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随着市场的发展，税务优化已成为现代投资组合构建的基本要素。
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Nuveen brings together municipal bond expertise, comprehensive tax planning resources, and direct indexing capabilities to help build portfolios designed for after tax performance.
从自动税务损失收割到信用研究专长，Nuveen提供整合型解决方案，回应投资者最关心的税务问题。
From automated tax loss harvesting to credit research expertise, Nuveen offers integrated solutions that address the tax considerations investors care about most.
Nuveen，税务优化的未来。
Nuveen, the future of tax optimization.
访问nuveen.com了解更多信息。
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投资涉及风险。
Investing involves risk.
可能损失本金。
Principal loss is possible.
在Janus Henderson投资者公司，我们相信携手合作才能更好地工作，就像将您的投资规划与我们的深入策略相结合，您的宝贵资产与我们的宝贵见解相融合，您的使命与我们的愿景相一致。
At Janus Henderson Investors, we believe working together is the way to work better, like combining your portfolio plans and our in-depth strategy, your valued assets and our valuable insights, your mission and our vision.
始终和谐协作，寻找合适的投资机会。
Always working in perfect harmony to find the right investment opportunities.
Janus Henderson投资者公司，共同投资更美好的未来。
Janus Henderson Investors, investing in a brighter future together.
访问janushenderson.com。
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欢迎收听《动物精神》，一档关于市场、生活与投资的节目。
Welcome to Animal Spirits, a show about markets, life, and investing.
请跟随迈克尔·巴特尼克和本·卡尔森，了解他们正在阅读、写作和观看的内容。
Join Michael Batnick and Ben Carlson as they talk about what they're reading, writing, and watching.
迈克尔和本表达的所有观点均为他们个人意见，不代表Ritholtz财富管理公司的立场。
All opinions expressed by Michael and Ben are solely their own opinion and do not reflect the opinion of Ritholtz Wealth Management.
本播客仅作信息参考，不应作为任何投资决策的依据。
This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon for any investment decisions.
Ritholtz 财富管理的客户可能持有本播客中讨论的证券。
Clients of Ritholtz Wealth Management may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this podcast.
欢迎收听迈克尔和本的《动物精神》。
Welcome to Animal Spirits with Michael and Ben.
最近时间感觉非常奇怪。
Time is feeling very weird these days.
我不确定这是新现象，还是已经这样很久了。
I don't know if that's new or if it's been this way for a while.
我觉得上一期节目好像已经是两个月前的事了。
Let last week's episode felt like two months ago is where I'm going with this.
我们的大脑是否还没进化到足以应对我们所接触到的如此海量信息？
Is it fair to say that our brains have not evolved enough to handle as much information as we have
在新闻方面？
in news?
太多了。
Too much.
我就是那样，是的。
I was it yeah.
这是信息过载。
It's it's overload.
确实如此。
It really is.
好的。
Okay.
你想从哪里开始？
Where do you wanna start?
我们从操作开始吧，那个叫什么来着？
Let's start with operate what is it called?
行动怒火？
Operation Fury?
史诗怒火？
Epic Fury?
他们管这个叫什么？
What do they call in this thing?
我不知道。
I don't know.
在我看来，这听起来像一部漫威电影。
That sounds like an Avengers movie to me.
不是我编的。
Did I make that no.
肯定是的。
It's gotta be.
我不确定
I don't if
他们
they
把整个事情都编出来了。
made the whole thing up.
在我们深入细节之前，我有个问题想问你。
Do I got a question for you before we get into, like, the nitty gritty here.
我的观点是，投资者基本上已经学会忽略地缘政治事件。
My thesis is investors have more or less learned to ignore geopolitical events.
好的。
Okay.
行动：史诗之怒。
Operation Epic Fury.
是的。
Yeah.
不。
No.
我猜对了。
I nailed it.
好的。
Okay.
我们昨天就这么想的。
We thought that yesterday.
不。
No.
但我说这个是因为，似乎在过去十到十五年里，情况一直是这样：嘿。
But I'm I'm saying so that seems to be the thing, like, for the last, I don't know, ten or fifteen years, it's kinda like, hey.
听好了。
Listen.
什么都不重要。
Nothing matters.
我们已经明白了。
We've learned this.
你认为这最终会不会变成一个明斯基时刻的问题？即人们对新闻头条过于冷漠，最终当发现事情真的严重时，另一边就会爆发恐慌。
Do you think that's like a Minsky moment problem eventually where there's too much apathy towards headlines and eventually, like, there's gonna be panic on the other side of it if like, oh, this is actually kinda real.
有没有
Is there
很高兴你这么说，本。
Glad you said that, Ben.
昨天。
Yesterday.
所以开盘时期货并没有大幅下跌。
So futures were down not even sharply at the open.
我的意思是，只跌了1%。
I mean, it was like 1%.
我觉得这真的什么意义都没有。
I think it was really sort of nothing with nothing.
但昨天，所以我们是在周二盘前录制这段内容。
But yesterday so we're taping this premarket on Tuesday.
昨天VIX指数收于12.1，为当日低点。
The VIX closed at 1 21 yesterday at the low of the day.
标普500指数上涨了6个基点。
The S and P 500 was up six basis points.
我们有241只股票上涨，262只股票下跌。
We had 241 advancers and 262 decliners.
所以这里也是毫无动静。
So nothing with nothing there.
有趣的是，小盘股上涨了90个基点。
Small caps, curiously rallied 90 basis points.
我说有趣是因为，大盘股并没有上涨，但利率却飙升了，这通常对小型公司不利。
And I say curiously because, well, large caps didn't rally, but interest rates spiked, usually not great for smaller companies.
美元大幅上涨。
The dollar ripped.
黄金上涨了1%。
Gold was up 1%.
比特币上涨了5%。
Bitcoin was up 5%.
所以昨天收盘时，确实是这样。
So at the end of the day yesterday, it was yeah.
我想投资者们正在忽略这一点，而历史上这通常是正确的做法。
I guess investors are looking past this, which has been historically the right move.
这些现在是短期的干扰吗？显然，我不是经济学家。
Are these short term disruptions now, obviously, I'm not am economics.
对吧？
Right?
我们在谈论股市。
We're talking about the stock market.
我们这档节目不涉及这方面的社会层面，那超出了我们的范围。
We we don't do the the human side of this on the show that's beyond our scope.
但是
But
没人想听我们谈论这个地缘政治问题。
No one wants to hear us talk about that, the geopolitics of this.
但从市场角度来看，归根结底，还是说，是的。
But just from the market's point of view, at the end of the day, said, yeah.
我们觉得，是的，这说得通。
We felt like, yeah, this makes sense.
因为只要公司的收益没有出现巨大动荡，投资者又何必对短期噪音做出反应呢？
Because as long as there's not massive disruption to companies' earnings, then why should investors react to the short term noise?
现在是周二早上，回顾昨天的那种自满情绪，以 hindsight 来看，今天早上显得很愚蠢。
Now it's Tuesday morning, and a lot of the, say, complacency of yesterday with the benefit of hindsight seems to look foolish this morning.
我们等着看市场收盘情况吧，但标普指数已经大幅下跌。
We'll see where the markets close, but the S and P is down sharply.
今天早上明显是风险规避的氛围。
It is a it is a definite risk off morning today.
所以，试图根据新闻头条去猜测未来24小时会发生什么，这显然是徒劳的。
So maybe the perils of trying to, you know, guess what's gonna happen in the next twenty four hours on headlines is a fool's errand, obviously.
但这确实是正确的做法。
But that that is the right move, though.
从历史上看，忽视新闻头条一直是正确的选择。
Ignoring the headlines historically has been the right move.
即使出现抛售，对这类事情反应过度也不是明智的投资决策。
And even if you get a a sell off, it's overreacting to these types of things is not a not a smart investment decision.
但我觉得你两分钟前说的这一点很有趣，因为终归会有一些地缘政治事件爆发，并产生实际影响。
But I think the thing that you said two minutes ago is interesting because at some point, there likely will be a Chileopolitical flare up that might have actual ramifications
有些事情终究会变得重要。
for Something's gonna matter eventually.
还不够。
Not enough.
昨天市场反应中令人好奇的部分是利率。
The curious the curious part about yesterday's reaction in in the market was interest rates.
因为通常在这种避险新闻出现时，人们会涌向国债，导致收益率下降，但昨天却发生了相反的情况，因为人们认为这将导致某种供应冲击，投入品价格将上涨。
Because, typically, when you have this sort of risk off type of news, then people flock to treasuries, bringing yields down, and the opposite happened yesterday because the thinking is that this is going to be some sort of a supply shock and input prices are going to rise.
是的。
Yeah.
通货膨胀。
Inflation.
应该是通胀的。
Should be inflationary.
所以昨天，我想问你一个问题。
So yesterday, I think here's a question for you.
为什么他们叫它布伦特原油呢？
I I think it's why do they call it Brent oil?
是一个
Was a
有个叫布伦特的人，这是八十年代给他们起的名字。
guy named Brent is a name they gave people in the eighties.
你知道，就是个叫布伦特的人。
You know, it was a guy, Brent.
他有龅牙，有一天在大学里他叫布伦特。
He had buck teeth, and he was one day Brent in college.
是的。
Yeah.
我们都知道一个叫Brent的人。
We all knew a Brent.
我不确定。
I I don't know.
