埃隆·马斯克谈狗狗币、Optimus机器人、星链智能手机、与AI共同进化及西方世界为何在崩溃

我相信Optimus将成为人类有史以来创造的最伟大的产品。

I believe Optimus is gonna be the greatest product ever created by humanity.

埃隆·马斯克和他的x AI初创公司已经建造了世界上最大、最强大的人工智能训练超级计算机。据我所知，世界上只有一个人能做到这一点，你知道的。

Elon Musk and his x AI startup have built the largest and most powerful artificial intelligence training supercomputer in the world. As far as I know, there's only one person in the world who could do that, you know.

这是一场史诗级的军备竞赛。他是个大思想家。

This is an arms race of epic proportions. He's a big thinker.

你们前几天和Doge团队一起上了福克斯新闻。你们看到埃隆在他们说话时点头微笑，笑得合不拢嘴。怎么了？他很自豪。

You guys went on Fox the other day with the Doge team. You saw Elon's face nodding while they were speaking with a grin ear to ear. What? He was proud.

他确实很自豪。

He is proud.

X AI已经通过全股票交易收购了x。

X AI has acquired x in an all stock transaction.

特斯拉的首批机器人出租车正式上路了。

Tesla's first robo taxis are officially on the road.

公司董事会为CEO提出了一个新的薪酬方案，可能支付他约一万亿美元的股票。

The company's board proposed a new compensation package for the CEO that could pay him just about a trillion dollars in stock.

如果他没有达到业绩指标，就什么也得不到。

He gets nothing if he doesn't hit the numbers.

SpaceX将以约170亿美元的价格从EchoStar购买其Starlink卫星网络的无线频谱许可证。三，

SpaceX will buy wireless spectrum licenses from EchoStar for its Starlink satellite network for about $17,000,000,000. Three,

二，一。

two, one.

有一个浮标。

There's a buoy.

有一次坠毁。怎么

There's a crash down. How

你有时间吗？这个我我我从来都不理解你。

do you have time? This I I I never understand you.

是的。嗯，我确实工作

Yeah. Well, I do work a

很多。女士们

lot. Ladies

和先生们，请欢迎埃隆·马斯克。

and gentlemen, please welcome Elon Musk.

好的。好的。

Alright. Alright.

你在哪里？

Where are you?

帕洛阿尔托。

Palo Alto.

你在帕洛阿尔托而不是华盛顿特区。

You're in Palo Alto and not Washington, DC.

我在帕洛阿尔托的全球工程总部。

I'm I'm at Global Engineering headquarters in Palo Alto.

是啊。所以不再去华盛顿特区了。你回来工作了。你专注了。

Yeah. So no more Washington DC. You're back at work. You're focused.

是吗？是啊。自五月以来就没去过DC了。

Yeah? Yeah. Haven't been to DC since May.

好的。

Okay.

那真是一段了不起的支线任务。

That was a that was a hell of a side quest.

那是个不错的支线。

That was a good side.

在华盛顿特区的时光有什么收获吗？

Any lessons from your time in Washington DC?

政府基本上是无可救药的。

The government is basically unfixable.

埃隆，哦 哦 只有

Elon, o o only

我引用大卫在这方面的高尚努力，政府里有优秀人才是好事。但归根结底，如果你看看我们高得离谱的国债，利息支出已经超过了国防部——抱歉，是超过了更多部门的预算。而且还在持续上升。所以如果人工智能和机器人不能解决我们的国债问题，我们就完蛋了。

I quote David's noble efforts in this it's good to it's good to have talented people in the administration. But at the end of the day, if you look at our national debt, which is insanely high, the interest payments exceed the defense department I guess, sorry, more department budget. And they keep rising. So if AI and robots don't solve our national debt, we're we're toast.

这正好是个很好的过渡。我认为Optimus将成为人类历史上最伟大的产品。进展如何？你有多少精力专门投入在Optimus上？时间表是怎样的？我想你们现在大概是第三版，也许是第四版。

Which is a great segue. Optimus is, I think, gonna be the greatest product in the history of humanity. What's the progress like and how much of your how many of your cycles are going specifically to Optimus? What's the timeline? I think you're on version three, maybe four.

告诉我们一切。

Tell us everything.

嗯，是啊。不行。全部说完要花很长时间。

Well, yeah. No. Everything would take a long time.

我们有时间。

We've got time.

我们正在完成Optimus第三代的设计，那将是一款非常卓越的机器人。它将具备人类的手工灵活性，意味着拥有非常复杂的手部结构。一个能够导航和理解现实的AI大脑，并且我们将实现大规模生产。这三样正是目前缺失的关键要素。你看其他任何机器人公司，他们都缺少这三样东西。

We're we're finalizing the design of Optimus version three, and that that really is gonna be a very remarkable robot. It will have the, essentially, the manual dexterity of a human, so meaning a very complex hand. An AI mind that can navigate and comprehend reality, and we made in very high volume. Those are the three things that are missing. Like, if you see any other robotics company, they're missing those three things.

这三样确实是最难的部分。实际上，我现在投入在Optimus上的精力可能超过任何其他单一项目。这涉及到解决现实世界的AI问题，Optimus的所有机电问题，以及它的供应链和生产挑战。因为人形机器人根本没有现成的供应链，我们必须从零开始重建，这需要进行大量的垂直整合。

Those are the three really hard things. And I I spent actually at this point it it might be more of my mental cycles than anything anything else, any other single thing on Optimus. That's that's solving for real world AI, all of the electromechanical issues of Optimus, the the supply chain and production challenges of it. Because we have there there is no supply chain that exists for humanoid robots. So it has to be we have to recreate it from scratch and which requires doing a lot of vertical integration.

Optimus中的所有执行器都无法从现有供应链获得。但我认为可以准确地说，如果成功，Optimus将成为有史以来最大的产品。

None of the actuators in Optimus are available from an existing supply chain. So but I I I think it is accurate to say that if successful, Optimus will be the biggest product ever.

关于规模化后的成本，2万、3万、4万美元一个机器人，你认为第一批产品的成本会是多少？还有，我们什么时候能在农场里买到一个来干活？

And the cost of it at scale, $20.30, $40,000 a robot, what what do you think the first wave of them will cost? And, yeah, when will we be able to buy one to work on the ranch?

我认为一旦达到年产百万台的规模，边际生产成本可能在2万美元左右。这取决于你在机器人AI芯片上的投入多少。同时需要在执行器方面实现很多效率提升。每只手臂有26个执行器，相当于26个电机、变速箱和功率电子器件。

I think that the the marginal cost of production, once you hit a million units per year, is probably around the $20,000 range. It it it sort of depends on how much you spend on the AI chip in the in the robot. And you need to achieve a lot of efficiencies in the actuators. There are 26 actuators per arm. Like, 26 electric like motors, gearboxes, and power electronics.

不过AI芯片会相当昂贵，可能占到物料成本的5千到6千美元，甚至更多。但在年产百万台的规模下，生产成本大概在2万美元左右，也许2万5千美元这样。价格将根据需求情况而定。

So so but but the the the AI chip will be pretty expensive. Like, that that might be, like, $5.05 or $6,000 of the of the bill of materials, maybe more. And but but so I but I think at volume, at a million units a year, the the production cost is probably in the order of $20,000, maybe 25, something like that. And price will be as a function of demand.

