雷·达里奥：我们的体系岌岌可危——债务、人工智能与摧毁罗马的循环

雷·达利奥，欢迎再次做客《All In》播客。

Ray Dalio, welcome back to the All In Podcast.

第三次一定行。

Third time's the charm.

感谢你来到这里。

Thanks for being here.

每次来这里都特别开心。

It's always a a blast to be here.

谢谢你邀请我。

Thank you for having me.

我们上次的对话非常受欢迎，而且恰逢其时，因为那是在特朗普总统就职几天后，你当时对新政府提供了一些极具预见性的见解，我认为这些观点对我们所有人来说都非常有帮助，值得记录下来。

The last conversation we had was so popular and it was so timely because it was just a few days actually after the inauguration of president Trump, and you had provided some very kind of prescient outlooks for the administration that I think we all thought would be very helpful to get on the record.

当时，你强调了——这一点你已经关注很久了——我们正处于一个巨大的债务周期中，财政和货币政策正在推动这一债务周期，并提出建议：如果我们能将赤字占GDP的比例降至大约3%，或许就能实现更平稳的过渡。

At the time, you had highlighted and and as you have been for some time, this great debt cycle we're in, the fiscal and monetary policy issues that are driving that debt cycle, and provided some input that if we were able to cut our deficit to GDP to roughly 3%, we may have a shot at a smoother transition here.

如今，国会预算办公室估计，2026年的赤字占GDP比例约为6%。

Today, the CBO estimates that the 2026 deficit to GDP is about 6%.

我在这里全力以赴。

I'm going all here.

如果你今天从零开始构建一个全球金融系统，你不会基于50年前的陈旧系统，你会选择Airwallex。

If you were building a global financial system from first principles today, you wouldn't build it on 50 year old legacy rails, you'd build Airwallex.

这是一个集全球账户、卡片和支付于一体的单一平台，将整个世界视为本地市场。

It's the single platform for global accounts, cards, and payments that treats the entire world like a local market.

停止为陈旧系统支付额外成本，立即前往airwallex.com/all-in，构建未来。

Stop paying the legacy tax and start building the future at airwallix.com slash all in.

Airwallex，构建未来。

Airwallix, build the future.

所以，我第一个问题是，回顾过去一年政府的作为、国会的行动以及经济状况，我们走在正确的道路上吗？

So the first question I have for you looking back on the past year of the administration and the actions of congress and the economy, are we on a good path?

我们现在的路径和一年前相比有没有什么不同？

Are we on no different a path than we were say a year ago?

我们的进展是不是太慢了？

Are we moving too slowly?

我研究过过去五百年来的这些重大历史周期，其中有五大相互交织的力量决定了你问题的答案，那就是债务与货币因素，我稍后会详细解释。

I've studied these big cycles in history going back five hundred years and there are five big forces that are intertwined to determine the answer to your question which is there's the debt money one and I'll I'll take you into that in a minute.

还有国内的差距，即财富和价值观的鸿沟，这导致了左右派之间不可调和的分歧，影响了税收、民主以及一切事务的运作方式。

There is the domestic gaps, the wealth and values gaps that are causing irreconcilable differences between the left and the right that is affecting how taxes, democracy and everything works.

还有国际上的大国冲突，即新兴大国挑战现有大国，从而改变国际秩序的经典模式。

There's the international great power conflict, the classic rising of a great power, challenging existing great power, and changing the international world order.

然后是技术，贯穿这些周期的始终都有技术变革，还有自然灾害，比如干旱、洪水和大流行病。

Then there's technology all through these cycles there have been technology, and then there's acts of nature, droughts, floods, and pandemics.

当我们谈论秩序时，指的是始终存在一种货币秩序，而所有货币秩序都因相同的原因崩溃了。

So and when we think of orders, we're talking about there's always a monetary order, and all monetary orders have broken down for the same reasons.

所有国内政治秩序也都会发生变化。

All political orders, domestic political orders, they all always change.

在美国，这种情况较少见，我们这里维持了两百五十年，但它们终究都会改变，期间发生过一次内战。

In The United States less so, we have two fifty years here, but they always change, there was one civil war in there.

而在国际层面，秩序总是会变化，所有秩序都会更迭。

And then they but internationally they always change, all orders change.

国际地缘政治秩序正从多边转向单边，正在发生变化，技术当然也在改变。

And the international geopolitical order going from a multilateral to a unilateral world order is changing, and certainly technology's changing.

好的，既然已经明确了这些因素，现在我来解释政府的财政状况，以回答你的问题。

Okay, so getting that fact that they're all on them, now I'll go down to explain the government's finances and answer your question.

一个国家的经济本质上与公司或个人的经济相同，只是政府有能力印钞。

The economics of a country are basically the same as the economics of a company or an individual except the government has a ability to print money.

把它想象成一家公司，或者你自己的情况。

Look at it like a company or like your own.

预计支出约为7万亿美元，收入约为5万亿美元，因此赤字占支出的40%。

Basically, it's projected to spend about $7,000,000,000,000, take in about $5,000,000,000,000, so it's running a 40% deficit, 40% of its spending.

它长期处于赤字状态，因此债务规模达到年收入的600%，即收入的六倍，我们可以预测这个数字。

It's been running deficits for a long time, so it has a debt that is 600%, six times the amount of money that it takes in, and we can project that number.

债务周期的问题在于，你可以看到它们发生，它们几乎就像人体的循环系统，资本市场将信贷输送到经济的各个部分，如果信贷被用于生产性投资并产生足以偿还债务的收入，那就是一个健康的过程。

The problem with debt cycles, and you can see them transpire, they're almost like the circulatory system of the body, the capital markets bring credit to different parts of the economy and if that credit is used to be productive and produces an income that pays for the debt service, it's a healthy process.

但实际情况是，如果债务偿还相对于收入增长，而收入又不足以覆盖债务，这就像是系统中逐渐形成的斑块，挤占了其他支出。

But what happens is that if the income the debt service grows relative to the income because it's not paying for it, it's like a plaque in the system growing up and it squeezes out spending.

因此，我们现在面临2万亿美元的赤字，其中一半是利息支付，此外我们还需要滚动偿还已累积并即将到期的9万亿美元债务。

And so we now have that $2,000,000,000,000 deficit, half of that is interest payments, plus we have to roll over $9,000,000,000,000 of debt that has been accumulated and is maturing.

好的。

Okay.