所以，不管怎样，昨天上涨了8%。
So, anyway, it was up 8% yesterday.
它再次飙升了。
It surged again.
我觉得今天上涨了7%或8%。
I think it's up seven or 8% today.
所以，显然，一个主要的担忧是通货膨胀。
So, obviously, one of the big worries is, okay, inflation.
这就是利率上升的原因。
That's why rates are up.
因为，就像你说的，供应冲击和油价上涨，能源价格更高。
Because, you know, like you said, supply shock and oil prices higher, energy prices higher.
在整个欧洲，能源价格正在急剧上涨。
Across Europe, energy prices are ripping higher.
布伦特是个十足的碟片迷。
Brent is a total disc guy.
是的。
Yeah.
他就是那种人。
He's a that guy.
嘿。
Hey.
他来了。
There he is.
所以，担忧就在于通货膨胀。
So that's the worry is inflation.
因此，迈克尔·安东内利发给我们这张标普指数自1920年以来的图表。
So Michael Antonelli sent us this this chart of the S and P going back to the 1920.
我不认识这个人。
I don't know who this is.
我想我无法确定这来自哪里，但显然，一旦发生战争，情况就会遍布各处。
I think I I can't tell who where this came from, but it just shows when war happens, and it's all over the the map, of course.
基本上每两年就会爆发一场战争。
There's like a war every two years essentially.
每五年，战争就层出不穷。
Five years, tons of war.
我稍后会在推荐部分提到这一点，但这里确实出现了这种情况，这并不是什么新发现。
I'm gonna get to this later in recommendations, but it does just appear, and this is not a novel observation here.
这是我们人类的一种本能行为——发动战争。
This is just something we do as a species, Go to war.
是的。
Yeah.
所以我正在读一本历史书，这是其中一章的开篇内容。
So I'm reading this this history book, and here's one of the opening chapters.
我以为这句话说的是，世界历史悲哀地并非一首优美的诗。
I thought this this quote says, the history of the world is sadly not a pretty poem.
它很少有变化，几乎总是那些不愉快的事情一再重复发生。
It offers little variety, and it nearly always and it it is nearly always the unpleasant things that are repeated over and over again.
他谈到，人类的历史就是人们不断试图征服彼此，好领袖与坏领袖的较量，而这正是我们的本性。
And he was talking about how, like, the history of the world, of us, is just people trying to conquer each other, good leaders versus bad leaders, and this is just who we are, think.
我认为很多人愿意假设，哦，作为更文明的社会，我们已经超越了这一切，但显然并没有。
I I think a lot of people would like to assume, oh, we're kinda past that as a more civilized society, but obviously, we're not.
战争就是我们的一部分，我认为这深植于我们的基因中。
Like, war is just part of our I think it's in our DNA.
是的。
Yeah.
不幸的是。
Unfortunately.
石油市场反应较少的原因在于，我们生产和消费石油的方式已经发生了巨大变化。
The reason why there's been less reactions in the oil market is because the dynamics of how we produce and consume oil has changed dramatically.
是的。
Yeah.
我们现在是能源生产国，这就是为什么这些情况对欧洲的影响比对我们更大。
We're energy producers now in The US, and that's why this stuff hits places like Europe worse than it hits us.
所以我看到他们的天然气价格上涨了35%。
So I saw their natural gas prices are up 35%.
欧洲股市遭受重创。
European stocks are getting rocked.
我的意思是，显然这会影响他们的收益。
I mean, obviously, is this is go this is going to impact their earnings.
当然，这种状况能持续多久，所有这些都存在疑问，但毫无疑问，至少会产生一些影响。
Obviously, the sustainability of it is, you know, how long this lasts, all of that is in question, but there's no doubt there's at least going to be some impact.
所以哈维尔·布拉斯昨天在推特上说，如果布伦特原油市场以当前水平收盘，上涨了7.5%，这大约是实际收盘涨幅，单日涨幅将位列第五十三大。
So Javier Blas tweeted yesterday, if the Brent market closed at current levels, up seven and a half percent, which is about where it closed, the one day percentage increase would rank as the fifty third largest.
第五十三。
Fifty third.
他说，美国和以色列对伊朗的打击、最高领袖的遇害、霍尔木兹海峡的混乱，以及整个中东地区的报复行动，共同导致了历史上第五十三大的单日百分比涨幅。
He said US Israel strikes on Iran, killing of the supreme leader, chaos in Hormuz, retaliation across the Middle East, all of that delivers the fifty third largest one day percent jump.
是的。
Yeah.
因此，从市场角度来看，中东的重要性已不如从前。
So the The Middle East market wise is not as important as it once was.
我想，我们即将验证这一理论，取决于这场危机持续多久以及供应冲击的规模。
I guess we're gonna test that theory depending on how long this goes and what the supply shock is.
关键是，仅今年一年，标普500指数甚至还没有出现过3%的跌幅。
The thing is this year alone, the S and P has yet to have a 3% decline even, like a 3% drawdown.
所以，如果我们即将迎来一次调整，那么本周的图表A就是例证。
So if we're gonna have a correction, so exhibit A chart of the week.
ChartKit的Matt给我们发了这张图。
So ChartKit Matt sent us this.
标普500指数的交易日里，一直维持在历史高点3%的范围内。
Trading days, S and P is 500, has stayed within 3% of all time highs.
标普指数已经接近历史高点整整七十个交易日了。
It's been like almost seventy trading days that the S and P has been within 3% of all time highs.
所以，如果我们想找一个修正的理由，这就是了，对吧？
So this is if we're looking for an excuse for a correction, this is it, right?
投资者正在抛售一些这类资产。
Investors are selling off some of this stuff.
韩国股市遭到重创。
Korean stocks got slammed.
它们曾是表现最好的市场之一。
They were one of the best performers.
对我来说，如果我们打算痛下决心，来一次小幅修正，那现在就是个再合适不过的理由了。
To me, is a if we're gonna rip the bandit off and take a little correction, this is this is as good a reason as any.
标普指数盘前下跌1.8%，你说得完全对。
S and P is down 1.8% pre market, and you're absolutely right.
你可能会觉得，投资者从来不需要理由就过度反应，但当市场昨天还持平，而我们仍距离历史高点不到2%的时候，很难说他们是在过度反应。
You would think that investors don't investors never need an excuse to overreact, and it's hard to say that they're overreacting when the market was flat yesterday and we're still within 2% of an all time high.
我的意思是，自满是
I mean, complacency is
但如果你想找一个理由，比如我已经有了一些大额收益。
But if you wanted a reason to like, okay, I had some big gains.
让我们锁定一些利润吧。
Let's take some profits.
这是再好不过的借口了。
This is a good excuse as any.
是的。
Yeah.
我只是觉得，正是在这种时候，整个不确定性感觉比平时更强烈，对吧？
I just these are the times when the whole like uncertainty thing feels higher than usual, right?
嗯。
Mhmm.
尽管不确定性一直都很高，但我感觉现在正是时候，好好筛选一下你的信息来源。
Even though it's always high, and it's just I feel like now is the time to, like, filter out your your sources of information.
那些声称能准确预测事情会如何发展的人，几乎从来都是错的。
And the people who tell you exactly how this is gonna play out are almost never right.
你不想听这些人的话。
Those are the people you don't wanna listen to.
这件事会发生，然后那件事会发生，之后另一件事也会发生。
This is gonna happen, then this is gonna happen, and then after that, this is gonna happen.
这些人从来都不对。
Those people are never right.
人们总是告诉你事情会如何发展。
People tell you exactly how this is gonna play out.
这是我唯一要提醒大家注意的事情。
That's the only thing I would caution people against.
没人知道接下来会发生什么。
No one knows what's gonna happen.
好的。
Alright.
我们还有什么？
What else we got?
你知道吗，我之前在这里写过一篇关于上周的文章，你说感觉像过了一个月，这还挺有意思的。
And you know, so so so I I had a piece in here later about heading into last week, it's kinda funny you said it feels like a month.
彭博社上周有一篇文章说，今年利率一路暴跌，十年期国债利率几乎降到4%，债券市场去年表现惊人，今年也相当不错，但现在利率又开始飙升了。
Bloomberg had a piece last week saying that like interest rates have just been nosediving all year, and the the ten year was almost at 4%, bonds were having an unbelievable year, had a great good year last year as far as bonds go, and now rates are spiking.
巨额回购。
Monster rep.
巨额回购。
Monster rep.
我一直都在
I've been
哦，等等。
Oh, wait.
这是不是那种情况，我们担心这场战争、供应冲击，以及霍尔木兹海峡的贸易中断之类的？
Is is this one of those things that, okay, we worry about this war and the supply shock and the trade off Hormuz or whatever.
乔什总是拿这个开玩笑，因为人们总是谈论它。
Josh always makes fun of that thing because people always talk about it.
但这不是一种情况吗？不，AI比这个更重要。
But isn't this just a situation where, well, no, AI matters more than this.
我们到底在谈论什么？
What are we what are we talking about here?
这是一些人担心几周的事情，但AI才是关键，而且它是通缩的。
This is this is something people worry about for a few weeks, but AI is the thing, and that's deflationary.
对。
Right.
这又是一个王牌吗？
Is that is that a trump card again?
哦，不是。
Like, oh, nope.
抱歉。
Sorry.
不错的想法。
Good try.
试得不错。
Nice try.
