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我不确定你们中是否有人知道我曾是某些公司的天使投资人。
I don't know if some of you knew I was an angel investor in some companies.
我数到三，你们知道我有史以来最钟爱的天使投资是什么吗？
On the count of three, what's my favorite angel investment of all time?
一、二、三。
One, two, three.
优步。
Uber.
谢谢。
Thank you.
给大家掌声，特拉维斯·卡兰尼克。
Give it up, Travis Kalanick.
感谢你。
Appreciate you.
好了。
Alright.
哇。
Wow.
在这样一个重大新闻日，Travis 来了，真是个大日子。
On a big news day, Travis is here on a very big news day.
你花了——哇，我猜大概七年时间都在实验室里埋头苦干。
You spent, wow, I guess like seven years just in the lab building.
去年，每年我都会问你：嘿，你愿意来女性峰会吗？
Last year, every year I ask you, hey, you want to come to the women's summit?
你不想来，他说：不了，就像
You want to he said nah, it's like
有成千上万的员工被禁止在领英上标注公司名称。
Thousands of employees that weren't allowed to put the company name on LinkedIn.
我的天，太不可思议了。
I mean, incredible.
我就想，好吧。
And I'm like, okay.
他们的父母以为他们在为中央情报局工作。
And Their parents thought they worked for the CIA.
是的。
Yeah.
然后他说，顺便说一下，杰·卡尔，你可以投资，但不能公开，而且你必须签署保密协议。
And then he's like, and by the way, Jay Cal, you can invest, You can't announce it, and you have to sign an NDA.
你不能透露自己是投资者。
You can't mention you're an investor.
就像，好吧。
It's like, okay.
没问题。
No problem.
我只是很高兴能出现在资本结构表上。
I'm just happy to be on the cap table.
他是不是在悄悄说一些不该说的事情？
Is he like kinda like secret saying what he wasn't supposed to say?
是的。
Yeah.
对。
Right.
不。
No.
现在他全都在做那个。
Now he's all And now he's doing that.
那刚刚发生了。
That just happened.
是的。
Yes.
嗯，你可以
Well, you can
但不行。
But no.
你现在出局了。
You're out now.
它。
It.
我们走吧。
Let's go.
你出局了。
You're out.
它出局了。
It's out.
你今天从隐身状态出来了。
You're you came out of stealth today.
这太好笑了。
It's so funny.
好吧。
Okay.
这太棒了。
It's so great.
你从隐身状态现身了。
You came out of stealth.
嗯，你已经
Well, you've
你稍微谈了一点。
you've talked a little bit.
你出现了
You came
到所有
to All
去年在峰会上是这样吗？
In Summit last Is that fair?
你说你今天要从隐身状态现身？
You say you're coming out of stealth today?
是这样吗？
Is that right?
好吧，你看。
Well, look.
让我们先从这对我们员工意味着什么说起，因为想象一下，如果你在一家数千人的公司，每个员工的领英资料都设为隐身状态，包括销售人员。
Let let's just start with what that meant for our employees because again, imagine if you're at a multi thousand person company and every single employee has stealth on their LinkedIn, including salespeople.
明白吗？
Okay?
包括招聘人员。
Including recruiters.
他们简直是在地狱模式下生活。
Like, it was they they were they were living life on hard mode.
这有点儿
It was kind of
也很有趣。
fun too.
对吧？
Right?
我的意思是，是的。
I mean I mean, yeah.
还挺酷的。
It was like Kinda cool.
这到底是什么？
What the what's
这是什么？
what is this?
为什么有这么多隐身状态的初创公司人员在洛杉矶？
Why are there, why is this massive density of stealth Right.
洛杉矶的初创公司人员为什么这么多？
Startup people in Los Angeles?
那里到底发生了什么？
What is happening over there?
是的。
Yeah.
是的。
Yeah.
此外，从技术上讲，该公司在不同国家的名字都是非常通用的公司名称。
Also, technically, the name of the company in different countries was very generic names of companies.
我的意思是，一切都设计成隐蔽的。
I mean, everything was designed to be stealth.
对。
Right.
所以我们运营于30个国家。
So we operate in 30 countries.
在美国，这个厨房产品被称为Cloud Kitchens。
In The US, the kitchens product is known as Cloud Kitchens.
在韩国，它叫Kitchen Valley。
In Korea, it's Kitchen Valley.
在中东，它叫Namah。
In The Middle East, it's Namah.
在拉丁美洲，部分拉丁美洲地区，它叫Casino Sequeltas。
In Latin America, parts of Latin America, it's Casino Sequeltas.
我的意思是，你明白我的意思。
I mean, you get the idea.
你甚至都记不住所有名字和所有代号。
You can't even remember all the names and all the code I
我得想一想。
have to think about it.
是的。
Yeah.
你需要
You have
好好想一想。
to think it through.
但是
But
今天
today
我们
We
在中国有四个。
have four in China.
你知道，到处都是。
You know, it's like all over the place.
是的。
Yeah.
但事情进展得非常顺利，而且你们一直有点热衷于收购。
But things have gone really well, and you've been a little acquisitive.
所以给我们讲讲你们今天宣布的品牌，以及一些收购和公司的发展历程吧。
So tell us about the branding today that you're announcing, and then maybe some of the acquisitions and evolution of the company.
你不仅仅是租用厨房空间。
You're not just renting kitchen space.
那些了解我在优步时期思维方式的人，对这些事情并不会感到惊讶。
Those who, I mean, know how I thought about things in the Uber day, a lot of this stuff's not surprising.
我经常谈到将物理世界数字化。
I I would often talk about digitizing the physical world.
我想我甚至在峰会上也这么说过。
I think I even did it all at Summit.
简单来说，我们会了解比特世界、计算机世界，也就是迈克尔·戴尔本质上为我们创造的这个世界。
The quick version of this, I'll try to do it quickly, but it's like, we know the bits world, the computer world, the one that Michael Dell essentially invented for us.
CPU、存储、网络，这些是你第一天上计算机科学课时学到的三大核心计算资源。
CPU storage network, these are three core computing resources when you go to computer science class your first day.
三大核心计算机资源。
Three core computer resources.
CPU处理比特，存储保存比特，网络将比特从A点传送到B点。
CPU manipulates the bits, storage stores the bits, network moves bits from point a to point b.
但如果你在数字化物理世界，你就是在把原子当作比特来处理。
But if you're digitizing the physical world, you're treating atoms like bits.
你是在构建一个基于原子的计算机，我会解释我的意思，这听起来有点超前。
You're building an atoms based computer and I'll explain what I mean to say, know this is a little out there.
CPU处理比特，那它处理原子吗？
CPU manipulates bits, manipulates atoms?
制造。
Manufacturing.
存储存储比特，那什么存储原子？
Storage stores bits, what stores atoms?
房地产。
Real estate.
网络将比特从A点传到B点，那什么运输原子？
Network moves bits from point a to point b, what moves atoms?
那就是运输或物流。
That's transportation or logistics.
所以你在这台基于原子的计算机中拥有了这三大核心计算资源。
So you have these three core computing resources in an atoms based computer.
我公司的名字非常晦涩，而且故意设计得无聊至极，叫作City Storage Systems。
The name of my company was very obtuse and purposely designed to be as boring as hell, was called City Storage Systems.
所以这就是基于原子的计算机中的数字化房地产，我们的第一台计算机是一台食物计算机。
So that's digitized real estate in an atoms based computer, our first computer being a food computer.
那意味着什么？
What does that mean?
为食物提供制造、房地产和物流服务。
Manufacturing, real estate and logistics for food.
于是你开始理解这个理念：使命是为更好的食物构建基础设施，核心问题是，你能否让一顿餐食的准备和配送效率高到接近去超市购物的成本？
And so you start to get there and the idea that the mission was infrastructure for better food, the idea was can you get a meal that's prepared and delivered to you so efficient that it starts to approach the the cost of going to the grocery store.
如果你能做到这一点，你就对厨房做了Uber对汽车所做的事情。
If you can do that, you do to the kitchen what Uber did to the car.
但在Uber的时代，道路已经存在，汽车也处于闲置状态，你只需要在应用商店上架一个App即可。
But in the Uber day, the roads were there, the cars are unused, you just had to put an app in the app store.
没那么容易，但也没那么难。
It wasn't that easy, but kind of that easy.
在这个世界里，你不能靠餐厅做到这一点。
In this world, you can't do this on a restaurant.
餐厅不会有——我离开Uber时，旧金山所有行驶里程中有13%是Uber的里程。
Restaurant doesn't have When I left Uber, 13% of all San Francisco miles were Uber miles.
你不可能靠这个实现，那是九年前的事了。
You can't get and that was ten years, nine years ago.
你不可能靠餐厅来实现这一点。
You can't get there on food, on restaurants.
它们的利用率只有大约20%。
They have like 20% capacity.
Uber Eats和DoorDash填补了这部分需求，但实现高容量、大规模工业生产的基础设施根本不存在，物流体系也不具备，根本行不通。
Uber Eats and DoorDash fill it, but the infrastructure to do high capacity, high scale sort of industrial production is just not there, and the logistics is just not there, it just doesn't work.
所以，在电商领域，你得通过亚马逊那些巨大的仓库和高效的物流体系，当食品走向电商时，你也必须这么做。
That's why on e commerce you go through Amazon big ass warehouses with awesome logistics, you've got to do the same thing when food goes to e commerce.
