索拉纳的阿纳托利·亚科文科谈加密货币的下一个时代：量子计算、人工智能与货币的未来

阿纳托利是一家名为Solana的小型加密项目公司的首席执行官。

Anatoly is the CEO of a little crypto project known as Solana.

这是全球增长最快的区块链之一。

One of the fastest growing blockchains in the world.

作为Solana Labs的首席执行官，他正在推动Web3的创新。

As CEO of Solana Labs, he's driving Web three innovation.

全球最大的资产管理公司贝莱德将其17亿美元的代币化货币市场基金扩展到了Solana。

BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager, expanded its $1,700,000,000 tokenized money market fund to Solana.

我们为什么不都转向Solana呢？

Why don't we all switch to Solana?

说实话，Solana听起来确实很商业化，而其他项目听起来就像过时的东西。

Mean, Solana sounds like it's actually commercial, and the other guys sound like that they're antique.

全世界的每个人都应该是你的客户。

Everybody in the world should be your customer.

加密货币最终会获胜。

Crypto will eventually win.

这是不可避免的。

It's inevitable.

女士们、先生们，请欢迎Solana的联合创始人阿纳托利·亚科文科。

Ladies and gentlemen, please welcome Solana cofounder, Anatoly Yakovenko.

他来了。

There he is.

天哪。

Oh, man.

谢谢你们邀请我。

Thanks for having me.

你怎么样？

How you doing?

谢谢。

Thank you.

欢迎。

Welcome.

谢谢。

Thank you.

在大卫·萨克斯担任加密货币事务主管的前六个月里，他对你们这个行业产生了多大的影响？

How much of a difference has David Sachs made in the first six months as crypto czar for your industry?

哦，这简直太惊人了。

Oh, it's been incredible.

我的意思是，简直是天壤之别。

I mean, I think it it's night and day.

我不确定这个行业是否能再撑四年，熬过根斯勒的执政时期。

I don't know if the industry would have survived another four years of the Gensler regime.

我认为《天才法案》将释放出大约1万亿美元的稳定币，这些稳定币将部署在公开的无许可链上。

The Genius Act, I think, is going to unlock, you know, people estimate 1 to $10,000,000,000,000 worth of stable coins that are gonna be on public permissionless chains.

所以，如果你看看这些图表，目前谁持有美国国债——比如中国、日本等国家——我认为泰达币（Tether）大约排在第五位。

So if you kinda look at those charts, who owns treasuries and be with China, Japan, etcetera, countries right now, I think Tethr is somewhere around number five.

我认为在五年内，互联网将成为美国国债的最大持有者。

I think within five years, the Internet is going to be the largest holder of US treasuries.

国债。

Treasuries.

是的。

Yeah.

而且规模如此之大，我觉得，作为一名工程师，

And and at such a scale that I think, you know, I'm an engineer.

我无法真正想象这将如何改变金融体系，但我认为这将是变革性的。

I cannot honestly comprehend how that's gonna change finance, but I think it'll be transformative.

机遇？

Upside?

风险？

Downside?

我的意思是，这种大规模的去中心化也会带来一些担忧吗？还是说你本质上是个自由意志主义者，认为顺其自然就好？

I mean, are are there concerns there as well with that huge impact on democratization or are you kind of a, you know, libertarian, let the chips fall where they may, so to speak?

我认为这是一个巨大的机遇，能够极大加速美国的创新，并将美国金融推向全球。

I think it's a huge opportunity to really accelerate American innovation and spread American finance around the world.

我认为我们实际上拥有世界上最好的金融体系。

I think we actually have the best financial system in the world.

它是最受信任、最稳健的，监管环境也堪称一流。

It's the most trusted, the most robust, the best regulatory environment for for what it's worth as well.

但它是在二战后、互联网出现之前建立的。

But it was built after World War two before the Internet.

所以它的API就像传真机一样落后。

So, its APIs are kinda like a fax machine based.

我认为加密货币所允许的是，基于互联网构建一套全新的、完全与西方一致的技术栈。

What crypto is allowing I think is this new technology stack built on top of the Internet that's completely western aligned.

它追求透明度，支持资本主义，而现在我们能够真正将西方美国的金融体系与世界其他地区连接起来。

It's for transparency, it's for capitalism, but now we can actually interface Western US based finance to the rest of the world.

我认为美国将主要从这一变革中受益，而且会受益更多。

And I I think America is gonna benefit primarily from this, like more

不仅仅是我们的媒体业务走向全球，影响人们的意识。

Not just to our media business going around world and, you know, infecting people's consciousness.

当你刚开始推动Solana时，有多少是源于你自己的技术与架构愿景，又有多少是为了解决以太坊或比特币未能满足的需求，于是你决定自己尝试做这件事？

When you were getting Solana off the ground, how much of it was a technical and architectural vision that you had versus maybe a set of trade offs that you were trying to solve that ETH didn't fill or Bitcoin didn't fill and you said, I'm just gonna try and do this.