你那点利率小幅上调撑不了几周，AI又会再次盖过它。
Your rates your little rate rise for a couple weeks, and then AI trumps it again.
我们现在的状况就是这样吗？
Is that where we are?
这肯定是基本情形。
That's gotta be the base case.
不。
No.
每次都是这样。
It's what happens every single time.
看起来是这样。
Seems like it.
所以，周五是的。
So yes on Friday.
周五，长期利率降至4%以下，这是许久以来的第一次，为3.95%，今天又回升到4.10%。
So on Friday, the tenure closed at under 4% for the first time in a while, Three nine five and back up to four ten today.
我一直在给我的房贷专员发邮件。
I've been emailing my my mortgage guy.
周五，我想我给他发了一个克雷默的GIF。
On Friday, I think I emailed him a GIF of Kramer.
你知道那个克雷默看赛马的场景吗？
You know the the Kramer looking at the horse race?
哦，是的。
Oh, yeah.
得了吧。
Come on.
完全搞砸了。
Totally got rugged.
这种情况很常见。
That happens.
不过，15个基点显然不是很大的变动。
15 basis points, though, is not like a huge move, obviously.
咱们坦诚地说吧。
Let's be let's be honest here.
如果你把其中一个图表压缩一下，看起来像是很大的变动，但实际上没那么大
If you if you compress one of the charts, you can make it look like a big move, but that's not that big of
的变动。
a move.
别闹了。
Think come on.
你说得对。
It's you're right.
没那么大。
It's not that big.
确实不是。
It definitely is not.
但在低于4%的情况下上涨15个基点，也不是无足轻重的。
But 15 basis points on sub 4%, it's not nothing either.
我想，如果我们讨论家庭资产负债表的话，利率上升的前景——即使只是小幅上升，也不会再下降了，而且通胀更高——
I I guess the thing, if we're talking about household balance sheets, though, the prospect of rising rates, even if they rise a little, they're not falling anymore, higher inflation.
这无论如何都不利于消费者情绪。
This is not good for consumer sentiment by any means.
是的。
No.
对。
No.
汽油价格上涨了吗？
Higher gas prices?
是的。
Yeah.
我觉得很多人可能会想：等等。
I I think a lot of people are probably going, wait.
我们能从中得到什么？
What what do we get out of this?
只是油价和供应链冲击。
Just Gas prices, supply chain shocks.
另一场战争。
Another war.
我不想代表全国发言，但我感觉这普遍不受欢迎。
I don't wanna speak for the nation, but I feel like that's generally not popular.
对。
No.
因为人们总是说，我们在中东的战争上花的钱太多了。
Because people always say, like, we spend this much more on wars in The Middle East.
那我们到底得到了什么？
Like, what do we get out of it?
是的。
I yeah.
这种情况很多。
There's a lot of that.
所以这个，是的。
So this Yeah.
消费者对这一点的情绪可能不会太好。
Consumer sentiment of this is probably not gonna be great.
对。
Yeah.
好的，这是来自标普全球的有趣信息。
Alright, this is interesting from S and P Global.
他们做过一项研究，分析了20世纪60年代股票的集中度，当时集中度非常高，都是家喻户晓的名字。
They had this thing where they looked at the concentration of stocks in the 1960s, which was a very high concentration, and it was kind of household names.
AT&T、通用汽车、通用电气、西尔斯、柯达，还有
AT and T, and GM, and GE, and Sears, and Kodak, and
AT&T和GE曾占市场15%。
AT and T and GE were 15% of the market.
疯狂吧？
Crazy, right?
所以他们展示的是，我们以前也经历过这种集中度，而这些公司后来怎么样了？现在它们在哪？
So they're showing that we've had this type of concentration before, and now what happened to these companies afterwards, and where are they now?
所以，是的，AT&T曾经几乎占了总市值的10%。
And so, yeah, AT and T was almost 10% of the total.
现在它甚至不在标普指数里了，我之前都没意识到，而所有这些公司如今在标普总市值中的占比都不到1%，这很有趣，这说明了我们现在有多么集中，以及这些公司当初是从哪里来的。
Now it's not even in the S and P anymore, which I didn't realize, and so all of these stocks are now less than a percent of the total S and P, which is interesting, and so it's saying then it shows the opposite, how concentrated we are now with where these companies came from.
摩根大通在1973年时还在标普指数里。
JPMorgan Chase was in 1973.
它们当时的权重几乎为零。
They were essentially a zero weight.
看到这种变化有多大真的很有趣，我知道人们觉得这种状态会永远持续下去，但重点是，它可能不会，变化正在加速，这些公司更替得更快。
Like, it's just interesting to see how much change there is, and I know people think this is gonna last forever, but the point is like, it's probably not, and things are happening faster, and these are moving quicker.
我仍然倾向于认为情况就是这样。
I tend to still think that's the case.
但顶部公司的更替率要低得多。
But there's been but the turnover at the top has been way lower.
那十年左右呢？
How about
十年左右。
ten years or so.
那这个呢？
How about this?
不。
No.
不。
No.
不。
No.
不。
No.
这些名字，我认为，如果你看看自2016年或2017年以来市值最高的公司名单，我并不想说这是恒定不变的，因为那显然不对。
These names, I think I think if you look at the top market cap names since 2016 or 2017, it's been I don't wanna say constant because that's that's definitely not the case.
但我认为，前15名公司的更替频率比历史上要低，我可能错了。
But I think there's been less turnover in the top 15, I could be wrong, than there has been historically.
那这个呢？
And how about this?
我们就假设这确实不成立吧。
Let's just say that sure it's not true.
这无关紧要。
Doesn't matter.
目前排名前十的公司，几乎可以肯定在两三年后仍然是前十名。
The names that are the top 10 names are almost undoubtedly going to be the top 10 names in two or three years.
对吧？
Right?
好。
K.
是这样的。
So here's the thing.
英伟达当时不在其中。
NVIDIA wasn't there.
博通当时不在其中。
Broadcom wasn't there.
特斯拉当时不在其中。
Tesla wasn't there.
摩根大通当时不在其中。
JPMorgan wasn't there.
行。
Fine.
但让我们推算两年后，假设英伟达和这些公司仍然会位列前十。
But take let's extrapolate two years and assume that NVIDIA and these names are still gonna be the top 10.
我不是在说两年，我是说十年。
I'm not not talking two years, though.
我说的是十年。
I'm talking ten years.
不。
No.
不。
No.
但到那时，这些科技巨头已经稳居前十名十多年了。
But but at that point, it will have been well over ten years with these tech giants at top.
就在2020年，英伟达还不在前十名之内。
NVIDIA wasn't in the top 10 as recently as 2020.
我想那比感觉上还要久远一些。
I guess that was longer ago than than it seems.
谷歌、苹果、亚马逊、Facebook。
Google, Apple, Amazon, Facebook.
你说得对。
You're right.
Meta，这些公司一直都在前十名。
Meta, those have been in the top 10.
加洛韦之前是什么时候写他的书的？
When did Galloway write his book before?
是2015年吗？
Was that 2015?
大概是2017年。
It's like 2017.
对。
Yeah.
这说得通。
That's fair.
你觉得
Do you think that
但在我的印象里，2017年才不过是三年前的事。
2017 was only three years ago in my head though.
没错。
So Right.
我看过一张图表，但记不清是谁发的了。
I saw a chart who I can't remember who posted this.
标普500指数公司的平均寿命基本达到了历史最低点。
The average lifespan of companies in the S and P 500 is basically at an all time low.
我认为这种情况还会持续下去。
I think that is going to continue.
我觉得在400到500名之间的公司名单会经历大量更替。
I think there's gonna be a ton of turnover in, say, names 400 through 500.
好的。
K.
这说得通。
That makes sense.
是的
Yeah.
那张图表显示，标普成分股的更替频率和公司存活时间确实低得多。
That was a towards the slot chart, that the turnover in the S and P names and how long they stick around is a lot lower.
好的。
Alright.
本·约翰逊在本周《共同基金之后》的节目中提到，二月的ETF资金流向了Plaid。
Ben Johnson tweeted at on this week's episode of life after mutual funds, ETF flows have gone to plaid.
顺便问一下，二月他们是在重拍《太空墙》吗？
February by the way, are they making are they remaking Space Walls?
还是我搞错了，是比尔拍的？
Or did I Bill make that
普尔曼的儿子要出演这部剧。
Pullman's son is gonna be in it.
比尔·普尔曼的
Bill Pullman's
我能不能跟你分享一下，我几个星期前——可能是一年前——给邓肯的关于NASA Compound的看法？
Can I give you a take I gave I gave Duncan on NASA Compound a few weeks ago, maybe twelve months ago?
我看过《太空balls》，这些年来我更喜欢《太空balls》胜过《星球大战》。
I've seen Spaceballs and enjoyed Spaceballs more than Star Wars over the years.
我从《太空balls》中获得的快乐比从《星球大战》中更多。
I've I've gotten more enjoyment out of Spaceballs than Star Wars.
我已经有十五年没看过《太空balls》了，但我之所以没看，是因为我小时候看了太多遍。
I haven't seen Spaceballs in fifteen years, but I oh, that's only because I watched it so many times as a child.
真的非常棒。
Really is great.
但这是梅尔·布鲁克斯执导的吗？
But is Mel Brooks directing it?
他都快99岁了。
He's, like, 99 years old.