那可真不少。
That was a lot.
是的。
Yeah.
好吧。
Okay.
所以总的来说，这太棒了。
So bottom line is it's awesome.
我们做的是食物计算相关的工作。
We do this food computation stuff.
我们现在在做更多的计算机相关的事。
We're doing more computers now.
所以这家公司的名字叫Adams。
And so the name of the company is called Adams.
它的使命是通过物理自动化来变革产业、推动世界进步。
And it's let's say the mission is is physical automation to transform industries and move the world.
所以我们有我提到的食品计算机，同时我们也在做采矿。
And so we have our food computer I talked about, then we do we're doing mining.
采矿是指开采矿物吗？
Mining as in mining minerals.
数据挖掘。
Data mining.
我们在谈论原子，伙计们。
We're talking about atoms, guys.
是的。
Yeah.
所以，当然，你也会做一些数据挖掘，但重点是实体采矿，也就是矿山的自动化。
So, well, of course, you do some mining data mine too, but the point is is physical mining, so automation of mines.
那里的使命是让矿山更高效，为地球的工业提供动力。
And the mission there is more productive mines to power Earth's industries.
对吧？
Right?
所以它有一种工业原子的氛围。
So it's got this industrial atoms vibe to it.
在运输方面，它是为机器人设计的轮式底盘。
And then on the transport side, it's wheelbase for robots.
因为如果你在研发专用机器人，
Because if you're doing specialized robots,
不是
not
人形机器人，而是专用机器人，你就需要能够在物理世界中移动和行动。
humanoids, specialized robots, you need to be able to move and act in the physical world.
但只要你开始移动，就必须有轮式底盘。
But the minute you're moving, you gotta have a wheelbase.
所以这只是整个方程式的一部分。
So it's just part of the equation.
很多人会去看特斯拉，这很棒。
And a lot of people go look at Tesla, it's great.
看看Waymo，太棒了，他们在奥斯汀悠闲地行驶，但还有许多其他在移动的东西。
Look at look at Waymo, awesome, they're cruising around Austin of course, But there's so many things that move.
这不仅仅是网约车服务。
It's not just a ride sharing thing.
当然还包括正在运作的采矿设备。
And so obviously including mining equipment that's doing its thing.
所以你们知道，这大致就是我们的思路，我们收购了一家做采矿设备的公司，叫Pronto。
So you guys that's the general sort of idea and we acquired a company on the mining stuff, a company called Pronto.
或者说是即将完成收购。
Or it's about to close.
我们离完成只差一步之遥，没错。
It's we're we're inches from closing is the Right.
这么说很到位。
Way to put it.
他们具体是做什么的？
What were they doing?
他们的业务是什么？
What was their business,
Pronto？
Pronto?
自动化采矿设备。
Automating mining equipment.
他们总部在哪里？
Were they based?
他们总部在旧金山。
They're based in San Francisco.
我们刚才在后台正谈到这个，但我跟一些矿业行业的人聊过，他们提到，采矿业最大的问题之一就是勘测，也就是找到矿藏的位置。
So you and I were starting to talk about this backstage, but there's some folks I talked to in the mining industry who mentioned, you know, like, the the the big issue with mining, number one, is just surveying, like, finding the the the locations.
对吧？
Right?
那里有没有可以创造的优势？
Is there an advantage to be created there?
因为我知道有几家初创公司正在努力聪明地选择地点，以高效地开采目标资源。
Because I know there's a couple startups that are trying to be really smart about selecting locations to get the targets out of the ground.
是的。
Yeah.
另一个问题是，你能挖得够深吗？
And then the other one is like, well, can you go deep?
因为地球上几乎任何地方，只要你愿意挖得足够深，就能得到你想要的东西，但成本与距离的平方成正比，对吧？
Because pretty much anywhere on earth you can get whatever you want if you're willing to go deep enough, but the cost is is distance squared, right?
所以能源成本大致与你挖掘深度的平方成正比。
So the energy cost is like how deep are you going to the to the second power?
因此，挖得越深，成本就会呈几何级数增长，但你越深，就越不需要担心选对地点。
So it becomes you know geometrically more expensive to go deeper but the deeper you go, you're the more you're able to kind of not worry about getting the right location.
那么自动化能否解锁这种能力？
So does automation unlock that capacity
确实可以。
definitely does.
我的意思是，是的。
I mean Yeah.
你的意思是，还有，那个，Boring Company是不是在做些不错的东西？
Did you mean, also it's like, man, does Boring Company have some good stuff going?
我希望我们也在做采矿这件事，而Boring Company确实能造出不错的隧道供汽车通行，但其实他们也有某种自动化掘进技术可以用于这些工作。
Like I hope we were like, we're doing the mining thing like, and Boring Goes makes, you know, some good tunnels for for cars to do the thing, but like there's some kind of boring mechanism, automated tunneling to do some of this.
但说实话，他们有个东西，叫稀土。
But to be honest, there's there's you know, they have this this thing, it's like rare earths.
我不知道他们为什么用复数形式。
I don't know why they put plural.
稀土，不是吗？
Rare earths, isn't it?
稀有地球？
Rares earth?
我不确定。
I don't know.
但是，抱歉。
But the Sorry.
稀土。
Rare Rare earth.
是的。
Yeah.
但其实并不稀少。
But the it's not rare.
在明尼苏达州不常见。
Not common in Minnesota.
伙计们，这
Guys, it's
并不稀少。
not rare.
真正对土地造成影响的是开采方式很激烈。
It's what you have to do to the land is aggressive.
而稀有的是那些允许你这么做的地方，而且你还能让人们接受。
And what's rare is the is is where the where are the places they'll let you do it that you can also sort of get people to.
当你实现自动化后，就可以去很多地方了。
When you automate, you can go to a lot of places.
现有的所有矿场都远更高效。
Well, is all the mines that exist are way more productive.
其次，你可以因此合理地前往以前无法涉足的地方，因为你不需要那么多人力，也减少了安全问题以及其他各种因素。
And the second is you can then sort of justify going to places you wouldn't have been able to go before, because you don't have as much of a labour footprint or a safety issue or a whole bunch of other things that then
所以如果一个地方变得不宜居住，或者受到严格监管，就像我说的，我不想住那儿，那简直是世界尽头。
So if it's become inhospitable, if it's regulated, it's like, I don't want to live there, it's the end of the Earth
是的。
Yeah.
你可以派遣机器人，让人远程监控。
You can send robots and have people monitoring them remotely.
是的。
Yeah.
这看起来像是一个有点像科幻小说的未来。
And this is like a future that feels like a little bit like science fiction.
听我说，我们现在在奥斯汀。
Look, we're here in Austin.
你得提一下特斯拉和所有这些事情，因为我喜欢拆解物理AI栈，它不仅包括计算，还包括物理AI模型，以及你所想到的所有其他东西。
You got to do the shout out to Tesla and all the things, because I like to sort of break down the physical AI stack includes not just like, oh yeah, computation and I've got to have physical AI models and I've got to all the things you sort of think of.
那土地开发呢？
What about land development?
那也应该包含在这一栈中。
That should be in that stack.
化学呢？
What about chemistry?
化学也必须包含在这一栈中。
That needs to be in the stack.
制造业也必须包含在这一栈中。
Manufacturing needs to be in the stack.
当你看这个技术栈时，你会想：天啊。
When you look at the stack, you're like, damn.
特斯拉拥有这一切。
Tesla's got this.
他们是这个时代的谷歌，我所说的正是这个意思，就像在二月那样。
They are they are the Google of this era, which is what I mean by that is in the February.
如果你在二月创办一家初创公司，你最先被问到的问题就是：为什么谷歌不会把你干掉？
If you were doing a startup in the February, the first question you would get is why isn't why isn't Google gonna kill you?
或者为什么谷歌不直接自己做呢？
Or why isn't Google just gonna do it?
为什么谷歌明明知道能把你干掉。
Why are Google just gonna know that they killed you.
在那之前是微软。
And before that Microsoft.
在那之前是微软，九十年代末。
And before that was Microsoft, the late nineties.
Uber在2010年有过一段时期。
Uber had a time, 2010.
是的。
Yeah.
如果Uber把这功能加到应用里呢？
What if Uber puts that in the app?
别开玩笑了。
Come on.
这就像说，伙计，这是Uber啊。
It's like, dude, this is Uber.
我就说，是的。
I'm like Yeah.
但你知道，在物理AI领域，这更像是特斯拉的领域。
But you know, I think in the physical AI space, that's a that's sort of a Tesla thing.
但要做的事情太多了，你得抓住机会，得去尝试一下，而且
But there's so many things to do, you got to shoot your shot, got to do some And
有传言说，你可能并没有放弃自动驾驶，而你可是最早投身这一领域的人。
rumors that, hey, you might not be done with self driving, something that you were very early on.
你如何看待当前自动驾驶领域的竞争格局？
How do you think about what you're seeing in the playing field of self driving?
我的天，你知道吗，Waymo 进展得非常好。
Because my lord, you know, Waymo's making great progress.
特斯拉的进展也非常出色。
Tesla's making great progress.
是的。
Yeah.
在特斯拉、Waymo 和 Uber 之间，你选谁赢？
Pick a winner between Tesla Tesla, Waymo, Uber.