我认为，虽然我不能代表所有创始人，但创始人往往被一种疯狂的愿景所驱动。

I I think, you know, I can't speak for all founders but you know, I think founders are driven by kinda crazy vision.

他们必须有点疯狂。

They have to be a little bit insane.

我的疯狂愿景始终是这样一个想法：想象一下二三十年后的金融，那种科幻版的金融。

So my insane vision is always this idea like imagine finance twenty to fifty years from now, the science fiction version of finance.

我想象的是一个全球统一的巨型账本，一个覆盖世界上所有市场的单一计算机。

What I imagine is a single giant ledger, a single computer for every market in the world.

这意味着它在内罗毕、纽约、伦敦、新加坡都能使用。

That means it's available in Nairobi, in New York, in London, in Singapore.

所有这些地方的数据都通过光纤全球传输的光速往返时间同步，或者通过埃隆的卫星同步。

And all of these things are synchronized at the round trip time of speed of light through fiber around the world or, you know, through Elon satellites.

这大约是120毫秒。

That's a hundred twenty milliseconds.

是的

Yeah.

所以一美元可以在一百二十毫秒内出现在纽约、伦敦、新加坡和内罗毕。

So a dollar can be in New York, in London, in Singapore, in Nairobi in a hundred twenty milliseconds.

因此，资金和资产的周转速度达到了物理极限。

So velocity of money, velocity of assets are as fast as physics allow.

这就是让我着迷于构建这个系统的原因。

This is what nerd pilled me on building this.

这本质上是一个物理问题。

Like, it's a physics problem.

这是一个庞大的金融问题。

It's a massive finance problem.

这还是一个非常有趣的工程问题，低延迟的

It's a really fun engineering, low latency

你有没有觉得自己错过了什么？

And did you feel that you had missed it somehow?

当我有了那个顿悟时刻，并做了设计的背面信封计算时，我意识到这比以太坊快了一千倍，当我开始与以太坊社区的人交流时，他们关注的是结算。

When I when I had my kind of eureka moment and I did the back of the envelope calculation for design, I'm like, oh, this is a thousand times faster than ETH and when I started talking to folks in the ETH community, they're focused on settlement.

结算不会遇到这些延迟问题。

Settlement doesn't have these latency problems.

你可以用几分钟完成结算，是的。

You can do settlement in minutes Yeah.

这没问题。

And that's fine.

所以我一直觉得，以太坊是全球的结算层，而Solana是全球的执行层。

So I always felt that, you know, Ethereum being world settlement layer, Solana is the world's execution layer.

嗯，目前为止一切顺利。

And, you know, I So far so good.

是的。

Yeah.

目前为止一切顺利。

So far so good.

执行才是赚钱的地方。

Execution is where all the money's made.

所以我认为我们走在正确的道路上，一个快速的执行引擎也可以完成结算。

So, I think we're on the right track and a fast execution engine can also do settlement.

这算是一种优势。

That's kind of a feature.

你一直对两个项目持批评态度，即模因币，尽管它们确实为Solana带来了一些收入，还有加密战略储备这个想法。

So You've been super critical about two projects, Meme Coins, even though they they do throw off, I think, some revenue for Solana, and also the idea of a crypto strategic reserve.

这两个项目哪里让你觉得不妥？

What about those two projects tweak you a bit?

我认为主要原因是，我们无法预测链上会发生什么。

I think primarily we could not predict what's gonna happen on chain.

我们称之为区块链和纳斯达克速度。

We called it blockchain and Nasdaq speed.

这是我们当时的标语。

That was our tagline.

一直以来的想法都是，如何将全球各地的股票、债券、国债和现实世界资产上链，让全世界的人都能交易它们。

And the idea was always how do we get stocks and bonds and treasuries and real world assets on chain from all over all around the world to be traded by everybody around the world.

但事实证明，这比工程问题要难得多，是一个复杂的法律和监管问题。

But it turns out that is a much harder legal and regulation problem than it is an engineering problem.

但世界上任何人都可以为任何东西创建市场，包括模因币、NFT，这些项目迅速崛起。

But anybody in the world can create markets for anything including meme coins, including NFTs and those things took off.

我认为部分原因在于监管跟进得太慢。

I think in part because of how slow regulation was to catch up.

这让那些项目成为主流显得令人沮丧，因为它们

Which makes it annoying that those are

本该是你们真正使命的产物。

the things that come out instead of your true mission.

是的。

Yep.

我们看到了

We saw

我们昨天在这里见到了来自纳斯达克的黛娜。

we saw a Dina from Nasdaq here yesterday.

她宣布了将在交易所交易的证券代币化项目。

She announced the tokenization of securities that we're gonna trade on the exchange.

似乎有很多来自严格监管背景的受监管交易所和企业开始尝试区块链技术。

There seem to be a lot of regulated exchanges and businesses that come from that kind of deeply regulated background starting to experiment with blockchain technology.

你认为它们从现有背景出发，是会占据优势还是处于劣势？

Do you think they're going to be advantaged or disadvantaged given where they're coming from?

