屡创新高本该比这更令人振奋

对吧？

Right?

亚马逊上市了。

The Amazon went public.

亚马逊在纳斯达克100指数中自2010年以来每年复合增长率为19.5%。

Amazon The went Nasdaq one hundred has compounded at 19.5% per year since 2010.

你并不需要投资那些小公司才能获得巨大收益。

You didn't you didn't have to invest in these tiny little companies to enjoy large gains.

对吧？

Right?

就像，哦，我们错过了亚马逊因为它没上市，Facebook后来才上市，所有这些公司都是后来才上市的。

Like, oh, we did we missed out on Amazon because it didn't go public, Facebook went public later, and all these companies are going public later.

这并不重要。

It didn't matter.

我很高兴你提到这一点。

I'm so glad you mentioned that.

我是说，因为那正是讨论的焦点之一，而且这并非不实之词。

I mean, because that is one of the talking points, and it's not it's not untrue.

是的。

Yes.

没错，我们确实无法以200亿美元的估值投资OpenAI，因为它当时还在私募市场。

We yes, we weren't able to invest in OpenAI at a 20,000,000,000 valuation because it was in public those in private markets.

是的。

Yes.

这是事实。

That is a fact.

但投资者因无法这样做就被剥夺了收益机会，这并非事实。

But it is not a fact that investors are being robbed of gains by not having the ability to do that.

正如你所说，看看公开市场给投资者带来了多么丰厚的回报。

Because to your point, look how well public markets have treated investors.

什么？

What?

一年19%的回报还不够好吗？

19% a year is not good enough?

你认为有多少比例的风投基金在那段时间里表现超过了纳斯达克100指数？

What percentage of VC funds do you think beat the Nasdaq 100 in that time period?

哪个时间段？

Which time period?

指的是过去五年、十年或十五年。

It's in the last five, ten, fifteen years.

我敢打赌，能超过这个回报的风投基金比例微乎其微。

I bet it's it's a tiny tiny percentage of any VC funds that beat that.

不到10%？

Less than 10%?

对。

Yeah.

我觉得可能连5%都不到。

I would say like less than five.

好的。

Alright.

霍华德·马克斯，大急流城的对冲基金大佬。

Howard Marks, Grand Rapids hedge guy.

我们应该给他寄件T恤。

We should send him a t shirt.

你读过他最新的文章了吗？

Did you read his latest piece?

这是泡沫吗？

Is this a bubble?

我…我读了大部分。

I I read most of it.

好吧。

Okay.

这篇文章很长，他做了那种…有些人你你你提到过。

So it's a long piece, and he he does the thing where and some people you you you mentioned it.

有些人不喜欢这样。

Some people don't like this.

他总是反复权衡，一方面这样，另一方面那样。

He he does a lot of back and forth on the on the one hand, on the other hand.

对吧？

Right?

他说，既然没人能确定这是否是泡沫，我建议没有人应该全仓投入而不承认如果情况恶化他们将面临毁灭性风险。

He's and he says, since no one can definitively say whether this is a bubble, I'd advise that no one should go all in without acknowledging that they face the risk of ruin if things go badly.

同样地，也不应该完全置身事外，冒着错过重大技术进步的风险。

By the same token, no one should stay all out and risk missing out on one of the great technological steps forward.

采取适度立场，结合选择性和审慎态度，似乎是最佳方法。

A moderate position applied with selectivity and prudence seems like the best approach.

有些人听完这个会说，得了吧老兄。

Now some people leave that and go, come on, man.

别骑墙了。

Get off the fence.

做个决定吧。

Make a decision.

但我完全赞同他的观点。

But I totally completely agree with him.

我也是。

Me too.

那些在类似情况下走极端的人，这种立场并不明智，不仅可能因错失机遇或过度投入导致财务问题，更会带来沉重的心理负担。

The people that the people that go to the extremes in these scenarios, that's not a smart position to take, not only because of the potential financial problems you could have because you miss out on something or you set out of something, it's the psychological burden that it carries.

我完全站在马克斯这边。

I am team Marks here all the way.

抱歉。

Sorry.

没人能预知未来。

Nobody could see the future.

就像天气预报员连季节性天气都预测不准。

Like peep weathermen can't even predict the weather, which is seasonal.

对吧？

Right?

就像，天气预报应该是可以预测的，但他们却做不到。

Like, that should be you should be able to predict the weather, and they can't do it.

抱歉，但确实没人能预测未来科技、世界和股市的走向。

Sorry if nobody could predict the future about the technology and the world and the stock market.

这是不可能做到的。

It cannot be done.

所以如果你读了霍华德的这篇帖子，你会说，好吧，多谢了，混蛋。

So if you read this post from Howard and you say, well, thanks a lot, asshole.

一方面，另一方面，抱歉。

On the one hand, the other hand, that's sorry.

这就是事实。

That's that's the truth.

这已经是最好的情况了。

That's about as good as it's gonna get.

我认为他把双方观点阐述得很好，因为确实无人能预知未来。

And I think he did a really good job laying out both points because nobody knows.

我们拭目以待。

We'll see.

好的。

Okay.

