H-1B签证风波，吉米道歉，自闭症成因，加州仇恨言论法

好了，各位。欢迎回到全球排名第一的播客节目——全情投入播客。我们回来了，我们回来了。

Alright, everybody. Welcome back to the number one podcast in the world. The all in podcast. We're back. We're back.

原班人马在此集结。又是我们四人黄金组合。他刚从——我相信是阿联酋和中东北非地区归来，这位独一无二的主席兼独裁者，查马斯·帕里哈皮提亚。他给'独裁者'这个词注入了灵魂，大家都这么说。

We got the original crew here. It's a tight foursome with me again. He's returned from, I believe, The UAE and MENA, the one, the only, your chairman, your dictator, Chamath Palihapitiya. He puts the dick in dictator. That's what they all say.

最近怎么样？

How are you doing?

不错。你呢？所以

Good. You? So

你去那边染上了我们到那片地区都会得的富贵病是什么来着？

you went and you got that what's that beautiful ailment that we all take to the region?

阿联酋头等舱。对，阿联酋头等舱。简直疯狂。

Emirates first class. Yeah. Oh, Emirates first class cabin. It's insane.

还配红酒？快给大家详细说说。我可是花14美元往返价坐商务舱的人。

With the wine? Take everybody in. Because I do business class for 14 dimes round trip.

阿联酋航空简直难以置信。但问题是，他们有差不多上千部电影，真的上千部。所以你得先挑出30到40部喜欢的。菜单选项也有足足95种。

Emirates is unbelievable. But the problem is there's, like, literally a thousand movies. A thousand. So you have to, like, favorite out 30 or 40 of them. There was, like, 95 different menu choices.

我大概摄入了8000大卡热量。

I had probably 8,000 calories.

哦，真的吗？我猜那光是红酒的热量吧。

Oh, really? And that was just the wine, I take it. Yeah.

顺便说，他们的红酒太棒了。酒单上有1996年的蒙哈榭，我当时都惊了——从没见过哪家航空公司的酒单这么硬核。

By the way, the wine is incredible. The wine list, like, 1996 Montrose, and I was like, is this an air I had never seen an airline wine list. It was pretty strong.

你带侍酒师乔什了吗？他是不是坐在你隔壁舱位？

Did you bring your sommelier Josh? Was he in the cabin next to you in

他单独坐？不需要的。真的不需要。

his own? I didn't need it. No. I didn't need it.

我喜欢这风格。不愧是科学苏丹啊。我们给他准备了超棒的案件清单，这周对苏丹粉丝来说简直就是超级碗级别的盛宴。

I like that. I like that. And, of course, you're sultan of science. We got a great docket for him. It's kinda like the Super Bowl Bowl for Sultan fans this week because

是啊，兄弟，我希望我能做到。我

yeah. I hope I deliver, bro. I

的意思是，好吧，我会给你施加关于自闭症的压力，而你得对此发表评论。

mean Well, I'll put you on pressure on autism, and you're gonna comment on it.

这是

It's a

件大事。确实是件大事。然后，当然，那位独一无二的，他把市集与沙皇混为一谈。大卫·萨拉克正在连线

pretty big deal. It's a pretty big deal. And then, of course, the one, the only. He puts the bazaar and czar. David Sarrak's calling in

从他的

from his

痛苦中。他太粗鲁了。

his suffering. He's so rude.

是你把沙皇和怪诞混为一谈，不是怪诞和沙皇。

It's it's you put the czar and bizarre, not the bizarre and czar.

是的。我有点在尝试，我在调试它。我一直在两种方式间切换。不过没错。

Yeah. I kinda was I'm playing with it. I'm workshopping. It's I've been trying both ways. But yes.

而且你在打电话进来。有回声效果，这很棒。

And you're calling in. You're echoing, which is great.

我在路上。

I'm on the road.

你是在会议间隙赶路吗？

You're on the road between meetings?

嗯对。差不多就是这样。

Well Yeah. Basically. Exactly.

你在车队里吗？

Are you in a motorcade?

不。不是的。

No. No.

好的，听着。本周的话题是H1B签证正在全面改革。特朗普政府宣布对所有未来的H1B申请征收10万美元的新费用。这是一次性费用。

Okay. Listen. The topic of the week, h one b visas are being overhauled. Trump administration announced a new $100,000 fee for all future h one b applications. It's a onetime fee.

关于这个政策和细节有些小混乱，但你知道，这就是第四十七届政府的行事风格。先制造些兴奋点，发布重大公告，然后我们再慢慢理清细节。卢特尼克最初说这是每年10万美元，但后来白宫澄清这是一次性费用。这是个巨大的涨幅。目前的费用几乎可以忽略不计。

There's been a little confusion about it and the details, but, you know, that's how they they do things in the forty seventh. Just some excitement, big announcement, and then we we figure out the details. Lutnick originally said it would be a 100,000 a year, but then the White House clarified it will be a one time fee. This is a huge jump. The current fee is nothing.

现在大约是2到5千美元交给政府。如果是大公司，你可能还要付给律师双倍或三倍的钱来帮你处理这些事。但你知道，这兑现了特朗普竞选时的很多承诺：对移民更严格，保护美国工人。我们之前讨论过H1B系统的滥用问题。也许在我把话题转给你之前，我会分享一些个人见解，查马斯。

It's like 2 to 5 k that you pay to the government. You might pay a lawyer, you know, double that or triple that to to do the work for you if you're a big corporation. But, you know, this this hits on a lot of the Trump campaign promises, tougher on immigration, looking out for US workers. We've talked before here about the abuse in the h one b system. I'll give some of my personal, you know, insights in that after I maybe I throw to you, Chamath.

在转交之前，他们有个有趣的预测市场：法院会在9月30日前阻止特朗普的10万H1B费用吗？只有3%的可能性。所以看起来大家都默认接受这个项目了。好了，萨克斯。

And before I do, they had an interesting poly market. Will courts block Trump's 100 k h one b by September 30? 3% chance of that happening. So it looks like everybody's kind of aligned with them with this program. Alright, Sachs.

我知道你在路上，但你的粉丝们迫切想听你的看法。你有什么见解？

I know you're on the road, but your your your fans demand to hear your take on this. What what's what's your take?

我认为收取这10万美元费用是个好主意，原因在于目前H1B申请数量大约是配额的五倍。他们每年批准约8.5万份H1B签证，但申请者远多于此。结果就变成了抽签制，随机选择幸运儿。过去十年里，约半数H1B签证都流向了那些IT咨询公司。

I think it's a good idea to have this $100,000 fee, and I'll tell you the reason why is because right now, there's something like five times as many h one b applications as there are slots. So I think they grant about 85,000 h one b's a year, and many more apply for it. And as a result, they have a lottery where they just kinda I guess, they randomly choose who the winners are gonna be. And if you look over the past decade, roughly half the h one b's go to these, like, IT consulting firms.

没错。

Yes.

平均年薪大约是6.5万美元。这某种程度上揭穿了H-1B签证是为高技能工程师、AI研究员等人才设立的谎言。现实中并非如此，实际情况是这变成了一场抽签游戏，大量签证最终流向了低端IT岗位。我认为通过设置10万美元的申请费，可以促使申请流向真正高技能、高薪酬且美国本土人才短缺的岗位。

And the average salary is, like, $65,000 a year. So it kinda puts the lie to this idea that you hear that h one b's are for, like, high skilled engineers, AI, researchers, things like that. That's not in practice what happens. In practice, what happens is you have this lottery, and a huge chunk of them end up going to low end IT jobs. And I think by putting this $100,000 fee on it, you encourage the applications to go to the actual higher skilled, higher paid jobs where there's actually a shortage of Americans.

同时也能鼓励美国公司优先考虑雇佣本土员工。抛开具体细节不谈，我认为宏观上看，他们是在运用市场机制制造H-1B签证的稀缺性。这将引导申请者真正匹配那些高薪酬、高技能的本该属于该签证类型的岗位，而非流向低端IT外包工厂。

And you encourage US companies to try to fill those jobs with Americans first. And so I think, you know, putting aside some of the the details, I think the big picture here is that they're using market forces to put some scarcity around the h one b application. And I think what that's gonna do is encourage applicants to to actually be these higher paid, higher skilled jobs that the program is supposed to be for instead of these lower end IT shop shops.

没错。这些签证本应针对高度专业化人才。我可以告诉你，九十年代初我在IT行业时，滥用现象就普遍存在，简直像契约奴役制一样可耻。IT公司通常会雇佣印度人，并直言不讳地说这些人会以半价工资干双倍工时，而且不敢拒绝。

Yeah. These are supposed to be for highly specialized workers. I can tell you, you know, when I was in IT in the early nineties, the abuse was happening all the time, and it was indentured servitude. It was disgraceful. The IT people would hire typically Indians, and they would say stuff to the effect of these guys are gonna work for half as much and twice as long, and they can't say no.

最妙的是他们无法拒绝。当我们安排周末值班时他们不能说不，需要连续工作十天进行系统部署时也不能拒绝，因为我们可以随时取消签证，他们只有30天时间找新工作。这就是针对底层签证持有者的巨大骗局，我亲眼见证过。

That's the best part of it. They can't say no when we put them on weekend coverage. They can't say no if we wanna do a build out and they have to work ten days in a row because we can kick them out of the country, and they have thirty days to find a new job. And so it's it's a giant scam on the bottom half of these. I witnessed it firsthand.

我参与过的所有关于H-1B签证的讨论——特别是涉及IT和咨询领域时——核心永远是如何省钱。事实就是这个制度被滥用了。2015年我在CNBC和Chamath讨论过，当时特朗普刚开始提及此事。他关注这个问题很久了，现在看到改革方案我很欣慰——我曾建议每年收费2万美元，最终定价差不多在这个范围。我还认为应该拿出三分之一名额进行拍卖。

Every discussion I've ever had about h one b's, you know, in relation to IT and consulting has always been about saving money. And the truth is, it's been abused. And I talked about this in 2015 on CNBC, Chamath, when Trump first started to talk about it. He's been on this for a while, and it's just great to see them I I had suggested 20 k a year, and that's kinda where they wound up. I additionally think they should do an auction for one third of these.

让那些真正需要招募牛津AI博士等顶尖人才的大型科技公司公开竞标，采用反向拍卖机制确定购买名额和价格。或许OpenAI、XAI或微软会为每个名额支付10万甚至20万美元。Chamath，你对此政策、滥用现象等问题整体怎么看？

Let all these big tech companies that are truly trying to get in very unique PhDs from Oxford in AI, then let them just put out how many they wanna buy and at what price, do a reverse auction, and fill one third of them with, I don't know, maybe OpenAI or XAI or Microsoft jumps the fence and pays a 100 k, 200 k per person. What do you think, Chamath, just broadly speaking on this and the policy, the abuse, everything?

我最初是持TN签证（美加NAFTA签证）来到美国，后来转为H-1B，在2010年代初获得绿卡和公民身份。埃隆·马斯克当初持H-1B入境，桑达尔·皮查伊也是

I came to The United States initially on a TN visa, which is the NAFTA visa between Canada and America. And then I switched to an h one b, and then I got my green card and my citizenship in the early two thousand tens. Elon came in on an h one b. Sundar Pichai came on

H-1B签证相关。萨提亚·纳德拉上任时

an h one b. Satya Nadella came in on

H-1B签证相关。确实有许多人通过这种特定签证做出了积极贡献。但萨克斯说得对，人们已找到漏洞并滥用H-1B系统。大约一年前罗伯特·斯特林发表过详尽分析，我想借此说明滥用猖獗的几个原因：首先，H-1B项目本应每年发放85,000份签证。

an h one b. There's a lot of folks that have done a lot of good things that have used this specific visa. That being said, I think Sacks is right that people have found an end around and had been abusing this h one b system. There was an incredibly exhaustive thread by Robert Sterling, I think it was about a year ago, but I wanted to use that as a jumping off point to explain a couple of reasons why I think that there's been rampant abuse. The first thing is the h one b program is supposed to be 85,000 visas a year.

但数据显示，近些年实际数量常超出该限额10倍以上。大量人员被塞进这个项目，由此不难理解为何许多人指责其压制工资水平、抢夺美国人就业机会——若真控制在85,000人，这本该微不足道。

But here is the data. And so what you see is that in many years, the last several, it's been upwards of 10 times that number. And so there are a lot of people that are getting shoehorned into this program. And when you see this, you can start to see why a lot of people are saying that there is wage suppression and that it's taking away from American jobs. Because if the program was meant to be for 85,000, you would think, well, listen, that's a drop in the bucket.

对美国经济本应毫无影响。但当每年达到60万至百万量级时，就开始显著挤占原本属于本土出生者及现有合法移民的收入与工作岗位。这是第一点。第二点，关于H-1B持有者都是顶尖人才的传说，罗伯特数据证实并非如此。

Nobody would feel that in the American economy. But when you start talking about almost a million people a year, 600,000 to a million a year, that starts to be perceptible, and that is absorbing a lot of revenue and wages that would otherwise go to domestic born and legal immigrants that are already here. So that's thing number one. Thing number two is there was a myth that these h one b's were these extremely highly skilled people. And what Robert found out in the data is that, actually, no.

平均年薪略低于12万美元。若真如所说这些是各尖端行业最优秀的博士，在融资数十亿的公司就职，这薪资根本经不起推敲——科技初创企业的多数行政助理年薪都超过11.9万美元。所谓合格毕业生拿这种薪资，本身就值得警惕。

It's not really that case. And so I think the average salary, I just wanna get this exactly right, it's slightly under a $120,000. Now if you started to tell me that these were the best in class PhDs in all of these whiz bang industries where the companies are raising billions and billions of dollars, you guys already know that this salary would not pass the smell test. Most executive assistants at tech startups make more than a $119,000 a year. So the idea that some qualified grad is making this should already sort of set off alarm bells that maybe where there's smoke, there's fire.

第二点总结：1.超额发放5-10倍；2.薪资远非想象中优渥，存在杰森提到的变相奴役与工资压制风险。第三点：这些签证给了谁？

So that's the second thing. So number one, we've been over allocating by five to 10 x. Number two, these salaries aren't these incredible salaries that you think of, which tends to mean that there is the potential, as Jason, you said, in some form of indentured servitude and wage suppression. That's not good. And then the third thing is you would ask the question, well, who gets these things?

正如萨克斯所言，大部分签证并未流向旨在提升业务的美国公司，而是被外国公司用来进行劳动力套利。

And it turns out, as Sacks said, a large plurality of these visas don't actually go to American companies that are looking to hire talent to make this American business do better. These are foreign companies that are arbitraging labor and bringing people in.

太疯狂了。

So crazy.

