软件股暴跌，克劳德的黑名单，国情咨文反响，特朗普关税政策转向

软件停止了吗？

Has software stopped?

显然是AI优先的公司，还有人们

It's AI first companies, obviously, and people

只是重建传统的SaaS工具变得更便宜了吗？

rebuilding traditional SaaS tools just cheap?

基本上，每个人都在打造顶尖的产品，就像我们在All In峰会上讨论的那样，这些公司中的一些正试图打造世界上最好的飞行员，或者Waymo正在尝试打造世界上最好的驾驶员。

Basically, everybody's building the great you know, as we talked about at the all in summit, like, some of these companies are trying to build the best pilot in the world or Waymo's trying to build the best driver in the world.

现在人们正试图打造世界上最好的SDR、最好的销售员、最好的高管教练。

People are now trying to build the best SDR in the world, the best salesperson, the best executive coach.

所以我们一直非常关注Claude Cowork，但主要是OpenClaw。

And so we have been, like, obsessed with Claude Cowork, but mainly OpenClaw.

所以我们所做的，我认为并不是开发者会完成所有这些工作，而是知识工作者。

And so what we did was, and I and I think it's not developers that are gonna do all this work, it's knowledge workers.

我们公司有20个人。

So we had we have 20 people in our firm.

这个周末，我们有15个人来参与，他们在六七个小时内接受了培训，学习如何拥有自己的OpenClaw代理，然后我们就开始构建了。

We had 15 of them come in this weekend, and they all got trained over, like, six or seven hours, how to have their own OpenClaw agent, and we started building it.

过去十年里，我们一直想买或开发但没来得及做的每一份软件，我的团队在过去三十天里全都做出来了。

Every piece of software that we wanted to buy or build over the last ten years that we never got to, my people are building in the last thirty days.

举个例子，当你为播客销售广告时，你希望查看其他所有播客及其广告主信息。

As an example, you know, when you're selling ads for a podcast, you wanna check all the other podcasts and what advertisers they have.

我们训练了一个代理，让它抓取前100个播客，分析其文字稿，找出广告主，检查这些广告主在Pipedrive中的记录，告诉我们上次联系他们是什么时候，并将信息汇总到销售室中。

We trained an agent to go take the top 100 podcasts, look through the transcripts, figure out who the advertisers are, check those advertisers in Pipedrive, tell us when the last time we contacted them, and put it into the sales room.

这原本是一个我们想招聘SDR来完成、并希望开发软件来实现的工作。

That was an SDR job that we wanted to fill and software we wanted to build.

然后我们希望让员工能获得收入。

Then we wanted people to have money

这是以前你付钱给一个人来做的工作，现在你用软件取代了这个人，还是这个人依然存在，只是现在以更好的方式完成它？

That was a was a human that you were paying money and now you've replaced with software, or that human still exists, but now they just do it in a better way?

重新部署这个人。

Redeploying that human.

我们目前还是有人在做这件事。

We have a human doing it.

我们会把这些人员重新分配去做其他事情。

We're gonna redeploy them to do other things.

而且这种操作的稳定性和准确性，还能通宵达旦地持续运行。

And the consistency of this and the accuracy, and then it's doing it all night long.

所以我们现在有七个这样的代理在承担这些角色。

So we have, like, seven of these agents in these kind of roles.

接下来我们做的一步是，让我的代理——也就是像奥创那样的系统——获得对Gmail、日历、Zoom、Notion和Slack的访问权限。

The next piece we did was we gave my agent, which is like the Ultron, axe route access to Gmail, Calendar, Zoom, Notion, Slack.

它会为每个人生成一份报告，显示他们本周的工作成果，并同步给他们的经理。

And what it's doing is it's giving each person, here's what you got done this week with their manager.

这是你发送的邮件。

Here's the emails you sent.

这是你参加的会议。

Here's the meetings you took.

这是联系人。

Here's the contacts.

这是你参与的对话线程。

Here are the threads you were involved in.

然后它还在帮助管理这些人。

And then it's helping manage those people.

所以我们正在获得所有

And so we are getting All

所有这些都告诉我，杰森，尽管你有那么多悲观情绪，但你似乎在成长，你会雇佣更多人，而且你更有生产力。

that all that to me says you, Jason, despite all your doomerism, seems like you're growing, and you're gonna be hiring more people, and you're more productive.

我理解得对吗？

Am I getting this wrong?

不对。

No.

不对。

No.

我不是悲观主义者。

I'm not doomerist.

我认为在这个职位上会发生的是

What I think's gonna happen in this position is

但你在成长，而且你会招聘

But you're growing, and you're gonna be hiring

更多人。

more people.

不。

No.

不。

No.

我们不会增加更多人。

We're not gonna add more people.

绝对不增加人员。

Definitely not adding people.

我们现有的员工每周效率都在提升10%到20%，因为那些我们原本需要花钱购买、或在有时间且愿意开发定制软件时才去构建的软件，现在由我们的OpenClaw代理完成了。

The people we have are becoming 10 or 20% more efficient every week because the software we would have paid for or built from another vendor if we had the time or we wanted to build custom software, we had 10 engineers.

这些软件是由我们的OpenClaw代理开发的。

It's being built by our OpenClaw agents.

举个例子，当我们为这个播客以及其他播客制作片段时，我们会让系统去查看十年前的《本周初创公司》那一期。

As an example, when we make clips for this podcast, other podcasts, we have it go and look at, like, this week in startups episode from ten years.

它会告诉我们其中最精彩的三个片段，然后自动生成剪辑。

Tell us the three best moments, and it makes the clip.

它还会加上字幕，然后把剪辑上传到Slack群组里。

It puts the subtitles on it, and then it puts the clip into the Slack room.

这原本会是一项全职工作。

That was something that was gonna be a full time job.

所以我们正在提升20%的效率。

So we're getting 20% more efficient.

后来我开始在家里也这么做了。

Then I started doing it at home.

所以我得拿出我们的Instacart订单，提取最近的10笔订单，然后告诉我们我们最常买什么，接着它会自动为我们生成一辆车。

So I had to take our Instacart, pull out the last 10 orders we did, and then tell us what we order most of the time, and then it's going to automatically build a car for us.

目前每一个Knowledgeware任务都在被自动化，你可以随时接手。

Every single Knowledgeware job is being automated right now, and you can take it.

如果你是业务流程负责人，你知道如何设计业务流程，可以用代理来结构化和编写它，它就会每天、每周自动运行。

And if you're a business process head, well, you know how to, like, do a business process and you can structure it and write it with an agent, it'll just run it every day, every week.

我们又开发了一个代理。

We did another agent.

如何制作更好的缩略图？

How do you make better thumbnails?

我们规定，每个星期六，在你的技能文件中，当你构建OpenClaw时，它会有一个灵魂文件和一个技能文件。

And we said every Saturday, in your skills so when you build an OpenClaw, it has, like, a soul file, and it has a skills file.

在技能文件里，我们告诉Zacks：每周去查找人们讨论如何在YouTube上制作更好缩略图、更好标题的内容。

In the skills file, we told at Zacks, every week, go out and look for people discussing how to make better thumbnails on YouTube, how to make better titles.