我觉得是的。
I think he is.
好的。
Okay.
行吧。
Alright.
没人需要这个，但随它吧。
Nobody needs that, but whatever.
我会看的。
I'll watch it
就为了这个。
for this.
‘没人需要这个’是如今好莱坞的绝佳标语。
Nobody needs that is a great tagline for Hollywood these days.
你知道吗？
Well, you know what?
我昨晚看了一部电影。
I saw a movie last night.
展开剩余字幕（还有 480 条）
我们会在节目后面再聊这个。
I'll talk we'll we'll talk about it later in the show.
但他们正在制作《真人快打2》，也就是这次重启版的续集。
But they're making a Mortal Kombat two they're making Mortal Kombat sequel of the reboot.
明白吗？
Okay?
1990年的原版，我不太记得了，大概是7年左右吧，那时候……
The original one in 1990, I don't know, '7, whenever it Something, was
是的，是1994年。
yeah, '94.
那部电影太糟糕了，那个前臂角色是谁？
Was horrible because what was the guy with the forearms?
天啊，我要把这人的名字说错了。
I'm oh, I'm gonna butcher this guy's name.
Ganaka？
Ganaka?
不。
No.
我想不起来了，但我
I can't remember, but I
巴拉卡。
Baraka.
不。
No.
不是巴拉卡。
Not Baraka.
巴拉卡是那个长着剃刀般牙齿的人。
Baraka was the guy that lit with the razor teeth.
好的。
Okay.
四臂男子。
Four armed man.
真人快打。
Mortal combat.
对不起。
I'm sorry.
99%的观众根本不在乎这个。
The 99% of the audience cannot give a shit about this.
哦，戈罗。
Oh, Goro.
什么？
What?
我叫他甘卡？
I call him Ganaka?
K。
K.
我
I
我有个朋友。
had a friend that.
那是数学喷雾吗？
Was that the math spray?
哦，那是班aka。
Oh, that's Banaka.
我中学时有个朋友，特别爱玩《真人快打》。
I had a friend in middle school who would run Mortal Kombat.
他会把硬币投进机器，然后说‘该我了’，接着就直接开打。
He'd put the the quarter on the machine, be like, I'm next, and he would just run.
他就这么一直打下去。
He he would run it.
那时候，街机厅才是最酷的地方。
And the arcade, that was where it was at.
那些孩子真酷。
Those those kids were cool.
那些能完全统治整个桌台的人。
Ones that could just dominate the table.
不管怎样，他们拍了个重启版，我想我在疫情期间看过。
Anyhoo, so they did a reboot, and I think I saw this during the pandemic.
这个重启版太糟糕了。
And the reboot was so bad.
真的，根本没人需要这部电影。
Like, truly, one of these, like, nobody needs this movie.
他们还要拍续集。
And they're making a sequel.
好莱坞的现状真是令人唏嘘。
Sad state of affairs in Hollywood.
他们居然要为一部糟糕的重启版拍续集。
They're making a sequel to a horrible reboot.
确实如此。
It really is.
好吧。
Alright.
本·约翰逊说了什么？
What did Ben what did Ben Johnson say?
啊，对。
Ah, yes.
二月还没结束，投资者今年已经投入了3280亿美元的新资金到ETF领域。
So February isn't even over yet, and investors have already put $328,000,000,000 in new money to work in the ETF rapper this year.
这比去年的纪录增长了约64%。
That is about 64% ahead of last year's record banking pace.
天哪。
Dang.
所有人都对系统中存在如此巨额的资金感到震惊。
So all of these shocked about how much money there is in the system.
有人给我们发了邮件。
Somebody emailed us.
顺便说一下，这周我们收到了很多邮件，非常感谢大家的来信。
We got a lot of emails this week, by the way, and appreciate all of them.
谢谢你们，各位。
So thank you, guys.
有人提到一个关于为什么人们普遍不快乐的理论，那就是K形曲线的底部，由于通货膨胀而备受压迫，显然不快乐。
Somebody said one of the theories of why people are just why society is unhappy in general you have the lower shape of the k, which is unhappy for obvious reasons, crushed by inflation.
而即使是K形曲线顶端的人群。
And then even people at the upper end of the k.
就是钱太多了。
Like, there's just just too much money.
但产能却不够。
There's not enough capacity.
无论你去哪里，都是排长队。
Everywhere you go, there's lines.
不管你有多少钱。
It doesn't matter how much money you have.
休息室总是人满为患。
The lounges are always full.
我曾经想过这个问题。
I thought about this.
上周末我带着新冠去看尼克斯队的比赛，根本动不了。
I I took COVID to the Knicks game over the weekend, and you couldn't I couldn't move.
简直难以置信。
Like, it's just unbelievable.
系统里有这么多钱，但没人感到快乐。
There is so much money in the system, and nobody's happy.
我知道说‘没人’有点夸张，但为了强调效果嘛。
I know nobody is a stretch, but, you know, set for effect.
那些能花钱插队的人，其实更痛苦。
People who can who can afford to cut the line, they're even more miserable though.
那些亿万富翁。
The billionaires.
对吧？
Right?
哦，别管那些亿万富翁了。
Oh, forget about the billionaires.
哦，我没法说亿万富翁是不是不快乐。
Oh, I don't I I I can't can't speak for billionaires being miserable.
我觉得这有点疯狂。
I think that's kind of insane.
但当我们去的时候
But when I when we when we went to
你有看过这些人发推文吗？
Have you seen these people tweet?
这些人比任何人都更不快乐。
These people are way more miserable than anyone good.
你觉得比尔·阿克曼代表所有亿万富翁吗？
You think Bill Ackman is every billionaire?
我不会说亿万富翁都很痛苦。
I I don't I'm not gonna say that billionaires are miserable.
我不认识任何亿万富翁。
May I don't know any billionaires.
也许他们确实如此。
Maybe they are.
也许吧。当我们二月去巴哈马时，CLEAR通道的队伍几乎排到了门口，人们都感到困惑。
Maybe they So when we went to The Bahamas February, the line for CLEAR was almost at the door, and people were bewildered.
CLEAR是一种可以扫描你眼睛的服务，理论上应该比预检更快，但现在人人都在用。
So Clear is a service that allows you to like scan your eyes and it should be theoretically faster than PreCheck, but now everybody has it.
那他们得再搞个比CLEAR更快的服务了。
So they're gonna have to create another thing that's ahead of Clear.
他们需要推出CLEAR高级版或者CLEAR++。
They need like Clear Premium or Clear plus plus.
CLEAR可能会有七种不同等级。
There's gonna be like seven tiers of Clear.
Clear 就是比 PreCheck 更快的服务，是的。
Clear is like the thing ahead of PreCheck, yeah.
好的。
Okay.
回到 ETF 这个话题，难道这不是只是婴儿潮一代继续推动的趋势吗？他们把所有的 401(k) 资产都卖出并转投，导致共同基金或 CTF 的规模变得更大？
So getting back to the ETF thing, isn't this just gonna be are baby boomers just going to continue to push this forward where like the the mutual funds or a CTF is just gonna get wider because they're selling all their four zero k assets and they're rolling them over?
好的。
Okay.
这说得通。
That makes sense.
但你不觉得惯性会压倒这种趋势吗？
But don't you think inertia overwhelms that?
为什么有人会突然把他们的 401(k) 资产转出来，把标普 500 指数共同基金换成 SPY 呢？
Like, why would somebody roll over their four zero one ks and all of a sudden trade an S and P 500 mutual fund for SPY?
确实如此。
True.
他们不会的。
They wouldn't.
所以我确信这件事正在发生，因为很多——
So I know for a fact that this is happening because a lot of-
别担心，那RMDs呢？
Don't worry, how about RMDs?
你必须卖出一些资产来缴税，然后你不花掉这笔钱，而是重新投入市场。
You have to sell something to pay taxes, then instead of spending it, I'm going to put it back in the market.
不。
No.
别别说‘不’了。
Don't no.
RMDs必须从你的账户中取出。
RMDs have to come out of your account.
是的。
Yeah.
我说的是你把它卖了。
I'm saying you sell it.
哦哦，我明白了。
Oh oh, I understand.
好的。
Okay.
我知道有人这么做。
Go into I know people do that.
所以我们知道，财务顾问会在合格账户中将这些共同基金转换为ETF。
So we know that financial advisers are whacking these mutual funds and getting them into ETFs if it's in a qualified account.
所以这确实是其中一部分，但并不是全部。
So that's definitely part of the pie, but it's not the whole pie.
总之，重点是，这种情况仍在持续，是的。
Like, anyway, the point is there's just there continues to be Yes.
系统里有大量的资金，这显然扭曲了市场。
A lot of money in the system, and it's obviously distorting things.
好吧。
Alright.
我们来谈谈本周的AI新闻。
Let's talk about the AI story of the week.
这个话题稍微渗透到了大众文化中。
This one kinda jumped into like civilian zeitgeist a little bit.
我从一些朋友和客户那里听说了这件事，就是Block公司的杰克·多西的事情。
I heard from some friends on this, and I heard from some clients on this, the Block, the Jack Dorsey thing from Block.
所以杰克·多西发了一条推文，我猜他们当然事先通知了员工，但大致意思是：听着，我们要裁员40%。
So Jack Dorsey put out a tweet, and I guess I'm sure they told the employees before obviously, but they basically said, hey listen, we're cutting our staff by 40%.
