, this is going to be a pivotal year for the industry to demonstrate, right, how this is really beneficial for humanity.
我认为我们能够证明，它在医疗保健、药物研发、教育等方面都极具价值，但我们需要协调一致的努力，因为塞玛说得对，这项技术在全国范围内并不受欢迎。
I think we're going to be able demonstrate that it's very beneficial from a health care perspective, from a drug discovery perspective, from an education perspective, etcetera, but we need to have a coordinated effort because, Sema's right, it's deeply unpopular in the country.
我个人对此持乐观态度。
I happen to be on the optimistic side of this.
如今美国70%的工作岗位在四十年前并不存在。
70% of the jobs that exist in The United States today did not exist forty years ago.
对吧？
Right?
对吧？
Right?
我们已经经历了数字化颠覆，导致许多人失业，但新岗位的涌现和创造，扩大了整体的就业蛋糕，让大多数人从中受益。
We've gone through the digital disruption that put a lot of people out of work, but the abundance and the and and the recreation of new jobs, right, expanded the pie for for largely everyone.
我认为这里也会是这种情况。
I think that will be the case here.
如果你听达里奥的说法，他担心的是这种颠覆发生得更快、更大，以至于我们无法跟上这种替代的步伐，我认为这是另一个细微的差别。
If you listen to Dario, he says the concern is that the disruption occurs at a faster and and and and bigger rate, and so that we can't keep up with kind of that replacement, I think that's another fine point.
但如果我们回到我们对话的起点，也就是这些是不是好的投资？
But if we just go back to where we started the conversation, which was, are these good investments?
对吧？
Right?
那不是我们要讨论的话题。
Do That's not the conversation.
不对。
No.
当然它们是好的投资。
Of course they're good investments.
当然，你肯定会不。
Of course, you're gonna No.
关于 Bayt 播客
Bayt 提供中文+原文双语音频和字幕，帮助你打破语言障碍，轻松听懂全球优质播客。