这周它发现，Chamath，来自MrBeast公司的一位人士谈到了他们如何使用热力图。

It found this week, Chamath, somebody at mister beast company talk about how they're using heat maps.

这是一篇我根本不会知道的文章。

It was an article I would have never known.

它把这一点添加到了自己的技能中，现在每次我们发布缩略图时，它都会根据每周不断优化的技能告诉我们如何让缩略图更好，甚至已经开始自己制作缩略图了。

It added it to its skill, and now whenever we post the thumbnail, it tell tells us based on its skill that it refines every week how to make that thumbnail better, and it's starting to make the thumbnails.

这正在变得越来越递归。

This is becoming recursive.

所以你保持相同数量的人，但他们变得高效了10%到20%。

So you keep the same number of people, but they get 10 or 20% more efficient.

我不知道这对整体经济意味着什么。

I don't know what this means for the larger economy.

我只知道，这是自互联网问世以来，我在网上经历过的最令人兴奋的时刻。

All I know is it's the most exciting time I've had online since the web came out, since the Internet came out.

自动化这些东西真是太有趣了。

It is so much fun to automate all this stuff.

我一直在思考一个大问题，但还没找到满意的答案，我不知道你们怎么看：所有这些企业都需要稳住阵脚，给自己留出空间来弄清楚这一切。

The big question that I am thinking about that I haven't gotten a good answer about, so I don't I don't know what you guys think is, all these businesses are going to need to batten down the hatches and give themselves room to figure this all out.

对吧？

Right?

比如，你采纳萨克斯的观点，还有杰·卡尔的观点，即像你们这样的年轻灵活公司会迅速进行实验。

Like, you take Sax's point like, if you take your point, Jay Kal, which is the young nimble companies like yours are going to be rapidly experimenting.

而规模更大的公司则会缓慢地逐步开始尝试。

The bigger, larger companies are gonna slowly onboard themselves to start experimenting.

所有这些都意味着我们将对这些问题获得更清晰的答案。

All of that means we're gonna get much clearer answers to all of this.

但这也意味着，你必须有时间来弄清楚这一切。

But what it also means is that you're gonna have to have time so that you can figure this all out.

如果你想为自己争取时间，你就需要大量的现金。

And if you wanna buy yourself time, you're gonna need a ton of cash.

如果你想考虑节省现金，科技公司真正烧钱的地方就在于他们的薪酬方式。

And if you're gonna think about saving cash, the one place tech companies literally incinerate cash is how they do compensation.

所以我认为，迟早会有一只靴子落地，所有这些科技公司都必须认真审视以股票为基础的薪酬，因为它们几乎把全部或大部分自由现金流都消耗在了应对股票薪酬带来的稀释问题上。

And so I kinda think, like, at some point, the next shoe will drop, and all of these tech companies have to really look at stock based comp because they literally incinerate most, if not all, of their free cash flow fighting the dilution from stock based compensation.

所以，如果你想要五到六年的时间专注于这个领域，亲自摸索这些问题，你就需要尽可能地产生正向现金流，并且在花钱时保持极度保守。

So if you want five or six years to just be in the arena on the field figuring this out, you're gonna wanna kinda be very cash flow generative and really conservative in how you spend your money.

是的。

Yeah.

萨克斯，那些拥抱这种理念的人，我认为他们的价值会是那些不这么做的人的五倍甚至十倍。

Sacks, the people who embrace this, I think, become five or 10 times more valuable than the people who are not.

我认为这就是经济中的机会所在。

That's where I think the opportunity in the economy is.

所以，除非你认为人类将不再有需要解决的问题，否则这将是一片繁荣。

So unless you think humanity is gonna run out of problems to solve, I think it's gonna be boom.

这将成为一个繁荣的城镇。

It's gonna be boom town.

我认为人们会开始创办更多公司，因为创办一家公司的门槛已经不再是三四百万美元了。

And I think people are gonna start more companies because the the barrier to start a company is no longer 3 or $4,000,000.

你只需要两三个普通人，就可以开始搭建这些智能代理。

You could just have two or three people, and you start setting up these agents.

而且，老兄，你能做饭。

And, man, you can You can cook.

你能做销售。

You can do sales.

你能做公关。

You can do PR.

一切都在变得越来越快。

Everything is getting faster and faster and faster.

所以从构思产品到发布它、找到开发者，这个时间间隔——你甚至都不需要开发者。

So the time between, like, conceiving of a product and publishing it and finding a developer, you don't even need a developer.

你只需要发布软件就行了。

You can just publish software.

让我醒悟的时刻是我们跟我们的代理讨论时，说：嘿。

The the wake up moment for me was we were talking to our agent about, hey.

我们想把Slack里的这个功能弄出来。

We wanna get this functionality out of Slack.

是的，就是这样。

And it's like, yeah.

Slack 没有这个功能，但你考虑过 MatterPost 吗？

Slack doesn't have that, but have you considered MatterPost?

我当时想，MatterPost 是什么？

I'm like, what's MatterPost?

哦，这是一个开源项目。

Like, oh, it's an open source project.

我这个周末就能把它搭起来，导出你的 Slack 数据，然后迁移到那里。

I can spin it up this weekend, export your Slack instance, and put it there.

我当时说，别这么干。

And I was like, oh, don't do that.

我们每年在 Slack 上只花六千或一万美元。

And we're only spending 6 k a year on Slack or 10 k a year.

但这些软件其实正在为我们构建客户关系管理系统。

But the software is building CRM systems for us.

它在为我们构建代理，并且想要直接搭建整个软件栈。

It's building agents for us, and it wants to just build all the software stack.

所以当你与Slack、HubSpot或你正在合作的任何公司重新谈判时，你可以对他们说：嘿。

So you could when you renegotiate with Slack or HubSpot or whatever company you are working with, you're gonna be able to say to them, hey.

我们可以自己开发。

We could roll our own.

当你想向我们推销最新功能时，比如你提到的Saks，推销在SaaS中如此重要。

And when you wanna upsell us on this latest thing, like you talked about, Saks, upselling is such a big part of SaaS.

实际上，我可以自己在内部开发那个软件。

You're like, I can actually build that software myself internally.

我不需要你们来做。

I don't need you to do it.

瑞安·彼得森刚刚在X上发帖。

Ryan Peterson just posts on x.

顺便说一下，Claude在法律方面表现得和Harvey一样好。

Claude for legal seems to work just as well as Harvey, by the way.

现在，SaaS的末日也开始波及私营公司了。

Now it's the SaaS pocalypse is going after private companies now too.

我认为，一段时间以来，人们一直在质疑，整个技术栈的哪一层会捕获全部价值。

Well, I think for a a while now, there has been a question of which layer of the stack is gonna capture all the value.

那么，是模型公司会赢，还是构建在模型之上的应用会赢？

So is it gonna be the model companies or could it be the applications that are built on top of the models?

或者，如果这两个层级都存在激烈竞争，那么芯片公司会不会独占全部利益？

Or, you know, if there's a lot of competition at both those layers of the stack, do the chip companies get it all?

我觉得这个问题还不清楚。

I think it's an unclear question.

但是

But

完全不清楚。

Totally unclear.

是的

Yeah.