所以，如果你把一家公司或个人看成这样，就会遇到同样的问题。

So now if you were to look at a company like that or an individual like that, you have that problem.

因此，作为参考，GDP的3%左右可以在一定程度上稳定这一局面。

So as a handy number, 3% of GDP would sort of stabilize the situation.

这是非常不健康的状态。

Very unhealthy condition.

这不仅因为支出被挤压而不健康，还因为存在供给和需求的问题。

It's not just unhealthy because it's squeezing out those spendings, but also because there's a supply and a demand.

换句话说，你必须滚动偿还即将到期的9万亿美元债务，同时还要再发行约2万亿美元的新债务，大致如此。

In other words, you have to roll over the $9,000,000,000,000 of debt that's coming due, and you have to sell 2,000,000,000,000 more, something like that.

明白吗？

Okay?

所以现在你去找买家。

So now you go to the buyers.

那么买家是谁呢？

And the buyers, who are the buyers?

有一些国内买家，也有一些外国买家，大约三分之一是外国买家，现在从他们的角度来看，情况变得更加危险了。

There are some domestic buyers and there are foreign buyers, about a third are foreign buyers, and now it's a riskier situation from their point of view.

首先，这是一笔庞大的投资，风险更高。

It's riskier first of all, it's a lot to acquire.

他们持有的美元计价债务已经占其投资组合的很大比例，远高于基于审慎原则应有的水平。

They dollar denominated debt is already a large percentage of their portfolio, larger than it would be if just decided on on a prudent basis.

此外，我们还面临地缘政治风险，这可能导致债务国和债权国之间发生冲突。

But also we have political geopolitical risks that also extend to possibly the risks that the debtor and the creditor will have a conflict.

你可以想象一下与中国的情况，甚至与欧洲的情况也是如此。

You can imagine that with China, you can imagine that with Europe even.

欧洲人可能会担心自己是否会遭到制裁。

And you know, Europeans could wonder whether they will get sanctioned.

换句话说，债务偿付可能会因为制裁而无法进行，美国必须担心是否能收回这笔钱。

In other words, the debt service payments might not be made as a sanction, and The United States has to worry about whether it's gonna bring in that money.

现在我所描述的这些情况在历史上反复发生过。

Now the things that I'm describing have happened repeatedly through history.

换句话说，我并不是凭空捏造这些内容。

So in other words, I'm not just making this stuff stuff up.

如果你回顾1929年到1945年这段时期，就会看到这种动态，以前也出现过。

If you were to see particularly, you know, in the nineteen twenty nine to forty five period, you saw this dynamic, you saw it before.

因此，这种财务问题本身对美国政府就不健康，但更麻烦的是，其他因素加剧了这一问题。

So there was this financial piece which in and of itself is not healthy for the US government, but it's also problematic because of the other factors compounding the problem.

你指出了这个问题，你提出了一种诊断：如果我们能将增长率提升到3%，就能缓解影响，但这种情况并未发生。

You highlighted this problem, you provided a diagnosis that if we could get to three percent, we could soften the effects, but it hasn't happened.

去年这个时候，我们所有人都充满希望，因为埃隆·马斯克决定领导政府效率部（DOGE），他打算大刀阔斧地改革，削减政府开支，打击欺诈、浪费和滥用行为等等。

We were all very hopeful last year around this time when Elon Musk decided to lead DOGE, the Department of Government Efficiency, he was gonna go in and there were gonna be these kind of big sweeping changes to reduce government spending, find fraud, waste, and abuse, and so on.

DOGE的失败是因为采取的措施错了，还是因为在这个周期节点上，整个系统已经无法被改变？

Did Doge fail because the actions that were taken were wrong, or did Doge fail because the system itself cannot be changed at this point in the cycle?

资本流动过多，经济对其依赖过重，太多个人和企业都依赖它，因此从结构上讲，我们不可能摆脱这种局面。

That there's too much capital flowing, the economy is too dependent on it, there are too many individuals and businesses that are dependent on it, and it's structurally impossible to pull our way out of it.

我的意思是，Doge 是否告诉我们，在这个阶段什么是可能的？

I mean does Doge tell us something about what's possible at this stage?

是的，你谈的是如何让一个低效的政府变得高效。

Yeah, you're talking about taking an inefficient government and making it efficient.

明白吗？

Okay?

而且必须快速完成，因为选举即将到来，如果人们不喜欢，你就会失去授权。

And having to do it quick because there are elections and if people don't like it then you know you lose your mandate.

在一个无论你做什么都会遭到批评和攻击的社会里。

And in a society in which no matter what you do you're criticized and torn down.

所以我们要面对的问题是，民主和我们的制度是否有利于那种既高效又能让所有人接受的领导方式。

So you know we have the fact of the question of does democracy and our system lend itself toward the sort of executive leadership that both makes it efficient and makes it acceptable for all people.

当时有很多削减，比如学校午餐计划之类的，然后试图进行精准削减。

You know, there was a lot of cutbacks, know, things like school lunch programs and things, know, and then trying to do it surgically.

所以你该如何有效地、迅速地完成这件事，同时又不至于引发如此大的争议而导致政府垮台？

So it's how do you do that effectively, quickly in a manner that doesn't cause so much controversy that the government falls.

所以如果你看看历史，这就是为什么我要谈政治；如果你研究历史，甚至只是凭常识思考，你会想：你真的能拥有那种既能让人满意、又能迅速推进的领导力吗？我认为这简直是个难以实现的壮举。

So if you look at history, that's why I deal with the political, if you deal with history and you deal just even common sense, think you know like are you gonna have the executive leadership that's going to be able to make this satisfactory with most people, you know, and do that quickly, I think that's that's a hell of a of a trick to pull off.

对。

Right.

所以从结构上讲，这个阶段可能确实有点困难。

So it might just be structurally it's a little difficult at this stage.

这话说得也太轻描淡写了。

What an understatement.

从结构上讲，这个阶段确实有点困难。

Structurally a little difficult at this stage.

是的。

Yeah.

最近还有一条大新闻，明尼苏达州可能涉及大量公共资金欺诈，有些托儿所根本不存在，但数十亿美元却流向个人去运营这些虚构的托儿所；现在，全国各地都兴起了一种公民新闻运动，揭露联邦支出实际上正被大规模欺诈滥用。

Well there was another big news story recently that there may be quite a lot of fraud going on with public dollars in Minnesota that there are these daycares that don't exist and billions of dollars are flowing to individuals to run these daycares, and now there's a lot of this sort of citizen journalism going on across the country that federal spending is actually being fraudulently abused.