埃隆，你能向大家解释一下为什么手部的设计如此重要，为什么执行器设计如此独特，为什么这么困难，为什么没人制造，以及为什么必须从这里开始才能正确构建机器人的其余部分？

Elon, can you maybe explain to everybody why the hand is so important to get right and why, you know, the actuator design is so unique and, you know, why it's so difficult, why nobody makes it, and why you have to start there almost to build the rest of the the robot properly?

事实证明，人类的手已经进化成一种极其复杂的机器，令人难以置信。你的手实际上是一件非凡的东西。仔细看看你的手，想想你能用手做的所有事情，这真的很多。

Well, it turns out human hands are incredibly that they've evolved to this to be this incredibly sophisticated machine. Like, your hand is an an actually, a remarkable thing. It's look look closely at your hands and and think of all the things you can do with your hands, which is a lot.

想想我能做的很多事情。是的。

Think of many I things. Yeah.

我刚才在想一些事情。

I was just thinking about something.

你知道，你的手是非常多功能的工具。

You know, your hands are very versatile instrument.

是的。你可以用它击掌。

Yeah. You can give them a high five.

非常多才多艺。你知道，你可以挥棒球棒，可以穿针引线，可以弹钢琴拉小提琴，甚至可以拆卸或组装汽车。手是极其多功能的工具。而且手的大部分肌肉实际上都在前臂。所以你的手有点像木偶。

Very versatile. You know, you you you can swing a baseball bat, you can thread needles, you you put thread in a needle, you can play the piano with violin, You know, you could disassemble or assemble a car. The hands are incredibly versatile instruments. And most of the muscles of of of the hand are are actually in the forearm. So your your hand is kinda like a like a like a like a puppet.

就像，它基本上就是个木偶。肌肉来自前臂，它们拉动肌腱，而人类肌腱的设计或进化也非常出色。所以你有了这个肌腱网络。我认为人类的手大约有27或28个自由度，取决于你怎么计算，这真是太神奇了。

Like, it's mostly a puppet. The muscle the muscles are coming from the forearm and they're pulling the tendons, which are, you know also human tendon designs or human tendon evolution is incredibly good. So you've you've got this web of tendons. You've you've you've got I think I think the human hand is something like depending on how you count it 27 or 28 degrees of freedom per, you know, in in the hand. It's it's amazing.

所以为了创造一个能够成为通用人形机器人的机器人，你必须解决手部问题。

So in order to create a robot that can be a generalized humanoid, you you must solve the hand the hands problem.

是的。我们有

Yeah. We had

我们已经有了，它有手。膝盖手。

we had already it's got hands. Knees hands.

那么这是否就像你最初建造特斯拉时那样，供应链不存在，现在你必须出去寻找合作伙伴，并且，你知道，建立所有这些垂直整合，获得支持。这是否真的就像根本找不到任何东西，而你将不得不从头建立所有这些？

And so is it like when you were first building Tesla where the supply chain doesn't exist and now you have to go out and find folks to work with and, you know, build all this vertical integration, get support. Is it is it literally like it's just nowhere to be found and you're gonna have to build all of this stuff up?

是的。我们我们我们实际上无法用任何金额购买到执行器。组装件不存在。尽管市面上有成千上万种不同尺寸和形状的电动机。我们不得不从零开始设计每一个电动机、变速箱和控制电子设备，基本上是从物理第一原理出发。

Yes. We we we could not actually buy the actuators for any amount of money. The assembly didn't exist. Even though there are ten, twenty thousand electric motors out there of various sizes and shapes. We've had to design every electric motor gearbox and the controlling electronics from scratch, basically from physics first principles.

好消息是你在过去几十年里积累了丰富的工厂经验。所以是的。这相比Cybertruck、Model Y有多大的挑战性？

The good news is you've got a lot of experience with factories over the last couple of decades. So Yeah. How challenging is this versus Cybertruck, Model y

Model X。

Model x.

超级工厂，你知道的，那个那个对。被称为Model X的法贝热彩蛋。

Gigafactory, you know, the the yeah. The Faberge egg known as the Model x.

是的。没错。它比任何那些东西都要热。

Yeah. Right. It's hotter than any any of those things.

好的。

Okay.

是的。热得多？明显更热。是的。

Yeah. Much hotter? Significantly. Yeah.

星舰？比星舰更难？不。不是更热。星舰更热。

Starship? Harder than Starship? No. Not hotter. Starship's hotter.

好的。

Okay.

所以介于Model X和星舰之间。

So somewhere between a Model X and a Starship.

是的。哪个更难？硬件还是软件？

Yeah. Is it is the what's harder? The hardware or the software?

目前我们正在努力解决硬件的最终设计问题。就像我说的，主要难点在于手部。并不是要轻视机器人的其他部分，其他部分也很重要。但包括前臂在内的手部设计占据了整个机器人工程难度的大部分。

Right now, we're struggling with the final design of the hardware. Like I said, it's really primarily the hand. Not to just just dismiss the rest of the robot. The rest of it is also important. But but the hands are the hands inclusive of the forearm are a majority of the engineering difficulty of the entire robot.

那么假设你们克服了硬件挑战。基于LLMs领域的所有进展，你们能获得多少现成的优势？消费者是否能够直接与机器人互动，通过对话让它执行任务，它能理解并

And then let let's assume you get past the hardware challenges. How much do you sort of get for free based on all the progress that's happening with LLMs? Will, you know, will consumers just be able to interact with this, talk to the robot, ask them to do things, it'll understand and sort of

哦，是的。

Oh, yeah.

是的。没问题。

Yeah. No problem.

我注意到你在网上花了很多时间陪安妮。不

You're spending a lot of time with Annie, I noticed online. Not

没那么久。可能我对Moni Grunk的想象有点过头了，但是

not that long. Maybe I went a little over the top for Moni Grunk imagine, but

好吧，但说真的，那些角色和这些机器人看起来似乎是，你知道，可能它们

Well, but in all seriousness, those characters and these robots that seems to be, you know, like maybe they

我想你可以获得安妮的实体化身。

You could get the embodiments of Annie, I suppose.

是的。为什么为什么选择人类形态，埃隆？你可以制造出可能比人类更好，或者比人类更简单来完成特定任务的东西，甚至可能比人类能做更多事情。你是怎么决定把它做得和人类一模一样的？

Yeah. Why why the human form factor, Elon? You could make something that's maybe better than a human or maybe simpler than a human to do specific tasks and maybe better than a human to do more things than a human can do. How do you decide to make it just like a human?

嗯，如果你想做所有人类能做的事情，事实证明你需要一个人形机器人。所以如果你只想做一部分，那就容易多了。但事实证明，人类进化成我们现在拥有的形态和能力是有充分理由的。实际上，拥有五个，你知道，四根手指和一个拇指是有价值的。

Well, if you wanted to do all the things that a human can do, it turns out you need a humanoid robot. So if you wanted to do a subset, that's much easier. But turns out humans evolved to this the shape and capabilities that we we we have. It it for for good reasons. There actually is there is like, there's value to having five, you know, four fingers in the thumb.