高知特不是美国企业，印孚瑟斯不是美国企业，塔塔、威普罗也不是。这并不是说这些公司本身有问题，而是你需要找到合适的签证类别来进行操作。

Cognizant is not an American business. Infosys is not an American business. Tata, Wipro. It's not to say that that in and of itself is wrong, but you need to find the right visa class to do this under.

是啊，他们在钻空子。

Yeah. They're hacking it.

因此综合来看，我认为从这项政策的初衷和目的出发，我们已经严重偏离了轨道，这次调整至关重要。最后我想回应对此持异议的人——有人说我们会因小失大，阻碍顶尖人才流入。但请记住，在美国攻读硕士或博士学位的人已自动获得OPT签证。

And so when you put all of this together, I think the sort of broad takeaway is from where this started and what it was intended to do, we've deviated pretty wildly, and I think that this is a very important reset. Now the last comment I wanna make is about the people that say, hold on. We are gonna cut our nose off to spite our face, and it's gonna stop an inflow of incredible talent. And what I would just remind people is that it is really important to remember that when you are in The United States for a master's or PhD, you already get an automatic visa. It's called OPT.

所以当你在美国完成实用学位项目后，会有多年时间找工作。我在8090公司就雇佣过几位这样的卡内基梅隆大学优秀毕业生，他们才华横溢。正因为拥有硕士或博士学位，他们自带几年工作许可，通常还能延期。

So you have multiple years when you graduate from a useful degree program in The United States to find a job. I have several of these folks that worked for me at eighty ninety. These are incredible grads from Carnegie Mellon. They are off the charts smart. But because they did a master's or a PhD, they come with a couple of years, and you can oftentimes extend that.

这给了我们充足时间评估他们的卓越能力。坦白说，我很乐意支付10万美元让他们获得H1B签证。若要使政策回归初衷——帮助美国企业吸纳顶尖人才，我认为这些改革是很好的纠偏措施。

And that will give us a very good amount of time to figure out how exceptional they are. And then quite honestly, I would gladly pay the 100,000 to get these guys on an h one b program. So I think if we're gonna try to return this to what it was meant to be, which is to help American companies excel, get the best of the brightest, these changes, I think, are very good measures to course correct and get us towards that.

补充点历史背景：这项政策始于二战后，当时是为了引进波兰、德国等国的火箭专家等特殊人才。我最近有个有趣的讨论——如果能把这条推特调出来——这事还有个阴暗面。本周在我的另一档播客《Starter》里，有位叫科林的先生分享了他应聘产品经理时的遭遇。

And to just give people the history of this, this was something that was started after World War two to get really specialized people like Polish and German, like geniuses building out rockets. And I had a really interesting discussion, if you could pull this tweet up. There's another sinister wrinkle to this. I had this gentleman, Colin, on, and he went to apply for a product manager. I had him on this week at Starter, that's my other podcast.

于是他申请了New Relic公司里他想要的特定职位Friedberg，并附上参考编号投递了简历。他这么做是因为要申请H1B签证，必须将职位刊登在报纸上。对吧？这些公司涉嫌把这些职位登在冷门报纸上，让美国人看不到。他们不会把职位登在你可能看到的地方。

And he applied and sent a resume with the reference number to the specific job, Friedberg, that he wanted at a company New Relic. And he did this because in order to have an h one b visa, you have to put the job in a newspaper. Right? So what these companies allegedly are doing is putting these jobs in these, like, obscure newspapers so that Americans don't see them. They're not putting them in places, you know, that you might see them.

有一群美国人专门去发现这些职位，然后告诉其他美国人去申请。他们称之为影子职位。他填了参考编号，但他们甚至不给他面试机会。我和他聊过，他有点沮丧。他说，我想申请这个职位，但显然我进不去。

And there's a group of Americans who are going and finding these jobs and saying to Americans, go ahead and apply. Here's the shadow jobs, I think is what they call them. And so he put the reference number in there, and they wouldn't even interview him. And I talked to him, and he's kinda crest falling. He's like, you know, I'm I would like to apply for this job, but it's obvious that I can't get into it.

我觉得这正显示了这些科技公司的特权心态。我不清楚New Relic对此事的立场——他们可以发邮件给我们，我会在下期节目中说明。但他们基本上是在发布虚假职位。那边人事部门的Abby甚至不让他参加面试。整件事在底层操作上非常肮脏。

This is like I think just shows the entitlement of these tech companies, and I don't know New Relic's position on this. They they can email us, and I'll I'll give it in the next episode. But they're basically listing fake jobs. And somebody, Abby, from People Ops over there just kinda doesn't even let him interview for the job. The whole thing is just really dirty at the at the low end.

而在高层面上，这又是变现不足的。所以Freiburg，你怎么看？我知道你有很多朋友，你自己也是移民。我不确定你是怎么来的，持什么签证，但我想你小时候就来了。

And at the high end, it's under monetized. So, Freiburg, your thoughts on this? I know you have a lot of friends. You're an immigrant yourself. I'm not sure how you got here and and what visa you came under, but I think it came when you were a kid.

对吧？我不确定你父母持什么签证来的，但你对这事及其可能的影响有什么看法？

Right? I'm not sure what your parents came under, but what are your thoughts on this and the impact it might have?

我认为应该为所谓的高技能工人设立两个独立项目。你提到的二战后，美国有个秘密行动叫'回形针计划'，我们试图招募德国科学家和工程师。1945到1959年间，美国招募了约1600名这类科学家。这既削弱了美国对手的实力，又促进了核工业发展——因为当时核科学早期研究多在德国开展。美国劳动力因此扩大，更重要的是促成新产业在美国诞生发展，同时德国因失去这些科学家而受损。

Well, I think there should be two separate programs for what we could call highly skilled workers. What you were referring to, at the end of World War two, there was a secret US operation called Operation Paperclip where we tried to recruit German scientists and engineers. Between 1945 and 1959, America recruited, I think, 1,600 of these scientists. So it was both, call it disabling to an American rival or adversary, but also expansive because that was when the nuclear industry was growing and much of nuclear science was being pioneered in the earlier days in Germany. And so the kind of American workforce expanded, but more importantly, a new industry was able to be enabled and unlocked and grown in The US, and then the the the German state was disabled by losing these scientists.

可以说今天也需要类似方案，我们应该启动第二个回形针计划。或许这应该是个持续进程，而非现今这种自由放任模式——由政府联合私营企业，主动锁定顶尖行业、顶尖科学家和前沿领域。如果你查看主流科学期刊，会发现如今几乎所有科学领域的大多数论文都来自中国，涵盖物理、化学、材料科学到生物技术。很有理由认为，如果这些科学家在美国开展研究创新，无论对他们还是对美国都会更好。是的。

One could make the case that a similar sort of scenario should exist today, that we should have a second operation paperclip. And perhaps it should be a continuing process rather than necessarily kind of this laissez faire process that we have today where we identify some of the top industries and the top scientists and the top top domains and go after those scientists proactively with government action, government support in partnership with private industry. If you look at papers being published across mainstream scientific journals, the majority of papers today across nearly every scientific domain are being published out of China. And this ranges from physics to chemistry to material science to biotech, and there's a real case to be made that perhaps those scientists would be better off and America would be better off if they were doing their research, pioneering here rather than there. Yeah.

因此我认为，从战略角度完全可以论证，全球范围内或许应该再次实施一项更定向、高投入、高强度的类似'回形针行动'的计划。我同意H-1B签证项目确实被严重滥用，沦为一种薪酬套利的手段。众所周知，若你找到一位高度合格、卓越的工程或科学领域高技术人才，以七年期H-1B签证计算，假设申请费摊薄至每年约1.5万美元（按10万美元总费用计），对于真正的人才而言这显然物有所值。这迫使企业必须回答：此类人才是否能在美国本土觅得？另一种方案是强制设定更高薪资门槛，迫使企业必须证明引进海外人才的合理性——即该人才价值远超本土可获人才。以美国现行失败的H-2A农业临时工计划为例...

So I think that there's a very good strategic case to be made that perhaps like a more directed, high energy, high effort kind of operation paperclip be undertaken again around the world. The h one b program, I do agree, has been heavily abused as a way of kind of compensation arbitrage. And, you know, if you find a high highly qualified excellent talent, as we all know, for a high skilled laborer in engineering or science today, that person, if you amortize the h one b over seven years at a 100 k, that application fee, that's 15 k a year, call it, that certainly seems worth it for the right sort of talent, and it forces the question about can this person be found in The United States or not. The alternative would be to force a higher salary range such that you as a company are now basically being forced to pay a higher salary, which means you have to justify that this person is worth it to bring them in from an ex US, and you can't find the talent locally. I'll tell you a program where we do this where it doesn't work in The US is called the h two a program.

这个移民农场工项目用于农业季节性用工。现行制度要求雇主支付H-2A工人高于最低工资的薪酬，具体溢价幅度取决于该州全行业平均工资水平。以佛罗里达州为例，农场主被迫支付高于最低工资5-10美元的时薪，却仍无法招募到美国工人。讽刺的是，这些获得政府高额补贴的农业企业...

This is the immigrant farm worker program that we use for temporary labor on farms. And the way that program is set up today is you have to pay the farm worker that comes in on an h two a some amount over minimum wage. And the amount that you have to pay over minimum wage is a function of the average wage in that state across all industry. In the case of Florida, they're paying 5 to $10 over minimum wage for farm workers and they cannot get any Americans to work on the farm, and they're being forced to pay 5 to $10 overage. And by the way, these farmers and these farm businesses are being heavily subsidized by the government.

当前荒诞局面的本质是：美国纳税人正在为外籍劳工支付溢价工资。理想模式应是仅在美国本土劳动力确实短缺时开放自由流动。但正如农业现状所示，这种模式存在弊端——全美农场主普遍亏损，被迫高薪聘请外籍劳工却仍无法吸引本国劳动力。这是个双刃剑问题，但我坚持认为'新回形针行动'应作为独立战略议程推进。

One way to think about the ridiculousness of what's going on is The US taxpayer is paying a premium salary to foreign workers. What we should be doing is enabling when there's no workers available in The US, we should be enabling a free flow of labor, but only in the case where there's no workers available in The US. But there is a downside to that model as we're now seeing in the in the ag industry. Farmers are losing money across the board, and they're having to pay a premium for foreign workers to come and work on the farm and they can't get US workers. There's two sides to the sword on this is my point, but I do think this operation paperclip notion should be taken on as a separate kind of strategic mandate.

是的。据我所知许多犹太科学家早已逃离德国。'回形针行动'针对的是前纳粹科学家，他们当时从事的化学/生物领域研究不仅限于火箭技术，还包括许多黑暗尖端项目。

Yeah. And that was a a lot of the Jewish scientists had already fled Germany. My understanding paperclip was for the Nazis, the former Nazi scientists. And they were working on some pretty dark and cutting edge stuff in chemical and biological. It just wasn't rockets.

对吧？

Right?

实际上涵盖所有领域。

Well, it was everything.

确实涵盖所有领域。

It was everything.

记住，在那个时代，我们刚刚发展量子理论，而量子理论催生了核科学，进而导致了原子弹的研发。所以，是的，我认为'回形针行动'影响深远。但今天，作为一个美国人，你真的希望所有材料科学、物理学、化学等领域的前沿研究都流向中国吗？还是我们应该对此深思熟虑？是人才在推动这些突破，而非单纯的机构能力。

Remember, at this era, we were just developing quantum theory, and quantum theory led to nuclear science, which led to the development of the atomic bomb. So, yeah, I think Operation Paperclip was pretty far reaching. But today, as an American, you really want all of the cutting edge research in material science, in physics, in chemistry, etcetera, to accrue to China, or should we be thoughtful about it? It's intellectual talent that's making these breakthroughs. It's not necessarily institutional capacity.

并不是说他们的机构本质上比我们更好。我们拥有杰出的机构、强大的实力、宜居的环境等等。因此我们确实需要考虑采取行动，不仅是为了扩展我们的产业基础，也是为了削弱我们眼中的竞争对手——或者说美国可能视为对手的存在。

It's not like they have better institutions per se than we do. We have amazing institutions, amazing capacity, amazing place to live, and so on. So there's a real kind of mandate that we should probably think about undertaking here, not just for extension of our industry base, industrial base, but also for disabling what we would consider rivals or what American might consider rivals.

就'回形针行动'这一点来说，有趣的是中国政府在DeepSeek模型发布后收回了工程师们的护照——至少公开报道是这样。我无法亲自证实，但确实有很多相关报道。这很容易理解。如果我们能招募或挖走几百至多几千名顶尖AI工程师，那将彻底改变游戏规则。

Just on this Operation Paperclip point, it's interesting that China the Chinese government took away the passports of the engineers at DeepSeek after the launch of that model, or at least it was publicly reported. I can't attest to this from firsthand knowledge, but there are definitely a lot of reports about this. And you can see why. I mean, if we could recruit or snap up a few 100 or at most a couple of thousand of these top AI engineers, that'd be a game changer

完全同意。

Totally.

在AI竞赛中。所以中国开始将这些人才视为战略资产，我认为他们不会允许这些人移民。但这值得我们思考。同样，在芯片设计领域，关键人才可能也就几千人。

In the AI race. So China start to see those people as a strategic asset, and they're not gonna let them immigrate, I don't think. But it it would be something for us to think about. Similarly, on the chip design front, there's probably just a few thousand people. That's all we're talking about.

这将彻底改变局面。尽管他们大多在台湾而非中国大陆。而且台湾政府恐怕也不会乐意看到我们把人才全挖到美国。但在这两个领域，就像当年的太空竞赛一样，只要这些关键人才都在美国，就会产生巨大变革。

That would be a game changer on that side. Although they're largely in Taiwan, not China. And, again, I don't think the Taiwanese government's gonna be too excited for us to snap them all up and move them to America. But in both these fields, there are a relatively small number of people kinda like in the space race who, if they were all in America, would be a huge game changer.

关键在于，美国高等教育机构确实汇聚了全球各地攻读硕士和博士的多元化人才。我们只是需要更有组织地规划如何善用这些人才。我们需要主动接触他们，建立关系，利用OPT政策，甚至可以专门创设新的签证类别。我们完全有能力通过'国家利益豁免'等方式实现这些目标。

Here's the thing. We do have a really rich diversity of people from all around the world in higher ed institutions in The United States getting masters and getting PhDs. We just need to be better organized about what to do with them. And we need to sort of reach out to those people, build relations with them, take advantage of OPT, and then we can always create a different class of visa for them. We have the ability to do these things called national interest waivers.

所有基础设施都已就位，我认为如果我们能解决H1B签证问题，将极大激励人们支持国家利益豁免政策。当前移民议题的信任危机在于，人们在移民链条的每个环节都看到了问题——一边是开放的边境

So all of the infrastructure exists and I think that if we can clean the decks on the h one b stuff, it'll give people a lot more incentive to support the national interest waiver concept. I think the reason why people don't believe in this entire immigration conversation is on every part of the distribution of immigration, people see problems. They see an open border on the one

这制度会被滥用。没错。

it's gonna be abused. Yeah.