你认为这是这个周期阶段的一个表现吗？

Do you think that this is a symptom of this stage of the cycle?

你如何看待这与我们一般讨论的这个问题之间的关系？

What's your view on how this relates to this problem that we're generally kind of talking about?

是的。

Yeah.

这既是周期的阶段问题，如果你想要某件事得到良好管理，你能指望政府把它管理好吗？

It's both the stage of the cycle and if you're going to have something well managed, are you gonna have the government well manage it?

我的意思是，管理得有多好？你知道，去车管局办个事，它这么大、这么复杂，简直一团糟，当你想到这些，难道对到处都存在这种低效现象感到惊讶吗？

I mean how how how well managed, you know, go to the Department of Motor Vehicles for your It's so big and complex and such a know, such a mess like you know, when you think is this a surprise to you that there's all of this stuff going on all over the place in terms of inefficiency?

这让你感到惊讶吗？

Is that a surprise to you?

不。

No.

但你知道，我想问的是，人们是否开始意识到这个问题？

But you know, I guess the question is are people waking up to this?

因为上次我们交谈时，你提到过你投资组合中的那一部分是黄金。

Because last time we spoke, you highlighted that piece of your portfolio was in gold.

你当时在黄金上投入了不少资金。

You had invested quite a bit in gold.

自我们上次交谈以来，我认为黄金价格已经从每盎司2900美元上涨到了5200美元。

Since we spoke, I think gold has climbed from 2,900 an ounce to 5,200 an ounce.

过去一年里，黄金发生了什么变化？

What has happened with gold over the last year?

是因为市场终于意识到了我们所处的周期阶段——这一点你多年来一直强调过，还是因为中国正在结构性地放弃美元和国债，转而更多地买入黄金，同时其他央行也在增持黄金？

Is it that markets are waking up to the point in the cycle that we're in that you've been highlighting for a number of years at this point, or is it because China is structurally abandoning the US dollar and treasuries and moving more into gold and other central banks are moving into gold?

是因为个人投机者和市场参与者对黄金产生了投机泡沫吗？

Is it because individual speculators and market participants are getting bubbly with gold.

你如何看待黄金近期的走势，以及它与市场对我们所处周期阶段的认知之间的关系？

What's your view on what's gone on with gold and how it relates to the market's acknowledgment of the stage that we're in?

这是大周期的问题，你必须理解的是，黄金并不是像大多数人认为的那样是一种被投机的贵金属。

It's the big cycle and what what you have to understand is that gold is not a precious metal that's speculated on like most people have come to think of it as.

黄金是最成熟的货币，也是各国央行持有的第二大储备货币。

It is the most established money that it's the second largest reserve currency that central banks hold.

因此，由于我前面提到的各种原因——经济、供需、政治和地缘政治因素——各国央行自身一直在增持黄金，而个人和其他投资者也在寻找一种替代性货币。

And so what we've seen is for various reasons that I pretty much covered, the economic, the supply demand, the political, the geopolitical, for those reasons central banks themselves have acquired gold to build that up and individuals and others are looking for an alternative money.

问题是，什么是货币？

The question is what is money?

当我们思考这个问题时，从机制上讲，货币就是债务。

So when we're thinking about this, money, mechanistically money is debt.

我的意思是，如果你持有货币，你持有的其实是某种债务工具；而如果你持有债务工具，你得到的其实是他人承诺向你交付货币的保证，明白吗？

What I mean by that is that if you're holding money, you're holding it in the form of a debt instrument, and if you are holding a debt instrument, what you're getting is a promise from somebody to deliver you money, okay?

正如我开头提到的，当央行债务过多时，它们有权印钞。

And as I mentioned in the beginning, the power of the central banks when they have too much debt is to print money.

好的。

Okay.

如果你理解了这一点，那么你就能明白正在发生什么了，对吧？

So if you've got that down, okay, then you can understand what's happening, okay?

因为问题是，戴夫，你认为哪种货币是安全的？

Because the question is, Dave, what money do you think is safe?

对。

Right.

根据我刚才说的。

Given what I've just said.

好的。

Okay.

是的，要有资产支持。

Yeah, asset back.

对，我想拥有某种资产，希望它有明确的物理数量限制。

Right, want an asset, I wanna have something that's got some physical known limitation to it.

尤其是你希望这种货币能够从一个地方转移到另一个地方，因为货币既是交换媒介，也是价值储藏手段。

And particularly what you want is that can be transferred from one place to another because money is both a medium of exchange and a store hold of wealth.

换句话说，如果一个国家的央行或政府想向另一个国家政府付款，总不能只用建筑物这样的固定资产吧。

So in other words, if you if one country's central bank or government wants to pay another gun government, it can't just be in fixed assets like buildings.

明白吗？

Okay?

如果你想进行交易，就必须用一种可以转移给对方的东西进行交易。

If you wanna transact, you have to transact in something that you can transfer to them and so on.

黄金是唯一一种长期历史性的资产，因为它可以转移，无法被大量印制，而且不依赖于任何人向你提供什么。

And gold is the only asset, it's the long term historic asset for reasons that means that it can be transferred, they can't print a lot of it, and it is not dependent on somebody giving you something.

换句话说，大多数货币——如果你持有债务、股票或其他东西，你实际上持有的是别人承诺给你购买力的保证，明白吗？

In other words, most money, most if you hold debt or you hold stocks or you hold something, you're holding a promise from somebody to give you buying power, okay?

所以，财富和货币之间有一个重要的区别，明白吗？

So you can, like wealth, there's an important thing to distinguish wealth from money, okay?

财富体现在实物上，比如建筑、公司等等。

Wealth is in stuff, it's you know, it's in buildings, it's in companies and so on.

但你不能直接花掉财富。

But you can't spend wealth.

当你想花钱时，这就是货币的作用：你必须先卖掉它，然后才能得到钱来花。

You have to when you wanna spend it, and that's the purpose of money, you have to sell it and then you get money to spend.

而现在，我们的财富相对于货币来说多得惊人，问题是，这些货币到底是什么？

And right now we have an awful lot of wealth relative to money, and the question is what is that money?

当你试图将财富转换为货币时，存在一个风险：他们会印钞，因为自从我们采用法定货币以来，他们一直就是这样做的。

And there's the risk that you go to get, convert your wealth into money, that they're gonna print money because that's what they've always done since we've had fiat currencies.