你这张英伟达的图表是ChartKid提供的吗？

What's your Nvidia chart here from ChartKid?

是Matt发给我分享的这张图表。

So Matt sent me Matt shared with this chart with me.

与ChatGPT发布时相比，现在英伟达的股价更便宜了。

NVIDIA is cheaper now versus ChatGPT launch.

他关注的是英伟达的远期市盈率。

And he's looking at the NVIDIA's forward PE ratio.

ChatGPT发布时是40倍、39倍，而今天已降至24倍。

And it was 40 times, 39 times when ChatGPT launched, and now it's 24 today.

所以他展示的是随时间推移的市盈率扩张或收缩。

So he's showing multiple expansion or contraction over time.

这张图表太疯狂了。

This is a crazy chart.

我永远都猜不到会是这样。

I never would have guessed this in a million years.

好的。

Okay.

所以这不是泡沫时期会发生的情况，但这里有个非常非常大的‘但是’。

So this is not what happens in bubbles, but there is a big, big, big however here.

而这个‘但是’可能是我们在错误的地方寻找泡沫。

And the however here is maybe we're looking in the wrong spot for the bubble.

也许市盈率扩张是错误的方向，市盈率本身就不是该关注的重点。

And maybe multiple expansion is the wrong the multiple is the wrong place to look.

关键在于市值。

It's the market cap.

我觉得4.3万亿，或者接近5万亿，这个数字太大了，已经失去了实际意义。

And I think 4,300,000,000,000, or it's up to five, It's such a big number that it loses all meaning.

没错。

Right.

我可不会去堆叠一千张美钞来验证这个数字。

And I'm not gonna do that if you stack a thousand dollar bills.

哦，我在骗谁呢？

Oh, who am I kidding?

是的。

Yes.

我会这么做的。

I am gonna do that.

那些在月球上出现了12次。

Those are on the moon 12 times.

对吧？

Right?

43000亿美元相当于4300个10亿美元。

$4,300,000,000,000 is $1,000,000,000 4,300 times.

我是说，这太疯狂了。

I mean, it's it's insane.

那真是太多了。

That is a lot.

所以我理解投资者不愿为每一美元收益支付越来越高的价格，但他们怎么可能愿意呢？

And so I understand that investors aren't paying more and more for each dollar of earnings, but how could they possibly?

这家公司会值多少钱？

What would what would this company be worth?

130000亿美元？

13,000,000,000,000?

到某个时候它会超过所有未偿还债券的总和吗？

It would be it would be more than all of the bonds outstanding at some point?

就像，这简直

Like, it's just

我需要一张沃伦派饼图，展示相对于GDP的最大公司规模，因为我们身处一个32万亿美元的经济体中。

I need, like, a I need a Warren Pies chart that shows the biggest company relative to GDP because we live in a $32,000,000,000,000 economy.

它比德国的GDP还要大。

It's bigger than Germany's GDP.

嗯，好吧。

Well, okay.

我的意思是，显然那是个存量与流量的对比问题，但我需要看长期趋势。

I mean, obviously, that's a stocks versus flow thing, but I need over time.

不过，你是对的。

But, yes, you're right.

那确实是个庞然大物。

That's a that's a massive thing.

好吧。

Alright.

我谈过集中度问题，你知道我最喜欢《华尔街日报》那篇关于普通投资者对冲AI泡沫的文章。

I talked about the concentration thing, and you know my favorite thing with Wall Street Journal, the everyday investors hedging against an AI bubble.

好的？

Okay?

散户投资者正在对冲。

Everyday investors are hedging.

Tony Wen说了什么？

What does Tony Wen say?

是的。

Yeah.

他们不像Brian Hahn那样，过去十年把大部分积蓄都投在科技股上。

They're not taking Brian Hahn had most of his savings in tech stocks for a decade.

向Brian致敬。

Credit to Brian.

文章说这位51岁的数学老师有80%的资产在科技股。

It said the 51 year old math teacher had 80 percent of them.

现在他说他很担心。

Now he says he's worried.

十月份时，他把所有钱都取出来转投了黄金。

In October, he took all that money out and put it into gold.

他说对我来说风险太大，不能指望它继续上涨，你知道，这主意其实不坏。

He said it's too much a risk for me to assume that this was gonna keep moving higher, you know, that that's not a bad idea.

等等。

Hold on.

我们能不能给布莱恩充分的肯定，亲爱的？

Can we just give full credit to Brian, hon?

这家伙过去十年的收益可能比我高出一倍不止。

This guy outperformed the shit out of me probably by two x over the last ten years.

哦，确实。

Oh, yeah.

他做得太出色了。

He did he did amazing.

不过我的想法是这样的。

Here's my thought process though.

我认为这整个集中投资的做法，如果你过去十年——其实主要是过去五年——违背了所有传统智慧，包括合理的财务建议、投资建议，就是我们平时给出的那些建议，如果你违背了这些建议，你确实表现得非常出色。

I think this whole concentrate like, you were if you went against all conventional wisdom in terms of reasonable financial advice, investment advice, the kind of stuff that we give, if you went against that for the last ten years, really the last five years though, you did amazing.