我认为，对于任何一个特定的垂直应用，你都必须解释清楚，为什么你认为自己的价值主张能在基础模型不断进步的情况下依然保持可持续性。

I think, you know, for any given vertical application, you do have to defend why you think your value prop will be sustainable as the underlying foundation models just get better themselves.

而且这是开源的。

And it's open source.

比如这周，我们上线了Kimi 2.5。

Like, this week, we put up Kimi 2.5.

它能完成大约80%到85%的工作。

It can do about 8085% of the jobs.

所以我们上线后，大幅降低了我们的token费用。

So we lowered our token bills massively when we stood that up.

好的。

Alright.

听我说。

Listen.

这还有待确定。

This is TBD.

关于这个话题，我们还有很多需要思考的地方。

We got a lot more to think about on this topic.

就这些关于人工智能的争论大多是相互竞争的科幻叙事而言，我认为末日论叙事天生更吸引人。

Just on this point of a lot of these debates about AI are dueling science fiction narratives, I just think that the doomer narratives are inherently more appealing to people.

我的意思是，看看大多数科幻电影，它们都是反乌托邦的，而不是乌托邦的。

I mean, I think it's partly just you look at most sci fi movies, they're dystopian, not utopian.

除此之外，我认为我们对末日论叙事存在一系列启发式偏见。

In addition to that, I think we have a bunch of heuristic biases in favor of the doomer narratives.

其中一个就是可见的与不可见的差异。

So one of them is the seen versus the unseen.

更容易看到那些可能被淘汰的现有工作，却很难想象那些尚未被创造出来、未来可能由某位伟大创新者或天才构想出的新工作和新商业模式。

It's a lot easier to see the jobs that already exist that could be obsoleted than it is to imagine the new jobs and the new business models that haven't been created yet, and that will likely take some great innovator or a genius to think of in order to create.

因此，我们存在一种巨大的启发式偏见，无法预见即将到来的创造。

So we have that huge heuristic bias of not being able to see the creation that's coming.

想象潜在的破坏远比想象创造所需的创造力少得多。

It takes way less creativity to think about the potential construction.

最后，我认为，另一个认知偏差就是所谓的‘固定蛋糕谬论’。

And then finally, I think, you know, the other heuristic is just the whole fixed pie fallacy.

大多数人倾向于把经济看作一个固定大小的蛋糕。

Most people do tend to think of the economy as a fixed pie.

这就是为什么你看到如此多对百万富翁和亿万富翁的愤怒，因为人们认为，如果有人变富了，那一定是牺牲了别人的利益。

This is why you see so much anger against, you know, millionaires and billionaires is because of this idea that if someone's getting rich, it must be at the expense of someone else.

但事实并非如此。

That's not actually the case.

经济本身可能因为某人发明了新事物、提高了生产力而变得更大。

The economy itself could be growing larger as a result of someone inventing something new that increases production.

几周前一篇其他文章里有一句非常好的话：经济不是蛋糕，而是一座花园，而技术就是雨水。

A really good line from another article that was written just a couple weeks ago was, the economy is not a pie, it's a garden, and technology is rain.

所以，再次说明，所有的技术创新都将推动这座花园的增长。

So again, you know, all of this technological innovation is going to increase the growth rate of the garden.

它不是一个固定大小的蛋糕。

It's not a fixed pie.

仅仅因为你在经济的某个部分看到生产力的提升，并不意味着在经济的其他部分就会出现失业。

And just because you see an expansion in productivity in one part of the economy does not mean that you're gonna see job loss in another part of the economy.

是的。

Yeah.

我认为人们没注意到的工作，但我现在看到的是：那些创建代理、管理代理并作为代理指挥者的人，他们能理解业务流程，解释清楚，并训练代理去执行。

I think the job people are not seeing, but I'm seeing right now, is the person who creates agents, manages them, and is the maestro of the agents, the person who can take the business process, explain it, and train the agent to do it.

在商业中，有些人特别擅长运营。

And there are certain people in business who are just really good at operations.

你就是其中之一，萨克斯，你曾经经营公司。

You were one of them, Sachs, running companies.

而那种能启动代理、训练代理、学会管理它们，并设法提升它们效率的人——

And, like, that person who can fire up an agent, train the agent, and figure out how to manage them and figure out how to increase their

借助任何新技术都能大幅提升销售，做得很好。

sales With with any new technology great job.

但这并不是开发者。

And it's not a developer.

你看。

Look.

任何新技术在企业中都伴随着巨大的变革管理挑战，因为它们很难适应和改变。

With any new technology, there's always a huge change management aspect with enterprises because it's hard for them to adapt and change.

而组织中能够引领这种变革管理的人，将为自己创造绝佳的职业机会。

And the people in the organization who can lead that change management are the ones who are gonna create an amazing career opportunity for themselves.

但这很难做到，这会减缓变革的速度，因为经济中存在巨大的惯性。

But it's hard to do, and that's gonna slow down the rate of change, just the amount of inertia in the economy.

另一个制约因素是，我们可能在某个时候会受到令牌限制，对吧？

And also one other constraint is gonna be that at some point here we may be token constrained, right?

我的意思是，我们可能没有足够的能源，就像我们之前讨论过的那样。

I mean we may not have enough energy like we've talked about.

尽管芯片的性能提升得如此之快，每秒令牌数、每瓦特令牌数和每美元令牌数都在迅速增长，但在未来几年里，我们可能仍会在某些方面受到限制，无论是土地、电力、散热，还是能源生产，甚至是芯片制造。

Even though the chips are getting so much better that tokens per second, tokens per watt, and tokens per dollar are all increasing very fast, but we're still gonna probably be constrained in the next couple of years on some dimension, whether it's land power shell or just energy production or maybe chip production.

实际世界对基础设施扩展速度存在真实限制，这意味着那些过于乌托邦或反乌托邦的叙事将是错误的。

There are real world constraints on just how fast we can scale the infrastructure, and that will mean that these like hyper utopian or hyper dystopian narratives will be wrong.

我认为在未来几年内，整个经济不可能像极端观点所描述的那样发生彻底变革。

I don't think there's time in the next few years for the whole economy to change in the way that the extremes would present.

我觉得你说得对。

I think you're right.

我认为你会看到对令牌的需求增长十倍，但我也认为到今年年底，单个输出令牌的成本可能会下降90%。

I think you're gonna see a 10 x ing in the demand for tokens, but I also think you're going to see a 90% price reduction in the cost of an output token probably by the end of this year.

所以，正如你所指出的，这将引发巨大的需求激增，因为我们能够将输出令牌的价格大幅降低。

So I think that, to your point, like, it's it's gonna just create an enormous upswale of demand because we're gonna be able to cut the prices of an output token so dramatically.

而且我认为这样一来

And I think that way

我们上周讨论过的那个话题，Shammock，当时我们谈到令牌的增长速度超过了员工薪资，以及这些令牌究竟从何而来，那是我们播客历史上观看次数最多或最多的片段之一。

that discussion we had, Shammock, last week when we talked about cup the tokens outpacing the employee salary and just where these tokens are all gonna come from, that was our most viewed clip or one of the most viewed clips in the history of this podcast.