或者像 Uber 这样的公司，似乎正在构建一套完整的系统。
Or or like Uber Uber Uber seems to be building a network of stuff.
是的。
Yeah.
我的意思是，选一个赢家吧。
I mean, like number of Pick a winner.
现在这个领域的玩家数量真是疯狂。
The number of players in this space is crazy now.
对吧？
Right?
比如
Like
是的。
Yeah.
听我说，现在这里噪音太多，叫得凶的多，真正有行动的少。
Look, there's I think there's more noise there's more bark than there is bite right now.
我认为Waymo显然领先，已经有实际成果证明了。
Look, I think Waymo obviously is ahead, the existence proof is there.
他们的问题在于制造、规模化、紧迫感和竞争强度，比如
Their issue is manufacturing and scale and urgency and fierceness like
好吧。
let's Yeah.
来吧。
Come on.
我们赢吧。
Let's win.
我们走吧。
Let's go.
是的。
Yeah.
你知道吗，优步以前有个自动驾驶项目，但如今他们的策略不同了。
You know, Uber had an autonomy project back in the day to and they have a different strategy these days.
我有一阵子没去那里了。
I haven't been there for a while.
但重点是，你有Waymo，然后还有特斯拉，基础、科学、硬核模式，乘以一百倍。
So but the but the point is is that you so you got Waymo, then you've got Tesla, fundamentals, science, hard mode times a 100.
问题是，它们会在多长时间内实现？
And the question is, do they get there in what time scale?
如果真的，说实话，大家都觉得可能明天就会发生，也可能五年内发生。
If if they and, like, honestly, everybody's like, could happen tomorrow, could happen in five years.
我认为这就像视觉领域的ChatGPT时刻什么时候到来？
And I think that it's like when does the chat GPT moment happen for vision?
本质上就是所谓的仅靠视觉、不依赖其他传感器的技术。
It's basically the thing, let's call it vision without other sensors.
非常鼓舞人心，但它的实现时间表是多久？
So super inspiring, but like what's the timeline on it?
没错。
Yep.
这些是基础，基本上是这样，然后还有很多其他小公司，我认为它们目前还不具备这些能力。
Those are the base this is basically the and then there's a lot of other little guys that don't really have the stuff, I believe, yet.
目前还没有哪家公司从其他公司中脱颖而出。
There's nobody standing out just yet of of the others.
你觉得我们现在是否已经到了这样一个阶段？显然，随着你开始接触更多这类能够自主移动的系统，我们是否已经拥有经过优化、 ready for prime time 的视觉-语言-动作模型？
Do you think we're at a point now, like, obviously, now that you're getting into more of these kind of autonomous systems that move around, like, do we have these vision language action models tuned and ready for prime time?
一直有人在讨论，谁会成为视觉-语言-动作操作系统的安卓？你可以用语音告诉它做某事，它能理解你的话，识别出物体，然后在物理世界中执行操作。
There's there's been a conversation like who's gonna have the Android, the operating system for vision language action where I can use my voice, tell it to do something and it knows what I'm saying and then it identifies the objects and does the thing in the physical world.
这些模型现在存在吗？还是说仍然在研发中？
Do those models exist today or there still work?
这种操作系统会是谷歌的吗？或者它会从哪里来？
And is that like a Google OS or like where does that OS come from?
说实话，这个领域现在充满了活力，是研究与实践的结合。
Look, think there's a there this is an area of a lot of energy, a mix of research and implementation.
我觉得这里有很多希望和有趣的东西。
I think there's a lot of hope and interesting stuff.
从宏观来看，我们都记得使用 ChatGPT 3.5 时的情景，你当时会想，天啊
I mean, the high level is we all remember what happened when you used chat GPT 3.5, and you're like, holy
是的
Yeah.
这确实是真的。
It's legit.
哇哦。
Woah.
然后它就发展到了第四代，你就会觉得，好吧，有些东西真的变了。
And then it went to four and you're like, okay, like, some stuff just changed.
世界彻底改变了，我开始能串联起一些线索，事情变得真实起来了。
The world just changed and I can sort of connect some dots and shit getting real.
它要发生了吗？
Is it about to happen?
物理AI要爆发了吗？
Is it about to happen for physical AI?
而这正是我们讨论的核心。
And that's what this is about.
是的。
Yeah.
有趣的是，多年来，机器学习、深度学习这类技术一直难以理解，我不知道它在想什么，它只是输出一个答案，而我知道这是正确的。
And the fun part about it is machine learning, deep learning, this kind of thing for many years, decades was like inscrutable, I don't know what the thing is thinking, it just spits out an answer and I know it's correct.
但现在你可以和它对话了。
Well now you can have a conversation with it.
对吧？
Right?
想象一下，如果它在驾驶你的汽车，有多个智能体，一个在开车，另一个却说：嘿，那边注意一下。
Like imagine if it's driving your car and there's different agents and one's just driving, other's like, yo, look out over there.
是的。
Yeah.
就像我们平时相处的方式一样。
It's like, oh, just like how we roll.
它看起来就像有人在这么做，你会说：亲爱的，那东西离我们有200米远呢。
It looks like somebody does that, you're like you're like, honey, that's like 200 meters away.
我们将会成为
We're gonna be a
兄弟。
bro.
是的。
Yeah.
杰森和我不叫彼此亲爱的，
Jason and I don't call each other honey,
但我懂了。
but I gotcha.
是的。
Yes.
甜心。
Sweetie.
你知道的。
You know.
是的。
Yeah.
好的。
Okay.
所以不管怎样，那很奇怪，对吧？
So anyways, that was odd, wasn't it?
好的。
Okay.
那很奇怪。
That was strange.
好的。
Okay.
好的。
Okay.
我不是那个意思
I didn't mean it
那样。
that way.
总是这样。
Always does.
我不是那个意思。
Didn't mean it.
是的。
Yeah.
是的。
Yeah.
你知道，我是认真的。
You know, I meant it.
是的。
Yeah.
好的。
Okay.
语言是一种美妙的压缩机制，人类只用100瓦的能量就能实现，而你想想看，在AI训练、AI能耗、为这些尚未达到人类水平的系统供电的发电厂的背景下，这算什么？
Language is a beautiful compression mechanism that humans use a 100 watts of energy, like and you put that in the scheme of things of like AI training, AI energy, the power plants that are built to do the thing that isn't even at human strength yet, okay?
Waymo机器驾驶一辆Waymo所消耗的能量，是人类驾驶同一辆车的100倍。
The Waymo machine takes a 100 times more energy to drive a Waymo than a human does to drive a Waymo.
所以语言方面，人类仍然有一些擅长的领域，这些领域我们依然是无可争议的王者。
So language, there are still things that humans are great at and that unbeaten like the GOAT, we're still the GOAT at certain things.
语言是一种非凡的压缩机制，我们需要找到压缩的方法，因为当你回想起我们最初如何观察物理世界时，我们看到的是所有东西。
Language is this epic compression, and we need to find ways to compress because like when you think about how how we first started looking at the physical world is we saw everything.
你知道吗，伙计们，这其实挺明显的——只要我在开车，云在做什么根本无关紧要。
And you know what guys, and this is sort of obvious, like it doesn't matter what the cloud is doing if I'm driving.
但汽车本身并不知道这一点，它仍在不断获取每一个数据点并处理所有信息。你知道，他们一直在努力剔除那些无关紧要的部分，但还有更极致的版本——你可以想象，如何利用语言或类似语言的机制，在智能体之间，或在驾驶系统的安全系统中进行高效沟通，从而快速获得精准答案并高效识别安全隐患。
But like the car doesn't know that, it's pulling in every frickin' data point and processing everything and it's it's, you know, look, they've been about sort of carving out the things that don't matter and things like this, but there's ultra awesome versions of this and you can imagine how you can use language or things that look like language to communicate either amongst agents or sort of safety systems with a driving system to sort of get very efficient answers and to identify safety issues very efficiently.
大多数人还不知道你已经搬到了德克萨斯州，不过这事已经传开了。
People don't know that you've moved to Texas as of well, most people don't know, but it's it's out there.
是的。
Yeah.
你是在十二月搬到这里来的，现在你是奥斯汀的居民了。
You moved here in December, so now you're a resident of Austin.
是的
Yeah.
我本来是带了
I was I brought
谢谢。
thank you.
这让我非常兴奋。
It's very exciting for me.
我们一直在玩双陆棋。
We've been getting to play some backgammon.
双陆棋牌。
Backgammon cards.
我们玩得很开心。
It's a We're having a good time.
自2021年以来，我就在奥斯汀湖边有一处房产，经常去那里。
So I've had a place on Lake Austin since 2021, and I go there.
我是个狂热的滑水爱好者，比如
I'm an avid water skier, like
你滑水真厉害，我呢
You're impressive at water skiing, I have
得说。
to say.
所以我在奥斯汀有个地方已经五年了。
Like So I've had a place in Austin for five years.
简直爱死了。
Freaking love it.
这是我的周末。
It's my weekend.
我每年会去十五个周末。
I would go 15 weekends a year.
你觉得加利福尼亚会发生什么？
What do you think is gonna happen in California?
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这事儿挺乱的。
It's pretty messed up.
听我说，我是在加州长大的。
Look, I I grew up in Cali.