如果你投机、集中投资、做了所有这些平时可能不该做的事，你反而赢了。

If you speculated, if you concentrated, if you did all these things that you probably shouldn't do on a regular basis, you won.

你赚了很多

You made a lot

嗯，这并不完全正确。

of Well, that's not really true.

某种程度上是对的。

It's it's sort of true.

要看情况。当然。

Depends on Sure.

很多人都这样。

A lot of people did.

这取决于你全仓押注的是哪些股票。

It depends on which stocks you went all in on.

是的。

Yeah.

但我

But I

认为如果你全仓那七只龙头股，表现会非常出色。

think If you went in on the max seven stocks, you did phenomenal.

没错。

Yes.

噢，确实。

Oh, yeah.

但我觉得很多人这么做是因为想着‘我就投自己熟悉的标的’。

But but I think a lot of people did that because it was, hey, I'll just invest in what I know.

结果这种方式反而大获成功。

And worked to perfection this way.

我们每天都和他们打交道。

We talk to them every day.

我是说，确实有数百万人，数百万又数百万的人。

I mean, There are are quite literally millions of people, millions and millions.

我不知道是否有数千万。

I don't know if it's tens of millions.

也许有，很可能，那些通过苹果公司致富的人。

Maybe it is, probably, that made that got rich off of Apple.

而且我认为这个而且

And I think this And

在英伟达，真的。

in Nvidia, like legitimately.

我要声明我的主张。

I'm staking my claim.

有很大概率这是一生仅此一次的机遇。

There's a high percentage that of chance that this is a once in a lifetime thing that just happened.

所以在Colossus，Dom Cook写了这篇文章，你把它发给了Josh和我，关于Henry Ellen Bogan的。

So at Colossus, Dom Cook did this piece, and you sent it to Josh and I, about Henry Ellen Bogan.

这家伙，Dom Cook，真是让人难以置信。

This guy this guy, Dom Cook, is unbelievable.

是啊。

Yeah.

他在《巨人ues》上的个人资料写得非常棒，这篇讲的是Alan Bogan，他曾是T公司新视野基金的负责人。

His his profiles in Colossus are really good, and this one was about so this guy, Alan Bogan, was a the New Horizons Fund at T.

T. Rowe Price的基金有着非常出色的业绩记录。

Rowe Price, which had a really great track record.

历史可以追溯到很久以前，他的投资回报率惊人。

It went back forever, and his his returns were amazing.

但我想调出这篇文章来看看。

But I wanted to pull up this piece.

每当你听说，比如，T.

Whenever you whenever you heard about, like, T.

Rowe的互惠基金投资私人股份的事情？

Rowe's mutual fund investing in private shares?

是的。

Yes.

就是这个人。

It was this guy.

他在2011年投资了Netflix的私人股份，当时他们还在做DVD邮寄业务。

He he invested a private investment in Netflix in 2011 when they did the DVD by mail thing.

他们打算分拆公司，Netflix当时处境非常艰难。

They were gonna separate the companies, and Netflix was in real trouble.

他说，我相信它。

He said, I believe in it.

所以他以大约4.5亿美元的估值投资了Netflix。

So he got invest invested in Netflix at, like, a $450,000,000 valuation.

我想我之前讲过这个故事。

Think I've told this story before.

那是我有史以来最成功的一笔交易。

That was my best trade of all time.

我在Netflix公布财报前一周买了看跌期权，虽然不记得当时为什么看空。

I bought puts on Netflix, like, the week before they reported earnings because I don't remember why I was bearish.

但可以说我就是有种预感。

But I just let's just say I had a feeling.

那笔交易我大概赚了30倍。

And I think I made like 30 x my money on that trade.

因为它怎么了？

Because it what?

遭遇了什么？

Got what?

被血洗了吗？

Got slaughtered?

对。

Yeah.

是的。

Yeah.

那只股票，股票跌了差不多30%

The stock the stock got down like 30%.

那是我有史以来最成功的一笔交易

That's my best trade of all time.

自那以后就一直在走下坡路

It's been it's been downhill ever since.

所以如果当时买入的话，现在应该赚翻了

So if would've bought there, it would've been great.

文章提到他的整个投资风格是长期持有，但值得一读

So it says it talks about his the whole profile is long, but it's worth a read.

里面讲了他的模式识别能力，以及他对市场的思考方式

It talks about his pattern recognition, and and he's thinking through the market.

你摘出来的这部分，我觉得很有价值

And this part that you pulled out, I thought it worth it.

他说，他尽可能减少对自己投资组合的操作

He said said, he trades his portfolio as little as possible.

到了2022年，情况已经很明显，这不是暂时的市场错位。

By the 2022, it became clear that it wasn't a temporary dislocation.

谈谈市场吧。

Talk about the market.

市场格局已经改变。

The regime had changed.

他又重新研究起复合增长型企业。

He went back to to his study on compounders.

在正常的十年里，大约有40只股票能以每年20%的速度复合增长财富。

In a normal decade, about 40 stocks compound wealth at 20% per year.

在零利率时代，有120只股票实现了这种增长。

In the free money era, 120 stocks had achieved it.

哦，没错。

Oh, yeah.