甚至小指实际上也相当有用。脚趾就更值得怀疑了，但是手指

And even the pinky actually is is quite useful. Toes are much more question mark, but but the fingers

嗯，而且人类也设计了这个世界。所以我们是为自己设计的。完全正确。如果你能制造一个人形机器人，它将立即与我们为人类建造的世界向后兼容。

Well, also humans humans have designed the world as well. So we designed it for us. For us. Exactly. If you could make a humanoid robot, it'll be immediately backwards compatible with what we've built the world for.

完全正确。埃隆，机器人还有另一个部分。所以，有大型语言模型，有手部的驱动装置，但还有运行它的硅芯片。还有，你知道，Dojo，我想你在X上发布了AI五和AI六，看起来你对硅芯片层的发展方向也非常兴奋。你能跟我们说说这个吗？那是什么？我们在这里建造什么？

Excisely. Elon, there's another there's another part of the robot. So, there's the LLMs, there's the actuation in the hands, but also there's the the silicon that runs it. And there was, you know, Dojo, I think you you posted on x AI five and AI six and it just seemed like you were incredibly excited about the direction in which the silicon layer was also going. Can you tell us about that and what that is and what what what what are we what are we building here?

正在构建什么？它是世界上现有一切的补充吗？还是一个潜在的长期竞争对手？它究竟是什么？

What is being built? Is it a complement to everything that exists in the world? Is it a potential long term competitor? What is it?

是的。在特斯拉，我们基本上有两个不同的芯片项目。一个是Dojo，用于训练端；另一个是我们称之为AI 4的推理芯片。AI 4目前已在所有车辆中出货，我们正在完成AI 5的设计，这将是从AI 4的巨大飞跃。按某些指标衡量，AI 5的改进将是AI 4的40倍。

Yeah. So at at Tesla we basically had two different chip programs. One dojo and one dojo on the training side and then what we call, you know, AI four, which is our inference chip. The AI force is currently shipping in all vehicles, and we're finalizing the design of AI five, which will be an immense jump from AI four. By some metrics, the improvement in AI five will be 40 times better than AI four.

哇，所以是40%，40倍。这是因为我们在AI软件和AI硬件上以非常精细的级别紧密合作。所以我们确切知道限制因素在哪里。实际上，AI硬件和软件团队正在共同设计芯片。

Wow. So 40%, 40 times. And and this is because we work so closely at a very fine grade level on the AI software and the AI hardware. So we know exactly where the limiting factors are. And and and so effectively the AI hardware and software teams are co designing the chip.

所以硅芯片有40倍的改进，我想在座各位观众体验到的，是否意味着FSD质量和作为特斯拉驾驶员体验到的安全性，以及机器人的质量几乎有了数量级的提升？当你们将其推出并投入生产时，这些改进具体体现在哪些方面？

So 40 x improvement in the silicon, I think then as it as everybody here in the audience experiences it, is that just an almost like an order of magnitude increase in the quality of FST and the safety that you experience as a Tesla driver and then the quality of the robot? Like, where does it all manifest when you when you, you know, bring it up and actually get it into production?

是的。准确地说，40倍是指相比AI 4运行softmax操作时的最差限制。我们目前需要在仿真模式下用大约40步来运行softmax，而在AI 5中，只需几步就能原生完成。AI 5还能轻松处理混合精度模型，它会动态处理混合精度。

Yeah. To be precise, the 40 x is on if you say, like, compared to the worst limitation on AI four, which is running the softmax operation Yeah. We currently have to run softmax in around 40 steps in emulation mode, whereas that'll be just be done in a few steps natively in AI five. AI five triple also be easily handled mixed precision models. So you don't have it'll dynamically handle mixed precision.

AI 5在很多技术方面会做得更好。就名义原始计算能力而言，计算能力提高了8倍，内存增加了约9倍，内存带宽大约提高了5倍。但由于我们解决了AI 4中的一些核心限制，这8倍的计算改进再乘以另一个5倍的改进，这是因为在非常精细的硅级别上优化了AI 4中目前不够理想的部分，这就是40倍改进的来源。

There's a bunch of sort of technical stuff that AI five will do a lot better. In terms of of nominal sort of raw compute, it's it's eight times more compute, about nine times more memory, roughly five times more memory bandwidth. So but because we're addressing some core limitations in AI four, you multiply that by that that eight x compute improvement by another five x improvement because of of optimization at a at a at a very fine grain silicon level of things that are currently suboptimal in AI four. That's where you get the 40 x improvement.

你刚才...继续说吧。

You had oh, keep going.

继续讲。那么现在可以说，我我我对目前车载的AI四芯片充满信心，它们将实现至少比人类驾驶安全2到3倍，甚至可能10倍的自驾安全性。为此即将发布的软件将在未来几个月内推出。所以版本14将是自版本12以来特斯拉软件的最大升级。我们正在将参数数量提升一个数量级。

Keep going. So now that said, I I I am confident that the current chips, AI AI four chips that are in the cars will achieve self driving safety that is at least two to three times that of of human and and maybe even 10x. And the software that will be released for that is is coming out over the next few months. So version 14 will be the biggest upgrade in Tesla software since version 12. We are increasing the parameter count by an order of magnitude.

这里这里这里使用了大量强化学习。我们我们这里这里有一种，你可以把AI看作是一种压缩现实的方式。而而其中一些压缩步骤，我们之前丢失信息太多，我们解决了这些压缩步骤中的信息丢失问题。所以这些都是即将推出的软件更新。就是这些更新。

The there's there's there's a lot of reinforcement learning that's been used. There's we we there there there's a like, you can think of AI sort of as a way of compressing reality. And and some of those compression steps, we were too lossy, and and we addressed the lossiness in the compression steps. So these are all software updates that'll that'll go out. So just over there updates.

到今年年底，你的车会感觉像是有知觉一样。

Your car is going to feel like it is sentient by the end of the year.

是的。说实话，现在已经有这种感觉了。我在行业报道中看到你们花了大约170亿美元购买了一些频谱，是的。这些零花钱是为了让你们的卫星和星链网络能够直接与手机连接。一两年后这会是什么样子？

Yeah. It feels that way already, to be honest. I saw in the trades that you spent about $17,000,000,000 on some spectrum and yeah. That So some couch change to enable your satellites and the Starlink network to connect directly with phones. What will that look like in a year or two?

我们会取消Verizon账户，只扩展我们的星链账户吗？谢谢。我们有点希望这样，因为Verizon有点烂。

Are we going to drop our Verizon account and just expand our Starlink account? Thank you. We're kinda hoping because Verizon kinda sucks.

你们你们你们有多少人想要星链手机？

How how how many of you want a Starlink phone?

谁想要星链手机？

Who wants a Starlink phone?

酷。技术上来说，我知道你看不到，但这是针对所有人的。

Cool. Is it is it technically I know you can't see it, but it's everyone.