与监管机构的绑定、与监管机构的关系、以及与市场参与者的紧密联系，是否给了它们某种优势？

Does the lock in with regulators, the relationship with regulators, the lock in with the market participants give them some leg up?

还是你觉得颠覆者最终能够更自由、更迅速地运作？

Or do you think that the disruptors are ultimately gonna be able to operate more freely and more quickly?

这是巨大的挑战。

This is the big challenge.

我认为我们的优势在于非常灵活，能够在世界各地运营。

I think the advantage that we have that we are very nimble and we can operate everywhere in the world.

他们的好处是已经受到监管。

The advantage that they have is that they're already regulated.

他们已经在运营我们希望上链的资产，但仅限于美国境内，缺乏全球可用性。

They're they're already operating with those assets that we want on chain in The United States, but they don't have global availability.

纳斯达克仍然被困在这个小沙盒里。

Nasdaq is still in this little sandbox.

所以我们拭目以待吧。

So we'll see what happens.

我认为，一旦监管机构允许公钥和加密技术来管理和转移资产，那时你就可以围绕这个接口构建系统，开始在纳斯达克和Solana之间双向转移任何资产。

I think once the regulators allow public keys like cryptography to manage and transfer assets, That's the interface that you can wrap around and start moving fun you know, moving anything from inside Nasdaq to Solana and vice versa.

一旦这个接口存在，我觉得就像潘多拉的盒子打开了，牙膏已经挤出管子了。

Like once that interface exists, I think you kinda the genie's out of the bottle, know, the the toothpaste is out of the tube.

你有没有和受监管的交易所接触过？有没有可能建立双方都能受益的整合与合作关系？

Do ever meet with the regulated exchanges and are there ways to kind of build integration and partnership that both?

是的。

Yeah.

当然。

Of course.

对。

Yeah.

我们已经与从银行到受监管的交易所乃至监管机构本身的各种人士进行了交流。

So we've we've talked to folks I think across the spectrum from banks to regulated exchanges and and regulators themselves.

Solana 从根本上说是一个协议。

Solana is fundamentally a protocol.

它就像电子邮件标准一样。

It it's like an email standard.

它是一系列软件。

It's a bunch of software.

运行它的人并不向我汇报。

The people that run it don't report to me.

我无法解雇他们，所以即使我想阻止，也做不到。

I can't fire them so I can't stop it if I wanted to.

如果我们成功了，协议变得非常出色、全球同步且超高速，那么纳斯达克只需运行一个Solana节点并更直接地集成它，就能赚更多的钱。

And if we succeed, if the protocol is awesome and globally synchronous and super fast, Nasdaq would make more money by just running a Solana node and integrating with it more directly.

所以对我来说，这最终是一个双赢的局面。

So like to me it's ultimately a win win.

我们永远不会去建立一个面向美国机构用户的交易所。

We're never gonna build an exchange that is onboarding US institutional Yeah.

也不会面向美国客户运营。

And serving US customers.

我们希望纳斯达克来做这件事，并在Solana上运行它，那将非常好。

We want Nasdaq to do that and to run it on Solana and that would be great.

大众中有一种普遍的说法，这里的‘大众’指的是那些并非完全投身加密领域的人，他们认为加密技术仍然极其复杂难懂。

There's there's a common claim by the masses, meaning masses meaning not everybody that's sort of all in on crypto that it's still extremely complicated to understand.

即使只是铸造和销毁代币，或者收益耕作，你跟普通普通人一说，他们就一脸茫然。

You know, even if it's like just minting and burning or, you know, yield farming, you say it to just like the norm core person and their eyes glaze over.

是什么样的抽象层转变，让加密技术真正走向大众市场？

What's the turn in the abstraction of all of this stuff that makes crypto truly mass market?

我实际上认为，人类的大脑必须改变才能适应它。

I actually think that the human brain has to change to adjust to it.

我同意你的看法。

I agree with you.

这确实很复杂，但我1992年从苏联来到美国时，我父母根本无法理解什么是网页链接。

It's really complicated, but I landed in The States in 1992 from The USSR effectively and there's no way my parents could understand what a web link was.

是的。

Yeah.

对吧？

Right?

所以，每当出现新技术时，人们都需要很长时间才能接受并建立起对它的心理模型。

So it it's all whenever you have new technology, it just takes people a long time to adopt it and build a mental model for it.

但现在他们已经做到了。

But now they do.

经过多年的使用，他们已经理解了互联网。

They understand the web after years of of using it.

所以我认为，随着稳定币在许多公司的后台广泛普及，人们会意识到，私钥实际上非常重要。

So I think as stablecoins proliferate to the back office in a lot of companies, people will figure out, oh, the secret key is actually really important.

我需要硬件、需要公钥基础设施、需要可信显示，所有这些安全措施，他们将建立起对加密技术的心理模型，真正拥有可全球转移的资产。

I need hardware, need PKI, I need trusted displays, all all of the security stuff and they will build a mental model for cryptography having true ownership over something that is globally transferable.

我最近看到一张图表，显示过去三四年里，L1和L2项目数量每年都在持续增长。

I saw a chart recently that showed that the number of l one and l two projects keep growing year over year over like the last three or four years.