所以，当你观察并与你认识的所有市场参与者交流时——你知道那些有规模和影响力的人——目前人们将财富或货币转换为黄金的情况如何？

So as you look out and have conversations with all the market participants that you know, and you know everyone that's of size and scale, where are we in terms of folks converting their wealth into gold or their money into gold?

在这一场大规模逃离、争相退出的过程中，以美元计价的黄金市值还需要上涨多少？

Like how much more do we have to run-in terms of the dollar denominated value of gold in the market cycle as this great rush for the doors, rush for the exit happens?

我想到两件事。

Two things that come to mind.

我关注的是，究竟谁拥有哪些资产，包括中央银行。

What I what I look at is literally who has what assets, including like central banks.

货币的构成是什么，以及这种构成是怎样的？

What is the money in and so on, and and what is that mix?

我关注的是财富相对于货币的数量，或者财富相对于黄金的数量。

And I look at the amount of wealth relative to money or I look at the amount of wealth relative to gold.

我们看到，财富总量巨大，而中央银行持有的非硬通货黄金的其他货币也极为庞大。

And what we've seen is that there's an enormous amount of wealth and there was an enormous amount in central banks of the other money relative to hard money gold.

因此，我们看到这一数字从极小增长到了一个相对不那么小的水平。

And so we've seen about what I would call it go from an extremely small number to something that is a less small number.

这种价格上涨和资产构成的变化，已使黄金比例接近但尚未完全达到其历史平均水平。

That price increase and that change in composition has brought it almost, not quite, but almost toward the average of what it's been over a period of time.

所以，这种失衡状态是存在的。

So being out of balance.

然而，由于财富总量相对于货币仍然极其庞大，这确实是个大问题。

However, because the wealth is total wealth is still so large relative to money, that's a real issue.

让我给你举一个实际的例子。

So let me give you a practical example of this.

财富税以及财富本身带来的风险。

Wealth taxes and wealth being a risk.

一个可能被提出的问题是：我们现在是否处于泡沫之中？

One question that might be asked are, are we in a bubble?

换句话说，人工智能股票和其他类似股票是否处于泡沫中？

In other words, are AI stocks and other such stocks in a bubble?

如果你想知道这一点，我们可以深入探讨。

That's a if you wanna get into that, we'll get into that.

但我们从中学到的是，泡沫的一个特征是，人们需要现金，因此不得不出售资产来满足这种需求。

But one of the things that we know from that is that one of the characteristics of bubbles is that there becomes a need for money that requires people to sell their assets to get money to meet that need.

通常，这种需求来自于借钱购买这些资产，对吧？

Now quite often that need comes from borrowing money to buy those assets, okay?

然后资产价格上涨，如此类推。

And then the assets go up in price and and so on.

但问题是，这种情况无法持续，因为你必须偿还债务，而这些资产并不能产生足够的现金流来支付，因此他们不得不开始出售资产；当你因为需要现金来偿还债务，或者支付如今的财富税而不得不出售时，情况就会发生。

But what happens is it can't be sustained because you have to make the debt service payments and they're not throwing off the cash to make that, and so they have to start to sell that and then you and when you have to sell it because you need money, you need cash to pay your debt service, or to pay nowadays wealth taxes.

哦，明白了。

Oh, okay.

所以我们现在有了一个动态过程。

So now we have a dynamic.

当这种动态发生时，泡沫就会破裂。

The bubble will burst as that dynamic takes place.

如果你感兴趣，我们可以讨论关于泡沫的许多事情。

There are a number of things we could talk about about the bubble if you're interested.

但请想象一下，如果你引入财富税的话。

But just imagine if you put in wealth taxes.

每个人都可以谈论他们是否喜欢或不喜欢财富税之类的东西。

Everybody can talk about whether they like or don't like wealth taxes or something.

但任何引入财富税的措施，本身就会引发对财富税的强烈担忧，从而推动资金和财富转向现金。

But anything that you put in wealth taxes and there's a lot of fear of wealth taxes in and of itself, that can drive money, wealth to cash.

而要从财富中获得现金，只有一种方式，那就是出售资产，或者以资产为抵押借款，而这又会引发自身的现金流问题。

And and there's only one way you're gonna get the cash with the wealth, and that's either sell it or to borrow against it which causes its own cash flow issues.

我们还面临一个与社会层面相关的动态，你知道，贫富差距使这个问题具有了政治敏感性。

And we have a dynamic having to do with the social part of this, you know, the wealth gap that makes that politically an issue.

所以，总之，我只想说，人们应该担忧，公司应该担忧，国家也应该担忧：他们是否有足够的黄金？

So anyway, all I'm saying is people should worry and companies should worry or countries should worry, do they have enough gold?

我的意思是，如果你不知道黄金未来会如何走势，也没有对黄金的明确看法，那么你应当将投资组合的5%到15%配置在黄金上，因为黄金与其他资产成分的运作方式就是这样。

I mean if you didn't know what the if you didn't know what gold was likely to do and you had no view on gold, one should have between 515% of their portfolio in gold because of the fact of how it works with the other components.

换句话说，当情况恶化时，黄金是一种很好的分散风险工具——通常来说，其他资产下跌时，黄金反而表现良好。

In other words, it's a diversifier when when the shit hits the fan, okay, gold does well and the other things don't, generally speaking.

由于这种相关性，根据投资组合中其他资产的不同，如果你用优化模型来计算，结果可能会是这样的比例。

And because of that correlation, depending on what else is in the portfolio, if you put it through an optimizer, you'd have something like that.

所以，我并不是在鼓吹大家去买黄金，但我想问的是：什么才是安全的？

So I'm not trying to tout people on buying gold, but I would say, what is safe?

什么才是安全的？

What is safe?

如果你没有任何明确观点，那么安全的配置比例应该在5%到15%之间。

And safe is somewhere, if you had no view, between 515%.

为什么比特币没有以同样的方式表现？

Why hasn't Bitcoin performed in the same way?

自从我们上次交谈以来，黄金上涨了80%，而比特币却下跌了25%。

In the same period that gold's climbed 80% since we last talked, Bitcoin's down 25%.

你对比特币发生的事情怎么看？为什么它没有发挥许多人预期的避险资产作用？

What's your view on what's happened with Bitcoin and why that hasn't played the role that many thought it was gonna play which is the safe haven asset.

比特币有一些重要的区别特征，而且还要考虑谁拥有它，以及他们为什么买入或卖出。

There's an important differentiating characteristics of Bitcoin and then there's also, you know, like who owns it and why they buy it, why they bought and sell.