他的投资组合里混入了冒牌货。

There were imposters in his portfolio.

难以置信。

Unbelievable.

这简直难以置信。

That is unbelievable.

所以，再等一下。

So so hold on one more time.

在正常的十年里，有40只股票以每年20%的速度复利增长。

In a normal decade, 40 stocks compound at 20% a year.

而在宽松货币时期，这个数字达到了120只股票。

And in the free money area, it's a 120 stocks.

太不真实了。

Unreal.

我的观点是这样的。

Here's my point.

过去五到十五年间，有大量股票的表现简直疯狂。

There's been such a bigger bucket of stocks that have gone just insane in the past five, ten, fifteen years.

我认为人们会据此推断，认为这是常态。

I think people are going to extrapolate that and think this is normal.

我为什么不能一直这样做呢？

Why would I not do this all the time?

而且很明显，有些人来找我们说，听着。

And, obviously, there are people who are coming to us and saying, listen.

我知道我运气好。

I know I got lucky.

我基本上就是中了彩票。

I basically hit the lottery.

帮我分散投资。

Help me divert.

所以，我们并没有看到来找我们的人有疯狂行为，但我认为会有很多人从中吸取错误教训，觉得这很容易。

So, like, we're not seeing crazy behavior from people that come to us, but there I think there are a lot of people who gonna take the wrong lessons from this and go, oh, this is easy.

我就买我熟悉的股票。

I'll just buy the stocks I know.

我会把所有钱押在五只股票上，赚得比谁都多，超越所有专业人士。

I'll put all my money in five stocks, and I'll make way more money than anyone, and I'll outperform all the professionals.

是啊。

Yeah.

市场永远不会一直这么容易赚钱。

It's it's never gonna always be this easy.

我相信投资者会逐渐学会正确的教训，这是针对个人而言的。

Trust I trust investors to learn the right lessons over time individually.

不是指群体，如果你明白我的意思。

Not as a group, if that makes sense.

因为我觉得作为群体，人们永远会买入并持有杠杆ETF。

Because I think as a group, people will forever buy and hold levered ETFs.

现实就是这样。

It just is what it is.

对吧？

Right?

因为总会有新的一批人需要吸取这些教训。

Because there's always there's always a new crop of people that need to learn these lessons.

但我确实相信人们会随着年龄增长而变得明智，并在多次碰壁后吸取教训。

But I really do believe that people age and get wise and burn their hand one too many times.

是啊。

Yeah.

你总要交学费的。

You pay your tuition.

我同意。

I agree.

我认为大多数人在投资上都会经历一个进化过程，他们会逐渐明白：'年轻时我以为是这样那样的，现在才看清真相。'

I I do think that most people have a have an evolution investing where they understand like, oh, when I was younger I thought x y z, and now I understand the truth.

所以我对投资者最终能学会正确经验持乐观态度。

So I am bullish on investors learning the right lessons over time.

这种情况确实会发生。

It does happen.

你成熟了，生活中会出现不同的事物，责任变多，钱也变多，确实如此，

You mature, different things come into your life, and you have more responsibilities, you have more money, and it, yes,

而用于投机的时间更少，更少自欺欺人地认为自己能做到。

more And less time for speculation, less self delusion that you're gonna do it.

是的。

Yes.

但市场上总得有些输家。

But there always have to be some losers in the market.

就像，这是个不幸的现实——总会有人犯错，有些人永远学不会教训。

Like, that's an unfortunate reality that there's always gonna be people who make mistakes, and some people never learn their lesson.

我们当然知道。

We Of know course.

当然。

Of course.

不过，你说得对。

But, yes, you're right.

随着时间的推移，大多数人确实会吸取教训，但我认为人们必须明白，最终会出现这样一种情况：仅仅持有你熟悉和拥有的那些最大最好的股票是不够的，而且这并不像看起来那么容易。

More people than not probably do learn their lesson over time, but I think this is a lesson people are gonna have to learn that this eventually, there's going to be a scenario where just the best biggest stocks that you know and own, you can't just own those and and it's easy.

这太容易了。

It's been too easy.

问题就在这里。

That's the thing.

好吧。

Alright.

今天是就业数据发布日，猜猜看。

It was jobs day today, guess.

天啊。

Man.

你的狗在新社区适应得怎么样？

How's your dog like in the new neighborhood?

她正在巡逻。

She's she's patrolling.

外面有什么？

What's out there?

你有没有对狗说过'你在干嘛'之类的话？

Do you ever just go to the dog like, what are you doing?

比如当你的狗对着不合理的东西叫时，你有没有看着它问'你到底在干嘛'？

Like, when your dog barks at something that's irrational or like, do you ever just look at the dog and go, what's what are you doing?

你为什么要这样？

Why are you doing this?

我经常这样对我的狗说。

I do this to my dog all the time.

你在想什么？

What are you thinking?

我养的是只拳师犬，大型犬一般不太爱叫。

So I have a boxer, and large dogs are not prone to, like, barking that much.

现在窗外有只狗在叫，幸好我家狗不是那种爱叫不停的类型。

Now there's there's a dog outside the window that she's barking at, but thank god she's not a chronic barker.

