杰克·保罗与烟鬼组合：将名气转化为资金，杰克涉足政坛？以及风投泡沫的信号

因为你们在超越自我方面做得非常出色，但你们需要一个起点。

Because you guys have done an incredible job of transcending, but you need a nut.

你们需要开始你们的第一个项目。

You need to start your first something.

第一个项目必须成功，并且要把它变成一个真正的生意，而你们做到了。

The first thing has to work, and you have to make it into a real business, and you did that.

在你们开始之前，先解释一下你们的商业模式——

Explain the business of your business before you-

你想不想...

Do you want to...

我可能会对音乐行业太悲观了。

I'm going to be too negative about the music business.

我可以保持乐观。

I can be positive.

好的。

Okay.

你来吧。

You do it.

那我先来。

I'll start.

我先说点积极的。

I'll be positive first.

对，音乐行业竞争极其激烈。

Yeah, and the music business is an extremely competitive landscape.

现在每天有三十万首歌上传到Spotify。

And now there are 300,000 songs being uploaded to Spotify every day.

哇。

Wow.

内容无穷无尽。

Endless content.

每天三十万首？

300,000 a day?

没错。

That's right.

哇。

Wow.

所以，我们2012年刚开始的时候，情况不是这样的。

And so, when we started in 2012, it wasn't like that.

那时候还没有流媒体。

It was pre-streaming.

我觉得如果现在重新开始，我真不知道该怎么办。

And I think if we started over today, I have no idea how we would do it.

但在2012年，我们刚开始在电子音乐领域摸爬滚打，作为制作人和词曲作者，我们开始做混音。

But in 2012, as we were cutting our teeth in dance music and as producers and songwriters, we started doing remixes.

我们很喜欢独立电子音乐。

We loved indie electronic music.

当时有个叫Hype Machine的榜单，那是互联网上第一个病毒式传播的榜单。

There was this chart called Hype Machine, which was the first viral chart of the internet.

这比流媒体时代早多了。

This is way before streaming.

基本上，你在这个榜单上的排名，算法就是看有多少博客提到了你，然后你就进入榜单，再看你在这个榜单上获得了多少点赞。

And basically, how you were charted on this, the algorithm was basically how many times a certain amount of blogs posted about you, and then that's how you entered the chart, and then how many likes you got on that chart.

所以我们做的就是，我们会去找所有这些艺术家，因为我们喜欢这个榜单上发布的音乐，我们会求他们让我们做混音。

So, what we would do is we'd go to all these artists because we loved all the music that was being posted on this chart, and we'd beg them to do remixes.

然后亚历克斯进入了Hype Machine的后台，找到了每一个为这些博客写文章的孩子，这些博客是他们获取音乐的来源。

And then Alex went in the back end of Hype Machine, and he found every kid that wrote for every blog that they pulled music from.

我们会制作一首他们已经在讨论的歌曲的混音，然后亚历克斯会给他们写那些搞笑的邮件，非常个性化，提到他们上学的学校，因为他意识到这些孩子都是大学生，想更接近艺术家，而那些厂牌发的都是千篇一律、无聊的推广邮件，毫无吸引力。

And we'd make this remix of a song they were already posting about, and then he would write them these hilarious emails, like super personalized, gave them about where they went to school, because what he realized is all these kids are college kids that want to be closer to artists, and all these labels that are sending these blanket, boring, promotional emails, it was uninspiring.

所以他们对亚历克斯的消息非常感兴趣。

So, they were really receptive to Alex's messages.

然后我们从职业生涯第一年几乎完全默默无闻，变成了在那个网站上有30首冠军单曲，因为我们混音选对了歌。

And we went from, in the first year of our career, pretty much being completely obscure to we now have 30 number ones on that site because we were remixing the right thing.

但我觉得在我们职业生涯的第一年，亚历克斯就建立了一个最强大的推广平台，可能比当时任何其他厂牌都要强大。

But I think within the first year of our career, Alex had developed the most powerful promotional platform, probably more than any other label at the time.

这就像内容营销。

It's like content marketing.

就像你们——

It's like you guys-

完全同意。

Totally.

那只是我们当时的拼劲。

And that was just our hustle at the time.

现在不适用了。

That's not applicable now.

也许现在是TikTok。

Maybe it's TikTok.

我不知道如果我们得从头开始会怎样，但那是我们最初做的事，我们在学习成为好的制作人和词曲作者，找到我们的艺术身份。

I don't know if we had to start from that point, but that was our first thing as we did what we were learning to be good producers and songwriters, find our artistic identity.

现在想想音乐行业的模式，感觉也有点破碎，我觉得风险投资和唱片公司交易之间有很多相似之处。

It feels a bit broken, too, when I think about what the music model is right now, and I think there's a lot of parallels between what happens in venture and what happens on the label side of deals.

现在分发渠道比以往任何时候都多，你可以自己建立听众群，直接和粉丝互动，打造自己的社区。

There's more channels for distribution than ever, and to create your own audience and goes directly to your fans and create your own community.

说实话，我非常好奇谁会成为第一个全新的艺术家，拒绝所有那些传统的做法，比如签约唱片公司、把未来五张专辑的版权都签出去之类的。

And I'm honestly very interested to see who will be that first brand new artist that sort of rejects all the typical customary things that an artist does, like signing with a label and signing away your next five albums and things like this.

我觉得我们正处在那个转折点上。

And I think we're on the precipice of that.

但我确实认为音乐行业存在一个恶性循环，就是突破太难了。

But I do think there's this vicious cycle that happens in music where it's so hard to break through.

而当你终于突破的时候，你会面临这样的处境：第一，你可能会得到人生中第一笔几百万美元的报价，而这笔钱是为你倾注了全部心血的东西。

And when you finally do break through, you're in this position where, A, you're probably being offered your first couple of million dollars that you've ever made in your life for something that you've poured your heart and soul into.

然后你还会想到你一生中崇拜的那些人，他们基本上也都签约了唱片公司。

And then you also think about all the people you've admired over the course of your lives, and they all generally signed with labels, too.