比特币没有隐私性。

Okay, so bitcoin does not have privacy.

任何交易都可以被监控，甚至可能被间接控制。

Any transactions can be monitored and then indirectly perhaps controlled.

央行不会愿意购买并持有比特币。

Central banks are not going to wanna buy bitcoin and being able to hold it.

所以不仅仅是个人，还有机构等等，尤其是央行，这些都涉及比特币的某些特性。

So it's not just individuals, it's institutions and so on, but most you know, and central banks so that there are attributes of that.

人们也提出了一些疑问或思考，比如量子计算等新技术的发展。

There has been some question or thoughts of the development of you know, new technologies like quantum computing and so on.

这方面会不会出现问题？

Can there be issues regarding that?

还有，谁拥有它，以及他们在投资组合中的其他敞口是什么。

And then there's you know, who owns it and what are the other exposures that they have in their portfolio.

它往往与科技股有很高的相关性。

It tends to have a pretty high correlation with the tech stocks.

所以从所有权角度来看，供需会受到这样的影响：如果某人在某一方面被逼仓，就会卖出他们持有的其他资产。

So from an ownership, know, just the supply demand is affected by if somebody gets squeezed in one thing they sell something that whatever else they have.

因此存在这些动态因素。

So there are those dynamics.

这是一个漫长的过程，而且市场规模相对较小，也更容易被控制。

It's a long way and it's a relatively small market that's a relatively controllable market.

我认为比特币受到了很多关注，但作为货币，它与黄金相比规模很小，这些就是相关的动态。

I think a lot of attention has been given to Bitcoin but as a money, you know, it's it's it's small in relationship to gold and so you know, those are the dynamics.

黄金只有一种。

There is only one gold.

那白银呢？

What about silver?

我的意思是，过去一年里白银也大幅上涨了。

I mean silver has had a big run up in the past year as well.

白银是黄金的衍生品吗？本质上是人们追随黄金的走势在投机。

Is that a derivative to gold and it's effectively people playing off of the wake of gold's

白银的价格和其生产属于副产品。

Silver price in its production is a residual commodity.

白银的供应很难增加。

The supply of it is difficult to increase.

历史上，就像英镑一样，白银曾被视为货币性商品。

And through history, know, like the pound sterling, silver was perceived as a monetary item.

但它也发展出了自己独立的投机属性。

But it has also taken on a speculative life of its own.

所以你知道，人们追捧它，只是因为它最近很热。

So you know, people are you know, hot in it because it's been hot.

我想稍微换个话题，回到你之前提到的一点：上次我们见面时，你也谈到过，为了应对我们所处周期阶段的影响，确保利率保持低位至关重要。

I just wanna shift gear a little bit back to something you touched on, but the last time we met, you also talked about the importance of making sure that interest rates remained low for us to kind of manage the effect and the impact of the stage of the cycle that we're in.

你今天怎么看利率的现状，以及美联储在过去一年中的行动，相对于我们当前所处周期阶段所需采取的措施而言？

What's your view, I guess, today on where rates are and how the Fed has acted over the past year relative to what needs to be done to soften the effects of the stage in the cycle that we're

？

in?

因为我们有巨额的联邦债务，利率是三大关键考量因素之一。

Because we have so much debt, federal debt, interest rates are one of the three main considerations.

分别是税收、支出，以及债务利息。

There's the taxes, there's spending, and then there's interest rates on the debt.

但你不能人为地将利率压得过低，因为一个人的债务是另一个人的资产。

But you can't make interest rates severely artificially low because one man's debts are another man's assets.

如果对债权人来说利率过低，就会引发我们所熟知的动态效应——即催生更多借贷，资金会流入各类资产，从而助长泡沫。

And if you make those interest rates too low for the creditor, you will produce the dynamic that we understand, in other words you'll produce a lot more borrowing, you'll put it into things, and you can fuel a bubble.

同时，你也不能让利率高到让债务人承受过度压力。

And so at the same time you can't have them so high that the debtor gets squeezed uneffectively.

因此，这需要一种平衡：利率要足够高，以保障债权人的利益，但又不能高到让债务人不堪重负。

So there's a balancing act, know keep them high enough that they're adequate for the creditor but not so high that the debtor.

因此，当你拥有大量债务资产和负债时，因为每一项债务资产都对应一项债务负债，这种平衡就变得极其困难。

So when you have a lot of debt assets and liabilities, because for every debt asset there's a debt liability, and when you have a lot of those that balancing act is is very difficult.

这使得情况更加复杂，因为所谓的‘K型经济’正在发挥作用。

This made more difficult you know because of what's called the k economy, you know.

换句话说，经济中一部分正在出现泡沫，比如人们热议谁会成为首位万亿富翁，以及顶层1%人口的种种现象；与此同时，经济另一部分却存在巨大落差，例如60%的美国人阅读水平低于六年级。

In other words, there are bubble elements that are going on in the part of the economy you know where you know the question is who will be the first to be a trillionaire and that know that top 1% of the population and all of that at the same time as you have the other part of the economy where for example 60% of all Americans have below a sixth grade reading level.

而要让这些人保持生产力，尤其是在人工智能正在取代他们的背景下，实现起来尤为困难。

And and to make them productive, particularly as we are also having AI have replacements for them, is a particularly difficult thing to achieve.

换句话说，当你拥有如此庞大的债务资产与负债，同时又面临顶层与底层60%人口之间如此巨大的境遇差异时，这无异于另一项不可能完成的壮举。

In other words, when you have so much debt assets and liabilities, and then you have such a disparity in conditions between those that are at the top and let's call it the bottom 60% of the population, what that's like, that's you know another hat trick, that's another difficult thing to pull off.

因此，这是一个极具挑战的局面。

So this is a challenging situation.

就货币政策而言，设定一个统一的利率，并实施适用于整体经济、却忽视个体境遇差异的财政与货币政策，如今变得更加困难——事实上，已经更加困难了。

As far as monetary policy exists, the idea of setting an interest rate and having a fiscal policy and a monetary policy that's for the economy as a whole and doesn't deal with the differences in circumstances may be more, well, it is more challenging.

从美联储的行动和市场活动来看，过去一年中，许多全球央行已停止购买美国国债，转而转向黄金。

Well, taking a look at Fed action and market activity, there's been a lot of reporting over the past year that a number of global central banks have stopped buying US treasuries and are shifting to gold.