为什么会发生这种情况？

Why is that happening?

我认为这是因为

I think I think because this

它们满足了什么需求？

What what need are they filling?

我认为，成为金融领域的谷歌，这个机会太大了。

Well, I think the opportunity is so big to be the Google of finance.

对吧？

Right?

如果你成为所有金融和市场运行的唯一中心，那将是一个巨大的机会。

If you're like the one place where all of finance, all markets run, that is a massive opportunity.

所以我认为人们会持续推出L1和L2项目，彼此竞争。

So I think people are gonna keep launching l ones and l twos and all competitive.

它们都在与Solana竞争，这没问题。

They're all competing with Solana and that's fine.

我喜欢竞争，直到有人胜出为止。

I love competition until somebody wins it.

我认为，只要我们专注于改进产品，让它更快、更便宜、更可靠，我们就非常有可能成为服务整个金融行业的全球执行引擎。

I think as long as we're laser focused on improving the product, making it faster, cheaper, more reliable, we have a really good shot at of actually becoming that global execution engine that's serving all of finance.

除了金融领域，你认为未来五年最有潜力的垂直领域是什么？

Outside of finance, what do you think is the vertical that has the most promise over the next five years?

指的是加密货币领域，还是广义上的？

In crypto or general?

在加密货币领域。

In crypto.

无论是对于Solana还是任何加密项目，你认为人们没有给予足够关注的是什么？

Whether it's for Solana or any crypto project, where do you think people aren't putting enough attention?

我认为人们尝试过的所有东西都像是九十年代初期的实验，Frontster之类的都失败了，直到有一大批人理解了网络的工作原理，Facebook才突然崛起。

I think all the stuff that people have tried, it's kinda like early ninety days experimentation, frontster, all of those things failed until there was a critical mass of people that understood how the web works and then Facebook took off.

所以我认为，即使是那些用NFT作为方式来聚集艺术家群体、打造电影或故事并创造真正新IP的奇怪实验，

So I think even the weird experiments with NFTs being a way to create a community of artists to build a movie or story and create true new IP.

所有这些都会在五年或十年后，当我们达到临界规模时发生。

All that will happen just five years from now or ten years once we hit critical mass.

所以有很多失败的开端。

So a lot of false starts.

对。

Yeah.

而在那个失败者的墓地里，你可能会发现一些真正好的点子。

And somewhere in that graveyard, you might find some really good ideas.

当然。

Absolutely.

就像之前发生的事情一样。

Just like what happened.

然后，社交网络这个概念在我看来一直是个巨大的成功，比如像Digg或Reddit那样的形式，你可以用加密货币来点赞内容。

And then the social network concept always seemed to me to be such a winner, you know, whether it would be like a dig or a Reddit format where you could vote things up with a cryptocurrency.

你的评论 somehow 与之相关。

Your comments were somehow related to that.

我记得看过几个小项目打算投资，但老实说，我觉得创始人做不成，而我的判断是对的。

And there were a couple of little experiments I remember looking at for investment, but candidly, I didn't think the founders would pull it off and I was right in that case.

你是不是觉得，如果埃隆把狗狗币或Solana整合进X平台，让内容和行为本身内嵌某种货币机制，就有可能爆发出来？

Is that the one that you think could break out if Elon put into X, Dogecoin or put in Solana and there was some sort of currency inherent to the objects and the behaviors?

我个人认为，如果能抓住那种‘电光火石’般的魔力，你完全可以用加密货币打造一个能与TikTok竞争的产品，因为加密货币的变现机制与广告模式截然不同。

I personally think that you could build a competitive product to TikTok with crypto if the magic You caught that kind of lightning in a bottle because monetization mechanism with crypto is so different than the ad based one.

而广告模式会天然催生大量垃圾内容和重复内容，以求脱颖而出。

And the ad based one kinda creates this forcing function for a lot of spam and duplication to ride to the top.

那这具体会怎么运作呢？

How how would that work?

描述一下你对这种全新体验的产品构想。

Just describe your product thinking there, that that new kind of experience.

你觉得它会如何

How do think it

我认为你正在看到一些这样的情况在模因币中发生，那些与某种代币相关的创作者持续保持着市值和影响力。

would I think you're kinda seeing some of these things play out with meme coins where you have creators that are associated with a coin that continues to have market cap and traction.

但目前监管环境尚未明确将创作者的成功与该代币的价值直接挂钩。

And now the regulatory environment isn't here yet to clearly tie the success of that creator to the value of that coin.

你需要消除大量瓶颈，但这个产品已经存在了。

You need to remove a whole bunch of bottlenecks there, but the product exists.

人们观看这位特定创作者的直播，然后去买他的代币。

People watch that particular creator stream and go buy that coin.

一旦它真的看起来像一个投资机会，像杰森这样的人就会说：好吧，我现在有完整的法律保护，可以放心投入资金了。

Like, once it's Once it act is actually looks like an investment thing that Jason would be like, okay, I have all legal protection to actually put money in here.