所以人们实际上非常关注这一点。

So people are actually really focused on this.

你知道吗？

You know?

我让我的团队把成本控制在89美元。

I had my team at eighty nine.

我们重新调整了成本模型，现在这已经成为一个单独的项目。

We we redid our cost model, and now we have that as a line item.

当我们考虑员工的全部综合成本时，我们现在把这一点纳入考量，因为我们的一些工程师产生的费用已经高得惊人。

When we think about fully burdened cost of employees, we now factor that in because we're we're at a place where some of our engineers are just racking up ginormous bills.

另外，我们为产品运行的一些通用任务也极其昂贵。

And then separately, just general runs that we do for general purpose stuff that we need to just run our product is it's so expensive.

所以我正屏息等待Saks所说的——我们需要算力供应的爆发，因为我确实认为新的硅基解决方案即将到来，能大幅降低成本，但我们需要一大块现成的电力资源，以便能立刻启动这一切，真正利用起来。

So I am waiting with bated breath for what Saks said, which is like we need an explosion in the capacity that's available because I do think that the the silicon solutions are coming that will cut the cost, but we need a large block of land power shell ready to then turn all of this stuff on so that we can actually take advantage of it.

有传言说新款Mac Studio即将发布。

Rumors the new Mac Studio is coming.

它将搭载M5芯片，并且专门为语言模型优化。

We'll have an m five chip in it and will be language model ready.

所以传言称，他们正在为模型构建这款设备。

So that's the rumors that they're building it for models.

这可能会是一个惊人的转折。

So that could be an incredible turn of events.

每个人的电脑上都在运行本地模型。

Everybody's desktop running the local model.

萨克斯，你想要最后说几句吗？还是弗里伯格？

Sax, you wanna have the final word here or Freeberg before we Just

让我们回到贾马特刚才说的内容。

to go back to what Jamath was saying there.

我的意思是，现在有一些政治力量想要阻止美国境内所有数据中心的建设。

I mean, you've got political forces that wanna stop the construction of all data centers in The United States.

这太疯狂了。

So That's crazy.

如果这种势头继续增强，那将对任何变革造成巨大制约。

If that gains steam, then that's gonna be a huge constraint on any change whatsoever.

我可以为你引出这个话题吗，杰·卡尔？

Can I tee this up for you, Jay Kal?

这个周末我回去后，查看了那些遭遇当地反对的数据中心数量，看看是否存在某种模式。

So I I went back this weekend, and I looked at the number of data centers that have faced local opposition and whether there were patterns.

我把这个发在了X上，所以尼克，也许你可以放一下这个。

And I I posted it on X, so Nick, maybe you can put this up.

但真正构成阻力并导致项目取消的行为其实非常少。

But it was really a a very small behavior which was pushing back on data centers and getting them canceled.

我们总共统计了大约25个项目，其中20个都集中在第二季度。

We had about 25 projects total, of which 20 were just in q two alone.

目前有100个数据中心项目正面临某种形式的当地反对。

There are a 100 data center projects right now that are facing some form of local opposition.

这很有趣，因为这些……

So interesting because these

你把40%这个数字套用进去，再乘以它们宣布的兆瓦数，去年我们因项目取消损失了近五吉瓦。

you take that 40% number and you apply this and then you multiply it by the number of megawatts that they have announced, last year, we lost almost five gigawatts in terms of canceled projects.

按照这个算法，今年进入2026年，可能会有七个项目面临取消。

This year coming in '26, we have about seven that could be canceled if you use this math.

如果将这一点延伸开来，OpenAI的莎拉·弗莱尔曾表示，对她而言，每吉瓦的算力大约能带来100亿美元的收入。

If then you flow that through, OpenAI, Sarah Fryer said this, that every gigawatt for her, for OpenAI, is about 10,000,000,000 of revenue.

所以，如果你假设这个数字大致准确，上下浮动几十亿也无妨，那么这意味着2025年，整个行业因项目取消而损失了500亿美元的收入。

So if you if you assume that that's roughly accurate, plus or minus a billion here or there, what that means is that 2025, the industry as a whole lost 50,000,000,000 of revenue.

而今年，如果七吉瓦的项目被取消，损失将大约达到700亿美元。

And this year, if seven gigawatts gets canceled, it's about 70,000,000,000.

现在，你谈论的是在未来两年内，我们错失了高达1300亿美元的收入。

Now you're talking about a 130,000,000,000 of lost revenue over these two years that'll go forward in time that we miss out on.

我认为这非常糟糕。

I think that that's really bad.

我们必须想办法把这个问题扼杀在萌芽状态。

We need to figure out a way to nip this in the bud.

这很矛盾，因为五年前、十年前，地方市政当局还在争先恐后地提供优惠，试图吸引这些数据中心落户，以创造就业和增加收入，而现在却有人试图阻止它们。

So confounding because we were sitting here five years ago, ten years ago, local municipalities were fighting and giving discounts to try to get these data centers open to get the jobs and get the revenue, and now we've got people trying to stop them.

这正好为国情咨文提供了一个完美的过渡话题。

This is a perfect transition for the State of the Union.

在我们进入那个话题之前，有两个重要的事项提醒。

Before we get there, two important programming notes.

《All In》将在2026年举办两场活动。

All In is gonna host two events in 2026.

其中一场是关于流动性的活动，时间是5月31日至6月3日，在葡萄酒之乡的约内维尔举行。

One of them, liquidity, May 31 to June 3 in Yonville, up in Wine Country.

查马斯已经接管了这场活动，并设定了谁可以上台演讲的标准。

Chamath has taken control of the event, and he has set a standard for who gets on stage.

你们这些中间派别无权控制节目安排。

None of you mids can control the programming.

我就说这么多。

I just That's it.

查马斯出现了。

Chamath came in.

他直接下了重手。

He dropped the hammer.

到目前为止你邀请了谁？

Who do you got so far?

你打算透露一下你邀请来演讲的几位嘉宾吗？

You wanna tease a couple of people who you invited to come speak?

我透露两个。

I'll tease two.

首先是我的一位非常亲密的朋友。

First is an incredibly dear friend of mine.

这个

The

王牌中的王牌。

axe of axes.

丹·勒布，第三点基金的创始人，他在每一个领域——私人信贷、公开股票、私人科技——都是令人难以置信的投资人。

Dan Loeb, who founded Third Point, who is an unbelievable investor in literally every domain, private credit, public equities, private tech.

他就是他只是

He's he's just a he's

就只是得到？

just get?

他是个猛人。

He's a beast.

他将发表一场非常重要的主题演讲。

So he'll be doing a really important keynote.

他已经有很长时间没有参加过这种公开演讲了。

He has not done one of these public speaking slots in a very long time.

第二个是OpenAI的CFO，莎拉·弗莱尔。

And then the second is the CFO of OpenAI, Sarah Fryer.

哦，天哪。

Oh, wow.

简直是明星人物。

Unbelievable star.

我们将当着所有人的面深入探讨OpenAI的整个商业模式。

And we're gonna double click into the entire business model of OpenAI on stage in front of everybody.

所以，访问 allin.com。

So, go to allin.com.

对于那些提前规划旅行的人

And then for those of you who plan ahead for travel

更多内容即将推出。

More coming.

