本集简介
双语字幕
仅展示文本字幕，不包含中文音频；想边听边看，请使用 Bayt 播客 App。
好了，各位。
Alright, everybody.
欢迎回到全球排名第一的播客。
Welcome back to the number one podcast in the world.
我们在播客里再见。
See you all in podcast.
大卫·萨克斯本周没能到场，但我们有三人组。
DavidSacks couldn't make it this week, but we have the trio.
大卫·弗里德伯格在这里，你们的科学之王，查马斯·帕利哈皮蒂亚。
David Friedberg is here, your sultan of science, Chamath Pali, Hapatia.
SpaceX于4月1日秘密提交了上市申请，目标估值为1.75万亿美元。
SpaceX filed confidentially to go public on April 1 targeting a 1,750,000,000,000.00 with the t valuation.
如果SpaceX上市时的估值达到1.75万亿美元——说一家公司的IPO估值是万亿美元，听起来真怪——它将成为全球第八大公司，仅次于台积电和沙特阿美。
When SpaceX goes public, if it's at that $1,750,000,000,000 valuation, so weird to say trillion dollar valuation for an IPO, they would be the eighth largest company in the world right behind TSMC and Saudi Aramco.
在本集播客录制时，这两家公司估值均为1.07万亿美元。
They're both worth 1 0.7 x at the taping of this podcast.
特斯拉以1.37万亿美元的估值位列第十。
Tesla is number 10 with $1,370,000,000,000 valuation.
嘿。
Hey.
如果将这两家公司合并——正如许多人推测的那样，未来某天可能会发生——你可以购买股票代码为elon的股票。
If you were to combine those two, as many people are speculating will happen at some point and you can buy the stock ticker e l o n.
这将是一家价值3.1万亿美元的公司，使其成为全球第四大公司，超越微软。
That would be a $3,100,000,000,000 company, and that would make them the fourth largest company ahead of Microsoft.
他们计划筹集750亿美元，这将是迄今为止规模最大的IPO融资。
They're aiming to raise Chamath seventy five billion, which would be the, by far, the biggest raise ever in IPO.
预计将在六月上市。
Expected to go out in June.
我认为他们原本想赶在4月20日上市，因为那样会更搞笑，但他们无法实现这个目标。
I think they were trying to hit the 04/20 date because that would have been even more hilarious, but they're not gonna be able to do that.
SpaceX最近以2500亿美元收购了X.ai。
SpaceX recently acquired X dot ai 250,000,000,000.
这包括X、Twitter以及X.ai这家大型语言模型AI公司，还有星链，它们贡献了SpaceX营收的50%到80%。
That includes X and Twitter and the X dot ai large language model AI company Starlink, generating between 5080% of SpaceX's revenue.
我们很快就会提供所有这些细节，据报道称，年收入将接近200亿美元。
We'll have all those details shortly, and it'll be close to $20,000,000,000 a year according to reports.
火箭发射业务占其余的40%，据报道称，2024年的收入为50亿美元。
Launch of rockets is the other 40% of the business, 5,000,000,000 in 2024 according to reports.
根据路透社的数据，总收入为202.5亿美元，利润为80亿美元，营收区间在150亿至160亿美元之间。
Total revenue, $20.25, 15 to 16,000,000,000 with 8,000,000,000 in profit according to Reuters.
那么我们先停在这里，接下来聊聊其他可能即将上市的IPO公司。
So let's stop there, and we're gonna talk about all the other IPOs that could be coming.
查马斯，我想大家真的很想知道，你可能在之前的节目中提到过，如果这次IPO顺利，特斯拉和SpaceX最终合并成同一家公司的可能性有多大？
Chamath, I think people really wanna know, and you may have mentioned this on an earlier episode, what are the chances that Tesla after if this IPO goes well, that Tesla and SpaceX could wind up being the same company we saw?
它们已经100%在协同合作。
They're collaborating 100%.
在芯片制造厂。
On a fab.
你是在说100%吗？
A 100% is what you're putting it on?
好的。
Okay.
好的。
Okay.
抱歉。
Sorry.
让我讲清楚一点。
Let me let me be clear.
99.999%。
99.999%.
好的。
Okay.
如果这两家公司合并，那意味着什么？
What will that mean when the if those two companies or when those two companies merge?
我职业生涯中一件特别棒的事是，你曾经在某个阶段拼命努力，然后突然接触到更高层次的东西？
One of the great things that happened in my career was there was a point where you know how, like, you grind at a level and then, you just get exposed to things at a different level?
然后你又持续努力多年，最终接触到另一个更高层次的东西。
And then you grind for years and you get exposed to things at yet another level.
在其中一个阶段，我非常幸运地通过托马斯·拉方特的引荐，认识了瓦切爾·利普頓律所的负责人。
In one of those steps, I was very fortunate to be introduced by Thomas LaFonte, actually, to the head of Wachtell Lipton.
这是一家律师事务所。
This is a law firm.
律师事务所。
Law firm.
他的名字叫爱德·赫尔利。
And his name is Ed Hurleyhy.
他说，这是美国最重要、最知名、管理最出色的顶尖律师事务所。
And he said, this is the most important, well known, well run, powerful law firm in America.
后来我看了他们的交易案例，发现他们几乎参与了所有重大交易。
Then I looked at the transactions, and they're just in the middle of everything.
现在，我的律师拉吉·纳拉扬，他为我处理一切事务，那些离开的资深合伙人，我可以作证，都非常出色。
And now, you know, my lawyer, Raj Narayan, who does everything for me, one of the senior partners that walked out, I can attest are incredible.
当我正在处理一堆交易时，他们对我说：‘查马斯，准备好缴税吧。’
And they said to me in the middle of all of this stuff when I was doing a bunch of deals, they said, Chamath, just get ready to pay a tax.
我问：‘这什么意思？’
And I said, what does that mean?
他们说，美国资本市场的一个特点是，你既可以非常有创意，做非凡的事情。
They said, the way that the American capital markets are set up is both that you can be incredibly creative and do incredible things.
但这一点我们上周也稍微讨论过。
But and we talked about this a little bit last week.
有一系列法律漏洞，让一些人能围着篮筐转悠，不管怎样都能赚钱。
There's a bunch of tort that allows folks to hang around the hoop and get paid no matter what.
你在所有的IPO中都能看到这种现象。
You see this in all IPOs.
股东诉讼层出不穷，他们试图从中组建集体诉讼。
Shareholder lawsuits abound, and they try to create a class out of it.
他们这样做的原因是存在董事和高管责任保险，该保险会赔付数百万美元。
And the reason they do that is that there's D and O insurance that then will pay out some number of millions of dollars.
律师拿走40%或50%，而这些原告只能得到几美元。
The attorneys take 40 or 50%, and then these plaintiffs get a few bucks.
当你看到这个只持有10股的人起诉特斯拉的薪酬方案并胜诉时，就能明白这种侵权操纵有多过分。
You saw how egregious this tort manipulation was when this guy with 10 shares sued Elon's comp package at Tesla and won.
这到底是什么呢？
And what was that really?
这其实是诉讼律师试图利用这一局面，牟取数亿美元的报酬。
That was the trial lawyers trying to get paid hundreds of millions of dollars by exploiting a scene.
这是一次敲诈。
Was a shakedown.
称之为
Call it
好了。
what is.
这是一次勒索。
It was a shakedown.
我为什么要提起这个？
Why am I bringing this up?
如果你以拉吉和埃德的例子来看，这次SpaceX的IPO将促成几件事情。
If you take the the Raj and Ed example of this, this SpaceX IPO is going to set up a couple of things.
首先是市场自然产生的噪音，埃隆必须处理所有这些琐碎的小事。
The first is there's just gonna be the natural noise in the market, and Elon will have to sort through all of the little ticky tacky things.
但IPO带来的最重要积极影响是，为SpaceX提供了一个经市场验证的公允价值评估。
But the most important positive thing that will happen from the IPO is a validated external mark to market valuation of SpaceX.
而市场每天都会实时提供特斯拉的公允价值评估。
And the market every day in real time gives you a valid mark to market assessment of the value of Tesla.
这让你能够将这两者结合起来，以最小化这些损失。
And this allows you to put these two things together to minimize these losses.
我认为这正是埃隆真正需要的。
And I think that that's what Elon really needs.
这将极大地简化他在治理方面的事务。
It'll make his life tremendously simpler from a governance perspective.
这将使公司对他时间分配的争议变得无关紧要，因为没有人会讨论扎克、萨提亚、孙达尔或詹森在Meta、谷歌、微软或英伟达内部如何分配时间，同样，也不该对埃隆提出这种质疑，因为正如你所看到的，他所从事的各项事业之间存在着巨大的共通性。
It'll make the companies and this quibbling about his time a nonissue because, again, nobody talks about Zak or Satya or Sundar or Jensen allocating time across various projects inside of Meta or Google or Microsoft or NVIDIA, nor should they really make this claim from Elon because as you're seeing, there's actually an enormous overlap in commonality to the various things that he is doing.
他在研发机器人，但这些机器人被用于SpaceX。
He's building the robots, but they're used inside of SpaceX.
他在建设TeraFab。
He's building a TeraFab.
这些机器人也被用于特斯拉。
They're used inside of Tesla.
他在打造XAI。
He's building XAI.
它们在两个领域都有应用。
They're used across both.
所以我认为我们必须这么做。
So I think we need to do this.
这将减少股东的干扰，因为会减少那些说‘嘿’的人的空间。
It'll minimize the shareholder noise because it'll give less room to somebody that says, hey.
他凭空设定了一项估值。
He set a valuation out of thin air.
不过我打赌，这些事情最终都会合并。
Well, But dollars to donuts, these things are going to merge.
这体现了当前正在发生的单一性。
And it speaks to the singularity that's going on right now.
你知道，你曾经有一家汽车公司，还有一家太空公司。
You know, you had a car company, you had a space company.
好吧。
Okay.
那这两个东西是怎么重叠的呢？
That was a pretty how do those two things overlap?
还有AI、太空中的数据中心，芯片从哪里来？
And it's like AI, data centers in space, where do you get chips from?
然后实际上，原材料进入一个工厂，成品从另一端出来，这一点我和埃隆讨论过很多次。
And then actually going to raw materials inside of one factory, going out the other, and having discussed it with Elon many times.
他在特斯拉或SpaceX学到的关于先进材料的知识，影响了不同公司不同产品的开发。
What he learned, you know, at Tesla or SpaceX about advanced materials informed different products at the different companies.
而现在，所有这些都将集中在一个地方。
And now you just you'll have all of that in one place.
然后你想想他在特斯拉、SpaceX、隧道公司和Neuralink这些公司所组建的顶尖人才团队。
And then you think about the brain trust that he built at those two companies, plus Boring Company, plus Neuralink.
如果他们都聚在一起，这种跨学科的学习将会不断叠加、叠加、再叠加。
If they're all in there, all this cross disciplinary learning is gonna compound and compound and compound.
埃隆对工厂的了解可能比任何人都多。
Elon knows more about factories than probably
任何人。
Anybody.
任何人。
Anybody.
比如，中国有一些人，你知道，富士康对工厂非常了解。
Like, there's some people in China who have you know, Foxconn knows a lot about factories.
你知道的吧？
You know?
确实有一些人对某些方面的了解不亚于甚至可能更多一些，但把这两个团队结合起来正是真正的优势。
So there are some people who know as much or or probably even a little bit more about some aspects of it, but that's a true advantage of bringing those two teams together.
你已经看到了。
And you saw it.
人们会从一家公司跳到另一家公司。
People would go from one company to the other.
弗里德伯格，以你作为NASA代表的身份，结合你今天的背景，二十年前他就开始尝试用SpaceX进入太空，而如今我们做到了。
Friedberg, my question for you very acutely with your NASA hat and, you know, your your background today is twenty years ago, he he started trying to get to space with SpaceX, and here we go.
现在一个月内发射的火箭数量，比这个月的天数还要多，他每隔两三天就发射一次火箭。
There's more rockets going off in a month now than there are days in the month for the for the entire country, and he's got rockets going up every two or three days.
你几乎可以随时搭乘SpaceX的飞行器进入太空。
You can just basically hop on a SpaceX flight and get to space.
也许你可以用你的远见告诉观众，如果SpaceX继续保持这种节奏，甚至因为人工智能而加快步伐，二十年后会是什么样子。
Maybe you could just use your vision there to tell the audience what could things look like in another twenty years if SpaceX continues at this cadence or even, you you know, goes faster because of AI.