这和我之前问尼尔和阿里的问题有关，那就是创作者能否以这种方式融资，然后利用这些资金，同时代币持有者能否真正获得该项目的股权，并长期分享其业绩回报，而不仅仅只是……

This is related to the financing question I was asking Neil and Ari about, which is can creators raise funding this way and then can they deploy that funding but then the coin holders can actually have equity in that project and in the performance of that project over time rather than it just be, you know If

如果监管环境发生变化，是的。

if the regulatory environment changes Yeah.

人们一直在回避这个问题，但我特别喜欢一个项目，Planosaurus 有这些可爱的恐龙，孩子们特别喜欢。

Like people have been dancing around this but but like there's this project that I love, Planosaurus has these cute little dinosaurs that are they've like kids love.

它们看起来就像皮克斯的恐龙。

It looks like a Pixar dinosaur.

它们因创作了一整套恐龙形象而获奖，并成功筹集了资金。

They've won awards for their animations and they raised funding because they created this collective set of of dinos.

如果这些恐龙未来能拥有版权和收益关联，那将非常棒，但目前我们还做不到，这让人很沮丧。

Now, it would be awesome if those dinos could actually have copyright and revenue association in the future, but like, we can't do that yet and that's frustrating.

但一旦我们获得足够的清晰度，这完全有可能实现。

But it could totally happen once we have enough clarity.

想象一下，如果我们小时候买了收藏品，比如我们都买了漫威漫画，而且我们还拥有漫威的股权，那该多好。

Well, just imagine like we we bought collectibles and if we all bought Marvel Comics when we were, you know, younger but we had equity in Marvel Correct.

三四十年后，这些角色爆红，而你拥有它们

Thirty, forty years later, those characters hit and you own

可能是野兽。

It could be Beast.

我的意思是，可能是先生。

I mean, could be Mr.

野兽。

Beast.

它也可能成为下一个创作者。

It Of could also be the next creator.

比如，你在关注一位新兴创作者，你想押注于他。

Like, you're watching an up and coming creator, you wanna bet on that.

那是Saks正在做的下一个项目吗？

Is that the next piece Saks is working on?

那是

Is that

CLARITY法案是关键所在。

the The CLARITY Act is the big piece.

这是一项相当重要的立法。

It's kind of a big piece of legislation.

对每个人来说都是如此。

For everybody.

是的。

Yeah.

所以，再说一遍，我是一名工程师。

So, again, I'm an engineer.

从我的角度来看，就是在美國籌集資金並試圖發行一個代幣。

This is from my lens is raising money in The US and trying to launch a token.

我們完成了一輪種子輪融資。

We raised a seed in a round.

籌集了大約1400萬美元，這太棒了。

It was about $14,000,000 which is amazing.

對於一個初次創業者來說，這簡直是驚人的成功。

It was, you know, like outright crazy success for a new a first time founder.

我不得不花掉其中的200万美元支付律师费，这占了我资金寿命的10%以上，只为弄清楚如何在美国推出一个代币。

I had to spend 2,000,000 of that on lawyer fees which is a more than 10% of my runway to figure out how to launch a token in The United States.

因为我有孩子在美国，这里是我的家，我永远不会离开，所以我必须在美国完成这件事。

And because I have kids in The US, this is my home, never leaving it, so I had to do it in America.

很多创始人实际上都离开了美国，到国外去操作。

A lot of founders actually just left to do it outside of The US.

因此，《清晰法案》是一整套复杂的立法，旨在尽量减少这种成本，让创始人更容易推出代币。

So the CLARITY Act is a whole bunch of complicated legislation to try to minimize, hopefully, that cost to make it much easier for founders to launch.

目前的摩擦实在太多了。

It's far too much friction right

现在。

now.

提供明确性。

Provides clarity.

我们的合伙人大卫·萨克斯几年前创办了一家公司，试图将加密货币与房地产等现实世界资产挂钩。

Our partner David Sachs launched a company a few years ago that was trying to tie crypto to real estate, like a real world asset.

告诉我们这个运动的宗旨是什么，如果成功了，它能带来什么实际用途？

Tell us about what that movement is all about and what the utility is that that is there if it works.

人们希望将现实世界的资产上链，因为去中心化金融（DeFi）对非相关性资产有需求。

So people want real world assets on on chain because there's demand for in DeFi for non correlated assets.

如果加密货币里的一切——所有关于借贷双方实时风险管理的创新——都毫无意义，因为如果所有东西都是模因币，全都高度相关，那就会同时崩盘。

Like if if everything that is in crypto, all this innovation around risk management in real time between, you know, borrowers and and lenders, it's useless because if everything's a meme coin, everything's correlated, it'll all crash at the same time.

无法对冲风险。

There's no hedging.

对吧？

Right?

金融中唯一的免费午餐就是非相关性资产，如果你有真正的对冲工具的话。

And the only free lunch in in finance is uncorrelated assets if you have true hedging.

所以我们需要房地产、债券、保险，以及石油、天然气等各类资产。

So we need real estate, bonds, insurance, whatever have you that has Oil, gas.