我是住在洛杉矶长大的。
Like, I grew up in Los Angeles.
我父母生在洛杉矶，长在洛杉矶，简直可以说是洛杉矶的奠基人了。
My parents were born and bred in Los Angeles, which basically makes them the founders of LA.
明白吗？
Okay?
但我对这里感情很深，我全家都是，你知道的。
But so I have a lot of heart, like my whole family, everything, you know?
这事儿真的很，真的很，是的。
It's pretty it's pretty it's yeah.
我不希望这样，太糟糕了。
Don't want it A lot a lot
我们都有这种感觉。
of us feel that way.
我不想把小提琴拿出来，但就是这样。
I don't want to get the violin out but it just Yeah.
这令人心碎。
It's heartbreaking.
完全同意。
Totally.
你长大的地方就是你的家，你知道的？
It's just the place you grew up, it's your home, you know?
当你不得不离开的时候。
When you have to leave.
但外面变得越来越奇怪，感觉越来越离谱。
But it's getting weird out there, and it feels like it's getting weirder.
在某个时刻，这就太离谱了。
And at some point, that's it's just too weird.
这太奇怪了。
It's too weird.
你觉得每个人都会离开吗？
Do you think everyone's gonna leave?
我是说，这事始于埃隆，当时就是这样的，是的。
I mean, it started with Elon and it was like Yeah.
他不是我们
He was don't we
不想让埃隆在这儿，然后他好像收到了消息，对吧。
don't want Elon here and then he's like message received Right.
然后这种趋势逐渐蔓延到科技行业，接着影响到那些创业的人，现在范围已经变得如此广泛，涉及到了普通民众
And then it kind of worked its way down the tech industry and then the kind of it, you know, world of people building businesses and whatnot and now it's kind of gotten so broad in terms of the Joe
罗根、喜剧、音乐、纽约人、餐馆老板。
Rogan, comedy, music, New Yorkers, restaurateurs.
我的意思是，这个地方我甚至都不
I mean this place is I'm not even
在谈论这件事。
talking about this.
我只是在说，每个人离开洛杉矶，或者更准确地说，离开加州，几乎就像是沿着这条路径一步步走下去。
I'm just talking about everyone leaving LA or sorry, leaving California is almost like working down this path of
听我说，我的其他团队成员都在问：我们什么时候搬？
Look, my the rest of my team's like, we're when are we moving?
你知道的？
You know?
他们说
They're like
而且你怎么
And how
你
are you
应对这种情况？
dealing with that?
所以当时的问题是这样的
So that was the question was like
非得在湖边买房吗？
Gotta buy homes on the lake?
我接触过几十位初创公司的首席执行官，那些成功或正在成长的公司，他们都说：老兄，我想离开，但我这里有员工。
There are literally dozens of startup CEOs of, call it successful or growing companies that I talked to, who are like, dude, I wanna leave, but I got employees here.
我这里有办公室。
I got an office here.
我这里有设施。
Got a facility here.
我在这里搞研发。
I build stuff here.
是的。
Yeah.
我该怎么离开呢？
How am I gonna leave?
是的。
Yeah.
对。
Yeah.
我完全理解。
I totally get it.
这确实是个现实问题。
It's a real thing.
所以你看，我认为大多数事情都是这样，当时候到了，做某事让你感到痛苦时，有时其实并没有你想象的那么糟，你只需要做出决定，勇敢地去行动。
So look, I think like most things sort of when it's time and it feels painful to do something, sometimes it's actually not as bad as you think, and you just gotta make the move and lead and do it.
所以这差不多就是我经历的一个过程，就像一种哀悼的过程，事情就是这样。
And so that's kinda what that's kinda the process, almost like a mourning process I went through, and that's just what it is.
你在这里组建了一个团队。
And you're setting up a team here.
是的，当然。
Yeah, of course.
我那间办公室就在湖边。
And I got that office right on the lake.
你得到了吗？
Did you get that?
就是那一个。
It's The one
我们正在谈判，不行。
we are negotiating No.
不行。
No.
一切都好。
It's all good.
我们正在谈。
We're negotiating right
现在。
now.
很好。
Good.
但我打算开水上摩托去上班。
But I'm gonna jet ski to work.
不行。
No.
真的，我们当时就是那样，这是个真实的故事。
Literally, we were it's a it's a true story.
去年，我们开车经过那里，我当时就想，哇。
Last year, we were, like, driving up the thing, I was like, wow.
我不禁想知道谁拥有那栋房子。
I wonder who owns that.
他跟我说，我会买下它。
He's like, I will.
我当时问他，你看过那房子了吗？
And I was like, did you look at it?
他说，我看过那个了。
He's like, I looked at that.
我当时想，那真是个不错的选择。
And I was like, that's a that would be a nice one.
但说实话，几年前有几个人搬到这里，他们的反应都一样。
But the the truth is, you know, and I had a couple people move here a couple years ago, and they all had the same reaction.
天哪。
Oh my god.
我在这里住的地方大小是原来的两倍，价格却只有一半。
I'm living in a place that's twice as big for half as much.
这里的人太棒了。
The people here are dope.
这里的美食太棒了。
The food is dope.
这里每个人都有一种我们在建设未来的感觉，一切都充满乐趣和积极向上的氛围。
Everybody here has got this sense that we're building the future, and it's just fun and world positive.
你知道吗，对我来说，我得真正生活一下。
And you know, for me, I got to live.
纽约、洛杉矶、旧金山，我待过这个国家的三大城市。
New York, LA, San Francisco, I I did three of the great cities in this country.
但这里让我感觉最像家，这对我来说是一种很奇怪的感觉，但我觉得这里每个人都想建设未来，而且这里非常多元，你知道的。
This one feels the most like home to me, which is a very strange feeling to me, but it feels like everybody here wants to build the future, and it's very diverse, know?
各种不同的行业和人群都在追求自己的事业，我觉得这才是未来。
Like all these different industries and people pursuing stuff, I think this is the future.
是的。
Yeah.
是这样，当你去旧金山的时候，我依然对那里有些怀旧，毕竟我是在那里创办了Uber，经历了整个过程。
Here's the thing, like you go to San Francisco, and I still have a little nostalgia when I go to San Francisco just having built Uber there and the whole thing.
我依然会感到心跳加速。
I still get the, you know, the butterflies.
我真的会，你知道的。
Just I do, you know?
但它确实有一种魔力。
But it does have something magical.
你根本无法把它拿走。
You you just can't take it away.
然后你看看这些自行车道和公交专用道，却从来不见公交车或自行车。
And then you look at all of these bike lanes and these bus lanes that never have a bus or a bike in them.
而修建一英里就要花费四亿美元。
And cost $400,000,000 to build one mile.
这简直就像是潜意识里想把这座城市扼杀掉。
And it's literally it's sort of like this subconscious desire to choke the city off.
记住，我是通过道路来看待事物的，这就是我的思维方式，所以我觉得
Now remember, I look at things through roads, that's how I think, so I'm
显然，这座城市完全瘫痪了。
just like, obviously, the city is totally busted.
是的。
Yeah.
完全正确。
Totally.
他们真的把市场街给改造了，心想：怎样才能既把这条路堵死，又顺便展示一下道德优越感呢？
They they literally took Market Street, and they're like, what would be the optimal way to this up and virtue signal at the same time?
然后他们就说，好。
And they're like, yeah.
公交车。
Buses.
结果没人坐公交车。
And it's like, nobody's on the bus.
根本没人坐公交。
Nobody takes the bus.
这真是个美丽的小镇。
It's a beautiful small town.
整个区域都是空的。
That whole is empty.
整条街都是空的。
Whole street is empty.
它挂着红色的装饰。
It's hanging red.
好的。
Okay.
所以我们一直在不停地抱怨和聊天。
So we all bitch and complain nonstop chat.
你什么时候走？
When are you leaving?
我……
I'm
第一名。
number one.
我明白了。
I get it.
自由的鸟。
Free bird.
你什么时候走？
When are you leaving?
好的。
Okay.
好吧，关于
Well On the
聊天方面，你最棒了。
chat, you're the best.
对吧？
Right?
是的。
Yeah.
我就说好吧。
I'm like Okay.
所以让我顺便说一下，其实 yeah。
So let me just By the way, there's Yeah.
几杯葡萄酒
Couple glasses of wine
面向公众的鸟。
public facing bird.
是的。
Yeah.
然后他说，你知道，我觉得有更好的方法来做这件事。
And he's like, you know, I think there's a better way to do this.
然后群里有个叫‘达斯·炸鸟’的人。
And then there's like, Darth Fried bird in group chat.
他说，这些人，这些蠢货，正在毁掉社会。
He's like, these people, these morons, they're they're destroying society.
他就是群里那个‘达斯·炸伯格’。
He is like, Darth Friedberg in group chat.
我在撒谎吗？我在撒谎吗？
Am I lying am I lying?
他是最
Is he the most
没错。
Correct.
尤其是喝了几杯酒之后。
Especially after a couple glasses of wine.
是的。
Yeah.
当我开始喝酒的时候，
When I start drinking,
我会说，他就像，
I'm gonna go he's like,
我就会摔下来
I fall off
悬崖。
a cliff.
他喜欢拍照。
He takes pictures.
他就像喝了第四杯酒了。
He's like, fourth beverage.