正是如此。完全正确。

Exactly. Exactly.

是的。这是赤裸裸的滥用，感觉糟透了。

Yeah. It's abuse, and and it feels terrible.

有太多恐怖故事了，比如美国员工被迫培训薪资只有自己25%的H1B替代者。

There's been too many of these horror stories where an American is told to train their h one b replacement who's making 25% as much.

听着，本不该讲这个事，但昨天有人告诉我——我无法核实真实性，所以不想引发无端猜测——据说在某些国家存在'幼犬农场'，专门把年轻人输送到美国大学。不是顶尖学府，但遍布美国各地还算不错的学校。

Look. I shouldn't even tell this story, but it was told to me yesterday. And I don't know this to be true, so I don't wanna fan the flames of speculation here. But what I was told is that in certain countries, there are these puppy farms that essentially get these kids onboarded into US colleges. They're not the great colleges, but they are decent enough in all far flung corners of America.

让他们进入硕士项目，支付学费，然后这些人必须汇款回国偿还学位费用。如果属实，这些孩子同样遭受着剥削。整个体系已经完全失控，我们需要彻底整顿。唯有如此，我们才能重建信任，届时再推行Friedberg提到的方案时，公众才会支持，因为他们能看到系统按设计运转。

Get them into master's programs, they pay for their school, and then these folks have to then send money back to pay off their degree. So if that's happening, then these kids are being abused as well. Right? So the whole thing has just completely run amok, and I think we need to clean it up. At that point, we have the chance of rebuilding trust where then we can propose what Friedberg talked about, and everybody would be supportive because they see that the system works as intended.

我认为关闭边境让人们对此感觉好多了，因为之前边境被严重滥用，人们把移民问题笼统看待，没有将其细分为不同类别。比如有真正需要同情的异见人士——我们想对这些人展现同情，但这只是少数群体。然后还有那些通过蛇头偷渡入境，却滥用同样同情政策的人。当人们看到这种滥用现象时，听到特朗普作为总统候选人时说的'我们要把绿卡直接钉在他们的毕业证书上'，我想民众会有感触。

I think closing of the border, I think, has made people feel a lot better about it because that was so abused that people just look at immigration in one bucket, and they don't separate it into multiple buckets. There's compassionate, you know, people who are true dissidents who we want to show compassion for, it's a small number of people. Then you have all these folks who were being taken with mules and coyotes over the border, and then using that same compassionate designation and abusing that. And and when you do see that abuse, I think people, when they hear Trump come on here, and when he was a presidential candidate, president Trump came on and said, hey. We're gonna staple a green card right to those degrees.

虽然他立即遭到强烈反对。但现在局势已经平息，特朗普总统和政府占据了道德高地。他们可以说：看，我们已经关闭了边境，现在应该进行真正深思熟虑的讨论。

And then he immediately got backlash. Well, now I think if things have calmed down, now president Trump and the administration have the high ground. They could say, look. We closed the border. Now we should have a really thoughtful discussion.

我们为这些人提供美国教育。他们想创办企业，想壮大我们的公司，想开发产品和服务。这些产品和服务将创造更多就业机会。

We're giving these people American educations. They wanna start companies. They wanna build our companies. They wanna build products and services. Those products and services are gonna create more jobs.

而且我们现在的失业率是4%左右。经济形势良好正是因为关闭了边境——之前有数百万人涌入，那才是真正的问题。这并不是...

And look, we're at 4% unemployment, four point x. You know, we're we're in good shape because we closed the border, and that's where you had millions of people coming in, and that was the true problem. And this isn't the By the

顺便说一句，斯基普。提卡尔提出了非常犀利的观点。用'移民'这个单一词汇概括所有来美国的人，我认为掩盖了背后的复杂现实——包括寻求庇护者、需要帮助的人，以及我们主动想吸引引进的人才。单纯使用'移民'这个词可能并不恰当。

way, Skip. Problem. You make a really great point, Tikal. I mean, using the one word immigration to wrap up all of people that are coming to The United States, I think masks the real series of things or set of things that are underlying people seeking asylum, people in need, but then also people that we wanna go attract and bring here actively. And it's not probably not the right term to use just the word immigration.

更准确的做法应该是为每个类别都加上限定词。

The word you probably use is It should have a qualifier and a qualifier for every term.

没错。你描述的用回形针固定方式引进人才，那叫'人才招募'。然后是异见人士，那属于'对真正异见者的同情'。再然后...

Yeah. Yeah. The term is recruitment, what you described, the paper clip mode, that's recruitment. Then you have dissidents, and that is compassion for true dissidents. And then

还有家人。

there's And family.

还有家人。

And family.

还有家人。很好。所以你们有富有同情心的异议者和家庭成员。然后中间还有个大问题，那就是全世界每个人都想住在这里。但不可能每个人都来。

And family. Great. So you have compassionate dissidents and family members. And then you have this big thing in the middle, which is everybody in the world wants to live here. Everybody can't.

这就是移民问题。只需将其分为三类，然后我们的领导人需要分别进行三次不同的讨论，以深思熟虑的方式进行，而不是混淆视听并将其政治化。正是这种做法导致了如此大的问题。争论双方都过于情绪化，幸好现在特朗普已经彻底解决了最大的那个问题。

That's immigration. And so just put it in three buckets, and then our leaders need to have discussions three different discussions, and have it in a thoughtful way, not muddy the waters and politicize this. That's what's been causing such a big problem. Both sides of this argument have been so charged, hopefully, now that the biggest one has been deathly done by Trump.

特朗普在联合国大会上说过。他说，你们知道自从我上任以来有多少人越境吗？他说，确切地说是零。对，没错。

Trump said it at the UNGA. He said, you know how many people have crossed the border since since I came into office? He said, exactly zero. Yeah. Yeah.

这太不可思议了。

That's incredible.

我是说，我们拥有世界上最强大的军队。难道我们无法阻止那些背着背包越境的人吗？比如，我们应该能用无人机和摄像头来保卫边境。

I mean, we have the greatest military in the world. We can't close the border to people who are coming on, you know, with backpacks across the border? Like, we should be able to secure the border with drones and cameras.

这是蓄意而为的。他们开放了边境，你很清楚这一点

It was done deliberately. They opened the border, and you know that

当然。

Of course.

因为记得德克萨斯试图架设带刺铁丝网吧？是的。他们自行执行边境管控。

Because remember when Texas tried to put up barbed wire Yeah. They enforce their own border.

没错。

That's right.

拜登掌控的边境巡逻队拆除了那些设施。他们移除了铁丝网。

The Biden controlled border patrol got rid of it. They removed it.

那简直是儿戏。所以

That was a towel. So

这这绝对是蓄意行为。

this this was done deliberately.

没错。那是一条完美的毛巾。我记得去年我们报道过这件事。那简直是毛巾界的巅峰之作。好吧。

Yeah. That was a perfect towel. Like, I remember when I remember when we covered that last year. That was the total towel. Okay.

弗莱堡，本周科学界有些重大新闻。我们来聊聊自闭症以及本周博比·肯尼迪和特朗普总统举行的新闻发布会。这是数据图表：自闭症发病率多年来急剧上升。关于成因存在巨大争议，显然存在相关性、因果关系、检测方式等问题——或许我们的检测标准过于宽松了。但数据显示，发病率从1970年的万分之一上升到1995年的千分之一，再到2022年2月的三十二分之一。

Freiburg, some major news, in science this week. Let's talk about autism and the press conference that happened this week with Bobby Kennedy and president Trump. Here is the chart. Autism has increased dramatically over the years. There's a big debate of what's causing this and there's obviously correlations, there's causations, there's the testing of this and maybe we're just testing a little bit too loosely around this, but we went from one in ten thousand in 1970 to one in a thousand in 1995 to one in thirty two in 02/2022.

弗莱堡，这场新闻发布会有点火药味且别开生面，用批评者的话说可能有些表演性质。但这里存在真实问题。不如你来带我们梳理一下，帮我们认清现实？因为媒体显然正对此事大做文章，双方都是如此。

The press conference, Freeburg, was a little spicy and unique, performative maybe, were some of the criticisms, but there's a real issue here. And why don't you take us through it and educate us so we can kinda get to reality? Because the press is having a field day with this obviously on both sides.

我认为自闭症就像阿尔茨海默症一样，可能有多种潜在病因共同导致我们所说的自闭症表型——即我们观察到的自闭症表现。要知道它被视为谱系障碍，存在许多不同变体，实际上可能有多种不同的潜在病因或生物驱动因素在起作用。

I think autism, just like Alzheimer's, there may be several underlying conditions that lead to what we would call the phenotype of autism. That is what we all observe as autism. You know, it's considered a spectrum disorder. There's many different variations of it. There may actually be many different underlying conditions or underlying drivers, biological drivers that are causing it.

FDA局长马蒂·马卡里在新闻发布会和后续访谈中提到，他们已确认并分享了一些发表已久的论文：人体存在吸收叶酸（一种维生素B）的受体，而这种叶酸受体可能遭受免疫系统攻击，导致维生素B无法被正常吸收，相关细胞功能因此失调。当这些细胞功能异常时，就会表现出我们所说的自闭症症状。他们宣布将更新甲酰四氢叶酸钙的药品标签，这对许多人能解决叶酸受体问题。他们还提到哈佛陈曾熙公共卫生学院院长安德烈亚·巴卡雷里的一篇论文。

One of the drivers that came up during the press conference and in the subsequent interviews that Marty Makary, head of the FDA, done is that they've identified and shared papers that have been out for some time that there is a receptor that absorbs folate, a type of vitamin B, and that that folate receptor may be attacked by the immune system. And as a result, you can't really uptake vitamin B, and so those cells dysfunction. And when those cells are dysfunctional, you end up having what looks like what we call autism. And so one of the things that they announced is they're gonna work on getting the label updated for leucovorin, will resolve for many people the folate receptor issue. The other thing they they brought up is a paper that was done by Andrea Baccarelli, who's dean of the Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health.

这篇论文有些年头了，他汇总分析了46项研究：其中9项显示对乙酰氨基酚（泰诺主要成分）无关联性；4项呈负相关（实际对胎儿有保护作用）；27项显示轻微正相关（表明孕妇服用对乙酰氨基酚可能对ADHD和自闭症谱系障碍有促成作用）。尼克，你可以调出论文中的图表——这是巴卡雷里发表的原始论文。需要强调的是，他本人并未进行任何原始研究。

This paper is is a bit old where he took several studies and analyzed them and showed that across 46 studies, nine of them showed no association with acetaminophen, the main active ingredient, Tylenol. Four showed a negative association, meaning it was actually protective and good for the fetus. And twenty seven had a slightly positive association, which means that it was having some contributory effect to both ADHD and autism spectrum disorder when women would take acetaminophen while pregnant. And Nick, if you wanna just pull up that image from the paper, this is the original paper that was published by Baccarelli. So, again, he didn't do any primary research.

他并未直接研究患者，而是整合了46项其他研究的数据进行宏观分析。如图所示，虽然无法量化具体风险，但孕妇服用对乙酰氨基酚确实可能增加注意力缺陷多动症或自闭症风险。我认为自闭症潜在病因之一可能是与叶酸受体相关的自身免疫问题。至于自身免疫的成因完全是另一个话题——如果你们想讨论疫苗也可以，毕竟现在关于免疫系统产生自身抗体反应的讨论很多，但可能还存在其他影响因素。

He didn't actually go and study patients. He took the data from 46 other studies, and then he added it all together to run this kind of macro analysis. And you can see here that he showed some risk, there's no specific way to quantify that risk, but there's some increased risk of having attention deficit hyperactivity or autism as a result of taking acetaminophen while pregnant. Now I think autism, again, one of the underlyings might be this autoimmune condition associated with the folate receptor. What causes autoimmunity is a whole another conversation and we can get into the vaccine stuff if you guys want to because there's obviously a lot of conversations going on right now about the immune system being primed to have kind of an auto antibody response, but there may be other things contributing to it.

因此我认为很明显，在过去的几十年里，我们的现代世界中儿童所承受的环境暴露存在累积效应，无论是微塑料、食物中的化学物质、空气中与小分子相关的环境暴露，还是我们摄入体内的其他物质。思考这些影响的方式或许是：如果某物质有正面效应，它可能将自闭症概率提高0.05%，另一物质可能提高0.07%，以此类推。当我们将环境中所有因素叠加时，可能会对身体产生累积效应，导致不同的潜在身体状况，最终表现为我们称之为自闭症的症状。这些都不是非常特定的因素，没有单一诱因或单一途径。我认为这一点非常重要。

So I think it's pretty clear that our modern world in the last couple of decades, there's a cumulative effect of environmental exposures that children are getting, whether it's microplastics, whether it's chemicals in the food, whether it's just the environmental exposure in the air related to small molecules, whether it's related to other things we're putting in our body, every one of these things, the way to think about it is maybe if it has a positive effect, it might increase your chance of autism by zero point zero five percent, and then another thing might increase your chance by point o seven percent, and so on and so forth. And so when you add up all the things in our environment, there may be a cumulative effect that has a result in different underlying conditions in our body that may result in what looks like things that we call autism. And so none of these are very specific. There's one shot and one path Okay. And one specific thing, and I I think that's very important.

好的。让我快速问两个澄清性问题，弗里伯格。第一个问题，为观众解释下在这些研究中自闭症是如何被诊断的？是通过血液检测、基因检测，还是仅仅通过一系列问卷？我知道答案，但想请你为大家说明。

Yeah. Let me just ask two clarifying questions, really, lightning round for you, Freiberg. Number one, for the audience, how is autism diagnosed in these studies? Is there a blood test, a genetic test, or is it just a bunch of questions? I know the answer, but I wanted you to clarify it for everybody.

其次是自闭症的地域差异问题，就像我们在跨性别儿童案例中看到的那样。某些城市病例很多，而其他城市几乎没有。或许你可以谈谈这两个被广泛讨论的问题。

And then how does this the geographical differences in autism, just like we saw with trans kids? You know, there's many in certain cities and none in others. So maybe you could talk a little bit about those two issues, which I think many people have been talking about.

我认为自闭症并不像单一疾病那样有特定诊断测试。这些是被测量的表型和行为，人们称之为自闭症谱系障碍。诊断标准基于一系列筛查和行为测试，包括问卷调查、观察评估等多个环节，最终会得出一个综合评分？

So I don't think that there's one specific diagnostic test for autism as if it was one disease. Again, these are phenotypes, these are behaviors that are being measured that people call autism spectrum disorder. And so the diagnostic criteria falls under a set of screening and behavioral tests that go on. And, you know, one of the things survey. There's a survey, there's an observation, and there's a bunch of things that get a back score?