所以，这是你决定真正相信自己、全方位走独立路线的时刻，还是选择稍微安全一点的路，但在这个过程中把自己的一部分和未来的自己卖给唱片公司模式？

And so, is this the moment where you decide to truly bet on yourself and go direct in every sense of the word, or do you take the slightly safer route, but in the process sell a part of yourself and future self to the label model?

我觉得唱片公司仍然在很多方面提供价值，但现在的世界已经完全不一样了。

And there's a lot of value that labels still provide, I think, in different capacities, but I think it's a completely new world out there right now.

我觉得没人真正知道接下来会发生什么，尤其是AI、音乐、流媒体、YouTube，还有所有这些平台，大家的注意力越来越短。

I don't think anyone really has a clue what's going to happen, particularly with AI and music and streaming and YouTube and all these other platforms and people's attentions getting shorter and shorter.

现在真是一个疯狂的时期。

And it's a kind of crazy time right now.

非常令人兴奋，但也跟我们刚开始做音乐的那个时代大不相同——

Very exciting, but also just vastly different than the period of music we started-

但在这个——

But on this-

12年前。

... 12 years ago.

在音乐这方面，你们做了很多现场演出。

On this music side of your lives, you guys do a lot of live performance.

那是不是大部分收入都来自那里？

Is that where most of the income is then generated?

现在真正的商业模式是不是现场演出，而不是数字音乐？

Is that really the business today, is live performance versus digital?

一旦你在那里取得了突破，有了观众，那不就自己会持续下去吗？

And once you've broken through there and you've got an audience, doesn't that just keep feeding itself?

对我们来说确实是这样。

It is for us.

这取决于你做的是哪种巡演。

It depends on what type of touring you do.

我们有自己表演的歌曲。

We have songs that we go and perform.

有时候我们会带整个乐队，做体育馆巡演，那开销可大了。

Sometimes we'll have a whole band, and we'll do an arena tour, and there's crazy overhead.

幸运的是，我们是从电子音乐起家的。

And luckily for us, we came up in dance music.

我们一开始就是DJ，这大概是我们巡演业务中很重要的一部分。

We were DJs before we were anything, and that's a big part of, I guess, our touring business.

而且那里的经济效益要好得多。

And there's vastly better economics there.

所以，对我们来说，确实是这样。

So, for us, that is the case.

那接下来，我们能聊聊你们是怎么过渡到投资领域的吗？你们是怎么开始的，以及你们生活中的这些经历是如何帮助你们完成这个转变的？

So then, can we talk then about the transition to investing, how you got into it, and how this part of your lives helped you make that transition?

德鲁其实已经提到了一些。

Drew kind of touched on it.

我觉得我们一直以来和科技的关系都挺积极的。

I think we've always had a really positive relationship generally with technology.

我觉得我们在整个职业生涯中都很巧妙地利用了科技，就像德鲁提到的增长黑客那样。

I think we leveraged it in very clever ways throughout our career, like the growth hacking Drew was talking about.

我们的朋友詹姆斯创建了一个叫Tilt的会议技术，我们用它来处理巡演数据。

Our friend James created this conference technology called Tilt that we used for touring data.

而且那是在云计算和我们现在能用的这些后端数据出现之前。

And this is pre-cloud, pre all this back-end data that is available to us right now.

所以，我觉得那奠定了我们和科技之间积极的关系。

And so, I think that established sort of a positive relationship.

说实话，我们进入风投领域的方式再老套不过了。

And honestly, our foray into venture was about as cliché as it gets.

我们很幸运能成为成功的艺人。

We were lucky to be a successful artist.

我们通过The Chainsmokers拥有了这个分发和营销平台，因此我们就像消费品牌的磁铁一样。

We had this distribution and marketing platform via The Chainsmokers, and thus, we were sort of like catnip for consumer brands.

我觉得

And I think

那对我们来说是一个有趣又令人兴奋的开始投资的时期。

That was an interesting, exciting time for us to start investing.

但真正打动我们、让我们产生共鸣的，是与创始人的关系以及能够为这些企业增值的能力，我觉得这才是让我们意想不到的地方。

But I think what really struck us and resonated was the relationship with founders and the ability to add value back into the businesses, and I think that's what caught us off guard.

我们没有把它当作一个被动的收入机会，而是想亲力亲为，自己掌控局面。

Instead of treating it like this passive revenue opportunity, we wanted to be hands-on and sort of take matters into our own hands.

而且，我也很喜欢有创造力的人。

And then also, I love creative people.

我觉得能在音乐领域有这样的职业生涯真是太棒了。

I think that it's so amazing to have this career in music.

但是和那些全力以赴、为了一个远大目标日夜奋斗的创业者合作，确实让人感到振奋。

But there's something inspiring about working with an entrepreneur that's putting it all on the line, sort of going 24/7 towards this pretty big goal.

说实话，这个世界并不缺更多的水公司。

And I won't lie, more water companies is not what the world needs.

我们当时见到了像布莱恩·切斯基、德鲁·休斯顿、迈克尔·赛贝尔和可汗兄弟这样的优秀创始人，你不得不问自己：我们到底想把时间和金钱花在哪里？

And we were meeting great founders like Brian Chesky and Drew Houston and Michael Seibel and the Khan brothers, and you sort of got to ask yourself, you're like, "Where do we want to be spending our time and money?"

这些项目大部分可能都不会成功。

Most of this stuff probably won't work out.

至少让我们投资那些我们认为真正有趣、并且可能对世界产生积极影响的事情。

At least let's invest in things that we think are truly interesting, could actually have a positive impact on the world.

我记得我自己投资了优步的G轮融资，好像是最后一轮，我当时觉得这是我做过的最聪明、最酷的事情。

I remember, personally, I invested in the series G of Uber or something, the final round, and I thought it was the smartest, coolest thing I ever done.

到目前为止，那笔投资我只赚了大概25美元。

I made, like, 25 bucks on that investment to date.

但对我来说，这正是我们未来想要参与的事情。

But that, to me, was the sort of thing that we wanted to be a part of in the future.

我觉得这让我们走上了机构化投资的道路，成为网络安全、人工智能、基础设施和深科技领域公司的优秀合作伙伴，并且我们对此非常认真。

And I think that led us down a path to institutionalizing our access, becoming really great partners to companies in cybersecurity, AI, infra, deep tech, and taking it incredibly seriously.