我回应说：是的。
I'm like Yeah.
哦，留在那个热闹的聊天室里真值得。
Oh, it's worth staying in that buzzing room chat.
是的。
Yeah.
然后我就想，去推特上攻击那位国会议员，但我后来意识到
And then I'm like, I'll go and attack this congressman on Twitter, which I realized
这大概不会有什么好结果。
is probably not gonna live.
发推文。
Tweet.
是的。
Yeah.
别删除这条推文。
Don't delete the tweet.
是的。
Yeah.
我会删除推文。
I delete the tweets.
好吧。
Okay.
有一群人正试图筹集五亿美元，成立一个科技与商业联盟，前往萨克拉门托——这 arguably 是每个人长期以来都回避的事情，因为没人愿意花时间去该死的萨克拉门托和政客们较劲。
So there's a group of people trying to raise $500,000,000 to create, like, a tech slash business coalition to go to Sacramento, which arguably is something that everyone's left and avoided doing forever because no one wants to spend time in freaking Sacramento fighting politicians.
但我们都像是快要从悬崖上掉下去了，现在是时候行动了。
But it's almost like we're all falling off a cliff, it's time to do something.
你认为还有现实的回归路径吗？
Do you think there's a realistic path pack?
你认为人们真的能团结起来吗？即使有五亿美元到账，也有可能扭转局势、改善一些政策吗？
Do you think that people can actually get their together that even if 500,000,000 came in, there's a way to kind of turn around the state, fix some of the policies?
你觉得太晚了吗？
You think it's too late?
我不这么认为，但你看，我会说，我观察一下。
I don't think that but look, I would go I look.
任何正在努力解决问题的人，我都说：太好了。
Anybody who's doing anything to fix things, I'm like, hell yeah.
我们行动起来吧。
Let's do something.
问题是，我们都成长于科技世界，那里就像一个自由意志主义的环境，你远离政治，而那种方式失败了。
The issue is we all grew up in the tech world which was like a libertarian place where you stay out of politics and that kind You failed.
那种氛围就是这样。
It was that kind of vibe.
当时每个人都是这样。
It was just everybody was like that.
别管我。
Leave me alone.
我想创造东西。
I wanna make stuff.
是的。
Yeah.
我只是，我不做那种事。
I just I I'm not I don't do that.
显然，现在这种情况已经不一样了。
And that's obviously this is not a thing anymore.
在加利福尼亚，我认为公投提案非常有力量，而且有很清晰的方式可以把某项提案列入投票名单。
In California, I think the the ballot initiatives are very powerful, and there's very clean ways to get something on the ballot.
我喜欢这样。
Love that.
我认为，那些决定再也不追究犯罪行为的地区检察官，这种做法简直是个理想状态。
I think that your DAs who have decided we do not enforce crime at all anymore, that's like a sweet spot.
我相信我曾经有过这样一个格言：正义是社会的免疫系统。
Like I believe that I sort of had this aphorism, and justice are the immune system for society.
当免疫系统被抑制时，各种社会弊病就会全面爆发。
When the immune system is suppressed all the social ills flare up.
所以，要关注那些真相与正义正在被削弱、被贬低的地方，思考我们该如何应对？
So look for the places where truth and justice are being deteriorated, are being degraded, and say how do we get at that?
因为一旦解决了这些问题，所有下游的状况都会随之改善。
Because if you get at that everything else downstream will be better.
这就是我看待事物的方式，也是我判断世界是在变好还是变坏的标准。
So that's kind of how I look at things and how I also determine whether the world's getting better or worse.
当我提到‘奇怪’时，我说的是真相与正义。
When I say weird, I'm talking about truth and justice.
这就是我说‘天啊，情况越来越奇怪了’时真正的意思。
That's what I mean when I say, oh man, it's getting weird.
情况变得更奇怪了，这意味着它本来就怪。
It's getting weirder, which means it's weird.
我只是在谈论真相与正义。
I'm just talking about truth and justice.
你看那个无家可归产业综合体，看看切萨·布丁，我们整个团队、萨克斯，还有我们团队，实际上正是我们主导了对他的罢免。
Well, mean, and and you look at the homeless industrial complex, you look at Chesa Boudin, which the all in pod, Saxx, myself, and the pod, like, we we literally led the recall of him.
然后你在洛杉矶也看到了同样的情况，他们只是觉得如果有人
And then you had the same thing going on in LA where they were just like if somebody
加斯孔。
Gascon.
是的。
Yeah.
加斯孔。
Gascon.
我的意思是，我们基本上已经失去了方向。
I mean, we basically lost the script.
你这是在为罪犯管理城市。
You're running the city for the criminals.
这简直就像一部蝙蝠侠电影。
It literally is like a Batman movie.
就像贝恩一样。
It's like Bane.
我的意思是，你想要
I mean, here You want
逮捕罪犯。
to arrest the criminals.
看看
Look at
我出生在黑暗中。
I was born in the darkness.
我的意思是，这些人简直是疯子。
I mean, these guys are fucking lunatics.
是的。
Yeah.
看。
Look.
我认识一些洛杉矶的警察，他们已经不再是警察了。这些是终身致力于保护和服务的人，保护他人、惩恶扬善早已融入他们的血脉和基因，但他们却因渴望服务却眼睁睁看着恶行发生却无法阻止而几乎患上了创伤后应激障碍。
I I know police officers in Los Angeles who are no longer police officers, And these are lifelong guys who protect and serve, that's in their bloods or DNA, they want to protect people, they want the bad guys to be dealt with, and they almost have PTSD from what it is like to want to serve and see bad things happening and not being allowed to stop it.
是的。
Yeah.
没人支持他们，他们也不被允许履行职责。
Nobody's got their back and they're not allowed to do their job.
这太疯狂了，而且情况越来越诡异。
It's it's crazy, and I it's getting weird.
好的。
Okay.
嘿。
Hey.
我想再回到
I wanna just go back to
AI 对不起，光线太暗了。
AI Sorry for the darkness.
不知道。
Don't know.
我觉得这样挺好。
I think it's good.
我本来想引导一下，我正在试图引导，是的。
I was trying to induce I'm trying to induce Yeah.
黑暗的弗里伯格。
Dark Friedberg.
哦，带来了黑暗。
Oh, brought dark.
是的。
Yes.
我的意思是，有人给我拿杯龙舌兰酒来。
I mean, someone bring me a tequila.
我该走了。
I'll get going.
是的。
Yeah.
咱们干吧。
Let's do it.
我们能来几杯龙舌兰酒吗？
Can we get a couple tequila?
这挺搞笑的。
It was funny.
我昨天上了个播客，那个家伙和我，第一小时的内容挺中庸的。
I went on this podcast yesterday and the guy and I the fur the guy was the first hour was middle of the road.
他在聊科技和科学。
Was talking about tech and science.
然后聊到了政治。
And then like politics came up.
他问：所以你是社会主义者？
He's like, so socialism.
他说你搞砸了。
And he said like, you lost it.
然后你就说，他说，气氛一下子提升了十倍，
And then you were like, he's like, the energy went 10 x and
它就是
it was
是的。
Yeah.
几周后就会发布。
It'll come out in a couple weeks.
但我当时觉得，这让我兴奋起来了。
But I was like, it got me going.
好的。
Okay.
我们再聊聊物理AI吧。
Wanna talk about physical AI one more time.
是的。
Yeah.
所以现在你正在做这个，我前几天看了一场演示。
So one of now that now that you're doing this, I saw a presentation the other day.
有人展示了一个松鼠从一棵树跳到另一棵树的视频。
Someone showed like a video of a squirrel jumping from one tree to another tree.
他们说，功耗只有十分之一瓦特左右。
And they're like, a tenth of a watt or something.
是的。
Yeah.
生物体的机制经过了精密的优化，在完成物理任务时，能量利用效率极高。
Like like the the biology is tuned and it's so perfect in terms of its efficiency of energy utilization to do physical things.
我们却在使用这些巨大的金属、电机和执行器，如果把系统中所有低效的地方加总起来，让机器人走四英尺竟然要消耗1200瓦的功率，是的。
And we're taking these like big things of metal and motors and like actuators and if you add up or you compound all of the inefficiencies in the system, it's like 1,200 watts to get the robot to walk four foot like Yeah.
不仅要拆解软件，还要分析硬件层面——我们在执行器、材料以及其他让物理AI得以发展和扩展的技术上，目前进展到什么程度了？
Like break apart not just the software but the hardware layer and where are we at in evolving things like actuators and the materials and everything else that's gonna make physical AI work and scale?
好吧，你问的很多问题都集中在人形机器人这个方向，就是这种东西。
Well, look, a lot with the questions you're asking are going down humanoid lane, which is like this thing.
而且每个人都讨论怎么实现手部功能。
And and everybody talks about how do you do the hand.
几乎像是对《终结者2》中手部的痴迷，这也很合理。
It's almost like Terminator two type obsession with the hand, which is fair.
毕竟，手部确实是其中非常关键的部分。
Like, it's a very critical part of it.
我的意思是，看看这些机器的‘阿喀琉斯之踵’，你会发现，真正的关键就在这里。
I mean, look at the I like to look at the Achilles, the quote unquote Achilles tendon of any of these machines, and you're like, that's where the action is.
这还有其他几个关键点。
This this is a couple other places.