这周对这一点来说是个重要的里程碑，因为我们昨天刚刚发射了阿尔忒弥斯二号，这是人类重返月球。
Well, this week's a pretty important milestone for that point because we just launched Artemis two yesterday, which is man's returning to the moon.
美国这次发射了这枚火箭，搭载了四名宇航员。
So The United States shipped this rocket with four astronauts on board.
他们将先绕地球轨道飞行，然后前往月球，绕行后再返回地球，为大约两年后登月做准备。
They're gonna do an orbit around the Earth, head to the moon, come back around, and come back to Earth in anticipation of landing on the moon in about two years.
我认为，抵达月球非常重要，不仅因为现在中国和美国之间正展开一场重要的社会性竞争和竞赛，而且月球可能将成为人类下一个工业前沿。
And getting to the moon, I think, is gonna be very important not just because there's this important social milestone and race happening on right now with China, but I think the moon could end up being kind of the next industrial frontier for humanity.
原因是，如果你能到达月球，月球上有着极其丰富的资源，我们可以开采、加工并制造成各种产品，而最终把这些产品运回地球的成本是零。
And the reason is if you can get to the moon, the moon has an extraordinary abundance of material that we can mine, process, and manufacture into goods, and ultimately, the cost to ship those goods back to the earth is zero.
将月球上制造、加工或提炼的金属等货物运送到地球上的特定地点，成本将低于任何其他陆地传统运输方式。
It will cost less to move goods, manufactured goods, processed, or precious metals from the moon to a specific point on earth.
无论是轮船、飞机还是铁路，任何其他陆地运输方式的成本都会高于从月球运输。
It will cost less to do that than to ship it using any other terrestrial conventional method, whether that's a boat, an airplane, or a railroad.
原因是月球上的重力很低。
And the reason is that on the moon, you can take advantage of the low gravity.
月球重力约为地球的六分之一，且完全没有大气层，这意味着在月球上运输物质几乎没有摩擦，所需的能量也非常低，无需像在地球上那样使用高能量的火箭推进剂。
It's about one sixth the gravity and the complete lack of an atmosphere, meaning that it's frictionless to move material off of the moon and very low energy to move it off of the moon, you do not need to use a rocket propellant with high energy like we have to do to move things off of the Earth.
事实上，运输月球物质的设计是使用一种称为电磁轨道炮的装置，它就像一条轨道，一种电磁轨道。
In fact, the design for moving material off of the moon is to use what's called a mass driver, which is like a a train track, like a rail, like an electric rail.
你可能在高速列车上见过这种利用磁悬浮原理的系统，你可以把一个包裹放在轨道上，用电能将其加速到100倍重力，然后将其发射回地球，或者理论上发射到火星，它会精确抵达地球上的目标地点，再以简单的降落伞进入大气层并着陆。
You kinda seen these in, you know, high speed trains that work on kind of magnetic levitation, and you could put a package on that rail and use electricity to accelerate that package to a 100 g force, shoot it back to the Earth or theoretically shoot it to Mars, and it will go to the exact point on the Earth you want it to go to, reenters the atmosphere, and lands with a simple parachute where you want it to go.
因此，我们可以在月球上以远低于地球成本的方式持续进行采矿和制造。
So we could run continuous mining, continuous manufacturing processes on the moon at a fraction of the cost of what it would take to do it here on Earth.
目前最大的限制因素是将人类送往月球，但这一问题将主要通过机器人技术在未来几年内得到解决。
The biggest limiting factor, getting people to the moon, and that is largely solved or will be solved in the next few years by robotics.
我认为，机器人技术的发展与太空工业化、向月球迁移的这一时刻存在着非常深刻的交汇点。
So I think that there's this pretty profound intersection with what's going on in robotics with this moment for space industrialization and moving to the moon.
所以，你知道，特斯拉，我认为二十年后，它的故事其实更有趣，无论它是否仍是同一家独立公司。
So, you know, Tesla, I think twenty years from now is actually a more interesting story, whether they're the same independent company or the same company.
我认为有一天我们会回过头来看，忍不住笑出声，原来特斯拉最初是一家电动汽车公司。
I think we're gonna look back one day and have this kind of laughing observation that Tesla started out as an electric car company.
完全正确。
100%.
最终它变成了一家自动驾驶汽车公司，而自动驾驶技术正是推动机器人革命的关键。
Ended up becoming an autonomous car company, and the autonomous competency is what led to the robotics revolution.
即使社会主义者禁止地球上的机器人，声称机器人抢走了所有工作，我们也可以把这些机器人运到月球上，让它们开始工作，为我们的文明、为人类开辟全新的制造前沿。
And the robotics revolution, even if the socialists ban robotics on earth and tell us no robots allowed, they're taking all the jobs, you could ship all those robots to the moon and they could get to work and create an entirely new manufacturing frontier for our civilization, for humanity.
这个前沿可以制造贵金属和其他商品，并将它们运回地球。
That frontier can manufacture precious metals and other goods and ship them back.
你甚至可以在月球上制造半导体。
You could manufacture semiconductors on the moon.
唯一缺失的就是机器人。
All that's missing is the robots.
因此，将机器人运送到月球，或在月球上建立让机器人自我建造的材料，是这一转型的第一阶段，也就是你所问的二十年后的情况。
So moving the robots to the moon or setting up the materials for robots to build themselves on the moon is kind of the first phase of this transition, you know, asking about twenty years from now.
接下来的阶段是将这一切逐步建立起来。
Then the next phase is building this all up.
所以，我的意思是，我认为这不仅仅会局限于SpaceX，但SpaceX正在证明自己能够像铁路一样发挥作用。
So, look, I mean, I think that this may not be that it certainly won't be limited to just SpaceX, but SpaceX is demonstrating its capacity at being effectively the railroads.
就像铁路在上一代人中对西部边疆所起的作用一样，SpaceX将对月球乃至最终对火星产生同样的影响，月球将带来空前的生产繁荣。
You know, what the railroads were to the West and to the frontier in the West, you know, in the last generation, SpaceX will be to the moon and ultimately to Mars, and there's gonna be an extraordinary abundance of production that's gonna come out of the moon.
顺便说一句，月球上什么都有。
The moon has everything, by the way.
我还想再提一点关于SpaceX的事。
And I'll say one more thing about SpaceX.
SpaceX还创建了一个互联网的备份系统，这将成为许多人进行估值分析时的重要部分。
SpaceX has also created, and this is gonna be a big part of the valuation analysis that many are doing, they've created a backup to the Internet.
你知道，互联网从根本上受限于网络中的所有节点以及这些节点之间的连接，而这种连接主要依赖铜线和光纤电缆。
You know, the Internet is fundamentally limited by all of the nodes on the network and the connectivity amongst all those nodes, and that connectivity is largely driven by copper and fiber optic cable.
在太空中，随着星链卫星数量的增加，以及在这些节点上部署能够输出数据的数据中心，SpaceX实际上已经构建了一个备用的互联网。
So in space, with the number of satellites going up with Starlink and to actually deploy data centers that can output data on those nodes on that network, SpaceX has largely built a backup Internet.
这个备用互联网可以与地球上的互联网共存，但它创造了一个地外通信网络，理论上让我们能够思考，嘿。
And that backup Internet can coincide with the Earth's Internet, but it creates this extraterrestrial communication network that gives us theoretically the ability to think about, hey.
如果政府崩溃，如果发生文明动荡等等，我认为这将成为一种 fundamentally 重要的基础设施，与现有网络并行存在。
If governments collapse, if there's civilizational upheaval, etcetera, etcetera, etcetera, this becomes, I think, a fundamentally kind of important technology infrastructure that's gonna exist in parallel.
因此，我对SpaceX的这两条不同发展路径及其与特斯拉的交汇点感到非常兴奋。
So I'm pretty excited about, like, these two separate paths for SpaceX and where they intersect with Tesla.
我觉得目前这一点非常深刻。
I think it's pretty profound at the moment.
是的。
Yeah.
降低每公斤进入太空的成本，对围绕这家公司的创业者们产生了不可低估的影响。
And it it can't be understated what lowering the cost per kilogram to get to space has done to entrepreneurs around the company.
现在有多个创业者正在从事小行星采矿，或者Varda公司在太空中进行实验。
There's multiple entrepreneurs who are now doing asteroid mining or Varda doing experimentation in space.
我和我的投资联合体一直在做一些后期阶段的项目，查马斯。
And I have a I've been doing some late stage stuff, Chamath, with my syndicate.
我们投资的一家有趣公司是Zipline，这是一家很棒的公司，但我们还投资了另一家叫VaaS Space的公司。
And one of the interesting companies we syndicated we we did Zipline, which is a great company, but we also did this company called VaaS, VaaS Space.
Jed是创始人。
Jed is the founder.
他创建了Ripple以及其他一些加密项目，并将大量资金——数亿美元——投入了这家名为VaaS Space的公司，他们正在设计一个空间站。
He he created Ripple and and and some other crypto projects, and he put a lot of his money, hundreds of millions of dollars into this company, VaaS Space, and they're designing a space station.
他们是怎么做到的？
How did they do it?
他们只是购买了SpaceX火箭的运载空间，并提前支付了费用。
Well, they just bought carriage on SpaceX rockets, and they paid in advance.
他们已经预订了发射位，现在正致力于一项重大创新，开发模块化空间站组件。
They have their slot, and now they're doing this massive innovation to make modular space station components.
这就是我想说的
Here's what I'll
他们的理念是，嘿。
And the thesis is, hey.
如果谷歌或亚马逊想要在太空中建立一个空间站呢？
What if Google or Amazon want to have a space station in space?
你知道，他们确实有可能想要这样的空间站。
You know, it's completely possible they may want that.
让我这么说吧。
Here's what I'll say.
我认为有时候运气好比能力好更重要。
I think sometimes it's better to be lucky than good.
有太多方式让很多人参与到SpaceX的事业中来。
There are all of these ways that so many people will end up with participation into SpaceX.
我认为我们都应该对埃隆表达极大的感谢。
I think we all owe Elon an enormous thanks.
我认为这将释放出一个我们完全无法想象的庞大经济体系。
I think that this is going to unleash just an unbelievably large economy of things that we have no idea about.
当我看到你刚刚展示的那段视频时，它让我意识到我们在太空中的能力还非常初级。
And when I see this thing, that video that you just showed, what it reminds me is that we have a very rudimentary capability in space.
那意味着什么？
What does that mean?
如果你搭乘猎鹰九号或猎鹰重型火箭，基本上会被送到大约550公里的高度，我想。
If you take if you catch a ride on Falcon nine or Falcon Heavy, basically, it's dropping you off at 550 kilometers, I think.
如果你打算去地球同步轨道，就会面临不同的问题。
You have a different problem if you're trying to get to geo.
但即使你被送到500或550公里处，你又该如何进入自己的实际轨道面呢？
But even if you get dropped off at 500 or five fifty, how do you get to your actual orbital plane?
对吧？
Right?
也就是说，如果你把埃隆看作是从中国运货到美国的巨型集装箱船，一旦船抵达长滩，你就需要联邦快递了。
So meaning, if you think of Elon as, like, the big container ships that go from China to America, once it gets to Long Beach, you need FedEx.
那里将建立起一整套基础设施，来完成这最后一公里的物流。
There's an entire infrastructure there that's gonna get all of this logistics built last mile.
正在积累起一个巨大的太空垃圾清理问题。
There's a huge garbage collection problem that's getting built up.
我们还没有从技术上解决太空中垃圾收集的问题。
We still haven't technically solved how to do garbage collection in space.
有网状装置。
There's nets.
有磁性板。
There's magnetic plates.
所有这些问题都在得到解决。
All of that is getting fixed.
接下来将出现实际发电能力的爆炸式增长。
Then there's gonna be an explosion in actual power generation.
太空中太阳能电池的细胞结构在材料上截然不同。
The cell composition of solar cells up in space are materially different.
这真是令人惊叹。
It's a really incredible thing.
你看看这些薄薄的片状物。
You look at these thin sheets.
它们只有大约一毫米厚。
They are, like, one millimeter thick.
如果你用手拿着它，玻璃就会碎。
You if you carried it on your hand, the glass breaks.
但当它被铺设并层压后，即使被陨石撞击也毫发无损。
Yet you can smash a meteor into it when it's laid and laminated, and nothing happens.
我的意思是，在地球经济的每一个维度上，现在都将被重新在太空中构建。
It's like the it's like so my point is in every single dimension of what the earthly economy looks like, it's now gonna go and get rebuilt in space.
太空中会出现一家联邦快递。
There'll be a FedEx of space.
太空中会出现一家马士基。
There'll be a Maersk of space.
我不知道垃圾收集公司叫什么名字。
There'll be a I don't know what the garbage collection companies are.