这是一个巨大的数字。
Huge number.
他说这是因为AI。
And he says AI is the reason.
现在这里有两个团队，明白吗？
And now there's two teams on this, okay?
一个团队认为，就这样了。
One team goes, that's it.
结束了。
It's over.
完了。
It's done.
每家公司都会经历这种情况。
This is gonna happen to every company.
做好准备吧。
Get ready for it.
但另一些人说，等等，等等，等等，让我们提供一些背景信息。我认为，只要我们还在争论这个问题，AI的主题就会是：一些人说，每个案例都会变成‘看吧，我早跟你们说了，你们这些白领完蛋了’，而另一些人则说，不，不，不，等等，等等，我的观点是对此保持开放态度，因为我不认为你愿意站队，因为我仍然不确定这最终会如何发展。
And other people, woah, woah, woah, let's provide some context here, and I think that this is going to be the AI theme for as long as we're arguing about this, is some people going, every anecdote is gonna go, see, I told you, you white collar workers are nuked, and other people are going, no, no, no, wait, wait, wait, and my whole thing is like strong opinions loosely held on this because I don't think you wanna be on a team with this because I I I still don't I'm not sure how this is going to work out.
但很多人说，我们收到了一位在Block工作的人的邮件，说今天被裁了。
But a lot of people said and we got an email from someone who works at Block and said, got laid off today.
这太糟糕了。
This sucks.
所以你内心跟自己玩的心理游戏是：等等，如果这真的是人工智能呢？
And so the head games you hit with yourself there is, wait, what if this was really AI?
如果我的职业生涯完了怎么办？
What if my career is screwed?
对吧？
Right?
再加上被裁员，显然，被裁员从来都不是一件愉快的事。
That to go along with getting laid off like, getting laid off is never a fun process, obviously.
但如果你心里想着：如果我再也找不到一份我想要的工作怎么办？
But if you're if you're having that thought in your head, like, what if I'm not gonna be able to find another job that I want to?
这才是真正会折磨你的事情。
Like, that is the thing that has to screw with you.
很多人说：不会。
And a lot of people said, no.
不会。
No.
不。
No.
杰克在找借口。
Jack is making an excuse.
这太荒谬了。
This is ridiculous.
这家公司在疫情前两年过度招聘了。
This company overhired so much during the first couple years of the pandemic.
这是他们在调整规模。
This is them rightsizing the ship.
这是我的看法。
Here's my take.
我觉得迈尔斯说得最好。
I thought Miles put it best.
迈尔斯经常发推文说，许多看似与人工智能有关的事情，实际上都与疫情时期的经济有关。
Miles often tweeted, so many things that appear to be about AI are actually about the pandemic economy.
是的。
Yes.
谢谢你，史蒂夫·卡瑞尔的礼物。
Thank you, Steve Carell gift.
我认为他完全正确。
Is I think I think he's a 100% correct.
我认为市场对此的反应——盘后股价立即上涨了25%——太糟糕了。
I think that the market's reaction to this up 25% immediately in the after hours sucks.
这对很多人来说是最困难的部分。
That was the hard part for a lot of people.
天哪。
It's like, oh gosh.
对。
Yeah.
我不认为原因本身一定重要。
I don't think I don't think the reason necessarily matters.
我认为背景很重要。
I think context is important.
但那些被裁员的人会因为这是疫情故事而感觉好些吗？
But does anybody who's laid off feel better because this is a pandemic story?
那些现在感到焦虑的人会因为这是对疫情期间AI招聘的调整而感觉好些吗？
Does anybody who's under who's feeling anxious right now feel better because this is a correction for the for the AI for the pandemic hiring?
这并不重要。
It doesn't matter.
不幸的是，公司会利用这一点作为借口，看看市场是如何反应的。
And unfortunately, companies are going to use this as cover because look at how the market is reacting.
我认为杰克果断采取行动是对的，因为连续不断的裁员会严重打击士气，这很明显。
I thought that Jack was smart to rip off the band aid because a consecutive series of cuts just destroys morale, obviously.
是的，他们想大干一场。
Yeah, they wanted to go big.
但这里还有另一点。
But here's the thing too.
背景是这家公司2022年股价暴跌了80%。
The context is this is a company that crashed 80% in 2022.
这并不重要。
It doesn't matter.
我们根本没被涵盖。
Were covered at all.
我说的是，他们必须做点什么。
I'm saying they needed to do something.
股价被彻底打垮了。
The stock price got smoked.
对，没错。
Right, right.
所以这是在进行账户重组。
So there's an account restructuring.
他发了推文，如果你还需要确认的话，AI就是降低成本的终极借口。
He tweeted, in case you need confirmation that AI is the ultimate excuse to cut costs.
是的。
Yes.
所以有传言称瑞银将在2026年第四季度取消餐补。
So rumor UBS to phase out meal stipend in q four twenty twenty six.
为什么？
Why?
因为AI不需要吃饭？
Because AI doesn't need to eat?
而且很多人也说，听好了。
And a lot of people also said, listen.
《华尔街日报》上有一篇报道，我完全忘了，黑人曾从Jay Z手中买下过一个头衔，有史以来有谁用过这项服务吗？
There was a story in the Wall Street Journal that I forgot I totally forgot that black bought title from Jay Z, which was has anyone in the history of music ever used that service?
他们举办了一场6000万美元的派对，所以人们开始质疑他作为CEO的信誉，说他搞砸了，因为疫情前他们只有4000名员工，几年内却膨胀到了一万二到一万三千人。
They threw like a $60,000,000 party that people so people are saying people are questioning his bona fides as CEO, like saying he screwed up because they went from pre pandemic, they had 4,000 employees, and they went all the way to over 12,000, 13,000 in the matter of years.
所以，嘿，这不过是让公司回归合理规模罢了。
So like, hey, this is rightsizing the ship.
显然，你说得对。
Obviously, again, you're right.
这并不能解决问题，但我觉得这里的背景信息是必要的。
That doesn't help anything, but the context I think is necessary here.
而且
And
但如果再出现四个这样的情况，我们该怎么办？
But what do we do when there's, like, four more of these?
还会再出现四个这样的情况。
There are going to be four more of these.
你难道不觉得它们会来吗？
You don't think that they're coming?
当然。
Course.
看看股价的表现吧。
Look what the stock did.
投资者说，市场是一个冰冷无情的地方。
The investor said, the markets are a cold, cold place.
投资者在困境中依然欢呼。
Investors cheer in misery.
不过，股市总是这样无情。
The stock market is always heartless, though, like this.
我知道，就像
I know, Like
一位CEO被解雇了，股价却上涨了10%之类的。
a CEO I gets fired and the stock jumps 10% or something.
股市是无情的，你说得对。
The stock market is heartless, and you're right.
会有一些时候，利润率比人更重要，但这些轶事，我得等到看到生产率数据，或者失业率真正上升时才能相信。
There are gonna be times when it's like the profit margins matter more than the people, but these anecdotes, I'm gonna have to wait till I see it in the productivity data or I see it in the unemployment rate really rising.
你不能光凭几个轶事就告诉我，这就是全部，这就是终点。
You can't just give me anecdotes to say this is it, this is the end.
在看到数据之前，我不会就此罢休。
I'm not gonna leave that until I see the data.
是的。
Yeah.
感觉上周很多时间都处于短期‘软件已死’的恐惧顶峰。
It feels like last week a lot of last week was peak fear in the short term for software is dead.
那是萨特里尼低点，我绝对不是在开玩笑说这话。
It was the Satrini bottom, and I'm not I'm definitely not like, I don't say that to poke fun.
我以为他真的做到了。
I thought I thought he did it.
他通过这篇帖子实际上做了一件公益之事，我们上周还讨论过。
He actually did a public service with this post, which we spoke about last week.
公益之事？
Public service?
别开玩笑了。
Come on.
他们写的每一样东西都会是错的。
Everything they wrote is gonna be wrong.
这根本不是公共服务。
That's not a public service.
这是恐吓手段。
That's scare tactic.
我不这么认为。
I don't think so.
他们并不是搞恐吓的机构。
They're not a scare tactic shop.
这根本不是他们的风格。
Like, that's not their MO.
可能是服务
Service might
好吧，展示品而已，我没读过任何他们的研究。
Well, show piece, I don't I've never read any of research.
对我来说，那篇文章就是一篇制造恐慌的文章。
That piece to me was a scare piece.
确实，那是一种制造恐慌的文章。
There's there's sort a scare piece.
我的意思是，当然，那是一篇制造恐慌的文章。
Mean, of course, was a scare piece.
它把人们吓坏了。
It scared the shit out of people.
但我觉得，我的意思是，我不认为他们的本意如此。事实上，他在乔和特蕾西的播客上说过，如果我知道这篇文章会大规模传播，我就不会点名任何个股。
But I think was like I don't think I don't think the intent was in fact, they he said on Joe and Tracy's podcast, if I knew that it was gonna go mega viral, I wouldn't have named any individual stocks.
没错。
That's true.
你根本不知道这些文章中有多少会走红。
You don't you don't know how how many of these pieces are gonna go viral.
这说得对。
That's fair.
是的。
Yeah.
他怎么可能知道呢？
How how would he have known?