你看，我身处非人形领域，机械工程师们一直在处理执行器以及各种使机器完成特定动作的机电交互，但我从事的是食品机械领域，所以我能告诉你如何在不撕破纸袋的情况下打开纸袋并把一个碗放进去。
Look, I'm in the nonhumanoid space, I mean, but mechanical engineers have been dealing with actuators and you know all the sort of electromechanical sort of interactions that make machines do certain things, but like I'm in the food machine space, so I can tell you how to open a paper bag and put a a bowl in a paper bag without tearing the paper bag.
但我对那些感知和触觉的传感器不太了解，那个词我一时想不起来了。
But I am less into the, I forget the name, perio, they're they're the senses to understand awareness and touch.
我不玩这一行。
I'm not in that game.
所以当你在采矿时，你不会像那样，你知道，你知道……
So when you're mining, you're like, you're not like, you know, you know
你不是在穿针引线。
You're not threading a needle.
你也不是在打网球。
You're not playing tennis.
有些事情可能相当于打网球。
Certain things may be equivalent to tennis.
所以总的来说，很明显，你只要上网看看人形机器人这些年来的发展，就能发现它们变得越来越好了。
So look, the bottom line is we're seeing, obviously all you have to do is go online and look at where the humanoids are going over time and how much better they're getting.
这太疯狂了，而且发生得简直太快了，但任何人形机器人的演示都从跳舞和武术开始。
It's wild and it's happening so freaking fast, but any humanoid demo starts with dancing and martial arts.
是的。
Yeah.
而我们则专注于专用机器人领域，也就是能创造价值的机器人。
And we're sort of down specialized robot lane which is gainfully employed robots.
是的。
Yeah.
我知道我并没有完全回答
So I know I didn't totally answer
关于那个问题，
the question on like
技术层面，
technology piece,
但我只是想问，你是否同意，在材料科学和额外研究方面，很可能存在巨大的风险投资和研究机会？
but I just like, do you agree that there's probably like a big opportunity for venture money and like research to go into material science, extra work,
当然。
For sure.
因为物理AI栈的操控以及所有相关技术
Because if the physical AI stack manipulation and all of the related things around it
是的。
Yeah.
规模巨大。
Is massive.
所以如果你让软件运行起来，硬件几乎就得跟上。
And so if you get the software working, it's almost like the hardware has to catch up.
没错。
Yes.
但我们确实获得了大量投资，我确实如此。
But we got a lot of investment the I do.
实际上，你提到这一点很好。
Well, actually, it's good that you bring this up.
你知道吗，你在Uber时开创了一项举措，就是把资本当作武器。
You know, one of the things you pioneered at Uber was capital as a weapon.
你当时非常仔细地考虑过，嘿。
And you were very thoughtful about, hey.
如果我们能把这笔资本拿走，那就直说吧，
If we can take this capital off the table, then that's going to let's call it what it is.
这会让我们在竞争中占据优势，而其他竞争对手无法获得这样的资本。
It's gonna be an advantage versus the competitors, and these other competitors couldn't get that capital.
现在，人们已经看懂了这种策略，他们说，萨姆·沃尔顿真聪明。
That's now, I think, people have seen that playbook, and they're like, Sam Woman's like, that was smart.
让我也试试。
Let me try.
但现在的规模完全不同了。
And it's at a different scale.
既然你已经从隐身状态中现身
Now that you've come out of Stealth
是的
Yeah.
现在你拥有了，而且人们开始理解了，是的。
Now that you've got, and and people are starting to understand Yeah.
就是从今天开始，是的。
Just starting today Yeah.
你的愿景有多大，资本作为武器，是的。
How big your vision is, capital as a weapon Yeah.
这大概是在你的计划之中。
This is, I guess, in your plan.
是吗？
Yeah?
我的意思是，关键是这样。
Well, I mean, here's the thing.
对吧？
Right?
因此，将资本作为纯粹为了自身而存在的战略武器并不存在，但当它真正成为战略武器时，它就成为了关键。
So capital as a strategic weapon for its own sake is not a thing, but when it is actually a strategic weapon, then it is a thing.
我的意思是，在优步早期，如果你没有资本，无论你的应用多好都没用，因为孙正义会向你的竞争对手投入十亿美元，而你明天就会失去20%的市场份额。
And what I mean by that is like in the Uber world early days, if you didn't have capital, it didn't matter how good your app was because Masa's gonna put a billion dollars into your competitor and you're gonna lose 20% market share tomorrow.
因此，一个关键能力——事实上，是你世界级能力之一——必须是筹集资本，而且你需要比任何人都做得更好。
So a critical competency, in fact, to your world class competencies, one of them has to be raising capital and you need to do it better than everybody else.
如果你做不到，你就会失败。
And if you don't, you are going to lose.
让我就这一点问一个后续问题。
Let me ask one follow-up to that.
是的。
Yeah.
抱歉。
Sorry.
你请说。
You go ahead.
是的。
Yeah.
但中东地区。
But The Middle East.
是的。
Yeah.
过去几天我听到一些说法，认为由于中东地区伊朗战争的局势，目前大型资本寻求者正面临困难。
I've heard theories the last couple days that big capital seekers are kind of right now because of what's going on in The Middle East with the Iran War.
迪拜、卡塔尔和沙特阿拉伯正打算暂停向美国注入资本。
Dubai, Qatar, Saudis are kind of gonna close-up the capital flowing to The US right now.
这真实吗？
And is that real?
我的意思是，你认为这真的是一个威胁吗？
I mean, do you think that's a real threat?
所以你看，我们原本计划在一月份让中东业务上市，但沙特市场在大约两个月内下跌了20%，这给整个局势带来了巨大打击。
So look, our Middle East business was supposed to go public in January, and the Saudi market went down 20% over like a two month period, and that was like a massive damper on the situation.
这部分部分原因是油价急剧下跌。
Now part of that was because the oil prices had gone down so dramatically.
如果你去沙特阿拉伯，去那个王国，每个人都会说：我们需要油价上涨。
And if you went into KSA, you went to the kingdom, everybody's like, we need we need oil prices to go up.
你知道，这是问题的另一面。
You know, that's the other side of the equation.
所以我不知道发生了什么，看，我现在并没有在筹集资金，这是一件两周前的事，你知道，我和大家一样只是看新闻，我不会在战争进行时打电话说：嘿，你们有资金吗？
So I don't know what hap look, I'm not in the market raising money right at this moment, and this is a two week old thing that I, you know, look, I see the news just like everybody else, and I'm not out there calling while a war is going on and saying, hey, guys, you got some money?
所以我不确定具体会发生什么，但如果你是个乐观主义者，你会想：好吧，这不会永远持续下去，就像关税一样，当时人们觉得世界末日到了，结果并没有。
So I don't know exactly what's going to happen, but if you are an optimist and you're like, okay, this isn't this is not going on forever, just like the tariffs, it was the end of the world and then it wasn't.
是的。
Yeah.
很快就会结束。
Very quickly.
是的。
Yeah.
如果你对这种情况持乐观态度，认为这不会是世界的末日，甚至可能迎来一个更好的世界，那么我们就能走向更好的境地，我认为进步、富足和黄金时代就会到来。
If you're an optimist about this situation and it won't be the end of the world, maybe even a better world, then we get to a better place and I think progress, abundance, the golden age happens.
这其中很大一部分原因在于人工智能、物理人工智能以及即将出现的生产率提升——没错。
And a lot of it is about all the things that are happening in AI, in physical AI, and and and just the productivity gains that are coming Right.
以非常巨大的方式。
In very massive ways.
是的。
Yeah.
这曾经是震惊和震撼，然后呢，嘿。
And I mean, it was shock shock and awe, and then, hey.
现在我们进入了一个稳定状态，希望伊朗的情况也是如此，我们能够推翻这些邪恶的独裁者。
Now we've got a steady state, and let's hope that's what happens in Iran is that we can depose these evil dictators
但要换成一个更稳定的新体制。
Well, replace it with something a little more stable.
与此相关的是，在结束之前，他们即将前往中国，一项重大的贸易协议正在谈判中。
And related to this, before we wrap, they're going to China, there's a big trade deal being negotiated.
你希望这次中国之行带来什么结果？
What do you hope comes out of this Chinese thing?
你在 China 学到了什么？
And what did you learn in China?
你会学到什么。
What would yeah.
你会学到什么？你认为对美国来说什么是最好的？
What would you learn and and what do you think would be great for America?
比如，你希望看到什么，然后说：天啊，这会让我们所有人都受益？
Like, what would you like to see and be like, man, that's gonna set us all up?
别再说了。
No more.
听好了，关键是这样。
Look, here's the thing.
如果你现在去中国，参观一下那里的制造业、生产基地和城市，如果你连续几十年每年都去中国，你会说：天哪。
If you go to China right now and you go and just take a tour of the manufacturing that's going on there, just the manufacturing base, the cities, if you've gone to China for a couple decades in a row, you're like, damn.
是的。
Yeah.
那我们来做两件事吧。
You so let's just do two things.
你去深圳看看，那里以前感觉像堪萨斯城，但五十年前，而且非常潮湿，我想堪萨斯城有时也是这样。
You go to Shenzhen, which before felt like Kansas City, but fifty years ago and really humid, which I guess Kansas City sometimes.