你是怎么学会评估你的筛选过程的？

How did you learn to assess your selection process?

所以，这些项目就来了。

So, these things are coming in.

你之前没见过网络安全公司，我猜你第一次见到的时候是这样。

You've not seen a cybersecurity company before, I'm assuming the first time you saw one.

你是怎么开始做这些选择的？

How do you start to make these choices?

对，我觉得在某种程度上，那是个大问题。

Yeah, I think on some levels that was the big question.

就像，我们确实对这个领域有兴趣。

It was like, we definitely have an interest here.

我觉得最重要的是，我们要出现，并且成为好的合作伙伴。

I think the most important piece was, we're going to show up and we're going to be good partners.

我不会为了达到目的而做那些传统的表面功夫，然后就不见踪影。

I'm not going to do the traditional song and dance to get what we want and then sort of disappear into the fray.

但我也同意，我们当时并不完全清楚，网络安全公司需要什么。

But I also agree, we weren't super clear on, what does a cybersecurity company need?

但我觉得有趣的是，在和很多我们幸运结识的创始人交流之后，感觉那些让他们夜不能寐、在当今时代创业时面临的挑战，很多都是我们非常有经验的事情。

But I think what was interesting is after speaking with a ton of founders that we've been lucky enough to build relationships with, it felt like the things that were keeping them up at night and challenging them as they built their business in the modern present day were a lot of the things that we had a lot of experience with.

我的意思是，我们做音乐的方式几乎和15年前一样，但围绕这个业务的其他一切都完全改变了，比如我们如何分发、建立社区、销售、巡演等等。

And sort of what I mean by that is, we make music almost the same way we did 15 years ago, but everything else around that business has completely changed in terms of how we distribute it, create community, sell it, tour it, and all these things.

而建立一家公司，显然你仍然关心收入、净美元留存率、客户获取成本、销售成本等等，但创造这些的输入方式已经不同了。

And I think building a company, obviously, you still care about revenue, net dollar retention, customer acquisition costs, COGS, all those things, but the inputs by which you create them is different.

感觉有机会建立一种差异化的公司，它不一定是要替代Craft或红杉或其他什么，而是成为一个协作伙伴，并且，找不到更好的词来说，就是理解我们在生态系统中的角色，不要——

And it felt like there was an opportunity to build sort of a differentiated type of firm that isn't necessarily supposed to be a substitute for a Craft or Sequoia or whoever's out there, but be a collaborative partner and sort of, for lack of a better term, understand our role in the ecosystem and don't-

那你能否详细说说，这样的公司是什么样的？

Can you unpack, then, what does a firm look like, then?

是我、杰夫、德鲁和米兰一起创立的。

Me, Jeff, Drew, Milan founded it.

我们还有几位很棒的合作伙伴，比如英格罗夫。

We have a few great partners, like Ingrov.

我们专注于网络安全、人工智能、基础设施、深度科技和健康科技领域，主要投资种子轮和A轮阶段的公司。

We specialize in or focus, at least, across cyber, AI, infra, deep tech, and health tech, and we invest in seed and series A stage companies.

我们不领投。

We don't take lead positions.

我们喜欢在这些团队里扮演最佳第六人的角色。

We like being the sixth man of the year on these teams.

这有点像，我觉得我们就像罗伯特·霍里。

It's sort of like, I think of ourselves as Robert Horry.

罗伯特·霍里有很多总冠军戒指。

Robert Horry has a ton of championship rings.

你完全可以非常成功，而不必在每个团队里都当沙奎尔·奥尼尔。

And you could be really successful, and you don't have to be Shaquille O'Neal on every team.

我觉得通过和优秀的公司合作，我们学到了很多，和优秀的创始人合作也让我们收获颇丰。

And I think we've learned a lot by working with great firms, and we've also learned a lot by working with great founders.

而且，回到你刚才的问题，这正是关键所在——开始培养那种能力，那种识别什么是卓越的模式识别能力。

And that, sort of getting back to your question, is the whole point, which is beginning to build that muscle, that pattern recognition on what greatness looks like.

这些公司是怎么支持这些创始人的呢？

What are these firms doing to support these founders?

然后我觉得我们都夸大了每个人实际上为这些公司做的事情。

And then I think we all over-exaggerate what everyone is actually doing for these companies.

我挺惊讶的，我收到一封邮件说：‘嘿，哥们，你能帮我联系上这个人吗？’

And I was surprised by, I get an email saying, like, "Hey, dude, is there any way you can get me on the phone with this person?"

然后我说：‘其实可以。’

And it was like, "Actually, yes.

我们三天前刚在他们公司的派对上表演过。

We played their company party three days ago.

那没问题。

That's no problem."

所以我们在市场拓展关系和品牌建设方面帮了很大的忙，我觉得这在现在特别重要，因为AI让技术变得不那么有壁垒了。

And so we've been extraordinarily helpful when it comes to go-to-market relationships, sort of the brand-building side of things, which I think has become really important nowadays when you talk about the indefensibility that AI's created around tech.

你真的需要把所有的注意力都吸引过来——

You really need to suck the oxygen-

我是说，这——

I mean, this is-

……把房间里的空气都吸走

... get out of the room

……是个关键点。

... a critical point.

你们真的是非常了不起的企业家。

You guys are just extraordinary entrepreneurs.

在音乐行业里真正把生意做起来，是最难的事情之一——

To actually make a business work in the music industry is one of the most difficult-

难

Difficult

是最难的事情之一。

... things you could ever do.

这比做软件难得多。

It's a magnitude more difficult than making software.

所以我觉得你在这方面很有信誉。

And so you have, I think, a lot of credibility there.

而且你懂市场，能支持别人，建立人脉，也知道什么时候该放手。

And go to market and being able to support people and networking, and then also knowing when to get out of the way.

优秀的创始人很少需要帮助，但当他们需要时，比如人脉或理解商业模式，你确实有很好的资源去做这些。

And the great founders very rarely need help, and when they do, something like networking or something like understanding the business model, you are actually very well connected to do it.

而项目来源是作为风险投资人最难的部分。

And deal flow is the hardest part of being a venture capitalist.