是的。

Yeah.

没错。

Exactly.

大宗商品，甚至加州的火灾保险。

Commodities, but like even California fire insurance.

如果能把这些放到链上，人们就能真正购买保险了。

It would be awesome to put that on chain because then people could actually buy insurance.

所有这些资产，如果……谢谢。

All those assets, if Thank you.

如果这些资产存在于这种全球同步的巨型状态机环境中，它们就可以协同工作，降低整个系统的风险，因为它们彼此不相关。

All those assets, if they exist in this kind of global synchronized giant state machine environment, can all be used together to reduce risk for the entire system because they're uncorrelated.

这实际上是金融领域唯一免费的午餐。

And that's actually the the only free lunch you can get in finance.

因此，对这些资产的需求很大，而且技术也已经具备，可以加以利用。

So there's a lot of demand for them and the technology is there to leverage them.

现在，我们只需要监管层面跟上步伐。

Now, we just need kind of the regulatory side to catch up.

我能换个话题吗？

Can I change tracks a little bit?

你是个工程师。

You're an engineer.

你从事密码学工作。

You work in cryptography.

你有接触过量子项目吗？

Have you visited quantum projects?

你觉得量子计算的发展现状如何？

What do you think is the state of development in quantum computing?

每个人的说法都不一样。

Everyone's got a different story.

有多少是市场营销中的炒作？

How much is kind of hype in marketing?

有多少是真实的？

How much is real?

那你认为在未来一段时间内会发生什么？

And what do you think is gonna happen over one period of

坦白说，我觉得五年内会有量子突破，部分原因是AI发展得太快了。

Honest answer, I feel like $50.50 within five years there is a quantum breakthrough and part of that is because of how fast AI

什么叫突破？

Just define breakthrough?

比如你能运行短算法吗？

Like You can run short algorithm?

我们应该把比特币迁移到抗量子的签名方案上。

We we should migrate Bitcoin to a quantum resistant signature scheme.

这是我的判断，因为现在有太多技术正在汇聚，AI从研究论文到实际应用的加速速度简直惊人。

This is my bet and this is because we're just So many technologies are converging right now and this asymptotic rate AI and how fast it's accelerating going from a research paper to an implementation is is like astounding.

所以我会鼓励大家加快步伐。

So I would I would try to encourage folks to speed things up.

我的依据是谷歌和苹果采用了抗量子的加密技术栈。

My cue for this is Google and Apple adopt a quantum resistant cryptographic stack.

现在是迁移的时候了，因为消费端的问题实际上已经解决了，你不需要再纠结于

This is the time to go migrate because now the consumer side of it is effectively solved and you don't have to kind of

所以你是关注谷歌的动向吗？

So you watch where Google's going?

是的。

Yeah.

不过，没错。

But, yeah.

如果你在这个领域工作，你确实应该担心；但对于普通公众来说，量子计算将极大地提升我们的处理能力，如果我们成功实现，它创造财富的潜力将不亚于人工智能。

I would I I think the the people You should be worried if you're in the field, but for the general public, quantum computing is such a massive unlock in terms of how much we can process that it's going to be as big of a wealth creator if if we pull it off as AI.

所以对我来说，这是一项大量的工程工作。

So I think this is to me like a lot of work, engineering work.

我们有合适的人来做这件事，但对其他人来说，这应该是一个巨大的机遇，但要

We have the right people to do it, but like for everyone else, it should be like a huge But to

你说得对，谷歌Willow项目关于突破的报告是由人工智能建模驱动的。

your point, the the reports on the breakthroughs on the Willow project at Google are driven by AI modeling.

是的

Yep.

AI正在解锁许多使其成为现实的能力，这似乎是一个加速器。

AI is unlocking a lot of the capabilities to make it real, which seems to be an accelerator.

这非常强大。

It's pretty powerful.

AI整体世界与加密货币的交集在哪里？

What's the intersection of all of of that world of just AI in general and crypto?

这个问题问得挺有意思，因为我觉得AI将会无处不在，加密货币也会无处不在，但这两者的交汇点却很难精确界定。

This is a funny thing to ask because I feel like AI is going to be everywhere and crypto is going to be everywhere, but where those lines cross is just really really hard to pin pinpoint.

我不想说一些陈词滥调，比如我们都有代理在互相转账，因为这太明显了。

I don't wanna say something lame like, oh, we all have agents sending money around because that's kind of obvious.

我的意思是，最初的尝试可能是说，或许存在计算网络，我们可以运行分布式学习或分布式推理，但这些项目真的没有兴起，也没有产生任何势头。

I mean, I think the first attempt was to kind of say maybe there are networks of compute and maybe we can run distributed learning learning or distributed inference, but those projects really haven't taken off and really generated any momentum.

是的

Yeah.

还没有。

Not yet.

而且again，因为它们在与全部集中部署、由传统金融资助的数据中心竞争，而你可以把这些资产上链，这正是我认为未来整合方式的很多方面。

And again, because they're competing with data center that is all co located, that is funded with traditional finance finance and and those things like And yeah, you can put those assets on chain and that that's a lot of ways how I think things are gonna integrate.