更多更多

More More

每周都会更新。

coming every week.

即将推出。

Coming.

你真是个 All In 峰会的粉丝啊，我简直不敢相信，弗里德伯格。

You are, an All In Summit fan, I can't believe it, Friedberg.

我们将在九月迎来第五届峰会。

We're gonna be in our fifth year, September.

只会越来越好。

Only gets better.

每年都在进步。

Gets better every year.

我能不能也办些精彩的派对？

Can I have some good parties too?

我的意思是，那些《回到未来》和《银翼杀手》主题派对，真是史诗级的。

I mean, that back to the future and the Blade Runner parties, those were epic.

allin.com/events。

Allin.com/events.

嘿。

Hey.

我能为播客的朋友比尔·盖利打个广告吗？

Can I give a plug to friend of the pod, Bill Gurley?

他刚出版了一本精彩的新书，《追逐梦想》。

He's got an amazing new book, Running Down a Dream.

请。

Please.

等一下。

Wait.

等一下。

Wait.

等一下。

Wait.

等一下。

Wait.

在

Before

你开始之前。

you start.

在你开始之前。

Before you start.

就在那儿。

There it is.

《Running Down a Dream》。

Running Down a Dream.

我只是希望每个人暂停一下这个播客。

I just want everybody to stop the pause the podcast.

我想让你买三本。

I want you to buy three copies.

送给两个年轻人和一个你认识的家长。

Give it to two young people and a parent you know.

这本书太棒了。

This book is incredible.

这是一本好书。

It's a great book.

它真的对孩子们很有启发。

It it really is inspiring for kids.

还有比尔·盖利，我们节目的朋友，他总是支持我们。

And Bill Gurley, friend of the pod, he always shows up for us.

J Cal，给我们模仿一下，如果你和比尔·盖利一起开个播客会是什么样子。

J Cal, do an impression for us of what it would be like if you and Bill Gurley started a podcast together.

好了，各位。

Alright, everybody.

欢迎来到JCBG播客。

Welcome to the JCBG podcast.

我是你们的主持人，杰森·卡利卡尼斯。

I'm your host, Jason Kallikanis.

我是比尔·盖利，我们现在在德克萨斯州的特里·布莱克餐厅，吃着牛肉肋排，同时讨论一下对平台型企业的投资，以及我的新书《Running Down a Dream》，这本书能教会你的孩子如何不做‘向上攀附者’。

And I'm Bill Gurley, and we're here in Texas at Terry Black's where we're getting some beef ribs, and we're gonna discuss investing in marketplaces as well as my new book, Running Down a Dream, which will teach your kids how to not be ups.

如果你的孩子是‘向上攀附者’，你可以用这本书敲他们的后脑勺。

And if your kids are ups, you can hit them in the back of the head with the book.

德克萨斯风格。

Texas style.

其中一个重大议题，我认为你正在与特朗普总统的政策相关的工作，就是这项能源承诺。

One of the big topics, and I think something you're working on with president Trump's acts, is this energy pledge.

我最近一直听到一些关于这方面的风声。

I've been seeing rumblings about this.

解释一下，如何让全国在数据中心和能源问题上达成一致。

Explain what's going on in terms of getting the country in sync around these data centers and energy.

总统昨晚在国情咨文中宣布，他支持一项用户费用保护承诺，要求主要科技公司自行承担人工智能数据中心的电力需求，以确保居民电价不会上涨。

Well, the president announced in the state of the union last night that he supports a rate payer protection pledge, which requires the major tech companies to provide for their own power needs for AI data centers so that residential consumers do not see their rates going up.

我觉得这完全合理。

I think this makes total sense.

我认为，特拉瓦斯，正如你所指出的，许多反对新建数据中心的原因，正是当地居民担心他们的电费会上涨，但实际情况不该如此。

I think, Travath, to your point, this is the reason behind a lot of the opposition to new data centers is that the local residents fear that their electricity prices are gonna go up, And that shouldn't be the case.

因此，总统表示，他承诺不会让居民电价因数据中心而上涨。

And so the president has said that he's committed to not allowing residential rates to go up as a result of data centers.

这非常直接明了。

It's pretty straightforward.

让大型科技公司，也就是超大规模云服务商，承担电力成本的上涨，或者允许它们自建计量表后的电力设施。

You get the big tech companies, the hyperscalers to pay for the increase in the electricity cost or you let them set up their own power behind the meter.

总统一年多来一直在谈论这一点，我们最大的人工智能公司也将成为大型电力公司，因为我们允许它们在计量表后自行建设发电设施。

And the president's been talking about this for over a year that our biggest AI companies would also become big power companies because we had let them stand up their own power generation behind the meter.

因此，这些数据中心甚至不需要接入电网。

So these data centers don't even have to connect to the grid.

它们完全可以自行开展协作托管。

They could just do colocation themselves.

但我也认为，有了这项电价保护承诺，你将会看到消费者电价实际上可能下降。

But also, I think that with this rate payer protection pledge, what you're gonna see is that it could actually bring down consumer prices.

因为当这些数据中心自行供电并接入电网时，它们可以将多余的电力回馈给电网。

Because what happens is that when these data centers then set their own power and connect to the grid, they can give back the excess to the grid.

此外，它们还将投资扩大基础设施。

Also, they will make investments in scaling the infrastructure.

因此，尽管电力按计量收费，但发电成本并非全部是可变的。

So although electricity is priced at a metered rate, the cost to generate it are not all variable.

这里面有大量的固定成本。

There's a lot of huge fixed costs in there.

所以当你扩大规模时，实际上可以降低计量费率。

So when you increase scale, then you can actually reduce the the metered rate.

因此，这实际上是对伯尼·桑德斯的反驳，他只想彻底阻止所有进展。

So again, you know, this is really I think the rebuttal to Bernie Sanders who just wants to stop all progress whatsoever.

我看到一个有趣的帖子，称这是荒谬的——在任何地方、靠近任何人的地方都绝不建设。

I saw a funny post calling it bananas, which is build absolutely nothing anywhere near anyone.

所以这

So this is

听起来是可持续的。

sounds sustainable.

这正在取代新的邻避主义，意味着你根本不能建设任何东西。

Is replacing the new NIMBY, so you just can build absolutely nothing.

是的。

Yeah.

我认为总统的这种方法在这里找到了一个非常好的平衡点，那就是：我们可以取得进展。

Think the president's approach finds a very good balance here, which is, look, we can have progress.

只是别让住宅消费者为此买单。

Just don't make residential consumers pay for it.

让大型科技公司自己承担费用。

Let the big tech companies pay for it themselves.

我认为下周白宫会就这个问题发布更多消息。

And I think you'll see more coming out about this in the White House next week.

这真是一个巧妙的举措。

Quite a deft move.

弗赖贝格，美国应该如何思考这场大规模数据中心建设带来的能源消耗问题？如果你把时间跨度扩展到未来十年的话。

Freiberg, how should America be thinking about this great data center build out energy usage, you know, if you expand it out over the coming decade?

你该如何向你所提到的社会主义运动背景来解释这一点？

And how do you sell that to the backdrop that you talk about, the socialist movement?