不管怎样，我认为市场最近已经稍微平静了一些。Intuit 昨天的表现，可以说是在软件领域中对人工智能依赖最深的公司之一吗？
Anyhoo, I think I think the market has since settled down a little bit Intuit yesterday, which is arguably is there any company that is more exposed to AI on the software side?
Intuit 拥有 TurboTax、Mailchimp 和 Credit Karma，还有另一个重要的品牌。
So Intuit is TurboTax and Mailchimp and Credit Karma, and there's one other big brand that they have.
Intuit 在过去五天里上涨了 17%。
And Intuit was up 17% over the last five days.
现在，这显然是一个低点。
Now it is it is it I mean, obviously, that was a bottom.
至于这是否是软件类股票的底部，大概不是。
Whether or not this this is the bottom for the software stocks, probably not.
这并不重要。
Doesn't matter.
是的。
Yeah.
不过，这家公司股价也下跌了50%，所以这次反弹是
Well, that's another but the company was also down 50%, so that bounce was
是的。
Yeah.
正在回升。
Coming.
所以Citadel针对这篇Trini的文章发表了回应，并分享了他们招聘软件工程师的职位信息，人们惊呼：天哪。
So Citadel wrote a response to this Trini piece, and they shared this job postings for software engineers, and people go, oh my gosh.
软件工程师的职位招聘正在增加。
Job postings for software engineers are rising.
但其他人说：不，不，不，等等。
And then other people go, no, no, no, wait.
再宏观一点看，看看整体的招聘情况。
Look at zoom out a little bit and look at the hiring.
但关于软件工程师的弗雷德数据只追溯到2020年，因此过去两年软件工程师出现了大规模过度招聘，而现在又出现反向调整，所以这两种情况都不正常。
But this the data for on Fred for software engineers only goes back to 2020, so there was this massive over hiring of software engineers for two years, and then now there's a so neither of these things are normal.
是的。
Yeah.
对吧？
Right?
这里的关键在于，你说得对，这正是难点所在。
That's that's that's the hard part about the context here is you're right.
迈尔斯的观点是，疫情带来的影响我们还在消化，这一点非常正确。
Miles' idea that the pandemic, we're still working stuff off, that is very true.
我非常认同这一点。
I'm a big believer there.
好吧，我听了马克·安德森在伦尼的通讯节目中的访谈。
All right, so I listened to Marc Andreessen on this Lenny's newsletter.
我以前从未听过这个播客，但这次的内容可能是我对市场最乐观、最积极的见解了。
I've never heard of this podcast before, but this is the kind of thing this was probably the most bullish, like, optimistic Glass Staphel take on Market
开盘了。
is open.
天哪。
Holy shit.
国际股票下跌了4%。
International stocks are down 4%.
EFA开盘后下跌了4%。
EFA is down 4% of the open.
这真是大幅下跌。
That is that is a big drop.
VIX现在是26。
VIX is at 26.
哇。
Wow.
新兴市场下跌了5.6%。
Emerging markets are down 5.6%.
天啊。
Holy shit.
这可真够大的。
That's a big one.
所以仅这十年，对我来说就再次说明欧洲必须放宽财政限制，不能再一味依赖这种模式了。
So this this decade alone to me seems like another reason for Europe to, like, loosen the purse strings and be like, we have to get we can't just keep relying on this.
白银又下跌了9%。
Silver's down 9% again.
不可思议的波动，哇。
Unbelievable moves, wow.
好吧，从来不会无聊。
Okay, never a dull moment.
我听到鹅叫声了。
I heard the geese.
是鹅吗？
Is that the geese?
是的。
Yes.
那些狗没用。
The the the dogs didn't work.
大雁又飞回来了。
The geese migrated back.
听起来像是有人坐在长椅上，吱呀吱呀地晃。
It sounds like somebody on a on a bench that's, like, squeaking.
你懂我的意思吧？
You know what I mean?
就像有人在摇晃长椅。
Like, somebody rocking on a bench.
它们整天就互相嘎嘎叫。
They just squawk at each other all day.
小猫和大雁最烦人了。
The kitteen and geese are the worst.
最糟糕的了。
Absolute worst.
我真希望我有狩猎执照，可以从窗户外面把它们全解决了。
I wish I had a hunting license to just out of my window, just take them all out.
它们是最糟糕的。
They're the worst.
好吧。
Alright.
所以所有负面的内容都会超级火爆。
So all the the negative pieces go mega viral.
一个月前，马克·安德森上了这个播客，但我没听到任何人提起过。
And Marc Andreessen was on this podcast like a month ago, and I didn't hear one person talk about it.
哦，那是一个月前的事吗？
Oh, that was a month ago?
是在一月份。
It at the January.
所以终于有人分享了，说：嘿，听听这个。
And so I finally someone had shared it said, hey, listen to this.
他应该是人工智能的代言人，因为这是最乐观的访谈。
And it's the he should be the spokesperson for AI because it's the most optimistic tape.
他并没有说会像《星际迷航》那样进入乌托邦，一切问题都解决、没人需要工作，但也不是悲观的反乌托邦，即人人都失业；他谈到，如果我们真的实现如此高的生产率增长，而人们担心这会导致失业，那意味着价格会下降，而AI带来的黄金时代将带来巨大的富足和生产率提升，根本没人需要工作。
He's he's saying it's not utopia of like Star Trek and everything's gonna be figured out and no one's gonna work, but it's not dystopia either where no one has a job, and he talks about how like if we do get this really high productivity growth that people are worried about, and it's gonna put people out of jobs, that means lower prices, and it's not gonna cost us that nirvana period of AI is gonna cost so much abundance and productivity growth, no one's gonna have to work it.
每个人都失业了。
Everyone's out of a job.
我觉得这一点很明显，没必要再反复强调那令人恐惧的部分。
I think this the obvious not to not to belabor the scary part, though.
只是因为速度太快了，在以往的技术革命中，都是需要时间的。
It's just the speed because in previous technological revolutions, it took time.
比如
Like
是的。
Yeah.
这些东西，你说得对。
This stuff is it's just you're right.
这些东西正在快速发生，但劳动力市场的变化速度还没有真正到来。
This stuff is happening fast, but the speed at which the labor market has changed has not happened yet.
人们仍在做线性推断。
That people are still extrapolating.
这就是问题所在。
That's the problem.
确实如此。
That's true.
但先等等。
But on.
在继续之前，我们先暂停一下马克的话题，因为我们收到了几封类似的邮件，人们说他们试过AI，但没成功，于是又回到了人类员工，或者他们的朋友或配偶在一家实施了AI的公司工作，结果一团糟，他们正试图理清这个烂摊子。
Before just put a pin in Mark for a second because we got a a few emails like this where people are saying that they tried AI and it didn't work and they went back to humans or their friend or spouse works at a company that has implemented AI and it's a shit show and they're trying to unravel it.
因此，你知道，这被夸大了，别太担心。
And therefore, you know, it's overblown, like sort of don't worry.
这全是胡说八道。
This is all nonsense.
不。
No.
不。
No.
不。
No.
这些技术进步的速度并不是说，今天不成功的产物就只是‘好吧，看来它不行了’。
Pace at which these things are improving, it's not like the product that didn't work today is just like, okay, I guess it doesn't work.
它进步得太快了。
It's moving so fast.
这些技术提升的速度之快。
And just the speed at which these things are getting better.
所以我认为，很多人错误地感到安心，以为这些模型可能还不够强大
So I think there's a lot of people that are taking false comfort in the fact that these models maybe aren't We able
人们每周都会发邮件给我们，说你们根本没意识到AI不会成为天才。
to do everything get emails from people every week being like, you guys don't hear talk about AI is not gonna be a genius.
你说得对。
Like, you're right.
这确实会是它最糟糕的状态。
This is the worst it's going to be is absolutely true.
我觉得你不能这么想。
I think you can't take that.
我会把这两种极端观点都排除掉。
I'd take both extremes off the table.
我不喜欢那些认为这将一无所成的人。
I don't like people who have the extremes of like, oh, this is gonna be nothing.
你也不能持有这种心态。
You can't have that mindset either.
但安德森提出了一个观点，这正是我试图表达的：这一切都发生在人口增长率下降的背景下。
But Andresen made the point that I was kinda trying to make about, he's saying this is all happening in the face of declining population growth.
在未来十到三十年里，人类劳动者将变得越来越稀缺和珍贵。
Human workers in the next ten, twenty, thirty years are going to be at more and more of a premium.
如果将人口下降与移民减少结合起来，剩余的人类劳动者将变得稀缺，而不是廉价。
If you combine declining population with less immigration, the remaining human workers are gonna be at a premium, not a discount.
所以，他的观点非常乐观，但我喜欢他所说的，他到底说了什么？
So again, his is a very optimistic take, but I like his what did he say?
被颠覆的是任务，而不是工作本身。
It's the tasks that get disrupted, not necessarily the jobs all the time.
是的，这个观点非常好，我希望这是对的。
Yes, that was a great take, and I hope that's right.
他举了一个秘书的例子，以前秘书要为高管逐字打每一则备忘录和每一条信息，而现在高管自己用电子邮件打字，但秘书仍然有工作。
And he he gave the example of a secretary that used to type up every single memo and every message for an executive, and now the executive literally does all the typing themselves in email, but the secretary still has a job.