所以这是个评分体系。准确地说。然后根据分数划分不同等级。你和萨克斯得了多少分？

So it's there's a scoring system. Exactly. And so then there's different levels. What did you and Sachs score?

没错。莫里斯，因为我们可以...等等。在你公布之前，贾马思和我要打个赌，我猜...

Yeah. Maurice, because we could we could bet hold on. Before you tell us, Jamath and I are gonna bet on it, I'm gonna say

萨克森想设个分界线。16分。就以16分为界。

that Saxon Wants to make it over under. 16 points. Make it over under.

高还是低？我觉得这些人挺不错的，谁在光谱上得分最高？

Over under? I think these guys are well, what's who's got who's highest on the spectrum?

嗯，萨克森可能进入了前百分之十。

Well, Saxon may have gotten in the ninetieth percentile.

他绝对在前百分之十之列。

He's definitely in the ninetieth percentile.

那个怎么样

How's the

萨克森市场的框架如何？

framework of the Saxon market?

多元市场。我们需要一个多元市场。做过吗？经常关注那些。顺便说一下，回到对乙酰氨基酚的研究上。

Poly market. We need a poly market. Did such? Frequent get on those. By by the way, just to go back on the acetaminophen study.

太棒了。

So great.

存在情感疏离。继续说吧，Frequent。继续。

There's emotional detachment. Go ahead, Frequent. Go ahead.

反应。你在笑。

Reaction. You're laughing.

嗯，我是说，我我我正在主动选择不参与，但

Well, I mean, I I I'm making an active choice not to engage, but the

我正在主动选择压抑自己的情绪。

I am making an active choice to repress my emotions.

有一点需要注意，这也是关于这一切的争议之一，这篇由哈佛大学的Baccarelli发表的论文——我不确定我是否发音正确——实际上受到了质疑，因为在2023年，他在一起针对泰诺制造商的诉讼中被传唤为专家证人。在那场诉讼中，法官因他收取了15万美元作为提供专家证词和参与案件的报酬，而裁定他的证词不可靠。正因如此

One thing to note and and one of the controversies about all of this, the paper that was published by this guy, Baccarelli from I don't know if I'm pronouncing his name right, from Harvard, It's actually been challenged because in 2023, he was called as an expert witness in a lawsuit against the maker of Tylenol. And in that lawsuit, the judge threw out his testimony as unreliable because he was being paid a $150,000 to give the the expert testimony to work on the case. And so because of the payment that he

他站在哪一边？

side was he on?

所以这位发表论文的人，其研究显示了某种增长

So this is the guy who published the paper that linked that showed an increase in

专家证词。他是支持泰诺还是反对泰诺

expert testimony. Was he pro Tylenol or or anti

反对泰诺。所以他他是那些对泰诺提出索赔的律师们的专家证人。我要说的是，自从这次新闻发布会以来的最近几天，他公开表示我们还不确定或确信这种联系。我想提醒大家，这项关联研究表明风险增加，但这并不意味着如果你服用泰诺，你的孩子就会得自闭症。这并不意味着这里存在确定性。

Anti Tylenol. So he was he was an expert witness for the lawyers that were filing the claim against Tylenol. I will say in the last couple of days since this press conference, he has publicly said that we are not yet certain or sure about the link. And I wanna remind everyone that this association study indicates an increased risk, but that doesn't mean that if you take Tylenol, your child is gonna have autism. That doesn't mean that there's a determinism here.

统计上存在轻微增加的可能性，而且你服用的对乙酰氨基酚越多……不，不，不。是可能性。这就是论文所显示的。

There is a statistical chance that there is a slight increase and the more acetaminophen you take Well, no. No. No. The chance. And that's what the paper shows.

让我让我站在另一面来看这个问题。我们知道的是，我们确切知道存在这种潜在的自身免疫问题，作为母亲，你可以表现为抗体。有针对它的抗体测试。我们也知道可以给孩子做这个测试。

Let let me take let me take the other side of this. Here's what we know. We know for sure that there is this potential autoimmune issue that you, as the mother, can express as an antibody. There's an antibody test for it. We also know that the child can be tested for it.

所以至少我们现在处于一个可以开展一项非常彻底、资金充足的研究来深入探讨这个问题的阶段。另外，如果你检测呈阳性，会有一些医生和一些父母可能决定预防性地服用亚叶酸，然后在还不清楚孩子是否患有自闭症之前就给孩子使用。我有几个朋友的孩子在自闭症谱系上。我和他们谈论过亚叶酸。他们说的是，当孩子有严重的自闭症时，这种药物非常有效。

So at a minimum, we're now at a point where we can create a very thorough, well funded study to get to the core of this issue. Separately, to the extent that you do test positive, there will be some doctors and some parents that may decide to take leucovarine prophylactically and then also to administer it to the child before it's clear whether they do or do not have autism. I have several friends who have kids on the spectrum. I talk to them about lucavarin. What they say is that when you have extreme autism, the drug is very effective.

但当孩子属于谱系中较轻微的情况时，行为调整和行为训练会带来很多好处，而且不清楚这种药物的效果如何。但在一个具体案例中，我的一个朋友正在考虑为他们的孩子使用。但重点是，我认为我们需要对此进行测试，我认为政府和行业应该以某种方式合作。除此之外，我想说的是，弗里德伯格，我认为你说没有确定性并没有为对话增添什么，因为万一有的话，我会说我们还不知道。

But when you have kids that are more sort of mild on the spectrum, then there's a lot of benefit from behavioral modifications and behavioral training and that it's not clear how effective that drug is. But in in one specific case, one of my friends is considering it for their child. Here's the point, though. I think the point is that we need to test for this, and I think that some combination of governments and industry should come together. Beyond that, the point that I wanna make, though, is and I think, Friedberg, I don't think you're adding to the conversation when you say that there's no determinism because on the off chance that there is, I would say that we don't know yet.

当你看到女性以这种表演艺术的方式服用对乙酰氨基酚，基本上是为了试图，比如说，对抗唐纳德·特朗普，这在TikTok上到处都是，在X上到处都是，我只是觉得这很鲁莽，而且我认为这解决不了任何问题。无论如何，你都应该在任何情况下和你的医生谈谈，但当你把它变成某种抗议投票而不真正了解情况时，我认为这真的很愚蠢。

When you see women taking acetaminophen in this performative art way basically to, like, try to, like, pwn Donald Trump, and it's all over TikTok and it's all over x, I just think it's reckless, and I think it solves nothing. You're supposed to go talk to your doctor about it in all weather conditions anyways, but then when you transform it into some sort of, like, protest vote without really knowing, I think is really dumb.

是的。顺便说一下，这个叶酸受体自身抗体检测，我记得自2012年起就有这项检测了。它已经存在一段时间了。事实上...

Yeah. And this this test, by the way, Shabbat, I'll say this folate receptor anti autoantibody, there has been a test available I think since 2012. This has been around for some time. In fact Can

患者可以做这个检测吗？当然可以。

the patients take this test? Of course.

因为...而且有一篇关于这个的论文发表了。我正在找这篇论文。我不确定后续研究有多少进展。这是纽约州立大学的一篇论文，研究人员发现那些在自闭症谱系障碍诊断测试中得分极高的人群中，超过70%存在这种叶酸受体自身抗体。这只是单篇论文，所以我不想过度解读它。

Because And there was a there was a paper published on this. I'm trying to find this paper. I'm not sure how much follow-up there's been. This is a SUNY paper where these guys went and found folks that were scored very high on the autism spectrum disorder diagnostic test and they found a highest prevalence, over seventy percent had this folate receptor autoantibody. This was one paper, so I wanna I don't wanna give it, like, a ton of credence.

自那以后有很多后续研究，虽然我不是这个领域的专家，但我确实查阅过相关历史资料。这是一个广为人知的相关性现象，可能是重要诱因之一。但显然，没人应该认为'如果我没有自身抗体，我的孩子就没事'——事实未必如此。自闭症可能有多种诱因。就像对乙酰氨基酚的情况，就像喝酒或吸烟一样，摄入量越大风险越高。

There's a lot of follow-up that's happened since then, and I'm not an expert in this space, but I did kind of do some research on what the history is of this. And so this is a very well known kind of correlative effect and it could be a very big contributor, but obviously, like, no one should feel like, hey, if I don't have autoantibodies, then my kid is fine. That doesn't necessarily mean the case. Again, there may be several paths to autism. The And thing about acetaminophen, just like, hey, have a drink or smoke a cigarette, the more you do, the higher the risk.

这是我们摄入任何物质的普遍规律。我认为这正是那篇关于对乙酰氨基酚的论文想要指出的。关于如何指导孕妇使用——发烧时服用？止痛时服用？具体标准是什么？——还有很多需要明确的地方。

This is the case with anything we put in our body. And I think that's the point about, like, what they've identified in the paper that was published regarding acetaminophen. And so there's still a lot to be kind of determined on how they're gonna provide guidance to women that are pregnant on do you have a fever? Do you take it for pain? What's the right criteria?

假设我们都同意。为了政治立场而服药...

Let's say we all agree. Medicating yourself to make a political point

已经完成了。太滑稽了。我们在干什么？这不可能是真的。

is done. Hilarious. What are we doing? That can't be true.

这绝对绝对正在发生。对蠢货来说确实如此。太愚蠢了。是啊。

It's absolutely absolutely happening. This is true with idiots. It's stupid. Yeah.

我认为特朗普总统的下一个把戏应该是警告人们不要吸食老鼠药。

I think for his next trick, president Trump should warn people not to snort rat poison.

没错。同样不是个好主意。

Yes. Also not a good idea.

有人在推特上说，下一位特朗普总统会建议不要在浴缸里使用烤面包机。就想看看人们会怎么做。

Somebody was tweeting, next president Trump's gonna recommend not using toasters while you're in the bathtub Yeah. Just to see what people do.

我的美国同胞们，鉴于最新研究，我想警告大家不要使用烤面包机

My fellow Americans, in light of recent studies, I wanted to warn against the use of toasters

在你的浴缸里 别那么做 否则你

in your bathtub Don't or your

别干这事。别把烤面包机放进浴缸里 你

do it. Don't put the toaster in the You

知道人们就算他阻止也会这么做的。

know people are gonna do it if he tells them not to.

没错。我是说，我现在有个特别不合时宜的笑话，但我不会说出来的。

Exactly. Exact I mean, I have such an inappropriate joke right now. I'm not gonna say it.

让我们用弗里德伯格的数学算算。当我看到这个时，你会觉得可能有0.05%的概率。但你知道吗？如果这种情况在成千上万女性身上叠加成立，她们还愚蠢地跟风效仿，实际上可能会导致本不该患自闭症的孩子多出一两个。美国到底怎么了？

Let's take Friedberg's math. When I saw that, you think maybe there's a point 05% chance. Well, guess what? If you stack that up and it actually turns out to be true across the thousands of women that then performatively did this idiotically, you could actually have an extra kid or two with autism that didn't need to have it. What what is going on in America?

听着，我认为很多人立刻产生了嘲讽反应，因为这是特朗普和鲍比·肯尼迪关于泰诺的声明，媒体也推波助澜。老实说，我不知道真相如何，但确实存在...

Well, look. I think there there are a lot of people who instantly had a snarky reaction because it was Trump and Bobby Kennedy making these claims about Tylenol, and the media played into that. And look. I don't know what the truth of it is, but there are

就连泰诺自己也告诉人们不要服用，建议先咨询医生。

Even Tylenol tells you to not take it. They say call your doctor.

是的，确实如此。存在...

Yeah. Exactly. There are

这些人到底有多蠢？

How stupid are these people?

已有大量文章证实这一风险。约翰霍普金斯大学2019年的一篇论文指出，孕期服用泰诺与自闭症和多动症风险升高有关。

There are plenty of articles establishing this risk. There's a paper from Johns Hopkins from 2019 called taking Tylenol during pregnancy associated with elevated risk for autism and ADHD.

调出这个报道。这正印证了你的观点。这是CNN历史上对乙酰氨基酚研究结果发布的报道。可以看到昨天特朗普在记者会上提出时，他们标题写着'特朗普无视数十年安全证据，将自闭症与孕期服用乙酰氨基酚挂钩'。而回溯到2017、2016年的报道，标题却是'孕期服用乙酰氨基酚可能增加多动症风险'。

Pull this up. This is to your point. This is CNN's coverage on when these acetaminophen studies came out historically. And you can see that when it was announced at the Trump conference yesterday, they said Trump links autism to acetaminophen used during pregnancy despite decades of evidence it's safe. And then if you read back so this is 2017, 2016, acetaminophen during pregnancy may increase risk of hyperactivity.

研究显示孕期服用乙酰氨基酚 当特朗普

Studies linked acetaminophen in pregnancy When Trump

说出来时

says it

所以当特朗普说出来就要夺走婴儿。那个标题里...不，在标题里他们直接否定。但其他每次，其他每次他们都引用论文并发布相关新闻。我简直不敢相信这一切，CNN啊。

So when Trump says it take the baby. That in the headline in that no. In the headline, they dismiss it. But every other time every other time they've taken the paper and they've published the news article on the paper itself. I just couldn't believe this all this, like, CNN yeah.

他们完全无视自己之前的所有相关报道。说真的，这种做法太荒谬了。

They ignore all their previous reporting on the subject. I mean, that's that's just kinda crazy about it.

这个剪辑集锦太搞笑了。看看这个特朗普说泰诺的合集，简直笑死人。

This supercut was hilarious. Check out the this is the supercut of Trump saying Tylenol. It was hilarious.

别吃泰诺。别吃。泰诺，别吃。别吃。别用泰诺。

Don't take Tylenol. Don't take it. With Tylenol, don't take it. Don't take it. Don't use Tylenol.

别吃泰诺。别吃泰诺。拼命别吃。我觉得你不该吃。

Don't take Tylenol. Don't take Tylenol. Fight like hell not to take it. I think you shouldn't take it.

他传达信息的方式太搞笑了。就是别吃泰诺。别吃泰诺。不过美林这周销量不错，听说他们销售额上涨了。

It's just hilarious how he presents information. Just don't take Tylenol. Don't take Tylenol. Great week for Motrin, though, so I heard sales are up for them.

不。因为它也早已被证实很久了。你不能吃布洛芬、阿司匹林。对。

No. Because it's also been established for a very long time. You don't take ibuprofen, aspirin. Yeah.

你你绝对不能吃布洛芬。更糟。对。对。怀孕吃布洛芬很糟糕。

You you definitely don't take ibuprofen. Even worse. Yeah. Yeah. Ibuprofen is terrible if you're pregnant.