太空联合废物公司。
Allied waste of space.
美国现存的所有产业，未来都会在太空领域出现完整的对应版本。
There's gonna be everything of space that exists in The United States.
弗里德伯格刚才还提到了太空领域的自由港麦克莫兰公司，就是说所有行业都会有太空版的。
Friedberg just talked about the Freeport Macron of space, like, everything.
这一切都要归功于他。
And that we owe to him.
对。
Yeah.
我希望他能得到这份认可，因为我认为依托SpaceX能够创立的企业数量，以及能在此基础上创造的价值都将是极其庞大的。
And I hope he gets that credit because the amount of businesses I think that can get created and the amount of value that will be created on top of SpaceX's shoulders is vast.
这一切才刚刚起步，它会为聪明机敏、足智多谋的人们创造海量的机遇。
It's the beginning of the beginning of the beginning, and it's gonna create enormous opportunities for people who are smart and resourceful.
弗里德伯格，或许你可以谈谈小行星上的铂族金属，也就是钯的情况？这些矿物在地球上十分稀有。
And, Friedberg, maybe you could comment on the PGMs, the palladium that's on asteroids, and just they're rare here on Earth.
如果我们能拥有无限供应或是持续稳定的这类矿产资源，你觉得会产生哪些下游影响呢？
If we had an unlimited supply or a continuous supply of those minerals, you know, what what could the downstream effect of that be?
那如果我们发现了一些在太空中我们未知的东西呢？
And then what if we find things in space that we are unaware of?
还有我们不知道的未知事物。
There are unknown unknowns.
没错，弗里德伯格，当你开始构想这一点时？
Correct, Friedberg, when you start to conceptualize this?
我觉得，比如说，
I do think, like,
小行星采矿是个有趣的构想，但我认为我们更可能需要建立基础设施来生产矿石、提炼等，而不是把大块岩石运回来。
the asteroid mining is an interesting concept, but I do think it's gonna be more likely that we'll have the need for infrastructure so we can produce ores and refine and so on versus, you know, bringing chunky rock back.
我觉得在月球上做这件事会非常有效。
I think that you could do this very effectively on the moon.
月球上缺失而地球上拥有的主要元素是碳、氮、氢和氧，这些基本上是构成地球生命的东西，但这是因为它们主要以气态存在，而地球有足够的引力保留这些气体并形成大气层。
The primary elements that are missing from the moon that we have on the Earth are, you know, carbon, nitrogen, hydrogen, and oxygen, basically these things that make life on Earth, but that's because they primarily exist in a gaseous form, and the Earth has enough gravity to retain those gases and have an atmosphere.
月球太小，无法维持大气层。
The moon is too small to maintain an atmosphere.
重力太小了，所以这些气体都飘散了。
The gravity is too little, so those gases all kind of went away.
它们在地球和月球形成初期就蒸发消失了。
They evaporated away in the early formation of the Earth and the moon.
但在月球上，其他所有元素都有。
But on the moon, there's everything else.
有铝。
There's aluminum.
有硅。
There's silicon.
有钯。
There's palladium.
有铂。
There's platinum.
有金。
There's gold.
这里拥有你所需的一切。
There's everything you possibly need.
所以我认为，当我们对这一切进行计算后，最终会意识到月球可能是最好的前沿。
So I think as we do the calculus on all of this, we'll end up realizing that the moon is probably the best frontier.
最大的问题之一是散热，因为你没有大气层。
One of the biggest issues is dissipating heat because you don't have an atmosphere.
但理论上，你可以回收这些热量，利用氦气之类的东西驱动涡轮，从而产生更多的电力。
But, theoretically, you could recapture that heat and use, like, helium gas or something to turn a turbine and actually run production of even more electricity.
你只需要在外部放置几块太阳能板。
You just put a couple solar panels out.
我做过这方面的计算。
I did the math on this.
只需500平方米的太阳能板，就能驱动一个四公里长的电磁弹射器，每十到十五分钟向地球运送一次物资。
It's like 500 square meters of solar panels will let you run a four kilometer mass driver to ship material back to the Earth every ten to fifteen minutes.
每十到十五分钟运送一吨物资。
One ton of material every ten to fifteen minutes.
你之前提到的那辆雪橇，埃隆也谈过。
On the sled you described earlier that Elon's been talking about as well.
是的。
Yeah.
你可以设想在月球上部署自主采矿车辆，对矿石进行加工，然后将完全加工后的材料送回地球。
So you could think about having autonomous mining vehicles deployed on the moon, processing the ore, and then sending completely processed material back.
而为了重返地球时的热盾，你只需使用月球岩石。
And then for a heat shield for reentry to the Earth, you just use moon rock.
只需要在包裹前端放置约15厘米厚的月球岩石，当它再入大气层时，岩石会烧蚀，而包裹则会像降落伞一样缓缓降落，最终精准着陆在你的工业船坞或其他目标地点。
You only need about 15 centimeters of moon rock at the front of the package, and then that'll burn up when it reenters the atmosphere and the package, you know, kinda parachutes down and lands where you want it to land in your industrial shipyard or whatever.
所以，我认为我们会持续不断地迭代这个想法。
So there's just like you know, I think we'll we'll continue to kinda iterate on this.
我在从各种角度进行推测。
I'm speculating in bunch of different ways.
这只是开端的开端。
The beginning of the beginning.
天啊。
Gosh.
我的意思是，你能想象在美国建立一个月球基地吗？
I mean, can you imagine having a moon base in America?
就像，是的。
Like like yeah.
好吧，想象一下，
Well, imagine,
杰克永久驻留在月球上，还有月球上的工厂，
Jake permanently present on the moon is just and factories on the moon
这简直难以想象。
is just wild to conceive.
能
Can
你们能想象一下，比如19世纪中期或18世纪末、19世纪初的美国，那时西部有大片土地吗？
you guys just imagine, like, the middle or the early nineteenth century, like, the late seventeen hundreds, early eighteen hundreds in America, and there's, like, all this land out on the West?
当时人们还在思考如何利用西部那片土地，他们开始向西迁徙，如果看到一百年后、甚至现在一百五十年后发生的一切，他们的世界观一定会被彻底颠覆。
And, like, whatever people were contemplating in that moment about what they were gonna go do with that land on the West and they started to travel west, their minds would have been blown to see what happened a hundred years later or now a hundred and fifty years later.
你知道吗？
You know?
我们现在就处在这个关键时刻，铁路正在铺设，为我们通往下一个伟大边疆铺路。
Like, it's just that's the moment that we're at right now, and the railroads are being built to get us to this next great frontier.
这些道路正在我们面前展开，而机遇的边界，仅仅受限于我们的想象力。
They're being laid out before us, and the opportunity is really limited only by our imagination.
过去，我们永远无法征服这些伟大的边疆，但一种神奇的新技术出现了——机器人。
And before, we would have never been able to tackle these great frontiers, but this magical new technology came about called robots.
这些机器人将让我们真正利用这些边疆，探索并开发它们。
And these robots are are going to allow us to actually make use of these frontiers and explore them and develop them.
这就是为什么，自主技术、机器人与太空探索的交汇，正如此非凡地推动人类进入这个新时代。
And that's why this is such an incredible moment where this intersection of autonomy and robotics and space traversal kind of drive forward humanity into this new era.
而且这again，这并不是一场零和游戏。
And it's again, this is not a zero sum game.
这正在拓展人类的潜力，提升生产力，这与地球上社会主义者所谈论的方式截然不同，他们认为每个人都在抵制进步，零和游戏。
This is expanding humanity's potential, expanding production, which is so different than the way the socialists on Earth are talking about it where everyone's fighting against progress Zero
零和游戏。
sum game.
因为他们认为进步就是一些人从其他人那里夺取东西。
Because they think that progress is some people taking things from other people.
而事实是，进步在于每个人都创造新事物，每个人都从中受益。
And the truth is it's about everyone building stuff that's new and everyone benefiting from this.
我要在这片太空开一家酒店和赌场。
I'm gonna open a hotel casino in this space.
我会去的。
I would go.
那太荒谬了。
That would be so silly.
认真的。
Serious.
是的
Yeah.
绝对如此
Absolutely.
你觉得好笑，但我可是认真的
You think it's funny, but I am.
我太想实现了
I would love that.
谁要是能在太空中建立红灯区，谁就能成为万亿富翁
Whoever implements the red light district in space is gonna become a trillionaire.
哦，天哪
Oh, wow.
那确实是
That's yeah.
有了机器人和愉悦型仿生人
With the robotics and the pleasure droids, replicants.
哦，天哪。
Oh, man.
事情可能会变得疯狂。
It could get crazy.
好吧。
Alright.
嗯，我们只希望在去那里的路上别变成唐纳大队。
Well, let's just hope you're we're not the Donner party on the way there.
2026年。
2026.
别担心。
Don't worry.
你会安全地落在地面上的。
You'll be you'll be safely on the ground.
施洛普辛辛那提辛迪加。
Schlopping syndicates.
你会我将
You'll be I'll
告诉你，谢谢。
tell you Thank you.
向 syndicate.com 致意。
Shout out to syndicate.com.
申请加入我。
Apply to join me.
在希腊公司里。
In Greek companies.
听好了。
Listen.
我喜欢我们都在工作的事实。
I like the fact that we're all working.
我们一直工作到五十多岁。
We're working into our fifties.
我太喜欢了。
I love it.
嘿。
Hey.
2026年可能会成为有史以来IPO数量最多的一年。
2026 could be an all time record for IPOs.
看起来确实会这样。
Looks like it will be.
Anthropic、OpenAI、Databricks。
Anthropic, OpenAI, Databricks.
我的意思是，这些公司可能在九月上市，估值都达到十亿美元级别。
I mean, these are all September possibly 10 IPOs in terms of the valuations.
还有其他一大批公司，比如Stripe、Cerebras、Canva、Discord，很多人都在等着。
Long tail of other companies, Stripe, Cerebras, Canva, Discord, lots of people waiting.
这是你的Polymarket。
Here's your Polymarket.
SpaceX，94%，显而易见。
SpaceX, 94%, obviously.
这看起来我们刚刚聊了二十分钟。
That looks like it's we just talked about that for twenty minutes.
Anthropic，41%，但二月份人们还说能达到70%。
Anthropic, 41%, and and people were saying 70% in February.
OpenAI，38%。
OpenAI, 38%.
Databricks，32%。
Databricks, 32%.
人们在想知道什么可能阻碍这一切。
People are wondering what could derail this.
显然，华盛顿特区有一群非常支持商业的人，但你可能会面临伊朗战争，我们稍后会在节目中讨论，如果——愿上帝保佑——局势升级或出现经济衰退，可能会让我们倒退。
Obviously, we we we have a very pro business group of people in Washington DC, but you have potentially this Iran war, and we'll talk about that later in the program, could potentially push us back if, God forbid, it was to spiral or there was a recession.
也许民主党掌控了国会、参议院等等。
Maybe the Democrats, you know, taking control of congress, senate, etcetera.
你对这波潜在的IPO潮有什么看法？
What what are your thoughts here on the flurry of potential IPOs?
我们谈论的是数万亿美元规模的公司，查马斯。
We're talking about trillions of dollars of companies, Chamath.
如果真的发生，让我们开始讨论这种分配链条可能带来的第二层和第三层影响，比如对有限合伙人的影响，还有这些员工，以及这些公司的货币体系似乎正从‘七巨头’扩展到‘十七巨头’。
And if that does happen, let's start talking second and third order impact of of that kind of distribution chain that could happen for LPs, and then just also all these employees, you know, and then a currency for these companies will go from a mag seven to a mag 17, it looks like.
我认为我们面临一些风险问题，这也正是埃隆应该率先退出的原因。
I think that we have a bit of a risk problem, and I think this is why it makes so much sense for Elon to get out first.
如果你把投资人的胃口比作感恩节聚餐时的人，当你刚进来，看到满桌美食时，食物多得让人眼花缭乱。
If you think about appetite as equivalent to, like, a person at a Thanksgiving dinner, when you first come in and you see all of this stuff, it's so plentiful.
你的眼睛大过你的胃。
Your eyes are bigger than your stomach.
在这样的时刻，你希望自己是第一个被满足的。
And I think in a moment like that, you wanna be the one that is consumed first.
而当你排在最后时，风险会增加，因为担心用餐者会没地方了。
And I think the risk increases when you are at the tail end because the risk is that the diners will run out of space.
如果你用这个
If you use that
比喻的话。
analogy up.
是的。
Yeah.
如果你用这个比喻，我认为人们盘子会装满的原因可能有两到三个。
And if you use that analogy, I think the reason why people's plates will get full are probably twofold and maybe threefold.