我们很幸运有这个播客，能让我们获得很多项目来源。

We are blessed with this podcast, gives us the ability to get a lot of deal flow.

而你们也很幸运，因为你们在自己的领域备受尊敬，很多创始人可能看过你们的演出，或者听过你们的音乐。

And you're blessed with the fact that, hey, you guys are very well respected in your field, and a lot of the people who are founders have probably come to see you play and might have jammed out to your music.

而且，我觉得这完全说得通。

And, I think it's absolutely valid.

就算有人拿这个开玩笑或者怎样，你确实是在做实事。

And for people to kind of goof on it or whatever, you're doing the work.

拿风险投资开玩笑很容易，但这工作确实不容易。

It's very easy to goof on venture capitalists, but it's hard work.

我喜欢当不被看好的那一个。

I love being the underdog.

那是最好的位置。

That's the best position.

确实是最好的位置。

It's the best position.

而且我觉得我不会押注自己输，我也不觉得有人押过，结果都还不错。

And I think I wouldn't bet against us, and I don't think anyone that has, it's worked out with.

那会是个糟糕的赌注。

That would be a bad bet.

继续低估我们吧。

Keep underestimating us.

我很乐意处于这个位置。

I'm happy to be in that position.

但我们热爱这份辛苦的工作。

But we love the hard work.

我们喜欢迎难而上。

We love showing up.

这一直是我们的天性。

That's always been in our DNA.

对我们来说，这是一个绝佳的机会。

For us, this is an incredible opportunity.

我在纽约大学学过艺术史。

I studied art history at NYU.

对我来说，这一切都难以置信，能处于这个位置做这些事情。

All of this is unbelievable to me, to be in this position doing any of this stuff.

所以我们不会把这当作理所当然，但这些事情是人们的毕生心血和梦想。

So we don't take it for granted, but these things are people's life work and life's dreams.

能够去世界各地为我们的粉丝演出，看到我们的音乐对人们意味着什么，这是我能想象到的我们人生中最有成就感的事情。

And to be able to go play shows all over the world for our fans and see the experience that what our music means to people, it's the most fulfilling thing I can imagine doing with our lives.

随着科技越来越强大，我注意到好莱坞的人对此有极大的好奇心。

As tech has gotten bigger and bigger, I've noticed that there's a tremendous curiosity from people in Hollywood.

不仅仅是音乐行业，还有演艺或经纪公司。

Not just music business, but acting or the agencies.

每个人都想以某种方式参与其中。

Everyone kind of wants to get in it in some way.

你们投资了很多独角兽公司。

You guys have invested in a ton of unicorns.

你们在投资的公司方面有着非常出色的记录。

You have a phenomenal track record of the companies you've gotten into.

这非常令人印象深刻。

It's very impressive.

我很好奇，你会给好莱坞那些可能已经大红大紫的人什么建议？

I'm curious, what advice would you give someone in Hollywood who maybe has huge stardom

……非常有名，光靠名字就能拿到投资份额和交易，但他们完全不知道怎么做。

... is very well known, and who could get allocations and deal just based on their name, but they have no idea how to do it.

你会给他们什么建议？

What would your advice to them be?

我会先问他们房贷还清了没有。

I would ask them if they paid off their mortgage first.

如果这些都搞定了，我觉得风险投资可能是最后才应该开始涉足的领域，因为一般来说，它周期长，流动性差。

And if they've done all of that stuff, I'd say venture is probably the last frontier to begin investing in, in my opinion, because it is long duration, illiquid assets generally.

风险投资本身也极其困难。

Venture is also just extremely hard.

你在说的是——

You're talking about-

极其困难

Extremely hard

我们昨天在聊天里看了一些图表，就是前5%的人赚走了90%的回报。

We were looking at some chart yesterday in our chat, just like the top 5% generate 90% of returns.

你必须得投到最好的公司里。

You have to just be in the best companies.

所以不管是在体育、好莱坞、音乐，还是风险投资，想成功都特别残酷。

And so it's brutal out here to have success in two things, whether it's sports, Hollywood, music, and then venture.

你得用同样的方式去对待。

You got to approach it the same way.

我们把所有时间都花在这两件事上。

We dedicate all of our time to these two things.

我们全天候工作。

We work 24/7.

我们深入一线。

We are heavy in the streets.

我们见过很多人问我们：“我们想进入风险投资这个领域。”

We've seen a lot of people that have asked us, "We want to get into the venture game."

而且，这种情况很少见——通常我们见他们的时候，都是见他们的团队，他们本人根本不出席。

And, it's very rare that those-- Usually, when we meet with them, we meet with their teams, and they don't show up for the call.

我觉得大家没意识到这工作量有多大。

And, I don't think people realize how much work it is.

你的名气是帮了你还是害了你？

Does your fame help or hurt you?

我们每一分钱都是亲自去筹的，每一笔交易都得亲自去谈——

Every dollar we've raised personally, every deal we've had to get in person-

因为基本上噪音太多了。

Because there's a lot of noise, basically.

你得从中筛选出——

You have to sift through that to find-

我觉得没人愿意干这个。

I don't think people want to do that.

我觉得风投听起来很刺激，但真正要做的是——

I think the idea of venture is super exciting, but what it takes is-

就是埋头苦干。

Grinding

……极其辛苦。

... extremely hard.

你的名气是帮了你、害了你，还是没影响？

Does your fame help, hurt, or neutral?

说实话，我觉得两者都有。

I think both, to be honest.

显然，名气能带来和人接触的机会——我经常在LinkedIn上利用我的名字去联系我想交谈的人。

I think there's obviously opportunities to connect with people that probably would-- I'm on LinkedIn all the time leveraging my name and getting in touch with people that I want to speak with.

但另一方面，在募资的时候，你面对机构里的负责人，他们就会说：‘听着，我喜欢你在做的事，但我可不会投资烟鬼组合的基金，因为万一出了什么问题，你肯定第一个被拿来问责。’

But then there's obviously the fundraising side where you're speaking to a principal at an institution, and they're just like, "Listen, I like what you're doing, but I'm not about to invest in the Chainsmokers fund, because you'll be the first thing that will be pointed out to me if something goes wrong."