你下周将在《全面访谈》节目中与雷·达利奥进行一次精彩的访谈。

You got a great interview coming out with Ray Dalio on the all in interview program next week.

你怎么看待这些相互冲突的力量？

How do you think about those competing forces?

一边是社会主义者说疯狂、邻避、慢下来、海水淡化，另一边是我们正在参与的这场追求效率、机遇与富足的惊人竞赛。

You've got the socialists saying bananas, NIMBY, slow down, desal, and then you've got this incredible race we're in for efficiency and this opportunity and abundance.

你打算如何说服人们，把这两方结合起来？还是说

How would you sell it to kind of bring these two sides together, or is it

根本不可能？

just impossible?

进出数据中心的数据传输速度接近光速，因此它们可以建在任何地方。

The data coming in and out of data centers moves at roughly the speed of light, so you could put them anywhere.

我认为我们的政策制定者必须充分意识到这一点。

And I think that our policymakers need to be very cognizant of that fact.

我们确实通过高速电缆和光纤在全球范围内连接互联网。

You have and we do connect the Internet using high speed cable, high speed fiber optic throughout the world.

所以，如果我们不拥抱并允许数据中心产业的经济发展——它将真正成为一个产业，因为它几乎就像新的石油——那么石油钻井平台该去哪儿呢？

And so, theoretically, if we don't embrace and allow the economic development of the data center industry, and it will fundamentally be an industry because it is almost like the new sort of oil, Where are the oil rigs gonna go?

铁路该往哪里建？

Where are the railroads gonna go?

电报线路该往哪里架？

Where are the telegraph lines gonna go?

工厂该往哪里设？

Where are the factories gonna go?

如果我们不把它们建在这里，别人就会建在他们的海岸线上。

If we don't put them here, someone else will put them on their shores.

别人会把它们建在他们的国家里。

Someone else will put them in their country.

别人会把它们建在他们的管辖范围内。

Someone else will put them in their jurisdiction.

而那些建造这些设施的人、为这些设施提供电力的能源产业，以及由此衍生出的第二、第三产业所带来的大量经济价值，都将流向其他地方。

And a lot of the economic value that arises from the people that will build those facilities, the energy that will be installed to produce power for those facilities, and then all of the second and third order industries that emerge as a result of those installations, that value will accrue elsewhere.

说得太好了。

Such a good point.

所以是的。

So Yeah.

它不会就这样消失。

It's not gonna, like, just go away.

需求是存在的。

The the demand is there.

经济正在向前发展。

The economy is moving forward.

人工智能正在向前发展。

AI is moving forward.

我们生活在一个有196个国家的世界，而数据中心并不占太多空间。

We live in a world with a 196 countries, and data centers do not take up a lot of space.

相对于它们所产生的经济价值，它们非常小。

They're very small relative to the economic value that they produce.

如果你从世界地图上远观，全球所有的数据中心加起来还不到针尖大小。

If you zoom out on the map of the world, all the data centers in the world fit under the tip of a pin.

因此，数据中心的占地面积非常小，如果我们为了这个就要放弃数十万个工作岗位和数千亿美元的经济价值创造，那我们的世界观就太愚蠢、太狭隘了。

And so this is a very small footprint, and if we're gonna give up hundreds of thousands of jobs and many billions of dollars of economic value creation, we're being pretty silly and and pretty obtuse in our view of the world.

我只想鼓励我认为正确的那种制度，我们上次也讨论过：只要数据中心自己发电，就意味着它们没有从电网取电，而原本这些电力是会被电网使用的，这样一来就能降低其他居民和工业用户的电费。

I would just, like, encourage the system that I think is the right system, and we talked about this last time, where provided data centers are producing their own electricity, that means that you're taking electricity consumption off the grid because they otherwise are not being used on the grid, and that will reduce the cost of electricity for other residential and industrial users.

所以，认为我们需要对数据中心实施暂停建设的禁令，这种想法太荒谬了。

So it's silly to think that we need to put a moratorium on data centers.

一旦你这么做，使用数据中心的公司并不会放慢脚步。

As soon as you do that, the companies that use data centers are not gonna slow down.

它们只会把数据中心搬到其他地方，而我们会错失良机。

They're gonna go put them somewhere else, and we're gonna miss out.

这个观点太棒了，沙莫特，因为我们最近刚去过中东，我在沙特和阿联酋也去过很多次。

And it's such a good point, Shammoth, because we were recently in The Middle East, and I've been there a bunch in Saudi, UAE.

这些国家建造了大量石油炼化设施，他们对此非常了解。

These are the folks who built a large portion of those oil refineries, and they are savvy to this.

那么，沙特、阿联酋、卡塔尔这些地区的人们正在做什么呢？

And what are they doing in Saudi, UAE, Qatar, all of these regions?

他们正在加倍投入。

They're doubling down.

他们的数据中心建设规模扩大了十倍。

They're 10 x ing their data center builds.

所以，弗里德伯格，你的观点是对的，要么我们来建设，要么他们就会去别的地方，而有些人愿意为这些项目提供资金，并愿意简化这里的审批流程，比我们更快地推进。

So to your point, Friedberg, either we build them or they're gonna go somewhere else, and there are people who are willing to underwrite these, and they're willing to take out the red tape from the process here and move quicker than us.

所以，我认为特朗普总统说‘嘿’，这是一个非常明智的举措。

So we I think this is a pretty deft move by president Trump to say, hey.

你们都应该保证消费者不会受到影响。

You guys should all just guarantee that consumers don't get impacted.

水资源的问题完全是骗局。

The water thing is a total hoax.

水是循环使用的。

Like, the water is recirculated.

这根本就是个骗局。

That's a hoax.

我觉得这

I think this

真的很聪明。

is really smart.

我认为总统和萨克斯所做的事情都非常明智。

I think that what the president's doing and what Sacks is doing is really smart.

需要记住的是，价格仍有上涨的风险，但这与这些数据中心无关。

The thing to keep in mind is that there's still a risk that prices go up, and it has nothing to do with these data centers.

而完全与作为公用事业的商业模式有关。

And it has everything to do with the business model of being a utility.

因为为了获得在某个地区为社区提供能源、发电的垄断许可，交易所的操作方式如下。

Because what happens is in order to get a license, a monopoly license in an area to provide energy, to generate energy for a community, the exchange works in the following way.

你需要向公共事业委员会提交资本支出计划。

You go and you present a CapEx plan to the public utilities commission.

这实际上就是你的预算。

That's effectively your budget.

这意味着：我要升级这些线路。

That says, here are the lines I'm going to upgrade.

我要升级这些发电机。

Here are the generators I'm going to upgrade.

与数据中心无关，现实是，每个美国人的电力消耗正在上升，因为我们拥有的设备越来越多。

Independent of data centers, the reality is the draw, the electricity consumption of individual Americans is going up because we have more devices.

我们有汽车。

We have cars.

我们还有所有这些其他东西。

We have all of these other things.

因此，我们还必须审视公用事业公司的商业模式如何通过各种投资来激励他们提高价格。

So what we also have to do is we have to look at how utilities' business model actually incentivizes them to increase prices by making all kinds of investments.