等等。为什么

So wait a minute. Why

为什么为什么偏偏这种作用机制完全无害，而其他止痛治头痛的作用机制对妇女婴儿都有害？得了吧，

why why is it is it specifically that this one mechanism of action was completely inoculated and every other mechanism of action for things like pain relief and headaches are known to be pretty bad for women and babies? Come on,

各位。

guys.

是的。弗里德伯格，给我们解释一下世界不同地区自闭症发病率的差异。你认为这是调查方式的问题，还是美国民众对此更为敏感？

Yeah. Friedberg, explain to us the disparity in different regions of the world and autism. Would you think that's the surveys and maybe people in The United States are a little more?

重申一下，J.Cal，我不是这方面的专家。我只能基于阅读和有限研究发表看法，但我的知识储备可能只有几小时而非几年...不过我认为...

Again, I'm not an expert in this stuff, J. Cal. I I can opine on kind of what I've read and I've done some studying, but think about my, like, level of knowledge being in the range of hours compared to years, which Oh, well, no. Which I yeah. But I would say,

我绝对算专家，因为我看完了《自闭症恋爱物语》全季。超爱这节目！特雷巴特，你看过这个吗？

like complete expert on this because I've watched all seasons of Love on the Spectrum. And I love that show. Yeah. Have you you seen that Trebat, Love on the Spectrum?

那是什么节目？

What is it?

哦，和娜特一起看吧，她会喜欢的，真的很棒。

Oh, watch it with Nat. It's she'll love it. It's great.

我认同环境暴露的累积效应理论。很多研究都集中在短期高剂量接触新型环境分子及其暴露途径。但就像我们最近才发现的微塑料问题——这些具有内分泌干扰特性的物质能结合特定受体，阻断其他蛋白质表达，对人体产生系统性影响。而我们生产塑料七十年后才发现它们在环境中降解积累，渗透进水源、食物链，甚至我们的睾丸、大脑和心脏。

I do agree with the general notion that we have a cumulative effect. Like, many studies that are done, by the way, are very organized around short duration, high exposure when it relates to novel molecules in the environment and how they're and how we're exposed to them. Yeah. The cumulative long term effect of these things, as we learned recently with respect to, like, the amount of microplastics and the endocrine disrupting nature of microplastics where they can actually bind to specific receptors and as a result block expression or binding of other proteins, which can have a systemic kind of effect on you. We didn't realize that until recently after we've been making plastics for seventy years, and then we didn't realize these plastics were breaking down and cumulatively kind of, you know, growing in our environment, in our water supply, food, in our balls, in our brains, in our hearts.

那么这些分子在人体内积累时究竟在做什么？这现在需要被研究和理解，然后我们面临着一个巨大的工业挑战——我们该如何应对。但地球上过去一百年开发的几乎所有新型分子都存在这个问题。其中一些，我们可以明确证明它们会分解、不会持久存在，是安全的。

And so what are these molecules doing as they accumulate in our body? And that now needs to be studied and understood, and then we have this big challenging industrial question of what do we do about it. But that's true for nearly every novel molecule we've developed over the past hundred years on Earth. Some of them, by the way, we could make the case. We can show deterministically they break down, they don't persist, they're fine.

而另一些分子，我们可以说存在累积效应。随着更多这类分子进入人体并滞留，它们会逐渐增加诸如DNA断裂导致癌症、内分泌干扰引发代谢异常的风险，或是我们现在可能看到的叶酸受体自身抗体表现引发的自闭症谱系障碍。因此我认为，总体来说，我们对环境中投放的许多物质产生的累积效应需要深入探讨。尽管我可能不认同鲍比·肯尼迪的某些观点，但必须承认提出这些问题至关重要。作为科学家，我们必须持续追问，这绝不能仅成为政治议题。

And then some of them, we could say, like, look, there's a cumulative effect. As more of these molecules enter our body and some of them stay in our body, they over time increase the probability of things like DNA breaks resulting in cancer or things like endocrine disruption resulting in metabolic effects or things like we might be seeing now with folate receptor autoantibody presentations that drive autism spectrum disorder. So I think that there's a lot to be said, generally speaking, about the cumulative effect about a lot of the stuff we put in our environment. And as much as I could disagree with things that Bobby Kennedy might say, I can tell you asking these questions is critically important. As scientists, we have to constantly interrogate, and this cannot be just a political point.

我不会坐在这里说我同意总统'永远不要服用对乙酰氨基酚'之类的声明，坦白说事情要复杂得多。但我确实认为，我们应该提出质疑并寻求答案的理念极其重要。所以我认为——

I'm not, like, gonna sit here and say I agree with the statements that might be made by the president when he says never take acetaminophen. Think it's a little more nuanced than that, frankly. But I do think that the idea that we should be asking the questions and interrogating for answers is very, very important. And so I think that's

这是个关键启示，因为如果你询问受影响群体和社区成员，他们的反应是：我们很高兴这个问题获得广泛关注。没错，那个边缘化的记者会是有些奇怪，但我们欣慰这成为了焦点。人们同样为疫苗感到庆幸——重申一下，我们不该禁止疫苗，但我赞赏这种对一切保持质疑的态度，而不是给医疗工业复合体开绿灯，同时我们还在持续投入资金进行研究。

an important takeaway because if you talk to people who have been impacted by this and people in the community, the reaction was we're glad we're getting a lot of attention. Yeah. That was some weird press conference on the margins, but we're glad that this is a focus now. And I think people are also glad about vaccines. Again, I don't think we should be banning vaccines, but but I do like the idea that we're questioning all these things, and we're not just giving the medical industrial complex a complete pass on this, and that we're spending money and investing in it.

接下来让我们进入关于审查制度的下一议题。

So let's go on to our next story around censorship.

你认为美国每年在自闭症上投入多少资金？天啊。你觉得够资助一项纵向研究吗？

How much money do you think is spent in The USA annually on autism? Gosh. Do you think it's enough to fund a longitudinal trial?

确实。我手头没有具体数据，但从社会成本角度考虑，你会思考资金是否有更优用途对吧？不过我们是个富裕国家，有能力资助这类研究，而且可能也会有私营企业愿意投资。

Yeah. I mean, that's I I don't have the data to know, and then I guess you would on a societal basis, you would be thinking, is there a better use of capital? Right? We but we're a rich country. We have the ability to fund some of the stuff, and there's private companies who probably would fund this too.

对吧？我敢打赌我们在各种莫名其妙的地方浪费钱。是的，找到几十亿美元来运作这次审判是件好事。

Right? I bet you we're wasting money in all kinds of random places where Yeah. Finding a few billion dollars to run this trial is a good thing.

是啊，这可能有道理。好了，我们有很多关于审查领域的新闻。所以这是本周审查简报。

Yeah. That probably makes sense. Alright. We've got a lot of news in the censorship space. So this is This Week in Censorship.

要聊的太多了。第一条新闻，吉米·坎摩尔回归荧屏。本周早些时候，迪士尼宣布ABC将恢复播出坎摩尔的节目，我记得是周二晚上。迪士尼解释上周停播坎摩尔是为了避免在国家情感敏感时刻进一步激化紧张局势，称其言论不合时宜且显得麻木。他回归后获得了巨大关注度。

So much to talk about. First story up, Jimmy Kimmel is back on the air. Earlier this week, Disney announced that ABC would resume airing Kimmel's show, and I think that was Tuesday night. Disney explained why they suspended Kimmel last week to avoid further inflaming a tense situation at an emotional moment for our country, and they call Kimmel's comments ill timed and thus insensitive. He came back and had a massive amount of reach.

但Nexstar和Sinclair的附属台决定不播出，这覆盖了60%的市场份额。有意思的是，Polymarket预测吉米·坎摩尔会在9月30日前被取消。上周停播后概率曾飙升至近80%，但现已暴跌至1%。当时情绪相当激烈。

But Nexstar and Sinclair's affiliates, they decided to not air it, and that was 60% of the market. So interesting. Polymarket had Jimmy Jimmy Kimmel canceled by September 30. It was nearly 80% after Kimmel was suspended last week, but that's plummeted to 1% since then. It was quite emotional.

我猜...我猜大家都看了，而我...

I'm I'm guessing everybody watched it and I

我没看，我确实没看。

did not I did not watch it.

哦，你没看？好吧，我们待会儿放段剪辑。我觉得...你应该...

Oh, you didn't watch it? Okay. Well, we'll play a clip here. It was I felt You should

看它说了什么。

watch what it said.

是的，它在执行过程中表现得极为真挚且巧妙。它是真诚的，就在这里。

Yeah, it was incredibly heartfelt and deft in terms of its execution. It was sincere, and here it is.

我不认为我要说的话能有多大影响。喜欢我的人自然会喜欢，不喜欢的也不会改变。我不幻想能改变任何人的想法。但我想澄清一点，因为这对作为人的我很重要，那就是你要明白，我从未有意轻视一位年轻人的谋杀案。

I don't think what I have to say is gonna make much of a difference. If you like me, you like me. If you don't, you don't. I have no illusions about changing anyone's mind. But I do wanna make something clear because it's important to me as a human, and that is you understand that it was never my intention to make light of the murder of a young man.

我 我不 我

I I don't I

不认为这有什么好笑的。

don't think there's anything funny about it.

我在他被杀当天在Instagram上发了一条信息，向他的家人送去爱意，并请求同情，我是认真的。现在依然如此。我也无意因一个明显心理严重扭曲的个体的行为而责怪任何特定群体。这完全违背了我试图表达的观点，但我理解对某些人来说，这可能显得不合时宜或表述不清，或两者兼有。对于那些认为我有所指责的人，我理解你们为何感到不安。

I I posted a message Instagram on the day he was killed, sending love to his family, and asking for compassion, and I meant it. And I still do. Nor was it my intention to blame any specific group for the actions of what it was obviously a deeply disturbed individual. That was really the opposite of the point I was trying to make, but I understand that to some that felt either ill timed or unclear or maybe both. And for those who think I did point a finger, I get why you're upset.

如果情况相反，我很可能也会有同样的感受。我有许多朋友和家人站在对立面，尽管我们在政治上完全不合，我依然爱他们并保持亲密。我不认为枪击查理·柯克的凶手代表任何人。这是一个相信暴力是解决方案的病态之人，而暴力从来不是。

If the situation was reversed, there's a good chance I'd have felt the same way. I have many friends and family members on the other side who I love and remain close to even though we don't agree on politics at all. I don't think the murderer who shot Charlie Kirk represents anyone. This was a sick person who believed violence was a solution, and it isn't. It ever.

是的。后来在这份某种程度上算是道歉的声明中，他提到了这一点。我认为他显然是在为自己的信仰、他的基督教信仰道歉，并且提到查理·柯克遗孀原谅枪手这件事多么美好，说到这里他也情绪激动了。之后他继续讲了一堆笑话，节目如常进行。收视率非常高。

Yeah. And he references later in this apology of sorts. I think it was pretty pretty clear he was apologizing his own faith, his Christianity, and just how beautiful it was that the widow of Charlie Kirk had forgiven the shooter, and he got broken up about that as well. He then went on to do a bunch of jokes and have a normal show. It was massive ratings.

显然，所有人都在关注这件事，我们看看是否能听到

Obviously, everybody was tuned into it, and we'll see if can hear

我没听到道歉。

I didn't hear an apology.

好吧。

Okay.

他道歉了吗？你知道英语里这个词是什么意思吗？据我在推特上看到的理解，严格来说他并没有道歉。

Did he apologize? Do you know do you know what that means in the English language? My understanding, if you look at Twitter and stuff, was that there was not technically an apology.

好吧。他没有道歉，也没有说明自己做错了什么。我想他说的是，我本意并非要轻视

Okay. He didn't apologize, and he didn't say what he had done wrong. I guess what he said is that I didn't mean to make light of

不是我的情况。

Wasn't my situation.

我并非有意为之。

It wasn't my intent.

没错。他并非有意

Yeah. It wasn't his

为之。更像是解释而非道歉？好吧。

intent. Explanation more than an apology? Okay.

没人指控他轻视谋杀案。人们愤怒的是他撒谎称枪手是MAGA支持者，而他并未直面这个问题。现在他因此受到批评。不过我认为他的声明——姑且称之为道歉——仍具建设性，至少表现了对立方的同理心。

Nobody was accusing him of making light of the murder. What he did and what people were upset about is that he lied and said that the shooter was MAGA, and he did not hit the nail on the head in terms of addressing that. And he's being called out for that. Now look. I still think that his statement there, let's call him an apology, was constructive and positive because at least he is showing empathy towards the other side.

他显然为Erica Kirk和Charlie Kirk感到难过。在当前政治氛围过热的环境下，仅表达对立方同情已是积极表态。我认为他确实缓和了局势。声明后半段他还强调："自私地说，我也面临威胁"，这实际上是在呼吁——

He obviously feels bad for Erica Kirk and for Charlie Kirk. And in the current overheated political environment, just expressing empathy for the other side is the positive statement. And I think he definitely brought the temperature down. And I think later in the statement, he also makes an important point about he says, you know, just selfishly, I have threats on me. And what he's basically saying is, look.

我们不该陷入内战，不应陷入以牙还牙的恶性循环。别重演哈特菲尔德-麦考伊世仇（这是我的解读，他原话并非如此，但隐含这层意思）。

We don't wanna get into a civil war here. We don't want to get into a cycle of tit for tat retaliation. Let's not play Hatfields and McCoys. This is my words. He didn't say this, but that was sort of the intimation of what he was saying.

我认为这番表态很积极。没人希望内战，局势可能急剧恶化。总体而言，他的声明展现了同理心值得肯定，但未承认真正错误——诬指枪手是MAGA支持者，这才是最令人愤慨之处。

And I think that is a good thing to say. I mean, no one here should want a civil war, and this thing can go off the rails really badly. So, look, I think that his statements were positive and and and welcome, and they showed empathy for the other side. But he did not fess up to what he really did wrong here, which was to claim that the shooter was MAGA. That was the thing that was deeply offensive.

是的。且听我说。他之所以这么做，是因为并非只有他一人在这样做。在这起枪击事件、这起刺杀案的初期，左翼的一个讨论点是枪手可能是右翼分子。左翼人士这么说的原因在于这是一种开脱。

Yeah. And hold on. And and the reason why he did that is he was not the only one doing it. In the early days of this shooting, this assassination, it was a talking point on the left that the shooter could be right wing. And the reason why people on the left were saying that is it was exculpatory.

这本质上是为了将责任推给另一方，而非正视镜中的自己，承认左翼政治暴力和刺杀文化的抬头。正如我们上周在播客中通过分析所有数据和数字所证明的，左翼确实存在这种有毒的意识形态——认为政治暴力可以解决问题。当然右翼也有类似现象，但左翼在这方面严重得多。左翼真的需要自我反省，摒弃这种意识形态。而拒绝承认这名刺客受该意识形态驱使，就是在错失自我反思与进步的机会。

It was basically to put the blame on the other side instead of looking in the mirror and popping to the fact that there is this rise of left wing political violence and assassination culture. As we demonstrated on the pod last week, by looking at all the data and all the numbers, there really is this poisonous ideology that is on the left. And, yes, there's some of it on the right, but way more of it on the left that political violence can be used to solve problems. And the left really does need to look in the mirror and rid itself of that ideology. And by not admitting that this assassin was motivated by that ideology, they are ignoring that opportunity for self reflection and for progress.