他们只是现在做不同的任务了，这正是他所说的，很可能大多数人也会如此：你只是变得更高效，承担更多工作，我倾向于支持他的观点，认同他对此的乐观看法。
They just do different tasks now, and that's that's what he was saying is is gonna happen most likely to many people is that you just become more efficient and more work, and I I tend to be on his side of things, his optimistic lean about what this is going to mean.
我希望如此。
I hope so.
你觉得他说的有什么地方太乐观了吗？
Did you think anything he said was too optimistic?
我觉得那部分有点……我认为其中有很多道理，但可能过于乐观了。
I think that part was a little was I think there's a lot of truth, but it might be overly optimistic.
这么说吧，老实说，我感觉现在并没有比一周前好多少。
Put it this way, I don't know that I feel a whole lot better than I did a week ago, to be honest.
对我来说有趣的是，如果你听经济学家的说法，他们非常理性，深入研究，非常冷静地看待这个问题，我觉得安德森的观点非常像经济学家。
The the interesting thing to me is that if you listen to economists, they are very like, they're very and they're in the books and in the weeds, they're very level headed about this, and I thought Andreessen's take was very economist.
保罗·克鲁格曼写了一篇帖子，认为受人工智能影响的投资者和工人会减少支出，这确实会发生，但如果人工智能带来显著的生产率提升，它将降低未被取代行业的价格并提高实际收入，从而促使其他美国人增加消费。
So Paul Krugman wrote, there's a treaty post arguing that investors and workers hurt by AI will cut their spending, which they will, But if AI delivers big productivity gains, it will reduce prices and raise real incomes in sectors that aren't displaced, causing other Americans to spend more.
没有理由相信，对经济一部分的冲击会减少整体需求。
There's no reason to believe that disrupting part of the economy will reduce overall demand.
好的。
Alright.
所以，那部分对我来说听起来是真实的。
So that that that part that part to me rings true.
所以我认为，如果持续增长并且支出增加，更多的支出总会对某些人有利。
And so I guess if there is continued growth and more spending, more spending has to be good for somebody.
不可能只是人工智能获益。
It can't just be like AI's gain.
对。
Right.
有一些公司会吸收这些支出。
There are companies that absorb the spending.
是的。
Yes.
没错。
Exactly.
再说一遍，对于那些被取代的人来说，这没什么安慰，但整个AI会摧毁经济。
Again, now that for the people who get displaced, that's not very much comfort, but the whole the whole AI is gonna wreck the economy.
我认为经济学家整体上并不真的相信这一点。
I think that economists as a whole seem to not really believe that.
也许他们的假设太过简单了。
Maybe their maybe their assumptions are way too simple too.
在我看来，未来十年的主题将是宏观与微观的对比。
So that's gonna be the theme for in my opinion, for the next decade, the macro versus the micro.
是的。
Yeah.
对。
Yeah.
微观层面的故事将会胜出。
And the micro stories are gonna win out.
《华尔街日报》的格雷格·叶表示，如果这样的革命真的来临，我们应该能看到一些迹象。
Greg Yip at The Wall Street Journal says, if such a revolution were upon us, we should see some sign of it.
但我们还没有看到，至少目前还没有。
We don't, at least not yet.
软件开发人员的队伍普遍被认为极易受到人工智能的影响，但在今年一月，这一群体较一年前增长了5%，增速与过去二十三年基本一致。
The ranks of software developers widely assumed to be acutely vulnerable to AI are up 5% in January from a year earlier, a pace largely consistent with past twenty three years.
问题是，我们看到的都是零星的案例，但如果你看劳动力的整体数据，目前还没有看到AI带来巨大变化。
The thing is, we're We're seeing seeing anecdotes, but if you look at the aggregate data of the labor force, we're not seeing big changes yet from AI.
我们确实没看到。
We're just not.
你什么意思？嗯，等等再说。
What do you mean the well, yeah, give it a minute.
现在还早。
It's early.
你说微观数据会胜出是什么意思？
What do you mean the micro data is gonna win out?
我的意思是，人们会关注这些个体故事，并以此为依据，而不是宏观的整体数据。我说过，我要等到宏观数据出现变化后再做出过度反应。
I mean, people are gonna I I'm I'm people are gonna look at these individual stories and latch onto those as opposed to the macro overall data, and I'm saying I'm gonna wait till I see it in the macro data to to have a overreaction here.
在看到数据之前，我不会对此过度反应。
I'm not gonna overreact to it until I see it in the data.
在微观和宏观层面即将发生的变化，可能会让现在的氛围显得像散步一样轻松，哦，是的。
What's coming on the micro macro front might make the vibe session look like a walk in the park in terms of like the Oh, yeah.
数据与感觉之间的分歧。
Divide between the data and the vibes.
因为你知道，记者只会采访那些被取代的人。
Because you know the reporters are only going to interview people that have been displaced.
是的。
Yes.
不会有任何关于社会益处的正面报道。
There's not gonna be there's not gonna be any positive articles about the societal benefits.
不会。
No.
如果你用人工智能来改善你的工作，没有记者会在意这个。
If if you're using AI to make your job better, no news reporter's gonna care about that.
对。
Right.
这只会悄然发生。
It's just gonna happen.
我觉得这个挺有意思的。
I thought this was interesting.
这是来自Old Rope Research的内容。
This is from Old Rope Research.
它问为什么H&R Block仍然在处理这么多报税单？
It asked why is H and R Block still doing so many tax returns?
既然有TurboTax，为什么人们还要雇人帮他们报税？
If TurboTax exists, why are people still hiring people to do their taxes?
H&R Block在一万多个零售点提供报税服务和辅助服务，二十年来每年处理约两千万份报税单，尽管面临TurboTax和联邦政府的激烈竞争——后者自2017年起推出了一个简便的系统。
H and R Block prepares tax returns and offers auxiliary services to clients 10,000 retail locations, and they've been doing around 20,000,000 tax returns per year for twenty five years despite stiff competition from TurboTax and the federal government, which now has like this easy system that was implemented in 2017.
数量上没有真正增长，但整个报税服务生态似乎牢牢锁定了两千万名需要H&R Block服务的用户，每份报税单的收入二十年来稳定在2.7美元。
No real growth in numbers, but still the whole tax prep ecosystem seems to have permanent clasp 20,000,000 people who demand H and R Block services with revenue per per return cagering at 2.7 per year for twenty three years.
他刚才说‘cagering’了吗？
Did did he say cagering?
那就是原文里写的，他就是这么写的。
That was in that was in the that's what he wrote.
cagering？
Cagering?
等等。
Wait.
是的。
Yeah.
哦，
Oh,
cagering。
cagering.
cagering。
Cagering.
抱歉。
Sorry.
好的。
Okay.
不是k。
Not k.
但它的意思是，不知为何，有些企业看起来本该被颠覆，却并没有。
But it's just saying that like for some reason, some of these businesses, they it feels like they should be disrupted, and they haven't.
我认为AI带来的意外将是那些没有被颠覆的企业。
And I think that's gonna be the surprise with AI is the businesses that don't get disrupted.
我认为人们还没有仔细思考过哪些企业不会被颠覆。
I don't think people are thinking through which businesses won't get disrupted.
好吧，我能举个简单的例子，说明AI有多酷吗？
Okay, can I give a simple example of AI being cool?
可以。
Yes.
我的孩子，我的双胞胎在上三年级，他们做一种限时数学练习，主要是乘法。
So my kids, my twins are in third grade, and they do this math thing where it's a timed math question, and they they do multiplication.
从二乘、三乘、四乘，一直到十二乘，对吧？
So it's twos, threes, fours, all the way up to twelves, right?
三乘二，三乘四，都是一样的，你有六十秒完成。
Three times two, three times four, it's the same, and you get sixty seconds to complete it.
如果他们完成了某个级别，就会进入下一个级别。
And if they don't if they complete the the level, they go up to the next level.
所以他们非常有竞争意识。
And so they're very competitive.
如果他们有一周没通过，就会回家练习，这种景象还挺让人欣慰的。
So if they if they don't pass one of them one week, they come home and they work on it and they practice, which is kinda cool to see.
然后他们开始学除法，觉得除法比乘法难多了。
So then they go to division, and they're like, oh, division's harder than multiplication.
于是我去找了Claude，说：帮我为每个数字生成一个十道题的测验。
I gotta and so I went to Claude and I said, make me a 10 question quiz for each of these numbers.
因为我试着在iPad上自己做，结果发现得每月付9.99美元才能用这个数学工具。
Because I looked I tried to do it on my on the iPad, and it was like, you have to pay $9.99 a month for this math thing.
这太蠢了。
Like, oh, that's stupid.
所以我让Claude帮我创建这个，Claude真的做出来了，如果他们通过了测验，就会有烟花特效洒落，就是一个小小的、很傻气的设计，但特别棒，因为现在他们有了一个，我就说，好吧，下一个也做这个，但有一次它没工作。
So I asked Claude, create this for me, and Claude created it, and like if they pass the quiz, all this confetti rained and stuff, and it's just this little stupid thing, and it was awesome because now they have one for I say, okay, do this for the next one, and then it didn't work one time.
我说，它没工作。
I said, it didn't work.
修复一下。
Fix.
然后它立刻就修复了。
And then it fixed it immediately.
这种很小的
That kind of just small
小细节。
little thing.
真的很酷。
It's really cool.