第一也是最重要的一点是，存在足够的战术性事件风险，人们普遍倾向于规避风险，寻求更大的安全边际。
The first and most important thing is there's enough tactical event risk that people generally wanna be risk off and have more margin of safety.
我认为伊朗问题也包含在内，但更大的战术性事件风险是，我们有许多重要的金融时刻都与AGI、ASI这一概念紧密相关。
I think the Iran thing is kind of in there, but I think the big tactical event risk is that we have a lot of these really important financial moments tied to this concept of AGI, ASI.
我不知道你有没有看到OpenAI关于最终条款的公告，但你知道，亚马逊的大量资本都押注在2028年的IPO或相关事件上。
I don't know if you saw the OpenAI announcement on their final terms, but, you know, a huge slug of Amazon's capital is tied to a 2028 IPO or a moment that calls for this.
然后还有一些泄露的短信之类的，说Anthropic内部已经运行着某个版本的AGI。
Then there was a bunch of leaked text messages or whatever that said that there's a version of some AGI running inside of Anthropic.
还有，你知道，克劳德代码的泄露表明，他们实际上屏蔽了一大堆改进功能。
Then there was the fact that, you know, the leak of Claude code basically demonstrated that they had feature flagged away a bunch of improvements.
所以，如果你把这些改进全部叠加起来，它们实际上比人们意识到的要领先得多。
So if you stack up all these improvements, they're actually much further ahead than the models realize.
如果你把这些都看作一个整体，那就回到了我上周所说的话：我们确实面临一个真正的定价问题。
If you take all of that as a basket, it goes back to what I said last week, which is we have a real pricing problem.
如果AGI是真实的，那么大多数公司的持久性都微乎其微。
If AGI is real, the durability of most companies is slim to none.
如果AGI不是真实的，那么这些如今正在筹集数百亿美元的公司的融资能力就需要被仔细质疑和审查。
If AGI is not real, then the fundraising capacity of these companies that are now raising hundreds of billions of dollars needs to get questioned and inspected thoroughly.
历史会揭晓哪个才是正确的，但两者不可能同时为真。
History will sort out which one is right, but both cannot be right.
因此，在这个背景下，我认为，杰伊，我们不会看到那种所谓的重磅IPO接连不断的情况。
So in that vein, I actually think, Jay Cal, I don't think we're gonna have, like, these quote unquote blockbuster stream of IPOs.
我认为真正会发生的是，SpaceX会率先上市。
I think what happens is SpaceX is gonna get out.
他们会表现得很出色。
They're gonna do great.
然后下一个可能从不错进步到优秀，再下一个表现不错，但需求的胃口最终会耗尽，因为你根本无法吸收数万亿美元的新增需求。
And then maybe the next one does good to great, then the next one will do good, and then the appetite runs out because you just can't absorb incrementally trillions of dollars of new demand.
如果你仔细想想，这些资金会从哪里来呢？
And if you think about it, where is it gonna come from?
会来自旁观者吗？
Is it gonna come from the sidelines?
我不知道。
I don't know.
我认为这更像是一次资源重新配置。
I think it's more of a reallocation exercise.
但如果你看看标普指数，现在大多数人正从这类资产撤出，转向行业所说的‘光环’类更安全的资产。
But if you look at the S and P, well, most people are now defensively moving away from these kinds of things towards the things that are more protected, what the industry calls halo.
对吧？
Right?
高资产、低过时风险的企业。
High asset, low obsolescence kind of businesses.
这些企业如今估值为零，杰森。
Those things trade for zero today, Jason.
你现在在股票市场上，只需两到五倍的估值，就能买到每年数亿美元的现金流。
You could buy hundreds of millions of dollars a year of cash flow for two to five times right now in the stock market.
那么，你为什么要冒这么大的风险，去买入估值高达营收200倍、更别提盈利200倍的公司呢？
And so why are you gonna go way out on the risk curve and buy something at 200 times revs, let alone earnings?
是的。
Yeah.
所以我不确定。
The the So I don't know.
我更倾向于认为，率先行动是明智的。
I'm I'm more in the camp of I think it's good to be first.
位居第二也相当不错。
It's pretty decent to be second.
展开剩余字幕（还有 480 条）
但如果你是我，我会赶紧退出私有状态，上市套现，尽快加固你的资产负债表，因为我认为你在IPO链条上越往后，风险就越大。
But if I were you, I would get the heck out and get public and get your money and fortify your balance sheet ASAP because I think the risk builds the further down the IPO chain you're in.
是的。
Yeah.
投资者的资金将面临竞争，无论是散户、机构投资者还是主权财富基金。
There's gonna be a competition for investor dollars, whether it's retail or it's institutional or sovereign wealth funds.
他们在这里将有非常多的选择。
They're gonna have a lot of choices here.
你想投资英伟达吗？
Do you wanna be in NVIDIA?
你想投资SpaceX吗？
Do you wanna be in SpaceX?
也许你必须从亚马逊、谷歌或迪士尼撤资，才能抓住这些机会，而这将是一场激烈的竞争。
Maybe you have to rotate out of Amazon or Google or Disney in order to take on those opportunities, and that's gonna be a a great competition.
很可能，我们将会看到许多这些IPO公司，比如弗里德伯格，在上市后一两年内交易价格低于发行价并被重新定价。
Probably, we could see a lot of these IPOs, friedberg, trade below their IPO price in the year or two after they come out and get repriced.
是吗？
Yeah?
就像我们以前见过的那样。
Like we've seen before.
我认为市场需要
I think the market's gonna need
找到一个价格。
to find a price.
请记住，许多这些公司的股东已经持有这些股份很长时间了，估值非常高。
Remember that the shareowners in a lot of these companies have held on to these shares for a long period of time, and the valuations are extraordinary.
我的意思是，有数千亿美元的市场价值首次进入市场并变得可交易。
I mean, hundreds of billions of dollars in market value coming to market liquid for the first time.
这些投资者中，无论他们的买入价是多少，都将寻求流动性。
Some of these investors, regardless of whatever their entry price was, are gonna be looking for liquidity.
因此，买方能够吸收这些股份的资本是有限的。
So there's only so much capital to absorb those shares on the buy side.
这意味着，如果买家和买盘不足以承接所有抛售，股价就会下跌，市场将找到一个平衡价格。
Meaning, if the buyers and the bid is not there to fulfill all of the selling, then you're gonna see the share price decline, and the market's gonna find a price.
因此，我认为那种认为IPO只是推动公司股价或价值上升的一步的想法是一种错误的认知，我认为随着这些IPO的进行，我们会意识到这种认知非常错误，因为存在大量积压的抛售需求。
And so I I think this idea that, like, an IPO is, you know, just a step in driving the price or value of a company up is a pretty false sense, and and I think we'll realize it's pretty false as some of these IPOs take place because there is so much pent up selling demand.
已经创造了巨大的价值。
There is so much value that's been created.
将出现巨大的抛售压力，而其中一些公司的买入活动却非常有限，因为任何原本能在上市后大规模买入的买家，其实早已在这些公司私有阶段就持有股份了。
There's gonna be so much selling pressure, and then there's gonna be very little buying activity on some of these because anyone that could have bought at scale on the buy side post public were already in a lot of these companies pre public as private companies.
所以我不知道大家预期的那些大买家究竟会是谁。
And so I don't know who the big buyers are that everyone's expecting are to show up.
他们可能以为会是散户投资者。
They're probably thinking it's gonna be retail.
散户。
Retail.
是的。
Yeah.
我的意思是，确实如此。
I mean, it's like Yeah.
但散户还有多少资金可用？
But how much money does retail have left?
我的意思是，如果你看看散户投资者，他们的资金是有限的，而且很可能已经全部投入了。
I mean, you if you look at retail investors, they have a certain amount of powder, and it's probably deployed.
他们并没有无限多的地方可以寻找投资机会。
It's not like they have unlimited places to look for that.
而且，这其实有一些证据支持。
And, you know, there's some evidence of this.
彭博社在周三发表了一篇文章。
Bloomberg ran an article on Wednesday.
我们周四更新，朋友们，你们周五就能收听播客了。
We tip on Thursday, folks, and you get to listen to the pod on Fridays.
OpenAI 正在失去二级买家的青睐。
OpenAI is falling out of favor with secondary buyers.
根据一份报告，OpenAI的投资者无法在钱查此前提到的8500亿美元估值下找到买家。
According to a report, OpenAI investors can't find buyers at the new $850,000,000,000 valuation that Chamath referenced earlier.
彭博社采访的投资者正试图出售价值6亿美元的股份。
Investors Bloomberg spoke to are looking to sell $600,000,000 worth of shares.
人们正在寻求流动性，并表示他们是机构投资者。
People are looking for liquidity and said they were institutional investors.
Anthropic目前估值为3000亿美元，但市场上出现了大量以6000亿美元估值进行的二级市场收购报价。
Anthropic, currently valued at 300,000,000,000, is seeing major secondary bids at a $600,000,000,000 valuation.
所以我认为，钱查，这表明你是对的。
So I think, Chamath, what this shows us is you're correct.
你知道，OpenAI和Anthropic是接下来的两张牌。
They're you know, OpenAI and Anthropic are the two next cards.
如果SpaceX是翻牌，那这就是你们在河牌圈的回合了，朋友们。
That's your turn in river, folks, if SpaceX is the flop.
也许它们现在被严重高估了。
And maybe they're massively overvalued right now.
也许它们是3040亿美元的公司，而不是万亿美元的公司。
Maybe they're $3.04, 500,000,000 billion dollar companies, not trillion dollar companies.
如果你看看收入数字，OpenAI在8520亿美元估值下，收入只有240亿美元。
And if you look at the amount of revenue, 24,000,000,000 for OpenAI at 852,000,000,000.
这相当于市销率35倍，如果增长能持续，这个市销率就太离谱了。
That's 35 times price to sales ratio, and that is a absurd price to sales ratio depending on if the growth keeps happening.
正如你提到的，查马斯，如果我们已经实现了通用人工智能（AGI），而这些公司的护城河微不足道，甚至根本没有护城河呢？
And as you referenced, Chamath, what if we are at artificial general intelligence, AGI, and the moats on these things is de minimis, or or there is no moat.
Anthropic刚刚被黑了。
Anthropic just got hacked.
它们的所有机密都泄露了。
All their secrets are out.
有人把代码翻译成另一种语言，上传到了GitHub上。
Somebody transmuted the code into another language, posted it on GitHub.
根本拦不住。
Can't be stopped.
我不知道你有没有看到这个新闻，弗里德伯格，但这简直让人震惊。
I don't know if you saw that story, Friedberg, but this was kinda mind blowing.
有人拿到了Anthropic的代码。
Somebody took the Anthropic code.
我不清楚它是用什么语言写的，然后直接转换成另一种语言，重新发布出去了。
I don't know what it was written in and then basically just put it into another language, reposted it.
如果Anthropic出来说：嘿。
If Anthropic comes and says, hey.
你们不能这么做。
You can't do that.
这恰恰否定了他们的论点，查马斯，他们声称有权使用他人的数据进行训练，然后输出不同的结果。
Well, that negates their argument, Chamath, that they're allowed to train on other people's data and then spit out a different output.
所以，现在是一个非常奇特的时刻。
So this is a very weird moment in time.
对吧？
Right?
确实是。
It is.
我觉得你提出了很多不同的观点，让我按我认为重要的顺序梳理一下。
I think you're you're bringing up a bunch of different points, so let me just sort them out in the order that I think is important.
OpenAI 值八千亿美金吗？
Is there a market for OpenAI at 800,000,000,000?
是的。
Yes.
而且应该值这个价。
And there should be.
当我读到那份新闻稿时，我惊呆了。
When I read that press release, my mind was blown.
我从未见过这样的企业。
This is a I've never seen a business like this.
我对 Anthropic 也有同样的看法。
And I'd say the same thing of Anthropic.
这两家公司都能取得这样的成就，真是不可思议。
What an incredible thing that both of these two companies have been able to create.
历史上从未有人见过如此规模的两家公司。
Nobody in the history of the world has ever seen two businesses like this at this scale.
明白吗？
Okay?
这简直难以置信。
It's unbelievable.
它们都是万亿级的公司。
These are trillion dollar companies.
它们俩都是，而且都配得上这样的估值。
They both are, and they both deserve to be.
它们的盈利能力如何？
How profitable they are?
我不知道。
I don't know.
它们的最终估值是多少？
What their terminal valuation is?
我不知道。
I don't know.
上市时人们愿意出多少钱？
What will people pay for at IPO?