我理解这一点，我觉得你需要体谅他们的立场。

And I understand that, and I think you need to be empathetic to that point.

而且我觉得我们一直都是那种以结果为导向的人。

And I think we just are always been results-driven guys.

所以就是说，'没事。

So it's like, "All good.

下一期基金我会带着让你后悔这个决定的业绩回来，我们再试一次。'

I'll be back next fund with numbers that will make you regret this decision, and we'll try this again."

我觉得你说得非常有力。

I think you're saying something incredibly powerful.

我觉得如果我在投资生涯的那个阶段学到了什么，那就是持续产生DPI的能力能穿透所有噪音。

I think if I learned anything in that chapter of my life as an investor, the ability to generate consistent DPI cuts through all the noise.

因为不管他们对你有没有意见，别人对我也可能有意见，但不可否认的是回报。

Because they could have issues with you or not, people have had issues with me and not, but what's undeniable are returns.

而把任何你拥有的资产——注意力、名气、过往业绩、技术经验，不管是什么——转化为结果，这本身就说明了一切。

And the ability to convert whatever asset you have, attention, fame, track record, technical experience, whatever, into results really does speak for itself.

因为我觉得投资者有一个很好的倾向，那就是除了回报，他们对其他事情的记忆都非常短暂。

Because that's the one thing I think investors have a very good tendency to do, is they have an extremely short memory for everything other than returns.

我觉得这也是其中之一——从我们第一张支票到现在已经12年了，基金成立也有7年了，但我还是觉得自己是个新人。

And I think that's one of the-- It's been 12 years since our first check and seven years since we started the fund, and I still feel like the new kid on the block.

我觉得现在面临的挑战，我相信你们在上面已经讨论过很多次了，就是现在有太多的资金涌入各个领域，所以不仅仅是投资一家你知道会因为参与的人而估值上涨的公司。

And I feel like what's challenging right now, and I'm sure you guys have discussed this ad nauseam up here, is just there is so much liquidity going into everything right now that it's not just about riding in a company that you know is going to get marked up just by virtue of the people involved.

我觉得这是困难的地方，但也是作为一个好的管理者的责任，那就是真正投资于那些看起来真实、有实体的想法、创始人和企业，而不是风险投资中那些炒作的部分，那部分也很重要。

And I think that's the hard part, but also the responsibility of being a good manager, which is really investing in ideas, founders, businesses that feel real and tangible versus the hypey side of venture, which is very relevant.

说实话，你可以出去投资一家——有很多公司你会觉得，"我知道这家公司肯定会估值上涨，但我就是看不到这家公司长期的愿景。"

And you could honestly go out here, invest in a-- There's a ton of companies where you're like, "I know this is just going to get marked up, but I just don't see the vision long term for where this company heads."

我觉得这就是挑战，作为一个人，是的，我喜欢那些结果，TVBI看起来总是很好，但真正要押注的是一个更大的愿景。

And I think that's the challenge as someone that, yes, I love those results, the TVBI always looks great, but really betting on a bigger vision idea.

显然，当时的Airbnb、Uber，Jason，你投资的时候，那都不是显而易见的决定。

Obviously, Airbnb at the time, Uber, when you did it, Jason, that was a non-obvious decision.

你说得对——

To your point-

……

...

我介绍了21位天使投资人给Travis，其中19位拒绝了。三位同意了。

I introduced 21 angel investors to Travis, and 19 said no. Three said yes.

我和萨希尔，

Me, Saahil-

太厉害了

Incredible

还有班尼斯特，和第一轮资本，还有——

... Bannister, and First Round Capital, and-

你觉得他们为什么拒绝，而你们却同意了？

Why do you think they said no and you guys said yes?

我可以告诉你原因。

I can tell you the reasons.

他们说：“嗯，这在现实世界里是个不太干净的生意。

They said, "Well, this is a dirty business in the real world.

我们不想掺和进去。

We don't want to be involved in it.

我们只投资软件公司。”

We invest in software companies.

一位非常著名的风险投资家告诉我：“如果你能说服特拉维斯把软件卖给出租车公司，我们就投资。”

A very famous venture capitalist told me, "If you can convince Travis to just sell the software to the cab companies, we'll back it.

但我们不想涉足那个肮脏的现实世界业务，因为万一有人被优步撞了死了，我们就要负责。

But we don't want to be in that dirty real-world business because somebody's going to get hit by an Uber and die, and then we're going to be on the hook for it.

这太复杂了。

It's too complicated.

太脏了。”

It's too dirty."

罗宾汉也是同样的情况。

And Robinhood was the same thing.

他们看了罗宾汉，嘲笑那家公司，而我们在他们推出之前就已经投资了。

They looked at Robinhood, and they laughed at that company, and we were in that company before they launched.

我记得那家公司融资种子轮和A轮的时候，完全是个笑话。

I remember when that company was raising its seed Series A, it was a total joke.

人们都说：“这是最蠢的事情。”

People were like, "This is the dumbest thing."

这不是一个——

It's not a-

那是个巨大的错误。

It was a huge mistake.

我跟你说说我在Robinhood上做错了什么。

I'll tell you what I made wrong in Robinhood.

纯粹是我自己的自负。

It was purely my own ego.

他们有一个几百万人的注册名单，我们的一位合伙人非常坚持要投资这家公司。

They had a sign-up list of some number of millions of people, and one of our principals was really adamant that we invest in this business.

而我过不去的坎是我之前在Facebook的经历，以及我如何帮助设计了它的增长机制，这违背了我太多的先验认知，我就是绕不过去。

And what I couldn't get over was my own previous experience at Facebook and how I had helped architect its growth mechanism, and it violated too many priors for me, and I just couldn't get around it.

当你回头看，那是一个十亿美元的错误，太糟糕了。

And when you look at that, that's a billion-dollar mistake, which is horrible.

顺便说一句，我对此深有同感。

By the way, I really resonate with that.

我们不投资任何音乐应用或任何相关的领域。

We don't invest in any music apps or anything related-

那太接近了。

It's almost too close

……几乎接近娱乐业了。

... almost to entertainment.

因为我对这些机会很难不持悲观态度。

Because I have a very hard time sort of not being a pessimist about these opportunities.