但当然，是的，就像，停下。

But of course, yes, it's like, stop.

停下。

Stop.

停下。

Stop.

停下。

Stop.

看这个。

Watch this.

够了。

Enough.

我的狗，不管什么原因，会看电视。

My my dog, for whatever reason, watches TV.

所以我们正试着看电影或电视节目。

So we're trying to watch a movie or TV.

如果电视上出现另一只狗，她会像看窗外一样盯着看。

If another dog shows up on TV, she'll like watch it like she's looking out the window.

她以为看到了，如果发现电视上有狗就会发疯。

And she thinks she see and she goes crazy if she sees a dog on TV.

哇。

Wow.

好吧。

Alright.

我们来谈谈劳动力市场吧。

Let's talk about the labor market.

今天我们拿到了一些有趣的数据。

We got some data today, and it's funny.

我把Y charts的失业率数据放在这里了。

I I put the unemployment rate data from Y charts in here.

它显示了按月统计的失业率。

It shows the unemployment rate by month.

看看十月份的数据。

Look at the October.

那里完全是空白的，这有点好笑。

It's just blank, which is kinda funny.

但你会注意到，每个月失业率都在上升，自六月以来已上涨了50个基点。

But you'll notice every single month, the unemployment rate is going up, and it's gone up 50 basis points since June.

所以数据是4.1，4.2，4.3，4.4这样递增。

So four point one, four point two, 4.3, 4.4.

跳过一个月份后，达到了4.6。

Skip a month, 4.6.

从绝对值来看，失业率仍然很低。

On an absolute basis, the unemployment rate is still very low.

但显然趋势正朝着错误的方向发展。

It's obviously going in the wrong direction.

马特·博斯勒今早发了这条推文。

Matt Boesler tweeted this this morning.

他还有一条推文，某种程度上在试探经济衰退的边界。

He had another one that is kind of pushing the recessionary bounds.

美国失业率为4.6%，过去五个月上升了0.5个百分点。

The US unemployment rate at 4.6% is up half percentage point over the last five months.

在77年的数据记录中，这种情况发生在非衰退时期的次数屈指可数。

In seventy seven years of data, the number of times that's occurred outside of a recession can be counted on one hand.

类似情况只在上世纪五十年代和八十年代出现过，自2003年以来再未发生。

And it's like the nineteen fifties, nineteen eighties, and hasn't happened since 2003.

有时候我觉得我们对这些数据过于较真了。

Sometimes I think we take these things too far.

今天看到推特上多人发布精确到小数点后三位的失业率数据，就为了证明我们四舍五入到4.6%是迫不得已。

I saw multiple people on Twitter today post the unemployment rate out to three decimal points, right, to show how far we had to because we're rounding up to 4.6.

实际可能是4.5746%之类的数值。

It's really 4.5746 or whatever.

这种颗粒度对我来说有点太细了——用个我不太喜欢的词来说。

That's a that's a little too granular for me for a word I don't like to use.

事情是这样的。

Here's the thing.

我还是不明白为什么'granular'这个词会被你列入黑名单。

I don't I still don't know why granular is a word that is like in your box, in your penalty box.

我我以前和一个同事共事，哦，

I I used to work with a guy Oh,

没关系。

that's fine.

用它来显得聪明。

And use it to sound smart.

好吧。

Okay.

有些人会用特定的词汇来显得聪明，而这个词不知为何总是让我很反感。

And there there are certain words people use to sound smart, and that's one of them that has always triggered me for some reason.

好的。

Okay.

有道理。

Fair enough.

他总用这个词。

He used it all the time.

无时无刻不在用，我听得牙都要咬碎了——

All the time, and I used to just grind my it's so

确实该生气，'颗粒度'根本不该是日常词汇。

bad That for should grind your gears because granular is not a daily word.

他简直逢人就用

Would use it all the time

我最多一季度用一次。

before I use it once a quarter tops.

对啊，听到这个词就觉得'哇，这人好聪明'。

Yeah, because someone uses that word, you go, ah, that's a smart person.

没错。

Yeah.

问题是，劳动力市场显然在持续恶化。

Here's the thing, the labor market obviously continues to deteriorate.

你不能说它处于强势状态。

You can't say it's in a strong place.

股票和债券市场根本不在乎。

Stock and bond markets don't care at all.

利差仍然很低。

Spreads are still low.

债券市场，如果你认为债券市场真的关心劳动力市场，收益率应该会下降更多。

Bond markets, you'd think if the bond market was really concerned about the labor market, yields would be falling more.

我想也许可以说，由于所有关税通胀的因素，收益率确实比原本要低，所以确实如此。

I guess it's maybe you say, well, yields are lower than they would be because of all the tariff inflation stuff, so it is.

但股票市场再次证明，优化后的金融市场目前并不关心劳动力市场。

But the stock market, again, an optimized markets financial markets do not care about the labor market yet.

没错。

That's correct.

他们到底什么时候才会在意？

Just when are they gonna care?

需要什么条件才会触动市场？

What what would it take?

这是个好问题。

That is a good question.