最后这部分很关键。我认为重点是，当你称某人精神错乱时，多数正常人会接着说这只是个例，是极端现象。而这种试图掩盖社会上某种更恶性、日益被接受的趋势的做法是危险的。

That last part is important. I think the point is that when you say that somebody is mentally deranged, what most normal people do is then say, oh, it was an aberration. It was an outlier. And I think that that is a dangerous way to try to sweep under the rug what is something that's more virulent and is increasingly acceptable in society.

从愿意通过谋杀实现目标的角度看，这人可能确实疯狂。某种程度上我们都认同这是疯狂的。但这不意味着他的行为没有受到许多人信奉的意识形态驱动。对此的证明就是查理·柯克遇刺后出现的庆祝反应，你在TikTok上能看到。

This guy might have been crazy in the sense that he was willing to use murder to achieve his objectives. I think we can all say on some level, that's crazy. It doesn't mean he wasn't animated by ideology that lots of people believe. And I think the proof of this was the celebratory reaction to the assassination of Charlie Kirk. You saw it on TikTok.

在Blue Sky上能看到，在社交媒体的这些角落能看到，在Reddit上绝对能看到——成千上万甚至数十万人庆祝查理·柯克的死亡，本质上认同了政治暴力是解决他们问题的手段，认可对憎恨之人使用暴力。因此，'随机疯子理论'的问题在于它完全无视了我们对查理·柯克遇刺事件更广泛反应的所有证据。这正是左翼不愿直面的事实。

You saw it on Blue Sky. You saw it on these corners of social media. You definitely saw it on Reddit where you had thousands, maybe hundreds of thousands of people celebrating the death of Charlie Kirk and basically buying it to this idea of political violence as a solution to their problem and to the idea that it was acceptable to use violence against people they hated. And so, again, this is the problem with the random nut theory is that it really ignores all the evidence we have about the larger reaction to the Charlie Kirk assassination. And this is the thing that the left really doesn't wanna confront.

他们不愿正视镜中的自己，承认左翼存在这种刺杀文化的问题。我们上周讨论过这点。最新民调显示，仍有数百万左翼人士相信枪手是MAGA支持者。吉米·坎摩尔通过散布的虚假信息助长了这种认知。他本应一针见血地承认自己错了，不该那样说，本可以更明确地澄清这点。

It does not wanna look in the mirror here and say that we have a problem on the left with this assassination culture. And we talked about this last week. And if you look at polling, they just did polling around this, and there's still millions of people on the left who believe that the shooter was MAGA. And Jimmy Kimmel helped foster that belief with this disinformation that he put out there. And he really should've hit the nail on the head in terms of saying that he got that wrong, that it was wrong to say that, and he he could have been a little bit clear about that.

我并非否定他表态中的积极部分，因为我认为他的情绪流露确实值得肯定。我知道很多右翼人士认为那不够真诚，但我认为可能是真心的。这方面我愿意给予肯定。

I'm not dismissing the positive things he said because I do think it was good for him to show that. I mean, I'm gonna give him credit for getting emotional. I know I know a lot people on the right think that it wasn't sincere. I think that it probably was sincere. I'm gonna give him credit for that.

我认为他的评论具有建设性，但他并未就实际做错的事情道歉。事实上，他只是用另一种形式的左翼说辞替换了原先的观点，即所谓的随机疯子理论。我想...就说到这里吧。但关键在于，我们必须认清一个事实：如今存在一种主要来自左翼的有毒政治意识形态，确实需要被直面应对。

I think his comments were constructive, but he did not apologize for the thing he actually did wrong. And in fact, he just replaced that original eye with a new form of left wing spin, which was the random nut theory. And I think yeah. Let me stop there. But the but the point is that, really, we need to come to grips with the fact that there is this toxic political ideology now that's mostly on the left that does need to be confronted.

我要直说了，我们得稍微澄清一下，或者说我来澄清。我认为他本应明确这人不是MAGA支持者，但我要复述原话：'我们周末见证了新下限，MAGA团伙拼命想把杀害查理·柯克的凶手描绘成他们之外的人，并借此捞取政治资本。'他本应补充说明这后来被证实不实——凶手其实是自由派。

I'm gonna go ahead and say, you know, we we should clean up a little bit here, or I'm gonna clean up. He should have, I think, made it clear that this wasn't a MAGA person, but I'm just gonna repeat the quote. We hit some new lows over the weekend with the MAGA gang desperately trying to characterize this kid who murdered Charlie Kirk as anything other than one of them in doing everything they can to score political points from it. Now he should have said that turned out not to be true. It was actually a liberal.

需要说明的是，他并未直接断言凶手是MAGA成员，而是说有人在推测凶手属于MAGA——这部分确实属实。所以准确地说，他从未直接指认凶手是MAGA。

And I think it was not that he said the guy was MAGA. He said people were speculating he was MAGA. That actually was true. So just to be clear here, he never said the person was MAGA.

等等，谁在推测？MAGA群体从未推测过查理·柯克的粉丝、亲友或同事会干这事。不，是左翼人士在推测。

Wait. Who is speculating? The MAGA people never speculating on Charlie Kirk's fans, his loved ones, his coworkers weren't speculating about this. No. It was people on the left.

注意，包括吉米·坎摩尔在内的左翼人士，正试图散布凶手可能是MAGA成员的传言。

Hold on. People on the left, of which Jimmy Kimmel was one, were trying to plant the story that this assassin could be MAGA.

这正是问题所在。

I mean, this is and this was the problem.

蓄意为之——听好了，这是故意散布的虚假信息，目的是让某种政治意识形态摆脱罪责。

Deliberately hold on. That was done deliberately as disinformation to take the blame off of the political ideology.

是啊。我不...我不认为有人会这样。

Yeah. I don't I don't think anybody no.

以及左翼日益抬头的政治暗杀文化。

And the culture of political assassination that's been rising on the left.

好的。那个周末确实有很多猜测认为这可能是尼克·富恩特斯的粉丝所为。同时也有大量猜测——这也正是为什么人们不该在突发新闻环境下妄加揣测，因为你经常会搞错。人们确实搞错了，他们因为此人的父母支持MAGA就假定他也是。当真相大白后，记录才得以修正。

Okay. So over that weekend, there was definitive speculation that this might be a groiper, one of Nick Fuentes' fans. There was also significant speculation, and this is why people shouldn't speculate in a breaking news environment because you'll frequently get it wrong. And people had gotten it wrong, because they assumed that this individual was MAGA because his parents were. And then when it turned out it wasn't true, that's when the record got corrected.

但这次事件恰恰证明了人们过早猜测往往会出错，所以在突发新闻面前应该保持等待。

But this was one of these instances where people actually were speculating, and they were wrong. And that's why you should always wait in a breaking news environment.

你用了很多被动语态来回避具体是谁说了什么。怎么说？你刚才说存在大量猜测。

Well, you're using a lot of passive tense in order to avoid who said what. How so? You said there was a lot of speculation.

不。是社交媒体在推动猜测。

No. There was effort social media speculate.

有人试图构建一个虚假叙事，将责任归咎于MAGA。吉米·坎摩尔就是推动这种论调的主要人物之一。上周我们梳理了时间线，还原了吉米发表言论时已知的全部信息。梅格和凯莉完美总结了所有已知线索——包括弹壳上的刻字。

There was an effort to create a narrative, a false narrative, that somehow MAGA was to blame for this. And Jimmy Kimmel was one of the leading people who did that. We covered last week the rundown, the timeline of what was known at the time that Jimmy Kimmel said that. And Meg and Kelly did an excellent job summarizing everything we knew. We knew what was written on the bullet casings.

我们清楚父母们说过什么，也了解朋友们的言论。梅根在这件事上的推文非常详尽。所以你现在表现得好像吉米说的话有正当依据似的，但实际上并没有。我不明白你为何要替他打掩护。

We knew what the parents had said. We knew what the friends had said. Megan's tweet on this is very exhaustive. So you're acting like there was a legitimate basis for Jimmy to say what he said, and there wasn't. And I don't know why you're covering for him.

是吗？不，不，不，我没有为任何人打掩护。

Right? No. No. No. I'm not covering for anybody.

我在澄清一个事实错误。他并没有说那个人是Mag。他说那个周末有这种猜测——当时确实有人猜测这是groiper事件，他的家人是Mag。我在社交媒体上看到所有人都在讨论这个。问题在于我们现在说左翼想要暗杀别人。

I'm clarifying a factual error. He did not say the person was Mag. He said there was speculation that weekend, which that weekend, there was speculation that this was a groiper and that his family was Mag. And I'm just on social media, everybody was speculating about this. That's and I think the the problem here is that we're saying that the left wants to assassinate people.

左翼有暗杀文化？我认识很多左翼人士。我从未听说过，也没和任何一个左翼人士交谈过支持这种行径的人，事实恰恰相反。我认识的每个左翼人士，每个知名的左翼人士——除了一两个思想极端阴暗的人——他们都表示这起事件可怕而悲惨，文明社会绝不容忍暴力。

The left has assassination culture. I know many people on the left. I don't know anybody. I haven't talked to a single person on the left who is in favor of what happened or in any way supports it, and it's quite the opposite. Every single person I know on the left, every single person, you know, who is a high profile person on the left with the exception of maybe one or two really dark people, they have all said that this is horrible and tragic, and there is no place in civil society for violence.

所以我试图客观地说明：这不是左翼所为，不是左翼的策略。左翼并不想杀人，这种说法完全错误。左翼不推崇暗杀文化，所有左翼领袖都...

So I'm trying to actually balance this down and say, this wasn't the left. This is not the left strategy. This strategy does not want to murder people. That that is absolutely false, and the left is not pro assassination culture. All the leadership on the left

你态度转变得真快，因为上周我们展示的大量数据表明，左翼中庆祝或支持政治暴力的人数是对面的三倍。当时你并未反驳，也没提供相反数据。你只是说你不认识这样的人。好吧，我很高兴你认识的人里没有为政治谋杀叫好的。

You certainly changed your tune because last week, we showed you plenty of data showing that there was three times as many people on the left who are celebrating or endorsing political violence. You didn't object to that then. You didn't show me data on the opposite. You're just saying that no one you know. Well, I'm glad that no one you know is celebrating political murder.

唯一的人

Only person

我所见到的唯一一位领导人是伊尔汗·奥马尔，她当时只是在说，比如查理·柯克留下了糟糕的遗产等等。显然，那些言论并不恰当，但其他所有人都一致谴责了这件事。我知道现在有很多调查，我认为如果要讨论政治暴力，右翼同样存在政治暴力问题，他们也需要解决。我们在1月6日看到MAGA支持者和其他人殴打警察、破坏国会大厦，那也是政治暴力。

I and the only leader I saw was Ilhan Omar, who was just saying, like, Charlie Kirk's got a terrible legacy, etcetera. Like, inappropriate comments there, obviously, but every other person uniformly condemned this. Now I know there's tons of surveys out there, and I think if we're gonna talk about political violence, the right also has a political violence problem and that they need to do. We saw on January 6 MAGA and all of these people beat police officers and destroy the capital. That is also political violence.

这不是暗杀。显然性质截然不同，但他们确实在殴打警察。明白吗？而他们为此付出的代价是——所有殴打警察的人都获得了赦免。明白吗？

It's not an assassination. It's obviously distinctly different, but they were beating cops. Okay? And the price they paid for that was they were all given pardons for beating police officers. Okay?

因此，民主党和右翼在这方面都需要更好的领导力。所有人都需要冷静下来，声明这是不可接受的。无论是1月6日殴打警察、暗杀某人，还是威胁他人必须战斗，这些都是极其恶劣的。所有人都必须平息事态。我在这个节目中试图示范的就是——即使我们存在分歧，也要进行建设性对话。

So there needs to be better leadership from the Democrats and the right on this. And everybody needs to calm this down and say, this is not acceptable. Whether you're beating cops up on January 6, assassinating somebody, threatening people to that they have to fight, This is all terrible. Everybody has to calm everything down. And that's an example I'm trying to make here on this program is to have productive dialogue even though we disagree about things.

我认识的每一个左派人士，每一个我认识的人都绝对认为这种行为令人发指，他们绝不会姑息，句号。所有领导人——除了一两个我不理解为何会批评的人之外——谁会去指责一个被冷血谋杀基督徒呢？抱歉，这完全不可接受。

Every person I know who's on the left, every person I know was absolutely believes this is abhorrent, and they would never condone it, period. Full stop. And every leader, with the exception of, like, one or two people who I don't understand why they would ever criticize, you know, a Christian who was murdered in cold blood. I I'm sorry. It's that's totally unacceptable.

但无论如何，这就是我的立场。

But anyway, that's my position on it.

听着，我理解这是个敏感议题。让我最后说一点：我知道双方都有所谓的'极端分子'实施暴行，他们都应受到同等谴责。但查理·柯克遇刺事件的不同之处在于，我们看到左翼社交媒体上有成千上万——甚至超过10万人——在欢呼庆祝他的死亡，或以他'咎由自取'为由淡化这件事。

Look. I understand this is a heated issue. Let me just make one final point. I I know that both sides have their quote unquote nut cases, violent extremists who engage in horrific crimes, and they should all be denounced equally. The difference here that I think we saw with the Charlie Kirk assassination is that you saw thousands, maybe even upwards of a 100,000 people on the left, social media, rejoice and celebrate his assassination or downplay it and minimize it on the grounds that somehow he deserved it for the things he said.

我必须指出，我从未在右翼阵营见过这种行为。当发生恶性犯罪时，我不记得有右翼人士庆祝过。这绝非主流舆论，我也绝对没见过成千上万的视频和Reddit帖子为此欢呼。民调数据显示，虽然右翼确实有人认为政治暴力可被接受，但持这种观点的人在左翼中的比例是右翼的三倍。

And I just have to say, I don't think we've seen that behavior before on the part of the right. Whenever there's been some horrific crime, I don't remember anyone on the right ever celebrating that. It was not something that was mainstream discourse by any means. I certainly do not see thousands of videos and Reddit posts celebrating that. And I think what you see in the polling data is that, yes, there are some people on the right who feel that political violence is acceptable or a solution, but that number is three times greater on the left.