我觉得你必须，我不想称之为盲目乐观，但——

And I think you have to, I don't want to call it blind optimism, but-

对。

No

……务实的乐观。

... pragmatic optimism.

任何让你亏过钱的投资，你就再也不会碰那个领域了。

Any investment you've made where you've lost money, you never invest in that space again.

这种情况太常见了，人们——

It's so common that people-

或者如果你成功过，那就离——太近了。

Or if you've had success, it's just too close to-

比如，“我们要把经理换掉”，然后你会想，“什么？

Like, "Oh, we're going to get rid of the manager," and you're like, "What?

不可能。”

No chance."

这些都是你经历过的事情。

These things you experience.

能打破所有这些偏见的关键，就是了解这个人有多能干，有多坚韧，有多有动力。

The one thing that will cut through all of that bias is just understanding how capable this person is, and how difficult and driven they are.

这才是核心。

And that is at the core.

当我见到Vlad和他的合伙人时，他们说：“我们要让千禧一代投资，而且我们要让他们免费投资。”我当时心里想：“这些人太了不起了。”

When I met Vlad and his partner, and they said, "We're going to get millennials to invest, and we're going to do it because they're going to invest for free," all I thought to myself is, "These guys are extraordinary.

他们太聪明了，而且是量化专家，现在他们要开发这个应用。

They're so smart, and they're quants, and now they're going to build this app."

万一成功了呢？

What if it works?

这就是那个难题，要停下来想一想：如果这真的成功了，世界会变成什么样？

And that is the hard question, is to just pause for a second and say, "If this does work, what does the world look like?"

现在Robinhood已经成立超过10年了，我一股都没卖过。

And now we're over 10 years in Robinhood, and I've never sold a share.

实际上，当股价跌到9美元的时候，我又在公开市场买了很多。

In fact, I bought a lot of shares when it was $9 a share on the public market again.

你还没卖？

You've still not sold?

还是一股都没卖。

Still haven't sold a single share.

这些年我卖了不少Uber的股票，因为那时候它占了我净资产的99%，不卖不行，但我还是持有不少。

I've sold a lot of Uber over the years because it was 99% of my net worth at one point, and it was no choice but to do that, but I still hold a lot.

而且Robinhood是一家非常特别的公司，因为现在有两代人在使用它，而Vlad一直在推出下一个垂直领域——

And Robinhood's a very special company because now you have two generations of people on it, and Vlad keeps launching the next vertical-

完全同意

Totally

……下一个垂直领域，再下一个垂直领域。

... the next vertical, the next vertical.

完全同意。

Totally.

只要他还在经营这家公司，并且拥有产品愿景和执行能力，这些东西是无法伪造的。

Until he's not running that company and he doesn't have the product vision and execution, those things can't be faked.

执行力是无法伪造的。

Execution cannot be faked.

这里有一个有趣的观察，我不确定它是否属实。

Here's an interesting observation, not sure if it's true or not.

当你观察某个资产类别的伟大投资者时，通常会发现他们对那个资产类别没有先入为主的观念。

When you look at the great investors of an asset class, it is usually the case that they have no priors in that asset class.

迈克·莫里茨以前是记者，对吧？

Mike Moritz was a journalist, right?

完全正确。

Totally.

约翰·多尔是卖英特尔芯片的。

John Doerr was Intel chip sales.

看看他们在互联网领域砍了多少柴。

And look at the wood that they chopped in the internet.

没有先入为主的观念。

No priors.

再看看现在这一代正在崛起的超级投资者。

If you look at this next current generation of people coming up that are super investors.

所以，保持距离是有道理的。

So there is something to be said for being far away-

但要有好奇心，有建立人脉的能力，还要能批判性地思考问题，我觉得这非常重要。

... but having that curiosity and the ability to network and the ability to think critically about a problem, I think that's a very good thing to do.

你们现在怎么考虑——当我选择要加入的风险基金时，我有这四个D。

How are you guys now thinking about-- When I pick venture funds to be in, I have these four Ds.

项目来源，你们已经有了。

Deal flow, you guys got that.

决策能力，你们显然非常敏锐，而且在个人职业方面也很精明。

Decision making, you're very sharp, obviously, and you're very astute in terms of your own careers.

但接下来就是加码的问题，什么时候加码投资，以及什么时候分配，什么时候卖出股份。

But then there becomes a doubling down and when to double down an investment, and then when to distribute, when to sell shares in it.

如果你们现在到了第十年，你们就正处于那个阶段。

You're actually at that point now if you're at year 10.

你们怎么考虑是否加码投资？

How do you think about doubling down on an investment or not?

然后你们怎么考虑分配、过早卖出，这实际上在某些情况下是你们在这个行业成功的关键？

And then how are you thinking about distribution, selling too early, which is actually how you're successful in this business, in some cases?

这是个非常好的问题，我们快进入第七年了。

It's a really good question, and we're coming up on our seventh year.

我们其实刚刚经历了我们第一只基金里一家公司的首次真正的流动性事件。

We actually just had one of our first proper liquidity events with a fund one company.

特别感谢Underdog Fantasy。

Shout out to Underdog Fantasy.

哪家公司？

What company?

Underdog Fantasy。

Underdog Fantasy.

哦，好的。

Oh, okay.

卖给了IG International，结果非常好。

Sold to IG International, which was a great outcome.

那天给有限合伙人发通知的感觉有多棒——

How great is that day to send your LPs a-

感觉太棒了。

Amazing feeling.

那种感觉太棒了。

Amazing feeling.

而且我觉得，我们经常思考这个问题，因为在我看来，我们已经完成了商业模式的75%，但我们真的需要把现金还给投资者。

And I think partially, we think about this a lot because in my mind, it's like we've made 75% of the business model, but we really need to get the cash back to our investors.

否则，到头来这一切都没有意义。

Otherwise, none of this really matters at the end of the day.

但我确实经常思考那些人的背景，尤其是在第一支和第二支基金早期投资我们的人。

But I do think a lot about the profile of the people, and especially early on in funds one and fund two, who invested with us.

他们跟我们合作，通常不是为了求稳。

And then they're not here really generally to play it safe with us.

所以我觉得我们有更多自由去坚持那些赢家。

So I think we have a little bit of more liberty to ride out the winners.