是的。技术上没问题。酷。

Yeah. Tech alright. Cool.

所以这是一个长期的项目。它将允许SpaceX直接从卫星向手机提供高带宽连接。但手机需要进行硬件更改。由于当前手机不支持这些频段，芯片组需要修改以添加这些频段，这大概需要两年时间框架。所以能够使用所获得频谱的手机大约在两年后开始出货。

So this is a kind of a long term thing. It it it will allow SpaceX to deliver high bandwidth connectivity directly from the satellites to the phones. But there are hardware changes that need to happen in the phone. So the since these frequencies are not supported in current phones, they the chipset has to be modified to add these frequencies, and that probably is a two year time frame. So the phones that are able to use the spectrum that was acquired probably start shipping in around two years.

然后我们还需要建造将在这些频段上进行通信的卫星。所以我们正在并行建造卫星，并与手机制造商合作将这些频段添加到手机中。然后卫星和手机将能很好地握手以实现高带宽连接。但最终效果是，你应该能在手机上任何地方观看视频。

And and then we also need to build the satellites that are gonna communicate on those frequencies. So in parallel, we're building the satellites and working with the handset makers to add these frequencies to the phones. And then the the satellites and the phones will then handshake very well to achieve high bandwidth connectivity. But the the net effect is that you should be able to watch videos anywhere on your phone.

这会很疯狂。

It's going be crazy.

这些频段，它们能在室内建筑物内工作吗？你知道，就像你手机现在这样？好的。

And what do these do these frequencies, would they work indoors inside buildings? You know, like like your phone currently does? Okay.

那么你将能够拥有

And so will you be able to have

基本上，如果你在一栋有厚金属屋顶的建筑里，那就不行。但是

basically If like you're you're if you're in a building with a with a like a thick metal roof, then no. But

不行。同样类型的

No. The same the same types of

是的。普通的住宅。是的。

of Yeah. Normal normal homes. Yes.

是的。埃隆，你的愿景是不是这样：我们不再需要AT&T这样的账户，也不用在去英国或印度时办理漫游。而是可以直接与星链达成一项全球通用的协议——虽然现在还不能实现，但最终目标是让它在全世界任何地方都能使用？

Yes. Elon, is your vision for this that instead of, you know, having an AT and T account or and then roaming when you're in The UK or you're in India. It's just we could have one direct deal with Starlink. It works all over the world eventually, not today, but at some point. Is that the end goal?

基本上，我们不再需要区域运营商。我们有一个全球运营商，那就是你们。

That basically, we don't need a Yeah. Regional carrier. We have a global carrier and that would be you.

那将是其中一个选择。需要明确的是，我们并不打算让其他运营商倒闭。它们仍然会存在，因为它们拥有大量频谱。但是，是的，你应该能够拥有一个星链账户，就像拥有AT&T、T-Mobile或Verizon那样。你可以通过星链账户，在家中使用星链天线和Wi-Fi，同时在手机上也能使用。

That that would be one of the options. To be clear, we're not we're not gonna put the other carriers out of business. They're still gonna be around because they they own a lot of spectrum. So there's but but, yes, you'll you should be able to have a Starlink like you have like you have an AT and T or T Mobile or Verizon or whatever. You should go you you could have a a, you know, account with Starlink that works with your, you know, Starlink antenna at home with your Wi Fi as well as on your phone.

而且，是的，这将是一个全面的解决方案，既满足家庭高带宽需求，也满足手机直连的高带宽需求。

And, yeah, it would be a comprehensive solution for high bandwidth at home and for high bandwidth direct to cell.

你们能否收购一些运营商来获得更多频谱？也许收购Verizon？

Could you buy some carriers to have more spectrum? Maybe buy Verizon?

并非不可能。假设如果如果这种情况可能发生。

Not out of the question. Suppose if if if that may happen.

让我们谈谈让我们谈谈星舰。你们刚刚完成了一次看起来非常出色的发射，它距离可预测并在商业环境中准备就绪还有多远？

Let's talk about let's talk about Starship. You just had a really what appeared to be a phenomenal launch, how close is it to, you know, being predictable and ready to go in a commercial setting?

我我我认为我们明年将回收飞船。我们还有一次星链版本二堆栈的发射。只剩下一个版本二设计的助推器和飞船。之后就是版本三，这是一个巨大的升级，因为它配备了猛禽三发动机，火箭的几乎所有部分在版本三中都发生了变化。所以版本三可能会有些初期的磨合问题，因为它是一个彻底的重新设计，但它能够以完全可重复使用的方式将超过100吨载荷送入轨道。

I I I think we will recover the ship next year. We've got one more launch of the Starlink version two stack. There's only one one booster and ship left that's in the version two design. And then thereafter, it's it's version three, which is a gigantic upgrade because that's got Raptor three, and pretty much everything changes on the rocket with version three. So version three, you know, might have some initial teething pains because it's such a radical redesign, but it's it's capable of over a 100 tons to orbit fully reusable.

而且我认为除非遇到除非遇到一些非常重大的挫折，SpaceX将在明年展示完全可重复使用性，同时捕获助推器和飞船，并能够向有用轨道运送超过100吨的载荷。

And I think it's I think I think unless we have unless we have some very major setbacks, SpaceX will demonstrate full reusability next year, catching both the booster and the ship, and being able to deliver over a 100 tons to a useful orbit.

目前世界上最好的火箭在太空运载吨位方面能达到什么水平？

What does the best rocket in the world do now in terms of tonnage to space?

嗯，就商业火箭而言，有有猎鹰重型火箭

Well, in terms of sort of commercial rockets, there's there's Falcon Heavy

是的。

Yeah.

通过侧助推器回收利用，我们将实现约40吨的运载能力。

Which we'll do in with with side booster reuse, we'll do about 40 tons.

所以这是五倍

So this is five times

更大。是的。

bigger. Yeah.

嗯，是两倍半大。是的。但星舰将实现完全可重复使用，完全的可复用性。

Well, two and a half times bigger in Yeah. But but Starsha would be full reuse full reusability.

明白了。好的。

Got it. Okay.

嘿，所以所有部件都能回收。

Hey So everything comes back.

埃隆，在爆炸发生后，那次失败的发射之后，有很多...哪一次？抱歉？哪次失败的？哦，最近的那次。最近的那次哦。

Elon, after after the explosion that happened with the the the failed launch, There was a lot of Which one? Sorry? Which failed one? Oh, the more recent one. The more recent Oh.

关于星舰那次大爆炸。是的。而且有很多声明说会有环境、FAA以及所有其他方面的审查。但你们返回发射台的速度却惊人地快。你们是怎么这么快就恢复的？

With the Starship The big boom. Yeah. And and there there's a lot of proclamations that there's gonna be environmental and FAA and all these other sorts. The recovery back to the launch pad again was incredibly fast. How did you get back so fast?

不仅仅是技术和工作层面，还包括监管审批方面，因为他们说会有各种问题和审查等等。你们是怎么做到的？

Not just technically and work wise, but just like regulatory clearance wise because they said there were gonna be all these questions and reviews and so on. How did how did you guys manage that?