我不知道。
I don't know.
但是，尼克，我刚刚跟你分享了一件事。
But, Nick, I just shared something with you.
这两家公司必须尽快上市。
These two companies need to get out as quickly as possible.
原因是，所有之后出现的公司——你刚才提到的那些公司，杰森——都不如这两家重要，也不像它们这样迫切需要资金。
And the reason is every single company that comes after it, all those companies that you just named, Jason, are not nearly as important and do not need the money nearly as badly as these guys do.
资金从哪里来？
And where will it come from?
当你看这张图表时，你问题的具体答案是，我认为科技板块的市盈率将比非科技板块的市盈率下降得更快。
The specific answer to your question when you look at this chart is the tech sector PE is going to shrink faster, in my opinion, than the nontech PE.
原因是，随着这些公司上市，SpaceX、OpenAI 和 Anthropic 这三家公司都在开发人工智能技术，而这种技术首要目标就是冲击科技行业。
And the reason is because as these companies come out, the combination of SpaceX OpenAI and Anthropic, all three are baking an AI technology that first and foremost will go after the tech sector.
它将消除、蚕食并侵蚀支撑这种估值差异的大部分护城河。
It will eliminate and it will cannibalize and it will erode most of the moats that support this differential trading.
所以，如果我要打赌，我的第一赌注是，当这三家公司上市后，这些软件企业将逐渐逼近其他非科技板块的市盈率。
So if I were a betting man, my first bet is as those three companies come out, these software businesses are going to approach the rest of the non tech PE.
明白吗？
Okay?
这是必须发生的第一个步骤。
That's the first step that has to happen.
因此，估值缩水的速度将向世界传达一个信号：嘿。
So the rate of change of of the multiple erosion will basically say to the world, hey.
这些科技公司，我不知道，我愿意为这个故事的前五六年买单，但我不会再为第十五年买单了，因为这三家公司会打造出一些东西。
These tech companies are, I don't know, I'll buy the first five or six years of this story, but I'm not buying year 15 of this anymore because these three guys are gonna build something.
所以资金就来自这里。
So that's where the money comes from.
这就是为什么我认为，在SpaceX之后，另外两家公司必须尽快行动起来，提交申请，尽快上市，筹到资金，巩固资产负债表。
That's why I think after SpaceX, these two guys need to get their act together, file quickly, get out, and just get the money, fortify their balance sheets, be in a position.
弗里德伯格，之后发生的一切都完全无法预测，因为一旦这三家公司上市，我认为蓝色线会与橙色线趋同，情况会变得很糟糕。
Friedberg Everything that happens after that is a total coin toss because once these three companies are public, I think the blue line will converge to the orange line, and it's gonna be nasty.
是的。
Yeah.
弗里德伯格，仅从这张图来看，你认为二级市场对OpenAI来说是个预警信号吗？
And, Friedberg, just looking at this, do you believe that secondary market is a canary in the coal mine here with OpenAI?
因为这些年我们一直都在经历这种情况。
Because if we we've and we've gone through this year after year here.
这些企业非常出色。
These are exceptional businesses.
它们的增长极其惊人。
They've grown incredible.
客户非常喜欢他们的产品，但烧钱速度太惊人了。
Customers love their products, but the burn is brutal.
这种循环融资的问题依然存在。
The circular financing problem is still out there.
那么，现实到底是什么样的呢？
Like, what's reality here?
当这些公司提交上市申请并成为上市公司、开始发布季度财报时，一切都会水落石出。
And that's gonna all come out when these s ones get filed and they're publicly traded companies and have quarterly earnings reports.
这些公司的市场份额可能会发生逆转，Anthropic 和 Gemini，以及其他新进入市场的玩家。
Market share for these could be flipping, Anthropic and and Gemini, other players coming into the market.
在 SpaceX IPO 之后，你对 Anthropic 和 OpenAI 有什么看法？
What are your thoughts here on Anthropic and OpenAI post the SpaceX IPO?
正如我所说，世界上可用的资本是有限的。
Like I said, there's only so much capital in the world.
所以我认为，目前人们可能低估了中东冲突将给资本密集型科技企业带来的流动性紧缩问题。
So I do think one of the things that's probably being underestimated at the moment is the liquidity crunch that's ahead for capital intensive technology businesses given the conflict in The Middle East.
我认为卡塔尔、某些沙特阿拉伯办公室以及阿联酋和阿曼的某些机构，不像以前那样热衷于提供大量资本来支持这些项目了。
I don't think that Qatar and certain Saudi offices and certain offices in UAE and Oman are as eager as they were or, you know, have been to provide large slugs of capital to support these initiatives.
别忘了，这些资本会通过市场流动，比如通过摩根大通向软银放贷，然后软银再把钱支付给OpenAI。
And remember, that capital moves its way through the markets, whether it's through JPMorgan and a loan to SoftBank, which then gets paid to OpenAI.
最终，这些系统必须从世界某个地方获得无负担、无债务的资本。
At the end of the day, there has to be unencumbered debt free capital that's being provided to these systems from somewhere in the world.
如果你追溯所有资金的来源，过去几年里，很大一部分资金确实来自中东的主权基金和家族办公室。
And if you trace all of it back, like a large chunk of it has historically in the last couple of years come from Middle East sovereigns and family offices.
我认为这些资金来源在近期很可能会收紧。
And I think that those are likely gonna tighten up in the near term.
如果是这样，需求可能会减少。
That being the case, there's probably less demand.
我认为，来自欧洲和新加坡等地家族办公室的二级需求正在增加，这些地方通常难以获得或无法早期接触私营公司。
I do think that there's a lot of secondary demand coming from family offices in Europe and Singapore, places like that that that generally have not had great access or early stage access to private companies.
但终究，那里的需求也是有限的。
But at some point, there's only so much demand there.
所以我不知道这种情况会持续多久，或者来自中东的资本紧缩何时会出现。
So I don't know, like, how far this is gonna go or when this capital crunch that's gonna emerge, I think, from The Middle East.
我认为我们还没有真正感受到正在发生的事情的冲击，因为请记住，许多中东资本承诺是在上一轮周期中作为有限合伙人承诺或其他形式做出的。
I don't think we've really felt the shock wave yet on what's happening because remember, a lot of these Middle East capital commitments were made in the last cycle as LP commitments or whatever.
如果他们停止或缩减有限合伙人承诺，或者停止进行一级和二级交易，市场感受到影响需要一些时间，然后那些可靠的资金来源就消失了。
And, you know, if they stop if they downscale LP commitments or they stop doing primary and secondary transactions, you know, it takes a little bit of time before the market feels that, and then it's like, the reliable go to are gone.
许多拥有中东有限合伙人的大型基金，那些庞大的基金，都已经不复存在了。
And a lot of the big funds, the the mega funds that are Totally.
突然之间，所有人都会惊呼：天哪。
Out there that have Middle East LPs are gone, and suddenly everyone's gonna be like, woah.
冲击波将会到来。
And the shock wave will hit.
我们走着瞧吧。
So let's see.
这对美国来说是一个风险，因为我认为中国不会面临同样的挑战。
It is a risk for The United States because China, I don't think, is gonna be as challenged.
我们对中东资本的依赖如此之大，但也许中国在进入下一阶段时实际上拥有资本优势。
We're so dependent on Middle East capital, but maybe that China has an a capital advantage actually going into this next phase.
我的意思是，我们之前讨论过不可抗力，我不确定。
I mean, and we talked about force majeure I don't know.
如果伊朗局势真的失控或恶化，不可抗力条款可能会被触发。
Come into play here if this Iran thing spirals, god forbid, out of control or gets worse.
人们可能会说，你知道吗？
People could say, you know what?
我们会减少我们的承诺，而且嘿，现在在打仗，所以我们没必要继续注资。
We're we're gonna downscale our commitments and, hey, there's a war, so we we don't have to fund this.
我认为市场已经消化了这一点，杰森。
Markets I think the markets have shaked that off, Jason.
我认为他们并不把伊朗这件事看得很严重。
I don't think that they they view this Iran thing as a big thing.
我认为市场最大的事件风险是，人工智能到底是真是假？
I think the big event risk in the market is, is AI real or not real?
如果它是真的，这些公司值多少钱？
And if it's real, what are all of these companies worth?
这才是悬在股市上方的巨大达摩克利斯之剑。
That is the big sordid Damocles over the stock market.
是的。
Yeah.
好吧。
Alright.
这倒是个不错的过渡，我想我们可以聊聊伊朗了。
Well, that's a good segue, I think, into talking a bit about Iran.
我们上星期暂停了这方面的讨论，现在要补上。
We took the week off from it last week, and we're gonna catch up
这里我们要澄清一下，我们本意并非如此，但大家的评论都指责我们，实际上杰森主持得实在太差了。
here this because we just to be clear, not because we intended to, which all the comments railed us on, but we literally Jason did a terrible job moderating.
他确实
He was
就在该讨论的议程上。
on the frigging docket.
我们本来应该谈这个的。
We were supposed to talk about it.
我们没来得及谈。
We didn't get to it.
随便应付了一下。
Dialed it in.
我们直接回家了。
We went right home.
他
He
应付了一下
dialed it
。
in.
这明显是我的错。
It's clearly my fault.
他去车管所处理了。
He DMV'd it.
他，你知道的，就像那样。
He you know, it's like Yeah.
我知道。
I know.
我在为特朗普辩护。
I'm protecting Trump.
我在这儿为他辩解，
I'm out here debating cover for
特朗普的错误。
Trump's mistakes.
是的。
Yeah.
是的。
Yeah.
人人都知道我受总统特朗普的操控。
Everybody knows I'm in the pocket of
特朗普总统。
president Trump.
一张票。
A ticket.
拿一张票。
Take a ticket.
哦，你有意见？
Oh, you have an issue?
好吧。
Okay.
那你就是第17号问题。
Well, you're issue number 17.
特朗普给我发了私信，说能不能
Trump DM'd me and said, can
请你把这个从议程上撤下来？
you please take this off the docket?
我当时说，没问题，老板。
I was like, you got it, boss.
然后你就说，哦，抱歉。
And then you're like, oh, sorry.
办公室关门了。
Office is closed.
明天再来吧。
Come back tomorrow.
今天是伊朗战争/军事行动的第34天。
Today is day 34 of the Iran war slash military operation.
特朗普周三晚上发表了简短的十八分钟全国讲话。
Trump addressed the nation Wednesday night for a brisk eighteen minutes.
这里有一个四十秒的片段。
Here's a forty second clip.
我们现在完全不再依赖中东，但我们仍在那里提供帮助。
We're now totally independent of the Middle East, and yet we are there to help.
我们本不必在那里。
We don't have to be there.
我们不需要他们的石油。
We don't need their oil.
他们拥有的任何东西我们都不需要，但我们在那里是为了帮助我们的盟友。
We don't need anything they have, but we're there to help our allies.
多年来，人人都说伊朗不能拥有核武器，但如果你在关键时刻不愿采取行动，这些话终究只是空谈。
For years, everyone has said that Iran cannot have nuclear weapons, but in the end, those are just words if you're not willing to take action when the time comes.
我们的目标非常简单明确。
Our objectives are very simple and clear.
我们正在系统性地摧毁该政权威胁美国或在其边境之外投射力量的能力。
We are systematically dismantling the regime's ability to threaten America or project power outside of their borders.
今晚，我很高兴地表示，这些核心战略目标即将完成。
And then tonight, I'm pleased to say that these core strategic objectives are nearing completion.
好的。
Alright.
这里的代价正在不断上升。
The costs here are mounting.
战争是非常严肃的事情。
War is a very serious business.
十三名美国军人不幸阵亡。
Thirteen American service members have tragically died.
超过两百人受伤。
Over two hundred have been injured.
在另一方，已有三千五百名伊朗人死亡，其中包括一千六百名平民和二百多名儿童。
On the other side of the ledger, thirty five hundred Iranians have died, including 1,600 civilians and over 200 children.
黎巴嫩有十二百人死于以色列的空袭，而我们现在已在中东部署了五万名士兵。
Twelve hundred people in Lebanon have died from Israeli strikes, and we now have 50,000 troops deployed to the Middle East.
地面入侵的可能性正在增加。
Chances of a ground invasion are increasing.
到目前为止，战争已花费了700亿美元。
War has cost $70,000,000,000 so far.
这假设每天花费20亿美元，而国防部似乎对此达成了共识。
That's assuming $2,000,000,000 a day, which there seems to be consensus on via the Department of War.
五角大楼已向国会申请另外2000亿美元。
Pentagon has asked Congress for another $200,000,000,000.