这意味着美联储不得不重新开始购买国债并扩大其资产负债表吗？

Does this mean that the Fed in The US is gonna have to start buying treasuries and expand their balance sheet again?

鉴于全球市场动态，我们是否不可避免地会看到美联储资产负债表在这个周期阶段再次扩张？

Is it inevitable that we see a re expansion of the Fed's balance sheet in this phase in the cycle given what's going on with global market action?

我认为这在将来很可能会发生。

I think that it's likely down the road.

目前，通过缩短到期期限来试图应对这一问题。

Right now there's the shortening of maturities as a means of trying to deal with that.

当然，这会增加债务展期的风险。

Of course, that increases the debt rollover risk.

但你知道，减少长期债务的发行，努力压低短期利率，使长期利率不会随之上升，从而帮助压低长期利率，同时试图利用政府的影响力说服其他国家购买或持有这些债务，或让其他形式的资本流入美国。

But you know, sell less long debt, try to hold the short rate down so that the longer rates attachment to it doesn't get, you know helps to hold the long rate down, and then try to use the government's power of persuasion on other countries to either buy the debt or to hold the debt or to have other forms of capital enter The United States.

你觉得凯文·沃什被提名为美联储主席怎么样？

How do you like Kevin Warsh's pick for Fed Chair?

你对他上任后如何指导央行利率政策有何看法？

What's your view on how he's gonna guide interest rate policy for the central bank when he assumes his term?

这是一个非常非常大的挑战。

It's a very, very big challenge.

我认为他是一个务实的人。

I think he's a practical man.

他理解利弊的两方面。

He understands both sides of the pros and cons.

我认为这是一份艰难的工作。

I think it's a tough job.

过去一年中，另一件让我感到惊讶的事情是，人们如此坚决地反对关税，担心其会引发通胀和消费减少，从而可能对GDP增长产生负面影响。

One of the other things that I would say was pretty surprising over the past year is how adamantly against tariffs for fear of inflation and reduced consumption, which would mean a negative effect on GDP growth perhaps, tariffs might be.

总统和政府依据《紧急经济权力法》实施了一系列关税，但最高法院在上周左右推翻了这些措施。

The president and the administration put in place a number of tariffs under the Emergency Economic Powers Act, which the Supreme Court in the last week or so overturned.

但回顾关税的经济影响，你认为经济学家在预测关税对经济、消费和通胀的影响时，哪些方面是对的，哪些是错的？

But looking back on the economic effect of tariffs, what do you think economists got right and wrong about their predictions about the effect tariffs would have on the economy, on consumption, on inflation?

经济学家是否从根本上遗漏或误解了某些东西？为什么？

And are there things that economists fundamentally missed or didn't understand and why?

是的

Yeah.

我也这么认为。

I think so.

首先，关税涉及税收收入部分。

First of all, there's the tax revenue part of them.

我的意思是，仅仅把它看作收入。

I mean thinking of it just as revenue.

我认为，所有经济学家都犯了一个错误，就是没有将税收纳入通胀考量。

And I think that people don't, all economists, make the mistake of not including taxes in inflation.

我的意思是，如果你的税负增加了，那就是通胀。

And what I mean by that is if your your taxes go up, that's inflation.

我的意思是，为什么住房成本上涨算通胀，而税收上涨就不该算进通胀指标呢？

I mean why should it be any different than if your cost of housing goes up, why shouldn't it be part of the inflation calculation number?

这相当于从你口袋里拿走钱。

It's taking money out of your pocket.

我的意思是，对很多人来说，这可能是最大的开销。

I mean it's probably the you know, for a lot of people the biggest expense.

所以当他们说通胀是另一回事时，我认为这实际上是在改变通胀的形式。

And so when they say inflation is something separate, know, I think it's changing the form of inflation in a sense.

我的意思是，纵观历史，关税在大多数国家的大部分历史时期都是政府最大的收入来源，对吧？

So what I mean is, you know, through history tariffs used to be the biggest source of revenue for the government throughout most history and in most countries, okay?

所以我认为，这是一种完全合理的筹资方式，应该考虑到这一点，而且还能让外国人承担一部分成本。

So it is a I think it's viewed a totally valid way of raising money and it should be kept in consideration for that and you get the foreigners paying a portion of it.

但与此同时，作为大周期问题的一部分，我们面临的问题是我们并不独立。

But there's also as part of the big cycle question is the problem that we have that we are not independent.

好吧，我们经历了产业空心化。

Okay, we've had a hollowing out.

这是个大问题，你知道的。

This is the big question, know.

我们经历了制造业和中产阶级的空心化等等。

We've had a hollowing out of manufacturing the middle class and so on.

那么，我们是要努力重建制造业，还是继续维持巨大的贸易逆差？

Now are we going to try to build that and what is the plan to build that or are we gonna continue on with large trade deficits?

因此，美国存在不可持续的贸易逆差，同时也是资本盈余。

And so you have unsustainable trade deficits that The United States has and which are capital surpluses.

换句话说，对外国资本的依赖正是这些贸易失衡的另一面，而这是不可持续的。

In other words, the dependence on foreign capital is the other side of those trade balances and that's unsustainable.

正因为这种状况不可持续，所以我们需要某种方式来纠正它。

So because that's unsustainable, you need some way of rectifying that.

那么，纠正这一问题的计划是什么？

Okay, so what is the plan to rectify that?

这一计划的一部分可以包括贸易关税。

Partially that plan can have trade tariffs.

我认为关税完全合理，但必须纳入一个更大的计划之中，即发展我们所需的关键产业，而我们现在正以更积极的方式看到这一趋势。

I think they're totally valid but it all has to be part of another greater plan which is to develop the industries that we need to have developed, which we're seeing happen in a much more proactive way.

换句话说，你正看到政府更加积极地参与基础设施建设、吸引产业入驻等行动。

In other words, you're seeing more government activity to create infrastructure, to bring in industries and so on.

你不仅在经济上需要这样，在地缘政治上也需要，因为你不能依赖他人。

You need that not only economically but you need it geopolitically because you can't have dependencies.

换句话说，我们正进入一个冲突加剧的世界。

In other words, we're entering a world of greater conflict.

我们已经从一个多边世界秩序转向了一个以实力为基础的对抗性世界经济。

We've moved from a multilateral world order to a a power based confrontational world economy.

在这种环境下，每个人都威胁要切断一切，比如商品和资本战争的威胁正在加剧。

And in that environment, everybody's threatening to cut off everything from, you know, the goods and capital wars that we can have are threatening.