但你现在去那里，感觉比新加坡还要更进一步。
But you go there now and it's like one upping Singapore.
对吧？
Right?
或者至少从城市的角度来看是这样。
Or so that's the city view.
你只是在体验一种非常了不起的氛围，你会觉得：这太先进了。
You're just experiencing a very awesome you're like, this is advanced.
你能感受到这种气息，而且无处不在。
And you just get the vibe and it's everywhere.
然后你去看看他们的制造基地，看到小米在做什么，或者其他的公司，到处都是充满干劲、厉害的角色，你就会想，天啊。
And then you go and you start seeing the manufacturing base and you see what like Xiaomi is doing or any of the other there's so many scrappy guys, badass guys everywhere and you're like, f.
他们很有野心。
They're hungry.
有人还记得2008年北京奥运会吗？
So does anybody remember the two thousand eight Olympics in Beijing?
有人记得吗？
Anybody?
这有点儿像是你掉进了一个深坑。
Does anybody this is a little bit you're down a rabbit hole.
有人记得开幕式吗？
Does anybody remember the opening ceremony?
你会觉得，这些家伙正在接管一切。
And you're like, these mofos are taking over.
至少他们是这么想的。
At least that's what they want to do.
这种事情正在发生。
That shit's happening.
所以对我来说，这没什么问题，也不是消极情绪。
So I don't have any issue or this is not negativity for me.
我觉得这些人太厉害了。
I'm like, these guys are killing it.
最好的想法会胜出，他们拼命追求真相与进步，正在实实在在地创造成果。
The best idea is winning, they're fiercely they're fiercely going after truth and progress and they're making shit happen.
咱们得提升一下水平，好吗？
Let's step up our game, okay?
但咱们也可以来场友好的较量，毕竟我们没必要
But we can also have a friendly game, like we don't have
像90年代的底特律活塞队那样。
to like be like the Detroit Pistons
你知道的？
in the nineties, you know?
是的。
Yes.
会不会存在一种
Can there there's a
别冲看台上去。
Don't way go into the stands.
对。
Yeah.
对。
Yeah.
你知道的。
You know?
这件事有正确的做法，也有像成年人那样处理的方式。
There's a way to do this right and there's a way to do it like adults.
我希望我们最终能走到那一步。
I hope that's where we would end up.
我有一个员工，因为我们长期以来是中国最大的厨房设备制造商之一。
I have a employee who because we we're we for for a long time we're the largest built kitchen builders in China.
我在中国有一个员工，他娶了一位美国妻子。
I have an employee in China, has an American wife.
明白吗？
K?
他们俩现在都住在中国。
They both live in China.
他们俩原本都是中国人，明白吗？
They're both from China originally, k?
但我想让他来这儿，帮我做一些我正在做的事情，那会很好。
But want want them to it would be great for him to work here on some things I'm doing.
现在要实现这一点非常困难。
It's very hard to make that happen right now.
这有点自私，就像我可能有点自私，我想：我跟这个人合作了十多年，真希望还能继续在这里一起工作。
Now that's selfish, like I like maybe selfish like I'm like, there's a person I've been working with for over a decade, I'd love to continue here.
也许还有一些我还没考虑到的更大格局的问题。
Maybe there's other bigger picture items that I'm not dealing with.
我不是搞地缘政治的，但我希望他们能保持良好的关系，比如，如果你的另一半是美国公民，我们非得把这事搞得这么难吗？
I'm not the geopolitical guy, but I'd love for them to be sort of good relations and good, like like, if you have a significant other who is an American citizen, like, do we have to make that hard as an example?
一些正常状态将会结束。
Some normalcy would end
某件事。
Something.
我只是这么说而已。
You know, I'm just saying.
我同意，确实有合法移民的正确方式。
Now I agree, like, there are ways to do immigration properly.
我们把这事搞得一塌糊涂。
Like, we f'd it up super bad.
别提了。
Don't even get me started.
但也有积极的移民现象。
But there's also there's good migration too.
很多伟大的创新者来自世界各地，为了他们自己的美国梦而来，愿上帝保佑他们。
Like, a lot of great innovators all over the place came from other places for their own version of the American dream, God bless.
弗里德伯格。
Friedberg.
这并不一定是一件坏事。
And we don't have to that doesn't have to be a negative thing.
所以我希望看到更多这样的情况，而且中国真是充满活力。
And so I'd like to see more of that and yeah, China's China's wild.
所以让我们专注于目标，也要给他们点颜色看看。
So let's let's keep our eye on the ball, and let's let's give them a run for their money too.
为TK鼓掌。
Give it up for TK.
好了。
Alright.
干得好，兄弟。
Well done, brother.
谢谢，兄弟。
Thanks, bro.
太棒了。
That was great.
见到你真好，兄弟。
Good to see you, brother.
哇。
Wow.
迈克尔·戴尔。
Michael Dell.
我的天。
My lord.
德克萨斯本地人。
Texas native.
迈克尔，是的。
Michael Yes.
出生在休斯顿。
Born born in Houston.
嗯，错过了开场。
Well, missed the the opening.
我们随着音乐起舞，但你当初在奥斯汀用一千美元创办了戴尔电脑。
We we jumped to the music, but you started Dell Computer here in Austin with a thousand bucks.
四十二年前，我在德克萨斯大学宿舍里，就在完成大一学期前十天左右。
Forty two years ago in my dorm room at Adobe at UT about ten days before I finished my freshman semester.
太惊人了。
Amazing.
而且一直进展得不错。
And it's been working out pretty good.
是的。
Yeah.
路上确实有些波折，但没错。
There's been some bumps in the road but Right.
是的。
Yeah.
总体来说还算顺利。
It's generally generally worked out okay.
是的。
Yeah.
今年我们的收入将达到约1400亿美元。
We'll have about 140,000,000,000 in revenue this year.
所以
So
是的。
Yeah.
还不错。
It's okay.
它会随着时间积累，对吧。
It it compounds over time, doesn't Yeah.
是的。
Yeah.
你知道，你从小处开始，不断积累，
You know, you start small and just keep adding and
就在那里。
there you
好了。
go.
事情就是这样的。
That's how it goes.
是的。
Yeah.
就这么简单。
It's just that easy.
为什么是德克萨斯？
Why Texas?
我觉得这是件重要的事。
Like I think this is an important thing.
我们在奥斯汀。
We're in Austin.
杰森住在这里，大卫·萨克斯现在也住在这里。
Jason lives here, David Saxe lives here now.
越来越多的人从加利福尼亚搬到奥斯汀。
More people are moving from California to Austin.
为什么是奥斯汀？
Why Austin?
为什么是德克萨斯？
Why Texas?
为什么在这里行得通？是变得更好了，还是本来就一直这样？
Why does it work here and is it getting better or is it just always worked?
你知道，得州长期以来一直保持着低税收、促进增长的环境，以及一种相对进步的商业氛围。如果你把得州经济与美国其他地区的经济相比，就会发现得州简直就是美国经济的升级版。现在，奥斯汀已经跻身美国十大城市之列。
You know, think Texas has had a, know, low tax pro growth environment for a long time and pro, you know, sort of progressive business climate and you know, if you sort of look at the the growth of the Texas economy relative to the rest of The United States without Texas, You know Texas just kind of looks like a better version of The US economy and you know you now you've got Austin is sort of just about in the top 10 cities in in The United States.
这样一来，美国十大城市中就有四个位于得州。
So you've got when that happens, you'll have four of the 10 largest cities in America in Texas.
美国每十个出生的孩子中，就有一个出生在得州。
One out of 10 children born in The United States born in Texas.
在得州上市的纽约证券交易所公司数量，比纽约或其他任何地方都多。
More New York Stock Exchange companies in Texas than in New York or anywhere else.
而且你知道，得克萨斯大学就在奥斯汀，我一直认为这里是许多本地公司的灵感源泉，当然也包括我们公司。
And you know, you've got the University of Texas here in Austin which I always think of as kind of the wellspring for a lot of the companies that are here, certainly ours.
而且这里有着悠久的创新、开拓精神和创业传统。
And you know, long history of of innovative pioneering spirit and entrepreneurship.
对我们来说，这里是个绝佳的地方。
And it's been a fantastic place for us.
我认为，这部分原因在于其他曾经辉煌的大城市发生了什么变化。
And part of this I think Freeburg and Michael is what's happened in the other great cities or what were once great cities.
我的家乡是纽约，我在洛杉矶待了十年，最近十二年则在湾区。
My hometown New York, I got to spend ten years in LA and the last twelve in The Bay Area.
那里发生的事情非常不美国化，而且相比起来正在放缓。
And what's happening there is incredibly un American, and they're decelerating when compared.
我认为这两个地方之间的差距或差异可能越来越大了。
I think maybe the gap maybe in the disparity from these two locations has gotten greater.
是的。
Yeah?
你看到越来越多的人说，生活在这里的奥斯汀，比我在纽约、洛杉矶或湾区的生活好得多。
And you're seeing a lot more people say, life there here in Austin seems a lot better than the life I'm living in New York, LA, or in the Bay Area.
对。
Yeah.
我认识了很多新朋友和邻居，他们都是搬来的，当然，如果你看一下人口迁移数据，德克萨斯州吸引了大量人口。
Well I've got a lot of new friends and neighbors, you know, that that have that have that have come and certainly, I mean, if if you look at the the the migration statistics, Texas has attracted an enormous number of people.