作为参考，乌克兰战争第一年的花费为1130亿美元。
To put that in context, the war in Ukraine was a $113,000,000,000 in the first year.
当我们达到50天时，这一数字可能会迅速超过它。
This could quickly exceed it when we hit fifty days.
这并不便宜。
This isn't cheap.
有很多成本。
There are lots of costs.
这是你关于停火的Polymarket预测。
Here's your Polymarket on a ceasefire.
四月前达成停火的概率是25%，五月前是47%。
25% chance of a ceasefire by the April, 47 chance by the May.
Sharps认为这场冲突可能即将结束，但我认为地面入侵将产生巨大影响。
The Sharps are thinking this could wrap up, but ground invasion, which would be just really impactful, I think.
四月前的概率是63%，十二月前是71%。
63% chance by the April, 71 chance by the December.
我们接下来要讨论次级影响，你觉得呢，查马斯？
We're gonna get into the second order effects, but what do you think, Chamath?
这显然是一场极其不受欢迎的战争。
This obviously is super unpopular war.
我认为有两点。
I think two things.
总统隐约提到了其中一点，我认为非常重要：如果你不实现能源独立，你就面临风险。
And the president kind of alluded to one that I think is very important, which is if you are not energy independent, you are at risk.
我不知道世界领导人还需要多少例子才能真正行动起来。
And I don't know how many more examples now that world leaders need to be shown to get their acts together.
如果俄乌冲突还没让欧洲醒悟，那这次应该能让欧洲乃至全世界都看清现实。
So if the Ukraine Russia conflict didn't show Europe, then this should show not just Europe, but the rest of the world.
你必须掌控自己的能源基础设施和能源独立，因为世界上总会发生各种事情，而你并不总能控制或左右这些事情如何间接或直接影响你。
You need to be in control of your own energy infrastructure and energy independence because stuff happens in the world, and you're not always in control or can shape how that stuff can indirectly or directly affect you.
美国已经实现了能源独立。
The United States has energy independence.
这是一种令人惊叹的状况。
It's an incredible situation.
让我感到有趣的是，如果你看看欧洲，他们削减了几个能源市场，实际上把控制权交给了昂贵的进口和中国。
What was interesting to me is if you look at Europe, you know, they gutted a couple of their energy markets, and they essentially ceded control to a combination of very expensive imports and China.
他们在核能等领域直接退出了。
They did that in markets like nuclear where they just went out of it.
在天然气等领域，他们也这么做了，虽然我们可以争论，但北溪二号最终怎么样了？
They did that in things like nat gas where, again, we can debate, but where where did Nord Stream two go?
我们不知道。
We don't know.
他们在太阳能方面也做了类似的事，直接取消了所有的补贴。
And they did that in things like solar where they just gutted all of the credits.
但有趣的是，他们正开始扭转这一局面。
But what's interesting is they're starting to turn that around.
我认为意大利刚刚重新引入了所谓的投资税收抵免政策。
I think Italy just reintroduced effectively what's called investment tax credits.
西班牙也刚刚采取了同样的措施。
Spain just did as well.
德国正在重启核电。
Germany is restarting nuclear.
所以，如果你只看最近几个月，这种转变极其重要，因为我们的最大盟友欧洲应该实现根本性的能源独立，以便像我们一样，在应对这些情况时保有完全的自主选择权。
So if you just look at the the last few months, just that change is incredibly important because our largest ally, Europe, should be fundamentally energy independent so that they preserve complete and total optionality like we do in how we respond to these situations.
我认为，这是当前局势带来的一项积极成果，这一点至关重要。
That, I think, I think is a is a critical thing that is a positive outcome of what's happening.
其次，杰森，我认为这是一个巨大的疑问，它建立在弗里德伯格之前所说的基础上：中东国家，特别是阿联酋、沙特、卡塔尔、科威特，将成为我们未来最重要的融资和银行合作伙伴。
And then the second, Jason, which I think is a huge question mark, and it builds on what friedberg said before, the Middle Eastern states, specifically The UAE and Saudi, Qatar, Kuwait, they are our most important financing and banking partner in the future.
我认为我们需要看到这场战争有一个明确的结束，因为这些国家需要能够实现这些关键资产的变现。
And I think we need to see a conclusive end to this war because they need to be in a position to monetize these critical assets.
因为与此同时，如果你看到这些巨大的需求池通过加速核能等方式开始实现能源独立，但我要再次强调，这问题重重且进展缓慢。
Because at the same time, if you see these big pools of demand start to become energy independent by either accelerating nuclear, but I again, that's just problematic and slow.
但坦率地说，他们只会大规模发展太阳能。
But, frankly, they're just gonna ramp up solar.
这是唯一能够快速调配能源的方式。
That's the only way that you can dispatch energy quickly.
我认为这将长期降低对碳氢化合物的需求。
I think what that does is it decreases hydrocarbon demand over the long run.
这进而削弱了这些国家的变现能力。
That then decreases the monetization capacity for these countries.
所以，如果你把这两点结合起来，该地区所有这些国家都希望获得安全与保障，他们现在迫切需要这场冲突尽快结束。
So if you put these two things together, all of these folks in the region want safety, security, and they need a quick end to this thing now.
好的。
Okay.
我认为，相比美国，他们更有动力派兵进驻地面，杰森。
And I think that they're more incentivized to put boots on the ground, Jason, than America is.
这正是我想表达的观点。
That's the point I was trying to make.
弗里德伯格，我们来聊聊化肥吧。
Friedberg, let's talk a little bit about fertilizer.
你之前提到过乌克兰战争刚开始的时候。
You had brought up when we had the start of the Ukraine war.
对。
Hey.
这里是粮仓。
This is the breadbasket.
我们可能会面临一场大饥荒。
We could have a massive famine.
幸运的是，这种情况被避免了。
Thankfully, that was avoided.
当时为将小麦和其他农作物运出乌克兰做了特殊安排，但如今，大量来自该地区的化肥又无法正常流通了。
There were carve outs for getting wheat and and other crops out of Ukraine, but here we are again with a significant amount of fertilizer comes out of that region, and it's not flowing right now.
这次你是否担心我们会再次看到类似的情况？
Do you have concerns this time around that we could see something similar?
化肥由三种元素组成。
Fertilizer is made up of three elements.
有不同类型的化肥。
There's different fertilizers.
其中一种元素是氮（N）、磷（P）和钾（K）。
The one element is n for nitrogen, p for phosphorus, and k for potassium.
乌克兰是钾（即钾肥）的最大生产国，但化肥中的氮元素才是占施用量约60%的主要成分。
Ukraine is the largest producer of the k, the potassium, the potash, but the n in fertilizer is nitrogen, and that is about 60% of what goes into the ground.
全球约60%至65%的化肥是氮肥。
That 60 to 65% of global fertilizer is the nitrogen.
这正是推动农业生产力的关键，我们需要氮肥来在全球各地种植作物，以大规模养活人类。
That's what really drives agricultural productivity, and we need nitrogen fertilizer to grow crops everywhere on earth that we're growing crops to feed people at scale.
这种氮肥主要在天然气生产和加工的地方制造，原因是天然气被用作生产过程的原料。
That nitrogen is primarily made where natural gas is produced and processed, And the reason is that they use the natural gas as an input to the production process.
他们获取碳、氢、氧，然后压缩空气——记住，我们大气中70%是氮气。
They get the the carbon, the hydrogen, the oxygen, and then they compress remember, 70 of our atmosphere is made up of nitrogen gas.
因此，他们将空气中的氮气压缩至大气压的200倍，通过通电的金属催化剂，将氮分子（N₂）分解。
So they compress the nitrogen in the air to 200 times atmospheric pressure, run it over a electrical current with a metal catalyst, and you break apart the n twos.
你得到的是单个的氮原子，然后再将它们重新组合，最终在另一端得到氨。
You have just single nitrogen atoms, and then you combine it back, and you end up getting ammonia out of the other end.
这就是为什么氮肥在天然气加工地生产的原因。
That's why nitrogen fertilizers are produced where natural gas is processed.
因此，中东地区，尤其是卡塔尔，是天然气的生产大国，这也是全球大部分氮肥产自中东的原因。
So The Middle East, obviously, is a massive producer, particularly in Qatar of natural gas, and that's why so much of the world's nitrogen fertilizer is made in The Middle East.
事实上，全球约35%的氮肥要经过霍尔木兹海峡，然后运往世界各地需要它来种植作物的国家。
In fact, about 35% of the world's nitrogen fertilizer goes through the Strait Of Hormuz, and it is then shipped to countries around the world that farm and that need it to grow their crops.
全球的灵活生产国是中国。
The swing producer in the world is China.
中国历史上生产了全球约15%的氮肥。
China historically makes about 15% of the world's nitrogen fertilizer.
战争爆发后几天，中国就停止了氮肥出口，实际上切断了全球其他地区的供应。
And when the war started, a few days after it began, China shut down exports of their nitrogen fertilizer, and so they basically choked out the rest of the world.
因此，当霍尔木兹海峡关闭时，氮肥的流动就停止了。
And so when the Strait Of Hormuz shut, the nitrogen stopped flowing.
在这里，你可以看到随之而来的价格飙升。
Here, you can see the price spike that happened.
所以，随着战争爆发，这是尿素。
So as the the war began, this is urea.
尿素是氮肥的固态形式。
Urea is the solid form of nitrogen fertilizer.
在冲突加剧之前，尿素的价格约为每吨350美元，之后价格持续飙升。
So urea was trading at about $350 a ton before the the conflict kind of took off, and it continues to spike up.
在过去两天里，价格已涨至每吨700美元以上。
It reached over $700 a ton in the last two days.
这真的、真的、真的影响巨大。
And this is really, really, really impactful.
这不仅仅是价格翻倍那么简单。
It's not just like, oh, the price is double.
首先，存在供应短缺。
Number one, there's a supply deficiency.
因此，非洲和南亚等地的农民无法获得种植所需的尿素。
So farmers in places like Africa and South Asia are not getting the urea that they need to farm.
这将引发一系列严重的问题。
That is going to have a massive follow on problem.
而在那些因价格飙升仍能获得尿素的市场，比如美国，我们最大的作物是玉米。
And in markets where they have access because the price has spiked, like in The United States, our biggest crop is corn.
种植玉米每英亩大约需要200磅尿素，而这一成本几乎让你无利可图。
You need about 200 pounds of that urea per acre for corn, and that cost basically makes you unprofitable.
你根本不可能种出盈利的玉米。
There is no way you can make a profitable crop of corn.
与此同时，中国还停止了购买玉米。
The other thing that China did at the same time is they stopped buying corn.
通常情况下，玉米价格会上涨，但如今玉米价格却保持低位，而美国农民的投入成本却飙升了。
So corn prices would normally spike up, and corn prices have remained low while the input prices have spiked for American farmers.
因此，美国农民陷入了真正的困境。
So American farmers are in a real pickle.
幸运的是，对于目前正在开展的春季播种，大约三分之二的美国农民在价格上涨前已经锁定了化肥，但仍有三分之一没有，他们通常改种大豆。
Fortunately, for this spring planting, which is happening right now, about two thirds of American farmers had already secured their fertilizer before the this began, but a third did not, and they're switching crops typically to soybeans.
但几个月后我们将迎来秋季播种，而生产瓶颈将使价格继续保持高位。
But we have a fall planting coming up in a couple of months here, and the choke points on production is gonna keep prices very high.
在美国，我们会在俄克拉荷马、德克萨斯、怀俄明等地的天然气设施中自行生产大量氨气，然后直接运送到农场。
In The United States, we make a lot of our own ammonia at our natural gas facilities in places like Oklahoma and Texas and Wyoming and other places, and then it ships directly to the farms.
但由于全球市场的影响，成本如此之高，农民将很难盈利。
But the cost is so high because of the global market that it's gonna become very hard for farmers to make a profit.
而在全球范围内，有数以百万计的农民现在无法获取这类肥料。
And around the world, there are many farmers, millions and millions of farmers that can't access this fertilizer now.
因此，霍尔木兹海峡的运输瓶颈正在引发一场极为严峻的全球粮食供应危机，这和乌克兰危机引发的情况如出一辙。
So the choke point in the Strait Of Hormuz is turning out to be a real critical global food supply crisis yet again similar to Ukraine.
别忘了，受乌克兰战争影响，全球有约4亿人已经陷入营养不良的状态。
And remember, there's about 400,000,000 people following the Ukraine war globally that we saw enter into a state of malnourishment.
这意味着这些人连续一整年每天只能摄入1200卡路里甚至更少的热量——乌克兰危机爆发后，已有4亿人落得这般境地。
This means more than one year of 1,200 calories or less per day for a year, 400,000,000 people after Ukraine.