嗯，确实有很多问题和审查。我们都一一解决了，这要归功于SpaceX团队。他们工作非常努力，完成了下一个飞船助推器的测试、上架并发射，SpaceX团队功不可没。为他们能够如此出色地完成恢复工作感到非常自豪。我的意思是，打造一个完全可重复使用的轨道火箭是有史以来最棘手的工程问题之一。

Well, there were a lot of questions and reviews. We got through them all, and credit to the SpaceX team. They worked incredibly hard and they got the next shipment booster tested and on the pad and and flown and huge credit to the SpaceX team. Very proud of them for doing doing such a job a a great job recovering. I mean, it's it's creating a fully reusable orbital rocket is one of the hottest engineering problems ever.

这无疑是有史以来最困难的工程项目之一，至少是名列前茅的。所以，这是SpaceX从一开始，从2002年2月就设定的目标。而现在，23年过去了。这是一段漫长的旅程。

It's certainly, you know, a candidate for most difficult engineering project ever. You know, it's on the podium at least. So it's a that that that's been the goal of SpaceX from the beginning, from 02/2002. And here we are twenty three years later. So it's it's a long journey.

而且凭借超级人才，我认为这是迄今为止集结的最有才华的一群火箭工程师。我们最终，我认为明年，我们将能够实现完全可重复使用。

And with with a super talent like, by far the I think the most talented group of rocket engineers that's ever been assembled. And and we're finally next year, I think we'll be able to achieve full reusability.

埃隆，在实现完全可重复使用之前，你现在关注的主要技术障碍是什么？是否存在一些让你几乎痴迷于解决的重大难题？还是更多的是处理一系列学习成果并将其整合到下一次发射中？

Elon, what are the big technical blockers that you're focused on there between now and that full reusability? Are there some showstoppers where you're just kind of literally just obsessing over trying to figure out still? Or is it more about getting through a side of a laundry list of your learnings and just integrating it into the next launch?

嗯，关于飞船的完全可重复使用性，隔热罩方面还有很多工作要做。目前还没有人制造出完全可重复使用的轨道隔热罩。比如，航天飞机的隔热罩每次飞行后都需要经过九个月的维修。

Well, that the for for full reusability of the ship, there's still a lot of work that remains on the heat shield. So no one's ever made a fully reusable orbital heat shield. Like, the shuttle heat shield had to go through nine months of repair after every flight.

没错。

Right.

所以确实没有人制造过完全可重复使用的轨道隔热罩。

So no no one has ever made a fully reusable orbital heat shield.

这是个材料科学问题，还是工程问题，或者两者兼有？

And is that a material science problem or is that an engineering problem or both?

是的。我的意思是，这是个材料科学与工程的问题。但我们实际上是在研究基础物理。再次强调，从物理第一性原理出发，试图找出如何制造出既能承受高温、重量又轻、又不会将热量传导到主飞船的东西。

Yeah. I mean, it's a material science engineering problem. So it's but we really are looking at the fundamental physics here. Again, physics first principles and trying to figure out how do we make something that is it, you know, it can withstand the heat, is very light, doesn't transmit the heat to the the primary ship. Yeah.

主体结构。而且

Primary structure. And

但其完整性是

But whose integrity is

瓦片保持完好。它们不会开裂。

tiles stay on. They don't crack.

是的。

Yeah.

然后当你上升时，如果遇到下雨，你知道，这些瓦片不会在雨中溶解。存在很多不同的问题。而且你真的需要知道这些瓦片是正常工作的。你不能，你知道，进行这种费力的检查。所以确实需要确保，你知道，这数万块瓦片全部正常工作，不需要逐一翻新或检查。

And then as you ascend, if you hit some rain, you know, the tiles don't dissolve in rain. There's there's a lot of different issues. And and then you really need to know that these tiles are working. You you can't, you know, go through this laborious inspection. So it really needs to be we're you know, these these tens of thousands of tiles all work and don't need to be refurbished or checked one by one.

航天飞机就是这种情况。

That was the case with the shuttle.

我们现在可以切换话题吗？我想，我的意思是，你刚才还谈了特斯拉，然后转到SpaceX。是的。现在我想问你一些关于Grok和xAI的问题。你能给我们更新一下进展吗？

Can we maybe switch now? I think, I mean, who who else were you talking about Tesla, then you go to SpaceX. Yeah. Now I'd I'd like to ask you some questions about Grok and x AI. You wanna just give us an update?

我觉得你大致谈到了下一代模型的进展，并说了一些令人难以置信的事情。我仍然认为人们还没有真正理解，也就是，将会进行下一次训练运行，你预计，你知道，不是从常见的网络和Common Crawl开始，而是预计使用大量合成数据。请告诉我们Grok的进化过程如何，这项创新是什么，以及为什么它如此重要。

I think you you kind of talked about where the next gen model is and you said something incredible. I still don't think people really understand it which is, you know, there's gonna be a next training run where you expect, you know, not to start from the, you know, common web and common crawl where you expected an enormous amount of synthetic data. Just tell us about how the evolution of Grok is going and this innovation and why it's so important.

是的。所以我们正在运行大量使用推理计算和推理能力来查看所有源数据，这实际上是人类知识的宝库。然后思考每一条信息，补充缺失的内容，纠正错误，并从训练数据中去除虚假信息。这就像以维基百科为例，但这实际上适用于书籍、PDF、网站等所有形式的信息。Grok正在使用大量的推理计算。

Yeah. So we're we're running a lot of using a lot of of inference compute and and reasoning to look at all of the source data, which is really the the corpus of human knowledge. And then thinking about each piece of information and then adding adding what's missing and correcting correcting mistakes and removing falsehoods from this from that training data. So it's it's it's like, if you take the Wikipedia as an example, but this really applies to to books, PDFs, the websites, every form of information. The Grok is using heavy amounts of inference compute.

比如说，以维基百科页面为例，判断其中哪些内容真实、部分真实、虚假或缺失？然后重写页面以纠正虚假信息，修正半真半假的陈述，并补充缺失的背景。

Let's say, to look at, as an example, a Wikipedia page and say, what is true, partially true, or false, or missing in this page? Now rewrite the page to ink to correct the remove the falsehoods, correct the half truths, and add the missing context.

埃隆，顺便问一下，你能直接发布这个吗？我们能创建一个类似'Grok百科'的东西吗？我的意思是，这将会——

Elon, by the way, could you just publish that? Could we create like a Grokkopedia? I mean, that would

特别是针对我们的个人简介页面，那些简直一团糟。

be Especially for our bio pages, which are a disaster.

维基百科偏见严重，这就像一场持续不断的战争。要知道，就算某个错误在五分钟后被修正，也会有一大批人试图——我的意思是，它已经变得极度党派化，到处都是高度激进的监督者。如果能修复维基百科作为真相来源的问题，直接发布修正版本让全世界看到将会很棒。

Wikipedia is so biased and it's it's a constant war. Know, if something gets corrected five minutes later, there'll be an army of people trying to I mean, it's become hyper partisan and there's Hyper police activists all over it. If you do fix, for example, Wikipedia as a source of truth, it'd be great to publish that just so the world has it.