我认为当市场担心劳动力市场会影响企业盈利时，它就会开始关注，但目前看来市场根本不担心这个问题。

I think the market will care about the labor market when it's worried that it's going to show up in earnings, but I don't think it's don't think it's worried about that at all.

我再说一次，因为这是边际效应。

I I again, because it's happening on the margin.

但事实恰恰相反。

But the opposite is true.

我认为劳动力市场不景气是因为企业在观望AI能带来什么效益，所以放慢了招聘速度。

I think that the labor market is not in a great place because companies are being slow to hire because they're waiting to see what AI is going to be able to do for them.

或许还可以这样解读：企业在裁员却未陷入衰退，这意味着它们的利润率反而提高了。

I guess you could also say, listen, the fact that corporations are laying people off and we're not in a recession means better profit margins for them.

这就是股市不在乎的原因。

That's why the stock market doesn't care.

我的意思是，这显然在一定程度上是有效的。

I mean, that works to a point, obviously.

是的。

Yeah.

好吧。

Alright.

有一篇文章

There was a piece

我也坚持。

I also hold on.

最后一件事是这个。

One last thing is this.

我也认为消费者没问题。不想再老调重弹了，就是那个K型复苏的话题，但总体而言。

I also think that the consumer is fine Not to beat this dead horse right into the ground, right, the k shaped conversation, but in the aggregate.

好的？

Okay?

总体而言。

In the aggregate.

因为我正在观察，虽然我不确定股市是否总是能反映真实情况，但这次我倾向于相信它。

Because I'm looking at and I don't know if the stock market is always a source of truth here, but I think in this case, I'm gonna lean on it.

Ally金融公司。

Ally Financial.

Ally是一家大型汽车贷款机构，其客户中有很大比例是次级借款人。

Ally is a large automotive lender, and a large percentage of their clients are are subprime borrowers.

Capital One，纯粹的消费者信贷业务。

Capital One, pure consumer exposure.

看看这个。

Look at this.

我是说，股价正处于历史新高。

I mean, the stock is at an all time high.

我不像，很明显，美国运通面向的是高端客户。

I'm not like, obviously, American Express is the luxury client.

它的股价也创下了历史新高。

That's at an all time high too.

但仅凭第一资本和Ally的数据对我来说已经足够有说服力了。

But just Capital One and Ally is good enough for me.

如果整体消费者（不是细分群体）状况在恶化，股价就不可能创历史新高。

If the if the consumer in the aggregate, not segments of the consumer, but in the aggregate, was deteriorating, the stock would not be at an all time high.

这不是明摆着嘛。

Duh.

那我能不能给你看个K型复苏的反例？

So can I I give you something that's the opposite of the k shape?

就像倒过来的K字型。

It's like a k upside down.

我也不知道那叫什么形状。

I don't know what that is.

好吧。

That's a Alright.

所以中间有这么一部分

So there's this piece for the center of

K是对称的，所以倒过来的K还是K。

Is that k's are symmetrical, so an upside down k is a k.

哦，反过来的K。

Oh, backwards k.

不对。

No.

那还是一回事。

That's still the same thing.

波士顿学院的退休研究中心写了篇关于通胀的文章，他们说听着，虽然通胀率低——这个观点大家都在提——我们要看累计值。

Center for Retirement Research at Boston College wrote a piece about inflation, and they they they say, listen, just because inflation's low, and this is a point everyone's been making, let's look at cumulative.

于是他们做了这张图表，显示自2020年以来所有不同类别的通胀情况，总通胀率累计上涨了25%。

And they so they did this chart that shows all these different categories since 2020, and it shows total inflation is up 25% cumulatively.

但如果你看食品饮料类，涨幅略高些，26%。

But if you look at food and beverages, they're up a little more, 26.

住房上涨28%，交通上涨37%。

Housing is up 28, and transportation is up 37.

这些都是人们关注的重点领域，所以当这三项涨幅超过平均水平时，人们往往忽略了教育仅上涨4%，娱乐上涨16%，医疗保健上涨11%这些事实。

So those are the and those are the big things people focus on, so the fact that those three items are up more than the average, people don't look at, well, education is only up 4%, or recreation is up 16, or medical care is up 11.

单程票。

One way ticket.

服装上涨了13%，对吧？

Apparel's up 13, right?

长岛铁路到纽约市的单程高峰票价是14美元。

A one way peak ticket into New York City from the Long Island Railroad is $14.

那疫情前是多少钱？

K, what would it have been before the pandemic?

我对这个没有基准概念。

I have no baseline for this.

八、七或八块。

Eight, seven or eight.

好的。

Okay.

太疯狂了。

It's crazy.

难以置信它这么贵

It's unbelievable how expensive it

。

is.

你是每次付钱还是

Do you pay every time or

按月付费

do you pay for a monthly

我买单程票因为我每周只进城一次。

I pay one way because I'm only in once a week.

好的。

Okay.

但高峰时段单程票要14美元。

But $14 for a one way peak ticket.

如果你每天乘坐火车，月票要多少钱？

So how much does a monthly pass cost for the train if you're taking it every day?

这是个好问题。

That's that's a great question.

以前是500美元吗？

It used $500?

我不知道

I have no

以前的价格是...我不记得了。

It used to cost I I don't remember.