因此，考虑到氮基肥料的重要性以及罢工的停摆，这场危机的后续影响可能会更加严峻。
So coming out of this crisis, it could be even more severe given the criticality of nitrogen based fertilizers and the shutdown of the strike.
关于这个问题，我再补充两点。
Let me make two more points on this.
你可能会想，好吧。
You would think, okay.
那我们多生产一些氮肥不就行了。
We'll make more nitrogen fertilizer.
这些设施一旦损坏，至少需要三到五年才能修复，而卡塔尔刚刚就发生了这种情况。
The facilities take at least three to five years to fix when they break, which is what just happened in Qatar.
这个设施受损了，也就是用于生产化肥的主要设施。
That facility got damaged, the the main facility that's being used to make fertilizer.
因此，世界上最大的尿素生产商现在将面临三到五年的瘫痪状态。
So that is the largest producer of urea in the world that's now gonna be incapacitated for three to five years.
如果你想新建一个设施，大约需要七年时间。
And if you wanna build a new facility, takes about seven years.
全球所有生产尿素和氨气——这些氮肥——的设施通常都是24小时、全年无休地满负荷运行。
All the facilities around the world that make urea and ammonia, these nitrogen fertilizers, typically run twenty four seven, three sixty five at full capacity.
世界上没有任何地方可以随时启动额外的产能。
There is no downtime where you can just turn on excess production in the world.
所以，你知道，世界在投入与粮食产出之间的平衡非常脆弱。
So, you know, the world is very delicate in its balance of inputs and food production outputs.
整个世界储存的粮食热量，仅仅不到三十天的量。
The whole world has, like, less than thirty days of food of calories stored up.
随着这些供应链问题逐渐显现，全球范围内开始感受到冲击波。
So as these kind of supply chain problems start to percolate, there's shock waves that start to get felt around the world.
因此，前方将迎来一场相当严重的危机，但要完全显现出来还需要几个月时间。
So it's a pretty serious crisis ahead, and it'll take a few months before it'll be fully realized.
与此同时，美国农民正遭受重创。
In the meantime, US farmers are getting their asses handed to them.
他们赚不到钱，而中国正利用这一时机对美国施加巨大压力，通过停止化肥出口并
They can't make money, and China is using this as a moment for extraordinary leverage over America and taking advantage of the situation by shutting down exports of their fertilizer and at
同时不再购买美国的玉米生产。
the same time not buying American production of corn.
我们可能需要弗里德伯格在这方面建立某种韧性，就像我们对药品、个人防护设备和其他物资所做的那样。
We probably need friedberg to have some sort of resiliency here and address this like we did with pharmaceuticals, PPE, all these other things.
是的。
Yeah.
我们应该建立某种化肥储备。
We should have some sort of stockpile of fertilizer.
查马斯的观点完全正确。
Chamath's point is absolutely correct.
全球各地都存在天然气储层，但我们一直不愿开发它们，因为担心气候变化和碳排放风险。
Natural gas reservoirs exist around the world, and we've been loath to exploit them or develop them because of the climate change carbon risks and issues.
但我认为，某种程度上，这些观念只是一种奢侈的信念。
But I think what we're realizing is that those are luxury beliefs to an extent.
只有在遭遇类似这样的冲击波时，人们才会意识到，不能一味拒绝开发碳资源。
You can only say, let's not exploit carbon resources until you hit a shock wave like this, and then people are like, wait a second.
我们确实需要让这些系统投入运行，并具备充足的冗余能力和本地生产能力，因为全球粮食供应的单一故障点已经行不通了，尤其是在世界日益碎片化、多极化，而美国对全球事务的干预越来越少的背景下。
We really do need to have these systems up and running, and we need to have excess capacity and local capacity in the system because single points of failure for the whole world's food supply is not gonna cut it anymore, particularly as the world is becoming more fragmented and multipolar and there's less US policing of the world that's gonna happen and so on.
每个人都必须开始认真考虑加倍投入，不仅是在能源生产上，还包括化肥等其他关键投入品。
It's gonna be very critical that everyone starts to think about doubling down, not just on energy production, but some of these other critical inputs like fertilizer.
另外，顺便提一下天然气生产的一个副产品：当你从地下开采天然气时，这也是我们获取氦气的主要来源。
And another output, just as a quick side story on nat gas production, is when you pull nat gas out of the ground, that's the primary place we find helium.
而氦气，我们才刚刚意识到，其实从来没人真正关注过它。
And helium, we're all waking up to the fact you know, we never really think about helium.
我们想到的是孩子们生日派对上的气球。
We think about kids' balloons at birthday parties.
但氦气被用于核磁共振成像设备。
But helium goes into MRI machines.
氦气被用于半导体制造。
Helium goes into semiconductor manufacturing.
氦气还被用于质谱仪，这些设备在世界各地的化学分析中有广泛应用。
Helium goes into mass spec machines that are used in chemical analysis with a lot of applications around the world.
氦气是医疗设备和制造设备的关键原料，突然间，全球三分之一的氦气来自卡塔尔，却无法运输出去。
Helium is a critical input to medical equipment, to manufacturing equipment, and all of a sudden, a third of the world's helium coming out of Qatar is not making it out.
因此，我们现在将面临一场影响全球的氦气供应冲击。
And so we're now gonna have a helium supply shock that's gonna affect the world.
所以我们开始意识到，也许那些我们一直视而不见的天然气田——让一个国家独占开采、生产所有天然气——这样的做法并不妥。
So we're starting to wake up to the fact that perhaps these nat gas fields that we've allowed to kinda turn a blind eye and say, let one country exploit them and let them make all the nat gas.
美国正在积极开发这些资源。
The US is actively developing.
你知道吗，几个月前我和道格·伯格姆一起去参观了路易斯安那州的切尼尔设施，那景象真是令人惊叹，那里是我们进行所有液化天然气出口的地方。
You know, I went down and visited that Cheniere facility in Louisiana with Doug Burgham a couple months ago, which was an amazing sight to see where we do all the LNG exporting.
但美国拥有极其丰富的天然气储量，世界上许多其他地方也是如此，却未能充分利用这些资源进行开发。
But The US has extraordinary nat gas reserves, so do many other places in the world that have failed to take advantage of developing them.
我认为我们现在正意识到此时此刻开发这些资源的至关重要性。
And I think we're realizing the criticality of doing so at this moment.
从这一点来看，我认为特朗普很快就会做出重大转向。
Looking at this, I think we'll have Trump pivot extremely soon.
我现在拿出了这张图表。
I brought this chart up now.
这将是他第四次预测失误。
This will be the fourth time he's blown
是这样吗，杰伊·卡尔？
it prediction, Jay Cal?
你觉得他会就此收手吗？
You think he's gonna wrap this up?
我的意思是
I mean
他百分之百会完成这个转变，我可以解释为什么。
He's a 100% gonna wrap this up, and I and I and I can show why.
我的意思是，你只要看看这个历史就行了。
I mean, this just basically look at the history of this.
你们还记得我之前提到过这张关于特朗普净支持率的图表吧？你们看看，自从我第一次在六月、然后十月提到它以来，情况发生了怎样的变化。
You guys remember I brought up this chart with Trump's net approval rating, and you you look at how this has changed over the three times I brought it up, first time in June, then October.
而且，我现在又要再提一次这个图表。
And, again, I'm gonna bring it up here.
关于移民局（ICE）的事情，还有 Epstein 文件，以及一连串不受欢迎的决策，特朗普的净支持率现在已经暴跌至-17%。
The stuff with ICE and, you know, the Epstein files and just going right down the line of unpopular decisions, Trump's net approval rating now has just plummeted to negative 17.
这是他有史以来最不受欢迎的时候，他必须做出调整了。
This is the least popular he's ever been, and he's had to pivot here.
在我们录制这段内容时，帕姆·邦迪——正如我之前一集预测的那样，克里斯汀·诺埃姆和帕姆·邦迪会被解雇，或者用特朗普的说法，他会给他们安排新工作，给个靠窗的座位。
Pam Bondi at the time we are recording this, as I predicted on a previous episode, then Christine Noem and Pam Bondi would be fired, or in, I guess, in Trump's terms, he likes to get them a new job and give them a window seat.
这绝对会引发一次迅速的转向。
This is absolutely going to result in a quick pivot.
谁知道后续影响会怎样，但根据Polymarket的数据，通胀三关口正在回归。
Who knows what the downstream effects are, but the inflation three handle is coming back according to Polymarket.
汽油价格已超过每加仑4美元。
Gas is over $4 a gallon.
然后，你知道，我们之前很容易嘲笑这些‘无国王’抗议活动，但有八百万人走上街头参与。
And then, you know, it's easy to mock like we did earlier these, like, no kings protests, but 8,000,000 people came out for that.
这是一个庞大的数字。
That's a large number.
如果你看看Polymarket对中期选举结果的预测，现在民主党赢得参议院的概率是51%，赢得众议院的概率是86%。
And if you look at the Polymarket for what's gonna happen in the midterms, 51% chance now that the Dems take the senate, 86% that they take the house.
而你从这一点能得出的结论是
And, you know, what you're gonna take from that is
等等。
Wait.
抱歉。
Sorry.
Polymarket 现在显示民主党赢得两院吗？
Polymarket is now showing the Democrats winning both houses?
是的。
Yeah.
打开看看。
Pull it up.
这种情况发生的可能性很大。
Significant chance of that.
而且，你知道，当这种情况发生时
And, you know, when this happens
有多少人押注在这个结果上？
How much money is being bet on that?
我们来看一下。
Let's just see.
51%，他们赢得参议院。
51%, they take the senate.
86%，他们赢得众议院，还有四百五十万。
86%, they take the house, and 4 and a half
有四百五十美元押在这个上面？
million There's 4 and a half dollars on this?
天哪。
Oh gosh.
是的。
Yeah.
而且
And
所以我通常根据总投注额来判断是否认真对待Polymarket，但这个数字不小。
so I tend to filter how seriously I take Polymarket just based on the total quantum, but this is a big number.
是的。
Yeah.
而且，你知道，听我说。
And and I you know, listen.
这并不是我想贬低特朗普或表达我的个人信念。
I this is not me trying to dunk on Trump and my personal beliefs.
当你失去了塔克、梅根·凯利、乔·罗根，人们就会关注特朗普身边都围绕着哪些人。
I think when you lose Tucker, when you lose Megan Kelly, when you lose Joe Rogan, you know, and people are looking at who Trump surrounded him with.
实际上只有两类人。
There's really just two groups.
你有这些非常资深的人，比如贝松、穆特尼克，还有大卫·萨克斯。
You have these super highly qualified people, Besson, Mutnick, obviously, DavidSacks.
你还有像JD这样非常优秀的人，我非常敬重他。
You got you got really highly qualified people, JD, you know, who who I think the world of.
我觉得这些人很棒。
I think these people are great.
但他任命了一些我觉得能力不足的人，比如帕姆·邦迪和克里斯蒂。
But then he put some people in positions that I think weren't up to the task, Pam Bondi, Christie.
我也把史蒂文·米勒和卡什算在内。
I'll put Steven Miller and Cash in that as well.
在这种情况下，这是我的个人看法。
It's my personal belief in that case.
这些人并没有很好地辅佐他，他们必须让总统任期重回正轨，因为接下来我们只会面临两年的弹劾和调查，整个局面都会被嘲笑。
And those people have not served him well, And they need to get this presidency back on track because what's gonna happen is we're gonna have two more years of impeachments and investigations, and the whole thing's gonna be derided.
我们真的需要开始思考是谁在做出这些决策。
And we really need to start thinking about what who's making these decisions.
是谁决定对伊朗采取行动的？为什么？
Who who made this decision to go into Iran and why?
是谁决定让移民与海关执法局进入明尼苏达州的？为什么？
Who made these decisions to have ICE go into Minnesota and why?
我认为很多问题都归结于史蒂芬·米勒。
And I think a lot of it goes back to Stephen Miller.
我在这档播客里因为把责任归咎于他而被嘲笑了一番。
I got mocked a bit here on the pod for, like, blaming him.
但你可以将斯蒂芬·米勒、克里斯蒂·诺尔曼、卡什·帕特尔和帕姆·邦迪与总统任期的种种负面表现和支持率暴跌联系起来。
But you can correlate Stephen Miller, Christy Noem, Cash Patel, and Pam Bondi with all of the downside of this presidency and the plummeting ratings.
特朗普需要大换血。
Trump's gonna need to clear house.
他已经清除了四人中的两人。
He's cleared out two of four.