好的。我会和你讨论这个。也会和团队商量，比如创建'Grok百科'之类的。这就是'Grok百科'版本。

Alright. I'll talk talk to you about that. So talk to the team about that, like, a Grokfedia or whatever. This here's the Grokfedia version.

会很有意思。是的。

It'd be interesting. Yeah.

然后就把它发布出去供大家使用。

And then just have it out there for please.

关于这里的人们喜欢它的程度。在训练Grok五方面，你们正在Colossus和Memphis扩展超级集群。现在Colossus也能做到了。

Where in terms of people here like it. In terms of training Grok five, you're you're scaling up your super cluster in Colossus and and Memphis. Can Colossus too now.

是的。但在那里我们

Yeah. But there we

还有第二个。

have a second one.

是的。能否给我们更新一下进展？另外作为其中的一部分，我们在扩展定律方面处于什么阶段？如果扩展更大的集群，是否能获得更强大的人工智能模型？是否存在收益递减点？

Yeah. Could could you give us an update on that? And then also as part of that, where are we in the scaling laws? If you scale a bigger cluster, do you get a more powerful AI model? Is there a point of diminishing returns?

或者比如，如果你投入两倍的计算资源，模型性能会提升10%还是100%？这是对数线性的吗？我想问的是，你认为硬件扩展还有多少潜力可挖？

Or like how much more compute if you throw twice as much compute at it, do you get a 10% better model? Do you get a 100% better model? Like, is it log linear? What what I guess, how much more juice is there left in scaling hardware do you think?

我认为计算量与智能提升之间存在天然的对数函数关系。打个比方，比如10倍的计算量会使智能翻倍。这可能是一个粗略的经验法则。但要知道，这意味着从100智商到200智商，仍然是相当重大的进步。

I think I think there's a natural logarithmic function associated with the amount of compute. So then, like, say for argument's sake, like, 10 x more compute will double the intelligence. Maybe that's that that might be a rough rule of thumb. But, you know, that still means that, you know, you go from 100 IQ to 200 IQ. It's still a pretty pretty big deal.

所以我认为我们将看到智能持续扩展，直到利用太阳系大部分能量进行计算，最终甚至利用银河系的大部分能量。达到卡尔达肖夫二级、三级规模的计算。因此我希望大家不要将人工智能视为某个终点，而应将其视为我们已知智能整体升级的一部分。随着人口增长和信息存储能力提升，人类智能也在扩展。如今由于人口下降和低增长率，人类智能正在某种程度上趋于平稳并实际上会衰退。

So I and and I think I think we'll see intelligence continue to scale all the way up to where, you know, most of the power of the sun is harnessed for compute and then ultimately most of power of the galaxy. You know, sort of Kotoshev two, Kotoshev three scale compute. So I guess I want you to think about artificial intelligence not as sort of this, you know, a destination that you reach, but really as part of the overall escalation of intelligence that that that we are aware of. You know, human intelligence has also scaled as you've have as the population has increased and we've been able to store more and more information, human intelligence has scaled. Now human because of population declines and low growth rate, human intelligence is is somewhat plateauing and will actually decline.

我的猜测是，我认为我们可能最快明年就能拥有在各个方面都比任何单个人类更聪明的AI。

And my guess is that I I think that we might have AI smarter than any single human at anything as soon as next year.

哇。

Wow.

是的。然后大概在五年内，比如说到2030年，AI可能会比所有人类加起来还要聪明。

And Yeah. And and then and then probably within five like say 2030, probably AI is smarter than the sum of all humans.

你认为人类是否因为AI的进化而正在衰退？你是否认为地球上正在发生一种生态系统的演变，我们并不真正理解正在发生事情的结构，但是

Do you think do you think humans are on the decline because the AI is evolving? Do you think there's this evolution of the ecosystem on earth that's underway that we don't really understand the structure of what's going on, but

也许我们潜意识里知道它即将到来。是的。我的意思是，我希望出生率能够回升。显然，我是提高出生率的大力支持者。

Maybe we implicitly know that it's coming. Yeah. I I I mean, I hope the birth rates turn around. I'm a I'm a big proponent of increased birth rate, obviously.

你为此做些什么了吗？还是没做？

You're doing anything about it or no?

是的。我正在努力树立一个好榜样。

Yeah. I'm trying to set a good example.

你知道，我们在这次会议上进行了一场意想不到的重要讨论，关于自杀式共情，西方，这个

You know, we had a big conversation at this conference we didn't expect, which is suicidal empathy, the West, this

不断下降的

declining

出生率。我注意到你对此相当积极。还有开放边界。还有开放边界。

birth rate. I noticed you've been pretty active about it. And open borders. And open borders.

但这就像是让入侵者进来。

But it's like let the invaders in.

还有塔克 塔克 塔克 能不能

And Tucker Tucker Tucker Could

这三者可能是同一回事吗？

all three of those be the same thing?

这 这看起来西方有很多自杀的症状。最明显的一个就是出生率达不到更替水平。显然，如果这种情况无限期持续下去，西方将无法繁殖足够的人口来替代自己。但还有其他事情 比如边界完全开放到了西方文化和社会结构开始瓦解的程度。你在欧洲尤其能看到这一点，你知道，英国、法国或德国的本土文化开始可能被带进来且不 assimilating 的人群文化所取代。

It it seems like there's a number of symptoms of the West being suicidal. The most obvious one being the birth rate is not a replacement level. So obviously if that continues indefinitely then the West will literally not reproduce enough to replace itself. But there's other things There's the fact that the borders were totally opened to the point where western culture the social fabric started to come apart. And you see this especially in Europe where there you know, the indigenous cultures of The UK or France or Germany are starting to potentially be taken over by by cultures of people who are brought in and aren't assimilating.

说到犯罪问题，你知道，我们现在在社交媒体上看到这个案例。这位年轻女性伊琳娜，她就这样...是的。是的。在地铁上被无端杀害，这本身已经足够可怕了。但除此之外，主流媒体却出于某种原因拒绝报道，仿佛这件事不存在一样。

You have crime where, you know, we have this case on social media right now. This young woman, Irina, who's just Yeah. Yeah. Killed in a senseless way on a subway which is horrific enough in and of itself. But then in addition to that, the elite media just for whatever reason just refused to cover it like it didn't exist.

是的。所以，你面临着这个未被解决甚至

Yeah. So, you have this issue of crime that's not being addressed or

未被承认的犯罪问题。而且，对此没有任何承认。这几乎就像我们在试图否认这种螺旋式恶化的现实，这个...是的。你

even acknowledged. And, no acknowledgement of this. It's almost like we're trying to deny the reality of the spiral and this Yeah. You

有...你有所有这些数据点似乎都在表明西方正在自我毁灭，或者，你知道，似乎不愿意自卫或延续自身。听着，我认为在座的每个人都觉得生命很美好。对吧？

have the You have all these data points that seem to suggest that the West is suicidal or doesn't, you know, doesn't seem to want to defend itself or propagate itself. Look, I think everyone in this room thinks that life is awesome. Right?

我的意思是

I mean

确实很棒。

It's pretty great.