因此，你必须建立独立性。

And so you have to build independence.

因此，这是试图建立这种独立性计划的一部分。

And so that's part of a plan to try to build that independence.

所以，当我审视这一点时，我认为这并不是问题所在。

So I I think when I look at that, I don't think that's the problem.

我认为这是被误解了。

I'd say and it's misunderstood.

所以，是的，我认为人们误解了这一点，重要的是我们要把其他事情做好。

So yes, I think people are misunderstanding that and the important thing is we get the other things right.

让我们把目标定在3%吧。

Know like let's get down to 3%.

顺便说一下，这方面已经有一项两党共同支持的法案，

And by the way, there's a bipartisan bill on this and

3%

3%

这项法案已经获得支持，我也是支持的，很多人为我所说的‘百分之三三分方案’点赞——占GDP的3%，从不同方面各取一点，比如税收和支出，还有 hopefully 利率。

doesn't has come out in favor of it, I'm in favor of it, mean, lots of people are in favor of you know, what I'll call the three percent three part solution, 3% of GDP, three parts a bit from one thing, a bit from another, taxes spending, and and hopefully interest rates.

为了把通胀问题说清楚，本周在国情咨文演讲中，特朗普总统提出了他的构想，即关税可以完全取代美国的所得税。

And just to take the inflation question to its conclusion, at the State of the Union this week, President Trump shared his vision, which is that tariffs can completely replace an income tax in The United States.

你认为这是一条可行的路径吗？

Do you think that that's a feasible path?

从某个角度看，关税本质上是

Does it make sense at some point for tariffs which are effectively I

我觉得不会。

think it's gonna no.

我不认为会达到那个程度，既因为规模本身，也因为这种规模带来的影响。

I don't think it's anywhere near that both because of the combination of the size and then the impact of that size.

关税具有累退性，我认为我们必须应对贫富差距问题。

Tariffs are regressive and I think that there needs to be some, we have to deal with the wealth gap.

在我看来，贫富差距这个重大社会问题，其核心其实是生产率差距。

To me the wealth gap, the biggest problem of the wealth gap which is a big social problem is also the productivity gap.

你必须让大多数人变得有生产力，而这需要通过基础设施建设等方式实现，我认为这个问题必须得到解决。

And you have to make most people productive and you have to do that through infrastructure and so on and I think that needs to be addressed.

你刚才提到的这一点非常重要。

It's a really important point you just made.

我认为我的分析表明，近一半的美国人要么为政府机构工作，要么为政府服务提供商或承包商工作。

I think my analysis indicates that nearly half of Americans either work for a government agency or a government service provider or contractor.

过去一年的数据表明，联邦雇员减少了31.7万人，约占联邦总 workforce 的14%。

The data over the past year is the federal workforce declined by 317,000 employees, roughly 14% of the total federal workforce.

随着本届政府削减了这些机构的规模，减少了这部分劳动力，这些人员会怎样？

As this administration has reduced the size of some of these agencies, reduced the size of that workforce, what happens to those individuals?

他们是转而进入私营部门并变得有生产力，还是你觉得他们被其他政府机构——无论是州级、地方级还是政府服务承包商——吸收，从事本质上对经济增长无益的工作？

Do they go work in the private workforce and become productive, or do you think they're getting subsumed by other government agencies, either state or local or government service providers to do work that fundamentally is not productive to growing the economy?

我并没有研究过这些数据。

I I haven't studied the numbers.

我认为我无法充分回答这个问题。

I don't think I can adequately answer that.

我认为政府效率极低。

I would say government is extremely inefficient.

政府确实有其作用，而且是很重要的作用，但就连这些作用，政府也处理得非常低效。

It has a role, it has an important role but even that role it's handling very inefficiently.

其他政府在处理教育等这类职能时，方式可能更好。

Other governments handle that role of maybe education, some of these things in a better way.

我们需要根本性的改革，你知道，最值得投资的就是教育。

We need fundamental we need you know, best thing you could invest in is education.

但无论如何，这些人从政府出去后去向何方、做些什么，以及其他的低效问题，都是个难题。

But anyway, where they go and what they do from the government and and you know, the other inefficiencies is a problem.

资本主义体系的一个好处是，如果没人愿意投资它，或者它无法盈利，它就无法生存。

The one thing that's good about the system that the capitalist system in a sense is it doesn't live if it can't, if somebody either won't bet on it or it doesn't make a profit.

所以，是的，我认为不管这些人去哪里，都有太多低效的人和低效的体系。

So yeah, so I think wherever it goes, wherever those people go, there's just so many inefficient people and inefficient systems.

当前这个国家是否缺乏足够的以生产力为导向的经济增长，来为更多人提供提升收入、财富和生活品质的机会？

Is there not enough productivity driven economic growth in this nation at this time to give more people the opportunity to improve their income, improve their wealth, improve their livelihoods?

我们目前面临的核心问题，是这个原因，还是说人们没有做好准备或缺乏教育，无法变得有生产力，因而系统本身辜负了他们？

Is that the fundamental issue we're dealing with at the moment, Or is it that you know, people aren't prepared or educated to be productive and therefore the system itself has failed them?

基本上，要取得成功，你需要做好三件事。

There are three things basically that you need to do to be successful.

首先，要很好地教育你的孩子。

You have to first educate your children well.

让他们有能力变得有生产力，同时也要教育他们懂得文明礼仪。

And so that they are capable of being productive and also educate them in civility.

让他们彼此之间保持文明。

So that they are civil with each other.

第二，他们必须生活在一个有序、文明的环境中，在这个环境中，人们能够相互竞争与合作，以实现高效生产，这对大多数人是有利的。

The second is then they have to come out to an environment that is an orderly civil environment that people can compete and work with compete and work with each other to be productive, that works for the most people.

第三，你必须避免战争。

And the third thing is you have to stay out of wars.

你必须避免内战，也要避免国际战争。

You have to stay, you have to have no civil war and no international war.

如果你把这三件事做好，你就拥有一个成功的国家。

If you do those three things right, you will have a successful country.

纵观历史，一直都是这样。

That's all throughout history.

好的，我们现在在这些问题上遇到了困难。

Okay, we're having problems with those.