我已经很久没买过月票了。

It's been so long since I bought a monthly ticket.

以前大概是200多美元。

It used to be, like, 200 something dollars.

所以高峰票价是14.5美元。

So peak is $14.50.

我们怎么才能买到那种我买过的月票呢？

How do we get a monthly ticket that I bought?

比如说，12月的月票现在已经买不到了。

Let's say, the December monthly ticket is no longer available.

你可以在12月25日或之后购买1月份的月票。

You could buy the January monthly ticket on or after December 25.

好吧。

Alright.

很抱歉。

So sorry.

我查不到。

I can't find out.

但好消息是你仍然需要拥有一辆车，所以这一切都是值得的。

But the good news is you still have to own a car, so that that makes it all worth it.

没错。

Right.

因为确实。

Because yeah.

而且车很便宜。

And cars are cheap.

听着，你

So listen You

你真该看看我这周为我的车有多纠结，本。

you should have seen the waffling I was doing this week about my car, Ben.

来回摇摆。

Back and forth.

完全失控了。

It's out of control.

情况越来越紧张了。

It is heating up.

你什么时候必须做出决定？

When do you have to make a decision?

情况越来越紧张了。

It is heating up.

我的车四月份到期。

My car is due in April.

我的租约四月份到期。

My lease is up in April.

好的。

Okay.

那你还有些时间。

You've got some time then.

让你的汽车经纪人开始工作吧。

Get your car broker to work.

但他们这篇报告还研究了工资水平，再次表明总体工资累计增长快了2个百分点，但最让我震惊的是，这一时期最低四分位数的工资涨幅远超其他群体。

But they they this piece also looked at the wages, and and again, overall wages have grown two percentage points faster cumulatively, but look at the it's still crazy to me that the lowest quartile had by far the biggest increase in this period.

所以是30%对25%，而最高收入群体实际上落后于通胀率。

So 30% versus 25%, and the highest actually fell behind inflation.

最高四分位数仅增长了24%，而通胀是25%。

The highest quartile was only up 24% versus 25%.

如果你能做个民意调查，询问每个美国人——我们暂且抛开选举人团制度，只看票数，多数决——你更愿意维持现在的收入与通胀状况，还是回到2019年？

If you if you could poll the audience, if you could ask every American, and let's just throw away the electoral college, just number of votes, majority wins, majority rules, would you prefer where you are today in terms of your income and your and the inflation, or would you rather go back to 2019?

轻松完胜，毫无悬念，人们会选择回到2019年的物价水平。

Handily, not even close, we go back to 2019 prices.

如果能直接重置，结果根本不会有悬念。

If we could just reset, not even close.

但人们会愿意接受那时的工资水平吗？

But would people be happy going back to those wages?

这才是关键所在。

That's the thing.

这会是这样吗

It would it be would

这会

this would

是损失厌恶 是的。

it be the loss aversion Yes.

我是说你的工资和物价都倒退回去。

I'm saying your wages go backwards and the prices go backwards.

我认为人们会这么说，但如果你真这么做了，他们会惊呼天啊，他们会震惊于自己的工资减少了。

I think people would say that, but if you actually did it to them, they'd go, oh my they'd be shocked that their wages are gone down.

我认为问题在于无论损失厌恶程度如何，那才是最令人痛苦的。

I think that's the problem is that it's whatever the loss aversion is, that's the thing that that hurts more.

嗯，那是另一个话题了。

Well, that's a different conversation.

关于这点你可能是对的。

You might be right about that.

但我只是说，如果你做个投票，问人们是愿意维持现状，还是愿意让物价和工资及通胀水平回滚。

But I just say if you just take a vote, if you ask people, stay where you are today or roll prices back, your your wages and the inflation roll back.

我认为这个国家大多数人会投票选择回滚。

I think the majority of this country votes to roll it back.

你知道，我一直在想，显然技术将在我们的生活中占据更大比重，会有机器人，会有自动驾驶汽车，人工智能会做出天知道什么样的事情。

You know, I've been thinking as as obviously technology is gonna become a bigger part of our lives, and there's gonna be robots, and there's gonna be self driving cars, and AI is gonna do god knows what.

你知道电影《神秘村》吗？

You know the movie The Village?

当然知道。

Sure do.

我是不是和我爸爸在电影院看的来着？

I saw the did did see it in the theater with my dad?

是的。

Yeah.

百分之百确定。

100%.

是啊。

Yeah.

我和我妻子在影院看的。

My wife and I saw it in the theater.

那时我们还在约会，说实话，她比我先猜到了结局。

Think we were still dating at the time, and credit to her, she she predicted the ending before I did.

你觉得那是

Do you think That's one

我的一个...你知道，我不确定这是不是我的弱点，比如预测结局。

of my you know, I don't if that's a weakness of mine, like predicting the ending.

我有能力，但不会刻意去想。

I have but I don't do that in my brain.

我不会试图预测结局。

I don't try and predict the end.

好吧。

K.

我总在试图预测接下来会发生什么。

I constantly try to predict what's gonna happen.

这就是我的全部日常。

That's that's all I do.