而且，认为值得活下去。是的。今天早些时候亚历克斯·卡普在这里为西方辩护时，他们获得了会议上最热烈的掌声。所以我想我们可能并不真正理解正在发生什么。我们并不真正

And, think Worth living. Yeah. When Alex Karp was here earlier today defending the West, they got some of the loudest applause at the conference. So I guess we probably don't really understand what's going on. We don't really

是的。埃隆，你怎么看？因为你，你知道

Yeah. What's your take Elon? Because you you know

你对西方的自杀行为有什么看法？

What's your take on the suicide of the West?

是的。到底发生了什么，我非常担心这件事。

Yeah. What's what's going I'm very worried about it.

是的。

Yeah.

我非常担心这件事。你知道，我我认为，这么说吧，西方的行为与自杀无异。这太...但你看，至少在美国，总体上还是有一种乐观的情绪。但你上一次和生活在欧洲的、对欧洲感到乐观的人交谈是什么时候？

I'm very worried about it. You know, I I think there's there's let's just say that the actions of the West are indistinguishable from suicide. It's so but it's and look, at least in America, there's there's there's generally a sense of optimism. But when's the last time you you talked to someone from Europe who lives in Europe who's optimistic?

很久没有

Not for a

了。是的。几十年了。

while. Yeah. Decades.

比如，哪怕一个？这很罕见。所以我认为，除非人们对未来抱有乐观和使命感，否则自杀可能就是会发生的事情。就像，生孩子是对未来乐观的一种行为。所以如果你不乐观，那么我觉得我们可能需要给人们一种对未来的乐观感和兴奋感，以及相信未来会比过去更好，这样他们才会更愿意生孩子。

Like, even one? It's rare. So I I think unless people have a sense of optimism and purpose about the future, they suicide might be just what happens. Like like like, having a child is an act of optimism about the future. So if you're not optimistic, this So so I think we need to maybe give people a sense of optimism and excitement about the future, and and a belief that the future will be better than the past, and they'll be more interested in having kids.

宗教在过去是否发挥了作用，埃隆？是的，某种程度上安抚人们并让他们有那种感觉？当他们——

Did did religion play a role in the past, Elon? To Yeah. Kind of placate and make folks feel that way? When they I

我认为是的。自然厌恶真空。如果你拿走了宗教，那么我认为实际上你会得到一些比之前更糟糕的东西来填补这个位置。我的意思是，这基本上是破坏性的。你会得到像白领思维病毒这样的东西，填补宗教曾经占据的空缺。

think so. Nature abhors a vacuum. And if you take away religion, then I think you actually you you you get something in this place which is actually worse than what was there before. I mean, it's, like, destructive, basically. You get you get like the white work mind virus filling filling the hole that religion used to have.

取代宗教的位置，你会得到这些反乌托邦的、事实上的宗教，它们非常非常具有自我毁灭性。所以我认为也许需要某种宗教的复兴，或者至少我们需要一种人们能够为之兴奋的连贯哲学。你知道，对我来说，这是一种好奇的哲学。我对宇宙的本质感到好奇，我想走出去，我希望人类能够探索星空，也许遇见外星文明。也许在某些情况下，我们会看到一个早已消亡的外星文明的废墟，但它们曾经强盛了一千万年。

Taking the place of of of religion, you you get these dystopian, de facto religions that that are that are very very self destructive. So I I think perhaps some some sort of revival of religion or at least what we need is is some coherent philosophy that people can get excited about. You know, I mean, for me, it's a philosophy of curiosity. I'm curious about the nature of the universe, and I wanna go out there, and I I want humanity to be out there exploring the stars, maybe meeting alien civilizations. Maybe in some cases, we we see the ruins of a long dead alien civilization, but they were they were very strong for ten million years.

你知道，就是你在《星际迷航》或非反乌托邦的科幻书籍、电影或节目中看到的那种东西。所以我只是——我有一种好奇的哲学，就像，我只想知道发生了什么。而为了知道发生了什么，我们必须增加意识的广度和规模。我们必须扩展意识，我们必须发展人类，我们必须延伸人类，以便理解和认识宇宙。

You know, the kind of stuff that you see in Star Trek in the in a non dystopian sci fi book or or movie or show. And so I'm I'm just I have a I have a philosophy of curiosity of of, like, I just wanna know what's going on. And and and in order to know what's going on, we we must have an an increase in this in the scope and scale of consciousness. We must we must expand as a consciousness. We must grow we must grow humanity, and we must extend humanity in order to comprehend the and to to understand the universe.

甚至我们应该对宇宙这个答案提出什么问题。你知道，道格拉斯·亚当斯的书《银河系漫游指南》实际上是一本以幽默伪装的对哲学的深刻探讨。他在那本书中想表达的观点是，问题才是真正困难的部分。答案是宇宙。就像，它回答了你周围看到的一切。

Even what what questions we should ask about the answer that is the universe. You know, Doug Douglas Adams book, The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy, is actually a deep book on philosophy disguised as humor. And what the point he was trying to make in that book was that the questions are the really the the hard part. The answer is universe. Like, it answers everything you see around you.

但是，有哪些问题是我们不知道要问的？是的。现在，有些问题，我想，我确实知道一些。我想知道，物理学的标准模型关于宇宙起源的说法是否正确？我们真的存在了138亿年吗？

But but what are the questions that we don't know to ask? Yeah. Now now some of the questions, I guess, I would would I do know. I'd like to know, is the standard model of physics correct about the origins of the universe? Are we actually 13,800,000,000 years old?

宇宙会如何终结？是热寂还是其他方式？你知道，我们是不是黑洞。可能是的。好吧。

How does the universe end? Does it end in a heat death or in some other way? You know, are we black hole. We might be. Alright.

埃隆，你能谈谈

Elon, can you talk about

因为还有整个模拟问题。我们是不是一个模拟？也许吧。

because there's whole sort of simulation question. Are we a simulation? Maybe.

你认为我们首先会在哪里找到答案？在人工智能中还是在星辰中？因为你显然同时在追求这两者。

Where does the where do you think we find the answer first? In AI or in the stars? Because you're pursuing both, obviously.

是的。我我不知道是否——我希望我希望更多人能支持一种好奇的哲学。是的。因为我认为这非常令人兴奋

Yeah. I I don't know if if I hope I hope more people can get behind a philosophy of curiosity Yeah. Because I think it's very exciting

是的。

Yeah.

而且而且而且而且本质上是乐观的。你，你喜欢，因为对于宇宙的本质有一种惊人的惊奇感。是的。而当你，当你揭开宇宙的一些秘密时，那太棒了。你会觉得，一个全新的理解世界已经打开了。

And and and and inherently optimistic. You you like, because there's there's this amazing sense of wonder about the nature of the universe. Yeah. And when you just when you uncover some secrets of the universe, that's amazing. And you're like, a whole world of understanding has opened up.

我的意思是，我们以前甚至不知道所有大陆在哪里。你知道，以前的地图上会有龙之类的标记。我们只知道当他们朝那个方向航行后，就再也没有

I mean, we we used to not even know where all the continents were. You know, it used to be like, just the map would be there'd be dragons. And, like, all we know is that when they sailed in that direction, they didn't come

回来。我是说，月球基地

back. I mean, the moon base

这就是他们知道的全部了。

That's all that's all they knew.