我
I
我昨天用完了Claude的额度，因为我每月只付20美元，我简直没法更快地花完100美元了，根本没有任何犹豫。
I hit my limit on Claude yesterday because I I was only paying $20 a month, and I I couldn't have hit a $100 faster, like, without without any hesitation.
我不觉得我还会为其他任何东西每月花100美元，除了网络费用。
I don't I'm I don't think there's a 100 I don't think I pay a $100 for anything other than, like, Internet.
对吧？
Right?
任何类型的月度服务都不可能。
Any, like, sort of monthly service.
这不对。
That's not true.
电话账单之类的。
Phone bills or whatever.
但不管怎样，我的意思是，我根本没花哪怕一秒钟考虑。
But but, anyway, my my point is it was not even a split second decision.
就是立刻决定好了。
Was like, alright.
我需要更多。
I I I need more.
我有多种选择。
I am diversified.
我现在在聊天中使用Claude和Gemini。
I'm using Claude and Gemini in chat now.
不知为何，我知道该在什么情况下用哪个，而且我并不是在同时使用它们所有。
And I for some reason, I I just know which ones I wanna use for which, and I'm I'm I'm not I'm using them all.
邮件。
Email.
你之前在节目中提到过《星际迷航》。
You mentioned Star Trek earlier in the show.
这周看了这一集后，我意识到，如果迈克尔是个《星际迷航》粉丝，他会更容易接受AI，不会那么沮丧。
Watching the episode this week, I realized what it would help I realized what would help Michael not be so down about AI is if he had been a Star Trek fan.
他会明白，AI和电脑承担所有琐碎任务并不是一场噩梦，而是《星际迷航》中的世界。
He would realize that AI and computers doing every menial task isn't a nightmare, but is actually the world of Star Trek.
剧中的普通人不需要工作来赚钱。
People don't have jobs in the show because they need money.
那里没有钱。
There is no money.
他们只有在从事自己热爱且能推动人类进步的事情时才会工作。
They have jobs if it's something they are passionate about, and it helps to advance humanity.
好的。
Okay.
我还是没看《星际迷航》，不过
Still not watching Star Trek, but
这就是富足的表现。
That's that's the abundance.
好吧。
Alright.
我已经做过了
I already did the
我只是完全拒绝这种关于四天工作制的富足论点。
I I just I reject that whole argument of the abundance for for four day work week.
如果你有空闲时间，你会做什么？
What would you do with what would you do with your time?
人们并不想要富足。
People do not want abundance.
不。
No.
而且again，我们需要某种全民基本收入之类的，是的，我看不出……
And again, we would have to have some sort of UBI or like, yeah, I I don't see
我能想象人们会反驳说，是的。
I could hear I could hear people pushing back like, yeah.
你真的喜欢你的工作，这一定很不错。
It must be nice that you actually like your job.
我明白。
I get it.
不是每个人都喜欢自己的工作。
Not everybody likes their job.
问题是，我们能否为那5%到10%因被取代而需要某种全民基本收入的劳动力提供这种保障？
The question is could we have this for five to 10% of the labor force that gets displaced, that they're gonna have to have some sort of UBI?
这可能吗？
Is that possible?
这真是一个极具政治争议的话题。
That is such a political lightning rod.
我不知道。
I don't know.
是的。
Yeah.
这正是人们在思考的问题。
That's the thing people are thinking about.
好吧。
Alright.
我们来谈谈房地产。
Let's talk real estate.
加州被认为是全美最混乱的房地产市场。
California, think, is the most broken housing market in the country.
这是来自《华尔街日报》的报道。
This is from The Wall Street Journal.
在加州，几乎唯一能买到房子的方式就是继承。
In California, about the only way to get a house is to inherit one.
去年，加州所有房产交易中约有18%，接近6万套房屋是通过继承获得的。
18% of all property transfers in the state last year, representing nearly 60,000 homes were made through inheritance.
这在加州是创纪录的数字。
That is a record in California.
这是全国平均水平8.8%的两倍。
It's double the national average, which is 8.8%.
因此，数据显示这类继承数量每年都在持续上升，他们还报道了这样的故事：有人父母在1990年以15万美元买下一套房子，现在孩子们只能等着父母去世，才能继承这套房子，这成了他们拥有房产的唯一途径，而他们认为主要原因在于房产税问题。
So they're showing that this number of inheritances like is just rising every single year, and they had these stories of these people saying, hey, the parents bought a house for 150,000 back in 1990, and now their kids are just waiting for them to die so they can take over their house, and that's the only way they're gonna own a house, and they're saying the big part of it is the property tax thing.
所以那个13号提案，限制了房产税的上涨幅度，这让那些面临更高市场估值和更高税费的新购房者更加难以承受，这种现象在许多州都很常见。
So that Prop 13, where they capped how much property taxes can increase by, that just makes it so much harder for new buyers who have much higher market valuations and much higher taxes to pay, and you see this in a lot of states.
密歇根州最近宣布，他们正试图限制或降低婴儿潮一代所缴纳的房产税，如果继续这样下去，这将引发更严重的代际冲突。
Michigan announced this recently that they're trying to cap or reduce property taxes that baby boomers pay, and this is gonna be way more generational warfare if they keep trying to do this stuff.
婴儿潮一代说：听好了。
Baby boomers are saying, listen.
我们的孩子已经不在上学了。
We don't have kids in school anymore.
那我们为什么还要为教育缴税呢？
Why should we have to pay the taxes for it?
天哪。
Oh, boy.
不过，未来房产继承这个问题一定会越来越突出。
Anyway, this whole inheritance thing with housing is gonna be a thing in the future, though.
这将成为一个大问题。
This is gonna be a big thing.
我想知道人们会怎么处理他们继承的房产。
I wonder what people are gonna do with the homes they inherit.
这正是问题所在，对吧。
That's the question, right.
我的意思是，我猜大多数人会卖掉，除非你住在那儿或者
I mean I would assume most sell, maybe if you live there or
因为你可以获得成本基数上调，所以不用操心缴税。
somewhere That's around because you get the step up basis in costs so you don't have to worry about paying taxes.
我不确定。
I don't know.
这在未来几十年里都会是一个大话题。
It's gonna be it's gonna be a big story for decades to come.
你说得对。
You're right.
孩子们想住在父母的房子里吗？
Do do kids wanna live in their parents' house?
这些婴儿安静点。
Those babies shut up.
去朝他们扔块石头。
Go throw a rock at them.
难以置信。
Unbelievable.
请让你的狗过来冲他们叫两声。
Send your dog over here to bark at them, please.
我的狗帮不上什么忙。
My dog wouldn't wouldn't help much.
天啊。
God.
好吧。
Alright.
你已经谈论私募股权公司很久了，而且十八个月前你还看涨，因为即将到来的财富管理浪潮。
You have been talking about the private equity firms for a while now, and you were bullish, I don't know, eighteen months ago because of the coming wave of wealth wealth management.
而现在担心的是，这种情况可能会停止、放缓，或者人们会暂停一下，导致这些股票大幅下跌。
And the worry now is, okay, this is gonna this is gonna stop or come to a halt or people are gonna take a breath, and these stocks are getting crushed.
Blue Owl下跌了60%。
Blue Owl's down 60%.
这是来自Bespoke的数据。
This is from Bespoke.
KKR下跌了近50%。
KKR's down almost 50%.
Ares下跌了超过40%。
Ares is down over 40%.
黑石集团下跌了超过40%。
Blackstone's down over 40%.
所以黑石集团今天又下跌了8%。
So Blackstone Blackstone Blackstone is down another 8% today.
我持有这只股票，今天就会卖掉。
I I own this stock, and I will be selling it today.
我会说，我们稍后再讲这个故事。
And I will I will say we'll get into the story in a second.
我想说，我今天要进行的这笔抛售，可能在一年、两年甚至三年后看起来都会很愚蠢。
I would say that this sale that I'm going to be making today is probably going to look stupid in I don't know if it's a year, two years, three years.
我不在乎。
I don't care.
有些股票你愿意长期持有，但对我而言，我完全不想去寻找这种机会。
There are there are there are stocks that you're comfortable holding for a long time, and for me, I have no interest in finding this tape.
所以这只股票我已经亏了13%，今天我打算认赔出局。
So I'm down I'm down 13% of the stock, and I'm gonna take a loss today.
这只是因为市场整体情况是这样。
It's just how The
对于整个市场而言，你从不会等到尘埃落定才行动。
with the market as a whole, you never wait for the dust to settle.
你不会等到尘埃落定才去投资。
You don't wait for the dust to settle to invest.
我觉得像这种股票，稍微等一下尘埃落定是可以的。
I feel like with stocks like this, this is it's okay to wait for the dust to settle a little bit.
这样说公平吗？
Is that fair?
其实，让我澄清一下。
Well, actually, me just clarify.
我之前提到的这笔资金，投资的是那些交易型股票，这跟我长期持有的账户完全不一样。
So this pile of money that I've been talking about with like stocks that are trading stuff, this not like my buy and hold account.
这更像是高风险操作？
Is more of a high right?
我并不是现在才开始像上周我说的Netflix那样买入并长期持有，因为我对结果有心理准备，不是为了炫耀，这个我们稍后再说。
I'm not looking to now like I last week I said Netflix, I'm buying and holding that name because I was comfortable with whatever the outcome was, not to brag, which we'll get to that in a sec.
这不是那种股票。
This is not one of those names.
所以我认为，听我说。
So I that I think that listen.
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