我预测他会清掉另外两人，引入优秀的领导层，扭转总统任期的局势，因为听好了，现在这就要变成社会主义了，AOC会赢的。
I predict he'll clear out the other two and get great leadership in there and turn this presidency around because, listen, this is gonna be socialism now, and AOC's gonna win.
如果他不尽快从伊朗撤出，这将引发巨大混乱。
This is gonna cause massive chaos if he doesn't get out of Iran and do it soon.
这只是我对局势的判断。
Just my handicapping of the situation.
海格塞斯，我不太确定。
Hegseth, I'm not so sure.
我还不太确定自己对他到底怎么看，但你知道，我们并不清楚特朗普这么做的原因。
I'm not sure if I you know, what I think of him yet, but, you know, we don't have information on why Trump did this.
这将是下一个要发生的事。
That's gonna be the next shoe to drop.
关于他为什么这么做？
On why why he did it?
弗里德伯格，我
Friedberg, I
我认为，正如我在这场战争或军事行动一发生时就指出的那样，让我们直呼其名吧。
think, you know, this is the point I made the second this war happened or a military operation I mean, let's let's call it what it is.
这是一场战争。
This is a war.
当你杀死前100名关键人物时，这就是一场战争。
When you kill the top 100 people, it's a war.
我说过，我不知道他这么做的原因。
I said, I don't have the information of why he did this.
他可能掌握着我们没有的信息，这些信息让他觉得我们必须这么做，但我们尚未公开这些信息。
Like, he might have information, friedberg, that we don't have that made this an absolute must for us to do, but we haven't revealed that information.
这并没有向美国人民很好地解释清楚。
It hasn't explained it well to the American people.
我觉得这就是为什么收视率如此，我不想把收视率说得像电视收视率那样。
Think that's why the ratings are you know, and I don't wanna make the ratings like a TV ratings.
他的声望在这里正被严重打击。
I his popularity is getting crushed here.
这种行动向美国人解释的方式，再说一遍，我并没有在这里表达自己的立场。
The way this was explained to Americans, and, again, I'm not inserting my position here.
我只是在谈目前的脱节：午夜锤行动本应彻底摧毁这一切。
I'm just talking about the disconnect right now, is that operation midnight hammer was supposed to have just decimated this.
那我们为什么又要做这件事呢？
So why did we do this again?
而我们并没有掌握这些信息。
And we don't have the information.
这就是为什么我努力保持谦逊，说：特朗普掌握了哪些我们不知道的信息？
This is why I try to stay humble in this and say, like, what information does Trump have of that we don't have?
有些人似乎认为，查马斯，这是过度自信。
Some people seem to think, Chamath, this was overconfidence.
显然，这里存在一场争论。
There's obviously this debate.
我们是不是被以色列引诱并推入了这场行动？
Did we get baited into this by Israel and get pushed into it?
他是不是一个‘曼哈顿候选人’之类的？
And is he a Manchurian candidate, etcetera?
这超出了我的能力范围。
I that's above my pay grade too.
我对这些一无所知。
I I don't have any information on that.
我并不
I'm not
是中央情报局的人。
in the CIA.
对于这种事情，作为旁观者批评确实很难，从两个层面来说都是如此。
It's hard to be an armchair critic on this stuff in both senses.
我觉得很难说，嘿。
Like, I think it's hard to say, hey.
这个人是被说服去做的这件事。
This guy got talked into doing this.
以色列操纵了他，让他卷入其中。
Israel manipulated him into it.
对不起，我知道。
You know, sorry.
这样说很容易。
It's easy to say that.
说这样的话也很容易，嘿。
It's also easy to say, hey.
我们应该去消灭那个制造了所有核武器的国家。
We should go get rid of the country that's made all the nuclear weapons.
这两种说法都说起来很容易，却忽略了人际关系、细节以及真正发生的事情的复杂性。
Both of those are easy to say without all of the texture of the relationships and the details and what really went on.
我们谁都不知道真相。
None of us know is
真相。
the truth.
这正是关键所在。
That's literally the point.
你知道，我一直试图保持好奇，是的。
You know, I've been trying to make curious, like Yeah.
委内瑞拉的情况也是一样。
How do and it's the same thing with Venezuela.
我们怎么知道我们没有任何情报可以参考呢？
Like, how do we know we don't have any intelligence to map.
我们又不是中央情报局的人。
We we're not in the CIA.
我们没有摩萨德或以色列情报机构所拥有的这些洞察力。
We don't have any of these insights that Mossad or the Israeli intelligence services have.
我们怎么知道事情会如何发展？
How do we know how this was gonna go down?
我认为，当这一切被调查时，所有这些都会浮出水面。
And, you know, that's all gonna come out, I think, when this all gets investigated.
是的。
Yeah.
我认为特朗普是现代历史上最一贯反对战争的总统。
I think Trump is and has been the most consistent antiwar president of modern history.
对。
Yes.
我认为可以说，他一直以来都表现出极大的克制，并且对是否卷入冲突设定了迄今为止最高的标准。
And I think that it's fair to say that he has and has had and has demonstrated enormous restraint and has the highest bar thus far of folks for actually getting into conflict.
所以我认为弗里德里希所说的内容非常重要。
So I do think that what Friedrich says is very important.
我们有太多不知道的事情，我认为他不希望自己的遗产被卷入一场典型的美国式冲突所玷污。
There's just so much we don't know, And I think that he doesn't want to stain his legacy with a typical American, you know, conflict.
战争。
War.
是的。
Yeah.
他不希望那样。
He doesn't want that.
我觉得他根本不需要靠近那种情况。
I don't think he doesn't need to be anywhere near that.
所以显然，还有很多我们不知道的事情。
So there is obviously stuff that we don't know.
我仍然认为，短期内存在一个问题，这不仅仅是伊朗对以色列的威胁，还有伊朗对整个中东地区的威胁。
I still think that there's a short term problem, which is not just the threat that Iran poses to Israel, but there's a threat that Iran poses to the rest of the Middle Eastern community.
那个地区是个复杂的地方。
That neighborhood is a complicated place.
穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼曾在沙特电视台接受过一次采访。
There was an interview that MBS did on Saudi television.
尼克，也许你能找到这段视频。
Nick, maybe maybe you can find it.
虽然是阿拉伯语的，但我看过一个带字幕的优质版本。
It's in Arabic, but there's a good version of it that I saw with subtitles.
当你听到穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼描述伊朗的威胁时，其说法与以色列人对这一威胁的描述并无太大不同。
And if you hear the MBS is telling of what the Iranian threat is, it's not dissimilar to how the Israelis would characterize the threat.
因此，我认为重要的是要明白，不可预测的行动者不应被赋予拥有能够彻底毁灭我们所知世界的毁灭性武器的机会。
And so I think it's important to understand that unpredictable actors should not be given an opportunity to have a cataclysmic weapon that can just completely destroy the Earth as we know it.
这完全说不通。
That just doesn't make sense.
我认为，如果我们能干预以阻止这种情况发生，如今我们已经充分意识到其可能造成的破坏，因此从今往后，应当推动足够程度的核裁军。
And I think if you can intervene to prevent that, we're now aware of the damages of what this can do to enough of a degree where there should be enough of nuclear disarmament from here on out.
目前拥有核武器的六七个、八九个国家，好吧。
The six, seven, eight, nine countries that have it, okay.
在过去七十年里，我们本有无数理由可以重新做出那些决定。
There's all kinds of reasons why maybe we could have remade those decisions over the intervening seventy years.
也许有些国家我们根本就不该让它们拥有这种武器。
Maybe there's some that we never should have let have it.
巴基斯坦和印度的情况就是一个很好的例子。
The Pakistan India thing is a good example of one.
但我们现在只能面对现实，我认为我们都同意，不应再有更多国家逐步获得这种武器。
But we are where we are, and I think we can all agree no more countries should incrementally get access to this thing.
绝对不行。
Absolutely not.
而且这个政权特别认为，所有不属于这一特定宗教的人都是该死的，而且整个
And this regime specifically believes that anybody who is not part of this specific religion needs to die and the whole
嗯，那
Well, that
伊斯兰教需要重新统一，才能对付任何不属于它的群体
of Islam needs to be reunited in order to take on anybody who's not part of
嗯，我从不觉得
Well, I I never think
极端伊斯兰教。
of radical Islam.
如果这个国家的宗教狂热是这样，我认为所有不皈依的人都该被杀掉。
Like, it's a it's a if this is a religious lunacy in that country, I think everybody else should be murdered if they don't convert.
我认为重要的是要指出，绝大多数逊尼派和绝大多数什叶派都是和平、虔诚的人。
I think it's important to say that the overwhelming majority of Sunnis and the overwhelming majority of Shias are peaceful, observant people.
每种宗教都有极端分子。
There are fringes in every religion.
特别是针对这种情况，我认为最重要的是不要轻信你自己的话，也不要轻信别人的话。
And in specifically this, I think the most important thing is to not take your word or anybody else's word.
我认为倾听像MBS这样的人很重要，因为这关乎你必须在那个地区治理国家的切身经历和其中的意义。
I do think it's important to listen to somebody like MBS because I think it's the lived experience of, you know, having to run a country in that neighborhood and what it means.
正如你所描述的，你看到的是许多层复杂性，而我认为我们西方大多数人对此完全缺乏理解。
And I think what you see is, as you as you're articulating, many layers of complexity that, again, I think that most of us in the West have zero appreciation for.
所有这些都表明，短期内他们把自己逼入了绝境。
All of this goes to, in the short term, I think that they forced themselves into a corner.
我认为我们可以回头再重新审视一下。
I think we can go back and relitigate.
为什么奥巴马放了他？
Why did Obama let him out?
那真是个极其愚蠢的主意。
That was a really, really stupid idea.
我们本该更积极地施压，让他们濒临经济破产的边缘。
We probably should have kept our thumb on the scale and had them close to teetering on economic insolvency.
这一直是制约他们的唯一因素。
That's the only thing that has kept them in check.
一旦我们放开了之前达成的裁军协议，他们就立刻彻底失控了。
They veered wildly away the minute we let them out of the disarmament agreements that we had.
但我们已经身处当前的境地了。
But we are where we are.
我们必须把释放出来的 genie 再关回瓶子里，不能指望其他国家，也不能容忍它们也想制造那种能彻底毁灭我们所知地球的武器。
We gotta put the genie back in the bottle, and we cannot look to other countries and tolerate this idea that they also want to build the kinds of weapons that can literally destroy the face of the planet as we know it.
这是根本不可能的。
It's a nonstarter.
其次，我们要如何遏制那些参与制造混乱的人，如何构建一个更合理的国际秩序？
And then the second order effect is how do we make sure that folks that are participating in all of this broader seeds of sowing chaos, how do we hem them in, and how do we create a more reasonable world order?
我认为，这些次级影响——我以前也说过——最终还是会回到中国的问题上。
And I think that the second order effects, and I've said this before, kind of bring this back to China.
我认为，一个由美国和中国作为世界两大主导力量的两极世界，可能是这里的纳什均衡。
And I think a world where it's bipolar, where it's The United States and China roughly as the two leading statesmen of the world is probably the Nash equilibrium here.
所以，我认为要让中国处于必须达成协议的位置，记住，我之前说过这一点。
And so I think getting China in a position where they need to do a deal and remember I said this.
对中国来说，最糟糕的事情就是总统推迟了峰会。
The worst thing that could happen for China was the president delaying the summit.
而我们现在就处在这个境地。
And here we are.
我们现在推迟了六周。
We're now it's delayed for six weeks.
它将进入年中。
It's gonna go into mid bay.
如果你觉得台湾海峡相关的能源价格在欧洲或其他地方已经够疯狂了，那就看看中国现在正在发生什么。
If you think the Strait Of Formuz numbers as it relates to energy prices in Europe or anywhere else are crazy, look at what's happening inside of China right now.
这可不是什么好事。
It is a no bueno situation.
所以在五月，如果我们能重新建立一套保持常态的运作准则，遏制这种到处快速无序扩张的局面——中国正试图在我们附近建立基地，而我们现在也必须在他们附近表明立场。
And so in May, if we can reestablish a set of operating criteria that keeps normalcy in check, No more of this rapid random expansion everywhere where the Chinese are trying to build bases near us and, you know, now we have to have a point of view near them.
我们不需要这些。
We don't need any of that.
所以我认为，如果我们能利用这个机会降低紧张局势，我们应该这么做。
So I think if we can use this as an opportunity to deescalate, I think we should.
好的。
Yeah.
关于 Bayt 播客
Bayt 提供中文+原文双语音频和字幕，帮助你打破语言障碍，轻松听懂全球优质播客。