我有点觉得月球基地，或者这次真正去月球，会是朝着正确方向迈出的一大步。你们还有月球计划吗？进展如何？这还在议程上吗？

I kinda feel like the moon base or just going to the moon for real this time would be a big step in the right direction. You still have the moon planned? What's the status of that? Is is that still on the agenda?

是的。我我认为，我认为我们想要尝试达到文明的新高度。所以我觉得去月球没问题，但我们应该去月球建立一个月球基地，就像一个月球研究基地。

Yeah. I I think it I think having I think we wanna try to reach new heights as a civilization. Yeah. So I think it's it's fine to go to the moon, but but we we should go to the moon in order to establish a lunar base, like a a lunar research base. Yeah.

我的意思是，月球的某些部分可能比地球的部分更古老。如果我们能在月球上建立科学基地，我们可能会更了解宇宙的本质。那会非常酷。然后我们显然想要超越月球去火星，在火星上建立一个自给自足的城市。

I mean, are parts of the moon that are perhaps older than parts of of Earth. And we we we might understand more about the nature of the universe if we had a science based on the moon. Yeah. That would be very cool. And then we we obviously wanna go beyond the moon to Mars and build a self sustaining city on Mars.

我确实认为人类命运走到了一个岔路口——如果我们能在火星上建立自给自足的城市，关键测试是：如果来自地球的补给船因任何原因停止运送，火星是继续繁荣还是会消亡？当火星能够自主繁荣发展时，意识的可能寿命将大大延长，因为我们不再依赖地球上的一切都顺利运行。你知道，地球上总是存在自我毁灭的可能性，比如第三次世界大战、超级病毒或陨石撞击，就像毁灭恐龙的那种。我们从化石记录中知道发生过多次大灭绝事件。所以我一直在思考的问题是：文明的发展轨迹能否继续上升，使我们在文明轨迹下降之前让火星实现自给自足？

The I I I do think that that that there is a fork in the road of human destiny where if we can establish a self sustaining city on Mars, the with the the the key test being if the resupply ships from Earth stop coming for any reason, does Mars continue to to prosper, or does it die out? At the point at which Mars is able to prosper and grow on its own, the probable lifespan of consciousness is dramatically greater because we are no longer dependent on everything going right on Earth. You know, there's there's always some possibility of self annihilation on Earth with the World War three or or a supervirus or or or a meteor, like, extinct but, know, that destroyed the dinosaurs. We know from the fossil record that there have been many mass mass extinction events. So the question that that I sort of I'm always wondering about is, will civilization can will the civilizational arc continue to ascend such that we can make Mars self sustaining before the civil civilizational arc descends?

因为在地球45亿年的历史中，首次出现了让生命成为行星故障窗口的机会。

Because the the window of opportunity to make life faulty planetary exists now for the first time in the four and a half billion year history of Earth.

是的。埃隆，假设我们到达那里并且你也在场。你知道，你会成为元老级人物。你将拥有火星的道德权威。你会如何管理火星？

Yeah. Elon, let's assume that we get there and you're there. You know, you'd be the elder statesman. You'd have the moral authority of Mars. How do you run Mars?

但我想再次强调一点：这比火星的治理形式或早期谁在那里更重要。真正重要的是火星能够自我维持，我们真正成为一个多行星物种，实现行星冗余。这样，如果地球发生某种灭绝事件——显然我们应该尽一切努力确保地球生命美好，但总存在一些风险——无论是自我毁灭还是自然灾害。

But there's this point that I I think I I wanna just emphasize again that that's it's more important than the form of governance on Mars or who's there in the early days. What really matters is that Mars is self sustaining, that we are truly a multi planet species and such that we've achieved planetary redundancy. So that that if if something and and and obviously, we we should do everything possible to make sure life on Earth is great, but there's always some risk that of an annihilation event on Earth. Yeah. Like I said, self annihilation or some natural disaster.

因此，一旦我们成为多行星物种，意识的可能寿命就会急剧增加，关键测试在于：如果补给船停止到来，火星能否存活？所以最初的火星任务并不那么重要，重要的是能否向火星输送足够吨位的物资，使火星能够自主繁荣？这意味着它必须拥有文明的所有要素。不仅需要在火星上建造芯片工厂或晶圆厂，还需要具备...

And and so the the probable lifespan of consciousness increases dramatically as soon as as soon as we are a multi planet species with the key test being, can Mars survive if the resupply ships stop coming? So so so getting like, the first missions to Mars are not that important. The what matters is, can you get sufficient tonnage tonnage to Mars such that Mars can prosper on its own? And that means it has to have all of the ingredients of civilization. It it it's not just that you need to build, for example, a chip factory on Mars or ship fab on Mars, but you you need the ability Ability to.

应用。

Apps.

你对时间尺度有概念吗？假设星舰从2026年开始进入状态，显然会有大量测试，早期测试很多，我们只有特定的发射窗口，所以存在许多时间限制。在你看来这是五十年的事？一百五十年的事？是我们这一代人的事还是我们下一代的事？

Do you do you have a sense of the time scale? Like, let's assume Starship is at a state starting in, 2026, then there's gonna be a bunch of testing obviously, there's gonna be a bunch of early testing, we only have certain launch windows, so there's a bunch of time constraints. Is that is this a fifty year thing in your mind? Is it a hundred and fifty year thing? Is it something that is for our generation or is it our children's generation?

如果一切顺利，你认为这个时间点会在什么时候？

Where do you see that point if it's optimally possible? You know, things go and break our way.

我认为可以在三十年内实现。

I think it can be done in in thirty years.

哇。所以

Wow. So

前提是每次火星转移窗口期间，前往火星的运输吨位都能呈指数级增长。火星转移窗口每两年一次，也就是每两年行星会排成一线，这时就可以前往火星。所以我认为大约需要15次，但可能少至10次，也就是10到15次火星转移窗口。如果每次窗口期前往火星的吨位都能指数增长，那么大约25年左右应该就能让火星实现自给自足。

If if provided there's an exponential increase in the in the tonnage to Mars with each successive Mars transfer windows, which is every two years. So every two years, the the planets align, and you can you can transfer to Mars. So I think in roughly 15, but maybe as few as 10, but a sub 10 to 15 ish Mars transfer windows, if you're seeing exponential increases in the tonnage to Mars with each Mars transfer window, then it should be possible to make Mars self sustaining in in about, call it roughly, twenty five years.

太棒了。真是不可思议。

Amazing. That's incredible.

好了，女士们先生们。埃隆·马斯克。我们回城后再见。我们想念你。

Alright, ladies and gentlemen. Elon Musk. We'll see you when we're back in town. We miss you.

好的。

Alright.

下次我们亲自见面。好的。

We'll see you in person next time. Alright.

谢谢你，兄弟。还有你，埃隆。

Thank you, brother. You, Elon.

好的。谢谢大家。

Alright. Thanks, guys.