但我觉得就是这样。

But I think that's exactly that.

就像你必须真正参与到这些公司中去。

It's like you have to really be involved in these companies.

基金一里的Dandy，那是一家很棒的公司，每年都在翻倍增长，最近刚开始国际扩张。

Dandy in fund one, which is an amazing company that continues to double every single year, just started international expansion.

你就像在说：'我要一直骑下去，直到轮子掉下来。'

You're just like, "I'm riding this thing till the wheels fall off."

但我觉得，考虑到现在AI的形势，以及涌入其中的所有资本，还有围绕它的各种外部讨论。

But I think in the context of where AI is today and all the capital flowing into it, and then all the external conversations around it.

我每天醒来都会想，你也许可以建立一个商业模式，专注于参与竞争激烈的A轮融资，增加价值，然后在B轮或C轮退出。这就是你稳赚不赔的法则。

I wake up every day and I'm like, you could probably build a business model about getting into super serious competitive series As, adding value, and just getting out of the series B or C. And just that is your guaranteed rule.

但我们不是这么做的。

That's not what we're doing.

但我认为关注这些信号很重要。

But I think it's important to pay attention to those signals.

实际上，我觉得我们投资组合里有几家公司，我不点名，观察它们在融资前的需求、价格确定后，以及在新价格下围绕该公司的氛围，是很有趣的。

And I actually think there's a few companies in our portfolio that I won't name, where it's interesting to watch the demand before a round, and then the price gets set, and then the feeling around that company at that new price.

然后要么需求再次增长，要么就维持现状。

And then either the demand sort of builds again, or it kind of stays where it is.

关注这种信号、供需和市场的感受，真的很有意思。

And it's very interesting to pay attention to the sort of signal, supply, and demand feeling.

显然，在二级市场，我每天都会收到Setter的邮件，还有这些二级市场的流动性机会。

Obviously, the secondary, I get Setter emails every day and these secondary market opportunities to get liquidity.

但我觉得这正是你需要花大量时间做尽职调查的地方，真正去理解这些企业的潜力。

But I think that's where you need to spend a lot of time on the underwriting and try to really understand the potential of these businesses.

在追加投资方面，关键是要把资金集中在你最看好的赢家上。

On the follow-on piece, it's all about concentrating in your winners.

我觉得这是一种需要时间学习的技能，也需要经验才能有胆量做出这样的判断。

I think that's a skill that takes time to learn and experience to have the balls to know what that is.

我要感谢Brian Singerman，他曾经花两个小时给我讲追加投资的重要性，我觉得我们在这方面已经做得更好了。

I want to credit Brian Singerman to lecturing me for two hours once about the importance of follow-on, and I think we've gotten better.

但你可以把这一点设计到你的基金结构里。

But you can architect it into your fund.

Founders Fund在很多方面都很出色，但其中一点是，他们强制你在投资组合中找出那个最突出的项目，然后说：‘好，我们要把25%的资金投进去。’

Founders Fund, I think what's brilliant about them on many dimensions, but one is they force you to find the one in the portfolio and say, "Great, we're going to put 25% of the capital in."

每个基金都是这样。

Every fund.

每个基金都是这样。

Every fund.

你必须找到一个。

You've got to find one.

正如你所说，如果你被迫坐在那里，必须去承销一个项目，不管是你的项目还是其他合伙人的项目，然后砍掉其他所有项目，这确实非常吓人。

Which to your point, is incredibly scary if you're forced to sit there and you have to underwrite a deal, your deal, the other partner's deal, and cut everything else.

这简直就像——

It's like literally-

确实吓人。

It's scary

就像在说，'我要去这个创始人家住下。'

... it's like saying, "I'm going to go live at this founder's."

所以实际上，我打算在未来三个月里成为这家公司的员工，想办法获得足够的筹码，说服他们基本上接受这么大一笔投资，而这并不是我们过去有很多经验做的事情。

So I'm actually going to become an employee of this company for the next three months and figure out a way to have the leverage to convince them to basically put that size of check in, which isn't something we've traditionally had a lot of experience doing in the past.

但我觉得回头看，信号其实一直都在。

But I think when I look back, the signals were always there.

我一直知道哪些项目我们本该那样做的。

I always knew the ones that we should've been doing that with.

只是我觉得我们是在一步步地，让自己慢慢适应到那个位置，有勇气去理解这些事背后那些无形的信号，让一切变得显而易见。

It's just, I think we're just taking the steps, I think one at a time to get comfortable to a place where you have the guts and sort of understand the intangible signals around these things that make it obvious.

但你想过做成长基金吗？

But have you thought about doing a growth fund?

因为有些人会那样做，他们会设立一个平行基金，这样就能投入大量资金，而不是把主基金集中起来。

Because some people do that where they'll have the sidecar where they'll be able to put a ton of capital in versus concentrating the main fund.

查马斯。

Chamath.

你说吧。

Go for it.

对，我们经常讨论这个。

Yeah, we debate this all the time.

我们正在逐步向增长基金的方向发展。

We're growing into the idea of a growth fund.

另一个非常优雅的选择是SPV，我可以和你交流一下相关经验。

The other option that is very elegant is SPVs, and I can trade notes with you on it.

完全同意。

Totally.

但这对我们来说效果很好，而且有一件事正在开始发生，你很快也会遇到，那就是如果你做得好，你会积累一批有限合伙人。

But it's worked pretty elegantly for us, and one of the things that's starting to happen, which you're going to experience shortly, is if you do the job right, you'll curate a bunch of LPs.

我们有很多家族办公室想做后期投资，所以他们对Zipline、Vast和Atom的交易非常感兴趣，这些是我们做过的，然后我还有早期投资者。

We have a bunch of family offices who want to do late stage, so they're very interested in the Zipline deal, the Vast deal, the Atom's deal that we did, and then I have early-stage investors.

我们有一家突破的公司，Go.ai，我们有早期投资者投资了不到1000万美元，他们想要一些流动性，也确实有一些流动性。

We had a company that broke out, Go.ai, and we had early-stage investors who invested sub $10 million who wanted some liquidity, and there was some liquidity.