我很庆幸不认识那些人。这让人安心。但尽管如此，大量数据中仍存在这种现象。我认为我们需要正视这个问题，既不淡化也不各打五十大板，否则我们国家永远无法取得进步。

I'm glad doesn't know any of those people. That's reassuring. But nonetheless, it's there in large amounts of data. And I think that we need to address that problem without minimizing it or both sidesing it or else we're ever gonna make progress as a country.

好的。Jay Kal和Chamath都得先走了。今天我们开始得晚，对他们俩来说拖得有点久。Saxe和我将用关于AI的简短对话来收尾。Saxe，不知道你是否看到，这周发表了两篇论文，每篇单独来看都相当重要。

Okay. Jay Kal and Chamath both have to run. We started late today and we ran a little bit too long for both of them. Saxe and I are gonna wrap it up with a quick conversation on AI. Saxe, don't know if you saw, but there were two papers that were published this week, each of which on their own I would say were were pretty kind of important.

我先强调第一篇，Nick，你能调出这篇吗？这是MIT的论文。这篇题为《教会大语言模型制定计划》，本质上该团队——他们来自MIT并与微软AI山景城的科学家合作——创建了一个指令微调框架，教会LLMs进行符号化规划，即通过让模型生成明确的状态-动作-状态链，使其以更智能的方式逐步思考（链式推理），然后通过外部计划验证器（本质上是人类或软件工具）提供的反馈来训练模型，验证器会判断这系列步骤是否合理完成目标，若不合理则指出错误和改进方向。在某些用于链式推理和LLM规划的标准测试中，他们实现了高达94%的规划准确率，相比基线模型绝对提升了66%，这相当显著。

I'll highlight the first one and Nick, if you could just pull this first one up. This is the MIT paper. So this paper is called teaching LLMs to plan and effectively what this team did, and again, they were out of MIT in collaboration with a scientist at Microsoft AI in Mountain View, they basically created an instruction tuning framework that teaches LLMs to do symbolic planning, which basically means that the LLMs think about step by step or chain of thought in a smarter way by making them generate explicit state action state chains and then they trained that model by giving them feedback with an external plan validator, which is effectively gonna be a human or or a software tool that says, did this series of steps make sense to do the thing you're trying to do? If not, here's what you did wrong, here's what you should have done better, and they were able to achieve planning accuracy of up to 94% on some standardized benchmarks that are used for chain of thought reasoning and planning using LLMs. This is a 66% absolute improvement over baseline models and so this is pretty substantial.

他们采用LAMA三模型，将性能从1%提升至64%。最终效果是：这类系统能以如此显著的方式训练LLMs进行更好的推理和链式思考，使得LLMs看起来像是开始具备推理能力。通过有效训练它们规划中的推理步骤，LLMs在使用这种符号化规划方法时更接近人类推理表现——他们围绕该方法构建了微调框架。这听起来有点复杂，但本质上是找到了一种方法，让AI在制定逐步计划并执行时表现得更具逻辑性，其测试结果令人惊叹。

They took LAMA three and they were able to increase the performance from 1% to 64%. The outcome of this basically is that this sort of a system can be used to train LLMs to do better reasoning and better chain of thought in such a dramatic way that LLMs will look like they are starting to reason. And so by training them effectively on the steps in planning on how to reason, the LLMs get better at looking like they're doing reasoning using this kind of symbolic planning method that they then built a tuning framework around. That sounded a little bit complicated, but I think ultimately what it translates to is they figured out a method to get AI to act in a more reasoned way in developing step by step plans and execute against those plans. And the results and the benchmarks are incredible.

所以Sax，我认为这是本周的重大突破。不知道你是否看过MIT这篇论文或与团队讨论过？

So this was a big breakthrough, I would say, this week, Sax. I don't know if you spent any time looking at this paper from MIT or talked to your team about it.

我还没看到。但他们所说的符号化框架具体是什么？确切地说——我理解链式思考，但到底是什么机制提高了准确率？

I haven't seen it. But what what exactly is the symbolic framework they're talking about? Exact you know, what what exactly is that that I mean, I understand chain of thought, but what is it that that improves accuracy?

有种古老语言叫PDDL（规划领域定义语言），它试图标准化AI规划语言。自90年代末就存在，本质上是用符号定义规划步骤。他们利用PDDL设定一系列步骤，让LLM在执行任务或动作时通过这些步骤进行推理并得出答案。

There's an old language called PDDL or planning domain definition language. PDDL is kind of an attempt to standardize AI planning languages. So it's been around for a long time. I think it's been around since, like, the late nineties, and it's effectively a series of symbols that define planning. What they were then doing is basically using PDDL to try and set a series of steps that the LLM would use to reason and get to an answer on doing a task or or running an action.

接着他们利用开发的调优框架对PDDL进行调优，给予反馈，还输入了优质方案和劣质方案，并标注：这是好方案，这是差方案。最终，大语言模型（LLM）通过这种方式运行，获得了更优的解决特定问题的步骤序列。这使得LLM底层机制能更高效地解决复杂问题——无论是思维链推理还是需要多步骤的规划问题。我认为这是非常重大的突破。

And then they tuned the PDDL using this tuning framework that they developed, giving it feedback, And then they also fed it good plans and bad plans and said, this is a good plan. This is a bad plan. And so overall, the LLM was then run-in such a way that it actually had a better set of steps that it would use to solve a particular problem. And so this can then lead to all of the underlying machinery of an LLM being better utilized to solve a bigger problem, to solve kind of a a chain of thought or to solve some reasoning problem that requires several steps or planning. I think it was a very good breakthrough.

他们公布的基准数据相当惊人，这周引起了广泛关注。这是我认为本周最有趣的论文之一。另一篇——尼克，或许你可以调出这篇——萨克，这篇德国团队的成果更令人震撼。

The the benchmark data that they shared was pretty impressive, and it's getting quite a bit of attention this week. That was one, I think, really interesting paper that came out this week. The other one and, Nick, maybe you can pull this one up. So this one's really impressive, Sax. This comes from a team in Germany.

该论文发表于《自然·计算科学》期刊。研究者对GPU进行改造：通常每个token都需要将完整的键值对从高带宽内存传输到缓存内存，这意味着要在不同内存间大量迁移数据。而他们成功缩减了运行注意力窗口所需的物理内存空间，最终使推理过程的能耗与单token成本显著下降。

This paper was published in the journal Nature Computational Science. These folks took a GPU and for each token, typically, you'll have the entire key value chain transferred from high bandwidth memory to cache memory. So this means that you're moving a lot of data between one type of memory and another type of memory. And what they were able to do is they were actually able to reduce the physical memory size that's needed to run the attention window. As a result, the energy and the total token cost to run inference went down significantly.

我尽量简化说明，但关键是他们提供的最终数据：其架构相比英伟达Jetson Nano实现7000倍加速，对比RTX4090有300倍提升，相较H100也有100倍提升。能耗方面，对比Jetson Nano降低40000倍，较RTX4090减少90000倍，与H100相同输出结果下节能70000倍。若该技术可扩展，这种新机制或将大幅降低AI运行的能耗需求。更重要的是，由于内存需求锐减，许多AI推理可部署至网络边缘——这意味着历史上需要数据中心高端GPU堆栈才能运行的强大LLM模型，未来或可在机器人、设备、电脑甚至手机上运行。

I'm trying to simplify this down as best I can, but what matters is the the end data that they provided. Their architecture led to a speed up of 7,000 x compared to the NVIDIA Jetson Nano, 300 x compared with NVIDIA RTX forty ninety, and then a 100 x compared to the NVIDIA h 100. And the energy was reduced by 40,000 x compared to Jetson Nano, 90,000 x compared to RDX forty ninety, and a 70,000 x energy reduction for the same outcome over an h 100. So I think that this mechanism, if it scales, this new kind of technique can have a pretty dramatic effect on the energy consumption needed to run AI. And importantly, because you need far less memory, you can actually move a lot of AI inference to the edge of the network, meaning you could put, for example, a very high powered LLM model that could be run-in a robot or in a piece of equipment or in a computer or on your phone that historically you'd need to run-in a data center because you needed a very high powered GPU chip stack.

因此我认为这种架构可能成为重大突破。我们曾与谢尔盖·布林、埃里克·施密特、桑达尔和德米斯讨论过AI领域即将出现的架构革命，这些突破最终可能将推理和AI模型运行的能耗降低数个数量级。若该技术可扩展，我们现有关于数据中心和能源消耗的假设都将需要在这个新架构框架下重新评估——未来需求可能会变得极低。虽然还需验证，但这确实是篇重要论文，人们会将其视为AI能源与基础设施需求认知的转折点。

And so this architecture, I think, could be one of these big architectural breakthroughs. We've spoken with Sergey Brin and Eric Schmidt and Sundar and Demis about the big architectural breakthroughs that are coming in AI that could ultimately lead to many orders of magnitude reduction in the energy cost needed to run inference and to run AI models. Again, if this scales, then all of our assumptions about the data center, about the energy can start to kind of be thought about under this new kind of architectural framework, which might actually result in much, much lower need states. We'll see. But it was a really, I think, important paper, and folks are gonna look up this paper and say, this could be a pivot point in how we think about the energy and infrastructure needs to support AI.

不知你和团队是否已研读，但绝对值得深入探讨。

I don't know if you and your team have reviewed it, but it's definitely worth spending some time on.

确实。我认为趋势已经很明显：模型会越来越小、越来越高效，最终能在边缘设备和本地终端运行。DeepSeek已预示这点，而最近发布的Llama四代最小模型（我记得叫Scout）甚至能在单GPU上运行。

Yeah. Look. I think the writing was on the wall that models are going to get smaller and smaller and more efficient to the point where they can run on the edge on local devices. I mean, that was one of the implications of DeepSeek. But if you look more recently at, I think, the launch of Llama four, their smallest model, I think it's called Scout, runs on a single GPU.

没错。

Right.

所以我认为我们将拥有一系列智能设备，它们都将配备单个GPU来运行相当不错的AI模型。而且，显然你的手机也会有一个，可能性能会更强大。

So I think we're gonna have a whole range of smart devices that will have a single GPU running a pretty decent AI model. And, I mean, obviously, your phone will have one too, probably a much better one.

你和你的团队讨论过这些更优架构下的能源需求曲线吗？比如，如果我们谈论的是运行一个token所需的能源减少一万倍，你们是否考虑过能源消耗是否会按照我们预期的比例增长？数据中心的需求是否会如我们预测的那样扩展？还是说由于效率提高，实际需求反而会增加？

Have you and your team talked about, like, what the energy demand curve looks like as these better architectures? Like, if we're talking about 10,000 x reduction in energy to run a token, have you guys thought about, well, you know, does energy scale as we've projected it to scale? Does data center need scale like we've projected it to? Or do you think that because they're more efficient, we'll actually have more demand?

目前听起来有点好得不太真实。

That just sounds a little too good to be true right now.

确实。

Right.

在论文和产品之间，我更关注产品的发布，对论文不太关注。

As between papers and products, I pay a lot of attention to the launch of products. I don't pay a lot of attention to papers.

明白。

Right.

我知道有些论文最终会变得非常重要。比如2017年那篇关于Transformer架构的论文后来被证明影响巨大，但我觉得很多论文由于各种原因并未产生实际影响。可能是难以复现，无法规模化等等。所以我并不太关注学术文献，而是更关注产品发布。

I know that some papers end up being really important. For example, the paper on the transformer architecture back in 2017 turned out to be enormously important, but I think that a lot of papers don't really go anywhere for whatever reason. Maybe they're hard to reproduce, so they don't scale, what have you. So I just don't really pay that much attention to the academic literature. I do pay a lot of attention to product launches.

当有人推出革命性产品时，立刻就会吸引所有人的注意，因为你不需要猜测概念验证是否可行——你直接就能看到。我想说的是，实践才是检验真理的标准。

And when someone launches something revolutionary, then it immediately gets everyone's attention because you don't have to speculate about whether a proof of concept's gonna be possible or not. You actually see it. I guess what I'm saying is that the proof of the pudding is in the eating.

没错。

Right.

我认为我们将需要更多能源，更多电力。这是众所周知的。我们甚至还没迎来机器人革命。如果未来五年内实现，那将消耗大量能源。

I think we're gonna need a lot more power, a lot more electricity. I think that's pretty well known. We haven't even gotten to the robot revolution yet. If that's coming in the next five years, that's gonna be energy intensive.

所以如果这个技术方向基本正确，未来你就能在机器人上运行最复杂的LLM模型，无需依赖数据中心。机器人只需从互联网获取所需信息，而所有实际计算、推理和基础知识都将存储在本地设备上。想想真是不可思议——我们终将拥有这样的机器人，太神奇了。

So If this thing's even close to being correct, then you could run the most kind of sophisticated LLMs in a robot without it needing to be run out of a data center going forward and the robots can simply make a request for information from the Internet that they need, but all of the actual computation, the reasoning, all of the base knowledge would sit locally in that device. It's really incredible to think about. Like, we are gonna end up with these, like, robots. It's amazing.

是的，没错。我认为自动驾驶如果完全依赖云端推理是无法实现的。现在都是通过强大的AI芯片在本地运行的。

Yeah. Yeah. Well, I think that's right. I mean, I think that self driving wouldn't work if you had to run all the inference on the cloud. I mean, it's run locally, right, by powerful AI chips.

当然必要时可以联网。但我预计机器人都会配备本地AI模型。

And then obviously, it can connect when it needs to. But, no, I I would expect that robots are gonna have a local AI model.

好的。明白了。不错。嗯，就这样吧。我是说，这两篇论文是我认为本周真正令人印象深刻的。

Yeah. Okay. Cool. Well, that's it. I mean, those were the two papers I thought were really pretty impressive this week.

嘿，弗里德伯格。YouTube到底出了什么问题？关于我们在All In峰会上那些似乎被影子封禁的剧集，有什么最新进展吗？是的，告诉我们发生了什么。

Hey, Friedberg. What exactly happened with YouTube? Do you have an update on what happened with our episodes from All In Summit that appear to be Shadowbanned? Yeah. Tell us what happened there.

好的。首先感谢YouTube的工作人员。他们实际上整个周末都在帮我们查明原因，结果并没有什么恶意行为。不存在影子封禁的情况。事情是这样的，你们可能还记得几个月前，我们不再用哔声屏蔽脏话，而是直接静音处理。

Okay. So thank you to the folks at YouTube. They actually worked all weekend to help us figure out what happened and there was nothing nefarious. There was no shadow banning going on. What happened was, you guys may recall a couple of months ago, we stopped bleeping out curse words in our episodes and we muted them instead.