我正在看孔雀平台上的那部关于查尔斯王子绑架案的剧集。

So I'm watching that the the Chiv Roy kidnapping show on Peacock.

我猜你太太肯定看过这部。

I'm sure your wife watched this.

感觉像是罗宾会追的剧。

It seems like a Robin show.

她确实看了。

She did watch it.

剧名叫《我们所有的秋天》。

Called All Our Fall.

好的。

Okay.

而且

And

别想好吧。

don't think Okay.

我不会提前考虑。

I don't think ahead.

但说回那个乡村生活的话题。

But do you getting back to the village thing.

就是说，这些人生活在现代，却决定像古人那样生活。

Like, it's these people who live in modern times, but they decide to go live like it's the olden days.

你觉得你能想象有人会那样做吗？

Do you think you could ever see someone like that?

比如说，听着。

Say like, listen.

我们要回到那个时代

We're gonna go back to when it like

是啊。

Yeah.

阿米什人。

The Amish.

你觉得人们会想那样做吗？

Like do you think people would wanna do that?

我觉得会...不。

I think there's gonna No.

有些人会去

Be people who are gonna go

什么？

What?

你不这么认为吗？因为你看现在大家都怀旧，我倒是很想给人们那种体验。

You don't think that some because you see all this nostalgia for the old I would love to give people that experience.

嘿，让你过一个月没有互联网的日子，看看你喜不喜欢。

Hey, for a month you're gonna live like it was pre Internet days and see how you like it.

你们那时候的技术，人们难道不会真心喜欢吗？你

The technology that you had back then, wouldn't people actually like it You

在现代社会无法生存，因为其他人都在用现代科技。

can't survive in the modern world because everybody else is using today's technology.

是啊。

Yeah.

不过我要打造我们自己的小镇。

But I'm gonna create our own little town though.

对吧？

Right?

好吧。

Okay.

就像《楚门的世界》或者像在

Like in the Truman Show or like in the

真正的真人秀里那样。

real reality show.

好吧。

Alright.

我们来稍微聊聊人工智能吧。

Let's talk about AI a little bit.

我觉得OpenAI明显是个做空目标，越来越多的证据表明，好产品和好生意之间是有区别的。

I feel like OpenAI is an obvious short, and the the the evidence keeps mounting that this is there's a difference between a good business and a good product.

让我问你个问题。

Let me ask you a question.

如果OpenAI上市后跌了40%，你会做空吗？

If OpenAI were public and it's down 40%, do you press the short?

我觉得这时候可能会，因为谷歌会抢走他们的饭碗——OpenAI是个好产品，但不是好生意。

I think at this point you might because I think Google's gonna eat their lunch because OpenAI, I think it's a good product, not a good business.

他们为什么还不卖广告？

Why aren't they selling ads yet?

听着，他们到底在等什么？

Like, what are they so so listen to this.

这是《华尔街日报》的报道。

This is from the Wall Street Journal.

由于与竞争对手之间激烈的抢人大战，OpenAI已经发放的股权激励远超其他科技公司。

OpenAI is already doing out far more stock based compensation than other tech companies owing to an intense talent war that is waging with its competitors.

该公司预计今年将为此支出60亿美元，几乎占其预期收入的一半。

The company expects to spend $6,000,000,000 this year on such costs, almost half of its projected revenue.

好吧。

Okay.

重复一遍。

Repeat that.

一半的收入都流向了员工股票期权。

Half of the revenue is going to employee stock options.

不在乎。

Don't care.

所以我我

So I I

我不认为这是一家经营良好的企业，而且我觉得这明显是个做空机会。

don't think this is a well run business, and I think I think this is an obvious short.

告诉我哪里错了。

Tell me I'm wrong.

好吧。

Okay.

我不会说你错了。

I won't tell you you're wrong.

让我们考虑一下问题的另一面。

Let let's just consider the other part of this.

这与早期企业有太多相似之处。

There are so many parallels to earlier businesses.

Facebook无法将社交变现。

Facebook can't monetize social.

Netflix做不到这一点。

Netflix can't do this.

你正在评估一个初创企业的业务。

You're evaluating the business of a baby business.

这很愚蠢。

It's foolish.

他们正处于建设阶段。

They're they're in building mode.

就像，他们根本还没到全面变现的阶段。

Like, they're not in they're not in the monetization at all ends mode.

我可以向你保证，他们自己都还不清楚业务方向。

I I can guarantee you they don't know what their business is yet.

而OpenAI未来的业务形态，今天根本还不存在。

And the OpenAI business, whatever it's going to be, does not exist today.

但你知道谁清楚吗？

But guess who does?

谷歌清楚。

Google does.

Meta也是。

Meta does.

这些公司早就心知肚明——听着，我们会在这些东西上疯狂投放广告。

Like, these companies already know, listen, we're gonna sell ads up the ass on this stuff.

我们不在乎。

We don't care.

他们为什么要那样做？

Why are they doing that?

他们终将如此。

They're going to be.

他们当然会——这毫无疑问。

There's no of course they're going to be.

眼下他们正全力打造市场上最顶尖的产品，而且他们正在胜出。

They're right now, they're trying to build the best product in the market and they're winning.

没错。

Yes.