因此，我们必须确保让每个人都能承担责任，否则你可能会看到，数据中心自己承担了负担，但价格仍在持续上涨，因为一家公用事业公司说：我今年需要花十亿美元来升级我的基础设施。

So we have to do a good job of making sure we hold everybody accountable because, otherwise, what you could see is that the data centers taking on the burden for themselves, but prices still continuing to escalate because a utility says, I need to spend a billion dollars this year to upgrade my infrastructure.

而这使他们能够将这十亿美元用于投资并获得回报。

And what that allows them to do is take that billion dollars and essentially invest it for a return.

这就是公用事业公司的商业模式。

That's the business model of utility.

这确实在蓝州正在发生。

And this is really happening in blue states.

美光公司在纽约有一个价值一千亿美元的超级晶圆厂，现在有六方提起诉讼。

Micron has a $100,000,000,000 mega fab in New York, and there's a lawsuit by six.

一、二、三、四、五，这第六方太可耻了。

One two three four five This is six is shameful.

公民们。

Citizens.

这太可耻了。

That's shameful.

这个项目从宣布到破土动工花了1200天，其中612天用于环境影响评估。

And the project has taken twelve hundred days, twelve hundred days between their announcement and the groundbreaking, and they spent six hundred twelve days on the environmental impact study.

人们醒来，直接去得克萨斯州吧。

People wake up, just go to Texas.

埃隆在这里建了他的工厂，即吉加工厂，不到十八个月就建好了。

Elon built his factory here, the Gigafactory, in under, like, eighteen months.

这就是伟大的德克萨斯州。

This is the great state of Texas.

来这儿吧。

Come here.

我们为你建好，你就完事了。

We'll build it for you, and you'll be done.

是的。

Yeah.

我不明白为什么还有人 bother 去蓝州了。

I don't know why anyone bothers with the blue states anymore.

他们在建设上设置的障碍太多了。

They make it too hard to build.

这太荒谬了。

It's retarded.

太蠢了。

So dumb.

这还是个自我拥有的项目。

It's such a self owned too.

你不想参与未来吗？

Like, what don't you wanna be part of the future?

你实际上正在拖累整个国家。

You're literally ankling the entire country.

耻辱。

Disgratiot.

顺便说一句，纽约有很多人想工作。

By the way, there are a lot of people in New York who wanna work.

这其实并不是因为新工厂不受欢迎。

This is not a case actually of this new fab being unpopular.

该地区大多数人都希望建这座工厂。

The majority of people in the area actually want this plant being built.

他们想要那里将要带来的工作机会。

They want the jobs that are gonna come there.

很多人说数据中心创造不了多少工作。

A lot of people say data centers don't create a lot of jobs.

这实际上是一个芯片工厂。

This is actually a chip fab.

所以它会创造大量工作，许多高薪的好工作。

So it will create a lot of jobs, lot of good high paying jobs.

人们希望它建成，但六个人可以在它通过两年环境审查后，通过一场诉讼阻止它。

People want it, but six people can stop it with a lawsuit after it's already been through a two year environmental review.

这并不是蓝州和红州的问题。

It's not blue and red states.

这些是组织起来制造这种混乱的非营利组织。

These are nonprofits that get organized to create this kind of chaos.

我记得看过内华达州一项大规模的锂投资，其目的就是为了实现锂生产的本土化。

I remember looking at a massive lithium investment in Nevada, and the whole point was to domesticate lithium production.

有趣的是，这个巨大的矿藏就摆在那儿，等待开发，就在他们即将获得环境批准或刚获得批准的时候。

And what was interesting is this enormous deposit that's just sitting there ripe for development, right before they were about to get environmental approvals or right after.

有人提起诉讼，声称要保护上陆松鸡。

There was a lawsuit by people who wanted to protect the Upper Land Grouse.

这一点深深印在我的脑海里：内华达州的上陆松鸡，竟成了我们无法实现锂资源自主供应的原因。

It seared in my mind that the Upper Land grouse of Nevada is the reason why we do not have domestic national security around lithium.

你必须问自己，为什么这种情况可能发生？

And you have to ask yourself, why is this possible?

这是因为这些环保非营利组织可以随意制造这种混乱，而自己却完全不必承担任何风险。

And it's possible because you have these environmental nonprofits that can go and create this chaos with absolutely no risk to them.

零风险。

Zero.

他们可以为此筹款，并制造这种混乱。

They can fundraise around it, and they can create this chaos.

我的意思是，尼克，到目前为止，这正是绿色和平组织的一个例子。

I mean, Nick, to this point, this is an example of Greenpeace.

而在这里，他们强烈反对一条石油管道，制造了如此大的混乱，以至于被起诉了。

And specifically here, they were pushing back on an oil pipeline to such a degree, and they created so much chaos that they were sued.

北达科他州的一名法官刚刚表示，他将下令绿色和平组织支付因这些抗议活动造成的赔偿，总额接近3.5亿美元。

And a North Dakota judge just said that he's gonna order Greenpeace to pay damages that should total almost $350,000,000 in connection to those protests.

六个人就拖慢了一个价值1000亿美元的投资计划，这不应该是这样。

And it should not be the case that six people can slow down a $100,000,000,000 investment package.

这不对。

That's not right.

嗯，我认为这里有个问题，我想强调一下这个重要的观点。

Well, I think there's and and I just wanna highlight this important point.

这其中缺乏很多逻辑和理性。

There's not a lot of logic and reason.

你们说得对。

You guys are right.

但我认为这其中充满了情绪，对大型科技公司的强烈反感，对少数个人和公司创造财富的强烈反感，以及对那种不惠及所有人的经济增长的强烈反感。

But I do think there's a lot of emotion, and there's a huge aversion to big tech, a huge aversion to wealth creation by select individuals, select companies, a huge aversion to economic growth that doesn't benefit everyone.

有一种根本性的、被忽视的情绪在驱动着这一切。

There's a fundamental kind of underlying left behind emotion that drives a lot of this.

我以前也说过，但我觉得，除非有某种系统或机制能让人跟上价值创造的步伐，帮助他们将自己的生活与正在实现的价值创造联系起来，否则他们是不会支持的，因为人们对大型科技公司、财富差距、以及少数公司或个人积累价值存在着一种根本性的对立，而这正是这种情绪的根源。

And I've said it before, but I think unless there's systems or mechanisms that get folks to come along with the value creation ahead and and help them connect their own lives to the value creation that's being realized, they're not gonna be supportive because there is this kind of diametric opposition towards big tech, towards the wealth gap, towards value accrual to a select few companies or select few individuals, and this fuels and feeds that.

所以我认为，从根本上说，问题可能不仅仅在于为数据中心提供独立的电力容量，还必须有机制和工具，让更广泛的人群理解、认识到或从中受益，让他们成为其中的所有者或参与者，因为他们拥有这种权力。

So I think fundamentally, maybe it's not just about giving the data centers their own power capacity, but there's gotta be mechanisms and tools that helps the broader population understand or recognize or get some benefit from it as well where they're an owner in it or participant in it because they have the power.

正如我们所见，他们确实有力量阻止这一切。

As we're seeing, they have the power to stop it.