当我们静音时，YouTube算法仍然认为我们在轻声说脏话，这些词还是会出现在字幕里。视频含有脏话时，YouTube会将其标记为受限内容，认为不适合所有年龄段观看，这就是为什么会被打上受限标记。我们回溯后发现，所有被限制的剧集都包含脏话，现在完全明白原因了。所以今后我们会重新使用哔声处理，而不是单纯静音。

And when we muted them, the YouTube algorithm still thought that we were saying the curse word quietly and it still showed up in the YouTube transcript. When you have a curse word in a video, YouTube marks it as restricted. So it's kind of not age appropriate and so that's why it was getting the restricted mark. When we went back, the episodes that did get restricted all had a curse word in them and we understand clearly what happened. So going forward, we are gonna use the bleeping again instead of just muting.

这件事非常单纯，没有阴谋。YouTube在支持我们方面做得很好。我们已经修复了所有旧剧集，它们都已解除受限模式，并开始重新发布所有峰会视频。所以，没错，关于这件事的阴谋论可以收起来了。

It was very benign, not nefarious. YouTube did a great job supporting us. We went back and fixed all the old episodes, so they're all out of restricted mode and we started reposting all of our summit videos again. So, yeah, I mean, conspiracy corner is closed on that one.

等等，创作者们知道这个规则吗？如果节目里有脏话就会被设为受限模式？

Well, hold on. Do creators know about this that if you have f bombs in your show that you go on to restricted mode?

这是个很好的问题。目前没有明确提示——我们正在和YouTube产品团队讨论这个问题。创作者无法直观看到视频是否被标记为受限，他们需要改进这个功能。团队告诉我们会解决这个问题。我认为我们应该持续督促他们，因为让创作者不明就里是很严重的问题。

You know, that's a great question. There's no and we were talking to the YouTube product team about this. There's no easy way for YouTube creators to see that a video has been tagged as restricted and so they need to fix that. They're going to fix that, they told us. And so I think we should all kind of continue to hold them to that because it's important that creators don't know why.

我们向他们提出的问题之一（原以为只是理论假设）是：如果有人举报你的视频，是否会自动进入限制模式？答案是否定的。举报会触发独立审核流程，而限制模式算法是另一套机制。但关键在于，当视频被限制时，创作者并不会收到通知，完全不知情——这显然是平台需要改进的地方。

One of the questions we had for them, which we thought was a theory, was if people report your video, does it automatically go into restricted mode? And the answer is no. So the reporting triggers a review separately, but the restricted mode algorithm is distinct. But when it comes to this, like, restricted mode being triggered, you don't know that it happened. You don't get a notice, you're unaware of it, and they need to address that obviously.

他们应该建立一个数据面板，展示视频受到的所有限制类型及具体原因代码

They need to have like a dashboard that shows you any kind of restriction on your videos and a reason code for why

没错。而且要有精确的时间戳——他们的工程师当时就能调取数据，查看时间节点并指给我们看。这些信息本应透明化，应该直接呈现给内容创作者。

That's right. You know? And specific time stamps because they their engineers were able to pull it up for us, look at the time stamps, point us to them, and we could see what happened. That should be apparent. Like, they should present that to the creators.

平台清楚限制原因。有人辩称YouTube限制模式无关紧要，但我们从流量数据发现影响巨大。当星巴克、公交地铁或办公室等公共场所的WiFi管理员启用安全模式时——

They know why they got restricted. I think part of the argument was like, well, restricted mode in YouTube isn't a big deal. It turns out it is a big deal. We saw it in our traffic. We had big drop off because a lot of network administrators, so the people that run the Wi Fi at Starbucks or on your public bus and subway or in your, you know, office, they have a network setting that's called safe mode.

这种安全模式本用于屏蔽色情等不适内容，但会连带触发YouTube限制模式。当公众场所用户试图观看受限视频时，创作者就彻底失去这部分观众。我认为视频被标记限制的影响远超人们认知，平台至少应该更透明化处理，并允许创作者修正可能导致限制的问题。不过政策本身并无不妥。

And safe mode was originally designed to block porn or other not safe for work content at work, but it also triggers the restricted mode being blocked on YouTube. And so if you're in one of those public networks and you're trying to access YouTube and you're in a restricted video, you lose that entire audience. So it turns out I think it actually is a bigger deal than folks realize that videos are getting tagged as restricted mode, at least I think it is and they should do a better job kind of surfacing things and then people should be able to go back in, creators, and correct any issues that might be causing that to be restricted. Yeah. But I don't feel like the policy itself was bad.

问题出在算法缺陷——系统未能识别我们已消音不当词汇。以前用哔声处理时更易被识别，所以我们将恢复哔音处理直到他们...

I think there was an algorithm problem where their software didn't pick up that we had muted bad words and it was more apparent previously when we bleeped them, so we're gonna go back to bleeping until they

是否存在恶意举报行为？我们认为没有。那只是...

think And there any weaponized reporting of content or we just don't think No. That was a

我们知道那不是真的。我们核查过，我亲自从高层确认过，答案是否定的，而且我们对这一点感到非常放心。实际上也没有任何机制——比如当人们进行爆炸性报道或试图，就像我们过去开玩笑说的那样，用‘幻影部队’围攻你时——会真正触发任何后果。所以这

We know that to not be true. We checked that, I checked that at the high level and the answer is no and I think we feel very good about that. There's no, like, mechanism either that if people do blast reporting or they try and, you know, as we used to joke, brigadoon you, it doesn't actually trigger anything. So it's

明白了。说到YouTube，本周有一份非常重要的报告出炉，虽然我们对此早有预感，但YouTube承认在拜登政府时期——大概是2019年到2022年2月左右的时间段——他们应拜登政府要求审查了约一百万部视频。这应该始于2021年。他们承认受到了政府施压。扎克伯格此前就Meta也说过同样的话，推特文件也揭示了同样的情况，如今YouTube终于承认了这一点。

Got it. And speaking of YouTube, there was a really important report out this week where I think we kinda knew this, but YouTube acknowledged that during the Biden administration, I think this was, like, roughly 2019 or 02/2022, that time frame, that they censored, I think, something like a million videos at the behest of the Biden administration. I guess that would have started in 2021. And they admitted that they were pressured by the administration. Zuckerberg had said the same thing about Meta, and the Twitter files informed us about the same thing, but now YouTube has finally acknowledged that.

相关材料有大量披露。

There's a big release on that.

我来谈谈我的看法。我认为那个时期的审查制度虽然存在，但它的发生非常重要，因为它以一种前所未有的方式将问题暴露在阳光下，现在人们对避免重蹈覆辙变得极度敏感。实际上我认为这是件好事。正因为发生过，现在人们才真正意识到未来政策限制的边界比以往任何时候都更清晰。这不仅关乎特朗普政府——尽管主流媒体总试图将焦点引向那里——更关乎言论自由、审查制度的核心问题，以及谁有权定义客观真理。

I'll tell you my view on this. I think that the censorship that happened during that era is very important to have happened because it has brought a light to it in a way that now there's a hypersensitivity to it not happening again. And I actually think that that's very good. So the fact that it happened has now created a real sense that going forward, the policy limits, the boundaries are now more clear than they ever were. It's not just about the Trump admin, which I think a lot of mainstream media tries to make it about, but it really is about the importance of free speech and and and censorship and who decides what's objective truth or not.

回顾新冠疫情时期的所有讨论，禁止人们自由讨论显然是个问题。说到这个话题，不知道你是否注意到，加州议会通过了一项所谓的‘仇恨言论法案’，现已提交州长纽森签署。该法案将处罚那些允许平台出现被加州政府定义为仇恨言论内容的社交媒体公司。加州政府可以任意界定仇恨言论的范畴——你马上就能看出这会导致多危险的滑坡效应——他们现在能对社交媒体公司处以数百万美元罚款。这本身就可能催生全新的审查机制：人们因害怕使用某些被当下认定为仇恨言论的词汇会导致公司遭受天价罚款，进而封锁所有相关内容。如果纽森州长签署该法案，未来数年内很可能引发新型审查制度之战。

I mean, going back to all of the COVID era discussions, not allowing people to have discussions clearly is a problem. And and speaking of this topic, I don't know if you saw this, but there is this kind of hate speech bill that passed out of the assembly and the senate in California that's now on Gavin Newsom's death to sign, which basically would find social networks that allow content to show up on their social network that the state of California deems to be hate speech. And so whatever language or terms the state of California calls hate speech, and you could see how this could become a very slippery slope very fast, they can now find a social media company millions of dollars, which in and of itself could actually propagate a whole new censorship regime where people that are using certain terms that in that era are considered bad terms or hate speech terms, they're afraid that they don't wanna get fined tens of millions of dollars so they block all that content. And I do think that if this gets signed by governor Newsom, it could trigger a whole new kind of censorship battle in the months and years ahead.

我们拭目以待。

We'll see.

我认为你说得非常准确。你提到的法案应该是SB771，它本质上是欧盟式对社交媒体所谓‘仇恨言论’的压制。问题在于仇恨言论根本没有明确定义——这个分类本身就不存在，完全由掌权者随意界定。

Well, I think that's exactly right. I think the bill you're referring to is s b seven seven one, and it is an EU style suppression of, quote, unquote, hate speech on social networks. The problem is that there is no definition of hate speech. That's not a category that exists. It's just whatever the people in power say it is.

没错。

That's right.

因此，根据第一修正案，仇恨言论并不存在宪法例外。

And so there is no constitutional exception for hate speech under the First Amendment.

他们在法案（加州法案）中引用了民权法规——因为我读过——这些法规涉及某些类型的歧视和仇恨言论，但正如你所说，这些词汇并未明确定义。最终导致的结果是，你可以声称使用某个词对某群体构成歧视，或某个词因冒犯另一群体而被视为仇恨言论。于是，普通人眼中的仇恨言论与行政机构某些人定义的仇恨言论之间的界限开始模糊。突然间，问题变成了：这究竟是真正的民权侵犯，还是仅仅令人反感的内容？

They reference in the bill, the California bill, because I read it, civil rights statutes which speak to certain types of discrimination, certain types of hate speech, but to your point, those words are not defined. And so what ends up happening is you could say, well, using that word is discriminatory to this group in some way or using that word is hateful because it offends another group. And suddenly you start to blur the line between what the average person might call hate speech and what perhaps some people in an administrative body are calling hate speech. And suddenly, it becomes more like, hey. Is this really a civil rights violation or is it just offensive content?

这是一个非常危险的滑坡——令人反感的内容突然可以被包装成仇恨言论，接着政府开始规定我们什么能看、什么能说。我们现在正目睹英国因此产生的后果，警方破门逮捕在推特上发帖的人。

And it's a very slippery slope that offensive content suddenly can get wrapped up and be called hate speech, and then the government starts to tell us all what we are and aren't allowed to see it say, and we're obviously seeing the repercussions of that in The UK right now where the police are knocking down doors to arrest people for putting stuff on on Twitter.

我以为你刚才要表达的意思是：我们从新冠疫情时期YouTube等平台吸取的所有教训是积极的——

The direction I thought you were going in a minute ago was that it it sounded like you were saying that it's good that we've learned all these lessons from this COVID period where YouTube and

尽管我改变了主意。

Even though I changed my mind.

是的。我认为这完全正确。我看不到任何证据表明——尤其是政治左派——吸取了教训。加文·纽瑟姆现在正试图在加州禁止仇恨言论。顺便说一句，他大约一年前还签署了禁止恶搞的法案。

Yeah. And I I think that's exactly right. I don't see any evidence that the I'd say, especially the political left has learned its lesson. You got Gavin Newsom now trying to ban hate speech in California. By the way, he also signed that bill, was it, like, a year ago, banning parody.

还记得吗？那些恶搞视频？

Remember that? Parody videos?

我确实记得。对，政治AI恶搞视频，就是那种政治题材的AI生成视频。

I do remember that. Yeah. Political political AI. It was, like, political AI videos.

没错。

Yeah.

是的。

Yeah.

因为那是在卡玛拉·哈里斯的幽默虚假广告风波之后发生的。然后左派那些人已经在叫嚣要惩罚辛克莱和Nextel公司，就因为他们没让吉米·坎摩尔回归节目。换句话说，同一批人一周前还在说特朗普政府施压ABC迪士尼是法西斯行径，现在却认为施压Nextel和辛克莱就是民主了。这完全是双标。我不认为有人从这件事里吸取了教训。

Because it was in the wake of the of a humorous fake advertisement for Kamala Harris. Then you've got these folks who on the left are already saying that Sinclair and Nextel need to be punished for not putting Jimmy Kimmel back on the air. So in other words, the same people who are saying a week ago that the Trump administration jawboned ABC Disney that that was fascism, but if they jawboned Nextel and Sinclair, that's democracy. I mean, it's completely hypocritical. I'm not convinced anyone's learned a lesson from this.

需要澄清的是，我并不认为应该停播或审查吉米·坎摩尔的节目。我很确定他的节目明年不会回归，因为收视率太低了。我觉得根本没有审查的必要。虽然使用公共频谱确实有公共利益要求，但现在似乎没人能就什么是公共利益达成共识了。

And just to be clear, I don't think Jimmy Kimmel should be taken off the air or censored or whatever. I'm pretty sure that his show is not gonna be back next year because it's got such low ratings. I don't think there's really a need to censor him. It is true that there is a public interest requirement for using public spectrum, but nobody seems to agree anymore on on what's in the public interest.

所以我完全赞同你上次说的。我们干脆拍卖掉那些频谱资源。我认为我们不再需要那些频谱了，现在我们有互联网这个东西，根本不需要广播电视了。政府也不应该再——

So I completely agree with what you said last time. We just got to auction off that spectrum. I don't think we don't need that spectrum. We have the thing called the Internet now, and so we no longer need broadcast television. And there there shouldn't be a government regulated

没错。

Right.

广播电视系统由他们来决定什么是合适的内容、什么符合公共利益。在理应完全支持言论自由的市场上，政府这样做根本不合理。

Broadcast television system where they're deciding what is and isn't appropriate content and in the public interest. That just doesn't make sense for the government to do in a market that's supposed to fully support free speech.

是的。

Yes.

我也同意，确实如此。我认为吉米·坎摩尔的问题应该由那些花钱让他上电视的人来决定，他们可以自行选择——如果没人看，自然会停播；如果观众爱看，就会继续保留。这是他们的权利。我们不该，你知道，我认为以‘冒犯性言论’为由封杀或禁止某人毫无道理。

And I agree I agree. I think I think the Jimmy Kimmel issue should be up to the people that are spending their money to put Jimmy Kimmel on the air, and they can decide what they wanna do with you know, if no one watches it, they'll take them off. And if people watch it, they'll keep them on. That's that's their decision. We shouldn't, you know I don't think that it makes sense to, quote, cancel, or ban someone for saying something that's offensive.

而且我觉得如果一方开了这个头，最终另一方也会效仿。不过这在言论自由的倡导中早已是老生常谈了。

And I think that if you do it on one side, eventually, it'll happen on the other side. That but that's a tried and true point in free speech advocacy, obviously.