而且你看，当你对比这里的环境和其他地方的情况时，这里确实非常有吸引力。
And and look, I mean, when you when you when you look at the environment here and compare it to the other kind of situations that are going on, it's it's it's very attractive.
但你知道，这种情况已经持续很久了，所以对我们这些在这里待了很久的人来说，这并不是什么新鲜事。
But you know it's it's kind of been great for a long time so it's not really new news to us that have been here a while.
是的。
Yeah.
埃隆在这里建造超级工厂时有过很棒的经历。
Elon had a great experience when he was building the the Gigafactory over here.
在这里，你可以做很多事情。
They let you do stuff here.
对。
Yeah.
基本上，你知道的。
Basically, you know.
他们让他建成了工厂。
They let him build it.
他说这对他来说是一次难以置信的经历，因为在加州，他们不让他建造这些工厂。
Which he said was like an incredible experience for him because in California, they didn't let him build, you know these factories.
事实上，特斯拉在弗里蒙特的工厂原本是一座老旧的工厂，他成功地对其进行了改造。
And in fact, the Tesla factories that in Fremont was just an old ancient factory that he was able to retrofit.
所以，这里在数据中心方面也正在发生一些事情。
So there's something going on here as well with the data centers.
这实际上我觉得非常接近你们在戴尔所从事的工作。
And that's actually I think very close to what you're working on at Dell.
也许你可以谈谈德州正在兴起的数据中心热潮，而这一点可能很多人还没有注意到。
Maybe you could talk a little bit about the data center boom that's going on in Texas that maybe people aren't paying attention to.
当然可以。
Sure.
当然，很明显，AI基础设施正在大规模扩建，这需要大量的新建数据中心和电力。
Well there's you know, obviously been enormous build out of AI infrastructure and that requires lots of new data centers, lots of power.
德州在这方面相对于其他州具有巨大的优势。
Texas has an enormous advantage there relative to other states.
电力充足，土地广阔，而且你可以自由建设，对吧？
Lot of power, a lot of land and it's and and you can build stuff, right?
因此，特别是在德克萨斯州西部一些人口稀少的城市和小镇，出现了大规模的建设，这些地方对在荒无人烟之处建造数据中心没什么抵触，因为那里土地和电力资源丰富。
So there's there's been a massive build out particularly in some of the cities in towns in West Texas where there's not a lot of population and so they're not really too opposed to having data centers out in the middle of nowhere where there's land and power.
所以，是的，令牌的需求量巨大。
And so, yeah, I mean the demand for tokens is enormous.
你知道，我们不仅在德克萨斯州，还在全球范围内建设这些AI数据中心，这一领域的增长非常惊人。
You know, we've been building these AI data centers not just here in Texas but around the world and, you know, the growth in that has been tremendous.
我们推出了第一台H100服务器。
You know, we we introduced the the first h 100 server.
那正好是在ChatGPT发布前几周。
It was literally a couple weeks before ChatGPT was announced.
你知道，我们在这一领域的业务增长从最初的20亿美元，到100亿美元，再到250亿美元，今年预计将达500亿美元。
And, you know, the progression of our business in that area sort of gone from like 2,000,000,000 to 10,000,000,000 to 25,000,000,000 to this year it'll be like 50,000,000,000.
因此增长极为迅猛，当你思考这些模型所创造的东西时，计算领域已经发生了一次范式转变，对吧？
So tremendous growth and when you think about what these models are creating, there's this phase change that's happened in computing, right?
我们经历了六十年的计算型计算，如今有了能够思考并帮助我们思考的机器。
We had sixty years of calculating computing, now we have machines that are thinking and helping us think.
因此，对这种智能的需求非常大，你知道，这些模型已经非常出色了，但它们也是有史以来最差的，而且还在持续改进。
And so the demand for that kind of intelligence and you know the models are amazing but they're also the worst they'll ever be and they continue to improve.
所以我们看到的需求远远超过供应，这不仅发生在超大规模云服务商身上，也发生在4000家大型企业中，我们正在为它们建设这些戴尔AI工厂。
And so we just see a lot more demand than supply and it's happening not just in the hyperscalers and the cloud service providers, it's happening in 4,000 enterprises where we're building these Dell AI factories.
这在主权AI领域也在发生，比如帕兰提尔这样的公司，人们希望保护自己的数据，同时又能利用AI处理这些数据。
It's happening in Sovereign AI, you know, like with Palantir and people want to protect their data but also use AI on it.
他们希望将AI带到数据所在的地方。
They want to bring the AI to where their data is.
当这种趋势几年前刚开始时，我们面对的是一些非常先进的大型公司，比如《财富》100强企业，它们开始从我们这里购买AI服务器，并且知道自己在做什么，对吧？
And, you know, when this kind of started a few years ago, we had some really sophisticated large companies, think of like Fortune 100, and they started, you know, buying these AI servers from us and and they kind of knew what they were doing, right?
我们当时问：你们到底在做什么？
You know, and we said, what what are you doing?
它们正在自行构建模型，使用开源模型，运行这些模型，有些是算法交易员，或者机器学习的衍生应用，当然，由于这本身相当复杂，它们需要大量帮助。
And they they were they were kind of taking building their own models, they were taking open source models, they were running them, some of them were algorithmic traders or you know derivatives of machine learning and of course they needed a lot of help in doing that because it was sort of a complicated thing.
因此，大约两年前，我们推出了名为戴尔AI工厂的产品，如今我们已经部署了4000多个，这种模式正在企业中迅速普及。
So about two years ago we put together this product that we call the Dell AI Factory and now we've got 4,000 plus of these and it's kind of running rampant across enterprises.
你觉得这笔投资的回报周期是怎样的？
How do you think about the payback time on the investment that's being made?
政府出台了加速折旧政策，或者
The administration put in place this accelerated depreciation rule or the
实际上非常有帮助。
very helpful actually.
是的。
Yeah.
为了让大家更好地理解，假设你今年花了1000亿美元来建设数据中心和购买基础设施，那么你可以在今年全额抵扣这笔支出，对吧？
Just for folks to understand that a little bit like if you spend a $100,000,000,000 this year building data centers and buying infrastructure for those data centers, you get to write off a 100% of that this year Correct.
进行抵扣。
To deduct it.
你不需要缴税，或者只需缴纳少得多的税。
You don't pay taxes, you pay way much fewer taxes.
这项政策预计将持续十年，我想。
And that's in place for ten years, I think.
这是十年
That's a ten
的协议
year deal
加速投资。
accelerating the investment.
这种加速投资带来了多大帮助？相比之下，你们看到人们如何根据预期回报和时间周期来评估投资合理性？
How much is that helping versus how are you seeing folks rationalize the investment relative to the return they're gonna make and over what time scale?
这仍然是个大问题：资金真的到位了吗？超大规模客户是否开始出现？终端用户和终端场景是否在增长？我们是该观望等待，还是已经有人在投资后第一年就实现了20%的投入资本回报率？
This is still the big question, is the money really there, the hyperscalers, maybe they're starting to come up, end usage, end states, are we kind of hey, wait and see, we don't know yet or folks are getting 20% ROIC starting in year one after they've made the investment?
我可以告诉你们，在我们公司，我们确实看到了大量案例，其中投资回报率或生产效率的提升达到了20%甚至更高。
You know, I can tell you in our business, in our company, we definitely see plenty of use cases where the ROI or the improvement in productivity efficiency is 20% or greater.
投资后立刻就能达到这个水平。
Right away it gets there.
这可不是按个按钮就能直接获得20%的提升，对吧？
I it's not like you just hit a button and you get 20%, right?
在思考这些流程时需要付出努力，这一点值得稍作说明。
There's work required in thinking through the processes and it's worth a little bit describing that.
所以你知道，任何公司的流程、工具和技术都是在其创建时可用条件的产物。
So you know, when you have a a any company, its processes and tools and technology are a function of what was available at the time it created those things.
因此，你必须退一步思考：这些工具的改进趋势是什么？
And so what you sort of have to do is step back and say, alright, what's the trajectory of the improvement of the tools?
我们想要实现什么成果？现在让我们简化并标准化流程，整合所有工具和数据，然后再应用技术。
What outcome are we trying to create and now let's simplify and standardize the processes, get all the tools together, get all the data together and then apply the technology.
这真的必须以自上而下的方式来完成。
And this really has to be done in kind of a tops down way.
你不能在孤立的部门里随意进行，这些部门不会自发改善，而这通常意味着你要彻底改变整个组织的运作方式。
You can't sort of do it spontaneously in in silos are not going to spontaneously improve themselves and often that means that you're completely changing the way the organization works.
这就像一次全面的重新架构。
It's like a wholesale rearchitecture.
这是对公司运作方式的重新构想。我大约三年前向我们的团队描述过这一点：我们将在五年后面临一个新竞争对手，也就是从那时算起两年后——在我们所处的每个业务领域都是如此，但这个对手会更快、更创新、更成功、成本更低，并将我们挤出市场。
It's a reimagining of the way a company works and you know, I mean the way I described this to our team about three years ago is, you know, we were going to have a new competitor five years from now, that would be two years from now, you know, that was in every business that we're in except they were going to be faster and more innovative and more successful and lower cost and they were going to put us out of business.
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