这些因素是否能解决我们正在目睹的一些崛起运动？比如工会化趋势增强，工会对政治进程的影响，以及由此导致的美国社会主义思潮和对社会主义运动的支持上升，还有财富税——从这些运动参与者的观点来看，这些措施旨在解决美国日益加剧的收入不平等和贫富差距问题。

And are those three things the antidote to some of the rising movements that we're seeing in increased unionization and effects that unions are having on the political process, which is also leading to these rises in socialism and support for socialist movements in The United States as well as the wealth taxes, which from the view that's shared by those participating in those movements, they are meant to solve income inequality, wealth gap issues that we're seeing in The United States.

所以他们的解决方案就是通过教育和文明，营造一个文明的环境并避免战争，这难道就是我们实现成功的全部所需吗？还是说，还有更深层的冲突根源？

So that's their solution, is the solution to those movements, education and civility, creating a civil environment and staying out of wars, is that all we need to do to make this successful or is there more to the aggression?

是的。

Yes.

我们需要做的就是停止争斗。

That's that's that's that's that's we need is is is to stop fighting.

我们现在正处于一种无法调和分歧的阶段。

Okay, we're now at a stage where we have irreconcilable differences.

换句话说，当人们所支持的诉求比整个制度本身更重要时，这个制度就岌岌可危了。

In other words, when when the causes people are behind are more important to them than the system, the system is in jeopardy.

我们的制度正面临危机，因为人们不再接受这个制度或它的替代方案。

Our system is in jeopardy because they people will not accept the system or the alternatives.

所以他们将会抗争。

And so they're gonna fight.

你知道，我觉得在中期选举之后，我们可能会看到民主党赢得众议院，但情况可能会很艰难。

You know, I think I think when we have we're gonna have the midterm elections, you're gonna go past the midterm elections with probably the Democrats will take the House and be and maybe, I don't know, it's gonna be difficult.

你知道吗，没人能成功，因为每个人都会在斗争。

And you know what, nobody can succeed because everybody's gonna be fighting.

他们都会互相争斗，明白吗？

They're gonna all be fighting, okay?

那这会对生产力造成什么影响？

So how does that affect productivity?

好吧。

Okay.

那么当你面对如何建立一个良好的教育体系这样的问题时？

And then when you deal with things like how do you get a good education system?

所以你现在几乎面临暴民骚乱。

So you have now almost the mob disorder.

暴民骚乱和低效。

Mob disorder and inefficiency.

没人能掌控这一切。

Nobody's allowed to take charge of this.

如果你回溯历史，柏拉图，你知道，就像马奇所描述的那样，谈到了民主的周期及其对民主的威胁。

If you go back in history, Plato, you know, think it was like March wrote about the cycle of democracies the threat to democracies.

现在发生的事情类似于凯撒时代的罗马，你在元老院被刺杀，而你需要的是两党合作，国家需要一位强有力的领导人，我们确实需要一位强有力的领导人来推动改革，让国家良好运转，但我的意思是，你该如何迫使这些在选举中也如此分裂、行为失序的人群建立秩序呢？

What's happening now is similar to Julius Caesar and Rome and being you know, stabbed in the senate and and what you need is you need a bipartisan, you need the country to have a strong, almost a strong leader, we do need a strong leader, to get the reforms done to make the country work well, but I mean, so how do you force this mob of people who are behaving this way, including in the elections and so fragment, to create order.

你需要一位强硬的领导人，迫使他们去做那些艰难但必要的事，停止彼此争斗，专注于提高生产力。

So you need a tough leader who will force them to do different force things to difficult things and not fight with each other and focus on being productive.

我认为，这正是你所需要的。

That's what you need I think.

这听起来似乎有一种不可避免的路径，让人不得不在某种形式的社会主义和某种形式的法西斯主义之间做出选择，而没人愿意选。

It sounds a little like there may be this inevitable path of the choice that no one wants to make between some form of socialism and some form of fascism.

这是否意味着我们正走向

Is that I where this

我认为我们正在走向这场战争，我们已经身处这场战争之中。

think we're moving toward that war, we're in that war.

我们正处于我所说的周期的第五阶段，明白吗？

We're in what I call stage five of a cycle, okay?

在我的书中，我描述了反复发生的模式。

In the book I describe the pattern that's happened over and over again.

当你处于这种境地时，糟糕的财政状况、巨大的财富和价值差距、不可调和的分歧，再加上外部和国内的威胁，就会产生这种动态。

And when you get to this position when there are bad finances combined with large wealth and values gaps and irreconcilable differences and you have external threats as well as domestic threats, you have this dynamic.

我认为我们目前就处在这个阶段。

I think that's where we are.

我就像个机械师，我的目标不是意识形态的，我只是个务实的人，试图在市场中赚钱，并试图描述这些现象，而这就是它看起来的样子。

I'm like a mechanic, my goal, I'm not ideological, I'm just a practical guy trying to make money in the markets and trying to describe things and that's what it looks like.

我认为当我们审视人工智能的泡沫问题时，很多人没有意识到的是，在所有泡沫中，人们购买公司股票时以为自己是在押注技术。

I think when we look at the bubble question on AI, what a lot of people don't realize in bubbles is that through all technologies, they think that they are betting on the technology when they buy the stocks in the companies.

这并不正确。

That's not true.

明白吗？

Okay?

公司行为和技术行为之间存在着巨大的差异。

There's a giant difference between the behavior of the companies and the behavior of the technologies.

而这些情况下的常态是，许多公司在初期无法生存。

And that the norm is in these is that a lot of companies won't survive in the start.

只有极小比例的公司能存活下来，它们都会激烈竞争，但技术本身会继续发展，而且会非常出色。

Very small percentage and they'll all fight and so on but the technologies will go on and it'll be great.

技术本身会继续发展。

The technologies will.

因此，我想向人们强调这种动态，我可以继续描述这究竟是怎样的。

So I wanna emphasize to people that dynamic and I can go on and describe you know what it's like.

当然，我们在2000年的科技泡沫中已经看到过某种程度的这种情况，但即使我描述上世纪20年代末的情形，你也只会觉得难以置信——技术会持续进步，但公司未必能持续下去。

Of course we've seen it to some extent with the two thousand bubble in the technologies and what went on, but even if I describe what it was like in the late twenties, you know it's just it was unbelievable that the technologies will go on but the companies won't necessarily go on.

因此，当我看到这一点时，它有着深远的影响。

And so when I'm looking at that, that has big implications.

目前在我看来，人工智能基本上正在吞噬一切，甚至可能吞噬自己。

Right now it looks to me like AI basically is eating everything and it might eat itself.

我所说的意思是，它无法产生足够的利润。

And what I mean by that is not produce adequate profits.