我们适度卖出了一些，然后有很多后期基金想买。

We were modest sellers, and then we had so many late-stage funds that wanted to buy it.

我们也在买入

We were also buying

在最近一轮融资中，估值达到了五到六亿美元。

At the latest round at 500, 600 million.

红杉资本现在也遇到了这种情况，Founders Fund 也是如此。

Sequoia's having this happen now, and so is Founders Fund.

他们一边在投资公司，比如 Stripe 或 SpaceX 等，一边也在出售股份。

They are buying, they're investing in companies, whether it's Stripe or SpaceX, et cetera, and they're also selling at the same time.

因为公司上市前的时间越来越长，你实际上可以同时发展这两块业务——

And because companies are staying long for so long, you can actually build both of those parts of the business-

合二为一。

... into one.

我认为这就是风险投资的未来方向：你只需要十个人就能打造一个非常出色的后期投资业务。

And I think that's where venture is going, is you could have a very nice late-stage business with just your top 10 people.

这些公司现在的规模和体量让我感到非常震撼。

I'm blown away by the size and scale of these companies now.

说“十亿”这个词，即使在十年前或十二年前，也只会出现在像“你舔一下地面，我就给你十亿美元”这样的玩笑话里。

Saying the word billion, even 12 years ago or 10 years ago, was the thing you would said where you're like, "Will you lick the pavement and I'll give you a billion dollars."

那真是个不合理的数字。

It was such an irrational number.

现在它已经达到十亿美元的收入了。

And now it's a billion in revenue.

我觉得现在独角兽的定义真的应该改改了，不应该看估值，而应该看收入。

I think being a unicorn now really should be redefined, not on the valuation, on the revenue.

我认为独角兽应该是收入达到十亿美元的公司。

I consider unicorns a billion in revenue.

我不再关心纸面上的估值了。

I don't care about the paper value anymore.

我想看到实际收入，我们有一家公司刚刚达到七亿美元的收入。

I want to see, and we have one company that's just hit 700 million in revenue.

我就说，'好吧，还差三亿美元。'

I'm like, "Okay, 300 million more to go.

'你就成为独角兽了。'

You'll be a unicorn."

我觉得理解这一点非常重要，回到那个次要的问题，以及你退出的时候，因为归根结底，有时候你只是在传递袋子。

And I think that understanding that is really important, going back to the secondary sort of question and when you get out, because at the end of the day, you're just passing bags around sometimes in these instances.

而现在发生的这些双重、三重分层交易，我完全理解红杉、Benchmark、Index、Kleiner 的立场，因为我觉得他们的资金成本不一定和其他人一样。

And these double, triple tranche deals that are happening right now, which I honestly completely understand from the Sequoia, Benchmark, Index, Kleiner perspective, because I don't feel like their cost of capital is the same necessarily as everyone else's.

但是那些在第二层交易上加码的人，支付了很高的溢价，有时是公司初始估值的两到三倍，而底层表现根本没有变化。

But the guy piling on on that second tranche is paying a significant markup, sometimes two or three X what the company is initially valued at, for absolutely no change in underlying performance.

这就是泡沫——

That's bubble-

百分之百。

100%

——市场行为，顺便说一下。

... market behavior, by the way.

当你看到这种情况，就该记一笔了。

When you see that, that's when you take a little note.

在我们结束之前，也许最后一个问题。

As we wrap, maybe a final question.

你们还在表演吗？

Do you guys still perform?

还在表演？

Still perform?

是的，偶尔会。

Yeah, every now and then.

为你们表演？

For you guys?

嗯，是的。

Well, yeah.

我们会破例一次，然后——

We'll make an exception and-

你们今晚有什么安排？

What are you guys doing tonight?

你们今晚有计划吗？

You guys have any plans tonight?

我们会过去的。

We'll come by.

你们带U盘了吗？

Do you guys have a thumb drive with you?

如果弗里德伯格能告诉我们去哪儿的话。

If Friedberg can tell us where we're going.

因为我给你发过短信，就像……

Because I've texted you like-

我给你带了龙舌兰酒。

I got tequila for you.

会很棒的。

It'll be great.

我们之前会一起喝一瓶龙舌兰。

We'll share a bottle of tequila before.

我想尝尝，我还没喝过你们的龙舌兰呢。

I want to try, I haven't tried you guys' tequila yet.

好喝吗？

Is it good?

哦，弗里德伯格今晚要在舞池里大显身手了，大家小心点。

Oh, Friedberg is going to break it down tonight on the dance floor, so watch out, everybody.

你们做得真的很棒。

It's really impressive what you guys have done.

谢谢你们邀请我们。

Thanks for having us.

干得漂亮，各位。

Well done, gentlemen.

这个模式反复出现，就是说你有了关注度和名气，然后你发展出一些专长，接着你得把它转化成某种东西。

It's the same pattern over and over again, meaning you have some attention and fame, you develop some mastery, and then you've got to translate it into something.

但我想就说到这里吧。

But I think I'll leave it on this note.

很高兴看到人们能转化这些。

Great to see people translate.

名人特别擅长说，‘哦，这个好闪亮’，‘我对这个很兴奋’。

Celebrities are so good at being like, "Oh, this is shiny," and, "I'm excited by this."

但三个月之后，那股新鲜劲儿就过去了——

But after three months, that shininess wears off-

……剩下的就只有让事情成功所需要的实实在在的努力。

... and all you're stuck with is the actual hard work that goes into making anything successful.

我觉得这一直是我们之间的区别，就是说——

And I think that's always been our difference, which is like-

你们付出了努力。

You put in the work

……我们其实不在乎头三个月。

... we don't actually care about the first three months.

付出努力。

Put in the work.

去做事。

Do the work.

你是一夜之间就成功了十五年。

You're an overnight 15-year success.

就是这样。

There we go.

好的。

All right.

谢谢大家。

Thank you, guys.

恭喜各位。

Congrats, guys.

让我们为烟鬼组合鼓掌。

Give it up for The Chainsmokers.

啊，太棒了。

Ah, boom.

那太厉害了。

That's awesome.

是的，我们还会再拿几个其他的——

Yeah, we'll take a couple other-

那太好了。

That's great.

非常好。

Very good.

非常好。

Very good