因此，他们希望在赋予这种权力的同时，也能获得一些回报。

Therefore, they wanna have some benefit for providing authority to do it.

这六个人关心的是住房成本、工人接触有毒化学物质、污染、空气和水质、温室气体排放、能源消耗、湿地淹没等问题，而这些显然都是可以缓解的。

And these six people are concerned about housing costs, worker exposure to toxic chemicals, pollution, air and water, greenhouse gas emissions, energy consumption, flooding of the wetlands, all these things that obviously could be mitigated.

好的。

Alright.

我们继续吧。

Let's keep moving here.

我们还有很多事项要处理。

We got a lot more docket to get through.

国情咨文时长为108分钟，是六十年来最长的一次。

State of the Union came in at one hundred eight minutes, and it's the longest in sixty years.

实际上，这是自开始统计以来最长的一次。

Actually, longest since they started tracking this.

今年特朗普总统国情咨文的主题是：美国250强。

The theme of president Trump's State of the Union this year, America at two fifty.

强大、繁荣且受尊重。

Strong, prosperous, and respected.

特朗普多次炫耀自己的政绩：通货膨胀、就业、边境管控。

Trump took a bunch of victory laps, inflation jobs, closing the border.

这些方面都进行得非常顺利。

All those have gone really well.

但这一切发生在特朗普支持率严重下滑的背景下。

But this comes to the backdrop of Trump's approval rating being super challenged.

他第一年的支持率是+11.7%。

He started his first year at plus 11.7%.

现在他的支持率是-14.3%，下降了26个百分点。

Now he's negative 1414.3%, 26 swing.

经济起初是+3.4%，降至18.2%；贸易起初是5.9%，我们稍后会讨论关税问题，之后降至22.7%。

Economy started plus 3.4, down to 18.2, and trade started at 5.9%, and we'll talk about the tariff stuff later, and went down to 22.7.

所以，让我们来公正地评判一下，各位。

So let's call balls and strikes here, gentlemen.

最精彩的时刻。

Favorite moments.

你最喜欢 State of the Union 的哪些片段？对特朗普长达一小时四十五分钟的演讲，总体印象如何？

What were your favorite moments from the State of the Union and just general impressions of one hour and forty five minutes of Trump going to town?

我觉得很棒。

I thought it was great.

最精彩的时刻是？

Favorite moment?

最喜欢的时刻是一两个吗？

Favorite moment or two?

嗯，我有几个。

Well, I had a couple.

一个是埃隆、奥马尔、拉希达的死亡凝视，然后就直接崩溃大喊大叫。

One was the Elon, Omar, Rashida play death stare and then just, like, losing their minds and and screaming.

我觉得这太不美国了。

I just thought it was so un American.

第二个是他呼吁法律与秩序，强调优先关注美国公民。

The second was when he was calling for law and order where I'm focusing and prioritizing on American citizens.

而那些

And none of

非法移民。

the legal, aliens.

也没有任何一位民主党人站起来。

And none of the Democrats stood up.

我觉得这有点愚蠢。

I thought that was kind of foolish.

都是一些很明显的事，但民主党人却不鼓掌。

It was, like, obvious things, and the Democrats wouldn't applaud.

但这次他们鼓掌了，就像为冰球队鼓掌一样，我觉得这样做是对的。

But this time, they did, like they did for the hockey team, which I thought was, like, the right thing to do.

第四件事是向我们的朋友布拉德·格斯特纳致敬，他得到了总统的大力赞扬。

And then the fourth thing is just a a shout out to our friend Brad Gerstner who got a big shout out from the president.

我不知道，萨克斯，这是否是你安排的，但那真是太棒了。

I don't know, Sacks, if you engineered that or not, but that was That fantastic.

太惊人了。

Was incredible.

他得到了双重致敬。

He got, like, a double shout out.

就像是双重击掌。

It was like a double tap.

是的

Yeah.

那真的非常不真实。

That was really surreal.

我们的群聊彻底炸了。

Our group chat group chat went crazy.

它当时是

It was

真的很棒。

really it was really cool.

这四个就是我的亮点。

Those are my four highlights.

很好。

Great.

这是你的片段，关于民主党人不为美国人站起来，却为非法移民站起来。

Here's your here's your clip of, yeah, Democrats not standing for Americans over illegal aliens.

20。

20.

如果你同意这个说法，请站起来表示你的支持。

If you agree with this statement, then stand up and show your support.

美国政府的首要职责是保护美国公民，而不是非法移民。

The first duty of the American government is to protect American citizens, not illegal aliens.

你为什么不支持这一点呢？

Why wouldn't you stand for that?

这个很容易支持。

That's an easy one to stand for.

这毫无道理。

Doesn't make any sense.

你会支持吗，切考？

Would you stand for it, Chekau?

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是，我可能是反对ICE的，但我支持美国和合理的移民政策，就像全国90%的人一样。

I mean, I I'm I'm pro I'm I could be anti ICE, but I'm pro American and pro reasonable immigration like 90% of the country is.

所以这根本说不通。

So it just doesn't make any sense.

但你有什么重点吗？

But do you have any highlights?

你觉得美国公民应该优先于非法移民吗？

Think American citizens should be prioritized over illegals?

当然。

Of course.

当然。

Of course.

是的。

Yes.

当然。

Of course.

是的。

Yes.

而且我也认为，那些在这里已经待了一段时间的人应该有获得公民身份的途径，我认为这正是大多数

And then I I also think there should be a path to citizenship for people who've been here for a while, and I think that's what the majority of

国家

the country

所支持的。

thinks as well.

你的意思是，我可以在脑海中同时持有两种观点，所以如果他问我，我会支持的。

Your point is I can hold two thoughts in my head, so I would have stood if he asked me.

是的。

Yes.

显然，我们应该先照顾好美国公民。

Obviously, we should take care of American citizens first.

是的。

Yes.

我们应该驱逐暴力罪犯。

And we should deport violent criminals.

我们在这里已经讨论过无数次了。

We've over this, like, a million times here.

这在全国范围内是共识。

This is, like, consensus in the country.

当别人说‘我们不能容忍这种情况’时，你认为他们那边到底在想什么？

What do you what do you think is going on in everybody else's side when they're like, we gotta we cannot stand for this.

这就是

This is how

我的意思是，我觉得这就像关税问题。

sides I mean, I think it's like the tariff thing.

就像移民局执法的问题。

It's like the ICE thing.

这两方根本无法合作。

These two sides cannot work together.

这是有史以来最两极分化的时刻。

It's just the most polarized it's ever been.

特朗普并不是那种会跨越党派界限的人。

Trump is not, like, the kind of guy to reach across the aisle.

民主党现在也坚定了立场。

The Democrats are now digging in.

所以我们现在有一个功能失调的政府，而在更正常的时期，比如克林顿或布什执政时，人们本会坐下来协商。

So we just have a dysfunctional government where, you know, in a more functional time period, like under Clinton, let's say, or Bush, people would have gotten together.

我跳到关税讨论了，他们本会说，是的。

I'm I'm jumping ahead to the tariff discussion, and they would have said, yeah.

当然。

Of course.

关税是由国会决定的。

Tariffs are done in congress.

这是法律，不管怎样。

That's the law, whatever.