我们可能做的最具奇点意味的赌注是，有一个代理创建者，它像一个X人格，你可以用代币与之互动、购买并支付GPU费用。

Probably the most kinda like singularity bet we can make is you have an agent creator that is like an x personality that you can interface with tokens and buy into and pay for the GPUs.

这可能会很有趣。

That could be fun.

但比特币出人意料地表现出强大的韧性，而现在我们开始看到某些参与者垄断了其很大比例的份额，而这本不该发生。

But Bitcoin has turned out to be surprisingly resilient, but now we're starting to see certain players corner the market on large percentages of it, and that was never supposed to happen.

所以如果像MicroStrategy这样的公司拥有6%，考虑到大量死币的存在，实际占比可能还要高出50%。

So if something like MicroStrategy owns 6%, that's actually maybe 50% more than that because there's so many dead coins out there.

比特币的中心化让你感到担忧吗？

Does that worry you, the centralization of Bitcoin?

这是否意味着我们有机会重新开始一场新游戏？

And does that mean there's an opportunity to start the game anew?

我认为比特币能够抵御这些实体的崩溃。

I think Bitcoin is resilient to these entities collapsing.

当然，这过程中对持有比特币的人而言难免会伴随痛苦的风险，但比特币会挺过来。

Now, it's not gonna be without painful risk that in terms of like people that own Bitcoin, but the thing is it'll survive that.

人们所看重的比特币的所有特性，都会在这一过渡中保留下来。

And all the properties of Bitcoin that people value will remain through that transition.

所以，如果你真正看重比特币，你应该把这看作是增持它的机会。

So if you really value Bitcoin, you should see that as like an opportunity to own more of it.

所以

So

即使有人持有20%或30%呢？

Even if somebody were to own 20 or 30%?

似乎确实有人有这种意图。

Seems like there are people who actually have this intent.

这就是为什么我

That's why I'm

问这个。

asking.

是的。

Yeah.

我认为，只要存在一个开放的全球性竞争来获取比特币，任何人都能参与其中，而我们不会陷入某种监管噩梦——比如像上世纪七十年代那样无法拥有黄金。

I think as long as it's an open global competition for to acquire Bitcoin and anyone can participate in that and we don't end up in some kind of regulated nightmare, you know, like you can't acquire gold or something like in the seventies.

我认为比特币能够挺过这类冲击。

I think Bitcoin would survive those kinds of shocks.

比特币现在有价值到足以让朝鲜这样的国家这么做吗？我只是想泛化一下，说像国家支持的方式，试图渗透、攻击或窃取个人账户，这似乎正形成一种新兴趋势。

Is Bitcoin valuable enough now where it makes sense for I guess North Korea does this, but I was just gonna generalize and say, like, state sponsored ways of either trying to penetrate it, hack it, take individual accounts, like, it just seems like there's an an emergent trend here of this.

它的优势在于，这是你能构建的最简单的协议。

It is Its beauty is that it's the simplest protocol you can build.

因为它只专注于结算，从工程角度来看非常容易理解，而工作量证明嘛，我不知道。

Because it is focused on just settlement, it's very easy to under understand from an engineering point of view and proof of work is kind of a I don't know.

它确实是一个了不起的杰作。

It it is a brilliant It's masterpiece.

是的。

Yeah.

从优雅和简洁的角度来看，它是一场杰作，并且对各种攻击都有很强的抵抗力。

It's a masterpiece in terms of like elegance and simplicity and it's very robust to I think all sorts of attacks.

这并不意味着你不会遇到导致意外回滚的攻击，但我认为这种攻击极难实现，可能性极低，而且互联网高度互联，能够自动做出响应和应对。

Now, that doesn't mean that, you know, you can't have an attack that could cause, you know, rollback that's unexpected, but I think it's extremely hard to pull off, very unlikely, and the Internet is so super connected that it can automatically kinda respond and take action.

我其实想说的是，国家针对持有大量比特币的账户，试图找出其所有者，然后让他们交出这些币。

Well, I I actually meant more just like, you know, states targeting accounts that have large Bitcoin holdings and trying to figure out who owns them and then just basically getting them to give them the coins.

是的。

Yeah.

那种由国家支持的暴力攻击。

The those kind of state sponsored wrench attacks.

我认为，我们生活在西方的人应该坚定地维护财产权，认识到它们有多么重要，以及它们对西方和美国财富创造的基础性作用。

I think what, like, we should do live get living in the in the West is really have strong opinions about property rights and how important they are and how foundational they are to wealth creation in in the West in America.

我完全同意这一点。

I completely agree with this.

这是我们最好的防御方式。

And this is our best defense.

我完全同意这一点。

I completely agree with this.

并且要极度透明地公开谁拥有这些币。

And be hyper transparent who owns the coins.

因为这样一来，你就无法夺走别人众所周知的东西。

Because then, it's like you can't take away something that everybody knows you own.

但当你试图隐藏自己的所有权时，别人就更容易将它夺走。

But when you try to hide your ownership of it, more likely it's easier for somebody to take it away.

我认为隐私是一种权利，这是某人的权利，是的。

I think privacy is a right, so it's somebody's right Yeah.

能够这样做，但我认为我们在财富创造方面最好的策略实际上是捍卫这些权利，捍卫任何人想要拥有比特币的权利。

To to be able to do that, but I think our best bet in, you know, wealth creation is actually defending these rights and defending the right of somebody to to own Bitcoin if they want to.

如此巨大的利益下，它竟然从未被黑过，这真是非同寻常。

It's extraordinary that it hasn't been hacked with so much at stake.

也许你可以从一个架构师的角度来谈谈这个，而且

Maybe you could speak to it as just a an architect yourself and and

它之所以没有被黑，是因为它非常简单，作为一名工程师，你总是追求通过简洁来实现某种结果。

It is It The reason it hasn't been hacked is because it's so simple and, you know, as an engineer, you always strive for simplicity to achieve a certain outcome.

你并不总能一直做到这一点。

You can't always always achieve that.

Solana 要复杂得多，因为我们追求的是超高性能，而这本身就很难。

Solana is much more complicated because the outcome we're striving is hyper performance and it's just hard.

因此，Solana 因此变得复杂得多，但比特币被设计为一个非常简单的结算层，我认为，过去二十年里最酷的软件就是比特币的中本聪实现。

So like Solana is much more complicated as a result of that, but Bitcoin is designed for a very simple settlement layer that is I think, you know, the coolest thing, the coolest piece of software written in the last twenty years is I would say the Bitcoin like, Nakamoto implementation.

最近以太坊市场出现了巨大的复苏。

There's been an enormous reanimation in the ETH market recently.

你觉得这种复苏来自哪里？

Where do you think that comes from?

这是市场驱动和投机驱动的，还是你认为以太坊在比特币和 Solana 之间正在经历一场根本性的重新定位？

Is that market driven and speculatively driven or do you think that there's a a fundamental reimagining of where ETH lives in, you know, between Bitcoin over here and Solana over here?

我真心是以太坊的超级粉丝。

I'm a honestly a huge fan of Ethereum.

我觉得维塔利克是个了不起的人，杰出的工程师，而且有着非常清晰的愿景。

Like I think Vitalik is an amazing person, amazing engineer, and has a very strong vision.

这和我对Solana的愿景非常不同，看到这两种理念各自发展真的很棒。

It's very different from my vision for Solana and it's really cool to see those two play out.

如果我能预测自己的行为会引发价格变动，那我早就更成功了。

If I could predict what I do could cause a price change, I'd be a lot more successful.

你已经相当成功了，查马斯。

Well, you've been pretty successful, Chamath.

但没错。

But, right.

我们只是很难准确归因于你所做的事情，是的。

We've It it's just really really hard to attribute the work that you're Yeah.

你的交易网络流动性很强。

Look, your transaction network is quite liquid.

随着验证节点和客户端越来越多，这种情况会越来越明显。

Gonna become more and more and more as you have more validators, more clients, all that stuff.

另一个似乎已经形成垄断或双头垄断的交易市场是维萨和万事达，它们有点危险。

Another market that seems has built a monopoly or a duopoly around transactions who's a little bit at risk is Visa, Mastercard.

你怎么看这个问题？

What do you think about that?

我的相反观点是，我认为维萨和万事达更像是科技公司，如果你看看它们在总交易额上的利润率，只有10个基点。

My my like contrary opinion is that I think Visa and Mastercard are more technology companies and if you look at their like profit margin on the gross payment volume, it's like 10 basis points.

这简直像蒸汽一样。

It's like vapor.

我认为发卡行和收单行才是最容易被颠覆的部分，因为它们的利润率大约是2%，要高得多。

I think the issuer and receiver bank, those are the most disruptable pieces on there because their profit margins are like 2%, like much much bigger.

对。

Right.

维萨是一家端到端掌控客户的科技公司。

And Visa is a technology company that owns end to end the customer.

如果他们能绕过银行，后台直接进行稳定币转账，我认为他们会变得更加成功，而且能以更低的成本做更多的事。

If they could remove the banks out of the loop and just do stablecoin transfers behind the scenes, I think they become a lot more successful and they can do a lot more for, you know, a lot less.

做多稳定币，做空银行。

Long stablecoin, short banks.

我不是投资者，但是的，也许吧。

That I'm not an investor, but yeah, maybe.

查马斯？

Chamath?

这似乎是个不错的思路。

Seems like a good premise.

我对此无法评论。

I can't comment on this.

所以这就是同意了，大家。

So that's a yes, everybody.

大家都做空银行。

Everybody short the banks.

不。

No.

不。

No.

去用稳定币吧。

Go on stablecoin.

我让你这么做。

I'm telling you to do this.

这是财务建议。

This is financial advice.

除非它没有成功。

Unless it doesn't work out.

完全同意。

Totally.

我觉得什么都该做。

I feel like doing everything.